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27751  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re:Who's going to replace Bush? on: April 04, 2004, 09:17:58 pm
On a side note:  I saw part of the Specter/Toomey debate on C-span.  I know that Specter has all of the advantages, but Toomey came across as the better candidate.

There's a thread for that in the congressional elections section.
27752  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re:Kennedy vs Reagan on: April 04, 2004, 09:09:56 pm
Not that different.  Look at the landslide of '72 between a moderate Reublican and a liberal Democrat.  Only a Dem centrist or one who portrays himself as a centrist has a real shot at the White House.

The was wartime.
27753  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re:Kennedy vs Reagan on: April 04, 2004, 09:01:01 pm
Given the choice between the conservative and liberal lions, it wouldn't have even been close.  America will always choose a conservative.  Witness Gore claiming to be a centrist in 2000 and Kerry even claiming to be somewhat conservative.   Reagan by knockout!

that was 24 years ago, a different time.
27754  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re:Who's going to replace Bush? on: April 04, 2004, 08:51:21 pm
Owens, Giuliani, McCain, Frist, are all possibilites.
27755  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Who is a better candidate - Kerry or Gore....? on: April 04, 2004, 08:50:31 pm
And Kerry is more dislikeable than Gore, even though neither is likeable.
27756  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Who is a better candidate - Kerry or Gore....? on: April 04, 2004, 08:50:05 pm
Gore...because of where he is from.
27757  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re:Hoping for a Kerry/McCain ticket! on: April 04, 2004, 08:44:06 pm
McCain will not be on the Democratic ticket.  End of story.

Probably right.
27758  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re:Kennedy vs Reagan on: April 04, 2004, 08:38:55 pm
I read this interesting article in the Atlantic explaining how Ted Kennedy stopped Humphrey from picking Sargeant Shriver as VP, and how that pick would have won the elction for Humphrey.

I bet Ted Kennedy would have won against Reagan. Was Kennedy hated by Republicans for being liberal then? Anderson would have gotten Perot-like support if he ran against the two.

He wouldn't have won...but he'd be (fairly) close.
27759  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re:Hoping for a Kerry/McCain ticket! on: April 04, 2004, 08:35:17 pm
The hard left would not accept McCain.
27760  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re:Could 1984 ever happen again? on: April 04, 2004, 08:31:01 pm
Dean would have came close to Bush. The margin would have been only about +5 for Bush. You were a former Deaniac, BossTweed?

Yes, but I realized he would have been trashed in the general, and went to edwards 5 days before Iowa.
27761  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Lose ends with the Constitution -IMPORTANT...PLEASE READ on: April 04, 2004, 08:27:20 pm
yay!  My font worked.
27762  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Lose ends with the Constitution -IMPORTANT...PLEASE READ on: April 04, 2004, 08:27:02 pm
[size=48]hi[/size]
27763  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re:Could 1984 ever happen again? on: April 04, 2004, 08:09:12 pm
It would be tough, even Dean would have won a handful of states.
27764  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re:2008 ... just for fun on: April 04, 2004, 07:36:36 pm
I want Rice/Giuliani in 2008.

A black woman would never survive a GOP primary.  Probably wouldn't survive a Dem primary either for that matter.  But she would get crushed in the southern primaries.
27765  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re:Clinton/Buchanan/Perot 1992 on: April 04, 2004, 07:03:43 pm
Buchanan would come in third. He'd carry the southern states Clinton lost, Perot would carry most of the west, and Clinton would win everything else.

Agreed...plus Utah for Pat.  perot would have won Maine.

I've often wondered why so much of Maine was behind Perot. What was the deal with that?

The Northeast likes independents.
27766  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Kerry up by 12 points in Minnesota on: April 04, 2004, 06:58:10 pm
Could anyone tell me how to down size my map?

There is a YaBB way to do it, but I just did it in-house and uploaded it.
27767  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Bush +2 in Ohio on: April 04, 2004, 06:55:26 pm
I like the map Vorlon.
27768  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re:McCain vs. Zell Miller on: April 04, 2004, 04:49:47 pm
in a miller-mccain matchup, ralph nader would have a field day.  he would probably get over 10% of the vote.

Good point
27769  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re:Will you vote for Nader... on: April 04, 2004, 04:48:13 pm
No way!

Down to 21%
27770  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re:georgia--1972 & 1976 on: April 04, 2004, 04:26:06 pm
And another!

Mississippi 1944:


Mississippi 1948:


Yaaah! Cheesy
27771  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Kerry up by 12 points in Minnesota on: April 04, 2004, 04:23:07 pm
this poll is whack

Lets here something about the methodology before we dismiss it like that shall we….


Ok, relax, everybody take a deep breath here... It's prozac time....

Point 1:

30 weeks out polling just doesn't work all that well.

Point 2:

This was a "likely voter" poll taken right smack in the middle of the Richard Clarke matter - of course Democrats "were paying a lot of attention" to the race, and "following closely" and all the other likely voter screening questions....

Given the timing and methodology, A big spike for Kerry 30 weeks out is entirely predictable....

I have Kerry leading by low to mid single digits, this poll is a blip....

If you took another poll this weekend of "likely voters" on the heels of 308,000 jobs Bush would show a "spike"...  It wouldn't mean anything either...

It's 30 weeks out folks.. Smiley


Change your signature.

What don't you like...?

It takes up too much screen space.
27772  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re:georgia--1972 & 1976 on: April 04, 2004, 04:22:22 pm
I found another one.

Utah 1916:


Utah 1920:


Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhh!!!
27773  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Kerry up by 12 points in Minnesota on: April 04, 2004, 04:09:54 pm
this poll is whack

Lets here something about the methodology before we dismiss it like that shall we….


Ok, relax, everybody take a deep breath here... It's prozac time....

Point 1:

30 weeks out polling just doesn't work all that well.

Point 2:

This was a "likely voter" poll taken right smack in the middle of the Richard Clarke matter - of course Democrats "were paying a lot of attention" to the race, and "following closely" and all the other likely voter screening questions....

Given the timing and methodology, A big spike for Kerry 30 weeks out is entirely predictable....

I have Kerry leading by low to mid single digits, this poll is a blip....

If you took another poll this weekend of "likely voters" on the heels of 308,000 jobs Bush would show a "spike"...  It wouldn't mean anything either...

It's 30 weeks out folks.. Smiley


Change your signature.
27774  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re:Political Assassinations on: April 04, 2004, 03:50:06 pm
Bin Laden wil be caught between now and November, I know it.

Either caught or "caught".
27775  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Bye Shapey! on: April 04, 2004, 03:35:33 pm
YOUR party?

Ha!

You seem to be a BIG asset to your party.

I got our guy elected by projecting Super the winner.

why are yoyu so proud of that miami?

Just a classic example of how I know what buttons to push, and when to do it.

hmmmm, I still don't understand why you are proud of these dirty tactics.

Because they WIN!  Just ask CNN!  You know how happy I was when they called FLORIDA FOR GORE???!?!?!?!  I'm getting back at the world now.

Here's my slogan:

A vote for Hughento is a vote for losing fairly.
A vote for the Boss is a vote for winning unfairly.
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