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77
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General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion
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on: May 02, 2013, 11:28:54 am
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Sun YouGov poll: Lab 39%, Tory 33%, UKIP 13%, LD 10%.
Labour lead at 6 points in the age of 'evil Tory cuts'. Brilliant.
Of course, we'll still be destroyed today, but hey-ho. Blair lost 17 councils and 550+ councillors at the 2000 locals then won big in the 2001 GE.
2000 locals were different batch of seats.
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78
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General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion
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on: May 02, 2013, 11:27:42 am
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Sun YouGov poll: Lab 39%, Tory 33%, UKIP 13%, LD 10%.
Labour lead at 6 points in the age of 'evil Tory cuts'. Brilliant.
And you need to be like 8 points clear to win a majority. Good luck. Electoral Calculus with those figures gives a Labour majority of 74 and UK Polling Report a majority of 78; neither of these have an explicit option for UKIP, but the Tories will lose more to UKIP than Labour. Remember Labour got a majority of 66 on a 3 point victory in 2005.
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82
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General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion
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on: April 28, 2013, 10:10:56 am
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£7.45 (up to £8.55 in London), rather than the minimum wage of £6.19.
I'm not to happy with a promise of tax breaks across the board; the notion that the living wage needs to be 'encouraged' just seems more customary spinelessness from our politicians - it should become the mandated minimum wage Labour promises in 2015, with any talk of tax breaks limited to a minority of businesses that can prove they couldn't financially withstand it.
Carrots are better than sticks generally - best to try persuasion first.
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91
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General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Is there any way Saddam Hussein could've survived the Arab Spring?
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on: April 16, 2013, 11:17:25 am
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If the West remained neutral, then he would have been in a situation analogous to Assad in Syria: Sectarian civil war in which he was the leader of a minority sectarian group. As with Syria, the Iraqi military would have more advanced military equipment than anything the Shiite (Sunni in the case of Syria) rebel groups would be able to muster, so he could effectively be the head of the "largest militia in Iraq" for many years, which is essentially what's happening with Assad in Syria.
Agree - if there had been no invasion and no finding of WMD, international sanctions would have fallen apart. The Russians and Chinese would have been willing to sell Saddam advanced fighters - Gaddafi was about to buy Rafales from the French when that war started (and Rafales were the first over Libya). This is assuming that the Arab Spring happens at all; there would be far less resentment against the US and US-backed leaders without Iraq.
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