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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: Elizabeth Warren as my opponent “would be a dream come true” on: April 28, 2017, 05:30:10 pm
Trump is name checking her (or rather, name checking "Pocahontas") as someone who might be running against him in 2020 yet again:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-pocahontas-elizabeth-warren-nra_us_59038939e4b05c39767f41fa

Quote
President Donald Trump warned attendees at the National Rifle Association’s annual convention on Friday that they probably won’t like the Democrats running for president in 2020. He used a derogatory nickname to specifically call out Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).

“I have a feeling that in the next election, you’re going to be swamped with candidates, but you’re not going to be wasting your time,” said Trump, the first sitting president to address the NRA’s convention since Ronald Reagan. “You’ll have plenty of those Democrats coming over and you’re going to say, ‘No, sir. No, thank you. No, ma’am.’ Perhaps ‘ma’am.’ It may be Pocahontas, remember that. And she is not big for the NRA, that I can tell you. But you came through for me, and I am going to come through for you.”

The crowd booed when he mentioned Warren.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What candidates would get SMASHED in a general election? on: April 28, 2017, 05:23:22 pm
Most likely to: Bill De Blasio, Elizabeth Warren, Keith Ellison, Michael Bloomberg, Andrew Cuomo

You don't think Cuomo will be able to roll over the opposition with his Monopoly car?


3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict 2020 (POTUS election) on: April 28, 2017, 02:35:51 pm
I don't want to create a separate thread so I'll just ask this here:

Is there any betting site where I can bet on Pence being the 2020 GOP nominee?

Sure, just go to the Politics section on Betfair:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/

Problem is, I'm pretty sure it's illegal for Americans to bet there.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich’s book release and book tour thread UPDATE: Kasich on The Daily Show on: April 28, 2017, 02:31:55 pm
I wish he ran third part in 2016, I believe he could have thrown the election to the house and then he would have won.
lol




Kasich is elected in the house

If Kasich is doing so well that he's managing to win Ohio and Utah, then he's presumably doing well enough to peel off Republican votes in other states, such that he'd tip states like Florida and Arizona to Clinton, giving her an electoral college majority.  And why would Trump win NV and NH?  I don't actually imagine that Kasich would be drawing more votes from Clinton than he would from Trump.....Unless he really runs left in the campaign, in which case, why would the Republican House of Representatives elect him?

And even if there was an electoral college deadlock, no way is Kasich going to get a majority there if he's not the Republican nominee.  Best he could manage would be to create a deadlock in the House where no one has a majority.  Then the Senate elects Pence as VP, and we get Acting President Mike Pence.  Or, alternatively, maybe there's a movement among Republican electors to pick a compromise candidate, who is neither Trump nor Kasich.  But no way is Kasich going to get an outright majority of either presidential electors or Republicans in the House, after just having left the party to run as an Indy.
5  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Skip Bayless vs Max Kellerman on: April 28, 2017, 12:59:15 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkI5KWyPqSo
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich’s book release and book tour thread UPDATE: Kasich on The Daily Show on: April 28, 2017, 12:46:58 pm
Kasich on the PBS Newshour:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Qldynp1hX8

And here's a Buzzfeed News story on whether Kasich might be "done" with the Republican Party:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/henrygomez/john-kasich-sounds-like-hes-over-the-republican-party?utm_term=.mpkrx1Rpl#.kkKv9LoN7
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: April 28, 2017, 11:29:35 am
Julian Castro says “I won’t take it off the table” when asked about a presidential run in 2020:

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/04/lord-ashcroft-in-texas-voters-arent-sure-if-trump-is-right-about-everything-scary-or-both.html

And here’s Kasich in NH:

http://www.nh1.com/news/asked-about-a-2020-run-kasich-tells-nh1-news-i-don-t-know-what-s-going-to-happen-/

Quote
Former Republican presidential candidate John Kasich says he’ll “see how things develop in the future” when asked about the possibility of making another run for the White House.

And in an interview on NH1 Newsmakers, the Ohio governor said he’ll campaign in the 2018 midterm elections for GOP candidates “who I have respect for,” but added that he won’t be supporting “any Republicans who are dividers.”
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Martin O’Malley sounds like a fortune cookie on: April 28, 2017, 08:15:21 am
Another fun O'Malley-ism from his debate with Ayotte:

http://onwardstate.com/2017/04/28/governor-omalley-and-senator-ayotte-debate-the-current-state-and-future-of-american-politics/

Quote
“In our country, we believe that our economy is not money. It is people – it is all of our people.”

Why didn't they teach me that in Econ 101?
9  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Four years from today, who will be.....? on: April 27, 2017, 01:55:16 pm
One month to go until the four year anniversary of this thread’s creation.  Many people who were guessing back in 2013 got Merkel right, and a few got Trudeau right.  No one else who was guessing within the first month of this thread’s creation got any of the other ones right.  Heck, regardless of who wins the French runoff, no one even got the correct political party on that one.  Tongue

Props to change08 though, for correctly (assuming he isn’t ousted within the next few months) guessing Turnbull in his post from Sept. 2013:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=174056.msg3861745#msg3861745
10  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Do you think politicians/campaigns read this forum? on: April 27, 2017, 01:18:07 pm
Martin O'Malley very nearly confirmed to be an Atlas forum lurker:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=263093.msg5626146#msg5626146
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is on with Gillibrand - Now a co-sponsor to Warren's Glass Steagal ! on: April 27, 2017, 08:08:38 am
She was always a liberal. She lied about being a Blue Dog to get elected from Upstate New York.

Regardless, I don't think she'd be co-sponsoring virtually every single progressive bill in the Senate right now, or voting against more Trump nominees than anyone else if she wasn't running for president.  There are other liberals in the Senate too, and they're not all co-sponsoring every one of these bills.
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion Thread: mayy lmao on: April 26, 2017, 10:36:39 pm
One poll shows a drop in support for Scottish independence:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/25/poll-blow-nicola-sturgeon-scottish-independence-support-drops/
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is on with Gillibrand - Now a co-sponsor to Warren's Glass Steagal ! on: April 26, 2017, 10:32:14 pm
In a primary race that lacks a single strong frontrunner, there's going to be a lot of pandering to the base.  It happened during the last few Republican presidential primaries (none of the last three GOP races had a strong frontrunner in the sense that Bush 2000 or even Dole 1996 were strong frontrunners), and it'll probably happen with the Dems now in 2020.

Gillibrand has simply gotten out front on several of these issues, but she's not going to be the only one.  Though I'd be curious to know how many of these things are actually reversals for her.  She mentioned in that NY Mag story that she's actually supported single payer health care for a long time now.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich’s book release and book tour thread UPDATE: Kasich on The Daily Show on: April 26, 2017, 01:56:49 pm
Here's the full video of his interview on The Daily Show:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Qw3Lhc_zt8
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The TrumpCare comes back from the dead thread on: April 26, 2017, 12:33:20 pm
Breaking: HFC announces support for new bill:
https://mobile.twitter.com/AP/status/857275725119991808


Once more with feeling, if it touches Medicaid and Medicare, it is not passing.

We have to keep telling ourselves this but with these guys...forget it, they'll pass it anyway

Chances in the house... 30-40%, Chances in the Senate... 0-5%

They could just change the rules in the Senate to pass it without 60 votes


Last I checked there were only 52 GOP senators, and there is no way that they get Collins/Murkowski on this, so they have to hold everyone else, and use Pence.... Given that COTTON seemed to hate the AHCA, I kinda doubt that would happen.

Reps don't care...they'll do it anyway. Read the memos Congressional GOPers send themselves. They think they have 100% backing from the American public...it's like a cult over there

Isn't that what you were saying before the previous version of Trumpcare collapsed?
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: April 26, 2017, 08:52:47 am
"5 Signs Elizabeth Warren Will Run For President In 2020":

https://www.bustle.com/p/5-signs-elizabeth-warren-will-run-for-president-in-2020-53537
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: AMN: Mr. Morden Edition on: April 26, 2017, 08:21:17 am
This thread is now reserved for all of you to not ask me any questions.  Please feel free to not ask me anything at all.

regards,
Mr. Morden
18  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Suggestions and advice for a potential relationship on: April 26, 2017, 08:14:30 am
I still think this might be a masterful troll thread.

Ah, remember the classic "Is Bushie real?" debates?  Tongue
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Rjjr77 on: April 25, 2017, 07:16:32 pm
In retrospect, he probably should have won this poll:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=256089.0
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kamala Harris vs Tuisi Gabbard on: April 25, 2017, 04:47:55 pm
I think it's a totally respectable position to say that the US should take no military action against Assad, because the alternative is worse.  Meeting with him also isn't necessarily something that I'm against.  My problem with Gabbard is more that she went to Syria and spoke with a bunch of Syrians in Assad-controlled territory (and thus, presumably people vetted by Assad), then came back and repeated Assad-approved propaganda about how all the rebels are the same, without any consideration of the fact that she might have been getting a skewed perspective by only talking to people in government-held territory.  I discussed this back in January:


He's a horrible person, no doubt, but I'd rather have him run things than ISIS.

But Gabbard hasn't simply said he's better than ISIS.  She's gone on a trip to Syria in which she (apparently) only visited Assad-controlled territory, and talked to Assad-approved Syrians, then came back to the US, seemingly believing everything they said.  No acknowledgement in her commentary of Assad's crimes, or that Assad might be manipulating the stories she was hearing on this trip.


E.g., here is what she concluded after talking to the make-believe opposition in Damascus:


And she has a new op/ed piece which covers much of the same ground:

https://gabbard.house.gov/news/in-the-news/op-ed-us-must-stop-helping-terrorists-fighting-syria-s-government

It seems she met with the pretend opposition (the Assad stooges who “run against him” in elections where he’s getting 97% of the vote), and they told her things like this:

Quote
Repeatedly I was told there is no difference between “moderate” rebels and al-Qaeda (al-Nusra) or ISIS — they are all the same. Although opposed to the Assad government, the political opposition leaders adamantly rejected violence as a way to bring about reforms. They shared that it’s the Wahhabi jihadists, fueled by foreign governments, that pose the greatest threat to Syria and its history as a secular, pluralist, once-peaceful society. They continue to seek government reforms, but support the Syrian state over jihadist terrorist groups as they work to bring peace to Syria.

21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Forum Community Popular Threads Directory on: April 25, 2017, 04:38:52 pm
This thread has just become one of my favorites, thank you so very much

It's such an important thread that it deserves to be linked in the OP.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: April 25, 2017, 02:45:45 pm
Kasich was asked about a 2020 presidential run at last night’s CNN town hall, and he didn’t rule it out:

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/330376-kasich-wont-close-door-on-2020-presidential-run

Quote
Asked Monday during a CNN town hall whether he would run for the White House in 2020, Kasich responded: "Very unlikely that I will run for public office."

"You wouldn't close the door on it?" CNN's Anderson Cooper asked.

"How do you close the door on anything?" Kasich responded. "If I see something I need to do to help my country, that I really believe that I have to do, then I would think I would probably do it."
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sherrod Brown and Al Franken: who is more likely to run? on: April 25, 2017, 01:56:13 pm
Franken was Shermanesque in his denial immediately following the election.

So was Mark Warner, but he's already done some backpedaling on that:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=233345.msg5618014#msg5618014

I don't know.  Like I said, my guess is that neither of them run.  But I guess we'll find out more next month, when Franken's book comes out.  Surely he'll get the presidential question again (he'll most likely get it repeatedly) while he's doing his book promotion, and we'll see if he sticks by a Shermanesque refusal to consider it, or if he leaves some wiggle room.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can a female win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination post-Hillary? on: April 25, 2017, 12:38:15 pm
As terrible as it is, I think a lot of people subliminally attribute a significant portion of the fact that Hillary lost to her being a woman.

I don't think a woman will be the nominee in 2020.

Unfortunately, there seems to be a higher-standard for liberal women.  I expect that, like most of developed world, the U.S.' first female president will come from the center-right.   

That's in the general election though.  Is being female really a big disadvantage in the primaries?

As I said upthread, I remain skeptical of the ideas that voters take lessons on who is electable and who isn't from previous elections.  So I don't see Clinton losing the GE in 2016 as the sort of thing that'll make primary voters skittish about nominating another woman.  The impression I get is more that voters like who they like, and then talk themselves into believing that whoever they like is going to be electable.

I do think it's probably more likely than not that the 2020 Dem. nominee will be male, but that's just because the majority of candidates will be male, so they have better odds.  It's not because the women in the race face big gender-induced roadblocks to being nominated.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can a female win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination post-Hillary? on: April 25, 2017, 11:37:10 am
Its not likely in 2020... although very likely in 2024 or 2028(if Dems win 2020).

If I were giving odds which female could win 2020... and they would all be below 15% ...

1) Hillary
2) Gillibrand
3) Klobuchar

Are there *any* candidates (male or female) who currently have a probability of winning the nomination that's over 15%?  I'd say that it's debatable, since the race is so wide open.  On my personal rankings, I'd actually probably put Warren somewhere in the 15-20% probability range, and every other candidate (both male and female) below 15% (though Booker is a close call).
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