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September 26, 2016, 07:18:48 am
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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election? on: August 23, 2016, 10:19:48 pm
Plus, in many Republican counties, the county seat actually is a Democratic stronghold. I guess Mason County or Harrison County are like this.
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election? on: August 23, 2016, 10:14:46 pm
Have you ever heard of a statewide majority where only two counties go for the winning candidate? Coal Country and the West are more gone for you which each passing day. Sorry, but it's not happening.

You have to see what's occurring on the ground to really understand Kentucky politics.
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election? on: August 23, 2016, 10:02:42 pm
Bevin is probably done for, but I think Edelen and Beshear are the strongest. Conway definitely is not.

Almost everyone on this site (inculding myself) thought Conway was going to win. Election day comes, and Bevin not only wins, but he wins by so much that he dragged in the Republican Auditor candidate and nearly dragged in the Republican Attorney General and SOS candidates. It's very hard to see 2019 going well for KY Democrats. It's not as if the state is changing in a D direction demographically.

I have serious doubts about this, because Louisville and Lexington are growing, while the coalfields are losing population in droves.
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election? on: August 23, 2016, 09:52:47 pm
Bevin is probably done for, but I think Edelen and Beshear are the strongest. Conway definitely is not.
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton+6 in OH, IA very close on: August 21, 2016, 12:09:35 pm
"Only 80% of Iowa Democrats back Clinton"

I think it's Bernie time...

I think they need to replace Kaine with Sanders or Warren.
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton+6 in OH, IA very close on: August 21, 2016, 11:23:54 am
Aw, how cute, CBS thinks Iowa is gonna be close.
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Why did the Democrats lose so badly in 2010? on: August 18, 2016, 11:07:26 pm
The Citizens United ruling was a factor, but the biggest factor was the media's bias.
33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Expedition Strategies, Indiana: Trump and Clinton tied at 44% on: August 17, 2016, 11:02:03 am
This area is totally polarized, and Bayh is no longer perceived as a moderate.

That's because he is conservative.
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: When was the last time a "lean" or "likely" state went the opposite way? on: August 16, 2016, 01:08:49 pm
Isn't Indiana 2008 the obvious answer here?

I actually kind of saw it coming.

I remember some polls in 2000 when Gore was +4 nationally, he was +6 in Kentucky. I don't know why he cratered after that.
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Where will Trump finish third? on: August 16, 2016, 12:26:26 pm
I also wonder if Hillary might finish third in any counties. Maybe the county in Texas where Obama got 5 votes?
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Where will Trump finish third? on: August 16, 2016, 12:11:12 pm
We ought to talk about counties where this will happen. Maybe something in Vermont or northern California somewhere? The Bronx maybe? Maybe even Denver or something?

Certainly there will be precincts where this happens. If there isn't, I'll eat my hat.
37  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: What is the most pressing local political issue in your county/city/municipality on: August 16, 2016, 11:38:12 am
The Tea Party's ongoing capers are still a big story here. They sued the library - and lost. They sued the county to try to force it to shut down its main courthouse - and lost. They ranted against the county's proposed heroin needle exchange program - and lost. Then a Tea Party leader who opposed that program got busted for selling drugs.

The heroin program is itself a big issue. I went to a county government meeting about it, and everybody supports it except the Tea Party and a local Tea Party radio station WKRC.
38  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why are the "WOW" counties in Wisconsin conservative? on: August 16, 2016, 11:24:36 am
What will be interesting to see is if the trend continues to be bucked in the WOW Counties in a Post-Trump world.

From what I see on the ground, Republican support is cratering in suburban Cincinnati under Trump.
39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Expedition Strategies, Indiana: Trump and Clinton tied at 44% on: August 16, 2016, 10:17:05 am
Edit: I see this is in the internal polling megathread so I'll probably delete it. Is it worth adding? 538 thinks so.

We add Gravis and Quinnipiac, so why not?
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who wins Highland Heights, KY? on: August 14, 2016, 11:05:47 pm
Do you know what the approximate 08 and 12 margins were, Bandit?

I think it was maybe Romney +7 or so in 2012. I think McCain actually did better in 2008, but I'm not sure.

It is a university town, but it's NKU.
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Who wins Highland Heights, KY? on: August 14, 2016, 08:16:01 pm
Who wins this town? It certainly is less right-wing than most of Campbell County. I think Romney carried it somewhat narrowly in 2012. The town has a major public university, and recently the Democrats gained a registration edge in all 5 precincts (though I don't think they still have an edge in every precinct, since it fluctuates a lot).

It's also the same town where the Tea Party guy was busted for selling drugs.

I'm guessing it would be Clinton +3.
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Other source: Indiana a tie on: August 14, 2016, 11:47:54 am
I don't know if this is the right format or place for this post, but a pollster called Howey Politics has Clinton and Trump tied in INDIANA at 44% each:

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/8/14/1559993/-Are-Trump-and-Clinton-tied-44-44-in-Indiana

That's with Trump picking an Indiana running mate!
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: When was the last time a "lean" or "likely" state went the opposite way? on: August 14, 2016, 11:39:14 am
Maryland in 1988, everybody thought Dukakis would win the state.

I thought Maryland turned out to be not even close.

I don't remember much about 1980, but I remember reading later that Carter was supposed to win New York. Someone told me Nixon was supposed to win West Virginia in 1960.
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Clinton picked DWS or Alan Grayson as her VP, would FL be safe D? on: August 13, 2016, 09:57:23 pm
Grayson would help, DWS would hurt.
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA-Suffolk: Trump +1 on: August 11, 2016, 05:15:26 pm
Anyone who thinks Trump will win Iowa is fooling themselves. Iowa is not the new West Virginia.
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA-Suffolk: Trump +1 on: August 11, 2016, 05:13:43 pm
Anyone who thinks Trump will win Iowa is fulling themselves. Iowa is not the new West Virginia.
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA-Suffolk: Trump +1 on: August 11, 2016, 11:53:20 am
Iowa is a mix of Illinois and Minnesota on one end and South Dakota/Nebraska/Missouri on the other.  It looks like that the trend may be now favoring the red (Atlas blue) direction. 

Eastern Iowa and the big cities like Des Moines are growing though. Western Iowa is shrinking.

Dallas county (Wealthy Des Moines Suburb) and Sioux county ( super religous Dutch republican stronghold) are both growing, and these are the two most important strongholds for republicans in the state.

But Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and Iowa City are absolutely booming.
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA-Suffolk: Trump +1 on: August 11, 2016, 11:45:51 am
Iowa is a mix of Illinois and Minnesota on one end and South Dakota/Nebraska/Missouri on the other.  It looks like that the trend may be now favoring the red (Atlas blue) direction. 

Eastern Iowa and the big cities like Des Moines are growing though. Western Iowa is shrinking.
49  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Strickland: Scalia's death "happened at a good time" on: August 10, 2016, 02:10:54 pm
This is even worse than Trump's comments.

No. It is not.
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is the U.S. ready for the first woman president? on: August 10, 2016, 12:14:19 pm
Yes, I am ready for Jill Stein.
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