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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: FiveThirtyEight launches full blown 2016 election forecast on: Today at 07:55:51 pm
Clinton's closest states (polls only):

Arizona
North Carolina
Colorado
Ohio
Iowa
Florida <-- Tipping point
Virginia
New Hampshire
Nevada
Pennsylvania

Wouldn't that order make Virginia the tipping point?
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Fox national poll: D: Clinton 58% Sanders 37%; R: Someone Else 51% Trump 48% on: Today at 07:44:27 pm
under age 45:
Sanders 58%
Clinton 37%

over age 45:
Clinton 71%
Sanders 23%

under age 45:
Someone Else 67%
Trump 33%

over age 45:
Trump 55%
Someone Else 42%
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Fox national poll: D: Clinton 58% Sanders 37%; R: Someone Else 51% Trump 48% on: Today at 07:40:48 pm
Fox national poll, conducted June 26-28:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/06/29/fox-news-poll-june-2-2016/

Dems

Clinton 58%
Sanders 37%

GOP

Someone Else 51%
Trump 48%
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Predict the 2020 Republican primaries on: Today at 08:50:40 am
This topic has been moved to Presidential Election Trends.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=239809.0
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NJ-FDU: Clinton +21, +12 with Johnson on: Today at 07:18:17 am
lol, Trump increases one with Johnson?

1% of New Jersey voters are undecided if it's just Clinton-Trump, but the prospect of President Johnson terrifies them so much that they flock to Trump in order to stop him...or something.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Castro, Kaine, and Warren asked to submit info on: Today at 05:44:30 am
Thune says he “knows nothing” about whether he’s being considered for VP:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/thune-vp-chatter-i-know-nothing-n599996

Quote
Fewer than three weeks before the GOP convenes in Cleveland, Thune said of the Trump campaign vetting, "I have no clue about what their process is."
.
.
.
Up for re-election in November with no challenger, Thune said he has had no direct contact with the campaign, but added, "well, I think you always take the call."

To do otherwise, said Thune, "would be rude, you know. In South Dakota, we're not rude. "

Meanwhile, “Several individuals close to Fallin” seem to be talking her up in the media, trying to sell her as a good VP choice:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/fallin-allies-say-softer-touch-would-complement-trump-bid-n600171
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac national poll: Clinton 42% Trump 40% on: Today at 05:25:55 am
fav/unfav %:
Johnson 11/11% for +/-0
Stein 5/7% for -2%
Clinton 37/57% for -20%
Trump 34/57% for -23%
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac national poll: Clinton 42% Trump 40% on: Today at 05:07:07 am
Here’s the black vote in the 4-way matchup:

Clinton 87%
Johnson 1%
Stein 1%
Trump 0%

Also, as with other polls, Johnson and Stein both tend to do well amongst youngs.  For Stein, the age gap is especially large.  She’s at 10% among voters under 35, and 1% among those over 65.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Quinnipiac national poll: Clinton 42% Trump 40% on: Today at 05:02:15 am
Quinnipiac national poll, conducted June 21-27:

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2363

Clinton 42%
Trump 40%

4-way:

Clinton 39%
Trump 37%
Johnson 8%
Stein 4%
10  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Hi, I'm new on: Today at 12:05:04 am
how do you PM someone?

You need to have 20 posts before you can send PMs.  Sorry about this, but last year we had someone register a bunch of sock accounts solely for the purpose of PMing people with porn images, and this was easiest way to stop him.
11  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Pigfvcker Memorial Suppository for UK News: A Departure from EUtopia on: June 28, 2016, 10:38:11 pm
So what is the actual procedure by which someone can call for a new leadership election for Labour?
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NBC/WSJ national: D: Clinton 52% Someone else 45%; R: Someone Else 52% Trump 45% on: June 28, 2016, 10:26:49 pm
I interpret that as Hillary's inevitability being unshakable from the start, regardless of who her opponent(s) were. Trump could've been in trouble with a strong unifying figure, but it's doubtful such a figure could ever have materialized, and same goes for the Dem side. Candidates who tried to be all things to all people tended to flame out early or put in embarrassingly pathetic performances (Walker, Jindal, Paul, Rubio, O'Malley.)

It's less clear to me that this is telling us about what might have been, as opposed to how supportive the parties are of their nominees now.

I mean, 45% say they're satisfied with Trump as the nominee.  But in an alternate universe where Kasich didn't run and Rubio didn't make a debate gaffe, a larger %age than that might have been supportive of Republican nominee Marco Rubio.  Given that Trump started the primary season with a bunch of 35% plurality victories, I don't think it would have necessarily taken a "strong unifying figure" to beat him.  Just a somewhat different field of candidates and/or strategies for beating him.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: YouGov: Trump leads GOP field. on: June 28, 2016, 10:19:54 pm
I find it interesting how low third place finisher Kasich was then.

Hardly anyone knew who he was back then.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nobody wants to speak at Trump's convention on: June 28, 2016, 08:03:22 pm
Trump should just speak on his own behalf every night for four hours.  I guess he should give his VP choice about 15 minutes, but otherwise it should just be Trump.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: George Will leaves GOP on: June 28, 2016, 08:00:31 pm
George Will is a smart guy and I respect him, but for years he's been asking the base to get in line behind the nominee, despite their differences.

Is that really true?  He's more of a pundit than an activist.  A pundit with some pretty strong ideological biases, sure, but still a pundit.  I don't see much of his commentary over the years as "trying to convince the folks now voting for Trump to vote the right way".  His commentary isn't really aimed at them.
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Pigfvcker Memorial Suppository for UK News: A Departure from EUtopia on: June 28, 2016, 07:54:03 am
Oh, and a couple questions.  Suppose that Scotland does hold a second independence referendum and it passes.  Does Labour have any realistic shot at retaking the Commons in the next decade without Scotland?

I don't see why not.  In all of the Blair victories, for example, Labour won a majority by a margin larger than the total number of seats in Scotland.  Why couldn't they (eventually) rebound back to that level of support?
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / NBC/WSJ national: D: Clinton 52% Someone else 45%; R: Someone Else 52% Trump 45% on: June 28, 2016, 03:29:28 am
NBC/WSJ national poll, conducted June 19-23:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-majority-republicans-prefer-someone-else-trump-n599861




18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nobody wants to speak at Trump's convention on: June 28, 2016, 02:12:48 am
Well who do you want to hear speak, because they've got a three-day schedule that needs to be filled.
I am sure Trump will have enough people like Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Bobby Jindal, Marco Rubio, Rudy Giuliani, the Trump family, etc... They can fill up the speaking time in a convention that is much and much less of a dog and pony show like conventions used to be.

Like I said, the latest from Rubio is that he won't speak at the convention unless he's allowed to speak on his own issues rather than give a speech in support of Trump.  We'll see whether that flies or not.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nobody wants to speak at Trump's convention on: June 28, 2016, 02:07:36 am
Source

Quote
With the convention less than a month away, POLITICO contacted more than 50 prominent governors, senators and House members to gauge their interest in speaking. Only a few said they were open to it, and everyone else said they weren’t planning on it, didn’t want to or weren’t going to Cleveland at all — or simply didn’t respond.

The widespread lack of interest, Republicans say, boils down to one thing: the growing consensus that it’s best to steer clear of Trump.

“Everyone has to make their own choice, but at this point, 70 percent of the American public doesn’t like Donald Trump. That’s as toxic as we’ve seen in American politics,” said Stuart Stevens, a longtime Republican strategist who helped to craft the party’s 2012 convention. “Normally, people want to speak at national conventions. It launched Barack Obama’s political career.”

Some people not attending/speaking the convention, or who are being vague about intentions to attend/speak:

  • Trey Gowdy
  • Sean Duffy
  • Mark Sanford
  • Carlos Curbelo
  • Kelly Ayotte
  • Bruce Rauner
  • Lindsey Graham
  • Nikki Haley
  • John Cornyn
  • Elise Stefanik
  • Richard Hudson
  • Mia Love
  • John Kasich
  • Rob Portman
  • Roger Wicker
  • Greg Walden

The list of those planning to skip out on the convention is far longer than that, with several of the skippers being mentioned in the #NeverTrump thread:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=230807.0

In addition to the names you listed, my understanding is that at least the following folks have either ruled out attending the convention or are leaning against it:

Ayotte
Baker
Kirk
Blunt
McCain
Johnson
Moran
Burr
Murkowski
Romney
Flake
Gregg
Sandoval
Hogan
Mead
Deal
all the Bushes

Duncan Hunter is one of the few people to endorse Trump during the primaries, and yet he says he probably won’t go.

Many politicians who are delegates themselves, like Rand Paul, say they’re undecided about going.

While Rubio hasn’t said he’ll skip out, he has said that he won’t speak at the convention if it means having to give a speech in support of Trump.

Cruz is presumably going, but Trump says he won’t let him speak unless he gets an endorsement out of him:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/284956-trump-wont-invite-cruz-kasich-to-speak-at-convention

And then you have folks like Gordon Humphrey, who are specifically going to the convention in order to sabotage Trump’s nomination.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / YouGov/Economist: Clinton 55% Sanders 42% on: June 28, 2016, 01:51:23 am
YouGov/Economist national poll, conducted June 18-20:

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/06/21/yougoveconomist-poll-june-18-20-2016/

Clinton 55%
Sanders 42%
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Castro, Kaine, and Warren asked to submit info on: June 28, 2016, 01:47:28 am
On this week's Keeping it 1600 podcast Maggie Haberman of the NYT said Newt has been told he is out, apparently for disloyalty to Trump when he spoke out against the Mexican judge comments.  Also said that things looked good for Kaine as the safe choice who has good relationship with Clinton.

Here is the podcast:

https://theringer.com/keepin-it-1600-podcast-politics-election-jon-favreau-dan-pfeiffer-220924af4c94#.sz1ouwrvr

The ~1:07:00 mark is when she's talking about the Trump VP race.  She mentions Christie, Corker, Cotton, Fallin, and Sessions as the likely short listers.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Castro, Kaine, and Warren asked to submit info on: June 28, 2016, 12:58:02 am
https://twitter.com/stevethomma/status/747056002390962182

Quote
Newt says on Fox he's not being vetted for VEEP.

Though again, it's not clear to me that the Trump short listers have been contacted yet, and would even know if they're being vetted.
23  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Black Mirror on: June 27, 2016, 11:02:08 pm

Any timeline on the new Netflix season?  I absolutely love Black Mirror.

No release date has been announced, AFAIK, beyond "late 2016".  I thought I read a rumor somewhere that it would be coming out in November, but don't quote me on that.

It's also still unclear how many episodes we're getting this year.  The initial press coverage said that Netflix was picking it up for "12 episodes", but are all of those episodes being made this year?  I don't know.  I think directors or partial cast lists have been released for at least 5 episodes this year though, so maybe we'll get 6 episodes this year and then another 6 next year?
24  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: June 27, 2016, 02:05:03 pm
I don't know if the Wall will even still exist when the series is over, but here's a crazy idea for the eventual ending of Jon Snow's character arc: Jon has to go beyond the Wall for some reason, but then once he's there, he can't go back anymore, because the same magic that stopped Benjen will stop Jon (since he's also "dead").  So he's (sort of) alive, but forever trapped beyond the Wall (though maybe the weather will have improved once the White Walkers are defeated).

For one thing Euron will probably steal the dragons with his magic horn.

I don't think any magic horn has been referenced on the TV show.

Quote
And I guess with the way things have been going awful for the good guys so many times something like this sort of had to happen at this stage.

It just seems like an odd place in the narrative for everything to be going quite *this* well.  Again, if they were doing more to make the White Walker threat more menacing, I'd probably feel differently, but it doesn't feel like the WW storyline has any more momentum now than it did four years ago.

Now, there is *one* thing I can think of that the writers could do next year that would seriously screw up Team Dany (and Team Humanity, when it fights the White Walkers): Have Dany herself die.  Her team falls apart, and the dragons go rogue.  That should be the closing scene of Season 7.  Tongue
25  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: June 27, 2016, 10:11:32 am
But regardless, the deck seems to be stacked in Dany's favor to a ridiculous extent.  Even if Dany's armada is stopping off in Dorne first to pick up some Martell and Tyrell troops, how long can they possibly stretch out her march to King's Landing?  Especially given that almost every other character in the show not already with her is in either King's Landing or Winterfell, or will be within another episode or two (meaning that the show's focus won't be splintered among 8 different settings each episode next season, so each storyline should be able to progress faster)?

So yeah, how long can they stretch out Cersei's downfall?  Will she make it past episode 4 of next year?


And to add to the above: This is why the finale actually felt kind of weird.  I liked the execution of it quite a bit of it, sure.  But if the series as a whole just finished Act 2 in a 3 act play, then it's a strange way to end Act 2, because things seem to be going *really* well for the "good guys".

First, even while Dany can get carried away sometimes, the show has reinforced the idea that Tyrion at least will temper her worst instincts.  So the show definitely wants the audience to root for her.  And her path ahead seems to be pretty easy.  Even against the White Walkers, the side of humanity will now be able to use dragons to burn the zombies from the air (and can use dragon glass and Valerian steel for the WWs).  The WWs now seem *less* threatening than they did a few seasons ago, which is a weird place for the story to be at the end of Act 2.  That's why I was hoping that we'd get some important info about them this season which would ramp up the threat level, but it didn't happen.

The other thing that would have been an interesting complication for Team Dany would have been if the show led us to believe that Lyanna and Rhaegar were married, which would theoretically make Jon the Targaryen heir over Dany, if that news ever got out.  They might still do that, but it remains hypothetical, so the R+L=J as given wasn't enough create any dissonance for me on the final shot of Dany's fleet, which I might have gotten if they straight up told us that Jon was the legitimate heir.
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