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726  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New "Battleground" - Bush +3/+4 on: October 17, 2004, 10:24:03 pm
The interesting thing about the Battleground numbers come from the internals.  On the last day polling was conducted, each of the underlying questions were back to levels Bush had when he enjoyed an eight point lead in the poll.  Thursday must have been a dynamite day for Bush.  Maybe these were the numbers Charlie Cook was refering to on "Hardboiled" Friday.  I wish they would release these numbers daily now that there are 16 days to go.
727  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re: Pat Buchanan to endorse Bush tomorrow on: October 17, 2004, 10:16:12 pm
I'll tell you the one reason why he's endorsing Bush.  It's Hillary Clinton.  His big fear and mine is that Kerry may appoint Hillary Clinton Chief Justice of the United States Supreme Court.  I would say, "God help us", but she might decide God can't be said in public.
728  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New "Battleground" - Bush +3/+4 on: October 17, 2004, 09:15:23 pm
This poll seems to show what we saw in the ABC and WAPO polls.  Kerry entered the week with some momentum, but it quickly swung back to Bush.  If you look at the trend lines for each topic, they all moved strongly in Bush favor on the last day of polling.  That seems to fit what we have seen this weekend, but we won't know what Battleground found until next week.  Crap!
729  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Battleground numbers out on: October 17, 2004, 09:09:04 pm
Battleground released it's new numbers tonight and they have Bush ahead by three and by four on the unaided ballot.  Interestingly, Bush trailed Kerry by a point in the middle of the week at 48-47, but quickly turned it around to a 49-46 lead.  The poll ended on Thursday so if there has been movement to Bush we won't know until next when they release new numbers.  At the end of the week, Bush's job approval had risen to 53 which is the highest it has been in the poll.
730  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kuwaiti News Agency says Abu Musaab ‏Zarqawi captured on: October 17, 2004, 09:04:02 pm
I would like to believe it, but I saw someone else on another site said that the U.S. military denied the story in a Rueters press release.  Sorry.
731  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Battleground Poll on: October 17, 2004, 05:07:36 pm
Are we going to get their results today?  Normally, they release their results at 5:00 PM.  Maybe we'll have to wait until tomorrow.
732  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kerry Surges to 3% lead in first Post Debate Zogby Survey... on: October 17, 2004, 09:39:20 am
I fully expect to see Bush trailing in the Zogby poll tomorrow.  His poll has moved all over the place in the last two weeks.  The nasty side of me believes this was all a setup to say that Kerry is surging because of the debates.
733  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Time Bush 48 Kerry 46 Nader 3 (LV 10/14-10/15 Internals are confusing ) on: October 16, 2004, 01:53:10 pm
That's what I'm talking about.  Battleground can shed some light on all of these fliskering bulbs.  That's unless I don't like the numbers!!!
734  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / National poll and Electoral votes on: October 16, 2004, 01:51:46 pm
Now that we're in the homestrech, I thought I would ask a question about how national vote percentages relate to electoral votes.  Does anyone know if there is a relationship between the two?  In other words, does a gap of four percetage points, say 50-46, equate to a certain number of electoral votes?  I know it's a state game, but the national numbers do provide at least a general sense of the national mood.
735  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Newsweek: Bush +2 among RV's on: October 16, 2004, 10:36:36 am
I think the most interesting line had to do with the gender breakdown.  Bush leads among women 49-43 yet trails among men.  Based on the past, it's very hard to believe that Bush is behind among men.  I just can't believe that.
736  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Bush – Kerry gap on 10/17/2004 on: October 16, 2004, 09:36:21 am
I'm surprised by the Rasmussen numbers.  It looks like Bush is starting to slip.  Weekends are always volitile, but Kerry looks to be gaining.
737  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Rasmussen daily samples on: October 15, 2004, 09:16:18 pm
I was just curious if anyone's going to post the daily Rasmussen samples.  I saw last weeks samples posted on Saturday, but haven't seen any since.  Is this just a once a week post?  Thanks.
738  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Rasmussen in 2002? on: October 15, 2004, 04:01:00 pm
Vorlon, did Rasmussen poll senate, house, and govenor races in 2002?  If he did, do you know how his results compared to the actual results?  I thought someone mentioned that he was better in 2002 than his bad performance in 2000.
739  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush +4 says Zogby on: October 15, 2004, 10:39:36 am
As soon as I saw the numbers, I laughed.  I wish they were true, but let's get serious.  Unless a couple million people were turned off by the Mary Cheney comment, this won't last.

I've been following Rasmussen's poll since early January, and I think it has done remarkably well.   It has been very consistent, and it's moves have coincided pretty well with the general sense of the public.  Remember, that's just my opinion.
740  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rasmussen out with Ohio on: October 14, 2004, 04:48:10 pm
Didn't know all that.  Thanks!
741  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Rasmussen out with Ohio on: October 14, 2004, 04:13:43 pm
Rasmussen released ne Ohio numbers.  He has Bush at 49 and Kerry at 47.  What happened here.  The numbers Pollwatch99 posted from the premium section didn't show this.  Does this a difference come from leaners?
742  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / New Washington Post numbers on: October 14, 2004, 04:05:50 pm
The new numbers are 48-48.  Registered voters are 47-47.  I'm not sure what that means about yesterday's results.  With a debate, it's tough to say.  Any guesses.
743  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: TIPP: Bush +3 and +4 on: October 14, 2004, 02:43:53 pm
Well, I was just about to ask Vorlon what he thought of the TIPP poll.  I followed the 2000 election closely, but not like this year.  I find all of these tracking polls interesting, but painful to follow.  The ups and downs are too much.

Vorlon, what's your impression of Battleground?  They seem to have done well in 1992 and 1996, but missed the DUI story in the last days of 2000.  What do you know about the techniques and tendencies?
744  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rasmussen State BOT's: 10/13 on: October 13, 2004, 06:17:41 pm
Thanks for posting those numbers.  As a Bush fan, I'm concerned about the Florida number.  Bush's is leaking a little oil.  By the way, do you have the daily Rasmussen national numbers?  Thanks!
745  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tracking vs. Standard on: October 13, 2004, 05:18:26 pm
Gotcha!
746  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Tracking vs. Standard on: October 13, 2004, 04:58:24 pm
I'm sure this question has been asked and answered before, but I'm new here.  What are the differences between tracking polls and standard run on the mill poll?  I appreciate any help.
747  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New ABC Poll on: October 13, 2004, 04:18:43 pm
Vorlon, do you think this has spike written all over it?  Seven points in two days is a lot without a major news event.
748  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New ABC Poll on: October 13, 2004, 02:46:58 pm
That's what I figured also.  I think the ABC tracking poll has had it 50-46 for three days.  I'm not sure what a one day jump like this means.  Given that they use a four day average, one would think that big moves like this would be less likely.  Is it a spike, I don't know.
749  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / New ABC Poll on: October 13, 2004, 02:36:04 pm
I just read on NRO's "The Corner" that ABC has a new poll out today.  I'm not sure if he was reporting new tracking numbers or a stand alone poll.  Regardless, he said the rumor was 48-48.  I suspect it's just the updated tracking results, but it certainly means Kerry's had a great couple of days.  In ABC's tracking poll, it's been 50-46 for several days.  Who knows.
750  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Pollwatch on: October 13, 2004, 09:53:05 am
Have you posted the daily Rasmussen numbers for the last few days?  The last I saw ended with Saturday.  I was just curious to see what type of day Bush had that dropped him two points.
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