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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET) on: March 01, 2016, 10:38:08 pm
I wonder if a significant amount of minorities would leave this country if TRUMP were elected.

Voluntarily or involuntarily? 
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump-Christie? on: March 01, 2016, 10:26:31 pm
No way. Christie will be attorney general if Trump wins.  Trump will not pick another brash northeasterner with an objectively terrible record as governor. Christie is a great prosecutor, but not VP material.

Agreed, it would give me a second reason not to vote for a Trump ticket. 
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Grand jury reaches decision in Ferguson case (Announcement Monday night) on: November 25, 2014, 11:29:38 pm
Have any of actually read the grand jury stuff? 
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 20, 2014, 03:01:47 pm
Anything on AZ-4?
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 13, 2014, 09:09:55 am
Out of roughly 20,000 ballots counted today, Begich only made up 238 votes.

Does that include the previous 15,000 or is this another whole group of 20,000.

If yes, Begich would need ot win by 68%-32% amongst those remaining votes. If not, he would need to win by 65%-35% to overtake Sullivan. I know Fox called it this morning.

AP called it for Sullivan as well. 
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 11, 2014, 02:46:55 pm
Crunched the number on CA-16, and the Dems hold it.  Based on the splits of the remaining ballots, the past split of Fresno County of about 63-37 would have to drop to around 55-45 for the race to be even at the end. It isn't happening. Costa will win by about 650 votes, plus or minus.

CA-07 does not look too good for the Pubs either. Ose needs a swing to him of a couple of points on what remains, from what went before. Still in the hunt, but the underdog now.

So that leaves AZ-02, where somebody else claims that the final projection is for a 40 votes McSally win. So that one remains a slight tilt GOP seat.

The 2 LA districts and one of those three.  247? 
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cohn: GOP House majority may now be unshakable for a generation on: November 11, 2014, 01:03:05 am
I was surprised that there were several NY districts that were relatively close.  A slight demographic change or coat tails could swing them.    I think there are a few potentially winnable seats out there for the GOP.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 11, 2014, 12:57:22 am


My guess is the US house will be 246-248 R, 188-87 D.  It will either tie or break the post World War II numbers. 

This means 12-15 net pickups, with 3 for the Dems and 15-18 for the GOP.

Pick-ups

Dem

CA-31 (open)
FL-2 (Southerland)
NE-2 (Terry)

GOP

NV-4 (Horsford)
TX-23 (Gallego)
NH-1 (Shea-Porter)
ME-2 (open)
IA-1 (open)
UT-4 (open)
WV-3 (Rahall)
GA-12 (Barrow)
NC-7 (open)
IL-10 (Schneider)
IL-12 (Enyart)
NY-1 (Bishop)
NY-21 (open)
NY-24 (Maffei)
FL-26 (Garcia)

Where else am I missing? Which of these has the highest D-PVI?


You forgot the two LA districts; they are both likely Democratic pickups; that takes it up to 246.  Then you AZ-4, CA-7, CA-16.  I think they will carry at least one of them, for 247
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 09, 2014, 03:17:58 pm


My guess is the US house will be 246-248 R, 188-87 D.  It will either tie or break the post World War II numbers. 

246 to 249. CA-16, AZ-07 and CA-07 remain in play.

I know, but I expect the GOP to lose at least one of those three you mentioned. 
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Predict the Final Number of Republican Seats In the House on: November 09, 2014, 02:14:57 am
247-248.

The 2 LA seats and at least one of CA-7, CA-16, or AZ-2.  If I had to pick a number 247. 
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 09, 2014, 01:55:34 am


My guess is the US house will be 246-248 R, 188-87 D.  It will either tie or break the post World War II numbers. 
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 2014 Post-Mortem: How did the Democrats screw this up so badly? on: November 05, 2014, 11:03:49 pm
Think of how out of it and apathetic I was this election. Obviously I still voted, but how many Democrats didn't?


I was apathetic as well. 

Part of it was the idea that the country was deteriorating nationally and internationally.  Part of it was bad candidates. 

Part of it was the sixth year trend. 
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will Mia Love lose in 2016? on: November 05, 2014, 10:11:34 am
She will hold.  I was a fairly good year for African-American Republicans. 
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Crossover Voting is Dead on: November 05, 2014, 10:06:00 am
I think last night proves this if nothing else. Discuss.

Not in Pennsylvania. 
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Should Landrieu concede now and save us all the trouble? on: November 05, 2014, 10:04:10 am
I'd hold out.  There could be a backlash. 
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 05, 2014, 10:02:34 am
An 18 seat gain in the House and 9 seats in the Senate would be a rout.  I'm still a bit skeptical it will happen. 
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Craziest results of this election on: November 05, 2014, 08:35:32 am
Mark Warner, definitely. That was ridiculous.

I literally said, "What the faaa.... "

I turned to CNN from Fox because I thought had it wrong. 
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Congrats, Phil on: November 05, 2014, 08:02:34 am
Congratulations, Phil. 
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 05, 2014, 08:01:49 am
What House seats are still out?

I think in PA, you can drive from City Avenue in Philadelphia to the Allegheny County line, and never enter a Democratic US House District.  Smiley
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 05, 2014, 12:52:54 am
Fox is projecting a minimum of a 12 seat gain in the House; this would tie the post WW II numbers.  If so, it will be a route. 
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 05, 2014, 12:39:33 am
On the bright side, looks like we've averted complete disaster in Virginia. Warner currently up 13,000 votes with >99% in.

Imagine if someone posted Warner surviving as a "bright side" yesterday.

Technically, Gillespie can ask for a recount in VA, says the Independent from New York who said that the only way Warner was going to lose if he murdered someone and they found his prints on the murder weapon.

Impressive almost win for Gillespie.

He can if he wants, but he won't be making up that many votes in a recount no matter what.

You (and other Democrats) got cocky before this election, and look what happened.  Don't count Ed Gillespie out just yet.  

Uh, is this a joke? It's completely implausible to make up 13,000 votes in a recount, unless there's a bunch of uncounted ballots yet to be discovered. But since this is Virginia and not Illinois or Wisconsin, the chances of that seem pretty slim. It's hard enough to make up 1,000 votes in a recount, much less 13x that.

All precincts were counted, but that was only 95% of the ballots.  I'm guessing absentees
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 05, 2014, 12:18:14 am
Scott wins in FL.

Wrong board...

Oh, that's you, J.J. Why am I even bother?

Just adding to another post. 
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 05, 2014, 12:03:17 am
Scott wins in FL.

VA will go to a recount. 
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 11:51:37 pm
J.J is back!!!!!! Always used to read his posts, great to finally see him post again!!! Smiley Smiley

I have been posting sporadically for a few weeks. 
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 11:48:51 pm
Baker just defeated Coakley in MA.
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