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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Rubio's "let's dispel with this fiction" comments become his "Dean Scream"? on: February 07, 2016, 03:17:04 am
More like his "oops" moment.

Agreed. Dean Scream didn't actually kill Dean's candidacy. The oops moment almost certainly killed Perry's. This will kill Rubio's candidacy.

Perry was already well on the decline prior to Oops. That just sealed his fate. The same was true of Dean.

This is somewhat different because Rubio was actually on an upward trajectory.

OK, so maybe it's his version of Hillary Clinton's "illegal immigrant driver's licenses", with Chris Christie in the role of Chris Dodd?  Tongue
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who lost the ABC debate? on: February 07, 2016, 02:35:46 am
Biggest loser of the night was us, the home viewing audience, as we were denied the chance to hear how President Carson would solve the North Korea problem.
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who lost the ABC debate? on: February 07, 2016, 01:08:35 am
For those who missed, here's the moment when Rubio had his meltdown:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuYbDP2kDfg
104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie to appear on SNL with comedy legend Larry David! on: February 07, 2016, 12:09:29 am
Sanders changed his Twitter profile pic to Larry David for the evening:


105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie to appear on SNL with comedy legend Larry David! on: February 07, 2016, 12:05:05 am

106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC Manchester, NH GOP debate @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 06, 2016, 10:52:26 pm

107  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC Manchester, NH GOP debate @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 06, 2016, 10:45:00 pm
Does Cruz get a rebuttal on Trump's closing statement?
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC Manchester, NH GOP debate @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 06, 2016, 10:40:21 pm
Q: Senator Rubio, who is going to win the Super Bowl?

Rubio: Barack Obama knows EXACTLY what he's doing with respect to the Super Bowl...


Watching Chris Hayes's twitter feed too?

No, did he say the same thing?
109  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC Manchester, NH GOP debate @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 06, 2016, 10:37:00 pm
Q: Senator Rubio, who is going to win the Super Bowl?

Rubio: Barack Obama knows EXACTLY what he's doing with respect to the Super Bowl...
110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC Manchester, NH GOP debate @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 06, 2016, 08:21:56 pm
Again, it should be noted that Trump didn't *publicly* say the Iraq War was a mistake until a year after it started.
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC Manchester, NH GOP debate @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 06, 2016, 08:16:28 pm
That Lindsey Graham and John McCain skit .......

They work as Statler and Waldorf.
112  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC Manchester, NH GOP debate @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 06, 2016, 08:13:49 pm
The TV schedule says this program is supposed to last 3 hours (including commentary).  I'm assuming the debate itself will be 2 hours, while the rest if commentary?
113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC Manchester, NH GOP debate @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 06, 2016, 08:10:48 pm
And so it begins...

All I'm getting is pre-debate coverage? Has it already started?

No, I guess it doesn't start for another 8 minutes.
114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC Manchester, NH GOP debate @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 06, 2016, 08:01:32 pm
And so it begins...
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC Manchester, NH GOP debate @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 06, 2016, 07:52:11 pm
Fill in the blank:

This will be the final presidential primary debate for the following candidates: ________
116  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC Manchester, NH GOP debate @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 06, 2016, 07:50:13 pm
The live stream seems to be working for me:

http://abcnews.go.com/politics/election
117  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: latest Betfair odds on: February 06, 2016, 07:43:14 pm
Last update before the GOP debateÖ

Up: Bush
Down: Trump

Democrats
Clinton 81.3
Sanders 18.6

Republicans
Rubio 56.8
Trump 24.8
Cruz 13.8
Bush 6.4
Kasich 1.2
Christie 0.8
Ryan 0.5
Romney 0.3
Carson 0.2
Fiorina 0.2
118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH-ARG daily tracking poll thread on: February 06, 2016, 07:20:00 pm
If Rubio doesn't at least finish first in NH among the "establishment" candidates, the post-NH media narrative will be pretty disastrous for him.  As I said in my thread on this, his #1 priority should be driving Bush/Christie/Kasich out of the race as soon as possible.  Heck, Rubio finishing behind Kasich might also encourage Bush to stick it out longer, on the theory that the "establishment lane" is now a muddle, so maybe he still has time for a comeback.
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Reuters primary polling: tracking thread. on: February 06, 2016, 06:30:58 pm
Why are we not using the "Likely" voter filter for these results? It makes no sense to post polling numbers for people deemed to not be likely voters.



Could do so, as primary day is getting close in most of the country now.  Though the sample appears to be tiny with LVs, so MoE is huge.  Looks like for the Dems, the sample of likely voters is only about 200.
120  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / MI-IMP/Target Insyght:D: Clinton 62% Sanders 30%;R: Trump 35% Cruz 21% Rubio 21% on: February 06, 2016, 09:15:45 am
Inside Michigan Politics / Target Insyght poll of Michigan, conducted Feb. 2-4:

http://insidemichiganpolitics.com/story/16/02/05/imptarget-insyght-poll-evangelicals-donít-stop-trump-mi-holds-14-point-lead-gop

Dems

Clinton 62%
Sanders 30%

GOP

Trump 35%
Cruz 21%
Rubio 21%
Kasich 6%
Carson 5%
Bush 3%
Christie 3%
Fiorina 3%
121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH-ARG daily tracking poll thread on: February 06, 2016, 08:56:29 am
Again, I canít access ARGís website, but according to RCP, todayís update (Feb. 4-5) is:

link

Trump 34%
Kasich 17%
Rubio 16%
Cruz 9%
Bush 8%
Christie 5%
Carson 2%
Fiorina 2%
122  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Much of Trumpís campaign spending being paid to companies he owns on: February 06, 2016, 07:57:06 am
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/06/us/politics/donald-trumps-campaign-billed-as-self-funded-risks-little-of-his-fortune.html

Quote
Donald J. Trump once boasted that he could someday be the only person to turn a profit running for president. He may be closer than anyone realizes.
.
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About $2.7 million more was paid to at least seven companies Mr. Trump owns or to people who work for his real estate and branding empire, repaying them for services provided to his campaign. That total included more than $2 million for flights on his own planes and helicopter, a quarter of a million dollars to his Fifth Avenue office tower, and even $66,000 to Keith Schiller, his bodyguard and the head of security at the Trump Organization.

While the convoluted accounting is required by law ó so that Mr. Trumpís companies do not make illegal corporate contributions directly to his campaign ó it also means that Mr. Trump is in effect taking millions of dollars out of one pocket and depositing it into another.

What remains is a quintessentially Trumpian endeavor that blurs the line between campaigning and brand-building and complicates Mr. Trumpís claims that he is funding his own White House campaign. About three-quarters of Mr. Trumpís total campaign spending has either gone to reimburse his own businesses or has been covered by funds from grass-roots donors, according to an analysis by The New York Times of F.E.C. reports. Virtually all of the money Mr. Trump himself has put into the campaign was lent, rather than donated outright, meaning that he could potentially sell enough hats and T-shirts to pay himself back down the road.
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is there a way to track new voter/party registrations in key primary states? on: February 06, 2016, 07:26:35 am
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/new-hampshire-primary-turnout-218851

Quote
New Hampshire is on track for record turnout in Tuesday's presidential primary, according to officials across the state and a POLITICO review of absentee ballot data.

A potential snowstorm Tuesday could deter some people from voting. But regardless, New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner predicted on Friday that a record 550,000 voters will head to the polls next week. Gardner projected 282,000 ballots will be cast in the Republican primary and 268,000 in the Democratic contest.
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Manchester, the stateís largest city with population of about 110,000, had issued 2,117 absentee ballots as of Thursday. In 2008, it counted only 1,825 absentee primary votes. While only 1,587 have been returned so far this year, town clerks throughout the state said 90 percent to 95 percent of those who request absentee ballots mail them back in.
124  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: primary/caucus day weather thread on: February 06, 2016, 07:19:46 am
Manchester weather forecast: Now down to 40% chance of snow on Tuesday.  High temp just below freezing.
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / ABC Manchester, NH GOP debate @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 06, 2016, 07:16:16 am
ABC will broadcast the next GOP debate tonight, starting from 8pm Eastern, and featuring these guys:



http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/everything-you-need-to-know-about-saturday-gop-debate-218831

Quote
The debate will be moderated by ABCís David Muir and Martha Raddatz. Local WMUR anchor Josh McElveen will contribute questions, as will conservative writer Mary Katharine Ham.

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2016/02/republican_presidential_debate_5.html

Quote
You can watch on the network or on a live stream at  ABCNews.go.com.

Post your live commentary here, including pre-game commentary.
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