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July 04, 2015, 08:40:11 am
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1  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / opinion of Stefan Molyneux on: July 03, 2015, 05:36:42 pm
?
2  General Discussion / History / Re: the future of America predicted in 1944? on: July 03, 2015, 01:33:03 pm
Was he specifically talking about the US?

yes, it was from a book called "The American Dilemma"
3  General Discussion / History / the future of America predicted in 1944? on: July 03, 2015, 02:17:08 am
I mean I'm skeptical of the idea of psychics but here is a text that is bone chillingly accurate by Gunnar Myrdal in 1944:

"From the point of view of social science, this means, among other things, that social engineering will increasingly be demanded. Many things that for a long period have been predominately a matter of individual adjustment will become more and more determined by political decision and public regulation. We are entering an era where fact-finding and scientific theories of causal relations will be seen as instrumental in planning controlled social change. The peace will bring nothing but problems, one mounting upon another, and consequently new urgent tasks for social engineering."
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2018 NY Gov on: June 27, 2015, 11:08:37 pm
I think Gibson would do really against Cuomo. Idk if thats enough to win, though

May be. But Gibson, while generally very moderate by present day Republican standards, is pro-life. For NY candidate it's rather a minus...

correct me if i'm wrong but he voted against the 20 week ban in 2013. That has to count for something.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Murphy In on: June 25, 2015, 10:39:49 am
He seems to be the representative of the most conservative district of the south, right?

the south? no. Florida? yes. District is full of aging rambos.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Northeastern Congressional Delegation (HoR) on: June 23, 2015, 12:22:43 am
It illustrates just why the party, and especially its Conservative wing began to look to the South and West. The only way the Party could get a majority was to win 2/3rds of the seats in the Northeast and that was unlikely with a Conservative GOP in a New Deal Era.

another classic SCNY post with the same hackery. Guy sounds like Jay Cost almost.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Murphy In on: June 21, 2015, 04:14:38 pm
interesting thing - if Murphy wins, he would be the youngest U.S. senator since Don Nickles in 1980.
8  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: How did California gain 7 electoral votes in the 1980's? on: June 17, 2015, 03:08:29 am
i honestly don't know. I think it may have had to do with silicon valley. Also, the cold war was on life support but still requiring extra manpower and the aerospace industry was doing pretty well. In the 90s with the end of the cold war, the aerospace industry atrophied and there were other factors in the early 90s that disturbed people (Rodney King, prop 187) and a lot of middle class (and oftentimes conservative) voters started moving out of state.
9  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: what will the Southlake, TXs of the world look like in half a century? on: June 02, 2015, 03:22:30 pm
The growth in half a century will be much further out, since Tejas has more land than it knows what to do with. (CT is the size of one of their counties, so maybe I'm just jealous).

First Frisco will continue to become as big as Plano & Arlington (200,000-300,000), then its neighbor to the north, Prosper, will start to grow into a mega-suburb. 10 years later the cycle will continue with the next neighbor on the Tollway, Celina.

After that growth tsunami will reach Grayson County (unless this move back to the cities actually happens, I keep seeing articles about it but the population data shows little to no sign of it).

Other places that will be growing faster then include Wise & Parker Counties and the town of Forney.

The Tollway doesn't go that far, and that's what's restricting growth. Hwy 380 is still a bumpkin state highway with insufficient overpasses and way to much traffic. The Northwest side of the metroplex has the same problem. The funding deal for 114 fell through when Texas Motor Speedway was completed, which means Argyle, Justin, Northlake areas are still excluded from convenient DFW and Dallas access. They have to get through the mess in Roanoke.

Southlake will continue to develop, but stay mainly the same. I don't see it turning into an old money locale. It's perfect for DFW access, which means traveling executives, regional sales directors, public accounts, etc are happy to live there. Highland Park/University Park is the other option, but prices are prohibitive.

couldn't highway 289 theoretically become a tollway in the future?
10  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / what will the Southlake, TXs of the world look like in half a century? on: June 01, 2015, 11:42:24 pm
Somewhere like Southlake is what I would call "ground zero" for the new rich as opposed to the old rich of Park Avenue, Holmby Hills etc. But East Manhattan and West LA were once new neighborhoods and were once "noveau riche" so what will the trajectory look like - will Southlake join the pantheon of "old money stomping grounds" and the noveau riche of the future will live (at least in the DFW area) around Lake Roberts or what not?
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Ron Johnson condemns the "Lego Movie" as anti-business propaganda on: May 30, 2015, 01:57:26 am
i didn't see the lego movie as anti-business per se but more of a modern take on Huxley's "Brave New World"
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: CA-17: Khanna likely gunning for rematch on: May 28, 2015, 08:50:43 pm
endorsed
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What will happen when the Southern women see Bill Clinton again? on: May 28, 2015, 08:28:17 pm
Well I do declare, he is very fine indeed.

that type of accent was largely dead by the mid 20th century
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: WA-PPP: Murray holding early leads on: May 26, 2015, 08:42:25 pm
This. The Pacific West is as inelastic as MS. This race is Safe D.

uh, what?
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / percent of voters in midterm compared to previous presidential election on: May 26, 2015, 09:44:36 am
here are the years I have information for:
1930 67.3%
1934 82.5%
1942 56.2%
1946 71.7%
1950 82.9%
1954 69%
1958 73.7%
1962 74.4%
1966 74.9%
1970 74.1%
1974 67.3%
1978 66.9%
1982 73.8%
1986 64.5%
1990 68.1%
1994 67.5%
1998 69.2%
2002 70.9%
2006 66.2%
2010 66%
2014 61%
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats Face a Grim Future -National Journal on: May 25, 2015, 10:19:11 pm
Unless a bunch of House seats change their nature (let us say R+7 to D+5)  before then, it is highly unlikely that the Democrats will have a House majority before at least 2023. With America polarized as it is and gerrymanders intact, Democrats must win the total vote for the House by about 54-46.

We do not live in a democracy. We live in a plutocratic oligarchy.

the dems need to get an outright majority before they have a shot of taking over. Remember 48.8% (the % they got in 2012) was not a majority.
17  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / SE Houston area (question for IndyTX) on: May 22, 2015, 10:48:25 pm
what's the reason why its so republican? I've been to the port before and the area around it kind of looked straight out of a victor hugo novel. I would expect it to be kind of like downriver Detroit and pretty dem leaning.

Yet A lot of the precincts in the SE corner of the county (and Galveston) are heavily republican. Is it possible that these voters are not blue-collar workers but actually sunbelt-types who are transplants and work at NASA (which I think is in that area)?
18  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: best and worst neighborhoods near airports on: May 22, 2015, 04:55:44 pm
SeaTac is probably the worst place in King County. Total rathole.

really, i thought it was middle-income white and asian suburbs. Even if it is the worst part of King County, its probably pretty nice by Bronx standards.
19  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: best and worst neighborhoods near airports on: May 21, 2015, 07:08:34 pm
The area around Chicago O'Hare is awful.

as someone who's flown out of both I can tell you that the area around O'Hare is pretty nice (isn't it in the Dupage area?). Midway on the other hand is on the edge of the barrio.
20  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / best and worst neighborhoods near airports on: May 19, 2015, 09:03:55 pm
taking into account the fact that any neighborhood near an airport could potentially be a noise issue (especially in a busy one) what are the best and worst in your opinion

If I recall, DFW is in one of the nicest parts of the metroplex (Southlake, Flower Mound)
on the other hand, JFK is near the most dangerous part of Queens (South Jamaica)

Others
- LAX is kind of on the line between bohemian (Marina Del Ray, Santa Monica) and middle class (El Segundo, Westchester) but is a good place to live as long as you're not too far inland

- Hartsfield is sandwiched in between some pretty nasty neighborhoods to the north and some meh and working class areas to the south.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrat's path to a majority in the House on: May 18, 2015, 05:23:43 pm
Democrats have to pick up 30 seats in order to get a majority in the House of Representatives. Here are some seats likely needed in order to do so.

AZ-02, AR-02, CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CO-06, FL-13, FL-26, IL-10, IL-12, IL-13, IA-01, IA-03, ME-02, MI-01, MI-07, MI-08, MN-02, NV-03, NV-04, NH-01, NJ-03, NJ-05, NY-01, NY-11, NY-19, NY-21, NY-24, PA-06, PA-08, TX-23, VA-02, VA-10, WA-08, WV-02, WI-07

There are 36 seats here, so they have to win 83% of these in order to get the majority. If there is already a thread on this, I apologize.



Some problems:

AR-02 - difficult with  heavy republican swing in this state

IL-12. Southern Illinois swung to Republicans too

IL-13 Adequate Republican congressman, who will be difficult to beat

MI-08 AFAIK - relatively weak Democratic bench and relatively strong Republican tradition on local level despite rather good Democratic presidential numbers.

MN-02. Generally conservative district with solidly conservative bit unoffensive Republican.

NV-03. Heck is a rather talented congressman  and pragmatic conservative to boot.

NJ-03 MacArthur is very adequate representative of this swingy, but usually Republican on congressional level district - conservative, but not VERY conservative. He isn't Lonegan

NJ-05 Garrett is a right-wing extremist, but district is conservative enough.

NY-11 Donovan fits district as hand fits glove. Police union is popular there. Only scandal may doom him

NY-21. Stefanik isn't a fiery right-winger, and district's tradition is very Republican (Owens was the only Democrat representing it i may remember and he was anything, but liberal)

PA-08. Bucks county has better Republican (and not especially conservative, what's good for suburban district) then Democratic bench

WI-07 Duffy seems rather entrenched and, while solidly conservative - not especially offensive.

So (IMHO of course) - -12 and no chances (for majority) except in really BIG wave.



The democrats need to stop pretending they can't win these seats. If someone like Mark Warner could come close to losing, then some of these guys can be defeated - especially the guys who got below 60%.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Predict the House Makeup After 2016 on: May 18, 2015, 05:21:19 pm
the democrats need to throw everything they've got at the HOR. I had always thought the 230-odd seats the republicans held after 1994 should be a highwater mark. There's no reason the dems shouldn't be holding as many seats as they did after 1994.

I'm starting to think that the DCCC is turning into the way the RNCC was under Guy Vanderjagt.
23  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / why are criminal defense lawyers overwhelmingly male? on: May 16, 2015, 12:57:20 am
I watch a lot of crime shows and would surmise that DAs and ADAs are about 50/50 male-female. When it comes to defense lawyers, I'd guess it would be more 85-15 male-female.

Being a crimdef lawyer has to be pretty hard since in most cases, the ball is already in the red zone and a trial (if the defendant doesn't plead guilty) is a mere 1-yard dive play. Since lawyers were disproportionately male in the past, is it possibly because most criminal defense lawyers have years of experience (and many started out as prosecutors) and many female lawyers are just starting out (thus in DA offices) that explains this?
24  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Is Oklahoma Southern? on: May 13, 2015, 05:21:08 pm
parts of it are: the old 3rd definitely is while the rest of the state is more has a Great Plains/Kansasy feel to it
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / how would you classify the political eras of the U.S. house? on: May 13, 2015, 04:00:00 pm
Era 1: 1995-
Republicans have mostly had control during this time period and this has been more trench warfare politics and the rise of winner-take-all, zero-sum battles. That's not to say politics weren't ugly but it seems its more noticeable now. Someone like Gingrich, DeLay, Pelosi are definitely products of this environment

Era 2: 1975-1995; Dems have control and often have enough of a cushion to offset dixiecrats. The politicians of this era tended to be smart at holding otherwise difficult seats. I'm not sure what politicians define this era but a few are: Philip Burton, Mo Udall, and many of the watergate children like Phil Sharp or Tom Downey. You also had an influx of "acceptable-to-all-factions" southern democrats like Butler Derrick and Stephen Neal from the Carolinas and a few others.

Era 3: 1959-1975; This was the flux era between the conservative coalition and the post-watergate party. There were a lot of changes going on in this era in the U.S. and the same could be said for congress. By 1958, the dems had solidified control of the HOR but there was still vestiges of conservatism as a lot of the would-be-committee chairmen were defeated in 1946. As a result you still had a lot of unreconstructed types holding power (Judge Smith). This was the era of the Democratic Study Group and what not and the evolution of what liberalism meant. Many pols thought to be liberals were all of a sudden not as new issues came into the fore (think Chet Holifield, Philip Philbin, Jim Delaney etc). Guys like Holifield, Philbin, and Delaney were the type of pols who defined this area as the bridge between the insurgents (DSG) and the dixiecrat types.

Era 4: 1939-1959; This was the era of the Conservative Coalition with the democrats not often being above 60% and the republicans often having enough southern democrats to peel off support. In fact up to half of the democratic caucus during this era was from the deep south and the rest were border state blue dogs and big city machine types willing to go along to get along. This is the height of the red scare era and the pols defining this era would be the red-baiters (Parnell Thomas, John Rankin, Martin Dies) and the Midwestern Old Right (Clare Hoffman, Noah Mason, Clarence Brown). The 1958 election, especially in the senate, ends up with these guys losing (in the senate Bricker, Jenner, Malone, McCarthy all either lose or would have lost had they not died/retired).

Era 5: 1933-1939; This is the New Deal era with the democrats basically having the power to do whatever they wanted. The number of seats they held were unsustainable and by 1938, the economy had relapsed, the midwest was wary that Roosevelt might get into WWII, and some pro-New Deal democrats began to turn on him when Roosevelt was recruiting people to primary incumbents. The New Deal in many ways was a collection of various third party movements, many of them crackpot before the Depression that had some success (Francis Townsend, William Lemke, Charles LaFollette, James Weaver). This was also the peak era of the agrarian radical as there were many third party officeholders in MN and WI. By 1947 though the Wheelers, LaFollettes and Shipsteads were mostly gone.
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