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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Climate Change in 2050-2100 Elections on: May 21, 2015, 11:09:01 pm
There was an article on Slate a few years ago speculating that climate change would make the Sunbelt much more uncomfortable to live in, while making the Great Lakes region a comparatively attractive place to live.  If so, then you could see the electoral college drain to the Sunbelt slow down significantly or reverse.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: WA-PPP: Walker leads Rubio, Sanders at 24% on: May 21, 2015, 10:09:21 pm
On the GOP side, who leads among...?
moderates: Huckabee
somewhat conservative: Rubio
very conservative: Walker
age 18-45: Rubio
age 46-65: Walker
age 65+: Rubio

On the Democratic side, the male/female split is interesting:

men:
Clinton 52%
Sanders 31%

women:
Clinton 61%
Sanders 19%

Sanders's best group is the self-described "very liberal", who give him 36% support.  He's only at 19% among "somewhat liberal" voters, and 17% among "moderates".
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Chafee: Clintons "have a long history of gray areas on ethics" on: May 21, 2015, 08:45:06 pm
*bump*

More Chafee on Clinton:

http://kticradio.com/abc_politics/the-dem-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-shouldnt-be-president-and-might-run-against-her-abcid35350319/

Quote
“It’s a long list of ethical misjudgments on behalf of Mrs. Clinton starting back from her time as First Lady and the Rose Law Firm records that were lost and then found. It just seems to never stop. Now, as Secretary of State, the email servers and the Clinton Foundation … it is just a long litany of ethical missteps in my view. And the American people support what I am saying. All of the polls show that there is a lack of trust with Secretary Clinton.”

And on foreign policy:

Quote
“Absolutely. Ever since I announced I was exploring a run for president I have talked about her hawkish approach to the world … based on that same unilateralism, muscular approach that I have compared to the ‘neocons.’ Yes, it a huge a difference between her and I and our approach to the world. Her approach to Iran as to the secretary of state, her approach to Syria, Libya, Russia, Venezuela, it is all very close to the ‘neocon’ approach: muscular, unilateral. I don’t think that is in our long-term best interest. We need a new approach.”

And on Clinton flip-flops:

Quote
“Well certainly, immigration. She is getting a lot of credit for coming out in favor of the Dream Act and the path to citizenship for undocumented Americans. But there was a bill when we were both in the Senate, introduced by John McCain from Arizona and Ted Kennedy from Massachusetts: ‘The McCain-Kennedy Path to Citizenship.’ There were only nine of us in the Senate that then signed on as co-sponsors and I am one of the nine. I sure would have liked to have had her help back then in 2005. Certainly, gay marriage. I have been an early supporter, a consistent supporter of marriage equality. So, whether it is flip-flop or coming late to the issue, I think it’s very similar.”
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: May 21, 2015, 08:37:01 pm
Chafee says he's more than 95% likely to run, and that he'll announce "before mid-June":

http://www.nh1.com/news/steinhauser-chafee-criticizes-clinton-says-hes-almost-100-certain-to-run-for-wh/
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP announces 12 debates on: May 21, 2015, 05:50:24 pm
Damn, only 5 debates in 2015? Well, it's gonna be essential viewing, that's for sure. Here's hoping that Trump, Cruz, Perry and Carson will make the cut. Although it's gonna be hard to compete with Cain, Bachmann, Perry, Gingrich, Ron Paul, etc. for pure entertainment value.

Carson and Cruz at least should qualify, barring some kind of campaign collapse.  I don't know how they're going to deal with Trump.  Few of the pollsters include him.  But when they do include him, he polls at ~5% or so, which should be enough to qualify.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee to skip Iowa straw poll on: May 21, 2015, 05:46:48 pm
Michele Bachmann practically destroyed all credibility it had by winning it last year.

It does feel like we have a presidential election every year, doesn't it?
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP announces 12 debates on: May 21, 2015, 06:22:04 am
Based on the last paragraph of this story:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/fox-new-gop-debate-candidates-118152.html?hp=c1_3

it sounds like it's possible that Fox will discount internet polls and/or robo-dial polls.  Which means both YouGov and PPP might be out.  So we'd be left with Fox, CNN, NBC/WSJ, Quinnipiac, etc.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP announces 12 debates on: May 21, 2015, 12:02:22 am
More details on the first two debates:

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/us-election-2016-facebook-fox-news-partner-first-republican-primary-debate-1502272

Debate 1: Aug. 6th in Cleveland, broadcast on Fox News Channel, moderators to include Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly and Chris Wallace.  Facebook will be partnering with Fox to provide "data on top issues to be debated on by candidates".

Quote
A statement released by Fox News revealed the criteria for the first presidential debate. The network will allow contenders who place in the top 10 of the five most recent polls by 4 August. According to AdWeek, that does not mean the debate would necessarily be capped at 10 contenders.

Debate 2: Sept. 16th at the Reagan Library in California, broadcast on CNN:

Quote
CNN, which will be hosting the second debate on 16 September, will split it into two, according to the Washington Post. The first will feature the top 10 candidates in recent polls, while the second will include candidates who achieve at least 1% in polls.

The CNN debate will be hosted at the Ronald Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California and will require contenders to have a minimum of one paid campaign worker in two of the four early voting states.

Split it into two?  How will that work?  Use the more restrictive criteria for the first hour, and then invite more candidates to the stage for the second hour?
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Anyone with Military service running? on: May 20, 2015, 09:29:58 pm
Webb, Graham, and Perry, I think.  Or am I missing someone?
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Economist/YouGov: D: Clinton 60% Sanders 12%; R: Walker 17% Rubio 12% Carson 11% on: May 20, 2015, 09:28:53 pm
Economist/YouGov poll, conducted May 16-18:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/nm33fk7pqr/econTabReport.pdf

Dems

Clinton 60%
Sanders 12%
Biden 11%
Webb 3%
O'Malley 2%

GOP

Walker 17%
Rubio 12%
Carson 11%
Paul 10%
Huckabee 9%
Bush 7%
Christie 7%
Cruz 4%
Kasich 4%
Fiorina 2%
Perry 2%
Graham 1%
Jindal 1%
Santorum 1%
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: May 20, 2015, 08:50:09 pm
Peter King says that the odds of him running for president are "50/50", and that he'll make a decision by the end of June:

https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/242688-peter-king-50-50-odds-hell-run-in-2016

Quote
Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y.) said Wednesday the odds are "50-50" that he will enter the 2016 presidential race.

"I'm certainly not ruling it out," King said during an appearance on CNN's "Wolf." "Right now I'm sort of 50-50."

King said he intended to make his decision by the end of June.

The hawkish Republican also said he would be undeterred by a potential bid from fellow New Yorker George Pataki, the former GOP governor, who is also weighing a run.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: May 20, 2015, 08:46:44 pm
Bush and Gilmore will both be in New Hampshire again this week:

http://www.necn.com/news/politics/Christie-Bush-Clinton-in-New-Hampshire-This-Week-304133511.html

Then we have the following potential candidates visiting New Hampshire in early June:

http://www.necn.com/news/politics/New-Hampshire-Candidate-Tracker-295977311.html

June 4: Kasich
June 5: Ehrlich
June 6: Webb

Meanwhile, Christie has events in Iowa on both June 6th and 11th:

http://data.desmoinesregister.com/iowa-caucus/candidate-tracker/index.php

And on July 18th, Jindal and Santorum will join some of the already declared candidates for a "Family Leadership Summit" in Ames, Iowa.
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the 2016 Presidential Election Board on: May 20, 2015, 05:50:55 pm
There are something like 70-80 weeks until the election so at this point there is a very fine line between the 2016 board and the Election What-Ifs board.

Ah, but only about 35 weeks until the Iowa caucuses. And only 11 weeks until the first GOP debate.
14  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: U.S. birth rates slide as Millennials enter the age of marriage and childbearing on: May 20, 2015, 08:35:53 am
Above National Average
Below National Average

Top Half Above National Average
Bottom Half Above National Average
Top Half Below National Average
Bottom Half Below National Average






Interesting east-west divide.  Isn't there also an east-west divide in the male-to-female ratio, with the eastern US tilting female, and the western US tilting male?  Is there some relationship between that and the birth rate?  Which also begs the question: Is the birth rate defined as the number of babies born per year per person, or per woman, or per woman within a certain age range, or what?
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: May 20, 2015, 07:47:13 am
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/martin-omalley-2016-presidential-launch-details-118090.html?hp=b2_c1

Quote
Last Thursday, O’Malley held a 13-minute call with donors, supporters and activists from the first three presidential nominating states, pointing to a May 30 announcement in Baltimore and telling them “he is inclined to run for president.” On the call were O’Malley’s political director Karine Jean-Pierre, an alum of Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign, and senior advisor Bill Hyers, who was New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio’s 2013 campaign manager. O’Malley didn’t mention Clinton by name, only saying, as he has in the past, that “history is full of times where the inevitable front-runner is inevitable until they’re no longer inevitable.”

And then we have this:

http://omalleyannouncement.com



Meanwhile, in Biden-world:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/05/19/are-you-ready-for-president-biden.html

Quote
But with Hillary Clinton so dominant in the polls, Biden is hanging back, watching and waiting to see if maybe there’s an opening. He’s telling supporters in the early states that he’ll decide in the next four weeks, or by the end of summer.

He'll decide in the next four weeks or by the end of the summer?  There's a pretty big gap between those two timeframes.
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Say something nice about the 2016 Presidential Election board on: May 20, 2015, 07:38:50 am
Better than U.S. General Discussion.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Pence says he won't run for president in 2016 on: May 20, 2015, 02:05:50 am
Smart man

And we're now down to 19 actual or potential candidates.

Every time a candidate drops out, a piece of this board's soul dies.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would be your criteria for including candidates to the GOP debates? on: May 20, 2015, 12:01:34 am
2% average in the last 3 national polls OR meeting a certain fundraising target (not sure how high)
So now you can buy your way into the GOP debates? Talk about Democracy for sale.

It's a check against the polling companies - this way they can't throw a candidate they universally hate out of the debates who actually should be included by simply not including that candidate in their polls.

The RNC can hire whatever polling companies they like, and tell them which candidates to include.


Polls paid for by the party establishment doesn't work either - they'll exclude Cruz, who is obviously a serious candidate, for being too anti-establishment. Using polling you didn't pay for makes it fair.

What?  Priebus isn't going to exclude Cruz from said poll.

But it doesn't matter.  If the RNC cares about an objective standard for inclusion, then they should just demand a poll that includes all the names, and let the chips fall where they may.  If they *don't* care about an objective standard, then there isn't any need to do polling in the first place.  They can just pick and choose whoever they like.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would be your criteria for including candidates to the GOP debates? on: May 19, 2015, 11:10:41 pm
2% average in the last 3 national polls OR meeting a certain fundraising target (not sure how high)
So now you can buy your way into the GOP debates? Talk about Democracy for sale.

It's a check against the polling companies - this way they can't throw a candidate they universally hate out of the debates who actually should be included by simply not including that candidate in their polls.

The RNC can hire whatever polling companies they like, and tell them which candidates to include.
20  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: May 19, 2015, 08:34:52 pm
After the last episode, Claire McCaskill is done with Game of Thrones:

http://www.vox.com/2015/5/19/8624535/mccaskill-game-of-thrones
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / 2016 candidates in hip hop lyrics on: May 19, 2015, 06:14:42 pm
A must read:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/05/19/hip-hop-has-already-vetted-the-2016-candidates/


22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Pence says he won't run for president in 2016 on: May 19, 2015, 06:07:44 pm
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/indiana-gov-mike-pence-wont-run-for-president-in-2016-118110.html
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will the Republican Nomination Battle Go to the Conventions on: May 19, 2015, 06:04:24 pm
To correct one thing stated by some of you in this thread though, only about 6 or 7 states use true statewide "winner take all" delegate allocation.  Far more of them use "winner take most": which is winner take all by congressional district for most of the delegates, with the remaining delegates based on the statewide total.  Thus, if the vote in a state is really close between two candidates, it's possible for the delegates to be split nearly evenly between them.  But if one candidate is winning by like 10%, he can dominate in the delegate count.

Look at the California GOP primary, for example.  McCain beat Romney 42% to 35%, and won 158 delegates to Romney's 12, because McCain won nearly every congressional district.

In any case, Jonathan Bernstein on why a brokered convention won't happen:

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-23/brokered-convention-s-not-going-to-happen

Quote
This is simple. Winnowing works. Serious candidates who no longer have a realistic chance will drop out; non-serious candidates, under Republican rules, won’t accumulate very many delegates. No more than two or three candidates will survive the invisible primary, plus Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, to get where the actual delegates are.

After that, no one is going to successfully “target a state or two.” That hasn’t been a winning strategy since before 1972, and it doesn’t even work in the "early-ish" states, as Rudy Giuliani learned in Florida in 2008. Sure, if three candidates remain after South Carolina, they won’t invest equal resources in every state, but they’ll essentially be running national campaigns, or else their support will dry up rapidly and they’ll find themselves running no campaign at all.

What’s more, in the very unlikely event that three candidates emerge from the early contests evenly balanced, party actors will be quick to abandon one of them to prevent the chaos of a deadlocked convention. Which leaves two candidates splitting almost all the delegates and no real chance of a deadlocked convention.
24  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Petition to ban BushOklahoma on: May 19, 2015, 05:51:22 pm
Update is continuing via coded messages Bushie sends through his username changes.
25  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Recent bans on: May 19, 2015, 05:49:06 pm
Guys, the mods brainwashed me into deleting my own posts. Just like George Romney.

George Romney deleted his own posts?  That would explain a lot.
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