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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: Today at 04:04:45 pm
Another Schwartz ad is out about "the old boys network."

Corbett's primary challenger somewhat surprisingly won in court to stay in the ballot but there will be an appeal.

Is the PAGOP really that terrified of a some guy being on the primary ballot? How sad.

They remember Peg Luksic.  Smiley
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: April 14, 2014, 11:03:17 am
I'm not sure, but I think some of the polling last year did list her as ahead.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: April 13, 2014, 06:51:47 am
If all Schwartz has to hit Wolf with is the loan then he has this thing sewn up it's just not a thing that's going to get voters to abandon him. And Schwartz's first campaign ad on CHIP seemed weak and ineffective it's just not something people care about.

Wolf's commercials are better, but Schwartz's commercials are good.

Schwartz is in a position where she has a reasonable amount of money and is raising it much better than the largely self funded Wolf.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: April 12, 2014, 05:58:03 pm
In the Governor's race, Schwartz came out swinging against Wolf in a debate, accusing him of buying the nomination.  McCord's stepbrother accused him of dissing his stepfather.   
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: April 12, 2014, 05:46:18 pm
Williams just said he'd take the case, but he wants everything.

A possible conflict of interest has cropped up, with a Kane staffer (prior to becoming a staffer) being one of those people who took money.

Re-election is not an issue for Kane; continued survival as AG is. 
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: April 10, 2014, 05:41:53 pm
Now it is the Washington Post talking about Kane:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/04/09/read-in-wednesday-april-9-2014-secret-service-supervisor-demoted-hope-for-ui-in-the-house-mcallister-will-seek-fbi-probe/

Kane took what could have been a 2-3 day story, and transformed it into a major scandal.

One paragraph on an online blog post in the WaPo does not a major scandal make. This whole thing still feels like it's something only hacks care about.

It does when they are talking about it three weeks later.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: April 10, 2014, 08:10:20 am
Now it is the Washington Post talking about Kane:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/04/09/read-in-wednesday-april-9-2014-secret-service-supervisor-demoted-hope-for-ui-in-the-house-mcallister-will-seek-fbi-probe/

Kane took what could have been a 2-3 day story, and transformed it into a major scandal.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: April 08, 2014, 09:27:08 pm
Wolf is outspending everyone:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/wolf_outspends_all_rivals_toge.html#incart_m-rpt-1

What I found interesting is that McCord raised less money than Wolf, even less than McGinty.  Wolf is largely self funded and isn't focusing on fund raising. 

I think it might come down to Wolf and Schwartz.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: April 08, 2014, 09:12:41 pm
Corbett trails Generic D by 22 points

Similar to the 19 he trailed Wolf by in the most recent Quinnipiac poll.

I'm a bit suspicious of a poll where the results show that 100% plan to vote.  Smiley
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: April 08, 2014, 07:39:52 am
The underlying issue is still well in the news as well:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/pa_lawmakers_call_for_fuller_d.html#incart_m-rpt-1

The very Democratic leaning State College Centre Daily Times, which endorsed her, and didn't cover the story for two weeks (at least on-line) came out with a blistering editorial on that and the "investigation of the investigation." 

According to Wikipedia, the major good government group, "The Committee of Seventy," has called for a special prosecutor to investigate Kane.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: April 07, 2014, 05:25:54 pm

Just saw Schwartz in the Phila market.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: April 04, 2014, 10:19:01 pm
Schwartz is the only candidate not on air it's not like she's broke either. I mean McGinty is even on air and she's not exactly flowing in cash. What is Team Schwartz doing/planning their completely MIA and sitting on a ton of cash this has to be one of the worst run campaigns I've seen in a while. Going from frontrunner to single digits is a disaster for any candidate.

McGinty is not on with any major buys.  She is not on in Phila.

Paterno is officially off the ballot.
13  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: David Letterman retiring in 2015 on: April 03, 2014, 05:24:16 pm
He hasn't said anything funny in 20 years.

15 years, but I think he did lose his edge a while back.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: April 03, 2014, 05:19:45 pm
F & M Poll:  Wolf at 33%, trailed by Schwartz at 7%.  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/wolf_holds_his_gubernatorial_p.html#incart_river_default

I believe that is down by 3 points, but it is still a huge lead.

That 3 points is easily MoE averaged between two polls. The point is his nearest competitor is 26 points behind and in single digits. Plus he should have plenty of money to match or outdo his opponents' ad campaigns when they finally hit the airwaves.

For one of the pack to over take Wolf at this point is probably going to take a scandal, megagaffe(s), or a negative campaign of unsurpassed effectiveness.

I think that qualifies as a "huge lead."  Smiley

At least in Phila, McCord has been on the air.  It has barely made a dent in his and Wolf's numbers.  That is a very good sign for Wolf.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: April 03, 2014, 07:08:24 am
F & M Poll:  Wolf at 33%, trailed by Schwartz at 7%.  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/wolf_holds_his_gubernatorial_p.html#incart_river_default

I believe that is down by 3 points, but it is still a huge lead.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: March 29, 2014, 01:06:54 pm
And Kane is now officially a joke:  http://www.pennlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2014/03/justice_kathleen_kane-style_a.html
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: March 28, 2014, 03:14:00 pm
Jay Paterno has decided not to run for Lite Governor.......good.

http://triblive.com/news/adminpage/5850922-74/state-paterno-primary#axzz2wuJFAiH5

Just about to post:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/03/jay_paterno_bows_out_of_race_f.html#incart_river_default

My guess is that his petitions were bad.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: March 28, 2014, 08:30:53 am
Wagner, this time out, was possibly Corbett's strongest opponent in the fall.  He's a conservative, who won't scare off conservatives.  He'd from Western PA, so he could be competitive in Corbett's base.

Ideology is not the only factor in candidate quality. Wagner is uninspiring, dull, a crap fundraiser, and would potentially depress the Democratic base. All this to attract conservatives, almost all of which will vote for Corbett in the end anyway? Not worth it.

There is a lot of discontent with the firing of Paterno, even among conservatives, and perhaps especially so.  Wagner could have tapped into that without effort.

A more liberal candidate won't.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: March 28, 2014, 08:26:41 am
I don't know about Wolf, but Schwartz and McCord both favor fracking, Corbett's signature issue.  They want to keep it and tax it.  It does strengthen the idea that he made the right decision.

So does Wolf, as long as it's regulated.

Good to know.

I'm not a Corbett fan, and actually kind of like Wolf.  His ads are very similar to Ridge in 1994.

McCord is rapidly turning me off, but it is somewhat due to his presentation.

My main reason why I could vote for Corbett is to spite the "Joebots."  There are more important issues.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: March 28, 2014, 08:21:30 am
Calling for a special prosecutor in the Philly 5 case:  http://blog.pennlive.com/capitol-notebook/2014/03/york_cos_grove_wants_independe.html#incart_river_default
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: March 28, 2014, 12:36:55 am


I've seen no indication that Corbett is recovering or his problems are "going away" He was trailing even Hanger in the last poll I've seen with his approval rating in the mid 30s. The time for recovery has passed Kasich, Walker and other GOP Govs have had their low points and have bounced back gradually while Corbett's #'s have gotten only worse. I'm not seeing anything from now to November that will cause him to jump an approval rating in the 30s to where he needs to be to win re-election.

Wagner, this time out, was possibly Corbett's strongest opponent in the fall.  He's a conservative, who won't scare off conservatives.  He'd from Western PA, so he could be competitive in Corbett's base.

The Phila 5 scandal has damaged Kane, which damages her probe.  The PSU stuff that has come out has been favorable to Corbett.

I don't know about Wolf, but Schwartz and McCord both favor fracking, Corbett's signature issue.  They want to keep it and tax it.  It does strengthen the idea that he made the right decision.

Corbett was off his lows, though admittedly, that was easy.

None of these things have anything to do with Corbett's merits.  If he were in a coma, the results would be the same.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: March 26, 2014, 05:55:44 pm

Conservadems get support only when the primary voters think they need one to win. With Corbett looking so weak and several more liberal and equally strong alternatives, Wagner never had a chance.

You mean like 2010?

Wagner lost the primary then to Onorato, Dan Onorato, who was, in turn, trounced by Corbett.

If you want to add A) 2014 will be as bad a year as 2010 and B) Corbett was just as weak as he was then as he was now to your list of denials and delusions then yeah that's what I mean.

I have not said anything about Corbett's weakness, only the weakness of your statements.

Wagner was probably the strongest candidate in the General.  It does mean that Corbett won't lose, but the likelihood that he will just went down.  A lot of Corbett's political problems are going away, ironically with no effort from Corbett.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: March 26, 2014, 05:17:15 pm

Conservadems get support only when the primary voters think they need one to win. With Corbett looking so weak and several more liberal and equally strong alternatives, Wagner never had a chance.

You mean like 2010?

Wagner lost the primary then to Onorato, Dan Onorato, who was, in turn, trounced by Corbett.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: March 26, 2014, 04:03:33 pm
Wagner drops out:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/03/wagner_bows_out_democratic_gov.html#incart_river_default
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: March 26, 2014, 08:29:01 am
Will Kane resign??

I think there will need to be a threat of removal.

IF Williams is correct, and there is evidence, my guess is yes.  His statement has some weight because is the DA, and he is a Democrat.  It is not likely that he has a political agenda.
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