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December 04, 2016, 09:29:05 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Oregon 2016 GE Pres Results on: December 02, 2016, 04:46:39 pm
Thank you for an extremely detailed and informative analysis. I feel as though I know these towns and counties through and through now.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Did Michael Dukakis have a shot of winning in 1988? on: December 02, 2016, 03:08:42 pm
The Democratic party had a chance of winning, but Michael Dukakis did not.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 'White working-class' vote in 1964 on: December 02, 2016, 03:04:52 pm
Considering that the vast majority of Americans were "white working class" in 1964, I doubt it differed that much from the national total.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will Trump be a better President than Obama? on: December 02, 2016, 03:01:28 pm
If history is any guide, Trump will trash the country so bad it will take the entire next Democratic administration to fix it so it can be handed over to the next incompetent Republican.

Hubert Humphrey once observed that since Democrats did better (at that time, at least) among those of lower economic means while Republicans did better among those with higher incomes, that when Republicans are in office, the economy does poorly, and thus since Americans are overall poorer they then vote in Democrats. Democrats improve the economy, but since Americans are then wealthier, they elect Republicans.

And so the cycle continues.

Also reminds me of Harry Truman's comment that if you want to live like a Republican, you need to vote Democratic.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: West Virginia Poll: Manchin up double digits against possible 2018 challengers on: November 30, 2016, 06:49:25 pm
I don't know what point you are trying to make. Coal is still an important energy source for us, but we will have to move on at some point. Economies shift, jobs shift, etc

Also, there is no such thing as clean coal. I call it slightly less dirty coal.

My point is that Hillary did not ever make the clear intention to provide a new resource to the working class. She completely took the side of the environmental lobby and threw West Virginians overboard.

You are right, economies do shift but you can't just tell people that they will be unemployed and expect them to be happy about it. Hillary Clinton literally said this.

I see no reason to move away from coal but I am always an advocate for diversifying energy resources.

Actually Clinton had an extensive program to invest in job training and to assist displaced coal workers and those in other professions affected by these changes in the economy. Unfortunately the media finds policy details boring so this was not well reported on.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Top 5 positive outcomes expected from a Trump presidency on: November 28, 2016, 12:08:35 pm
1. The Democrats retaking the House of Representatives.
2. The Democrats retaking a majority of the nation's governorships.
3. The Democrats retaking a majority of state legislatures and redrawing the lines more equitably after the 2020 census.
4. The Democrats retaking the Senate.
5. The election of a liberal President in 2020.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why did the Access Hollywood tape have no effect? on: November 28, 2016, 11:43:55 am
It certainly did have an effect, but unfortunately Americans have very short attention spans nowadays.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Counties with the longest streak of voting for one party for President on: November 28, 2016, 11:37:20 am
Tennessee

D: Haywood (since 1972)
R: Cocke, Hancock, Wayne (Never D in Atlas history which dates to 1912)

According to the maps on the Wikipedia pages for each election, Wayne has been R since 1876.  Cocke and Hancock have been R since 1868.  Hancock did vote for Breckenridge in 1860 but the last time Cocke voted Democrat was for Andrew Jackson in 1832, and even that appears to be by a close margin.

Thanks Don. I've stuck to using official Atlas data for this thread (though I jumped the gun a bit this year and used the AP for county results Dave doesn't have posted yet).
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump claims "millions of people" voted illegally. on: November 28, 2016, 11:33:25 am
So since Trump believes there was massive fraud in the election results, I assume he fully supports efforts to recount the votes to ensure this fraud is properly exposed and those responsible for it are brought to justice.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: BREAKING: Wisconsin to recount presidential votes on: November 25, 2016, 06:26:03 pm
True, but if there was hacking or manipulation of the results in any way, that needs to be exposed, even if it doesn't change the outcome.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Counties with the longest streak of voting for one party for President on: November 25, 2016, 02:24:33 pm
South Carolina

D: Allendale, Clarendon, Fairfield, Hampton, Jasper, Lee, Marion, Marlboro, Orangeburg, Williamsburg (since 1972)
R: Aiken (since 1952)

South Dakota

D: Oglala Lakota (since 1952)
R: Lawrence (since 1916)

Tennessee

D: Haywood (since 1972)
R: Cocke, Hancock, Wayne (Never D in Atlas history which dates to 1912)

Texas

D: Brooks, Duval, Jim Hogg, Maverick, Starr, Webb, Zapata (never R in consecutive Atlas history which dates to 1940, though Webb and Zapata voted R in 1912)
R: Kendall (Never D in Atlas history which dates to 1940, though it voted I in 1912)

Utah

D: Salt Lake, Summit (since 2012)
R: Kane (since 1916)

Vermont

D: Addison, Chittenden, Franklin, Grand Isle, Windham (since 1984)
R: Essex (since 2012)

Virginia

D: Charles City (since 1956)
R: Floyd (never D in Atlas history which dates to 1932, though it voted I in 1912)

Washington

D: Jefferson (since 1980)
R: Adams (since 1936)

West Virginia

D: None. Boone, Braxton, Jefferson, Marion, McDowell, Monongalia and Webster were the last to vote D in 2008.
R: Morgan (never in Atlas history which dates to 1912)

Wisconsin

D: Douglas (since 1928)
R: Walworth (since 1912).

Wyoming

D: Teton (since 2000)
R: Crook, Johnson (since 1932)
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Counties with the longest streak of voting for one party for President on: November 25, 2016, 02:10:37 pm
Nebraska

D: Douglas, Lancaster (since 2012)
R: Keya Paha (since 1916)

Nevada

D: Clark (since 1988)
R: Douglas (since 1936)

New Hampshire

D: Cheshire, Grafton, Merrimack, Strafford (since 1988)
R: Belknap, Carroll, Rockingham (since 2008)

New Jersey

D: Essex (since 1972)
R: Hunterdon, Morris, Sussex, Warren (since 1964)

New Mexico

D: Rio Arriba, San Miguel (since 1956)
R: Lincoln (since 1936)

New York

D: Bronx, Kings, New York (since 1924). Outside of NYC it would be Albany and Erie, both since 1972.
R: Allegany, Genesee, Greene, Hamilton, Livingston, Orleans, Putnam, Steuben, Tioga, Wayne, Wyoming (since 1964)

North Carolina

D: Northampton (Never R in Atlas history which dates to 1924)
R: Avery, Mitchell, Wilkes, Yadkin (Never D in Atlas history dating to 1924, though Avery, Mitchell, and Wilkes voted I in 1912)

North Dakota

D: Rolette (since 1952)
R: Golden Valley, Grant, Kidder, Logan, McIntosh, Mercer, Sheridan (since 1936)

Ohio

D: Cuyahoga, Mahoning (since 1972)
R: Delaware (since 1916)

Oklahoma

D: None (Cherokee, Choctaw, Haskell, Hughes, Latimer, McIntosh, Muskogee, Okmulgee, Ottawa all voted D in 2000, the last time any county voted D)
R: Major (since 1932)

Oregon

D: Clatsop (since 1956)
R: Josephine (since 1936)

Pennsylvania

D: Philadelphia (since 1932)
R: Snyder, Union, Wayne (since 1912 when all voted I, Snyder and Union haven't voted D in Atlas history which dates to 1888)

Rhode Island

D: Providence (since 1972)
R: Kent (since 2012)
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Counties with the longest streak of voting for one party for President on: November 25, 2016, 01:58:57 pm
Maine

D: Cumberland, Hancock, Knox, Sagadohoc, York (since 1988)
R: Piscataquis (since 1996)

Maryland

D: Baltimore City (since 1956). Among counties the longest streak is Prince George's (since 1972)
R: Garrett (since 1912 when it voted I, hasn't voted D in Atlas history which dates to 1900)

Massachusetts

D: Suffolk (since 1924)
R: None. The last time any counties went R were Barnstable, Plymouth, and Worcester in 1988.

Michigan

D: Wayne (since 1928)
R: Missaukee, Ottawa, Sanilac (since 1912 when they all voted I, and none have gone D in Atlas history which dates to 1884)

Minnesota

D: Ramsey (since 1924)
R: Carver, Otter Tail (since 1932)

Mississippi

D: Claiborne, Holmes, Jefferson (since 1964)
R: Choctaw, Clarke, Forrest, Franklin, Harrison, Jackson, Jones, Lamar, Lauderdale, Lincoln, Lowndes, Newton, Rankin, Scott, Simpson, Smith (since 1968 when all voted I, though Clarke was a tie in 1980). Forrest has the longest streak of not voting D, having not done so since 1944.

Missouri

D: St. Louis City (since 1924). Among counties the longest streak is Jackson (since 1972)
R: Gasconade, Putnam, Taney (never D in Atlas history which dates to 1888)

Montana

D: Deer Lodge (since 1924)
R: Beaverhead, Fallon, Powder River, Stillwater, Sweet Grass (since 1936)
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Counties with the longest streak of voting for one party for President on: November 25, 2016, 01:46:03 pm
Idaho

D: Blaine (since 1988)
R: Clark (since 1932)

Illinois

D: Cook, St. Clair (since 1972)
R: Edwards, Lee, Ogle (I in 1912, never D in the history of the Atlas which goes back to 1892)

Indiana

D: Lake (since 1972)
R: Hamilton, Hendricks (since 1912)

Iowa

D: Johnson (since 1960)
R: Cass, Page (since 1932)

Kansas

D: Wyandotte (since 1972)
R: Doniphan (never D in Atlas history which goes back to 1888)

Kentucky

D: Jefferson (since 1988)
R: Adair, Allen, Butler, Casey, Clay, Clinton, Cumberland, Edmonson, Grayson, Jackson, Laurel, Leslie, Lewis, McCreary, Monroe, Owsley, Pulaski, Rockcastle, Russell (never D in continuous Atlas history which goes back to 1940, although Jackson and McCreary voted I in 1912 and Adair, Allen, Casey, Edmonson, Grayson, Laurel and Pulaski voted D in 1912)

Louisiana

D: East Carroll, Iberville, Madison, Orleans, St. Helena, St. James (since 1972)
R: Bossier, Jefferson, Lafayette, La Salle, Ouachita, St. Tammany, Union (since 1968 when all voted I. Bossier has the longest streak of not voting D, having last went D in 1944)
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Counties with the longest streak of voting for one party for President on: November 25, 2016, 01:34:34 pm
Updated for 2016:

Alabama

D: Greene, Macon, Sumter (Greene and Sumter voted R in 1964, Macon voted I in 1964, R in 1956)
R: Baldwin, Houston, Lee, Mobile, Shelby (All voted I in 1968, Baldwin, Mobile, and Shelby last voted D in 1952 which is the longest streak of not voting D, though all three voted D/I in 1960, so Houston can make an argument, having last voted D in 1956, but R in 1960).

Arizona

D: Apache (since 1980)
R: Maricopa, Yavapai (since 1948)

Arkansas

D: Chicot, Desha, Jefferson, Lee, Phillips (since 1972)
R: Benton, Sebastian (since 1948)

California

D: Yolo (since 1952)
R: Sutter (since 1940)

Colorado

D: Costilla (since 1924)
R: Elbert (since 1932)

Connecticut

D: Hartford (since 1984)
R: Litchfield (since 2008)

Delaware

D: New Castle (since 1988)
R: Sussex (since 1996)

Florida

D: Gadsden (since 1972)
R: Indian River, Lake, Lee, Manatee, Martin, Sarasota (since 1944)

Georgia

D: Calhoun, Clay, Fulton, Hancock, Macon, Stewart, Talbot, Taliaferro, Warren (since 1972)
R: Catoosa, Columbia, Dade, Fannin, Fayette, Lee, Lowndes, Walker (since 1976)

Hawaii

D: Hawaii, Honolulu, Kauai, Maui (since 1984)
R: None (Hawaii, Honolulu, Kauai, and Maui all voted R in 1984, the last time any county voted R)
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did Dole lose KY & TN in 1996? on: November 22, 2016, 05:37:45 pm
It goes to show that voters in states like these care a lot more about cultural affinity than positions on the issues.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Jerry Brown run in 2020 one more time..... on: November 21, 2016, 03:04:36 pm
...No.

1992 was it for him and the national scene.


Harris is the new sharp, wide-eyed, no drama one to watch where they go, even if they don't reach the top.

Along with 1976 when he was the runner-up to Carter nationally in the primaries.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Remaining votes (Update: about 7 million ballots left to count nationwide) on: November 17, 2016, 06:23:29 pm
Just as he did in the primary, Trump will be sure to boast about getting the most votes of any Republican candidate ever.

Clinton got more votes than him in both the primary and in the general. Probably won't mention that in his tweet.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: urban areas and Trump analysis on: November 17, 2016, 06:10:11 pm
African American turnout was almost certainly down. Precinct data will help confirm this once it comes out.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Louisiana Senate runoff on: November 17, 2016, 05:22:32 pm
Any chance this is worth keeping an eye on? Conventional wisdom is that Kennedy will win easily, but Campbell does seem like the type of Democrat who could win here in theory (moderate profile).

What would constitute a good result for Democrats? Keeping it within single digits?
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Professor Lichtmann predicts Presidential Race for 2016 on: November 16, 2016, 07:09:37 pm
The media are saying he called the election correctly, but I thought the Lichtmann model was for predicting the PV winner. 

Right, but he ended up correctly calling Clinton as the popular vote winner since the third party key didn't end up turning against the Democrats after all since Johnson got under 5 percent of the vote.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Hillary chose Brown instead of Kaine for VP, would she have won? on: November 16, 2016, 12:47:28 pm
If she had otherwise run the exact same campaign, then no. VP candidates only provide about a two point boost in their own home states and no discernible boost in neighboring states or throughout their home region.

But for the reasons Beet states, then yes, to the extent that Brown's nomination was part of a broader strategy of focusing on the Midwest and white non-college educated voters.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Gwen Ifill passes away on: November 16, 2016, 11:32:11 am
Who?

I take it you don't watch PBS, and that you also didn't watch the 2004 or 2008 Vice Presidential debates.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did Illinois trend Democratic? on: November 15, 2016, 01:02:28 pm
It is not unusual for incumbent Presidents to have significantly less home-state advantage when running for reelection then when running for first election, and Obama was no exception. It's still unusual that Clinton actually outperformed Obama relative to the national average in Illinois though.

Maybe she had some pseudo home-state advantage due to having been from Illinois originally (sorta like Obama's pseudo home-state advantage in Hawaii).
25  General Discussion / History / Re: Obama's legacy same as Carter's? on: November 14, 2016, 04:37:18 pm
It's far more likely that Trump will prove to be the Carter of the Republican party; inexperienced outsider who wins narrowly (with a coalition of states unusual for his party in recent elections),  who while having large congressional majorities, has different priorities that leads to not much getting done, and then gets trounced four years later, whose election is then regarded in the history books as a circumstantial aberration during a period of White House control for the opposite party.
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