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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: May 22, Finally TRUMP is ahead vs Hillary by RCP Average(first time) on: May 23, 2016, 07:53:01 pm
We need to jackhammer away with males. She's doing so horribly and male voters are the least likely to sway back and forth. If we can get too many whites to vote against her, all she will have is the McGovern rainbow coalition.

LOL.
We have so many Republicans and trump followers here on Atlas, saying that they hate when the "other side" keeps claiming that the trump campaign is nothing but "white male" voters.
Yet, you have a Pub here, advocating this EXACT campaign strategy. And to just forget about everyone else, including people of color ('the McGovern rainbow coalition").


I'm not proud of the divisions of our country, but this is a campaign, dammit. If I were in charge of Trump's campaign, I'd carpet-bomb the airwaves with Hillary barking, Hillary's coal comment, Hillary's liberal positions. The most unflattering images. Lee Atwater style. WEAK. WEAK. WEAK. In politics, it's about repetition. Trump strong, Hillary weak. Hillary hurts, Trump wins. Over and over and over.

It may not work with all voters, but this certainly has the feel of a change election. Hillary isn't change, Trump is, and that should terrify Hillary supporters.


I will be among the first to admit that I am indeed terrified at the prospect of a vile and idiotic psychopath who regularly dog-whistles the Horst-Wessel-Lied being elected President of the United States. (I have a great deal of empathy for people who don't want to vote for Hillary Clinton, but anyone actively supporting her near-certain Republican opponent is spitting on everything good and decent in Western Civilization.)
h
 
Interesting that Obama and Hillary have each in their own ways spent their entire lives trying to destroy Western Civilization.  They are both post-modern that way whereas Trump is more of a traditionally modern guy. 

Destroy Western Civilization? There is no way you can actually believe that. Obama and Clinton are actually trying to help people. Obama passed the stimulus, health care reform, and reduced the deficit. Clinton has fought for women's rights and healthcare for children and families for many years. That is the opposite of destroying Western Civilization.

If you want someone who will destroy Western civilization, you institute extreme authoritarian laws and increase the national debt by ten trillion dollars, like Donald Trump will do if he is elected.
If you read history at university, than their is a chance that you could grasp what western civ. IS, but judging by your comments that is not the case. 

Western Ethics and Philosophy is based on an Aristotle concept of a tangible reality.  Hillary and Obama reject nearly all tangible reality (because it is very often inconvenient for them).  Therefor, On that simple fact they can not futher western civ.

Your first point "trying to help people" is a huge red flag.  intentions are virtually meaningless.  A A-hole like Trump has actually helped more people than a no-drama, cool-guy Obama, but you care about "intentions" not tangible realities.   
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Early Election 2016 Prediction: Donald Trump Wins! on: May 23, 2016, 07:41:46 pm


Yep, MN might not ever happen, but it could start polling like a mirage.  Penn is almost certain to move to Trump's collumn, MI will move that way, WI is razor close without Obama on the ballot. 
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: IF, Trump wins FL, OH, PA. THAN, what state puts him over the top? on: May 23, 2016, 07:31:26 pm
I really want to hear your reasoning for Washington being a toss-up, but not Oregon.

I will likely think your answer is incredibly stupid, but I'm morbidly curious.

I never said anything was a toss-up, several scenarios are possible.
If the North West came into play quite-possibly Oregon would as well. 
If I had to favor Washington coming into play before Oregon (I'm not necessarily) than I'd say it was do to a larger suburban population overcoming or counter balancing fringe left voting blocks.
Oregon could come into play before Washington by a less complicated Rural v Urban dynamic. 
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Hillary really in trouble? on: May 23, 2016, 07:18:41 pm
Has Hillary ever surged in polls DURING a campaign?   

Uh, yes?

The polls showed the 2000 Senate election to be a dead heat. She won by double digits. She won NH in 2008 when every poll showed Obama winning easily. She skyrocketed up after the first debate and the Benghazi hearing. Earlier on the national polls were deadlocked, now she's up double digits. I'm sure there's more examples too.

She won a race in the state of New York with a "D" by her name... whatever,
 
I'm talking tend line momentum not she lost Iowa by 5 and won New Hampshire by 10 two weeks later before long term decline and loss, than she trended up after McCain rapped it up and GOPers crossed over.

5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: May 22, Finally TRUMP is ahead vs Hillary by RCP Average(first time) on: May 23, 2016, 06:10:46 pm
We need to jackhammer away with males. She's doing so horribly and male voters are the least likely to sway back and forth. If we can get too many whites to vote against her, all she will have is the McGovern rainbow coalition.

LOL.
We have so many Republicans and trump followers here on Atlas, saying that they hate when the "other side" keeps claiming that the trump campaign is nothing but "white male" voters.
Yet, you have a Pub here, advocating this EXACT campaign strategy. And to just forget about everyone else, including people of color ('the McGovern rainbow coalition").


I'm not proud of the divisions of our country, but this is a campaign, dammit. If I were in charge of Trump's campaign, I'd carpet-bomb the airwaves with Hillary barking, Hillary's coal comment, Hillary's liberal positions. The most unflattering images. Lee Atwater style. WEAK. WEAK. WEAK. In politics, it's about repetition. Trump strong, Hillary weak. Hillary hurts, Trump wins. Over and over and over.

It may not work with all voters, but this certainly has the feel of a change election. Hillary isn't change, Trump is, and that should terrify Hillary supporters.


I will be among the first to admit that I am indeed terrified at the prospect of a vile and idiotic psychopath who regularly dog-whistles the Horst-Wessel-Lied being elected President of the United States. (I have a great deal of empathy for people who don't want to vote for Hillary Clinton, but anyone actively supporting her near-certain Republican opponent is spitting on everything good and decent in Western Civilization.)
h
 
Interesting that Obama and Hillary have each in their own ways spent their entire lives trying to destroy Western Civilization.  They are both post-modern that way whereas Trump is more of a traditionally modern guy. 
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: OpEd: This is how fascism comes to America on: May 23, 2016, 06:01:47 pm
...Maybe come up with a single thing that isn't factual.  I won't hold my breath. 
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: "...there is a decent chance that the American experiment will be over." on: May 23, 2016, 05:54:39 pm
The Left is in such denial about Obama that they are projecting all of his sins on Trump.
Pull quote fixed:
"The American Republic stands threatened by the first overtly anti-democratic leader of a large party in its modern history—an authoritarian with no grasp of history, no impulse control, and no apparent barriers on his will to power. The right thing to do, for everyone who believes in liberal democracy, is to gather around and work to defeat Barrack Obama."

My Head is exploding...
Many of us think that it would be terrible if the radical-revisionist reading of the Second Amendment created by the Heller decision eight years ago was kept in place in a constitutional court; many on the other side think it would be terrible if that other radical decision, Roe v. Wade, continued to be found to be compatible with the constitutional order. What we all should agree on is that the one thing worse would be to have no constitutional order left to argue about.

1) acknowledging that the second amendment exists (it does) is an equivalent to claiming that parental killing authority is a right defined in the constitution (it isn't)... wow.   

2) Books have been written listing the hundreds -to- thousands of constitutional violations by the Obama administration and this guy is worried about a hypothetical Trump administration?   
certain facts vs a slim theoretical potential
The dems fret over the theory. 
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Hillary really in trouble? on: May 23, 2016, 05:30:17 pm
Has Hillary ever surged in polls DURING a campaign?   
She Faded the entire race against Obama until Crossover GOP voters backed her in operation chaos.
She has faded the entire race against Bernie "the freaking commie" Sanders. 
Trump is overtaking her after about a week or two of focus....
Has she ever shown any ability to reverse a slide like this?

Trump has been on a 'constant' rise the entire race...

It is time to start considering a Trump lead of 5 -to- 10 points and what that will look like electorally because that is most likely coming relatively soon. 

...Her looming criminal indictment and her dozens of past scandals + the foundation corruption is an unlimited reservoir of ammo against her and so far that haven't found anything on Trump.   
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: OpEd: This is how fascism comes to America on: May 23, 2016, 05:11:28 pm
Everything he says is Trump-Fascism has been done by Obama...
So given that fact,
1) is Obama a dangerous fascist? 
2) Will Clinton continue Obama's Fascism? 
3) Aren't we already Fascist? How could it come to be by Trump, if Obama already brought it?
4) Is Trump the lesser Fascist compared to Hillary?

...Where has this guy been for 8 years?
 
 
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump goes after Bill Clinton on affairs / rape allegations megathread on: May 19, 2016, 09:53:30 pm
Dems are amazing. 
Hillary attacked the dozens of women her husband assaulted/used and he is the only thing close to an "accomplishment" on her resume... making the many, many, many "old" cases relevant.
The
1) "energizer" money trail
2)"Lolita Express" trips to
3) sex island compound
Are all new cases. 
Will she do anything with regard to Bill Cosby, I mean Bill Clinton's repeated behavior.   
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: IF, Trump wins FL, OH, PA. THAN, what state puts him over the top? on: May 19, 2016, 06:35:58 pm
Why on Earth do you show WA and NJ as tossups? Your map is dumb. If NC is a tossup, CO is going to Clinton. If WA is a tossup, the Democrats are getting far less than 170 EVs. Your map makes no sense.

To answer your question, though, if FL, OH, and PA go to Trump, then PA (or FL) will be the state that puts Trump over the top. NC would also go Trump in that situation, but well before FL or PA.

Yea, CO should be toss as well, but than it becomes a pick 1, 2, or 3 over the top question.  Which is fine, to discuss as well.    
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / IF, Trump wins FL, OH, PA. THAN, what state puts him over the top? on: May 19, 2016, 06:28:25 pm

IF, Trump wins FL, OH, PA
THAN, what state puts him over the top?
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New Jersey goes Republican? on: May 19, 2016, 06:25:23 pm
Trump will likely invest 'HUGE' in Pennsylvania (and probably win)... The Philly media market spills into New Jersey... It will be interesting what effect that has.    

Yes, Trump will invest huge in PA, OH and FL and ignore all the rest.
Don't believe his 15 swing states strategy - it's coming straignht from the Art of the Deal.

I think those are the top 3 for sure, but he needs one more to win... or are you assuming he gets NC if he gets those?
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Hillary polling so badly? on: May 19, 2016, 06:06:11 pm
1)
Very few Americans like her, even democrats.
2)
Because she's a terrible, unlikeable candidate.
3)
Trump is actually a likable person, even if you DO NOT like him.  
4)
Trump is systematically destroying the democrats built in media advantage.  
5)
Trump is not a doctrinaire Republican or Conservative.  He breaks from party and ideology on a few issues to take 'Nationalist' positions.  This is splintering off sections of the democrat coalition and bringing new people into politics.
6)
Hillary Clinton has not articulated a legitimate reason for her campaign.  
7)
Clinton fatigue is real.  Who wants these people around?  They have become more brazen in their criminality and scandals than they were before.    

Yeah because making fun of a disabled reporter makes you likable.
Obviously you don't know many 'real' Americans.
That is actually an example of him being "likable, EVEN IF YOU DON'T LIKE HIM"
A hack reporter attacks unprofessionally and Trump defends himself by hitting back...  impolitely, but effectively.  Off the cuff, without a filter, with some humor... You may not like, but it is likable.    

Contrast, the humorless shrill robotic cyborg that lacks any ability to connect with an actual human being named Hillary Rodham     
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: OpEd: This is how fascism comes to America on: May 19, 2016, 05:56:53 pm
A lot of Republicans don't care about conservatism and this election proves it.

Amen. The mask has been revealed and all that rhetoric about "muh constitution" and "muh small government" was just rhetoric and nothing more.

...basically.  It is kind of complicated.  I have often wondered if a national candidates ideological scorecard matters when weighed against other factors like:
1) ability to win
2) ability to call out democrat/media crap effectively
etc.

If you are a constitutional-ist and a federalist, than just keep insane democrats out of the white house and govern from the legislature and the states... like you should.

Trump will be directly involved in:
1)appointing non-lunatic judges
2)conducting a sane foreign policy
3)cutting a trade deal or two 
4)boarder security / immigration reform

5)maybe reigning in the lunatic EPA
6)appointing a cabinet obviously

Everything else is the states or congressional proposal/deal making.
so, really who cares how pure the guy is.  Democrats can't have the white house is the bottom line. 

Trumps will get 2 major issues done personally (the nationalist two) and delegate the rest to party loyalists and conservatives. 
I can live with that... It's pretty reasonable.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Hillary polling so badly? on: May 19, 2016, 05:33:11 pm
1)
Very few Americans like her, even democrats.
2)
Because she's a terrible, unlikeable candidate.
3)
Trump is actually a likable person, even if you DO NOT like him. 
4)
Trump is systematically destroying the democrats built in media advantage. 
5)
Trump is not a doctrinaire Republican or Conservative.  He breaks from party and ideology on a few issues to take 'Nationalist' positions.  This is splintering off sections of the democrat coalition and bringing new people into politics.
6)
Hillary Clinton has not articulated a legitimate reason for her campaign. 
7)
Clinton fatigue is real.  Who wants these people around?  They have become more brazen in their criminality and scandals than they were before.     
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: OpEd: This is how fascism comes to America on: May 19, 2016, 05:14:09 pm
My point is that nationalism is mainstream and always was represented by both parties to some extent, until dems started going nuts in 68 and Republican elites went ultra-internationalist on a few issues more recently.  

People seem to be dense about "cooperation".  It isn't a goal in itself.  You build partnerships when it makes sense and you don't when it doesn't.  You don't "cooperate" when it harms you severely.  Apparently that is a Fascist doctrine that Truman and FDR subscribed to and is now horrifying.                

You invent a straw man. Nobody in US politics has ever objected to puting US interests first, and no prominent US politician has every done anything else. If any US presidential candidate has ever acted against US interests, it is Donald Trump. In fact, the only nationalist candidate in this race in the sense of Truman/FDR/Eisenhower/Reagan/Bush/Kennedy, you name it, is Hillary Clinton.

The choice in this election is very clear. If you care about the United States of America, you vote Hillary Clinton. If you want to destroy America and its way of life, you vote Donald Trump. As simple as that.

Maybe walk through how that would be true in a linear fashion... I'm guessing you can't because it's probably impossible.

Hillary Clinton has never done anything (accomplishments... she has committed crimes and destroyed things), much less something in the interest of the country.  She has accepted money from foreign governments and their agents, who obviously have interests conflicting with the United States (by definition).  

Trump hasn't been bribed by foreigners, is a builder, and a successful negotiator.  

The proof is when you bring up changing trade deals or immigration.  Both issues need to be addressed to prevent continued harm to the country (obviously).  The Dems and some GOPers freak out like you're worshiping the devil if you advocate a pro-American position.  

Hillary Clinton has quite possibly staked out an anti-American position on every conceivable issue... Trying to think of an exception is something I don't have the time to research.  It would be like finding a needle in a haystack.      

It is in her nature to pander to small or fictional grievances in order to gain votes... actually acting out your panders to fictional grievers is by definition harmful to the country.  Additionally, the political art of forming and encouraging the phantom grievance groups has a dividing effect that is harful to the nation particularly from a nationalist perspective.  Anti-marxism and nationalism in america tend to go together, so Hillary can't be a nationalist because of her proximity to neo-marxist acttivities.     
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: OpEd: This is how fascism comes to America on: May 19, 2016, 04:08:36 pm
My point is that nationalism is mainstream and always was represented by both parties to some extent, until dems started going nuts in 68 and Republican elites went ultra-internationalist on a few issues more recently. 

People seem to be dense about "cooperation".  It isn't a goal in itself.  You build partnerships when it makes sense and you don't when it doesn't.  You don't "cooperate" when it harms you severely.  Apparently that is a Fascist doctrine that Truman and FDR subscribed to and is now horrifying.                 
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Rasmussen national: Trump +5 on: May 19, 2016, 03:29:43 pm
I can't think of any other political figure whose unfair mischaracterizations have stuck as much as Hillary's. It's honestly astonishing how blind people are not only to the accomplishments of this woman, but also the obvious animating principles of her life's work.
So very true.
...Maybe if it were possible to name a single accomplishment, than people would be able to "see" them. 
A) Riding around in a plane isn't an accomplishment
B) opening up diplomatic relations with Myanmar is a nothing.

Those are the best examples I've ever herd of "Hillary Accomplishments"   
Also, when you can list her failures and crimes for hours it outweighs whatever single accomplishment you struggle to come up with.   
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: OpEd: This is how fascism comes to America on: May 19, 2016, 03:16:19 pm
Vanilla Nationalism aligned with the conservative movement is not Fascism.  We used to have nationalist planks in both parties in this country, Harry Truman wasn't a Fascist, but you would call him one today.  Pursuing The nations interest BEFORE the interests of others isn't Fascism, it's common sense based on logic and reason.       
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Stop overestimating the intelligence of the average voter. Why Trump could win. on: May 19, 2016, 02:56:55 pm
I would say his odds are 10%-30% although maybe lower. He could raise this if he were to tie or beat Clinton in the polls any time between now and the election. A lot could depend on turnout.
So, Trump takes the lead nationally 3 days after your post (you obviously didn't see that coming).  What are his chances now?
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New Jersey goes Republican? on: May 19, 2016, 02:46:30 pm
Trump will likely invest 'HUGE' in Pennsylvania (and probably win)... The Philly media market spills into New Jersey... It will be interesting what effect that has.    
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump slams Clinton for "disgraceful" treatment of husband's mistresses on: May 08, 2016, 04:03:16 pm
Maybe all HRC needs to do is keep running that our principles PAC ad where the woman quotes Donald TRUMP verbatim:

"The thing about women is, you've got to treat them like sh*t."
running ads of trump in his own words has tended to help him, not hurt.  It's like a greatest hits montage.  We saw a similar effect with Obama, but Trump is like nothing seen before.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Three states to watch in a Clinton vs. Trump race ("bellwethers") on: May 08, 2016, 03:59:18 pm
- Ohio
- if Trump wins Ohio: PA; MI
- if Clinton wins Ohio: there is nothing else to look for.
- FL & VA are gone for the GOP this cycle.
Ohio and Florida are always most important.
Trump is probably going to put Rubio or Martinez on the ticket, which probably helps in Florida.
VA is it's own weird thing and probably irrelevant. 
PA, MI, WI are the states to watch to see if Trump is the real deal.  Working Class whites in the rust belt HATE Hillary Clinton and (some/many/we'll see) are energized by Trump to turn out to vote or flip from the dems. 
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How does TRUMP possibly win? on: May 08, 2016, 03:47:16 pm


Donald Trump (R-NY)/Scott Walker (R-WI): 272 EVs, 50.2%
Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): 266 EVs, 49%

Not likely, but possible. A little unorthodox, but maybe Hillary focuses on courting hispanics and women so much that she loses whites nearly 2-1.
Also the Clinton/Warren likely disaster is amplified when Trump chooses "reasonable" Walker, enabling him to win WI, MN, and MI by razor-thin margins.
This Rust Belt thing is probably going to happen, it has been a long time coming and Trump knows it.  If Hillary wins, 2018 will be the biggest midterm route in history, which is amazing considering we just came off 2010 & 2014. 
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