Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 29, 2015, 09:43:15 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 905
1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Three top Bush fundraisers leave campaign on: Today at 07:12:23 am
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/jeb-bush-president-2016-fundraisers-problems-213156

Quote
Three top Jeb Bush fundraisers abruptly parted ways with his presidential campaign on Friday, amid internal personality conflicts and questions about the strength of his candidacy, POLITICO has learned.

There are different versions of what transpired. The Florida-based fundraising consultants — Kris Money, Trey McCarley, and Debbie Alexander — have said that they voluntarily quit the campaign and were still working with Bush's super PAC, Right to Rise Super PAC. Others said the three, who worked under the same contract, were let go because they were no longer needed for the current phase of the campaign.
.
.
.
One source attributed the departures to personality conflicts in the campaign, some involving Bush's finance team.

“They were glad to go. This wasn’t a shock to anybody,” said one campaign source. “There were just some personality problems. It happens when you have a big organization like this, a big campaign. Some of the national people are tough to work for.”
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: When Will Yeb Bush drop out? on: Today at 07:09:56 am
After Super Tuesday, after coming in fourth place in most primaries but before having to endure the humiliation of losing his home state.

Only Jeb and Rubio are capable of winning FL unless both have dropped out, and they'd vote for Jeb before Rubio.

Yes, just like Giuliani is the only person who can possibly win New York.  Except that after being blown out of the water in the early states, he ended up behind in the polls even there, just before he dropped out.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac-National: Clinton and Trump ahead on: August 28, 2015, 02:20:13 pm
Another poll in which Trump gets slightly more support from moderate Republicans than conservative Republicans.

fav/unfav % among Dems:

Biden 83/6% for +77%
Clinton 76/11% for +65%
Sanders 54/8% for +46%
Webb 11/10% for +1%
O’Malley 12/13% for -1%
Chafee 8/10% for -2%

fav/unfav % among Republicans:

Rubio 72/3% for +69%
Carson 62/6% for +56%
Huckabee 64/15 for +49%
Walker 52/5% for +47%
Bush 59/17% for +42%
Fiorina 49/8% for +41%
Cruz 54/13% for +41%
Kasich 36/5% for +31%
Jindal 36/5% for +31%
Perry 45/16% for +29%
Trump 59/30% for +29%
Santorum 38/20% for +18%
Christie 39/32% for +7%
Paul 35/35% for +/-0
Pataki 15/17% for -2%
Gilmore 6/11% for -5%
Graham 23/28% for -5%

So yes, Paul’s 35% unfavorable # among his own party is the highest among all candidates—higher than Trump’s #.  More evidence that the debate really damaged him.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: August 28, 2015, 01:49:53 pm
Clinton campaign trying to downplay Biden talk:

http://news.yahoo.com/clinton-quietly-trying-discourage-biden-2016-bid-071306799--election.html

Quote
In ways both subtle and blunt, Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign is sending a message to Vice President Joe Biden about his potential presidential campaign: This won't be easy.

As Biden ponders a challenge to Clinton for the Democratic nomination, she has rolled out a string of high-profile endorsements in the early-voting contests of Iowa and South Carolina and scheduled an onslaught of fundraisers across the country in the effort to throw cold water on a possible Biden bid.

Donors who have publicly expressed support for a Biden run have been contacted by the Clinton team, according to donors and Democratic strategists who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the private conversations. Even Clinton herself has made a few calls, they said, to express her disappointment.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Survey Monkey poll:Trump way up in GOP race, but Hillary struggles for lead in D on: August 28, 2015, 01:24:39 pm
It says that the top two on the Democratic side are:

Clinton 38%
Sanders 32%

when you only include Democrats, but that becomes:

Sanders 30%
Clinton 28%

when you include Indies.
6  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Why Dave and the mods are letting the website becoming a new Stormfront? on: August 28, 2015, 09:15:30 am
Seinfeld's posts in that "Europe-Middle East-Africa Refugee Crisis" thread have gotten a ton of reports, but Afleitch hasn't dealt with any of them yet.  If you have further complaints about that, get on Afleitch's case to deal with his reports.  Tongue

Most of the other posters who people are complaining about here aren't getting many reports.  What specific posts outside of that thread rise to the level of something that someone should be banned over, if that's what's being advocated here?
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: latest Betfair odds on: August 27, 2015, 03:30:45 pm
Biden surge continues, as does Walker crash…

Democrats
Clinton 71.9
Biden 15.4
Sanders 12.8

Republicans
Bush 38.2
Rubio 15.4
Trump 14.5
Walker 10.7
Kasich 7.0
Huckabee 5.0
Cruz 4.5
Carson 4.0
Fiorina 4.0
Paul 3.1

Winning Individual
Clinton 44.1
Bush 19.3
Biden 8.1
Trump 6.5
Sanders 6.2
Rubio 6.0
Walker 3.8
Kasich 3.3
Huckabee 2.6
8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Real ideology/Forum ideology on: August 27, 2015, 03:17:45 pm
So Eastern Ukraine would be real conservative / forum liberal, while Western Ukraine is real liberal / forum conservative?
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: When did you first hear of each of the candidates? on: August 27, 2015, 02:05:47 pm
So this is a funny answer, cause the candidate I heard about first was Donald Trump.

The first one for me would also be Trump, but that was back in the 1980s.  I guess Clinton would be second, probably in 1991.  Many of the candidates (e.g., Sanders, Chafee, Graham, Kasich, Bush, Santorum, Pataki...) I would have first hear about in the 1990s, but it's hard to give a specific timeline on all of them.
10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Beginning a New Life on: August 27, 2015, 01:59:55 pm
So, I'm flying to LA tomorrow, to move into my new home and prepare to start my first quarter as a PhD student at UCLA.

I'm at LAX right now.  My layover is so long, that it feels like I'll still be here tomorrow.  Tongue
11  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Was jmfcst a better poster than Einzige? on: August 27, 2015, 01:06:20 pm
Not quite the same topic, but this thread is funny in retrospect, given that we later realized that both Atheist and Hamilton were still with us at the time of the poll:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=176608.15
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Updated CNN debate average + why it may be the same 10 people on: August 27, 2015, 12:11:24 pm
The new Quinnipiac also has Chafee at 0%.  Chafee not qualifying for the first Democratic debate in October is a live possibility, isn't it?
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Updated CNN debate average + why it may be the same 10 people on: August 27, 2015, 12:03:50 pm
So including it would be somewhat apples to oranges. RCP and HuffPo are also not included it. 

HuffPo actually did add it just within the last couple of hours.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac-National: Clinton and Trump ahead on: August 27, 2015, 11:59:14 am
Fiorina's chances of making it into the next "grown ups debate" now seem extremely remote.  Sorry, but just 1 point ahead of Christie isn't going to cut it.

Is 45% the lowest that Clinton has been in a national poll?

At least according to HuffPo's listing, it appears that that is her lowest ever showing, yes.
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Simfan's socks on: August 27, 2015, 11:42:37 am
Ha, it looks like the AAD hivemind is finally starting to backpedal from their sockpuppet smear campaign against Simfan.  I will now accept my accolades.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Updated CNN debate average + why it may be the same 10 people on: August 26, 2015, 07:17:10 pm
I guess they're not including the Civis Analytics poll, even though it's probably higher quality than many of the polls they will include.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Civis Analytics national: Trump 16% Carson 11% Bush 9% Rubio 7% Huck 7% Cruz 7% on: August 26, 2015, 04:10:54 pm
Nate Cohn's latest column has the full #s:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/27/upshot/theres-evidence-that-trumps-polling-support-is-overstated.html?ref=topics

Trump 16%
Carson 11%
Bush 9%
Rubio 7%
Huckabee 7%
Cruz 7%
Walker 5%
Fiorina 3%
Kasich 3%
Paul 3%
Christie 2%
Perry 2%
Santorum 1%
Jindal, Pataki, Gilmore, Graham 0%

Note again that this is among "registered voters who identify as Republicans".  And this is among *actual* registered voters, as determined by voting lists, whereas some polls just ask the respondent if they're registered, and take their word for it.

They also found that some of the candidates do better among Republican primary voters who have actually voted in recent elections (as determined from voter lists) than among the sample of all adults identifying as Republicans.  Those who do better among actual voters by at least one percentage point:

Fiorina +3.4%
Walker +1.4%
Kasich +1.4%
Paul +1.0%
Huckabee 1.0%

And those who do worse:

Trump -1.8%
Christie -1.8%
Carson -2.5%
Bush -3.1%
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Rasmussen national poll: Clinton 50% Sanders 24% on: August 26, 2015, 01:58:18 pm
Rasmussen national poll, conducted Aug. 23-24:

link

Clinton 50%
Sanders 24%
Chafee 2%
O’Malley 2%
Webb 2%
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Message to other Hillary supporters on this board...... on: August 26, 2015, 01:50:00 pm
My mistake; its the blue wall; that Nate Silver gave the Latino states of CO,NV&:Catholic state of Pa, locking in 272 electors.

Wow, Nate Silver is a generous man.  He built a blue wall with his own two hands, and gifted it to western Latinos and Pennsylvania Catholics?  Is the wall like a bluescreen, where you can add special effects?
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / George W. Bush will headline fundraiser for Jeb on: August 26, 2015, 05:49:15 am
Bringing out the big guns?:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/08/26/former-president-george-w-bush-to-headline-jeb-fundraiser-in-new-york-on-sept-10/

Quote
Former President George W. Bush is set to headline a luncheon fundraiser for the Jeb Bush presidential campaign in New York on Sept. 10, according to several people familiar with the event, part of an expanding role he is playing to help raise money for his younger brother's White House bid.

The 43rd president is scheduled to take part in a retreat for top donors in Houston in late October that will also feature their parents, former president George H.W. Bush and former first lady Barbara Bush. Other finance events are in the works, including discussions about a fundraiser in Arkansas in early October, according to people familiar with the plans.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Primary calendar and delegate allocation megathread (Christmas is saved!) on: August 26, 2015, 05:44:28 am
Here is more on Colorado's decision:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/08/colorado-republicans-opt-to-forgo.html

It's possible that the caucuses might be held as early as Feb. 2.  I'd assume that since there'll be no preference vote taken on caucus night, and thus no "winner" of the caucuses, Iowa and New Hampshire will not view these caucuses as a threat, and will not move their contests correspondingly earlier, but I guess anything's possible.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: latest Betfair odds on: August 26, 2015, 05:19:43 am
Biden now in 2nd place on the Dem. side.  Rubio retakes 2nd place on the GOP side.

Democrats
Clinton 72.5
Biden 14.1
Sanders 12.5

Republicans
Bush 38.5
Rubio 14.9
Trump 14.5
Walker 12.5
Kasich 6.5
Cruz 4.3
Carson 4.0
Huckabee 4.0
Fiorina 3.8
Christie 3.3

Four years ago today on Intrade:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3003588#msg3003588

Quote
Perry 37.9
Romney 29.5
Palin 8.1
Huntsman 6.5
Bachmann 5.0
Paul 3.8
Christie 3.1
Giuliani 2.3
Gingrich 1.0
Rubio 0.5
Cain 0.4
Johnson 0.4
Bolton 0.3
Santorum 0.3

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1273885#msg1273885

Quote
Democrats
Clinton 66.0
Obama 17.5
Gore 7.6
Edwards 7.3
Richardson 1.1
Biden 0.8
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 37.0
Romney 23.1
Thompson 21.3
McCain 5.6
Paul 5.5
Huckabee 3.5
Gingrich 3.3
Rice 0.5
Hagel 0.2
J. Bush 0.1
Tancredo 0.1
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Perry campaign, low on cash, stops paying SC staff *UPDATE* actually, all staff on: August 26, 2015, 04:24:14 am
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/rick-perry-2016-restructuring-iowa-121730.html?hp=t4_r

Quote
The former Texas governor, who hoped he would fare better in this presidential election than in his disastrous 2012 try, is poised to reorganize his already under-funded and under-manned staff in Iowa — a development that some of his top aides concede may be the beginning of the end.

The plans were announced on a Monday conference call with Perry’s campaign aides. During the call, according to two campaign officials, the aides were informed that a reorganization was being worked out and would be completed either late this week or early next week. While the campaign did not detail the changes, some on the call said they expect them to be dramatic.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Trump says he might demand networks pay charity of his choice for him to appear in debates on: August 26, 2015, 04:12:16 am
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/donald-trump-reiterates-cnns-jeff-817800?utm_source=twitter

Quote
In an Iowa press conference on Tuesday, the current frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination told the audience that he deserves to get paid for his debate appearances, given that 24 million viewers tuned in to Fox News to watch him and his opponents spar in the first event last month.

Trump said he is "thinking about" asking CNN's Jeff Zucker to give $10 million to the charity of Trump's choosing before the network's upcoming debate, which CNN's Jake Tapper is moderating from the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Library on Sept. 16.

"Otherwise, I'm not going to debate," Trump said.

Trump had made similar comments in his recent Time magazine interview but was particularly fervent about the message during Tuesday's speech.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Gravis national poll: Clinton losing to Trump, Carson, and others on: August 26, 2015, 04:08:07 am
Gravis national poll:

http://www.oann.com/pollnational/








Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 905


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines