Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 24, 2015, 04:34:59 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 507
1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: West Virginia 2008 vs 2012 on: May 07, 2015, 12:05:05 pm
Regarding allegations of racism in West Virginia....keep in mind that even in 2012 Obama got a higher percentage of the white vote there than almost anywhere else in the South. If he had done as well with whites in North Carolina as he did in West Virginia, he would've won North Carolina.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: What would 1992 look like if Perot never dropped out? on: May 05, 2015, 01:17:06 pm
The problem for Perot was that his support was pretty evenly distributed throughout the country, and the states he performed best in were small.

If he had gained 5% nationally and it came equally from Clinton and Bush, he still would've only won Maine's 2nd district (the only electoral vote he came within 5% of winning). He still comes up short in Maine unless his increased support comes very disproportionally from Clinton there (Maine was the only state he came within 10% of winning).

If he had done 10% better nationally and his support comes equally from Clinton and Bush, he still only wins Maine (state and both districts), Idaho (by one one hundredth of one percent!), Alaska, Montana, Wyoming, Kansas, and Nevada. He would've fallen short in Utah unless his increased support came fairly disproportionally from Bush. Even getting all those plus Utah (those 8 states are the only ones that he received more than 25% of the vote in reality) still only gets him up to 32 electoral votes.
3  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Banzilla #2 - The Ban Boy Returns - Petition to ban Solarstorm on: April 28, 2015, 10:51:12 am
Bullying, insulting, taunting, etc. of other posters will not be tolerated on this site, either in the form of posts or personal messages. Anyone who engages in such will be infracted and potentially banned.

Solarstorm, for your own good, please take a respite and seek help. There are many cruel people in this world, but (especially on the internet) they only have as much power over you as you allow them to have.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Snyder set to announce soon. on: April 25, 2015, 12:21:57 pm
A kinder, gentler Scott Walker, which makes him more dangerous.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How did Perot get so much support? on: April 24, 2015, 03:43:55 pm
It was a great shame that Stockdale became an object of such ridicule considering he was one of the greatest war heroes to run for Prez/VP (as was George McGovern). It is true that he had no business being in the debate, however.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton to fulfill the Atlas Forum's dreams with 50 state strategy. on: April 23, 2015, 12:42:01 pm
Money has diminishing returns when concentrated to large degrees. The swing states are already over-saturated and getting slightly outspent on tv ads (if that's what it takes....reality is Hillary almost certainly will have enough money to do both) there is worth establishing a small presence in an otherwise overlooked state.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Could the election of 1944 have been delayed? on: April 22, 2015, 10:44:06 am
Coincidentally, this is the primary reason I support the electoral college.  Imagine an earthquake in L.A. or a Category 5 hurricane in Houston the day before the election.

Contingencies could be accounted for on a localized and case by case basis.

For example, the NYC primary for mayor and other offices was originally scheduled for 9/11/01 and then delayed (I assume those who had already cast ballots in the hour prior to the attacks had to revote?).
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did Carter do so well in the plains? on: April 22, 2015, 10:38:44 am
Wasn't Ford originally from Nebraska? That would explain why he did so much better there.

He was born there, yes.
9  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: 2012 White Obama Lovers Map by County Project - WV, MD & DC added on: April 21, 2015, 06:27:16 pm
So if Obama had only done as well with whites in North Carolina as he did in West Virginia, he would've probably won North Carolina.
10  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Moderator Announcement on The Update on: April 15, 2015, 03:47:34 pm
I fully concur with and support this policy. Please feel free to contact Dave directly via the "Email" link at the top of this page if you have any complaints/concerns, as only through his intervention is there any possibility of this policy being modified/changed in the future. He has made it clear to the mod team that he was displeased with the recent invasion of posters here onto a different site, and that was a major impetus in this decision.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Nixon vs. Humphrey vs. Wallace Today on: April 13, 2015, 02:46:36 pm
The problem with these sorts of hypotheticals is that the issues and the range of acceptable positions change, so the only fair way to do it IMO is to compensate for that. For example, Wallace's views on race may have been shared by 30-40% of Americans in 1968 but obviously would be unthinkable for any mainstream candidate today (remember that he himself renounced them, and won the black vote in 1982 when he ran for Governor), so give him a comparable position by today's standards. Nixon's positions on economics would basically make him a mainstream Democrat today, but made him a moderate Republican then, so perhaps someone like Chris Christie is a more apt comparison.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Could a President serve non-consecutive today? on: April 13, 2015, 02:43:00 pm
The most plausible scenario I see is a major health issue that causes an otherwise popular President to not run for reelection, but which is resolved by the time of the next election four years later such as a heart attack, cancer etc.

Returning from a defeat to win again would be less likely but it's not unthinkable at all if the President lost in a close and controversial election. For example, if Bush in 2004 or Obama in 2012 had lost in a 2000-like fashion (winning the popular vote nationally, losing the critical state by a few hundred votes with doubts as to the result's legitimacy, etc), they certainly would have had a strong case for a rematch four years later.
13  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Why No Alaska Maps? on: April 13, 2015, 01:14:42 pm
Alaska doesn't have counties, only boroughs and census areas which change frequently, so making the maps is much more of a pain, for one. The census areas have no governmental reality on the ground so it is probably not easy to calculate results for each of them, and Dave has always been a stickler (rightly so, in my opinion) for not presenting data/maps that aren't as authoritative as possible (hence why so many states in so many years lack Congressional District maps/data).
14  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: How can anyone be sure their religion is correct? on: February 08, 2015, 12:51:32 pm
Al's point is that faith and logic/reason operate within completely different mindsets, and are by definition incompatible. Faith is defined as belief without proof. The scientific method requires evidence to corroborate any hypothesis.

I would argue that faith is not illogical to hold, even if choice of faith in one particular doctrine/idea/being etc. above others quite often is.
15  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / MOVED: Petition to demod Inks on: July 04, 2014, 01:58:46 am
This topic has been moved to Forum Community.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=194576.0
16  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: opebo on: January 12, 2014, 04:05:44 am
A poster's entire record is taken into consideration in weighing a decision to ban, and judgements made as to whether the posts detrimental to the Forum and this site's purpose outweigh those which contribute. This is by necessity a subjective decision, and thus one others are free to quarrel with, but it is one based upon the guidelines which Dave, the site's owner, has made clear through numerous avenues and at a great number of times through the Forum's past.

Opebo would have been gone 8-9 years ago if the decision had been mine to make at the time.

When I was made mod-admin, he had a substantial enough posting history that I felt uncomfortable taking any action without near if not total unanimity from the mod team. That threshold was finally reached, and thus the ban went forth. I appreciate Dave stepping in to implement it himself, given the controversy generated by the entire escapade, and despite the fact that said intervention didn't ultimately change the end result.

Jmfcst was a similar case who finally, after years of approaching it, finally passed the threshold of doing more harm than good by his presence.
17  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Moderator Shuffles on: November 06, 2013, 05:04:27 pm
I'm favorably impressed at the alacrity with which my request was responded to. Thanks Dave!

As an aside, I also reminded him to finally remove Emsworth as a mod, five years after his last post.
18  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Senate votes on Supreme Court nominations on: October 23, 2013, 12:20:32 pm
Reagan:

Kennedy, Scalia, and O'Connor were confirmed unanimously.

Bork:



Rehnquist:

19  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Senate votes on Supreme Court nominations on: October 22, 2013, 01:23:13 pm
Bush 41:

Thomas:



Souter:

20  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Senate votes on Supreme Court nominations on: October 22, 2013, 01:41:17 am
Clinton:

Breyer:



Ginsburg:

21  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Senate votes on Supreme Court nominations on: October 19, 2013, 12:52:34 pm
I fixed an error in Sotomayor's map.

Now onto Bush 43:

Alito:



Roberts:

22  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Senate votes on Supreme Court nominations on: October 17, 2013, 06:52:55 pm
For nominees of Democratic Presidents, red indicates both senators voted yes, blue indicates both voted no. For Republican Presidents, blue is yes, red is no. Grey indicates one Senator voted yes, one no. If one senator didn't vote, the state is shaded the way the remaining Senator voted.

First, President Obama's nominees:

Kagan:



Sotomayor:



23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Counties with strong swings in opposite directions in consecutive elections on: October 02, 2013, 06:47:24 pm
The fact that Ford was a U of Michigan alumnus explains why he carried the county of his alma mater.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Counties with strong swings in opposite directions in consecutive elections on: October 01, 2013, 11:55:38 am
Tyler, WV is likely a typo also, given the huge decline in the total number of votes cast in 1996 and subsequent surge in turnout in 2000.
25  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: We need to have a talk about Gus on: April 25, 2013, 10:03:40 pm
Moderators are not above reproach; such posts are reportable and infractable regardless of their source.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 507


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines