Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 03, 2016, 11:24:03 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 222
26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: KY House Special Elections Will Likely Result in GOP Majority on: March 09, 2016, 04:55:27 pm
If it were anywhere less rural or further from Appalachia, I would say yes with Trump vs. Clinton at the top of the ticket.  But in KY, Trump could bring out conservadems in unprecedented numbers and there aren't as many traditionally Republican suburbs to counter that.  If Cruz is the nominee, they will likely hold.  If it's Trump, it's 50/50 at best for them.

I think Trump is just a drag on the whole Republican ticket.
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: KY House Special Elections Will Likely Result in GOP Majority on: March 09, 2016, 04:50:06 pm
Now the question is - Can they hold these seats this November? I don't have the numbers, but I'm sure turnout was extremely low for this special election, even by Kentucky levels.

For a special election in Kentucky, turnout was stunningly high.
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: KY House Special Elections Will Likely Result in GOP Majority on: March 08, 2016, 08:15:36 pm
Everyone said it couldn't be done.
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: KY House Special Elections Will Likely Result in GOP Majority on: March 08, 2016, 08:00:38 pm
Well,
That's going to be 53-47.
They gained a seat in the end Cheesy

It could still be 52-48 if the GOP flips the Hopkinsville seat.
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: KY House Special Elections Will Likely Result in GOP Majority on: March 08, 2016, 07:40:51 pm
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a GOP-to-Dem flip: The seat north of Lexington has just flipped to the Democrats.
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: KY House Special Elections Will Likely Result in GOP Majority on: March 08, 2016, 06:52:19 pm
Don't look now, but the Republicans might already be mathematically eliminated: The Democrat is way ahead in the seat around Greenup. The Democrat is even way ahead in the seat around Georgetown, which was expected to be a Republican hold.
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: KY House Special Elections Will Likely Result in GOP Majority on: March 08, 2016, 12:09:50 pm
Perhaps. Do people there actually like Trump or feel they align more with Republicans, or is this shift in voting patterns because they just feel betrayed by Democrats but still prefer their agenda?

People here don't like Trump. Or Bevin. But a lot of people here feel betrayed by the Democrats because of the Third Way stuff, and because the Democrats abandoned populism.

But the Republicans are now thought of as more of an exurban rump party. The cities are all Democratic now. Look at how well Jack Conway did in Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin counties.

For what it's worth, I think the Democrats actually widened their voter registration edge in the most recent report.
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: KY House Special Elections Will Likely Result in GOP Majority on: March 08, 2016, 11:47:26 am
A lot of people here seem to underestimate just how militant the Kentucky GOP has become. And 'militant' is the correct word for it.
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: KY House Special Elections Will Likely Result in GOP Majority on: March 08, 2016, 11:43:06 am
So by ruining, you mean winning the Governorship by 8% instead of 20%?

If the Kentucky GOP was more like the GOP of the Eisenhower era or the "ZZ Top Republicans" of the late 1800s, they'd be doing better. But they wouldn't do as much damage either.
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: KY House Special Elections Will Likely Result in GOP Majority on: March 08, 2016, 11:41:20 am
It actually is conceivable (if not likely) that the Democrats could gain seats in November. Presidential elections do have much higher turnout.
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: KY House Special Elections Will Likely Result in GOP Majority on: March 08, 2016, 11:34:28 am
Do they have strong candidates or the resources to mount major efforts in this respect? Maybe the seats you refer to are also not viable for one reason or another at this time (I'm just guessing things here).

In a lot of these seats, they would have had a fighting chance, especially if the Republican candidate has some scandal. The GOP can be taken down if their scandals are exposed. That's what happened in Morgan County a few years ago. Now Grant County government is having the same problems as Morgan County.

Quote
So my thoughts are that maybe they can't get the resources they would need because at best it would only slightly delay the inevitable

It certainly isn't inevitable, as long as Donald Trump and the Tea Party keep ruining the GOP. In fact, it really wouldn't even be likely, especially if the Democrats actually had any guts.
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: KY House Special Elections Will Likely Result in GOP Majority on: March 08, 2016, 09:07:24 am
I'm also very disappointed that the statewide Democratic Party is putting so little effort into keeping the House. They keep claiming the House is their #1 priority, but there's a bunch of seats where they don't even have a candidate in November. If they won't even fight for the House, you can imagine how little effort they're putting into other offices.

In the special elections though, the individual candidates are at least putting in some effort. Labor unions are putting in some effort too.

The Democrats are just lucky that Matt Bevin and Donald Trump are such a drag on the GOP. But it may be too late.
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: KY House Special Elections Will Likely Result in GOP Majority on: March 07, 2016, 11:08:10 pm
Also, Tom McKee just posted something on his Facebook page saying he's "back on the job" after his surgery and is expected to recover fully. So apparently he's back to his legislative duties already.
39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: KY House Special Elections Will Likely Result in GOP Majority on: March 07, 2016, 10:57:03 pm
1.) The most the GOP can get from the special elections is a 50/50 split.

2.) It's too late to switch parties and still run in November.

3.) Elections for House officers already took place in January, so even if the GOP got a majority, they wouldn't be allowed to pick new officers.
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders Supporters -if Hillary Wins, Who Should Be Her Running-Mate? on: March 03, 2016, 10:45:31 am
How about...Bernie Sanders?
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who wins the Kentucky primary (Dem)? on: March 02, 2016, 12:25:20 pm
I see gobs of support on the ground for Sanders.
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: National-SurveyUSA: Clinton 48 Trump 45 on: February 28, 2016, 10:18:41 pm
If someone does a bad job you're not going to rehire them, like if someone lays down a floor and there's a ton of dents, cracks, and it's barely put together then you aren't gonna "stand by them" and let them lay down another floor.

Then Kentucky shouldn't rehire whoever makes its voting machines.
43  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Opinion of Elliott County, KY on: February 28, 2016, 06:41:18 pm
You guys will hate it next year after it votes for Donald Trump.

It won't vote for Trump.
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: National-SurveyUSA: Clinton 48 Trump 45 on: February 28, 2016, 03:32:49 pm
SUSA is a company is not bad, but they are simply unable to model the KY electorate, and that's why Bluegrass banned SUSA from doing any more polling for them after the 2015 elections.

What this means is that Bluegrass and its media outlets don't have the guts to stand by their own pollster.
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could West Virginia be Trump's best state against Hillary? on: February 28, 2016, 01:29:59 pm
Appalachia's future is in solar and wind power.
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: National-SurveyUSA: Clinton 48 Trump 45 on: February 28, 2016, 09:05:50 am
Sounds accurate. After SurveyUSA cleaned up their act in Kentucky in 2015, I tend to trust them more than I used to.

They said Conway was going to win. And they were way off downballot as well.

Other polls (like WKU) agreed with SurveyUSA.

It wasn't the polls that were off. It was the election that was off.
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could West Virginia be Trump's best state against Hillary? on: February 27, 2016, 03:32:08 pm
I actually expect Utah and Idaho to gradually shift towards Dems.

I think it'll happen quickly. Non-Mormons there are already very, very heavily Democratic.

I guess the area could become more Democratic than rural Appalachia.
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could West Virginia be Trump's best state against Hillary? on: February 26, 2016, 11:45:18 am
You are also forgetting the western coal mine region in the state and there are some major cities in that area (Bowling Green, Owensboro, etc)

The central cities vote like central cities elsewhere though, especially Bowling Green since it's a college town. (The suburbs sadly are a different story.)
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could West Virginia be Trump's best state against Hillary? on: February 26, 2016, 11:28:06 am
I'm geographically pretty close, and I have a hard time seeing West Virginia as Trump's best state. I know he has to have a best state somewhere, but that's not it.

While rhetoric in Kentucky always bleets about coal in reality it's not anywhere as vital to the state's functioning as it is to WV.  Yes, there are about 20 counties in the East part of the state that are dying because of coal, but they don't make up much of the state's population.  The triangle from NKY to Louisville to Lexington is the core of the state population wise and economic wise and it has little to no involvement in coal.  The WKY coal counties while not thriving actually have about the same number of miners now as when Obama was elected.

Problem with Kentucky is that its remaining coal mines are nonunion. Kentucky has no remaining unionized coal mines. Zero. None.
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could West Virginia be Trump's best state against Hillary? on: February 26, 2016, 11:01:59 am
West Virginia needs something like a Louisville to set it straight.
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 222


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines