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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's Brexit response on: Today at 11:47:22 am
Comedian Simon Brodkin crashed Donald Trump's Scottish golf course opening and tried to present him with swastika golf balls.

Watch the video and see the swastika golf balls here, via CNN :
http://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2016/06/24/donald-trump-comedian-simon-brodkin-orig-dlewis-vstan.cnn

You just cant make this stuff up.
LOL.
Love it.

Surprised Trump didn't accept the balls and then claim that he has no idea what a swastika symbolizes and that the media is being very unfair to him by portraying this as being in any way, shape or form an endorsement of Nazism. And making sure to mention that lots of people, smart people, the best people, are saying they agree with him.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The Upshot's new demographic tool on: June 13, 2016, 10:59:27 am
I would take the small sample size results with a huge grain of salt. I'd be shocked if hispanic men in the South actually vote Republican, for example.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democrats, would you have voted for a Democrat version of Trump? on: June 13, 2016, 10:39:46 am
We had our chance with Al Sharpton in 2004 and soundly rejected him.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Process / Re: Single Day Primary vs Current System on: June 09, 2016, 02:30:46 pm
I would prefer single day primaries but later in the election season; the first Tuesday of May would work well (before summer vacation for schoolchildren and allowing a full six months for the general election campaign). The primary season wouldn't be any shorter; in fact usually the nominations are decided before then so it would lengthen it more often than not. This would also ensure that every vote counted equally, as opposed to the current system where Iowa and New Hampshire in particular have inordinate influence. Larger states wouldn't necessarily dominate campaign attention or appearances, any more than larger cities dominate attention or appearances in statewide races.

All open primaries to maximize participation.

All proportional allocation of delegates. If no candidate receives a majority, a contested convention is the result. Delegates bound to their candidate on the first ballot but all released on a second ballot or later. This would ensure that the nominee would be broadly acceptable to the party and a candidate couldn't win the nomination with only plurality support of the voters.

If I had my druthers, I would design the general election in a similar fashion. All electoral votes allocated proportionally, and if no one achieves a majority, revote until one candidate gets to a majority.

This system would result in the best balance IMO between giving all of the people an equal voice but also having a check and balance against candidates winning with a plurality of committed supporters against a divided field (in either the primaries or the general).
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / New Mexico, New Jersey, North Dakota, and South Dakota primary bellwethers on: June 07, 2016, 11:41:08 pm
New Mexico--

Dems since 1992--

All EXCEPT

Bernalillo
Catron
Los Alamos
Sandoval
Santa Fe
Taos

GOP--

All

New Jersey--

Dems since 1992--

All EXCEPT

Essex
Hunterdon
Mercer
Somerset
Union

GOP--

All

North Dakota--

Since 1992, neither party has any county-level data available except Dems in 1992 and GOP in 1996. The former was a beauty contest primary (no delegates awarded) won by Ross Perot, in which Lyndon Larouche and someone named Charles Woods won counties. For obvious reasons, I'm not going to consider this as having any meaning whatsoever for "bellwether" importance. The latter was a clean sweep.

South Dakota--

Dems since 1992--

All EXCEPT

Beadle
Bennett
Brookings
Buffalo
Campbell
Clay
Codington
Corson
Custer
Day
Deuel
Dewey
Grant
Hamlin
Hand   
Hanson
Jerauld
Kingsbury
Lawrence
Lyman
Melette
Miner
Roberts
Shannon (now known as Oglala Lakota)
Todd
Ziebach

GOP--

All EXCEPT

Campbell
Corson
Deuel
Douglas

6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / California & Montana primary bellwether counties on: June 07, 2016, 08:32:23 pm
Finally concluding the series begun in January.

California

Dems since 1992--

Amador
Calaveras
Colusa
Contra Costa
Del Norte
Fresno
Glenn
Imperial
Inyo
Kern
Kings
Lake
Los Angeles
Madera
Mariposa
Merced
Modoc
Monterey
Napa   
Orange
Placer
Riverside
San Benito
San Bernardino
San Diego
San Joaquin
Santa Clara
Shasta
Solano
Stanislaus   
Sutter
Tehama
Tulare
Ventura
Yuba   

GOP since 1992--

Alpine
Amador
Butte
Calaveras
Colusa
Contra Costa
Del Norte
El Dorado
Glenn
Humboldt
Imperial
Inyo
Kern
Kings
Lassen
Los Angeles
Madera
Mariposa
Merced
Modoc
Monterey
Orange
Placer
Plumas
Riverside
Sacramento
San Benito
San Bernardino
San Joaquin
San Luis Obispo
Santa Barbara
Siskiyou
Solano
Stanislaus   
Sutter
Tehama
Tulare
Tuolumne   
Ventura
Yuba

Montana--

Dems since 1992--

Beaverhead   
Big Horn   
Blaine   
Broadwater   
Carbon   
Carter   
Cascade   
Chouteau   
Fallon   
Fergus   
Flathead   
Gallatin   
Glacier   
Golden Valley   
Granite   
Hill   
Jefferson   
Judith Basin   
Lake   
Lewis and Clark   
Lincoln   
McCone   
Madison   
Meagher   
Mineral
Missoula   
Park   
Pondera   
Powder River   
Powell
Ravalli
Roosevelt
Rosebud
Sanders
Stillwater
Sweet Grass
Teton
Treasure
Yellowstone


GOP since 1992--

Beaverhead   
Broadwater   
Carbon   
Cascade   
Chouteau   
Daniels   
Fallon   
Flathead   
Gallatin   
Garfield   
Golden Valley   
Jefferson   
Lewis and Clark   
Liberty   
Lincoln   
Mineral   
Musselshell   
Park   
Pondera   
Powder River
Powell
Prairie
Ravalli
Silver Bow
Stillwater
Teton
Toole
Wheatland
Yellowstone   

7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jiggle the vote, according to 538.com on: June 06, 2016, 11:49:16 pm
I posted this as a prediction, in part because I was surprised at the effect of the 538 calculator on some variables.

I assume about a 6% drop in overall turnout driven by the unpopularity of the major candidates and anticipated negative campaign. That gives a turnout equal to 1996.

College whites 70%-54%R (from 77%-56%R); negative campaigns and disaffected college drop the turnout by 7% as it shifts 2% Dem.

Noncollege whites 53%-70%R (from 57%-62%); the Trump factor plays big here, and the turnout only drops 4% compared to the 6% average.

Blacks 56%-86%D (from 66%-93%D); the lack of Obama on the ticket returns black turnout to previous levels, slightly better than noncollege whites, and though still solid they drop to less than 90% Dem.

Latinos 44%-74%D (from 48%-71%); a drop in turnout equal to noncollege whites and 3% shift to the Dems.

Asians/Other 45%-70%D (from 49%-67%D);  a shift matching that of the Latinos.

Predicted vote Clinton 48.5%, Trump 49.8%. EV Clinton 232 Trump 306.



No way black and latino turnout drops that much, or that Trump does that well with college educated whites. Latino turnout will almost certainly surge if both percentage turnout and D percentage, and while black turnout would normally drop with Obama off the ballot, I'm not so sure it will....some reminders of Trump's KKK endorsements will keep the black vote engaged, if nothing else.

The college educated white vote is harder to predict, but Trump's continued doubling down on racism isn't doing him any favors.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Could John McCain have won in 2008 if the DNC in Denver was brokered? on: June 06, 2016, 02:51:52 pm
Only if the split had been very acrimonious and Clinton had refused to endorse Obama, then yes, it's possible. Or perhaps more likely, if Clinton had somehow emerged as the nominee from a brokered convention and Obama and his supporters felt cheated and thus a large portion of the Dem base (think African-Americans in particular) sits out the general election.

The odds are good that the rift would have healed before November, though.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Major Candidate Criteria on: June 04, 2016, 10:47:37 am
For the general election criteria, I would suggest all of the same standards except 5% of the national popular vote being the threshold instead of 20%.

Though if you want someone like Ralph Nader to qualify, you could go as low as 2%.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How Did Ronald Reagan do so well with young Voters on: June 04, 2016, 10:40:54 am
Generations are cyclical in their voting habits and tend to vote based on how the political winds were blowing when they were coming of age. People in their 40s today (who grew up with Reagan) tend to still be fairly conservative. The "Greatest Generation" who grew up with FDR remained pretty Democratic for most of their lives. Just to cite two examples.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Primary bellwether states on: June 02, 2016, 10:46:53 am
The Deep South being the bellwether shows the recent power of the African-American vote in Democratic primaries.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Sacrificial lambs that ended up winning the election on: June 01, 2016, 10:37:19 am
At the Presidential level, Bill Clinton in 1992 (recall how many candidates passed on taking along the "unbeatable" President Bush that year).
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Do third party candidates do worse in swing states? on: June 01, 2016, 10:33:09 am
Not that I know of, but it wouldn't be too hard to run a regression analysis on past third party candidates. It would be interesting to find out.

My guess would be no, as most voters are not that strategic/tactical. Practically speaking, the odds of a state being decided by one vote are always extremely small, so it doesn't really make sense to vote differently because you live in a swing state as opposed to a non competitive one (leaving aside the question of where the line between the two is even drawn).
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 taking Johnson/Weld seriously on: May 25, 2016, 05:47:36 pm
Quote
But that was the 90s, back before most of us in the interior of the country had ever even seen an avocado let alone mashed it up on toast.

Wut?

This was mostly a joke, but it's true that your local supermarket probably didn't sell avocados if you lived in the Midwest in the 90's.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 taking Johnson/Weld seriously on: May 25, 2016, 11:40:12 am
Enten is good at tweeting but not so great at predicting elections.

Clare Malone wrote this article (though Enten did contribute research).
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie Sanders Requests Kentucky Recanvassing on: May 24, 2016, 02:28:03 pm
If the primary were winner take all, this would be sensible, but he'll only get one additional delegate if he wins.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nate Silver eats crow on: May 18, 2016, 06:04:15 pm
He deserves credit for at least acknowledging his mistakes and making an effort to improve, as opposed to getting defensive and more stubborn as so many do in this situation.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538: Pennsylvania could be the tipping-point state as early as this year on: May 18, 2016, 02:30:25 pm
I agree that Pennsylvania is more winnable for Trump than Virginia or Colorado (for the reasons the article states), but I am skeptical that Florida is more winnable for Trump than Pennsylvania.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: So... in which states did Perot hurt Clinton in 1992? on: May 18, 2016, 12:13:16 pm
Also many "independents" weren't closet Republicans in 1992 like they are now. That's more a phenomenon that started with the tea party.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: So... in which states did Perot hurt Clinton in 1992? on: May 18, 2016, 12:08:26 pm
A few other things to keep in mind regarding Perot:

He was out of the race for several months and Clinton maintained a strong lead in the polls throughout this entire time. When he reentered the race, the first polls after his reentry didn't show Clinton's lead at all diminished. This, along with the exit polls also showing Perot's supporters would have broken evenly between the two supports the idea that Perot didn't hurt (or help) Clinton or Bush more than the other.

I also did a logistic regression analysis in a seperate thread showing that the Democratic "trend" at the statewide level in Atlas speak in 1992 wasn't correlated at all with Perot's percentage of the vote, which is what we would expect to see if Perot took votes disproportionately from Bush.

Though someone mentioned having looked further into the county results and did see a correlation there. Also, of the counties Perot won in 1992, all but three went on to vote for Dole in 1996 and all voted for Bush in 1988. So, that supports the idea that he possibly did take more votes from Bush overall.

Ideologically Perot was between Bush and Clinton, though he focused on specific issues such as trade and the deficit with which he disagreed with both candidates. His economic plan was pretty radical and would have included much larger tax increases than Clinton proposed, as well as sharp spending cuts. He probably did cost Bush some votes among those who voted for Buchanan in the primaries, but also likely had appeal to Jerry Brown's and Paul Tsongas's supporters who were disaffected with Clinton also.

Voter turnout was much higher in 1992 than in either 1988 or 1996, suggesting many Perot voters wouldn't have voted at all if he wasn't in the race.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Oregon primary bellwether counties on: May 17, 2016, 10:25:39 pm
Dems since 1992--

Baker
Clackamas
Clatsop
Curry
Deschutes   
Gilliam
Grant
Hood River   
Jackson
Jefferson
Josephine
Lane
Lincoln
Marion
Multnomah
Polk
Union
Wallowa
Wasco
Washington
Yamhill   

GOP--

Every county
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Serious question about the Oregon primary on: May 17, 2016, 02:50:44 pm
Brown's sexuality is very rarely mentioned in the media, so I highly doubt this will be much on the mind of voters.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Was choosing Philadelphia for the Democratic National Convention a masterstroke? on: May 16, 2016, 05:00:09 pm
There is almost no correlation historically between the "trend" in a state and a party holding its convention there. In fact for the Republicans, it is a slightly negative correlation. I could make a joke about how seeing Republicans up close and personal tends to repel voters, but I'll pass.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/republicans-choice-to-hold-2016-convention-in-cleveland-probably-wont-help-them-in-ohio/
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: West Virginia primary bellwether counties on: May 14, 2016, 11:31:38 pm
Bellwether's pick the winners. Bernie ain't winnin'

True, though if that's our criteria 2008 already invalidated it. For these threads I have been going by bellwethers for the state winner, not the national winner. That would be an interesting project as well, though.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Process / Re: What happens when no candidate gets to 270 and the House has changed parties? on: May 12, 2016, 10:48:37 am
The new House votes, but keep in mind that each state delegation gets one vote.

So in 2017, even if Democrats win a narrow House majority, there is a good chance that the GOP will still control a majority of state delegations.
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