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November 22, 2014, 04:12:59 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / would these people have been confirmed as cabinet members? on: November 18, 2014, 11:13:26 pm
Charles Murray - Secretary of Education (Bush41) this was before the bell curve
William Kunstler - Attorney General (Carter)
Giuliani - Homeland Security (Romney)
McCain - Secretary of Defense (Romney)
Jim Inhofe - EPA Chair (Romney)
Pat Buchanan - Secretary of State (Bush43)

any others

2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rengel retiring on: November 16, 2014, 03:45:55 pm
does anyone see a future Harlem-to-Mount-Vernon district to keep a majority black seat? It would probably send Engel packing.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which Democrat should run against Ron Johnson? on: November 15, 2014, 10:32:07 pm
as I've said. Kind has a better shot of being someone who could hold the seat longer. He's a decade younger than Feingold and has a better chance of being a Herb Kohl like figure who can always win easily (he won 58% in 1994)
4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Southeast Queens on: November 15, 2014, 03:25:13 pm
anyone know why it has a large black majority as opposed to other areas? It just seems so isolated and out of sync in the region. What's more is that unlike other areas (Harlem, BedSty) it doesn't have much of a history. The congressman from that area for decades was Joseph Addabbo and I doubt that it had much of a large black population when he was first elected (it was probably heavily Italian and Irish back then).
5  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / question about Pink Floyd on: November 14, 2014, 12:41:27 pm
in a lot of the pre-Dark side stuff, Rick Wright sings on a lot of their songs. Anyone notice a strange accent he has compared to Roger and Dave? It's almost a caricature/cartoon character accent of what everyone thinks a British accent is like.

Here is some of his stuff
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / why "reform" is a cure worse than the disease on: November 13, 2014, 04:01:44 pm
we hear a lot about reformers on both sides of the aisle: people like Warren on the left and Sasse/Rubio/Paul on the right. The problem with all reform movements is the sanctimony of it. Its the idea of sounding smarter than everyone else despite being lower in seniority and is really akin to people acting as their own attorney in court because they think they are so smart. The other thing is that this rewards people who grandstand for media attention and are often more partisan than the average congressperson.

The way America works now, I think we'd be better adopting a New York style of governance where it is much more of a "shut up and vote" type deal and where everyone gets their sinecure and public works project in exchange for keeping the peace.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: who to run in 2016 on: November 13, 2014, 03:46:49 pm
if anything, Stutzman is the guy Dems should punt on. Hell, Donnelly should just abandon his current seat and run against Coats, so he can extend his life in the senate, since there's no chance in hell he's being re-elected.

1) Stutzman is probably worse than the maximum Indiana will allow (Jenner is probably the worse it can get in IN and he was never popular)

2) what if a republican is elected in 2016 as prez? If that's the case, Donnelly could be like Pat Roberts (seen vulnerable, but he pulls it out of his ass at the end)
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rengel retiring on: November 13, 2014, 03:09:55 pm
I can see a bunch of retirements on Ways and Means and someone like Richard Neal being chairman next time dems control HOR.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: who to run in 2016 on: November 13, 2014, 03:07:58 pm
Lipinski, Kind, Holden, Nixon, Schuler?

Try Bustos, Feingold, Sestak, someone else, and Hagan.

Bustos = also a solid candidate
Feingold = polarizing candidate. Never got above 55% while Kohl got 58-59% in 1994!
Sestak = could option as well
Missouri = Cleaver is too old and Clay is too polarizing
Hagan = seems too generic.
10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Keystone Phil - turning into a vosem clone? on: November 13, 2014, 03:04:12 pm
i've always tolerated him, but he has turned insufferable this election season
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / who to run in 2016 on: November 12, 2014, 03:48:32 pm
my thoughts:

AL - if Shelby retires, try running someone like Bud Cramer to "test" how a conservadem can do. If Shelby doesn't retire, leave him unopposed

AK - don't bother

AZ - depends if McCain retires. If he stays put, don't bother. If he gets teabagged or retires, run someone like Phil Gordon (we need Kirkpatrick and Sinema to hold those seats as long as possible)

AR - Arkansas is gone forever

FL - Castor seems like the best option.

GA - punt on the seat since Isakson is running. If he gets primaried, running Nunn again might work

ID - punt

IL - Lipinski seems like the one who would have the best chance. He's not that much different than Alan Dixon

IN - punt unless Stutzman gets in. If he gets in, try Bayh

IA - try to scare Grassley into retirement by threatening to run Vilsack. If Warner is any indication, personal popularity can be a house of cards.

KS - punt

KY - punt

LA - punt

MO - if he's still popular, try Nixon

NH - Hassan

NC - punish the republicans for gerrymandering and run McIntyre of Schuler

ND - punt

OH - Tim Ryan

OK - punt

PA - Tim Holden

SC - punt

SD - punt

UT - punt, unless Lee is deeply unpopular

WI - Kind

12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: inelasticity - symptom of societal deficits? on: November 12, 2014, 02:45:58 pm
Very interesting list.  Do you have a link to a story behind the list?  Btw what is SES?

SES = Socioeconomic Status
I found these attributes here on page 87
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Describe the likely political views of the previous hypothetical person on: November 12, 2014, 01:16:00 pm
Age:  38
Gender: Male
Race:  White
Education: BA in Software Engineering
Occupation: Software Engineer
Income:  $100,000/year
Marital status:  Divorced (1 kid)
Religion:  Lapsed Catholic
Location: Centennial, CO

sounds like a Hick/Gardner voter
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2016 Top Democratic Targets on: November 11, 2014, 07:53:36 pm
I think the republicans should convince Sheyman to run since it will extend their lease on the seat.

I'm not as pessimistic (though still somewhat pessimistic) about IL-12. I mean Obama won it both times and this is the first time since WWII a republican won it at the congressional level. Also, didn't Stevenson win the current IL-12 both times?

15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: inelasticity - symptom of societal deficits? on: November 11, 2014, 04:48:37 pm
The Huntsville area of Alabama (by far the most educated in the state) seems very inflexibly conservative.

weird. I thought that Huntsville has always been the most moderate part of the state. Before he was a senator, John Sparkman represented that area in the house and after he became senator, was represented by Robert Jones for nearly 30 years, where he eventually chaired the public works committee. This area usually was supportive of the federal government because of the TVA and NASA money going their way. Before the VRA, it was usually the most dem district in the state, and even after the VRA was the most dem after the 7th.

Of course with Chairman Mo in office now, that might all be over.
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / inelasticity - symptom of societal deficits? on: November 11, 2014, 03:13:43 pm
my opinion is that areas with inelastic voters (the south being the most obvious example) are that way because it is a failed state. A place like WA-8, on the other hand is more elastic because almost all of the things that exist in the south don't exist in a place like WA-8. Reichert, of course, is a moderate-minded congressman and the district is not one that has a liking for demagogues (look at who he ran against in 06 and 08).

Psychometricians and social scientists have talked about human capital and the signs of good human capital and low human capital

Signs of good human capital are as follows:
Achievement Motivation
Anorexia (there's a reason why this doesn't exist in human capital deficient Africa)
Artistic Ability
Dietary preference for less sugar and fat
Educational Attainment
Emotional Sensitivity
Extracurricular Attainment
health, fitness, longevity
sense of humor
breadth and depth of interests
logical ability
voluntary migration (i.e. mobility)
moral reasoning
motor skills
musical ability
occupational status
perceptual ability
practical knowledge
reading ability
social skills
high SES
spelling ability
talking speed

Signs of Human Capital Deficit
Accident Proneness
Societal Conservatism
Infant Mortality
Racial Prejudice
Reaction Time (tends to be higher)
Tobacco use
truancy from school

anyone here agree?
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cohn: GOP House majority may now be unshakable for a generation on: November 10, 2014, 04:28:15 pm
I think it's clear that the 2007-2011 Democratic majority was a brief aberration (like the short-lived 1947-1949 and 1953-1955 Republican majorities that studded the long 1931-1995 Democratic majority).

love the hackery. Remember that dems have 245ish seats. Good majority yes, but you have to remember that reps had bigger majorities most years. Let's take a look:

1936 334
1934 322
1932 313
1964 295
1976 292
1974 291
1958 283
1978 277
1982 269
1940 267
1990 267
1948 263
1960 262
1938 262
1988 260
1992 258
1962 258
1986 258
1970 255
1984 253

Although there were guys like George Mahon, William Colmer for the democrats that skewed the numbers there were still Gil Gude and Sil Conte types in the republican caucus.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: RIP Phil Crane on: November 10, 2014, 11:55:43 am
did anyone suspect that he was a john bircher? I suspected he was since he voted against SALT (one of only seven house members) and his association with people like John Ashbrook and Larry McDonald.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / time to punt on 2016? on: November 09, 2014, 04:18:37 pm
basically the dems need to play the long game and try to get Ginsberg to retire and replace her with a Breyer or Souter type that four republicans could vote for.

Then we punt in 2016 so the governors races and redistricting battles will go the dems way in 2018 (and avoid the fiasco-waiting-to-happen that is the 2018 senate seats).
20  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Describe the likely political views of the previous hypothetical person on: November 09, 2014, 10:33:44 am

Physician, ABMS certified in internal medicine
Smokes two packages of cigarettes per day, Marlboro Light
Frequently abuses prescription CNS depressants
Has a deeply criminal psychology, but has never committed a serious crime
Twice divorced, currently unmarried
Two children by two different wives, sees each of the children about two times per year
Earns $270 thousand per year before taxes; spends about $15 thousand a year on insurance
Occasionally hires prostitutes, usually only wants manual stimulation
Drinks large quantities of alcohol (prefers single-malt Scotch whisky), usually alone at home
Sometimes hangs out in a local bar after work
Resides in a small village in the northern peninsula of Michigan
Drives an old jeep, but has purchased two Mercedez-Benz sedans in the past four years, both for his ex-wives

probably votes third party

Petty Officer in Navy
Makes probably 60-70K a year when you factor in that he is the pot supplier to his fellow comrades
never married, doesn't like to be tied to one woman
lives in Norfolk, VA
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: is this type of stuff the new normal? on: November 07, 2014, 11:14:17 pm
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / should future reapportionment be based on something other than on: November 07, 2014, 01:30:54 am
population? I think its a mockery that one person in one district can win a landslide with a certain amount of votes, while someone in another district can lose in a landslide but still get more raw votes (think of Rohrabacher's dem opponents vs Sanchez) Would CVAP or projected number of voters be a more useful tool for reapportioning. Maybe the dems concentration problem could be solved that way.
23  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Most socially conservative county with a population of over 500,000? on: November 06, 2014, 11:48:01 pm
Which large (over 500,000 people) county (s) in America would you say is the most socially conservative?

Define "socially conservative" in any way you wish. Tongue

Utah County, UT

Social Conservative = opposition to social engineering schemes
24  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Describe the likely political views of the previous hypothetical person on: November 06, 2014, 11:47:09 pm
soft partisan dem.

Gender Male
Orientation Metrosexual (straight but with fashion tastes rivaling that of liberace)
Age 42
Children no children
Marital Status Single (likes a steady supply of women)
Education BBA and MBA
Residence: La Jolla, CA by way of Great Neck, NY
Religion raised as a marginally orthodox jew, now an agnostic
Occupation - real estate developer/ponzi schemer
Income - 100K a month
25  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / why is Staten Island different than the area it borders? on: November 06, 2014, 11:36:34 pm
I would always assume it would be similar to the nearby areas like Bayonne, Elizabeth, Rahway etc - blue collar, maritime towns. In Staten Island, the only area with a similar bent to it is the north shore.
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