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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How similar are Kasich and Huntsman, and why would Kasich be better than Bush? on: July 29, 2015, 09:33:51 am
In addition, Kasich has a Kemp like focus on practical ways to effectively help the less fortunate life themselves up, in a way Bush has not.

Which still seems weird to me, as someone who remembers the budget battles of the 90s.  Kasich (as House Budget Chair) was singularly focused on squeezing the federal budget above all else back then, wasn't he?  I don't remember Kasich being sympatico with compassionate conservatism at that time.  Seems like it's something that he embraced only as governor of Ohio.  And even then, as far as I can tell, he really only started doing this "What will I say to St. Peter?" stuff in the latter half of his first term in office, when his reelection prospects were looking dicey.  (Not to be cynical about this.  Tongue )
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is it just me, or does Trump seem untouchable? on: July 29, 2015, 09:18:57 am
Even one of these events would have been enough to take down one of the 2011 flavors of the month.

Not in all cases.  It took quite a few sexual harrassment claims (not to mention a fair few stupid comments and senior moments) to take down Cain.


Well it wasn't so much that it was insufficient to take him down than it was that multiple claims were needed in order for them to be taken seriously.

Right.  But it's similar with Trump and the Ivana allegation.  If there were several more stories like that, Trump would be toast.
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is it just me, or does Trump seem untouchable? on: July 29, 2015, 09:14:24 am
Even one of these events would have been enough to take down one of the 2011 flavors of the month.

Not in all cases.  It took quite a few sexual harrassment claims (not to mention a fair few stupid comments and senior moments) to take down Cain.
104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IL-PPP: Hillary dominating on: July 29, 2015, 09:10:45 am
Clinton 48%
Bush 39%

Sanders 42%
Bush 37%

Clinton 49%
Carson 37%

Clinton 49%
Christie 35%

Clinton 51%
Cruz 35%

Clinton 49%
Fiorina 34%

Clinton 51%
Huckabee 35%

Clinton 47%
Paul 37%

Clinton 49%
Rubio 37%

Clinton 51%
Trump 33%

Sanders 48%
Trump 32%

Clinton 50%
Walker 39%

Sanders 40%
Walker 36%
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IL-PPP: Hillary dominating on: July 29, 2015, 08:47:04 am
Same sample that gives Obama a 47%-46% (+1) approval gives Clinton a 45%-47% (-2) favorable.  PPP doesn't appear to be picking up on any Clinton favorability crash.

Isn't 45%/47% for Clinton a rather poor showing, given how Democratic the state is?
106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Biden waiting so long to make a decision? on: July 29, 2015, 08:45:19 am
I wrote this about a year and a half ago:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=187658.0

I will now accept my accolades.
107  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: IL-PPP: Walker +5 on: July 29, 2015, 08:42:10 am
On the GOP side, who leads among...?

moderates: Trump
somewhat conservative: Walker
very conservative: Walker
age 18-45: Trump
age 46-65: Walker
age 65+: Walker

fav/unfav % among their own party for the top 3 Republicans:

Walker 64/15% for +49%
Bush 39/36% for +3%
Trump 44/43% for +1%
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IL-PPP: Hillary dominating on: July 29, 2015, 08:37:43 am
Walker has a 64/15 favorable rating in IL. Interesting.

That's only among Republicans.
109  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: IL-PPP: Walker +5 on: July 29, 2015, 08:33:17 am
Dems

Clinton 60%
Sanders 23%
O'Malley 4%
Webb 3%
Chafee 1%

GOP

Walker 23%
Trump 18%
Bush 11%
Christie 8%
Carson 7%
Rubio 6%
Huckabee 5%
Paul 5%
Cruz 4%
Fiorina 3%
Jindal 2%
Santorum 2%
Graham 1%
Kasich 1%
Perry 1%
Gilmore 0%
Pataki 0%

23% of Republicans said that they agreed with Trump's comments about McCain, while 52% disagreed.
110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is it just me, or does Trump seem untouchable? on: July 29, 2015, 07:27:27 am
Ok so we have Trump's comments about immigrants, Trump's attacks on McCain, Trump-Graham incident, and the whole Ivana Trump accusations (although she said they were still friends and walked back on that).

He's also apparently disgusted by lawyers taking breaks to use a breast pump:

http://edition.cnn.com/videos/us/2015/07/29/trump-disgusting-breast-milk-pump-attorney.cnn/video/playlists/most-popular-domestic/
111  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Mullah Omar dead. on: July 29, 2015, 06:03:35 am
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/mullah-omar-dead-afghan-security-source-tells-nbc-news-n400206

Quote
The Afghan government confirmed Wednesday it was looking into reports that longtime Taliban leader Mullah Omar had died.

"We have also seen reports in the media on the death of Mullah Omar, we are assessing those reports," President Ashraf Ghani's deputy spokesperson Zafar Hashemi told journalists during a press conference.
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Earlier Wednesday, an Afghan intelligence official told NBC News the government had come to the conclusion the longtime militant leader had died.
112  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Gilmore to announce candidacy on Thursday on: July 29, 2015, 03:54:42 am
Breaking news from Gil-world: Gilmore's announcement is happening on Thursday:

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsmax-Tv/Jim-Gilmore-interested-presidential-race/2015/07/28/id/659352/

Quote
Asked on "The Steve Malzberg Show" whether he is throwing his hat into the ring, Gilmore — president of Free Congress Foundation, a conservative think tank — said Tuesday:

"We'll let you know on Thursday. At that point there's going to be an announcement that you'll probably be interested in, but the goal here is to do the right thing for the United States."

EDIT: What does that mean?  What is "the right thing for the United States"?  I'm dying to know.  Sad
113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sarah Palin supports Donald Trump on: July 29, 2015, 03:22:47 am
I just noticed that the headline of that story is:

Donald Trump says he'd tap Sarah Palin for a Cabinet post

Maybe the editors should have thought that one over a little more before publishing.
114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NH Union Leader to hold candidate 'forum' 3 days before FOX debate on: July 29, 2015, 02:02:35 am
This story gives some further hints as to the format: A succession of five minute interviews?

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/hearst-television-to-carry-august-3-new-hampshire-presidential-forum-on-its-tv-stations-across-the-country-300120202.html

Quote
The two-hour forum will start at 7pm ET at the Dana Center at St. Anselm College in Goffstown, New Hampshire, on Monday, August 3.  Currently 14 candidates are scheduled to appear: Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum and Scott Walker.  Jack Heath of Manchester's WGIR-AM Radio, host of the station's New Hampshire Today program, will moderate the forum. Each candidate will have approximately five minutes to answer questions individually on the stage.
115  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of Nevada on: July 29, 2015, 01:44:35 am
Fond memories of waiting all day for this state's Republican Party to count caucus votes in 2012.  A true highlight of that year's presidential campaign.

#ThingsFasterThanNVGOP

https://twitter.com/hashtag/ThingsFasterThanNVGOP?src=hash
116  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Does your family know about the infraction point system? on: July 29, 2015, 01:35:32 am
I'm waiting for the right moment to inform my mother of the demise of death points.  I hope she's sitting down, as I'm sure it will be very traumatic.

have cold wash cloths ready.  Also, maybe a good slug of bourbon.  Maybe have psychiatrists on standby in case she needs an emergency prescription of xanax.

Problem is, she's 10,000 miles away, so I was planning to do it over Skype.  However, I'm visiting the US in about a month, so maybe I should just wait until then, so I can tell her in person.
117  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Does your family know about the infraction point system? on: July 29, 2015, 12:25:41 am
I'm waiting for the right moment to inform my mother of the demise of death points.  I hope she's sitting down, as I'm sure it will be very traumatic.
118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Gilmore to announce candidacy "later this week" on: July 28, 2015, 11:34:46 pm
Castro, that is gold.

Still virtually no media picking up on this story.  ABC News does have a new profile of him though:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/meet-jim-gilmore-potential-2016-republican-presidential-candidate/story?id=32670102

Is this his only public FB page?:

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Jim-Gilmore/113147925363204?ref=br_rs

No one has commented there since July 8th.  Should we all go over there and demand details about his campaign rollout?

Also, is this forum the only place in the universe in which a thread about Jim Gilmore running for president racks up 30 replies within two days?
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: latest Betfair odds on: July 28, 2015, 09:17:23 pm
Rubio crash continues.  Has lost about half his value since June 24th.  Trump passes Paul for fourth place.

Bush 42.2
Walker 16.3
Rubio 12.8
Trump 7.8
Paul 6.8
Huckabee 5.5
Christie 4.2
Carson 3.8
Cruz 3.4
Kasich 3.1

Four years ago at roughly this time on Intrade:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2973381#msg2973381

Quote
GOP nomination

Perry 31.4
Romney 31.0
Bachmann 8.0
Palin 7.8
Huntsman 7.4
Pawlenty 5.9
Giuliani 2.0
Paul 1.9
Christie 1.5
Gingrich 0.8
Pataki 0.7
Cain 0.6
Johnson 0.5
J. Bush 0.4
Santorum 0.4

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1250941#msg1250941

Quote
Democrats
Clinton 48.2
Obama 36.0
Edwards 6.7
Gore 4.5
Richardson 2.6
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.8

Republicans
Giuliani 35.7
Thompson 32.9
Romney 16.8
McCain 4.8
Gingrich 3.3
Paul 3.3
Hagel 0.9
Rice 0.8
Huckabee 0.5
Bloomberg 0.2
Brownback 0.2
Cheney 0.1
J. Bush 0.1
120  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What's wrong with the Rand Paul campaign? on: July 28, 2015, 09:04:08 pm
Not sure if this has already been posted here, but Politico also has a story on this:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/rand-paul-2016-downward-spiral-gop-campaign-120716.html?ml=po

Quote
Interviews with more than a dozen sources close to the Kentucky senator, all of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity, painted a picture of an underfunded and understaffed campaign beaten down by low morale.
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At Paul’s campaign headquarters on Capitol Hill, morale has begun to sink. At least one key aide recently departed, and others have had conversations with rival campaigns.

“It’s such a negative environment,” said one Paul aide. “Everyone is on edge, and no one is having any fun. They need to recapture some of their positive mojo, and fast.”

On fundraising:

Quote
Those close to Paul say there’s a simple reason for his lack of success: He’s simply not willing to do the stroking and courting that powerful donors expect. He’s downright allergic, they say, to the idea of forging relationships with the goal of pumping people for dough. And while he’s had no shortage of opportunities to mix and mingle with some of the Republican Party’s wealthiest figures, Paul has expressed frustration that donors want so much face time.
121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sarah Palin supports Donald Trump on: July 28, 2015, 08:57:05 pm
Apparently the feeling is mutual:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/donald-trump-2016-sarah-palin-cabinet-post-120747.html

Quote
When asked on Sarah Palin’s Mama Grizz Radio’s “The Palin Update” Monday whether he would seek the former Alaska governor’s advice as president or potentially appoint her to an executive-branch position, Trump said, “I’d love that.”

“She’s really somebody who knows what’s happening. She’s a special person. She’s really a special person. And I think people know that and she’s got a following that’s unbelievable,” he continued. (Palin has more than 4 million Facebook followers.)
122  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which of these will you watch live next week? on: July 28, 2015, 08:06:46 pm
Will the main Fox news one be available online, for those without cable?

Probably.  I think all of the debates from the last election cycle were streamed online, but I don't remember for sure.
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Fox removes 1% polling requirement for "kiddie table" debate on: July 28, 2015, 05:48:51 pm
Pataki, Graham, and (if he runs) Gilmore are safe:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/fox-republican-debate-lowers-threshold-120748.html

Quote
Fox News is opening its 5 p.m. debate to all the announced Republican candidates who fail to make the cut for the Aug. 6 prime-time event, removing a requirement that participants reach at least 1 percent in polling.

The change amounts to an insurance policy for candidates who were in danger of being disqualified from the vital first debate based on low polls – Carly Fiorina, former New York Gov. George Pataki and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).

The announcement by Michael Clemente, Fox News Executive Vice President, News, means that all 16 announced candidates will qualify for Cleveland — either the 5 p.m. undercard, or the 9 p.m. main event.
124  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Trump's inner circle on: July 28, 2015, 03:59:53 pm
Worth a read:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/meet-the-proud-bullies-goons-and-thugs-in-donald-trumps-inne?utm_term=.eqWZYWoDZQ#.ntjdQOp7M

Quote
Cohen’s outburst was, in fact, emblematic of the loyalists who have long populated The Donald’s inner circle. Trump’s key lieutenants tend to fit the same consumer profile as his discount luxury-brand targets: They are men with middle- and working-class roots; lacking in elite credentials; mesmerized by made-for-TV displays of lavish wealth. They are impressed with brashness and bored by subtlety. They are amused by dirty jokes and averse to irony. They are likely to buy a Trump-branded necktie sometime this year, and if they feel like splurging they’ll get the matching cufflinks, too.

This isn’t a caricature I came up with; it is central to the ethos of Trump’s political operation. On the day after the 2012 election, one of Trump’s advisers described for me the billionaire’s appeal to blue-collar voters: “If you have no education, and you work with your hands, you like him. It’s like, ‘Wow, if I was rich, that’s how I would live!’ The girls, the cars, the fancy suits. His ostentatiousness is appealing to them.” That may be crass, but it didn’t strike me as elitist: Trump’s political advisers see themselves as descendants of this same tribe.
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which of these will you watch live next week? on: July 28, 2015, 03:53:51 pm
Will the NH forum be televised?

Yes, it'll be on C-SPAN (as well as local TV in New Hampshire).
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