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December 20, 2014, 03:51:41 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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101  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XIX: Melancholy and the Infinite Napping on: December 05, 2014, 11:31:11 pm
Also, are you suggesting that God speaks to people directly? I'm always the first to condemn religion, but that's less religion than it is schizophrenia. Though those two maladies are, of course, also correlated.

In point of fact, God spoke directly to Bushie back in 2012, and told him to move to Kenya.  Here's Bushie's transcript of the exchange:


The quote was "I have prepared you for 30 years for this big move.  Be still, and know that I am God, Be strong and of a good courage.  I have work left for you in Oklahoma, but you will not be a permanent resident of Oklahoma.  These men at Maisha need your help.  Don't worry about how you will get down there and don't worry about anything, I've got you in my arms.  Every hair on your head is numbered.  I know every thing about every one of your days before they even happen.  Be Still, and Know that I am GOD."
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: December 05, 2014, 11:14:45 pm


Mitt Romney held meetings with donors in New York this week that left one attendee convinced he is running for president again in 2016.

A member of Romney’s inner circle who spoke to Business Insider said the former governor of Massachusetts traveled to New York City on Monday where he met with key financial backers of his past campaigns to lay the groundwork for a 2016 White House bid.

The source, who was at one of the meetings, said other attendees included Time Warner CEO Stephen Ross, New York Jets Owner Woody Johnson, and hedge funders Julian Robertson and Paul Singer.

Someone who is most likely the same source expressed a similar sentiment to Politico:


A senior Republican who has met with Mitt Romney describes the 2012 GOP nominee’s pitch to Wall Street donors in recent meetings this way: “He tells people not to commit to a candidate that is not their first choice and that they aren’t excited about. He does not think much of the current field and does not think it is jelling. He still views himself as the leader of the establishment wing of the Republican Party.

“It’s definitely a change in his message [tilted more toward running].” The Republican added that Romney’s decision does not depend on whether or not Jeb Bush gets in. “He does not feel he owes the Bushes anything and does not think Jeb is the defacto leader of the establishment GOP.”
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Dems: Would you be mad at Hillary if she didn't run? on: December 05, 2014, 10:53:58 pm
She would never lead so many people on and intentionally damage the party by abruptly not running when every sign shows she will.

To be perfectly honest, it's not clear to me that there would be any damage to the party if she "abruptly" announced that she's not running.  There would be a wide open Democratic field, and a mad scramble among numerous candidates to get in the race, but I don't think the resulting contest would necessarily damage the party, nor (as I said in this thread) do I think that whoever would emerge from such a primary would necessarily be a weaker general election candidate than Clinton.  She looks like the strongest now because her name recognition is near 100% while most of the others are below 50%, but it seems plausible to me that some other hypothetical Democratic nominee would turn out to be just as strong.

Sure, it would mean that the Republican candidates would have started running earlier than the Democratic candidates, but who cares?  We're millions of news cycles away from November 2016, so that doesn't really matter.
104  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XIX: Melancholy and the Infinite Napping on: December 05, 2014, 07:23:44 pm
If you're only living at your Tulsa apartment a couple of days a month, why don't you cancel your cable there so you have one less thing to pay for?  There's still plenty of sports on the broadcast networks.

I mean seriously, how much does that cable package cost per month?
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: December 05, 2014, 07:18:55 pm


Publicly, Perry has said he would make up his mind about running next spring. Those who have met with him recently say he seems genuinely on the fence about 2016, repeatedly volunteering that he still is thinking it through.

"It's absolutely unclear from everything he told us whether he wants to run or not," said Aparna Mathur, resident scholar in economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. "He was very explicit that he hasn't decided."
106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Kasich hugs the center on Common Core / immigration / Medicaid expansion on: December 05, 2014, 07:15:59 pm
Covering Kasich at the RGA:


The prior day on a separate panel, [Kasich] was the lone Republican to express an openness to a path to citizenship for the millions who entered the country illegally and remained here.

“We may have to do it,” he said. “I know what they did. I know they jumped the line. I don’t like it. But in the end, it may be necessary. I’m open to it, I can tell you that.”
The latter is a decision that could be used against him by Medicaid-rejecting governors in a 2016 primary, but it’s clear Kasich views increasing coverage as a venerable accomplishment.

“We have single mothers who can get treatment who couldn’t get it,” he said during an RGA panel. “We’re helping a lot of people. To me, that’s a pretty good formula for my state; not everybody’s going to agree with it.”
In contrast to other governors, Kasich also went out of his way to defend Common Core – a set of national standards in math and English for students that has aroused vehement opposition from conservatives who covet local control.

But Kasich noted it was governors who originated the idea for the standards, and not Obama’s Department of Education.

“I think it makes a lot of sense,” he said. “This is governors doing it. And that’s what I thought we wanted.”
107  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Deus Naturae on: December 05, 2014, 08:27:39 am
Sick disgusting HP.

There's nothing wrong with finding a 15-year old attractive...

You're right BRTD, that is pretty disturbing, isn't it?  Thinking that it's OK to find a 15-year old attractive?  Sheesh.

But you know what's worse?  Apparently there used to be a poster on this forum who actually thought that adults having sex with minors should be legal.  And we're not just talking 15-year olds, but even 13-year olds.  See this post, if you don't believe me:


I mean, that's crazy, right?  Finding a minor attractive is one thing, but acting on it by having sex with said minor?  If you think Deus Naturae is a "sick disgusting HP" for his opinion, then you must think this other poster I'm talking about is a truly disgusting monster, right?  And I'm sure you must be thanking your lucky stars that said monster is no longer polluting this forum with his posts.
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: December 05, 2014, 07:24:58 am
Christie says he won't announce his 2016 intentions until "well into next year":

109  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / New Jersey legislature: no evidence that Christie was involved in bridge scheme on: December 05, 2014, 02:22:38 am

New Jersey lawmakers probing politically motivated traffic jams near the George Washington Bridge last year have found no evidence that Gov. Chris Christie was involved in the scheme.

Investigators found no conclusive evidence whether Christie was aware or not of the closures last year, but they say that two former Christie aides acted with "perceived impunity" and with little regard for public safety when they ordered the lanes closed, according to a 136-page interim report by a joint legislative panel that was obtained by news organizations Thursday night.
An investigation by the U.S. Attorney's Office is continuing. No one has been charged.
110  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Hot or Not - This Plank of Plywood on: December 05, 2014, 02:16:35 am
Wait a second - are we sure this particular piece of plywood is of consenting age?  I suspect you may have inadvertently selected the wrong photo from Google Images, Gully.  Just a friendly FYI before sinister rumors start to circulate.

I only count 15 rings in the tree that came from, so I don't think it's of consenting age in most countries.
111  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / national poll: Americans are uncertain creationists on: December 05, 2014, 01:39:43 am
A poll by the BioLogos Foundation which poll tests various nuances of people's beliefs on the origin of man, testing how certain people are about various propositions:


Most Americans do believe God created us. But the harder you press about historical claims in the Bible, the less confident people are. The percentage who stand by young-earth creationism dwindles all the way to 15 percent.

The survey, taken last summer and released on Tuesday, asked more than 3,000 people a range of questions about human origins. At Slate’s request, Hill provided detailed data and cross-tabulations on several questions. We’ve lined up the numbers here, from the most to least popular statements, to show how the poll numbers decline as you press people about their confidence in specific aspects of creationism.

Let’s start with the number at the top. When Americans are asked whether “God (or some other intelligent force) was involved in any way with the origin of humans,” two-thirds say yes. But when they’re asked to choose among three versions of this divine role—“direct involvement by miraculously creating humans,” “direct involvement but through the ordinary laws of nature,” or “indirect involvement by creating the laws of nature which led to the emergence of humans”—only half choose the “direct involvement” version. And when these people are asked about their level of certainty, the percentage who say they’re “absolutely” or “very” certain about a direct role drops to 30. (The next option below “very certain” was “somewhat certain.” Saying you’re only somewhat certain is basically a way of saying you’re not certain.)

112  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Petition for Atlas forum sex change for Nathan on: December 05, 2014, 01:23:37 am
This would probably be best accomplished by having Nathan/Madeleine email Dave.  Nobody else can change it, and I don't really see the point of a petition, since we're irrelevant in this.
113  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Reaganfan on: December 04, 2014, 10:55:13 pm
Only one poster on this forum has ever posted a video here of himself taking a shower.


Oh yes, I remember that. Hopefully someone finds it.

Here's the first of the "Pearls of Wisdom" video series, though it looks like he made most of them private (including, presumably, the shower one):


You can still watch him dance to the Cosby Show though:

114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: December 04, 2014, 08:48:32 pm
Bolton, Cruz, Fiorina, Huckabee, and Santorum were already scheduled to attend Steve King's "Iowa Freedom Summit" on Jan. 24.  But looks like Carson and Gingrich will join them:



Though Gingrich says it doesn't mean he's running.....though he nonetheless doesn't rule it out completely:

"I think it's very unlikely," Gingrich said. "I mean, it's a big mountain to climb and we've got a bunch of great candidates, most of whom are good friends of ours. And Callista and I are pretty comfortable. She's got her fourth 'Ellis the Elephant' book out and she's working on her fifth book, so we're doing a lot of stuff. We're staying pretty busy.

"But I would say that the opportunity to try to shape the debate, whether it's in Iowa or New Hampshire or wher eever, so that when candidates come out, informed people say to them, 'So, what is your position on this stuff?' In particular with national security and foreign policy, where I would argue we're losing the war. You cannot look at the trend lines since 1979 when the Iranians seized the American embassy and suggest that we are winning the war with radical Islamists.

Meanwhile, while Bolton is attending that event in Iowa, and is by all accounts still considering his own presidential bid, it looks like he's nonetheless advising Jindal on foreign policy as well:

115  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Moderators on: December 04, 2014, 06:11:36 pm
Dave and Nym have moderation powers on this board.  If you see a post here that you think is inappropriate, report it and Nym will take a look at it….eventually.
116  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / The first Clinton 2016 song on: December 04, 2014, 05:58:13 pm
117  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: UPDATE-OPOLY on: December 04, 2014, 04:34:17 pm
You guys keep knocking me down over the tiniest mistakes.  You've had your fun, but I'm done.  This is the end of Update-opoly forever.

Then why haven't you locked the thread?  Heck, if you really were done with Update-opoly, then you'd de-friend us all from Facebook-opoly, to prevent us from finding out updates about the game there and posting them here.

I'm afraid Update-opoly will never end.  As long as you're posting here, you won't be able to help yourself.  You may go on hiatus from time to time, but you'll always come back.
118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: December 04, 2014, 06:33:24 am
More Bob Ehrlich:


"What's driving this is the reaction I'm getting from audiences," [Ehrlich] said. In addition to a fourth New Hampshire trip, he's planning a visit to the battleground state of Florida, with a possible side foray to South Carolina, site of another early primary in 2016.

He hasn't set up a fundraising apparatus but is thinking about a next move: "There's been some discussion in the last week or so with some people who count."
As for Ehrlich, he's planning stops in Rhode Island and New York in the coming weeks.

How serious is he about a run?

"I wouldn't be spending so much time on something if it was not of interest to me," he said.

And Peter King is once again talking about running:


"I don't want the field to be dominated by people like Rand Paul,'' King says. "Rand Paul is an isolationist. ...This is an extremely dangerous world. We do not have the luxury of hiding. We cannot retreat within our borders. And I terribly resent his implication that the U.S. is somehow the cause of aggression around the world.''

And then there's Sen. Ted Cruz, another potential 2016-er. "Ted Cruz is a nihilist,'' King says. "The whole concept of shutting the government down and also this dogmatic opposition to any type of compromise,'' he says. "I can bargain, I can negotiate, I can move the ball down the field.''

So yeah, King, 70, a New York Republican, is thinking about running for president.

"I'm looking at it and I'm taking advantage of the opportunity to get up (to New Hampshire) and get around,'' King said. "This is not a Hillary-Clinton-type operation, or Jeb Bush, if he jumps in. If it did happen, it would be taking advantage of these (speaking) opportunities, getting (media) coverage up there, making it into a debate. And if there is a place to take the ball and run, I would be the guy to do it.''
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: December 04, 2014, 05:46:33 am
Clinton has met with potential campaign managers:


With weeks to go until she makes an announcement about her future, Hillary Clinton has started meeting with a broad range of political figures — including potential campaign managers, POLITICO has learned.

Clinton, who several people close to her describe as still not firmly decided on a campaign, met Wednesday with outgoing Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee executive director Guy Cecil, one of the two people most often described as a potential campaign manager for her 2016 campaign, people familiar with the get-together said.
Clinton has also spoken with Robby Mook, another-often mentioned potential campaign manager, about 2016, people familiar with the discussions said, but the details were unclear. Mook did not respond to an email.
Another potential campaign manager, EMILY’S List president Stephanie Schriock, recently declined to tell reporters at a day-long Ready for Hillary conference whether she had met with Clinton.
120  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: HBtP: Have you ever paid for pornography? on: December 04, 2014, 03:17:21 am
I guess people like him are the people that actually pay for it. Kind of like how most Internet Explorer users these days are clueless grannies.

So people don't use Netscape anymore?
121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: latest Betfair odds on: December 03, 2014, 11:48:13 pm
Update: Paul again alone in third place, but barely ahead of Romney/Christie/Walker.  Bush and Perry gain.

Bush 21.2
Rubio 15.4
Paul 11.4
Romney 11.1
Christie 10.9
Walker 10.5
Perry 8.4
Cruz 7.2
Ryan 4.0
Pence 3.4
Huckabee 3.3

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 22.7
Palin 20.3
Thune 12.0
Huckabee 9.0
Pawlenty 6.8
Gingrich 5.0
J. Bush 4.6
Barbour 4.0
Christie 3.2
Daniels 3.0
Rubio 1.9
122  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Hello I'm new on: December 03, 2014, 10:09:12 pm
Have you ever been a member here before?

Have you ever been within one hundred miles of Bakersfield, California?

And/or have you ever been a member of the Oregon Ballet Theater?

Have you ever expressed admiration for the Pro Deutschland and Die Freiheit parties in Germany?
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: December 03, 2014, 08:23:11 pm
Here's a list of what all the potential GOP candidates have said recently about whether they might run:


O'Malley hires Bill de Blasio's campaign manager:


Likely Democratic 2016 hopeful Martin O’Malley has added New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio’s campaign manager to his team as a senior adviser as he prepares for a White House run.

It’s the clearest sign that O’Malley is pushing forward with plans for a national campaign despite the challenge likely Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton poses for the rest of the field on the fundraising front.

Hyers is one of the top Democratic strategists nationally and oversaw de Blasio’s dark-horse primary win in 2013. He was President Barack Obama’s Pennsylvania state director in 2012 and previously worked for Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York.

Finally, Carson says the deadline for him making a decision on whether to run for president is May 1:


“I’m not sure that anybody wants to put themselves in that kind of horrible and stressful situation [running for president], that has never been a goal of mine,” Carson told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Wednesday.

He continued, “However, I do recognize that the direction of our country is not a good one…many Americans have been indicating that they want me to [run], so whether I want to do it or not, I do feel an obligation to at least very seriously consider the possibility.”

Carson said that the deadline for his decision is May 1. In a CNN poll released Tuesday, Carson was the second most popular GOP contender, following closely behind former Gov. Mitt Romney.
124  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will Fiorina be comparable to? on: December 03, 2014, 08:05:05 pm
Rick Scott: a self-serving billionaire who tried to buy an election.

I think she's a hundred millionaire, but not a billionaire.  She doesn't have enough money to buy the election on her own.
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who would be the strongest non-Hillary female nominee for the Democrats? on: December 03, 2014, 08:02:35 pm
Why do people keep talking about blandness? I mean, if the GOP is going to nominate Ted Cruz or Ben Carson I don't want to talk them out of it but blandness is irrelevant and in the last 50 years, no presidential candidate has lost because of blandness. Elections are won on the economy and Klobuchar (and Warren) would have an easier time selling the message than Gillibrand or Hillary.

Tbh, I think some here mistake "blandness" for "lack of notoriety".  Gillibrand is better known to people because she's from New York, the successor to Clinton, and Gillibrand's leadership on the sexual assault in the military issue.  Klobuchar hasn't broken out of the pack to become one of the most well known Senators, therefore she's "bland".  It's curious logic, but it seems to be a thing with people.  Anyone who isn't that well known (and isn't an obvious nut) is "bland".
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