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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie did worse to Hillary than what Nader did to Al Gore on: September 24, 2016, 11:43:00 am
Hillary is a bad candidate that no one likes that was pushed through by the party bosses because her last name is Clinton. Had she had any credible primary challenger aside from a 72 year old socialist who wasn't even a Democrat, I bet the same thing happens to her that happened in 2008.

The saddest thing is, the GOP nominated one of the few candidates she could actually beat.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton does Between 2 Ferns on: September 22, 2016, 04:29:26 pm
This is a wonderful show!
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will Dubya vote for? on: September 20, 2016, 11:56:10 am
Hillary, but don't expect a public endorsement.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is Causing the Latest Hillary Slide? on: September 14, 2016, 05:30:23 pm
Email leaks, health concerns, deplorable comment, and the fact Trump hasn't made any really stupid comment or started any crazy feuds recently. I also think a lot of the holdouts are finally coming home to him because Hillary just isn't a good candidate nor is she likable.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH-Bloomberg: Trump +5/+5 on: September 14, 2016, 10:15:30 am
Trump has been leading OH for the last few polls actually. Not sure how this is anymore junk than the rest.

Hillary's health has become an issue and until its settled, I expect her poll numbers will dip.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton leaves 9/11 memorial early due to 'overheating' - Update: diagnosed with pneumonia on: September 11, 2016, 06:54:18 pm
If anything, she and Trump both need to release medical records. Hillary and her allies have been dodging this question for a while now, but it's clear she isn't well, just how unwell we don't know. But like anything with Hillary, I presume she won't do anything, say anything, or reveal anything unless it's absolutely necessary, like today where she couldn't hide from the questions anymore.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton FBI Release Megathread: Hillary's 11 cell phones, concussion, etc on: September 02, 2016, 04:58:54 pm
It's really amazing she has gotten away with all of this without any ramifications.

And even sadder that the GOP nominated a candidate that's just as disliked as she is.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Would you like to have both candidates replaced? on: August 28, 2016, 05:04:13 pm
Yes, absolutely. I would have enthusiastically backed Jeb or Kasich, and hell if it were Biden v. Trump I'd happily back Biden.

Right now I am in between holding my nose for Hillary, not voting for president at all, or voting for Johnson
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Trump rebounding slowly? on: August 28, 2016, 05:02:46 pm
The Khan fiasco hurt him a lot given he was actually tied or ahead in most polls prior.

His new campaign team seems to be keeping him on a shorter leash, and he's strangely pivoting to make his positions seem not as crazy, not that I believe Trump has any actual policy planks.

The advantage he has is Hillary is really unlikeable and there are plenty of people supporting her because they feel like there is no other option. I think Trump will continue to pull closer until he makes another gaffe, but who knows.

We may not see much movement in the polls until the first debate.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nate Silver: Too early for HRC to run out the clock; Trump seems to be gaining on: August 28, 2016, 04:59:07 pm
Hillary is far too unlikeable to just run out the clock. Yes, Trump has high negatives, but he could conceivably turn it around. I think there are plenty of people (like myself) looking for reasons NOT to vote for her, because of her track record, temperament, aura of entitlement, corruption, and the like, but the GOP just did a fantastic job at trying to throw this election to the Dems when it should have been an easy win.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Coulter: If Clinton wins, illegal immigrant amnesty means permanent D majority on: August 23, 2016, 09:07:44 pm
She is right. That's why I wanted Bush to get his amnesty through years ago, but the GOP didn't back him.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA/CO/VA-Quinnipiac: Clinton +3/+2 in IA, +10/+8 in CO, +12/+11 in VA on: August 17, 2016, 01:16:43 pm
Look at those Johnson numbers. WOW!
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will Fairfax County, VA vote? on: August 15, 2016, 06:46:56 pm
She'll probably get 65% or so, if not more. She won't break 70
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: SC-PPP: Trump +2 on: August 14, 2016, 02:40:13 pm
This really isn't too shocking. Lots of establishment Republicans live along the coast with me, and a lot of them do not like Trump and will likely either sit out the presidential election or hold their nose for Hillary.

Near Myrtle Beach? If so then SC is really in play because that area is staunch Repub

I'm in Charleston, which usually goes Democratic but the GOP gets 45% or so. This year i expect it to be a lot less than that. Myrtle may trend hard left too, but we'll have to see.

Romney did even better than that in Charleston County. It's about a D+6 county relative to the state. (I tried to do a quick read of geographic terminology for SC.) If a poll like this is accurate, I'd imagine Hillary would have to be overperforming in the Low Country and in heavy African-American areas including Columbia.

On the surface, it would seem like Greenville and Spartanburg and that general area isn't prime territory for Democratic overperformance. I do imagine that area is probably particularly religious and I'd bet that the churches do a lot of the work for Republicans in terms of getting out the vote. I'm sure Trump will do great in that area, but I have to wonder how particularly enamored the clergy is with Trump. Now, like I basically said, I'm not entirely familiar with South Carolina in that sense, but would I be correct in thinking that a perfect storm for a Hillary victory in SC would be high turnout among blacks, winning over a significant number of college-educated whites (such as County Club Republicans) in the Low Country, and depressed turnout in the very religious and socially conservative Greenville and Spartanburg area (particularly SC-03 and SC-04)?

(Fwiw, on a sidenote, I just remembered during my research of SC politics how particularly catastrophic 2010 was for Democrats in seeing John Spratt defeated.)

Romney played well here for the most part and was able to get some of the Republican votes that Obama picked up in 2008. I anticipate Trump will bleed support in that area because we all know he won't get 92% of Republicans like Romney did.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico: RNC considering pulling money from Trump on: August 14, 2016, 02:32:34 pm
Another week, another threat like this. I'm sure nothing will come of it.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Susan Collins: "taking a look" at Libertarian ticket, would be "easier choice" on: August 14, 2016, 12:29:52 pm
It's too bad that the libertarian ticket isn't flipped. I'd have no trouble voting for Weld, but I just can't take Gary Johnson seriously
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: SC-PPP: Trump +2 on: August 13, 2016, 01:15:32 pm
This really isn't too shocking. Lots of establishment Republicans live along the coast with me, and a lot of them do not like Trump and will likely either sit out the presidential election or hold their nose for Hillary.

Near Myrtle Beach? If so then SC is really in play because that area is staunch Repub

I'm in Charleston, which usually goes Democratic but the GOP gets 45% or so. This year i expect it to be a lot less than that. Myrtle may trend hard left too, but we'll have to see.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: SC-PPP: Trump +2 on: August 13, 2016, 12:35:44 pm
This really isn't too shocking. Lots of establishment Republicans live along the coast with me, and a lot of them do not like Trump and will likely either sit out the presidential election or hold their nose for Hillary.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Will Hillary win reelection? on: August 09, 2016, 09:03:43 pm
Who knows. We're due for a recession and I expect the next president will have to take the blame for it. If Hillary is in office and the gop doesn't nominate a disaster, they should win
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton challenges Trump to show up at all 3 scheduled debates - will he? on: August 09, 2016, 07:34:17 pm
He'll show up to all three. His handlers won't allow him to skip debates
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rumor:Romney, McCain, Bush, other major Republicans Set to Endorse Gary Johnson on: August 08, 2016, 11:19:57 am
Wasn't jeb supposed to endorse Johnson a few weeks ago as was rumored? I'll take this was a grain of salt.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How many people will cast a vote for President this year? on: August 07, 2016, 05:10:55 pm
I can't see it approaching the 2012 or 2008 levels merely because the candidates are much less likable than Romney/McCain or Obama.

23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Gary Johnson crack 5% of the PV? on: August 06, 2016, 01:26:28 pm
Too soon to tell. If he somehow makes it into the debates then yet. I could also see his support cratering and him getting less than 2% if he doesn't raise money or make the debates.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win Suffolk County, NY? on: August 05, 2016, 10:10:03 pm
Clinton. I don't see how Trump out performs Romney or Bush in the NYC area.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win Nassau County, NY? on: August 05, 2016, 03:46:36 pm
If Romney and Bush couldn't win it, I highly doubt Trump will.
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