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August 26, 2016, 09:56:56 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Coulter: If Clinton wins, illegal immigrant amnesty means permanent D majority on: August 23, 2016, 09:07:44 pm
She is right. That's why I wanted Bush to get his amnesty through years ago, but the GOP didn't back him.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA/CO/VA-Quinnipiac: Clinton +3/+2 in IA, +10/+8 in CO, +12/+11 in VA on: August 17, 2016, 01:16:43 pm
Look at those Johnson numbers. WOW!
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will Fairfax County, VA vote? on: August 15, 2016, 06:46:56 pm
She'll probably get 65% or so, if not more. She won't break 70
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: SC-PPP: Trump +2 on: August 14, 2016, 02:40:13 pm
This really isn't too shocking. Lots of establishment Republicans live along the coast with me, and a lot of them do not like Trump and will likely either sit out the presidential election or hold their nose for Hillary.

Near Myrtle Beach? If so then SC is really in play because that area is staunch Repub

I'm in Charleston, which usually goes Democratic but the GOP gets 45% or so. This year i expect it to be a lot less than that. Myrtle may trend hard left too, but we'll have to see.

Romney did even better than that in Charleston County. It's about a D+6 county relative to the state. (I tried to do a quick read of geographic terminology for SC.) If a poll like this is accurate, I'd imagine Hillary would have to be overperforming in the Low Country and in heavy African-American areas including Columbia.

On the surface, it would seem like Greenville and Spartanburg and that general area isn't prime territory for Democratic overperformance. I do imagine that area is probably particularly religious and I'd bet that the churches do a lot of the work for Republicans in terms of getting out the vote. I'm sure Trump will do great in that area, but I have to wonder how particularly enamored the clergy is with Trump. Now, like I basically said, I'm not entirely familiar with South Carolina in that sense, but would I be correct in thinking that a perfect storm for a Hillary victory in SC would be high turnout among blacks, winning over a significant number of college-educated whites (such as County Club Republicans) in the Low Country, and depressed turnout in the very religious and socially conservative Greenville and Spartanburg area (particularly SC-03 and SC-04)?

(Fwiw, on a sidenote, I just remembered during my research of SC politics how particularly catastrophic 2010 was for Democrats in seeing John Spratt defeated.)

Romney played well here for the most part and was able to get some of the Republican votes that Obama picked up in 2008. I anticipate Trump will bleed support in that area because we all know he won't get 92% of Republicans like Romney did.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico: RNC considering pulling money from Trump on: August 14, 2016, 02:32:34 pm
Another week, another threat like this. I'm sure nothing will come of it.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Susan Collins: "taking a look" at Libertarian ticket, would be "easier choice" on: August 14, 2016, 12:29:52 pm
It's too bad that the libertarian ticket isn't flipped. I'd have no trouble voting for Weld, but I just can't take Gary Johnson seriously
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: SC-PPP: Trump +2 on: August 13, 2016, 01:15:32 pm
This really isn't too shocking. Lots of establishment Republicans live along the coast with me, and a lot of them do not like Trump and will likely either sit out the presidential election or hold their nose for Hillary.

Near Myrtle Beach? If so then SC is really in play because that area is staunch Repub

I'm in Charleston, which usually goes Democratic but the GOP gets 45% or so. This year i expect it to be a lot less than that. Myrtle may trend hard left too, but we'll have to see.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: SC-PPP: Trump +2 on: August 13, 2016, 12:35:44 pm
This really isn't too shocking. Lots of establishment Republicans live along the coast with me, and a lot of them do not like Trump and will likely either sit out the presidential election or hold their nose for Hillary.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Will Hillary win reelection? on: August 09, 2016, 09:03:43 pm
Who knows. We're due for a recession and I expect the next president will have to take the blame for it. If Hillary is in office and the gop doesn't nominate a disaster, they should win
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton challenges Trump to show up at all 3 scheduled debates - will he? on: August 09, 2016, 07:34:17 pm
He'll show up to all three. His handlers won't allow him to skip debates
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rumor:Romney, McCain, Bush, other major Republicans Set to Endorse Gary Johnson on: August 08, 2016, 11:19:57 am
Wasn't jeb supposed to endorse Johnson a few weeks ago as was rumored? I'll take this was a grain of salt.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How many people will cast a vote for President this year? on: August 07, 2016, 05:10:55 pm
I can't see it approaching the 2012 or 2008 levels merely because the candidates are much less likable than Romney/McCain or Obama.

13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Gary Johnson crack 5% of the PV? on: August 06, 2016, 01:26:28 pm
Too soon to tell. If he somehow makes it into the debates then yet. I could also see his support cratering and him getting less than 2% if he doesn't raise money or make the debates.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win Suffolk County, NY? on: August 05, 2016, 10:10:03 pm
Clinton. I don't see how Trump out performs Romney or Bush in the NYC area.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win Nassau County, NY? on: August 05, 2016, 03:46:36 pm
If Romney and Bush couldn't win it, I highly doubt Trump will.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What about South Carolina? on: August 05, 2016, 03:46:00 pm
I don't think Trump loses here, but he's bleeding support in my area at least. I could see Hillary coming within low single digits of winning.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why did Scott Walker do so poorly in the primaries? on: August 05, 2016, 11:36:10 am
He's boring and not handsome. He offered nothing someone else didn't offer better than he could do
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would GOP primaries have looked like if the Khan feud happened before Feb.? on: August 05, 2016, 11:35:30 am
No difference. The "base" was determined to commit political suicide this election.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict what the first term of a Hillary Clinton presidency would be like on: August 05, 2016, 09:08:44 am
Either Clinton or Trump will likely be 1 term presidents. We're very likely to go into a recession at some point (expansions don't last forever), and the next president will take the blame for it.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who does Gen. Colin Powell (Ret.) endorse? on: August 03, 2016, 07:14:36 pm
Clinton or no one at all. All of the Bush people seem to be lining up behind Hillary.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What are the chances Trump has a meltdown on live television during the debates? on: August 03, 2016, 07:12:48 pm
I don't see it happening honestly. Trump seemed to do OK during the GOP debates, and it isn't like Hillary is a master debater, likable, charismatic or anything like that. Trump will do his usual act but I don't see any bombshells happening, although he could have a few major gaffes on foreign policy.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Donald Trump finished? on: August 03, 2016, 07:10:53 pm
How many times have we thought Trump was finished during this election cycle? I am never going to say he's done again until he actually loses to Hillary.
23  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: SB 2016-011: Pay Workers a Fair Wage Act (Debating) on: August 02, 2016, 09:20:13 pm
Remember the time I raised the minimum wage to $12 an hour or something? Good times. Cheesy
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who is more trustworthy? on: July 29, 2016, 12:03:56 pm
Neither
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Vermont-VPR: Clinton +22 on: July 28, 2016, 05:34:28 pm
Wasn't she under 40 in the last Vermont poll too? Seems to be a pattern
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