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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: July 29, 2014, 04:11:42 pm
Yougov has it Corbett 33, Wolf 42:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/07/tom_corbett_tom_wolf_poll_new.html#incart_m-rpt-1

I'm not crazy about their polling, they changed methodology, and would prefer F and M, but it could be a sign of closing.

Both Corbett and Wolf have been hitting the airwaves heavily.  Corbett is running against the General Assembly.

Even though both chambers are controlled by Republicans.

They areSmiley 

I hadn't seen it, but there was a commentary that said the same thing.

It is a very strange year in Pennsylvania.  Smiley
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: July 29, 2014, 12:25:25 pm
Yougov has it Corbett 33, Wolf 42:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/07/tom_corbett_tom_wolf_poll_new.html#incart_m-rpt-1

I'm not crazy about their polling, they changed methodology, and would prefer F and M, but it could be a sign of closing.

Both Corbett and Wolf have been hitting the airwaves heavily.  Corbett is running against the General Assembly.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: July 06, 2014, 11:23:48 pm
There is no such thing as "Kanegate." Don't even indulge him by using his hackish terminology.

Hilarious especially as this came out today - http://mobile.philly.com/news/politics/?wss=/philly/news/politics&id=265463571&

G. Terry Madonna, a political analyst at Franklin and Marshall College, said the statement by the district attorneys was a blow to Kane's image.

"Being rebuked in a sense by your prosecutorial colleagues is about as damaging an element for an incumbent officeholder as you can find," Madonna said.

He said he could not recall county prosecutors criticizing the state's top prosecutor before. "This is unprecedented," he said.


Actually, it is not completely unprecedented.  It happened with a local DA in July of 2008.

She managed to blow the press conference, suggesting additional Sandusky victims, one of which appeared at the trial.  She actually made a good hire with Moulton.  He wrote a good report, came up with some legitimate criticism, and then she blows it.

One blogger wrote,  "Ms. Kane, instead of emphasizing her good judgment in hiring Mr. Moulton, metaphorically shot from the hip, and hit herself in the foot." 

Here is the prosecutor's letter:  http://www.philly.com/philly/opinion/inquirer/20140702_Stop_attacks_on_prosecutors.html

4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: July 02, 2014, 08:21:56 am
Corbett getting creamed in a new F & M poll, down 22 points:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/07/poll_tom_wolf_governor_tom_cor.html#incart_m-rpt-1
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Republicans in Philadelphia?!?! on: June 14, 2014, 07:04:26 am
Also, to answer the OP:





That is one unapologetically gerrymandered district. Tongue

They probably could have had two "close" districts in the area.


6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Republicans in Philadelphia?!?! on: June 09, 2014, 06:59:26 pm
His district is in the Caucasian section of the Northeast.  It is the "Great White Northeast" for a reason. Smiley

I think there are several Republicans from that section.  The former Speaker, Perzel, was from that section.  Up to at least 2000, there were a GOP House seats up there.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kane report: no proof Corbett stalled on Sandusky. on: June 07, 2014, 12:51:18 pm
Attorney General Kathleen Kane's report notes that there is no proof that then-AG Corbett stalled on Sandusky investigation - http://mobile.philly.com/news/?wss=%2Fphilly%2Fhp%2Fnews_update%2F&id=262229091

A minor boost to Corbett.

Katy "Konspiracy" Kane takes another hit.

The Joebots are wrapping another layer of tinfoil around their heads.

The "investigation of the investigation" has taken half the time of the Corbett/Kelley investigation, which spanned more than a decade.

8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: June 04, 2014, 11:00:28 am


One seriously wonky thing about this poll is Corbett having a higher approval among African Americans (37-59) than whites (27-57).

That is not that "wonky."

Corbett has done a bit better with African Americans than the average Republican.

1.  In 2008, he ran against Morganelli, who had some racial problems.  Morganelli led the fight to scuttle a Clinton nominated federal judge candidate, who was Black.

2.  This year, he is running against Wolf, who has some (minor) racial problems.

3.  Corbett's daughter was married to an African-American, and he has an adopted Black grandchild, who was trotted out in his campaign commercials.

That doesn't translate into Corbett winning North Philadelphia, but it may translate into Corbett doing slightly better here.

In the 2016 matchups Toomey wins between 31-39% of African Americans. He won 7% in 2010. It's much more likely to be statistical noise.

Like I said, I think the Senate numbers are way off. 
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: June 04, 2014, 10:59:18 am
Q has it Wolf up 19 points:  http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/pa/pa06042014_al2de54.pdf
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: June 03, 2014, 10:48:09 pm


One seriously wonky thing about this poll is Corbett having a higher approval among African Americans (37-59) than whites (27-57).

That is not that "wonky."

Corbett has done a bit better with African Americans than the average Republican.

1.  In 2008, he ran against Morganelli, who had some racial problems.  Morganelli led the fight to scuttle a Clinton nominated federal judge candidate, who was Black.

2.  This year, he is running against Wolf, who has some (minor) racial problems.

3.  Corbett's daughter was married to an African-American, and he has an adopted Black grandchild, who was trotted out in his campaign commercials.

That doesn't translate into Corbett winning North Philadelphia, but it may translate into Corbett doing slightly better here.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: June 03, 2014, 04:05:52 pm
Tom Corbett is clearly bringing all of the Republicans down. Thankfully for Toomey, he won't be on the ballot with Corbett in 2016, so I don't find this very alarming.

Same poll has Casey 34-31.  That does not sound right.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: June 03, 2014, 04:02:37 pm
PPP has Wolf up 25!

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/06/wolf_running_away_new_poll_has.html#incart_m-rpt-1
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: June 01, 2014, 08:49:58 pm
How big will Wolf's coattails be if he's winning by 20+ points? Republicans down ballot can't be happy about this.

They only have themselves to blame for not primarying him.

And for not handing him some legislative victories.

I doubt if either house will flip.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: PA: Rasmussen: Wolf (D) eats Gov. Corbett (R) alive on: June 01, 2014, 08:47:59 pm
The "Cook Political Report" still has this race as a "tossup":

http://cookpolitical.com/governor/charts/race-ratings

Tongue
I would, too.  Corbett is, after all, an incumbent, and that is an advantage that can't be underestimated.  Nonetheless, I think his goose is probably cooked at this point.  Or should I say, he's been thrown to the "Wolfs." Smiley

He is an incumbent with very light accomplishments.  The legislature, both houses of which are Republican, is hostile.

I will agree that he is unlikely to win, but if he started having major legislative victories, that could change things.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: June 01, 2014, 02:13:05 pm
Rassy says Wolf+20

Rick Santorum is already counting the days to November when he's finally not the biggest looooser anymore in Pennsylvania ... Tongue

Congrats, Phil !

I will defend Phil, he has never said "Corbett will win." He has said "Corbett can still recover". That's definitely not the same thing, and if the Dem nominee were Schwartzn Corbett would perform much better right now.


And seriously, Rassy lol, I don't buy it, 20 points, too big.

I think Corbett will close the gap, but not win.

The only thing that could save him would some resounding legislative victories, e.g. privatizing the state store system.  I would be surprised if he got it.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: May 30, 2014, 10:28:58 pm

It has parts of State College but it's much more than "fairly" conservative.

It doesn't have parts of State College, but it has parts of Centre County, some of the most conservative parts.

2009-the local Republican DA up there lost by more than 25 points, and carried only 4 voting districts out of 89.  Two of them are in Fleck's district.  The guy was so bad that I contributed to his opponent.

17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: May 30, 2014, 10:07:44 pm
I'm still waiting for Wenzel or Vox Populi to show Corbett #dominating.

The Kanegate effect will kick in any day now, of course.
The what? Huh

Kane, the last "great liberal hope," became involved in a major scandal.

"last"?

Let's go ahead and put "major" and "scandal" in quotes as well.

When she gets ripped by the Democratic DA of Philadelphia, there is no need for quotes.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: May 30, 2014, 08:00:54 am

That State House district is fairly conservative. 

GOP hold.

(Fleck has also made noised that if re-elected, he'd still be Republican.)
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: May 29, 2014, 10:30:08 am
I'm still waiting for Wenzel or Vox Populi to show Corbett #dominating.

The Kanegate effect will kick in any day now, of course.
The what? Huh

Kane, the last "great liberal hope," became involved in a major scandal.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: May 24, 2014, 04:19:23 pm
Seriously, if Corbett is defeated, what was the last time where an incumbent governor was defeated in PA?

No Governor of Pennsylvania has ever been defeated in seeking reelection, although that is obviously due in big part to the Pennsylvania Constitution only allowing a second consecutive term since its 1968 revision.

Adding a bit to this, the closest reelection race was 1982, Thornburgh vs. Ertel.  Ertel was US. Rep whose district basically ran down the West Branch of the Susquehanna from Williamsport down to south of Harrisburg, a nice chunk of Central PA.  Ertel was able to cut into the GOP base of the "T," by basically winning that district.

Wolf is from York, which is also part of Central PA.  You could see a similar dynamic, though Ertel's district spanned three media markets.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: May 21, 2014, 08:09:58 am
Op-ed piece on the Fall Election:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/05/tom_corbett_could_still_win_ag.html#incart_river_default

I disagree somewhat on fundraising.  Had Wolf won be less than 10 points, he might have had a problem with fundraising.  A 40 point win will attract at least some funds.

Corbett needs to point to some major legislative victory. and raise a lot of funds.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: May 20, 2014, 09:45:42 pm
Impressive win.  Anything above 10% was good.  40% is gigantic.  Unstoppable in the General, barring a major scandal or Corbett pulling an elephant out of his hat.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: May 20, 2014, 04:43:16 pm
Turnout is a bit stronger in Philadelphia.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: May 18, 2014, 08:31:42 pm
If I had to make a prediction.


Wolf 43
Schwartz 30
McCord 17
McGinty 10

Slight erosion of support, but still impressive.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: May 14, 2014, 10:32:12 pm
Guarantee another (independent) pollster shows a much-smaller-than-seventeen-point-lead for Wolf.

Nope, bigger:

Q. If the Democratic primary election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for: Tom Wolf, Rob McCord, Katie McGinty, or Allyson Schwartz?

50% Wolf
15% Schwartz
15% McCord
  5% McGinty

Pennsylvania Governor Democratic Primary Poll
May 12-13, 2014

http://www.harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-governor-democratic-primary-poll

F & M's Terry Madonna is possibly the best pollster for PA.  I would be shocked with Wolf winning by a 35 point margin.  I would not be a 145 point margin.
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