Talk Elections

Looking at the maps, it seems odd why Jimmy Carter did so badly in the West.  With the obvious exception of Hawaii, Texas was the westernmost state he carried.  Why couldn't Carter pull off a win in CA?  Or Washington and Oregon, which both went for Humphrey and Dukakis?  Moreover, 1976 is the only time since New Mexico was admitted to the union that it failed to vote for whomever won the popular vote.  What gives?

What makes it even more unusual was the lack of Republican pull out West- Ford was a Midwesterner, and Dole was from Kansas- the safest of Republican states.  It wasn't like 2008, where both McCain and Palin could legitimately claim to be westerners.

Cause it was Jimmy Carter, one of the worst candidates/presidents ever.

So, explain Arkansas.

It's Arkansas, does it take more than that to explain it?  It's not exactly a template other states are held up to.

Great explanation bro, I want you to run the Republican campaign in 2012.

Yeah. And your post contributed so much more to the discussion.

This thread gets an F.

To answer your question, the West wasn't the least bit Democratic until the late 80s/early 90s.

And on a lot of issues Gerald Ford was more liberal than Christian Southern Democrat Jimmy Carter anyway.

I wouldn't say he tanked, exactly.  He came within two thousand votes in Oregon; two percent in California and New Mexico; and four percent in Washington.  The other Western states were still traditionally Republican at that time, and mostly still are.

In fact, Carter missed California and Oregon by very few points.

Better yet, why did Ford tank in the east? ;)

Southern state, and Carter was the Confederacy's Revenge.  Partly.

Also, it was a lot more Democratic at the time; Reagan barely won it in 1980.

All true. Ford simply ran the table, albeit narrowly, with all the western swing states. Gene McCarthey's quixotic liberal independent candidacy, while tiny nationwide, actually cost Carter Oregon, along with Iowa and probably Maine.

Also, the Democratic swing in the west didn't start picking up steam until 80's, when the religious right began scaring suburban swing voters (a process slowed somewhat by Reagan's broad popularity in the mid-80s). The west's voting population is far more hispanic now than in the 70's, another bad sign for long-term GOP resurgence in the region.

I finally agree with you

Take a look at the swings on all states between 1972 and 1976 elections, and observe the margins, rather than relying on responses that don't even attempt to answer the question (specifically ones by Alexander Hamilton).

In Election 1976, 39th president Jimmy Carter swung every state. He swung the popular vote  +25.21% for a win in unseating 38th president Gerald Ford by +2.06%. (In the previous, Election 1972, Republican incumbent and 37th president Richard Nixon destroyed Democratic challenger George McGovern by +23.15%.)

If you're not following: 1972 Nixon, with a 49-state rout against McGovern, had such high margins in states like California (Nixon: +13.46%; Ford: +1.78%; Carter swing +11.68%) and bellwethers Nevada (Nixon: +27.36%; Ford: +4.36%; Carter swing +23.01%) and New Mexico (Nixon: +24.49%; Ford: +2.47%; Carter swing +22.03%) to a point Carter didn't quite collapse those margins. Final result was that they were within reach for a pickoff by Carter. And for states topping at +5 percent (meaning not going +6 points and beyond), Carter was in reach of swinging more than 10 additional states to the additional 22 he gad flipped, for carriage of 23 (plus District of Columbia), they were worth 178 electoral votes that could have won him Election 1976 with 475 electoral votes.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html

Oregon didn't vote for Humphrey.

I don't know, but I would imagine it has something to do with Billy Beer.

He lost Oregon because he wasn't a social liberal and it was Gene McCarthy's best state.

A small reason was that Carter was a southerner and Ford was somewhat moderate and I am sure that brought some voters over to Ford that would have voted for Udall or Hart.

Pretty much.

Yup.

The country was also trending GOP in the mid/late 70s.  Watergate, and the fact that Carter was from the Deep South, temporarily messed up the political trends in 1976.  The West was particularly moving to the right, which became even more obvious in 1980.

Wrong. California only trended GOP in 1980 because of home state effect, and then West coast heavily trended dem during all the period.

The Carter campaign threw in the towel and pulled its ads in CA when polls showed him lagging badly (as best I can recall from 1976).  I think Ford's debate gaffe about Poland caused Carter's resurgence in CA, but all pre-election prognostications still had Ford carrying the state.

One can argue that the most effective Carter strategy was getting McCarthy ruled off the ballot in NY.  Had that legal maneuver failed, and had McCarthy done as well in NY as he did in MA, Ford might have prevailed in NY and won the election.

1976 Presidential Vote   Jimmy Carter      Gerald Ford      Eugene McCarthy      Electoral Vote   
State   Democrat   %   Republican   %   Independent   %   D   R
Alabama   659,170   55.73   504,070   42.61   99   0.01   9   
Alaska   44,058   35.65   71,555   57.90   0   0.00      3
Arizona   295,602   39.80   418,642   56.37   19,229   2.59      6
Arkansas   498,604   64.96   267,903   34.90   639   0.08   6   
California   3,742,284   47.57   3,882,244   49.35   58,412   0.74      45
Colorado   460,353   42.56   584,367   54.03   26,107   2.41      7
Connecticut   647,895   46.90   719,261   52.06   3,759   0.27      8
Delaware   122,596   51.98   109,831   46.57   2,437   1.03   3   
D of C   137,818   81.63   27,873   16.51   0   0.00   3   
Florida   1,636,000   51.93   1,469,531   46.64   23,643   0.75   17   
Georgia   979,409   66.74   483,743   32.96   991   0.07   12   
Hawaii   147,375   50.59   140,003   48.06   0   0.00   4   
Idaho   126,549   36.78   204,151   59.33   1,194   0.35      4
Illinois   2,271,295   48.13   2,364,269   50.10   55,939   1.19      26
Indiana   1,014,714   45.70   1,183,958   53.32   0   0.00      13
Iowa   619,931   48.46   632,863   49.47   20,051   1.57      8
Kansas   430,421   44.94   502,752   52.49   13,185   1.38      7
Kentucky   615,717   52.75   531,852   45.57   6,837   0.59   9   
Louisiana   661,365   51.73   587,446   45.95   6,588   0.52   10   
Maine   232,279   48.07   236,320   48.91   10,874   2.25      4
Maryland   759,612   52.75   672,661   46.72   4,541   0.32   10   
Massachusetts   1,429,475   56.11   1,030,276   40.44   65,637   2.58   14   
Michigan   1,696,714   46.44   1,893,742   51.83   47,905   1.31      21
Minnesota   1,070,440   54.90   819,395   42.02   35,490   1.82   10   
Mississippi   381,309   49.56   366,846   47.68   4,074   0.53   7   
Missouri   998,387   51.10   927,443   47.47   24,029   1.23   12   
Montana   149,259   45.40   173,703   52.84   0   0.00      4
Nebraska   233,692   38.46   359,705   59.19   9,409   1.55      5
Nevada   92,479   45.81   101,273   50.17   0   0.00      3
New Hampshire   147,635   43.47   185,935   54.75   4,095   1.21      4
New Jersey   1,444,653   47.92   1,509,688   50.08   32,717   1.09      17
New Mexico   201,148   48.07   211,419   50.53   1,161   0.28      4
New York   3,389,558   51.87   3,100,791   47.46   4,303   0.07   41   
North Carolina   927,365   55.24   741,960   44.19   780   0.05   13   
North Dakota   136,078   45.79   153,470   51.64   2,952   0.99      3
Ohio   2,011,621   48.92   2,000,505   48.65   58,258   1.42   25   
Oklahoma   532,442   48.75   545,708   49.96   14,101   1.29      8
Oregon   490,407   47.62   492,120   47.78   40,207   3.90      6
Pennsylvania   2,328,677   50.40   2,205,604   47.73   50,584   1.09   27   
Rhode Island   227,636   55.36   181,249   44.08   479   0.12   4   
South Carolina   450,807   56.17   346,149   43.13   289   0.04   8   
South Dakota   147,068   48.91   151,505   50.39   0   0.00      4
Tennessee   825,879   55.94   633,969   42.94   5,004   0.34   10   
Texas   2,082,319   51.14   1,953,300   47.97   20,118   0.49   26   
Utah   182,110   33.65   337,908   62.44   3,907   0.72      4
Vermont   80,954   43.11   102,085   54.37   4,001   2.13      3
Virginia   813,896   47.96   836,554   49.29   0   0.00      12
Washington   717,323   46.11   777,732   50.00   36,986   2.38      8
West Virginia   435,914   58.05   314,760   41.91   113   0.02   6   
Wisconsin   1,040,232   49.44   1,004,987   47.76   34,943   1.66   11   
Wyoming   62,239   39.81   92,717   59.30   624   0.40      3
Total   40,830,763   50.06   39,147,793   48.00   756,691   0.93   297   240

Wrong. California only trended GOP in 1980 because of home state effect, and then West coast heavily trended dem during all the period.
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I was referring to the mountain west, not the west coast.  Republicans also did well on the west coast in 1980 because the election was called for Reagan before polls closed in CA, OR, and WA.

As I read it the Ford campaign heavily targeted the West. Fords son was in the rodeo and campaigned for his father in states like Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Idaho, Washington etc. Betty Ford was sent to California on her own and was quite popular nationwide. This in addition to the entire west tending to favor the GOP in those days. Fords target to victory was the midwest and west while Carter targeted the East and South. Thus we see a tight electoral college and popular vote.

His son campaigned for him in Idaho and Arizona?  Those were safe for the GOP.

 I read old articles stating that he made a western swing which included safe and more vulnerable states at the time. The Ford campaign focused on the west and despite losing the national race it appeared to pay off in that region.