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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: August 28, 2014, 07:20:05 am
F & M:   Wolf with a 24 point lead.  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/08/tom_corbett_poll_tom_wolf_gube.html#incart_m-rpt-2

Wolf:  49%

Corbett:  24%

I cannot see any way for Corbett to pull this out. 

I am surprised that it did not close.



2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: PA: Any hope for Gov. Corbett? on: August 26, 2014, 12:56:03 pm
Well,
Maybe Corbett will lose by less than 10 points.

I'm expecting the gap to close, but not to four points.

Corbett has been hammering, but Wolf hits him right back. 
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: PA: Any hope for Gov. Corbett? on: August 21, 2014, 07:52:20 pm
No recent polling, but both are advertizing.

Still calling it for Wolf. 
4  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Why do Presidents swear in on the bible? on: August 21, 2014, 07:50:38 pm
In PA government, there are oaths mandated by the state constitution.  I've taken it, but never on a Bible.

Washington started the tradition, as he was a Freemason, and it is traditional to take an oath upon a Bible; the Bible was hastily borrowed from St. John's Masonic Lodge. 

http://www.stjohns1.org/portal/gwib
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Opinion of the St. Louis County Police Department on: August 21, 2014, 04:28:54 pm
Johnson was much better.  I am actually impressed with the guy. 
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: St Louis police murder scandal (PLUS: riots, idiotic press conferences, etc.) on: August 20, 2014, 03:48:12 am
I don't have the playbook you guys are using, but I think you're supposed to ignore the above and show pictures of white guys with guns again...maybe add some ignorance like "THEY USING BIPLANES ON THE PEACEFUL PROTESTORS NOW!?!?" or try and explain how the rioting really isn't rioting because they have an excuse.


or the always popular "attack the poster who disagrees with you with insults because you're not smart enough to discuss things with people you disagree with".

I think there is a lot of that on this thread.  Sad

I do empathize with the police in the riot situation, at least since Johnson took over.  Look at some of the police rushing in situations.  Yes, they are mobbing one individual, but that individual is one who did something like throw something.  The are not doing with the people that were peacefully protesting standing one or two feet away.  When the get the single individual, they are not clubbing him with nightsticks, or punching him, but immobilizing him, holding him and then arresting him. 

Now the assault vehicles and rubber bullets were wrong, but Johnson seems to have some idea how to do this.  So do most of the protestors.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: St Louis police murder scandal (PLUS: riots, idiotic press conferences, etc.) on: August 19, 2014, 08:10:24 pm
Btw, both the City of Ferguson's as well as the St. Louis County's official websites have been offline for a couple of days now due to a suspected Anonymous hacks.

http://www.fergusoncity.com/

http://www.stlouisco.com/

The State of Missouri, the Missouri National Guard, and the City of St. Louis are still there though.

I was on both yesterday. 
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: St Louis police murder scandal (PLUS: riots, idiotic press conferences, etc.) on: August 19, 2014, 07:52:23 pm


Wait... police are using flamethrowers? What the heck?

Ah, he is either firing a CS gas or smoke grenade.  That is a grenade launcher and those are grenades.

While it looks like a big gun, it is non lethal.  So far, the police are not using particularly damaging methods of arrests (i.e. nightsticks). 
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: St Louis police murder scandal (PLUS: riots, idiotic press conferences, etc.) on: August 18, 2014, 10:53:52 pm
Unfortunately, Obama needs to steer clear of this. The day he spoke out about Trayvon Martin was that George Zimmerman became a hero to most Republicans. We don't need that again.

I'm sure the cop who shot the kid and the cops shooting rubber bullets into crowds of protestors are already heroes to most Republicans regardless of what Obama does or doesn't do.

No.  I think the local police should have held back that tape and should have released information.

The original shooting might not have been racial (though unjustified), but the police response has been.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: July 29, 2014, 04:11:42 pm
Yougov has it Corbett 33, Wolf 42:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/07/tom_corbett_tom_wolf_poll_new.html#incart_m-rpt-1

I'm not crazy about their polling, they changed methodology, and would prefer F and M, but it could be a sign of closing.

Both Corbett and Wolf have been hitting the airwaves heavily.  Corbett is running against the General Assembly.

Even though both chambers are controlled by Republicans.

They areSmiley 

I hadn't seen it, but there was a commentary that said the same thing.

It is a very strange year in Pennsylvania.  Smiley
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: July 29, 2014, 12:25:25 pm
Yougov has it Corbett 33, Wolf 42:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/07/tom_corbett_tom_wolf_poll_new.html#incart_m-rpt-1

I'm not crazy about their polling, they changed methodology, and would prefer F and M, but it could be a sign of closing.

Both Corbett and Wolf have been hitting the airwaves heavily.  Corbett is running against the General Assembly.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: July 06, 2014, 11:23:48 pm
There is no such thing as "Kanegate." Don't even indulge him by using his hackish terminology.

Hilarious especially as this came out today - http://mobile.philly.com/news/politics/?wss=/philly/news/politics&id=265463571&

G. Terry Madonna, a political analyst at Franklin and Marshall College, said the statement by the district attorneys was a blow to Kane's image.

"Being rebuked in a sense by your prosecutorial colleagues is about as damaging an element for an incumbent officeholder as you can find," Madonna said.

He said he could not recall county prosecutors criticizing the state's top prosecutor before. "This is unprecedented," he said.


Actually, it is not completely unprecedented.  It happened with a local DA in July of 2008.

She managed to blow the press conference, suggesting additional Sandusky victims, one of which appeared at the trial.  She actually made a good hire with Moulton.  He wrote a good report, came up with some legitimate criticism, and then she blows it.

One blogger wrote,  "Ms. Kane, instead of emphasizing her good judgment in hiring Mr. Moulton, metaphorically shot from the hip, and hit herself in the foot." 

Here is the prosecutor's letter:  http://www.philly.com/philly/opinion/inquirer/20140702_Stop_attacks_on_prosecutors.html

13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: July 02, 2014, 08:21:56 am
Corbett getting creamed in a new F & M poll, down 22 points:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/07/poll_tom_wolf_governor_tom_cor.html#incart_m-rpt-1
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Republicans in Philadelphia?!?! on: June 14, 2014, 07:04:26 am
Also, to answer the OP:





That is one unapologetically gerrymandered district. Tongue

They probably could have had two "close" districts in the area.


15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Republicans in Philadelphia?!?! on: June 09, 2014, 06:59:26 pm
His district is in the Caucasian section of the Northeast.  It is the "Great White Northeast" for a reason. Smiley

I think there are several Republicans from that section.  The former Speaker, Perzel, was from that section.  Up to at least 2000, there were a GOP House seats up there.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kane report: no proof Corbett stalled on Sandusky. on: June 07, 2014, 12:51:18 pm
Attorney General Kathleen Kane's report notes that there is no proof that then-AG Corbett stalled on Sandusky investigation - http://mobile.philly.com/news/?wss=%2Fphilly%2Fhp%2Fnews_update%2F&id=262229091

A minor boost to Corbett.

Katy "Konspiracy" Kane takes another hit.

The Joebots are wrapping another layer of tinfoil around their heads.

The "investigation of the investigation" has taken half the time of the Corbett/Kelley investigation, which spanned more than a decade.

17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: June 04, 2014, 11:00:28 am


One seriously wonky thing about this poll is Corbett having a higher approval among African Americans (37-59) than whites (27-57).

That is not that "wonky."

Corbett has done a bit better with African Americans than the average Republican.

1.  In 2008, he ran against Morganelli, who had some racial problems.  Morganelli led the fight to scuttle a Clinton nominated federal judge candidate, who was Black.

2.  This year, he is running against Wolf, who has some (minor) racial problems.

3.  Corbett's daughter was married to an African-American, and he has an adopted Black grandchild, who was trotted out in his campaign commercials.

That doesn't translate into Corbett winning North Philadelphia, but it may translate into Corbett doing slightly better here.

In the 2016 matchups Toomey wins between 31-39% of African Americans. He won 7% in 2010. It's much more likely to be statistical noise.

Like I said, I think the Senate numbers are way off. 
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: June 04, 2014, 10:59:18 am
Q has it Wolf up 19 points:  http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/pa/pa06042014_al2de54.pdf
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: June 03, 2014, 10:48:09 pm


One seriously wonky thing about this poll is Corbett having a higher approval among African Americans (37-59) than whites (27-57).

That is not that "wonky."

Corbett has done a bit better with African Americans than the average Republican.

1.  In 2008, he ran against Morganelli, who had some racial problems.  Morganelli led the fight to scuttle a Clinton nominated federal judge candidate, who was Black.

2.  This year, he is running against Wolf, who has some (minor) racial problems.

3.  Corbett's daughter was married to an African-American, and he has an adopted Black grandchild, who was trotted out in his campaign commercials.

That doesn't translate into Corbett winning North Philadelphia, but it may translate into Corbett doing slightly better here.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: June 03, 2014, 04:05:52 pm
Tom Corbett is clearly bringing all of the Republicans down. Thankfully for Toomey, he won't be on the ballot with Corbett in 2016, so I don't find this very alarming.

Same poll has Casey 34-31.  That does not sound right.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: June 03, 2014, 04:02:37 pm
PPP has Wolf up 25!

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/06/wolf_running_away_new_poll_has.html#incart_m-rpt-1
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: June 01, 2014, 08:49:58 pm
How big will Wolf's coattails be if he's winning by 20+ points? Republicans down ballot can't be happy about this.

They only have themselves to blame for not primarying him.

And for not handing him some legislative victories.

I doubt if either house will flip.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: PA: Rasmussen: Wolf (D) eats Gov. Corbett (R) alive on: June 01, 2014, 08:47:59 pm
The "Cook Political Report" still has this race as a "tossup":

http://cookpolitical.com/governor/charts/race-ratings

Tongue
I would, too.  Corbett is, after all, an incumbent, and that is an advantage that can't be underestimated.  Nonetheless, I think his goose is probably cooked at this point.  Or should I say, he's been thrown to the "Wolfs." Smiley

He is an incumbent with very light accomplishments.  The legislature, both houses of which are Republican, is hostile.

I will agree that he is unlikely to win, but if he started having major legislative victories, that could change things.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: June 01, 2014, 02:13:05 pm
Rassy says Wolf+20

Rick Santorum is already counting the days to November when he's finally not the biggest looooser anymore in Pennsylvania ... Tongue

Congrats, Phil !

I will defend Phil, he has never said "Corbett will win." He has said "Corbett can still recover". That's definitely not the same thing, and if the Dem nominee were Schwartzn Corbett would perform much better right now.


And seriously, Rassy lol, I don't buy it, 20 points, too big.

I think Corbett will close the gap, but not win.

The only thing that could save him would some resounding legislative victories, e.g. privatizing the state store system.  I would be surprised if he got it.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: May 30, 2014, 10:28:58 pm

It has parts of State College but it's much more than "fairly" conservative.

It doesn't have parts of State College, but it has parts of Centre County, some of the most conservative parts.

2009-the local Republican DA up there lost by more than 25 points, and carried only 4 voting districts out of 89.  Two of them are in Fleck's district.  The guy was so bad that I contributed to his opponent.

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