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April 19, 2015, 07:40:29 am
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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP announces 12 debates on: April 18, 2015, 11:43:10 pm
*bump*

I guess I missed this news at the time, but apparently it was announced last month that the first debate will be Saturday, Aug. 15th in Cleveland (same city that the convention will be held in next year):

http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-debate-schedule/2016-republican-primary-debate-schedule/

That's exactly one week after the Iowa Straw Poll.  So no debates before the Iowa Straw Poll this time.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: April 18, 2015, 11:33:14 pm
So we've already talked about how Carson is set to announce his 2016 plans on May 4th.  Well, it looks like he's scheduled a 3 day trip to Iowa to immediately follow his announcement:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/04/18/ben-carson-visiting-iowa-announcement/25997173/

Hmmm….I wonder what decision he's going to announce on the 4th.  Maybe he'll announce that he's not going to run for president, and would just really like to take a vacation in Iowa, for unrelated reasons?
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Mr. Morden on: April 18, 2015, 09:25:39 pm
Ours, FF.  The original should have his head cut off and have it stuck on a pike as a warning to the next ten generations that some favors come with too high a price.

Plagiarist!:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0n2vurSBIQ
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Huckabee: young people should wait until Obama leaves office to join US military on: April 18, 2015, 08:54:10 pm
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/04/18/mike-huckabee-military-obama_n_7092448.html

Quote
The possible 2016 presidential contender was asked about a Washington Times report citing "religious freedom advocates" who said that Christians are leaving the military because of a “hostile work environment."

Huckabee told Iowa talk radio host Jan Mickelson that the Obama administration “orders its chaplains to put its Bibles away, not to pray in Jesus' name, not to counsel people on the issues of sexual morality.”

“When you have this attitude that is more about promoting gay marriage and gay rights in the military than it is about being able to protect religious liberty for those people of faith,” Huckabee said, “it’s going to be hard to find people that are truly devoted people of faith and Christian believers and Orthodox Jews and others.”

He also said that the Obama administration has an "open hostility toward the Christian faith", and urged young Christians to wait until Obama's out of office to sign up, because hopefully by then "We get a new commander in chief that will once again believe ‘one nation under God,’."
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee forms exploratory committee, plans May 5th announcement on 2016 on: April 18, 2015, 08:04:49 pm
I'm kinda surprised he's running since he agreed to be the spokesman for that diabetes treatment thing.

I hope he does some diabetes treatment product placement during the debates.

Moderator: Gov. Huckabee, you've called for the United States to stand with Israel against the threat of a nuclear Iran.  How would you do that without leading the country into war?

Huckabee: That's a great question.  Iran's leadership is part of a death cult, determined to wipe Israel off the map.  If given the chance, they would perpetrate a second Holocaust, by pushing the nuclear button.

And what drives otherwise intelligent people to such madness?

The cause of this is mass insanity within the Islamic Republic.  The truth is that Iran lacks adequate mental health care coverage.  Now, our intelligence agencies suggest that Iran is hoping to impose a socialistic solution to this problem, like Obamacare.  But if I was president, I would enter into negotiations with Iran to sell them, at a discount appropriate for the national security concerns in play, alternative health care treatments from Barton Publishing.

These are natural remedies available to anyone.  They range from an all natural erectile dysfunction cure to our popular Diabetes Solution Kit.  How can you purchase these products yourself?  Keep watching. We’re about to share these secrets with you!
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich getting serious, launches PAC to raise money on: April 18, 2015, 10:28:11 am
Is Kasich really any more religious than the average GOP pol?  I know he used religious language to talk about the welfare state in his first term as governor, but I read that as a transparent attempt to put the most conservative-friendly face on a move to the center that he thought he needed to make in order to be reelected.  (Yes, I know he ended up winning by a big margin, but he was unpopular as recently as 2013, and his reelection looked to be in doubt back then.)

When he was in Congress, he rarely talked about social issues.  He was a pretty single-minded budget hawk, and was pretty much the complete opposite of Huckabee in terms of serving up red meat to the base on cultural issues.
7  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of cheerleaders on: April 18, 2015, 10:19:53 am
The concept of cheerleading is obviously ridiculously sexist...

Nevertheless, America's first cheerleader president is reported to have had a Y chromosome:


8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Max Podia? on: April 18, 2015, 02:38:27 am
For reference, the fifth debate in 2011 had 9 (they let Johnson in). Most of the others had 8.

The first three debates in the 2008 GOP primary season each had 10 participants.

I don't think they'll go higher than 10.  Priebus has already talked about including a polling cutoff for inclusion in the debates (even if it's very low, like 1%).  I doubt folks like Ehrlich will end up getting invites.

Also, the first debate isn't until August this time, possibly after the Iowa straw poll.  Some of these folks will drop out by then.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 21 potential GOP candidates in NH this weekend on: April 18, 2015, 02:23:54 am
Maybe some less important ones who the editor is aware of, but not we ...

I think they might just erroneously be lumping in some of the local pols in attendance (like Kelly Ayotte and Scott Brown) as "2016 presidential candidates" even though they're really not.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 21 potential GOP candidates in NH this weekend on: April 18, 2015, 02:14:08 am
The ones I'm aware of who are in attendance are:

Bolton
Bush
Christie
Cruz
Ehrlich
Fiorina
Gilmore
Graham
Huckabee
Jindal
Kasich
King
Pataki
Paul
Perry
Rubio
Trump
Walker

That's 18.  Who are the other three people they're classifying as 2016 candidates who are attending this thing?  I know Carson isn't there because of a scheduling conflict, and I heard Santorum was skipping as well, but who else is there?
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Would you attend a gay wedding? Rubio: yes, Santorum: no, Cruz: won't answer on: April 17, 2015, 11:43:30 pm
A rundown of which gay events Rubio would attend:

http://www.newyorker.com/humor/daily-shouts/gay-events-that-i-marco-rubio-would-go-to
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Would you attend a gay wedding? Rubio: yes, Santorum: no, Cruz: won't answer on: April 17, 2015, 11:42:48 pm
The latest question being asked of the candidates:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/santorum-wouldnt-attend-same-sex-wedding-117065.html
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Mark B Graham 2016 on: April 17, 2015, 10:32:27 pm
He ran in 2008 as well, and posted about it on Atlas:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=2571
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Donald Trump's classy tweet about Clinton on: April 17, 2015, 10:29:38 pm
http://dailycaller.com/2015/04/17/trump-how-can-hillary-satisfy-america-if-she-cant-satisfy-her-husband/



Quote
The post was deleted soon after, but not before TheDC screengrabbed the tweet in question
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rick Snyder mulls presidential run on: April 17, 2015, 08:43:57 pm
Clown car is going to turn into a clown bus at this rate

It's why the official theme song of the 2016 race is "Too Many Cooks".  They even predicted Snyder's interest:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=209245.0
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: sheldon whitehouse for vp on: April 17, 2015, 08:24:24 pm
Oppose, unless he agrees to change his name to Sheldon Navalobservatory.
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What questions will you ask Mark B Graham? on: April 17, 2015, 08:14:10 pm
Here's what I would ask:

When you visit the forum again, will you use your old MarkBGraham2008 account, or create a MarkBGraham2016 account?  If the latter, do you realize that you'll be banned for socking?
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which election cycle will be worse for pollsters? on: April 17, 2015, 08:08:48 pm
Have a guess. I actually think it will be 2016, even though 2014 was already terrible.

The average polling error in Senate and Gubernatorial races in 2014 was actually not that much worse than other recent midterm elections:


19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: April 17, 2015, 07:55:36 pm
Also on Huckabee:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/2016-elections/mike-huckabee-2016-exploratory-committee-20150417

Quote
Earlier this week, he also announced that his nationally syndicated radio show would no longer be broadcast starting May 1.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee forms exploratory committee, plans May 5th announcement on 2016 on: April 17, 2015, 07:55:04 pm
The May 5th announcement will be in Hope, AR.  He also revealed that he's already formed an exploratory committee:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/2016-elections/mike-huckabee-2016-exploratory-committee-20150417
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: April 17, 2015, 07:50:34 pm
Kasich sets up a 527 committee:

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2015/04/16/kasich-presidential-nonprofit.html

Huckabee says he'll announce his presidential plans on May 5th in Hope, AR:

http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/17/politics/mike-huckabee-announcement-fox-news/

And then there's Snyder:

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/04/17/us/ap-us-gop-2016-snyder.html

Quote
People close to Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder have formed a fund allowing him to travel the country to more aggressively tell of the state's rebound under his watch, raising the prospect of a potential Republican presidential bid.

A spokesman for the governor told The Associated Press on Friday that a 501(c)(4) group, Making Government Accountable, was established within the past month.

An aide close to the governor said Snyder is considering a presidential run and that a decision could be made in a few weeks. The aide was not authorized to speak publicly about Snyder's plans and requested anonymity.
22  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Should Dzhokhar Tsarnaev be put to death for the Boston Massacre? on: April 17, 2015, 07:29:43 pm
I oppose the death penalty in all cases and I believe life in prison without parole would be much harsher punishment...

This seems like a weird position to me, to be honest.  If you actually think that life in prison would be appropriate in this case, *and* you think that it's a "much harsher" penalty than execution, then why wouldn't you support capital punishment for other cases, where the crime isn't quite as severe?  Yet you say that you oppose it "in all cases"?
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: April 17, 2015, 07:23:42 am
Bolton says he feels no time pressure to make a decision:

link

Quote
Well, right now I’m doing due diligence ... I don’t have a particular time table and I think this is a very wide open Republican field. I think all the polling shows that the voters are widely scattered in their preferences.

I think we need to let this play out, I think that’s a good thing for the party. We already know who the near-certain Democratic nominee is going to be. Let’s have the Republicans compete and some campaigns will stumble, others will decide not to get in. ... I don’t feel enormous time pressure.
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Who Do You Have On Ignore? on: April 17, 2015, 06:15:07 am
Gustaf
angus
J. J.
ag
Snowguy716
Badger
oakvale
krazen1211
Cory
Ismail
Oldiesfreak1854
Timothy87
solarstorm
Hifly
NewYorkExpress
AggregateDemand
Polls_PuffPass
pendragon
Ntwadumela
anarchy2day
The Terminator
ILoveTheSmellOfTheSenate
Replicator
Anonymouse
ROIDRAGER#BB
Philip Weisler
Lankester Merrin
TimTurner
Guesswho

I'm absolutely baffled as to what some of these posters did to deserve being ignored?





Who the f**k is ILoveTheSmellOfTheSenate? Huh

A short-lived jmfcst sock.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / FL-Mason Dixon: Rubio 31% Bush 30% Cruz 8% Paul 7% on: April 17, 2015, 05:34:09 am
Mason-Dixon poll of Florida:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/florida-poll-rollout-helps-rubio-tie-bush-in-home-state-117069.html?hp=l1_3

Rubio 31%
Bush 30%
Cruz 8%
Paul 7%
Walker 2%

I don't think those were the only five names polled, as they say that 17% were undecided, so there must be another few % allocated to other candidates, but I don't know where to find the full writeup for the poll.
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