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51  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: New Jersey: Quinnipiac 5/10-5/16, 1989 RV. Hillary 45% | TRUMP 38% on: May 22, 2016, 01:17:52 pm
Many seem to have forgotten how NJ is notorious for having lots of undecided voters who break heavily for the Democrat at the last minute.
52  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NJ-Quinnipiac: Clinton 54% Sanders 40% on: May 22, 2016, 01:11:57 pm
Wow. If Sanders somehow wins New Jersey this election will be a mess.

Why on Earth would this poll indicate to you that Sanders will win New Jersey?
It's Beet.

Even for him it's a pretty bizarre reaction. It'd be like if a poll for the general election came out showing Hillary leading by 14 points against Trump and his response was "Wow. If Trump somehow wins New Jersey this is going to be a blowout."
53  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WaPo/ABC National: Trump +2, Clinton +2 w/ Romney on: May 22, 2016, 09:27:43 am
Hillary's numbers with whites are brutal.

Who would have thought that maybe running a year long campaign insinuating that your primary opponent's supporters were all sexist and racist white males might not have been the best strategy?
When specifically has Clinton or her surrogates come anywhere near insinuating this?

Oh give me a break, that's about everything that comes out of Blue Nation Review, which is owned by David Brock, whose SuperPAC directly coordinates with the Hillary campaign. They insinuate that every white male who doesn't support Hillary must be a racist and sexist. Such a disgusting campaign.

And BNR and that connection are both known nationally? Even I had never heard of BNR or David Brock prior to this post.
54  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: TRUMP already got 28% support of Hispanics. NBC Poll(5/9-5/15) on: May 22, 2016, 09:19:14 am


So, a higher percentage of the white vote than Romney got nationally...in New Jersey. And 35% of Hispanics? Complete wishful thinking.

Also IT'S 2016 THRE IS NO SUCH THING AS "REAGAN DEMOCRATS"

============================================================

1. This NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll had '12507' Yuge RV.
2016 General Election - Clinton 48%, Trump 45% (NBC News/SurveyMonkey 5/9-5/15)
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/hillary-clinton-calls-trump-s-guns-schools-plan-way-out-n578161

2. at this Poll, Hispanic: Hillary 65% | TRUMP 28% | No Answer 7%
if I convert it without no answer, TRUMP 28 / 93 =  30.1%.

3. So, Once he got 30%ish Hispanic support of the Yuge RV National Poll
why 35% Hispanic Support in NJ is an impossible goal?
[/quote]

The 30% Hispanic number is assuming Hispanics break 50/50, a very naive assumption with Trump's campaign. It also doesn't take into account that Republicans often overpoll with Hispanics because non English speaking ones are very heavily D.

But besides all that even if the number is 30%, why would NJ Hispanics be significantly MORE conservative than nationally? Republican Hispanics are clustered mostly in Florida, Texas and other Southwest states. NJ ones meanwhile are quite urban.
55  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Ljube on: May 22, 2016, 09:09:05 am
He's unskewing polls now, except he's doing it with completely made up numbers he pulls out of his ass.
56  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NBC/WSJ national poll: Clinton 46% Trump 43% on: May 22, 2016, 09:07:22 am
]
OK, we should expect Trump to reach 15% of blacks eventually,

Even if every single undecided black vote for Trump, he'd still get only 12%.

The whites claim is also baseless but this one is mathematically nonsense.
57  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NJ-Quinnipiac: Clinton 54% Sanders 40% on: May 22, 2016, 08:55:53 am
Wow. If Sanders somehow wins New Jersey this election will be a mess.

Why on Earth would this poll indicate to you that Sanders will win New Jersey?
58  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of posters who always write "Trump" in all caps on: May 22, 2016, 05:27:42 am
At this point, it gets an automatic ignore.

Probably not a bad policy.
59  Forum Community / Forum Community / Opinion of posters who always write "Trump" in all caps on: May 22, 2016, 05:21:36 am
It's no coincidence that every single poster who does this is a completely utterly terrible garbage poster but I suppose in a sense it's a useful habit since it makes it obvious right away who is an idiot not worth listening to. (And yes things like "Drumpf" and using a smaller font for his name are stupid and annoying too.
60  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New Jersey goes Republican? on: May 22, 2016, 05:18:39 am
New Jersey's 2010 Census demographics:

68.6% White American
13.7% African American
0.3% Native American
8.3% Asian American
6.4% other races
2.7% Multiracial American
17.7% of the population were Hispanic or Latino (of any race).

Looking at that, explain how Trump gets to 50%.

1. TRUMP doesn't need to get 50% to win. 49%ish would be enough.
(Garry Johnson,Jill Stein)

2. Considering turnouts
Election 2016 in NJ: Demographcis would be
White 67% | Black 15% | Hispanic 12% | Asian 5% | Other 1%
(in 2012, ass CNN Exit Poll, it was White 67% | Black 18% | Latino 10% | Asian 3%)
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NJ/president/

But I don't think Turnouts of Black voters would so high like 2012.(Hillary is popular with Black. but not enough to induce massive turnouts of black like Obama)

White 67% x 60.5% = 40.53%
Black 15% x 12% = 1.8%
Hispanic 12% x 35% = 4.2%
Asian 5% x 45% = 2.25%
Other 1% x 35% = 0.35%

Total 49.13%

it's not an easy goal, but not an impossible goal either.
if TRUMP unifies the GOP fully and gets 90% of them.
Attract the Reagan Democrats well and gets 15% of them.
He gets 55%+ of the Independent.

So, a higher percentage of the white vote than Romney got nationally...in New Jersey. And 35% of Hispanics? Complete wishful thinking.

Also IT'S 2016 THRE IS NO SUCH THING AS "REAGAN DEMOCRATS"
61  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The SteveMcQueen Theatre of Absurdity, Ignorance, and Bad Posts V on: May 22, 2016, 05:13:21 am
Can we ban ShadowoftheAbyss?  He posted something with "pornhub" in the thread name (which also described it as NSFW) on the off-topic board.  Admittedly, I don't actually know what he posted since I didn't click on the thread (normal/not a pervert), but judging by the thread title, it's probably something horrible.
62  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump perform better or worse than Romney's 2012 result? on: May 21, 2016, 04:07:11 pm
Wasn't Ljube arguing a few days ago Trump is a closet liberal and never meant stuff like the Muslim ban? Now he's a true conservative?
63  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of dax00? on: May 21, 2016, 11:49:23 am
Let's see:

-Mao apologist
-Trump supporter

It's pretty much impossible to be either of those two things on their own and not be a HP. Combine the two...
64  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New Jersey goes Republican? on: May 21, 2016, 11:44:55 am
Using the demographic calculator, and keeping all non-white democraphics the same, I had to push college educated w whites to 70% Trump and non-college educated to 74% Trump to get New Jersey to flip.
65  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New Jersey goes Republican? on: May 21, 2016, 11:42:25 am
New Jersey's 2010 Census demographics:

68.6% White American
13.7% African American
0.3% Native American
8.3% Asian American
6.4% other races
2.7% Multiracial American
17.7% of the population were Hispanic or Latino (of any race).

Looking at that, explain how Trump gets to 50%.
66  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton's campaign just released the worst Venn diagram of all time on: May 21, 2016, 11:24:38 am
The only people who will see this are:

-her donors
-conservative agitator bloggers and their readers.

So in other words zero swing voters. And I suppose also Vox readers...so again, zero swing voters.
67  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: William Weld - Libertarian VP Candidate on: May 21, 2016, 11:02:24 am
And no one bothers to mention (though a few like above have kind of alluded) that Weld isn't even a libertarian (even "small L") This is about as logical as that time someone called Michael Bloomberg a libertarian.

But eh, whatever. Libertarian Party has always been a joke party.
68  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Stop overestimating the intelligence of the average voter. Why Trump could win. on: May 21, 2016, 10:56:37 am
i think this election is any1s game and that clinton will do well but so will trump. maybe trump could make a serious play for the black vote by bringing up his friendship with nelson mandela and clintons "supporrt" of birtherism. clinton will also court the mormon machine.

Trump was for awhile the most prominent birther in America.

69  Forum Community / Forum Community / Opinion of Rick Grimes on: May 21, 2016, 10:55:18 am
Wow guys. I think we just had one of the greatest political minds and analysts of today just sign up here. Check out this guy's amazing insight and takes!

i agree i think NJ is a swing state this time. trump could win it with a coalition of reagan democrats & minorities like christie did it was close in 2004 aswell.  there will be ALOT of trump/obama voters in NJ angry at NY liberalism (look at how chris won).
about the same maybe a bit better becuz whites in minnesota/wisconsin and my state will swing HARD against Trump but he will do MUCH better with reagan democrat whites in states like maryland, delaware, pennsylvania, rhode island, and new jersey. i think illinois will be a swing state this time.
trump could win new jersey we are in for a surprise and i think trump he does well with the catholics just look at the primaries. but i think clinton will pull some surprises in missouri and arkansas were she is favored.
they are both good but arkansas, nj, and illinois are swing. also expected to see some weird stuff going on in oregon and tennesseee maybe mississippi. rhode island is also a lean clinton but BARLEY according to polls.
hmmm maybe johnson gets large funding from the mormon mafia which could help him win some mountain states and throw this thing 2 the house?
i think this election is any1s game and that clinton will do well but so will trump. maybe trump could make a serious play for the black vote by bringing up his friendship with nelson mandela and clintons "supporrt" of birtherism. clinton will also court the mormon machine.
I'm not a Libertarian by any stretch, but if I was I would think I'd be a little ticked that my party is being co-opted by moderate Republicans.

no the libertarian only chance of being relevant would be to attract moderate republicans who are fiscally conservative and socially liberal.
70  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Here's how easy it is to make money off complete f[inks]ing morons on PredictIt on: May 21, 2016, 10:47:09 am
https://www.predictit.org/Market/2112/Which-party-will-win-New-York-in-the-2016-presidential-election

Yes, you can seriously buy Dem Yes shares for 85 cents and Republican No for only 83 cents. Why? Let's look at the discussion:

Quote
I LOVE MYRTLE BEACH 3 days ago

Trump will win NY unless Hillary chooses Bernie as VP. And she wont

4

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    Andrew ZtoA I LOVE MYRTLE BEACH 3 days ago

    Your logic here is impeccable. [/sarcasm]
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        thahound Andrew ZtoA 2 days ago

        But he's right. Trump is being underestimated in NY and the rest of the NE. His campaign knows he's got the South and southwest in the bag, the traditional swing states are falling in line, and now he's going to turn the NE into a swing region. If her campaign doesn't lower the reality distortion field and snap up Sanders for VP, Trump will win the NE and the general in a potential landslide. It's all about enthusiasm. If Sanders' supporters feel they have been snubbed, they will stay home or worse (for Hillary) protest vote for the nuclear option (Trump).

        But you guys keep believin' in Clinton. I don't care. Cheap shares for me. Ya'll are how I turned $40 into $9600 this election season. LOL
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            DLADD16 thahound 2 days ago

            This is a very interesting argument...i like it

Seriously it's amazing how PredictIt is full of people on this level of stupid who are willing to throw their money around. I just hope it's like this in a couple months because I don't want to park all my money there now.
71  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MN-2. Kline to retire. on: May 21, 2016, 08:11:30 am
It's pretty cool how Angie Craig is a lesbians and no one is making a fuss about that. Progress.

In addition to the likely bad Republican candidate this is a district where Trump is going to play very bad.
72  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Ten largest US cities: Freedom Cities or Horrible Cities? on: May 20, 2016, 09:23:44 pm
?
73  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The SteveMcQueen Theatre of Absurdity, Ignorance, and Bad Posts V on: May 20, 2016, 08:12:25 am
about the same maybe a bit better becuz whites in minnesota/wisconsin and my state will swing HARD against Trump but he will do MUCH better with reagan democrat whites in states like maryland, delaware, pennsylvania, rhode island, and new jersey. i think illinois will be a swing state this time.
74  General Discussion / History / Re: Most underrated evil person in history? on: May 19, 2016, 10:40:37 pm
Also Fernando Romeo Lucas Garca. He was probably the worst dictator in the Western Hemisphere in the 20th century, yet virtually no one knows who he was.
75  General Discussion / History / Re: Most underrated evil person in history? on: May 19, 2016, 10:31:21 pm
Yahya Khan

I'm sure Xahar will be at least somewhat in agreement.

Also Leopold II of Belgium doesn't get a whole lot of attention in comparison to his death toll. You will often see him on "great villains of history" lists, but usually just as an afterthought.
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