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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 1992 if Perot Never Dropped Out on: Today at 12:35:05 am
Does Bush still try to sabotage the wedding of Perot's daughter in this counterfactual?  Tongue
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How might the GOP primary change if IRV was used? on: Today at 12:26:02 am
PPP often offers a full breakdown of second choices for supporters of all candidates in their primary polls, so you could use one of their most recent polls to do this exercise.  Of course, things will change drastically in the next six months, and several candidates will have dropped out by then, but this is just for fun anyway.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Chelsea's Mom on: July 06, 2015, 09:42:01 pm
Catchy and light hearted...though I'm not sure I'd describe Hillary as "sexy".

You don't find any of these paintings to be sexy?



4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Primary ballot access deadlines on: July 06, 2015, 08:45:03 pm
I found this list of ballot access deadlines from the 2012 cycle:



The primary calendar is starting a few weeks later this time, so not sure how that will impact things.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Primary calendar and delegate allocation megathread on: July 06, 2015, 08:40:59 pm
How long do states have to solidify their primary/caucus dates?

In the 2012 cycle, the RNC required states to have settled on their primary timing by Oct. 1, 2011.  However, they never actually punish states for missing that deadline.  Last time around, the New Hampshire primary date wasn't set until the first week of November.  Not sure if the deadline is the same this time, but like I said, if states don't get punished for missing it, it's not a very firm deadline anyway.  I think the DNC deadline might be a bit earlier, but again, no punishment for missing it.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2nd quarter fundraising megathread on: July 06, 2015, 08:31:26 pm
Also, her Super PAC raised $3.4 million:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/carly-fiorina-2016-fundraising-119783.html
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2nd quarter fundraising megathread on: July 06, 2015, 08:28:33 pm
Fiorina's numbers:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/2016-elections/carly-fiorina-raises-meager-1-4-million-in-two-months-20150706

Quote
Republican presidential candidate Carly Fiorina raised only $1.4 million in the second quarter—far less than any of her rivals for president who have released campaign fundraising totals.

The former Hewlett-Packard CEO declared her candidacy for president May 4, and the $1.4 million figure represents her haul throughout the rest of May and June. In contrast, Sen. Ted Cruz announced that he has amassed more than $14 million since his announcement in late March. Neurosurgeon Ben Carson's campaign said he has raised more than $10 million since early March, and $8.3 in the past three months.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6) on: July 06, 2015, 08:15:09 pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-07-06/the-republican-debate-selection-process-is-a-new-wild-card-in-presidential-politics

Quote
For candidates on the bubble, the most frustrating thing about the process may be its uncertainty and near-randomness. An analysis by the Bloomberg Politics polling team of the entry criteria released by Fox News suggests that it will be virtually impossible to know which candidates will qualify for the first debate until just days before the event, regardless of what they do in the coming weeks. And because of the varying sample sizes, margins of error, and targeted respondents featured in different national polls, the winners and losers of this new debate primary season may have little relation to their prospects of becoming the eventual nominee. Methodologically, they might as well be drawing straws.

“A microscope has not yet been invented that enables us to determine the difference between the 10th-place person and the 11th-place person,” said Ken Goldstein, a professor of politics at the University of San Francisco and a polling analyst for Bloomberg Politics. “That difference, literally, will be less than half of a percentage point. And maybe even less than that.”
9  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of Thomas J. Whitmore on: July 06, 2015, 08:01:10 pm
Loved his debate with Bob Dole on Saturday Night Live.  I don't remember all the details of the back and forth, but there was an exchange that went something like this:

Whitmore: My family leave law has been a great benefit to the average American.
Dole: The average American is dead!
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP Primary: Loser in Florida on: July 06, 2015, 06:14:13 pm
About 25 states will have voted at that point (including TX, FL, IL, OH…), so I think the race will largely be decided.  In which case, it wouldn't really matter whether the loser stays in or not.
11  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Petition to Ban: Matti McBurr on: July 06, 2015, 02:46:13 pm
Why cant the mods IP ban atheist

Ban one IP, he moves to another.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2nd quarter fundraising megathread on: July 06, 2015, 08:45:02 am

But he only has a testing the waters committee at this point, doesn't he?  I don't actually remember what the fundraising limits are on that.  It's not the same as a formal campaign or an exploratory committee.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Paul raising $ from the cannabis industry on: July 06, 2015, 04:53:25 am
http://www.denverpost.com/election/ci_28410370/rand-paul-visits-denver-raises-weed-money-quest

Quote
For the first time ever, a major party candidate for president of the United States raised money from the legal weed industry.

Rand Paul, a U.S. Senator from Kentucky running for the Republican nomination for president, raked in thousands of dollars Tuesday when he held a fundraiser in conjunction with the Cannabis Business Summit at the Denver Convention Center.

Later in the day, he rallied with supporters and held a private fundraiser at the Denver Athletic Club.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Iowa ad wars have begun on: July 06, 2015, 01:22:48 am
http://wqad.com/2015/07/05/donald-trumps-campaign-around-iowa-includes-private-jet-tour/

Quote
In some cases, like Iowa, it already means actual TV ads. Rick Perry’s super PAC is already spending in the Hawkeye State. And CNN’s Sara Murray shares reporting on how other campaigns and organizations are doing the planning, and rate shopping, to get ready for their own advertising launches.

“(Rick Perry’s camp is) making the case that being there early helps them get more buck for their — or better, you know, bang for their buck,” said Murray.

“You also have Bobby Jindal’s super PAC already going up on the air in Iowa. And Marco Rubio, his campaign tried to do the shrewd thing where they prebuy $10 million in advertising. … A bunch of television stations said ‘No, sorry, you can’t buy this early, because we don’t know how much demand there is going to be and how much inventory we will have to sell.'”
15  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Petition to Ban: Matti McBurr on: July 06, 2015, 12:34:09 am
Spammer, troll, idiot posting disgusting images, more of the same, but now a new poster.

He was muted a few hours ago, shortly after whenever he made his most recent post.  Nym will presumably ban the account whenever he logs in next.

Quote
Could it be possible that we try to actually find this craphead who is doing this?

I don't know if this is still more Atheist2006 shenanigans or not.  We do know Atheist's real identity, but not sure if this is the same guy.  It's the same guy as "James Roberts" (the account from a few days ago that was doing the same thing), but that's as much as I know.

In any case, if we did know, what are you suggesting as a remedy?  Angry mob with pitchforks?


How about actually deleting his disgusting pics?

I can't do that because only Dave and Nym can delete stuff from the boards he posted on.  We have to wait for them.
16  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Petition to Ban: Matti McBurr on: July 06, 2015, 12:16:51 am
Spammer, troll, idiot posting disgusting images, more of the same, but now a new poster.

He was muted a few hours ago, shortly after whenever he made his most recent post.  Nym will presumably ban the account whenever he logs in next.

Quote
Could it be possible that we try to actually find this craphead who is doing this?

I don't know if this is still more Atheist2006 shenanigans or not.  We do know Atheist's real identity, but not sure if this is the same guy.  It's the same guy as "James Roberts" (the account from a few days ago that was doing the same thing), but that's as much as I know.

In any case, if we did know, what are you suggesting as a remedy?  Angry mob with pitchforks?
17  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Record number of US citizens are leaving the US to live abroad on: July 05, 2015, 10:51:14 pm
We should have overseas congressional districts…

Includes Country Specific Estimates

Based on the estimates in the above, 6 districts.  But 7 might fit a bit better:

OS-1: Canada and British Isles 624K
OS-2&3: Mexico 1110K
OS-4: South America, Central America, and Caribbean 713K
OS-5: Mainland Europe 813K
OS-6: East and Southeast Asia 495K
OS-7: Miscellania: Near East, Oceania, South Asia, and Africa 571K

So under this scheme, I'd be voting in a congressional district of Miscellania?  If East/Southeast Asia is a separate district, then I guess I wouldn't be voting in the same district as opebo, even though he's not all that far away in the grand scheme of things.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: July 05, 2015, 04:32:16 pm
Palin hasn't officially ruled it out, but she hasn't said anything for several months.

Almost exactly one month ago, she said:

Asked if she were planning to run, Palin said, “Well, we’ll see what happens . . . in the next year or so, we’ll see.”
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal on: July 05, 2015, 10:38:14 am
What's the best English language website from which to track results?
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2nd quarter fundraising megathread on: July 05, 2015, 10:29:10 am
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-07-05/ted-cruz-raised-10-million-in-second-quarter-campaign-says

Quote
Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz raised about $10 million in the second quarter, his campaign said Sunday.

Combined with $4.3 million the first-term Texas senator raised in the week after his campaign kickoff in March, plus $37 million that allied super-PACs have said they have raised, he “will have the resources, the manpower, and the energy to compete vigorously in all early state contests, as well as nationally in the Super Tuesday states on March 1st,” Cruz's campaign said in a statement.

The campaign did not disclose or immediately respond to questions about its spending or cash on hand for the second quarter.

Cruz's campaign credited the fundraising performance to grassroots support and social-media attention. It got 175,000 contributions between the start of the campaign and the end of the second quarter for an average contribution of $81, from 120,000 “unique donors.”
21  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Record number of US citizens are leaving the US to live abroad on: July 05, 2015, 07:30:17 am
We should have overseas congressional districts…
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Chelsea's Mom on: July 05, 2015, 03:12:36 am
Here's what I'm presuming is now IceSpear's favorite song:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrEmQk3u88U
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Primary calendar and delegate allocation megathread on: July 05, 2015, 01:59:19 am
If Iowa went on January 25, would it be subject to the "super-penalty" of only having 9 delegates?

In principle, yes, but I don't think it would be enforced.

Quote
Also, from http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-presidential-primary-schedule-calendar/, we have this tentative schedule:

February 1: Democratic Iowa Caucus
February 2: Republican Iowa Caucus
February 9: New Hampshire
February 20: South Carolina
February 23: Nevada Caucuses

There's nothing to suggest that the Dems and Republicans will vote on different days in Iowa.  I would assume that they'll hold the caucuses on a Monday (the traditional day of the week for them), and will either be Jan. 25 or Feb. 1.

I also haven't seen anything to suggest that Nevada will be able to pull off a weekday caucus.  Feb. 23rd is when they were trying to schedule the *primary* for, when it looked like they might hold a primary.  But the legislature ended up not passing legislation to establish a primary, so it'll be caucuses again for them, presumably once again held on a Saturday.

Quote
February 2: Colorado Republican Caucus (This doesn't seem right, but okay...)

Both parties in Colorado have the option of holding caucuses on either the first Tuesday of Feb. or the first Tuesday of March.  I guess the Republicans haven't yet said which one they'll pick, but everyone expects them to go with March, so that they don't get hit by the super penalty.

The FHQ blog is the most reliable in terms of listing scheduling for everything from March 1 or later.  Everything before that is kind of speculative though, because we don't know what's going to happen with NV and SC.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Primary calendar and delegate allocation megathread on: July 05, 2015, 12:30:53 am
OK, first off, feel free to ask me anything that's unclear about the primary calendar or delegate allocation.  There's a lot I don't know, but again, many of the same questions keep coming up on this board, so I'll do my best.

To get things started, the biggest stumbling block to an "orderly" primary season that starts in either late January or early February would have been the fact that the New York primary is scheduled for Feb. 2nd.  However, that looks to be resolved now that both the state Assembly and state Senate have passed a bill that moves the primary to April 19:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/still-unresolved-new-york-senate-passes.html
http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/april-19-presidential-primary-bill.html

I assume Cuomo will sign this, and then the path is clear for IA/NH/NV/SC to get their desired calendar placement.  That means Iowa on either January 25 or February 1, still TBD.

One question still unresolved about the ordering of those though, is that we don't know if NV will come before or after SC, or if it'll be different between the two parties.  The Republicans in SC are not going to allow their primary to go any later than Feb. 20, under any circumstances.  Going a week later would put them just a few days before Super Tuesday, and they'll never agree to that.  However, the DNC calendar has SC slotted after Nevada, on Feb. 27:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/08/25/the-early-2016-primary-calendar-is-now-set-it-will-change/

So will the South Carolina primary be on different days for the two parties?  That's possible.  It's what they did in 2008.  So yes, we might see something like:

Feb. 1: Iowa
Feb. 9: NH
Feb. 20: NV(D), SC(R)
Feb. 27: NV(R), SC(D)
Mar. 1: Super Tuesday

OTOH, the SC Dems might agree to the Feb. 20th date, to share the date with the state Republicans.  In that case, what happens to Nevada?  Will it go later, or will it be bumped up a week, moving Iowa and NH a week earlier?  It's still unclear.

More later...
25  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Iran is Back-Tracking on Nuclear Deal on: July 05, 2015, 12:19:50 am
I can't get a good read on what's really going on here.  From what I've seen, it sounds like, while the Supreme Leader is offering lots of bluster on "We will never agree to X, Y, and Z", the actual negotiators keep getting closer and closer to agreement, though it may be a never-ending iteration towards a deal that never materializes.
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