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November 28, 2014, 06:56:34 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Which should Democrats focus most on? on: November 26, 2014, 08:32:45 am
just turnout
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Why is Iowa not a red state? on: November 26, 2014, 08:27:28 am
It is interesting that Romney got above 60 percent in most northern Missouri counties sometimes up to 70 percent in certain counties then right across the border in southern Iowa he fails to hit 53 percent in most of them. It is weird how just across the state line it goes from very Republican to barley Republican. Anyone not on an ego trip have any explainations?

The state line between IA and MO is pretty clear from a religious standpoint:


Well if we just went by demographics and voting patterns alone, Iowa would be a red state and Mississippi would be in play.

There must be some other factor into this one, perhaps Iowa isn't a big Evangelical state like Kansas or Nebraska. It also has more medium sized cities than Kansas or Nebraska.

Iowa has plenty of Evangelicals but it also has plenty of Illinois-style Catholics and Minnesota-style Lutherans.

True. The ELCA population in NE IA is a lot like MN, and is more Dem Leaning. NE IA and W WI are both more like MN. W IA is more like NE and KS.






thank you for those wonderful maps Smiley


i search a map like this BUT with addition of all protestant churchs, for seeing where are the strong places of catholics (because the division of protestants make catholics falsely too strong in the first map here)

3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2014's fake victory of republicans on: November 26, 2014, 08:22:24 am
(i use "republican" because "GOP" annoying me. Dem are older than rep !)


some elements make me think than this numeral victory of the republicans will be a cause of deception for 2016

-number of votes : very behind the 2010 score. Conclusion : there is no wave for republicans but most simply, dem stay home. More : rep lost more vote than democrats (-5,4 M for rep, -4,9 for dem)

-local referendum : even in republicans states, people vote in a majority for traditionnal dem patterns, like minimal wage.



conclusion : except a world war or pandemic, the democrate candidate in 2016 WILL win the white house

1.) True Demographics favor Dems in Presidential Elections. Udall would still be a US Senator by not by that of a margin victory wise despite running a horrible campaign.

2.) Dems stayed home-The problem is you don't win many elections win you lose Indies by 8 and the GOP managed to keep the Dem Victory with so-called "Moderates" to 9 points. I think as long as the Republicans can keep the Dems victory  margin with "Moderates" to 10-11 points they will have a good shot at winning. If the Republicans lose "Moderates" by 15 points like Mitt Romney the R's lose.

3.) True local referendums favored Dems but the GOP ran better candidates but The GOP candidates were younger and more optimistic than the Dem candidates in my opinion.


your 2) point is interresting. But hillary is more moderate than obama, no ? So mayby she could bring back moderate ?
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2014's fake victory of republicans on: November 26, 2014, 08:20:58 am
Kindly switch your avatar to red

I think I've seen you do this multiple times.  People will have whatever avatar they like.  You seem to be obsessed with what color everyone's avatar is.  Get over yourself, we don't all support a political party and asking a foreigner to have the avatar of a U.S. political party is stupid.


in fact, i'm strongly right-wing, but not in american way. Gaullist, if you see, strongly statist, nationalist, protectionnist, no-interventionnist


so you can understand than, if I was american, it would be difficult to me to choice between economically liberals republicans and socially leftist democrats Wink

(but i think, honestly, that at the end of the day, i would have choice democrats, for the miniml wage)
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2014's fake victory of republicans on: November 26, 2014, 08:17:28 am
i notice than no one democrat write on this thread. Help me, i'm surrounded by evil republicans Grin
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: National swing of states 2004-2012 on: November 25, 2014, 06:08:47 am
2004-2012 or 2004-2014 update, for the maps ?
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / 2014's fake victory of republicans on: November 25, 2014, 06:07:21 am
(i use "republican" because "GOP" annoying me. Dem are older than rep !)


some elements make me think than this numeral victory of the republicans will be a cause of deception for 2016

-number of votes : very behind the 2010 score. Conclusion : there is no wave for republicans but most simply, dem stay home. More : rep lost more vote than democrats (-5,4 M for rep, -4,9 for dem)

-local referendum : even in republicans states, people vote in a majority for traditionnal dem patterns, like minimal wage.



conclusion : except a world war or pandemic, the democrate candidate in 2016 WILL win the white house
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Elections 1848-2010 on: November 17, 2014, 02:20:31 pm
To upkeep this thread, I'll post a few maps of the EP results by constituency:



And a very telling map of a PS shellacking





have you the same maps but with numbers ending by 0 or 5 ?
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: November 17, 2014, 02:14:05 pm
I luuuv Austria 'cause they make polls very oftenly

but austrian polls are so boring...always the same 24/28 % for the 3 GP ^^
10  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Maps of Current State Houses and Senates on: November 16, 2014, 04:28:07 pm
edit : minnesota house turning blue Huh god shakes ! what happened ?

We still have super-awesome majorities in Hawaii's Legislature!

^^

if I could find were are those f*** smileys, i will have give you a mistergreen laugh
11  Forum Community / Survivor / Re: SURVIVOR: Countries of the Americas on: November 16, 2014, 04:16:30 pm
Antigua and Barbuda
Argentina
Bahamas
Barbados
Belize
Bolivia
Brazil
Canada
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Cuba safe until Round 5
Dominica
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador
Grenada
Guatemala
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Jamaica
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
St. Kitts & Nevis
St. Lucia
St. Vincent & the Grenadines
Suriname
Trinidad & Tobago
United States
Uruguay safe until Round 5
Venezuela

Round 1: Vote to eliminate three countries in a 3-2-1 voting formation. Vote to save one country (saving a country gives them -3 points). Round 1 will last 48 hours.


colombia
haiti
canada


12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Romania 2014 - 2/16 November 2014 on: November 16, 2014, 04:11:17 pm
*****BREAKING NEWS*****



ponta admit defeat. (france 24 info)
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Maps of Current State Houses and Senates on: November 16, 2014, 03:47:14 pm
how could it be possible that GOP had washington senate ? I had always think than this state was a stronghold dem Huh




edit : minnesota house turning blue Huh god shakes ! what happened ?
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Romania 2014 - 2/16 November 2014 on: November 16, 2014, 03:41:02 pm
Some 1st round maps:

By province:








make me think about the poland map : autro-hugrian part and ottoman part of romania are perfectly showed here, as russia part/german part was in the polish map
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 05, 2014, 10:49:08 pm
How did Owsley County, KY - the poorest county in America - vote?

68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes

lol


americain people...

Ah, so wonderfully stereotypical.


stereotypicals are statistically more true than wrong Wink
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 05, 2014, 10:33:08 pm
So uh, Pryor is currently losing 39-57. Looks like he got Blanched after all

It's pretty amazing how Pryor, Landrieu, Grimes, Tennant, Nunn are all posting Obama-esque numbers in these states. Very, very grim. To Appalachia, (D) = Obama now.

The Senate map is basically the presidential map from 2012. It's terrifying. We can't win the senate if we can only win blue states.



RED states

don't forgot the wise rule of uselectionsatlas Wink
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 05, 2014, 08:01:12 pm
How did Owsley County, KY - the poorest county in America - vote?

68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes
I know this is not nice to say, but if they knew their head from their Inks, they wouldn't be so damn poor. Poor people, more than others, really buy into the ignorant identity politics crap that the GOP excels at.




that's true, but not completely


dem offers to poors obviously better economics and social policy than rep

but WITH that, they are for minorities quotas, LGBT's stuff, pro-immigration, against death penalty


a party with join dem economics (welfare state, obamacare -or something like obamacare-, winimum wage, fight against debt) and the societal points I was speak about, this party would easily win all elections


but that's for not have such party than bipartism is on place...
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 05, 2014, 07:44:11 pm
How did Owsley County, KY - the poorest county in America - vote?

68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes

lol


americain people...
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: the high problem of the geographic cut of congr. district on: November 05, 2014, 06:51:38 pm
thank for the answer Smiley
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / the high problem of the geographic cut of congr. district on: November 05, 2014, 06:44:36 pm
i have read than republican have cut those district to make unpossible a victory of DP in house of representative elections


the vicious result is than in a large majority of districts, the game is played before the day. A tons of unbeatable republican districts, another (but less) ton of unbeatable democratic districs.


So people of the political minority of those districs don't vote because they know the winner before the election



my question : is there a possibility of re-cutting the districts, to make them coherent geographically and less or more equal in terms of population ?




(please, forgive my bad english)
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: November 05, 2014, 06:38:06 pm
No map ? Sad

One of the occasional posters here has done this

http://www.electoralgeography.com/new/ru/countries/u/ukraine/ukraina-vybory-v-verxovnuyu-radu-2014.html

Mind it, it is still preliminary. There are still a few polling places in Donetsk that have not been, technically, counted: mainly, as I understand, due to concerns about local ballot stuffing.


thanks Smiley
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: November 02, 2014, 01:05:09 pm
No map ? Sad
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 04:01:22 pm
Popular Front isn't that tough.


have you see the youtube video when the PF of the parliament cry because deputies didn't vote the recognition of fighters of stepan bandera as ukrainian heroes ? Seems for me this is not a very "classical liberal pro-UE" way of thinking Wink
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 01:38:34 pm
end of the day : awful result for porochenko, very good results for all nationalists wings (from pro-UE moderate to fascists). Donetsk will be bring back home soon.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 01:36:19 pm
based on the 69.71% reporting :

pro-russian (OP, SU, KPU) : 16.81
moderate pro-ukraine (PB, HP) : 24.57
tough pro-ukraine (PF, BT, SP) : 38.57
nationalists pro-ukraine (RS, SV, RP) : 13.97


Unknowed wing : 6,08%


(dunno where to place agrairian union)
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