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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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101  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XXII: Cleaning Up the Meat at [redacted]. on: March 21, 2015, 09:48:18 pm
Anyway, I am home from Walmart.  I got the stuff I needed to get.  There's no need to go over the receipt on the forum, but I got the stuff I needed and I got a few more healthy items.  Now, I can sit back, watch basketball, relax, and get ready for Day 3 tomorrow and Week 2 starting Monday.

So what was for dinner tonight?  And what do you have planned for dinner tomorrow?
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: March 21, 2015, 09:42:38 pm
Everybody has been visiting Iowa, New Hampshire, and now Nevada.  Have there been any publicized visits to South Carolina or have they already conceded it to Lindsey Graham?

Plenty of SC visits from both parties have been discussed in this thread just in the past two weeks:

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/03/is-joe-biden-running-for-president/387115/

Quote
Biden made stops in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina last month.



http://www.thestate.com/2015/03/10/4037232/donald-trump-builds-sc-staff-for.html

Quote
Trump, who has visited South Carolina twice since January, has plans to return several times through June, Lewandowski said. Those plans include trips to Charleston for a nonprofit event later this month, Columbia for the S.C. Republican Convention in May and Greenville for the S.C. Freedom Forum in May.


Webb announces early primary state visits:

http://gantdaily.com/2015/03/12/jim-webb-lines-up-primary-state-visits/

March 18-19: South Carolina
April 10: Iowa
May 25: South Carolina
early June: New Hampshire




103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: March 21, 2015, 09:13:29 pm
Upcoming Nevada visits:

http://www.reviewjournal.com/politics/elections/presidential-campaign-machinery-comes-hot-and-early-nevada?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Huckabee is in Nevada today.  Paul visits on April 11.  Bush visits on May 13.

Cruz, Pence, and Perry are all visiting on April 23-25, for the American Jewish Coalition at The Venetian (owned by Adelson).

Paul, Rubio, and others have been hiring staffers in the state.
104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: March 21, 2015, 09:00:22 pm
^^^
What makes you think that? If the Republican primary is even half as contested as we think it will be, it ought to be going into at least May.

I don't think so.  If the primaries started today, Bush and Walker would win every contest, because they're basically ahead everywhere except for other candidates' home states.  One of the two would most likely do well enough on Super Tuesday to become the de facto nominee.

Primary races that remain truly undecided after Super Tuesday are pretty rare these days.  The 2008 GOP race seemed to be very wide open, but McCain effectively clinched it on Super Tuesday.  2012 as well, Romney basically had it won on Super Tuesday (if not before), even though Santorum ended up winning three more states after Super Tuesday.  The only suspense at that point was whether Gingrich and Santorum might be able to pull off the very unlikely prospect of a brokered convention.

There are other recent examples as well.  Contests that look wide open, but then lead to one or two candidates consolidating everything once the voting starts.  This one doesn't even look all *that* wide open compared to other recent contests, since Bush and Walker are ahead everywhere.
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Primary Calendar on: March 21, 2015, 08:45:07 pm
What is the latest likely calendar for the primaries?  Since Florida has moved their primary back to March 15, what does that do for everyone else.  Is Iowa still in January or has it moved into February?

Here is where things stand tentatively, as of now:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/p/2016-presidential-primary-calendar.html

However, Colorado law allows the parties to pick either the first Tuesday of February or the first Tuesday of March, and everyone expects them to pick the latter date, to avoid penalties.  Likewise, everyone expects that New York will move later to avoid penalties.  If that happens, then NH could move in to Feb. 2, and Iowa to Jan. 25.

We still don't know what North Carolina is going to do.  On the Republican side, any state other than IA/NH/NV/SC that votes before March 1 loses all but 12 of their delegates, which in NC's case would mean an 80%+ hit.  You would think that that would motivate the Republicans in the NC legislature to move the primary later, but at least some of them don't seem to care.
106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz to give "important speech" on Monday, which might be launch of candidacy on: March 21, 2015, 08:12:13 pm
http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2015/03/will-ted-cruz-announce-presidential-bid-monday-at-liberty-u.html/

Quote
Campaign aides continued urging reporters to attend, calling it an “important” speech. But they still declined either to shoot down or confirm speculation that Cruz will use the appearance to announce a presidential exploratory committee, or even to formally launch his 2016 campaign.
107  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: March 21, 2015, 08:00:58 pm

That stories about Walker, not Bush.  I think you meant to link to this one:

link

In any case, Florida has now moved it's primary to March 15th, which is two weeks after Super Tuesday, so chances are good that the race will already be decided by then anyway.
108  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which continents have you been to? on: March 21, 2015, 03:59:58 pm
North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia.  I've come close to South America in that I've been to Puerto Rico, but I guess that doesn't count.
109  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Too Many Cooks on: March 21, 2015, 03:57:23 pm
This is too long for a parody video though.

It's the same length as the original "Too Many Cooks" video.
110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Carson flubs foreign policy discussion in Hugh Hewitt interview on: March 21, 2015, 05:31:05 am
Carson's latest foreign policy epiphany involves a suggestion that the West Bank should be purged of Palestinians, so they can relocate to Egypt and set up a state there:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-03-20/ben-carson-arm-ukraine-expand-nato-rethink-russia-s-position-on-un-security-council

Quote
"We need to look at fresh ideas," said Carson. "I don't have any problem with the Palestinians having a state, but does it need to be within the confines of Israeli territory? Is that necessary, or can you sort of slip that area down into Egypt? Right below Israel, they have some amount of territory, and it can be adjacent. They can benefit from the many agricultural advances that were made by Israel, because if you fly over that area, you can easily see the demarcation between Egypt and Israel, in terms of one being desert and one being verdant. Technology could transform that area. So why does it need to be in an area where there's going to be temptation for Hamas to continue firing missiles at relatively close range to Israel?"
111  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What are your Romantic Inclinations? on: March 21, 2015, 12:26:59 am
Is heteroromantic a real word?  Because I think it's pretty cool that the English language includes a word with the sequence "roro".  It's like the dictionary is trolling both Astro from the Jetsons and Team America's Kim Jong-il.
112  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Marry/Sexy time/Kill the above poster on: March 21, 2015, 12:23:09 am
Am I allowed to just do one out of the three?  If so, in this hypothetical, will I be prosecuted for the murder?


Depending on the order, you could be prosecuted for murder, necrophilia, and marriage fraud.

Awesome!
113  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XXII: Cleaning Up the Meat at [redacted]. on: March 20, 2015, 11:41:31 pm
So, my finalized schedule for Week 2 - the final full week of March and the final full week before the Owasso Grand Opening - looks like this:

Sunday, March 22, 2015 - 10:00 am - 3:00 pm - Training in Tulsa
Monday, March 23, 2015 - 9:00 am - 12:00 pm - Meat Orientation in Owasso
Thursday, March 26, 2015 - 5:00 am - 1:30 pm - Training in Bixby
Saturday, March 28, 2015 - 9:00 am - 1:00 pm - All Staff Meeting in Owasso
Sunday, March 29, 2015 - 5:00 am - 1:30 pm - Training in Bixby

"Getting orientated with the meat"

It's a meat and greet.
114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: March 20, 2015, 10:26:47 pm
While Gore is visiting Iowa in May, top aides say he's not running:

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/al-gore-allies-hes-not-running-2016
115  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XXII: Cleaning Up the Meat at [redacted]. on: March 20, 2015, 09:59:44 pm
Bushie, how much $ do you (or your grandmother or whoever) still send to the Kenyan kids?  Also, how old are they now?  Are they on their own once they hit 18?
116  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Marry/Sexy time/Kill the above poster on: March 20, 2015, 09:48:36 pm
Am I allowed to just do one out of the three?  If so, in this hypothetical, will I be prosecuted for the murder?
117  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Sanders be a Spoiler Anywhere? on: March 20, 2015, 09:44:43 pm
He already said he's not running as a third party if he runs.

No he hasn't.  However, he has said that if he were to run as an Independent, that he wouldn't serve as a "spoiler", which I guess means that he would avoid swing states, or something like that.

118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Based on his website re-design, I think Bernie Sanders is in. on: March 20, 2015, 09:42:34 pm
Sanders, 73, is considering running for the Democratic nomination for President, not as a third-party hopeful.

http://www.unionleader.com/article/20150317/NEWS0605/150319198#sthash.w5FC69VI.dpuf

Great news! Sorry to the True Leftists who hoped he'd help install President Walker though.

I don't think it's news.  It sounds like they're just repeating speculation, since everyone expects that he would run as a Democrat.  But they don't quote Sanders directly.  Sanders himself has never given any kind of firm commitment on whether he would run as a Democrat or an Indy.  Publicly, at least, he says he's open to both.

He stated in the article that there shouldn't be an uncontested primary, which obviously is an implication he'd be running as a Dem. He's also been visiting IA/NH, would be pointless if he was running as an indie.

I know, and that's why everyone assumes that he's running for the Dem. nomination.  I expect that he'll run for the Dem. nomination.  I'm just pointing out that, whenever he's asked on the record whether he'd run as a Democrat or an Independent, he always says that he's undecided, and could go either way.  All of his actions to date suggest that he's running as a Dem., but just wanted to clarify that his "official" position is that he's undecided on that.
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Too Many Cooks on: March 20, 2015, 08:17:00 pm
Someone should make a Smarf vs. Demon Sheep electoral map.
120  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: March 20, 2015, 08:15:14 pm
As noted in this thread:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=209247.0

Cruz is giving what he bills as "an important speech" on Monday, which might be used to announce a presidential run (or at least an exploratory committee).

While Sanders had previously promised a March decision on whether to run, in this interview, he pushes that back to April:

http://www.unionleader.com/article/20150317/NEWS0605/150319198

Trump, in a visit to NH, says he'll decide on whether to run for president by June:

http://www.unionleader.com/article/20150319/NEWS0605/150318876/1066/NEWS0605

And finally, Clinton has delivered her final paid speech, and so is now free to announce her candidacy at any time:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/03/hillary-clinton-atlantic-city-speech-116236.html?hp=b2_c2
121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Based on his website re-design, I think Bernie Sanders is in. on: March 20, 2015, 08:07:04 pm
Sanders, 73, is considering running for the Democratic nomination for President, not as a third-party hopeful.

http://www.unionleader.com/article/20150317/NEWS0605/150319198#sthash.w5FC69VI.dpuf

Great news! Sorry to the True Leftists who hoped he'd help install President Walker though.

I don't think it's news.  It sounds like they're just repeating speculation, since everyone expects that he would run as a Democrat.  But they don't quote Sanders directly.  Sanders himself has never given any kind of firm commitment on whether he would run as a Democrat or an Indy.  Publicly, at least, he says he's open to both.
122  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Too Many Cooks on: March 20, 2015, 08:03:55 pm
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/20/cnn-too-many-cooks-election-2016-parody-video_n_6911540.html?ncid=tweetlnkushpmg00000067

Quote
In a conversation with The Huffington Post on Friday, Chris Moody, a senior digital correspondent at CNN and the video's creative director, said the parody was the brainchild of Eric Weisbrod, a digital producer, who thought it'd be an interesting way to incorporate the absurd number of players in a presidential election into one video.

Indeed, nearly every conceivable candidate makes an appearance, in addition to strategists, Super PAC donors and political players of every other stripe.

"All of the b-roll from cheesy political ads ... are almost taken right out of '90s sitcoms," Moody said. "If you look at old ads, it's families smiling at each other and smiling at the camera. It just fit so nicely."
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Cruz announces he's running for president on: March 20, 2015, 07:55:38 pm
http://www.ibtimes.com/ted-cruz-2016-announcement-possible-presidential-candidate-make-important-speech-1854536

Quote
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is planning to deliver what is being called an “important speech” Monday at Liberty University in Virginia, fueling speculation that he may use the address to announce a presidential run. Cruz’s staff has been encouraging media to cover the event, telling the Daily Beast, “You’re going to want to be there.”

Cruz has been mum on exactly what he’ll talk about at Liberty in Lynchburg, Virginia, but Roll Call noted that the timing of the speech “would be right for getting somewhat ahead of the curve on announcing a White House run, at least among senators.” The Daily Beast also pointed out that Cruz previously indicated he would announce a run for president around this time.

UPDATE: Cruz made the announcement over Twitter:

https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/579857596191899648
124  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Too Many Cooks on: March 20, 2015, 07:44:06 pm
This video will eat your soul:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6AlQiWatD4




125  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Jim Gilmore on: March 20, 2015, 07:34:49 pm
is he a candidate for president?

He's visited NH several times, and says he's thinking about running:

http://www.unionleader.com/article/20150219/NEWS06/150219004

Quote
In the interview, Gilmore said he is continuing to give a possible White House run serious consideration. To that end, he aims to drive debate on national issues, and that includes having his message heard in the first-in-the-nation primary state.
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