Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 23, 2014, 02:36:36 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 ... 2435 2436 2437 2438 2439 [2440] 2441 2442 2443 2444 2445 ... 2537
60976  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Bush Vs. Carter on: November 19, 2004, 09:33:28 pm
Carter
60977  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Bentsen vs. Quayle on: November 19, 2004, 09:32:42 pm
The VP's of 1988 up instead. What's a map look like?

Here's what I say:

60978  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Lyndon Johnson vs. Barry Goldwater on: November 19, 2004, 09:22:37 pm
look at it this way: if me and StatesRights actually agree on something, it must be true.
60979  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why does the left have to create such racist cartoons? on: November 19, 2004, 01:43:56 pm
You want a racist, intolerant cartoon created by the left? This takes my #1 spot:



that one even pissed me off. Ted Rall is probably the only liberal who can cross the line with me, which he previously did with his "Terror Widows" strip.
60980  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Question for Republicans that think land is more important than people on: November 19, 2004, 12:55:39 pm
The Electoral Vote is not determined by land. Each state gets a certain number of Representatives to the House, and that number is the same number of EVs that the state gets. The number of Reps, and therefore EVs, is based on population. Land has nothing to do with it. Also, I've never seen anyone argue that the president won because he got more land, just that he received more EVs.

I know that about the EV. Like I said this is a completely different argument, but I have heard it before. You've never seen the analyses that show that Bush won so much more square milage and all that? I wonder if I can find that old post by Reaganfan where cites Dave's county map and basically says cities don't matter.

Philip has also basically argued many times that land is more important than people in voting.
60981  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: McCain 53 / Hillary 37 says Opinion Dynamics 08 Poll on: November 19, 2004, 12:42:58 pm
how long before Reaganfan starts arguing these polls actually matter one iota?
60982  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: If Hillary gets the nomination in 2008... on: November 19, 2004, 12:41:22 pm
I think Schumer has already basically confirmed he isn't running because he'll be in charge of the NSSC instead.

If that's the case it's looks like Spitzer's a shoo-in. yes!
60983  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Gore vs. Alan Keyes on: November 19, 2004, 12:30:29 pm
Let's say the Republicans for whatever reason decide to nominate Keyes in 2000. What's a map look like?

note: Despite what many might think, Keyes would not win the Dakotas.
60984  General Politics / Individual Politics / Question for Republicans that think land is more important than people on: November 19, 2004, 12:26:16 pm
In 2000 Gore could've won the EV without a single county flipping. The map would still look the same. If that happened would you still argue Bush was the real winner because of how the map looks? Even though this argument is basically obsolete now, it drove me crazy for 4 years, it's one thing to debate the merits of the electoral college, but arguing the true winner is the guy who wins the most land is just asinine.
60985  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Democratic suburbs abandon Gregoire on: November 19, 2004, 12:23:31 pm
The national vote is completely irrelevant

Did Wyoming trend Democrat from 1960 to 1964?
60986  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: PCN analysis: Rendell will cruise into a second-term on: November 19, 2004, 12:21:54 pm
Guess Phil and soulty are wrong then.
60987  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: pennsylvania was close!!! on: November 19, 2004, 12:15:01 pm

It was an over sampling of Philadelphia, is what it was.

No so much an "oversampling" per se, but there was massive turnout in Phily, almost counteracted by massive turnout elsewhere on the GOP side.

Kerry won Phily HUGE in 2004, he had a margin of about 400,000 votes versus about 348,000 in 2000 for Gore.

When turnout in Phily became clear, there was a natural assumption to call the state.

Kerry won Allegheny by about 95,000 (94,000 in 2000 for Gore), Montgomerty by about 45,000 (33,000 in 2000), and Deleware by about 41,000 (28,000 in 2000)

The Bush folks actually did a pretty good job GOTV too, but he was down 600K just in the 4 counties.

I remember J. J. talking about how blacks were so unethusiastic and there would be such low turnout. lol.
60988  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: pennsylvania was close!!! on: November 19, 2004, 12:14:27 pm
Actually, there was a consistent pattern of Kerry states getting called by the Networks much more quickly than Bush states with similar margins of victory.

In many cases the gap was rather dramatic.

Using the CNN call times:

Maryland   - Kerry +12.98% - called in 0 minutes
West Virginia - Bush +12.81%   - called in 18 minutes

North Carolina - Bush + 12.65% - Called in 72 minutes
Arizona - Bush +10.47% called in 208 minutes
Connecticut - Kerry + 10.36% - called in 1 minute
Illinois - Kerry + 10.12%  - called in 1 minute   
California   - Kerry +9.93% - called in 5 minutes
Arkansas   - Bush +9.83% - Called in 195 Minutes

Missouri - Bush +7.30% called in 136 minutes
Washington -Kerry +7.14% called in 0 minutes

Colorado   - Bush +6.45% called in 204 minutes
New Jersey - Kerry +6.17% - Called in 0 minutes

Oregon - Kerry + 4.1% was called in 62 minutes
Florida - Bush +5.02% took over 5 hours...

I am sure CNN was just being extra careful this year. 

As "the most trusted name in news" nobody would ever suggest an structural bias in their coverage of any kind, I am sure...

big difference, most of those Bush states were considered to be swing states at one point, all those Kerry states were thought to be rather safe from the start. Was there any point when it was in doubt Kerry would win Maryland or Connecticut?
60989  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: If Hillary gets the nomination in 2008... on: November 19, 2004, 12:12:03 pm
that's what I've been saying, if Rudy is smart he realizes he has no chance on winning the presidential nomination (of course I have yet to see any evidence he wants to run) so he'd run for Senate or Governor instead, assuming he wants to continue a political career which I suspect he doesn't. But we'll see. I think he would rather be Governor than Senator and might try for that in 2006, since Pataki is rather unpopular he either might not run or would be easy to take out in the primaries.
60990  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Ancestry on Atlas on: November 18, 2004, 11:38:52 pm
mostly Swedish, and some Norwegian and German.
60991  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Mondale VS. Dole on: November 18, 2004, 11:34:00 pm
Mondale. duh.
60992  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: If Hillary gets the nomination in 2008... on: November 18, 2004, 11:05:10 pm
I'd vote for her, but it'd honestly just be because of Minnesota's Democratic-voting streak.
60993  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Lyndon Johnson vs. Barry Goldwater on: November 18, 2004, 10:36:46 pm
I'm not sure.

But his comment on gays in the military was something like "Who cares if you are straight? All that matters is if you can shoot straight."
60994  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Lyndon Johnson vs. Barry Goldwater on: November 18, 2004, 10:32:44 pm
it's true, Goldwater was one of the most socially liberal politicians of his time. His opposition to the Civil Rights had nothing to do with racism. And he also had very progressive positions on womens' rights and gay rights, he generally just didn't think the federal government should've enforced them. I can respect the guy, and let's not forget this quote: "Every good Christian should line up and kick Jerry Falwell's ass!"
60995  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Ironically, Iowa actually went from a Republican state to Democrat state on: November 18, 2004, 10:29:14 pm
As long as states stay prodominantly rural, they will normally lean Conservative.  Once the states become more urban, they begin to lean Liberal.

that's not always true.

compare Lake county, MN (rural) to Pennington county, SD (urban)
60996  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: the upper Midwest point 2: polls on: November 18, 2004, 10:27:26 pm
I never had any doubt Kerry would win Minnesota, but right before the election many people were saying it would be the closest state in the country. It wasn't even in the top 8. Most put Wisconsin in Bush's column. He didn't get it. Iowa was considered to be solid for Bush. He got it by less than a point.

But of course the polls did show these predictions to be reasonable. So then is then do pollsters tend to overestimate Republican support in the upper Midwest? If so, why and how can it end?

Minnesota Real Clear Politics average was Kerry 3.2; Kerry won by 3.4%. As Sam Spade noted, the Democrats in Minnesota had a better GOTV drive in this state. Conversely, the time and money Democrats spent in this generally safe state could have been poured into other states.

Iowa This state was never solid Bush. RCP average was .3%; Bush won it by .9%

Wisconsin RCP average was .9% Bush; Kerry won it by .4%. Not a huge swing by any stretch of the imagination.

Quote
  But of course the polls did show these predictions to be reasonable. So then is then do pollsters tend to overestimate Republican support in the upper Midwest? If so, why and how can it end?

When you average out the state polls (and ignore anecdotal evidence) in the upper Midwest, the poll numbers are actually close. There might be a few outliers here and there, but nothing that would construed an overestimation of Republican support.


is this an average of ALL polls? The numbers were much more in Bush's favor than they were during the summer. Also does it include crappy polls like Zogby Interactive and the StarTrib ones that probably brought Kerry's average way up?
60997  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: McCain 53 / Hillary 37 says Opinion Dynamics 08 Poll on: November 18, 2004, 10:24:55 pm
McCain won't run. Sure he's popular but let's be realisitic...he won't be running for President again.

for once we agree. A 72 year old with skin cancer doesn't strike me as a prime candidate to launch a campaign.
60998  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: the upper Midwest point 2: polls on: November 18, 2004, 11:59:27 am
What is with this area anyway??  They are so unique in that they have huge blocks of rural votes.  It's the area I like to call Cedar.  Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, Dubuque, Iowa City, Quad Cities, Ottumwa, Madison, Janesville, LaCrosse, Eau Claire, Winona, Albert Lea, Des Moines, Plattville, and just about every rural county in between.  While at the same time, suburban Chicago and suburban Milwaukee vote heavily Republican in comparison.  It's always intrigued me how the Dems have consitently edged out the Republicans here in rural and small-city America.  Is it the unions?  Is it the proximity to water?  Is it lack of GOP attn.?  This area is by far, the exception to every rule and stereotype about voting demographics/geography.

It's part of a dwindling Farmer-Progressive political cuture that is slowly being taken over by the Flyover-Megachurch political culture.  It was once a much larger area, spreading all over the upper Mississippi valley and into the Dakotas.  The area of Southeast Minnesota, western Wisconsin, and Eastern Iowa is one of the last strongholds.  By 2020, only the cities will be Democrat, and the whole countryside will be Republican, just like rural Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and eastern Wisconsin.

not in all cases. I don't know about Iowa, but that part of Southeast Minnesota is not trending Republican at all, and the area around Duluth definately won't be going Republican any time soon.

Also, people in the rural and Democratic parts of the upper Midwest for the most part do not like the religious right. Even if they are somewhat socially conservative, they don't appreciate fundamentalists of the Falwell/Robertson variety telling them what to do, and there aren't many people in fundamentalist churches out there (mostly ethnic Catholic/Lutheran). That's why I don't think wedge issues will work here like they have in other areas. I've noticed that most of the evangelical wackos in Minnesota tend to be based out of the suburbs and I've seen many more churches there than in the rural parts, another reason I hate suburbs.
60999  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Thing you agree with the other party on the most on: November 17, 2004, 10:43:08 pm
race based affirmative action
61000  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: the upper Midwest point 2: polls on: November 17, 2004, 10:10:26 pm
yeah, that's my point. the poll watchers weren't expecting it to be so close.
Pages: 1 ... 2435 2436 2437 2438 2439 [2440] 2441 2442 2443 2444 2445 ... 2537


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines