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27826  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:2004 User Predictions - Technical on: March 16, 2004, 04:30:33 pm
Update to the Prediction page:  There is now the ability to click on a state to see the statistical charts of the > 1000 predictions!

Awesome!
27827  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:2004 User Predictions - Discussion on: March 16, 2004, 03:57:18 pm
Gore underperformed in Southern VA ("Southside")... a mix of his apparent stances on coal and tobacco.
If Kerry chooses a running mate who can appeal to these people he has a chance.



Gore lost the Panhandle, which is basically an extension of the coal mining part of WV.  But that area will not swing that state to Kerry.  Almost *all* of WV is 'that area', so Kerry will win there in all likelyhood.
27828  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:2004 User Predictions - Discussion on: March 16, 2004, 03:47:30 pm
Realpolitik,

We aren't winning VA this time.  Hold off until 2008.

Depends who Kerry chooses as VP.
I've put it as a tossup anyhow.

We lost it by 8% last time, it's a stretch.
27829  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Hypothetical.......Edwards v. Bush? on: March 16, 2004, 03:46:54 pm
He would have won North Carolina.

Nope, a small loss there by about 1-2%.
27830  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:2004 User Predictions - Discussion on: March 16, 2004, 03:44:43 pm
Realpolitik,

We aren't winning VA this time.  Hold off until 2008.
27831  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Rasmussen in Florida! on: March 16, 2004, 03:34:53 pm
Kerry will also do substantially better than Gore did among Muslims.  Approx. 60,000 Muslims voted in Florida and favored Bush with about 80%.  that number could be reversed come 2004.
27832  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Hypothetical.......Edwards v. Bush? on: March 16, 2004, 03:32:55 pm
Something like this:



350-188

Clintonian Victory
27833  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re:Gay Marraige will be legal in 50 years on: March 15, 2004, 08:38:42 pm
Perhaps try some homosexual sex out. You might like it. Just give it more consideration.

No thanks
27834  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re:paul tsongas wins the 92 dem nomination.. on: March 15, 2004, 08:37:09 pm
Tsongas (my candidate for the nomination in 1992) would have won but now by the margin that Clinton did.
27835  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Rasmussen in Florida! on: March 15, 2004, 06:29:48 pm
He will do better among that group than he did in 2000 - by at least10% is my current guess.

More like 3-5%
27836  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:2004 User Predictions - Discussion on: March 15, 2004, 06:28:39 pm
Ohio will go for Kerry, only if Pennsylvania does.

JOBS

Ohio don't got em

Actually Ohio's been hovering around 6% unemployment - marginally worse than Missouri at 4.7%, but not nearly as bad as the West Coast or NY.

6% is high, and Ohio, outside of Cleveland is rural dominated.  you always have higher unEmp in urban areas, and CA has many and NY's takes up 40% of the state's population.
27837  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re:IMPORTANT CABINET ANNOUNCEMENT - ALL MEMBERS MUST READ on: March 15, 2004, 04:40:15 pm
I still say Harry shoudl take control now until it is definite Nym can effectively govern.
27838  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / A plea to Harry on: March 15, 2004, 04:38:26 pm
Harry Nelson,

Take contral as president.  Nym is not able to do his job.  Harry, take the job.
27839  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Gallup: Economic Optimism Slips on: March 15, 2004, 04:34:35 pm


It's gone down 20% in 2 months?  why?
27840  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Rasmussen in Florida! on: March 15, 2004, 04:32:03 pm
Rasmussen Reports just released their Florida poll.  Here it is:

Kerry 48%
Bush 45%
Other 2%
Not Sure 6%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Florida_March%2013.htm

Compare that with the Miami Herald Results:

Kerry 49%
Bush 43%

And the ARG Results:

Kerry 45%
Bush 44%
27841  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:If I were Kerry on: March 15, 2004, 04:29:13 pm
YES -completely
yes - mostly
NO  - not at all
no  - mostly not
other -specify why you pick this option

There are three numbers after each state,
First is electoral votes
The second is % of 180 swing electoral votes for each state
rounded to whole number. The third is the % I would spend in each state if I were Kerry.


Fl         27         15% 14% LESS
Oh        20        11% 11%
Mo        11 6% 5% LESS
AZ         10        5% 5%
NV 5        3% 3%
WV        5        3% 3%
AR        6        3% 12% *MORE*        
NH        4        2% 1% LESS

PA        21 12% 12%
MI        17 9% 7% LESS
WA        11 6% 5% LESS
OR 7 4% 4%
NM        5 3% 3%
IO 7 4% 4%
WI 10 5% 5%
MN 10 5% 5%
ME 4 2% 1% LESS

What do you think of my strategy?
(46% defense 54% offense)

I don't comprehend.

No comprendo.
27842  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re:March 9th on: March 14, 2004, 07:38:49 pm
Bush only got 85% in NH.
Who ran against him?

Minor guys, like Blark Ashby and Bill Wyatt.

http://www.ashby2004.com
27843  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re:March 9th on: March 14, 2004, 06:22:00 pm
Since the primaries are no longer competitive, I'll complete the maps only after the election results have been certified - takes about three to four weeks.  This way, I only have to do the work once.

Okay  Smiley
I'm looking forward to it.
27844  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / March 9th on: March 14, 2004, 03:37:54 pm
How come no maps for the march 9th states?  I did all four of them, they aren't that hard.

Edwards actually won 2 counties in Texas Smiley
27845  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Georgia Primary and Kerry's Africanness on: March 14, 2004, 03:36:46 pm
Kerry could approach 93% of the black vote.
27846  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Revised Predictions...? on: March 14, 2004, 03:24:21 pm
I don't see hwo you can say MN isn't trending GOP, it went from being one of the most liberal states in the union (the only state to go dem in 1984), to being a near tossup this year.  If bush does win Minnesota, it will be the first time that has happened since Nixon won it in 1972.

Well, to be fair it was Mondale's home state in 1984, but still, you have a point. It voted for Humphrey in 1968 as well.

Still, it's the only state that went for him.

I was rooting for the 50-state sweep.
27847  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Best case scenario on: March 14, 2004, 03:23:01 pm
I doubt that Indiana would go to the Dem even with Bayh on the tickker having said that where he on the ticket IN would be very interesting to watch...it could certianly be close....Generally your map is pretty much the greatest extent to which the Dems could hope to beat any candidate, however i wonder if GA and IN are going for Bush why not NC even with Edwards the state is as conservative as either IN or GA...

We're talking best-case scenario.
27848  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re:Cabinet Positions on: March 14, 2004, 03:20:01 pm
Attorney General Migrendel too
27849  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Best case scenario on: March 14, 2004, 03:11:32 pm
Also Indiana to the Dems, if Bayh is the VP.
27850  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re:Should I move to Canada? on: March 14, 2004, 03:09:09 pm
Move to Sweden. Smiley

What is the American Dollar worth in Sweden?

About 7.5 SEK. But since you don't know what anything costs here it doesn't tell you anything, now does it? Smiley

No, it doesn't.
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