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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2010 House Races in Oregon
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on: January 26, 2010, 02:27:41 am
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Schrader is overestimated. Bruun will offer him a close race, though victory is uncertain. His '08 numbers were buoyed by Obama and his opponent's ethical issues, neither of which will be there in 2010.
DeFazio is vastly underestimated. Although his district is close, he himself is safe, and will be until he finally seeks a promotion - I personally think he harbors presidential ambitions.
Wu is estimated just right. His district is not Democratic enough that Republicans have no chance in the event of an open seat, massive wave, and strong candidate (that is, all three at once), but the only one of those conditions that might be fulfilled is the second.
So, all in all, either 4-1 D or 3-2 D.
I agree with this analysis; just for kicks selected 3-2. That's optimistic in my view.
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Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 2000: Bush vs. Bradley vs. McCain vs. Trump
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on: July 03, 2005, 01:32:27 pm
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A ticket composed of Trump and Winfrey would, to put it politely, be a joke, and would not be taken seriously by the electorate. I don't care how many day time viewers Oprah has, or how many night time viewers Donald has, or how much money they have between them, although they could certainly run a flashy campaign with it. The rough and tumble of the campaign would reveal how ill prepared either of these individuals would be to lead the country, or to assume the leadership of the free world, or to lead the war against terrorism.
Donald should stick to firing people on reality TV, and Oprah should stick to "healing people's souls." The percentage of votes received by this politically inept and ill conceived ticket would be negligible.
Bradley is too liberal to be acceptable to mainstream voters. His selection of Dean for VP doesn't help at all in this respect. The election for conservatives and moderates would become an issue of which candidate, Bush or McCain, could best defeat Bradley. As the Republican nominee, Bush would be the overwhelming favorite for these voters. Third party or independent candidates do not have nearly as large a base to draw from as a major party candidate does. McCain would be hampered by age and health issues, and his selection of Specter for VP would do nothing to assure voters. Specter would be hampered by these two same isues as well.
McCain would be caught in the squeeze between Bush and Bradley, leaving very little room for him to have a major impact.
McCain is in many ways considered to be a maverick, this, combined with his selection of Specter, a liberal Senator, would have the result, in fact, of drawing more votes away from Bradley than from Bush.
That is why I see such an election turning out this way. Of course, the McCain/Specter ticket would draw votes away from Bush, but would draw votes in much larger numbers away from Bradley. This, combined with conservative and moderate voters voting overwhelmingly for Bush, is why I see Bush as the winner with the electoral votes I have shown.
This election is in 2000. trump isn't on TV yet and the War on Terror has not begun. I think a Trump/Winfrey ticket would get a lot of interest.
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General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Take that Souter! Justice may lose home to eminent domain.
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on: July 01, 2005, 11:53:47 pm
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How was Dredd Scott a sham of a decision? For the laws of the time it actually was a sound judgement. I will post the constitutional statement regarding the matter.
It went much further than that. On Dred Scott v. Sanford: "How did [Supreme Court Justice] Taney know that slave ownership was a constitutional right? Such a right is nowhere to be found in the Constitution. He knew it because he was passionately convinced that it must be a constitutional right. Though his transformation of the due process clause from a procedural to a substantive requirement was an obvious sham, it was a momentous sham, for this was the first appearance in American constitutional law of the concept of 'substantive due process,' and that concept has been used countless times since by judges who want to write their personal beliefs into a document that, most inconveniently, does not contain those beliefs." - Robert Bork And here I am thinking that in Robert Bork's America blacks would be sitting at segregated lunch counters.
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Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Warner V. McCain
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on: June 23, 2005, 07:17:49 pm
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I'd say that Warner beats McCain based on a very low turnout amongst conservatives. It's one of the rare matchups in which I could see myself voting for the Democrat in a general election.
Ditto, I'm pretty certain I'd vote for Warner here unless he says something stupid like "Let the terrorists go even if they return to fight us."
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