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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What do I need to know about Australia? on: August 31, 2016, 07:39:52 pm
I've got a three year fellowship in Australia (in the Sydney metro area) that'll start in a few months....basically, as soon as I can sort  out the paperwork, and organize the move.

*bump*

Well, I was planning on being in Australia for three years, but it ended up being about eight years.  (Anything interesting happen in the Obama administration while I was gone?)  I'm back in the US now, presumably for good.  Currently in MN, but that's just temporary, and I'll likely move somewhere else within the borders of this country within the next few months.
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What was your favorite Beet freakout? on: August 31, 2016, 05:43:49 pm
The Fukushima one was the GOAT, but "Sarah Palin is GUARANTEED to be the nominee in 2012, and a strong bet in the general too, so stop discussing the election now" was a personal favorite too.

A Beet classic:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=120374.msg2600706#msg2600706

Quote
Do any of these candidates get any grassroots support, i.e., if you browse on sites like Free Republic or RedState, are there people who passionately support them? I'm really grasping at straws here to explain Morden's behavior in posting all these threads, when the nominee is so obviously Palin. Show me some grassroots support for someone else and it might seem to make some sense.

EDIT: I like how later in the thread, when I said something along the lines of "Hey, everyone thought McCain was finished a couple of months before Iowa in the '08 race, so how can you claim to know who's going to be the 2012 GOP nominee 18 months in advance?" his response was that "We are entering a period where politics will be very deterministic", and so things that used to be unpredictable have now become very predictable.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: August 31, 2016, 01:25:00 pm
WaPo reports on Kasich's trip to New Hampshire earlier this week:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/kasich-back-in-new-hampshire-with-nostalgia-eye-on-future/2016/08/30/6216616c-6e81-11e6-993f-73c693a89820_story.html

Quote
Kasich is ribbing reporters for speculating about a 2020 candidacy — but he’s hinting at interest.

“You know anything’s possible,” he told The Associated Press on Sunday. “But if I said too much my wife not might let me move back in when I get home from New Hampshire.”
4  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update for Everyone IV - Hungover on: August 31, 2016, 10:13:33 am
In all seriousness a thread to help investigate disappearances would be good - I'm slightly worried about people like Californiadreaming, evergreen, and CXSmith as well (although Classic can very easily confirm than Smith is alright)

That's crazy and terrifying, what the hell

If I disappear suddenly please assume I am lying dead in an abandoned warehouse on the docks.

If I ever go two weeks straight without posting here, assume that the trauma of my moderation duties has sent me to an early grave.  I hope you'll all hold a memorial service for me, should this unlikely event ever occur.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of LittleBigPlanet on: August 31, 2016, 09:32:42 am
Barely coherent, and being Swedish isn't an an excuse because we've had many Swedish posters with perfectly fine English.

If you look at the time he posts at he clearly lives on the east coast US

As far as I can tell, he is legit posting from Sweden.  Either that, or he's going to a lot of trouble to fool us into thinking he's posting from Sweden.

Similar situation with Egalitt: Either he's posting from Russia, or he's going to a lot of trouble to fool us into thinking so.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: August 31, 2016, 08:49:10 am
Rubio refuses to promise to serve a full six year term, should he be reelected, which once again suggests that he's eyeing another run for president in 2020, assuming Clinton wins this time:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/marco-rubio-wont-commit-6-year-term-227539
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Mr. Morden on: August 31, 2016, 08:40:42 am
Such a great guy that it hurts

Tell me about it.  I feel great pain every day due to how amazing I am.  I really should get a doctor to prescribe something for that.  Sad
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How credible is the "Shy Trump voter" theory on: August 30, 2016, 09:17:03 pm
As far as I can tell, everyone who thinks there's some kind of shy Trump voter effect is basing the theory on hunches.  Does anyone want to point to any actual evidence that something like this exists?  Perhaps using recent statewide elections in the USA with "controversial" candidates as examples?  You can't just jump on a theory like this based on a hunch.  Ideally, if you think something like this is going on, you should explain other cases where it manifested itself, and then explain why it applies in this election as well.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 Model Megathread on: August 30, 2016, 08:06:13 pm
Iowa seems strange to me. 50/50 in nowcast, but in Polls Only Hillary is at 60 and in Polls Plus Hillary is at 53. Seems very strange to say if the election were held today it is a total tossup, yet, somehow JUST USING POLLS, Hillary has a 60% shot on election day??? thoughts?
Polls Only model is not aggresive. On the election you in generelly don't give any weight at all for polls older than say 5-6 days. Simplied.
I'm not following. Polls Only model is based on ONLY POLLS. Are you saying Polls Only uses different polls than Nowcast? I would think if polls show if election were TODAY the results are 50/50, but if we wait 2 months, Hillary is more likely to win, something doesn't really make sense. I could deal with 53% or something like that, but 60% is pretty significantly different, no?

The polls being used are the same, but the weights they’re given are different.  If the election were today, then polls that are just coming out would be weighted much more heavily than those from two weeks ago.  Whereas if the election is 10 weeks from now, then, well, there’s no reason to weight polls from 10 weeks before the election *that* much more than polls 12 weeks before the election.
10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas forum leaderboard on: August 30, 2016, 08:01:50 pm
Apparently I've joined the exclusive club of those with 30,000 or more posts.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How credible is the "Shy Trump voter" theory on: August 30, 2016, 07:56:52 pm
The "shy X voter" theory always pops up as a reason why we should believe robo-polls and internet polls more than live interview polls.  The argument is that people might lie to a live person on the phone, but not to a voice recording.  However, I haven't seen any actual evidence that line interview phone polls are less accurate.  If anything, the evidence suggests that they're *more* accurate.  So why should we stop believing them now?

I think there will be a point of 2 of Shy Trump voters, but there will also be a point or two of Shy non-native English speakers for Clinton.

Do you really mean "shy" non-native English speakers in the sense of not wanting to admit who they vote for, a la the "shy Trump voter" theory?  Or are you talking about voters who simply aren't reached by English-only polls in the first place?
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of TexasGurl on: August 30, 2016, 01:25:56 pm

I forgot how weird Jso was:

I think we could have a future together.  Assuming, of course, she prefers married, fat, homely and middle aged men with kids. 

Yeah, I get laid a lot.  Wink
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Ladbrokes 2020 presidential betting odds on: August 29, 2016, 05:32:26 pm
Ladbrokes is already giving probabilities for who’ll be elected president in 2020:

http://www.betbreakingnews.com/betmod-item/18087/

Clinton 40.0
Trump 14.3
Ryan 5.9
Cruz 4.8
Kaine 4.8
Rubio 3.8
Sanders 2.9
Kasich 2.9
Pence 2.9
Cotton 2.9
Sasse 2.0
Booker 2.0
Kanye West 0.5

Hmmm….they should offer a contract on Elizabeth Warren.  Sure she’ll be on the old side.  But if Trump wins this time (and the fact that they’ve got him at 14.3% to win in 2020 suggests that they’re giving him a respectable shot in 2016) then she’s an early frontrunner for the 2020 Dem. nomination.
14  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Recent bans on: August 29, 2016, 03:27:41 pm
Misour: banned
The Advocate and Progcon: banned for being sock accounts of Misour

Do you mean Misoir instead of Misour.

Yes, sorry.  I meant Misoir.
15  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Recent bans on: August 29, 2016, 02:40:40 pm
Misour: banned
The Advocate and Progcon: banned for being sock accounts of Misour
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will come in third place in each state? on: August 29, 2016, 12:37:01 pm
While I don't expect Johnson, Stein, or McMullin to finish in the top two in any state, what about individual counties, or individual cities/towns/villages?  Are there any where we expect either Clinton or Trump to finish outside the top two?  Or do we have to go down to the precinct level?


Did Perot win any counties in 1996? I think not right? That'd seem like a decent benchmark since the race is likely to be roughly something like that year.

No, I don't think he won any counties, but I'm wondering more about coming in second.  Did Perot come in second in any counties in '96, and might Johnson (or another 3rd party candidate) be able to pull that off this time as well?
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will come in third place in each state? on: August 29, 2016, 11:25:48 am
While I don't expect Johnson, Stein, or McMullin to finish in the top two in any state, what about individual counties, or individual cities/towns/villages?  Are there any where we expect either Clinton or Trump to finish outside the top two?  Or do we have to go down to the precinct level?
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will come in third place in each state? on: August 29, 2016, 11:23:16 am
It is important to note that Stein did beat Johnson in DC in 2012.

True, but #NeverTrumpers are overrepresented among the few Republicans living in DC, so I'd assume that they'll boost Johnson's numbers there enough to beat Stein this time.
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas forum leaderboard on: August 29, 2016, 09:42:52 am
I also think Kal just moved into #10 on top topic starters.

It also looks like BRTD retook the #1 spot on that list some time either late last year or early this year.  I remember Tender Branson was the leading topic starter for a while, but this archived version of the page from Christmas Eve of last year:

link

shows BRTD just two topics behind Tender at that time, and it looks like he caught up shortly thereafter.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas forum leaderboard on: August 28, 2016, 10:35:10 pm
Antonio hits the 40,000 mark:

1) BRTD 77,522
2) Al 60,479
3) Lewis 58,620
4) Phil 52,851
5) opebo 47,130
6) Kal 43,527
7) Eraserhead 41,803
8 ) Tender 40,146
9) Antonio 40,019
10) Lief 39,878


How soon until Tender or Antonio passes Eraserhead at current race? And who's in 11th/12th/13th?

Antonio's made over 1000 posts in the past month, while Eraserhead's under 100.  So Antonio should pass both Tender and Eraserhead and reach 7th place within the next two months, *if* he keeps going at his current pace.

Xahar, Jfern, and Grumps are 11th, 12th, and 13th place.  If Jfern came back and starting posting as much as he did before he left, he could catch up to Lief at #10.  But Xahar and Grumps don't post enough these days to reach the top ten.  (Xahar was in the top ten, but got bumped out by Antonio.)  I don't really see anyone new reaching the top ten within the next year unless Jfern returns.
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas forum leaderboard on: August 28, 2016, 07:29:09 pm
Antonio hits the 40,000 mark:

1) BRTD 77,522
2) Al 60,479
3) Lewis 58,620
4) Phil 52,851
5) opebo 47,130
6) Kal 43,527
7) Eraserhead 41,803
8 ) Tender 40,146
9) Antonio 40,019
10) Lief 39,878
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: This is how mega coattails works on: August 27, 2016, 11:42:09 am
And who do you think was driving that Amtrak?


(As you've probably guessed, the extra coattails are packed in those donut boxes he's carrying.)

Biden's so desperate to keep the coattails coming that he's taken to bribing Amtrak with billions of dollars:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/26/politics/joe-biden-amtrak-loan/index.html
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: August 27, 2016, 11:16:52 am
Having said that, if Trump loses in an epic landslide, it is possible that the GOP learns its lesson and turns to someone like Kasich (similar to the Democrats' mea culpa after getting their butt kicked by Nixon, Reagan, and HW Bush, and turned to a moderate southern democrat who wanted to move the party to the center). 

I'm honestly not sure that it's possible for parties to "learn their lesson" on who to nominate in the primary era.  The prototypical example people talk about is the Dems nominating Bill Clinton in '92, which was a move to the center after folks like Mondale and Dukakis.  But I think that was more just an accident of the primary calendar and who Clinton's competition was, plus credit to Clinton's own exceptional political skills.  If a heavyweight like Cuomo had run, then there's a good chance that Clinton would have lost.  Likewise, if Jesse Jackson had run again, then, like in '84 and '88, he would have sucked up black votes in the South, and diluted the strong Southern vote for Clinton.

I think "learning your lesson" can help the discontents make peace with the nominee once he's been nominated.  If the Republicans nominated Kasich in 2020, then the right flank of the party might mute their criticism of him during the general election campaign, because they're desperate to win after 12 years of Democratic presidents.  But would they be any more likely to nominate him in the first place?  Probably not.
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of TexasGurl on: August 26, 2016, 04:11:07 pm

That "u" in "TexasGurl" makes it confusing.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Paul LePage leaves expletive-filled voicemail for state lawmaker. on: August 26, 2016, 02:15:38 pm
This topic has been moved to U.S. General Discussion.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=244406.0
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