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1  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / MOVED: Petition to demod Inks on: July 04, 2014, 01:58:46 am
This topic has been moved to Forum Community.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=194576.0
2  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: opebo on: January 12, 2014, 04:05:44 am
A poster's entire record is taken into consideration in weighing a decision to ban, and judgements made as to whether the posts detrimental to the Forum and this site's purpose outweigh those which contribute. This is by necessity a subjective decision, and thus one others are free to quarrel with, but it is one based upon the guidelines which Dave, the site's owner, has made clear through numerous avenues and at a great number of times through the Forum's past.

Opebo would have been gone 8-9 years ago if the decision had been mine to make at the time.

When I was made mod-admin, he had a substantial enough posting history that I felt uncomfortable taking any action without near if not total unanimity from the mod team. That threshold was finally reached, and thus the ban went forth. I appreciate Dave stepping in to implement it himself, given the controversy generated by the entire escapade, and despite the fact that said intervention didn't ultimately change the end result.

Jmfcst was a similar case who finally, after years of approaching it, finally passed the threshold of doing more harm than good by his presence.
3  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Moderator Shuffles on: November 06, 2013, 05:04:27 pm
I'm favorably impressed at the alacrity with which my request was responded to. Thanks Dave!

As an aside, I also reminded him to finally remove Emsworth as a mod, five years after his last post.
4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Senate votes on Supreme Court nominations on: October 23, 2013, 12:20:32 pm
Reagan:

Kennedy, Scalia, and O'Connor were confirmed unanimously.

Bork:



Rehnquist:

5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Senate votes on Supreme Court nominations on: October 22, 2013, 01:23:13 pm
Bush 41:

Thomas:



Souter:

6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Senate votes on Supreme Court nominations on: October 22, 2013, 01:41:17 am
Clinton:

Breyer:



Ginsburg:

7  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Senate votes on Supreme Court nominations on: October 19, 2013, 12:52:34 pm
I fixed an error in Sotomayor's map.

Now onto Bush 43:

Alito:



Roberts:

8  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Senate votes on Supreme Court nominations on: October 17, 2013, 06:52:55 pm
For nominees of Democratic Presidents, red indicates both senators voted yes, blue indicates both voted no. For Republican Presidents, blue is yes, red is no. Grey indicates one Senator voted yes, one no. If one senator didn't vote, the state is shaded the way the remaining Senator voted.

First, President Obama's nominees:

Kagan:



Sotomayor:



9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Counties with strong swings in opposite directions in consecutive elections on: October 02, 2013, 06:47:24 pm
The fact that Ford was a U of Michigan alumnus explains why he carried the county of his alma mater.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Counties with strong swings in opposite directions in consecutive elections on: October 01, 2013, 11:55:38 am
Tyler, WV is likely a typo also, given the huge decline in the total number of votes cast in 1996 and subsequent surge in turnout in 2000.
11  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: We need to have a talk about Gus on: April 25, 2013, 10:03:40 pm
Moderators are not above reproach; such posts are reportable and infractable regardless of their source.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Perot in the South on: April 14, 2013, 01:10:21 pm
Perot's platform wasn't conservative. He was pro-choice on abortion, favored larger tax increases than Clinton did to help balance the budget, had opposed the Persian Gulf War and was strongly anti-free trade. The emphasis of his campaign message was much more on generic "populism", nationalism and opposition to elites, Washington and "business as usual" as opposed to any ideological fealty. This is why his appeal was mainly to segments of both the country and electorate that were generally distrusting of authority and skeptical of institutions.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / MOVED: Christie 2016 Performance in NJ on: April 04, 2013, 01:06:41 am
This topic has been moved to 2016 U.S. Presidential Election.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=170510.0
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Recent Heat Unlike Anything Seen in 11,000 Years on: March 10, 2013, 09:57:48 pm
At least Snowguy admits (indirectly) that his belief is irrational. That's step one.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / MOVED: 2014 U.S. Senate race projections on: February 03, 2013, 04:36:44 pm
This topic has been moved to Congressional Elections.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=167351.0
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Candidates from different years vs. each other on: December 12, 2012, 11:33:10 pm
Here's an interesting one--Gore vs. Clinton '96:



Clinton (red) wins 320-218.

When seeing this map you can't not ask yourself : "what's the matter with Kansas ?" Wink

Tipper Gore most likely.  Kansas seems like the kind of place that would have approved of her fight against explicit lyrics.

Even more likely: the fact that Clinton's opponent was a Kansan.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Counties with the longest streak of voting for one party for President on: December 08, 2012, 02:11:53 am
South Carolina

D: Allendale, Clarendon, Fairfield, Hampton, Jasper, Lee, McCormick, Marion, Marlboro, Orangeburg, Williamsburg (since 1972)
R: Aiken (since 1952)

South Dakota

D: Shannon (since 1952)
R: Lawrence (since 1916)

Tennessee

D: Haywood (since 1972)
R: Cocke, Hancock, Wayne (Never D in Atlas history which dates to 1912)

Texas

D: Brooks, Duval, Jim Hogg, Maverick, Starr, Webb, Zapata (never R in consecutive Atlas history which dates to 1940, though Webb and Zapata voted R in 1912)
R: Kendall (Never D in Atlas history which dates to 1940, though it voted I in 1912)

Utah

D: None. Grand, Salt Lake and Summit were the last to vote D in 2008.
R: Garfield, Iron, Kane, San Juan, Sanpete, Sevier (since at least 1936 for which no data exists, Garfield, Iron, Kane, and San Juan otherwise have the longest streak having voted R since 1916)

Vermont

D: Addison, Chittenden, Franklin, Grand Isle, Windham (since 1984)
R: None. The last to vote R was Essex in 2004.

Virginia

D: Charles City (since 1956)
R: Floyd (never D in Atlas history which dates to 1932, though it voted I in 1912)

Washington

D: Grays Harbor (since 1928)
R: Adams (since 1936)

West Virginia

D: None. Boone, Braxton, Jefferson, Marion, McDowell, Monongalia and Webster were the last to vote D in 2008.
R: Morgan (never in Atlas history which dates to 1912)

Wisconsin

D: Douglas (since 1928)
R: Walworth (since 1912).

Wyoming

D: Teton (since 2000)
R: Crook, Johnson (since 1932)
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Counties with the longest streak of voting for one party for President on: December 08, 2012, 01:51:39 am
Nebraska

D: Thurston (since 2000)
R: Keya Paha (since 1916)

Nevada

D: Clark (since 1988)
R: Douglas (since 1936)

New Hampshire

D: Cheshire, Grafton, Merrimack, Strafford (since 1988)
R: Belknap, Carroll, Rockingham (since 2004)

New Jersey

D: Essex (since 1972)
R: Hunterdon, Morris, Sussex, Warren (since 1964)

New Mexico

D: Rio Arriba, San Miguel (since 1956)
R: Lincoln (since 1936)

New York

D: Bronx, Kings, New York (since 1924). Outside of NYC it would be Albany and Erie, both since 1972.
R: Allegany, Genesee, Greene, Hamilton, Livingston, Orleans, Putnam, Steuben, Tioga, Wayne, Wyoming (since 1964)

North Carolina

D: Northampton (Never R in Atlas history which dates to 1924)
R: Avery, Mitchell, Wilkes, Yadkin (Never D in Atlas history dating to 1924, though Avery, Mitchell, and Wilkes voted I in 1912)

North Dakota

D: Rolette (since 1952)
R: Golden Valley, Grant, Kidder, Logan, McIntosh, Mercer, Sheridan (since 1936)

Ohio

D: Cuyahoga, Mahoning, Trumbull (since 1972)
R: Delaware (since 1916)

Oklahoma

D: None (Cherokee, Choctaw, Haskell, Hughes, Latimer, McIntosh, Muskogee, Okmulgee, Ottawa all voted D in 2000, the last time any county voted D)
R: Major (since 1932)

Oregon

D: Columbia (since 1928)
R: Josephine (since 1936)

Pennsylvania

D: Philadelphia (since 1932)
R: Snyder, Union, Wayne (since 1912 when all voted I, Snyder and Union haven't voted D in Atlas history which dates to 1888)

Rhode Island

D: Providence (since 1972)
R: None (Bristol, Kent, Newport, and Washington voted R in 1984, the last time any county voted R)
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Counties with the longest streak of voting for one party for President on: December 08, 2012, 01:37:34 am
Maine

D: Androscoggin, Aroostook, Cumberland, Franklin, Hancock, Kennebec, Knox, Oxford, Sagadohoc, York (since 1988)
R: Piscataquis (since 1996)

Maryland

D: Baltimore City (since 1956), Prince George's (since 1972)
R: Garrett (since 1912 when it voted I, hasn't voted D in Atlas history which dates to 1900)

Massachusetts

D: Suffolk (since 1924)
R: None. The last time any counties went R were Barnstable, Plymouth, and Worcester in 1988.

Michigan

D: Wayne (since 1928)
R: Missaukee, Ottawa, Sanilac (since 1912 when they all voted I, and none have gone D in Atlas history which dates to 1884)

Minnesota

D: Ramsey (since 1924)
R: Carver, Otter Tail (since 1932)

Mississippi

D: Claiborne, Holmes, Jefferson (since 1964)
R: Choctaw, Clarke, Forrest, Franklin, Harrison, Jackson, Jones, Lamar, Lauderdale, Lincoln, Lowndes, Newton, Rankin, Scott, Simpson, Smith (since 1968 when all voted I, though Clarke was a tie in 1980). Forrest has the longest streak of not voting D, having not done so since 1944.

Missouri

D: St. Louis City (since 1924), Jackson (since 1972)
R: Gasconade, Putnam, Taney (never D in Atlas history which dates to 1888)

Montana

D: Deer Lodge (since 1924)
R: Beaverhead, Fallon, Powder River, Stillwater, Sweet Grass (since 1936)
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Counties with the longest streak of voting for one party for President on: December 08, 2012, 01:32:49 am
Idaho

D: Blaine (since 1988)
R: Clark (since 1932)

Illinois

D: Alexander, Cook, St. Clair (since 1972)
R: Edwards, Lee, Ogle (I in 1912, never D in the history of the Atlas which goes back to 1892)

Indiana

D: Lake (since 1972)
R: Hamilton, Hendricks (since 1912)

Iowa

D: Dubuque (since 1956)
R: Cass, Page (since 1932)

Kansas

D: Wyandotte (since 1972)
R: Doniphan (never D in Atlas history which goes back to 1888)

Kentucky

D: Elliott (Never R in Atlas history which dates to 1940)
R: Adair, Allen, Butler, Casey, Clay, Clinton, Cumberland, Edmonson, Grayson, Jackson, Laurel, Leslie, Lewis, McCreary, Monroe, Owsley, Pulaski, Rockcastle, Russell (never D in continuous Atlas history which goes back to 1940, although Jackson and McCreary voted I in 1912 and Adair, Allen, Casey, Edmonson, Grayson, Laurel and Pulaski voted D in 1912)

Louisiana

D: East Carroll, Iberville, Madison, Orleans, St. Helena, St. James (since 1972)
R: Bossier, Jefferson, Lafayette, La Salle, Ouachita, St. Tammany, Union (since 1968 when all voted I. Bossier has the longest streak of not voting D, having last went D in 1944)
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Counties with the longest streak of voting for one party for President on: December 08, 2012, 01:23:11 am
Updated for 2012:

Alabama

D: Greene, Macon, Sumter (Greene and Sumter voted R in 1964, Macon voted I in 1964, R in 1956)
R: Baldwin, Houston, Lee, Mobile, Shelby (All voted I in 1968, Baldwin, Mobile, and Shelby last voted D in 1952 which is the longest streak of not voting D, though all three voted D/I in 1960, so Houston can make an argument, having last voted D in 1956, but R in 1960).

Arizona

D: Apache (since 1980)
R: Maricopa, Yavapai (since 1948)

Arkansas

D: Chicot, Desha, Jefferson, Lee, Phillips, Woodruff (since 1972)
R: Benton, Sebastian (since 1948)

California

D: Yolo (since 1952)
R: Orange (since 1936)

Colorado

D: Costilla (since 1924)
R: Elbert (since 1932)

Connecticut

D: Hartford (since 1984)
R: Litchfield (since 2008)

Delaware

D: New Castle (since 1988)
R: Sussex (since 1996)

Florida

D: Gadsden (since 1972)
R: Indian River, Lake, Lee, Manatee, Martin, Sarasota (since 1944)

Georgia

D: Baker, Calhoun, Clay, Dooly, Fulton, Hancock, Macon, Quitman, Stewart, Talbot, Taliaferro, Twiggs, Warren (since 1972)
R: Catoosa, Cobb, Columbia, Dade, Fannin, Fayette, Gwinnett, Lee, Lowndes, Walker (since 1976)

Hawaii

D: Hawaii, Honolulu, Kauai, Maui (since 1984)
R: None (Hawaii, Honolulu, Kauai, and Maui all voted R in 1984, the last time any county voted R)
22  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Petition to unban John Engle on: December 04, 2012, 10:24:50 am
In addition, there's really no solid evidence that this new "John" is the original as opposed to an imitator.
23  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Petition to unban John Engle on: December 02, 2012, 02:02:24 pm
The only argument for keeping him is nostalgia for the past. By any objective measure, he deserved a ban. If not for the multiple sock accounts, I could have given him a pass, but it was just a bridge too far.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Reversing close states on: November 18, 2012, 08:03:28 pm
I believe that you clicked Washington instead of Wisconsin for Bush in 1992 by mistake.
25  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Reaganfan's Reaction on: November 18, 2012, 03:51:38 pm
A few key points--

The economy of 2012 is not the economy of 1980, not by a mile, both in absolute terms and relative terms. Nate Silver effectively debunked the fallacy that they are comparable: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/30/economically-obama-is-no-jimmy-carter/

President Obama was perceived as much more successful than President Carter in foreign policy. Bin Laden killing vs. Iranian hostage crisis, etc.

Governor Romney is no Ronald Reagan, either charismatically or in terms of policy positions (far more conservative).

Yes, the electorate has changed, but given the above three points, the results of these two elections should not be surprising.
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