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September 29, 2016, 10:16:55 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 3rd party/Indie ballot access megathred on: September 11, 2016, 01:05:34 pm
Final ballot access:

Johnson/Weld (L): All 50 states + DC

Stein/Baraka (G): 44 states + DC, 3 write-in states (GA, NC, IN), not on the ballot in NV, OK, SD

Extremely impressive for both. Hopefully they get included in the exit polls.

Why wouldn't they be included in the exit polls?  Particularly Johnson.  If Johnson even gets 3% of the vote and they don't include him in the exit poll, the exit pollster would look ridiculous.
102  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Sleeping on airplanes on: September 11, 2016, 12:50:44 pm
No, not a good sleep.  Not even on the 14 hours flights between Sydney and LAX.  That's why when I lived in Australia, the #1 medium on which I watched movies was airplanes.  That'll probably changed now that I'm back in the US though.
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Gary Johnson win a state on: September 11, 2016, 10:50:45 am
No, but he may win a county or two.

What county is he most likely to win?

Also, in how many counties will he come in second?
104  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Will jfern ever return? on: September 11, 2016, 10:35:43 am
bronz4141 is also gone, lol.

Bronz is currently on a 30 day temp ban that'll expire in a few days.
105  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Where Were You On 9/11? on: September 10, 2016, 11:03:22 pm
I was in grad school, and didn't realize anything was happening until I got to my class and the professor mentioned it before class started.
106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why do we call Clinton by her first name, but Donald by his last? on: September 10, 2016, 09:52:05 pm
When people think of women, they call by their first name.

So everybody calls Pelosi "Nancy" and everybody calls Palin "Sarah"?
107  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will the Republican Party turn openly pro-Putin? on: September 10, 2016, 02:12:04 pm
Jonathan Chait has a decent taxonomy of some of the different flavors of patriotism here:

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/09/colin-kaepernick-and-patriotism-in-the-obama-era.html

As he notes, Trump’s version of patriotism “expresses a love of country simply because it is one’s own”, not connecting it to any higher ideals.  Trump doesn't believe in American exceptionalism.  He just thinks Americans should look out for America because it’s our own country, not because it occupies any kind of moral high ground and stands for any exceptional ideals.

That’s Trump’s version, but Trump still seems to stand very much apart from most other leading Republicans on this.  Sure, some, like Pence, back up Trump when he says this stuff, but he’s pretty much just following along because he has to.  He isn’t espousing it on his own initiative.  Most other Republican politicians are still in the Bush/McCain/Romney mode of “American exceptionalism”: America is great in large part because of its values.

Since Trump is going to lose in two months, I don’t see these folks embracing the Trump-ist version of patriotism long term.  They are still going to be in “American exceptionalism” mode, which presumably means that they’ll be mostly anti-Russia, and will accuse Clinton of being soft on Putin.

I mean, I just don’t see any evidence that the whole GOP is going to start being Trump-ist on foreign policy.  Plenty of Republicans try to excuse Trump’s foreign policy comments, but they’re mostly not running on it themselves, as far as I can tell.  Who, other than Trump himself, would you actually say are the leading proponents of Trump-style foreign policy at the moment?
108  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Poll: Big majority of Austrian Turks would leave the country if they got money on: September 10, 2016, 01:02:06 pm
FYI, I am willing to leave the Atlas forum for 100,000 Euros.


How much did you get to leave Australia?

Ha, good question.  Nothing.  I just got to stop paying rent on my too-expensive-for-its-size-by-American-standards apartment.  So in that sense I guess I gained money.
109  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: BREAKING: Trump endorsed by Jim Gilmore (R-VA) on: September 10, 2016, 12:13:02 pm
Trump still hasn't been endorsed by six of his Republican rivals from the primaries:

Bush
Cruz
Fiorina
Graham
Kasich
Pataki

I'm not holding my breath on any of those folks endorsing him in the next two months.  If they haven't done it by now, they probably won't.
110  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Civil War in Syria on: September 09, 2016, 06:41:13 pm
"US, Russia reach cease fire deal":

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russian-foreign-minister-lavrov-says-he-was-thinking-of-calling-it-a-day-on-syria-talks-with-the-united-states/2016/09/09/f37ca320-75ff-11e6-9781-49e591781754_story.html
111  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Poll: Big majority of Austrian Turks would leave the country if they got money on: September 09, 2016, 06:28:05 pm
FYI, I am willing to leave the Atlas forum for 100,000 Euros.


So now we know what you want.  However, we still don't know who you are.

NEVER ASK THAT QUESTION!

Tongue
112  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Black Mirror on: September 09, 2016, 05:41:18 pm
Some additional plot info on the upcoming episodes here:

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/09/09/black-mirror-netflix

Apparently, two of them will be shown at the Toronto International Film Festival in a few days.
113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump goes on Russia-state-owned RT to slam the US media on: September 09, 2016, 03:21:15 pm
KellyAnne Conway says the Trump campaign didn't realize that the interview would be broadcast on RT.  Trump isn't even president yet, and he's already getting bamboozled by Putin!  I thought he was supposed to be a great negotiator, who would never get tricked by foreign governments?  Tongue

https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/774231632987455488


114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: September 09, 2016, 09:53:56 am
A look at the online "Cruz 2020" cheerleaders:

http://www.chron.com/news/politics/texas/article/On-Facebook-already-a-cheering-section-for-Ted-9210693.php
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why do we call Clinton by her first name, but Donald by his last? on: September 09, 2016, 08:44:10 am
When there's no doubt as to which Clinton is being referred to (and there usually isn't), I refer to Hillary Clinton as "Clinton", just as I refer to Donald Trump as "Trump".

I'll call her Hillary when I start calling him Donald.

I'd be slow to attribute it to sexism because here in the UK there's no apparent move to refer to our new Prime Minister as "Theresa", just as Merkel is rarely referred to as Angela. And Thatcher was very often referred to by her surname, just as Blair was sometimes referred to as "Tony".

I feel the trend is definitely there. Merkel gets called Angie a fair bit, just like Thatcher got called Maggie a lot of the time. Female politicians in Sweden definitely get referred to by first name a lot more. There are exceptions, of course, but I do think it's a subconscious form of sexism.

I basically agree, though I think the Hillary Clinton case is somewhat different from the other examples, in that Clinton herself has used "Hillary" in her campaign branding since the beginning of her political career, as far as I can tell.  So in her case, it seems like more of her own choice, to separate herself from her husband.

That said, as I speculated 9 years ago:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=66215.0

this could change once she's actually elected president, as it sounds awkward to refer to someone as "President Hillary".  So "President Clinton" will probably be the default.  That said, there'll still be some people using just "Hillary".
116  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: if Clinton wins, will Sanders run for pres in 2020? on: September 08, 2016, 08:30:38 pm
This topic has been moved to Presidential Election Trends.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=245280.0
117  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC on: September 08, 2016, 02:05:56 pm
Quite the education gap in North Carolina…

whites w/ college degree:
Trump 42%
Clinton 38%
Johnson 16%

whites without college degree:
Trump 62%
Clinton 18%
Johnson 16%

Also, Trump is in third place among non-whites in both NC and OH….

North Carolina non-whites:
Clinton 71%
Johnson 14%
Trump 10%

Ohio non-whites:
Clinton 62%
Johnson 10%
Stein 9%
Trump 9%
118  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Poll: Big majority of Austrian Turks would leave the country if they got money on: September 08, 2016, 01:49:15 pm
FYI, I am willing to leave the Atlas forum for 100,000 Euros.
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If you're a Clinton supporter, how would you describe your mood about the polls? on: September 08, 2016, 11:27:16 am
Suffice it to say, the fact that polls include people counted as "undecided" or "don't know", all of whom either have to vote for *someone* or stay home, means that most candidates will be "underestimated by the polls" (as they're presumably going to get some votes out of the "undecided" pie).  The fact that Trump only did about as well as the polls predicted (and not better) during most of the primary season was itself unusual.  Most candidates "beat the polls" by getting some undecideds.
120  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If you're a Clinton supporter, how would you describe your mood about the polls? on: September 08, 2016, 09:05:15 am
They should be at least nervous. I think Trump is going to vastly outperform the polls; I think we'll see that there are a lot of Trump voters out there who weren't willing to admit to supporting Trump to pollsters but will do so in the secrecy of the voting booth.

thus far there has been no evidence of that. Only evidence of the opposite: people who are saying they'll vote for Trump, but as soon as they get in that voting booth, reconsider that choice. And admittedly, even evidence of that is scant.

Well there can't be any definitive evidence for it (or against it for that matter) until the results of the election are in. But we do have some circumstantial evidence that supports my concern, and that is that Trump does better I online polls than in live polls.

That's what people always say when there's a difference between live interview polls and IVR or internet polls.  The implication then is that the IVR and internet polls are the ones we should believe, because people will lie to other humans but won't lie to a robot.  But where is the evidence that IVR and internet polls are more accurate than live interview polls?  If anything, it's the opposite.  Live interview polls tend to be a bit more accurate, on average.  The differences between them are not necessarily due to poll respondents lying, but may be due to differences in sample construction.  I mean, online pollsters definitely face a bigger challenge in trying to select a representative sample of the electorate.
121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who won the Commander in Chief forum? on: September 07, 2016, 09:07:17 pm
Republicans, WHY DID YOU NOMINATE THIS GUY.

Well, a majority of them didn't vote for him...
122  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NBC Commander-in-Chief Forum @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: September 07, 2016, 09:05:15 pm
Trump on Putin...


123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NBC Commander-in-Chief Forum @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: September 07, 2016, 07:48:53 pm
"If he says great things about me, I'm gonna say great things about him." -- Trump on Putin
124  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NBC Commander-in-Chief Forum @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: September 07, 2016, 07:45:42 pm
Lol, Trump just touted Putin's strong poll numbers.
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NBC Commander-in-Chief Forum @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: September 07, 2016, 07:42:19 pm
Trump: I studied the body language of the intelligence people who briefed me, and I could tell that they hate Obama.
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