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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Ohio: Mixed results for Hillary Clinton in match-ups against Republicans, PPP on: June 11, 2015, 01:21:04 am
Probably most of the undecideds break toward the Republicans once they unify around a candidate rather than having a 5 way tie for 10%.

This will be a higher turnout election, so it's hard to see that not being offset.
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Ohio: Mixed results for Hillary Clinton in match-ups against Republicans, PPP on: June 10, 2015, 05:01:30 pm
This poll polled 411 Republicans and 306 Democrats. Ohio was +7 D in the last presidential election.
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VT-Gov: Shumlin not running on: June 08, 2015, 12:39:58 pm
Good. Maybe now Vermont can get single payer like it was supposed to before he ruined it.
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Keys to the White House on: June 06, 2015, 11:49:26 am
Well according to me:
The democrats lost: Key 1, Key 3, Key 7, Key 11, Key 12
The democrats will get: Key 2, Key 4, Key 9, Key 10
Not sure: Key 5, Key 6, Key 13

So, it will depend about:
-the GOP candidate
-the economu

So I guess it will be a really tight election?

The Democrats would have #1 if it wasn't for gerrymandering. They have #7 (heath care reform) and #11 (bin Laden's takedown). Mark my words, they'll get #5, #6, and #13. The economic ones were largely because the economy was just so bad before Obama.
30  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: California raises smoking age to 21 on: June 03, 2015, 10:30:45 am
Age of majority is 18. Period. Full stop.
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: What explains Elliot County, KY? on: June 03, 2015, 09:52:12 am
Everyone here thinks Kentucky is like the Deep South. It isn't yet - and might not ever be.

Kentucky had some of the first civil rights laws in America, and it's never had a statewide "right-to-work" law yet - and might not ever.

Strom Thurmond, George Wallace, and Barry Goldwater were electorally demolished in this state.
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: KY: 2015 Statewide Primary Results on: May 30, 2015, 05:33:19 pm
Where exactly has the Dem vote been rising in recent years? Louisville, Lexington, and... ?

Frankfort, some places in northern Kentucky, some places around Glasgow, and Woodford County.

Also known as the fast-growing areas.
33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would you describe Rand Paul's ideology? on: May 30, 2015, 09:31:17 am

Where do people get the idea that Rand Paul is libertarian? He not only supports "right-to-work" laws, but he also supports making them mandatory nationwide.
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: KY: 2015 Statewide Primary Results on: May 30, 2015, 07:56:44 am
Harlan County in particular has turned into a real cesspool (I guess the carpet now matches the drapes), compared to even just 15 years ago. I bet Conway won't even manage to lose it by single-digits this time around.

Beshear won it by 35 points last time.

On the other hand, it's not exactly a growing county, and turnout has been terrible there in recent years.
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would you describe Rand Paul's ideology? on: May 29, 2015, 05:55:02 pm
Authoritarian conservative.
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: KY: 2015 Gubernatorial Republican Primary Election Result on: May 29, 2015, 05:16:43 pm
Am I the only one who believes that Bevin will be the new governor?

What's your reasoning behind this prediction?

"KY is a republican state" doesn't really work with its gubernatorial races, and the polling, the extremely close and divisive primary, and Bevin's positions/relation with leadership all point to a Conway Victory. The only thing pointing against Conway is his 2010 senate loss, but that was a senate race, not a governor's race, and it took place during a republican wave. There's plenty of time for things to change, and Conway's polling lead is by no means insurmountable, but he definitely has the current advantage.

Plus, Conway was handily re-elected as Attorney General a year after the Rand Paul debacle.
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: KY: 2015 Gubernatorial Republican Primary Election Result on: May 29, 2015, 05:00:06 pm
Am I the only one who believes that Bevin will be the new governor?

Yes.
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alaska Scenario: Begich vs Miller on: May 26, 2015, 09:22:06 am
Is there any chance Murkowski might get so sick of the Tea Party that she might actually leave the GOP?
39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread on: May 25, 2015, 01:13:54 pm
Pretty amazing Comer won 4 CDs and still came up short:



Republicans in northern Kentucky are very militant - even though they still trail in registration numbers.
40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: State Legislatures 1993-2017 on: May 22, 2015, 11:25:53 am
Even though in theory the Nebraska Unicameral Legislature is non-partisan, in practice each member does have a partisan affliction.  Right now it is something like 35-14 in favor of GOP which for the entire 1992-2014 period I believe the GOP has a majority the entire time.  So Nebraska should really be colored blue the entire period in my view.

The nonpartisan aspect of the Nebraska legislature has basically become a sham. They've tried to do some very partisan things in recent years, such as abolishing the split electoral vote system. But it might be even worse if legislators were elected on a partisan ballot like most states.

So I wouldn't mind seeing other states switch to a nonpartisan ballot, because that might actually improve their terrible legislatures.
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: KY: 2015 Gubernatorial Republican Primary Election Result on: May 21, 2015, 03:40:59 pm
Bevin will be Governor. Conway has a habit of losing to Tea Party candidates in landslides.

Habit, noun: a settled or regular tendency or practice. One instance doesn't make a habit.

He's beaten 2 Tea Party candidates in a landslide in 2 different Attorney General elections.
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread on: May 20, 2015, 09:28:05 pm
Well, I can't argue that the Republican's did have more competitive races that probably drew out more voters, but until recent years, Democratic primary voters always dwarfed Republican voter turnouts in statewide races.  There is no party registration in Kentucky, and to me, these numbers are a clear indication that Kentuckians are finally leaving behind 150 years of allegiance to the Democratic party at state and local levels.

Kentucky does have party registration. And this was a closed primary.
43  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of MADD on: May 20, 2015, 06:37:01 pm
Also, MADD tried to ban the game Grand Theft Auto IV, of all things.
44  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of MADD on: May 20, 2015, 06:31:11 pm
They started out good, but they became bad within their first few years when they became a prohibitionist group.
45  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Congratulations to our new Majority Leader, Chuck Schumer! on: May 20, 2015, 06:26:53 pm
One thing Dems are reminicent about is that Reid; in alot of instances didnt fight hard enough against the GOP on.  Laid down on expecially CROMNIBUS.

One thing Schumer wont be is passive.

This is exactly what people said when Reid took over from Daschle!
46  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread on: May 19, 2015, 09:44:47 pm
So it's a virtual tie between a mega tea partier/snake oil salesman and a domestic abuser?

They were both Tea Party. It appears as if Bevin won the suburban Tea Party, while Comer won the rural Tea Party.

The urban Tea Party is practically nonexistent. It consists wholly of the 80-year-old who calls the police because someone lit a firecracker.
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Apparently Kentucky is a tossup on: May 19, 2015, 07:39:55 pm
Kentucky has a Democratic Governor.  It may not in 2016

After today's results, it will.
48  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread on: May 19, 2015, 04:51:55 pm
Polls closing soon in Eastern Kentucky. Does anyone have a link to the county by county results?

http://datacenter.courier-journal.com/projects/2015-ky-primary-elections/
49  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread on: May 19, 2015, 01:49:52 pm
Who would be the best Republican candidate to beat Conway? Bevin?

Probably Will Scott, who is trailing all the other Republicans.
50  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread on: May 19, 2015, 12:54:28 pm
If I had to guess, I'd say Bevin is most likely to win the primary.

He is just the sort of Tea Party establishment candidate who would beat the polls in the primary, then lose the general.
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