Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 08, 2016, 09:16:22 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 576
1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who won the ABC debate? on: February 07, 2016, 02:20:45 pm
Christie and then Kasich.  Cruz came across as not a complete psychopath, so that should help him out a bit too. 
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: New Virginia U.S House maps on: February 05, 2016, 03:17:01 pm
Forbes won by 60% when Obama narrowly carried the district in 2008.  This will be a very difficult  for him to win this new district, but whether it is Safe D depends on whom they put up against him.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / NH demographic maps on: February 05, 2016, 12:36:24 am
Some maps I made that I thought would be interesting to look at in terms of the upcoming primary:

 
 
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ex-NAACP leader Ben Jealous to endorse Sanders on: February 04, 2016, 05:59:35 pm
How many black voters could tell you who Ben Jealous is without googling it? Wake me up when Sanders gets a Beyonce endorsement.

Did you realize many black voters care about actual political issues, and might put more stock in the thoughts of a leader of the NAACP than some pop singer?
5  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinions of Karl Marx, Charls Darwin, and Sigmund Freud on: February 04, 2016, 12:38:46 pm
I'd say they created new faiths in place of those they supplanted.

Marx - from faith in spirit and classical economics, to faith in historical materialism and class struggle
Darwin - from faith in design and special creation, to faith in the productivity of evolution and natural processes
Freud - from faith in human rationality, to faith in the power of the unconscious and underlying sexual psychology
6  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Evil or Not #17: Westboro Baptist Chruch on: February 04, 2016, 12:24:19 pm
They're cartoonish evil.  "God hates the world and all it's children la la la"
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Have you ever been to a Walmart? on: February 04, 2016, 12:20:57 pm
I lost my Walmart virginity to a girl I liked during college

At least you didn't lose your virginity in a Walmart.  That'd be pretty sad.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: "Moderate" Rubio attacks Obama for speaking at a mosque on: February 03, 2016, 11:52:35 pm
Rubio said it was what Obama said there, not the fact that he went.  How he characterizes Obama's remarks as divisive I have no clue.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio is more hawkish than Graham? on: February 03, 2016, 10:07:39 pm
Rubio voted against the AUMF in Syria in 2013, which was supported by Graham, so that's one obvious way he is less hawkish.  There's def some problems with that list.

Of the remaining candidates, I'd say he's perhaps a little less hawkish than Christie and Fiorina, but more hawkish than the others.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rick Santorum dropping presidential bid. on: February 03, 2016, 03:21:46 pm
I was expecting the thread title here to be something like "Santorum comes out of the Presidential race"
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who'll get Santorum's endorsement? on: February 03, 2016, 03:19:17 pm
his old buddy Kasich
12  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Jesus on: February 03, 2016, 12:49:51 pm
FF. According to the Biblical accounts said a lot of great things and a few probably crazy things. Anti-establishment, anti-violence, and lots of his contemporaries hated him. Sounds like a libertarian, right guys? Smiley

Jesus obviously existed, but I don't think you can prove if he was the son of God or not. I wouldn't be surprised if theocratic governments added the religion stuff so that their people could conform to a set lf laws they thought would be better for them, while in reality Jesus was just a cool guy who went around talking about good things like love and whatnot.

There have definitely been attempts by government to shape Christianity into something that could enhance social order, going as far back as Constantine in the 4th century. This was done mostly through trying to stamp out certain beliefs that were considered heretical, rather than completely inventing something new.

But the New Testament, and all its claims about Jesus' divinity, was written by people who were not in control of governments, but were often persecuted by the political authorities. They were considered "atheists" in their day, since they opposed the worship of the Roman Empire's gods, and called Jesus Lord and Son of God instead of the Emperor.  And the Christian religion was developing much of its basic form before any of the New Testament was even written down.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 03, 2016, 01:23:53 am
Democratic caucus by precinct



Are these county delegates or SDEs?   Do you know why there are so many blank areas?
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie and Kasich in IA on: February 03, 2016, 01:18:45 am
IA has very few bridges, so Kasich voters were able to get to the caucuses.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Sanders win a contest other than NH and VT? on: February 02, 2016, 10:15:57 pm
He'll only win caucuses, not so much that he'll do better in caucuses but that the early states in the calendar he has a chance of winning happen to be caucuses.   I think he could win ME, CO, NE and MN, but beware the Ides of March primaries which could put Hillary over the edge.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Primary/Caucus Results by CD on: February 02, 2016, 09:59:14 pm
Interesting that Cruz didn't even crack 30% in Steve King country. His support was a lot more geographically even than expected.

Cultural divisions in the state don't appear to follow CDs that much.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 02, 2016, 04:52:25 pm
**big pdf warning**  Tongue

good find though.   you seem to be one of the few people in the country who has some understanding of this confusing process.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 02, 2016, 04:44:37 pm
A few interesting things, just looking at the precinct map. Rubio's vote of course was heavily correlated with wealth and class. Higher income urban precincts went for Rubio in a big way, such as in Bettendorf, Iowa in Scott County. That was true all over the state. And there was one other area where Rubio can strongly, in the Dutch NW corner of the state, where Trump's vote disappeared. I guess the Dutch don't like Trump's crassness, and there Carson did particularly well. I suspect Rubio did well, because the farmers there are really wealthy. It's basically a relatively rich rural area.

The other interesting thing, is that in the southern tier of counties, Rubio's vote essentially came close to all but disappearing, and Carson did particularly well, as if those counties were the northernmost reaches of the South. They do tend to be poorer counties. In poorer rural areas, where some of the residents are not commuting to an urban area to work, Rubio did poorly. You can see that in Madison County, where Rubio did well in Winterest, particularly the wealthier part, where some folks commute to Des Moines, but very poorly in the southern part of the county, which is the poorest part of the county, with more hilly not very valuable farmland, and where folks do not commute to Des Moines.

Cruz won by doing well also with higher income voters (much better than Trump in most places), along with better than Rubio in poorer rural areas.

Rubio's performance in Calvinist Corner was striking to me as well.  I had sort of assumed Cruz, who seems tailor made to appeal to a conservative Reformed audience, would improve on Santorum's 2012 performance there.  But Rubio in his frequent appeals to his faith and message of American exceptionalism is a very good candidate for a significant section of the Protestant right which is tad more culturally and politically moderate than that which appeals to Cruz. (I know both types from personal experience.) From realisticidealist's excellent map, one can see that Sioux Center and Orange City rivals Rubio's best precincts in the larger urban centers. My guess is the difference between Cruz and Rubio in various precincts in the NW is more directly related to differences in educational attainment and cultural interaction than wealth.   
A casual glance at the map doesn't suggest Cruz's position on ethanol hurt him in his rural support, though it might be interesting to compare the results map to the location of major ethanol refineries.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 02, 2016, 02:56:11 pm
According to the link on uselectionatlas It seems the raw votes are

Clinton     69,631
Sanders   69,319
O'Malley       758

So Clinton wins by around 300 votes.

These are the State Delegate Equivalent numbers multiplied by 100.  Not raw vote totals in any way, shape, or form.

Note that means each county's vote totals should sum up to a multiple of 100 (modulo rounding errors).  This is not the case in Kossuth, Hancock, or Fremont counties, where some results must have just been irretrievably lost.

I was thinking they would report this in terms of the precinct delegates.  I guess maybe the reason they don't is that some delegates are not explicitly committed??
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 01, 2016, 10:53:59 pm
Where do you guys see three?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/2016-election-results/iowa/
 3 precinct delegate (SDE) difference
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 01, 2016, 10:45:36 pm
AP says Sanders is leading in Delegates (actual delegates) 19-18. Clinton still leads in precinct level delegates 568-557.

Yum!

But how?

From what I understand none of the actual delegates are assigned today. It is some sort of delegate equivalents, all indireclty computed. Given how close it comes out, the idea of reporting not the vote but some sort of notional vote instead is looking increasingly not smart.

Precinct delegates are assigned tonight at the precinct caucuses.  The state level delegates are not.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC News: IA R & D caucus location websites don't work for new voters on: February 01, 2016, 04:40:08 pm
A voter with half a brain, would just use a next door address. You know, pick somebody who has lived there for awhile, and owns their home, or whatever.
That assumes someone isn't on the edge of precinct boundary.

Precinct lines run along streets (as do census blocks). So just pick an address on your side of the block.

This is Iowa so I imagine a lot of people may not live on such a block.

Any voter with half a brain is going to know that precinct lines always run along the street.

Any voter with half a brain should realize that precinct lines do not extend indefinitely and so must be defined ultimately by polygons.

But you're right, we should do a test to make sure anyone can figure it all out before they have a right to vote!
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Climate Change: The Burden of Proof on: February 01, 2016, 04:29:11 pm
Quote
Climate change has been going on for millions of years -- long before humans existed on this planet.  Obviously, the causes were all of natural origin and not anthropogenic.  There is no reason to think that these natural causes have suddenly stopped.  For example, volcanic eruptions, various types of solar influences, and atmosphere-ocean oscillations all continue today.   We cannot model these natural climate-forcings precisely and therefore cannot anticipate what they will be in the future.
So far this sounds accurate. 

Quote
But let’s call this the “Null hypothesis.” Logically therefore, the burden of proof falls upon alarmists to demonstrate that this null hypothesis is not adequate to account for empirical climate data.
Wait a second here. The Null hypothesis only establishes the burden of proof in a limited formal sense.  There is also the issue of precaution. If someone claims "if you eat that, you'll die," that person will not have to provide much evidence if any before a reasonable person will hesitate to take a bite.
 
And then, the article becomes sort of 'alarmist' when it comes to a cooling climate.  So, that whole discussion of what is or isn't the null hypothesis becomes irrelevant if you are proposing two different potential relationships, rather than the presence or absence of a single proposed relationship.

There are rational reasons to be concerned about a warming climate. There are rational reasons to be concerned about a cooling climate.  The difference I would guess is that we have already seen climate warming going on already, and its related problems, and have good reasons to believe that human activity is a large contributing factor (though human activity in the pre-industrial age leading to warming and cooling periods can't be ruled out either).  Whether we need to be concerned about cooling in the medium term is much less clear, even if there is some suggestion for it based on past long-term trends.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC News: IA R & D caucus location websites don't work for new voters on: February 01, 2016, 03:43:20 pm
A voter with half a brain, would just use a next door address. You know, pick somebody who has lived there for awhile, and owns their home, or whatever.
That assumes someone isn't on the edge of precinct boundary.

Precinct lines run along streets (as do census blocks). So just pick an address on your side of the block.

This is Iowa so I imagine a lot of people may not live on such a block.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC News: IA R & D caucus location websites don't work for new voters on: February 01, 2016, 02:48:53 pm
A voter with half a brain, would just use a next door address. You know, pick somebody who has lived there for awhile, and owns their home, or whatever.
That assumes someone isn't on the edge of precinct boundary.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 576


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines