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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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101  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Atlas After Dark on: July 14, 2017, 11:09:00 pm
For the record despite the talk about "arbitrarily deleting accounts", only two people have ever been permabanned on AAD, one for being a Nazi and the other for death threats.

Wasn't someone banned indefinitely around election time over something trivial, and then only reinstated months later after a bunch of complaints?
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nate Silver/538 - Bernie Sanders is the 2020 Dem front-runner on: July 14, 2017, 02:37:46 pm
I pretty much agree with you on Sanders's chances to run but when I read your (morbid) explanation, it doesn't feel like anything we've seen affect Sanders so far. He seems to eager to be campaigning and indifferent to being older. So then I can't quite figure out why I have his chances so low of running.

I'm not sure what you would expect him to do or say right now that would indicate that he's going to take his age into consideration in deciding whether or not to run.  It's not the sort of thing that a candidate is going to talk about out loud.  And in fact, even talking about it out loud to his aides would be pretty risky, because if it leaks out that he has any reservations about running for president at his age, then that in itself is politically damaging, as it starts a round of health speculation about him.

In assessing the probability of an older candidate deciding to run or not, at *some* point, his age leads you to include a healthy discount into his odds of running, all other things being equal.  E.g., if you have two candidates who are otherwise identical in terms of signalling presidential ambition, but one is 65 (and apparently in good health) and the other is 95 (but also apparently in good health), then I assume that you're going to rate the 65 year old as being much more likely to run, because who wants to run for president at age 95, even if they're a "healthy" 95?

So then, the question is, how old do you go before this "discount" in probability becomes significant?  It's totally subjective, and I can't really argue with anyone on where it should be, because it's just a gut impression.  But I would note that we have plenty of examples of candidates aged in their lower 70s running, including candidates who were strong contenders for the nomination (and in some cases, they won the nomination).  But I think the upper limit (so far) on a candidate who was considered a plausible nominee going into the race is Bob Dole '96, who was 73 years old on the day of the general election.  Sanders '16 doesn't quite count in my mind, because he wasn't being given very good odds of winning the nom. when he started out.  He was considered more of a "message" candidate, who runs to get his issues out there, a la Ron Paul.  And "message" candidates are more likely to keep running for prez when they're older.

But Sanders, were he to run in 2020, would have a strong chance of winning the nomination (and the presidency) going into the race, and he'd know it.  But he'd be even older than Mike Gravel in 2008 and Ron Paul in 2012.  He'd be beating the "Bob Dole record" by more than 5 years.  Which doesn't mean that he's not going to do it, but it does give me pause, even if Sanders himself isn't saying anything to indicate that his age is a factor in his deliberations.
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: July 14, 2017, 12:57:48 pm
Here’s this week’s #2020Vision column:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/14/politics/2020-vision-democratic-tech-catch-up/index.html

As in past weeks, most of the stuff mentioned there has already been mentioned on this board, if not this very thread.  They do mention Biden’s trip to Capitol Hill though:

Quote
Former Vice President Joe Biden — who is keeping active on the political scene — was on Capitol Hill on Tuesday. His main event: Talking medical research policy at a forum hosted by Sens. Mark Warner, D-Virginia, Lamar Alexander, R-Tennessee, Gary Peters, D-Michigan, and Cory Gardner, R-Colorado, that was attended by about 20 senators. Biden also held meetings with senators.

Also mentioned: This weekend is the National Governors Association summer meeting in Rhode Island, so a number of potential 2020 candidates will be in attendance (e.g., Bullock, Hickenlooper, McAuliffe):

https://www.nga.org/cms/SummerMeeting2017

Looks like Cuomo and Kasich are skipping though.
104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Let's say Trump gets primaried... on: July 14, 2017, 12:19:29 pm
I also remain curious as to how many Republican elites will endorse Trump in the primaries next time.  (Again, assuming that he gets a primary challenger who is at least prominent enough to be included in polls.)  Hardly any Congressional Republicans endorsed Trump in the primaries last time.  Next time I would imagine quite a few of them will, though my guess is that there would be quite a few who would remain officially neutral until the nomination is decided.

Here's a question:

What's the over/under on the number of sitting Republican members of Congress who will not only endorse Trump, but do at least one campaign appearance with him during the primary campaign, *before* he has mathematically clinched the nomination?
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Let's say Trump gets primaried... on: July 14, 2017, 11:14:32 am
Trump is obviously heavily favored to win re-nomination against any plausible challenger.  Nonetheless, there's a reasonably high chance that he'll face a challenger who can get something like Buchanan '92 numbers against him, which is not something that ever seemed likely for either Bush in '04 or Obama in '12.
106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: July 14, 2017, 09:12:38 am
Tim Ryan visited both Iowa and South Carolina last month.  Now he’s got an August trip to New Hampshire on his schedule.  Plus, he did an interview with New Hampshire TV station WMUR yesterday:

http://www.wmur.com/article/rising-star-democratic-us-rep-tim-ryan-heading-to-nh-in-august/10304953

Quote
Ryan will deliver his message – and likely draw much national attention – when he arrives in the first-in-the-nation primary state to headline the New Hampshire Young Democrats’ Summer Cookout on Aug. 16 at the Smuttynose Brewery in Hampton.
.
.
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Is Ryan seriously thinking of running for president in 2020?

“Shaping the national debate is on my radar, and using the bullhorn that I have and that got bigger after I ran against leader Pelosi,” Ryan said.
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Indiana, Kentucky West Virginia and Alabama are on his schedule for later this summer and fall.

“I want to go to places where Democrats haven’t gone in a long time,” Ryan said. “And where that lands me in the future, we’ll see.”

The story also notes that (like prospective 2020 candidates Booker, Gillibrand, and Klobuchar) Ryan campaigned in New Hampshire for Clinton ahead of the NH primary last year.
107  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas posters who list party as "Other"... on: July 13, 2017, 02:27:46 pm
And orange is a cool colour (besides, I like being the only prominent O-UK, and there are a gaggle of D-UK, G-UK, S-UK and I-Uk avatars.

I'm moving to California in a few weeks, so maybe I should go with O-CA, just because we already have prominent I-CA avatars.

I don't want to be binary, and be pushed into D or R avatars.  I want to specify my pronouns, so I can trigger BRTD.
108  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Coraxion on: July 13, 2017, 02:05:07 pm
What did he do again?

I'm assuming it's about comments like this:

We just need someone to stay out of Middle Eastern wars, although the military-industrial complex and the Israel/Jewish lobbies will find that unacceptable.

Right, because we Jews love starting wars everywhere! Roll Eyes Go away, antisemite,
Jews tend to support the Zionist entity, including its wars. Oh, and calling us anti-Semites is pointless because we (anti-Zionists) wear that name as a badge of pride these days.
109  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: July 13, 2017, 01:03:13 pm
New story on Kamala Harris's fundraising:

http://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/The-Democrats-newest-fundraising-star-Kamala-11284685.php

Quote
That type of digital reach has helped her blossom as a reliable fundraiser. Without having to hit the road to give stump speeches at fundraisers, Harris has raised $1.6 million online since election day, with an average contribution of $19. She’s dished out $600,000 to 23 of her Senate Democratic colleagues facing re-election, roughly half of whom sit in states that Trump won.
110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nate Silver/538 - Bernie Sanders is the 2020 Dem front-runner on: July 13, 2017, 12:48:59 pm
I agree with Silver if we’re using his definition of “frontrunner”, which is not the same as the definition that I use in everyday conversation.  When I say “frontrunner”, I typically mean favorite, and by that metric, I think Warren is the frontrunner.

But that’s because I think Warren is significantly more likely to run than Sanders is.  If I was certain that Sanders was going to run, then I’d give him the best chance of winning the nomination (probably by a wide margin).  But I think his probability of running is only something like ~25-30% (Predictit currently rates it as 30%, ftr.).  So even if you give him a 50% chance of winning the nomination conditional on him running, that only amounts to an overall winning probability of no more than 15%, which is lower than the equivalent # for Warren, IMHO.

Interestingly though, none of the participants in that 538 chat said there was any other individual likelier to win the nomination than Sanders.  Harry Enten said that he was tied with Biden (and possibly others), but that’s it.  I think in their entire discussion, they seriously underrated the importance of Sanders having to actually decide to jump into the race in the first place.  Their discussion on his age mostly centered around the question of whether it would hurt him electorally or not, but I think the bigger issue is that it would dissuade him from actually deciding to run.  Will a 79 year old man actually want to go through a year and a half of campaigning, and then spend his twilight years with a high pressure job like POTUS, potentially declining before our eyes?  (I’m trying not to sound too morbid here, but I can’t help it.  Tongue )  That is a more pressing question than the question of whether the voters themselves will count his age against him (I'm not sure they will).
111  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas forum leaderboard on: July 13, 2017, 09:31:05 am
Btw, fun fact: Now that Antonio is making almost 400 more posts per month than BRTD is, he's on pace to make it to 100,000 posts before BRTD does (some time in early 2025 or so).  Tongue
112  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas forum leaderboard on: July 13, 2017, 09:24:03 am
Soon I'll be surprassed by Tony.

Only if you take another break.  If you don't take a break, and you both keep posting at your current rate, then he's not going to catch up until next year.
113  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas forum leaderboard on: July 13, 2017, 09:18:06 am
Grumps just passed Xahar for 12th place:

1) BRTD 80,199
2) Al 61,408
3) Lewis 58,547
4) Phil 52,836
5) opebo 47,114
6) Kal 47,026
7) Antonio 46,257
8 ) Tender 43,179
9) Eraserhead 42,230
10) jfern 40,932

11) Lief 40,686
12) Grumps 39,222
13) Xahar 39,221
114  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Registration spikes/generations of posters on: July 13, 2017, 08:06:01 am
There are probably fifty of us who have made at least 12,500 posts in the last two years or so.

I seriously doubt that.

OK, just looked it up.  Both you and Antonio have made over 12,500 posts in the last two years.  Is there anyone else who may have done so that's worth checking?  Even Kal, one of the most prolific posters, hasn't made that many posts in the last two years.
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico: Cuomo wants to run as a reformer with results on: July 12, 2017, 09:36:24 pm
I’m sorry, but I couldn’t resist using the “reformer with results” slogan in the subject line.  (Most of you are probably too young to get the reference.)
I wasn't alive, but it was a slogan for George W. Bush's 2000 presidential campaign, correct?

Yes.  During the 2000 primaries, McCain tended to use the word "reform" a lot, so Bush countered by saying that he was a "reformer with results".  The implication being that as a governor, he could actually get things done, unlike the dysfunctional Congress that McCain was a part of.
116  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump Jr./Russian lawyer meeting: Jr. knew info was part of Russian Gov effort on: July 12, 2017, 09:03:21 pm
Trump-world's new party line seems to be that there's nothing wrong with American political candidates working with foreign governments to tip the outcomes of American elections.

OK, so then why were Tillerson and Haley saying just a few days ago that Trump confronted Putin over election interference and that he wanted "non-interference" in our elections?

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/08/haley-russia-election-meddling-240323
http://www.npr.org/2017/07/07/535832230/tillerson-trump-confronts-putin-over-russian-election-meddling

Quote
Trump and Putin agreed, however, that the issue of election interference was a substantial hindrance in their ability to move the U.S.-Russia relationship forward. The two world leaders also agreed to work on further commitments of noninterference in the affairs of the United States and in the democratic process in the U.S. as well as in other countries.

There is "more work to be done in that regard," Tillerson said.

Is the interference of foreign governments in American elections something that we should regard as a problem or not?
117  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: July 12, 2017, 03:10:07 pm
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/341708-sanders-wont-take-2020-presidential-bid-off-the-table

Quote
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) refused to swear off a 2020 presidential bid in an interview, arguing that it's "much too early" to make a decision.

"I am not taking it off the table, I just have not made any decisions. And I think it's much too early," he said in an interview set to air Thursday morning with SiriusXM Progress' "Make it Plain with Mark Thompson."

"Our job right now is to not only fight against this disastrous healthcare proposal, it is to take on all of [President] Trump’s reactionary proposals ... There's a whole lotta fights that we have to fight. It is just too early to be talking about an election 3 1/2 years from now."
118  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Registration spikes/generations of posters on: July 12, 2017, 02:54:24 pm
The November registration was probably related to the election.

More specifically, Dave temporarily made the forum unviewable for those who weren't logged in (in order to conserve bandwidth), and so hundreds of lurkers decided to register so they could continue to read the forum.
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2020ers voting on Trump Cabinet confirmations megathread on: July 12, 2017, 01:41:29 pm
*bump*

Klobuchar says she'll vote to confirm Wray for FBI director:

https://twitter.com/MariannaNBCNews/status/885198831331291142
120  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Dems: Who is your preferred Democrat in 2020? on: July 12, 2017, 12:25:00 pm
She may be bluffing, but Liz Warren has very adamantly stated that she will not run in 2020.

Not really.  She says I'm not running for president (present tense), which is how many of the candidates answer the question.  Putting her "denial" in the present tense, so that she can run in the future and not be lying.  And she refuses to make any ironclad pledges about serving her full term in the Senate if she's reelected next year:

Even after Susan Page calls her out on the fact that she’s not offering a Shermanesque denial, she doubles down on not giving a Shermanesque denial:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/04/17/elizabeth-warren-fearless-foe-against-charging-donald-trump/100499096/

Quote
Will she promise Bay State voters that she'll serve all six years of a second term? "So that's certainly my plan," she replies.

Not exactly a Shermanesque denial, the interviewer notes.

Warren, famed for frustrating reporters with her discipline for staying on message, declines to go any further the second time around: "It is my plan."

121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: July 12, 2017, 11:44:15 am
Warren is joining a protest march for affordable housing:

http://www.bankerandtradesman.com/2017/07/warren-plans-join-march-trumps-proposal-gut-hud-funding/

Quote
Warren is headlining a protest march against Trump’s proposal to slash $6.2 billion from the Department of Housing and Urban Development, less than two weeks after a dozen mayors signed on to a letter warning that the proposed budget cuts could shut down public housing units.
Warren, who for years has railed against Wall Street and an economic system rigged against the poor and working class, will address low-income tenants and housing activists from across the nation.

“I want to make sure that affordable housing is front and center on our agenda of items to be protected,” Warren said in an interview Tuesday evening. “We can’t just let this one fly below the radar screen.”
122  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Least electable Republicans on: July 12, 2017, 10:24:57 am
All of them. Trump was the right candidate at the right time, captured the national mood far better than any of the bland hollow men served up by the GOP.

Even Kasich?
Yes? Not sure why people think a candidate who couldn't win any state other than his own in the primaries is electable

That's easy: Because many of the same things that make you popular in the primary make you unpopular in the general election, and vice versa.
123  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of MarkD? on: July 12, 2017, 08:25:19 am
Love is the only superpower in the world.

I see what you did there.
124  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico: Cuomo wants to run as a reformer with results on: July 12, 2017, 08:15:43 am
Cuomo's job approval in New York is on the downswing again:

https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2472

approve 46%
disapprove 38%

Meanwhile, Gillibrand is approve 50%, disapprove 23%.

Also, Cuomo doesn't want to talk about Don Jr., saying he doesn't know the facts:

http://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2017/07/11/cuomo-says-2020-talk-is-speculation-hasnt-read-about-donald-trump-jr-113328

Quote
But speaking to reporters, Cuomo continued his aversion to criticizing Trump. Twice on Tuesday, he ducked questions about New York Times reports on Donald Trump Jr.’s meeting last year with a Kremlin-connected lawyer, which was pitched as a chance for the Trump campaign to get information that would undermine Hillary Clinton.

“I don’t know the facts,” Cuomo told reporters in Batavia. “That question really isn’t about feelings, it’s about understanding of the facts, and I just haven’t heard any. I’ve been working.”

“I haven’t seen the emails,” Cuomo said three hours later in Schenectady.
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread on: July 12, 2017, 08:11:44 am
http://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2017/07/11/cuomo-says-2020-talk-is-speculation-hasnt-read-about-donald-trump-jr-113328

Quote
Gov. Andrew Cuomo says any talk of him running for president in 2020 is just speculation.

“You know, that’s what they do in politics. They speculate,” Cuomo told reporters after a speech here. “I’m running for re-election as governor of the state of New York, and that’s what I’m focused on and that’s what I’m doing and that’s what I wake up thinking about. That’s my focus.”
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