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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Booker's AHCA vigil on: Today at 12:00:02 am
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/26/democrats-senate-health-care-talk-a-thon-239966

Quote
And while Democrats took turns taking the floor inside the chamber, a much more rambunctious rally was unfolding outside on the Capitol steps in the relatively cool June night. Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), along with Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.), settled outside shortly after 7 p.m. and began streaming their talk blasting the GOP’s efforts to dismantle the seven-year-old health care law.

As the night progressed, Booker’s vigil on the steps attracted more and more senators, including Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York and Dick Durbin, the No. 2 Democrat, joined in. Several other Democratic senators — including Sens. Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Brian Schatz of Hawaii, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Jeff Merkley of Oregon — joined in for large chunks of the impromptu demonstration that attracted hundreds.

Here is the video:

https://www.facebook.com/corybooker/videos/vb.36872302227/10156979723652228/?type=3&theater


2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: UPDATE: CBO report on Senate bill: 22 million more uninsured by 2026 on: June 26, 2017, 10:11:35 pm
But what do Republicans tell their base if they give up on it? They can't just do literally nothing in the lead up to 2018 and have the audacity to ask for more power then

Sure they can.  Voters don't care about policy wins.  I think Bill Scher is largely right on this:

"Trump isn't accomplishing anything, but his voters don't care."


Nate Silver points out Trump's voters aren't enough for the Republican Party. They need more than just that which affects their political calculation.

OK, but swing voters wouldn't be happy with AHCA passing either.

What I was suggesting was that the idea that the GOP electorate in particular is going to be mad if Congress fails to pass ACA repeal seems unlikely to me.  I don't think it's true.  I don't think voters care that much about policy as such.  They care about what happens to them.  There was anti-Obamacare passion on the right, but that was really just anti-Obama passion.  Now that Obama himself is gone, I doubt many Republican voters rate it as a high priority issue.

Congress failing to repeal the ACA isn't going to turn normal Republican voters against either Trump or Republicans in Congress.  In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if, a year from now, a large percentage of the electorate won't even be able to correctly answer a poll question on whether Obamacare has been repealed or not.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: UPDATE: CBO report on Senate bill: 22 million more uninsured by 2026 on: June 26, 2017, 09:58:43 pm
But what do Republicans tell their base if they give up on it? They can't just do literally nothing in the lead up to 2018 and have the audacity to ask for more power then

Sure they can.  Voters don't care about policy wins.  I think Bill Scher is largely right on this:

"Trump isn't accomplishing anything, but his voters don't care."
4  General Politics / International General Discussion / Pew polls world opinion of Trump and other world leaders on: June 26, 2017, 09:47:58 pm
Trump is less popular than Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in much of the world, according to this Pew poll:

http://www.pewglobal.org/2017/06/26/u-s-image-suffers-as-publics-around-world-question-trumps-leadership/



Here are the #s on Trump in particular:



Though he does better among those on the political right:



Here’s the arc of US presidential popularity in Western Europe:



Here's the favorability of the US as a whole:



And here’s how that’s changed worldwide since last year:



And here’s the trend in Canada and Mexico…note that this is the first time since this poll started back in 2002 that under 50% of Canadians have a favorable view of the US:





And finally, here are people’s views of the American people:


5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How is Kamala Harris a better candidate than Hillary Clinton on: June 26, 2017, 08:17:09 pm
No 25 year Republican witch hunt.

I am kind of wondering to what extent highly unpopular presidential nominees is something that was peculiar to 2016, or if it’s “the new normal”.  Someone who is “new” to the national stage like Harris, who does not come in with Clinton-esque baggage, is she nonetheless doomed to end up with underwater favorability #s simply by winning the Democratic nomination, thereby prompting the GOP attack machine to savage her (just as any Republican nominee would get attacked by the Dems)?  Are the major party presidential nominees now symbols in the culture war on a level where they become super-polarizing regardless of how talented they are as politicians?  I don’t know, but I think it’s a possibility.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Predict the Senate vote on the "motion to proceed" on AHCA on: June 26, 2017, 05:41:23 pm
First step in the Senate process is a "motion to proceed" on debate on the AHCA.  Predict how every Senator will vote on that.  (Though this of course assumes that McConnell doesn't simply pull it from the floor if he discovers that he doesn't have the votes.)
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: June 26, 2017, 05:04:17 pm
Merkley does not rule out running for prez:

https://kobi5.com/news/senator-merkley-addresses-rumors-of-presidential-bid-55607/

Quote
Asked if there’s any chance he’ll run for President of the United States, Sen. Merkley replied, “Well, I think it was Senator Berg who once said, ‘Every person who comes to the Senate, if flashes in their mind at one point or another they could be a better president than the one who is serving.’ And I must say, every Democrat in America believes they could be a better President than Donald Trump.”

He said the only thing he’s considering is how to help his Democrat colleagues in the upcoming mid-term election.
8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Favorite troll on: June 26, 2017, 04:06:51 pm
Honorable mention for bmaup1:

A quagmire is a situation which is hard to get out of and only gets worse the longer you stay in- think Iraq.
I don't know much about iraq, i was too young to like know/understand. All i know is we asserted ourselves, got into some fights, and it was a bad like war. I think. Not even sure if it was a war, or if we won.
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Kalwejt Foundation for the Promotion of Atlas Hilarity on: June 26, 2017, 04:02:32 pm
I'd like to ask for this thread to be locked and new one, named for someone far more deserving, created.

Ahem:

Next thread must be named for Morden

I accept your nomination.  Tongue
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Independent Kasich campaign? on: June 26, 2017, 03:58:59 pm
If Kasich runs in 2020, I think an independent campaign is probably his most likely route. It's nearly impossible to defeat an incumbent president in the primaries, and if he had good infrastructure and decent connections, he could all but guarantee ballot placement in every state.

It's nearly impossible to win as an Indy too.  In any case, many people run for president despite having no realistic chance of winning.  It happens all the time.  And there's an argument to be made for running for the GOP nomination rather than running 3rd party: It takes the "spoiler" argument off the table.  If you're running 3rd party, and are a distant 3rd place in the polls, then many will dismiss you out of hand because what's the point of "throwing your vote away" when the real contest is between the Dem. and GOP nominees?  Whereas if you challenge Trump in the primary and you're his only main opponent for the nomination, then that's a moot point.

I would not rule out either Kasich or some other "mainstream" GOP politico (most likely someone who, like Kasich as of 2020, no longer holds political office and has nothing to lose) challenging Trump in the primary.  Of course, they're not going to win, just like Buchanan was never going to beat Bush in the 1992 primary.  The point wouldn't be to win.  It'd be to lay down a marker as a sort of act of protest against the Trump-ified version of the GOP.  There's a reasonable chance that some kind of challenge like that will come from either the "center" (in the form of Kasich or someone Kasich-like), or from the libertarian wing of the party (most likely Amash or Paul).  Of course, the challenge won't succeed, but a Buchanan-like showing of more than 20% of the national popular vote in the primaries isn't out of the question.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: June 26, 2017, 09:23:53 am
The Kansas City Star has a new story on Kander:

http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article157930459.html

Quote
Kander’s trips to Iowa and New Hampshire, traditionally the sites of the first two presidential nominating contests, trigger instant speculation he’s interested in a higher office than governor or senator.

The board of Let America Vote includes former West Wing staffers Earnest; Dan Pfeiffer, a senior adviser to Obama; and Jon Favreau, Obama’s chief speechwriter.

“That looks like a presidential team,” said Bob Mulholland, a California-based Democratic strategist.

“It is not bonkers to talk about it because we are in a different era,” said Scott Brennan, a Democratic operative in Iowa. “That is the Trump effect. You see lots of people who’ve never even been in office who are talking about running for the White House. If, in fact, Jason Kander is interested in running, you need to build your nationwide profile. That is the way to do it.”
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Favorite troll on: June 25, 2017, 08:54:55 pm
I mean, there's also VanderBlubb if you want to count him.  Or Aizen's various sock accounts, such as The Professor and Mister Twister.  Who can forget the "mega coattails" thread?:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=162860.0
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Full text of the Senate's health care bill released on: June 25, 2017, 08:38:28 pm
While Cornyn emphasizes the importance of moving quickly, he seems to be floating a trial balloon here of delaying the vote until later in July:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/25/obamacare-repeal-senate-republicans-239937

Quote
“We don’t have the luxury of waiting around. It’s not going to get easier,” Cornyn said, identifying Aug. 1 as a “drop-dead line.”
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Favorite troll on: June 25, 2017, 07:29:01 pm
Yougo1000


However, honorable mention to this amusing fellow:

The reason people are at war against the zoo is because humans don't see themselves as an animal that is born naked Yes i said naked. and goes back to the dust like any animal. Don't see that refuse to be like Jesus who judged himself.  Don't judge yourself strike out at others. That is called warring if you don't know already.  zoosexuality would be legal had we not had jails that Jesus would look narrowly upon.
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Favorite troll on: June 25, 2017, 07:01:51 pm
Yougo1000
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: Elizabeth Warren as my opponent “would be a dream come true” on: June 25, 2017, 05:07:48 pm
*bump*

Trump can't stop talking about Warren.  When asked about her in a Fox interview, he says that she has too much "hatred" and "anger", is "a highly overrated voice", and was probably an electoral drag on Hillary Clinton:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=niJJo_W9zDc
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Did Democrats take Obama for granted? on: June 25, 2017, 11:41:27 am
They bled governerships, Congressional seats, and state legislatures under him. What exactly was taken for granted?

Yes, though honestly that almost always happens.  What modern president *hasn't* bled governships, Congressional seats, and state legislatures for his party?  At some point, you've got to conclude that the incumbent president's party loses ground during his presidency for structural reasons, rather than because every president who gets elected is somehow bad at politics.


Yet some lose more ground than others, and some leave their party at a much wider disadvantage. It's a rule based on a small group of presidents and that leaves a wide degree of variation unexplained.

Republicans had never held the kind of advantage that they do in state houses today until the end of Obama's presidency, and the last time when they controlled Congress so persistently was during the Great Depression, a period when national politics were so different as to be barely worth comparing to those of the present day.

Even if it is mostly a matter of geographic polarization between large urban cores and the country's economic periphery, something unique seems to be happening.

IMHO, the main thing that’s different now is the geographic distribution of the Democratic vote.  Compare, say, the 2000 election (after two terms of Clinton) with the 2016 election (after two terms of Obama): The GOP in 2000 won the national House popular vote by 0.5 percentage points in 2000, which was enough to retain their majority, but just barely.  A small shift in votes that year would have seen the Dems retake the House.  Six seats were won by Republicans by 2 points or less, and if five of those had gone the other way, you end up with House Speaker Dick Gephardt.  Whereas in 2016, the GOP won the national House vote by 1.1 percentage points (a slightly better margin than in 2000, sure, but not by much).  However, their structural advantage is vastly greater now, to the point where a uniform swing of as much as 10 points isn’t enough to dislodge them from the majority (swings aren’t going to be uniform, obviously, this is just a benchmark).  Heck, the Dems’ 5 point House popular vote win in the 1992 election would not be enough to give them a majority of seats if you replicated that today, because of the geographic distribution of votes.

And then you’ve got the presidential level, where the Dems won the popular vote but lost the electoral college in both cases, but the mismatch was much greater in 2016 than 2000.  Clinton beat Trump in the popular vote by much more than Gore beat Bush, yet no Florida recount scenario could have bailed her out of her electoral college loss.

And similar issues with state legislatures.  I don’t have the numbers in front of me now, but it’s obviously problematic to simply count up the number of state legislative seats in the country held by each party, as if they all count the same.  Democratic votes are far more concentrated in California, the most populous state, than they’ve ever been, for example.  California’s State Assembly has 55 Dems vs. 25 Republicans., while Wyoming’s House of Reps has 51 Republicans vs. 9 Dems.  So on a raw count of who has more legislative seats between those two states, it’s the Republicans, yet obviously the Democrats represent many many more voters if you’re combining the vote tallies of those two states.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: June 25, 2017, 08:57:38 am
Sunday morning talk show watch:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NEWS_SHOWS?SITE=AP

Bernie Sanders will be on Meet the Press tomorrow, while John Kasich will be on State of the Union.


I guess Tim Ryan was also on Meet the Press this morning....live from Iowa:

https://twitter.com/kailanikm/status/878971245836075010
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Full text of the Senate's health care bill released on: June 25, 2017, 08:53:57 am
So this is all hinging on the question of whether there are three people in the entire Senate GOP caucus who have a conscience.

Or three sociopaths who want to see even more people die and don't want to vote for a bill that leaves just 25 milion uninsured ("What about the other 35 million welfare leeches?").

You guys aren't cynical enough.  Senators vote based on political calculation, not out of principle or conscience.  The GOP Senators who vote for it will do so because they think the safe political play for them is to side with Trump and the party leadership rather than defy their party.  OTOH, any no votes "from the center" will happen because the Senators in question think the unpopularity of the bill with the general public puts their reelection at risk, while no votes "from the right" will happen because they think demanding a bill with more ideological purity will actually play better with their conservative base than going along with the party line.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Spark498 on: June 24, 2017, 10:44:41 pm
Pretty obvious troll IMO. His entire forum persona is an act, but this whole dating story was simply too overdone.

This is all very real and the proof is overwhelming at this point, so it's getting very frustrating to see this continually stated without a shred of reasonable evidence.

Here is his YouTube channel:

Link.


WTF?  From that, it appears that he's putting out about an hour's worth of political commentary on Youtube pretty much every single day, spending (for example) like a half hour or so on a video about a hypothetical Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump 2020 matchup, in which he goes through every state like he's calling it on election night.  Something is not right with the man.

Also, who are all the commenters on those videos?  Are those Atlas forum posters, or does he have his own independent Youtube following?
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Spark498 on: June 24, 2017, 09:54:12 pm
OK, but all of his threads are like that.  He constantly posts these ridiculous advice threads, like:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=265399.0
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=267088.0
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=267147.0

If his dating thread was trolling, then his entire persona is trolling, because that's what he sounds like all the time.

This is exactly why I am so conflicted. That extra 5% comes from me wondering if, as part of his "ultimate troll," he just decided to ask a question just like he always does but instead make his situation/responses sound absurd.

I'm confused about what you're suggesting here.  You're saying that you think he's being sincere with most of his advice threads, but that he's trolling only with the dating advice thing?  I'd say that's the *least* likely possibility.  IMHO, either he's being absolutely sincere about everything, or his entire forum persona is an act.  I say that because his other "advice" threads are also ridiculous, just not quite as ridiculous as the dating one.  I mean, in the "How do I meet the president?" thread linked above, he asks about how to schedule a private meeting with the president, and in another thread from last year, he was asking about how to get appointed to the Cabinet.  All of his postings about his personal life are rather whacky, and his political posts are also not terribly sophisticated.

He does not seem to be sophisticated or self aware enough to pull off a "joke" like the dating advice thread.  So either he's being absolutely sincere about the whole thing, or else he's not really the person we think he is from his posts here, and he's being "fake" not just in the dating thread, but in the rest of his posts as well.
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Spark498 on: June 24, 2017, 08:40:18 pm
I'd say I'm about 55% convinced that his relationship advice thing was a trolling scheme that he just never let go of.

OK, but all of his threads are like that.  He constantly posts these ridiculous advice threads, like:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=265399.0
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=267088.0
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=267147.0

If his dating thread was trolling, then his entire persona is trolling, because that's what he sounds like all the time.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: McMullin and Finn launch anti-Trump conservative organization on: June 24, 2017, 05:07:07 pm
The Atlantic has a new McMullin profile:

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/07/the-defector/528714/
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of OC's new display name on: June 24, 2017, 04:32:51 pm
His new line seems to be that Kamala Harris getting positive buzz is helpful to Cory Booker because, if I'm reading this right, it makes American voters more appreciative of black people(!):

Actually, the Kamela Harris crusade has helped Booker to some degree. Eventhough, the country isn't ready for a female prez, a black one at that, ivy leagued blacks stand out in the senate, and her testimony of Sessions, made Cory Booker shine. That's why he let her do most of the fillibustering of Jeff Sessions, while he stayed out of the way.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Joe Biden vs Cory Booker:Who wins the majority of black voters in the primaries? on: June 24, 2017, 04:22:21 pm
I am not counting on Booker to necessarily win the black vote outright.  I just think he'll do better with the black vote than he will with the white vote, whether his main opposition is Biden or anybody else.  Even in the 2008 case, back in mid-2007-ish, when Obama was losing the black vote to Clinton in the polls, he was still doing better among blacks than he was among whites (at least in most polls).  Basically every black Democratic presidential candidate does better with blacks than whites.
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