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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: August 11, 2016, 11:23:40 pm
For such a Democratic state at the Presidential and congressional levels, why are Republicans so close to taking full control of the legislature? Compared to Oregon, Washington looks like a toss-up between the two parties -here's the breakdown as of August this year:

WA Senate

Democrats: 24
Republicans: 25

WA House

Democrats: 50
Republicans: 48


OR Senate

Democrats: 18
Republicans: 12

OR House

Democrats: 35
Republicans: 25

27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: FL/OH/PA-Quinnipiac: Rubio +3, Portman +9, McGinty +3 on: August 11, 2016, 07:23:57 pm
The fact that Sen. Marco Rubio is only narrowly leading Rep. Pat Murphy instead of crushing him can be attributed to the antics of one man:

Donald Trump.
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Inside Hillary Clinton's Plan to Recruit Republicans on: August 10, 2016, 09:16:00 pm
It's official now:

Clinton Camp Formally Launches Republicans for Hillary Effort

WESTCHESTER, N.Y. — Aug 10, 2016, 9:49 AM ET

Hillary Clinton's campaign today announced the formal creation of a group to recruit Republican and independent voters dissatisfied with the GOP nominee, Donald Trump.

The launch of the group, Together for America, comes after months of scattered efforts by the campaign and its allies to woo anti-Trump Republicans.

The group consists of nearly 50 leaders in business, national security, foreign and economic policy, politics and other arenas, according to a list provided by the campaign. Their goal is to eventually build grass-roots support among conservatives, an aide said.

"Hillary Clinton understands the complex and volatile world we live in, and she has the temperament to be president and commander-in-chief. Donald Trump does not," the group's website says. "That’s why so many Republicans and independents are putting country over party and supporting Hillary for president."
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Who Wins Georgia? on: August 10, 2016, 12:14:25 am
Now that the polls have proven -at the very least- that the state is competitive now.  
30  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: How will you react if Hillary wins your state? on: August 09, 2016, 11:58:57 pm
Happy, though not particularly surprised.  Virginia is to all intent and purposes hers. 

If I lived in Georgia, however......  
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Will Hillary win reelection? on: August 09, 2016, 11:10:13 pm
I don't think so - if the Republicans nominate someone like Ryan or Haley, Clinton could lose. Especially if there's a recession before 2020 (and there very well may be).


If d a recession happens combined foreign policy problems and the inevitable Clinton corruption occur on her watch then it's very possible she'll lose.

Besides we are way overdue for a 1 termer anyways. Hillary also wouldn't be winning this year if the GOP had actually nominated a coherent sane candidate anyways.

Then again in 2020 if she faces someone in the mold of CHUMP or Cruz she'll prob win again.

Or the next recession hits after she wins her second term (2021 or 2022), paving the way for a Republican to take back the White House in 2024.

That guess is as good as yours, though a mite bit inconvenient for those of you who would prefer to see Hillary one-termed. 
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Inside Hillary Clinton's Plan to Recruit Republicans on: August 09, 2016, 10:21:02 pm
In days of yore we had 'Reagan Democrats'.  Now we have 'Clinton Republicans':

Inside Clinton's GOP recruitment plan:
The campaign is beginning to reap the rewards of a behind-the-scenes operation that was months in the making.

By Annie Karni
08/09/16 07:51 PM EDT

(...) The unprecedented desertion of the GOP nominee by leading members of his own party — and their embrace of Hillary Clinton — is partly organic, but for the most part it’s being midwifed by the Clinton campaign, which is beginning to reap the rewards of a behind-the-scenes recruitment effort that’s been months in the making.

That effort is expected to culminate in the unveiling of an official Republicans for Hillary group as early as Wednesday, by the campaign.

“In our lifetimes, we have not seen a nominee of a major party have so many members of his own party walk away and denounce them,” said Clinton’s senior strategist Joel Benenson. “It’s out of the realm of politics.”

One of those members, Hewlett Packard CEO and former California GOP gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman, also plans to go even further than her endorsement last week of Clinton: She is planning to launch a group of prominent Republican business leaders backing Clinton, multiple sources told POLITICO.

“Campaigns are always looking for ways to build your coalition of voters,” said Benenson. “To the extent we can add to that by appealing to some moderate Republicans and some Republican-leaning independents — that’s worth some energy. It’s not going to consume the campaign, but it is worth the energy.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/hillary-clinton-recruiting-republicans-226843#ixzz4GtbcII8b

33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Trump's Support Among Republican Women is Crumbling... on: August 09, 2016, 09:55:25 pm
...with some polls showing him struggling even to win 75% of them (Bush, McCain and Romney typically won between around 90-95% of their vote):

Donald Trump’s Support Among Republican Women Starts to Slide

AUG. 9, 2016

Of all the tribulations facing Donald J. Trump, perhaps none is stirring as much anxiety inside his campaign as the precipitous decline of support from Republican women, an electoral cornerstone for the party’s past nominees that is starting to crumble.

In a striking series of defections, high-profile Republican women are abandoning decades of party loyalty and vowing to oppose Mr. Trump, calling him emotionally unfit for the presidency and a menace to national security.

But even more powerfully, his support from regular Republican women is falling after Mr. Trump’s provocative remarks about everything from the silence of the mother of a slain Muslim soldier to how women should respond to sexual harassment in the workplace.

“For people like me, who are Republican but reasonable and still have our brains attached, it’s hard to see Trump as a reasonable, sane Republican,” said Dina Vela, a project manager in San Antonio who said she had always voted Republican and remained wary of Hillary Clinton. But to her own surprise, she has started visiting Mrs. Clinton’s campaign website and plans to vote for her.

Since the two parties held their nominating conventions, Mr. Trump’s lead over Mrs. Clinton with Republican women voters has declined by 13 percentage points, according to polls conducted by The New York Times and CBS News.

In late July, 72 percent of Republican women said they would vote for Mr. Trump, a healthy majority, but far below the level won by the past three Republican presidential nominees. In 2012, Mitt Romney won 93 percent of Republican women. In 2008, John McCain won 89 percent, and four years earlier, George W. Bush won 93 percent.

34  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Petition to ban Seriously? for... on: August 09, 2016, 09:29:37 pm
Where did this come from? 

He hasn't really done anything to warrant a ban, If we banned him we would have to ban half the posters here.


Agreed -as irritated as I get reading his posts sometimes, banning him is the last thing that comes to mind.  He may not be as articulate as Fuzzy, but considering we could do worse when it comes to Trump supporters he's not so bad. 

35  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / President Obama Really Has Transformed the Judicial Branch... on: August 08, 2016, 05:11:08 pm
...even if Merrick Garland isn't ultimately confirmed -or renominated by a President-elect Hillary Clinton:

Did Obama win the judicial wars?
Liberals say he shied away from too many battles and ran into GOP roadblocks. But the result is still a transformation of U.S. courts.

By Michael Grunwald
08/08/16 05:25 AM EDT

(...) It’s not yet clear whether Obama’s judicial legacy will include a Justice Garland, who could swing the direction of the highest court for decades. But even if the Garland nomination stalls, Obama has already reshaped the judiciary, not only the Supreme Court but the lower courts that hear more than 400,000 federal cases every year. And the unprecedented move by Senate Republicans to deny Garland a hearing is just the most intense skirmish in a larger battle over Obama’s nominees, a battle that has transformed the politics of the judiciary in ways that will reverberate long after his presidency.

Ultimately, most of those battles over judges have really been about Obama, a nasty front in the larger partisan war that has raged throughout his presidency. And as with most of the foreign and domestic policy battles of the Obama era, the result, after a lot of bellicose rhetoric and political brinksmanship, has been a lot of change. Obama has already appointed 329 judges to lifetime jobs, more than one third of the judiciary, and they’re already moving American jurisprudence in Obama’s direction. He got two left-leaning women onto the Court: Sonia Sotomayor, the first Hispanic justice, and Elena Kagan, his former solicitor general. He also flipped the partisan balance of the nation’s 13 courts of appeals; when he took office, only one had a majority of Democratic appointees, and now nine do. Just last week, two Obama appointees to the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals struck down some of North Carolina’s strict new election law, calling it a discriminatory effort to stop blacks from voting.

Obama is a political pragmatist and a public advocate of judicial restraint, so he hasn’t nominated the dream judges of the left. But he certainly hasn’t appointed the kind of Federalist Society conservatives that George W. Bush favored, so liberal activists—who have indeed put aside their misgivings and supported Garland—have mostly approved of his impact on the justice system. His appointees have already taken the progressive side in cases involving issues like gay marriage and transgender bathroom choices, as well as cases involving his own health reforms and carbon regulations. And they really are diverse; 43 percent of Obama’s judges have been women, shattering the old record of 29 percent under Bill Clinton, and 36 percent have been non-white, surpassing Clinton’s record of 24 percent. Obama has appointed 11 openly gay judges, when before him there was only one.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/obama-courts-judicial-legacy-226741#ixzz4GmUpgn00
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict what the first term of a Hillary Clinton presidency would be like on: August 08, 2016, 02:11:07 pm
If Democrats take the Senate, we'll have an infrastructure bank, and complete domination of the judiciary branch by Democratic-appointed judges and Supreme Court justices.  And the GOP will lose all hope of repealing Obamacare, taking that option off the table forever. 

If we also have the House, there will be further reforms of President Obama's signature Affordable Care Act, and other health care reforms including allowing Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices, (and maybe federalizing Medicaid as well).  Social Security benefits will be expanded along with buttressed funding for the program.   Some movement will be made towards making college more affordable.  Immigration reform will be passed, with Democrats getting all of the credit. 

I am sure I am missing others, but if Democrats take both houses of Congress this year, the sky is the limit. 
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Will Hillary win reelection? on: August 08, 2016, 01:21:09 pm
In all likelihood, yes -I think a lot of you are placing more faith in the self-corrective capacities of the GOP than they deserve.   They aren't going to nominate someone with cross-party or cross-ideological appeal in 2020 -they are going to double down with the Tea Party and pick either Ted Cruz or Tim Scott, either of whom will go down in flames.  Plus, Hillary as an incumbent would be an even more formidable candidate than she is now, with a governing record behind her. 
38  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Roger Ailes Used Fox News Budget to Target His Enemies on: August 07, 2016, 07:08:17 pm
Roger Ailes Used Fox News Budget to Finance ‘Black-Room’ Campaigns Against His Enemies

By Gabriel Sherman
August 7, 2016
6:30 a.m.

As Rupert Murdoch seeks to stabilize Fox News in the wake of Roger Ailes’s ouster, a crucial question remains unanswered: How was Ailes able to spend millions of dollars to settle sexual-harassment claims without setting off alarm bells?

According to three highly placed sources, part of the answer is that there were few checks on Ailes when it came to the Fox News budget. “It was the culture,” one Fox executive said. “You didn’t ask questions, and Roger wouldn’t entertain questions.” One former News Corp executive explained that because Fox made more than $1 billion in annual profits, the funds that were used for settlements amounted to little more than “a rounding error.”

But with Ailes gone, Fox executives are now looking closely at how Ailes spent Fox money. And what they are discovering is that, beyond the sexual-harassment claims, Ailes was also able to use portions of the Fox budget to hire consultants, political operatives, and private detectives who reported only to him, according to a senior Fox source. Last week, according to the source, Fox News dismissed five consultants whom Ailes had hired to do work that was more about advancing his own agenda than Fox’s. One of the consultants, Bert Solivan, ran negative PR campaigns against Ailes’s personal and political enemies out of Fox News headquarters, a source said. A Fox News spokesperson confirmed, “Solivan was recently informed that his services were no longer needed.” Solivan, who had previously worked for Fox News as a general manager of the channel’s website, did not respond to requests for comment.

According to one highly placed source, Solivan worked out of what Fox insiders called “the Black Room,” an operation Ailes established around 2011 to conduct PR and surveillance campaigns against people he targeted, both inside and outside the company. The “Black Room” was located on the 14th floor of the News Corp building at 1211 Avenue of the Americas, a quiet part of the office that housed Fox News Latino and some marketing and promotions employees. Fox employees Ken LaCorte and Jim Pinkerton — veteran political operatives who’ve worked with Ailes since the 1980s — also worked with Solivan, the source said, adding that Ailes’s personal lawyer and Fox contributor Peter Johnson Jr. advised the team. (In an email, Johnson denied any involvement in “Black-Room” campaigns, saying, “The only online campaign I’m aware of is yours, attempting to create a truth from a fiction with this account.”)
39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / GOP's Women Problem Actually Getting Worse, Not Better on: August 07, 2016, 10:47:16 am
Where Are All the Republican Women?
There are fewer Republican women in Congress now than in 2006. The trend repeats at every level of government.

By David S. Bernstein
August 07, 2016

(...) So far this year, Republicans have nominated women in just 26 of the 308 congressional districts that have held primaries. That’s a mere 8 percent—and it’s in line with the current makeup of the House Republican Conference, which is 91 percent male and 9 percent female.

During the past decade, that disparity has actually grown wider, as wave elections swept out a number of established Republican members of Congress (in 2006, 2008 and 2012), and swept in a lot of new ones (in 2010 and 2014). Since 2006, the proportion of women in the House GOP caucus has dropped from 11 percent to just 9 percent today. Although there are now 247 Republicans in the House, up from 229 a decade ago, there are fewer women: 22, down from 25.

Over the same period, Democratic women took advantage of these electoral shifts, replacing men from their party’s old boys’ network with women backed by EMILY’s List and other advocacy groups seeking to increase women’s representation in office. From 2006 to today, women grew from 21 percent of the House Democratic Caucus to 33 percent. And the party isn’t about to let anyone forget it: Their new class was on display in full force when the House’s Democratic women gathered on stage behind Nancy Pelosi during the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.

And, thanks in part to Michigan’s [Candice] Miller, the number of Republican women in the House may very well decline again. Of the 22 Republican women in Congress, two—Miller and Wyoming’s Cynthia Lummis—are not running for reelection this year. Another, Renee Ellmers of North Carolina, lost a primary in which redistricting pitted her against a fellow Republican incumbent. Still others—including Barbara Comstock of Virginia, Mia Love of Utah, Martha McSally of Arizona and Elise Stefanik of New York—face tough general election campaigns.

This growing disparity, with Democrats electing ever more women and Republicans ever fewer, repeats at every level of government: U.S. Senate, statewide offices, upper and lower state legislatures, and municipalities. (The Center for American Women in Politics at Rutgers University maintains useful records on this.) What that means is that there’s no sign the GOP’s current woman problem is going to get any better any time soon. Quite the opposite: The pipeline is dry and getting drier, all the way down.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/08/gop-republican-women-politics-disparity-feminism-214140#ixzz4Gf69Mj1k
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: GA - Atlanta Journal Constitution: Clinton +4 / Clinton +3 (w/ Third Parties) on: August 05, 2016, 08:03:29 am
Okay, Hillary definitely needs to invest in this state now that she has a real chance at winning it. 
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Third Parties Cutting into Hillary Clinton's Lead Over Donald Trump on: August 05, 2016, 07:52:49 am
Thankfully it doesn't look like this is going to be a particularly close election, if Trump keeps shooting himself in the foot through November (as seems likely):

Clinton's third-party headache:
Polls show younger voters are taking a long look at the Libertarian and Green Party nominees this year. That could be a big problem for Hillary Clinton in a close race against Donald Trump.

By Steven Shepard
08/05/16 05:18 AM EDT

A raft of new polls out this week carried almost unanimously good news for Hillary Clinton, staking the Democratic presidential nominee to significant leads over Donald Trump. But there’s one potential warning sign in these polls should the race narrow: Clinton’s lead over Trump shrinks when voters are allowed to choose one of the major third-party candidates in the race.

Yet the Libertarian Party’s presidential ticket — composed of former GOP Gov. Gary Johnson of New Mexico and former GOP Gov. Bill Weld of Massachusetts — appears to draw more from voters who might otherwise be aligned with Clinton, especially younger voters.

The same is true of Green Party nominee Jill Stein — though to a lesser degree, since Stein doesn’t earn nearly the same level of support as Johnson.

Here’s why Democrats should be concerned: As Trump’s support has dwindled in recent days — leaving the GOP nominee with just his fervent supporters — some soft voters might be moving into Clinton’s camp when asked on a two-way ballot, but defecting to a third candidate when given other options.

“Trump voters are mainly Trump voters, but Clinton voters are still not quite happy that they’re going to end up voting for her,” said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray, who has studied the role of third-party candidates in pre-election polls.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/clintons-third-party-headache-226700#ixzz4GSh5mPa8
42  General Politics / Economics / US Economy Grows by 255,000 Jobs Created in July on: August 05, 2016, 07:41:44 am
Also, the labor force participation rate is going up, as well as wages (albeit slightly):

U.S. Economy Grew by 255,000 Jobs in July

AUG. 5, 2016

The American economy roared ahead last month, as employers added 255,000 jobs, a bigger-than-expected gain that suggests the country’s growth rate may be more robust than thought just two months ago.

The Labor Department report for July had been eagerly anticipated on Wall Street, in Washington and on the campaign trail after conflicting signals in recent months about the economy’s trajectory.

Hiring in May was much weaker than what economists had expected, while a big rebound in June similarly caught the experts off-guard. July’s data suggests an economy that is gaining momentum after a spring slowdown.

“This will be a validator,” said Michael Gapen, chief United States economist at Barclays, in an interview before the release of the data. “Another solid gain in July would suggest that May’s numbers were an aberration.”

The unemployment rate was flat at 4.9 percent. Economists had been expecting a gain of about 180,000 jobs, with a fall in the unemployment rate to 4.8 percent.

June’s gain was revised upward by 5,000 jobs, and May by 13,000. The combination of better gains in the spring and July’s jump in hiring suggest that the Federal Reserve may take a fresh look at raising interest rates when they next meet in September.

The July jobs data is certain to reverberate not only for policy makers at the Fed, but also for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump as November’s presidential election draws closer.
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton PAC to make decision on AZ in 1 month, looking at IN/GA/MO on: August 04, 2016, 08:08:51 am
She should also make a play for Mississippi, Texas, and Utah, if things are as bad for Trump as we are being led to believe, if only to make them competitive. 
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Trump Is Dropped, Who Replaces Him? on: August 03, 2016, 10:40:51 pm
He won't be dropping out, and I don't really see why he should.  His cult following want him to continue to the bitter end, and until that changes he is in it for the long-haul.  And if the GOP establishment think they can force him out, they will have to contend with the fury of his outraged followers who won't forget the slight in years to come. 


45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Trump Supporters Keep His Candidacy Afloat with Flood of Donations on: August 03, 2016, 10:23:28 pm
This grassroots support will be the main reason why Donald Trump will remain (for better or worse) the nominee of the Republican Party:

Fueled by Small Donations, Donald Trump Makes Up Major Financial Ground

AUG. 3, 2016

Donald J. Trump all but erased his enormous fund-raising disadvantage against Hillary Clinton in the span of just two months, according to figures released by his campaign on Wednesday, converting the passion of his core followers into a flood of small donations on a scale rarely seen in national politics.

Mr. Trump and the Republican National Committee raised $64 million through a joint digital and mail effort in July, according to his campaign, the bulk of it from small donations. All told, Mr. Trump and his party brought in $82 million last month, only slightly behind Mrs. Clinton’s $90 million, and ended with $74 million on hand, suggesting he might now have the resources to compete with Mrs. Clinton in the closing stretch of the campaign.

“She’s been doing this for 20 years,” said Steven Mnuchin, a New York investor who is Mr. Trump’s finance chairman. “We’ve been doing it for two months.” More than two-thirds of the $64 million had come online, Mr. Mnuchin said.

The new figures indicate a major shift in Mr. Trump’s campaign, which until recent months was largely funded by hat and T-shirt sales and by Mr. Trump’s wallet. And they suggest that Mr. Trump has the potential to be the first Republican nominee whose campaign could be financed chiefly by grass-roots supporters pitching in $10 or $25 apiece, echoing the success of Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont during the Democratic primary.

The numbers released by the Trump campaign Wednesday are preliminary; official figures — including money spent on direct mail, which is typically expensive, and a precise breakdown of total cash raised in small increments — will become available when Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton file formal reports with the Federal Election Commission this month.

Moreover, Mr. Trump’s surge is coming very late in the campaign, at a point where advertising rates climb and the chance to invest in a long-term digital and campaign infrastructure is long past.

46  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Vote for the next ruler of Westeros! on: August 03, 2016, 10:04:46 pm
Danaereys Targaryen, with Jonathan Stark (yes, even when he finds out about his Targaryen lineage, he will still identify more as a Stark) as Warden of the North.  
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: UT - Hinckley Institute/Salt Lake Tribune: Clinton +1 on: August 01, 2016, 11:49:02 pm
Hillary won't win this state -but just making it competitive would really make my day.  Smiley
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Did Bernie Sanders hurt Hillary more than Benghazi ever did? on: August 01, 2016, 11:45:23 pm
It's pretty obvious Bernie did more damage than Benghazi, and I'm not a Clinton supporter. Benghazi only resonated with Republicans and a small cross section of independents. Sanders aggressively hit her from the left and stirred up at least a few clingers who will remain bitter enough to go Johnson/Stein into the election.

But he also provided Hillary with a competitive primary that energized the base in a way that an uncontested coronation would never have done.

No one should have assumed that outcome wouldn't be a double-edged sword.  Though I believe the positives will ultimately outweigh the negatives to Hillary's favor in November.  
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Which potential future Dem nominee gave the best speech during DNC 2016? on: August 01, 2016, 11:38:18 pm
The only one who really impressed me was Michelle Obama.

I really hope she changes her mind eventually, especially once her youngest (Sasha) enters college -my heart is set on it.  She could follow Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton's example and run for a lower political office in 2020 or thereabouts before running for the presidency in either 2028 or 2032.  
50  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: August 01, 2016, 11:23:55 pm
Obama approvals have now reached 54%, his highest since January 2013.


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