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May 03, 2016, 03:14:51 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 07:00:58 pm
PA exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/pa/Rep

Trump 58%
Cruz 22.5%
Kasich 17.5%
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 06:39:19 pm

103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 06:26:35 pm

104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 06:25:34 pm

105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 06:22:10 pm







106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 06:18:12 pm
Exit poll discussion on Fox:

http://video.foxnews.com/v/4864634121001/early-look-at-exit-poll-data-from-super-tuesday-iii-states/

Does Clinton have a better shot than Sanders against Trump in a GE?:

MD: 73%
PA: 64%
CT: 63%
107  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 06:15:53 pm
Exit poll discussion on Fox:

http://video.foxnews.com/v/4864634121001/early-look-at-exit-poll-data-from-super-tuesday-iii-states/

Kasich narrowly leads among late deciders in all three states that were polled.

Would not vote for Trump if he’s the nominee:

MD: 26%
CT: 25%
PA: 22%
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 06:07:33 pm
Added the official site for PA delegate results to the OP:

link
109  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 05:47:49 pm



110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 05:44:33 pm
Using algebra from these sets of #s:









it’s pretty clear that the exit poll has Trump averaging over 50% of the vote among the three states being polled.  Why else would the over # be closer to Trump than non-Trump?
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 05:38:39 pm
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/04/26/politics/super-tuesday-exit-polls/

Quote
About one-half of Republican voters in Maryland and Connecticut reported earning $100,000 or more and nearly six in 10 hold a college degree. Among Republicans in those two states, they are more likely to see Wall Street as helping the economy than voters in Pennsylvania.

In Pennsylvania, only about one half of Republican voters reported graduating from college and about three in 10 said they earned $100,000 or more. Pennsylvania Republicans generally feel that Wall Street hurts the U.S. economy and about one-half said that foreign trade costs jobs in the U.S.
112  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 05:36:17 pm

For the record, the 2012 Democratic electorate in the general election was:

MD: 46% White, 39% Black, 9% Latino, 6% Other
CT: 60% White, 19% Black, 11% Latino, 10% Other
PA: 70% White, 25% Black, 5% Other

Going to be a blackbath in MD; much blacker than even the 2012 presidential. CT & PA are substantially whiter and/or less black than the general, though.

Wouldn't you expect a Democratic primary to be blacker than a general election, since blacks go overwhelmingly for the Dems?
113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 05:34:55 pm
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-democratic-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=38655223

Quote
As in previous Democratic primaries this year, we continue to see a much larger liberal turnout than in years past. In preliminary exit poll results, two-thirds of Democratic voters in Pennsylvania say they’re liberals, vs. 49 percent in the 2008 primary there. So do even more – seven in 10 – in Connecticut, vs. 55 percent in 2008. And more than six in 10 are liberals in Maryland, vs. 52 percent in ’08.
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Pennsylvania Democratic voters clearly see Sanders’ possible path to the nomination narrowing: Three-quarters in preliminary exit poll results think Clinton will win the nomination, while just more than two in 10 think Sanders will.

About six in 10 in preliminary exit poll results in Pennsylvania see Clinton as honest and trustworthy, vs. about three-quarters who say so about Sanders, on par with previous contests. It’s been a problem for Clinton, but not a crippling one.
114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 05:30:07 pm

115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 05:24:54 pm
PA GOP exit: If XXX is the nominee...

Trump
Definitely vote for: 56%
Probably vote for: 20
Not vote for: 22

Cruz
Def 25%
Prob 36%
Not 37%

I really doubt that 37% number for Cruz. If it's accurate, it means a lot of Dems in PA would cross over and vote for him in General. Less than 2 weeks ago a Q. poll of PA showed him and Clinton basically tied in PA H2H in November.

But Marist has Clinton beating Trump by 15 points:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=235244.0
116  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 05:22:13 pm
Were you voting for your candidate or against someone else?






117  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 05:11:36 pm

118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 05:07:53 pm
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-republican-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=38654929

Quote
Eclipsing previous contests, nearly six in 10 in these preliminary results said they’d definitely vote for Trump as the GOP nominee in November. About a quarter flatly rule him out – rising to four in 10 Cruz supporters and more than six in 10 among Kasich voters, another sign of the party’s deep divisions. That leaves Trump’s “definitely support” numbers more than twice as high as the number who rule him out, while Kasich is slightly in the positive direction and Cruz winds up on the negative side.
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Many GOP primary voters say Wall Street does more to hurt than help the U.S. economy – nearly half in Pennsylvania, four in 10 in Connecticut and a third in Maryland. Anti-trade voters have been good groups for Trump in previous contests.

About three in 10 voters in the three largest states voting today say they’re primarily looking for someone who “shares my values,” less prevalent than in previous states, and he attribute on which Trump has done very poorly to date. What’s chiefly boosted him are those looking for a candidate who “tells it like it is” or “can bring needed change” – adding well over half of Republican voters in today’s preliminary exit poll results.
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 08:29:06 am
Business Insider talks to the PA delegate candidates:

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/donald-trump-pennsylvania-unbound-delegates-2016-4?r=US&IR=T

Quote
Business Insider spoke with 65 candidates for unbound-delegate slots in the state — roughly 40% of the total ballot. Hayes, who is running in the state’s 10th Congressional District and is the youngest on the ballot, is one of the delegates trying to stop Trump’s rise in the party. He was the only one who outright identified as running on a “Never Trump” platform.

Business Insider found that roughly 18% of the unbound delegates it polled were committed to Trump. About 15% supported Ted Cruz, a Texas senator and Trump’s main rival for the nomination. The remaining 67% were either committed to voting along with their congressional district or the state as a whole, or were entering the process totally uncommitted — although many did admit preferences.
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Trump and Cruz recently released delegate slates for the contest. Both ballots included names of people — six on Trump’s and two on Cruz’s — who told Business Insider earlier this month that they were either voting along with their congressional district or going uncommitted.

John Kasich, the Ohio governor, has not yet released a delegate slate. And none of the 65 delegates Business Insider spoke with said they were committed to supporting him, although some were warm to the Pittsburgh native.
120  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 08:17:02 am
This may have already been answered in the delegate fight thread, but do we know if the Republican delegate candidates have their names listed on the ballot in alphabetical order?  I'd imagine that in a situation like this, where their presidential preferences aren't listed on the ballot and many names will be unfamiliar, whoever is listed first is going to have an advantage.
121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: PA- OpinionSavvy: Clinton ahead by 11, TRUMP by 20 on: April 26, 2016, 07:54:25 am
Philadelphia metro: Trump +22 over Cruz/Kasich
Eastern PA: Trump +27 over Cruz
N. Central PA: Trump +34 over Cruz
S. Central PA: Trump +12 over Cruz
NW PA: Trump +27 over Cruz
Pittsburgh metro: Trump +19 over Cruz
122  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 07:39:42 am
CD's 1 and 14 don't have Trump or Cruz delegates?
CD 2 has a Cruz delegate but no Trump delegates?
CD 7 has Trump delegates but no Cruz delegates?
Or do some delegates have no preference in those districts?

The spreadsheet I linked to answers most of these questions.  3 delegates elected per district, but some of them only have 3 delegate candidates, so it doesn't actually matter who you vote for.  All 3 are getting in.  And some districts have delegate candidates with no preference, or else they say that they'll vote for whichever presidential candidate wins the district.
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 07:37:39 am
From Twitter...people in line in Maryland, waiting for the polls to open (this pic is from 2 hours ago, to the polls are open now):


124  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Charles Koch ready for Hillary? on: April 26, 2016, 07:34:35 am
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/charles-koch-trump-nazi-222372

Quote
Conservative billionaire Charles Koch chastised Donald Trump for his plan to register all Muslims, calling the idea “monstrous.”

“That's reminiscent of Nazi Germany. I mean, that's monstrous, as I said at the time,” Koch said in an interview with ABC News’ Jonathan Karl.

Koch also said Trump’s proposal to temporarily ban all Muslims from entering the United States is “antithetical to our approach.”

Hmmm....so I'm guessing he didn't vote for Trump in the primary?  Tongue
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / NBC/SurveyMonkey nat.:D:Clinton 52% Sanders 42%;R: Trump 50% Cruz 26% Kasich 17% on: April 26, 2016, 07:11:28 am
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-clinton-builds-lead-over-sanders-nationally-n562046
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-trump-reaches-50-percent-support-nationally-first-time-n562061




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