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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: November 17, 2014, 07:58:47 pm
OK, I just looked it up.  According to this:

http://www.celebritynetworth.com/richest-businessmen/ceos/carly-fiorina-net-worth/

her net worth is $80 million.  So not really enough to fund a serious nationwide presidential primary campaign unless she wants to bankrupt herself.  I doubt she's eager to blow half her fortune on a longshot presidential campaign.  So if she runs, she could kick in a little money for her campaign, but the majority of the $ would presumably come from fundraising.

Romney's net worth is $250 million, and he still raised the majority of his campaign $ for both primary campaigns the old fashioned way.
102  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: November 17, 2014, 07:50:54 pm
She just fried up some hamburger patties.  I had Braum's at lunch, but came home and she was about finished with the hamburger patties.

Did you clean up afterwards?  If your 114 year old grandma is providing you with a home and making dinner for you every night, you should at least do the dishes.
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: November 17, 2014, 07:46:57 pm
She doesn't have the same grassroots support as someone like Ben Carson, so I think her campaign would be pretty irrelevant.

It's only November 2014, and hardly anyone knows who she is yet.  The question isn't how much grassroots support she has now, but how much we think she'll have one year from now, should she run.

If she were to run, the fact that she'd be the only woman in the field (in a race that would likely be for the right to face off against another woman in the general election) would surely be enough to generate a good deal of media attention.  But yeah, is she a good enough politician to capitalize on that media attention?  Probably not.  But honestly, who knows?

One question: How big is her fortune?  Would she self-fund if she runs?
104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: November 17, 2014, 06:55:22 pm
Carly Fiorina says publicly for the first time that she's thinking about running in 2016:

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/pause-reflect-ex-hp-ceo-carly-fiorina-mulling-presidential-run-n249621

Quote
Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina said Sunday morning that she is pondering a run for the presidency in 2016.

“When people keep asking you over and over again, you have to pause and reflect. So I’ll pause and reflect at the right time,” Fiorina told NBC’s Chuck Todd.

As previously noted in this thread, she made various trips to the early primary states in the lead up to the midterms, which raised some eyebrows, but I think this is her first admission that a presidential run is something she's thinking about.

Demon Sheep 2016!  Tongue
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: November 17, 2014, 06:49:49 pm

To be clear, what he says is this:

Quote
“Four years ago, we ended up announcing in June of 2011. If past is a portent of the future, that’s probably a ballpark,” he said in a phone interview.

Except, the "real" beginning of the campaign is when you set up your exploratory committee, and Santorum did that in April 2011.
106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: November 17, 2014, 05:24:54 pm
Walker, on whether he might run for prez:

http://fox6now.com/2014/11/16/a-one-on-one-interview-governor-walker-talks-about-his-bald-spot-his-family-and-2016/

Quote
"The closer you get to something like that the more you realize — and I say this only half jokingly — that you have to be crazy to want to be president. And anyone who has seen pictures of this president or any of the former presidents can see the before and after. No matter how fit, no matter how young they are, they age pretty rapidly when you look at their hair any everything else involved with it. Whether it’s two years, six years or 20 years from now — because I think of Hillary Clinton. I could run 20 years from now and still be about the same age as the former Secretary of State is right now. The only thing I think someone is sane should want to be president, or should run for president not because they want to be or yearn to be, but because they feel called to. Right now, I still feel called to be the governor of the state of Wisconsin, and I’m going to do the best job I can over the next four years.”
107  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: November 16, 2014, 11:33:01 pm
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/bobby-jindal-2016-election-112938.html

Quote
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said on Sunday he’ll decide in the first half of next year whether he’s running for president in 2016.

Appearing on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” the Republican governor offered more insight to earlier statements that he would make a decision after this month’s midterm elections.

“We are praying about this,” he told host Chuck Todd. “The bottom line is: Let’s restore the American dream for our children and grandchildren.”
108  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: November 16, 2014, 10:45:06 pm
Bushie can be Accidental Edward Snowden.

That didn't take long:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=200654.msg4383695#msg4383695
109  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: November 16, 2014, 09:36:18 pm
This includes not talking about it much and not talking at all about the sensitive information that I'm exposed to.

You're doomed.

I mean….someone who gave up his Social Security number to a stranger on the internet is being trusted with national security secrets?
110  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: November 16, 2014, 06:52:26 pm
Snow!  I guess a hotel stay is in the cards for Bushie tomorrow.
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Republican Candidate Would do best in New Hampshire? on: November 16, 2014, 06:29:54 pm
You mean in the primary or the general election?
112  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: November 16, 2014, 05:37:09 pm
For what it's worth, my mother, when she learned of her niece and nephew and her family were going to spend a year or two in Africa, straightly warned me "Do not follow them to Africa, speaking of my continued desire to move to Kenya, at least not for a while."

Your mother wants to move to Kenya too???


No, but I still want to sometime. She is just saying "Not yet."

Right, but your direct quote of what your mother said was "my continued desire to move to Kenya", rather than "your continued desire to move to Kenya", so I was tweaking you on that.
113  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: November 16, 2014, 05:05:41 pm
For what it's worth, my mother, when she learned of her niece and nephew and her family were going to spend a year or two in Africa, straightly warned me "Do not follow them to Africa, speaking of my continued desire to move to Kenya, at least not for a while."

Your mother wants to move to Kenya too???
114  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: ESA's Philae spacecraft to land on comet tomorrow on: November 15, 2014, 11:25:25 pm
It's landed, but it's stabilising harpoons haven't. There's a bit of a radio blackout now but apparently images received are still being processed. It's the most exciting mission this year. Next year, New Horizons visits Pluto.
When's the next mission to a planet other than Mars?

Juno is scheduled to reach Jupiter in 2016:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juno_(spacecraft)
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton v. Ben Carson on: November 15, 2014, 11:09:41 pm
White Democrat vs. Black Republican: Would the trend map be a reverse 2008 trend map?
116  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: November 15, 2014, 08:54:52 pm
Bushie, please don't love on a 13-year-old boy.

It's too late. I fear the poor 13-year-old boy is being loved by the whole clan as we speak.

i feel bad for this boy.  he is being dragged off to some backwater (even worse than oklahoma) to spread the white man's religion to a people who arent interested.

I feel bad for him because in all likelihood this birthday party isn't going to involve normal 13 year old pursuits like paintball or laser tag but will rather be a bunch of middle-aged people shoveling fried salty foods down their gullets and then playing Skip-Bo.

The only thing that can salvage this party is a good old-fashioned game of Update-opoly.


Strip Update-opoly, for the loving on.

Strip Update-opoly: Everyone plays with their parents' clothes, and then is sent home with a headache after two turns.
117  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Countries you've not been to: Which 5 do you want to visit the most? on: November 15, 2014, 08:50:46 pm
I don't know.  Maybe:

India
South Africa
Peru
Greece
Italy

Of places that I've already been to, I'd be interested in returning to China and Israel, since I was in both countries for work, and didn't really have much time to explore.

Actually, since I've been to the US, UK, France, and China, maybe I should visit Russia so that I can claim to have visited all of the 5 permanent UNSC countries.  Then if I add India, Pakistan, and North Korea, I can have visited all the countries with nukes.
118  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: November 15, 2014, 07:52:02 pm
Bushie, please don't love on a 13-year-old boy.

It's too late. I fear the poor 13-year-old boy is being loved by the whole clan as we speak.

i feel bad for this boy.  he is being dragged off to some backwater (even worse than oklahoma) to spread the white man's religion to a people who arent interested.

I feel bad for him because in all likelihood this birthday party isn't going to involve normal 13 year old pursuits like paintball or laser tag but will rather be a bunch of middle-aged people shoveling fried salty foods down their gullets and then playing Skip-Bo.

The only thing that can salvage this party is a good old-fashioned game of Update-opoly.
119  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Will you commemorate April 29, 2017? on: November 15, 2014, 07:30:10 pm
I don't think I'll be commemorating the 25th anniversary of the Los Angeles riots.

Those riots never would have happened if the police had simply let Mr. O'Toole keep his sneakers.
120  General Discussion / Alternative History / Re: Biden steps down as VP. Who replaces him? on: November 15, 2014, 07:25:28 pm
Joe Biden tells the doctor to shove his diagnosis up his butt. Joe and Barry have a good laugh about the incident back at the White House.

And in a surprise twist ending, it turns out that the doctor was this man:


121  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Caption Competition thread on: November 15, 2014, 06:17:57 pm
Courtesy of Simfan:


122  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: November 15, 2014, 05:16:16 pm
I will come back to my parents' for supper and then will go to a birthday party for a handsome 13-year-old.  It will be one of the last times I get to see him as he and his family are about to spend two years in Cameroon, Africa on a . 

Handsome 13 year olds in Cameroon live on periods?  I hope there's political stability there, as I wouldn't want any question mark warlords to engage in punctuation cleansing.


OK, in seriousness, can you explain what he and his family are doing in Cameroon?  You wrote "he and his family are about to spend two years in Cameroon, Africa on a ."  What's a "."?
123  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: November 15, 2014, 10:13:38 am
I will come back to my parents' for supper and then will go to a birthday party for a handsome 13-year-old.  It will be one of the last times I get to see him as he and his family are about to spend two years in Cameroon, Africa on a . 

Handsome 13 year olds in Cameroon live on periods?  I hope there's political stability there, as I wouldn't want any question mark warlords to engage in punctuation cleansing.
124  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: IL: Ogden & Fry (R): Rauner claims 4-point lead in internal on: November 15, 2014, 07:59:01 am
Hopefully this election illustrates the principle learned in any basic stats class:  don't extrapolate from a limited sample size.

Unfortunately, 90% of the analysis in this forum is like that.

What sample size are you using to extrapolate that 90% figure?
125  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Nate Silver: "PPP is basically just duplicating polling averages". on: November 15, 2014, 07:41:45 am
If you weight a poll for party or race, and those weights are correct, then you can get more accurate than the 2.8%. The herding might not have been on the actual poll results, but how many of each race or party to include.

Except, why would the weighting of all these different pollsters converge closer to the same answer as the election gets closer?  With demographic weighting, shouldn't those demographic weights be the same one month before the election and one day before the election?  There's also the problem that the identity of the other polls you're comparing against changes over time, and from state to state, because in some cases the most recent polls are Fox, Quinnipiac, and SUSA.  In others, they're Des Moines Register, Marist, and Yougov.  Or some other combination.  How do you keep getting close to the recent polling average if the polling you're comparing to consists of pollsters with a different mix of demographic assumptions each time?
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