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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Graham: global warming is real, but Al Gore politicized it on: Today at 07:56:02 am
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-03-24/lindsey-graham-blames-republicans-and-al-gore-for-climate-change-inaction

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Following a Monday speech at the Council of Foreign Relations, Graham was asked whether Republicans in Congress could partner with Democrats to deal with the issue of climate change. In response, the potential presidential candidate said that a bipartisan response to the problem would have to wait until his fellow Republicans agree that there was a problem in the first place.

"You know, when it comes to climate change being real, people of my party are all over the board," Graham said. "I said that it's real, that man has contributed to it in a substantial way."
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"But the problem is, Al Gore's turned this thing into religion," Graham continued. "You know, climate change is not a religious problem for me. It's an economic, it is an environmental problem."
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"I think the Republican Party has to do some soul searching. Before we can be bipartisan, we've got to figure out where we are as a party," he said. "What is the environmental platform of the Republican Party? I don't know, either."
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: Today at 07:51:12 am
Some Clinton announcement details:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/03/hillarys-clinton-2016-announcement-plan-116442.html?hp=t4_r

Quote
Clinton staffers say the kick-off announcement is likely to be made during the first few weeks in April but stressed that no firm date has been chosen yet. Most expect that Clinton’s initial announcement comes via social media or by mass email, followed by events. The location of her first in-person event has yet to be chosen, they say.

The consensus among most Democrats POLITICO spoke to is that Clinton’s two most likely kick-off locations are New Hampshire, site of her stunning come-from-behind victory in 2008 or Iowa, a state Obama won handily, setting the stage for his nomination and presidency. New Hampshire would be a more comfortable choice for the Clintons, who view the state as a friendly bulwark for their brand of establishment Democratic politics. But Clinton’s team wants to convince voters in Iowa – the nation’s first to vote in 2016 – that she values the battleground state, despite trashing its quirky caucus system eight years ago.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: Today at 07:30:04 am
Graham will be in Iowa today and tomorrow:

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article16375658.html
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Hillary refuse to debate in the primaries? on: Today at 07:26:57 am
I bet MSNBC would air a debate with just 2 but I suspect in the end Hillary will end up with 3 challengers, maybe 4. In addition to Sanders and Webb there is O'Malley and maybe Robert Reich (who has hinted he may run if Warren doesn't). There could be others.

In May 2011 Fox aired a debate with 5 candidates (Cain, Johnson, Paul, Pawlenty and Santorum). 

So I'm just saying it is possible that the non-Hillarys may not sit around and wait for her, they may roll their own with friendly outlets. You can also probably count on local media to sponser (both TV and papers). THey may feel that if they build it, maybe Hillary will come.

Yes, they had a debate with 5 candidates, with frontrunner Romney not being present.  But Romney was not seen as being a terribly dominant frontrunner at that time.  The race was still pretty unsettled, and we didn't know which candidates were going to be important.

I'm just saying, even if O'Malley, Sanders, and Webb all run (and it's not clear that they all will), if Clinton remains ahead by 40 points in the polls, and has the entire party establishment backing her as of ~5 months from now when the GOP debates start, who is really going to bother putting on a debate for three guys who, even if you combine their support, still trail the frontrunner who isn't there?  It's not clear that there would be much interest for such an event.  [It's also not clear that all of these guys are still going to be running by then.  Who is going to donate money to Martin O'Malley to keep his campaign running?  As one of his aides said last year, "all of his donors are Clinton's donors".]

Now, if one of them actually threatens Clinton's standing in either Iowa or NH, for example, *then* there'd be some interest.  But otherwise, I'm not so sure.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: Today at 03:32:18 am
Huckabee is going to school on the issues, in advance of a possible presidential run:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2015/03/26/huckabee-goes-back-to-school-as-he-moves-closer-to-2016-run/

Quote
Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who struggled during his 2008 presidential campaign to win over economic and foreign-policy conservatives, is scheduled to study up Thursday on tax policy and international affairs in a series of meetings at Stanford University.

Huckabee, 59, who is considering a 2016 bid for the Republican nomination, will attend several private sessions at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, a conservative research center on campus.
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Lanhee Chen, a Hoover fellow and Mitt Romney’s policy director during the 2012 campaign, will take part in the discussions, along with several of the think tank’s resident scholars. Bob Wickers, Huckabee’s political strategist, will also be there.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH-Suffolk: Bush +5 over Walker, Trump ahead of Cruz and Christie on: Today at 03:27:56 am
Full results:


7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Hillary refuse to debate in the primaries? on: Today at 02:27:40 am
What network is actually going to bother to broadcast a debate between Sanders and Webb, if Clinton isn't participating?  I realize that MSNBC's ratings are already low as it is, but how many people would actually watch such a thing?
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker (privately) flips back to supporting pathway to citizenship. on: March 26, 2015, 11:50:36 pm
It will be interesting to see how he responds. Will he deny it?

Yes.  Walker says he didn't make those comments:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/26/scott-walker-immigration_n_6950470.html
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Hillary refuse to debate in the primaries? on: March 26, 2015, 11:40:13 pm
Yeah, the Iowa caucuses will most likely be held in late January.  It's pretty easy to refuse to participate in debates that are scheduled for more than two months before anyone is voting.  E.g….

"Goodness gracious.  It's still so early, and the voters in the earliest primary states won't be casting their ballots for at least two months.  Voters in other states won't vote for another *six* months.  I think we should wait until more voters are tuned in to the process."

So she refuses to do any debates until after Thanksgiving.  The first debate she participates in is during the holiday season, when people are less tuned into politics, and more tuned into buying presents.  That way, if anything goes wrong in the debate, the damage is limited.

This is also late enough that even if she has a catastrophic Perry-like "oops" gaffe, it's too late for any new opponents to jump into the race at the last minute, because many of the primary filing deadlines will have already passed.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: St. Leo University (National): Hillary up 9-16 points on: March 26, 2015, 10:27:50 pm
St. Leo University? What do we know about their record?

From a cursory glance of their site:

Final FL-Gov poll: Crist up 3 (4 point miss)
FL-26: Curbelo up 4 (nailed it)

Their track record is more thin than bad, so better than Gravis, though that's obviously not saying much.
The average error on 2014 polls was bad across the board due to the unpredictably abysmal turnout.

The polls weren't actually that bad, by the standards of recent midterm elections:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/24/election-polling_n_6932004.html

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The polling misfires of 2014 have greater precedent if we broaden the comparison to include different measures and elections held in the 1990s and earlier. For example, Nate Silver’s initial assessment of average bias— whether polls collectively favored one party or the other—in 2014 found an average four percentage point understatement of Republican Senate margins. However, this calculation also revealed an equally large bias against the Republicans (4.0) in 2002 and an even bigger bias against the Democrats (4.9) in 1998.

Also:


11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / "2016 brawl" on Senate floor on: March 26, 2015, 10:02:26 pm
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/03/ted-cruz-marco-rubio-rand-paul-senate-pentagon-budget-116434.html

Quote
Four GOP senators are trying to gain the upper hand on the commander-in-chief test — Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham — and their competition was on vivid display as the Senate took up a Rubio plan to pump tens of billions of dollars more into the Pentagon budget. Paul blasted the idea because the new spending wasn’t offset by other cuts. And caught in the middle was Cruz, who’s pitching himself as a fiscal conservative who can appeal to the hawkish and libertarian wings of the GOP but ultimately sided with Rubio and Graham.

In an interview with POLITICO, Paul lambasted his foes for engaging in “reckless” and “irresponsible” behavior, showing that they lacked the “courage” and conviction to rein in the country’s mountain of debt. He said there are now two camps in the GOP primary field: one that cares about the debt, and another that does not.
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The tough words came in the aftermath of two votes that both failed Thursday, one proposed by Rubio that would raise defense spending — with no corresponding cuts — and another by Paul that would cut tens of billions from a range of different accounts. Rubio said all other issues are “elementary” when compared with the funding for a robust national defense.

As the Rubio plan was moving forward, Cruz was clearly torn. The Texas senator stood quietly at the well of the Senate chamber for several tense minutes, reading the text of the Rubio amendment and checking his smartphone.

Cruz ultimately sided with Rubio on the vote.
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Saudi Arabia and GCC allies bombing Yemen on: March 26, 2015, 09:56:54 pm
How many Arab-majority countries are currently *not* involved in any wars?
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: March 26, 2015, 09:19:13 pm
List of upcoming Rick Perry visits to early primary states:

link

Quote
Perry, who left the state house in January after 14 years at the helm, went to Iowa and New Hampshire this month. He is traveling to South Carolina (where his first campaign began and ended) around Easter and will give a speech at the Citadel, most likely on foreign policy. Perry will go back to New Hampshire in mid-April for a round-up of presidential contenders to kick off primary season there, and will go to Iowa again by the end of the month.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH-Suffolk: Bush +5 over Walker, Trump ahead of Cruz and Christie on: March 26, 2015, 08:51:24 pm
Here are the full results:

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/3_26_2015_marginals.pdf

It looks like they did this poll in a somewhat unusual way.  At first, they didn't read a list of names.  They just asked who would be your first choice for the Republican nomination, and let the poll respondent come up with a name.  45% of respondents offered a name, while the other 55% said they didn't know.  Then they prompted those 55% of "undecided" voters by reading a list of names of candidates (Bolton, Bush, Carson, Christie...).  Then they took the total number of responses for each candidate, combining those that were prompted and those that were unprompted, and reported that as the result for the candidate.  I think this creates a bit of a bias towards candidates with higher name recognition, as compared to polls that read out the candidate list right off the bat.

Also, according to this poll, a plurality of GOP primary voters in NH consider themselves pro-choice, and a plurality support legalizing SSM:

With respect to the abortion issue, would you consider yourself to be pro-choice or pro- life?
pro-choice 49%
pro-life 41%

Do you favor or oppose legalizing same-sex marriage?
favor 43%
oppose 39%
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: March 26, 2015, 08:31:42 pm
Gohmert says he might run:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/237158-louie-gohmert-weighing-presidential-bid

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Conservative firebrand Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Texas) told The Hill that he might run for president in 2016.

Gohmert indicated he might launch an exploratory committee for president when originally asked if he would support Sen. Ted Cruz's (R-Texas) White House bid.

"Ted is a good friend and would be an outstanding President; however, I haven't ruled out an exploratory committee myself," Gohmert said in a statement to The Hill.
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XXII: Cleaning Up the Meat at [redacted]. on: March 26, 2015, 08:11:40 pm
I am starting to get some knowledge under my belt.

That's an unusual place to store knowledge.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Hillary refuse to debate in the primaries? on: March 26, 2015, 06:45:17 pm
She should follow Bush's lead from 2000, and agree to do debates, but only a small number of them.  Refuse all debates until December, by which time most of her opponents will have dropped out anyway.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / St. Leo University: Bush and Clinton lead nationally and in Florida on: March 26, 2015, 06:16:35 pm
St. Leo University did both a national poll and a Florida poll.

http://polls.saintleo.edu/clintons-numbers-slip-but-she-maintains-frontrunner-position/

http://polls.saintleo.edu/bushs-lead-narrows-but-remains-top-choice-of-national-and-florida-republicans-with-close-pack-following/

National:

Dems

Clinton 50%
Biden 11%
Warren 8%
Cuomo 6%
Hickenlooper 3%
Booker 3%
Sanders 3%
O'Malley 2%
Patrick 2%
Gillibrand 2%
Klobuchar 1%
Webb 1%
Warner 0%
Schweitzer 0%

GOP

Bush 15%
Walker 8%
Paul 8%
Rubio 7%
Carson 7%
Christie 7%
Cruz 7%
Huckabee 7%
Perry 5%
Graham 3%
Santorum 3%
Kasich 2%
Jindal 2%
King 2%
Pataki 2%
Fiorina 2%
Pence 1%
Gilmore 1%
Bolton 0%
Ehrlich 0%

Florida:

Dems

Clinton 57%
Biden 15%
Warren 4%
Cuomo 4%
Booker 3%
Schweitzer 2%
Gillibrand 2%
Klobuchar 2%
Webb 2%
O'Malley 1%
everyone else 0%

GOP

Bush 31%
Rubio 16%
Walker 10%
Carson 9%
Paul 7%
Christie 5%
Cruz 4%
Perry 4%
Huckabee 4%
Jindal 1%
Ehrlich 1%
everyone else 0%
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: March 26, 2015, 06:09:23 pm
The latest edition of Ben Carson's syndicated column is about how he can be a better presidential candidate:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/mar/24/ben-carson-striving-to-be-a-better-presidential-ca/

As a result, the national syndication service that publishes his column is suspending the column, until Carson definitively decides whether he's going to run or not:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/03/ben-carson-dropped-creators-syndicate-116412.html?hp=r2_4
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of making posts with ">" on: March 26, 2015, 06:02:07 pm
>implying atlas forum isn't already 4chan
even with the long, sad decline of half chan i'd still take it over the atlas forums

No one's forcing you to be here.
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of making posts with ">" on: March 26, 2015, 08:56:04 am
The usage of the fake word "muh" is far more annoying than ">".  (Though yes, both are annoying.)




Yes, exactly like that.  It's like you're humming backwards!  Quite ridiculous.
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of making posts with ">" on: March 26, 2015, 08:36:13 am
The usage of the fake word "muh" is far more annoying than ">".  (Though yes, both are annoying.)
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What Issues Is The Forum Most/Least Knowledgeable About? on: March 26, 2015, 08:31:15 am
After reading some recent posts, I'd like to change my answer:

best: Bushie's employment history
worst: who is likely to be a sock account the fact that the word "muh" is not real, and its usage is quite annoying
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: March 26, 2015, 08:26:33 am
On whether Biden will run:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/03/wheres-joe-116409.html?hp=t4_r

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Hillary Clinton is about to kick off her campaign, and the vice president has taken no steps to run, or to figure out a real plan for what happens if he doesn’t. But he’s not out of the race, either.

Biden ran for the Democratic nomination in 1988 and again in 2008, and has said he’ll announce this summer whether he’s going to try again. His family is vacillating, aides say. Close advisers say they are so in the dark about what’s in his head that some think he might blow past that self-imposed summer deadline, or even December, or even later, just letting the question hang.

Those close to O'Malley are upgrading his chances of running:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2015/03/23/omalley-boosters-say-2016-bid-increasingly-likely/

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Martin O’Malley's leading supporters left an afternoon gathering in Baltimore on Monday more convinced than ever that he will move forward with a 2016 presidential bid, several participants in the event said.

The former Maryland governor, who’s said he will probably make a decision by May, huddled with more than 150 donors and other boosters at the Baltimore Hilton for what was billed as an “issues conference.” The event was closed to the press and included discussions about foreign policy, health care and education.

Though O’Malley said nothing explicit about his plans, those in attendance said his upbeat nature and assessments offered by top political aides gave them the distinct impression that he is willing to challenge Hillary Rodham Clinton for the Democratic nomination, however long the odds.

Finally, the Sanders people think they will need $50 million to compete, and it's unclear that Bernie is willing to devote the necessary time and energy to chasing big $ donations:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/features/2015-03-26/bernie-sanders-hates-money-in-politics-the-very-thing-he-ll-need-to-beat-clinton
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XXII: Cleaning Up the Meat at [redacted]. on: March 26, 2015, 12:12:06 am
Does [redacted] have its own safe room?  Is there a safe place to be if a tornado hits while Bushie is at work?
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