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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac national: Romney leads Clinton by 1, but she leads all other Repubs on: Today at 10:32:25 am
Demographic breakdown:
White 74% Shocked   LOLOLOLOL
Black 12%
Hispanic 7%

Party ID: R + 1 LOLOLOLOLOL

And Hillary still leads the troll candidates! Glorious news!

It's more than likely that after the catastrophic loss of the Democrats recently, fewer people are now self-ID-ing as "Democrats" and more people say "Indy".

This is backed up with the fact that the party image of the Dem. Party is now a record low (some polls even have the GOP rated slightly more favorable now).

Or it just shows that this is a junk poll! Especially with the ridiculously high white response %

The 2012 exit poll showed 72% of voters being white, so this isn't all that much higher.


The % of the white vote has gone down in every presidential election in the last 20 years. It'll be about 70% in 2016. 74% is a midterm number.

Fine, but you described that as being "ridiculously high".  Ridiculously?  Obviously, in a random sample, individual demographic %ages will fluctuate by a few % one way or the other.  Are you saying that any poll that doesn't nail each demographic subgroup to within 1 or 2% of what you consider the "correct" number is a "junk poll"?
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac national: Romney leads Clinton by 1, but she leads all other Repubs on: Today at 10:11:15 am
Demographic breakdown:
White 74% Shocked   LOLOLOLOL
Black 12%
Hispanic 7%

Party ID: R + 1 LOLOLOLOLOL

And Hillary still leads the troll candidates! Glorious news!

It's more than likely that after the catastrophic loss of the Democrats recently, fewer people are now self-ID-ing as "Democrats" and more people say "Indy".

This is backed up with the fact that the party image of the Dem. Party is now a record low (some polls even have the GOP rated slightly more favorable now).

Or it just shows that this is a junk poll! Especially with the ridiculously high white response %

The 2012 exit poll showed 72% of voters being white, so this isn't all that much higher.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac national poll: D: Clinton 57% Warren 13%; R: Romney 19% Bush 11% on: Today at 09:07:50 am
fav/unfav % among Democrats:
Clinton 92/4% for +88%

fav/unfav % among Republicans:
Romney 78/11% for +67%
Ryan 65/4% for +61%
Huckabee 67/9% for +58%
Bush 63/9% for +54%
Paul 58/6% for +52%
Christie 58/20% for +38%
Cruz 41/9% for +32%
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac national: Romney leads Clinton by 1, but she leads all other Repubs on: Today at 09:01:39 am
Huge gender gap here.  Romney leads Clinton by 16 among men, while she leads him by 13 among women.

fav/unfav %:

Paul 35/26% for +9%
Ryan 36/26% for +8%
Huckabee 36/29% for +7%
Clinton 50/45% for +5%
Christie 38/33% for +5%
Romney 44/42% for +2%
Bush 33/32% for +1%
Cruz 21/29% for -8%
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Quinnipiac national: Romney leads Clinton by 1, but she leads all other Repubs on: Today at 08:57:10 am
Quinnipiac national poll:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2116

Clinton 43%
Christie 42%

Clinton 46%
Paul 41%

Clinton 46%
Huckabee 41%

Clinton 46%
Bush 41%

Clinton 46%
Ryan 42%

Romney 45%
Clinton 44%

Clinton 48%
Cruz 37%
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Quinnipiac national poll: D: Clinton 57% Warren 13%; R: Romney 19% Bush 11% on: Today at 08:51:22 am
Quinnipiac national poll:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2116

Dems

Clinton 57%
Warren 13%
Biden 9%
Sanders 4%
O'Malley 1%
Webb 1%

If Clinton doesn't run….

Biden 34%
Warren 25%
Sanders 6%
O'Malley 2%
Webb 2%

GOP

Romney 19%
Bush 11%
Carson 8%
Christie 8%
Paul 6%
Cruz 5%
Huckabee 5%
Ryan 5%
Walker 5%
Jindal 2%
Kasich 2%
Perry 2%
Rubio 2%
Santorum 1%
Portman 0%

If Romney doesn't run…

Bush 14%
Christie 11%
Carson 9%
Paul 8%
Huckabee 7%
Ryan 7%
Walker 6%
Cruz 5%
Jindal 3%
Perry 3%
Rubio 3%
Kasich 2%
Santorum 2%
Portman 1%
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: Today at 12:04:10 am
Potential GOP candidates with books coming out in the next eight months or so:

http://dailycaller.com/2014/11/25/these-potential-presidential-candidates-have-books-coming-out-next-year/

Rubio: “American Dreams: Restoring Economic Opportunity for Everyone”, Jan. 15 release date
Huckabee: "God, Guns, Grits, and Gravy", Jan. 20 release date
Cruz: [no title yet], May 12 release date
Fiorina: "Rising to the Challenge", unspecified May release date
Paul: “Taking a Stand: Moving Beyond Partisan Politics to Unite America”, June 2 release date

Bush, Carson, Santorum, and Walker already have recent books from the last year or so.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: November 25, 2014, 11:59:17 pm
WaPo on Fiorina's plans:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/carly-fiorina-actively-explores-2016-presidential-run-but-faces-gop-critics/2014/11/25/b317b1a2-74b3-11e4-bd1b-03009bd3e984_story.html

Quote
Sensing an opportunity in a crowded field that lacks a front-runner, the former Hewlett-Packard chief executive is actively exploring a 2016 presidential run. Fiorina has been talking privately with potential donors, recruiting campaign staffers, courting grass-roots activists in early caucus and primary states and planning trips to Iowa and New Hampshire starting next week.
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In June, Fiorina started the Unlocking Potential PAC with a mission of galvanizing female voters and beefing up the GOP’s ground game. The super PAC made modest investments in four Senate races while funding Fiorina’s travel to presidential battlegrounds such as Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire. “She left people wanting more,” said Angie Hughes, the group’s Iowa director. “We did a lot of things that would be helpful to anyone wanting to run for president.”

This month, Fiorina sent handwritten notes to some Iowa activists thanking them for their help with her super PAC and looking forward to “the next phase.”
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will the world see the likes of Lincoln, TR, FDR, Churchill ever again? on: November 25, 2014, 11:27:20 pm
Yes, we will.  An international terrorist organization known as "Cobra" will raid the tombs of great leaders such as those listed above (as well as Julius Caesar, Napoleon Bonaparte, Attila the Hun, etc.), extracting DNA samples which can then be synthesized into a genetically engineered Cobra leader named "Serpentor".  If only Cobra Commander had been more competent, we wouldn't have had to resort to such an extreme remedy.
10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Will Bushie injure himself bowling tonight? on: November 25, 2014, 08:49:43 pm
We will just have our main lead drafter ramrodding the five of us newbies.

Update XX: Ramrodding the newbies
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NYT: Hagel to resign on: November 25, 2014, 08:30:19 pm
So I guess Ashton Carter is now the frontrunner for the job, by process of elimination?
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bill Clinton and Bill Cosby on: November 25, 2014, 06:02:16 pm
And if you think Monica was attracted to Bill Clinton for his looks, imagine how much more she was after he told her he was also President of the United States.

Are we seriously imagining a world where a White House intern had to be told who the President of the United States was? Jesus Christ.

I think you missed the sarcasm font.

There's a sarcasm font?
13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Islamic State vs. The World (except Canada) on: November 25, 2014, 06:07:54 am
Apparently the Iraqi army is so corrupt that many of the weapons supplied by the US just end up getting sold back to Islamic State fighters:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/24/world/middleeast/graft-hobbles-iraqs-military-in-fighting-isis.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=2

Quote
“I told the Americans, don’t give any weapons through the army — not even one piece — because corruption is everywhere, and you will not see any of it,” said Col. Shaaban al-Obeidi of the internal security forces, also a Sunni tribal leader in Anbar Province. “Our people will steal it.”

Iraqi officers and lawmakers, some speaking on the condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak to the media, say that army and police payrolls are still wildly inflated by “ghost soldiers,” either conjured entirely by a superior officer or just splitting a paycheck with a patron instead of showing up for work.

And Iraqi soldiers often charge that they have been furnished with partial supplies and cheaply made weapons because their commanders took kickbacks or skimmed off the savings.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: November 25, 2014, 02:08:59 am
Old new, but I missed it: Trump made a visit to New Hampshire two weeks ago:

http://www.necn.com/news/politics/2016-New-Hampshire-Presidential-Candidate-Tracker-281958331.html

In response to the question of whether he'll run:

http://politics.suntimes.com/article/washington/donald-trump-gonna-look-running-president-2016/mon-11172014-1025am

Quote
"Well, that is correct," Fox host Steve Doocy said. "So are you saying at this point, it looks like you're gonna be running?"

Trump's response?

"Well, I'm gonna look at it," he said. "I'm going to be looking at who's running."

He continued:

"If I decide to run, I think I would be a great president," Trump said.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Do you think Mitt Romney could be the GOP's 2016 nominee? on: November 25, 2014, 12:40:46 am
Strong chance that by the time we get to the "crashing and burning" stage, most of the relevant filing deadlines will have past, and it'll be too late to enter the race.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DNC 2016 finalists chosen on: November 24, 2014, 11:18:18 pm
As noted back in August:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=188192.msg4262067#msg4262067

I think Philly's the frontrunner.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Rand get more votes than Ron? on: November 24, 2014, 10:14:44 pm
This is more or less asking if he'll finish in the top 3.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DNC 2016 finalists chosen on: November 24, 2014, 09:44:50 pm
Note that they also narrowed down the list of options for when to hold it:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/11/24/dnc-announces-three-convention-finalists/

Quote
Dates have yet to be set for the gathering, but the DNC announced Wednesday that it has narrowed that window to the weeks of July 18, July 25, or August 22. A July convention would be significantly earlier than in previous years — in 2012, the convention was held from Sept. 4 to 6 in Charlotte, North Carolina. In 2008, the gathering took place in Denver, Colorado from Aug. 25 to Aug. 28.

The Republican National Committee is also looking to host an earlier convention in 2016. The committee has announced that its event will take place in Cleveland sometime in late June or mid-July. That is, in part, a strategic attempt to shorten the length of the GOP primary season in order to bolster the eventual nominee leading up to the general election.
19  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / WaPo's green card maps on: November 24, 2014, 07:22:29 am
Interesting maps re: country of origin of green card applicants:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/11/22/where-people-who-got-green-cards-in-2013-came-from/?tid=gravity_1.0_strip_2




20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of dead0man on: November 24, 2014, 03:25:34 am
I probably would've voted FF a week ago, but his post in that shooting thread was disgusting and the obsession with Bushie is getting old (particularly when placed in context with the former). He should go back to being an FF on Israel.

It would seem dead0man is much less obsessed with Bushie than are the people he is criticizing.  Saying "it's not bullying because you can be insensitive too" isn't a good argument.     

- A 12 year old boy getting shot to death due to a misunderstanding
- A man in his 30s getting fun poked at him by some random people on an internet forum

Now, which of these deserves a dismissive and uncaring response, and which of these deserves dozens of posts crusading against it? I'm pretty sure 99.9999999% of people could answer this fairly easily.

I don't actually have a problem with Update myself, but the obvious retort to that comparison is that the chances of that 12 year old boy's family or friends ever reading anything posted on this forum are infinitessimally small, and the boy being shot is something that has already happened, cannot be undone, and doesn't really have anything to do with the Atlas forum, except for the fact that it's been commented on here.  Thus, while I agree that dead0's comment was in bad taste, and I don't like it, the fact that he made it has no material effect on anyone involved in the shooting.

In contrast, Update is an ongoing phenomenon that is happening here on Atlas, and everyone involved in it reads posts on this forum.  So if he honestly thinks Update is problematic, then I don't have a problem with him making a big deal out of it.  I just don't agree that it's problematic.  (Or rather, I leave it up to Bushie to decide on his own what's helpful or hurtful, and respond accordingly by discontinuing his posts in the Update thread and de-friending the relevant people from FB if he really thinks he's being harmed by it.)
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bill Clinton and Bill Cosby on: November 24, 2014, 03:13:12 am
I don't know what to think about the Juanita Broaddrick case except that if this was a credible story, why wasn't it fully pursued through the 1990s?

I don't know what there was to pursue at that point, in the case of an allegation about something that happened ~two decades earlier.  There isn't really any evidence to uncover at that point, as it amounts to he said / she said.  And there were no criminal charges to push the story forward.  Broaddrick just did the two interviews and then disappeared from the public spotlight, not looking to push the matter any farther.

Also, keep in mind the context of the time, coming during the impeachment hubbub, where the partisan battlelines were set, and everyone had sorted into camps about whether Clinton should be removed from office, while also being fully aware that he would *not* be removed from office because there weren't the votes to do it.  People were arguing about Monica, but to push the narrative further, to suggest that the sitting president of the United States was a rapist, was too ugly a thought for both the media and the electorate to contemplate.

That doesn't mean it was or wasn't true, just that the fact that it never caught fire with the MSM doesn't automatically discredit it.
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Are the majority of Atlas forum posts from 2014 made by FFs or HPs? on: November 24, 2014, 01:38:10 am
This is basically asking whether you think the majority of posters here on Atlas are FFs or HPs, but weighting your answer by how many posts people make.  So if BRTD has made 5000 posts since Jan. 1, and some newbie who registered last week only has 10, then BRTD's status as a FF or HP would be weighted 500 times greater than the newbie.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb launches exploratory committee! on: November 24, 2014, 12:46:19 am
Webb's record on Israel is attacked by a former head of AIPAC:

http://jpupdates.com/2014/11/21/2016-webbs-israel-record-already-called-question/

Quote
According to Morrie Amitay, former executive director of AIPAC, Webb’s Israel record “has to be the worst” he’s ever seen “in 40 plus years following Congress.”

“Whether it was Iran, Israelis/Palestinians or the US-Israel relationship, Webb was positive only on four of eighteen pro-Israel initiatives, with two of these four having 100 cosponsors, i.e every single Senator,” Amitay said in a statement sent to the press.
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In a letter to a pro-peace activist in 2009, following Operation Cast Lead, Webb criticized the Senate passing Senate Resolution 10, recognizing the right of Israel to defend itself against attacks from Gaza and reaffirming the United States’ strong support for Israel in its battle with Hamas. “While the resolution affirms U.S. support for Israel’s security and condemns the Hamas rocket attacks, I believe it presented an incomplete response to the situation in Gaza,” Webb wrote in a response letter to David Kreider.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rick Perry indicted on abuse of power on: November 24, 2014, 12:41:05 am
*bump*

Perry is trying to get the case dismissed quickly, to clear the way for a presidential run.  But so far, it hasn't worked:

http://www.keyetv.com/news/features/top-stories/stories/case-could-make-perry-2016-impossible-22338.shtml

Quote
In August Governor Rick Perry vowed he'd be vindicated, but Tuesday his team saw a setback -- albeit a minor one, according to Republican Strategist Matt Mackowiak. He says this was the least significant of three challenges Perry's team filed to get his criminal abuse of power case thrown out.

One issue was the special prosecutor's swearing in. The judge ruled against that Tuesday.

But the case is also being challenged on constitutional grounds and the basic merits of the case. "Those two challenges are much more significant," Mackowiak says. He contends if the case isn't thrown out on one of those challenges this year, Perry 2016 might not happen.

"This is going to drag on for six, or nine or even 12 months. And that probably would make it impossible for him to be a 100 percent announced active candidate for president," Mackowiak explains.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bill Clinton and Bill Cosby on: November 23, 2014, 10:34:15 pm
Paul has already started this tack, going back to the beginning of this year:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/feb/9/rand-pauls-launches-pre-emptive-2016-strike-on-bil/

Quote
“They can’t have it both ways. And so I really think that anybody who wants to take money from Bill Clinton or have a fundraiser has a lot of explaining to do. In fact, I think they should give the money back,” Mr. Paul said on C-SPAN’s “Newsmakers.”

“If they want to take a position on women’s rights, by all means do. But you can’t do it and take it from a guy who was using his position of authority to take advantage of young women in the workplace.”


*bump*

Paul continues in this vein.  He now attacks Grimes for appearing with Bill Clinton at a fundraiser:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/02/rand-paul-bill-clinton-alison-lundergan-grimes-kentucky-103975.html?hp=r1

Quote
“I would return any money that was associated with Clinton, because I think he’s a bad role model for the workplace, for women’s rights, for all of that,” Paul said. “I think really, frankly, they ought to be a little embarrassed to be associated or being seen with him.”

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