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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker under fire for suggesting only “handful” of Muslims are moderate on: August 22, 2015, 07:12:17 am
Walker is so damn stupid that he wouldn't even believe his own words. Literally! I don't know if the US has ever had a presidential candidate with less brains than him. I mean even Santorum (!) has more brains than him, and he's literally as stupid as a cow. The only national politician I can think of with a lower IQ than Walker is in fact Sarah Palin.


102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2) on: August 22, 2015, 07:08:34 am
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/22/us/politics/joe-biden-campaign.html?_r=0

Quote
Mr. Biden has been in contact with donors who could help finance a campaign, eyeing major contributors to President Obama and pillars of his own fund-raising network: trial lawyers, Jewish leaders and Greek-Americans. On Thursday, the vice president, who is not known for aggressively courting donors, spoke to George Tsunis, a Long Island developer and longtime supporter, who raised more than $750,000 for the Obama-Biden ticket in 2012.

Meanwhile, it looks like the timeline for a decision might have slipped all the way to the October debate:

Quote
Those who have spoken directly to Mr. Biden, who spent part of this week with his grandchildren in Delaware, increasingly believe that he is going to take several more weeks to decide whether to pursue a candidacy. They hope the time will provide more clarity about how much political damage Mrs. Clinton has suffered as a result of the email issue, and whether the problems will last.

Mr. Biden is still mourning the death of his son Beau, and his aides had previously said that he would make an announcement about whether he will run by the end of this summer. But it now appears that deadline could slip. He would need to make a declaration before the first Democratic debate on Oct. 13.
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Walker under fire for suggesting only “handful” of Muslims are moderate on: August 22, 2015, 06:57:04 am
link

Quote
An attendee at Walker's event in Derby, New Hampshire, noted that President Barack Obama's administration tends to avoid characterizing the fight against terrorism as a fight against Islam.

"If you're fighting a war, you've got to identify who the enemy is loud and clear," said Walker. "We've said it repeatedly: It's radical Islamic terrorism."

"It is a war against not only America and Israel, it's a war against Christians, it's a war against Jews, it's a war against even the handful of reasonable, moderate followers of Islam who don't share the radical beliefs that these radical Islamic terrorists have.”

More here:

http://host.madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/scott-walker-handful-of-reasonable-moderate-followers-of-islam/article_7476ab23-5f92-5af9-bd68-f5f5672a7945.html

Quote
When asked if Walker was suggesting that almost all of the world’s 1.6 billion Muslims are radical and/or terrorists, Walker campaign spokeswoman AshLee Strong said: “The governor knows that the majority of ISIS’s victims are Muslims. Muslims who want to live in peace – the majority of Muslims – are the first target of radical Islamic terrorists.”

Asked whether the governor simply misspoke earlier or planned to apologize, Strong did not respond.
104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: latest Betfair odds on: August 22, 2015, 03:24:17 am
Trump has moved up to a tie with Rubio for 2nd place.  Clinton’s dropping at just the point in the cycle when she was rising eight years ago.

Up: Sanders, Trump
Down: Clinton, Bush, Carson, Huckabee

Democrats
Clinton 70.9
Sanders 14.9
Biden 11.6
O’Malley 2.6

Republicans
Bush 36.6
Rubio 15.8
Trump 15.8
Walker 13.4
Kasich 6.5
Cruz 4.8
Fiorina 4.5
Carson 2.6
Huckabee 2.6
Paul 2.6

Four years ago today on Intrade:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2999030#msg2999030

Quote
Perry 34.5
Romney 29.5
Palin 8.7
Bachmann 5.6
Ryan 5.4
Huntsman 4.9
Paul 3.9
Pataki 2.7
Giuliani 2.5
Christie 2.4
Gingrich 1.0
Cain 0.5
Bolton 0.4
Johnson 0.4

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1271681#msg1271681

Quote
Democrats
Clinton 66.5
Obama 18.0
Gore 7.5
Edwards 7.1
Richardson 1.3
Biden 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Clark 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 37.0
Romney 25.6
Thompson 19.9
McCain 6.0
Huckabee 3.9
Paul 3.6
Gingrich 3.2
Rice 0.5
Hagel 0.2
J. Bush 0.2
Tancredo 0.1
Brownback 0.1

Bush’s 36.6 right now is similar to frontrunners Perry in 2011 (34.5) and Giuliani in 2007 (37.0).  Neither of them ended up winning a single primary.
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Ted Cruz and Ellen Page spar over gay rights at Iowa State Fair on: August 21, 2015, 09:24:48 pm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/08/21/ted-cruz-ellen-page-spar-over-gay-rights-in-iowa/

Quote
Sen. Ted Cruz and actress Ellen Page had an animated back-and-forth about gay rights at the Iowa State Fair on Friday.

Page asked Cruz, who was standing behind a grill full of pork chops, about LGBT people who are "being fired for just strictly being gay or trans." The question kicked off a nearly five-minute exchange between the actress and the presidential candidate, who did not appear to recognize Page.

"We're seeing Bible-believing Christians being persecuted for living according to their faith," Cruz said. The Texas Republican, who is courting the vote of conservatives and evangelical Christians, is holding a rally for religious liberty here Friday night.

"For discriminating against LGBT people," Page shot back. The encounter was filmed by ABC News.

Here’s the video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKnJunRDzB4
106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MI-Mitchell: Hillary trails! on: August 21, 2015, 10:30:45 am
Here's a link to the poll:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Mitchell_Poll_MI_Press_Release_8-20-15_Rubio_Prez_Final.pdf
107  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton email megathread on: August 21, 2015, 04:30:29 am
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/judge-says-hillary-clintons-private-emails-violated-policy-121568.html?hp=l1_3

Quote
A federal judge has added fresh fuel to the incendiary controversy over Hillary Clinton’s email, asserting during a hearing Thursday that she violated government policy by storing official messages on a private server when she worked as secretary of state.

“We wouldn’t be here today if this employee had followed government policy,” said U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan, apparently referring to Clinton, during a hearing on one of the many Freedom of Information Act lawsuits seeking access to her records as secretary of state.

Sullivan’s said Clinton’s actions had complicated the State Department’s ability to respond to requests for records on various topics. He also ordered the State Department to contact the FBI to determine whether the private server Clinton used, which Clinton turned over to that law enforcement agency earlier this month, contains official records possibly responsive to the FOIA suit.
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kentucky caucus in trouble: Paul may have to choose Prez or Senate race on: August 21, 2015, 02:54:29 am
Saturday’s meeting to decide on whether to go ahead with the caucuses will begin at 10am:

http://www.kentucky.com/2015/08/20/3997626_rand-paul-asks-supporters-to-rally.html?rh=1

Unclear what time they’ll announce the decision.  As the story notes, this is essentially a vote of confidence on Paul’s campaign.  Also:

Quote
Paul also raised some eyebrows by suggesting that Republicans pass a bag during the caucuses to raise money to pay for the events.
109  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: latest Betfair odds on: August 21, 2015, 02:34:21 am
On June 27th, Trump was at 3.4, while Paul was at 10.5.  That was less than two months ago.  Still plenty of time before Iowa for plenty of other candidates to get their turn either crashing and burning or shooting way up.
110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: latest Betfair odds on: August 21, 2015, 02:23:16 am
Clinton dropping like a rock; Trump surging into third place, now beating Walker.

Democrats
Clinton 71.9
Sanders 12.8
Biden 11.1
O’Malley 2.6

Republicans
Bush 38.0
Rubio 15.4
Trump 14.5
Walker 13.4
Kasich 6.5
Cruz 4.5
Huckabee 4.5
Fiorina 4.2
Carson 4.0
Paul 3.1

Winning Individual
Clinton 46.3
Bush 18.0
Biden 7.5
Trump 6.8
Rubio 5.8
Sanders 5.8
Walker 4.0
Kasich 3.4
Huckabee 2.2
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / O’Malley joins Sanders in calling for Social Security expansion on: August 21, 2015, 02:04:41 am
http://time.com/4005849/martin-omalley-social-security/

Quote
The plan would boost monthly Social Security benefits for retirees, though O’Malley’s campaign did not say precisely by how much. For Americans who have been in the workforce for 30 or more years, the plan would increase minimum payouts to 125% of the poverty line, and it would also well increase benefits for minimum wage and lower-income workers.

It would tie benefits to the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly, which O’Malley’s campaign sees as a more accurate basis for determining payouts.

A number of Republican presidential contenders have called for reducing Social Security benefits, either by raising the retirement age or privatizing the program. Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton has promised to “protect” and “enhance” Social Security, while Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has promised to expand it with a more detail plan than O’Malley’s.

(Sanders’ plan would increase Social Security by about $65 a month for most recipients.)
112  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Jared from Subway's Home Raided By Police and FBI on: August 20, 2015, 11:53:02 pm
Subway scraps "Jared's 'pants dance'" game

Lol.
113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which candidates have the best organizations? on: August 20, 2015, 11:49:14 pm
How's Trump doing?

The people working for his campaign don't seem to be very experienced, but, at least in Iowa, he is trying to overcome that by throwing a lot of bodies at the problem:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=217380.msg4691919#msg4691919
114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich on Abortion on: August 20, 2015, 11:45:14 pm
It was almost 16 years ago to the day that McCain made a very similar comment during his 2000 presidential campaign:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/campaigns/wh2000/stories/mccain082499.htm
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Primary Endorsements megathread. on: August 20, 2015, 11:41:48 pm
Charles Barkley is leaning towards Kasich:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/charles-barkley-john-kasich-2016-election-121576.html
116  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Conan O'Brien makes push for Chafee to reach 1% in the polls on: August 20, 2015, 11:39:07 pm
Probably the most national media exposure Chafee's ever gotten:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8MiYob_mL0

If the beginning of the clip doesn't interest you, skip ahead to the ~3 minute mark, to hear Chafee's new campaign theme song.
117  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Updated CNN debate average + why it may be the same 10 people on: August 20, 2015, 11:26:05 pm
And I guess we still don't know what criteria CNBC will use for their debate in October?  (Nor how many participants, for that matter.)  If the CNN debate is the last one to include a "second tier" debate, then we might see some dropouts in the near future.
118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Roger Stone still a Trump hack? on: August 20, 2015, 11:11:54 pm
This article from earlier this week explains it:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/donald-trumps-gang-of-outlaws-121414.html?hp=t4_r

Quote
And the Trump insider who spoke on the condition of anonymity said he believes Stone will soon be back in the fold. “For all of his aggressiveness, Roger is the only adult and he’s been doing this longer than the rest of us, and I think Donald knows that.”
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic debate schedule announced, set to begin on October 13 on: August 20, 2015, 10:43:23 pm
O'Malley signs an online petition asking Jon Stewart to be made a general election debate moderator, and uses it to again bring up his complaints about the small number of Democratic primary debates:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/08/20/omalley-adds-his-name-to-a-petition-seeking-to-make-jon-stewart-a-debate-moderator/
120  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Perry campaign, low on cash, stops paying SC staff *UPDATE* actually, all staff on: August 20, 2015, 10:37:33 pm
Which candidates don't even have big Super PACs to prop them up though?  I wouldn't expect too many billionaires to be propping up the candidacy of George Pataki, for example.  The winnowing might still happen for candidates who can't even get people to donate to their cause by giving to PACs with no donation limits.
121  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Interesting thing happened today at work (re: racism/hate speech) on: August 20, 2015, 10:23:43 pm
I don't live in Europe, so no.

Be careful, Tender.

I don't have to worry: I have never used incitement of hatred or hate speech against foreigners.

You're not worried about offending blaxicans?
122  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP Primary Atlas Poll, August 2015 on: August 20, 2015, 10:20:13 pm
Democrats, please stop trolling the poll.

I may be "trolling," but I really will vote in the Republican Primaries and I'll vote for Trump.

In my state the Democratic Primaries don't count for anything, so there's really no reason to register as anything other than Republican.

Why can't you participate in the Democratic caucus?
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP Primary Atlas Poll, August 2015 on: August 20, 2015, 06:04:53 pm
Democrats, please stop trolling the poll.

Trump is leading the polls in real life which is one of the only accurate thing in this poll. Don't know why you are complaining.

Kasich in 2nd, ROFL.

I'm not sure why it matters whether candidate support on the forum is close to candidate support among the overall pool of Republican primary voters.
124  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Are you offended by whites making racist comments about whites? on: August 20, 2015, 05:59:56 pm
No (not dead0man)
wtf?  First I'm informed I claim to be a Jew, now I'm apparently offended by white people making white people jokes?  You people are weird.

You expressed horror at Earl's joke about whites on AAD.

Lol.
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A divisive primary isn’t going to cost GOP the White House. on: August 20, 2015, 09:30:47 am
The analysis I've seen looks at divisive primaries in relation to the party with the White House. The conclusion is that divisive primaries have minimal effect on the challenging party. They do have an effect of the party defending the Presidency. In the period from 1864 to the present a presence or lack of a contested nomination in the incumbent party has forecast the outcome over 90% of the time.

That makes sense when the incumbent president himself is running, but when the incumbent president isn't running, isn't there always a contested nomination battle in both parties?  I mean, even in 2000, Gore didn't run for the nomination unopposed.


Just cause there's a contest doesn't mean it's a divisive one. Gore made pretty quick work of Bill Bradley, and the elder Bush did the same with Bob Dole. Hell, even McCain had a relatively easy time once the balloting actually started.

By that standard, every Republican contest in the post-reform era except 1976 was quick and bloodless.  Sure, things can get resolved pretty quickly once the voting starts.  But so what?  I think it's a bit of a reach to try to draw grand conclusions when lumping together elections from pre- and post-McGovern/Fraser reforms, incumbent presidents running vs. their successors running, etc.  There are only so many presidential election to choose from, and lumping these things together in this convoluted way, including making arbitrary decisions about what counts as "divisive", seems like a reach.
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