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1  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / For a modern European, how many centuries back before a decent %age of his....? on: August 18, 2017, 10:57:58 pm
[Not sure if this belongs in Political Geography / Demographics or in Off-topic, but there’s a lot of ancestry talk here, so I’ll post it here, and if the mods want to move it, so be it.]

I’ve been involved in a lot of ancestry talk recently, and I had this one question that I haven’t seen an answer to anywhere.  I was curious as to whether or not anyone here had any thoughts on it, or knew where I might find the answer….

I’ve read how people say that every modern day European is a descendant of Charlemagne, because if you actually go back 1000 years plus, then you’re going through so many generations that the number of distinct direct ancestors you have from a single generation back then is at least in the tens of millions, such that almost every European who survived until adulthood and had children back in ~1000 will be a direct ancestor of every single European alive today (or similarly, a direct ancestor of everyone in the New World who has largely European ancestry).

But I can’t believe that the flow of ancestry would have any kind of sharp boundaries at Europe’s borders, and so I’ve got to assume that if you’re back to a time period when I (as someone with northwestern European ancestry) had tens of millions of ancestors alive at once, then at least a few % of those people would be outside the conventional borders of Europe, presumably mostly close to Europe, like North Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia.  I would probably even have some in far-flung place like China.  It’s just that the number of lines of ancestry I’d have to, say, Charlemagne would be many times greater than the number of lines of ancestry I’d have to an ancestor in China.  And so my DNA would look overwhelmingly European, even though there would have been periods of time in the past when more than a few % of my distinct direct ancestors lived in either Asia or Africa.

But just how many centuries back do you have to go before a typical northwest European of today has more than a few % of his/her ancestors living outside of Europe?  And/or how many centuries back before he/she can find at least one common ancestor with a non-negligible number of modern day non-Europeans?  Anyone see anything like this question answered by a knowledgeable person on the web somewhere?
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: August 18, 2017, 10:20:00 pm
Also, Franken was on Real Time tonight:

http://ew.com/tv/2017/08/16/al-franken-bill-maher-real-time/
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Harris vs. Gabbard 2020 Democratic Primary Map? on: August 18, 2017, 10:11:44 pm
I think Harris would pull off a large victory.

✓ Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA): 64.5%

Representative Tusli Gabbard (D-HI): 32.4%



I don't see how anyone can win by 30+ points nationally, yet still win barely more than 30 states.  If Gabbard is losing by that kind of national margin, then she only wins in some caucuses.  No real hope in any of the primary states, except maybe Vermont.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: August 18, 2017, 10:05:10 pm
Sunday morning talk show watch: Kasich will be on "State of the Union" on Sunday, while Kaine will be on Face the Nation:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NEWS_SHOWS?SITE=AP
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Corker won't say if he supports Trump's renomination in 2020 on: August 18, 2017, 07:59:51 pm
https://www.rollcall.com/news/opinion/bob-corker-donald-trump-renomination

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On Friday morning, I sent a note to Corker’s office asking whether he would support Trump for renomination in 2020.

“One thing your boss didn't address to my knowledge is whether he supports President Trump for renomination in 2020,” I wrote. “Since the president’s re-election campaign is up and running, and in light of Sen Corker's concerns about the president’s stability, will he weigh in on Trump for re-nomination?”

And here’s what I got back from Corker’s communications director, Micah Johnson: “I don’t have anything to add to the senator’s comments yesterday.”

Here's a question: Are there *any* current Republican Senators who, right now in 2017, would say on the record that they want Trump to be the party's nominee again in 2020?  I'm sure if you asked Senate Dems the same question about Obama in 2009, many/most would have said that of course they want him as the nominee again next time around, but is there anyone in the Senate right now who'd say the same of Trump?

I mean, Trump has already launched his 2020 campaign, so I'm assuming he'd be happy to take endorsements, if anyone was offering them.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: "Draft Garcetti"? on: August 18, 2017, 07:46:36 pm
Not sure if it's just me, but ever since Los Angeles got the 2028 Olympics, I have been followed (on Twitter) a bunch of "Draft Garcetti" accounts. These include https://twitter.com/FL4Garcetti (Florida for Garcetti), https://twitter.com/SFL4Garcetti (South Florida for Garcetti), https://twitter.com/CFL4Garcetti (Central Florida for Garcetti), and https://twitter.com/Miami4Garcetti (Miami for Garcetti)

It would be one thing if these were just a few state-based or major city-based accounts, but these are getting pretty specific. Does this show that theres a concerted effort to draft LA's mayor for President? And how much involvement do people close to Garcetti or Garcetti himself have in this effort?

It's a coordinated effort by a group of people who previously tried to draft Biden:

http://www.dailynews.com/government-and-politics/20170814/la-mayor-eric-garcetti-for-president-twitter-users-say-yes-please
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will Trump Recover? on: August 17, 2017, 09:23:55 pm
This reminds me a lot of Pussygate. Plenty of Republican office holders jumped ship then... and jumped back in a few days later.

I don't think that's quite right.  Or at least, I wouldn't put it that way.  The media botched their reporting of the GOP reaction to Pussygate.  In actuality, hardly anyone actually de-endorsed Trump only to re-endorse him later.  There were a few such examples, like Mike Crapo, but that was pretty rare.  Far more common were cases like John McCain (de-endorsed Trump, and held to that through election day) or John Thune (said that Trump should drop out because the party would be better off with Pence leading the ticket, but never said that he wouldn't vote for Trump in the event that Trump failed to drop out).

What did happen though is that the Republicans who de-endorsed Trump after the tape came out didn't keep talking about it non-stop throughout the remaining weeks of the campaign.  They made their statement, and then pretty much left it at that.  For some reason, I think some folks were expecting them to start campaigning for Clinton or something?

Similarly, with the current situation, I don't see that many Republicans contradicting their statements on Trump, as such.  They're not calling on him to resign or saying they'd vote to impeach, and I doubt they're going to.  They're saying that they hate a particular action or position of his, but then moving on.  I'm not sure that counts as "jumping ship and then jumping back on".  If they never called on Trump to resign, then in what sense have they ever "jumped ship"?  Presidents get criticized by their own party on something or other all the time, so I'm not sure what's supposed to be different about this time.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Dem. Super PAC doing oppo research on Pence in case he’s the GOP nominee on: August 17, 2017, 08:56:51 pm
https://www.buzzfeed.com/tariniparti/democrats-are-preparing-to-run-against-mike-pence-in-2020

Quote
Democrats are already preparing for a possible 2020 presidential bid by Vice President Mike Pence, with a major group dedicating staff — including on the ground in Indiana — to dig up dirt on him, amid rumblings that Pence is positioning himself for a run.

American Bridge 21st Century — a Democratic opposition super PAC and nonprofit funded by liberal mega-donors — is leading the effort, which started earlier this summer and kicked into high gear following a New York Times story reporting on Pence's "shadow campaign."
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The group, which will simultaneously continue its focus on targeting Trump, has three staffers dedicated to Pence more than three years before the 2020 election. Bridge shared its initial round of research with BuzzFeed News, giving a glimpse into Democrats' early strategy against Pence — which is focused on denying the vice president an opportunity to distance himself from the administration.

"If he's running for president, we are going to be prepared," said Shripal Shah, vice president of the group, which spent nearly $20 million in the 2016 election cycle through its super PAC.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: August 16, 2017, 11:12:08 pm
Garcetti will head to New Hampshire on Aug. 28th to campaign for Manchester mayoral candidate Joyce Craig:

http://www.wmur.com/article/wmur-first-la-mayor-garcetti-headed-to-nh-to-campaign-for-joyce-craig-in-manchester/12016249
10  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Petition to move the 2016 Presidential Board to the "Election Archive" Category on: August 16, 2017, 10:53:23 pm
No reason it needs to be one of the first boards you see when the election happened more than 9 months ago.

Didn't Dave used to keep old election boards well past the election date?

Not exactly.  Dave put the 2012 board in the archive as early as January 2013:

http://web.archive.org/web/20130115202318/http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php

However, that was back when people could still post in the archive.  Dave changed the layout in 2015 so that now no one can post in a board that's been archived.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: August 16, 2017, 09:25:45 pm
at the very least, I think Kasich getting even ~20% of the vote in a primary against Trump would basically mean he's almost certain to lose the general election. look at Buchanan '92 or Kennedy '80.

I just don't think it works like that anymore.  I'll just copy and paste what I wrote about this in another thread with minor modification, since the same applies here:

Trump is unpopular among GOP elites, he always has been, and that's unlikely to change between now and 2020, whether he gets a primary challenge or not.  Last year, fully a fifth of GOP Senators wouldn't even endorse him in the general election, yet it seems not to have mattered, as he won anyway.  For all we know, Trump could spin an unsuccessful primary challenge as more evidence that he's put a scare in "the establishment", and voters in the general election will largely brush it off, just like they brushed off the fact that party elites weren't united behind him last time.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Marist Poll: Trump +41 against Kasich, +23 against Pence in GOP primary on: August 16, 2017, 02:34:15 pm
Kasich vs. Trump crosstabs:
Republicans: Trump +41
Indies: Trump +43
support Tea Party: Trump +62
don’t support Tea Party: Trump +30
moderate: Trump +8
conservative: Trump +54
income less than $50k: Trump +34
income over $50k: Trump +42
not a college graduate: Trump +42
college graduate: Trump +39
under age 45: Trump +9
over age 45: Trump +62
men: Trump +49
women: Trump +33
white Evangelical Christian: Trump +49

So it looks like the biggest determining factors here are ideology and age.  Kasich does best among youngs and moderates.  Are there any states where young moderates are a large fraction of the GOP primary electorate?  If so, then Kasich might not get blown out there.  Tongue
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: August 16, 2017, 02:25:35 pm
I think Warren may not run if Kamala does, but support her colleague from California instead, because it's obvious that Harris is the stronger general election candidate.

Candidates rarely ever opt out of the race just because they think someone else would be a better general election candidate.  Rather, they opt out of the race only if they don't think they have a very good chance of winning the nomination.
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is all the John Delaney talk on the 2020 board rather pathetic? on: August 15, 2017, 03:12:20 pm
Yes, to some extent. I guarantee the dude won't even make it to the IA caucus.

Jim Gilmore made it to the Iowa caucus, so why not Delaney?  Gilmore's secret was to not leave his house very often, or hire staff, or run ads.  The campaign can't go into debt if it doesn't spend money.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: August 14, 2017, 10:20:48 pm
Hickenlooper's latest non-denial:

http://denver.cbslocal.com/2017/08/14/john-hickenlooper-health-care/

Quote
Hickenlooper did admit he is “not” taking his name off the presidential list for 2020 although he says his team is focused working on a workforce training so that Colorado can be the “healthiest state in America.”

He says he does not want to get “distracted” from that.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Steve Bullock is the guy for 2020. on: August 14, 2017, 10:19:21 pm
Another thing to keep in mind that Bullock running for president could very well result in him losing the nomination (extremely likely) and Steve Daines winning reelection to the Senate, so it would be a lose-lose situation for Democrats. Like I said before, Daines could lose to some other Democrat as well, but Bullock would be their best bet.

If Bullock has any interest in running for president, then I doubt he cares about what happens to the Senate seat.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kamala Harris' husband is a white man. Will that be an issue w black voters? on: August 14, 2017, 10:16:17 pm
As I've said before, de Blasio should try to outflank both Booker and Harris among black voters by noting that he's the only candidate with a black wife.  Tongue
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Delaney to make Iowa debut next week on: August 13, 2017, 10:19:40 pm
Btw, here's a new Delaney interview:

http://www.businessinsider.com/who-is-john-delaney-running-for-president-2017-8

Quote
He told Business Insider that once he settled on running, he saw that the early announcement was "an asset, not a liability" in order to introduce himself to voters, better understand what they're doing, and raise the resources to stay in the primaries through the first several states.

"I also have never liked the cat-and-mouse games that some politicians play about running: Running, not running, running, when everyone knows they're running," Delaney said. "So my view is — I came to the decision to do it. I'd like to spend a lot of time working to achieve it, and I felt that was the right thing to do to achieve that."
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump reelection campaign releases first tv ad on: August 13, 2017, 04:25:38 pm
There's already a thread on this:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=270750.0

Tongue
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Trump campaign is already running TV ads on: August 13, 2017, 04:08:26 pm
Here's their first 2020 ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-mufjTSCzs
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: SJW's Take Issue with...the Maryland Flag on: August 13, 2017, 03:23:48 pm
You could use this logic on any of the original 13 colonies.  E.g.:

-New York's flag includes the state's coat of arms.
-The coat of arms for New York was designed at a time when slavery was still legal in New York.
-Therefore, the flag of New York is racist.

Checkmate.  Tongue

Since slavery was at one point legal in all of the original 13 colonies, I guess this works for all of them in some fashion.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Will Trump get more or fewer primary votes in 2020 than he got in 2016? on: August 13, 2017, 03:12:39 pm
Trump got ~14 million votes in the 2016 primaries (depending on how you count...estimates vary).  This was about 45% of the total votes cast in the 2016 GOP primaries.  Will he get more or fewer primary votes next time around?

Things to consider:

1) It's always possible that Trump will drop out of the race at some point between now and 2020.

2) Historically, incumbent presidents who are essentially unchallenged for renomination actually get fewer votes in the primaries the second time around, because no one turns out to vote if the nomination isn't really contested.  E.g., Obama got more votes in the 2008 primaries than in 2012, because there was no point voting in the Dem. primaries in 2012.  Same with GW Bush and Bill Clinton.  But GHW Bush got more primary votes in 1992 then 1988, because Buchanan's candidacy actually prompted Bush supporters to show up to vote in the primaries.

3) OTOH, Trump only got 45% of the primary vote last time, which is lower than any of those previous recent presidents, so I guess he has room to grow, even if he doesn't face a serious challenge.

4) OTOH, turnout in the GOP primaries last time was higher than normal, so it might take a lot to replicate that.
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Video: NO Americans interviewed in L.A. are able to locate North Korea on a map on: August 13, 2017, 11:11:17 am
You do realize this is Jimmy Kimmel, right?

So ?

Do you think the answers would be different if you made a private video in L.A. ?

"This video isn't real evidence of my hypothesis, but I bet my hypothesis is correct anyway, therefore I will hold up this video as evidence of my hypothesis."
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: August 13, 2017, 11:07:51 am

From that story:

Quote
Mayor de Blasio is putting out feelers to run for president, spreading whispers that Bernie Sanders, 75, and Elizabeth Warren, 68, are too old, sources say.

De Blasio, 56, will claim he’s the rightful standard bearer for the progressive wing of the Democratic party.

“He thinks he’s going to coast to re-election victory,” one Dem told me. “His people are sending out overtures asking where he should go next and whom he should meet on a national level.”

But the best part:

Quote
“He thinks he’s the inheritor of the Warren and Sanders legacy,” said a Democratic power broker, “but no one told Warren and Sanders they were dead.”
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Warren's "merchandising empire" on: August 13, 2017, 11:04:58 am
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/13/inside-elizabeth-warren-merchandising-industry-241577

Quote
The Massachusetts senator and presidential prospect is at the center of a sprawling business built around her appeal to liberals across the country — a reminder of the unabashed devotion she inspires on the left and the footprint she’ll cast in the 2020 Democratic primary.
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Warren’s campaign store has expanded beyond traditional political fare such as buttons, bumper stickers, tote bags and t-shirts to offer a line of products that capitalize on the “Nevertheless, she persisted” meme spawned by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s much-publicized admonishment of Warren on the Senate floor earlier this year.
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The campaign says it has sold 20,000 of the t-shirts alone – and at $24.99 a pop, that comes out to almost a half-million dollars. It has already sold out of temporary tattoos and pink hats with white “Nevertheless, she persisted,” stitching, also priced at $24.99 and marketed specifically for Mother’s Day.

Warren’s campaign wouldn’t disclose the specific amount of tattoos and hats produced, but said together it was a “couple thousand.”

The widest range of Warren-inspired swag, however, is sold by private vendors. A quick search of “she persisted” yields roughly 5,400 results on Etsy and 33,000 on Amazon, with items for sale including bracelets, bodysuits, coffee mugs, laptop decals, signs, portraits, cross-stitch patterns, phone cases, coasters, and wine glasses, among other things.
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