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December 07, 2016, 07:10:15 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread** on: November 08, 2016, 05:44:20 pm
Has there been any information on college educated whites yet?

Trump +1 I believe, down from Romney +14 in 2012, although Trump improved by 10 on Romney's margin with the uneducated whites
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread** on: November 08, 2016, 05:43:09 pm
8% would be double what Romney/McCain received from African Americans - not terrible actually.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Clinton win a second term? on: November 08, 2016, 04:50:31 pm
Depends. We're likely going to enter a recession during her term, and if that happens, she will be a 1 term president. I expect whoever wins tonight will only last 1 term.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Drudge leaked exits on: November 08, 2016, 04:48:36 pm
DRUDGE has a good track record? jfc this board.

drudge posted wrong "leaked" exit polls 4 years ago


Many posters in this thread are not very bright.

In all fairness, those weren't THAT far off aside from Florida, which polls had all wrong.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: turnout reports, voting problems, and last minute dirty tricks on: November 08, 2016, 04:39:49 pm
I though McMullin was on the ballot in SC?

He may have been, I just didn't notice when I went to vote. We didn't have an option for write ins either for President that I Saw.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Drudge leaked exits on: November 08, 2016, 04:38:02 pm
I don't see any official thing from Drudge claiming this is an actual exit poll they obtained.

They do this every election from what I remember. They usually aren't far off, so I'm not going to call these fake, but it could be lucky guesses.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: turnout reports, voting problems, and last minute dirty tricks on: November 08, 2016, 04:26:57 pm
Lindsey Graham voted for Evan McMuffin.

How? He wasn't on the ballot when I voted
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Drudge leaked exits on: November 08, 2016, 04:25:38 pm
Who knows. In the past they really haven't been that far off except in 2004 when it showed Kerry winning.

If they are remotely accurate then we may have a long night.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Slate/Votecastr real time election projections on: November 08, 2016, 02:15:33 pm
I've learned to put very little stock in these kinds of predictors. I certainly believe the Democrats have the early vote advantage, but they usually do.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: turnout reports, voting problems, and last minute dirty tricks on: November 08, 2016, 02:14:07 pm
Huge line when I voted at 7am in Charleston County. No idea what it means, but I live in a pretty white precinct with younger people who are mostly college grads.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Final Mellman Group national poll: Clinton +4 on: November 08, 2016, 02:12:57 pm
Seems like every poll sans LA Times/IDBB have these exact numbers.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How confident are you in Tuesday's result? on: November 07, 2016, 12:36:16 pm
75% for me. I think Clinton wins, but this election has been insane, so if the shy Trump voter theory does exist, he will shock the world again.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NM - Clinton +2 on: November 07, 2016, 12:31:45 pm
The polling out of NV and NM make no sense to me whatsoever. Both states I felt would be strong HRC states, but they'd been consistently closer than expected.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: chance Trump will peel off PA? on: November 07, 2016, 12:15:35 pm
Maybe 15-20%. I think she wins there by 4-6% but it just depends on the polling accuracy. There seems to be a lot of junk floating around this cycle.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary cancels "big" plan for election night on: November 07, 2016, 12:14:15 pm
While I don't think her election is a sure thing like most here, I would still be surprised if Trump pulled off the upset. Of  course, I have been surprised by Trump  this entire campaign, so I am not counting anything out.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: If Trump does Better than McCain or Romney... on: November 04, 2016, 02:29:12 pm
Probably any other Republican would wipe Clinton out, especially Kasich, Bush or Rubio. But of course the movement Trump created will claim he's a stronger candidate if he comes closer than Romney or McCain.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Morning Consult: Clinton with 51.5% of two party vote, Trump with 47% on: November 03, 2016, 03:02:52 pm
Honestly, Trump at 47% is higher than I expected.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New Fox Clinton Foundation story on: November 03, 2016, 08:46:09 am
So the Praetorian GuardFBI are actively trying to get Trump elected President?

Obama needs to fire every single agent and dissolve the FBI. They can tell each other how patriotic they were while they rot in the detention center the GOP wouldn't let him close. Not that he'll ever do it. I hope that, if Trump wins, he turns Obama's library into a prefab outhouse and locks his spineless, feckless predecessor inside. It's the least he deserves.

(The blame for all this isn't 100% on the GOP - from ignoring torture and spying to going easy on seditious militants to coordinating a crackdown on Occupy, to letting the NSA and FBI go rogue, he's helped bring this about.)

Why don't we just install Hillary as Queen and revert back to a monarchy while we're at it?

What a horrific statement you just made. This is why I have such trouble pulling the level for Hillary (or Trump)  this election. She's no better than he is.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MI: New Strategic National Clinton +1 on: November 02, 2016, 11:51:03 am
The polls are just all over the place. I guess Tuesday will be suspenseful if nothing else.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The FBI is not even hiding their hackery. on: November 02, 2016, 11:47:47 am
At this point, they need to indict her otherwise sure, it looks bad.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 02, 2016, 10:23:21 am
I really don't think black turnout will be anywhere near the levels of 2008/2012 with Obama not on the ballot. An old white woman just isn't going to get them out like Obama.

I expect Hispanics will be higher given the things Trump has said about them.
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Election Night - Drink of Choice? on: November 02, 2016, 10:21:55 am
Scotch
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who are your relatives and friends voting for? on: November 02, 2016, 10:20:56 am
Pretty much split along gender lines. My mom and sister say they either will vote Clinton or not vote. My grandfather and father are voting Trump. I am voting Hillary, although not happily.

My friends are mostly for Hillary or not voting. In 2012, most of my friends and family backed Romney.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: James O'Keefe: "We have smoking gun evidence and it is incredibly damning." on: November 02, 2016, 10:18:03 am
This guy has been blowing smoke for months now and has yet to deliver any smoking gun - just a lot of smoke and mirrors. I don't believe the hype. The worst that can happen at this point to Hillary is an indictment before next Tuesday, which won't happen.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does anyone care about Donna Brazile? on: November 02, 2016, 10:17:01 am
Everyone should care about her actions. It's pretty frightening if anyone is okay with what she did.
I mean... if she did the same for sanders...

That doesn't make it any better. I don't care if it were her or Sanders or Bush or Rubio. That's beside the point.
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