Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Presidential Election Trends => Topic started by: A18 on October 09, 2004, 07:43:04 PM



Title: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: A18 on October 09, 2004, 07:43:04 PM
Where Republicans carry say, 44 states?

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(or more)


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: M on October 09, 2004, 07:43:48 PM
Both Rudy and Arnold could pull it off.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: A18 on October 09, 2004, 07:45:13 PM
Rudy Giuliani might alienate Christians


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: Pollwatch99 on October 09, 2004, 07:51:26 PM
I would define a landslide as 40 states.  If we defeat Kerry as I believe we will, next democratic opponent should be Hillary.  A republican strong on defense but socially moderate ( McCain, Rudy, Ridge, Colin Powell) could carry 40+ states against her.  Yes, we could alienate the more right wing part of our party with these candidates but to landslide, you need to take their base.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: A18 on October 09, 2004, 07:53:43 PM
If Hillary is the nominee, we should run a through-and-through Republican. It'll seriously be an easy 50-state win.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: Donovan on October 09, 2004, 07:55:55 PM
Both Rudy and Arnold could pull it off.

Rudy and Arnold are Republicans?


I thought Republicans were against Abortion and Gay rights. When did their platform change? When did Arnold get the Republican nomination for something?


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: Donovan on October 09, 2004, 07:59:43 PM
I would define a landslide as 40 states.  If we defeat Kerry as I believe we will, next democratic opponent should be Hillary.  A republican strong on defense but socially moderate ( McCain, Rudy, Ridge, Colin Powell) could carry 40+ states against her.  Yes, we could alienate the more right wing part of our party with these candidates but to landslide, you need to take their base.

Republicans would never nominate McCain or a Black Guy for President. They have had their chance to do both and win big in 1996 and 2000 and passed it up.

If common sense was present in the Republican Party, I would be supporting the party and there would be no need for the Democratic Party.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: WalterMitty on October 09, 2004, 08:32:50 PM
Both Rudy and Arnold could pull it off.

Rudy and Arnold are Republicans?


I thought Republicans were against Abortion and Gay rights. When did their platform change? When did Arnold get the Republican nomination for something?

let''s be honest.  do democrats support gay rights.

refresh my memory on the kerry/edwards position on gay marriage.  was it my imagination, or did kerry voice support for state amendments (like the one in missouri) to ban gay marriages.

what president signed the defense of marriage act into law?

dont give me this democrats are for gay rights bs.  the record shows otherwise.  they just conceal their bigotry better.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: A18 on October 09, 2004, 08:36:40 PM
Marriage is not bigotry


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: J-Mann on October 09, 2004, 08:38:36 PM
Republicans would never nominate McCain or a Black Guy for President. They have had their chance to do both and win big in 1996 and 2000 and passed it up.

If common sense was present in the Republican Party, I would be supporting the party and there would be no need for the Democratic Party.

Don't be so certain.  Powell had no interest in being president; he stated that on a lot of occasions, and I've got no reason to think that he really felt otherwise and was just being "held down by the man".  Don't forget that Republicans are a big-tent party, now.  The war on terror made a lot of people turn into hawks, regardless of their views on things like gays and abortions.  

And please don't try to turn this into a racial thing.  Democrats have also had their chances to nominate a black man and haven't done so, even though they claim to be the party of minorities.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: Gabu on October 09, 2004, 08:51:30 PM
Both Rudy and Arnold could pull it off.

Rudy and Arnold are Republicans?


I thought Republicans were against Abortion and Gay rights. When did their platform change? When did Arnold get the Republican nomination for something?

let''s be honest.  do democrats support gay rights.

refresh my memory on the kerry/edwards position on gay marriage.  was it my imagination, or did kerry voice support for state amendments (like the one in missouri) to ban gay marriages.

what president signed the defense of marriage act into law?

dont give me this democrats are for gay rights bs.  the record shows otherwise.  they just conceal their bigotry better.

Kerry and Edwards both feel that marriage should be between a man and a woman, but want the issue left up to the states and very strongly support civil unions as legal equals to marriage.  Bush, meanwhile, wants to ban everything at the federal level.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: WalterMitty on October 09, 2004, 09:12:05 PM
bush is wrong for wanting to ban it at the federal level.

kerry/edwards are just as wrong for wanting to ban it at teh state level.

civil unions?  is that some kind of consolation prize?  it reminds me a whole lot of 'separate but equal'


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: Gabu on October 09, 2004, 09:16:32 PM
bush is wrong for wanting to ban it at the federal level.

kerry/edwards are just as wrong for wanting to ban it at teh state level.

civil unions?  is that some kind of consolation prize?  it reminds me a whole lot of 'separate but equal'

They would only support a state ban if it included a legalization of civil unions.  Their main reason for supporting civil unions over same-sex marriage is because too many people dislike it when you call it a "marriage" (and that they don't personally like the idea, either).  Their idea of a civil union would basically be exactly the same as a marriage with regards to legal benefits, only not religious in nature and not called "marriage".

I would prefer that they voiced support of full same-sex marriage, but really, can you imagine what would happen if they did?


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: Donovan on October 09, 2004, 09:17:24 PM
bush is wrong for wanting to ban it at the federal level.

kerry/edwards are just as wrong for wanting to ban it at teh state level.

civil unions?  is that some kind of consolation prize?  it reminds me a whole lot of 'separate but equal'

I agree actually. I also think that Civil Unions is second citizenship. It is like trying to say, we are going to free the slaves, but they still won't be equal to the rest of population.
But, civil unions are step in the right direction. Just like getting rid of slavery was a step in the right direction.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: Gabu on October 09, 2004, 09:18:36 PM
bush is wrong for wanting to ban it at the federal level.

kerry/edwards are just as wrong for wanting to ban it at teh state level.

civil unions?  is that some kind of consolation prize?  it reminds me a whole lot of 'separate but equal'

I agree actually. I also think that Civil Unions is second citizenship. It is like trying to say, we are going to free the slaves, but they still won't be equal to the rest of population.
But, civil unions are step in the right direction. Just like getting rid of slavery was a step in the right direction.

As I said in my above post, civil unions, as they want them, would be exactly the same as marriage, only not called "marriage".  Given how many Americans are opposed to the idea of same-sex marriage, I think that their stance makes sense, really.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: Shira on October 09, 2004, 09:22:57 PM
I would define a landslide as 40 states.  If we defeat Kerry as I believe we will, next democratic opponent should be Hillary.  A republican strong on defense but socially moderate ( McCain, Rudy, Ridge, Colin Powell) could carry 40+ states against her.  Yes, we could alienate the more right wing part of our party with these candidates but to landslide, you need to take their base.

The land of fantasies and hallucinations


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 09, 2004, 09:24:36 PM
Giuliani could never win the nomination, if you honestly think the GOP would nominate someone who is against banning partial birth abortion you are one deluded soul. Plus he hasn't even hinted he has any plans of running, and the fact is if 9/11 hadn't happened anyone who mentioned him as a possible candidate would be laughed out of town.

Arnold is ineligible and if he was made eligible (which won't happen), plenty would still vote against him just on priniciple.

McCain won't run again (he's too old and is not in great health), the GOP had their chance to nominate him and they went with the moron who could barely speak English instead. You blew it.

Powell has no interest, is too old (isn't he going to be 71 in 2008 or something) and is too moderate to win the nomination anyway.

So basically in the near future it would only happen if we for some reason nominated Lyndon LaRouche, which we won't, so no. In the distant future, almost certainly, but there almost certainly will be a Democratic landslide again as well.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 09, 2004, 09:26:26 PM
and I am the only person who finds that Republicans are almost 100% certain who will run in 2008 a little ridiculous?

I've seen it all the time here, "In 2008 I'll be supporting ______" before anyone's even announced their intentions.

How many Democrats in 2000 at this point did you hear saying "If Gore loses I'll be supporting Kerry/Dean/Edwards in 2004"?


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: Donovan on October 09, 2004, 09:29:56 PM
bush is wrong for wanting to ban it at the federal level.

kerry/edwards are just as wrong for wanting to ban it at teh state level.

civil unions?  is that some kind of consolation prize?  it reminds me a whole lot of 'separate but equal'

I agree actually. I also think that Civil Unions is second citizenship. It is like trying to say, we are going to free the slaves, but they still won't be equal to the rest of population.
But, civil unions are step in the right direction. Just like getting rid of slavery was a step in the right direction.

As I said in my above post, civil unions, as they want them, would be exactly the same as marriage, only not called "marriage".  Given how many Americans are opposed to the idea of same-sex marriage, I think that their stance makes sense, really.

Separate but equal is not acceptable. Furthermore, it is not possible, that has been proven. There will be rights left out. Just refusing to call someone by the same name is disrespectful. You are saying that their love is not the same. I think that is wrong, and classifies people in society and generates social discrimination.
This is not about religion. Christians are not challenging the legitimacy of Jewish Marriages, or Atheist Marriages. This is about bigotry. Married people and single straight people think they are better, and their love is superior. It is that simple.
The reason that Kerry/Edwards take the Civil Unions stand is because Kerry would lose votes, and Edwards, I don't think gives a crap about the issue at all and was badly misinformed about DOMA, is taking his stand so he doesn't contradict Kerry as his VP.

Nonetheless, their position is 180 degrees in the direction of Bush and haters inc. of wanting to constitutionalize (not sure if that is word, but you know what I am saying) bigotry.
 


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 09, 2004, 09:34:59 PM
Kerry voted against DOMA
Bush supports the Federal Marriage Amendment

Bush and Kerry are the same on gay rights?


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: Donovan on October 09, 2004, 09:38:53 PM
Kerry voted against DOMA
Bush supports the Federal Marriage Amendment

Bush and Kerry are the same on gay rights?

180 degrees means the opposite direction. 360 degrees would be the same direction.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: Gabu on October 09, 2004, 09:53:09 PM
bush is wrong for wanting to ban it at the federal level.

kerry/edwards are just as wrong for wanting to ban it at teh state level.

civil unions?  is that some kind of consolation prize?  it reminds me a whole lot of 'separate but equal'

I agree actually. I also think that Civil Unions is second citizenship. It is like trying to say, we are going to free the slaves, but they still won't be equal to the rest of population.
But, civil unions are step in the right direction. Just like getting rid of slavery was a step in the right direction.

As I said in my above post, civil unions, as they want them, would be exactly the same as marriage, only not called "marriage".  Given how many Americans are opposed to the idea of same-sex marriage, I think that their stance makes sense, really.

Separate but equal is not acceptable. Furthermore, it is not possible, that has been proven. There will be rights left out. Just refusing to call someone by the same name is disrespectful. You are saying that their love is not the same. I think that is wrong, and classifies people in society and generates social discrimination.
This is not about religion. Christians are not challenging the legitimacy of Jewish Marriages, or Atheist Marriages. This is about bigotry. Married people and single straight people think they are better, and their love is superior. It is that simple.
The reason that Kerry/Edwards take the Civil Unions stand is because Kerry would lose votes, and Edwards, I don't think gives a crap about the issue at all and was badly misinformed about DOMA, is taking his stand so he doesn't contradict Kerry as his VP.

Nonetheless, their position is 180 degrees in the direction of Bush and haters inc. of wanting to constitutionalize (not sure if that is word, but you know what I am saying) bigotry.

Well, which do you want: a candidate that stands 100% for full same-sex marriage who will therefore have no chance in hell of winning or a candidate that stands for a compromise who does have a chance of winning?

Things like this need to be done incrementally or they will fail.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: Matusleo on October 10, 2004, 06:48:43 PM
and I am the only person who finds that Republicans are almost 100% certain who will run in 2008 a little ridiculous?

I've seen it all the time here, "In 2008 I'll be supporting ______" before anyone's even announced their intentions.

How many Democrats in 2000 at this point did you hear saying "If Gore loses I'll be supporting Kerry/Dean/Edwards in 2004"?

I honestly expect Jeb Bush to run and win the nomination, demonstrating that the GOP are completely without imagination.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: A18 on October 10, 2004, 06:58:35 PM
Jeb won't run in '08. I wouldn't be surprised to see him run for U.S. senator in 2006, though.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: Matusleo on October 10, 2004, 07:04:29 PM
Jeb won't run in '08. I wouldn't be surprised to see him run for U.S. senator in 2006, though.

I honestly don't see anybody in the Bush family running for a legislative seat anymore.  It is not in their character.  They are the sort who need to run things and be in charge. 

And like I said, I think it is perfectly plausible for Jeb to run for the GOP nomination in 2008.  After all, who else is there?  Sure, folks mention Guliani, but does anybody actually expect him to get any religious conservatives behind him?  He'll go in with big fanfare, and come out with very little.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: opebo on October 10, 2004, 07:06:32 PM
Jeb won't run in '08. I wouldn't be surprised to see him run for U.S. senator in 2006, though.

And like I said, I think it is perfectly plausible for Jeb to run for the GOP nomination in 2008.  After all, who else is there?  Sure, folks mention Guliani, but does anybody actually expect him to get any religious conservatives behind him?  He'll go in with big fanfare, and come out with very little.

Yeah, the christian right has complete control of who gets through the GOP presidential primary process.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: A18 on October 10, 2004, 07:09:27 PM
Giuliani and Bush are not the only two Republicans in existance.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: Matusleo on October 10, 2004, 07:22:20 PM
Giuliani and Bush are not the only two Republicans in existance.

True.  Any other GOPers who could likely run for President though?  The GOP doesn't tend to nominate people who aren't front and center.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: A18 on October 10, 2004, 07:24:35 PM
Any two-term governor would have a decent shot.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: Matusleo on October 10, 2004, 07:34:13 PM
Any two-term governor would have a decent shot.

And I expect we'll see quite a few of them run, but the GOP always plays favourites.  And if Jeb Bush is running, he'll be the favourite, and you know it.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: A18 on October 10, 2004, 07:40:29 PM
GOP voters will be sick of the Bush family by then.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: opebo on October 10, 2004, 07:44:28 PM
Is Jeb a 'Born Again' too?


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: A18 on October 10, 2004, 07:45:36 PM
He's a Christian, yes


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: Matusleo on October 10, 2004, 07:48:42 PM
GOP voters will be sick of the Bush family by then.

I'm sick of the Bush family now, but I guess I don't count as a GOP voter. ;-)


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: Nation on October 10, 2004, 07:54:55 PM
Possible candidates for the GOP...


For the very conservative, Bill Frist may run.

For the conservative, Bill Owens has been getting a lot of press.

For the moderate, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson could run and make it interesting. Mitt Romney could also run, or Pataki (who has actually hinted at running).

_________________________

For the very liberal, Dean is the only guy right now I think that may want to run again.

For the liberal,  Edwards seems to be the #1 choice right now. Hillary won't get the nomination.

For the moderate, Bill Richardson and Mark Warner are two potential candidates.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: Redefeatbush04 on October 10, 2004, 09:31:55 PM
Bill O'Reilly?


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 10, 2004, 10:02:42 PM
Jeb's a "Catholic", although I suspect that may be the case only to help with the Hispanic voters.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: Redefeatbush04 on October 11, 2004, 10:34:35 AM
I like Jeb.....but I am sick of the Bush family


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: ?????????? on October 11, 2004, 11:59:15 AM
Jeb's a "Catholic", although I suspect that may be the case only to help with the Hispanic voters.

Um BRTD Jebs wife is hispanic. Or have you forgotten?


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on October 11, 2004, 02:44:39 PM
No, because Republicans as they currently are, will never win the big states of CA, IL, and NY.  Nor will they win MD or RI or HI.  Hell, I don't see a republican winning Jersey for a long itme.  They add up to nearly 150 EVs.  I doubt will ever seen another Reagan landslide. 


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: ?????????? on October 11, 2004, 03:40:17 PM
No, because Republicans as they currently are, will never win the big states of CA, IL, and NY.  Nor will they win MD or RI or HI.  Hell, I don't see a republican winning Jersey for a long itme.  They add up to nearly 150 EVs.  I doubt will ever seen another Reagan landslide. 

And 80 years ago I would have said, "I can never see Republicans winning any southern state."


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: J-Mann on October 13, 2004, 01:37:58 AM
Jeb's a "Catholic", although I suspect that may be the case only to help with the Hispanic voters.

No, he's a convert because his wife is a Catholic.  She's the only "Hispanic voter" that had anything to do with his conversion.  That's ridiculous to claim that he did it for the votes.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: TomC on October 14, 2004, 05:34:27 PM
The South is staying Republican for several generations, as is the smallest of the western states. The GOP will certainly see a landslide like Bush against Dukakis, 40 states. The Christian Conservatives would really have to swallow their convictions to nominate the kind of Repub that could win the "Dukakis states." Of course, if we ever nominate a candidate as weak as Mondale again, we deserve to lose in a landslide.


Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: Gustaf on October 15, 2004, 05:47:26 AM
Depends on your definition...the current polarization makes a 49 state landslide unlikely, but a 40 state one is pretty likely. Also, CA can be won by a Republican I think.



Title: Re: Will there ever be a Republican landslide again?
Post by: No more McShame on October 16, 2004, 01:34:03 AM
Anything can happen in a generation.  California voted pretty consitently Republican until the 90s.  The South voted Democrat until the 60s.

As for 2008, I don't see Jeb Bush winning the nomination.  Natural American reflex against monarchy.  Giuliani, Pataki, and Romney are too liberal on social issues to have a shot at the nomination.  McCain may be too old even though he does seem healthy right now.  I could see someone like Gov. Owens winning the nomination.  Can he run for a 3rd term or is he term-limited?