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October 31, 2014, 01:41:15 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH-UMass/WBZ: D: Clinton 49% Warren 16%;R: Romney 29% Paul 11% Bush 11% Cruz 10% on: October 20, 2014, 08:05:00 pm
Bernie-mentum
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / NH-UMass/WBZ: D: Clinton 49% Warren 16%;R: Romney 29% Paul 11% Bush 11% Cruz 10% on: October 20, 2014, 08:04:39 pm
UMass Amherst / WBZ New Hampshire primary poll:

http://www.umass.edu/poll/pdfs/20141020_Toplines.pdf

Dems

Hillary Clinton 49
Elizabeth Warren 16
Bernie Sanders 11
Joseph Biden 6
Andrew Cuomo 3
Deval Patrick 3
Martin O’Malley <1
Cory Booker <1

GOP

Mitt Romney 29
Rand Paul 11
Jeb Bush 11
Ted Cruz 10
Mike Huckabee 7
Chris Christie 6
Marco Rubio 5
Paul Ryan 3
Rick Perry 3
John Huntsman 2
Rick Santorum 2
Bobby Jindal 2
Rob Portman <1
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / FL-Gravis: Clinton 37% Bush 36%; Clinton 43% Rubio 35% on: October 20, 2014, 07:55:59 pm
Gravis poll of Florida:

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-florida-polling/




104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Virginia-University of Mary Washington: Mark Warner almost as popular as Clinton on: October 20, 2014, 07:50:25 pm
Yeah, primary polls that poll all voters as opposed to just one party or the other aren't really primary polls.  I normally don't post them here.
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: North Carolina-Gravis: Rand Paul beats the ladies on: October 20, 2014, 07:44:27 pm
Mind you that only 46% of respondents were younger than 50 years, so this poll probably shouldn't be worth very much, nor taken too seriously or literally.

The North Carolina exit poll in 2012 had 48% of voters there under 50 years old, so this isn't too far off:

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NC#president
106  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The "This is funny now that we know what happened" Time Machine on: October 20, 2014, 12:41:32 pm
On Palin:

McCain would do well to pick her.  Extremely excellent choice.  Sharp, well spoken, unbelievably popular, attractive candidate.  Government reformer know for her ethics reforms.  Downside.  None that I can see.  But, but she's only had two years as a governor.  Not experienced enough.  Uh, Barack, is that really where you want to try and go?

Obama/Edwards: McCain would have to devote at least 10 minutes of every stump speech to explaining who Sarah Palin is.

Well, let me be the first Republican to make a sexist comment, since I didn't participate (deliberately) in that "other" thread. I would prefer that she serve as my mistress.
107  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The "This is funny now that we know what happened" Time Machine on: October 20, 2014, 11:20:17 am
Barak Obama?  What sort of ethnic background?  I'm guessing Arab, possibly Muslim?


He is a Muslim afro american

The name Barack Obama sounds like some neo-African name to me, but not Islamic.
I guess if his father really is an African immigrant, that shouldn't really be a problem. But I can't see a namechanging, Black Pride, 70s person elected to the Senate. I just can't picture it. I know Kweisi Mfume and Chaka Fattah made it to the House, but that's something else. Maybe with DC statehood, but not now.
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Paul's conspiracy theorist past on: October 20, 2014, 05:56:07 am
A trip down memory lane re: the conspiracy theories that Paul sounded sympathetic to in 2008-2010, before he was elected to the Senate:

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/10/rand-paul-truther-conspiracy-theories?google_editors_picks=true

Some of this stuff will surely come up again if Paul gains traction in the race for the 2016 GOP nomination:

Quote
In speeches in 2008 and 2009, [Paul] warned about the influence of military contractors and zeroed in on Halliburton, the corporation that Dick Cheney headed before becoming vice president. Cheney, he noted, opposed the advance of American troops into Baghdad when he was defense secretary during the first Gulf War. Yet as veep he changed his mind because, Paul explained, the war would benefit Halliburton with a "billion-dollar no-bid contract."

Critics have long questioned the Bush administration's motives for invading Iraq. But Paul's claim that a leader of his own party sacrificed American lives not for a misguided view of national security, but for naked greed—practically a charge of treason—was remarkable. After Mother Jones reported on his statements earlier this year, the senator backpedaled. When he was asked by ABC News if he really believed Cheney had been motivated by financial ties to Halliburton, Paul replied, "I'm not questioning Dick Cheney's motives."
.
.
.
At an appearance for his father's 2008 presidential campaign in Bozeman, Montana, Rand Paul was asked what steps his dad would take to thwart the scheme to impose a North American superstate. The first thing to do, he said, was "publicizing that it's going on" and pushing Congress to "stop it." He insisted the Amero push was "a real thing" but cautioned, "If you talk about it like it's a conspiracy, they'll paint you as a nut. It's not a conspiracy, they're out in the open about it. I guarantee it's one of their long-term goals—to have one sort of borderless mass continent." He did not specify who "they" were.
109  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The "This is funny now that we know what happened" Time Machine on: October 20, 2014, 05:16:50 am
On the same topic….in a thread on an early 2012 GOP nomination poll (taken in late 2008), which showed Romney leading with 33%:

I bet Romney takes it. The GOP has thing for people who lost primaries in the past, unlike us Democrats.

33% is probably Romney's ceiling, lol.  it's all could could muster this time around despite having a monopoly on the money.
110  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The "This is funny now that we know what happened" Time Machine on: October 20, 2014, 05:10:20 am
On Romney being in the lead on Intrade to win the 2012 GOP nomination:

My guess is Huck and T-Paw continue their rise and Romney falls to third by spring.  I don't get why Romney is first.  Anyone think he has a real shot at winning the nomination?  How can he get past the same issues he had last time?  People see him as a phony and flip-flopper and not conservative enough.  Republicans will nominate a more conservative candidate this time around.
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: October 20, 2014, 03:58:44 am
Pataki is on a three day visit to NH:

http://www.wmur.com/political-scoop/pataki-is-coming-to-nh-and-he-exploring-a-run-for-president-again/29006268

Quote
Ahead of the 2012 presidential primary he visited the state six times before sitting that contest out. But a source close to Pataki says this time he is more serious than ever. After making some money in the private sector and looking at a wide-open Republican nomination, he and wife are open to "going all in" in 2016.
112  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The earliest plausible time a legitimitate contender will announce a 2016 run? on: October 20, 2014, 01:54:49 am
Define "legitimate contender" and define "announce a 2016 run".  Does launching an exploratory committee count?  Because if an exploratory committee counts, then the NY Times says that there's at least some chance that Clinton would start her exploratory committee before the end of this year:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg4335453#msg4335453

Bush was also saying at one point that he'd decide before the end of the year, though it sounds like that's softened to "end of this year or early 2015".  Based on recent reporting, it sounds like we might also get something early-ish (perhaps even November or December) from Bolton, Jindal, or Portman.  Though again, that's probably an exploratory committee.

But once you have an exploratory committee up and running, then you're acting exactly like a candidate.  The formal declaration of candidacy that follows that is little more than a formality.
113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Romney: I'm not running! on: October 19, 2014, 11:24:11 pm
He genuinely did look like he was going for a little while. Maybe something happened to change his mind.

He's consistently said "I'm not running", and the particular denial quoted in the OP is from May.

At the same time he says "I'm not running", he's visiting Iowa and meeting with big $ donors.  So maybe he'll run and maybe he won't, but this "new denial" doesn't mean anything, because it's from May(!).
114  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: October 19, 2014, 06:42:30 pm
We're back in paradise!  (Aka Oklahoma)!

RIP Kenya.
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: ABC/WaPo national:D: Clinton: 64% Biden 13%; R: Romney 21% Bush 10% Huckabee 10% on: October 19, 2014, 10:07:12 am
I don't take any poll seriously which has Biden ahead of Warren. Thow it in the trash.

So ~half of recent Democratic primary polls are not to be taken seriously?
116  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: October 19, 2014, 08:05:33 am
I'm confused about what Bushie gets out of this trip.  What do you actually *do* once you get to New Mexico?  "Go to the train store and walk around Old Town"?  That's it?  And the train store is something that's mainly of interest to Papa and not Bushie himself?  Other than that, it's just the opportunity to eat at some restaurants that you don't normally visit?

Bushie said "We had a very good day", but I'm unclear on what was so good about it?  Not trying to pick a fight here.  I'm just confused.
117  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you think this FORUM ... on: October 19, 2014, 07:51:36 am
Also, I hope Joe doesn't impose that silly thread splitting setup from the 2010 midterms.  (Maybe that was Spade's idea?)  Just have one megathread for Senate results, another for House results, and another for Gubernatorial results.
118  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you think this FORUM ... on: October 19, 2014, 07:48:33 am
I think you're misremembering 2010.  It didn't crash for any significant length of time.  Look at the timestamps on this thread, for example:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=127334.0

There was a steady stream of posts throughout the night.  No crash.  The traffic isn't really *that* high here for midterms.  It's presidential elections that cause the forum to crash.  In 2012, the forum went down in the middle of the day on election day, and then wasn't back up until well after midnight.
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / ABC/WaPo national:D: Clinton: 64% Biden 13%; R: Romney 21% Bush 10% Huckabee 10% on: October 19, 2014, 01:54:57 am
ABC News / Washington Post national primary poll:

http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1163a52016.pdf

Dems:

Clinton: 64%
Biden 13%
Warren 11%
Webb 2%
O'Malley 1%
Sanders 1%

GOP:

Romney 21%
Bush 10%
Huckabee 10%
Paul 9%
Christie 8%
Carson 6%
Rubio 6%
Perry 5%
Ryan 5%
Santorum 4%
Cruz 3%
Jindal 1%
Kasich 1%
Walker 1%

If Romney doesn't run….

Bush 13%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 12%
Ryan 9%
Christie 8%
Rubio 8%
Carson 7%
Perry 6%
Cruz 4%
Santorum 4%
Jindal 2%
Kasich 2%
Walker 2%
120  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: October 19, 2014, 01:32:56 am
Update from US News & World Report on the total number of candidate visits to Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina since Jan. 1 of last year:

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/data-mine/2014/10/14/presidential-tracker-jim-webb-and-bernie-sanders-in-john-hickenlooper-and-deval-patrick-out

1) Perry: 59 visits
2) Paul: 41 visits
3) Jindal: 31 visits
4) Cruz: 29 visits
5) O'Malley: 26 visits
6) Sanders: 25 visits
7) Santorum: 23 visits
8 ) Christie: 20 visits
9) Huckabee: 14 visits
10) (tie) Biden: 10 visits
10) (tie) Rubio: 10 visits

I was surprised at Sanders being that high on the list, but he's been extremely active in the last two months or so.

How many visits would you need to do to seem as if you're running?

Of course it's different for different candidates.  Clinton's only made one such visit, and everyone's convinced that she's running.  Tongue
121  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you think Christ's death was much like Sneakers O'Toole and opebo's banning? on: October 18, 2014, 08:46:25 pm
Actually, I'd say that Ralph Nader strip clubs J.J. in the Ingress scene.
122  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which of these potential Democratic insurgent candidates will actually run? on: October 18, 2014, 08:40:35 pm
Sanders is in, we're building the infrastructure behind the scenes.

We?  You're part of the campaign?
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Romney: I'm not running! on: October 18, 2014, 07:02:42 pm
That's from May.  Here's his more recent denial:

http://www.bostonherald.com/news_opinion/us_politics/2014/10/mitt_romney_throws_cold_water_on_16_bid

Quote
“All I’ve got to say on that is I’m not running, I’m not planning on running and I’ve got nothing to add to that story,” Romney told the Herald as he entered a stately event last night to launch a new center for neurologic diseases named for his wife, Ann, at Brigham and Women’s Hospital.
124  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: October 18, 2014, 06:58:20 pm
Bushie….do your parents get at all suspicious about you stopping every couple of hours on this trip to post on the forum?  What exactly do they think you're doing online?
125  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 18, 2014, 05:18:52 am
This wasn't included in RCP..... just saying
Because it was done for a liberal group, and was probably skewed a couple points or so in their favor.

This probably shouldn't be in the database, as it's not an independent poll.

Are PPP polls for liberal groups skewed in favor of Ds? I know that PPP polls actually favor Republicans a bit, but not sure if that included internals.

Internals are of course only leaked when they favor the candidate for whom the poll is being conducted.  So it's not that this being an internal skews it Democratic.  It's that there are other internals not being leaked, and they presumably picked one that was good for Braley to leak.  Thus averaging it in with other polls produces a biased result.
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