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726  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Rasmussen daily samples on: October 15, 2004, 09:16:18 pm
I was just curious if anyone's going to post the daily Rasmussen samples.  I saw last weeks samples posted on Saturday, but haven't seen any since.  Is this just a once a week post?  Thanks.
727  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Rasmussen in 2002? on: October 15, 2004, 04:01:00 pm
Vorlon, did Rasmussen poll senate, house, and govenor races in 2002?  If he did, do you know how his results compared to the actual results?  I thought someone mentioned that he was better in 2002 than his bad performance in 2000.
728  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush +4 says Zogby on: October 15, 2004, 10:39:36 am
As soon as I saw the numbers, I laughed.  I wish they were true, but let's get serious.  Unless a couple million people were turned off by the Mary Cheney comment, this won't last.

I've been following Rasmussen's poll since early January, and I think it has done remarkably well.   It has been very consistent, and it's moves have coincided pretty well with the general sense of the public.  Remember, that's just my opinion.
729  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rasmussen out with Ohio on: October 14, 2004, 04:48:10 pm
Didn't know all that.  Thanks!
730  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Rasmussen out with Ohio on: October 14, 2004, 04:13:43 pm
Rasmussen released ne Ohio numbers.  He has Bush at 49 and Kerry at 47.  What happened here.  The numbers Pollwatch99 posted from the premium section didn't show this.  Does this a difference come from leaners?
731  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / New Washington Post numbers on: October 14, 2004, 04:05:50 pm
The new numbers are 48-48.  Registered voters are 47-47.  I'm not sure what that means about yesterday's results.  With a debate, it's tough to say.  Any guesses.
732  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: TIPP: Bush +3 and +4 on: October 14, 2004, 02:43:53 pm
Well, I was just about to ask Vorlon what he thought of the TIPP poll.  I followed the 2000 election closely, but not like this year.  I find all of these tracking polls interesting, but painful to follow.  The ups and downs are too much.

Vorlon, what's your impression of Battleground?  They seem to have done well in 1992 and 1996, but missed the DUI story in the last days of 2000.  What do you know about the techniques and tendencies?
733  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rasmussen State BOT's: 10/13 on: October 13, 2004, 06:17:41 pm
Thanks for posting those numbers.  As a Bush fan, I'm concerned about the Florida number.  Bush's is leaking a little oil.  By the way, do you have the daily Rasmussen national numbers?  Thanks!
734  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tracking vs. Standard on: October 13, 2004, 05:18:26 pm
Gotcha!
735  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Tracking vs. Standard on: October 13, 2004, 04:58:24 pm
I'm sure this question has been asked and answered before, but I'm new here.  What are the differences between tracking polls and standard run on the mill poll?  I appreciate any help.
736  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New ABC Poll on: October 13, 2004, 04:18:43 pm
Vorlon, do you think this has spike written all over it?  Seven points in two days is a lot without a major news event.
737  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New ABC Poll on: October 13, 2004, 02:46:58 pm
That's what I figured also.  I think the ABC tracking poll has had it 50-46 for three days.  I'm not sure what a one day jump like this means.  Given that they use a four day average, one would think that big moves like this would be less likely.  Is it a spike, I don't know.
738  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / New ABC Poll on: October 13, 2004, 02:36:04 pm
I just read on NRO's "The Corner" that ABC has a new poll out today.  I'm not sure if he was reporting new tracking numbers or a stand alone poll.  Regardless, he said the rumor was 48-48.  I suspect it's just the updated tracking results, but it certainly means Kerry's had a great couple of days.  In ABC's tracking poll, it's been 50-46 for several days.  Who knows.
739  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Pollwatch on: October 13, 2004, 09:53:05 am
Have you posted the daily Rasmussen numbers for the last few days?  The last I saw ended with Saturday.  I was just curious to see what type of day Bush had that dropped him two points.
740  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Chicago Tribune POlls of Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesoat on: October 12, 2004, 10:33:32 pm
I'll put my two cents in on these Tribune polls.  Unless I'm mistaken, they only questioned 500 LV's.  As far as polls go, that seems smaller than usual.  Second, they polled on a Saturday and Sunday.  Third, they are completely opposite of Rasmussen and SV.  Still, they have to be considered.  Only a fool would disregard a bad poll.  Always run from behind.  Stay aggresive.
741  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC/WP tracking polls on: October 12, 2004, 04:17:27 pm
Well, the new WP numbers are out and it's now 50-47 among likely voters.  Among registered voters, Kerry leads 48-46.  Monday must have been a great day for Kerry.
742  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / ABC/WP tracking polls on: October 12, 2004, 01:54:14 pm
We've seen divergent moves in tracking polls toady.  Rasmussen went one way and Zogby went the other.  While tracking results can be affected by "noise", what does everyone expect we might see in the ABC/WP poll today?
743  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The 'Bot says Bush 47.4 - Kerry 45.8, plus Iowa, Wisconsin and Alabama polls on: October 12, 2004, 10:23:20 am
Vorlon, it looks like a good Bush day rolled off Rasmussen's survey.  Kerry doesn't appear to have made much headway though.  He's still at 45.8 which isn't too far from his Saturday and Sunday numbers.  Is that the direction you're leaning?  What are the raw numbers over the last two days?
744  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Battleground Poll on: October 11, 2004, 03:50:11 pm
With the exception of 2000, Battleground performed very well in 1992 and 1996.  I saw that the numbers they released yesterday showed a move back to Bush on Wednesday.  That seemed to be the consensus of the tracking poll, excluding Zogby.

Will the Battleground results only be released at the end of the week or are going to start releasing their numbers daily?  Why wait until Sunday afternoon for a weekly poll dump?
745  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Questions for Vorlon on: October 11, 2004, 10:15:06 am
Thanks for the quick response.  I really appreciate it.  I'm no fan of Zogby for reasons other than his polling.  But your right, he did a very poor job in Senate races in 2002.  But, he did well in 1996 and 2000.  My hope is that he hasn't caught the surge in conservative voting since 9/11.  Republicans seem to have outperformed in the big races since then.  That's just my speculation and my hope.
746  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Questions for Vorlon on: October 11, 2004, 09:51:42 am
Vorlon, I'm new here so I have a little catching up to do.  First, why is Rasmussen called the BOT?  Second, I saw daily results for Rasmussen's poll.  Where can I find that and do those numbers exist for ABC/WP?  Third,  what do you make of Zogby's poll?  His numbers all year have gone against most polling and today seems to be no different.  Thanks in advance and I'll checking regularly.
747  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / New poster with questions on: October 10, 2004, 06:29:25 pm
I'm new to the site and I'm really glad I found it.  I look at Rasmussen's site each day and I'm glad to see Bush at or close to 50%.  I was wondering where the actual daily results are posted on the site?  Also, has someone figured out what the daily results for ABC/WP are?  I really enjoy seeing those numbers.

In my untrained opinion, it looks like Kerry got about a 5 day bounce from the first debate.  With the exception of Zogby, the other tracking polls seem to show that.  As a Bush fan, I'm interested to see if Bush gets any bounce from the second debate.

As I said, I'm really glad I found this site and I look forward to checking frequently.
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