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October 31, 2014, 10:19:29 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Fox polls at 6pm: IA, NC, KS on: Today at 06:14:11 pm
Fox generally has a decent polling record.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Landrieu: Obama and I struggling because South is racist/sexist on: Today at 02:42:53 am
Have fun losing your re-election bid, Landrieu.

It sounds like she is already preparing for that possibility.  But I don't see how this is controversial, she is just being frank (and also factually accurate, which is impressive coming from a politician but should not be).
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Alabama treats inmates like Victorian debtors at best, stray animals at worst on: October 30, 2014, 03:24:57 am
I keep reading worse and worse stories about how America is treating its prisoners like garbage.  The idea of simply having less prisoners is starting to become an idea that a lot of people like (when has the war on drugs been less popular?), but I feel like the idea that we should treat humans with dignity and respect is a ways further, and I'm confounded by it.

I read another story a few days ago about prisons in Texas handing their visitations 'security' over to private companies, where in-person visits are replaced with videos, and the prisoners are charged a dollar or higher per call.  The companies promote it as a way for inmates to stay in touch with relatives or friends further away from them, but when public prisons have expressed interest in the service, the companies always ask for (and occasionally get) a special restriction which limits all prison "visits" to the video calls only.  This allows the prison to save money on bodyguards while they also profit from the prisoners.  Common sense (and also studies) indicate that seeing somebody in person when you are kept in a state of isolation from wider society is probably healthy for you, but why should that stand in the way of the free market doing what it does best?

Although I find OP's story more chilling than that.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: GOP attempting to purge 1 in 7 black voters from voter rolls on: October 30, 2014, 03:09:52 am
Because constricting voting is morally reprehensible?

So are taxes, but that's never stopped Democrats from raising rates and expanding taxable transactions.

Comparing taxes to voting restrictions, are we?  Even if we accept the premise that taxation is a 'necessary evil', we wouldn't be able to say the same thing about voting restrictions; no, we just call that evil.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of endtime.com on: October 29, 2014, 05:26:53 am
Isn't the rule that manipulators always end up getting manipulated, scammers always get scammed?

It makes sense that he would get his 'spiritual guidance' from a site like that, even if he isn't buying anything.  
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is Bushie a personification of White Male Privilege? on: October 29, 2014, 03:59:00 am
I'd rather read pages worth of pbrower posts than that junk.

Well I mean you're feeble-minded enough to unironically enjoy Upworthy and Buzzfeed links, so I don't think you could handle any sort of dense reading like what I posted.

Oh my goodness, please stop.

Of course Bushie is the personification of white male privilege, but with his self awareness and relatively clear understanding of the situations around him he may just be the personification of evil itself - the very Lucifer that rebelled against God and caused all of the pain and suffering in the world.  His careful disguise is not just for us, but also for his family members, who probably see him as very devout and as such in continual need of charity.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: OR-Elway Research: Merkley stomping Wehby flat on: October 29, 2014, 03:49:06 am
Another Republican "gain" flushed down the toilet. Or should I say another race that a Republican was supposed to "win" by keeping their loss within single digits flushed down the toilet.
Where do you even come up with this stuff?

That's a pretty accurate description of the races in OR, MN, and MI (and NM, if anybody ever talked about that as a potential pickup, but I certainly can't recall anyone doing so).
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who wins Alaska? on: October 29, 2014, 03:37:36 am
I've been pretty convinced all year that Begich is relatively safe - as in, will win even if it is under 50%, which looks quite likely.

Of course, I've been wrong before. Smiley
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rick Weiland implodes, accuses DSCC of sabotaging his campaign on: October 28, 2014, 06:06:39 am
That's a Frank Caprio kind of move.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: SD: Mason-Dixon: Rounds+9 on: October 28, 2014, 04:20:07 am
Yeah, this race is not looking promising at all, unfortunately.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NM: Research & Polling Inc: Weh-surge ! (?) on: October 28, 2014, 04:12:46 am
Nope, no surge. Read the fine print guys.

Quote
Research & Polling Inc. generated a random sample in which each New Mexico county received a representative proportion primarily based on turnout patterns in the 2010 general election for governor. When necessary, Research & Polling weights the surveys to reflect the known distribution of age, gender and party affiliation, based on the 2010 election.

wtf 🙅

Yeah, seriously?
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How did you/will you actually vote this year? on: October 25, 2014, 04:40:22 pm
If I actually registered (I didn't for financial reasons) I would vote like this:

Governor: Tom Ervin (I)
Senator: Thomas Ravenel (I)

Senator (Special): Tim Scott (R)
Representative: Jeff Duncan (R)


Does South Carolina have poll taxes?!?

$47 per ballot minus 52 cents per year that you have been a lawfully registered voter.

The additional $5 for a valid ID if one does not have one is offset by a refund offered by the State, although you do have to pay the postage to mail in the forms to get the $5 refund.
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How did you/will you actually vote this year? on: October 25, 2014, 03:02:51 pm
WA-2 Representative: Rick Larsen (D)
Initiative 1351: YES
Initiative 591: NO
Initiative 594: YES
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: HI: Star-Advertiser/HNN Hawaii Poll (by Ward Research): Schatz +51 on: October 25, 2014, 02:47:54 pm
I suppose Schatz is the incumbent Senator and Hawaii loves to re-elect its Senators in blow-outs.  I still have a hard time believing that he is ahead by over 50 (or even 40) points.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AK-Hellenthal (R): Begich +10 on: October 25, 2014, 02:45:45 pm
I don't know why many here are so quick to pile on the very idea of Begich even pulling off a re-election when he generally led until a couple of months ago, has never trailed by that much, and has developed ties with the Native community (which I assume are a part of why Alaska is so difficult to accurately poll).  He is one of the better bets for a victory that will be unpredicted by the polls, if you are looking for one, IMO.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Keating Research (D): Udall +1 on: October 25, 2014, 02:42:00 pm
Keating is one of the most accurate pollsters in CO.

Click on Lief's quote and read the thread.

That doesn't make it not an internal.

That is not being disputed by anyone.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cotton or Hagan- who is in better shape? on: October 25, 2014, 02:36:41 pm
They both seem like they're in pretty good shape to me.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: If Mark Udall (D-CO) survives, what will be the factor that did it? on: October 25, 2014, 02:33:46 pm
All of this talk of superior ground game in Colorado will be put to the test, that's for sure.

I'm growing less confident by the day on this one, as it feels like the last reason to think Udall can survive is because Bennet outperformed his polling in 2010.  There's no reason to necessarily assume that will happen again (although I do recall the polls in 2012 being off as well, come to think of it).
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: If you thought Obama's response to Ebola hasn't been ideal... on: October 24, 2014, 07:17:36 pm
It might be worth noting however that Reagan advocated against a California ballot measure that would have prohibited homosexuals from serving as public school teachers, which only failed narrowly.  (Then-President Carter also spoke out against it.)  Whatever backbone he had as a California politician on this issue clearly evaporated as he adopted a decidedly anti-humanitarian attitude of neglect towards AIDS due to stereotypes of its victims.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: CA: Drudge Report: BROWN LOSING on: October 24, 2014, 06:29:26 pm
Also, Brown can still probably win whites anyway.
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: will bushie actually practice with autocadd? on: October 24, 2014, 06:10:46 pm
Will cats learn Swahili?  Will there be a breakthrough in which we learn that farts could prevent global warming?  Can Burger King start selling Pepsi products instead of Coke?
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Simple Truths Silver Mine on: October 24, 2014, 05:24:19 pm
Udall not making his stand against security state overreach central to his campaign is one of the worst political decisions of this cycle.

That doesn't really seem like a winning issue.  Udall should have made the campaign about raising the minimum wage and overturning Citizens United, and maybe brought up abortion around this time in the campaign instead.  Tongue

[Exiting Silver Truths, apologies for interruption]
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Electoral-vote.com on: October 24, 2014, 04:46:00 pm
Yeah, I followed them in 2004 actually.  They were ok in 2008 too.  I dunno how their record is on midterms.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Which Democratic Congressmen/Governors DON'T support SSM? Which Republicans DO? on: October 24, 2014, 04:41:43 pm
Oh now they do, I just remember there were 6 Democratic Senators that were holding out, but yeah I s'pose they had to eventually.

No, I think it's only Manchin.  Pryor and Landrieu have made ambiguous statements to the effect that they may not necessarily vote in favor of it in a legislative capacity, if I understand them correctly.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Which Democratic Congressmen/Governors DON'T support SSM? Which Republicans DO? on: October 24, 2014, 04:20:28 pm
You've forgotten Heidi Heitkamp (ND) and Joe Donnelly (IN), they haven't endorsed it.

How could you forget that amazing barrage of endorsements last year? Wink

It's pretty much mandatory for any Democratic politician of any national significance to bear the party line on marriage equality.
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