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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015 on: May 23, 2015, 08:39:11 am
Carlow-Kilkenny, Complete Tally

2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015 on: May 22, 2015, 08:46:33 am
Can't believe No has had the momentum. My God.

Irish referenda are widely regarded as having a tendency towards narrowing as referendum day approaches.


This SHOULD still hold though, right? Right?

Right
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Northern Ireland: Bakers have no right to free speech on: May 21, 2015, 03:12:40 am
Doesn't NI require a double majority to pass bills (a majority of Catholic and a majority of Protestant MLAs?)
Not on every vote.  This isn't one that would automatically trigger a double vote, and even then the support level required is 60% overall plus 40% of both the Unionists and Nationalists.  Conceivably, one could be called for, but even then, that probably only delays adoption of SSM by a decade at the most assuming neither the courts nor Westminster intervene in the interim.

This Assembly has voted on Marriage Equality motions in 2012, 2013, 2014, and most recently just last month.

The DUP did raise a petition of concern regarding the Marriage Equality Motion on three of those occasions - which forces a cross-community vote. They (nor any assembly party) have no qualms using the measure whenever it suits.

On all votes the Nationalist bloc voted absolutely in favour - with 1 abstention (or strictly speaking a vote both in favour and against) by Alban Maginness (SDLP, N Belfast) on the 2012 vote. (Maginness has absented himself from the subsequent votes.) The Nationalist bloc is inarguably solidly behind marriage equality.

Of the Unionist bloc - the near defunct NI21 (then 2 MLAs, now 1) are in favour. Claire Sugden (independent unionist) voted in favour in 2015 (she's a new MLA since 2014, so wasn't present for the previous votes). Only 2 other unionists voted in favour of either motion. Michael Copeland (UUP, E Belfast) and Danny Kinahan (UUP, S Antrim) have voted in favour 3 times (Kinahan once voted against).

The remaining Unionists, including the entirety of the DUP (38 MLAs), the UUP (with the exception of the two mentioned above, 11 MLAs), TUV (1), UKIP (1) have all consistently voted against the motions.

(Of the Others, the Green votes in favour consistently - and indeed was the originator of the 2012 motion; the Alliance Party appear a bit more muddled. Of their 8 MLAs, 5 appear generally in favour, the remaining 3 would appear to prefer abstentions or to vote against.)


To pass, 40% of Unionists will need to vote in favour. At best it seems there are 5 of 56 Unionists (9%) in favour. One of them, Kinahan won't be in the Assembly after next years elections as he's now an MP. Neither McCrea, nor McCallister (of, and formerly of NI21 respectively), nor Sugden has a safe seat.

On that basis, it's entirely possible (and maybe even likely) that the number of Unionist votes in favour of marriage equality will fall in the next Assembly. That Assembly should last until 2021. I'll hold off on prognosticating beyond that - suffice to note that it's a substantial swing required, and the views of members of the DUP hierarchy on gay issues are evidently not softening very quickly. 

I do believe that is a softness to a couple of the DUP and UUP no votes - but I think any expectation that the Unionist bloc will swing sufficiently in favour of marriage equality to allow it to come into force in the short-medium term is, unfortunately, rather unlikely.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015 on: May 12, 2015, 08:25:28 am
For those of you desperate to know which candidate in the Carlow-Kilkenny by-election best reflects your views, worry no more - Dr Rory Costello (University of Limerick) has surveyed the candidates and put together a who to vote for thingy. Enjoy.

http://whichcandidate.ie

My own results:
%   Party                          Candidate
51   People Before Profit      Adrienne Wallace
49   Labour                        William Quinn
49   Anti-Austerity Alliance   Conor Mac Liam
46   Renua Ireland             Patrick McKee
46   Independent               Breda Gardner
44   Sinn Féin                    Kathleen Funchion
41   Fianna Fáil                  Bobby Aylward
36   Green                          Malcolm Noonan
36   Independent                Elizabeth Hourihane
31   Fine Gael                    David Fitzgerald
31   Independent                Daithí ÓhUallacháin
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 12, 2015, 02:06:03 am
The excellent Irish Political Maps has the relevant election maps from Northern Ireland up:

http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.ie/2015/05/uk-general-election-2015-northern.html
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 11, 2015, 10:31:13 am
Labour took Liverpool Walton with 81.3%! that's probably the highest % in this election, couldn't find a higher one in recent campaigns. is this a record?


North Down, 1959, UUP, 98%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Down_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1950s

I hardly consider NI\Ireland elections to be fitting for the title. You got a figure for mainland Britain?


Plaistow, 1918, Labour, 94.9%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plaistow_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

or if by-elections count:
Middleton and Prestwich by-election, 1940, Conservative, 98.7%
(Running just against the British Union of Fascists, during WW2)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middleton_and_Prestwich_by-election,_1940


That wiki entry did point me to:
East Kerry, 1885, Irish Parliamentary Party, 99%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Kerry_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#1885

...which apparently is the record for a Westminster election.
7  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: A fair assessment of the SNP? on: May 11, 2015, 07:58:34 am
What bothers me is their fundamental dishonesty. I mean what is there purpose for running for seats in Parliament?

See here:
http://votesnp.com/docs/manifesto.pdf

By the by, have you never perchance come across any instances of "fundamental dishonesty" from your own local party of preference?



The sooner Scotland gets out of the UK the better. A majority of them are a bunch of whiners, and enjoy having others pay their bills, even while at the same time, wanting to sever off. The sooner Scotland gets out the better in my view. The hell with them. Let them wallow in their own incompetence, as will be found out when they exit. In the meantime, they are wasting far too much of England's time and energy, and are a distraction.

I really don't know where one finds the arrogance to presume that an independent Scotland would be some sort of failed state. "Wallow in their own incompetence", " a bunch of whiners", what offensive rot.

By the by, what great plans of England has Scotland been standing in the way of? What great achievements are the Scots malignly preventing by monopolising England's "time and energy"?
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 11, 2015, 07:16:58 am
Labour took Liverpool Walton with 81.3%! that's probably the highest % in this election, couldn't find a higher one in recent campaigns. is this a record?


North Down, 1959, UUP, 98%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Down_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1950s
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 08, 2015, 02:18:26 am
Morley & Outwood

Andrea Jenkins (C) 18,776
Ed Balls  (L) 18,354
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 08:07:28 pm
UUP gain South Antrim from DUP

Who is UUP? The more militant Unionist faction of old?

Less militant.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 07:58:47 pm
But the DUP just lost a seat.

?
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 07:37:27 pm
Recount in Nuneaton, per BBC
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 07:26:55 pm
Ashcroft "Post Vote Day Poll, 7 May 2015"

14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 07:11:41 pm
Quote from: Holly Watt, The Guardian
Just walked round the room in Nuneaton. Don't think I can see a single table where the red pile is bigger than blue

https://twitter.com/holly_watt/status/596464393749188608
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 05:34:32 pm
Quote from: YouGov
YouGov has not done an exit poll. A re-contact survey today simply gave us no reason to change our final numbers from yesterday.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/596427188645326848
16  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Who would you bring back from the dead for a final concert? on: May 07, 2015, 08:35:37 am
Mozart
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What are the geographic extremes of the places you have visited? on: May 07, 2015, 07:27:42 am
N 64.3° (Þingvellir, Iceland)
S 34.4° (Cape of Good Hope, South Africa)
E 38.7° (Addis Ababa, Ethiopia)
W 73.9° (New York, USA)

Unchanged as yet - though edging further east might happen in the next year or two.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: May 05, 2015, 10:01:05 am
Apparently, I agree with Nick...

88   Lib Dems
84   Green
83   Labour
83    Plaid Cymru
83    SNP
80   Sinn Féin

65   Conservatives
63   UKIP

23   DUP
20   BNP

They say I'm closest to the voters of Ynys Môn.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015 on: April 29, 2015, 02:54:51 am
More detail about the Red C / SBP poll from 25 April is now online:
http://www.redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/SBP-April-2015-Poll-Report-Same-Sex-Marriage.pdf


From their own commentary:

Quote from: RedC
Referendum Not Secure

Today is the first poll of the Same Sex Referendum campaign proper and is a real wake up call for the “Yes” campaigners. There has been a strong shift in support away from those saying they will vote Yes, towards those suggesting they are unsure how they will vote. This is not good news for those campaigning for a yes vote.

...

Over and above this fall in support, our analysis shows that a significant proportion of the remaining Yes vote is also relatively soft. When asked about attitudes towards issues surrounding the vote, it is clear that many still have some reservations about changing the constitution.

In a worst case scenario around 1 in 3 Yes voters still claim to have some reservations about issues in the referendum. That leaves just 45% of all likely voters as “secure” in the Yes camp. Of course not all those with reservations will necessarily vote No, however if they did the referendum would be lost, showing that this referendum is potentially far closer than topline figures suggest.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015 on: April 27, 2015, 04:16:04 am
Two more polls on the Marriage Equality referendum were released recently:

DatePollYes    No    Don't Know
17 AprilAmárach Research / RTÉ77149
25 April   Red C / Sunday Business Post   72208



Some breakdown on the Amárach Research numbers:

21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 23, 2015, 07:47:56 am
May or may not be of interest: www.constituencyexplorer.org.uk

Various demographic related comparative data broken down by constituency.
22  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Which Country is more Free? on: April 21, 2015, 02:42:24 am
USACanada
Freedom HousePolitical Rights (Score)1 (Free)   1 (Free)   Tie
Freedom HouseCivil Liberties (Score)1 (Free)1 (Free)Tie
Freedom HouseFreedom of the Press (Rank)=30th26th+1 CAN
Reporters Without Borders  Press Freedom Index (Rank)46th18th+1 CAN
EIUDemocracy Index (Rank)19th7th+1 CAN
Transparency Int'lCorruption Perceptions Index (Rank)17th10th+1 CAN
World Justice Project   Rule of Law Index (Rank)19th11th+1 CAN
Fund for PeaceFragile States Index (Rank)159th168th+1 CAN
OECDGov't Transparency Index (Rank)13th4th+1 CAN
Heritage FoundationIndex of Economic Freedom (Rank)12th6th+1 CAN
World BankEase of Doing Business Index (Rank)  7th16th+1 USA
Property Rights Alliance   Intl Property Rights Index (Rank)17th9th+1 CAN
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 20, 2015, 10:01:05 am
Useful blog post on the conventions around Prime Ministerial appointment, with particular regard to hung parliaments:
Ed can enter No. 10 without Nicola’s keys - Head of Legal, 19 April
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 10, 2015, 02:00:49 am
I see the Conservatives are running in 16 of the 18 NI constituencies (with 11 candidates not from NI).

The two constituencies where they are not standing: Fermanagh-South Tyrone and North Belfast.

http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/04/10/one-all-male-constituency-24-candidates-are-female-3-unionist-parties-running-all-male-candidates-ge2015/
25  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Favorite country starting with "U"? on: March 10, 2015, 04:58:35 am
The only country with a flag on the moon

If any country still meets that criterion, India might be the best bet.
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