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April 24, 2014, 04:05:59 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) on: Today at 01:03:22 am
William Kristol writes that the polls' results seem bogus due to the disingenuous responses to the presidential vote question in number 12:



Looking at these results, one becomes pretty inclined to declare this a rather bad poll. As Kristol rightly points a poll that shows Obama one point behind in Arkansas, when carried Arkansas in 2012 by 24 points. Similarly, the Kentucky sample is +3 Romney when reality was +23. The Louisiana sample is +3 Obama in a state Obama lost by 17, and the North Carolina sample is +7 Obama in a state he lost by 3, he notes. Feel free to dismiss it as "right wing media" but it was noteworthy enough for the BBC to mention it (which is where I read it first)

Nate Cohn writes that this can be explained by the "well-known bias toward the victor in post-election surveys. Respondents who voted for the loser often say that they don’t remember whom they supported, or say they supported someone else". This seems rather far-fetched to me however, considering polls show Romney victories in hypothetical re-votes and that the President is considerably underwater in the opinion polls, particularly in these states. It would seem the results of this poll, then, cannot amount for much.

The presidential vote question was asked of all adults. The 2014 election questions were asked of only registered voters.

You have to admit that it is a bit strange to see Romney in the twenties and thirties in states that he won.
If only 60% of the population votes, and someone gets 60% of the vote, they have just got 36% of the total vote.

As for the rest... I've read that post-election, when you ask someone who they voted for, a significant proportion of people who voted for the loser will say they voted for the winner. Something to keep in mind.

I mentioned this.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Realm of Generations on: Today at 12:13:30 am
...
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) on: April 23, 2014, 09:59:26 pm
William Kristol writes that the polls' results seem bogus due to the disingenuous responses to the presidential vote question in number 12:



Looking at these results, one becomes pretty inclined to declare this a rather bad poll. As Kristol rightly points a poll that shows Obama one point behind in Arkansas, when carried Arkansas in 2012 by 24 points. Similarly, the Kentucky sample is +3 Romney when reality was +23. The Louisiana sample is +3 Obama in a state Obama lost by 17, and the North Carolina sample is +7 Obama in a state he lost by 3, he notes. Feel free to dismiss it as "right wing media" but it was noteworthy enough for the BBC to mention it (which is where I read it first)

Nate Cohn writes that this can be explained by the "well-known bias toward the victor in post-election surveys. Respondents who voted for the loser often say that they don’t remember whom they supported, or say they supported someone else". This seems rather far-fetched to me however, considering polls show Romney victories in hypothetical re-votes and that the President is considerably underwater in the opinion polls, particularly in these states. It would seem the results of this poll, then, cannot amount for much.
4  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is the update's existance a good thing for BushOklahoma? on: April 23, 2014, 06:47:14 pm
It certainly hurts his reputation. But judging by the quality of  advice his family gives him I don't think we're hurting him.

Surely a lot of us are now openly mallicoid t I doubt anyone started that way; it was his constant refusal to listen that did it. If there are some who are openly malicious then it's because o
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France: new Regions on: April 23, 2014, 12:27:46 pm
They are trying to abolish the départements?!!!
6  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: lunch(eon) on: April 23, 2014, 10:41:07 am
Lief I've never seen Dinosaur BBQ lunches before! That sounds fantastic.
7  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Is "Hey Soul Sister" one of the worst songs ever? on: April 23, 2014, 10:23:55 am
I feel like it's mildly racially insensitive.
8  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: AggregateDemand on: April 23, 2014, 10:22:21 am
F[inks] off.
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Bacon King Institute of Comedy on: April 23, 2014, 10:18:25 am
If it looks like a duck and acts like a duck and quacks like a duck...

Stones in glass houses dude.

But a bird in the hand is the smoking gun that broke the camel's back, n'est-ce pas?
10  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: WalterMitty vs. MilesC56 on: April 23, 2014, 10:17:42 am
This is insulting to Miles.
11  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: The Proportional Representation Act is garbage on: April 22, 2014, 09:10:33 pm
Surely the most straightforward solution is to simply permit the vacancy for the remainder of the term?
12  General Politics / Economics / Re: Which is worse Hyperinflation or Deflation? on: April 22, 2014, 04:14:33 pm
People are actually arguing hyperinflation is worse than deflation? My God this forum is full of morons.

Huh Hyperinflation is worse than deflation. This is not actually a remotely controversial position.

Deflation basically means economic depression. Hyperinflation might eat out most of growth, but it doesn't generally lead to the same lows.

Well, speaking purely about economies, would you rather live in 1990s Japan or 1920s Germany?

Sorry, Antonio, but--while I'm not an expert on the subject and could be misinformed by the economic education that I do have--I'm going to have to part company with you on this one.

You don't need to be an expert in order to know the answer, and you, indeed, are correct.
13  General Politics / Economics / Re: This is how your 2013 tax dollars were spent. on: April 22, 2014, 04:08:49 pm
What is exactly is meant by government expenditure on "government"?
14  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Pacific Voting Booth: Executive Department Amendment (Federal) on: April 22, 2014, 01:32:04 pm
Aye.
15  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Game of Thrones on: April 22, 2014, 01:21:21 pm
I sometimes wonder if Martin created GOT as a satirical middle-aged version of Austria, with all it's incest, rape, lunatics, people in dungeons, cunts, whores, dicks, etc.

No.
16  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of Midwest Governor Windjammer (Kids, nuclear) on: April 22, 2014, 11:36:37 am
Restrictions on the construction of nuclear power plants have been passed historically, and Minnesota has a ban on construction outright, which reads as follows:

Quote
The [power] commission may not issue a certificate of need for the construction of a new nuclear-powered electric generating plant.

http://www.ncsl.org/research/environment-and-natural-resources/states-restrictions-on-new-nuclear-power-facility.aspx

As for closing existing plants, the least disruptive way to do that is to have a prohibition on the extension of operating licenses. But I'm not sure what power the states- here, the regions- have on that. The Federal NRC has control over licensing, but the regional energy commission could have some certification process.
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should I delete Update? on: April 22, 2014, 09:22:52 am
Looking at our mutual friends (six!) it strikes me that they would be the sort of people who might have a certain disdain, if a passive one, for the sort of middle American like Bushie. I say this if because I distinctly remember an episode with one such person, one of these mutual friends, who in a conversation with a girl from Oklahoma said to us "if it wasn't for people like [this girl], I'd completely think everyone there was hoplessly insane" and then the conversation turned to the Westboro Baptists and other such things.

The point is knowing the sort of people they come off as across, they'd find this all to be funny and self-validating. A strange use of one's time, yes, but there'd be nothing wrong in trying to expose Bushie's blatant hypocrisy and disgregard for any sort of self discipline or appeal to that effect. Which would be the reaction, I think, of any new reader, but people like that in particular, your Ivy Leaguers and the like of the sort that are able to pursue careers in dance in the like... I think the sort of person I am referring to is obvious. And frankly, I doubt they'd be wide of the mark. I've thought of doing such things myself.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / The Good Old Days are back! White House courts young heirs on: April 22, 2014, 12:21:15 am
White House Hosts ‘Next Generation’ Young and Rich

Quote
On a crisp morning in late March, an elite group of 100 young philanthropists and heirs to billionaire family fortunes filed into a cozy auditorium at the White House.

Their name tags read like a catalog of the country’s wealthiest and most influential clans: Rockefeller, Pritzker, Marriott. They were there for a discreet, invitation-only summit hosted by the Obama administration to find common ground between the public sector and the so-called next-generation philanthropists, many of whom stand to inherit billions in private wealth.

“Moon shots!” one administration official said, kicking off the day on an inspirational note to embrace the White House as a partner and catalyst for putting their personal idealism into practice.

The well-heeled group seemed receptive. “I think it’s fantastic,” said Patrick Gage, a 19-year-old heir to the multibillion-dollar Carlson hotel and hospitality fortune. “I’ve never seen anything like this before.” Mr. Gage, physically boyish with naturally swooping Bieber bangs, wore a conservative pinstripe suit and a white oxford shirt. His family’s Carlson company, which owns Radisson hotels, Country Inns and Suites, T.G.I. Friday’s and other brands, is an industry leader in enforcing measures to combat trafficking and involuntary prostitution.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/20/fashion/white-house-hosts-next-generation-young-and-rich.html?from=us.politics&_r=0

Truly, the good days have returned, and maximum efficiency has been reached, for our leaders have finally recognised that the power lies in these people, the hereditary class, as it did in the Golden Age of our society at the turn of the last century, and not the common rabble! A Great Society, of grace and splendor, and selflessness, of clean politics- and the White House is getting a leg up! Where is the GOP?
19  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: The College Compendium on: April 22, 2014, 12:02:11 am
You guys who like telonovela nonsense will enjoy my latest contribution to this thread. I got friend-zoned by someone I accidentally fell madly in love with (as it turns out I'm a romantic and kind of conservative in a few ways). Pree normal but I was also told that I was very attractive and that she needed to get to know me better before committing. Socially inept females confuse me. Say no and be like "ur a nice guy" or something if you want to let me down easy. Don't make up lies or be inadvertently mean.

Hmm. As am I currently wondering how to talk to the girl I find sitting on our stoop in the evenings smoking and drinking, usually, what appears to be a glass of whisky. I've barely seen her, but the chutzpah is what gets me.

I think this thread is quite necessary, by the way.
20  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: People who wear bow ties tend to be... on: April 21, 2014, 11:50:47 pm
Supremely excellent.
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should I delete Update? on: April 21, 2014, 11:39:10 pm
Holy mother of God, Mondale and I have like six mutual friends on Facebook... and then some of his have up to a dozen! (they go here, it looks like)! Truly, it is a small world that some of us live in.
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: did your posts per day avg. nosedive... on: April 21, 2014, 11:31:24 pm
Well, I can find it was 7.872 before, now it is 7.856... a little blip.
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should I delete Update? on: April 21, 2014, 11:26:33 pm
Apparently Mondale made a page with about two views linking to the Atlas. Nothing more. As for Bushie, let him reap what he has sown. Let him reap it all, to the last.
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update Season XIV: The new chapter on: April 21, 2014, 11:24:48 pm
So Bushie is at another call centre? Keep on tainting that name, Chris.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Realm of Generations on: April 21, 2014, 08:57:02 pm
The Earls have been the following:

George Burgess, 1st Earl of Stratfield KB PC
Born in Stratfield Mortimer in 1734. Married Hon. Anne Whichnour Somerville, daughter of James Somerville, 12th Lord Somerville and Anne Bayntun, in December 1748. He gained the rank of Captain in the service of the General Humphrey Bland's Dragoons, fought with distinction at Culloden, and succeeded the General as Governor of Gibraltar. He held the office of Comptroller General of the Customs. Had been created Baron Stratfield in 1778.  He died on 16 March 1786 at Bath, Somerset, England.
Rupert Burgess, 2nd Earl of Stratfield KCMG
Born in Gibraltar in 1751, studied at Kingswood School and Lincoln College, Oxford. Member of Parliament for Helston from 1780 to 1784 under the Whig whip, settled in the newly born United States in 1784, established large land holdings for the family in Northern New York State consisting of some 2.75 million acres. He married, firstly, Hon. Elizabeth Noel, daughter of Edward Noel, 1st Viscount Wentworth of Wellesborough and Judith Lamb, on 19 June 1777.2 He married, secondly, Anne Montolieu, daughter of Lt.-Col. Lewis Charles Montolieu, Baron de St. Hypolite, on 16 December 1780. He died on 1822.
Lesley Burgess, 3rd Earl of Stratfield
Born in Bath on 12 May 1776, studied at Trinity School in New York and Christ Church College, Oxford. Was primarily occupied with business and trading in New York, managing the town interests of the estate. Served as Surveyor General of the Northwest Territory from 1812 to 1815. Married Eleanor Eden, eldest daughter of Lord Auckland and rumoured fiance of Pitt the Younger, on 12 July 1788.  Built the family's country residence, the first Blackwood House, as a gift for his wife. Organised the construction of the New York & Erie Railroad to connect the family holdings to the city, however, due to financial pressures and anti-rent sentiment, was compelled to sell-off of five-sixths of the Burgess estate, reducing it to some 450,000 acres. Sponsored the establishment of the Genesee College in Lima, later Burgess University. Died on 11 January 1860, at Blackwood House nr. the village of Blackwood.
Theophilus Chauncey Burgess, 4th Earl of Stratfield
Born in New York on 18 November 1809 and thus the first Burgess family head to be born in the United States. Studied at Trinity School and law at Columbia College, was admitted to the New York Bar in 1825. Practiced law in New York, and was a successful broker and banker, leaving most matters of the estate to his son, Henry. Was elected to the State Assembly as a Whig and later Republican between 1841 and 1853, holding a number of important commissions and appointive offices. Was elected Governor in 1856 and served between 1857 and 1863, being re-elected three times. He was appointed major general of volunteers in September 1861 and commanded the Department of New York until he was discharged in 1864 serving simultaneously as governor and head of the military department. After the war, oversaw the refurbishment of the Erie Railroad. Donated generously to the Genesee College, so that it was renamed Burgess College, and then University in his honour. Married, firstly, Grace Fletcher Webster, daughter of the celebrated Senator Daniel Webster and his wife of the same name, on 12 June 1830, was wid. on 28 April 1848. Married, secondly, Mary Alida Astor, daughter of William Backhouse Astor, on 27 July 1851. Died on 11 December 1893, in New York.
Henry Rupert Burgess, 5th Earl of Stratfield GCB GCVO PC
Born in New York on 13 February 1834, studied at Trinity School and Yale College. Married Katherine Elizabeth Hamilton, daughter of James Hamilton, 1st Duke of Abercorn, on 26 October 1858, wid September 1874. Was engaged in the upkeep and modernisation of the Burgess Estate and significantly expanded Blackwood House in a number of building campaigns, commissioning the Scottish architect David Cousin to design a master scheme for the House in 1860 in a neo-Gothic style that would completely envelop the existing Federal-style residence. Lived at Blackwood until 1878, when he removed to Berkshire and took up residence at Basildon. Was the beneficiary of a writ of acceleration in 1880 and sat on the Conservative benches as the Baron Stratfield. He served as Vice-Lord Lieutenant of Berkshire from 1890 to 1901, and from 1898 to 1900 was Lord High Chamberlain of the Household. He was later accompanied by his younger son, Nicholas, who shared his English inclination and was thus created Viscount Stratley in 1899. Built Lardon Chase House on the Burgess Estate in Berkshire for the benefit of Lord Stratley. Died on 22 July 1903, at Basildon nr. Basildon Village, Berkshire.
William Rupert Burgess, 6th Earl of Stratfield
Born at Blackwood on 12 August 1866, and educated at Trinity School and Yale College. Strongly devout and conservative to the point of aseticism, William Burgess Sr. was deeply Anglophobic above all else, a characteristic often attributed by biographers to his father's preference for that country and perceived childhood neglect. He unsuccessfully attempted to surrender his peerage and dispose of Basildon Park, and failing that, thoroughly neglected the house alongside Blackwood, instead residing at a "remarkably severe" residence on New York's Upper East Side. He served as Governor of New York from 1915 to 1922. He was selected as Calvin Coolidge's running mate in 1924 and thus served as Vice President of the United States from 1925 to 1929. He was an unsuccessful candidate for the Republican nomination for President in 1928, the contradictions between his low-church Old Right conservatism and "wet" populist rhetoric being difficult to reconcile amongst the convention. Afterwards his politics took on an increasingly radical and isolationist bent, becoming at times sympathetic towards authoritarian movements and possessing anti-Semitic rhetoric. Burgess ardently opposed US entry into both World Wars and was a strong backer of the America First Committee, giving $250,000 to the organisation and occupying key leadership positions. He died in New York, on 7 March 1947.
William Rupert Burgess, 7th Earl of Stratfield KG GCMG GCVO
Born in New York on 8 October 1899, educated at Lawrenceville and Yale University. Served in the United States Army during the First World War, and the worked as a banker under J. P. Morgan, Jr. and eventually acquired a sizeable fortune of his own in the 1920s. Left shortly before the Crash of 1929 to become an official in the Treasury Department for a brief while before being elected to the New York State Senate. Was a Reserve officer during the Second World War, but saw no action. He was elected Majority Leader of the New York State Senate in 1944 and would remain in that position until 1947 when he was elected to the Senate, where he would remain until 1965. As family head, Burgess forged new ties with the family's British heritage and undertook a significant restoration project at Basildon Park, which was opened to the public. He attended Queen Elizabeth II's coronation in 1953, in full peer's regalia, and kept ties with leaders there thereafter, eventually becoming honorary patron of the British Council and a Knight of the Garter. He married Edith Catherine Gould, Daughter of Jay Gould, the industrialist, on 12 March 1922. He died on 6 April 1977, in Boston.
William Rupert Burgess, 8th Earl of Stratfield GCMG KCVO
Born in Rochester on September 13, 1928, and educated at Lawrenceville and Yale University. Received a law degree from Columbia University and was admitted to the New York Bar. He was elected to the House of Representatives in New York's 37th congressional district in 1962, and was re-elected four times (in 1964, 1968, 1970, and 1972). In 1973 he was appointed Ambassador to the United Nations by Richard Nixon, then in 1975 Chief of the U.S. Liaison Office in Beijing.Was elected Senator from New York in 1980, and was reelected in 1986. In 1989 he was nominated by President George H.W. Bush to serve as United States Secretary of State. Married on May 28, 1952 Alice Wadsworth, daughter of James Jeremiah Wadsworth, later United States Ambassador to the United Nations, wid. 3 February 1998. Has been a trustee of a number of charitable organisations, including the Chinese Institute, the Asia Society, the American–Iranian Council, the Atlantic Council, the British Memorial Garden, and many others.
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