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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Ben Carson launches exploratory committee on: Today at 12:42:03 am
http://www.wsj.com/articles/ben-carson-creates-committee-to-explore-presidential-bid-1425355626

Quote
Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has formally created an exploratory committee to run for president, his campaign chief executive, Terry Giles, said Monday.

As noted in that story, Carson still has paid speeches on his calendar as late as late April, and will "probably" launch a formal campaign in May.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: March 02, 2015, 11:20:27 pm

Specifically, Bush, Walker, Jindal, Perry, Rubio, Santorum, and Pataki.

Ehrlich talks 2016:

http://dailycaller.com/2015/03/01/what-about-bob-ehrlich-says-he-is-in-listening-tour-phase-of-potential-2016-run/

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Speaking to The Daily Caller Friday afternoon on the sidelines of the Conservative Political Action Conference, Ehrlich said he is in the “listening tour” phase of his presidential considerations, traveling to important early primary states likes New Hampshire and Florida to give speeches and hear from voters.

“There are two definitions of listening tour,” Ehrlich, 57, explained. “One is phony, I’ve made my mind up and I am pretending to do a listening tour. …And the other is what we are doing, taking those invitations, seeing how people react to my style, my views, my record, my platform, my personality, my approach.”

Kasich has flown to DC in order to attend Netanyahu's address to Congress.  He also says he's planning a trip to NH:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/03/john-kasich-benjamin-netanyahu-congress-115685.html

Quote
“All options are on the table,” he said during an evening sit-down at the Capital Hilton. “I’ve made no decision, and there’s no timetable right now. I understand the realities of political decision-making, but there’s no reason for me to have to make any decision at this point.”

“I think we’re going to go to New Hampshire sometime soon,” he added. “I’ve gotten I don’t know how many invitations to go there."
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Rubio run? on: March 02, 2015, 11:07:20 pm
Rubio's young, and in it for the long haul.  He really doesn't fit well in the mix this year, and his Senate seat is up in 2016.  Rubio's a favorite for re-election to the Senate, but not a prohibitive favorite; the thing that boosts his re-election chances is the unlikelihood of a first-tier Democrat opponent.

Rubio's quite young.  I can see him being re-elected, then moving into the Senate GOP leadership.  He was speaker of the FL House of Reps, so he understands legislative leadership.  The GOP needs a Hispanic face other than Ted Cruz, and Rubio foots the bill well.  He could well end up having the most influential career of any Hispanic politician in history, and could well be President someday. 

I think Rubio understands this.  I think he knows that if he runs for President and loses, it won't be a plus, and will undermine his Senate re-election.  I also think that serious donors understand this as well. 

I don't think he cares about his Senate seat, or having a career in the Senate.  He only ran for Senate in the first place in order to set himself up for a presidential run, IMHO.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Rubio run? on: March 02, 2015, 08:53:17 pm
I think he will run, but I think if he really is gunning for the VP spot, he should stay in the Senate, endorse the eventual frontrunner fairly early, raise a lot money for him, and do well stumping for him. I think it'll become increasingly more likely that nominees won't pick people who ran against them in the primary, given how acrimonious and heated they've become. Can you imagine the things Marco Rubio, or any candidate for that matter, will have to say about the eventual nominee?

I don't see any reason to think that Rubio will be ruled out of running mate contention by running (unsuccessfully) for president.  He should run for president John Edwards 2004 style, and stay mostly positive, without making viscious attacks on the frontrunners.  Hope that, as with Edwards in '04, his campaign trail performance in the primaries makes him a stronger contender for the vice presidency.

He can't really run for reelection for Senate and vice president at the same time.  Florida law won't allow it.  If he's picked as VP, then sure, he could just drop out of his Senate race, but the party will have to scramble for a replacement for him.  Better for him to just renounce reelection plans right now, and declare for president, in the hopes that if he doesn't win the nomination and Walker (or whoever) does, Walker picks him as his running mate.

If the ticket then loses in November, Rubio will have at least set himself up for 2020, having prevented anyone else from using the VP slot on the ticket to gain their own national prominence.  Again, just like John Edwards tried to do in 2008.  Edwards, of course, was stymied by Clinton and Obama, but Rubio will just have to hope that there is no Republican equivalent of Clinton or Obama who emerges in 2020 to stop him.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: March 02, 2015, 08:32:04 pm
Perry preparing to set up a Super PAC:

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/03/02/perry-steps-up-pac-staffing/

Quote
Rick Perry, the former Texas governor who ran unsuccessfully for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012, is continuing to put the pieces in place for a 2016 campaign.

Mr. Perry is moving to establish a “super PAC” to back his effort, and has turned to Austin Barbour, a Mississippi-based lobbyist and political operative to head it, according to three people with knowledge of the moves.

O'Malley moves up his upcoming New Hampshire trip to an earlier date:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/omalley-heading-back-to-nh-a-little-sooner-than-previously-announced/2015/02/19/93e30ba8-b87c-11e4-aa05-1ce812b3fdd2_story.html

Quote
O’Malley has said he will probably announce by spring whether he is moving forward with a bid for the Democratic nomination that would likely pit him against Hillary Rodham Clinton.

In addition to his New Hampshire visit, O’Malley is scheduled to visit South Carolina, Iowa, Kansas, New York and Illinois in upcoming weeks. He also has several events planned back home with supporters, including a March 23 “ideas summit”in Baltimore.

Meanwhile, O'Malley won't comment on whether he might run for Mikulski's Senate seat:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/evanmcsan/omalley-not-discussing-senate-bid-yet#.fg0vY8kro
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update Season XXI: "Scientific Facts Are Not Hard And Fast Rules." on: March 02, 2015, 06:12:11 pm
What's for dinner tonight?  And when's your next weigh-in?
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: March 02, 2015, 10:17:43 am
Rubio preparing for launch:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/florida-republican-senator-marco-rubio-decision-2016-presidential-bid/

Quote
Nearly a dozen people close to Rubio, including GOP officials, fundraisers and his advisers, say Rubio has told them he is in the final stages of planning the launch of his presidential run and will formally join the crowded field of Republican hopefuls as early as April. All spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss their private conversations with Rubio.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: SC-PPP: Bush, Walker and Hillary ahead on: March 02, 2015, 02:18:00 am
Other poll questions for the GOP primary voters in South Carolina:

those are always fun.  I believe a PPP poll before the 2012 GOP primary showed that a plurality of likely primary voters believed Obama was born outside of the USA.

I was amused by PPP's finding in 2009 that a non-negligible fraction of birthers correctly believe that Obama was born in Hawaii, but don't think Hawaii is part of the United States (or aren't sure if it is or not):

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com.au/2009/08/deeper-look-at-birthers.html
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 1 year to go until Super Tuesday on: March 01, 2015, 10:48:09 pm
For the Republican primary, its actually on April 1st.

Your joke is dumb, so I'll ruin it by pointing out that April 1, 2016 is actually a Friday, so it can't be "Super Tuesday".  Tongue
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which type of VP should Jeb Bush pick? on: March 01, 2015, 10:22:43 pm
An advantage for Jeb is that there are several potential picks that are bold without being too inexperienced. Nikki Haley, Susanna Martinez and Brian Sandoval are reelected Governors. Kelly Ayotte will be finishing her first term as Senator. There's also the possibility that a primary rival will be able to sufficiently distinguish themselves.

Regardless of whether the presidential nominee is Bush or Walker or whoever, I think Ayotte is a lock to be included on the running mate short list if she agrees to be vetted.  That's the tricky part.  Nowadays, it's awfully hard to hide the fact that you've agreed to participate in the vetting process, because things inevitably leak out.  And if she's in a tough reelection battle for her Senate seat, can she afford to have one foot in and one foot out of the race by toying with the option of a VP run?  Or would that be at all damaging to her reelection prospects?
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / 1 year to go until Super Tuesday on: March 01, 2015, 09:53:50 pm
Super Tuesday will be March 1, 2016, with (presumably) 10-15 or so states holding primaries that day.  So there's a strong chance that we'll know what the general election matchup is one year from right now (if not before).
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: March 01, 2015, 08:40:29 pm
Huckabee on a potential run:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/234253-huckabee-2016-decision-forthcoming

Quote
“We're looking very carefully at the structure that would need to be in place.  And I think a decision will be forthcoming. I've always said my timetable is sometime in the spring. And by the winter, we're not quite there yet,” Huckabee said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

Asked if he’s leaning more toward running, he said, “I think that's fair. I think the fact that I left Fox News is a pretty good indication that I didn't do that just because I enjoyed having Saturdays at home.”
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: March 01, 2015, 02:40:37 pm
According to DMR's candidate tracker, Fiorina will make another visit to Iowa on March 13-14:

http://data.desmoinesregister.com/iowa-caucus/candidate-tracker/index.php

I don't get it.

What don't you get?
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: March 01, 2015, 06:05:13 am
No indication that Pence is preparing for a presidential run:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/twenty-sixteen/mike-pence-isn-t-preparing-to-run-for-president-20150227

Quote
But despite the hype, there are few outward signs that Pence is doing anything but keeping his name in the presidential conversation. At a time when other "potential" candidates are going all out to raise funds and assemble campaign teams, Pence is doing neither. Instead, his fundraising efforts suggest he's focused on winning another term as governor.
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To be sure, Pence could still run for president, and he has a list of speaking engagements lined up in the next few weeks, including at the Club for Growth's annual meeting in Florida, the American Enterprise Institute's World Forum, and the Republican Jewish Coalition's spring meeting. But if he is running, he's certainly getting a late start, and other Indiana observers say they see Pence as primarily reelection focused.

"No one here believes he's running for president," said Dan Parker, a longtime political adviser to former Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will Hillary Become 'Mommy President' to Millennials? on: March 01, 2015, 02:43:43 am
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/02/grandmother-in-chief/385238/
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What are Fiorina's Qualifications? on: March 01, 2015, 02:28:57 am
She warned us of the danger posed by demon sheep.


17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: latest Betfair odds on: March 01, 2015, 02:10:13 am
Post-CPAC update: Walker gains, Paul drops, and Cruz passes Christie for 5th place:

Bush 30.5
Walker 20.8
Rubio 17.7
Paul 10.9
Cruz 5.0
Christie 4.3
Huckabee 3.8
Carson 2.9
Ryan 2.9
Pence 2.5
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Gore vs Quayle on alternatehistory.com on: March 01, 2015, 02:01:09 am
This topic has been moved to Alternative Elections.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=208158.0
19  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: What color is this dress? on: February 28, 2015, 07:41:36 pm
Important public figures are weighing in on this crucial issue:


20  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: What color is this dress? on: February 28, 2015, 07:39:46 pm
I'm interested to know what homely sees, since he does those maps with thousands of colors in them.

pbrower is known to make maps like this:



So I wonder what he sees.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CPAC straw poll: Paul 26% Walker 21% Cruz 12% Carson 11% Bush 8% Santorum 4% on: February 28, 2015, 07:34:40 pm
Mark Halperin grades the performances of each of the 2016ers:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-02-26/mark-halperin-s-cpac-report-cards

Complete with gifs:


22  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Favorite country starting with "J"? on: February 28, 2015, 07:13:32 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKrqDzljhc0

Because of my years of playing Street Fighter 2, that's the way I hear it in my head when someone says "Japan".
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CPAC straw poll: Paul 26% Walker 21% Cruz 12% Carson 11% Bush 8% Santorum 4% on: February 28, 2015, 05:58:16 pm
Bush actually made a strong push to get supporters there:

link

Quote
It sounds like Jeb Bush’s supporters are taking CPAC pretty seriously this year. Emails provided to Slate show that backers of the former Florida governor are busing supporters from downtown Washington D.C. to CPAC in National Harbor, Maryland, and organizing to get them day passes into the event.

One of the emails that went out this morning was from Fritz Brogan, a former advance man for then-President George W. Bush who (per the Washington Post) co-hosted a fundraiser for Jeb’s Right to Rise PAC earlier this month. A Bush insider confirmed to Slate that Bush’s Right to Rise PAC is helping organize the transportation.

“We strongly recommend arriving as early as possible to get a seat,” wrote Brogan in an email sent to undisclosed recipients. “Our ‘Early Rise’ team will be there at 7:30am onward helping reserve seats- if you want to join the early team, let me know.”
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CPAC 2015: February 25-28 on: February 28, 2015, 09:10:41 am
A reminder that the straw poll results are due to be announced today at 5:10pm.  (Though based on previous years' experience, they often run late.)

That's early in the morning here in Perth, so there's a good chance I won't be awake yet.  So feel free to post the results here in this thread.
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update Season XXI: "Scientific Facts Are Not Hard And Fast Rules." on: February 27, 2015, 08:59:34 pm
I looked at a job description last night for the Owasso store Meat Clerk and it said I could walk up to 2 miles in an 8 hour day.  I will be very sore.  I am very aware my back and my feet will be killing me by day's end, but at the same time I am looking forward to possibly losing weight from the constant standing up and walking.  Over time, my back and feet won't hurt as bad as I get used to it.  I don't see standing and walking as unreachable challenges, I see them as a potential complete lifestyle overhaul.

You have an entire month with nothing else to do, during which you can "train" for this.  Why don't you walk 40 minutes tomorrow, and see if you can handle it?


I may do that when I get back to Tulsa this next week.  I'm down at my parents' in OKC this weekend and we've got an inch of snow on the ground and expecting another 2-4" tomorrow plus some late afternoon sleet or freezing drizzle.  Later this week it's supposed to be in the 50's and 60's, so it will be a good time to walk.  I will be working in a climate-controlled building with fairly uniform temperatures except for the time I'm in the meat freezer.

I assume the "diet" is on hiatus while you're in OKC?


I'm trying to behave, but I've got to eat what they have bought.  We had chili tonight for supper, but I was a good boy and only had a handful of Fritos and cheese.  I have had too many cokes today, though.

Update XXII: A handful of Fritos and cheese
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