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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why was it predicted that Nixon would win Hawaii in 1960 on: Today at 02:40:50 pm
Nixon fulfilled his pledge to campaign in all 50 states. He infamously campaigned in Alaska during the final weekend before the election so as not to break the pledge, against the advice of his campaign staff.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 1992: States where Perot cost Bush the electoral votes on: Today at 02:34:22 pm
I ran a regression analysis a few months ago and there was actually a negative correlation between Perot's vote percentage and the Democratic "trend" (in Atlas terminology) in a state, while if Perot was taking votes disproportionately from Bush, you'd expect a positive correlation. Someone else did mention they had seen studies that there was a positive correlation at the county level, however.

So I would say the above, combined with exit polls showing that Perot's voters would've split evenly, makes it impossible to say with any certainty that Perot affected the outcome one way or the other.

A more persuasive argument might be that Perot tended to attack Bush more than Clinton during the campaign and thus drove up Bush's negatives higher than they would have been if he hadn't run, though I'd be interested in seeing data on that as opposed to just anecdotes.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What does this forum think of the assertion that "debates don't matter"? on: September 26, 2016, 02:33:48 pm
They matter, but it's rare for one candidate to win a decisive victory, especially when considering all of the debates as opposed to just one individual debate.

So they usually don't end up having much net effect since the result is usually near to a tie in the eyes of the public.

This year has a good chance of being different in that regard, but we shall see.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 1992: States where Perot cost Bush the electoral votes on: September 26, 2016, 02:28:21 pm
There's no evidence that Perot's voters would have disproportionately backed Bush over Clinton.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Was the election of 1968 more modern than the election of 1988? on: September 25, 2016, 10:25:47 pm
1968 was pretty class-based, too. In fact in some ways it was the most class-based election in terms of voting patterns outside the South. Humphrey won more of the Northeast than Dukakis simply because he did better nationally.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump goes on Russia-state-owned RT to slam the US media on: September 09, 2016, 03:14:15 pm
Yeah imagine if Walter Mondale or Michael Dukakis had done this in the 1984 or 1988. And if they had boasted about having the endorsement of the Soviet Premier, and said the Premier was a stronger leader than Ronald Reagan. How badly would they have lost?

Well, in Mondale's case there's a fairly low limit on how much worse he could have lost. Wink

Heh, committing treason would've made it worse.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump goes on Russia-state-owned RT to slam the US media on: September 09, 2016, 03:11:03 pm
Yeah imagine if Walter Mondale or Michael Dukakis had done this in 1984 or 1988. And if they had boasted about having the endorsement of the Soviet Premier, and said the Premier was a stronger leader than Ronald Reagan. How badly would they have lost?
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump might get booted off ballot in Minnesota on: September 09, 2016, 02:27:07 pm
Would be the first time a major party nominee wasn't on the ballot in a state since Lyndon Johnson in Alabama in 1964.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New Latino Voice: Trump at all time low of 11% on: September 09, 2016, 12:37:21 pm
Keep in mind that Latinos are proportionately much more numerous in non-swing states than in swing states, so Clinton might be running up the score with them in California and New York which does her no good. It increases the likelihood that she could win the popular vote but lose in the Electoral College.

However, this number makes it very unlikely Trump can win Florida or Nevada, and it's very hard to see a path to 270 Electoral Votes for him without either state.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States on: September 06, 2016, 03:39:09 pm
I show Norton as having voted for Obama in 2012 while Maidstone and Morgan were the only towns won by Romney. Norton has the most Republican PVI though, considering both 2008 and 2012.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: "The Big Three" swing state scenarios on: September 05, 2016, 03:00:35 pm
You forgot this one:



Trump 270
Clinton 268

That would also work for Trump to win without PA, but fivethirtyeight considers NH and NV both closer than WI.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / "The Big Three" swing state scenarios on: September 05, 2016, 02:00:28 pm
I think we can all agree the most important swing states this year, due to their combination of size and closeness to the national vote, are Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Any candidate who can win at least two out of these three will have a good chance of getting elected, and a sweep of all three makes victory almost assured, as I will lay out below. I'll outline the most plausible victory scenarios for the candidate who loses a majority of them which will help make clear their importance. I'm using the current fivethirtyeight.com polls-plus model ranking of states to help determine the rank order of the rest of the states on the D-R scale.

One scenario I won't consider, due to its implausibility, is that Trump wins Pennsylvania while Clinton wins Ohio. Pennsylvania has been more Democratic than Ohio for decades, and there is no reason to think that won't be true again this year. The states are demographically similar enough that the odds of them moving in opposite directions over the next two months are remote.

If Clinton sweeps the Big Three, she'll be extremely likely to win. If we assume that Michigan will also continue to be more Democratic than Ohio and thus that Clinton will also take Michigan (an even safer assumption than Pennsylvania IMO), Trump would have to pull off this nearly impossible map (he'd probably win at least Maine's second district and possibly the state itself as well but both are unnecessary):



If Trump swept the Big Three, on the other hand, he'd be very likely to win, though Clinton's chances are a little better of surviving such a sweep than Trump's would be. She'd have to create this unlikely, albeit not entirely implausible map:



Where it starts to get interesting is if the Big Three split with two for one candidate and one for the other.

If Clinton won Pennsylvania and Florida, but Trump won Ohio, Clinton would still have a pretty solid advantage. Trump would need the following map, which while not inconceivable is pretty unlikely (Nevada would probably go for Trump also but would be unnecessary):



If Trump took Florida and Ohio, while Clinton won Pennsylvania, the election would probably be very close, and could go either way. Clinton would need this map:



Clinton winning Pennsylvania and Ohio would still leave her firmly in the driver's seat, even if Trump won Florida, although Trump has a better chance than if he won Ohio instead of Florida. He'd need this (he'd probably win Maine's second district, but wouldn't need it):



Finally, Trump's uniqueness as a candidate makes possible that he wins Pennsylvania and Ohio but that Clinton wins Florida. Clinton would have to be considered a narrow favorite if this happens (which helps show how important Florida is--the biggest of the Big Three). She could win with this map:

13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC News: 67% of voters had a negative reaction to Trump's immigration speech on: September 05, 2016, 11:46:59 am
Immigration reform is a non-starter in Congress because House Republicans fear a Tea Party challenge in a primary far more than a Democrat in the general election. The Tea Party has successfully held the country hostage on an issue in which a majority of Americans favor reform.

Remember, the Senate passed reform easily in 2013. The 2013 immigration reform bill would've passed the House if it had come up for a vote, but Boehner refused knowing he would lose his Speakership if he dared to allow it.

And this, ladies and gentleman, is why normal people hate politics.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Most exciting election on: September 01, 2016, 11:28:24 am
I'd have to say 2000. Nobody had a clue what was going to happen and the electoral map was being colored in real time instead of just pro forma. 1960 was a close second.

2000 was nuts.  As of 2 AM EST that night, Florida, Oregon, Iowa, Wisconsin, were still uncalled. 

wasnt new mexico also uncalled

Actually New Mexico was called, but probably shouldn't have been, given how tight the margin was.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 Model Megathread on: August 31, 2016, 02:10:30 pm
I've noticed sometimes the forecast updates without a new poll being inputted; I would assume this is a fundamentals and/or timeline adjustment (fewer days until the election thus less uncertainty).
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: ME-GOV: LePage Considers Resigning on: August 30, 2016, 02:57:51 pm
It still boggles my mind how many awful Republican governors got reelected in 2014.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States on: August 30, 2016, 11:53:44 am
Wow, what an incredible project! Thanks for all of your hard work.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How could Gerald Ford have won 1976? on: August 29, 2016, 03:22:42 pm
Eh, I'm skeptical of that. VP nominees only help by a few points in their home states, and there's no evidence that they help outside of them in bordering states. Carter was the type of Democrat (culturally less liberal) that rural parts of Wisconsin have historically liked. Remember that Humphrey was himself from Minnesota, so I doubt Mondale at the bottom of the ticket would persuade voters unimpressed with Humphrey.

I think the Mondale pick did help Carter shore up his liberal base to some degree, and helped reassure voters concerned with his lack of experience.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How could Gerald Ford have won 1976? on: August 29, 2016, 11:10:30 am
I wonder if the debate gaffe made the ultimate difference.  It came down to 6,000 votes in Ohio and 15,000 in Wisconsin.  That was the Presidency.  Both Rust Belt states with huge Eastern European populations, and Ford was actually polling well with those voters before the debate gaffe.  The debate gaffe did not only hurt him with Eastern European voters.  It reinforced the general opinion of him among all voters that he was a bumbling flake in over his head.  I think that had he not made the gaffe in the debate, he still would have lost the popular vote and may have wound up with a Florida 2000 style crisis. 

Seems plausible. Carter had just enough blue-collar appeal to push him over the top in these two critical states in Ford's home region.

He also could've won by just flipping New York; that would've been more of a reach for him but not out of the question as it was within five points. Perhaps if he had kept Rockefeller as his VP instead of Dole. Dole was a poor running mate who got slaughtered in the debate with Mondale ("Democrat wars") and did little to help Ford with any key constituency. He was supposed to appeal to the base, but he was pretty lackluster as a politician.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: West Virginia shift from 1996-2000 on: August 28, 2016, 12:39:39 am
Gore's performance at the time was poor for a Democrat in coal country. Of course, today it would be considered wonderful.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which SEC college counties will Clinton win? on: August 26, 2016, 02:26:48 pm
I say 9/14 with the exceptions being Lafayette, Brazos, Lee, Washington and Knox

8/14, add Tuscaloosa to the list of exceptions. Romney won it by about 17.5% in 2012.

You should do a series of this with the other major conferences.

I would imagine the Big 12 is the only other major conference besides the SEC where Trump would have much chance of winning any.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Should Hillary renominate Garland on: August 24, 2016, 10:58:56 pm
If Hillary won, why wouldn't the Senate just confirm Garland before she takes office?

They would have just spend a whole year saying the president shouldn't get to choose the Supreme Court member in his final year in office.


Exactly. The Democrats could filibuster and throw their words back in their face.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Should Hillary renominate Garland on: August 24, 2016, 10:57:39 pm
If Republicans keep the Senate, yes. Otherwise she should choose someone younger and more progressive.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's "realistic" pickups on: August 24, 2016, 05:25:47 pm
Iowa and Ohio.

The Hispanic vote will sink Trump in Florida and Nevada, even if the race tightens.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump Campaign pushing ahead with its plan to win NY on: August 24, 2016, 01:43:58 pm
If he really invests there, he could as well in his home state of New York as Romney did in his home state of Massachusetts....maybe.
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