Moderators are not above reproach; such posts are reportable and infractable regardless of their source.

Perot's platform wasn't conservative. He was pro-choice on abortion, favored larger tax increases than Clinton did to help balance the budget, had opposed the Persian Gulf War and was strongly anti-free trade. The emphasis of his campaign message was much more on generic "populism", nationalism and opposition to elites, Washington and "business as usual" as opposed to any ideological fealty. This is why his appeal was mainly to segments of both the country and electorate that were generally distrusting of authority and skeptical of institutions.

This topic has been moved to 2016 U.S. Presidential Election.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=170510.0

At least Snowguy admits (indirectly) that his belief is irrational. That's step one.

This topic has been moved to Congressional Elections.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=167351.0

Here's an interesting one--Gore vs. Clinton '96:



Clinton (red) wins 320-218.

When seeing this map you can't not ask yourself : "what's the matter with Kansas ?"

Tipper Gore most likely.  Kansas seems like the kind of place that would have approved of her fight against explicit lyrics.

Even more likely: the fact that Clinton's opponent was a Kansan.

South Carolina

D: Allendale, Clarendon, Fairfield, Hampton, Jasper, Lee, McCormick, Marion, Marlboro, Orangeburg, Williamsburg (since 1972)
R: Aiken (since 1952)

South Dakota

D: Shannon (since 1952)
R: Lawrence (since 1916)

Tennessee

D: Haywood (since 1972)
R: Cocke, Hancock, Wayne (Never D in Atlas history which dates to 1912)

Texas

D: Brooks, Duval, Jim Hogg, Maverick, Starr, Webb, Zapata (never R in consecutive Atlas history which dates to 1940, though Webb and Zapata voted R in 1912)
R: Kendall (Never D in Atlas history which dates to 1940, though it voted I in 1912)

Utah

D: None. Grand, Salt Lake and Summit were the last to vote D in 2008.
R: Garfield, Iron, Kane, San Juan, Sanpete, Sevier (since at least 1936 for which no data exists, Garfield, Iron, Kane, and San Juan otherwise have the longest streak having voted R since 1916)

Vermont

D: Addison, Chittenden, Franklin, Grand Isle, Windham (since 1984)
R: None. The last to vote R was Essex in 2004.

Virginia

D: Charles City (since 1956)
R: Floyd (never D in Atlas history which dates to 1932, though it voted I in 1912)

Washington

D: Grays Harbor (since 1928)
R: Adams (since 1936)

West Virginia

D: None. Boone, Braxton, Jefferson, Marion, McDowell, Monongalia and Webster were the last to vote D in 2008.
R: Morgan (never in Atlas history which dates to 1912)

Wisconsin

D: Douglas (since 1928)
R: Walworth (since 1912).

Wyoming

D: Teton (since 2000)
R: Crook, Johnson (since 1932)

Nebraska

D: Thurston (since 2000)
R: Keya Paha (since 1916)

Nevada

D: Clark (since 1988)
R: Douglas (since 1936)

New Hampshire

D: Cheshire, Grafton, Merrimack, Strafford (since 1988)
R: Belknap, Carroll, Rockingham (since 2004)

New Jersey

D: Essex (since 1972)
R: Hunterdon, Morris, Sussex, Warren (since 1964)

New Mexico

D: Rio Arriba, San Miguel (since 1956)
R: Lincoln (since 1936)

New York

D: Bronx, Kings, New York (since 1924). Outside of NYC it would be Albany and Erie, both since 1972.
R: Allegany, Genesee, Greene, Hamilton, Livingston, Orleans, Putnam, Steuben, Tioga, Wayne, Wyoming (since 1964)

North Carolina

D: Northampton (Never R in Atlas history which dates to 1924)
R: Avery, Mitchell, Wilkes, Yadkin (Never D in Atlas history dating to 1924, though Avery, Mitchell, and Wilkes voted I in 1912)

North Dakota

D: Rolette (since 1952)
R: Golden Valley, Grant, Kidder, Logan, McIntosh, Mercer, Sheridan (since 1936)

Ohio

D: Cuyahoga, Mahoning, Trumbull (since 1972)
R: Delaware (since 1916)

Oklahoma

D: None (Cherokee, Choctaw, Haskell, Hughes, Latimer, McIntosh, Muskogee, Okmulgee, Ottawa all voted D in 2000, the last time any county voted D)
R: Major (since 1932)

Oregon

D: Columbia (since 1928)
R: Josephine (since 1936)

Pennsylvania

D: Philadelphia (since 1932)
R: Snyder, Union, Wayne (since 1912 when all voted I, Snyder and Union haven't voted D in Atlas history which dates to 1888)

Rhode Island

D: Providence (since 1972)
R: None (Bristol, Kent, Newport, and Washington voted R in 1984, the last time any county voted R)

Maine

D: Androscoggin, Aroostook, Cumberland, Franklin, Hancock, Kennebec, Knox, Oxford, Sagadohoc, York (since 1988)
R: Piscataquis (since 1996)

Maryland

D: Baltimore City (since 1956), Prince George's (since 1972)
R: Garrett (since 1912 when it voted I, hasn't voted D in Atlas history which dates to 1900)

Massachusetts

D: Suffolk (since 1924)
R: None. The last time any counties went R were Barnstable, Plymouth, and Worcester in 1988.

Michigan

D: Wayne (since 1928)
R: Missaukee, Ottawa, Sanilac (since 1912 when they all voted I, and none have gone D in Atlas history which dates to 1884)

Minnesota

D: Ramsey (since 1924)
R: Carver, Otter Tail (since 1932)

Mississippi

D: Claiborne, Holmes, Jefferson (since 1964)
R: Choctaw, Clarke, Forrest, Franklin, Harrison, Jackson, Jones, Lamar, Lauderdale, Lincoln, Lowndes, Newton, Rankin, Scott, Simpson, Smith (since 1968 when all voted I, though Clarke was a tie in 1980). Forrest has the longest streak of not voting D, having not done so since 1944.

Missouri

D: St. Louis City (since 1924), Jackson (since 1972)
R: Gasconade, Putnam, Taney (never D in Atlas history which dates to 1888)

Montana

D: Deer Lodge (since 1924)
R: Beaverhead, Fallon, Powder River, Stillwater, Sweet Grass (since 1936)

Idaho

D: Blaine (since 1988)
R: Clark (since 1932)

Illinois

D: Alexander, Cook, St. Clair (since 1972)
R: Edwards, Lee, Ogle (I in 1912, never D in the history of the Atlas which goes back to 1892)

Indiana

D: Lake (since 1972)
R: Hamilton, Hendricks (since 1912)

Iowa

D: Dubuque (since 1956)
R: Cass, Page (since 1932)

Kansas

D: Wyandotte (since 1972)
R: Doniphan (never D in Atlas history which goes back to 1888)

Kentucky

D: Elliott (Never R in Atlas history which dates to 1940)
R: Adair, Allen, Butler, Casey, Clay, Clinton, Cumberland, Edmonson, Grayson, Jackson, Laurel, Leslie, Lewis, McCreary, Monroe, Owsley, Pulaski, Rockcastle, Russell (never D in continuous Atlas history which goes back to 1940, although Jackson and McCreary voted I in 1912 and Adair, Allen, Casey, Edmonson, Grayson, Laurel and Pulaski voted D in 1912)

Louisiana

D: East Carroll, Iberville, Madison, Orleans, St. Helena, St. James (since 1972)
R: Bossier, Jefferson, Lafayette, La Salle, Ouachita, St. Tammany, Union (since 1968 when all voted I. Bossier has the longest streak of not voting D, having last went D in 1944)

Updated for 2012:

Alabama

D: Greene, Macon, Sumter (Greene and Sumter voted R in 1964, Macon voted I in 1964, R in 1956)
R: Baldwin, Houston, Lee, Mobile, Shelby (All voted I in 1968, Baldwin, Mobile, and Shelby last voted D in 1952 which is the longest streak of not voting D, though all three voted D/I in 1960, so Houston can make an argument, having last voted D in 1956, but R in 1960).

Arizona

D: Apache (since 1980)
R: Maricopa, Yavapai (since 1948)

Arkansas

D: Chicot, Desha, Jefferson, Lee, Phillips, Woodruff (since 1972)
R: Benton, Sebastian (since 1948)

California

D: Yolo (since 1952)
R: Orange (since 1936)

Colorado

D: Costilla (since 1924)
R: Elbert (since 1932)

Connecticut

D: Hartford (since 1984)
R: Litchfield (since 2008)

Delaware

D: New Castle (since 1988)
R: Sussex (since 1996)

Florida

D: Gadsden (since 1972)
R: Indian River, Lake, Lee, Manatee, Martin, Sarasota (since 1944)

Georgia

D: Baker, Calhoun, Clay, Dooly, Fulton, Hancock, Macon, Quitman, Stewart, Talbot, Taliaferro, Twiggs, Warren (since 1972)
R: Catoosa, Cobb, Columbia, Dade, Fannin, Fayette, Gwinnett, Lee, Lowndes, Walker (since 1976)

Hawaii

D: Hawaii, Honolulu, Kauai, Maui (since 1984)
R: None (Hawaii, Honolulu, Kauai, and Maui all voted R in 1984, the last time any county voted R)

In addition, there's really no solid evidence that this new "John" is the original as opposed to an imitator.

The only argument for keeping him is nostalgia for the past. By any objective measure, he deserved a ban. If not for the multiple sock accounts, I could have given him a pass, but it was just a bridge too far.

I believe that you clicked Washington instead of Wisconsin for Bush in 1992 by mistake.

A few key points--

The economy of 2012 is not the economy of 1980, not by a mile, both in absolute terms and relative terms. Nate Silver effectively debunked the fallacy that they are comparable: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/30/economically-obama-is-no-jimmy-carter/

President Obama was perceived as much more successful than President Carter in foreign policy. Bin Laden killing vs. Iranian hostage crisis, etc.

Governor Romney is no Ronald Reagan, either charismatically or in terms of policy positions (far more conservative).

Yes, the electorate has changed, but given the above three points, the results of these two elections should not be surprising.

If you make Torie the mod of the Individual Politics board, I'd be more than happy to delete my personal messages, Dave.

Thanks Dave. Only one thing would make it better: appointing Torie as its mod.

I'm cool with being made a 2016 board mod, but it would have been nice if Dave would have asked us.  AndrewCT and/or Bacon King may or may not want to renew their gig from the 2012 board for 2016.  In any case, you asked Dave several months ago about having Torie replace (the now absent) Lunar as mod of Individual Politics, so it would be great if he could do that, or else make Torie mod of the 2016 board in place of one of the rest of us, and move the displaced person down to Individual Politics.

Or better yet, merge Individual Politics and Political Debate into one board, since it doesn't seem like there's a clear reason to have both.

True, having him on any board would be fine with me.

In 2004 between the convention and the first debate, there were 42 national election polls, and George Bush led by an average of 6.1%, breaking the 50% barrier in 18 out of 41.

In a sample of 100 news stories by the national media, 68% of the time the race was referred to as "a toss up" or similar description.

In 2012, in the 86 national polls between the convention and the first debate, Obama lead by an average of 3.2%, and in a sample of 100 national news stories, 79 referred to Obama as leading.

It is easy to check this for yourself, go back to the 2004 poll archive on RealClearPolitics (or any other site) and verify for yourself.

The media reports what they want to see....  go ahead... check this out for yourself.... I dare you....

And guess what? It was a tossup that came down to one or two states.  The national polls are useless. We vote by the electoral college if you remember and we all knew it was coming down to OH, FL, PA, etc, the same states we're battling over eight years later.

My point was not on the actual election, but on how the media reported it...

If Bush is leading by 6.1% is a "tossup", then how is a 3.2% lead "Obama leading".....?

It is very similar to the 2000 exit polls where states won by Bush and/or Gore by essentially identical margins would be called for Gore in minutes, while states won by Bush would often take hours, even though the actual margins and data were very similar....

Seriously, do think Florida getting called for Gore before the polls even closed in the Panhandle was an accident?

No, it wasn't an accident at all. It was based on accepted procedures at the time for calling states. If you are saying that it was wrong to call a state before all of the polls have closed in that state, I would agree with you, and the networks changed the procedure which up to that time only required 75% of the polls to be closed in a state in order for it to be called.

The data in the states called for Bush and Gore was not "very similar". Does that mean that exit polls are flawed as a method of calling states? I wouldn't necessarily disagree with that, though the overall track record of such calls is excellent, the multiple mistakes in Florida with it being called for both candidates before it should have been notwithstanding. I would point out that the mistaken call for Bush was far more damaging to Gore in the subsequent recount since it added to the public perception of Bush as the "rightful" winner of the election, given how many people went to bed on election night believing Bush to be the winner.

I would be interested in seeing a link to the study you mentioned. Did they take into consideration the timing of each of the stories throughout the time period listed, and the timing of the polls conducted during that time period? Simply looking at an average isn't necessarily a valid way to study the issue. Also, why only a "sample" of 100 stories? Why not study all stories? It's not as though it would be that difficult, using Google, to study more than a random sample of 100 stories (giving the study the benefit of the doubt and assuming the stories and their sources were chosen randomly).

In addition, "leading" and "tossup" are not necessarily mutually exclusive terms. I would be interested in seeing if the study controlled for this factor.

The media reports what they want to see....  go ahead... check this out for yourself.... I dare you....

This coming for a guy with a graph that shows unemployment over 9%.

Lol.

It means I haven't updated the graph since early 2011.....

I will be sure to update it to show how the current unemployment is below 5.6%, just as predicted by Mr. Obama....

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2012/oct/11/paul-ryan/ryan-obama-promised-unemployment-would-not-exceed-/

Thanks Dave. Only one thing would make it better: appointing Torie as its mod.

In the past, Dave has periodically gone through and deleted old threads to free up room on the server. With the election fast approaching, it wouldn't surprise me if he's gone on another deleting spree, both to increase performance in anticipation of heavy usage November 6 and to make room for the new maps to come.

Phil has received a one week ban for several vicious and unwarranted personal attacks in this thread which were deleted.

Seems like a good time to combine it with Political Debate and let Beet handle them both.

Which, of course, would also require Dave's intervention.

Given that Dave hasn't responded to my requests, this is likely a moot point. I will point out regarding point three that Steve never asked to be a mod as far as I know.

I have the ability to mod any board, so please send me such requests directly.

I have emailed Dave several times regarding changes to the mod team (specifically adding Torie), and said requests have unfortunately not been acknowledged with any response or action.

I missed my chance to get Emsworth removed as a mod when I asked Dave to remove him, he responded to me that he needed clarification as to which boards he was a mod of, I responded back specifying which board, and then no further response was received nor action taken.