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January 29, 2015, 11:22:10 am
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Can an Oldtimer Explain Why Hamilton Was So Bad? on: Today at 11:18:47 am
MODLEAKS from a moderator whose identity I will strip out in case he doesn't want me quoting him:

Straha has just informed me that Hamilton has 6 accounts in reserve. He told Straha this for some reason.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico: Clinton May Delay Campaign Launch Until Summer on: Today at 09:25:59 am
In 2003, the Democrats held their first debate in early May.  Several candidates, including Kerry, Edwards, and Dean, participated in the debate despite not having officially announced their candidacies.  But they had exploratory committees, and were acting like candidates: raising money, participating in debates, doing campaign swings in early primary states.  Kerry didn't formally announce his candidacy until September, and the media largely ignored it as a non-event at the time, because he'd already been behaving as a candidate for many months.  The announcement of candidacy was just a formality.

In contrast, when Fred Thompson ran in 2007/2008, he skipped any debates during his exploratory phase, and pretty much just stayed at home, calling donors.  (But he was lazy.)  Jim Webb seems to be doing pretty much the same right now.  (He doesn't seem to be that excited about running either.)

How a candidate treats the exploratory phase is up to the candidate.  If Clinton launches an exploratory committee in April, then everyone will understand that that's effectively the launch of her campaign.  But she might just decide to spend those first few months raising money, and doing little else.  Being in the exploratory phase does give you the benefit of plausible deniability if you don't want to start with the national interviews or frequent trips to Iowa just yet.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Rasmussen: Romney ahead by double-digits nationally on: Today at 09:14:11 am
OK, out of pure curiosity, I did something kind of silly: I went through all of the national and statewide polls from this month, and calculated the median value for each candidate, throwing together national polls and state polls in IA, NH, SC, PA, and NJ*.  Even though all those states are different, I figured that throwing them in the same pot and taking the median along with the national numbers would give a decent idea of where things are nationally.  I find:

Romney 20%
Bush 13%
Carson 8.5%
Huckabee 8%
Walker 8%
Christie 7%
Paul 7%
Cruz 6.5%
Rubio 3.5%
Perry 2.5%
[Omitting candidates like Jindal and Santorum who aren't included in most of the polls.]

I think the untold story of the polls this month is Walker.  A few months ago, he had the lowest name recognition of anyone in the field (actually, he still might, if you don't count folks like Kasich and Pence, who usually aren't included in these polls), and was regularly getting #s in the 2-4% range.  Now he typically hits high single digits, if not double digits, and usually outperforms folks like Christie, Paul, and Cruz.

* [I used 9 polls total.  Four national polls plus one poll each from the five states I mentioned.  Several of these are from pretty bad pollsters, but I'm counting on the fact that by taking the median, you're not too corrupted by outliers.]
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / CPAC format being updated on: Today at 08:37:08 am
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/cpac-changes-2016-audience-114650.html

Quote
The horde of likely presidential contenders expected at this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference will be asked to deliver speeches about specific policy issues — rather than campaign-style stemwinders — and they’ll also face audience questions, organizers told POLITICO in an exclusive preview Tuesday.

The changes promise to add a bit more drama to the annual conservative confab, which is slated for Feb. 25-28, and come as the GOP 2016 field has expanded to well over a dozen potential candidates.

“If you’re running for president and appearing at CPAC, you’ll have to answer some tough questions not given to you ahead of time,” said Matt Schlapp, the chairman of the American Conservative Union, which hosts the event.

Sounds like, with the RNC reducing the number of debates, other organizations are trying to step in and create more unscripted debate-like encounters with candidates that don't actually qualify as "debates".
5  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Petition for leniency on Hamilton/"Napoleon" on: Today at 08:31:48 am
So you all want him coming back as someone else, messaging you and making friends with you without knowing who you're talking to at the time? Kinky. No thanks for me - I'd rather know exactly who I'm talking to on here.

This is the same reasoning people give for opposing gun laws, and it makes no sense here either.

If socks are banned, then only banned posters will have socks.


6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico: Clinton May Delay Campaign Launch Until Summer on: Today at 07:48:22 am
A presidential exploratory committee is, for all intents and purposes, a presidential campaign (since all the $ raised in the exploratory phase can just be rolled over into the "real campaign"), so I don't think the date she announces her actual "campaign" makes any difference whatsoever if she already has an exploratory committee.

Heck, in the past two or three election cycles, we had numerous candidates participating in debates when they were still in the "exploratory committee" phase.  The official launches of their campaigns were often just afterthoughts that no one paid any attention to.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: latest Betfair odds on: Today at 12:48:46 am
Romney slips further, putting Walker in a tie with him for second place:

GOP nomination

Bush 28.4
Romney 14.9
Walker 14.9
Rubio 13.8
Paul 10.9
Christie 8.4
Cruz 7.0
Perry 5.8
Huckabee 4.2

Also of interest, winning individual:

Clinton 49.2
Bush 14.9
Rubio 7.5
Romney 6.5
Paul 6.2
Christie 4.2
Walker 4.2
Warren 4.2

However, the winning individual market has low volume, so I don't think it's really caught up to where the nomination markets are.
8  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Petition to Unban Tyriontheimperialist on: January 28, 2015, 11:16:06 pm
x LeBron FitzGerald

What about Guntaker?

Guntaker admitted to being 11 years old last year, so Nym gave him a two year ban, since US law says we can't have a forum here with kids under 13 years old.

As I remember, he only said that in IRC though and he never said anything on the forum about it so there was still that chance he was joking. Tongue

The mods tried to contact him to talk to him about it, but he never responded.
9  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Black Mirror on: January 28, 2015, 10:53:19 pm
*bump*

Rumors that an American version of the show might happen at some point in the near-ish future, but nothing really concrete:

http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/28/media/black-mirror-american-adaptation/
10  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Petition to Unban Tyriontheimperialist on: January 28, 2015, 10:27:07 pm
What about Guntaker?

Guntaker admitted to being 11 years old last year, so Nym gave him a two year ban, since US law says we can't have a forum here with kids under 13 years old.
11  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Can an Oldtimer Explain Why Hamilton Was So Bad? on: January 28, 2015, 10:22:42 pm
I've heard that he dug up personal information of other posters and threatened them with it and essentially tried to hold people hostage for fantasyland stuff.

An example from a post that's been deleted from the main forum, but that I can still see quoted on the mod board:

I will leak private messages and IMs and such from RPP members that I have if the post isn't gone soon. This isn't a threat. THis is the situation that I want you to deal with before I have to.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Pro-Romney group running radio ads against Bush, Christie, and Palin on: January 28, 2015, 09:06:54 pm
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jan/28/second-pro-romney-radio-ad-hits-christie-bush-pali/

Quote
A production company owned by a supporter of 2012 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney has released its second radio ad boosting Mr. Romney in as many weeks and indirectly knocking a few of his potential 2016 rivals in the process.

“In a world where Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and Sarah Palin are considering a run for the presidency, one wants to sell you a bridge, one wants to provide a bridge to immigrants, and one built a bridge to nowhere,” says a narrator in the ad from TMR Multimedia, which is acting independently of Mr. Romney. “Only one man can bridge the gap between Republicans and connect with America: Mitt Romney.”
.
.
.
The company’s owner, Jay Schorr, is a supporter of Mr. Romney, and the company has pledged to release a new ad every week through the 2016 election.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: January 28, 2015, 08:07:06 pm
John Bolton says he doesn't "feel any particular time pressure" on making a decision on whether to run for president or not:

http://www.desertsun.com/story/news/politics/2015/01/28/john-bolton-foreign-policy/22471811/
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / SC-Gravis: Romney 20% Bush 16% Walker 9% Huckabee 8% Cruz 8% Rubio 7% Paul 7% on: January 28, 2015, 06:03:37 pm
Gravis poll of South Carolina:



If Romney doesn't run:



Carson wasn't included in the poll.  I presume he'd do pretty well if he was included.
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Hamilton on: January 28, 2015, 05:56:09 pm
I wonder which historical figure will be his next account. If somebody registers as "Genghis Khan" in the next few days, alarm bells should go off.

Nah.  It's got to be someone else who was alive in the late 18th and early 19th centuries.
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Napoleon Memorial Thread #RIP on: January 28, 2015, 01:43:02 pm
I don't know why people think the main issue here is socking.  Hamilton isn't banned for socking.  He's banned for all the stuff he did years ago that got him banned in the first place.  The many sock accounts created after that banning are just reasons not to reconsider the original ban.

The people who only get temp bans for socking are people for whom Nym would not ban them at all if it weren't for the socking.
17  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Petition to Unban Tyriontheimperialist on: January 28, 2015, 01:33:53 pm
Nym's Banhammer of Justice malfunctioned on this one, and he messed up the tempban on Ogis.  But it should now be fixed, and Ogis's original account is unbanned.
18  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Recent bans on: January 28, 2015, 01:32:12 pm
Nym has appeared to swing the Banhammer of Justice…..

Napoleon: banned for being a Hamilton sock
Five accounts have been banned for being Giovanni socks:
Maistre
Chilltown
vytas1993
TDR1994
OpinionatedGuy
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XX: A Darn Good Judge of My Financial Situation on: January 28, 2015, 09:46:03 am
Remember this from October?:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=200654.msg4349686#msg4349686

Quote
[Grandma] will teach me to cook, which is something I've wanted to do for years.

After spending all that time living with Grandma, he should now have enough cooking knowledge to prepare whatever he likes, right?  Tongue
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XX: A Darn Good Judge of My Financial Situation on: January 28, 2015, 09:25:41 am
Bushie, just don't post any more updates until you do one of these three things:

1) Prepare a meal for yourself that includes a vegetable.
2) Walk outside for at least 30 minutes straight.
3) Get a job.

If you don't do any of those things, you'll just get more negativity here (for good reason).
21  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: Bushie vs. Peter Griffin on: January 28, 2015, 09:01:17 am
Peter's shining moment was when he accepted a salmon helmet from the prophet Mohammed while wearing a toga.

Has Bushie ever done anything that would upset Ayman Zawahiri that much?
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: January 28, 2015, 08:55:43 am
Perry will "announce something in May or June":

http://kxan.com/2015/01/27/perry-presidential-run-well-announce-something-in-may-or-june/

Only problem is that the judge in his corruption case has just refused to toss the case, so that might delay things a little:

http://kxan.com/2015/01/27/judge-denies-rick-perrys-attempts-to-dismiss-indictment/
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: January 28, 2015, 08:45:24 am
The Onion has an exclusive story on Jindal's cold feet:

http://www.theonion.com/articles/bobby-jindal-not-sure-he-willing-to-put-family-thr,37864/

Quote
Citing the intense pressures and scrutiny placed on political candidates and the people in their lives, Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal announced Tuesday that he’s not sure he wants to put his family through the rigors of a two-month presidential campaign.

The 43-year-old former congressman told reporters that while his wife and three young children are tremendously supportive of his political ambitions, he recognizes that a relentless six-to-eight-week run for the White House would be hard on them nonetheless.

“If I were to declare my candidacy this June, I’d immediately have to head out on the campaign trail and would likely be apart from my family for as much as half the summer—that’s a sacrifice I really have to think about,” Jindal said of a potential bid for the Republican Party’s 2016 presidential nomination. “We’re talking four, maybe five big town hall events in the early primary states, a handful of public rallies, and a few Sundays spent at meet-and-greets with local voters. That’s multiple weekends on the road, and I’m not sure it would be fair to my kids.”
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Jindal for Senate? on: January 28, 2015, 08:43:44 am
Apparently he is having presidential doubts.

Are you basing this on the Onion story?

http://www.theonion.com/articles/bobby-jindal-not-sure-he-willing-to-put-family-thr,37864/
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Favorite European Union Member State Tournament Round 2 on: January 28, 2015, 08:40:15 am
This topic has been moved to Survivor.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=206534.0
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