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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / What should these folks do in 2018 if they want to run for prez in 2020? on: November 26, 2016, 12:29:05 pm
Sherrod Brown: Up for reelection in 2018
Andrew Cuomo: Up for reelection in 2018
Kirsten Gillibrand: Up for reelection in 2018
Amy Klobuchar: Up for reelection in 2018
Elizabeth Warren: Up for reelection in 2018

Cuomo faces reelection for governor while Brown, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, and Warren are all up in the Senate.  Klobuchar’s also rumored to be considering a run for governor, which would most likely mean no presidential run.  Are any of them better off “retiring” in 2018, so they can run for president full time, or are they better off staying in their current jobs?

One consideration: If the GOP retains the Senate in 2018, are they going to bring up a bunch of controversial measures for a vote in the Senate designed to divide or embarrass the Dem. presidential candidates?
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: changes in party support for selected crosstabs according to the exit polls on: November 26, 2016, 11:37:55 am
I assume none of this data reflects changes in turnout. At least in some places (e.g. Detroit), the black turnout at least was indeed down.

It's just the % change in the fraction of that demo that did indeed vote.  So no, it doesn't deal with the fact that some demos make up a different %age of the electorate than 4 years ago.  In the case of blacks, they were 13% of the electorate 4 years ago, and 12% of the electorate this year.
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Describe a McCain '08 - Romney '12 - Clinton '16 voter on: November 26, 2016, 10:40:12 am
voters making over $100,000 in the 2012 exit poll:
Romney 54%
Obama 44%
3rd party 2%

voters making over $100,000 in the 2016 exit poll:
Clinton 47%
Trump 47%
3rd party 6%

So plenty of rich switched from Romney to either Clinton or Johnson this time around.  Though Obama and McCain were also tied among those over $100,000 in 2008, so I guess some of those folks went Obama-Romney-Clinton.

Anyway, voters making over $100,000 swung Dem. more than any other demographic this time, so that would be the demo to look at for this question.

Other demographic variables that swung Democratic this time: over 65, Republican, and Jewish.  So rich, old Republican Jews were presumably the most likely to vote Clinton after having voted Romney last time.
104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: changes in party support for selected crosstabs according to the exit polls on: November 26, 2016, 10:23:57 am
these are the adjusted results? because some of those numbers are hella suspicious

Yes.  Though it was the adjusted numbers a few days after the election, when there were some votes still being counted.  I've now updated the OP with the latest #s.
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: 2032 presidential candidates on: November 25, 2016, 03:01:52 pm
This topic has been moved to Presidential Election Trends.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=253392.0
106  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Transition Team/Cabinet Thread on: November 25, 2016, 02:26:58 pm
Terry Branstad in the mix for ambassador to China:

http://www.kcrg.com/content/news/Gov-Branstad-not-ruling-out-role-in-Trump-administration-402172376.html
107  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Transition Team/Cabinet Thread on: November 25, 2016, 01:36:14 pm
https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/802174348756979712?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

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On Monday Trump will meet with Sheriff David Clarke, OK AG Scott Pruitt, Rep. Lou Barletta and others per @seanspicer
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: November 25, 2016, 01:29:59 pm
Some guy tweets “Can’t wait for your presidential run in 2020” to Booker, and his response tweet doesn’t deny it.  Tongue

https://twitter.com/CoryBooker/status/801991881722855424

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@CoryBooker just watched your documentary on Netflix. Awesome! Can't wait for your presidential run in 2020!

Booker’s response:

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So grateful you watched Street Fight on Netflix about my first run for major office. @marshallcurry did a great job with it. All the best.

Btw, since there’s been talk of both Cory Booker 2020 and (apparently) Tim Scott 2020 recently, might as well note that Booker and Scott both visited Israel back in August:

http://njjewishnews.com/article/32023/booker-finds-common-ground-in-israel#.WDiBiaIrK1s

In recent election cycles, Israel has become a perennial foreign stop for US presidential candidates.


109  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Transition Team/Cabinet Thread on: November 25, 2016, 01:15:24 pm
Christie in contention for Energy and Homeland Security:

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/11/breaking_christie_in_strong_contention_for_both_se.html

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Gov. Chris Christie is still being considered for multiple posts in President-elect Donald Trump's cabinet, three people familiar with the selection process said Wednesday.

One of the sources told NJ Advance Media that the New Jersey governor is in strong contention to become the nation's secretary of energy or secretary of homeland security.

"The one person who really values what Chris has done, and how loyal he's been, is Donald Trump," the person close to the Trump transition said.
110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Trump wins, which candidates will honor their pledge to endorse the nominee? on: November 25, 2016, 11:45:48 am

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Rubio: Yes, but will avoid actively campaigning for him.
Carson: Yes, and will actively support him.
Kasich: No. Will endorse no one and make sanctimonious speeches about the decline of American civility.
Fiorina: Yes, but who cares?
Huckabee: Yes, and will actively support him.
Walker: Yes, but will avoid actively supporting him.
Jindal: yes, but will avoid actively supporting him.
Perry: Yes, but will avoid actively supporting him.
Santorum: Yes, but will avoid actively supporting him.
Graham: No, and will make sanctimonious speeches about civility and not murdering the families of terror suspects.
Pataki: Yes, but who would notice if he campaigned or not?
Gilmore: Yes, but wouldn't leave his Twitter cave.

Bingo

Pataki never endorsed him in the general election.  At one point he said that he wouldn't support Trump unless he reversed himself on immigration, and later called on Trump to drop out of the race so that a better Republican candidate could take over as the nominee.  I don't know that he ever said who he did vote for though.

In any case, complete list of Trump's rivals for the nomination who never endorsed him or in any way indicated that they were going to vote for him in the general election:

Bush
Graham
Kasich
Pataki

The rest of them all gave at least nominal "I support the nominee" type statements.
111  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Transition Team/Cabinet Thread on: November 25, 2016, 09:31:28 am
The NYT dives into the behind the scenes of the “Giuliani or Romney?” question for Secretary of State:

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/11/24/us/politics/donald-trump-mitt-romney-rudy-giuliani-state.html

Quote
As a backup plan, some of Mr. Trump’s aides encouraged him to meet with Mr. Romney. Though some in Mr. Trump’s inner circle, like Reince Priebus, his choice for chief of staff, thought that such a meeting would anger the president-elect’s supporters, Mr. Trump went ahead. In the meantime, he started sounding out Mr. Giuliani on a different post, director of national intelligence. Mr. Trump’s advisers have discussed the role for Mr. Giuliani, but there has been no indication he wants it.

What many people believed would be a perfunctory meeting with Mr. Romney last weekend at Mr. Trump’s golf club in Bedminster, N.J., turned into something more substantial.

Mr. Trump liked Mr. Romney quite a bit, and was intrigued by the possibility of such a camera-ready option to represent the country around the globe, advisers to Mr. Trump said. The following day, Mr. Giuliani met with Mr. Trump and urged him to make a decision in one direction or the other.
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Privately, Mr. Giuliani has expressed his frustration at going from front-runner for secretary of state to a contender who has to convince Mr. Trump of his strengths. He is particularly irritated over the focus on his business ties.

The option of a third person like General Kelly has gained currency in recent days inside the transition team. A respected leader, General Kelly served as the senior military assistant to former Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta. He led the Southern Command, responsible for all United States military activities in South and Central America, for four years under Mr. Obama. And his appointment would fit Mr. Trump’s inclination toward putting people with combat experience in senior foreign policy roles.
112  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: November 25, 2016, 09:19:30 am
Again, can we please move these lengthy debates about who the best nominee would be to other threads?  This thread is about news on the potential presidential candidates.  Nothing wrong with riffing a bit on some of that news to express your opinion on a candidate when his/her name comes up in one of the news stories, but the idea is not to initiate debates on who the nominee should be out of thin air.
113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: changes in party support for selected crosstabs according to the exit polls on: November 25, 2016, 09:02:06 am
NYT shows this in one way or another in its exit polling (arrows to the right of each group compares margin to 4 years prior).

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html?_r=0

Yeah, but I think that's just telling you the change in differential between the two parties, rather than the change in absolute support....which'll be a different answer, due to the increase in 3rd party support from 2012 to 2016.
114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The United States of Gerontocracy on: November 24, 2016, 11:10:11 pm
Here's my combined list:

GOP:

Donald Trump 74
John Kasich 68
Mike Pence 61
Ted Cruz 49

Dems:

Bernie Sanders: 79
Joe Biden: 78
Elizabeth Warren: 71
Sherrod Brown: 68
Al Franken: 69
Cory Booker: 47
Gillibrand: 49
Duckworth: 48
Harris: 52
Klobuchar: 56

You're mixing up their current ages with their ages in 2020.  E.g., Sanders will be 79 in 2020, but Booker will be 51, as he's 47 now.  Gillibrand will be 53, as she's 49 now.  Kamala Harris will be 56 as she's 52 now, etc.

Also, I maintain that Justin Amash is a lot more likely to primary Trump than either Cruz or Kasich.  Amash will only be 40 in 2020.
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: November 24, 2016, 11:04:11 pm
Gillibrand reaching out to Hillary's donors.

Interesting:

Quote
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is already reaching out to top Hillary Clinton donors about the 2020 presidential race.

Sources tell us that the New York senator has been personally making calls to some of Clinton’s biggest backers to “talk about the direction of the country.”

One source said, “She isn’t directly asking donors about her chances in 2020, but it is implied.”


However, while Gillibrand has close ties to Clinton’s political network, the move hasn’t gone down well with some Clinton supporters. “Many of us are still grieving. It’s like going after the widow at a funeral.”
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If she were to run, it could set up an interesting clash of New Yorkers for the Democratic nomination. Gov. Andrew Cuomo has already made it clear he wants to make a run for the White House.
116  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: changes in party support for selected crosstabs according to the exit polls on: November 24, 2016, 02:44:51 pm
*bump*

Rather than starting a new thread on this, I’ll just post it here.  So, while Trump did win (at least in the electoral college), he also underperformed House Republicans nationally.  And we also have a national exit poll for House races:

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/house

so we can see which demographics Trump underperformed the most in.

Mormons
Trump +23 (16% 3rd party)
House GOP +49 (1% 3rd party)

Republicans
Trump +80 (4% 3rd party)
House GOP +90 (2% 3rd party)
[And furthermore, it looks like it’s more Republican women than Republican men that are the difference.  House GOP over House Dems is +91 among Republican women, but Republican women are only +79 for Trump over Clinton.]

postgraduate degree holders
Clinton +21 (5% 3rd party)
House Dems +13 (1% 3rd party)

And the demographic where Trump most significantly overperformed House Republicans:

household income under $50,000
Clinton +8 (6% 3rd party)
House Dems +14 (2% 3rd party)
117  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Youth Vote on: November 24, 2016, 01:18:31 pm
It looks like it wasn't any better for Dems in House races.  In the national exit poll, among those 18-29, 56% voted Dem. in their House race, vs. 42% for the Republicans.  So even if Clinton wasn't strong among youngs (compared to expectations), it's not like the downballot Dems were doing any better.
118  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Obama for House Speaker 2018? on: November 24, 2016, 12:34:14 pm
Not that I take this seriously, but it's a fun hypothetical:

link

Quote
Such is the question posed by this Change.org petition, which was ... well, it was posted by a friend of mine. It's called "President Obama: Run for Speaker of the House in 2018," and it outlines a practical and eminently constitutional path by which Obama could become the second-most-powerful elected official in America two years from now.

Here's the whole deal: The president's Chicago residence is in Illinois' 1st Congressional District, which is represented by Bobby Rush. If Rush were to step aside in 2018—not entirely implausible, as he turns 70 today and has served in the House since 1993—Obama could run for Rush's seat while campaigning nationally for other Democratic House candidates on the premise that he'd be selected as Speaker if the party won a majority. The Dems will need to flip either 24 or 25 districts to take the 218 seats necessary to control the 435-member chamber, and that currently seems like a long shot—but it'd be less of one with a popular national figure to rally around. Current House Dem leader Nancy Pelosi's national favorability rating is 28.5 percent, according to Huffington Post's poll aggregator; Obama's approval rating by the same measure is 53.5 percent.
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Donald Trump, of course, lost the national popular vote and is the least popular incoming chief executive in modern history by a large margin. Speaker Obama would be a formidable national foil to President Trump, and not just for the attention he'd command from the public and the press. An Obama who occasionally speaks out about issues of public importance while mostly, like, working on his memoirs is one thing. An Obama with formal powers over the legislative process is another thing altogether, and the prospect of putting such a trusted figure in a high-leverage position would likely motivate midterm Democratic turnout more than anything Obama may be planning to do as a civilian.
119  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Transition Team/Cabinet Thread on: November 24, 2016, 11:45:50 am
Rohrabacher talks to Breitbart News, and says he'd accept the Secretary of State job if offered:

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/11/23/exclusive-rep-dana-rohrabacher-if-trump-offered-me-secretary-of-state-i-would-take-it/

Quote
“I am not such an egotist, where I feel like I have to be the number one guy, but I believe what I believe will be good for America–and I believe my beliefs are the closest to what Donald Trump believes in and the policies he’s been advocating in his campaign,” ” said Rep. Dana T. Rohrabacher, who chairs the House Foreign Relations Committee’s subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia and Emerging Threats.

“If I would be offered this job, I would take it–not because I need to do it like so many people with an ego, such that they need to be secretary of state, but I do believe it would be my duty to jump into that and to take that job and that responsibility just for patriotic reasons,” he said.
120  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: November 24, 2016, 11:34:51 am
Greg Giroux ‏@greggiroux  45m45 minutes ago
Senator-elect @KamalaHarris (D-CA) has set up a leadership PAC: Fearless for the People PAC
http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/fecimg/?_201611210300119592+0  #casen #capolitics



Doesn't necessarily mean much though.

Speaking of PACs, it looks like on Martin O'Malley's Twitter account, he still links to the O'Say Can You See PAC that supported him in the primaries:

https://martinomalley.com

According to the FEC, it had $57,000 cash on hand remaining a the end of September:

http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00525220/1108401/

I assume it'll start fundraising again if O'Malley decides to run again.
121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Process / Re: GOP Sets Out to Prevent Another Donald Trump in 2020 on: November 24, 2016, 11:23:21 am
I strongly think that primary reform should be a major topic in both parties, with this being a fantastic opportunity to do away with abominations like the Iowa Caucus (and caucuses in general) and create a far more streamlined primary process, perhaps starting in March and lasting through May.

If parties were more open to experimenting, this would be the perfect time to roll out IRV. IRV would be perfect for primaries, with their clown-car assortment of huge numbers of candidates.

I've been hoping, for many years, that the whole country would do away with allowing each state to choose its own date for presidential caucus or primary. I've been hoping for a nation-wide schedule to be set up in which no state is allowed to hold a primary caucus before April 1, that only small states (1 or 2 seats in the House of Reps) hold them during April, only medium-size states (3 to 10 seats in the House) hold them during May, and lastly make all of the largest states wait until June. So I hope you're right that, because of this year's election, both parties are going to be eager for significant changes.

I don't see how that's going to happen.  The parties are happy to let the state governments pay for the primary (in most states), meaning that the states are free to choose their own dates.  Now, the parties can and are influencing the date selection by imposing penalties for states going outside a specified window, but to herd the states as significantly as what you're suggesting seems unrealistic as long as the states are running the elections and footing the bill.
122  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Transition Team/Cabinet Thread on: November 24, 2016, 11:04:07 am
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/11/24/trump-expected-to-tap-billionaire-investor-wilbur-ross-for-commerce-secretary/

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Wilbur Ross, the billionaire investor considered the “king of bankruptcy” for buying beaten-down companies with the potential to deliver profits, is expected to be President-elect Donald Trump’s choice for commerce secretary, two officials with knowledge of the decision said.
123  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Transition Team/Cabinet Thread on: November 24, 2016, 12:21:59 am
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-advisers-divided-secretary-state-pick/story?id=43742340

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As President-elect Donald Trump weighs his choice for secretary of state, he is facing competing schools of thought in his close circle of advisers over the wisdom of selecting Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani or someone else for the key position.

Advocates for GOP former presidential nominee Romney, who has international renown from his time running the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympic Games, say his selection would send a signal of reassurance to the country and show flexibility in Trump’s choices for his administration. Some are worried that Giuliani, whose global business interests have drawn scrutiny, could have trouble getting confirmed.

But some Trump loyalists like Newt Gingrich say picking Romney would be a big mistake, given his sharp public criticism of Trump.

There are voices in the Trump circle suggesting he look at other candidates, such as retired Gen. David Petraeus, who said Wednesday he would be open to a job in the Trump administration. Petraeus is highly regarded by leaders in both parties on Capitol Hill, but his 2015 guilty plea to a misdemeanor charge of mishandling classified information could complicate an appointment.
124  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Some Clinton electors lobbying for EC protest votes? on: November 23, 2016, 02:58:25 pm
To be clear, these folks seem to be aware that convincing enough Trump electors to defect to swing the election is probably hopeless.  Their tactic is more aimed at convincing enough Clinton electors to defect to Sanders or someone else that it draws national media attention to the stupidity of the electoral college.
125  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Transition Team/Cabinet Thread on: November 23, 2016, 01:44:13 pm
Ben Carson seems to have all but confirmed that he's taking the job as HUD Secretary:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/carson-signals-hes-likely-to-be-hud-chief/article/2608100

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Former Republican presidential hopeful Ben Carson signaled in a Facebook post Wednesday he is likely to named secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development in President-elect Trump's administration.

"After serious discussions with the Trump transition team, I feel that I can make a significant contribution particularly to making our inner cities great for everyone," wrote Carson, who was confirmed as a "serious" contender for the Cabinet-level position in a tweet by Trump on Tuesday.

"We have much work to do in strengthening every aspect of our nation and ensuring that both our physical infrastructure and our spiritual infrastructure is solid," he continued.
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