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May 31, 2016, 08:41:51 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What is the most time-honored Atlas election-year tradition? on: Today at 07:46:45 pm
Hillary will win Utah has to be meme of the year.

Forget that; Trump is making a play for New York and California!  Trickle down EVs!

Don't dismiss the importance of mega coattails:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=162860.0
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Protesters try to rush stage at Bernie's Oakland event; get tackled by SS agents on: Today at 07:40:28 pm
Why does Sanders get Secret Service protection, when candidates like Jim Gilmore and Lincoln Chafee didn't?  #doublestandard
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bill Kristol announces someone will run 3rd party UPDATE: It's David French on: Today at 07:31:50 pm
His experience writing recaps of Game of Thrones will prepare him for the White House:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/435748/game-thrones-recap-when-all-choices-are-terrible?target=author&tid=1048
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Manafort: Trump VP will probably be white male on: Today at 07:13:09 pm
Corker says the federal probe of his finances won’t hurt him:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/bob-corker-trump-investigation-223667

Quote
Sen. Bob Corker insists that the federal investigation into his personal finances won’t hurt his chances of being tapped as Donald Trump’s vice president — not that he’s angling for the job, anyway.

“In some ways, you could look at what has happened over the course of the last year — if that was something that was gonna matter — you could almost look at it as a blessing,” the Tennessee Republican said in an interview, referring to the inquiries by the FBI and the Securities and Exchange Commission. “From the standpoint of my finances, I will be the most vetted person here.”
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“First of all, I have no reason to believe that I am being considered for that position,” Corker said in response to a question about whether he wants to be chosen for vice president, or if the federal investigation could doom his chances. “I haven’t expressed any interest in it and never have.”

“I don’t even think there’s a list yet” of potential Trump running mates, Corker added. “And I have no reason to believe that if a list is developed, I’ll be on it.”
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / NBC/SurveyMonkey national poll: Clinton 53% Sanders 42% on: Today at 07:04:31 pm
NBC/SurveyMonkey national poll, conducted May 23-29:

https://www.scribd.com/doc/314370658/NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Toplines-and-Methodology-5-23-5-29?secret_password=gy6ehxYOZykr35Fg4ces

Clinton 53%
Sanders 42%
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Manafort: Trump VP will probably be white male on: Today at 06:49:54 pm
Scott Brown to meet with Trump? (or maybe the meeting already happened, as I guess it was today?):

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10154141692638168&id=178795233167

Trump says Jeff Sessions is “certainly someone I would consider” for VP:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/31/politics/donald-trump-jeff-sessions-vice-president/index.html
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / NBC/SurveyMonkey national poll: Clinton 47% Trump 45% on: Today at 05:51:55 am
NBC/SurveyMonkey national poll, conducted May 23-29:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/poll-trump-hillary-clinton-223713

Clinton 47%
Trump 45%

Sanders 52%
Trump 40%
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Process / Re: Single Day Primary vs Current System on: Today at 04:44:01 am
Yeah my pref would also be a nationwide one day IRV vote.

I'd actually be curious to know who would have won a nationwide IRV vote on the Republican side this year.
9  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: Today at 12:20:16 am
Incidentally, on the subject of where Jorah should go looking for the cure for greyscale, I suggest going back to Qarth, since this woman was telling him about "protection" in Old Valyria back then, foreshadowing the greyscale he'd be getting three seasons later:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fZqh-qw_0M


Didn't she tell Dany to go to Asshai? It'd be great if we finally got to see Asshai.

I don't know.  I also heard someone suggest that Jorah might go to Oldtown, since last season when Sam mentioned all the knowledge there, he said that there was knowledge about healing.

Wherever Jorah goes, he'd better hope that he can do a better job of hiding his greyscale.  If people see him as a carrier of a dangerous plague, they'll probably just want to kill him.

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And then when it was time to leave, they send Bran on one last journey into the past, to see his young father again?  What was the goal there?  They don’t really explain it.  At the end, we’re left with Hodor being taken down by zombies, giving Meera about a 100 foot head start in a big snowstorm, with her carrying Bran’s sled by herself.  Realistically, wouldn’t they catch up to her in no time?  Maybe the writers should have scaled back the size of the zombie army, so that by the time the fighting is over, it’s just like 3 or 4 of them left vs. Hodor, to make it a little more realistic that he could fend them off long enough for Meera to get a good head start.  Instead it seems like dozens (or more) are left, and so once the door comes down, Meera’s toast.

I thought it was rather clear that Bran had to be sent back to that moment because the Three-Eyed Raven knew that Hodor needed to become debilitated. Like he said, "the ink is dry". Bran was always meant to cause Wyllis to become Hodor and without that occurring none of the present would be possible; without Hodor Bran would have never survived to begin with and the war would be lost.

I thought there was something else going on in that scene.  You see Ned’s father saying goodbye to him before he goes off to be fostered in the Vale.  I thought this was meant to parallel the 3-Eyed Raven sending Bran out into the world, but it wasn’t explained very well.

As for the suggestion that they only went back to that moment because “that’s what always happened” in the timeline…if that’s what the writers were intending, then that seems like lazy writing.

If you’re going to play by the “there is only one timeline and it is immutable” time travel rules, then the way to handle it is to do something like 12 Monkeys (the movie, not the TV show which I haven’t seen).  The characters are aware of the rules of time travel, and it constrains the options available to them in the past, but they don’t purposely set out to complete a particular action simply because “that’s the way it always was in the timeline”.  Yes, what they do in the past was always part of history.  But their particular motives for doing this or that are their own, not to “fulfill destiny”.  (Which seems kind of dumb as a motivation anyway.  If the past is already written, then you don’t have to specifically set out to fulfill it.  It’ll end up happening even if you’re not specifically trying to make it happen.)

So if the only reason that the 3ER had for going back to that particular moment in time was to make sure that Bran scrambled Hodor’s brain according to the history he’d already seen, then that’s dumb.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Jesse Ventura not running for president on: May 30, 2016, 10:25:54 pm
In case you were still wondering:

http://www.startribune.com/jesse-ventura-says-unequivocally-he-will-not-run-for-president/381312391/

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Former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura, who had earlier speculated that he might run for president of the United States this year, has posted a memo on his website stating that he "unequivocally" will not run.

Ventura, 64, who served one term as governor from 1999 to 2003, wrote, "I would love to run against Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

"I'd love to debate them, but, just in case I would win, I don't want to do the job. And if you don't want to do the job, you have no business running for president. That's how I feel."
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: May 30, 2016, 10:09:14 pm
Cotton is asked about 2020, and invokes Dumb & Dumber:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/tom-cotton-run-future-223673

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Indeed, Cotton won’t say exactly what he’s up to. He acknowledges that 2020 presidential speculation is probably inevitable but won’t pop the balloon.

“You guys are like Lloyd from ‘Dumb and Dumber’: ‘So you’re telling me there’s a chance?’” Cotton jokes, likening the media and its incessant questions about a possible White House bid to Jim Carrey’s low-IQ movie character.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: #NeverTrump GOP endorsements (Sasse,Whitman,Romney,Baker, Beck,Kristol,Ridge...) on: May 30, 2016, 09:33:10 pm
Former Rep. Ray LaHood (IL) won't vote for Trump:

http://www.sj-r.com/article/20160526/NEWS/160529638
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bill kristol announces that someone will run third party on: May 30, 2016, 07:15:53 pm
Right now, CNN is discussing the prospect of Illinois Congressman Adam Kinzinger running third party.

Sounds like he's out:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/30/politics/adam-kinzinger-no-path-third-party-run/

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Adam Kinzinger, 38 and in his third House term, would have considered mounting an independent bid had the barriers to an independent run not been so daunting. His pondering of the matter reflects ongoing efforts by GOP forces opposed to Trump and Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic standard-bearer. They have searched feverishly in recent weeks for a candidate of stature to make an independent conservative White House bid. But like Kinzinger, no potential candidate has yet bitten.

Kinzinger, previously a prominent surrogate for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, would have undertaken a third party run "literally to save the union," according to a source familiar with his thinking, because both Clinton and Trump scare him. But Kinzinger does not think the infrastructure exists to get on the ballot in a number of states at this relatively late date.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bill kristol announces that someone will run third party on: May 30, 2016, 07:05:53 am
I really don't understand how someone can think that a 3rd party conservative run will do *long term* damage to the GOP, unless the splinter conservative group remains outside the party beyond 2016 (which it won't, since its only purpose for existing would be to run a non-Trump candidate).  It would blow up Trump's chances this time, but why would it matter in 2020 or beyond?

Likewise, I don't see how it's going to hurt downballot, even this year.  Most of those voters are going to vote for Republicans for other offices.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: #NeverTrump GOP endorsements (Sasse,Whitman,Romney,Baker, Beck,Kristol,Ridge...) on: May 30, 2016, 06:18:32 am
I think you can safely add to the NeverTrumpers list Miami's Republican mayor, Tomas Regalado.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/30/us/politics/donald-trump-general-election-battleground.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=1

Mr. Regalado, a former broadcast journalist, intends to sit out the presidential race. He considers Mrs. Clinton untrustworthy, but views Mr. Trump as a poisonous candidate who has aggravated racial divisions. In Miami, Mr. Regalado said, Mr. Trump is seen as “a bully, as a person who despises people that don’t look like him.”

Yeah, San Diego's Republican mayor is also #NeverTrump, as I mentioned earlier in the thread.  But I wasn't including mayors in the list in the OP, because where do you draw the line as to what's a significant enough city to bother including?  I'm open to adding them though if someone wants propose a standard re: which mayors govern cities big enough that they're worth including in the list.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Manafort: Trump VP will probably be white male on: May 30, 2016, 01:48:04 am
The Trump campaign people were previously saying that they wanted to wait until the convention to announce the running mate, because it would give people a reason to tune into the convention.  But since the campaign is so disorganized, they could easily change their minds on something like this.  Tongue


Both major conventions always get lots of viewership in the parts that actually matter: First Lady's Speech, VP Speech, Nominee Speech.

But Trump wants to get people to watch more than usual (hence, all the talk of turning it into a reality show-type spectacle).  Waiting until the convention to announce the VP choice is one way to do that.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Manafort: Trump VP will probably be white male on: May 30, 2016, 12:04:29 am
The Trump campaign people were previously saying that they wanted to wait until the convention to announce the running mate, because it would give people a reason to tune into the convention.  But since the campaign is so disorganized, they could easily change their minds on something like this.  Tongue
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Manafort: Trump VP will probably be white male on: May 29, 2016, 09:44:34 pm
Clinton to do a campaign fundraising appearance with Booker:

link

Rubio reiterates that he doesn't want to be Trump's running mate:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-rubio-idUSKCN0YK0NZ

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"I wouldn't be the right choice for him," Rubio said in an extensive interview with CNN's "State of the Union" program. "Donald deserves to have a vice president - he's earned the nomination - and he deserves to have a running mate that more fully embraces some of the things he stands for."
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: May 29, 2016, 09:35:44 pm
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/marco-rubio-campaign-223696

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Marco Rubio may run for office again “one day.”

The Florida senator sat down for a lengthy interview with Jake Tapper for CNN’s "State of the Union" on Sunday to discuss the missteps of his failed presidential campaign.

“I’ll learn from this,” Rubio said. “And whether I run for president again one day or run for something else or do this in the business world, there are lessons I will take from this that will make me stronger and better as a result.”
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Manafort: Trump VP will probably be white male on: May 29, 2016, 07:25:02 pm
Someone on the PredictIt forum noted that trumpcorker.com redirects to Trump's campaign website.  Though it could just be a squatter trying to drive up Corker's share price in the futures markets.  I don't know why the campaign would buy trumpcorker.com, and not do the same for other short listers, unless an announcement was imminent.  And I don't see an announcement being imminent.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Manafort: Trump VP will probably be white male on: May 29, 2016, 07:21:47 pm
Is there any actual information that suggests Webb might be Trump's running mate?

Nope.  I mean, they've been saying that it'll likely go to someone with experience in Congress, so I guess Webb qualifies on that front, but no reason to think it'd be him as opposed to any of the actual Republican members of Congress whose names have been floated.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Johnson: Over/Under Nader 2000? on: May 29, 2016, 07:17:06 pm
Almost certainly Johnson will get the best result ever for a Libertarian presidential candidate, but unless he can get a major funding source, it's doubtful he crack 2%, much less 2.74%

I really see it as a question of media coverage moreso than money.  (Though, yes, of course, the two are related, and if Johnson had a huge pot of $, he could gain more media coverage.)  Nader broke through in media coverage in 2000, and the media actually talked about him as a (niche) third choice.  Saturday Night Live had jokes about Nader's run during the fall of 2000, and it's not like they had to stop and explain the fact that he was a 3rd party candidate for president or anything.  People knew that he was running.

Does Johnson break through in the media world enough that people will know who he is this time?  It's more likely than last time, but I'm still skeptical.  If Romney and Bill Kristol and Erick Erickson and other #NeverTrumpers actually endorsed him, then yes, he would start getting coverage.  But I don't see that happening.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Good Lord, He's Serious About This on: May 29, 2016, 07:08:30 pm



I don't even know what to say about this campaign anymore!

Looks like their graphics department had serious issues trying to count to 15.  Are the other 5 states hidden?
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: DWPERRYWATCH on: May 29, 2016, 06:58:44 pm
Does this make Perry the candidate of angry women?
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Poll: How did you guys find this forum? on: May 29, 2016, 06:55:46 pm
I was looking for a list of all the latest state polls in the 2004 presidential election, and found Atlas.  When I started exploring the site, I realized that there was a forum.
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