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November 01, 2014, 02:01:45 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Do Democrats Always Win Close Elections? on: October 23, 2014, 08:53:08 pm
I actually think Democrats win close elections in mostly urban areas, while Republicans win close elections in mostly rural areas.
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KY Senate Race 2014: Getting lucky in Kentucky on: October 23, 2014, 04:03:37 pm
Grimes bashes Chuck Todd

Just when I thought I couldn't like her any more than I already do...

This is a good move. People are sick and tired of the right-wing media telling them what to think.

I figured this out 20 years ago, but better late than never.
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Your choice on: October 22, 2014, 08:04:18 pm
It's a tough call, but I'm from Kentucky, and I have enough pride in my state that keeping it clean from McConnell's Tea Party extremism is a priority.
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY: SUSA: McConnell +1 on: October 21, 2014, 10:39:53 am
McConnell has run probably one of the biggest race-baiting campaigns of this cycle.
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY: SUSA: McConnell +1 on: October 20, 2014, 05:55:18 pm
Excellent news! Grimes is on track to retire turtle face.

Maybe.
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The first election in which each media was used for campaigning on: October 20, 2014, 05:44:19 pm
I want to know what the first election was that was decided by media bias. 1988 is the first I remember, but I wasn't old enough to pay attention in earlier years.
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY: SUSA: McConnell +1 on: October 20, 2014, 05:25:41 pm
I guess that McConnell +8 poll really was an outlier.
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY: WKU: Junk Poll finds Turtleface barely Clinging to Joke Lead on: October 20, 2014, 04:51:03 pm
I was gonna believe this poll at first, until I noticed Grimes was doing better among likely voters.

Very plausible because Tea Party Republicans are not a fan of McConnell and may sit out this one rather than vote for Grimes.

They'll vote McConnell. He supports their policies.

But at the same time, this poll shows only 13% support for the Tea Party in Kentucky. My gosh, that is a terrible showing for them, especially in a relatively rural state.
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY: WKU: Junk Poll finds Turtleface barely Clinging to Joke Lead on: October 20, 2014, 03:20:40 pm
I also notice they oversampled Republicans (big surprise).
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY: WKU: Junk Poll finds Turtleface barely Clinging to Joke Lead on: October 20, 2014, 03:12:01 pm
I was gonna believe this poll at first, until I noticed Grimes was doing better among likely voters.
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The DSCC pulls out of Kentucky on: October 19, 2014, 05:32:10 pm
I think that if Grimes wins Jefferson County by at least 20 points, she wins. She just might do it.
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY-Rasmussen: McConnell+8 on: October 18, 2014, 10:51:26 pm
Also, the Democrats openly refused to recruit strong candidates in 2002 because 9/11 scared them. I am not making this up. I remember Rush Limbaugh gloating about it.
38  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Lima, Ohio: A portrait of not getting by in the Rust Belt on: October 18, 2014, 09:51:53 am
Also, outside of Newport, Campbell County is so thoroughly white that things split more on economic lines than racial lines. If a place closes down or something bad happens, it's usually the poor (regardless of race) who are scapegoated and targeted by right-wing hate speech.
39  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Lima, Ohio: A portrait of not getting by in the Rust Belt on: October 18, 2014, 09:41:23 am
It's still amazing to me how people in Ohio think that a quarter black population constitutes some sort of negro ghetto. A quarter black here is a mass affluent McMansion suburb.

There's people in northern Kentucky who think Newport is mostly black. It's only 8% black.
40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY-Rasmussen: McConnell+8 on: October 18, 2014, 09:37:38 am
Not really, considering McConnell's history. 2002 aside, McConnell never wins by landslide margins and is used to having competitive races - in fact his experience winning previous tough races probably helped him win this one. McConnell's win margins for all his senate races are:

1984: 0.4%
1990: 4.4%
1996: 12.6%
2002: 29.4%
2008: 6.0%

Why was he so strong in '02?

Because the Democrats in 2002 didn't even bother to recruit a top-tier candidate.

The Democrats ran Lois Combs Weinberg, who was a complete unknown, but I voted for her.
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which Kentucky Democrat can take Rand Paul's seat in 2016? on: October 17, 2014, 10:04:16 pm
I think Chandler peaked around the time he was Attorney General.
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which Kentucky Democrat can take Rand Paul's seat in 2016? on: October 17, 2014, 09:15:15 pm
Any of them could win. They almost certainly would, if only the right-wing media would stop its lying (which it won't).
43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: How many more Republicans than Democrats will vote in Colorado? Let's see... on: October 17, 2014, 01:50:05 pm
Jefferson County has had its own issues lately with the Tea Party school board.
44  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The democrats are going to gain a seat in the senate this november on: October 17, 2014, 01:31:40 pm
Remotely possible. But not very likely. At all.

But if The Media had been honest during this cycle, it would be a certainty.
45  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: MN-08: SUSA: Nolan down 8 (!) on: October 17, 2014, 01:21:31 pm
SUSA in Minnesota is historically pretty weird. I don't really buy this.

By 'historically pretty weird' you mean, of course, 'so heavily slanted to the GOP that they're worse than useless'. Though as (alas) this district fell in 2010 we should avoid complacency...

Yet people are complaining in another thread that SUSA is a Democratic outlier.
46  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Lima, Ohio: A portrait of not getting by in the Rust Belt on: October 17, 2014, 12:45:58 pm
German efficiency with Bangladeshi wages, enforced with brutality... the dream of plutocrats. It's been tried -- in Germany.  Nazi Germany, that is, and the brutal order for workers is not so infamous as the genocide and aggressive warfare that killed millions.

Also, Nazi Germany was the first place with so-called "right-to-work" laws.
47  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Lima, Ohio: A portrait of not getting by in the Rust Belt on: October 17, 2014, 12:44:27 pm
Poor people should move to where the jobs are.  And don't give me the BS line that people are too poor to move.

People are too poor to move.
48  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY-Rasmussen: McConnell+8 on: October 17, 2014, 12:33:30 pm
There was also the Rollings poll that had Grimes up by 4. I never saw a word about it here.
49  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY-Rasmussen: McConnell+8 on: October 17, 2014, 12:29:34 pm
\
I mentioned the SUSA poll, saying that it is either an outlier, or that better polls than Rasmussen, Fox News, and YouGov are needed to check SUSA's work.

SUSA never outlies in the Democrats' favor.
50  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY-Rasmussen: McConnell+8 on: October 17, 2014, 12:11:52 pm
For what it's worth, it is Rasmussen.

And it does contradict the past 3 polls that show Grimes ahead.

I see only two recent polls to show Grimes ahead, one of which was an internal. On the other hand, Fox and YouGov have both shown McConnell with comparable leads, which suggests that either SUSA was an outlier or that this race needs better pollsters.

I don't trust a word Fox says. YouGov is an Internet poll, so I don't know how accurate it is.

What about the SUSA poll that had Grimes ahead?
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