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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Marist/NBC: Ties in both IA & NH on: July 17, 2014, 06:01:44 am
Iowa

Dems

Clinton 70%
Biden 20%

GOP

Bush 12%
Paul 12%
Ryan 11%
Santorum 9%
Christie 8%
Perry 7%
Cruz 7%
Rubio 7%
Walker 5%
Jindal 1%


New Hampshire

Dems

Clinton 74%
Biden 18%

GOP

Paul 14%
Christie 13%
Bush 10%
Cruz 9%
Ryan 7%
Rubio 7%
Walker 6%
Perry 5%
Jindal 4%
Santorum 3%
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Chris Christie going to run in 2016? on: July 17, 2014, 02:29:25 am
Yes, of course he's running*.  Why else did he go to Adleson-fest a couple of months ago, why else is he suddenly talking about foreign policy, and why else has there been this recent rightward shift in his rhetoric?:

http://themoderatevoice.com/196747/signs-are-chris-christie-is-running-for-president-rhetoric-veers-right/

* That is, he's running right now, as are a number of others.  Whether he'll still be in the race in ~9 months or so, when it's time to set up an exploratory committee, I don't know.
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bolton: Knowing what we know today, Iraq War was still the right decision on: July 17, 2014, 02:23:52 am
The surveys on the website of Bolton's Super PAC also include these:






104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: July 17, 2014, 02:21:04 am
Bolton's Super PAC is airing ads in New Hampshire against Rep. Ann Kuster over Benghazi:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/07/16/john-boltons-super-pac-to-launch-first-ad-in-new-hampshire/

Quote
The spot slams Rep. Ann Kuster of New Hampshire for a muddled answer to a constituent's question regarding the establishment of a select committee to investigate the 2012 attack in Benghazi, Libya.

"Congresswoman Ann Kuster is clueless about Benghazi," the narrator in the video says followed by a clip of the Democratic representative faltering to deliver an answer.
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: July 16, 2014, 08:27:18 pm
Manchin on 2016:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/16/manchin-2016-president_n_5592368.html

Quote
I’m flattered that people are encouraging me to run for president, but right now I am focused on finding ways to pass commonsense legislation in our nation’s capital to make our country work better. I feel like I am in a unique position to help our country become a better place for all Americans. Right now that is my focus, but I will always be interested in finding better ways to serve the great state of West Virginia and the American people. We will have to see what the future holds.
106  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XV: Stuck Inside of Tulsa with the Oklahoma City Blues Again on: July 16, 2014, 06:05:37 pm
I don't really have an aversion to talking on the phone,  but I just happen to prefer face to face interactions.

Yet you've taken countless jobs (including this one) that involve talking to people on the phone all day…
107  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Ask Dave Leip on: July 16, 2014, 07:54:49 am
OK, maybe this thread title will work better.  This is the trend nowadays, so if you have anything to ask Mr. Leip, ask away.
108  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Don't ask Mr. Morden on: July 16, 2014, 07:53:10 am
Why not?

I told you not to ask.

That….is why you fail.
109  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: O'Malley on border crisis: "We can't send children back to death" on: July 16, 2014, 05:39:17 am
So apparently the Obama people were a bit annoyed by O'Malley's comments, and he made it worse when he said that he didn't want the kids to come to a facility in Maryland…..because it's in a conservative part of the state, where they might be harassed(!):

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/07/martin-omalley-border-children-maryland-108959.html?hp=l7

Quote
Hours after the Maryland governor and prospective 2016 presidential candidate became the most prominent Democrat to criticize the White House on the issue, Domestic Policy Director Cecilia Muñoz called O’Malley to complain.

But before they hung up, O’Malley told Muñoz not to send any of the children to the facility in Westminster, Md., that the White House was looking at. It’s a conservative part of the state, he warned. The children were at risk of getting harassed, or worse, he said.
.
.
.
White House aides confirmed the Friday conversation but declined further comment. But O’Malley aides say he’s been trying to find an alternative to the Western Maryland location, and there’s already one possibility at the preliminary stages of the process.
110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Q2 fundraising: Draft Ben Carson PAC again out-raises Ready4Hillary on: July 15, 2014, 08:58:30 pm
2nd quarter fundraising.....RunBenRung.org raised $3.3 million in the second quarter:

http://www.mlive.com/news/detroit/index.ssf/2014/07/detroits_dr_ben_carson_gains_m.html

which puts it ahead of Ready for Hillary for the second quarter in a row.  Ready for Hillary raised $2.5 million in the second quarter:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-15/ready-for-hillary-raises-2-5-million-over-three-months.html

Meanwhile, John Bolton has two PACs, which collectively raised $2.3 million in the second quarter:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/211908-un-amb-john-bolton-raises-23m-for-political-groups-in-q2
111  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Don't ask Mr. Morden on: July 15, 2014, 08:41:16 pm
I know the cool thing now is for people to post threads inviting questions about themselves, but I'm not going to answer your stupid questions, so please don't bother asking.

Thank you.
112  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Pew polls the world on opinions of the US, China, etc. on: July 15, 2014, 08:37:31 pm
Oh, and going back to the 2014 survey, here are the numbers for Obama:


113  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Pew polls the world on opinions of the US, China, etc. on: July 15, 2014, 08:34:44 pm
What's up with Greece?

They've been down on the US and Western Europe ever since the economic meltdown, and have started giving higher ratings to traditional Western adversaries Russia and China.

This is from Pew's survey in 2012 (so before the recent issues with Russia and Ukraine, but still), showing the Greeks having a higher opinion of Putin than Obama, Merkel, or Ban Ki-Moon:


114  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Pew polls the world on opinions of the US, China, etc. on: July 15, 2014, 08:28:31 pm
So, Americans think Britain is their greatest ally? That's a bit of a snub to their biggest trading partner Sad

Remember we declined following them in Irak, unlike Blair.

I don't think it's just that.  Before that, there was the UK participating in the enforcement of the Iraqi no-fly zones for 12 years and joining in stuff like Operation Desert Fox, there was the UK joining in the initial bombing of Afghanistan in October 2001 (though yes, of course Canada and other allies sent troops in shortly thereafter).  More recently, you have Libya in 2011 (which, again, yes, I know Canada participated too, but it was Cameron and Sarkozy who were agitating for action, and it was billed as a US/UK/France mission before the rest of NATO got involved).

In all of these cases, even when Canada participates, it doesn't get as much credit as the UK, both because the UK's position on the Security Council automatically gives it a higher profile, and because the UK's larger population/GDP/military capabilities means that it's coming in with more resources.
115  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Pew polls the world on opinions of the US, China, etc. on: July 15, 2014, 06:28:44 pm
So, Americans think Britain is their greatest ally? That's a bit of a snub to their biggest trading partner Sad

War trumps trade on people's notions of "greatest ally".
116  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in the Dairyland? on: July 15, 2014, 06:27:18 pm
Walker by about 120, as Burke's popularity is driven so far into the ground that a quantum field creates thousands of ballots with her name crossed off, thus reducing her support into negative numbers.

In reality, Walker by about 2.
117  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Forum Community Guidelines on: July 15, 2014, 06:20:29 pm
Given Dave's wishes about limiting long threads, shouldn't the "Opinion of Previous Poster's Signature Thread" being retired, and a "Part 2" created?
118  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XV: Stuck Inside of Tulsa with the Oklahoma City Blues Again on: July 15, 2014, 06:15:08 pm
bushie do you have a phone phobia?

i actually had one for many years.

I don't have phone phobia, but I did recently realize that I virtually never make phone calls anymore.  Whatever I once might have used phone calls for has now been replaced by email, Facebook, and video calls (via either Google or Skype).  And on the rare occasions when I make phone calls, it's as likely to be done via Gmail on my laptop than it is via an actual phone.
119  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XV: Stuck Inside of Tulsa with the Oklahoma City Blues Again on: July 15, 2014, 06:11:42 pm
BK, that still doesn't change reality.

Why do you refuse to call, or respond to any questions about calling??   This shouldn't be that difficult and is part of the reason why many of us believe you didn't get the certificate.  Your actions don't make any sense.

Bushie has a strange aversion to using telephones; remember he would drive to places so he could hand deliver applications or ask questions that he could easily do over the phone or online, like when he drove all the way to Alva, OK to see if he could complete his computer science degree when a simple phone call could have saved him time and money.

So then the obvious solution is a car ride to Metrotech to demand justice.
120  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Pew polls the world on opinions of the US, China, etc. on: July 15, 2014, 05:56:10 pm
Well, if the US wouldn't be so amateurish in spying Germany, the ratings there would probably be higher ... Tongue

I'm really surprised the ratings aren't lower. It's hardly any change from 2012.

The interviews were all conducted before the latest round of accusations, embassy expulsions, etc.  (Though yes, after the news of Merkel's phone being tapped.)
121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Ask Xahar on: July 15, 2014, 05:52:12 pm
This topic has been moved to Forum Community.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=195645.0
122  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Plan to split California into 6 states advances on: July 15, 2014, 08:50:38 am
Democrats would be hurt in the electoral college but would get a big boost in the Senate. I like this plan.

How would they get a huge boost in the Senate?  They already have two senators from CA as it is.  Of the new states created by this plan, two voted for Romney, and one of the Obama states only narrowly went to him by a margin of a couple of points (in a race that he won nationally).  So why would this mean a net gain of more than 1 or 2 Senators for the Democrats over the status quo?
123  General Politics / International General Discussion / Pew polls the world on opinions of the US, China, etc. on: July 15, 2014, 08:42:45 am
Here's Pew's latest world opinions survey:

http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/07/14/global-opposition-to-u-s-surveillance-and-drones-but-limited-harm-to-americas-image/

Some highlights: Asian countries on how they view their neighbors….and the US:





Next, Russia, China, and most of the Islamic world like China better than the US.  But the US still does OK in most of the rest of the world:



Favorability of the US has declined somewhat in Germany, but is otherwise doing OK among the US's closest allies.  It has taken an enormous hit in Egypt in recent years, with favorability sliding all the way down to 10% this year.  Also taken a big hit in Russia just in the past year:





Meanwhile, China isn't hugely popular in the US or Western Europe, but does OK elsewhere.  Greece does like China better than the US though:



Finally, there seems to be a lot of confusion about who is the world's leading economic power:


124  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Moderator changes on: July 15, 2014, 07:52:00 am
Incidentally, Andrew's move onto Individual Politics means that Dave has *finally* accepted Lunar's resignation as a moderator of that board.  It only took ~3 years.

However, oddly, it looks like Lunar is still listed as a moderator in his profile, even though he doesn't moderate any boards.  I guess he's a mod-at-large like Supersoulty.  Their ghosts wander the forum, looking for posts to infract in their imaginations.
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: It's almost too easy for D's to win in 2016, makes me think R's will win on: July 15, 2014, 06:29:10 am
I still think that Hillary will win if she runs, but I'm not really basing that on how she is doing in polls right now. I'm just looking at the national environment, Hillary's strengths as a potential candidate, and other things.

I agree with you.  Clinton would be the favorite at the moment.  But I don't say that because of polling, as I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that general election polling in presidential elections 2+ years before the election has any predictive value.

Heck, we've seen some crazy polling movement before *within* the election year, never mind 2 years ahead of time.  The most extreme case I can think of being:


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