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April 18, 2015, 06:41:51 am
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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101  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The old man is clueless. Help! on: April 10, 2015, 11:20:18 am
It's an inside joke.  Like feeblepizza's "Alpha Jews".  Except we also have "Omega Jews".

Jews: Alpha-Omega
Joke: Alpha-Omega
Just An Old man = jao man

jao
102  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: It had 25°C today in Innsbruck on: April 10, 2015, 10:39:10 am
And it was 26C here today.  What's your point?
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: PPP: Lincoln Chafee at 0 in New Hampshire on: April 10, 2015, 03:43:47 am
LOL, Chafee has more support on the Atlas Forum than in the entire state of New Hampshire!

Probably because he has several thousand % times higher name recognition on Atlas than he does among those 156 New Hampshirites.
104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: PPP to poll NH this weekend; guess the results on: April 10, 2015, 01:37:45 am
What about the GOP primary there?  PPP hasn't polled NH since November, and that was pre-Walkermentum.  Most of the recent NH polls by other firms show Walker just about tied with Bush there, but I'm wondering if we'll see any bounce for either Cruz or Paul, now that they've announced their candidacies.
105  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Invasion of Bizarro Atlas: Discuss battle plans here. on: April 10, 2015, 12:47:41 am
Has anyone checked out the international discussion there?  It looks like there's quite a bit of discussion about Australian politics:

http://www.politicalforum.com/australia-nz-pacific/

but I haven't dug into it to see if it's any good.
106  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Invasion of Bizarro Atlas: Discuss battle plans here. on: April 10, 2015, 12:08:45 am
I'm Dr Nedrom:

http://www.politicalforum.com/members/dr-nedrom.html

However, I guess we start out on mod review, as none of my posts have been approved yet?  How many posts do you need before being off mod review?

Simfan's introduction thread was great, in that it included "Atlas", and drew Bushie's attention.
107  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton set to announce her 2016 campaign this weekend on: April 09, 2015, 11:39:02 pm

More details:

Quote
The former secretary of state is scheduled to declare her second run for president on Twitter at noon eastern time on Sunday, the source told the Guardian, followed by a video and email announcement, then a series of conference calls mapping out a blitzkrieg tour beginning in Iowa and looking ahead to more early primary states.

Clinton’s Sunday schedule is booked beginning with takeoff from New York to Iowa, where speculation has centered for weeks that Clinton was focusing attention for an April campaign launch. Her scheduled calls are with advisers in other key battleground states.

Clinton’s spokesman, Nick Merrill, did not respond to multiple requests for comment on the contours of Clinton’s campaign kickoff schedule. Another source close to the Clinton campaign confirmed Clinton would be in Iowa in the coming days.
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: US adds 126k jobs in March as Opposed to 245k Expected, Unemployment at 5.5% on: April 09, 2015, 10:47:25 pm
This topic has been moved to Economics.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=210400.0
109  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Upshot: GOP race looks Chaotic: It's Not. on: April 09, 2015, 10:20:21 pm
Yeah, you guys shouldn't get too hung up on polls.  The polls don't matter, except insofar as they have some influence on party elites.  The fact that Rubio is at rock bottom in the polls right now doesn't matter (although really, since many polls show no one above 20%, even the candidates at "rock bottom" aren't that far behind).  What matters right now is the "invisible primary": How are the various candidates doing at attracting support from party elites?  The media is just reporting on the reality that while few party elites are naming Rubio as their first choice, they are, for the most part, more open to him than they are to Cruz.

Here, read Bernstein on why you should ignore the polls, and instead pay attention to what he calls "party actors":

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-02/ted-cruz-is-surging-ignore-it-

Quote
At this point, polls basically reflect name recognition and recall, and candidates who have been in the news do better.

That’s why I don’t pay much attention to the candidates' favorability numbers. It’s almost certain that any opinions held by primary electorates could easily be reversed as the campaign goes on.

If you want to know how the nomination race is going, follow the information about what party actors think, such as the Boston Globe’s tracker on endorsements from New Hampshire Republican players. Those indicators all show the race is still wide open.
110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / MOVED: Lincoln Chafee (D-RI) vs. 12-year-old girl (R-CO) on: April 09, 2015, 09:33:40 pm
This topic has been moved to Alternative Elections.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=210423.0
111  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should we invade and occupy Bizarro Atlas? on: April 09, 2015, 09:11:35 pm
I'm "Dr Nedrom", and have tried to make a couple of posts (including starting a thread on Lincoln Chafee 2016), but it says the posts await moderator approval.  I guess you need the mods to bless your posts when you first join?
112  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: April 09, 2015, 08:16:18 pm
Kasich update:

http://www.ohio.com/news/break-news/kasich-keeps-2016-presidential-prospects-open-ahead-of-visits-to-new-hampshire-south-carolina-1.581983

Quote
Ohio Gov. John Kasich says his recent visits to early presidential primary states have felt “pretty good,” though he’s not ready to make any announcements on a potential run for the White House.

The two-term Republican governor heads back to South Carolina and New Hampshire next week as he considers a 2016 presidential bid. He is also scheduled to speak Monday to a meeting of the Detroit Economic Club.

Kasich told reporters Thursday after a Statehouse event that he’s keeping all his options open. He said he’s enjoyed being out to the states and noted it’s been a different experience than the one he had roughly 16 years ago.
113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Lincoln Chafee launches presidential exploratory committee on: April 09, 2015, 06:38:41 pm
If candidates with the resumes of Chafee, Webb and O'Malley had been running against Gore in 2000, it would have been considered a serious fight.

Bradley had a higher national profile going into 2000 than any of those three do going into 2016.  And I expect that none of those three will do as well in 2016 as Bradley did in 2000.
114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Lincoln Chafee launches presidential exploratory committee on: April 09, 2015, 06:13:04 pm
Chafee wastes no time going after Clinton:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/lincoln-chafee-2016-president-exploratory-committee-116810.html?hp=rc3_4

Quote
“I would argue that anybody who voted for the Iraq War should not be president, and certainly anybody who voted for the Iraq War should not lead the Democratic Party into an election,” the former Rhode Island governor and senator — who only became a Democrat in 2013 — told POLITICO.

Chafee said his differences with Clinton are primarily related to foreign policy, and he condemned the former senator and former secretary of state for what he called her “top-down American muscular approach.”
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He said he does not expect to have significant differences with Clinton on domestic issues and singled out environmental stewardship as a point on which they agree.
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Santorum sets up "testing the waters" committee, is branded enemy by ISIS on: April 09, 2015, 06:02:05 pm
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/santorum-testing-waters-another-presidentail-run-n338566

Quote
Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has set up a "testing the waters" account ahead of a second possible presidential run, an aide confirmed to NBC News.

The account is the most telling sign yet that Santorum, who ran for president in 2012, is leaning towards another presidential run. A final decision is expected around June, Santorum aide Matt Beynon said.

The account, which was first reported by CBS News, allows Santorum to raise limited funds while considering a 2016 bid. Donations do not have to be reported but will count towards federal limits on campaign contributions if he enters the race.

"He's been encouraged by the crowds and what he has seen traveling the country," Beynon said.

Meanwhile, Santorum has made some powerful enemies:

http://www.phillymag.com/news/2015/04/06/isis-magazine-labels-rick-santorum-an-enemy/

Quote
Sometimes, it pays to have the right enemies. So you can’t blame Rick Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator, for being pretty happy that a magazine published by ISIS has labeled him an “enemy” of the radical Islamic terror group that is battling for control in Iraq and Syria.

“In The Words of the Enemy” is a regular feature in Dabiq magazine — a sort of “Who Wore It Best” for the scary fundamentalist set — and Santorum is featured in the latest issue, quoted about his concerns that ISIS is growing ever more credible in the Muslim world.


116  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: opinion of bizarro atlas? on: April 09, 2015, 02:54:45 pm
What did Bizarro Opebo post over there that apparently got edited by a mod?
117  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Hillary quite weak, as Paul runs best against her on: April 09, 2015, 09:34:13 am
I wonder if they are using 2014 turnout models.

They aren't using any turnout model at all.  This is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters.
118  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Petition to ban OC for utter stupidity and extremely poor grammar on: April 09, 2015, 06:24:11 am
His posts are like poetry.  I mean…

Yeah, if Paul is the nomimee, she would do worst against a fresher face than Walker. But, the 272 firewall includes OH or CO. She can certainly either of the two, not necessarily winning both.

I have no idea what any of that means, but it sounds beautiful.

He's been posting nonsense since he first registered back in 2006.  From one of his first posts, a wonderful run-on sentence:

But like I said before, Republicans targeting this race as a top tier battleground state and do to Republicans winning in statewide races before, like Ehlrich, this will come down to undecided votes, and no lead is safe in MD, VA, NJ, and PA.
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Hillary quite weak, as Paul runs best against her on: April 09, 2015, 05:44:23 am
I won't bother to list everyone's favorability in all three states, but, to give an indication of the relative name recognition of the various candidates, here's the %age of respondents in CO/IA/VA who answered "haven't heard enough about [him/her]" when asked their opinion of the person in question:

Clinton 6 / 5 / 4
Christie 29 / 31 / 25
Bush 25 / 28 / 28
Paul 33 / 35 / 33
Huckabee 29 / 27 / 28
Walker 50 / 50 / 53
Rubio 42 / 54 / 44
Cruz 36 / 42 / 31
120  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Hillary quite weak, as Paul runs best against her on: April 09, 2015, 05:23:46 am
Here are the results in a more readable format:

Colorado

Paul 44%
Clinton 41%

Clinton 41%
Christie 39%

Clinton 41%
Bush 38%

Walker 42%
Clinton 41%

Clinton 41%
Huckabee 41%

Rubio 41%
Clinton 40%

Clinton 42%
Cruz 41%

Iowa

Paul 43%
Clinton 42%

Clinton 41%
Christie 39%

Clinton 41%
Bush 40%

Clinton 44%
Walker 40%

Clinton 42%
Huckabee 42%

Clinton 43%
Rubio 40%

Clinton 43%
Cruz 40%

Virginia

Clinton 47%
Paul 43%

Clinton 46%
Christie 40%

Clinton 47%
Bush 40%

Clinton 47%
Walker 40%

Clinton 48%
Huckabee 40%

Clinton 48%
Rubio 40%

Clinton 49%
Cruz 39%
121  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Get out: US voters want more deportations, curbs on immigrants on: April 09, 2015, 03:54:51 am
Out of curiosity, how does the US stack up against other developed countries in terms of the unpopularity of immigration?  Are there any developed countries in which more immigration is more popular than less immigration?
122  General Politics / International General Discussion / WaPo: IS leadership dominated by former Saddam Hussein loyalists on: April 09, 2015, 02:17:13 am
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/the-hidden-hand-behind-the-islamic-state-militants-saddam-husseins/2015/04/04/aa97676c-cc32-11e4-8730-4f473416e759_story.html

Quote
Even with the influx of thousands of foreign fighters, almost all of the leaders of the Islamic State are former Iraqi officers, including the members of its shadowy military and security committees, and the majority of its emirs and princes, according to Iraqis, Syrians and analysts who study the group.

They have brought to the organization the military expertise and some of the agendas of the former Baathists, as well as the smuggling networks developed to avoid sanctions in the 1990s and which now facilitate the Islamic State’s illicit oil trading.
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“All the decision makers are Iraqi, and most of them are former Iraqi officers. The Iraqi officers are in command, and they make the tactics and the battle plans,” he said. “But the Iraqis themselves don’t fight. They put the foreign fighters on the front lines.”
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Whether the former Baathists adhere to the Islamic State’s ideology is a matter of debate. Hashim suspects many of them do not.

“One could still argue that it’s a tactical alliance,” he said. “A lot of these Baathists are not interested in ISIS running Iraq. They want to run Iraq. A lot of them view the jihadists with this Leninist mind-set that they’re useful idiots who we can use to rise to power.”

Worth reading in full.
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: April 09, 2015, 01:46:29 am
I already posted about this Webb event in another thread, but here he is talking about the prospects for his campaign:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/jim-webb-critiques-clinton-era-foreign-policy-116796.html

Quote
Axelrod also asked Webb whether the prospect of raising a billion dollars or more to fund a presidential campaign weighed on his decision-making as he contemplates a run.

“It is the great intimidater,” said Webb — who earlier referred to himself as a “very bad fundraiser” — adding “I don’t know how to get around this.”

Another questioner asked Webb if he thinks he really has a shot at beating Clinton, who has been polling around 60 percent in the Democratic primary while Webb polls around 1 percent.

“Early poll numbers can always be tricky,” Webb responded. “They’re almost more name identification at this point.” He pointed out that Bill Clinton also polled in the low single digits at the beginning of his first White House run.

Webb described the timeframe for a decision on running as "this spring".
124  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Webb: US foreign policy has "lacked strategic doctrine" since Clinton admin. on: April 09, 2015, 01:43:19 am
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/jim-webb-critiques-clinton-era-foreign-policy-116796.html

Quote
Jim Webb laid out an implicit critique of two decades of Clinton foreign policy in Chicago on Wednesday night, saying the country has lacked strategic direction since Bill Clinton assumed the presidency.

He also took aim at the 2003 invasion of Iraq and 2011 NATO intervention in Libya.

The former Virginia senator continued to shy away from criticizing Hillary Clinton directly, as he has in recent months, but his critique amounted to one of the strongest contrasts he’s drawn between himself and Clinton to date.

“We really have not had a clear strategic doctrine since the end of the Cold War. I would say particularly since about 1993,” said Webb at an event at David Axelrod’s Institute of Politics at the University of Chicago. Left unsaid was the president who took office that year: Bill Clinton.

Also:

Quote
Pressed again by Axelrod about whether Libya would become an issue should both he and Clinton run, Webb threw up his hands and responded, “stay tuned.”
125  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XXII: Cleaning Up the Meat at [redacted]. on: April 09, 2015, 12:12:27 am
Doubles spaces do in fact get removed on that forum upon posting. Horrible feature.

oh god, the mystery deepens...

I'll probably have to title the next volume of Update "The Search for Spock Bushie" (assuming there is one).

I think Bushie will return before this season ends, assuming you don't lock it prematurely.  It'll take us a while to get through another 20 pages of a Bushie-less Update.  And by the time we do, Bushie will probably be back.
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