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November 21, 2014, 10:00:37 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XIX: Melancholy and the Infinite Napping on: Today at 09:47:45 pm
I am going to look at my lease contract and see if it says how much it would cost to break the lease early.  If it is reasonable, I will talk to Dad about it Wednesday night and we can come to a decision on this apartment.  The sooner I can break this lease, the sooner I can get my own apartment in Oklahoma City closer to work and regain my independence.

This is what I was suggesting you look into a month ago:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=200654.msg4345301#msg4345301

Quote
If this job is in OKC, can you just break the lease in Tulsa and move out of there, presumably paying some sort of penalty?  How high would such a penalty be?  Cheaper than maintaining two separate apartments for all this time?  Or is breaking the lease legally impossible?
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the state you live in? on: Today at 09:44:16 pm
I live in Western Australia.  So I think I can take almost all of you in the "my state's bigger than yours" competition.
3  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: The last movie you've seen thread 2014 on: Today at 08:55:21 pm
A Most Wanted Man

If you're familiar with the director's other work, then you'll know why this isn't for everyone. It's actually a very action-less movie for the most part and isn't even really a Law & Order or CSI style procedural either, it's mostly about people. It's slow but can be interesting and rewarding, Hoffman was fantastic, it was another one of his roles that he just totally blended into and was totally believable as someone in Germany intelligence. One rather silly thing about it is that all the allegedly German characters still spoke English to each other and in fact there wasn't a single line of German in the film. Expected with an English-speaking writer and mostly American cast, but still...

I just saw the movie myself.  I don't really see the English as being silly, because that's a nearly universal convention of the movies--that if Country X produces a movie set entirely in another place or time that speaks a different language, they just "translate" the whole movie for the home audience rather than subtitle the entire thing.  There are very few exceptions to this.  (The Passion of the Christ would be one of the rare counterexamples, I guess?)  I mean, an American produced movie set in Ancient Rome or an American-produced movie about Joan of Arc is going to have the actors speaking English.  How is this any more silly than that?
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NBC Poll: '2016 Field Is Crowded -- and Mostly Unpopular' on: Today at 05:48:18 pm
What we should be looking at two years from the election is not the polls but positives/negatives of candidates. Hillary has 40% negatives with 100% name recognition. Negatives stay. People who form a negative opinion about somebody will keep that negative opinion.

That's true.  That's why public figures with high name recognition never see their popularity change much over time.  E.g.:




Why were her approvals so low in 2000?  Do we blame wives for he sex scandals of their husbands now? 

The Lewinsky scandal made her extremely popular (see the peak in 1999), but then that quickly faded, and her 2000 Senate race brought her back down to Earth.

Also, *favorability*, not approval.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NBC Poll: '2016 Field Is Crowded -- and Mostly Unpopular' on: Today at 11:45:12 am
What we should be looking at two years from the election is not the polls but positives/negatives of candidates. Hillary has 40% negatives with 100% name recognition. Negatives stay. People who form a negative opinion about somebody will keep that negative opinion.

That's true.  That's why public figures with high name recognition never see their popularity change much over time.  E.g.:


6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XIX: Melancholy and the Infinite Napping on: Today at 11:39:24 am
Thanksgiving and Christmas are connected and cannot be separated. 

In that case, what are your thoughts on non-Christians who celebrate Thanksgiving?
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: November 20, 2014, 06:50:03 pm
Carson's visiting Iowa this weekend:

http://caffeinatedthoughts.com/2014/11/ben-carson-comes-iowa-serious-2016-contender/
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Carson seeks to assure supporters that he's solid on guns on: November 20, 2014, 06:44:33 pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2014-11-20/ben-carson-seeks-to-assure-supporters-hes-solid-on-guns

Quote
Ahead of a weekend trip to Iowa, potential 2016 Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson sought to assure supporters Wednesday evening that he's a strong Second Amendment supporter.

As he inches closer to the prospect of a presidential campaign, Carson used a conference call to try to address questions about his loyalty to gun rights. Skeptics often point to a statement the neurosurgeon-turned-conservative-activist made in 2013 to conservative talk-show host Glenn Beck, who asked whether people have the right to own semi-automatic weapons.

In that Beck interview in 2013, Carson said of automatic weapons located in urban environments "If you live in the midst of a lot of people, and I’m afraid that that semi-automatic weapon is going to fall into the hands of a crazy person, I would rather you not have it.”

However, in this latest conference call, he says:

Quote
Carson said that “under no circumstances” would he “allow a bureaucrat to remove any law-abiding citizen's rights for any kind of weapon that they want to protect themselves.”

If he were in a position of national leadership, Carson said he would seek to allow people to possess any kind of weapon they can legally buy, including “automatic weapons and semi-automatic weapons.”
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NBC Poll: '2016 Field Is Crowded -- and Mostly Unpopular' on: November 20, 2014, 06:05:33 pm
Positive/Negative ratings for the 2016ers from new NBC/Wapo poll

Among all respondents:

    Ben Carson 17%-7% (+10)

This poll proves once and for all that once you go black, you don't go back.
10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XIX: Melancholy and the Infinite Napping on: November 20, 2014, 05:14:10 pm
Please no canned veggies. They have no bulk and are loaded with salt. Completely defeats the purpose. Get a fresh broccoli crown. Boil for just about 1 minute.  Put some Mrs. Dash on it for flavor. Easiest thing in the world. Are you allowed to use the stove at grandma's or do the same rules apply as at home? Is she your mother's mother or your father's mother?

He never even used the stove at his apartment in Tulsa.  I doubt he's about to start now.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ryan named Chairman of House Ways and Means Committee on: November 20, 2014, 05:09:11 pm
It's not necessarily an exit. Perry was Chairman of the RGA.

But Ways and Means Chair is a job that Ryan has coveted for some time, and the new House GOP rules suggest that he'll have to give up the chairmanship if he runs for higher office.

Of course, he'll string out his presidential decision for another six months or so, but it's not looking like he's going to pull the trigger.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NBC Poll: '2016 Field Is Crowded -- and Mostly Unpopular' on: November 20, 2014, 03:53:43 pm
Positive/Negative ratings for the 2016ers from new NBC/Wapo poll

NBC/WSJ, not NBC/WaPo.
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XIX: Melancholy and the Infinite Napping on: November 20, 2014, 03:19:20 pm
I'm sure the Tribe will be able to pay to perform it for him by 2023 at the latest, if they start pooling their resources now.

Bushie told us that Native Americans were rich because of casino money, so money should be no object.

If that were really true, they wouldn't have made him wait like a year and a half for a dental appointment.

Exactly.
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XIX: Melancholy and the Infinite Napping on: November 20, 2014, 02:32:57 pm
I'm sure the Tribe will be able to pay to perform it for him by 2023 at the latest, if they start pooling their resources now.

Bushie told us that Native Americans were rich because of casino money, so money should be no object.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: latest Betfair odds on: November 20, 2014, 07:33:30 am
Romney retakes third place:

Bush 20.8
Rubio 15.8
Romney 13.4
Paul 11.6
Christie 11.1
Walker 10.5
Cruz 6.2
Perry 5.3

winning party:

Dems 59.9
GOP 44.8

Four years ago today:

Romney 22.5
Palin 19.3
Thune 12.7
Pawlenty 7.0
Huckabee 6.7
J. Bush 4.4
Gingrich 4.4
Christie 3.7

winning party:

Dems 56.2
GOP 41.8
other 3.5

16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico ranks the relative likelihood of the GOP candidates running for the nom on: November 20, 2014, 07:18:31 am
--is it a ranking? Seems looser than that maybe

The story is subtitled "Our list of the GOP’s 2016 contenders, ranked by how likely they are to run."
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What is the marital status of your parents? on: November 20, 2014, 07:04:15 am
You left out the widowed option.  My mother's a widow, as my father passed away some years ago.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb launches exploratory committee! on: November 20, 2014, 07:01:40 am
Here's Webb from earlier this week:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2014-11-17/jim-webb-vs-humanitarian-intervention-and-the-clock

Quote
Webb focused his criticism of the Obama administration's policies on the 2011 Libyan intervention, which happened to be closely identified with the leadership of then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. "It was not a civil war," he said. "The logic that we used to go in was different than any situation that I can remember in terms of the use of force. There were no treaties at risk, there were no Americans at risk, there were no terrorist attacks coming out of Libya ... in the name of what was called 'humanitarian intervention'–this was the new concept that was enunciated–we established a new concept that the president can unilaterally decide what humanitarian conditions are, anywhere in the world."
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb launches exploratory committee! on: November 20, 2014, 03:34:31 am
Wow, he's actually going through with it.  Well, I guess he's prominent enough that Clinton will feel compelled to do at least a couple of debates, provided that Webb is still in the race a year from now.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What should Rob Portman do in 2016? on: November 19, 2014, 07:54:55 pm
It would shake things up considerably if a pro gay marriage Republican would run for the nomination -

John Bolton is pro-gay marriage, and is more likely to run than Portman, IMHO.
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: November 19, 2014, 03:51:42 pm
So it's now time to really start thinking about a title for the next season. Put on your thinking caps people!

Rudolph the Pleasant Side Dish

(or something else Christmas themed, since the next season is likely to take us until Christmas)

Entering Heaven with the Mind of a Little Child
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Politico ranks the relative likelihood of the GOP candidates running for the nom on: November 19, 2014, 06:56:17 am
Likelihood to run, according to Politico:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/2016-elections-republicans-to-watch-113014.html?hp=t2_r

1) Paul
2) Cruz
3) Jindal
4) Perry
5) Christie
6) Rubio
7) Santorum
8 ) Carson
9) Walker
10) Bush
11) Kasich
12) Portman
13) Pence
14) Fiorina
15) Bolton
16) Thune
17) Ryan
18) Huckabee
19) Graham
20) Romney

So, Pataki doesn't make the list?  The fact that he's already faked us out twice means that we shouldn't take his trial balloon seriously?

Also, I think Bolton should be higher.  It's true that the media ignores him, but that just makes him more likely to run.  Carson and Huckabee and the like can juice book sales by pretending to run for president but then not going through with it.  Bolton actually has to run in order for people to realize that he exists.

The top 10:


23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you know of any Atlas Forum users who have passed away? on: November 19, 2014, 06:41:04 am
Whenever we stop hearing from a non-banned poster for a period of six months or so, my assumption is that that person has passed away.  What other possible explanation could there be for their departure?

RIP Gabu, Lunar, and Sam Spade   Sad
24  General Politics / International General Discussion / Militants loyal to IS now control some Libyan territory on: November 19, 2014, 06:20:15 am
https://time.com/3593885/isis-libya-iraq-syria-terrorism-derna/

Quote
Islamist militants loyal to the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS) are now reportedly in control of the Libyan city of Derna near the Egyptian border.

The city is only a few hours from Tobruk, where the remnants of Libya’s central government fled to after being forced out of the capital Tripoli in the summer, CNN says. It adds that ISIS will now seek to exploit the country’s political turmoil to strike west along the Mediterranean coast.

Approximately 300 of the 800-strong force in control of Derna are reportedly hard-bitten Libyan jihadists who fought with ISIS’s al-Battar Brigade in Syria’s Deir Ezzor and later in Mosul, Iraq.
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: November 19, 2014, 05:52:58 am
Bushie, how do you know this thread and the advice/"ridicule" you receive are not part of God's plan for you and a message he is giving to you?

Because our advice is not bathed in prayer.


hahaha holy sh[inks] the clarence post right after it

Quote
Opebo and I were horsing around earlier- but you need to be careful over there [in Kenya]... sexual diseases are rampant

classic

I like Bushie's post from further down the page:

Quote
The trip to Kenya and the revelations that God has shown me in the days following Kenya have done a good job of refocusing my priorities.  My priorities are now Christ-centered and trying to advance His Kingdom.  I will still have my passions for politics, sports, and weather, but they will include Kenya politics, sports, and weather as well as American.  I also will still have fun.  My fun will just be directed in what will bring Jesus the most glory.

That sounds like he's saying that he had new revelations at that time that showed him how to bring Jesus glory in a way that he hadn't been before that trip.  But does Bushie honestly believe today that he's been living a Christ-centered life during these past ~2.5 years in a way that he hadn't been in the previous ~2.5 years?
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