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101  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Gallup poll on US favorability of other countries:Canada,UK popular N. Korea not on: February 21, 2017, 01:55:44 pm
Here’s the poll from last year, for comparison sake:



Expected Israel to be lower. Probably should be.

While Israel is still rated favorably, the partisan divide on the Israeli-Palestinian issue has been growing, as seen in Pew’s recent poll:



Has anyone besides the maple syrup commune ever come first?

Yes.  Here’s the historical data from Gallup:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/1624/perceptions-foreign-countries.aspx

In the early years of the Iraq War, the UK was ahead of Canada, for example in 2005:

Canada
favorable 86%
unfavorable 10%

UK
favorable 91%
unfavorable 4%

The 2004 poll included Australia as well, and both Australia and the UK narrowly edged Canada in net favorability that year.
102  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: What would a worldwide Putin vs. Trump favorability map look like? on: February 21, 2017, 01:38:53 pm
While this is "Confidence in [X] to do the right  thing", which is not quite the same as favorability, I found this Pew poll from last year:

http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/06/29/2-obamas-international-image-remains-strong-in-europe-and-asia/



Poland is the only one of the countries polled where Trump comes out ahead.  But again, that poll was taken last summer.  Some of the numbers may have shifted now that Trump is actually POTUS.
103  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Who has jfern criticized more since Trump has taken office? on: February 21, 2017, 12:35:10 pm
I don't think BRTD would have ever agreed with his politics.

BRTD liked jfern back when Bush was president:

Without a doubt, a true freedom fighter.
104  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: February 21, 2017, 10:55:51 am
HuffPo/YouGov national poll, conducted Feb. 17-18:

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/tabsHPPresidentTrump20170218.pdf

approve 41%
disapprove 47%

men: +4
women: -16
income under $50k: -10
income between $50k and $100k: +/-0
income over $100k: -1
Midwest: -5
Northeast: -21
South: +7
West: -13
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: A long ways off into the future, but still... on: February 21, 2017, 10:31:38 am
This topic has been moved to Presidential Election Trends.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259347.0
106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tulsi Gabbard is no more a serious candidate than Dennis Kucinich in 04/08 on: February 21, 2017, 10:08:49 am
Incidentially the only reason why I bash "Tulsibots" so much here is that this is basically the only place where they exist, the only other place on the Internet I've found people thinking she's a serious and top tier candidate, or even likely to run is her cult-like subreddit.

Hey, she also has a (remarkably active) cult-like Facebook group:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/1273065276040925/

And then there's this:

https://www.facebook.com/TulsiGabbard2020/
107  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Gallup poll on US favorability of other countries:Canada,UK popular N. Korea not on: February 21, 2017, 09:49:14 am
Gallup national poll, conducted Feb. 1-5:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/204074/north-korea-remains-least-popular-country-among-americans.aspx





More on Israel:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/203954/israel-maintains-positive-image.aspx


108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: February 21, 2017, 09:38:48 am
Kasich has a tentatively scheduled private meeting with Trump on Friday.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/20/politics/john-kasich-donald-trump/index.html

TMZ say there's a dispute over who requested the meeting:

http://www.tmz.com/2017/02/21/donald-trump-john-kasich-meeting/

Quote
Our Trump sources say it was Kasich who requested Friday's meeting, but our Kasich sources dispute that and say Trump wanted the sit-down.

Our Kasich sources also say the governor is in the dark on the purpose of the meeting ... Trump isn't saying. Trump's people say, "There's no agenda. It's just to catch up."
109  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: "Which country is the largest threat to world peace?" on: February 21, 2017, 06:38:55 am
Lol at all the countries freeloading on the US military who think the US is the largest threat to world peace. Especially countries like Germany (which spend only 1.2% of GDP on defense compared to 3.3% of GDP in the US) really should be more grateful.

Like I said upthread, the %age in Western European countries saying the US is the biggest threat isn't that much bigger than the %age in the US itself saying the US is the biggest threat.  In this poll, 17% of people in Germany said the US, which isn't *that* much higher than the 13% in the US who said the same.  So I guess the US is being ungrateful to itself?  Tongue
110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: February 20, 2017, 10:25:46 pm
New WSJ story on Amash's trolling of Trump on Twitter:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/justin-amash-emerges-as-leading-critic-of-fellow-republican-donald-trump-1487599201?mod=e2tw

Hickenlooper dodging the presidential question on CNN:

https://twitter.com/ErinBurnett/status/833869649280397312

Burnett: But it’s on the table?

Hickenlooper: Oh I don’t know, there’s going to be a lot of things on the table….

Then he quickly changed the subject.
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Difference between '08 and '20, everyone knows Booker is a Wall Street loyalist on: February 20, 2017, 06:46:06 pm
Obama tried to act nixon-esque and pander his way around the issues, this is what attracted bernie-style progressives to him back in 2008, but Booker doesn't even pretend to do that.

Booker wouldn't be relying on the same coalition that Obama relied on.  He'd be leaning on at least a subset of the Clinton 2016 primary coalition.  Doesn't actually need to get all of them, since it's probably not going to be just a 2-person race.  But he'd still need to somehow get ~35% pluralities in some of the early states, and then build from there.  Can he do it?  I don't know.  We'll have to wait and see.

Btw, on the subject of progressives being disillusioned with Booker, this isn't worth starting a brand new thread on, so I'll slip it in here: Last week at the David Friedman confirmation hearing, Booker said something to him like "I admire the depth of your love for the state of Israel", and there was a bit of Twitter snark from some on the left over that.  I'll be curious to see what kind of foreign policy divisions we get among the Dems in 2020.
112  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Eharding = Derek? on: February 20, 2017, 06:32:06 pm
Yeah, I don't buy this. I've mentioned before that I've seen plenty of Eharding posts on Marginal Revolution, for at least 2 years before he joined the forum. Apart from the ones he mentioned he also posts on Scott Sumner's blog, Bryan Caplan's blog, Steve Sailer's blog, etc.

He also has his own blog on, uh, something I lack expertise in.

So you're saying that in addition to making 50 posts a day here, he's also a prolific poster on other corners of the internet?  How much content can a man write in one day?
113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Most likely to run for the Democratic nomination on: February 20, 2017, 06:14:18 pm
The only note I'll make about Booker is that his term also expires in 2020, so he'll have to choose between reelection and the presidency (not super-familiar with NJ election law on that front).

The filing deadline for that Senate seat is in early April 2020, so he could pull a Rubio if he wanted to: Run for president, and if it's not looking good after Super Tuesday, drop out of the race and run for reelection for Senate.


Bumping this because I thought of another potential candidate for whom this could be an issue: Al Franken.  Franken of course has given a Shermanesque denial, but like I said upthread, I wouldn't rule out him changing his mind.  Like Booker, his seat is up in 2020.  Previously, Minnesota held a caucus, so this would've been a non-issue for him.  But last year Dayton signed legislation that set up a presidential primary for Minnesota in 2020.  Does this create any complications for Franken potentially running for Senate and President at the same time?  Is the presidential primary in MN doubling as a primary for congressional races, and/or can you have your name on the ballot for both positions?
114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Two Train Wrecks Underway? on: February 20, 2017, 04:14:20 pm
President Bush

Can't wait to say it again. Getting tired of saying President Hussein Obama

Good timing.

dudabides reaction to Jeb failing to win a single delegate is going to be the superior trainwreck to watch.

If Jeb Bush doesn't win the GOP nomination for President because Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, or another one of the sane candidates does better, I will be extremely disappointed, but I will support the nominee.

If, however, Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination, I will assume the Republican Party has been taken over by people who can't read and I will leave the party and support the Libertarian nominee or an independent because Trump is a socialist who hates America and I won't be a part of the downfall of the GOP.

So where's the thread of dudeabides endorsing Gary Johnson or McMullen.

He rage-quit the forum in about March 2016.

Actually, he quit before the primaries even started.  He said that the forum had become too unpleasant, so he wanted his account to be banned, then he made an obvious sock account to insure that he'd be banned.


The precipitating event was when he called Melania Trump a "bimbo":

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=224174.msg4820038#msg4820038
115  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: So Eharding is basically a spam-poster at this point on: February 20, 2017, 03:08:48 pm
This man has 2000 posts within a month and a half of joining. That is absolutely mental, he has more posts at this point than typically active users who joined in 2015!

I just looked up the stats for Rochambeau.  He managed to outdo Eharding, with ~2600 posts in the same amount of time.  Rochambeau was eventually banned for spamming, but not until he had over 12,000 posts.
116  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: "Which country is the largest threat to world peace?" on: February 20, 2017, 02:59:01 pm
You can find the data for each individual country here:

http://www.wingia.com/en/services/end_of_year_survey_2013/country_results/7/37/

China:
USA 49%
Japan 30%
North Korea 6%

France:
Syria 14%
Iran 13%
North Korea 5%

Germany:
USA 17%
Iran 16%
Syria 14%

Japan:
China 38%
North Korea 22%
USA 7%

Russia:
USA 54%
China 6%
Iraq 5%
Syria 5%

UK:
Iran 15%
USA 15%
North Korea 12%

USA:
Iran 20%
Afghanistan 14%
North Korea 13%
USA 13%

Some fun crosstabs too.  E.g., in all of the Western countries I looked at, men were more likely than women to view Iran and North Korea as a threat to world peace, whereas women were more likely than men to name Afghanistan and Iraq.

In China, it was the least educated people who tended to view the US more as a threat, whereas in Western countries it’s the more educated people who are more likely to name the US.  Also, the age gap on the US is such that in both China and Russia, people over 65 are most likely to view the US as a threat, whereas it’s more young people who say that in Western countries.

In fact, in the US itself, in the 18-24 subsample, the results are:
USA 22%
Afghanistan 15%
North Korea 13%

So a plurality of young people in the US say that the US is the biggest threat to world peace.
117  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Eharding = Derek? on: February 20, 2017, 01:53:51 pm
You guys do realize that any newbie who shows up posting at such a ridiculously high rate would inevitably invite scrutiny from me, right?  Tongue

So yes, I looked at Eharding's profile shortly after he registered last month.  No, he is not posting from the same state as Derek, nor is he posting from Russia.  There's nothing about his account that suggests sock, though the usual caveats apply that anyone who was smart enough could escape detection, so any account could be a sock account if they were covering their tracks.
118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: February 20, 2017, 01:33:35 pm
Scott Walker spoke with Iowa Republican state legislators over Skype last week:

http://fox6now.com/2017/02/14/gov-scott-walker-talks-with-iowa-republicans-before-union-vote/

Walker’s also speaking at CPAC later this week, and of course, at last summer’s RNC, he spoke with the IA, NH, and SC delegations (as did Tom Cotton)....though that was back when most people thought there was a >50% chance that Hillary Clinton would be the incumbent president in 2020 rather than Trump.  He may still have presidential ambitions, yet he really doesn’t seem like a very likely person to challenge incumbent president Trump for the nomination.  So I’m assuming that he’s either playing for 2024, or else hedging his bets in case Trump doesn’t run for another term for whatever reason.
119  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: So Eharding is basically a spam-poster at this point on: February 20, 2017, 12:22:07 pm
but hey there are many other individuals on the Forum who likely have a similarly high daily post count....

Actually, no.  He's posting more frequently than anyone else on the forum.
120  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Take ten years off Bernie's age; how strong a position would he be in? on: February 20, 2017, 11:20:59 am
Another fun question: Would Biden be the frontrunner if he were five years younger?
121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will be the speakers at the 2017 Conservative Political Action Commitee? on: February 20, 2017, 11:00:41 am
Trump, Bannon, Priebus, and Santorum all added to the list of speakers:

http://cpac.conservative.org/speakers/
122  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Take ten years off Bernie's age; how strong a position would he be in? on: February 20, 2017, 10:26:02 am
Bernie Sanders knows it's too early to be discussing or even thinking about 2020.

Yeah, right.  Tongue

Trust me, these guys are already thinking about 2020.  Not just Sanders, but Warren, Booker, Gillibrand....all of them.  Not that I blame them, but "It's too early to think about that" is a convenient lie that they all tell in order to not appear too eager to move on from their current jobs.  This is especially necessary for those who are up in 2018, and have to go through the fiction of being interested in serving another complete term rather than move on to a presidential campaign a few months after being reelected.
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Who will win the Democratic leadership debate tonight? on: February 20, 2017, 09:44:21 am
This topic has been moved to U.S. General Discussion.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259279.0
124  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: February 20, 2017, 09:40:22 am
SurveyMonkey national poll, conducted Feb. 13-17:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83Vpfes67zfUGtRQ1pxWTdKS0E/view

Trump job approval (adults):
approve 45%
disapprove 53%

Trump job approval (RVs):
approve 47%
disapprove 53%

approval margin among…
men: +6
women: -20
white: +7
black: -53
Hispanic: -28
white / no college: +18
white / college degree: -16
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Take ten years off Bernie's age; how strong a position would he be in? on: February 20, 2017, 09:19:09 am
He would easily be the frontrunner for the nomination if he were even five years younger.  But 79 (his age on Election Day 2020) is really pushing it, so that downgrades the chances of him running from what they would be for a younger version of him.
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