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1  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why does Oklahoma have so many registered democrats? on: Today at 03:45:43 pm
Oklahoma swung heavily Republican in 1960.  Stevenson lost the state by only 10 points in 1956 but JFK lost it by 18 4 years later.  Why was that?

Oklahoma is a heavily baptist state and probably didn't like the boston-accented kennedy.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: what type of person would you expect these two people to be (primary edition) on: January 14, 2017, 02:06:48 am
how about this guy

1972 - Ed Muskie
1976 - Jimmy Carter
1980 - Jimmy Carter
1984 - Walter Mondale
1988 - Joe Biden then Dick Gephardt
1992 - Bill Clinton
2000 - Al Gore
2004 - Dick Gephardt
2008 - John Edwards then Hilary Clinton
2016 - Bernie Sanders
3  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: what cultural events marked the end or beginning of a decade? on: January 11, 2017, 12:30:39 am
you could also argue that there is sort of a core and a crossover era:

Core 1940s: Pearl Harbor to Korea
Transition 40s-50s: Korean War
Core 1950s: end of Korea-1960 election
Transition 60s: JFK presidency
Core 60s: assassination of JFK to 1967 or so
Fringe 60s-70s: premier of smothers brothers/laugh-in in 67 or 68 to rural purge in 1971
Core 70s: rural purge in 1971 to 77/78 (i.e. new wave like talking heads, blondie, clash)
fringe 70s/80s - 77/78 to 1982 or so (i.e. van halen's first five albums)
Core 80s: 82 or 83 up until 89 or so
fringe 80s/90s (basically whenever REM was popular)
Core 90s - somewhere in the 91-92 school year up to 97 or 98 (when backstreet boys, nsync, usher come onto the scene)
Fringe 90s/00s - first through fifth grades more or less for me (I graduated from hs in 09 so do the math)
Core 00s - 01/02 up until the crash of 08
Fringe 90s/00s - Obama's first term more or less.
4  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / what cultural events marked the end or beginning of a decade? on: January 09, 2017, 05:30:39 pm
Beginning: election of Ike maybe
End: popularity of surf music

Beginning: see above. No one event but I think the 60s came into being from late 1961 through early 1963 with surf music and what not
End: Rural Purge on TV.

Beginning: Rural Purge on TV
End: Not sure. I would probably put it sometime in 1982 or 1983. Compare Van Halen's first four or five albums. By the time of there sixth album (1984) the 80s had totally taken over with synth and what not.

Beginning: see above
end: recession of 92 and election of clinton. But I would say guns and roses "November Rain" hitting #1 on the charts in February 92 was a good demarcation point

end: the 2001-2002 school year. 9/11 and if I remember right that's when boy band music started to fade.

beginning: late 2001 and 2002.
end: Huh
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / what democrats got what seats? on: January 05, 2017, 04:10:54 pm
I'm guessing Farr and Honda's approprations spot went to Swalwell and Peters while Steve Israel's spot went to Meng or Rice.

As far as Ways and Means - I'm guessing Rangel's seat went to Higgins maybe (as he's been on the committee before) and McDermott's seat went to Denny Heck's. Becerra's seat probably goes to someone like Ami Bera or Juan Vargas.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Does Alilson Grimes have a politcal future? on: January 02, 2017, 11:52:12 am
no, maybe she'll have a family though since she's running out of time.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: SC-5 special election: Vincent Sheheen for Congress? on: December 23, 2016, 03:11:31 pm
I love to think big, but this almost an R+10 district.

And not especially elastic to boot. "Normal" conservative Republican must win it without much difficulty. Only far-right winger may have some problems...

spratt won the seat 14 times.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: White Nationalist Richard Spencer May Run for Congress on: December 17, 2016, 01:50:37 pm
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / which is a more republican demographic? on: December 13, 2016, 02:03:53 pm
whites with college degrees making over 100K a year


whites without college degrees making under 50K a year

people talk about the divide between whites with degrees and those without but the problem is that you have a lot of rich people who didn't go to college (which is probably 75-25 GOP) and a lot of people with worthless college degrees who are also heavily dem so that kind of skews the picture.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / why hasn't Massachusetts and Maine published results by county? on: December 11, 2016, 04:02:34 pm
just wondering
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: John Glenn Dead at 95 on: December 08, 2016, 04:17:52 pm
I wish we had u.s. senators like that. The dude was an electoral superstar - he got over 60% in three of his elections (though only won by 8-9 in 1992 for some reason).
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / is Georgia polarizing on metro-outstate lines? on: December 07, 2016, 06:09:51 pm
I mean obviously race is the biggest factor but a secondary division seems to be the atlanta metro vs the rest of the state. Looking at old almanac of american politics - it seemed like the state's politics was more uniform than it is now. The democrats (John Flynt, Ed Jenkins) were basically all southern populists and the few republicans that existed ranged from chamber of commerce types (think johnny isakson) to ideology warriors (think ben blackburn).

But it seems there was no major disagreements within the state. Looking at the 1982 almanac of american politics it mentions that there was some thought that gingrich might be drawn out of office but that the dems in the legislature (they had around a 3-1 majority then) didn't care much for party labels.

Are we reaching a point where the atlanta metro becomes sort of a fifth column on the state?
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Dave's Redistricting App Screwed? on: November 26, 2016, 07:02:21 pm

is DRA still screwed come 11/30?
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If the Democrats were to "double-down" on their urban, elitist image... on: November 21, 2016, 11:32:46 pm
Lizzy Warren?
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: In Virginia, 2016 Congressional Candidates under-performed Clinton MASSIVELY on: November 19, 2016, 12:25:51 am
i have no idea why this is. Isn't Virginia an ancestrally dem state? We see all the time how someone like Pat Meehan or what have you in an ancestrally R, R+2 area, why can't the dems do the same in Virginia (which is now D+2)?
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: VA-2018: Kaine running on: November 17, 2016, 07:51:19 pm
easy 15 point win. Next.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Tim Ryan to challenge Nancy Pelosi for House Minority Leader on: November 17, 2016, 07:50:26 pm
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Why did Scott Garrett lose? on: November 16, 2016, 04:30:22 pm
anyone see a comparison to Phil Crane in 2004, Vince Snowbarger in 1998, Bill Baker in 1996 and Dan Frisa in 96? All were congresscritters from mainly suburban (and in Frisa's case urban) districts where they were all defeated for either being too conservative or because of character flaws (Phil Crane had a drinking problem)
19  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / theory on why new england votes dem on: November 05, 2016, 11:00:32 am
my view is that there was sort of a precursor to white flight going on in that part of the country. The yankees moved out to Ohio, Indiana, and even as far as Kansas during the 19th century and they were replaced by Italians, Portuguese, Irish etc who voted dem. Anyone here agree with this?
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: PREDICT: NJ-05 Garrett (R) vs. Gottheimer (D) on: November 01, 2016, 07:48:18 pm
It's an R+4 district and 89% non-hispanic white, there's more favorable targets for Dems than NJ-5.

Yeah, but Garrett is a sub par incumbent who is not a very good fit for the district, with its fairly big chunk of upscale zip codes.
At best he's connected to the Christopher Smith/RFayette moderate/populist economic types. If he can play that up and adopt the ideology of Smith and Walter Jones, he should be safe until 2022.

Garrett is a massive POS - a combo of Viguerie/Weyrich type views and pathological lying. I'd compare it to Crane vs Bean in 04.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Sen. Richard Burr privately jokes about gun owners shooting Clinton on: November 01, 2016, 10:20:19 am
Deplorable. He thinks this is the NC of the Jesse Helms era.

you mean when the dems always held the legislature?
22  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / death proofing juries on: September 30, 2016, 03:40:57 pm
anyone here think it might be unconstitutional? I know in Texas, they have a policy that in a case where the prosecution seeks the DP, you have to say that you support the DP to get on the jury. If pro-DP people are more likely to convict someone than anti-DP people (I'm not sure that's the case, but lets assume so) - isn't that giving defendants a bad hand in the guilt phase?
23  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: just saw Fast Times at Ridgemont High on: September 19, 2016, 08:12:20 pm
One of the most famous topless scenes in movie history.

I actually was surprised when I saw it the second time. I had forgotten that she didn't actually take her top off but it was a fantasy by Brad - only to have her come back into the house and catch him whacking off.
24  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / just saw Fast Times at Ridgemont High on: September 19, 2016, 03:18:40 pm
hadn't seen the movie in a while. The biggest thing I noticed is that Spicoli is really only a side character and the crux of the movie is about the inner circle of Brad and Stacy Hamilton. Although the movie is seen as one of the best 80s movies - does anyone here sort of notice a residual 70s feel to it? When I think of the 80s, I think of crack cocaine, and music like guns-n-roses or bon-jovi. None of that stuff seems to have fully settled in and they didn't even mention mtv during the movie.

25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Your opinion of this parody of The Young Turks? on: September 16, 2016, 04:40:57 pm
sargon chimes in - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WV4pHtKe6ZE
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