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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Why do so many here greatly overestimate the power of DNC Chairman? on: Today at 12:06:46 am
On the 2016 primary debate issue, there's really nobody forcing the candidates to agree to the DNC sanctioned debates in the first place.  In 1999, Bush was way ahead in the polls, and refused to participate in any debates until December, just a month and a half before Iowa.  If the DNC had scheduled 20 debates and started them in April or May of 2015, Clinton would have just skipped them anyway.

And there was nothing stopping Clinton, Sanders, and all the other candidates from ditching the DNC debates altogether and just agreeing to a debate schedule of their own making.  Except that, again, Clinton wouldn't have gone along with many more (and earlier debates), and no one would have watched debates without the frontrunner.  So she was always going to have a good deal of leverage on this issue, regardless of what the DNC decided.

I would make an exception for the simple fact that you need to recruit candidates in tough seats in the first place to allow for circumstances to provide such a wave but both Perez and Ellison campaigned on doing exactly that, so...

How much of a role does the DNC even play in such recruitment?  Isn't that more of a task for the DCCC and DSCC?
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CPAC Straw Poll: Trump at 86% Approval on: February 25, 2017, 11:46:34 pm
Keep in mind this was a de-fanged CPAC.  No one from the "Liberty" wing of the party (which used to dominate CPAC) was invited to speak, meaning no Paul and no Amash.  And no Trump-skeptic Republicans like Flake or Sasse.  It was basically a Trump pep rally.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey: Most Americans (but not young Repubs) think Russia unfriendly on: February 25, 2017, 06:15:01 pm
All the Republicans saying Russia isn't bad now are the ones fully agreeing with Romney in 2012 when he said the same thing. Guess they have to listen to the strong man and not think for themselves.

I am not sure that’s totally true.  I mean, it’s true that many (most?) of the folks in this poll probably don’t care that much about foreign policy, and will just go along with whatever the party leadership tells them.

But I do think there’s some organic Putin-love on a certain segment of the American right that would exist even in the absence of Trump.  As Peter Beinart put it, the split on the right over Russia centers around whether one is an “ideological” or “civilizational” conservative:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/12/the-conservative-split-on-russia/510317/

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To understand this shift, it’s worth distinguishing two different strains of conservative foreign-policy thinking during the cold war. Civilizational conservatives like Jerry Falwell and Pat Buchanan saw the cold war as a struggle between two countries defined primarily by their view of God: The Judeo-Christian United States versus the atheistic Soviet Union. Ideological conservatives like Paul Wolfowitz and Elliot Abrams, by contrast, saw the cold war as a conflict between two countries defined primarily by their view of government: the liberty-loving United States versus the totalitarian USSR. (A third group, composed of realists like Henry Kissinger and George Kennan, saw the cold war as a traditional great power conflict between two countries defined primarily by their geopolitical heft.)
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Trump also broke with his establishment rivals by taking a softer line on Russia. Maybe financial interests motivated him. Maybe he just likes authoritarian tough-guys. Whatever the reason, the deviation seemed politically dangerous given the overwhelming hostility to Putin among GOP foreign-policy elites. But Trump’s pro-Putin line hasn’t hurt him. In fact, Republicans as a whole have grown markedly less anti-Russian since 2014.

Partly, they’re aping Trump. But there’s something deeper at work. Ideological conservatives loathe Putin because he represents an authoritarian challenge to the American-backed order in Europe and the Middle East. But many civilizational conservatives, who once opposed the Soviet Union because of its atheism, now view Putin’s Russia as Christianity’s front line against the new civilizational enemy: Islam. Among the alt-right, Putin is a very popular man. He’s popular because he resists the liberal, cosmopolitan values that Muslims supposedly exploit to undermine the West. Richard Spencer, who was until recently married to a pro-Putin Russian writer, has called Russia the “sole white power in the world.” Matthew Heimbach, another prominent figure in the alt-right, recently told Business Insider that “Russia is the leader of the free world.” In 2013, Pat Buchanan penned a column entitled, “Is Vladimir Putin a paleoconservative? In the culture war for mankind’s future, is he one of us?”
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump skipping White House Correspondents Dinner on: February 25, 2017, 06:05:43 pm
Apparently, the last time a president skipped this was Reagan in 1981, and that was only because he'd been shot.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Why do so many here greatly overestimate the power of DNC Chairman? on: February 25, 2017, 05:47:16 pm
As far as I can tell, some actually believe that DWS tilted the 2016 nomination in some meaningful way towards Clinton, and are afraid that Perez will likewise tilt the 2020 nomination towards another "establishment" candidate.

This raises another pet peeve of mine, which is that many folks here seem to think that the national parties recruit presidential candidates, and thereby determine who runs for president in the first place.  I actually remember during primary season, someone suggested that Priebus must have recruited Fiorina to run because it would look bad for the party if there wasn't a woman in the race on the Republican side.

I'm sorry, but that's bananas.  Neither the national party committee nor party chairman "recruits" anyone to run for president.  That's not to say that there aren't gatekeepers.  There are indeed big money donors who are gatekeepers of a sort, and I presume they told Andrew Cuomo and Amy Klobuchar and whoever else that they shouldn't run in 2016 because Clinton was the anointed establishment candidate.  But those big money donors operate outside of the DNC, and they would exist regardless of what the DNC was doing.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Trump primary challenge odds on: February 25, 2017, 05:26:29 pm
What is the relative probability of these six scenarios?:

1) Trump is no longer president by the time of the 2020 Iowa caucuses
2) Trump is still president in 2020, but is not running for reelection, at least by the time the primaries start
3) Trump runs for a second term in 2020, but fails to win the Republican nomination
4) Trump runs and is re-nominated, but with less than 65% of the nationwide Republican primary vote
5) Trump runs and is re-nominated, with 65-85% of the nationwide Republican primary vote
6) Trump runs and is re-nominated, with more than 85% of the nationwide Republican primary vote

For context, keep in mind that Obama got 89% of the 2012 Democratic primary vote, while running against complete nobodies.  So one would think that for any primary challenger of any real consequence whatsoever, holding Trump to under 85% shouldn’t be *that* difficult.

Also for context, the last “major” primary challenger to a sitting president was Buchanan in 1992, and that one was:

Bush 73%
Buchanan 23%
everyone else 4%
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Mark Cuban for the Democrats? on: February 25, 2017, 04:32:24 pm
Cuban comes out against the universal basic income:

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/22/mark-cuban-basic-income-worst-response-to-job-losses-from-robots-ai.html
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: February 25, 2017, 04:18:19 pm
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 16-19:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e4-dc17-a57a-f6fc0d810002
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e2-d5b6-a35f-fef795640001

approve 49%
disapprove 44%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +4
Northeast: -2
South: +11
West: -3

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +14
blacks: -56
Hispanics: +4

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +2
$50-100k: +10
over $100k: +4

6% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

That has to a typo on your part or a typo on  "Morning Consult Polling"(s) part because there is no way Trump is at +4 approval with Hispanics. His disapproval with Hispanics are in the negative mid 40-low 50's with Hispanics in other polls on here.

Their writeup has the following breakdown for Hispanics:

strongly approve 22%
somewhat approve 28%
somewhat disapprove 13%
strongly disapprove 33%

So the totals are:
approve 50%
disapprove 46%

Their Hispanic sample is 180 people so MoE is of course quite large.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: February 25, 2017, 02:36:50 pm
Clinton also addressed the DNC Winter Meeting via video:

http://www.inquisitr.com/4011242/hillary-clintons-video-message-to-democrats-sparks-2020-rumors-video/

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Clinton’s message was essentially a political pep talk addressed to supporters and Democrats attending the Democratic National Committee (DNC) gathering in Atlanta, Georgia, where the party will elect new leaders.

Her message, viewed against the backdrop of recent tweets, has sparked rumors that she could be eyeing a third presidential run in 2020. But despite the speculation in some circles, the message was primarily about party unity and the need to focus on winning next year’s midterm elections.

While many, including her supporters, are skeptical of suggestions that Clinton plans to run for president again in 2020, most observers agree that her latest video message suggests that she plans to recover from the disappointment of defeat to pursue a post-2016 political career.

In the video message, Clinton, looking upbeat, highlighted recent protests and anti-Trump demonstrations, including the highly successful women’s marches, the protests at airports across the country against President Donald Trump’s Muslim ban and protests at town halls against the threat of repeal of the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: February 25, 2017, 01:25:16 pm
Sunday morning talk show watch:

Tomorrow morning, Hickenlooper will be on Meet the Press, Kasich will be on Face the Nation, Sanders will be on State of the Union, and McAuliffe will be on Fox News Sunday:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NEWS_SHOWS?SITE=AP
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: February 25, 2017, 12:49:21 pm
NBC/Survey Monkey:

Net Approve: 43%
Strongly Approve - 25%
Somewhat Approve - 18%

Net Disapprove: 54%
Somewhat Disapprove - 11%
Strongly Disapprove - 43%

I posted that poll three days ago.  Tongue

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252808.msg5537375#msg5537375
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: February 25, 2017, 12:01:18 pm
Kander spoke at the DNC Winter Meeting:

https://twitter.com/JasonKander/status/835504596055375874
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: White House Asks Reports on Trump-Russia Ties to Be Knocked Down, FBI Says No on: February 25, 2017, 10:04:47 am
The White House acknowledges that this conversation took place:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/24/donald-trump-russia-reince-priebus-fbi-talks-james-comey

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The White House has confirmed that its chief of staff spoke with top FBI officials about the bureau’s inquiry into links between Donald Trump’s associates and Russia – a conversation which appears to violate justice department rules to ensure the integrity of investigations.

The administration had sought to push back against reports from CNN and the Associated Press that the chief of staff, Reince Priebus, had asked the FBI’s top two officials to rebut news reports about Trump allies’ ties to Russia.

But in doing so, the White House on Friday acknowledged that Priebus, the FBI director, James Comey, and deputy director, Andrew McCabe, had discussed what the FBI knew about Russian ties to the Trump presidential campaign.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: PPP National Poll: Trump +1 against Mark Cuban on: February 25, 2017, 09:57:19 am
Who the hell is Mark Cuban?

Billionaire owner of the Dallas Mavericks who has a long-running feud with Trump, and backed Hillary Clinton in last year's election.  Had previously said that he would never run for office, but last week said "we will see" when asked about a 2020 run:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=233345.msg5523862#msg5523862

He's an Independent who's thought to be libertarian-ish, so it's really not clear that he'd run as a Democrat.  He might just go 3rd party.  Last week he wore a #46 jersey (as in president #46, after Trump who's the 45th president) to the NBA celebrity all-star game, though there's a good chance that was just meant to troll people (or maybe Trump specifically) after the media speculation about him running for president:


15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will be the Republican nominee? on: February 25, 2017, 12:39:01 am
I'm surprised that so many people are fairly certain that Trump will be on the ballot in 2020. I think he'll resign before then.

I'm not certain he'll be the nominee, no.  But more likely than Pence?  Yes.
16  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Statement regarding hate speech on: February 24, 2017, 05:38:49 pm
Dave has been alerted.  As in, I’ve sent him an email explaining the ag situation, and added that to list of requested mod changes I sent him last week.  When will he act on it?  I don’t know.  Sometimes he responds quickly, and sometimes it takes months.  The Leip works in mysterious ways.

But Dave is the only person who can add or subtract moderators, so there's really nothing that can be done until Dave responds to said email.

Fun facts:

-The last time I got an email from Dave about anything moderation-related was last summer, when he swapped around some board assignments, including adding TexasGurl.

-The last time he posted on the mod board was in April of last year.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico: Republicans “trying to make Warren the face of the Democratic Party” on: February 24, 2017, 04:32:04 pm
Warren has started fundraising off of this:

http://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/02/elizabeth_warren_fundraises_of.html

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Warren blasted out a fundraising email on Friday saying she appears to be the "new villain of choice for the Republican Party."

"Look, I'm a big girl. My feelings won't be hurt when Mitch McConnell tells me to shut up - or by a bunch of nasty ads that make me look like a zombie or the boogeyman or the Wicked Witch of Massachusetts," she wrote, referencing McConnell, the Senate majority leader, and his effort to use Senate rules to prevent her from reading a letter by Coretta Scott King opposing Jeff Sessions for a federal judgeship.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French presidential election, April 23rd & May 7th, 2017 on: February 24, 2017, 03:51:30 pm
Macron’s been surging on Betfair, and Fillon’s now down to 3rd place:

Macron 39.7
Le Pen 29.2
Fillon 26.0
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich-Trump beer summit on Friday on: February 24, 2017, 03:27:18 pm
Video of Kasich speaking to the press after the Trump meeting:

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/835219924687683585

More here:

http://wkbn.com/2017/02/24/gov-john-kasich-to-meet-with-president-trump-friday/
http://www.9and10news.com/story/34597487/the-latest-kasich-says-he-feels-no-animosity-toward-trump

Quote
The governor says he shared his ideas on potential changes to former President Barack Obama's health care law. Ohio was among 31 states that expanded Medicaid under the law and Kasich says Trump "listened very carefully to what I had to say about it and had a very positive response."

Quote
Kasich said he met with the President to “help my country” and that the meeting was cordial.
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Kasich said he will continue to be outspoken with the President on about issues he doesn’t agree saying “I had a mother who taught me to stand on my own two feet and speak out, and I never meant any of the times to be personal in my criticisms or concerns.”
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: February 24, 2017, 02:55:29 pm
de Blasio is headed to Atlanta this weekend for the DNC Winter Meeting.  In the meantime though, he just spent over four hours talking to prosecutors in Manhattan, as part of the fundraising probe:

http://www.newsday.com/news/new-york/de-blasio-to-be-questioned-by-feds-on-fundraising-reports-say-1.13170930

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New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and federal corruption prosecutors met for four-plus hours Friday in a Manhattan law office for an unusual sit-down in which the mayor answered questions related to a long-running criminal probe of his fundraising, a person familiar with the situation said.

De Blasio, who agreed to speak to prosecutors voluntarily and without immunity at the midtown law firm of his defense lawyer, Barry Berke, arrived inside a black police-driven SUV that pulled up at a loading dock just after 9 a.m. amid a swarm of reporter, and departed shortly before 2 p.m.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will be the speakers at the 2017 Conservative Political Action Commitee? on: February 24, 2017, 02:21:44 pm
No presidential preference question at this year's straw poll:

https://twitter.com/AliABCNews/status/835196914693963776
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: February 24, 2017, 01:51:10 pm
That Politico story mentioned two names that haven’t gotten much attention so far: McAuliffe and Merkley.  But it’s worth mentioning that Merkley was in Iowa last fall, and McAuliffe made multiple early primary state visits in 2015/2016.

Merkley stumped for Clinton in Iowa in October:

https://www.facebook.com/JeffMerkleyOregon/posts/1332092036809884

And well before that, McAuliffe was in South Carolina in April 2015 to stump for Hillary Clinton:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/mcauliffe-finds-himself-back-in-campaign-mode-for-hillary-clinton/2015/04/19/98640098-e634-11e4-81ea-0649268f729e_story.html?utm_term=.bd598ade45a0

then in New Hampshire in August 2015 to do the same:

http://www.nh1.com/news/virginia-gov-terry-mcauliffe-visits-nh-to-support-clinton/

then in Iowa in January 2016 to do the same:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/mcauliffe-to-campaign-for-hillary-clinton-in-iowa/2016/01/04/a17c3f38-b2fd-11e5-a76a-0b5145e8679a_story.html?utm_term=.8169880a829d

then in Iowa again in July of last year for the NGA summer meeting:

http://wtop.com/virginia/2016/07/mcauliffe-to-travel-to-iowa-for-conference/
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: February 24, 2017, 12:41:03 pm
Ipsos/Reuters national poll, conducted Feb. 17-21:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=16437

approve 45%
disapprove 50%
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump's first address to Congress - Feb. 28 on: February 24, 2017, 12:39:35 pm


Amash beat you to that analogy:

https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/828000261704675328
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey: Most Americans (but not young Repubs) think Russia unfriendly on: February 24, 2017, 12:12:30 pm
PPP’s new national poll:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_22417.pdf

“Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Russia?”

favorable 12%
unfavorable 61%
not sure 27%

“Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Vladimir Putin?”

favorable 8%
unfavorable 73%
not sure 19%

%age of Trump, Clinton, Johnson, and Stein voters with a favorable opinion of Russia:
Trump: 23%
Clinton: 6%
Johnson: 3%
Stein: 8%

%age of Trump, Clinton, Johnson, and Stein voters with a favorable opinion of Putin:
Trump: 20%
Clinton: 0%
Johnson: 0%
Stein: 3%
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