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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Clinton short list leaks? on: June 17, 2016, 08:17:53 pm
Politico says that "multiple high-level Republican sources" claim that the top names in consideration on the Trump short list are Christie, Gingrich, Sessions, and Fallin, with Christie and Gingrich the most likely:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/donald-trump-vice-president-224488

Quote
Ironically, the presumptive nominee’s own toxicity is making the job of finding a vice presidential nominee that much easier, because the short list is so short. Multiple high-level Republican sources said it is topped by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, with Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions a distant third and Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin also in the mix.

I hate it when they phrase things like this, though.  What is a "high-level Republican source"?  It's not clear to me if those are people who are directly involved in the veep search or not.

EDIT: That story also has another quote from Thune which has him throwing some shade on Trump:

Quote
“It’s not going to make it easier” to select a running mate, Sen. John Thune of South Dakota said of Trump’s recent behavior. The Senate’s No. 3 Republican, Thune himself has been mentioned as a potential running mate. “There are probably some good options for him. The question is: Are there people for whom he is a good option?”

And Corker also doesn't sound like he's someone seriously in contention anymore:

Quote
Just weeks ago, Corker entertained the vice presidential speculation around him, saying he had no reason to believe he was being vetted but refusing to rule anything out. Now, he can’t bring himself to even discuss Trump.

“I don’t want to talk about any of that,” the senator said in an interview.
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should Sanders be given a speaking slot at the DNC if he refuses to endorse on: June 17, 2016, 07:45:06 pm
Provided that every reasonable accommodation, and even above and beyond what he deserves (which is a lot) has been made for him, if he still refuses to endorse Hillary, unfortunately I'd have to say no. It'll hurt in the GE. But it's better to have a unified voice than "a house divided." Besides, I can't remember the last time a person was given a major convention speaking slot who used their speech mainly to advertise their own causes, but wouldn't endorse the nominee. Ted Kennedy 1980?

Technically, if he forces a rollcall vote on nomination, he will be able to do a speech before the vote.

True, but it wouldn't necessarily be in primetime.

Maybe the Clinton people will engineer it so that such a speech takes place at 3am.  Tongue
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Clinton short list leaks? on: June 17, 2016, 07:27:43 pm
Warner says he’s not being vetted, and he hopes that Clinton picks Kaine:

http://pilotonline.com/news/government/politics/virginia/sen-warner-said-he-s-not-in-the-running-to/article_979b3b25-2dee-5240-8af9-1b47b050fddb.html

Quote
“I’m not being vetted. I don’t expect to be vetted,” the Virginia Democrat said in a phone interview.

Instead, Warner said, he wants Clinton to choose a fellow Virginian, Sen. Tim Kaine.

“I’ve known Tim for 35 years. I think he’s got bipartisan appeal,” Warner said, noting that Kaine has “really shown his chops” in his forceful arguments over the proper use of the military and his demands that Congress vote on the use of American forces against the Islamic State group.

Of course, there’s no indication that any short listers have been contacted yet, so Warner wouldn’t actually know if he was in consideration.
104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: "Republicans consider convention challenge to Trump" megathread on: June 17, 2016, 07:02:00 pm
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/anti-trump-gop-delegates-224495

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Dozens of delegates to the Republican National Convention have launched an effort to dislodge Donald Trump as the GOP’s presidential nominee next month.
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Steve Lonegan, who ran Ted Cruz’s organization in New Jersey before the Texas senator quit the race, is one of the leaders of the largely grass-roots effort, which convened a conference call Thursday night. The call included 30 to 40 participants, most of whom were delegates, according to multiple people on the call.

“We have another call Sunday night, which I think will be huge. Every hour I’m getting contacted from people around the country. It’s pretty remarkable,” said Lonegan, who said he’s hoping to double the number of participants on the next call.

The WaPo notes that the convention rules committee meets July 14-15, so those are the key dates to make something happen:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/dozens-of-gop-delegates-launch-new-push-to-halt-donald-trump/2016/06/17/e8dcf74e-3491-11e6-8758-d58e76e11b12_story.html

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First, Unruh’s plan to unbind the delegates will need support from a majority of the convention’s rules committee, which is scheduled to meet July 14 and 15 — just a few days before the convention formally convenes. If the proposal passes the committee, it would need to be ratified by a majority of convention delegates the following week.
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Clinton short list leaks? on: June 17, 2016, 07:18:38 am
A producer from The Apprentice dishes on Trump behind the scenes of the show, putting Christie's position in the veepstakes in context:

link

Quote
“There was a fat contestant who was a buffoon and a f#$kup,” recalls the midlevel producer. “And he would f#$k up week after week, and the producers would figure that he’d screwed up so badly that Trump would have to fire him. But Trump kept deciding to fire someone else. The producers had to scramble because of course Trump can never be seen to make a bad call on the show, so we had to re-engineer the footage to make a different contestant look bad. Later, I heard a producer talk to him, and Trump said, ‘Everybody loves a fat guy. People will watch if you have a funny fat guy around. Trust me, it’s good for ratings.’ I look at Chris Christie now and I swear that’s what’s happening.”
106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: #NeverTrump GOP endorsements (Sasse,Whitman,Romney,Baker, Beck,Kristol,Ridge...) on: June 17, 2016, 05:59:57 am

Eh....sorry to be a stickler on this, but "I won't endorse anyone this year" doesn't quite qualify, IMHO.  I've added him to the list in the OP, but under the category of "staying out of it", along with Bush 41, Bush 43, and Snyder.  #NeverTrump means you're not going to vote for him, and Upton saying that he won't publicly endorse anyone doesn't really tell me how (or if) he's going to vote.


Upton didn't just say that he won't endorse. He had harsh words for Trump and his campaign. Maybe he didn't explicitly say that he won't vote for him but that's not the attitude of someone who despite his misgivings would still pull the lever out of party loyalty.

Well, OK, but I'm just going off of what they've publicly said.  I'm assuming that many of the Republicans who've actually endorsed him (maybe even Paul Ryan) aren't actually going to vote for him, since they think he's terrible.  But I have no way of knowing what they're going to do in the voting booth, so I just make the list based on public statements.
107  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: #NeverTrump GOP endorsements (Sasse,Whitman,Romney,Baker, Beck,Kristol,Ridge...) on: June 17, 2016, 05:04:58 am
Mark Kirk says he’ll write in David Petraeus.  He also goes farther than any of the other #NeverTrumpers in his criticism of Trump by calling him “racist”:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/mark-kirk-trump-racist-224427

Quote
“I do not support Hillary Clinton,” Kirk said in response, according to audio posted by BuzzFeed, “and I told the public that I did not support Donald Trump, either. I think he’s too bigoted and racist for the Land of Lincoln.”

Kirk will instead write in former CIA Director David Petraeus.

“I think if he announced, he would just light up the political spectrum,” Kirk said.

Some of the others, like Romney, have called Trump “offensive”, and accused him of “targeting groups of people” or other such phrases that imply bigotry.  But Kirk might be the first one to use the r-word.
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: #NeverTrump GOP endorsements (Sasse,Whitman,Romney,Baker, Beck,Kristol,Ridge...) on: June 17, 2016, 02:03:38 am
So I think the remaining 2016 Republican presidential candidates who haven’t endorsed Trump are Bush, Graham, Kasich, Pataki, Cruz, Fiorina, and Walker.  Bush and Graham have ruled it out, Kasich and Pataki say they won’t do it unless Trump changes, and Cruz and Fiorina pretty much won’t talk about it.  Walker had endorsed him, but has now pulled back the endorsement, and it isn’t clear under what conditions he’d give it back.

Fiorina’s been especially quiet about it, but there’s a new story in the Washington Examiner about how she’ll now be campaigning for Republicans in downballot races (starting with Rand Paul and Pat Toomey), but that she doesn’t plan on doing any stumping for Trump:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/fiorina-wont-lift-a-finger-to-help-trump/article/2593918

Quote
Sarah Isgur Flores, a Fiorina spokeswoman, indicated in a brief email exchange with the Washington Examiner that the former White House candidate's summer plans don't include stumping for Trump.
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Republican insiders familiar with Fiorina's thinking don't expect her to lift a finger to help Trump.

She has told associates that he "doesn't represent me or my values." At the same time, she doesn't want to appear as though she's trying to disrupt his nomination at the upcoming Cleveland convention.
109  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: #NeverTrump GOP endorsements (Sasse,Whitman,Romney,Baker, Beck,Kristol,Ridge...) on: June 17, 2016, 01:42:06 am
I'd like to hear from Mr. Morden too if today's interview of Kasich qualifies him as #NeverTrump.

What did he say that might qualify him as #NeverTrump?  It sounds like it's same as always from him: He won't support Trump unless he sees changes from Trump:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/john-kasich-joe-scarborough-i-m-not-interested-being-spoiler-n593486

Quote
Pressed with a retweet from Trump telling Kasich that he ought to "get on board" or leave the GOP, and the fact that he signed a pledge last summer to support the party's eventual nominee, Kasich said: "It's painful. It's painful. People even get divorces, you know? Sometimes things come about that, look, 'I'm sorry this has happened, but we'll see where it ends up.' I'm not making any final decision yet, but at this point I just can't do it."


Eh....sorry to be a stickler on this, but "I won't endorse anyone this year" doesn't quite qualify, IMHO.  I've added him to the list in the OP, but under the category of "staying out of it", along with Bush 41, Bush 43, and Snyder.  #NeverTrump means you're not going to vote for him, and Upton saying that he won't publicly endorse anyone doesn't really tell me how (or if) he's going to vote.
110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: PPP-2016: Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie is the matchup on: June 16, 2016, 11:37:00 pm
If she does run, I wonder if almost all the other Democratic contenders will bow out and wait for next time.  I'd guess she'd get at least one or two major challengers from the left though, a la Bill Bradley in 2000.

Hey, it turns out I was kind of smart back then.
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: PPP-National: Trump +2 on: June 16, 2016, 11:30:19 pm
Re: The discussion here about whether Kasich would qualify for the first debate: He was seen as being on the bubble at one point, wasn't he?

If Kasich hadn't made it into the first debate, would he have gotten trapped in a feedback loop of poor poll performance, where he never qualifies for the 1st tier debates, which probably means that he never gets a chance to break out in the New Hampshire polls, and ends up dropping out after New Hampshire, or at least some time before Super Tuesday?  How does the race unfold if Kasich drops out early, rather than hanging around forever?
112  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Clinton short list leaks? on: June 16, 2016, 10:24:14 pm
Garcetti says he hasn't been contacted by the Clinton campaign about vetting, and he gives the standard "I'm happy in my current job and not looking for a new one" non-denial when asked about his level of interest:

http://www.dailynews.com/government-and-politics/20160616/possible-vp-candidate-eric-garcetti-says-hes-not-looking-for-a-new-job
113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Clinton short list leaks? on: June 16, 2016, 08:23:28 pm
Ernst says she hasn’t been contacted by Team Trump about vetting, and that she doesn’t expect to be.  Also dodged the question of whether she’d take the job if offered:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2016/06/16/joni-ernst-donald-trump-must-have-his-eyes-set-somebody-else-for-vice-president/85987422/

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“Nobody has reached out to me, so I am doubtful of that,” Ernst said. “If that was being considered, somebody, I think, would have reached out to me. Nobody has reached out.”

When asked if she would accept an offer to join the Republican ticket, she deflected.

“I don’t think an offer is going to be forthcoming, so I really haven’t considered that option to be honest,” she said. “I think I just need to focus on Iowa.”

Meanwhile, Huckabee hasn’t gotten all that much veep buzz, but he has been one of the few Republicans who’s pretty consistently defended Trump for the past few months, so I don’t think he can be ruled out.  He’s now defending Trump’s Muslim ban as no big deal:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/huckabee-likens-trumps-muslim-ban-to-israels-immigration-policies-224458

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Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee showed support for Donald Trump’s proposed ban on Muslims, comparing it to Israel’s immigration policies.

“Right here in Israel, Muslims don’t just get to come into Israel without some clearance," Huckabee, who endorsed Trump for president, said in an interview with an Israeli radio station that aired Thursday. "In fact, I am not sure that they are allowed to immigrate here at all. So it’s not unusual — when everybody acts like ‘Oh what Trump has said is so amazing,’ it’s not that amazing in Israel. You don’t have open borders to Muslims here. "
114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Clinton short list leaks? on: June 16, 2016, 08:17:18 pm
Does anyone other than Christie even want to be Trump's running mate at this point?

Some do.  E.g., Jeff Sessions, Mary Fallin, Scott Brown.
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: With all due respect, the 2016 board is becoming an echo chamber on: June 16, 2016, 08:04:43 pm
This topic has been moved to Forum Community.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=239034.0
116  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: June 16, 2016, 09:23:56 am
I was wondering how many seasons were left, and decided to just look it up myself.  2 short seasons of 7 and 6 episodes.  So we only have 15 episodes left.  Just FYI for anybody that was wondering the same.

link

I don't think they've actually confirmed that Season 8 will be 6 episodes.  It's still kind of in rumor land.  I think they're just now finishing the writing of Season 7, so they probably want to leave themselves some wiggle room on the exact length of Season 8, for when they actually break those stories.
117  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: #NeverTrump GOP endorsements (Sasse,Whitman,Romney,Baker, Beck,Kristol,Ridge...) on: June 16, 2016, 08:35:15 am
A month and a half ago, Joe Scarborough was mocking #NeverTrump, saying it was just 12 people on Twitter, and that Republicans would come to realize that they had to choose between Clinton and Trump:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cW10wpyeMtw

Now he's urging Republican politicians to stand up to Trump, and draw lines in the sand like "I won't endorse you until you do X, Y, and Z":

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/joe-scarborough-gop-trump-224355
118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Vanity Fair: Trump is considering starting his own cable TV empire on: June 16, 2016, 08:23:52 am
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/06/donald-trump-tv-network

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Trump is indeed considering creating his own media business, built on the audience that has supported him thus far in his bid to become the next president of the United States. According to several people briefed on the discussions, the presumptive Republican nominee is examining the opportunity presented by the “audience” currently supporting him. He has also discussed the possibility of launching a “mini-media conglomerate” outside of his existing TV-production business, Trump Productions LLC. He has, according to one of these people, enlisted the consultation of his daughter Ivanka Trump and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who owns the The New York Observer. Trump’s rationale, according to this person, is that, “win or lose, we are onto something here. We’ve triggered a base of the population that hasn’t had a voice in a long time.” For his part, Kushner was heard at a New York dinner party saying that “the people here don’t understand what I’m seeing. You go to these arenas and people go crazy for him.” (Both Kushner and Ivanka Trump did not respond to a request for comment.)

Trump, this person close to the matter suggests, has become irked by his ability to create revenue for other media organizations without being able to take a cut himself. Such a situation “brings him to the conclusion that he has the business acumen and the ratings for his own network.” Trump has “gotten the bug,” according to this person. “So now he wants to figure out if he can monetize it.
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: June 16, 2016, 08:12:52 am
Wikipedia now mentions a LOT more people: Kaine, Cuomo, Patrick, and Warren for Democrats, and Christie, Cotton, Cruz, Haley, Kasich, Paul, Pence, Rauner, Rubio, Sasse, and Walker for the Republicans (plus both potential incumbent Presidents).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2020

Yeah, but as I said earlier in the thread, Wikipedia mixes together people who've made solid hints that they're interested in running and people who haven't done anything to indicate an interest in running, yet are being speculated about on blogs.  For example, they list Kaine, but it's based on nothing.  They link to a National Review story that talks about how Kaine wants to be Clinton's running mate, which then speculates that if Clinton loses the general election, her running mate would be in a good position for 2020.

The purpose of this thread is more to talk about actual hints from the candidates themselves (and those around them) that they're interested in running.  So far, we have real hints of interest from folks like Cruz, Rubio, Walker, Cotton, Sasse, etc.  On the Democratic side, it's pretty quiet.  I guess at this point, none of the Dems are ready to even contemplate the possibility that Clinton might lose.  (Or they are contemplating it, but don't want to be caught talking about it.)
120  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: latest Betfair odds on: June 16, 2016, 08:00:26 am
What about Stein & Johnson?

Gary Johnson to win the presidency is at 0.4.  Stein....they don't have a market for her.  Some of the other betting sites do, and they tend to have her in a similar range to Johnson.  A couple of tenths of a percent.
121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: latest Betfair odds on: June 16, 2016, 07:55:20 am
Biden ahead of Sanders for the Democratic nomination.  Trump below 95 to win the GOP nomination for the first time since the Indiana primary.

Winning Individual
Clinton 74.6
Trump 22.3

Democratic presidential nominee
Clinton 96.2
Biden 3.1
Sanders 1.8

Republican presidential nominee
Trump 93.5
Bush 2.5
Cruz 2.4
Ryan 1.5

Democratic VP nominee
Warren 27.3
Kaine 26.0
Castro 21.2
Perez 11.9
Brown 11.1

Republican VP nominee
Sessions 26.0
Gingrich 24.2
Kasich 12.2
Ernst 7.2
Christie 7.0
122  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: June 16, 2016, 05:08:17 am
Isn't indications that next episode will be all about #bastardbowl, similar to how the Wall battle against the Wildlings was an entire episode in itself?

I'm not sure.  I thought I read somewhere that one of the behind the scenes videos indicated that we'd also be getting at least a little of Meereen in Episode 9, but my memory might be playing tricks on me.
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How does Johnson gain more than 20% of the vote in November? on: June 16, 2016, 03:46:57 am
Libertarianism is just not a popular ideology, it's the ideology of the 1% and that's how much it can expect to get in any given election.

In most years, yes.  This year....the major party candidates are so unpopular (especially Trump, at least right now) that I could see him getting a few % if he gets sufficient media attention to make the voters aware of his existence.  He managed to get 1% in 2012, even when the vast majority of voters had never heard of him, nor were aware he was running.  If his current level of media coverage sustains or grows until November, then I see no reason why he couldn't match Nader's #s from 2000.  But 20%?  That's a pipe dream.
124  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Clinton short list leaks? on: June 16, 2016, 03:30:47 am
Is that a guy though?

Oh...maybe not.
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump would host Kim Jong Un in US on: June 16, 2016, 03:23:04 am
Welcoming and hosting dictators in the US, and bringing them into the White House is... problematic.

Um...has there been a president since before FDR who didn't host a dictator at the White House?

Also, having a hostile foreign leader tour the country can be a massive PR coup, whether it was Khrushchev in the 50s or Ahmadinejad in the 00s. It gives the US a chance to show off to a foreign leader's face.

But not all dictators are the same.  The North Korean regime experiences a rare level of international isolation, to the point where getting a face to face meeting with any Western leader (let alone the president of the United States) is something of a PR coup for them.  That’s why they were willing to trade prisoners for a visit from former Pres. Bill Clinton in the past.

So regardless of what Obama said during the 2008 campaign, I don’t actually see him being willing to personally meet with Kim Jong Un without some kind of concession from the North Koreans.  That’s not to say that he wouldn’t be allowed into the country.  Since the UN is in New York, I guess they kind of have to let any foreign head of government in.  But would Obama meet with him while he was there?  I don’t think so.  Nor do I think Hillary Clinton would do it.  Trump…who knows.  He says he would, but I have no idea.

Same goes for Bashar Assad, for that matter.  Setting aside the fact that Assad may not want to visit a Western country for fear of prosecution for war crimes, I don’t see either Obama or Clinton agreeing to meet with him face to face.
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