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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: FOX: Bush ahead national on: June 24, 2015, 08:21:38 pm
On the Democratic side, breakdown by race:

whites:
Clinton 56%
Sanders 22%
Biden 8%

blacks:
Clinton 68%
Biden 15%
Sanders 5%

On the GOP side, who leads among...?

men: Bush
women: Bush
college degree: Bush
no college degree: Bush/Trump tie
under age 45: Bush/Paul tie
over age 45: Bush
under $50k income: Bush/Trump tie
over $50k income: Bush
white Evangelicals: Carson
Tea Party: Walker
conservatives: Bush/Carson tie

Trump support is very much "beer track" rather than "wine track".  He's at 14% among those without a college degree, and only at 4% among those with a degree.  And he's at 14% among those with under $50k income, but only 9% among those with over $50k income.  He's the candidate of low information voters.
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary under water in MN on: June 24, 2015, 05:49:35 pm
The author of that article seems to be kind of clueless about polling.  Clinton doesn't have an "approval rating", because she doesn't have a job.  She has a favorability rating instead.
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jindal announces presidential candidacy on: June 24, 2015, 05:46:50 pm
Website:

http://www.bobbyjindal.com


104  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Let's talk about Deus Naturae on: June 24, 2015, 09:23:32 am
The subject poster needs to have a course correction. That is all.

PM therapy works, or so I hear.

Indeed:

I am working privately with Barfbag, and when we are done, I am quite confident he will be back with us - hopefully by early next week. Thanks.
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can a establish-moderate Pub coalition get Kasich nominated? on: June 24, 2015, 08:59:46 am
I sort of think the whole thing is by design. The Pub establishment is well aware that perhaps a majority of their primary voters want candidates that tend to be politically toxic in general elections. So the dice are loaded.  

As Cohn notes, it's not just that the dice are loaded towards the more moderate candidates in the presidential primaries, but that things are skewed the opposite way, towards more conservative candidates, when it comes to GOP Congressional representation.  (As he points out, 40% of all GOP primary voters live in the 18 most solidly Democratic states.  Yet those same states include just 7% of all Republican US Senators.)  This skews people's perceptions of what the median GOP primary voter looks like.
106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jindal to make 2016 announcement in New Orleans on Wednesday @4pm Central on: June 24, 2015, 08:31:48 am
*bump*

Don't forget to watch this important event.
107  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: FCC approves more robo-call restrictions on: June 24, 2015, 06:58:00 am
RIP PPP.
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / What's the probability that the GOP pres. nominee is not Bush, Rubio, or Walker? on: June 24, 2015, 03:56:28 am
?
109  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: latest Betfair odds on: June 24, 2015, 03:43:34 am
Trump up to 5th place.  Jindal at 3.1 on the eve of his announcement.

Democrats
Clinton 84.0
Sanders 10.0
Biden 5.7
O'Malley 5.0

Republicans
Bush 34.7
Rubio 25.4
Walker 17.7
Paul 8.4
Trump 4.2
Huckabee 3.8
Carson 3.4
Jindal 3.1
Perry 3.1
Cruz 2.9

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

GOP nominee

Romney 36.1
Perry 17.0
Huntsman 9.4
Bachmann 9.1
Pawlenty 8.5
Palin 5.3
Paul 2.4
Christie 2.0
Gingrich 2.0
Cain 1.9
Giuliani 1.8
Ryan 1.2
Santorum 0.6
Johnson 0.4

Dem. nominee

Obama 93.9
Clinton 3.0
Biden 1.6

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 49.5
Obama 30.6
Gore 9.3
Edwards 5.3
Richardson 2.6
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 32.5
Thompson 30.4
Romney 23.2
McCain 8.9
Paul 2.6
Gingrich 2.0
Huckabee 0.8
Rice 0.8
Bloomberg 0.5
Brownback 0.5
J. Bush 0.4
Hagel 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Powell 0.1
110  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Recent bans on: June 24, 2015, 01:12:30 am
Nym swings the Banhammer of Justice once again:

ilovebunnies: banned for being a jamespol sock
rdrakes42: banned for being a Giovanni sock
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Carson's mad fellow Republicans won't acknowledge racism in Charleston shooting on: June 24, 2015, 12:24:47 am
From an op/ed Carson wrote on Monday:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2015/06/22/ben-carson-south-carolina-shooting-column/29074387/

Quote
Not everything is about race in this country. But when it is about race, then it just is. So when a guy who has been depicted wearing a jacket featuring an apartheid-era Rhodesian flag allegedly walks into a historic black church and guns down nine African-American worshipers at a Bible study meeting, common sense leads one to believe his motivations are based in racism. When a survivor of the ordeal reports that the killer shouted before opening fire, "You rape our women and you're taking over our country. And you have to go" — well, that sounds to me a lot like racial hatred.

Let's call this sickness what it is, so we can get on with the healing. If this were a medical disease, and all the doctors recognized the symptoms but refused to make the diagnosis for fear of offending the patient, we could call it madness. But there are people who are claiming that they can lead this country who dare not call this tragedy an act of racism, a hate crime, for fear of offending a particular segment of the electorate.
112  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can a establish-moderate Pub coalition get Kasich nominated? on: June 23, 2015, 10:56:32 pm
I don't agree with the thesis from the OP exactly, but Torie, what are your thoughts on this Nate Cohn column from January?:

"The Surprising Power of Blue State Republicans"

I don't think he even mentions one advantage that more moderate GOP voters have in presidential primaries, that I've talked about here in the past: Their power is amplified by the fact that most states use some kind of WTA by congressional district delegate allocation, in which every CD gets the same number of delegates.  So the Republican primary voters in Nancy Pelosi's district (who are very few in number) collectively have as much clout as the Republican primary voters in a solidly Republican district elsewhere in California.  As seen in both 2008 and 2012, those urban Republicans are more likely to vote for the "moderate establishment" candidate than the more conservative insurgent.
113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: June 23, 2015, 09:19:22 pm
Peter King update....but he pretty much just repeats what he's already said:

https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2015/06/23/congressman-says-hell-run-president-can-secure-big-money-supporters/

Quote
In an unusually candid comment about what it takes to run for the White House, Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y., told a talk radio program on Monday that he will join the 2016 race — but only if he can find “big money” donors for his candidacy.

King said he that has already traveled to New Hampshire, received popular support from audiences there and thinks this election cycle is shaping up to be very favorable to the Republican Party.

Appearing on Boston Herald radio, King was asked if there was “anything that could sway” his decision.

“It would have to be more of an indication that some of the big money supporters will be there,” King replied. “I still think some of that’s possible and that’s what I’m checking out right now.”
114  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas forum leaderboard: Tender creeping………….up on the top 10 on: June 23, 2015, 08:31:40 pm
Next milestone is Eraserhead reaching the 40,000 post mark.  Which could happen any day now.
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Webb defends Confederate flag *UPDATE* on: June 23, 2015, 06:24:11 pm
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/06/jim-webb-confederate-flag-south-carolina

Quote
By now, every 2016 presidential contender from both parties—those announced, those undeclared—has weighed in on the Confederate flag controversy that erupted after last week's mass shooting at the Emanuel AME Church in Charleston, South Carolina, except for one: Democrat Jim Webb.

A former senator from Virginia, Webb has defended the Confederate Army and the rebel flag in the past. But on Monday, when contacted by the Washington Times, he declined to comment on the ongoing controversy over whether the Confederate banner should continue to fly on the grounds of the state Capitol in South Carolina. On Tuesday, Webb's spokesman, Craig Crawford, told Mother Jones in an email that Webb "just has not been on the habit of commenting on news of the day. He's not an official candidate." Webb has previously said he plans to make an official announcement on running for president by the end of June.

Update: Webb speaks: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=214898.msg4641465#msg4641465
116  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH-Suffolk: Trump in second on: June 23, 2015, 05:58:38 pm
Full results:

Bush 14%
Trump 11%
Walker 8%
Rubio 7%
Carson 6%
Christie 5%
Paul 4%
Cruz 4%
Fiorina 4%
Huckabee 2%
Kasich 2%
Pataki 1%
Perry 1%
Santorum 1%
Graham, Jindal, Ehrlich, Everson, Gilmore 0% each
117  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Petition to unban JoMCaR on: June 23, 2015, 05:05:47 am
     Mods really jumped the gun here.

Hey, I was sleeping.  Thread regarding suspicion of Jomcar socking was posted at ~2:30am in my time zone, and less than 90 minutes later he was banned.  Clearly I need to make a motion for there not to be any committee meetings held during the middle of the night in Australia.  Tongue
118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who would be weakest against Clinton? on: June 23, 2015, 02:52:45 am
There is always the "Nixon to China" effect with these things.  Walker has built up more goodwill with the GOP base, therefore he can more easily afford to move more to center in the general election without constantly worrying about his right flank.

Not sure he's politically skilled enough to pull that off though.
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nikki Haley for President? on: June 23, 2015, 02:43:22 am
South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is somewhat of a folk hero.

I can vouch for this.  In my social circle, we regularly sing songs, or write poetry, about the fabled exploits of Gov. Haley.
120  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Has anyone made a map... on: June 23, 2015, 01:25:00 am
This topic has been moved to U.S. Presidential Election Results.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=214870.0
121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton opens up 60 point lead on: June 22, 2015, 10:05:30 pm
Not sure what they did in 2007 but there must have been some threshold then to keep out the kooks, or perhaps it was arbitrary.

I'm pretty sure it was completely arbitrary.  Mike Gravel wasn't even being included in the polls (and in the few where he was, he was at 0%, or something like that).  No one besides political geeks had any clue who he was, and he had no money or presence in the early states.  But they invited him to the debates because he was a former US Senator.
122  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Favorite TV Shows on: June 22, 2015, 10:01:27 pm
SNL (1975-first half of 1995 specifically. Even have the dreaded 80-81 season on DVD.)

1995 is a weird cutoff, since the 1994-1995 season was the worst of the Lorne Michaels-produced seasons (OK, worst of the ones I've seen).
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton opens up 60 point lead on: June 22, 2015, 09:55:43 pm
Is there a percentage cut off for the Dem debates? If so, Chafee would probably get excluded. Pretty much everyone puts him at 0 or 1. Great news!

If I had to guess, would bet that CNN would get the first debate. And I suspect they would use the same rules for Dems as they have for GOPers (although the cutoff for the top 10 wont be an issue).

Their minimum criteria is an average of 1% in 3 recognized national polls in the two months (or so) prior to the debate. As of now Chafee has 3 polls with 1% since  (Quinni, ABC and FOX), so if the rules are the same he would (barely) qualify.

It's not clear to me that they'll bother with a polling threshold, since the Democratic race will only have 4 or 5 participants.  They can easily just let everyone in to the debate, if they want to.  Chafee seems to be the only candidate attacking Clinton directly on a regular basis, so they might want him in there to create more drama.

However, the "they" in the preceding paragraph is the network.  It's possible that the DNC tries to come up with some additional criteria that they try to force on the network, if they're looking to protect Clinton from the wrath of the Chafe.
124  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6) on: June 22, 2015, 09:50:37 pm
I forget, have they said what the cutoff date is for these polls?  Presumably they're not going to wait until the day before the debate to announce who's being invited.  Maybe they'll only include polls released by July 31st, or something like that.  I expect a flurry of polling in late July because of this.
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6) on: June 22, 2015, 09:36:09 pm
Since Santorum, Fiorina, Graham, and Pataki have already announced, they can't really count on using an announcement bounce to save them.

Kasich, on the other hand, still has a shot at getting an announcement bounce that puts him in the top 10.  All he has to do is double his support.  Tongue
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