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1  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Nate Silver has shifted Ohio from Tossup/Tilt D to Tossup/Tilt R on: June 25, 2012, 11:49:31 pm
Michigan and Wisconsin move into the Tossup/Tilt D collumn but they are likely to remain in the Obama-D collumn. 247ev. Due to the Immigration issue-Obama-D wins CO and NV. 262ev. IA-6 and NH-4 are also in the Tossup/Tilt D collumn.-which is holding Obama-D above 270ev. 272ev.
Winning VA-13 allows Obama-D to lose IA-6.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: If Obama wins in 2012, does Christie run for reelection in 2013? on: June 25, 2012, 12:22:25 am
Christie runs for re-election in 2013. Democratic opposition will either be former US Rep Steve Rothman who was a victim of redistricting. US Rep Robert Andrews from South Jersey who ran for Governor in 1997 but lost in the primary to McGreevey.
3  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO: Public Policy Polling: Obama up 7 on: June 24, 2012, 02:35:21 pm
If the GOP gives up CO indefinitely, they have better chances in other states. Its pointless to try hard and win this state anymore.

The problem, though, is that if they only focus on FL/OH/VA/NC, they won't have enough EVs to reach 270. They need CO, or NV or NH or IA.
Looking at the Hispanic Southwest region.(AZ-11,CO-9,NV-6,and NM-5). NM-5 is Likely/Safe Democratic, NV-6 is Lean/Likely Democratic, CO-9 is Tossup/Lean Democratic. and AZ-11 is Lean Republican/Tossup. AZ-11 is the Southwest State Republicans will hold onto during the next 2 Presidential Elections.  Republicans have to win the McCain States plus IN-11,NC-15,VA-13,FL-29,and OH-18 plus NH-4 and IA-6= to get to 270 plus ev.
If Republicans lose AZ-11 - they are screwed. otherwise they will have to make inroads in WI-10.
4  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA-Susquehanna (R) for the RNC: Obama leads by 5 on: June 24, 2012, 02:21:31 pm
The battleground states are FL-29,OH-18,MI-16,VA-13,and WI-10.
Obama-D states are CA-55,NY-29,IL-20,PA-20,NJ-14,WA-12,MA-11,MD-10,and MN-10.=181ev
Romney-R States are TX-38,GA-16,NC-15,AZ-11,IN-11,TN-11,and MO-10.=112ev.
Obama-D wins DC-3,DE-3,VT-3,HI-4,ME-4,NH-4,RI-4,NM-5,IA-6,NV-6,CT-7,OR-7,and CO-9=246ev.
Romney-R wins AK-3,MT-3,ND-3,SD-3,WY-3,ID-4,NE-5,WV-5,AR-6,KS-6,MS-6,UT-6,OK-7,KY-8,LA-8,AL-9,and SC-9=206ev.
Romney-R has to win FL-29-without FL-29 he is toast. (235ev).
Obama-D is going to win either MI-16 or WI-10. (256ev).
Romney-R now has to win OH-18,VA-13,MI-16 or WI-10.
Obama-D wins MI-16 and WI-10- (272ev) assuming he wins NH-4,IA-6,NV-6,and CO-9.
Romney-R has to win FL-29,OH-18,VA-13 and IA-6 or NH-4 to become President. 
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Do the Democrats have a lock on the Presidency? on: June 24, 2012, 11:06:52 am
Strong Democratic vs Strong Republican.
Democratic=CA-55,NY-29,IL-20,NJ-14,WA-12,MA-11,MD-10,MN-10,CT-7,OR-7,NM-5,HI-4,ME-4,RI-4,DE-3,DC-3,and VT-3=201ev
Republican=TX-38,GA-16,TN-11,AL-9,SC-9,KY-8,LA-8,OK-7,AR-6,KS-6,MS-6,UT-6,NE-5,WV-5,ID-4,AK-3,MT-3,ND-3,SD-3,and WY-3=159ev
Weak Democratic vs Weak Republican
Democratic=PA-20,MI-16,and WI-10=46ev(247ev)
Republican=AZ-11,IN-11,and MO-10=32ev(191ev)
Democrats win NH-4(251ev)
Republicans win FL-29(220ev)
Democrats win IA-6(257ev)
Republicans win OH-18(238ev)
Democrats win NV-6(263ev)
Republicans win NC-15(253ev)
VA-13 and CO-9 are swing states which will be leaning Democratic 1 or 2 election cycles from now.
Romney-R wins the McCain States plus IN-11,NC-15,and FL-29=235ev
Obama-D wins Kerry States minus MI-16,WI-10,and NH-4 plus NM-5,NV-6,and CO-9=236ev. .
6  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: WI: Rasmussen: Thompson cruising to victory on: June 24, 2012, 07:56:28 am
Thompson-R is likely to win the Republican primary due to Neumann-R,Fitzgerald-R and Hovde-R splitting the conservative vote in the primary. Regarding the November General Election against Baldwin-D. Thompson-R is favored to defeat her - but Baldwin-D runs a better than expected campaign and loses by a  52-47 percent margin instead of a 57-42 percent margin. In 2016- Baldwin-D decides to challenge Ron Johnson-R.
7  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: What happens if Romney wins Michigan? on: June 23, 2012, 09:14:43 am
Trade PA,MI,WI,IA,and NH with FL,OH,VA,CO,and NV.  Obama-D ends up with 276ev.
8  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH: Rasmussen: Obama has single-digit advantage on: June 21, 2012, 04:34:09 pm
It is safe to say that Obama-D has the Northeasten States secured in his collumn.
He is going to win NH-4,PA-20,and ME-2CD.
The NewEngland and Mid Atlantic States= (ME-4,NH-4,VT-3,MA-11,RI-4,CT-7,NY-29,PA-20,NJ-14,DE-3,MD-10 and DC-3)=112ev.
Obama-D also has the Pacific West coast states secured in his collumn as well.
HI-4,CA-55,WA-12,and OR-7= 190ev.
The Midwestern States Obama-D is strongly favored to win is IL-20(home state) and MN-10= 220ev. plus Obama-D will win the battleground Southwestern states in NM-5,NV-6,and CO-9.= 240ev.  What is left is MI-16,WI-10,and IA-6 or OH-18 and VA-13 or FL-29 and NE-2CD.
9  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NE: Project New America: Romney up 12 on: June 20, 2012, 04:40:35 pm
How is Obama-D doing in NE-2CD.
Winning MN-10,NM-5,and OR-7= 201ev.
Winning PA-20,NV-6 and CO-9= 236ev.
Winning NH-4,IA-6,and VA-13= 259ev.
Winning WI-10=269ev. the NE-2CD= 270ev for Obama.
or
Winning MN-10,NM-5,and OR-7=201ev.
Winning PA-20,NV-6,MI-16,and CO-9= 252ev.
Winning NH-4 and VA-13= 269ev plus NE-2CD =270ev.
or
Winning MN-10,NM-5,and OR-7=201ev.
Winning PA-20,NV-6,and MI-16=243ev
Winning CO-9,IA-6,and AZ-11= 269ev. winning NE-2CD.  
10  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Would picking Pawlenty hurt Romney? on: June 20, 2012, 02:16:25 pm
A Romney/Pawlenty or A Romney/Christie ticket= Losing home state.
Romney is going to lose MI,and NH. and Pawlenty will not help Romney-R in MN-10, as well as IA and or WI.  and Christie will not help Romney in NJ and PA.
11  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: West Virginia Democrats Scared of their Own Shadows: Will Skip Convention on: June 19, 2012, 07:50:27 pm
If Romney-R wins, Manchin(D-WV) might be the Zell Miller of the 2010s.
During the Bush v Gore race. Bush carried GA by a double digit margin and Miller remained neutral.
During the Bush v Kerry race. Bush increased his margin of victory in GA and and Miller went of the deep end.
Manchin could endorse Romney-R in his 2016 re-election campaign, give keynote address at RNC convention and go on Hardball and challenge Chris Matthews to a duel.
12  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WI: Rasmussen: Romney now leads on: June 18, 2012, 07:16:47 pm
WI-10 is an Obama-D state but it will come after OR-7,MN-10,NM-5,MI-16,PA-20,and NV-6. WI-10 is Obama-D 253ev. and before IA-6,CO-9,NH-4 and VA-13.
Romney-R 270ev will be either NH-4 or CO-9.
After IN-11,NC-15,MO-10,FL-29,OH-18,and VA-13=266ev. then it's CO-9,
13  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MI: Rasmussen: Pete Spend-It-Not down 9 on: June 18, 2012, 06:39:25 pm
This means Pete Hoekstra is trailing Debbie Stabenow by 14 points.
14  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: If Romney defeats Obama, how will you feel? on: June 18, 2012, 02:35:28 pm
Republicans should let Obama-D get re-elected and focus of retaining a Republican majority in the US House and regaining control of the US Senate in 2012 and 2014.
In 2016- Republicans will nominate Rubio(R-FL)- The Tea Party version of Obama-D of 2008.
15  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes? on: June 17, 2012, 09:18:53 pm
Obama-D.
There is a greater chance Obama-D will carry FL-29,OH-18,and VA-13=the must win Romney-R states than Romney-R will carry PA-20,MI-16,and WI-10=the must win Obama-D states.
Obama-D will carry some or all of the swing states like CO-9,IA-6,NV-6,and NH-4.
Battleground states like MN-10,NM-5,and OR-7 are strongly in the Obama-D collumn.
Traditional Republican States like MO-10 and NC-15 are likely to be in the Tossup column.
Republican leaning states like AZ-11,IN-11,and MT-3 are also battleground states.
16  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes? on: June 17, 2012, 08:24:17 pm
Safe Obama-D (DC-3,HI-4,VT-3,RI-4,NY-29,MA-11,MD-10,IL-20,DE-3,CA-55,and CT-7)=149ev
Likely Obama-D (ME-4,WA-12,NJ-14,OR-7,MN-10,and NM-5)=201ev
Lean Obama-D (MI-16,PA-20,WI-10,and NV-6)=253ev
Tossup Obama-D (NH-4,IA-6,and CO-9)=272ev
No Clear Favorite-D (VA-13,OH-18,and FL-29)=332ev
Safe Romney-R (UT-6,WY-3,ID-4,OK-7,AL-9,AK-3,NE-5,KS-6,AR-6,LA-8,KY-8,TN-11,ND-3,SD-3,MS-6,WV-5,and TX-38)=131ev
Likely Romney-R (MT-3,SC-9,IN-11,GA-16,and AZ-11)=181ev
Lean Romney-R (NC-15,MO-10,and FL-29)=235ev
Tossup Romney-R (OH-18 and VA-13)=266ev
No Clear Favorite-R
IA-6,CO-9,and WI-10=291ev
Obama-D will win PA-20,MI-16,NV-6,and NH-4.
Another scenario
Obama-D wins PA-20,WI-10,CO-9,and IA-6=246ev
Romney-R wins MI-16,NV-6,and NH-4=292ev
Obama-D wins PA-20,CO-9,NV-6,and NH-4=240ev
Romney-R wins MI-16,WI-10,and IA-6=298ev
Obama-D will win PA-20,MI-16,WI-10,and NV-6=253ev
Obama-D is more likely to surpass 300ev by winning all of the Kerry States plus NM-5,NV-6,CO-9,IA-6,OH-18,and VA-13.=303ev
Best scenario of Romney-R is winning all of the McCain States(180ev) plus the Dole States-IN-11,NC-15,VA-13,and CO-9=228ev plus Bush43 States-FL-29,OH-18,and NV-6=281ev. Romney will lose PA-20,MI-16,and WI-10. Romney-R is also going to lose NH-4 and IA-6.

17  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: WI: Rasmussen: Thompson cruising to victory on: June 14, 2012, 11:56:19 am
Baldwin-D could be the Chris Coons of WI if she reminds general election voters especially Conservative Independents-how much of a decent reasonable Republican Tommy Thompson is. Try to bait the Tea Party Conservatives to nominate Mark Neumann-R.
The only reason why Thompson is leading by a double digit is that he is high name recognition and he is a Moderate Republican while Baldwin is a partisan Liberal Democrat.
18  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: WI: Rasmussen: Thompson cruising to victory on: June 14, 2012, 11:37:37 am
This is a seat the Dems have no business losing for no more reason that completely crap candidate recruitment.

She's the only one left. Barrett's finished, Kind is way too moderate for their liking, etc.

Feingold would be the only viable option, but he'd never have ran.
Is Rass going to release a poll matchup between Baldwin-D vs Neumann-R. Thompson-R who is the elder statesman in WI politics would defeat any Democratic nominee Feingold,Baldwin,Barrett,Doyle,Kind and Kagan. The general election matchup between Neumann-R or Fitzgerald-R vs the Democratic nominee is a pure Tossup.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Current US Senate Map on: June 09, 2012, 08:38:43 am
HI and CT should be in the medium red category.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NJ-09 DEM Primary: Rothman vs. Pascrell - Who wins ? on: June 05, 2012, 11:56:15 pm
Any chance Rothman-D will be run for Governor of NJ against Christie-R in 2013 or run for the US Senate to replace Lautenberg-D in 2014?
21  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CA/SUSA: Dianne Feinstein vs. ??? on: June 05, 2012, 06:43:23 pm
Feinstein(D-CA) is the oldest US Senator that is running for re-election this year and likely to get re-elected.
22  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MO-PPP: Obama+1 on: June 03, 2012, 11:59:01 pm
In 2000
Bush-R narrowly won NH, narrowly lost IA and NM
In 2004
Bush-R narrowly lost NH,narrowly won IA and NM.
In 2008
Obama-D narrowly lost MO,narrowly won IN and NC
In 2012
Obama-D narrowly wins OH and MO,narrowly loses NC and FL. Loses IN and MT by a high single digit margin.
Obama-D 313ev
Romney-R 225ev
23  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MA-Western New England University: Warren by 2 on: June 03, 2012, 04:33:49 pm
The 2012 MA US Senate Race is going to be decided by a narrow margin. The loser of that race is going to be future candidate for MA statewide office in 2014.
Scott Brown-R will be seeking the Republican nomination for 2014 MA Governors Race- he will be facing Coakley-D in the general election.
Elizabeth Warren-D will either run for the Kerry Seat-assuming Kerry retires or gets selected as Secretary of State during Obama's second term or run for MA State Attorney General or Governor.
24  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NE-Rasmussen: Deb Fischer (R) destroys Bob Kerrey (D) on: May 21, 2012, 02:21:02 pm
Does Kerrey(D) have reverse coattails in NE-2?
While Kerrey(D) is going to lose the statewide popular vote- he is going to win the popular vote in NE-2 by a high single digit/low double digit margin. This could help Obama-D win NE-2 CD suppose there is a 268-270 favoring Romney-R or 269-269.
Obama-D 269ev plus NE-2CD strategy is Kerry States minus NH-4/plus NM-5,CO-9,VA-13 and NE-2.
25  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IN-Global Strategy Group (D): Donnelly tied with Mourdock in internal on: May 18, 2012, 10:21:53 am
Using a statewide election for a non-ideological race like Treasurer is a bona-fide stretch to claim strength in a US Senate race. Mourdock isn't "unelectable" only because this is 2012 Indiana. But his hard-right wing credentials will make this a POTENTIALLY close race, not unlike Kentucky 2010.
If winning a non ideological statewide election is evidence of winning a high profile US Senate Race then MA would not have to deal with Scott Brown. The WhiteHouse and the US Senate Republicans will be fighting over Elizabeth Warrens confirmation to head to the consumer protection agency she introduced.
Coakley-D despite running a lousy campaign in 2010 would have won and still be serving in the US Senate. Coakley-D would win  re-election to a first full term in 2012 by a double digit margin. Coakley's loss in 2010 had to due with superficial reasons- The criteria in 2010 MA was which candidate you wanted to have a beer. Coakley(D-MA) would have left of center voting record had she got elected to the US Senate. Mourdock(R-IN) would have a far right voting record if he gets elected to the US Senate. On the other side, Brown(R-MA) is more conservative than the average MA voter. Donnelly(D-IN) is the true moderate in the race that would not go on Fox News Channel like Bayh or Lieberman.
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