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February 08, 2016, 07:36:16 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH-UMass Lowell/7 News Daily Tracking Poll Thread on: Today at 06:50:34 am
Today’s update (poll conducted Feb. 5-7):

http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-8%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230870.pdf

Dems

Sanders 56%
Clinton 40%

GOP

Trump 34%
Cruz 13%
Rubio 13%
Bush 10%
Kasich 10%
Christie 5%
Fiorina 4%
Carson 3%
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP debates gets 13.2 million TV viewers on: Today at 02:18:45 am
But I thought that no one watched debates on Saturday nights?!?

This fiction must be dispelled with.

Saturday is the lowest-watched night on TV by a large margin.  Put a prime time debate on network television any other night of the week except perhaps Friday, and the ratings would be much higher.  Broadcast TV will likely outdraw any cable debate on a similar day of the week, too.

Right...but the broadcast networks don't want to air debates on non-Saturdays, because they don't want to preempt their existing primetime schedules.  The cable news networks of course are happy to put one on on any day of the week.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Primary ballot access megathread on: Today at 02:15:53 am
All the candidates except Gilmore made it onto the Indiana ballot:

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2016/02/05/indianas-presidential-ballot-crowded-but-how-long/79892704/

I was looking up New York as well.  On this page:

http://www.elections.ny.gov

they’ve got the candidate filings for Clinton and Sanders, but didn’t see the candidate filings for the Republicans.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: primary/caucus day weather thread on: Today at 01:47:17 am
And now only a 20% chance of snow.  Projected high temp in Manchester = 30 degrees F.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will JerseyBoy stay in the race as long as he finishes top 4? on: Today at 01:18:16 am
If Rubio's debate gaffe does indeed cause him to seriously underperform his recent polling, then I wouldn't be surprised if the only dropouts we get this week are Fiorina and Gilmore.  Even the candidate finishing 6th place (whether that be Christie or someone else) might figure that if one debate can shake things up so much, then you might as well stay in for the next debate (coming up on Saturday), and see how things go.  By that time, post-New Hampshire polling will have sorted itself out somewhat, and, if nothing earth-shattering occurs in that next debate, one or more low-polling candidates would then drop out in the following week (still before South Carolina).
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / GOP debate gets 13.2 million TV viewers on: Today at 12:18:16 am
http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2016/02/republican-debate-abc-new-hampshire-218909

Quote
ABC's Republican primary debate on Saturday night attracted 13.2 million viewers.

The network also reported 1.3 million livestream views. It was the network's best performance on a Saturday night with non-sports programming in over 14 years.

It's positive news after a string of declining debate ratings. The last Republican debate, hosted by Fox News, brought in 12.5 million viewers.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: AR-Hendrix College: Cruz +4, Hillary +32 on: Today at 12:08:07 am
Full #s:

Dems

Clinton 57%
Sanders 25%

GOP

Cruz 27%
Rubio 23%
Trump 23%
Carson 11%
Fiorina 4%
Kasich 4%
Bush 1%
Christie 1%
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Multiple internal polls show Rubio crashing/Kasich surging today in NH on: February 07, 2016, 10:56:05 pm
What are we to make of polls taken on Super Bowl Sunday?  Response rates must be terrible.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH-ARG daily tracking poll thread on: February 07, 2016, 09:18:45 am
Today’s update (Feb. 5-6):

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/arg-23697
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/arg-23696

Dems

Sanders 53%
Clinton 42%

GOP

Trump 31%
Kasich 17%
Rubio 17%
Bush 9%
Cruz 9%
Christie 5%
Fiorina 2%
Carson 1%
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / NH-CNN/WMUR: D: Sanders 58% Clinton 35%; R: Trump 33% Rubio 16% Cruz 14% on: February 07, 2016, 09:13:18 am
CNN/WMUR poll of New Hampshire, conducted Feb. 3-6:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/07/politics/new-hampshire-poll-full-results/index.html

Dems

Sanders 58%
Clinton 35%

GOP

Trump 33%
Rubio 16%
Cruz 14%
Kasich 11%
Bush 7%
Fiorina 6%
Christie 4%
Carson 2%
Gilmore 0%
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: latest Betfair odds on: February 07, 2016, 09:07:34 am
Post-debate update: Rubio headed down…

Up: Trump, Bush, Kasich, Christie
Down: Rubio

Democrats
Clinton 81.3
Sanders 18.3

Republicans
Rubio 50.3
Trump 27.0
Cruz 13.4
Bush 7.8
Kasich 2.2
Christie 1.9
Ryan 1.1
Carson 0.8
Romney 0.2
Fiorina 0.2
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Will any pollsters be bold enough to try a one night NH sample on Monday? on: February 07, 2016, 03:32:29 am
Saturday night polling isn't late enough to get any post-debate fallout.  Sunday polling is going to be unreliable because of the Super Bowl.  Ideally, someone should do a one night poll on Monday night and release it on Tuesday morning, but will anyone actually do this?  I wouldn't put it past Gravis or ARG, but I doubt any of the more respected pollsters will try.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Rubio's "let's dispel with this fiction" comments become his "Dean Scream"? on: February 07, 2016, 03:17:04 am
More like his "oops" moment.

Agreed. Dean Scream didn't actually kill Dean's candidacy. The oops moment almost certainly killed Perry's. This will kill Rubio's candidacy.

Perry was already well on the decline prior to Oops. That just sealed his fate. The same was true of Dean.

This is somewhat different because Rubio was actually on an upward trajectory.

OK, so maybe it's his version of Hillary Clinton's "illegal immigrant driver's licenses", with Chris Christie in the role of Chris Dodd?  Tongue
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who lost the ABC debate? on: February 07, 2016, 02:35:46 am
Biggest loser of the night was us, the home viewing audience, as we were denied the chance to hear how President Carson would solve the North Korea problem.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who lost the ABC debate? on: February 07, 2016, 01:08:35 am
For those who missed, here's the moment when Rubio had his meltdown:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuYbDP2kDfg
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie to appear on SNL with comedy legend Larry David! on: February 07, 2016, 12:09:29 am
Sanders changed his Twitter profile pic to Larry David for the evening:


17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie to appear on SNL with comedy legend Larry David! on: February 07, 2016, 12:05:05 am

18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC Manchester, NH GOP debate @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 06, 2016, 10:52:26 pm

19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC Manchester, NH GOP debate @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 06, 2016, 10:45:00 pm
Does Cruz get a rebuttal on Trump's closing statement?
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC Manchester, NH GOP debate @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 06, 2016, 10:40:21 pm
Q: Senator Rubio, who is going to win the Super Bowl?

Rubio: Barack Obama knows EXACTLY what he's doing with respect to the Super Bowl...


Watching Chris Hayes's twitter feed too?

No, did he say the same thing?
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC Manchester, NH GOP debate @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 06, 2016, 10:37:00 pm
Q: Senator Rubio, who is going to win the Super Bowl?

Rubio: Barack Obama knows EXACTLY what he's doing with respect to the Super Bowl...
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC Manchester, NH GOP debate @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 06, 2016, 08:21:56 pm
Again, it should be noted that Trump didn't *publicly* say the Iraq War was a mistake until a year after it started.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC Manchester, NH GOP debate @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 06, 2016, 08:16:28 pm
That Lindsey Graham and John McCain skit .......

They work as Statler and Waldorf.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC Manchester, NH GOP debate @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 06, 2016, 08:13:49 pm
The TV schedule says this program is supposed to last 3 hours (including commentary).  I'm assuming the debate itself will be 2 hours, while the rest if commentary?
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC Manchester, NH GOP debate @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 06, 2016, 08:10:48 pm
And so it begins...

All I'm getting is pre-debate coverage? Has it already started?

No, I guess it doesn't start for another 8 minutes.
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