Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 25, 2015, 05:19:33 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 96
1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IA-1/3: Culver considering on: January 24, 2015, 02:04:22 am
the Iowa democratic party is full of mediocrities. The dems haven't had a really strong incumbent who would get huge margins since Neal Smith. In 15 of the 19 elections he ran, he got above 60 percent.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: why are Philadelphia area whites more dem than NY area whites? on: January 22, 2015, 08:55:04 pm
How did you calculate each county's white GOP vote?

looking at the 75%+ white precincts in those counties
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Challenging the notion that Vermont was always left wing on: January 22, 2015, 08:54:15 pm
the state was probably somewhat more conservative but it was never a conservative state. Guys like Flanders or Aiken were never particularly conservative. The closest thing one could get to a conservative was Winston Prouty.
4  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / do the MRA and HBD movements have overlap? on: January 22, 2015, 02:19:11 am
An MRA type website is something like this website: http://www.avoiceformen.com/ while an example of a HBD website is like this https://lionoftheblogosphere.wordpress.com/. I would say though that Lionoftheblogosphere (formerly called Half Sigma) is more into pop culture and how it intersects with HBD (i.e. similar to Steve Sailer).

But I think they tend to attract the same kind of people and someone like Jack Donovan arguably has a foot in both camps. The reader of either blog, IMO tends to be a single guy in his 20s and 30s who is disillusioned by the current state of affairs.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Which Party would these people be for today on: January 20, 2015, 10:53:02 pm
Barry Goldwater = not sure there's anyone quite like him. Though it depends what Goldwater. The Goldwater of the 50s and early 60s is more akin to Cruz or Lee. The Goldwater of the 70s and 80s is more of the Orrin Hatch (a young turk who mellows with age)

Henry Scoop Jackson = he reminds me of former congressman Norm Dicks. Big time appropriator, big time hawk, moderate on societal issues

Eisenhower - very much a Red tory republican (i.e. Rodney Frelinghuysen)

Joe Mccarthy - Louie Gohmert (as both are not taken very seriously)

Robert Taft - Steve King is the closest example as he is a throwback to the old "america first" right wing of the mid 20th century (besides Taft other examples are William Jenner, Kenneth Wherry)

Henry Wallace - considering he changed his mind after 1948, I could see him being like Kucinich (i.e. somewhat of a flake)

George Wallace - someone like Rodney Alexander. Big into pork-barrel stuff but is a republican either out of convenience or a dislike of what they see is an elitist mentality of the democratic party.

JFK - probably would have ended up like Ted.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Are any Democratic incumbents in danger of losing primaries? on: January 20, 2015, 08:41:40 pm
what about Louise Slaughter and Sandy Levin. Its not uncommon for someone considered to be too old, to get primaried.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: OH-13: Local Democrats salivating at potential open seat on: January 20, 2015, 08:38:28 pm
"Traficanti"?

name reminds me of a crackpot who used to represent some of this district.
8  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: why is NE Indiana so right wing? on: January 18, 2015, 11:14:12 pm
Doesn't northeastern Indiana have a lot of religious conservatives? Remember, western Michigan is pretty conservative too.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amish

amish usually don't vote as they see it as part of the outside world.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: how did LaFollette voters vote in subsequent elections on: January 18, 2015, 11:10:52 pm
Less to the left than you might think. There was a sizable former conservative German Democrat base that supported La Follette for not being too supportive of WWI. Those folks made up the bulk of the Wisconsin GOP from the 1950s onward.

You cannot underestimate the importance of World War I in Wisconsin politics in that era. For instance, in 1920 Woodrow Wilson was so toxic here that Democratic Presidential candidate James Cox managed to get 16% of the vote in Wisconsin. La Follette's success relied on keeping the folks who were staunchly anti-WWI in his fold even though they agreed with him on almost nothing else.

actually from what I know about wisconsin politics, everyone was a republican until the 1950s when many LaFollettites who were formerly republican, migrated into the democratic fold as a backlash against McCarthy (remember McCarthy beat LaFollette in the 1946 republican primary). This is why the state started electing democrats at that time (Proxmire, Nelson, Kastenmeier etc).
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / how did LaFollette voters vote in subsequent elections on: January 18, 2015, 03:20:26 am
I'm sure this question has been asked in the ten year history of this forum but I'll ask anyways. Here is my guess

1928 - evenly split between Hoover and Smith (as many scandinavian areas didn't like Smith either). I might add a lot of them may have voted for Thomas

1932 - heavily for FDR with some still voting for Thomas

1936 - I think a good deal may have voted for Lemke but still heavily for Roosevelt

1940-1944 - still voted for FDR but probably only 60ish percent as opposed to the 70-75% he may have won in 1932 and 36

1948 - somewhere halfway between 32-36 and 40-44 numbers. Probably a non-negligible number for Wallace

After that the population of people who voted for LaFollette start decreasing in large numbers but I'll guess they voted for Eisenhower in 52 and 56, 55-60% towards Kennedy, FDR numbers for LBJ, and close to a majority for Humphrey (and maybe only 5% for Wallace).
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / what southern districts do you think has the highest proportion of on: January 17, 2015, 06:12:52 pm
self-described "lifelong republicans"? I'm thinking TN 1, TN 2, TX 7, TX 3 and AR 3 as possibilities.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: More Than Half Of American Schoolchildren Now Live In Poverty. on: January 17, 2015, 01:33:12 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kSULMV09is
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: historic bases/constituencies of each party on: January 17, 2015, 12:08:07 am
Ex Confederacy

Alabama
Republican = a few isolated counties in northern Alabama and after WWII the cities (Birmingham and Montgomery in particular)
Democrat = anywhere else. The TVA area (old 8th district) was pretty strongly dem

Arkansas
Republican = areas closer to OK and MO
Democrat = areas closer to MS, TN, LA

Florida
Republican = anything south of Daytona save Dade County
Democrat = anything north of Daytona (especially the current FL-2)
Marginal = parts of south Florida without northern migrants (i.e. Polk County, everglades)

Georgia
Republican = isolated mountain counties
Democrat = the whole state pretty much but it varied. The piedmont was marginal while the south of the fall line often gave Soviet style numbers for dems (though this inverted in 1964)

Louisiana
- By the early 1960s, the catholic/baptist divide was unfolding as the 4th and 5th districts were "unpledged" while southern Louisiana was still dem voting (though it did vote for Eisenhower)
- the republican stronghold was Shreveport which despite 25% unpledged, went majority for Nixon in 1960 and was a RW oil town, very much like Tyler, Tulsa, Midland etc
- dem stronghold was the most cajun heavy areas (3rd and 7th districts)

Mississippi
The entire state was dem back then but there were different types of politics in each state.
MS 1 - populist hill country territory (not unlike next door northern Alabama)
MS 2 - the deep south -iest part of the state
MS  4 - not as many blacks but still plenty reactionary
MS 3 - qualities of both the 2nd and 3rd districts.

NC
I-85 is historically the dividing line with areas west of it republican and areas east of it dem; but it was still varied. The most dem areas were the areas east and northeast of Raleigh (Bonner and Fountain districts) while the 4th, 7th and 3rd were more D+10ish. Eastern NC has always been part of the deep south/tidewater.

West of that line it was still ancestrally democratic (save for a few counties in the NW corner of the state) but was fast receding. The state elected a republican congressman in 1952 and the republicans came close to beating Bob Doughton and Hugh Alexander several times until finally succeeding in 1962 when James Broyhill knocked him off.  Unlike TN, the most republican areas were not the mountain areas though but the piedmont (especially the areas between charlotte and winston salem/greensboro)

SC
- SC was different from NC in the sense that there was no tidewater/piedmont divide. It was more nuanced. The divide was more north-south with northern SC (save for Greenville) voting dem and southern SC (especially Columbia) voting republican. SC-2 (the district containing Columbia and Lexington) actually elected a republican for the first time in 1965. The 5th district was often the most dem part of the state

TN
The 1st and 2nd (especially the 1st) were hardcore republican and has been since the civil war. The 3rd at the time was marginal and when an incumbent democrat lost renomination in 1962, it went republican (though switched back a dozen years later). Middle Tennessee is more populist and like Northern Alabama, NE Mississippi and less obsessed with racial issues. Western Tennessee is more deep-south like, although Memphis 50 years ago was showing signs of a republican trend as the 9th district nearly elected a republican congressman in 1962 and 1964.

TX
Republicans = German areas of Central TX and the gulf coast in the past and more recently the oil community (Tyler-Longview, Midland-Odessa, Dallas) and the wheat counties in the panhandle.

Democrats = rural Central and eastern Texas and south Texas

Marginal - the cotton counties in between the metroplex and Lubbock (the old 17th), San Antonio (German-Mexican schism), Fort Worth and Houston (historic east-west division)

VA
Republicans = much of the rural mountainous part of the state (which had always been suspicious of secession) and more recently Henrico and Chesterfield.

Democrats = rural areas south of Richmond, east of the piedmont and west of hampton roads (4th and parts of the old 5th). Also a few coal counties in SW Virginia

Marginal = (DC Area, Hampton Roads, Richmond Proper (which was experiencing white flight at the time)).
14  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / why is NE Indiana so right wing? on: January 16, 2015, 04:34:57 pm
it just seems that Indiana is different than the states it borders in the sense that north=more dem and south=more republican. There are some dark red parts of the state and for a mid-sized city, Fort Wayne is pretty conservative. IN-3 (old IN-4) often goes heavily republican and gave Bush 68-69% in 04 and even Murdock got 57% in 2012. The district's congressman, Marlin Stutzman, seems to be a Broun/Gohmert type, with his only saving grace being that he keeps his mouth shut mostly.

15  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: opinion of Orlando, FL on: January 13, 2015, 08:47:37 pm
in the episode last Sunday of Family Guy where Brian turns stupid due to a tumor, one of the things he does with Peter is go to Orlando.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: HYPO: Defeated Senators from 2014 run in 2012 on: January 10, 2015, 11:46:18 pm
VA: Warner wins by 7-9 points, not by the plurality he did.

most polls had Warner winning 10-15 percent this year and with regular turnout, he would have
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / historic bases/constituencies of each party on: January 10, 2015, 11:39:01 pm
Midwest/Border

Illinois
Republicans = anything north of the 40th parallel save for Chicago and Rock Island (non Cook County Chicago was pretty hardcore R back then). Will County was marginal as the county was dominated by the industrial city of Joliet.

Democrats = Chicago proper, Rock Island County, Madison and St Clair counties

Marginal = anything south of the 40th parallel not in Metro East, Will County as mentioned above.

Indiana
Republicans = WASP, non industrial areas of Central, Northern and NE Indiana (Halleck district and some of those counties like Steuben or Kosciusko (and the counties surrounding Indianapolis which were rural back then)

Democrats = Lake, St Joseph and the occasional county in southern Indiana.

Marginal = most of southern Indiana. Indianapolis usually voted a few points more republican than the state interestingly enough

Iowa
Republicans = anything not mentioned below usually went republican though it varied by hue. Even back then, the case was true that the closer one got to Nebraska, the more republican it was (though the correlation wasn't as strong)

Democrats = occasional catholic county like Carroll, Dubuque and sometimes even Audubon. Also Polk and Wapello counties

Kansas

Republicans = anywhere not mentioned below. Looking at old maps, it seemed that the rural WASP counties in northern Kansas were the most republican. Johnson County also hasn't voted D for president since 1916 (and was just starting to influence state politics by this point).

Democrats = Wyandotte, occasional catholic county (Hays) and the occasional "southern" influenced county in SE Kansas

Marginal = to some extent Wichita

Kentucky

Republicans = those clump of counties that used to make up the old Siler/Hall district and the counties close to Cincinnati

Democrats = the Jackson purchase area. Also there were a stretch of counties in old maps stretching between Louisville, Lexington and Cincinnati all the way to coal country (look at the 1956 map for instance).

Marginal = west central Kentucky (Natcher district) plus Jefferson County

Michigan

Republicans = Dutch areas of Western Michigan (Ottawa and Kent), the WASP areas on the Indiana border and areas with a little of both (Allegan). Also, northern LP (Cederberg district).

Democrats = Macomb, Wayne, western UP

Marginal = Monroe, Washtenaw, sometimes Oakland and some non-WASP/Dutch areas of Western Michigan, eastern UP, Gennessee (which went for Nixon in 1960)


Minnesota

Republicans = parts of southern and SW Minnesota and the occasional German lutheran area (like Carver) or those counties that went for Goldwater

Democrats = St Paul, Iron Range, Anoka

Marginal = NW Minnesota (the original 7th district), German catholic areas (historically volatile). Minneapolis was only marginally dem back then.

Missouri
Republicans = German and pro-Union areas that tended to follow west of St Louis on I-44 to the Oklahoma border

Democrats = the old Clarence Cannon district, the areas south of St Louis on the Mississippi (lead belt/bootheel), St Louis proper and KC proper

Marginal = some of Central Missouri (think Moulder, Randall, Ichord districts), rural northern Missouri (the Hull seat) and St Louis County

Nebraska
Republicans = anywhere not mentioned below

Democrats = occasional non-WASP county (there's that one czech county near Lincoln for instance)

Marginal = Omaha

North Dakota
North Dakota is interesting since it doesn't have a polarizing geography like other states do. The general rule of thumb is that the closer you get to Minnesota, the more dem it gets but there were plenty of exceptions

Ohio

Republicans = non-Cincinnati Hamilton, Columbus after WWI, and much of central and western Ohio. Also the non=industrial, WASP heavy county of Geauga

Democrats = occasional German county in western Ohio, Toledo, Cuyahoga, Akron, Youngstown/Warren, the old 18th, occasional southern influenced county in the scioto valley

Marginal = Cincinnati proper, Dayton, Lorain, the James Polk district (6th)

Oklahoma
Republicans = areas with a more Great Plains/Kansas feel to them, also Tulsa
Democrats = (anything east of hwy 75)
marginal = SW Oklahoma and other parts of Central Oklahoma

South Dakota
Republicans = much of the state, especially west of the Missouri

Democrats = occasional catholic county

Marginal = occasional county in eastern SD


West Virginia
general rule of thumb is that the further you get from I-77, the more republican it gets.

Wisconsin

Republicans = Fox River Valley (rural Racine and Kenosha, Walworth, the WOW and a few other counties like Green Lake). Also, SW Wisconsin (Thomson district) was pretty strongly republican then and voted like NW Illinois.

Democrats = Racine and Kenosha proper, Milwaukee, Madison, some of the areas in the old 10th district (not sure how Alvin O'Konski survived so many tough elections)

Marginal = occasional catholic county that would vote for a democrat for president (parts of the old 6th and 8th districts).

18  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / name a band/musician and say what you would assume the stereotypical fan on: January 10, 2015, 02:15:00 am
of the group to be like?

Pink Floyd - nerdy, obviously acid/weed users and likes to fantasize of conspiracy theories (NWO, wiretapping, false flag operations). Overwhelmingly single male, 20s and early 30s age-wise. Politically they are either peacenik liberal, or Rand Paul type republicans and in some cases anarchists. Tend to be commitmentphobes and anti-social.
19  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: opinion of Orlando, FL on: January 08, 2015, 08:57:18 pm
I like the fact that Orange and Osceola counties are trending D, but that's mainly because the region is diversifying, and sadly that seems to have increased racial tensions (Trayvon Martin). Seems to be a divide between the white retirees and the black/hispanic transplants.

Actually, Orlando used to be a hyper-GOP stronghold back in the day and sent republicans to Tallahassee back when everyone else was a democrat. Even controlling for race/ethnicity, the whites there are more dem then they were in the 70s or 80s (Obama in 08 got 45% of the white vote in Orange County).
20  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / opinion of Orlando, FL on: January 08, 2015, 04:15:00 pm
I saw the Book of Mormon last night and I thought it was funny how Price said the place he wanted to go to was Orlando. Ostensibly its a fun place - 70-80 degree temps the whole year and a lot of amusement/water parks. And its also home to BRTD's favorite congressman.

Nonetheless, I've always felt its a shady place, similar to Las Vegas. It seems whenever you hear in the news about someone masturbating in public or a serial killer/child molester at large, it seems to be in Orlando, or at least Florida (see here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wugmipPvTFE). It seems the type of place where there are a lot of scary transient types. Like many resort areas you have to stay "on the reservation" because once you leave, all bets are off.
21  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / anyone seen these tourist videos? on: January 06, 2015, 10:48:01 pm
they're pretty damn funny

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5vPmVV-kfg Las Vegas
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSTKjyCbYFg Bakersfield
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIVeYiI0vXs Pacoima
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BH7Te9Q8KBk Canoga Park
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLVlY8BAbPo more Canoga Park
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMiEAr60yMY Van Nuys
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U98ezNLNSdw Venice
22  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: what ten districts do you think has the highest percent of on: January 04, 2015, 02:03:06 pm
Incidentally, Graceland was builit in 1939, so Memphis does have at least one old house.

The idea that a house built in 1939 is old is hilarious.

the fact that probably half the people born in 1939 are dead means to me that it is old.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Create the Democratic Dream Team! on: January 01, 2015, 01:47:28 pm
Alabama - Bud Cramer
Alaska - Mark Begich
Arizona - Gabrielle Giffords
Arkansas - Mike Beebe
California - Barbara Boxer (Sandberg if she retires)
Colorado - Michael Bennet
Connecticut - Richard Blumenthal
Florida - Castor
Georgia - Nunn
Illinois - Lipinski
Idaho - random state legislator
Indiana - random state legislator
Iowa - Tom Vilsack
Kansas - Paul Davis
Kentucky - ALG
Louisiana - Ced Richmond
Missouri - Nixon
New Hampshire - Hassan
North Carolina - Shuler
North Dakota - random state legislator
Ohio - Tim Ryan
Oklahoma - Boren
Pennsylvania - Holden
South Carolina - Bakari Sellers
South Dakota - Sandlin
Utah - Matheson
Wisconsin - Kind
24  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / what ten districts do you think has the highest percent of on: December 31, 2014, 11:10:20 pm
homes/places of residences that were built before WWII? And not only that but what percent would that be?

Its hard to know since Manhattan has been populated for a long time, but there are few single family homes. A lot of the tenements were torn down in the 50s by Robert Moses and replaced by giant high rises. It would probably be somewhere with a lot of single family and rowhouses. PA 1&2 and IL 4 (bungalow belt) probably fit this role somewhat.
25  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: opinion of James Watson on: December 30, 2014, 11:44:03 pm
Sometimes, I think he should have gotten into evolutionary psychology as opposed to biology.

That would have been the worst possible outcome. For anything.

why?

Evolutionary psychology is horrible and James Watson is horrible. Combining them would create an axis of...well, not an axis of evil, because Watson isn't all bad and there are only two of them, so more like a binary star of awful.

ok but why is evo-psych horrible?
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 96


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines