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December 09, 2016, 04:20:14 pm
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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2017/2018 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread on: Today at 04:14:20 pm

Update from that link:

Quote
Update 2:30 p.m. December 9: This story originally suggested Tim Cullen was likely to withdraw from the race due to health problems. Cullen has contacted me to say  “That is 100% not true. I pursue this effort, calling people, meeting with people almost daily… looking to a formal announcement early next year.” Sorry, Tim. My apologies for the error.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: Today at 03:03:33 pm
Apparently, someone (either Warren herself or perhaps someone looking to promote her) has already scooped up the domain name http://elizabethwarren2020.com .  At present it just takes you to her Senate campaign website.  To be clear, her Senate seat is up in 2018, not 2020.  But someone must have realized that 2020 presidential buzz would eventually lead people to check out elizabethwarren2020.com .
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sienna poll: New Yorkers like Cuomo, but are divided on whether he should run for prez on: Today at 02:41:41 pm
Funnily enough, Sienna did almost the exact same type of poll four years ago:

Sienna College poll of New York state voters:

pdf link

favorable/unfavorable
Hillary Clinton 75 / 23%
Cuomo 72 / 21%
Christie 63 / 18%
Gillibrand 61 / 18%
Obama 62 / 36%

[sidenote: Those Christie numbers are amazing.  When was the last time a Republican from out of state had numbers like that in New York???]

Should Clinton run for president in 2016?
yes 54%
no 39%

Should Cuomo run for president in 2016?
yes 39%
no 49%


Christie wasn't included this time.  Would be funny to see just how much he's dropped.

In any case, looks like both Cuomo and Gillibrand aren't quite as popular in NY as they were four years ago.  Yet New Yorkers have become slightly *less* resistant to Cuomo running for president.  Maybe that's just because there's no Hillary Clinton-esque frontrunner at the moment, meaning people are open to there being a crowded field.  Or maybe Cuomo's detractors are just desperate to see him campaigning around the country, so they no longer have to deal with him in Albany.  Tongue
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: Today at 01:55:35 pm
Apparently on Wednesday, Biden updated his 2020-ometer reading to "I have no intention of running" (which is not really a Shermanesque denial):

http://www.rollcall.com/news/biden-no-intention-running-2020

Quote
Biden said earlier Wednesday he does not intend to run for president 2020, two days after declining to rule it out.

“I have no intention of running,” Biden told reporters outside the Senate floor Wednesday evening.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Transition Team/Cabinet Thread on: Today at 12:18:56 pm
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/heidi-heitkamp-in-the-running-for-agriculture-energy-secretary/

Quote
Several transition sources say Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-North Dakota, is in the running for agriculture and energy secretary, but has recently been considered more heavily for the agriculture post. Donald Trump’s team is looking to add more women to the cabinet and enhance the prospects for a stronger Republican majority.

Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry is also being considered for the agriculture post, sources said.

Heitkamp met with Trump on Dec. 1 in Trump Tower. She is up for re-election in 2018.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: Today at 11:18:35 am
Gillibrand is asked about Dean calling her his top choice for 2020.  She says she’s running for reelection in 2018, and “[has] no plans for 2020” (which isn’t exactly a denial):

http://www.niagara-gazette.com/news/local_news/gillibrand-mentioned-among-next-round-of-white-house-hopefuls/article_ad662393-9f96-57bc-9df3-e2bc01f92c22.html

Quote
In a brief interview last week, following a staged photo opportunity at a food bank in suburban Albany, New York's junior senator suggested that she's doing nothing to encourage talk about her aspirations.

Asked about the plug from Dean, Gillibrand said, "Howard Dean is wonderful and an extraordinary leader. I plan to run for re-election in 2018. I really value my job here as senator of New York, and I intend to be senator of New York, and I have no plans for 2020."

An aide then cut off the questioning.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: Today at 09:21:32 am
PPP national poll, conducted Dec. 6-7:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_120916.pdf

fav/unfav %:
Trump 43/51% for -8%
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: December 08, 2016, 10:11:23 pm
O'Malley returning to Iowa:

Quote
This will be O’Malley’s seventh trip to Iowa since the Iowa Caucus.

Seventh since the Iowa caucus?  Sheesh, I didn't realize it was that many.  And most of those came when Clinton was leading Trump in the polls, so O'Malley was figuring...what?  That he'd start laying the groundwork for 2024?

I guess, unlike Booker, Cuomo, Klobuchar, etc., O'Malley doesn't have a job, so he's free to hang out in the early states.


Do you think Amy Klobuchar will run in 2020? I think it's very possible.

As shown in this thread already, she's dropped a lot of hints in the last few years that she's interested.  Sounds like some are speculating that she might run for governor in 2018 though.  If she does that, it means she's probably not going to run for prez in 2020.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Can Trump live past 100? on: December 08, 2016, 09:40:51 pm
This topic has been moved to Political Debate.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=254284.0
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: December 08, 2016, 09:30:58 pm
O'Malley returning to Iowa:

Quote
This will be O’Malley’s seventh trip to Iowa since the Iowa Caucus.

Seventh since the Iowa caucus?  Sheesh, I didn't realize it was that many.  And most of those came when Clinton was leading Trump in the polls, so O'Malley was figuring...what?  That he'd start laying the groundwork for 2024?

I guess, unlike Booker, Cuomo, Klobuchar, etc., O'Malley doesn't have a job, so he's free to hang out in the early states.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio challenge President Trump in 2020? on: December 08, 2016, 09:22:41 pm
Probably not Cruz or Rubio, no.  Amash and McMullin seem more likely to run.
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is the previous poster on the naughty or nice list? on: December 08, 2016, 04:21:12 pm
Nope.  Not on the naughty or nice list.
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: December 08, 2016, 03:53:59 pm
Pew Research: Low approval of Trump’s transition



Here’s the full poll:

http://www.people-press.org/2016/12/08/low-approval-of-trumps-transition-but-outlook-for-his-presidency-improves/

They have Trump’s favorability margin at -21:









Pence also (narrowly) underwater:



Also interesting to me in this poll….the gap between Democrats and Republicans on whether there’s a relationship between Islam and violence is wider than it’s ever been:


14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Your completely subjective odds for the Democratic nomination in 2020 on: December 08, 2016, 02:50:48 pm
^ The democratic party leaders will want an inevitable nominee again. Clinton will not run again, Sanders is anathema to them, Warren is largely viewed as Sanders's successor if Sanders doesn't want to run again, and aside from them, there is only one candidate who can lock up the nomination upon their entrance - and that candidate is Biden.

I don't think Biden can do that, to be honest.  Sure, he'd have strong poll numbers early on simply because of name recognition advantage.  But once other candidates started getting coverage, other folks would gain traction too.

And I'm not sure they do want an inevitable candidate again.  Given that Clinton ended up losing the general election despite running against someone with terrible favorability ratings, they might figure it's better to let folks fight it out for the nomination, rather than anoint someone who may not actually be as strong a candidate as they thought.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: December 08, 2016, 02:46:26 pm
One thing I missed was that in Evan McMullin's concession speech he mentioned 2020:

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/09/2020-evan-mcmullin-calls-conservative-movement.html

McMullin's continued to be critical of Trump since election day, so it wouldn't shock me if he ends up running again in 2020....but this time in the Republican primary.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Your completely subjective odds for the Democratic nomination in 2020 on: December 08, 2016, 02:34:34 pm
I think some people are blowing Biden's comments out of proportion.  Biden tends to blow smoke.  It's what he does.  He makes weird comments all the time.  But people have latched onto his comments this time because it's so early that there's a dearth of 2020ers answering the "Will you run?" question in any direct way.  They mostly change the subject, rather than try to answer.  So when someone does give an answer, we treat it as a bigger deal than it might be.

The way he phrased it on Colbert (“I can’t see the circumstance in which I’d run, but what I learned a long, long time ago, Stephen, is to never say never") sounds sort of like the Al Gore 2008 trial balloon, where I don't think he was really considering it in any serious way, but was reluctant to rule it out definitively because "never say never".

I think, in the end, the age factor makes it really unlikely.  Yes, he'd only be a few years older than Trump, but Trump would be running for a second term rather than a first.  Now maybe if polling showed Biden as the strongest candidate, and if party elites were begging him to run, he would do it, but the latter especially seems unlikely to me.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: December 08, 2016, 02:21:03 pm
Another possible indicator….all of these guys wrote books (in most cases, memoirs) that came out between 2014 and 2016:

Booker
Cuomo
Gillibrand
Hickenlooper
Klobuchar
Warren

Just saying…most US Senators and Governors didn’t come out with books in the last few years, but these folks did.  It’s the sort of thing that could certainly be read as a sign of national ambitions.  In at least some cases, they might have been thinking about running in 2016 should Clinton choose not to run.  But if they thought about running in ’16, then ’20 is presumably a possibility as well.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Transition Team/Cabinet Thread on: December 08, 2016, 01:20:33 pm
Predictit’s current favorites for all of the remaining Cabinet jobs…

State: Mitt Romney
Interior: Cathy McMorris Rodgers
Energy: Rick Perry
Veterans Affairs: Scott Brown
Agriculture: Sonny Perdue

All people who’ve held some significant elected office.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Transition Team/Cabinet Thread on: December 08, 2016, 01:16:52 pm
This story says that Rick Perry is now considered the "leading candidate" for Secretary of Energy:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-goes-his-own-way-in-vetting-top-picks-1481155652
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Would Kanye West have a greater effect on 2020 if he runs as Dem or independent? on: December 08, 2016, 12:43:37 pm
Allow me to be brutally honest here for a moment. Kanye is not going to win the Black vote in the Democratic Primary:

1) Black millennials, the segment of the African-American Community most likely to know who West is and care what he has to say, have absolutely terrible turnout.
2) Older Black voters, particularly older Black women, ie the ones who actually vote in Democratic primaries
3) The fact that Kanye is married to a White Woman and lives with a rich White Family in LA is not going to be viewed positively by much of the Black Community, especially the older women who are most likely to actually vote.

Plus, the chances are extremely high that there'll be at least one other black Dem. running (Cory Booker), and maybe more.  Not sure why Kanye West of all people would get more black votes than Booker.
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas forum leaderboard on: December 08, 2016, 12:13:26 pm
It does my heart good to know I'm way behind the top 10 now.  I was a bit too close at one time.

You have over 200 posts in the past month.  If you manage to keep that up, and if Antonio never comes back, then you have a chance of making it into the top 10 one day...though probably not until 2018.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Your completely subjective odds for the Democratic nomination in 2020 on: December 07, 2016, 09:56:36 pm
I'd say Warren is #1 (and the only candidate with a better than 20% chance of being the nominee) and Booker is #2 (possibly the only other candidate besides Warren with a greater than 10% chance of being the nominee).

After that, it's a real mess.  There are many candidates around ~5-10% chance of winning, and I don't know how to rank them.  "Field" is also probably pretty large.

Gillibrand and Klobuchar might be a bit underrated by the conventional wisdom, simply because they look like they might be among the most likely candidates to run, and if Warren happens to pass on running, someone's got to benefit from any "It's time for a woman" sentiment among the Democratic primary electorate.

Sherrod Brown might also be a bit underrated if I actually thought he was going to run.  But he hasn't really done anything to indicate interest yet.
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should I run for Keith Ellison's seat if he resigns? on: December 07, 2016, 08:32:44 pm
Only if your campaign website's "on the issues" page uses a Sneakers O'Toole analogy to go after Trump on civil liberties.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What are your favorite moments of the 2016 cycle? on: December 07, 2016, 06:28:47 pm
Gotta love the time Ben Carson tweeted this map….which has a very unusual take on New England:



Also, the best quote from Ben Carson:

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/25/politics/ben-carson-violent-past-donald-trump/

Quote
"As a teenager, I would go after people with rocks, and bricks, and baseball bats, and hammers. And, of course, many people know the story when I was 14 and I tried to stab someone," Carson said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press."
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Transition Team/Cabinet Thread on: December 07, 2016, 05:48:16 pm
https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/806585325476790272?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Quote
Rep. @cathymcmorris appears to be frontrunner for Secretary of the Interior, @SaraMurray reports
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