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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Bacon King Memorial Good Post Gallery on: August 28, 2015, 03:40:51 am
Lately I have been thinking there is one thing that could hurt him and that is The Bible. After getting criticism for his performance at a values summit last month he has started touting how The Bible is his favorite book and how it is "The Best!"  It seems to me that he has opened himself to have a Sarah Palin with Katie Couric or Herman Cain "Libya Brain Freeze" type of moment with some informed journalist asking him some basic questions about Christianity/The Bible. Because I am fairly certain that he knows j--k sh-t about the Bible. If he completely embarrasses himself talking about God, how well will he do with the base of the GOP?

Hm...I take that as a challenge to write what I would say if I were Trump asked about the Bible.

"Take David. Total outsider, the kid wasn't part of the establishment, wasn't part of the court, he was a shepherd boy! Yet he could tell that things were going wrong in Israel. Losing wars, budget wasn't lining up, everything was just going to hell, and the people in the government didn't have a clue. King Saul...nice guy, right? Saul? Love him, but he was a loser. A total disaster. So David goes to the court and everyone loves the guy, he even negotiated the king's daughter as a bride...someone's clearly read The Art of the Deal, am I right? Israel's threatened by the Philistines, so David, totally naked, goes up to the biggest, toughest of the Philistines and knocks him dead. That's how you negotiate! Take the biggest, strongest enemy and destroy him publicly...who's going to screw you after that? There's a great statue of this...Michelangelo's David...you seen it? This guy's seen it. Powerful stuff...and David had nearly as luxurious hair as I do! I thought about buying that statue once, but I don't have the right building to stick it in yet. Maybe the White House, eh? So David becomes king. People love him, God loves him, Israel's enemies hate him. Did he have a soft spot for beautiful girls? Don't we all? So yes, story of David is really inspirational stuff."
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The CrabCake Bureau of Funny Post Archival on: August 27, 2015, 02:17:28 am
Wow, did Lincoln Chafee use some of his spending money to buy a few supporters?

I don't know, but apparently his campaign managed to scrape together enough money to fly him to Iowa to attend the fair in person:

http://www.statejournal.com/story/29794300/the-latest-chafee-santorum-appeal-for-iowa-support

I don't know how they managed that.  Will they be able to raise enough $ to pay for a return ticket, or will he have to hitchhike back to Rhode Island?


Maybe he can carpool with Webb and O'Malley.

They might stumble into a debate in the car that isn't authorized by the DNC.

3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Ireland General Discussion on: August 19, 2015, 01:02:04 am
Just to add to that, two other useful sources on this and other such matters are:
Adrian Kavanagh's blog
Jason Kelleher's Irish Political Maps blog
4  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: What term to you prefer for Great Britain, Ireland and surrounding islands on: July 27, 2015, 06:54:58 am
The Irish government recommend Britain and Ireland.  

Does it?

Well, it is Wiki info, but their quotes seems legit. Do you disagree?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Isles

Regarding British Isles they got a 2005 statement from the Foreign Minister:

"The British Isles is not an officially recognised term in any legal or inter-governmental sense. It is without any official status. The Government, including the Department of Foreign Affairs, does not use this term. Our officials in the Embassy of Ireland, London, continue to monitor the media in Britain for any abuse of the official terms as set out in the Constitution of Ireland and in legislation. These include the name of the State, the President, Taoiseach and others."

I don't dispute that the use of the term 'British Isles' is loaded and not favoured for use in Ireland, either officially, or in general.

However, nothing in the wiki page, nor in that quote, gives an indication to me that the Government of Ireland recommend the use of the term 'Britain and Ireland' as their preferred alternative to the term 'British Isles', as you assert in the OP.

5  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: What term to you prefer for Great Britain, Ireland and surrounding islands on: July 27, 2015, 01:49:22 am
The Irish government recommend Britain and Ireland. 

Does it?
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish general election on: July 23, 2015, 01:38:53 am
To give some context for the thread - below are the most recent polls (with links to the full released results) and the results of the 2011 General for comparison.

GERedCMBB&A
2011   28 June  28 June  18 July
Fine Gael36282924
Labour19768
Fianna Fáil17202318
Sinn Féin10182117
Green2211
Renua-111
Socialist102NI
People Before Profit1NI1NI
i/O1324*1630

NI Not specifically included in poll results
* Broken down as 23 for Independents, 1 for Other
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: July 22, 2015, 01:20:42 am
The Privy Council is the official channel used by the PM when briefing opposition politicians on national security matters; Harriet Harman was informed about some IS stuff the other day through it.

Yes - but such briefings are at the PM's discretion.
Membership of the Privy Council doesn't appear entitle one to any particularly sensitive information as of right.

At any rate, is there any reason to believe Mr Corbyn is incapable of, or unlikely to, respect the confidentiality of sensitive information?
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: July 21, 2015, 03:14:44 pm
(Does Angus Robertson have PC status?)

Not yet. But I'd expect it sooner or later.
Presumably if Nigel Dodds was entitled to it in 2010, Robertson meets the requisite standard.


Problem with Corbyn is that he's never held a front bench post, Cabinet or Shadow Cabinet. Thrusting him to the top job like that will be problematic. Also, considering his viewpoints, if I was in David Cameron's shoes, I'd be rather concerned about giving him the Privy Councillor status that comes with the title of Leader of the Opposition i.e. access to some pretty secret information.

Is there really? I doubt it.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: July 19, 2015, 06:45:45 am
I don't even think many of the (southern) Irish support a United Ireland any more; more trouble than it's worth for them.

It's not polled often, but there is some data.

On support within the republic for a united Ireland:

DatePollFor   Against
2012MRBI/Irish Times648
2010RedC/Sunday Times5722
2006    RedC/Sunday Business Post   8010

10  General Politics / Economics / Re: Greece to Leave the Euro Zone on: June 29, 2015, 06:45:31 am
Why does leaving the Eurozone have any connection with Greece in the EU? There are plenty of other EU nations not on the Euro.

Because, if I understand things correctly, the only legal mechanism for a Eurozone member to leave the Eurozone is to leave the EU altogether.


Quite.

See here: Withdrawal and expulsion from the EU and EMU some reflections, Phoebus Athanassiou, ECB Legal Working Paper Series, No 10 / December 2009
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6) on: June 26, 2015, 03:18:17 am
The average is live phone polls only. No PPP or YouGov or other IVR and Internet polls.

What level of certainty do we have that “major, nationally recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques” (the relevant criterion, as I understand it, for poll inclusion) means that non-live phone calls will definitively be excluded?
12  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Maps. All the maps. on: June 25, 2015, 07:18:26 am
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 24, 2015, 02:34:24 am
What EU referendum?

I presume this is in reference to:

Quote from: Reuters
A right-wing eurosceptic party that was one of the biggest winners in Denmark's parliamentary election stood by demands including a referendum on European Union membership as its price for joining any center-right coalition.

...

DF has four policy initiatives which Espersen said were a "red line" for the party.

DF has said it wants to hold a referendum on EU membership, although only if Britain does the same after renegotiating its relationship with the European Union. DF wants reform of the EU but does not seek to leave the bloc.

Danes ride euroskeptic wave as kingmaker party sticks to referendum line, Reuters, 19 June 2015
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who Do You Match on iSideWith? on: June 13, 2015, 01:15:18 pm
81% Bernie Sanders
65% Hillary Clinton
56% Rand Paul
53% Jeb Bush
24% Ben Carson
24% Chris Christie
23% Marco Rubio
20% Scott Walker
18% Mike Huckabee
16% Rick Santorum
12% Ted Cruz
  7% Carly Fiorina
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 09, 2015, 01:44:54 am
Maybe this will be the start of French style "overseas constituencies".

Gibraltar is far too small to be a constituency, no?

Na h-Eileanan an Iar had a population of 27,684 at the 2011 census.

Gibraltar's population was estimated at 29,752 in 2011.
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Post your NEW VoteMatch Grid! on: June 04, 2015, 01:22:59 am
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Ireland General Discussion on: May 29, 2015, 01:41:01 am
Move along, nothing to see here (literally nothing to see if you're relying on NewsTalk or the Irish Independent)...

TheJournal.ie published a story ("Denis O’Brien got ‘extremely favourable’ interest rates from IBRC, Dáil hears") at 16.06 yesterday - but was subsequently taken down. At 21.05 they published "This former minister wants Enda to tell Denis O’Brien to butt out of politics" which note:
Quote from: The Journal.ie
Siteserv, owned by O’Brien’s Millington, has written to Ceann Comhairle Seán Barrett asking for comments made by independent TD Catherine Murphy about its sale to be amended.

The company said Murphy abused her privilege by making false statements during Dáil debates on the issue – a claim denied by the deputy.


The Irish Times published "Denis O’Brien got very low IBRC loan rate, TD claims" at 17.46 - and this also came down. They republished at 23.02 "Catherine Murphy makes Denis O’Brien claims in Dáil". The original story included the sub-heading "Catherine Murphy claims businessman paid 1.25% when 7.5% ‘arguably should’ have applied" - the new post doesn't mention any figures.


RTÉ published "TD outlines details of IBRC-O'Brien relationship" at 18.43. Not sure if it was taken down, but the story was re-posted as per your link at 00.08, including:
Quote from: RTÉ
This afternoon under Dáil privilege, Ms Murphy gave further details of Mr O’Brien’s relationship with IBRC. However, RTÉ is legally restricted from reporting what she said, because to do so would breach the injunction already granted against it.

They apparently lack confidence in the cover provided by Article 15.12 of the Constitution:
Quote from: Bunreacht na hÉireann, Article 15, section 12
All official reports and publications of the Oireachtas or of either House thereof and utterances made in either House wherever published shall be privileged.


At 02.30, the Independent published: "Murphy uses Dáil privilege to raise O'Brien finances".

Nothing in The Examiner or on NewsTalk or Today FM yet that I can see.
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Ireland General Discussion on: May 29, 2015, 01:16:14 am
Labour are to lose their 5th TD during this Dáil today.

Nulty (subsequently resigned from the Dáil)
Shortall (not coming back)
Broughan (not coming back)
Penrose (since returned)
Keaveney (gone to FF)
Ferris (due to return)
McNamara (?)

Yeah, I wasn't counting Penrose or Ferris as their return always looked likely.

Mind you so does McNamara's:

Quote from: The Irish Times
“I want to stand for the Labour Party at the next election. I believe the Labour Party has done a good job in government,” Mr McNamara said.

...

Party whip Emmet Stagg said it was open to Mr McNamara to apply to the rejoin the parliamentary party, and his application would be considered by TDs and Senators at such a time.
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Ireland General Discussion on: May 28, 2015, 07:08:39 am
Labour are to lose their 5th TD during this Dáil today.
This one comes over the sale of Aer Lingus.

Quote from: The Irish Times
Labour Party backbencher Michael McNamara is to vote against the Government in a Dáil motion on the sale of Aer Lingus later today.

The Clare TD will automatically lose the party whip.

...

“There are questions I have…questions unanswered, and, in that context, I am not prepared to gamble with what I believe is the key to the economic development of all of this state,’’ he added.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/labour-td-to-vote-against-government-on-aer-lingus-sale-1.2229181
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Ireland General Discussion on: May 25, 2015, 07:23:05 am
Barely a day after gaining a member to the parliamentary party, Fianna Fáil have lost one.
Senator Averil Power has resigned from the party.

Quote from: Averil Power
The party’s cynical and cowardly approach to the marriage equality referendum was the last straw.

For me, a referendum on equality went to the core of what real republicanism should be about.

Our members knew that when they voted for a motion calling for the party to support marriage equality at the 2012 Ard Fheis.

Despite this, the vast majority of the party’s public representatives refused to campaign for it. In fact, I was the only TD or Senator who did a proper canvass for the referendum in their constituency.

Some Fianna Fáil representatives declared publicly that they were voting No. Worse still, others told me they would be voting Yes but were afraid of campaigning for it in case they would lose votes.

Fianna Fáil’s overall approach to the referendum symbolized everything that is wrong with the party.

Fianna Fáil lacks vision, courage and leadership.

It doesn’t know what it stands for and lacks credible policies on most major issues.

It is afraid of taking clear positions in key debates for fear of losing support.

And Micheál Martin has become a leader without any followers. His frontbench are all pulling in different directions and prioritising their personal political success over the needs of the party and the country.

Having lost my faith in Fianna Fáil, I cannot in good conscience knock on doors in Dublin Bay North and ask people to vote for the party.

In my view, they are simply not fit for government.

https://static.rasset.ie/documents/news/statement-by-senator-averil-power-on-resigning-from-fianna-fail.pdf

Ms Power is married to the editor of the Irish Independent, Fionnan Sheehan.

The resignation cuts Fianna Fáil's number of women in parliament to 1 - and deprives it of one of its few articulate younger members.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015 on: May 23, 2015, 08:39:11 am
Carlow-Kilkenny, Complete Tally

22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015 on: May 22, 2015, 08:46:33 am
Can't believe No has had the momentum. My God.

Irish referenda are widely regarded as having a tendency towards narrowing as referendum day approaches.


This SHOULD still hold though, right? Right?

Right
23  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Northern Ireland: Bakers have no right to free speech on: May 21, 2015, 03:12:40 am
Doesn't NI require a double majority to pass bills (a majority of Catholic and a majority of Protestant MLAs?)
Not on every vote.  This isn't one that would automatically trigger a double vote, and even then the support level required is 60% overall plus 40% of both the Unionists and Nationalists.  Conceivably, one could be called for, but even then, that probably only delays adoption of SSM by a decade at the most assuming neither the courts nor Westminster intervene in the interim.

This Assembly has voted on Marriage Equality motions in 2012, 2013, 2014, and most recently just last month.

The DUP did raise a petition of concern regarding the Marriage Equality Motion on three of those occasions - which forces a cross-community vote. They (nor any assembly party) have no qualms using the measure whenever it suits.

On all votes the Nationalist bloc voted absolutely in favour - with 1 abstention (or strictly speaking a vote both in favour and against) by Alban Maginness (SDLP, N Belfast) on the 2012 vote. (Maginness has absented himself from the subsequent votes.) The Nationalist bloc is inarguably solidly behind marriage equality.

Of the Unionist bloc - the near defunct NI21 (then 2 MLAs, now 1) are in favour. Claire Sugden (independent unionist) voted in favour in 2015 (she's a new MLA since 2014, so wasn't present for the previous votes). Only 2 other unionists voted in favour of either motion. Michael Copeland (UUP, E Belfast) and Danny Kinahan (UUP, S Antrim) have voted in favour 3 times (Kinahan once voted against).

The remaining Unionists, including the entirety of the DUP (38 MLAs), the UUP (with the exception of the two mentioned above, 11 MLAs), TUV (1), UKIP (1) have all consistently voted against the motions.

(Of the Others, the Green votes in favour consistently - and indeed was the originator of the 2012 motion; the Alliance Party appear a bit more muddled. Of their 8 MLAs, 5 appear generally in favour, the remaining 3 would appear to prefer abstentions or to vote against.)


To pass, 40% of Unionists will need to vote in favour. At best it seems there are 5 of 56 Unionists (9%) in favour. One of them, Kinahan won't be in the Assembly after next years elections as he's now an MP. Neither McCrea, nor McCallister (of, and formerly of NI21 respectively), nor Sugden has a safe seat.

On that basis, it's entirely possible (and maybe even likely) that the number of Unionist votes in favour of marriage equality will fall in the next Assembly. That Assembly should last until 2021. I'll hold off on prognosticating beyond that - suffice to note that it's a substantial swing required, and the views of members of the DUP hierarchy on gay issues are evidently not softening very quickly. 

I do believe that is a softness to a couple of the DUP and UUP no votes - but I think any expectation that the Unionist bloc will swing sufficiently in favour of marriage equality to allow it to come into force in the short-medium term is, unfortunately, rather unlikely.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015 on: May 12, 2015, 08:25:28 am
For those of you desperate to know which candidate in the Carlow-Kilkenny by-election best reflects your views, worry no more - Dr Rory Costello (University of Limerick) has surveyed the candidates and put together a who to vote for thingy. Enjoy.

http://whichcandidate.ie

My own results:
%   Party                          Candidate
51   People Before Profit      Adrienne Wallace
49   Labour                        William Quinn
49   Anti-Austerity Alliance   Conor Mac Liam
46   Renua Ireland             Patrick McKee
46   Independent               Breda Gardner
44   Sinn Féin                    Kathleen Funchion
41   Fianna Fáil                  Bobby Aylward
36   Green                          Malcolm Noonan
36   Independent                Elizabeth Hourihane
31   Fine Gael                    David Fitzgerald
31   Independent                Daithí ÓhUallacháin
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 12, 2015, 02:06:03 am
The excellent Irish Political Maps has the relevant election maps from Northern Ireland up:

http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.ie/2015/05/uk-general-election-2015-northern.html
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