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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Clinton trails Paul, ties or leads others. Bush does worst. on: Today at 08:29:00 am
fav/unfav %

Paul 41/30% for +11%
Huckabee 37/30% for +7%
Clinton 48/47% for +1%
Christie 35/38% for -3%
Bush 29/40% for -11%
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is this the worst post in the history of Atlas? on: Today at 12:14:15 am
My view on the whole moderation argument is that as long as Dave Leip assigns you to a board, you have a responsibility to us to moderate that board until he moves you off.

Well, probably at least a third (half?) of Atlas mods either don't moderate anymore, or go through long stretches of time without moderating.  Heck, Lunar is still a moderator of Individual Politics, though he hasn't posted since 2011 (and attempted to resign his position back then).

Folks have tried to resign many times, only to see Dave ignore their emails, so expecting them to keep at it indefinitely seems like a big ask.
3  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Recent bans on: Today at 12:00:05 am
Speaking of, if I were to guess, I'd say the chances of opebo coming back are far greater than the chances of jmfcst coming back, even though the odds of either happening are slim.  opebo, at least to my knowledge, didn't make ten different sock accounts after he was banned...

I still think Mr. Pollo is Opebo...

LOL. Isn't Mr. Pollo anti-marijuana?

Sorry but that's as ridiculous as believing Link was Einzige.

The posting styles are very similar though.

If Pollo is opebo, then either he's much more technologically proficient than he let on, or he flew back to the US just so he could post from another account.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: April 23, 2014, 11:27:28 pm
Thune says he's not running:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/23/john-thune-2016_n_5202271.html?utm_hp_ref=politics
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is this the worst post in the history of Atlas? on: April 23, 2014, 09:55:21 pm
Could the mods get their mind together and ban oldies for once?
We banned Link for similar antics. Yet, mods don't even seem to want to infract him enough than he goes mute.

He posted much more insanity than King, yet, he wasn't muted yet.

King was never muted.

He reached 50 points, which put him under mod control, the result being pretty much the same (we don't hear them anymore for a moment).

Please point out to me the time that King made no posts for 5 days straight.

Because it was removed/his posts were approved after he came back to himself.

What are you talking about?  We approved all of his posts while he was on mod review, and they showed up immediately upon approval.  It didn't have to wait for the mod review to expire.


I'm aware.

Well, it didn't sound like it, since you said "Because it was removed/his posts were approved after he came back to himself", which doesn't make sense.  So I was just clearing that up.

Quote
What I'm saying is than King drunken posts were enough to get himon mod review, why Oldies, which said much worse than King, isn't? It's a pretty simple question.

Well, that I can't help you with, since Oldies pretty much never posts on my board.
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is this the worst post in the history of Atlas? on: April 23, 2014, 09:46:58 pm
Could the mods get their mind together and ban oldies for once?
We banned Link for similar antics. Yet, mods don't even seem to want to infract him enough than he goes mute.

He posted much more insanity than King, yet, he wasn't muted yet.

King was never muted.

He reached 50 points, which put him under mod control, the result being pretty much the same (we don't hear them anymore for a moment).

Please point out to me the time that King made no posts for 5 days straight.

Because it was removed/his posts were approved after he came back to himself.

What are you talking about?  We approved all of his posts while he was on mod review, and they showed up immediately upon approval.  It didn't have to wait for the mod review to expire.
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is the update's existance a good thing for BushOklahoma? on: April 23, 2014, 08:46:27 pm
Another thread that begs the question as to whether it's called "Update" or "The Update"….
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: latest Betfair odds on: April 23, 2014, 08:44:40 pm
Jeb-mentum as Bush takes the lead:

Bush 20.4
Rubio 16.3
Christie 10.9
Paul 10.9
Walker 6.8
Cruz 5.7
Ryan 5.0
Huckabee 4.8

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 26.8
Palin 23.9
Thune 16.1
Pawlenty 8.8
Huckabee 7.6
Gingrich 5.5
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: April 23, 2014, 08:38:52 pm
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/jeb-bush-im-thinking-about-running-for-president-in-2016/

Quote
Former Gov. Jeb Bush, R-Fla., on Wednesday gave one of the clearest indications to date that he's considering running for president in 2016.

Speaking at a closed-door fundraiser for New York Catholic schools, Bush said he's "digesting" the idea of running for president, according to New York businessman John Catsimatidis, who was in attendance.

Catsimatidis told CBS News that Bush joked, "Somebody call my mother and ask her." Bush was referencing the fact that his mother, former First Lady Barbara Bush, said earlier this year that she hopes he doesn't run for president. Mrs. Bush has since softened her comments and has expressed more openness to the idea.

Also, another non-denial from Carson:

http://www.foxbaltimore.com/news/features/top-stories/stories/growing-grassroots-effort-support-dr-ben-carson-2016-presidential-election-27434.shtml#.U1hpmaUWH4Y

Quote
"I will leave that in the hands of God and the American people," Carson said. "It's not something that I have any desire to do by any stretch of the imagination...I have said that I will not turn my back on my fellow Americans if we reached a point a year from now, and no one was getting traction, I would have to take that into consideration."

Dr. Carson says his primary goal is to awaken the American people and regardless of a presidential run, he plans to use his national platform to do just that.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538: "Democrats Shouldn't Count On An Electoral College Edge in 2016?" on: April 23, 2014, 02:13:20 am
The U.S. Census Bureau projects that the U.S. will become a minority-majority population in 2043.

Does that count white Hispanics as being white?  (see, e.g., this thread: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=191320.0 )


No. I thought that at first, but apparently the projection is for non-hispanic whites.

http://www.businessinsider.com/census-whites-will-become-a-minority-in-the-united-states-by-2043-2012-12

Right.  But some of those Hispanics will be whiter than Ted Cruz.  My nephew, for example, is half Cuban, but he looks as white as I do.

And of course, it's not clear that Hispanics, mixed race people, etc., will continue to identify and be identified as separate from whites: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=191014.0
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538: "Democrats Shouldn't Count On An Electoral College Edge in 2016?" on: April 23, 2014, 01:58:12 am
The U.S. Census Bureau projects that the U.S. will become a minority-majority population in 2043.

Does that count white Hispanics as being white?  (see, e.g., this thread: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=191320.0 )
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would the upsides and downsides be of Tim Kaine as VP choice in 2016? on: April 22, 2014, 09:25:09 pm
Why pick Kaine when you have Warner who is better in every way?

Not *every* way.  Warner's a bit older and also a gazillionaire.  Also, tempermentally, Warner seems like more of a Type A personality, who might have a somewhat harder time suppressing his own ego enough to be a loyal #2.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The 15 cities that the DNC asked to bid for the 2016 convention on: April 22, 2014, 08:22:46 pm
Update: The DNC has dropped many of those earlier cities that it invited, and is now only asking 15 cities to bid for the convention, with a deadline of June 6.  The 15 cities are:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/04/22/first-on-cnn-15-cities-in-running-for-2016-democratic-convention/

Atlanta *
Chicago
Cleveland *
Columbus *
Detroit
Indianapolis #
Las Vegas
Miami *
Nashville *
New York City *
Orlando
Philadelphia *
Phoenix *
Pittsburgh *
Salt Lake City

* The nine cities with an * have already expressed some interest in making a bid.  This includes NYC, which now seems interested despite having been quiet on this until recently: http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/new-york-pitch-score-2016-democratic-national-convention-include-brooklyn-blog-entry-1.1765315
It's not clear that any of the other six cities listed are actually interested in making a bid.  And in fact....

# Indianapolis appears to have already ruled out making a bid: http://www.wibc.com/news/story.aspx?ID=2161245
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Atlas, let's talk about race on: April 22, 2014, 06:07:10 pm
Cruz and Rubio are Hispanic.
Yeah, they're white Hispanics.

I'm a White Hispanic too. If I was a liberal candidate, media and the Dems would label me "Latino". If I was a conservative candidate, they'd call me White.

Sort of like how many people seem to think that the Tsarnaevs weren't white because they're Muslim…
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should I delete Update? on: April 22, 2014, 09:13:45 am
Someone please save all the old Update threads before Bushie goes on a deleting frenzy!!


16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Survey Shows that 51% of Americans Question the 'Big Bang Theory' on: April 22, 2014, 09:03:30 am
While scientists are extremely confident about the 13.8 billion figure...

I would dispute that.

EDIT: By which I mean, sure, 13.8 billion has got to be pretty close to being right if the Lambda-CDM model is correct, but Lambda-CDM being correct isn't something I would bet my life on.  There could be some complicating wrinkles.


There is plenty of debate over the nature of the cold dark matter in the standard Lambda-CDM model. But most competing models that would result in a substantially different age of the universe (t0) have failed to match all the known observational data, particularly data from gravitational lensing and colliding galaxies. Other extensions of Lambda-CDM typically involve parameters that leave t0 largely untouched. So I would say that most scientists are extremely confident in the value of t0 within a reasonable experimental and theoretical error.

I don't know, Muon.  Dark energy still feels something like a late 20th / early 21st century version of "the ether" to me.  I still feel like there's a decent chance that we'll learn something that will change our understanding of GR enough that it won't quite be vanilla Lambda-CDM.  Perhaps Lambda-CDM with some interesting wrinkles that mean that it's not quite 13.8 billion years old.

What do you think of folks like David Wiltshire, who claim that the conventional shortcuts that people take in averaging the spacetime metric in a way that kind of ignores large scale structure is leading them astray ( http://arxiv.org/pdf/0912.4563.pdf )?  Wiltshire goes so far as to say that this can explain away dark energy, which puts him outside the mainstream consensus.  But I think there are others (though still a minority, I think, though I'm no GR specialist) who would support some milder version of this, which would still mean that you could have a universe without a single unique age, because of the differential in time dilation between an observer who's in the middle of a void and an observer who's in the middle of a huge galaxy cluster.
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should I delete Update? on: April 22, 2014, 08:38:26 am
Holy mother of God, Mondale and I have like six mutual friends on Facebook... and then some of his have up to a dozen! (they go here, it looks like)! Truly, it is a small world that some of us live in.

Can you tell his RL friends to tell him to kindly cease his activities so we may all enjoy Update in serenity and peace?

The weird thing is, if Mondale is that kid from Portland, it took me 45 seconds to find his very public FB page and the kid has way more to lose in the way of a RL reputation......so why would he risk it?

Because he figures that he hasn't done anything sufficiently embarrassing here, that would get him in any kind of trouble?  He clearly doesn't worry about us knowing who he is, given his public dare last year to work it out:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=170699.msg3659348#msg3659348


Joe Republic knew who he was 6 months before that.

All the moderators knew who he was 6 months before that.  Joe Republic worked it out, and posted his identity on the mod board in September 2012.  We know the real life identities of most of the chronic sockmasters.  They rarely try very hard to disguise themselves.
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should I delete Update? on: April 22, 2014, 08:28:53 am
Holy mother of God, Mondale and I have like six mutual friends on Facebook... and then some of his have up to a dozen! (they go here, it looks like)! Truly, it is a small world that some of us live in.

Can you tell his RL friends to tell him to kindly cease his activities so we may all enjoy Update in serenity and peace?

The weird thing is, if Mondale is that kid from Portland, it took me 45 seconds to find his very public FB page and the kid has way more to lose in the way of a RL reputation......so why would he risk it?

Because he figures that he hasn't done anything sufficiently embarrassing here, that would get him in any kind of trouble?  He clearly doesn't worry about us knowing who he is, given his public dare last year to work it out:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=170699.msg3659348#msg3659348
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should I delete Update? on: April 22, 2014, 07:43:34 am
Bushie may be the easiest target, but he's hardly the only poster who's shared enough here for this psychopath to stalk and to harass him. I don't know how much deleting anything will help at this point, but we should do what we can to protect him whether we believe that he deserves that protection or not.

If we delete threads over such threats, then the terrorists have won.


(kidding)
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Survey Shows that 51% of Americans Question the 'Big Bang Theory' on: April 22, 2014, 07:05:14 am
While scientists are extremely confident about the 13.8 billion figure...

I would dispute that.

EDIT: By which I mean, sure, 13.8 billion has got to be pretty close to being right if the Lambda-CDM model is correct, but Lambda-CDM being correct isn't something I would bet my life on.  There could be some complicating wrinkles.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will the 2016 GOP field be all white men? on: April 22, 2014, 01:04:17 am
Marsha Blackburn has said she's interested. So that makes a woman likelier.

No she hasn't.  An aide to her gave an anonymous quote suggesting that her trip to NH was a sign of testing the waters for a national run, but Blackburn herself denied that she was running.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Survey Shows that 51% of Americans Question the 'Big Bang Theory' on: April 22, 2014, 01:00:11 am
The pollsters asked the question incorrectly; they made the statement, "The universe began 13.8 billion years ago with a big bang."  Well, that's (1) almost certainly not true, and (2) more importantly not what the big bang theory purports to explain.  The big bang theory is an explanation of the expansion of the development and expansion of the universe, not the creation of the universe.  According to the big bang theory, the universe existed as a singularity before the big bang actually happened, and the big bang theory does not address how it came into existence.

Not exactly.  The instant of the Big Bang is the beginning of time.  There is no "before".  As I recently saw someone else describe it, talking about "before the Big Bang" is like talking about something being north of the North Pole.  The concept is incoherent.

In any case, I'm reasonably confident that there was a Big Bang, but to say that it was exactly 13.8 billion years ago simply because of the Planck results last year…..that's still a sketchy proposition.  Heck, if some of the more exotic theories about the inhomogeneity of large scale structure are correct, then the age of the universe could vary by as much as billions of years depending on whether you make the measurement in a supercluster or a void.


There would have been no time relevant to the universe, because at that point, time would be immeasurable pursuant to the Penrose–Hawking singularity theorem; however, there is nothing in current science that precludes the possibility of multiple universes or anything outside of the singularity.  And this begins to cross into a point of physics that I really don't understand, but the point is that the big bang theory does not explain when (or how) the universe began; it can only explain its development.

Fair enough that it doesn't explain "how" the universe began.  But technically, saying that "the universe began with a big bang" isn't saying anything about "how".  It's just saying that the big bang was coincident with the beginning of the universe.

(Though yes, there could be some kind of multiverse scenario, but whether you call those other universes part of our universe or not is a matter of semantics.)
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Survey Shows that 51% of Americans Question the 'Big Bang Theory' on: April 22, 2014, 12:37:14 am
The pollsters asked the question incorrectly; they made the statement, "The universe began 13.8 billion years ago with a big bang."  Well, that's (1) almost certainly not true, and (2) more importantly not what the big bang theory purports to explain.  The big bang theory is an explanation of the expansion of the development and expansion of the universe, not the creation of the universe.  According to the big bang theory, the universe existed as a singularity before the big bang actually happened, and the big bang theory does not address how it came into existence.

Not exactly.  The instant of the Big Bang is the beginning of time.  There is no "before".  As I recently saw someone else describe it, talking about "before the Big Bang" is like talking about something being north of the North Pole.  The concept is incoherent.

In any case, I'm reasonably confident that there was a Big Bang, but to say that it was exactly 13.8 billion years ago simply because of the Planck results last year…..that's still a sketchy proposition.  Heck, if some of the more exotic theories about the inhomogeneity of large scale structure are correct, then the age of the universe could vary by as much as billions of years depending on whether you make the measurement in a supercluster or a void.
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should I delete Update? on: April 21, 2014, 11:29:53 pm
What happened on Facebook?

Banned troll and repeat sockmaster Mondale84 set up a Facebook page that attacks Bushie with citations to Update threads.  He's also gone around to various other FB pages like the Oklahoma State alumni page and the Maisha Orphanage FB page, posting links to Update threads (it's still there on the Maisha page).
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should I delete Update? on: April 21, 2014, 11:16:14 pm
Is there anything he can do to get the troll to stop attacking him? Giving Jeff a hard time via the Forum is one thing ... creating Facebook pages and posting things on alumni websites is entirely different. I'm at a loss as to what his options are ... and maybe he can't do anything.

As I understand it, Bushie reported him to Facebook, and they did nothing.
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