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May 22, 2015, 09:47:44 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: May 11, 2015, 03:28:19 am
A week ago, Perry said he'd announce a decision on whether to run "around June 1".  On Saturday, he gave a similar estimate, saying that the announcement would come "within 30 days":

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-05-09/over-barbecue-in-south-carolina-rick-perry-hypes-supreme-court-as-defining-2016-issue
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: May 11, 2015, 12:35:05 am
Trump says he will announce his decision "very soon":

http://dailycaller.com/2015/05/09/trump-im-really-serious-about-2016/
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 2000 Without Nader? on: May 10, 2015, 11:02:06 pm
2000 map with Gore winning Florida and New Hampshire.

Dubya goes into political obscurity, 9/11 never happens.



Al Gore being elected prevents al Queda from attacking NYC?...  Okay...

He reads the intelligence reports and acts appropriately.

And what "appropriate" action by the president would have led to Mohammed Atta getting caught?
104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Chafee: Clintons "have a long history of gray areas on ethics" on: May 10, 2015, 09:52:17 pm
*bump*

Chafee says he has "high ethical standards"….unlike someone else in the race:

http://www.mediaite.com/online/lincoln-chafee-distinguishes-himself-from-hillary-i-have-high-ethical-standards/

Quote
The former Rhode Island governor was on with Bill Maher last night, and the host prodded him during the show about when he’s going to announce already. During the Overtime segment, Maher asked Chafee a viewer question about exactly what would distinguish him from other candidates in the race.

Chafee didn’t mention ethics in regards to anyone else, but Maher read between the lines and pressed him on the Clintons. Chafee invited him to “look at the record” and cited Whitewater, which immediately elicited groans from Maher and Alex Wagner.

Chafee also brought up “travelgate” and the Clinton Foundation, before Maher jumped in to say this is not a “winning issue” for him if he runs. Maher even defended the Clintons a bit, arguing “I just don’t think they’re as shady as the right would like to paint them.”
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DAVE has launched the 2016 poll map on: May 10, 2015, 09:40:15 pm
Tender: Perhaps you should sticky a thread on the polling board, giving instructions about entering polls?  Otherwise, no one is going to remember the thing about averaging Bush/Rubio/Walker.
106  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Petition to Ban Candidate Suggestion Threads in 2016 Board on: May 10, 2015, 08:43:08 pm
At least wait until the Iowa Caucus filing deadlines before we do this...

Caucuses don't have filing deadlines.
107  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DAVE has launched the 2016 poll map on: May 10, 2015, 05:48:07 pm
DAVE is in all caps because it's an acronym?

Doing A Very Excellent job
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Your Republican Contender Power Rankings/Probabilities on: May 10, 2015, 08:39:52 am
Reality check on the huge margin for error with these things….this thread was made just two weeks before the 2008 Iowa caucuses:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=66629.0


That's an interesting read, though McCain's comeback in that primary may be one of the best in history—props to anyone who called it right at that point in time.

Kerry also had an amazing comeback in December 2003 / January 2004.  (Not as amazing as McCain's, but still pretty darn impressive.)  Amazing comebacks can easily happen in the modern presidential primary system.
109  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Recent bans on: May 10, 2015, 08:33:00 am
Solarstorm: 30 day ban for excessive paranoia (or something like that)


WHY HAVE YOU ASSASSINATED HIM?

He's only temporarily dead….he will rise again, like Jesus.


Except 10 times as powerful since he has 30 days to get all Jesusy

Good point.  By that time, he'll be at least as powerful as Jesus Christ Vampire Hunter:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdG61YFHfz8
110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH-Bloomberg/St. Anselm U: Clinton cruises, Republican field chaotic on: May 10, 2015, 08:23:25 am
Poll conducted May 2-6, ftr.
111  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Bob Dole on: May 10, 2015, 05:19:06 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wbvTc8wxnA
112  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Your Republican Contender Power Rankings/Probabilities on: May 10, 2015, 12:41:48 am
Reality check on the huge margin for error with these things….this thread was made just two weeks before the 2008 Iowa caucuses:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=66629.0
113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: May 09, 2015, 07:44:58 pm
The Louisiana legislative session wraps up on June 11th, and Jindal says he won't announce any presidential plans until after that session is over:

http://theadvocate.com/news/12327381-123/gov-bobby-jindal-tells-crowds

Meanwhile, potential rivals Jindal and Santorum are planning to go on a Family Research Council-sponsored trip to Israel from Oct. 27 - Nov. 6:

http://www.bayoubuzz.com/louisiana-news/louisiana-politics/item/875220-heres-your-chance-to-visit-israel-with-gov-jindal-and-david-vitter-and-nolacom

That's actually oddly late in the campaign cycle to be taking more than a week off of the campaign trail to go on a foreign trip.  I hope they don't miss any debates.
114  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Recent bans on: May 09, 2015, 07:39:35 am
Solarstorm: 30 day ban for excessive paranoia (or something like that)


WHY HAVE YOU ASSASSINATED HIM?

He's only temporarily dead….he will rise again, like Jesus.
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: May 08, 2015, 07:47:25 pm
Christie, Graham, Kasich, Rubio, and Walker will all be attending Romney's donors retreat in Utah from June 11-13:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2015/05/07/mitt-romney-convenes-2016-contenders-donors-for-utah-retreat/
116  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: May 08, 2015, 07:45:32 pm
Bush is looking at a mid-June announcement, shortly after an early June trip to Europe:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/jeb-bush-right-to-rise-super-pac-campaign-117753.html?hp=t3_r

Lots of Republican primary voters in Europe.

When governors run for president, traveling overseas is meant to build up foreign policy cred, or something like that.
117  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP announces 12 debates on: May 08, 2015, 07:36:10 pm
Because Florida moved its primary date later, the big pre-Super Tuesday debate is now going to be held in Houston, TX:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2015/05/gops-super-tuesday-debate-moves-to-texas-206842.html?hp=l3_4

Quote
The NBC News/Telemundo Republican primary debate that was previously scheduled to take place in Florida will now take place in Houston, Texas, on Feb. 26, just four days before Super Tuesday, an NBC News spokesperson confirmed Friday.

The debate is the ninth and final GOP primary debate sanctioned by the Republican party, though three additional debates are pending for March and beyond. It will be the last Republican primary debate before Texas and seven other states hold primaries or caucuses on March 1, or what is known as "Super Tuesday."

The spokesperson also confirmed that NBC News and Telemundo would partner with National Review, the conservative magazine edited by Rich Lowry. That means Lowry and some other National Review journalists will likely have a seat at the moderator's table ahead of one of the most significant voting day's in the primary process.
118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: May 08, 2015, 07:19:38 pm
I saw no indication of weighting on partisan identity. Other things -- but not partisan identity. Yes, it is possible to get a statewide prediction for a state that splits nearly 50-50 even if one has a 6-1 edge in polling numbers for one party.

Page 6 of the poll, from the PDF you posted:

Party Registration
144 Democrat 25%
260 Undeclared 45%
170 Republican 30%

Party Identification
249 Democrat 40%
102 Independent 17%
266 Republican 43%

This is different from the 229 Democratic primary voters and 293 Republican primary voters you mentioned, because they're weighting differently for the two primary polling subsamples that they did, whereas the numbers that I just listed above are the general election sample.  Lots of pollsters conduct primary and general election polling in the same poll, and you've never had a problem with it before, so I don't see what the issue is.
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: May 08, 2015, 05:54:44 pm
Quote
These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.  Seven hundred and six (706) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between April 24 and May 3, 2015.  The margin of sampling error is +/-3.7 percent.  Included were two hundred
ninety-three (293) likely 2016 Republican Primary voters (MSE = +/-5.7), two hundred twenty-nine (229) likely 2016 Democratic Primary voters (MSE = +/- 6.5), and six hundred and twenty-seven (627) likely 2016 presidential election voters

It's about the primary election -- not the general election! Hillary Clinton is practically a foregone conclusion in the Democratic primary; the Republicans look to have plenty of choices.

Does anyone think that the New Hampshire general election is going to go 42% Republican, 37% Democratic?

No, you don't understand how polling works.  This is like the third time I've explained this on this board in the past week.  You can't say 229/627 = 37%, so they're making this sample 37% Democratic, because like every pollster they use weighting.  They're sampling an excess number of Democratic voters and an excess number of Republican voters (because they're simultaneously doing a primary polling question, and then weighting them a certain way in the GE matchup questions to match what they consider "likely GE voters".  Half the polls you post here are doing the same thing (though most of them are weighting to registered voters).  Their actual partisan breakdown, when they do weighting, is on page 6 of the writeup:

undeclared 45%
Republican 30%
Democrats 25%

You might also consider that too Republican-heavy, but have you actually been scrutinizing all of the partisan breakdowns for all the other polls you've been posting here, or did you just pick this one to toss out on these grounds, because you don't like the result?
120  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: US-led airstrikes kill 52 Syrian civilians in a day, not 1 ISIS fighter – monito on: May 08, 2015, 12:03:32 pm
(although if we're speculating with perfect hindsight then he would have probably been toppled during the Arab Spring anyway but who knows how that would have turned out)

Assad is still holding on in Syria, so I don't see why Saddam would have "probably" been toppled in the Arab Spring, in the event of no US intervention.

(Though that is a question, how likely is it that there would be no US intervention, years after 2003, by Bush or some other president?  Were we going to enforce the no-fly zones forever, and not really push it much farther than that if there had been some attempted uprising in the 2000s or 2010s?)
121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: May 08, 2015, 11:58:29 am
Before anyone asks me why I am not using the UNH-WMUR poll for New Hampshire -- the sample is R+5. New Hampshire was D+1 in 2014. It might be appropriate for the caucuses; I expect heavy R participation in the caucuses and light D participation in the caucuses. The big one? The general election? That's the one I have my focus on.

You are not using the NH poll because it shows Republicans ahead, that's the only reason.

First Mason-Dixon, now this ...

I may as well lock this thread or delete it if you are not using all polls.

A caucus vote is not relevant to November 2016. The general electorate vote of 2016 will be very different from the primary of caucus vote in any state.

What are you talking about ?

This was a poll of GE voters in NH, not "caucus" voters.

Not to mention, as I said, there is no caucus in NH.  I don't know what pbrower is on about.
122  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: May 08, 2015, 11:36:55 am
It might be appropriate for the caucuses; I expect heavy R participation in the caucuses and light D participation in the caucuses.

I expect zero participation in the caucuses, since New Hampshire doesn't hold caucuses.
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: May 08, 2015, 04:29:09 am
Bush is looking at a mid-June announcement, shortly after an early June trip to Europe:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/jeb-bush-right-to-rise-super-pac-campaign-117753.html?hp=t3_r
124  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: May 08, 2015, 04:23:12 am
Graham is looking at a June 1st announcement:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/lindsey-graham-2016-announcement-117735.html?hp=c3_3

Quote
Lindsey Graham is telling donors that June 1 is the likely date for his presidential announcement, according to several sources familiar with the conversations.

The announcement would likely take place in South Carolina, possibly near his home base of Seneca, according to the sources, which would enable the GOP senator to highlight a compelling personal story not widely known outside his home state.

Graham also says he is "98.6% sure" he will run:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/rosiegray/lindsey-graham-is-sort-of-screwing-up-the-early-south-caroli#.hmE4R2Yep
125  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 08, 2015, 02:46:56 am
Why is Thanet South so slow to declare?  Did they hire a bunch of lazy immigrants to count the votes or something?

I'm having flashbacks to this Twitter hashtag from three years ago:

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23thingsfasterthannvgop&src=typd
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