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July 27, 2016, 04:10:38 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: WaPo: Kaine and Vilsack are the frontrunners on: July 19, 2016, 07:42:44 pm
This story says that Clinton is likely to announce her pick on Saturday in Miami, not Friday in Orlando as previously thought:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/20/us/politics/hillary-clinton-vice-president.html?_r=0

Quote
She is widely expected to present her choice at a rally in Miami on Saturday, according to people involved with the planning who discussed private conversations on the condition of anonymity.
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 19, 2016, 07:41:22 pm
At least one South Dakota delegate isn't happy:

https://twitter.com/BradThor/status/755549049923727361?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: July 19, 2016, 07:14:45 pm
Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio have so fan not shared their voter profile databases from their '16 campaigns with the RNC, even though they are supposed to do so, according to data sharing agreements with the RNC:

http://www.bendbulletin.com/nation/4511817-151/delays-in-transferring-data-to-trump

Speculation is 1) they don't want to help Trump, and 2) all three of them might run again in 2020, and would like to keep exclusive access to this info.
104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: Castro said to have violated the Hatch Act on: July 19, 2016, 07:07:33 pm
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/two-names-emerge-from-clintons-vp-deliberations-kaine-and-vilsack/2016/07/19/62189146-4d2d-11e6-aa14-e0c1087f7583_story.html

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Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack and Sen. Timothy M. Kaine of Virginia have emerged as the leading candidates among a longer list of finalists Hillary Clinton is considering to be her vice-presidential running mate, according to interviews with multiple Democrats with knowledge of her deliberations.

Although her list is not limited to those two, Clinton has spoken highly of both in recent days to friends and advisers as she closes in on an announcement that could come as soon as Friday.
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Clinton is expected to campaign alongside her running mate on Friday or Saturday in Florida, three Democrats familiar with aspects of the plan said. The campaign has announced only that she will make stops in several Florida cities over those two days, in the run-up to her party’s national convention. The convention, where Clinton will formally claim the nomination as the first woman to head a major-party ticket, begins Monday in Philadelphia.
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Two Democrats described Perez as a solid third choice, but others cautioned that he may not be in the same category as Vilsack and Kaine. Several Democrats emphasized that the fact that Kaine and Vilsack are the leading contenders does not preclude the likely reality that Clinton is still weighing her choices from a larger list of contenders.

The story also indicates that Clinton has asked Obama to give her any advice he might have on picking the folks in his Cabinet (i.e., Perez and Vilsack….and presumably Castro).
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NBC/WSJ nat. poll:D: Clinton 54% Someone Else 45%; R: Someone Else 60% Trump 38% on: July 19, 2016, 11:16:49 am
It's odd that Trump is so low. If there really is so much dissatisfaction with Trump, he wouldn't have been getting 70+ in primaries after his opponents dropped out.

What kind of turnout are you actually getting in those late primaries, post-Cruz/Kasich dropout though?  I would imagine that there would be plenty of people who would have preferred a different nominee who nonetheless aren't going to bother to protest vote after the nomination has already been decided.  For that matter, you could have voters who would have preferred another candidate yet still vote for him once the nomination is decided because "he's better than Clinton", and they want to rally around the flag.
106  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Does JCL have the lowest self awareness of any Forum member? on: July 19, 2016, 11:10:55 am
He just keeps making terrible prediction after terrible prediction and never seems to learn a thing from it.

I can't think of any other posters for whom the above description seems apt....

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=1387
107  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: Castro said to have violated the Hatch Act on: July 19, 2016, 09:34:42 am
Where is this Vilsack buzz coming from?

It's coming from the same place the buzz for the other possible veep choices is coming from: People in and around the Clinton campaign, leaking things to the press.
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: Castro said to have violated the Hatch Act on: July 19, 2016, 08:50:20 am
Vilsack for VP has a Twitter account called "Feel The Sack":

https://twitter.com/FeelTheSack
109  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas forum leaderboard on: July 19, 2016, 07:14:13 am
Antonio surpasses jfern for 11th place:

1) BRTD 77,202
2) Al 60,371
3) Lewis 58,706
4) Keystone Phil 52,857
5) opebo 47,159
6) Kalwejt 43,223
7) Eraserhead 41,734
8 ) Tender Branson 39,821
9) Lief 39,674
10) Xahar 39,221

11) Antonio 38,670
12) jfern 38,669

Antonio’s made 666 posts in the past ~four weeks since he’s returned from his most recent break.  Since Xahar barely posts at all anymore, that puts Antonio on track to crack the top 10 within the next month…if he keeps up his current pace.
110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: Castro said to have violated the Hatch Act on: July 19, 2016, 05:28:28 am
Politico’s sources of “multiple people who are in regular contact with [Clinton’s] inner circle” are focusing on Kaine, Perez, and now Vilsack as the current leading contenders:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/vilsack-stock-rises-as-clinton-nears-vp-pick-225789

Quote
Fast approaching her final decision on a running mate, Hillary Clinton appears to be looking closely at Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine and Labor Secretary Tom Perez, say multiple people who are in regular contact with her inner circle.

But it’s another member of President Barack Obama’s cabinet whose stock has been steadily and notably rising in recent days, vaulting him into what close Clinton friends call the “top tier:" Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack.

The subject of increasing speculation within Clinton’s political orbit over the last two weeks, the former Iowa governor was also the talk of Democrats at the National Governors Association meeting in Des Moines over the weekend, said people familiar with the proceedings — especially after Donald Trump introduced another Midwestern state executive, Indiana’s Mike Pence, as his own running mate.

While Kaine, a former governor himself, was still widely regarded as the front-runner for the job by those in attendance, a handful of Vilsack’s fellow current and former Midwestern governors advocated for him behind closed doors during the proceedings, and the secretary himself suggested in conversations there that he was under serious consideration, according to individuals familiar with the discussions.
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: July 19, 2016, 05:20:24 am
Of course, one has to ask...if Walker is seriously ruling out another run for prez in 2020, then why on Earth is he bothering to meet with the Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina delegations in Cleveland this week?  Meeting with all three sounds like a solid signal of continued presidential ambition, no?

Or maybe he's already planning his presidential campaign for 2024?  Tongue
112  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: Castro said to have violated the Hatch Act on: July 19, 2016, 05:09:42 am
If you guys haven't yet investigated the URLs for various Clinton running mates, you're missing out:

http://www.clintonbiden.com
http://www.clintonbooker.com
http://www.clintonkaine.com
113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 19, 2016, 05:02:55 am
So, Mr. Morden:

When does this roll-call thing happen today ?

You said the session "begins" at 5:30pm (I guess this is 23:30 here).

So, the roll call will likely be after midnight ?

I don't know exactly how it will work.  C-Span's schedule:

http://www.c-span.org/convention/?party=rnc&day=1468911600

has a list of speakers beginning at 5:30pm.  While the official website:

http://convention.gop/post/147558746375/2016-gop-convention-program-announced

says for Tuesday "The speakers below are part of the prime-time program, which will follow Tuesday’s Nomination Process."

So maybe the convention actually starts in the early afternoon again on Tuesday, and then the speakers begin at 5:30?  That's my best guess.  Or maybe the roll call itself is at 5:30?  Either way, it sounds like the official nomination is supposed to happen before the speakers go in the evening.
114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / NBC/WSJ nat. poll:D: Clinton 54% Someone Else 45%; R: Someone Else 60% Trump 38% on: July 19, 2016, 04:56:01 am
NBC/WSJ national poll, conducted July 9-13:

https://www.scribd.com/document/318518107/NBC-News-Wall-Street-Journal-July-National-Poll

“Are you satisfied that Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, or would you have preferred that the Democratic Party nominated someone else?” (asked of Dems and Dem-leaning Indies)

Clinton 54%
Someone Else 45%

“Are you satisfied that Donald Trump is the Republican nominee, or would you have preferred that the Republican Party nominated someone else?” (asked of Republicans and Republican-leaning Indies)

Someone else 60%
Trump 38%
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would Sanders be doing against Trump right now? on: July 19, 2016, 03:42:09 am
Would be interesting to see how much media attention Gary Johnson would be getting in a world where Sanders is the nominee.  I mean, between the Dems nominating a self-described socialist and the GOP nomination a Trump, surely a good number of pundits would say that Johnson is no more unserious an option for president than what the major parties have put up.
116  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Is the Republican Party a White Nationalist Party now? on: July 19, 2016, 01:15:50 am
This topic has been moved to Political Debate.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=241111.0
117  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Thoughts on Kasich not attending the GOP convention... on: July 18, 2016, 08:31:15 pm
I am disappointed in him as he went back on his pledge. I formerly supported him but not anymore. I now have coalesced around Trump.

Trump himself said back in March that the pledge no longer applies:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/29/politics/donald-trump-ted-cruz-nominee-pledge/
118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: Castro said to have violated the Hatch Act on: July 18, 2016, 08:24:44 pm
Clinton will be in Orlando on Friday, followed by a rally in Tampa later in the day:

http://orlando-politics.com/2016/07/18/hillary-clinton-in-orlando-on-friday-during-vp-pick-window/

My guess would be that she might announce her VP choice in Orlando, but we’ll see.

Interestingly, as that story points out, Elizabeth Warren is scheduled to speak before the National Conference of La Raza in Orlando on Saturday, one day after Clinton is likely to announce her VP pick in the same city.
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: Politico: Clinton to announce her pick on Friday in FL on: July 18, 2016, 05:50:41 pm
Castro's a lawbreaker:  Tongue

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-07-18/hud-s-castro-found-in-violation-of-law-against-campaign-activity

Quote
Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro, said to be a contender for Hillary Clinton’s running mate, was found by the U.S. Office of Special Counsel to have violated a law prohibiting federal employees from engaging in political activity while working in their official capacity.

Castro committed the violation of what’s known as the Hatch Act during a Yahoo News interview with Katie Couric, during which he praised Clinton’s experience and said he believed Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump was unfit for office, the OSC said on Monday.

While Castro preceded his comments with the disclaimer that “taking off my HUD hat for a second and just speaking individually,” the interview was taped at his department’s television studio and bracketed by a discussion of official departmental policies.

Sounds like no action will be taken against him for this though.  Sebelius did the same several years ago, and nothing happened to her.
120  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: July 18, 2016, 09:36:15 am
I don't know why everyone assumes Ryan's running, considering that after 4 years of Hillary he's not gonna be in the best political shape. Plus he turned down 2 Senate runs & a POTUS run already.

I'm not *assuming* he's running, but I'd say there's a decent chance of it happening.  The way he talked about it here:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=233345.msg5121895#msg5121895

about the "phase of life" he was in, seemed like he very clearly wanted to indicate that a presidential run at some point in the future is something he's still thinking about.
121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: July 18, 2016, 09:14:11 am

Interesting.  I guess that clears the way for Paul Ryan to get all the cheesehead donors.
122  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Gallup: Pence gets mediocre initial ratings as VP pick on: July 18, 2016, 09:02:33 am
Looks like he has lower name recognition at the time he was chosen than any other VP pick of the last 25 years...except Palin.

Since he isn't known very well yet, I wouldn't read much into these results at this point.  Questions like "How would you rate Donald Trump's choice for vice president?" are going to be taken as proxy questions for "Do you like Donald Trump?"...at least until voters see more of Pence.
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: Politico: Clinton to announce her pick on Friday in FL on: July 18, 2016, 07:55:45 am
It's not necessarily that hard to announce it via text message before it leaks to the press.  All you have to do is send out the text message immediately after you've offered it to the guy and he's accepted.  Obama could have done that in '08 if he'd wanted to.  He could have ordered the text message notification go out after he got off the phone with Biden.  It would have gone out some time that Friday evening.  But instead they waited on the text message until something like 6 in the morning, many hours after the news had been leaked to the media.

McCain could have done the same with Palin.  In that case, the news didn't leak out until Palin was actually physically there in Dayton, backstage with McCain.  He could have announced it the day before via text message if he'd wanted to.

So maybe that is what the Clinton people are saying about this time: No need to track flights and that sort of thing, because we'll tell you right away.
124  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 18, 2016, 02:13:09 am
One last note on the programming:

https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/754859424125218822

Quote
Trump had to be told repeatedly why Don King shouldn't speak at the RNC:
http://nyti.ms/2a98hQJ 


125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: pre-GOP convention discussion LATEST: Partial speaker list & seating chart on: July 18, 2016, 02:05:27 am
Locking this thread now.  Please continue discussion in the live commentary thread:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=241015.0
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