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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: November 14, 2014, 06:37:10 pm
Portman says he will decide on whether to make a 2016 presidential run "after the first of the year":

http://www.wlwt.com/news/rob-portman-for-president-in-2016/29726636

McAuliffe predicts that Clinton will decide by mid-January:

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/run-2016/2014/11/14/terry-mcauliffe-60-days-until-hillary-decision
102  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: November 14, 2014, 09:07:59 am
I made it to work on this Friday.  I'm ready to close out Week 2.  I still only have a small headache.  It's nothing like the behemoth I had the past two mornings.  I haven't seen my boss, yet this morning, but I will thank him for letting me take off to get over this headache.  That's the least I can do.  Well, that and do my work as I know how and focus from 0800 to 1700 today.  Tonight is the last family dinner until Thanksgiving Day.  The third and final set of company leaves tomorrow morning.

So you move in with Grandma on Saturday?
103  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: The last movie you've seen thread 2014 on: November 13, 2014, 11:37:34 pm
I saw the following three SF/F movies on my flights earlier this week:

Predestination
What We Do in the Shadows
Snowpiercer

What We Do in the Shadows was probably my favorite of the three.  Has that come out in the US yet?  I guess it was produced in New Zealand, in collaboration with the folks behind Funny or Die.
104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ben Carson's bizarre campaign crew on: November 13, 2014, 10:44:48 pm
What exactly is Carson's appeal, I mean I would think Ted Cruz would have the far-right locked up, is it because of his "outsider" status?

I'd imagine Carson would be siphoning mainly from Cruz's base.
But I would think they would find Cruz more viable or polished than a some-dude who decided that he wants to play president

I don't know.  You'll have to take it up with the voters of New Hampshire.  Carson outperforms Cruz among all demographic groups in that poll, with the exception of self-described "very conservative" voters, who split evenly between Carson and Cruz.
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: November 13, 2014, 10:40:55 pm
NBC News divides up the GOP candidates into various stages of whether they're already running or not.  They say you've got five candidates effectively already running, though one of those is Carson, who may or may not be serious about it:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/no-announcements-yet-plenty-gop-2016-hopefuls-are-already-running-n246386

Quote
While none of them have made official announcements, Republicans involved in the process say that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Texas Gov. Rick Perry are courting key activists and donors, making repeated visits to the early primary states and are presidential candidates who just haven’t uttered the phrase “I’m running” yet.

Cruz is expected to headquarter his campaign in Houston and Paul in Louisville. Perry spent 15 days in Iowa over the last two years, more than any of the other Republican candidates, according to the website Democracy in Action. He says he will make more stops in the early primary states before making a formal decision on his candidacy in May or June.

A fifth Republican, neurosurgeon Ben Carson, is also giving speeches and making visits to Iowa and is effectively a candidate as well. But party operatives are not sure if Carson, who has never before held elective office, is trying to build a true campaign operation to win or will use his run as a way to bring attention to himself and his causes, as businessman Herman Cain did in 2012.

Then you've got the next tier of people, who have built up some of the infrastructure, but are seen as being in more of a holding pattern, as they decide what to do.  These are identified as:

Walker
Bush
Huckabee
Rubio
Jindal

And then a third group, "Republicans say another bloc of potential candidates could emerge, particularly if major figures like Bush or Huckabee either don’t run or struggle on the campaign trail".  This group includes:

Kasich
Pence
Portman
Ryan
Santorum

Odd that Santorum would be listed as being in the final category, given the high number of early state visits he's made, but whatevs.

Also, no love for John Bolton?  He doesn't even qualify for the third tier?
106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ben Carson's bizarre campaign crew on: November 13, 2014, 10:34:23 pm
Vernon Robinson is involved in Carson's campaign?  Oh dear...

Between Williams and Robinson, Carson 2016 is becoming a make-work program for black Republicans.  Who's next?  Oldiesfreak?
107  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: November 13, 2014, 10:04:42 pm
I know it is only 2030, but 9 hours sleep is looking mighty delicious right now.

Good luck on your delicious sleep.
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Ben Carson's bizarre campaign crew on: November 13, 2014, 09:37:48 pm
In addition to Carson business manager Armstrong Williams, best known for having secretly taken a $250,000 payment from the Bush administration to promote No Child Left Behind, Carson has a number of unorthodox choices in his political orbit:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/12/ben-carson-s-bizarrely-serious-seriously-bizarre-campaign-crew.html

Quote
Things seemed to head slightly south for Williams in 2005, when USA Today revealed that the Bush administration had paid him $250,000 to promote No Child Left Behind. Meaning, Williams has basically previously displayed his willingness to spout government propaganda in exchange for cash. As one source who knows Williams told me: "There are a lot of sleazy people in Washington, but there are not that many dumb ones. He falls into that category."
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Besides Williams, Carson has brought into the fold Terry Giles, a Houston businessman who achieved semi-fame for his involvement in a high-profile case involving Martin Luther King’s intellectual property in 2010. Giles seems to have no political experience to speak of.

And Carson’s indirect arm of his campaign—his PAC—is no less weird.

After hearing Carson speak at, yes, the National Prayer Breakfast (it is a law of the universe that any story about Carson will mention this event at least three times) John Philip Sousa IV, the great-grandson of the composer and conductor, and Vernon Robinson, a former U.S. Air Force captain and failed congressional candidate, decided to take it upon themselves to persuade him to run.
109  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH-PPP: Bush 15% Carson 15% Christie 11% Huckabee 11% Cruz 10% Paul 10% on: November 13, 2014, 06:40:13 pm
So the last poll of Iowa to include Carson (Fox) has him just 1 point out of first place, behind Huckabee, and the last poll of NH to include Carson (PPP) has him tied for the lead with Bush.
110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / NH-PPP: Bush 15% Carson 15% Christie 11% Huckabee 11% Cruz 10% Paul 10% on: November 13, 2014, 06:38:59 pm
PPP poll of New Hampshire:

http://images.politico.com/global/2014/11/13/newhampshiregopresults.html

Bush 15%
Carson 15%
Christie 11%
Huckabee 11%
Cruz 10%
Paul 10%
Rubio 7%
Ryan 7%
Perry 3%

Who leads among....?

moderates: Bush
somewhat conservative: Bush/Carson tie
very conservative: Carson/Cruz tie
men: Bush/Carson tie
women: Carson
Republicans: Bush
Independents: Carson/Paul tie
age 18-29: Carson
age 30-45: Huckabee
age 46-65: Bush/Carson tie
age 65+: Bush
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: November 13, 2014, 06:20:26 pm
Cruz supporters are launching a pro-Cruz Super PAC:

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/three-top-gop-candidates-just-took-major-steps-towards-2016-2014-11

More Carly Fiorina chatter:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2014-11-13/another-woman-may-be-running-for-president-in-2016

Quote
Fiorina, who declined an interview request, traveled extensively during the recent campaign season, stumping for Republicans and banking favors for a potential 2016 bid. Besides Iowa, her stops included other key presidential campaign states such as New Hampshire, South Carolina, North Carolina and Michigan. During the final week before the election, she was in Iowa for her second time in a month, spending two days boosting Republican U.S. House candidates. One of those candidates, Rod Blum, won, while the other, Mariannette Miller-Meeks, lost.
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[GOP Iowa activist Kim] Reem said she got the sense that Fiorina is getting ready to run for president, after seeing her speak in Iowa. "That was definitely the impression I had," she said. "This is Iowa. We've seen it before." Iowa's Republican Party chairman, Jeff Kaufmann, has also taken notice of Fiorina and is interested in getting her back to the state to help the party in some way.
112  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Harry Reid to run for Minority Leader on: November 13, 2014, 06:11:51 pm
Reid's now been reelected by the Democratic caucus.  However, while he ran unopposed, several Senate Dems have come forward to say that they didn't vote for him this time (though I'm unclear on who they did vote for).  The known anti-Reid votes include:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/claire-mccaskill-harry-reid-opposition-112858.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/mark-warner-votes-against-harry-reid-as-minority-leader/2014/11/13/726e3c9a-6b7e-11e4-b053-65cea7903f2e_story.html

McCaskill
Manchin
Heitkamp
Landrieu
Kaine
Warner
113  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Cultural observations on America on: November 13, 2014, 10:20:09 am
This thread makes me think about how much of a culture shock I'll endure if I'm lucky enough to study abroad in the UK during college. The difference, however, is that I've never been out of the country.

Yeah, the culture shock of visiting the UK is even greater than the culture shock you get from visiting Canada.
114  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: November 12, 2014, 09:29:36 pm
Well for whatever it's worth I'm now drinking a bottle of water.

Either God or Bushie's Native American / Kenyan spirit guide will now transfer some of your good health his way, so that he can go to work tomorrow.
115  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: November 12, 2014, 09:17:11 pm
Bushie, when was the last time you drank a full glass of water, straight up, with nothing added?
116  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: November 12, 2014, 04:43:59 pm
"Mike Huckabee rebuilds political team with an eye on another presidential run"

Quote
This week, Huckabee is leading more than 100 pastors and GOP insiders from early primary states on a 10-day overseas trip with stops in Poland and England.

Huckabee’s newly formed non-profit advocacy group, America Takes Action, has begun to serve as an employment perch for his political team, recently bringing on a number of experienced campaign operatives.

Advisers are already scouting real estate in Little Rock, Ark., for a possible presidential campaign headquarters.

Huckabee is scheduled to spend part of November holding private meetings with powerful GOP financiers in Las Vegas, New York, and California, gauging their interest in being bundlers for his possible campaign and asking for pledges of five-to six-figure donations to his aligned organizations. And he is planning two strategy sessions in December, in Little Rock and Destin, Fla., near his new Gulf Coast home, to discuss timing, potential staffing, and an opening pitch to voters.

In January, Huckabee will publish “God, Guns, Grits, and Gravy,” his latest manifesto on politics and culture.

In the same article, his daughter Sarah is quoted as saying “He is personally engaged and more aggressive in taking on meetings. He can’t wait to get back to South Carolina and Iowa.”

Meanwhile, following on Fox News's termination of Ben Carson's contract because of his running a pseudo-presidential campaign, they're now "evaluating Huckabee's status":

http://onpolitics.usatoday.com/2014/11/12/huckabee-2016-president-fox-news/

Evaluating his status?  Does that mean that they suspect him of being an illegal immigrant?  No.  Just a stealth presidential candidate who might give them trouble with the FEC:

Quote
“We are taking a serious look at Governor Huckabee’s recent activity in the political arena and are evaluating his current status,” said Bill Shine, executive vice president of programming for Fox News, in a statement Wednesday. “We plan on meeting with him when he returns from his trip overseas.”
117  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie reportedly says that he won't resign as gov. if he runs for president? on: November 12, 2014, 04:34:43 pm
Mike DuHaime (Christie's chief political strategist, who also worked for Giuliani in 2007/2008, and called Giuliani's lead in the polls "momentum-proof") confirms that Christie doesn't plan to resign as governor if he runs for prez:

link
118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Paul: Unclear if Clinton can handle "rigorous physical ordeal" of 2016 campaign on: November 12, 2014, 07:05:18 am
http://www.mediaite.com/online/rand-paul-not-sure-hillary-can-handle-rigorous-physical-ordeal-of-2016/

Quote
Before it even become clear that Republicans were going to officially takeover the Senate this past Tuesday night, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) has been waging an all-out war against his potential 2016 presidential opponent Hillary Clinton. Today, in an interview with Politico’s Mike Allen, he upped the ante by going after her age.

“I think all the polls show if she does run, she’ll win the Democrat nomination,” Paul said. “But I don’t think it’s for certain. It’s a very taxing undertaking to go through. It’s a rigorous physical ordeal, I think, to be able to campaign for the presidency.”
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: November 11, 2014, 06:52:26 pm
Sanders is visiting Iowa again next month:

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-11-11/bernie-sanders-is-serious-about-running-for-president

More Sanders:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2014-11-10/bernie-sanders-i-want-to-run-a-good-campaign

Quote
Sanders may run for president in 2016 as either a Democrat or an independent. While voter anger with both of the major parties might make an independent path more attractive for Sanders, he said running as an independent would be difficult because it would require erecting a 50-state political infrastructure. Ballot-access requirements also make it hard for independents.

Sanders said he wants to see if there's the significant grassroots support needed for a campaign that would push for raising the minimum wage, energy efficiency, more spending on infrastructure, and single-payer national health insurance.

"If there is not that support, I will not run" because "I want to run a good campaign and a meaningful campaign and a winning campaign," Sanders said. "If I can't do that, I'm not interested in running."
120  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: November 11, 2014, 01:44:39 am
From September 2013:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=178705.msg3856474#msg3856474

Quote
She was last walked yesterday by my parents going to training and back.  I was at a post-Kenya Missions Meeting in Edmond.  JJ is getting spayed today, so she probably won't feel like walking much, but with my parents at the lake this weekend, I'm going to try to get out there tomorrow evening before the game starts and again Friday night.  She should be a lot calmer when I walk her.  If she doesn't want to walk, I will at least be able to walk.

So yes, there is somewhere around Bushie's parents' place where it's appropriate to walk dogs, and they've done this before.

Also from Sept. 2013:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=178705.msg3858202#msg3858202

Inks:
Quote
I was going to say that, but a treadmill in a trailer probably would be a bit cramped.  Hence my suggestion to simply walk in place.

Bushie:
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I will probably walk in place this weekend.

So there, you don't even need to go outside.  Just walk in place for a while if there's nowhere to go outside.
121  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: November 11, 2014, 01:37:54 am
Bushie, you can just walk in a circle around your house with Blondie for 20 minutes. It'd be repetitive in terms of sight seeing but it'd be walking for 20 minutes.

I think that's what he said he did a few times last year, the last time he was living with his parents.  He claims that both he and his parents have taken Blondie for walks before, so they must have walked somewhere.
122  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: November 10, 2014, 09:50:27 pm
FWIW, 2 sandwiches is bare minimum, but 3 sandwiches is too much even for me.

2 is "bare minimum", while 3 is too much?  Doesn't that mean that 2 is both bare minimum and absolute maximum?
123  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: November 10, 2014, 09:49:29 pm
Bushie, here is an amazing invention that will help you walk even somewhere where there are no streetlights:



In any case, you're still at your parents' place for now, and won't move in with Grandma for another week, no?  Why don't you take the dogs for a walk while you're still staying with your parents?
124  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul on ISIS response: 'This war is now illegal' on: November 10, 2014, 09:42:06 pm
Is the mutual defense agreement with Iraq actually a treaty?

^^^
Anyone?  Seems like this would be a relevant distinction re: Why the US would automatically be at war if a NATO ally is attacked, but not if an ally is attacked with whom we have a mutual defense agreement that isn't actually a treaty.
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: November 10, 2014, 06:10:07 pm
Perry suggests he won't announce until May or June:

http://nhjournal.com/perry-insists-hes-still-at-least-six-months-away-from-a-decision-on-2016-run/

Quote
Texas Gov. Rick Perry insisted Monday he is still six to seven months away from making a decision on a second run for the GOP presidential nomination.
 
“May or June would be my guess when I’ll made a decision on whether I’m going to go forward,” he said in Manchester. He said he “learned some hard lessons” in 2011 and 2012, when his campaign flailed and ended early in the process.
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Is he leaning one way or another about running?
 
“I’m preparing. I think that’s the best answer I can give you. In the next five to six months I will make that decision and appropriately so.”
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