Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 26, 2015, 08:06:35 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 205
26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Last time every major city went Republican on: March 22, 2015, 06:13:29 pm
Romney also won Salt Lake City.

He lost the city.

Not according to Princeton University professor Robert Vanderbai.

I know we determined here a long time ago that Obama won Salt Lake City, Phoenix, and Fort Worth in 2012.
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Last time every major city went Republican on: March 22, 2015, 06:08:36 pm
Romney also won Salt Lake City.

He lost the city.
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Last time every major city went Republican on: March 22, 2015, 12:49:58 pm
Forgot, Grand Rapids was probably 1988.

If Dukakis won Cincinnati in 1988, he probably won Grand Rapids too.
29  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: GOP-dominated suburbs on: March 18, 2015, 09:57:43 pm
DKE coined the phrase "Circle of Ignorance" for Waukesha/Ozaukee/Washington counties. It's pretty much stuck and I usually use it when I talk about that area.

These counties have some of the highest educational levels in the state (along with Dane County). Its literally wrong to call them that.


There's a difference between being poorly educated and being ignorant.
30  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: The Democratic Party is facing a Catholic apocalypse on: March 18, 2015, 09:52:40 pm
It seems like the Catholic vote is more Democratic now than it was, say, 15 or 20 years ago. Maybe it's because Catholics are a little more urban than Southern-style evangelicals.
31  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Romney gets a job! on: March 17, 2015, 10:16:28 am
Why doesn't he get a job strapping dogs to the tops of cars, or manufacturing flip flops?

Why doesn't he get a job, period?
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2015 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA on: March 12, 2015, 10:44:49 am
West Virginia is all Appalachia. Demographically, Kentucky is maybe one-fifth Appalachia now.

And the rest is the South and the conservative Midwest.

Actually, there's another one-fifth that's in the big cities of Louisville and Lexington, which are Democratic.

There's also a handful in smaller central cities that are Democratic.

Some rural areas (Mason or Carroll county maybe) are Republican only at the federal level.
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2015 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA on: March 12, 2015, 10:08:26 am
West Virginia is all Appalachia. Demographically, Kentucky is maybe one-fifth Appalachia now.
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2015 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA on: March 11, 2015, 11:52:51 pm
So is being a Democrat in Appalachia at this point Tongue

Ever hear of a place called Elliott County?

Ever hear of the complete decimation of Democratic officeholders from West Virginia to Tennessee? Just because there's one county that still supports Democrats (even though it barely voted for Obama over Romney in 2012) indicates one trend: it's moving to the Republicans. In 2000, Gore won the county by thirty points (despite Bush winning the state by 15), but in 2012, Obama won the county by three points (27% total drop in twelve years) while the margin for the Republican margin in Kentucky only increased by 8%.

Bandit, shhhhhhh.....

What part of Kentucky is on that map?
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2015 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA on: March 11, 2015, 08:41:47 pm
So is being a Democrat in Appalachia at this point Tongue

Ever hear of a place called Elliott County?
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Can someone explain to me the "Jack Conway sucks" talking point? on: March 11, 2015, 07:31:06 pm
For a while, Conway came across as so, so, so whiny. He went on and on about stupid stuff.

Certainly, the Conway of today would be better than any Republican, but I got so sick of hearing him complain.
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2015 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA on: March 11, 2015, 07:23:00 pm
The Courier-Journal has a big article about how SurveyUSA has recalibrated its poll this time to give more "accurate" results...

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2015/03/10/bluegrass-poll-revamped-improve-results/24718143

In other words, they've changed their methodology to reflect Republicans rigging elections. Such is the state of polling today.
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2015 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA on: March 11, 2015, 02:22:57 pm
I'll be laughing when Conway blows this in November.

What if he doesn't?
39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2015 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA on: March 11, 2015, 01:40:43 pm
The KYGOP isn't ruined, in fact it's probably stronger today than any other time in american history.

"Right-to-work" is unpopular.
40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2015 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA on: March 11, 2015, 01:22:40 pm
Are the KY state Democrats just riding high off Beshear's popularity?

Maybe it has more to do with the Republicans' unpopularity. The GOP made "right-to-work" its top priority, which has ruined the GOP at the state level.
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2015 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA on: March 11, 2015, 01:18:08 pm
Will The Media do its best to destroy Conway and the Democrats? Yes.

The real question is: Will it be enough?
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2015 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA on: March 11, 2015, 09:13:14 am
Remember, this is the pollster that got Ernie Fletcher "elected." They're not exactly a big Democratic pollster.

Plus, Conway is leading in every non-Republican poll, sometimes by as much as 12 against Comer.
43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2015 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA on: March 10, 2015, 07:25:43 pm
Incidentally, Heiner - not Comer - has a pretty commanding lead in the Republican primary now.
44  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2015 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA on: March 10, 2015, 07:14:24 pm
It's starting to look somewhat grim for the Kentucky GOP...

http://www.kentucky.com/2015/03/10/3738389_bluegrass-poll-jack-conway-holds.html
45  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WI: Walker signs "right-to-work" legislation on: March 10, 2015, 01:18:04 pm
Also, if a company has a union, it's because most workers there voted for it.
46  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WI: Walker signs "right-to-work" legislation on: March 10, 2015, 11:31:28 am
Yellow dog contracts are already illegal, but the law isn't enforced.
47  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WI: Walker signs "right-to-work" legislation on: March 09, 2015, 04:46:28 pm
Obama can fix this with a stroke of a pen. He can issue an executive order that says unions don't have to pay for services for people who won't pay fair share fees.

If he does that, it's the end of "right-to-work."

No, he can't.

Oh yes he can.
48  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WI: Walker signs "right-to-work" legislation on: March 09, 2015, 02:55:07 pm
Obama can fix this with a stroke of a pen. He can issue an executive order that says unions don't have to pay for services for people who won't pay fair share fees.

If he does that, it's the end of "right-to-work."
49  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WI: Walker signs "right-to-work" legislation on: March 09, 2015, 01:02:03 pm
Oh well. Another advantage for Kentucky.
50  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Republicans Gain Vacant State Senate Seat in Kentucky on: March 06, 2015, 12:09:43 pm
In terms of explaining the discrepancy, I would put forward this theory.  As Kentucky has slowly transitioned to being a Republican state, it has done so from the Federal level in a trickle down fashion to the state and county level.  For instance, it is hard to get a Democrat to win a Presidential or Senate election (or US House) in Kentucky, but it is still infrequent to get a Republican governor or state cabinet member elected.  I'm guessing that at county level, there are still a higher proportion of Democratic County Judges (Executives) than you would expect if you looked at the county-by-county vote totals for Federal positions.  If true, I would infer that this would lead to somewhat of a dearth of natural Republican candidates for the State House of Reps and hence some Democrats face re-election unopposed or against an opponent with no name recognition.  Also, there are no term limits for Kentucky legislators, so there are fewer open seats.  Thoughts?

Many more Republicans than Democrats were unopposed.

I wonder what percentage of Kentuckians live under a Republican county executive. I'm pretty sure Louisville and Lexington have Democratic mayors (which is really the top executive for those counties). The 3 heavily populated counties in northern Kentucky have Republican judge-executives, but 2 of these counties are urban enough that the Democrats will probably take the lead soon. I know 3 other big counties have a Republican, but I'm pretty sure at least one other big county has a Democrat. Mason County has an independent.
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 205


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines