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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: One thing we donít know about Hillary on: April 04, 2013, 03:59:18 pm
On the other hand ... Hillary came as close as any loser in the modern era to winning a major party nomination with Mark Penn, and there's no candidate remotely as strong as Barack Obama this time around. I agree that Penn's terrible, but this seems like the stuff that matters on the margins rather than in tens of percents.
2  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Personal Top 5/Bottom 5 Major League Baseball Teams on: April 04, 2013, 03:55:55 pm
I absolutely despise the Cardinals, partly because the '06 Mets and '12 Nats are two of the only playoff teams I've ever card about, but also because of the awful, all-American, greatest fans in baseball, Joe Buck vibe they've got going. Oh, and La Russa managed them for most of my lifetime. And you've gotta hate La Russa.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why is Truman regarded better than LBJ? on: March 31, 2013, 10:55:16 am
Circumstance, more than anything else. LBJ carried out Truman's containment policy in Vietnam -- I don't think we can say conclusively Truman would've behaved much differently from Johnson in the foreign policy realm. Truman just had the fortune to oversee an unpopular war during a time when myriad cultural and social factors weren't conspiring to make that unpopular war the symbol of everything supposedly wrong with the American establishment. I think if Truman were president in the late '60s he'd have suffered largely the same fate.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is it just me or this cycle starting off very fast? on: March 31, 2013, 10:50:02 am
I think the GOP wants to start now because the status quo would lose the House in 2014.  They need to become the new GOP well ahead of 2016.

Does the status quo also redistrict before 2014?
5  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: 2012-2013 Club Soccer/Football Discussion Thread on: March 31, 2013, 10:45:55 am
Rafa clearly would rather add a relatively meaningless trophy to his personal collection than guide Chelsea into fourth. Which, of course, makes perfect sense for him, and is probably our just reward for perpetual insecurity at manager. But we may very well finish fifth now, which would be somewhat disastrous.
6  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Herman Cain endorses: We the people on: January 19, 2012, 11:49:20 pm
I think he actually is angling for a job at Time.
7  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: NFL 2011 Season Discussion on: January 18, 2012, 07:45:01 pm
Yeah, I would say another loss in the Super Bowl is kind of a "reverse Elway": Remembered for losing his last two rather than winning his first three.

I mean, legacy's an inherently stupid thing to talk about, because it's about how nitwit fans perceive things rather than any sort of objective look at what things actually happened. But this is especially stupid. If anything, the post-Super Bowl title years have enhanced Brady's legacy; he's no longer just the Bill Russell, "all he does is win" benefactor of great defenses and teams around him. He's long had the championships; the last five years have given him the stats. He's pretty damn historically secure.
8  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: NFL 2011 Season Discussion on: January 18, 2012, 05:10:07 am
Brady's legacy will be damaged heavily if he loses to Manning and the Giants yet again.

Seriously? His legacy is damaged if he reaches yet another Super Bowl? He'd still be 3-2 in that tiny sample size.
9  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Could he be the most awkward man alive? on: January 18, 2012, 04:59:25 am
Newt's PAC's got a $5 million ad buy ... they can't include this, somewhere, somehow?
10  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: NFL 2011 Season Discussion on: January 09, 2012, 04:45:29 pm
I could see the Patriots' pass defense giving up 300 yards next week.

...and still winning by 14.
11  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Santorum booed in NH after gay marriage remarks on: January 06, 2012, 05:11:35 pm
The video was actually pretty fun to watch -- give the man credit, he's not just ignoring potentially hostile audiences or sticking to talking points. He has to know the minute he talks about gay marriage to a college crowd that's the storyline coming from the event.
12  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Santorum and Co. not running away from 2006 loss. on: January 06, 2012, 01:32:47 am
The notion that the 2006 loss somehow disqualifies him has always seemed fairly absurd. Romney's lost more elections than Santorum, anyway.
13  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Vast Right Wing Conspiracy meets in Texas to decide on an anti-Romney on: January 05, 2012, 07:04:02 pm
If the group reaches a consensus, does it even much matter? It's not like Gingrich is going to drop out because a bunch of evangelicals told conservatives to go vote for Santorum.
14  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: CNN sez Perry is not dropping out, and will campaign in SC this weekend on: January 04, 2012, 12:37:42 pm
Welp, looks like Romney will take South Carolina.
15  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Can Romney defeat Obama? on: January 04, 2012, 12:35:42 pm
Explain how Santorum outperformed George W. Bush by 6 points in 2000 but would lose Arizona by 10.
16  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Can Romney defeat Obama? on: January 04, 2012, 12:30:56 pm
To the general electorate (i.e. NOT conservative Iowa Republicans), Romney essentially is "Generic Republican." And I think "Generic Republican" certainly stands a decent chance in this economy.
17  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: NFL 2011 Season Discussion on: January 02, 2012, 09:06:05 pm
how crazy bad is Belichick rooting for Cincy this weekend??
One-tenth as crazy bad as Harbaugh is rooting for Houston.
18  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Tomorrow, it's for Sarah Maria. on: January 02, 2012, 09:01:04 pm
Yeah, that's a stupid little poster that really hurts the case of everyone who wants to just laugh at what's a pretty funny picture. Not all laughter is malicious, although clearly some of those laughing are.
19  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Would Santorum be doing better if he hadn't lost to Casey in 06? on: December 25, 2011, 09:10:32 pm
He'd probably be setting himself up to lose in 2012, since he'd really struggle to tack back toward the center in his re-election campaign. But, of course he'd be doing better. High-profile sitting senators generally aren't completely ignored when they run for things.
20  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Official 2011-2012 Club Soccer/Football thread on: December 16, 2011, 05:36:37 pm
So long as AVB doesn't continue to sink Chelsea with this "attacking football" crap, I think we can make a decent run before getting absolutely annihilated by one of the Spanish teams.
21  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Most annoying moderators on: December 16, 2011, 05:32:39 pm
On a positive note, Maria Bartiromo was awesome.
22  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: NFL 2011 Season Discussion on: November 19, 2011, 11:33:49 am
How many Super Bowl rings did those "Philadelphia teams" get you?
23  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: MLB Offseason Thread on: November 12, 2011, 05:09:49 pm
How much offense could the Phillies have bought for $50 million?
24  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: ESPN SportsNation Maps. on: November 05, 2011, 01:32:31 pm
I like that Cutler wins both Illinois and Colorado. Then again, America has long shown it doesn't really believe "likability" and "law-abiding" are synonyms.
25  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Romney faces decision time on Iowa on: November 05, 2011, 01:29:15 pm
I don't know the extent to which George H.W. Bush tried to win Iowa, but he lost to Bob Dole 37-19 and did quite fine after that.

Here's the question that matters: Which candidate can win Iowa AND pose a long-term threat to Romney? The two "on the rise" candidates in Iowa, Cain and Gingrich, appear hamstrung by their complete lack of organization in the state. Bachmann and Santorum can't compete with Romney outside of Iowa. Perry leaving Iowa with the win and the momentum would be rough for Romney -- but I'm not sure Romney would be terribly successful running an anti-Perry campaign in Iowa. Better to leave that to everyone else.
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