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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WI Senate 2018 - What are Baldwin's chances, and who will run against her? on: July 19, 2017, 04:03:57 pm
I'd put it around likely D. Some of you will say that "times are different" but WI D incumbent senators have done quite well in past outparty midterms

2006: Kohl 67.31%
1982: Proxmire 63.6%
1974: Nelson 61.8%
1970: Proxmire 70.8%
1958: Proxmire (only a semi-incumbent) 57.1%

if Baldwin can't win by a solid amount in a strong dem year against a sh**t opponent, then she should probably be primaried in 2024 if she doesn't retire.
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / anyone know how to make this work? on: June 27, 2017, 12:25:02 am
nothing shows up when i click this link. Maybe I need a new flash plugin?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/nation/census/2010/
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / secular vs real gains downballot on: June 16, 2017, 01:31:22 am
what percentage of republican gains downballot have been actual gains (i.e. picking up difficult territory) as opposed to winning areas they should have been winning all along?

To me, republican downballot success has been sort of like the Flynn effect in intelligence. IQs have been rising for a century but sociobiologists have predicted (and so far are mostly right) that after a certain amount of time, all the secular gains will have been exhausted, and IQs will continue to decline.

The 2018 election to me seems to be like the first real election where both parties seem to have exhausted there secular gains.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Nancy Pelosi's successor? on: May 22, 2017, 06:25:41 pm
anyone like the idea of Richard Neal?
5  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: songs that sound like someone else on: May 02, 2017, 07:49:34 pm
anyone think "home sweet home" by motley crue sounds like styx?
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: anyone agree that conservative and liberal are contextual? on: April 20, 2017, 03:41:00 pm
The idea that conservatism in Massachusetts isn't particularly nationalistic is ludicrous.

i'm not saying it wouldn't be nationalistic - but it would have an urban, foul-mouthed townie aspect to it as opposed to the "America f-ck yeah" vibe to someone like Loesch or Erickson.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / anyone agree that conservative and liberal are contextual? on: April 20, 2017, 01:57:26 pm
For instance, I think that the political structure in britain wouldn't easily translate to the united states because there isn't a lot of rural areas or not as many in britain.

From what I know - a state like Massachusetts would be most comparable to Britain. Conservatism in somewhere like Massachusetts, for instance, is not quite the same thing as that in Missouri. Conservatism in Massachusetts would most likely be that in the context of an ethnic Irish/Italian working class area and doing what they can to defend such area (similar to Britain).

The more embarassing type of conservatism in the united states is what I call americultism. The most visible proponents of this would be Dana Loesch, Eric Ericson and Glenn Beck. Because somewhere like Britain or RI/MA/CT is not very rural - that type of conservatism would mostly be DOA there.

It's kind of hard for me to explain - but does anyone sort of get what I'm saying?
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Most dense/urban CDs for Trump on: March 28, 2017, 12:47:09 am
New York 11th (Donavan - R) Staten/Island    10,959.0/sq mi
New York 2nd   (P. King - R) Long Island    3,961.5
Texas 24th    (Marchant - R) Dallas     2,968.4
Arizona 5th (Biggs - R) Phoenix         2,689.9
Georgia 6th (Was T. Price - R) Atlanta    2,442.2
Texas 2nd   (Poe - R)  Houston            2,441.7
Georgia 7th (Woodall - R) Atlanta       2,048.6
Michigan 11th (Trott - R) Detroit         1,718.7
Texas 3rd (S. Johnson - R) Dallas        1,704.4
Missouri 2nd (Wagner - R) St. Louis      1,647.9

Most of these had a strong swing to Hillary.

Interesting that Arizona has one on this list and one of the Least dense/Most rural mainly white CDs to vote for Hillary list.


what's with your Maloney avatar? I mean you've had it for like six years. Seems kind of creepy.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Well, looks like Burr is going to pull this out on: March 22, 2017, 02:29:32 pm
what I don't get is - if Kay Hagan only narrowly lost in the bad year of 2014 - couldn't the dems win it in a slightly better year of 2016.

Granted, Hagan was an incumbent and whoever would challenge Burr is not - but still. Someone like McIntyre, Shuler, or even Easley would have been better.
10  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / how come Peter Cetera won't talk about his time in Chicago? on: March 22, 2017, 02:23:03 pm
It seems like he's refused to give interviews about his time in the band (and he was in the band for 17 years). He declined to be interviewed for the CNN special they did in January and also didn't show up at the hall of fame ceremony. Even more surprising, he declined an interview with Terry Kath's daughter (who was only two when her father killed himself).

What's your view on why he won't discuss it? Is he under some sort of gag order - or is he the passive-aggressive/petty person I always assumed he was?
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Steve King openly promoting white supremacy on: March 13, 2017, 11:49:54 am
there's a difference between quoting Spencer, Taylor and the like - and just saying garden variety nationalist stuff that Bannon or Coulter have been saying for years.
12  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: songs that sound like someone else on: March 03, 2017, 04:46:35 pm
I've always thought that "Come a Little Closer" by cage the elephant sounds like oasis.
13  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / songs that sound like someone else on: February 28, 2017, 05:42:45 pm
I'll name some

"Africa" by Toto - sounds like Men at Work
"Magic" by Pilot - sounds like ELO
"Horse with No Name" by America - sounds like Neil Young
"Lonely is the Night" by Billy Squier - sounds like Led Zeppelin
"Photograph" by Def Leppard - first time I heard it, I thought it was either Boston or Foreigner
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Worst-run Presidential Campaign on: February 25, 2017, 04:24:37 pm
thought I would bump this slightly older than eleven years old thread
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: WI-Magellan (R): Baldwin +13 over Duffy, +14 over Clarke on: February 24, 2017, 04:12:44 pm
don't forget that this seat hasn't voted republican since 1952.

And Heitkamp's and Manchin's seats haven't voted Republican since 1956. Does that mean they are safe?

1958 for Heitkamp and 1928 for Manchin. Still not analagous. Those are fairly red states while Wisconsin basically has an EVEN PVI. If Kohl could get 58% in 1994 - why couldn't Baldwin win by a lot if Trump is very unpopular in 2018?
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: WI-Magellan (R): Baldwin +13 over Duffy, +14 over Clarke on: February 24, 2017, 04:03:57 pm
don't forget that this seat hasn't voted republican since 1952.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: what state has a surprisingly on: February 17, 2017, 03:36:27 pm
From my anecdotal dealings-
Democrats that are too liberal for their state: The majority of the Texas Democrat Party

i find that interesting since it wasn't all that long ago that people like Chet Edwards and Max Sandlin were in office

From my anecdotal dealings-
Republicans surprisingly moderate: Mississippi. This may shock some folks but the Mississippi GOP is not as conservative as people think.

the people in MS are temperamentally conservative but they're not CFGers. They're still big into pork (see Thad Cochran)
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: what state has a surprisingly on: February 17, 2017, 02:49:58 pm
I don't understand the question.

basically four questions:

what state democratic party is relatively liberal given how red the state is (i.e. utah democrats)
what state gop is relatively conservative given how blue the state is (i.e. california gop)
what state democratic party is relatively moderate-to-conservative given how blue the state is (i.e. RI dems)
what state republican party is pretty moderate-to-liberal given how red the state is (i.e. KS GOP)
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: what state has a surprisingly on: February 17, 2017, 02:47:23 pm
Massachusetts Legislative GOP is quite conservative. Mainly because they never matter. The Dems own the state leg, and are really two parties

Union/WWC/Centrist/DLC types (Stephen Lynch)
Progressive/Academic/POC types (Liz Warren)

surprised by that. I thought Charlie Baker (who never really endorsed Trump) is a typical Massachusetts repub.
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / what state has a surprisingly on: February 17, 2017, 02:38:49 pm
liberal/moderate democratic party and conservative/moderate gop vis-a-vis the state?

I'd say:
Utah democrats
rhode island democrats
california gop
kansas gop
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6? Can Democrat Jon Ossoff win in the special election? on: February 14, 2017, 11:31:54 pm
anyone here think he kind of has that numale pajama-boy look to him? I'd vote for him but remember, this is Georgia - not New Jersey.
22  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: why has Kansas traditionally had a visible moderate wing in there GOP? on: February 12, 2017, 11:21:51 pm
The "moderates" would have been right-wing Republicans 30 years ago, like Bob Dole.

i always assumed that a stereotypical Kansas moderate would not be bob dole but someone like NL Kassebaum.
23  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: why has Kansas traditionally had a visible moderate wing in there GOP? on: February 12, 2017, 09:59:56 pm
Quote from:  link=topic=258677.msg5519953#msg5519953 date=1486842530
I think to some extent this has always existed because many Republicans early on in KS were of Yankee stock, and the type of Republican that lives in some areas still reflects this early origin. The geographic lines are more blurred now but this was the dynamic.

I always assumed that Kansas, like most of the neighboring states, were settled by the scots-irish.
24  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / why has Kansas traditionally had a visible moderate wing in there GOP? on: February 11, 2017, 01:49:32 pm
I mean compared to the states that border it - it kind of stands out. Also, are the moderates in the local republican party a mostly rural phenomenon or is it a mostly urban/suburban one (i.e. inside the 435)?
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: This is why I do not like rematches: on: January 31, 2017, 07:03:23 pm
Adlai Stevenson learned this very well. The person who lost can still run for the office again, just not against the same person who you lost to last time.

Yup! Look at what happened with Russ Feingold.

That is why I am not buying into the Jason Kander Roy Blunt rematch in 2022. If Kander is smart he would try to for governor in 2020 or even attorney general. Incredibly Josh Hawley is already creating controversy.

Long shot but I would be interested to see if Jason Kander could compete in MO-02 if open. Though he is from the other side of the state so that could obviously be an issue even if Representatives need not live in the district they represent.

feingold would have won in a 2012 or better type of year
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