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January 25, 2015, 05:23:14 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: January 17, 2015, 06:31:41 pm
Ann Romney is on board with Mitt 2016:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/17/us/no-no-no-no-becomes-maybe-for-ann-romney.html

Quote
Advisers said the couple realized in recent months that there was a viable, if complicated, path for Mr. Romney to the White House in 2016, and they are enticed by early polls showing him with strong support. Mrs. Romney, herself a competitor who ran for local office in her 20s and has excelled on tennis courts and dressage arenas — believes deeply that her husband owes it to the country to take a serious look at running a third time, the advisers say.
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: January 17, 2015, 08:01:16 am
Fiorina reiterates that she's thinking about it:

http://onpolitics.usatoday.com/2015/01/15/carly-fiorina-presidential-race-serious/

Quote
“Well, I haven’t made that decision yet, but what I can tell you is that I’m very seriously considering running,” she said, according to excerpts of Fiorina’s interview with Neil Cavuto airing Thursday night on Fox Business Network.

Meanwhile, The Hill notes that Bush, Christie, Fiorina, Graham, Huckabee, Paul, Perry, Rubio, and others are all talking to various GOP members of Congress in the hopes of getting endorsements:

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/229792-white-house-hopefuls-scramble-for-endorsements-from-gop-lawmakers

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Jeb Bush is chatting up members of his home state Florida congressional delegation. Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is making personal visits to early primary state lawmakers. And New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is wooing would-be supporters.

Winning endorsements from popular politicians — and their spouses — in places like Iowa, New Hampshire South Carolina and Florida is crucial to getting a leg up on the competition — particularly with a crowded field.

And the prospective GOP contenders aren’t taking any chances.

Rep. Frank Guinta (R-N.H.) recounted how Fiorina dropped by his swearing-in dinner celebration last week at Carmine’s Italian restaurant and talked to him and his wife, Morgan, about her possible run. Guinta has already sat down and spoken with other potential candidates, and Christie will huddle with Guinta and other House Republicans in Washington next week.
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Democracy Corps/WVWVAF: Hillary up 6 vs. Romney, up 12 vs. Bush on: January 17, 2015, 07:53:07 am
Let it put it this way, Clinton may very well put the WVA governor race in play, should Manchin run, but OHIO and CO, are winnable and the bellweathers, WVA will be ignored, at the presidential level.

Do you understand what this thread is about?
104  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: 2015 Academy Awards Discussion on: January 17, 2015, 07:51:56 am
I know you were all waiting for Al Sharpton to weigh in on this:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/sharpton-lack-diversity-oscar-nominations-insulting-article-1.2079759

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The outspoken civil rights activist said Thursday that it was “appallingly insulting in the year of 2015" that the 20 Academy Awards acting nominations went only to white actors and actresses.
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Sharpton, who says he’ll meet next week with allies and colleagues to discuss “potential actions” before or during the nationally televised Feb. 22 award ceremony, was quick to point out the irony of the “Selma” double-snub.

“The only category we’re well represented is in the best picture nomination and it’s a movie about blacks being shut out of society,” he said, noting that the film was nominated for the night’s highest honor. “And now we’re shut out of Hollywood.”

"Potential actions before or during the ceremony"?  Get a grip man.
105  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Adventures of Hobo Orgy Guy and Blondie on: January 17, 2015, 06:29:35 am
The Adventures of Hobo Orgy Guy and Blondie (....in progress)

Episode 38 (2x18) "There Is No Such Thing As Luck"

Winfield's bunker, large storage bay interior

[Many of the moderators are here, milling around nervously, as Mr. Moderate, on the phone with a federal agent, negotiates the moderators' surrender to authorities.]

Mr. Moderate: Very well.....yes, of course we agree.

[Moderate hangs up the phone.]

Master Jedi: How did it go?

Mr. Moderate: Fine.  I mean, as fine as can be expected.  We're fugitives.  We don't have a whole lot of leverage here.

Winfield's robots are nearly all destroyed.  Now, he had some human loyalists in the city, but they've scattered to the wind, after the big firefight last night.  The city is largely pacified, and the military is moving in to take it over, including this fortress.  They should be here within the hour, and we've agreed to hand over command of this facility to them.

Beet's still holding all the prisoners we took yesterday, so we've got that.  We've agreed to turn over all of them to the feds.  We'll stay here and hold Winfield on mod review for the next five days, and then surrender him for trial.  We'll face charges for everything we've done as well, though they may go easy on us.....given that we helped to save this city from nuclear annihilation, and also delivered to them the mastermind of the insurgency.

And of course, we surrender the Atlas too.  With the federal government now able to use the demographic info in the Atlas, the hope is that they'll mop up the Islamic insurgency relatively quickly.  Assuming they can get Dave's help to interpret it.

How is Dave, by the way?

Master Jedi: He should recover.  That Irish Setter gave him some sort of drug that helped bring him back to (nearly) full health, which he claims will revitalize him, and allow him to remain young and live a long, full life.  Unfortunately, Bushie.....I mean....."Hog" was too far gone for that.

Winfield's bunker, infirmary

[In one bed, we see Hog, apparently close to death after his experience with the reactor core.  Blondie and Inks are by his bedside, while Seamus and Twister hang back in the back of the room.  In another bed, ignored by everyone at the moment, is the still-unconscious Bushie (the past version of Hog).]

Inks: (to Hog) I'm sorry Bushie......er, "Hog".  Sorry about how I spoke to you all those years ago on the forum.  I guess I didn't always treat you as well as I should have on Update.

But I was only trying to help you.

Also, regarding my brief tenure as your lawyer all those years ago....sorry that I wasn't able to get you back to the US.  If I had, then maybe you wouldn't be here now, dying.

Hog: (his voice weak) Don't worry about it Inks.  I know you did your best.

(turns to Blondie)  And I'm sorry to you J.J......Blondie.  I should have been a better pet owner all those years ago.

Blondie: Don't worry about it.

Hog: It's funny.  I'm moments away from being accepted into heaven, and all I can think of is my sweet Lupita, who I'll finally see there after all these years.  And our daughter.  I wish I'd had a chance to raise her.  It saddens me somewhat that the family line will end with me, and I'll never know the joy of being a father, but at least I'll get to see my daughter when I reach paradise.

At least....I think I will.  I don't actually know the Bible's stance on the souls of deceased infants who never get a chance to accept Jesus Christ as their savior.

But no one can blame me for my ignorance about that.  Everyone has to agree with the truth that it's not my fault.

[beat, as Blondie and Inks don't know how to respond to that]

Hog: Goodbye.  I know that God has been preparing me for this my whole life, as he knew all the hairs on my head before I was born.  My life was not a shambles, and it did deal me some blows...many of which I inflicted on myself.  But I have no reason to be ashamed.  And I'm glad that, in the end, I was able to prove myself as an Atlas moderator, and that I made a difference.

I did make a difference, and no one is allowed to say otherw--

[Hog's speech sputters to an end, as the life finally drains out of him.  The others in the room look on, stunned.  A tiny tear wells up in Blondie's eye.

But Blondie's gaze then moves over to Bushie's unconscious (but still breathing) body.]

Blondie: (to Seamus) So...Bushie here...he's now fated to go back in time, live several years as a hobo--as "Hog"--and then travel through time with me so that he can die here in this room, at this moment?

Seamus: Yes, he is.  But we'll sort that out soon.

Look, I'm sorry for your loss everyone, but based on the last status report from the moderators, it sounds like US authorities will be here shortly, and I'd prefer to be elsewhere when they arrive.  Blondie, shall we go?  After we get back to the Xerox lab, I can send you back to your own time, if that's what you still want.  I'll just call up Muon, and--

Twister: I'd like to go with you to that lab, if that's all right with you.  The authorities may also have some uncomfortable questions for me, which I'd prefer not to answer right now.

Seamus: I'm sorry, but we're going to the lab by using Muon's "spacetime device", and it tends to cause irreversible memory loss in humans.  It wouldn't be safe for you.

Twister: Yes it would.

Seamus: What?

Twister: Just trust me.  It's perfectly safe for me.

[Seamus stares at him in disbelief.]

Twister: I'll explain everything once we've jumped back to your lab, but we should get out of here quickly.  I'll take the risk.

Seamus: OK then.

[Seamus motions for Blondie and Twister to move over to the bed with Bushie.  He then sends a signal through his phone to Muon, and the four of them disappear in a flash, leaving Inks alone in the room with Hog's corpse.

But Inks is not alone for long.  A young female army private soon enters the room.]

Private: Hello?  Anyone in here?

[She sees Hog's corpse lying on a bed.]

Private: I figured.  (Her tone is disappointed.)  They said he'd be in here, and that he was so close to death that we might not make it in time.

Inks: I'm sorry, but who are you, and what's going on?

Private: This facility has been surrendered to the United States Army.  We're conducting a security sweep, but I had to stop off here myself.

Is it true?  Is that man--I mean, was that man BushOklahoma?  The Oklahoma fugitive who escaped to Kenya about 15 years ago?

[Inks looks back at Hog's body.]

Inks: Yeah, that's him.

Private: Well, I'm sorry that it had to end like this for him.  I know what he did was wrong, and I can't condone anyone breaking the law......but I always appreciated his missionary spirit.  Bringing Oklahoma values to the people of Kenya.

I'm originally Oklahoman myself, and I actually joined up with the army just last year, in the hopes that now-President Naso's Mars project would get off the ground (pardon the pun), and that I'd be able to go there some day.

I've actually learned a lot about Mars from CNN International, and I feel such a strong connection there, that I practically think of myself as an American-Martian.  I sure would love to do missionary work there some day.

Inks: Ummmm......

Private: What is it?

Inks: Eh, never mind.  I'm sure your parents are very proud.

Private: (sheepishly) Actually, I never knew my father.  I'm embarrassed to say that my mother was a hobo, and she conceived me about 20 years ago in an......in an orgy.  Conceived on Indepedence Day if you'd believe it, since they say my father had a fetish for doing it on July 4th.

My father was another hobo, and I never even learned his name.  I'm not proud of it, but God doesn't make mistakes.  He knew every hair on my head even before I was born.

In any case, I did manage to pull myself up by my bootstraps and make into the army, with hard work and determination.

[Inks looks back at Hog's corpse.]

Inks: Well, whoever your father was, and wherever he might be right now......I'm sure he'd be very proud of you.

[The Private also takes a good look at Hog's corpse.]

Private: We'd better do something about that body.  It's starting to remind me of when I leave the fruit out too long.

[Inks lights up at this comment, and begins to interrogate her.]

Inks: Ah, so you leave your fruit out to rot, huh?  How many fruits and vegetables do you eat each day?  How much exercise do you get?  What color is your urine?

Secret underground Xerox lab, interior

[Muon and PiT are present, and Muon has just pressed some buttons on a control panel responsible for activating the spacetime device.  Seamus, Blondie, Twister, and the unconscious Bushie now materialize in front of them.

Muon takes a look at Twister.]

Muon2: And who is this mystery man who insisted on taking a trip courtesy of the spacetime device, despite its effects on human memory?

Twister: I can assure you that my memory's fine, Muon.  But you might be better able to recognize me in my original form.

[Twister shapeshifts into the form of "The Professor", who we saw in Episode 30.

Muon gasps in reaction to the person he sees before him.]

Muon2: No, it can't be true, can it?

The Professor: It is true, Muon.  "Aizen" and "Twister" were always just alter egos--disguises that I invented to suit my agenda.

Seamus: I don't understand Muon.  How do you recognize this man?  Who is he?

The Professor: I suppose I should introduce myself.  I haven't actually shown many people this version of myself for quite a while, since I faked my death way back in the 80s.

I'm Muon's thesis advisor from his PhD work at Brandeis.....Professor Diktor.

[Everyone stares back at him in amazement.]

The Professor: Come on everyone, get your jaws up off the floor.  Staring like an idiot won't help you get girls.


TO BE CONTINUED….
106  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Recent bans on: January 17, 2015, 04:59:59 am
It's obvious the Mod Team is ready to get rid of one of their own again. Update was already withheld - now time for the collateral damage. You all were warned.

In fact, the team now knew that it could create controlled chaos by purposefully withholding Update from the forum, which was seen in its most prominent example in late 2013. The longest Update hiatus to occur since it began (from 10/29/13 to 1/11/14) was part of a coordinated plot to create chaos that would result in….

That wasn't the longest hiatus since it began.  The longest hiatus was between May and November 2011, during which time Update was banned, and Bushie posted his thoughts on a blog.
107  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Does your family know about Libertas? on: January 17, 2015, 03:16:35 am
Bacon King saves the day as always.

Except for the times when he screws up and I have to clean up his mess:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=179360.msg3873055#msg3873055

Tongue
108  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: 2015 Academy Awards Discussion on: January 17, 2015, 02:52:45 am
I really need to see Boyhood. The length is the main reason I have not yet.

I watched it on an airplane flying from Los Angeles to Sydney.  You just need a long plane flight, and you can knock out several long movies.  A few years ago, I watched Gone with the Wind on a flight back from China, and probably never would have bothered with a 4 hour movie like that if I hadn't had several hours to kill and nothing else to do.
109  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP announces 12 debates on: January 17, 2015, 02:28:44 am
Have they released the criteria to be included in the debates?  There are going to be a lot of candidates.  In 2012 11 ran and at least Buddy Roemer, Thad McCotter and I believe Gary Johnson were excluded from all of the debates.

Johnson was actually invited to (and participated in) two of the debates.  The 2008 cycle was another weird one, as I think Alan Keyes was invited to just one debate.

Quote
This time as many as 25 could run.  They obviously can't all get in as there aren't enough staffers with presidential campaign experience to go around, but I'd bet that at least 15 will get in.

I highly doubt it'll be 25, but 15 is possible.  Though don't be surprised if several people who we currently think are near-locks to run end up not running, or else drop out very quickly.  In the 2000 race, Kasich dropped out in the summer of 1999, and then several more did shortly after the Iowa straw poll.  Several candidates could drop out after the straw poll this time as well, even with no Bush 2000-esque frontrunner.  There just isn't enough media oxygen for all these candidates, and so there has to be some winnowing, one way or another.
110  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would Jesus Christ have banned Libertas? on: January 17, 2015, 02:19:45 am
While BRTD claims that krazen is the forum's equivalent of the money changers in the temple, I think this man looks just as much like a money changer:



So Jesus obviously would have punched him in the face.  (Too soon?)
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP announces 12 debates on: January 17, 2015, 02:01:46 am
I thought they wanted less debates (not that I'm complaining)?

This is fewer than last time.  In the 2012 cycle, there were over 20 debates.

Also, the scheduling of the IA/NH/SC debates is going to get messy, since I don't believe those states are going to vote when the RNC would like them to.  Good chance that Iowa and New Hampshire will be voting in January, which means that the New Hampshire debate at least will have to be moved earlier.


The RNC has ensured a february start to the season. It says in their new rules that any january-voting state will have no more than 9 delegates at the convention. 2012 had January contests because FL forced it - but in 2012, FL delegates were only cut in half from 100 to 50, this time it would be from 100 to 9. FL isn't going to repeat it's leapfrogging attempt of 2012. Granted, Iowa could vote in January without penalty because it's a caucus and doesn't actually elect national delegates on caucus night. But without FL trying to leapfrog, iowa has no reason to vote in january.

You're partially right and partially wrong.  And I'm going to go all CARLHAYDEN in this post and number my quibbles with what you wrote "first", "second", "third".  Tongue

First, the RNC has in fact changed the caucus rules so that there will be no more nonbinding caucuses.  The Iowa caucuses will actually have a binding impact on delegate allocation this time.

Second, you're right that they've now instituted the "super penalty", knocking down non-compliant states to 9 delegates.  That means that there *probably* won't be interlopers in February, but you never know.  It certainly won't be Florida this time, but some smaller state might take the plunge and go in February, accepting the penalty that takes them to 9 delegates.  Not all state legislators nor state party officials necessarily care about delegates.  So yeah, unlikely but not impossible that some state other than IA/NH/NV/SC votes before March 1.

Third, even if the other 46 states all vote on March 1 or later, what are IA, NH, NV, and SC going to do?  South Carolina has historically not only insisted on being "first in the South", but has opted to create at least a one week buffer between it and the next Southern state(s) to vote.  2016's Super Tuesday is shaping up to be very Southern-heavy, with the two biggest delegate prizes of the day being Texas and Florida.  South Carolina is most likely not going to be happy voting on Feb. 27.  I see them scheduling their primary for Saturday, Feb. 20th.  The Nevada GOP is also not happy about how they were squeezed in 2012, and is looking to go one week earlier than SC this time, just as they originally intended to in 2012.  So that puts Nevada on Feb. 13th.  NH's primary law means that their latest date would be Tuesday, Feb. 2nd, since they need a Tuesday at least one week before the next contest, and that puts the likely date for Iowa at Monday, Jan. 25th.

So even if the other 46 states play nice, I don't see Iowa voting in February as all that likely.

And fourth, I don't think the RNC is going to be too bothered by that.  They'll be happy enough with a Jan. 25th start date, considering how badly the calendar was bungled in 2012.  Jan. 25th is good enough.

So, to conclude, no, I don't agree that "the RNC has ensured a February start to the season".  Tongue
112  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Does your family know about Libertas? on: January 17, 2015, 12:51:41 am
Why wouldn't they?

You registered in 2009 but have only posted three times, all within the past month or so.

Just putting that out there.

Doesn't seem unreasonable to assume a Libertas sock.

Libertas went back in time to 2009 to create a sock account?
113  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Opinion of opinion threads on: January 16, 2015, 11:54:53 pm
Significantly better than both "opinion of" threads and "opinion of opinion of" threads.
114  Forum Community / Forum Community / Does your family know about Libertas? on: January 16, 2015, 11:31:41 pm
?
115  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of this WSJ article on: January 16, 2015, 11:21:39 pm
Did we know about this when it was published?

Of course we did.  There was plenty of talk about it here at the time.
116  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Recent bans on: January 16, 2015, 10:27:53 pm
Nym has banned Rockingham and re-banned Libertas.
117  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: 2015 Academy Awards Discussion on: January 16, 2015, 10:20:14 pm
Also, why is it that every year the Best Actress nominated films are completely obscure and not in the BP race?

Because women don't get the lead roles in that many BP-contending movies.  Most of the Oscar-baity movies are either ensemble movies or have a strong male lead with no correspondingly strong female lead.  To find the movies with strong female leads, the Academy has to go to the next tier down of contenders.
118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP announces 12 debates on: January 16, 2015, 10:13:50 pm
When did the debates start in 2011?

Here's the list:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_debates,_2012

The first one was in May, but only five candidates participated, and the frontrunner (Romney) didn't show up.  The first debate to include Romney and some of the others in the field was on June 13.
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rick Perry indicted on abuse of power on: January 16, 2015, 09:46:44 pm
*bump*

Perry's now spent $1 million from his campaign $ to pay his legal fees:

http://www.statesman.com/news/news/rick-perry-spends-more-than-1-million-for-lawyers/njqGW/

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Gov. Rick Perry spent more than $1 million in campaign funds on lawyers to defend him following a felony indictment last year.
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As a sitting elected official, Perry could have charged his legal bills to the state, but he opted to pay for his defense out of his campaign coffers.

The legal fees represented about half of the governor’s expenditures from the period that ran from July 1 to Dec. 31. In total, Perry spent just over $2 million in the period outlined in the campaign finance reports.
120  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of opinion threads on: January 16, 2015, 09:34:11 pm
Horrible threads, including this one.

Opinion of opinion of opinion of threads are OK though.
121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP announces 12 debates on: January 16, 2015, 07:21:41 pm
It's also unclear that any of those last three debates will actually happen.  Last time, there were no debates after Super Tuesday.  By Super Tuesday, usually one candidate has enough of a delegate lead that he no longer wants to mess around debating the challengers who are way behind him.
122  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Joe Republic Bureau of Funny Post Archival on: January 16, 2015, 07:04:40 pm
In response to a poll done by the Women's Voice Action Fund

I dont think we are gonna win WVa, we should spend our money in CO and OH. But, WVA is a microcosum of EAST OHIO, she definately plays well there, in OHIO.

I just came here to post that.  Do we also have a WTF non sequitur mine?
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP announces 12 debates on: January 16, 2015, 06:45:21 pm
I thought they wanted less debates (not that I'm complaining)?

This is fewer than last time.  In the 2012 cycle, there were over 20 debates.

Also, the scheduling of the IA/NH/SC debates is going to get messy, since I don't believe those states are going to vote when the RNC would like them to.  Good chance that Iowa and New Hampshire will be voting in January, which means that the New Hampshire debate at least will have to be moved earlier.
124  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XX: A Darn Good Judge of My Financial Situation on: January 16, 2015, 04:32:15 am
Plus, I've got a bunch of men looking down here in Oklahoma City.

Shocked

Update XXI: Bushie's "bunch of men"
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: List every GOP candidate you think will win more than one primary/caucus in 2016 on: January 16, 2015, 12:43:11 am
Again, if all the primaries were held today, then Romney would win basically everywhere (except for the other candidates' home states).  That's because he's leading nationally in the polls by something like 10-15 points.  A year from now, it might be someone else who's leading, but whoever it is has a decent chance of dominating most of the primaries, regardless of how "wide open" things look now.

The regional polarization just isn't extreme enough for five different candidates to be winning in different parts of the country.  We'll probably get ~3 candidates who win multiple primaries.  Might be only 2, and *might* be 4, though I wouldn't bet on that.  But 5 is not going to happen.  Real life is not going to turn into some kind of wacky gporter timeline.  Tongue

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