Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 20, 2014, 06:27:04 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 ... 755
101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: October 11, 2014, 09:55:04 pm
More Pence:

http://www.jconline.com/story/opinion/2014/10/02/brian-howey-pence-question/16595931/

Quote
But the fact is, Pence is keeping his options open when it comes to 2016. Senior aides laid out a four-point scenario. Pence and his political team will take all of the necessary steps for a 2016 re-election bid. The governor will campaign for Republican statewide and legislative candidates this fall, with an emphasis on preserving the House and Senate supermajorities. The Pence administration is “all hands on deck” in the development of the 2015 biennial budget, the governor’s intentions on reforming and simplifying the tax code.

Pence told me on Wednesday, “For me, job one is my job, which includes day-to-day operations, putting the policies we have in place, and continuing policy development for the upcoming session.”

And then the key point: Following the expected April 30 end of the General Assembly, Pence will take a look at the 2016 presidential race. This includes first lady Karen Pence, his three college age kids and a tight inner circle that includes his brother Greg, long-time chief of staff Bill Smith, long-time political patron Van Smith, and Republican wise men such as Fred Klipsch and Jim Morris.

So, sounds like if he does run, he wouldn't enter the race until May at the earliest.
102  Forum Community / Forum Community / Who has created the second most polls on the Atlas forum? on: October 11, 2014, 08:46:58 pm
Tender Branson has created the most threads, narrowly ahead of BRTD.  But far more of BRTD's threads have been polls.  (4815 polls by BRTD, compared to only 470 polls by Tender.)

But who is second in number of polls created, after BRTD?  I think I know the answer, but please try to guess without looking.
103  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: South Park vs. The Cleveland Show on: October 11, 2014, 08:38:10 pm
In what fraction of polls created by BRTD has BRTD voted with the majority?
104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA-Selzer: Hillary leads all Pubs on: October 11, 2014, 07:32:06 pm
favorable / unfavorable %

Paul 39/33% for +6%
Romney 48/45% for +3%
Clinton 47/49% for -2%
Bush 32/38% for -6%
Biden 43/51% for -8%
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA-Selzer: Hillary leads all Pubs on: October 11, 2014, 07:26:01 pm

106  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How many of your grandparents were alive when you were born? on: October 11, 2014, 07:25:28 pm
Just two.  Both of my grandmothers died before I was born.
107  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Have you ever been outside your home country? on: October 11, 2014, 07:14:00 pm
Well, I live outside my home country, so yes.  Just in the last three years, I've been to the US, Australia, Israel, France, China, and Indonesia.
108  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you read Cracked.com? on: October 11, 2014, 07:10:06 pm
I don't read that many of their articles, but do watch some of their videos.  I particularly like After Hours and Marvels of the Science:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5wGgVWvluk&list=PL_saLI-LH-VoCBccTkGUojCNIcGAH2Wu5&index=6
109  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: The forum needs another admin on: October 11, 2014, 06:51:24 pm
Thanks guys, but I definitely do *not* want to do it.

Also, to clarify any misconceptions, Nym's super powers allow him to ban posters, ban IPs, and modify or delete posts on any board on the forum.  That's it.  He *cannot* add or subtract mods on his own, add new avatars, or change the profanity filter.  Dave has never shown any interest in sharing powers like that, and I wouldn't hold my breath on getting him to start.
110  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: I maybe be leaving the forum. on: October 11, 2014, 05:07:34 pm
How does no one bother to look at the date of the OP?

I did look at the date of the OP, and gave the poster my 2006 perspective on his concerns.
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: latest Betfair odds on: October 11, 2014, 08:15:37 am
Note that in both 2006 and 2010, only 4-5 of the people in the top 10 of the betting markets actually ended up running in the end.  So we should have some humility about declaring this or that candidate a sure thing to run.  There'll surely be a good deal of weeding out of candidates just in the next six months.

112  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: latest Betfair odds on: October 11, 2014, 08:08:59 am
Bush regains the lead.  Romney back up to fifth place as Perry falls back down to Earth.  Ryan's at what I think for him is an all time low:

GOP

Bush 17.4
Rubio 16.3
Paul 11.6
Christie 11.1
Romney 9.1
Cruz 6.5
Perry 6.4
Jindal 3.8
Walker 3.8
Huckabee 3.4
Ryan 3.4

Dems

Clinton 68.5
Warren 9.1
Biden 6.5
Cuomo 2.9
O'Malley 2.4

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 29.6
Thune 19.0
Palin 18.8
Pawlenty 13.5
Gingrich 9.0
Huckabee 7.9
Barbour 7.0
Daniels 7.0
Paul 6.2
J. Bush 6.0
Pence 5.0

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Democratic:

Clinton 48.1
Gore 17.0
Edwards 13.9
Obama 5.0
Kerry 3.3
Bayh 3.1
Feingold 2.5
Richardson 2.4
Biden 1.7
Vilsack 1.2
Clark 1.0

Republicans:

McCain 38.4
Giulani 18.6
Romney 15.0
Allen 6.6
Huckabee 6.3
Rice 4.0
Gingrich 3.0
Frist 1.7
Brownback 1.2
113  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Easiest pathway for Democrats to hold the Senate? on: October 11, 2014, 03:51:18 am
Wait, haven't you miscounted here, or is it me?  Don't the Dems only need to win two of the above?

If KS goes Dem. and no other GOP seats do, then the GOP needs to flip seven Democratic seats their way to get a majority.  So MT/WV/SD/AR.  GA and KY are already GOP, so the GOP needs three of AK/CO/IA/LA.  So if the Dems win just two of those, then the Senate is 50/50 and Biden breaks the tie, to give them control.
114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: October 11, 2014, 02:49:04 am
Christie was in New Hampshire today, and will be in Iowa again later this month.  Pence will also be in NH later this month, and Perry was scheduled to make the trip there earlier this week, but cancelled in order to deal with the Ebola issue in Texas:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-this-man-is-2016-republicans-favorite-underdog/
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: McClatchy-Marist national poll: Clinton leads Bush, Christie, & Paul by 9-11pts. on: October 11, 2014, 02:18:14 am
I think most polls put Christie's name recognition in the 70s.  Rubio's is a bit lower.  Walker's is pretty low.  So there are plenty of potential GOP nominees with lower name recognition than Clinton has (she's well over 90%).

It's a lot more meaningful when you're testing two people with high name recognition (ex: Clinton vs. Romney) as opposed to say, a McCain vs. Obama poll in 2006.

Mondale was well known as the former vice president, but he started out at the beginning of 1984 roughly tied with Reagan.  Reagan won by 18 points:



And Dole was well known in 1995 (being Senate Majority Leader, former presidential candidate, and former VP candidate).  He actually led Bill Clinton in the polls in early 1995, despite eventually losing by ~8 points:

http://www.mail-archive.com/pen-l@galaxy.csuchico.edu/msg04399.html

Quote
Increased polarization has also probably made early polls more indicative than they have been in the past.

What is your evidence for this?  I don't see how this hypothesis even makes sense.  You could say that polarization will prevent a blowout from occurring, but why would it mean that the candidate who's leading polls right now would be more likely to win?  And even if you can spin a scenario as to why, what is the evidence that this supposed phenomenon is real?

You need a baseline of presidential elections in which the early polls were predictive of the final result in order to prove such an assertion, but if you're saying that this only applies to very recent presidential elections in which both candidates were well known two years beforehand, then you have too few elections to work with in order for things to be statistically meaningful.
116  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: McClatchy-Marist national poll: Clinton leads Bush, Christie, & Paul by 9-11pts. on: October 10, 2014, 11:36:26 pm
I'm largely with Branden on this.  I do think the Dems are slight favorites to win in '16, but that's not because of these polls.  Polls taken 2+ years before the election are pretty terrible predictors of US presidential elections.  I'm more interested in looking at them with regard to the demographic crosstabs, and the variations in regional appeal of different candidates.  But in terms of predicting the nationwide winner, or margin of victory, I think they're pretty useless.

117  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: I maybe be leaving the forum. on: October 10, 2014, 09:53:28 am
I maybe be leaving the forum because I feel the partisan left wingers on this forum have taken it over and they trash just about every Republican politcan even the ones who don't deserve it and without reason. Also as a Repubican I feel unwelcomed here.

I would give it a little time.  Since Hillary Clinton is leading the polls now, and will probably be our next president (perhaps defeating Mitt Romney in the general election, since his $ could buy him the nomination), maybe the forum Democrats will mellow a little when one of their own occupies the White House.  At the moment, they're just really ticked off about the war in Iraq, but that'll pass if the current strategy works out.

In the meantime, I do think the moderation on the forum could use some improvement.  I was thinking of making some suggestions to Dave on how the forum could be improved.  I'm going to ask about whether he might entertain the option of making Bushie and Inks moderators, and whether he might consider a new system for tallying the "infractions" against each poster.  We could call them "infraction points".
118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH (UNH): New Hampshire is #ready4dynasties on: October 09, 2014, 09:24:09 pm
favorable / unfavorable among their own party....

Dems

Clinton 84/10% for +74%
Warren 65/7% for +58%
Biden 59/27% for +32%
Sanders 39/9% for +30%
Cuomo 28/23% for +5%
O'Malley 8/4% for +4%
Warner 11/10% for +1%

GOP

Ryan 51/12% for +39%
Rubio 43/14% for +29%
Perry 49/21% for +28%
Paul 50/23% for +27%
Walker 33/6% for +27%
Bush 49/28% for +21%
Huckabee 48/28% for +20%
Jindal 31/14% for +17%
Cruz 33/22% for +11%
Christie 44/35% for +9%
Portman 14/8% for +6%
Kasich 17/12% for +5%
Santorum 31/31% for +/-0

There's also the question...

Which of the candidates would you not vote for under any circumstances?

Dems

Biden 13%
Cuomo 7%
Sanders 4%
Clinton 3%
Warner 3%
Warren 2%
O'Malley 2%

GOP

Christie 12%
Bush 10%
Huckabee 6%
Paul 5%
Santorum 4%
Perry 4%
Cruz 4%
Jindal 1%
Portman 1%
everyone else 0%
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul on drugs.....and gay marriage on: October 09, 2014, 07:54:39 pm
In related news, Walker has "given up" on gay marriage:

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/run-2016/2014/10/07/scott-walker-vs-ted-cruz-on-gay-marriage

Quote
“For us, it’s over in Wisconsin,” Walker acknowledged, citing the high court move that means a lower court decision to accept gay marriage in his state is the final word on the subject.

And Walker, who faces re-election in four weeks, seems content with the finality on the topic.

“I’d rather be talking in the future now more about our jobs plan and our plan for the future of the state. I think that’s what matters to the kids. It’s not this issue,” he says.

This is welcome news for someone who was actually refusing to state his position on the issue.
120  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Post 16000 on: October 09, 2014, 06:49:52 am
Wow.  We've both been here a long time.  To which I can only say….

"Once you've been through something like that with a person, you never want to see that person again."


121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: October 08, 2014, 08:35:21 pm
Huntsman again says that he's not running:

http://washingtonexaminer.com/huntsman-no-2016-presidential-run/article/2554528

Quote
The former Utah governor, who ran in 2012, said he would not run for governor again nor would he run for president in 2016.

“I can’t describe a pathway through the early primary states up to Super Tuesday, and if you can’t find that pathway or describe what that pathway is, then you had [better] not be in the race,” Huntsman told Politico.

He also said he would not run of state office again, describing the eventual letdown after being elected twice with 80 percent of the vote as a "fool-hearted" effort: “If you try to do that over again, you’re never going to be as good the first time around,” Huntsman explained.
122  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVII: I Ate The Strawberry (The REAL, AUTHENTIC Update) on: October 08, 2014, 06:08:00 pm
Here is what I just shared with J-Mann about why I keep going back to customer service.  Any friendly advice would be helpful.

I have had a little success in the call centers, especially technical support call centers.  I was at Dell for an entire year with no problem and was only let go because I couldn't pass the Security+ Certification.  I was also at ONG for 2 years with no problem and that was customer service all the way, though not all call center.  I don't really want call centers, and I want CAD jobs, but those are hard to come by and I need a job.  So, I feel I have to open myself up to jobs that are less than pleasant.  I don't want to stay on my parent's financial ledger, and a lot of times I choose desperation over preferred.  I know there are other jobs out there, but I don't know what to look for.


Wait, wait wait.. lets pump the breaks here real quick. In past seasons, you told us they were getting ready to let you go at ONG. So how does that translate to being there with "no problems"?

Bushie likes to change the narrative to whatever is going to work best/sound nicest for the situation. 

Are we lambasting him for throwing away a steady job to chase a scam?  It's okay, guys.  I was on my last legs at ONG, anyway, and Dad said yadda yadda yadda

Now we are confronting him about looking into customer service AGAIN after he swore it off not one week ago?  It's okay, guys.  I was a model customer service representative at ONG for TWO years, and all I have to do is believe in yadda yadda God blah blah Dad. 

It's classic Update material. 

(I'm sorry for being more caustic than normal with you, Jeff, but you really need a reality check right no
w.  Take a spa day and have some herbal tea and reflect.  I'm serious.)

There's also the fact he was only at Dell for 2 months

I was at Dell an entire year (June 2011-May 2012).
Can somebody bust out the Update archives and fact check this. I'm on my phone and it's not working right. Otherwise I would. I can't recall Bushie ever having a job for a whole year since ONG. I could be wrong but I think I'd remember something like that.

I'm pretty sure Bushie is right.  2011 was the most boring year of Update.  This was post-2010 drama, but pre-Kenya and pre-Utah.  Update even disappeared from Atlas for nearly six months as Bushie relocated it to a blog, but there wasn't much interest.  Then in early 2012, we had the trip to Kenya, and that was the main focus for a while, and people weren't really focused on his job situation, which in any case seemed OK then.  Then he was fired from Dell, before finding the job at Xerox.
123  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is Bushie a "pretty smart cookie"? on: October 08, 2014, 07:17:56 am
Ummm... he's clearly has something that begins with 'a' and ends with 'm'.

Autodidactism?  That would explain how he became an expert on the use of his CADD software without the formal instruction.
124  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVII: I Ate The Strawberry (The REAL, AUTHENTIC Update) on: October 08, 2014, 04:02:13 am
I wonder why he wasn't invited to the family vacation?

I thought it was because he was sick, and the family didn't want to bring him along to infect the plains.
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA: PPP: Hillary ties Bush, leads others on: October 08, 2014, 01:16:33 am
Yeah, since they haven't released the caucus poll numbers by now, I assume they're not going to.  What's the point of doing such a poll and not releasing the numbers?  This isn't the first time they've done this.
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 ... 755


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines