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June 28, 2016, 10:50:54 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump returns to poll truthing on: Today at 08:10:55 pm
The only poll that matters is the one on election day.

Haven't you heard of J.J.'s Rules of Elections?
2  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Pigfvcker Memorial Suppository for UK News: A Departure from EUtopia on: June 27, 2016, 03:15:29 am
Hard to believe that a Brexit result, at least in the immediate, would cause more chaos among Labour than the Tories... Oh well, hopefully Labour sorts out their issues quickly and leaves time for Tories to jump at each other's throats in the next few months.

Least surprising aspect of this whole disaster, tbh.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: June 27, 2016, 01:32:39 am
Re: Melbourne Ports

Danby is an enormous prick on a personal level (he doesn't seem to understand that when he writes incoherent, insulting comments to people via Facebook that they will invariably be distributed as screen shots, but his decision to preference the Liberals over the Greens may just cost him his seat:
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-liberals-poised-to-take-melbourne-ports-as-labor-slips-to-third-greens-polling-says-20160626-gpsc7l.html

My current electorate is Gellibrand.  ALP will win, obviously, but I'm confident that the Greens will improve on their vote share from 2013.  And like morgieb says, keep an eye on this one - will be competitive in about two elections.  (That being said, Tim Watts is a good MP and he will probably hold the seat as long as he wants it.)

Last I'd seen, the Greens were actually polling better in Batman than Melbourne.  (Like Danby, nobody will miss David Feeney.)  I don't think we will get over the top in Wills, although certainly response from people on the ground has been good - but I just don't think the numbers are there.  I would be shocked if we lose Batman, to tell you the truth.
4  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: June 2016 Federal Election on: June 26, 2016, 01:16:47 am
Harry Truman/Kalwejt
5  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: June 2016 Pacific Senate Election VOTING BOOTH on: June 26, 2016, 01:15:54 am
1184AZ
6  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of David Cameron's achievements on: June 25, 2016, 01:39:05 am
Let him be a lesson to all of the other spineless conservative leaders (looking at you, Malcolm Turnbull).  Reign in your lunatic fringe or face the consequences of letting them control your "leadership".

Yes, Britain voted to leave the EU, but David Cameron allowed this to happen by refusing to lead his party and stand firm in his convictions.  He catered to the crazies with the promise of a sure-to-fail referendum, and then we learned, as we always do, that campaigns based on fear, hate and racism can work.

He's done a lot of good for the Scottish independence movement however.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: TRUMP questions Clinton's religion on: June 21, 2016, 06:22:39 pm
HALPERIN: “Would you say you're an Old Testament guy or a New Testament guy?”
TRUMP: “Probably equal.”
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How can Trump win Virginia? on: June 21, 2016, 06:17:54 pm
Trump can't win Virginia, or the election.  Stick a fork in him, he's done.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Utah GOP chairman talks with Trump about state’s unusual tossup status on: June 19, 2016, 10:06:36 pm
Of course Trump is flailing in Utah.  The vulgar bigot who worships himself, demonizes religions and threatens to split up families is going to have to work very hard to earn their trust!
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: UT Lt. Gov Gives a heartfelt apology to the LGBTQ community on: June 19, 2016, 02:30:16 am
Trump actually won evangelicals in many state primaries, and he will win them in November.

They've decided to vote for someone who "speaks his mind" even if they don't agree with it, because they think Trump is more likely to keep his promises than a Republican establishment hack.  They trust a pathological liar who at least "seems like he will upset the right people" more than the proven panderers.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: By 2:1 margin, Black South Carolinians Support Sentencing Church Shooter to Life on: June 19, 2016, 02:23:31 am
Black churches tend to emphasize social justice in their theology, whereas white Baptists and Evangelicals tend to emphasize penal substitution a lot - avoiding the punishment you deserve [eternal hellfire] for your sin by believing in Jesus, which generally goes hand-in-hand with supporting severe punishments for crimes.

Why does it go hand-in-hand, though?  The way I interpreted it (I grew up in an evangelical environment too) was that because we are all guilty of sin, we should be tolerant of one another and display forgiveness over vengeance.  In other words, social justice is inseparable from the assumption of 'mutual deserved punishment'.  Besides, black churches are pretty gung-ho on the whole 'believing in Jesus' thing too!
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: By 2:1 margin, Black South Carolinians Support Sentencing Church Shooter to Life on: June 18, 2016, 07:05:55 pm
Interesting indeed. Religiosity most likely plays a big role in opposing the Death Penalty for them.

Perhaps, but that makes one wonder why religious whites are so fervent in supporting the death penalty then.

More likely, blacks are generally just opposed to executions, and their principles are not altered by the circumstances of this hateful prick.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should Sanders be given a speaking slot at the DNC if he refuses to endorse on: June 18, 2016, 02:20:39 am
And you absolutely ignored what I said about how saying Hillary is better than Trump isn't an endorsement.  Completely ignored it.  Sad!

Try to extrapolate from this.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: George W. Bush to campaign for vulnerable Republicans on: June 18, 2016, 02:14:10 am
Looking likely this will be the third Republican National Convention in a row he skips though... Grin
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should Sanders be given a speaking slot at the DNC if he refuses to endorse on: June 18, 2016, 02:06:48 am
For reference, here is Sanders' endorsement of Bill Clinton in 1996.

Quote
In terms of who to support for president, the choice is really not difficult. I am certainly not a big fan of Bill Clinton’s politics. As a strong advocate of a single-payer health care system, I opposed his convoluted health care reform package. I have helped lead the opposition to his trade policies, which represent the interests of corporate America and which are virtually indistinguishable from the views of George Bush and Newt Gingrich. I opposed his bloated military budget, the welfare reform bill that he signed, and the so-called Defense of Marriage Act, which he supported. He has been weak on campaign finance reform and has caved in far too often on the environment. Bill Clinton is a moderate Democrat. I’m a democratic socialist.

Yet, without enthusiasm, I’ve decided to support Bill Clinton for president. Perhaps “support” is too strong a word. I’m planning no press conferences to push his candidacy, and will do no campaigning for him. I will vote for him, and make that public. Why? I think that many people do not perceive how truly dangerous the political situation in this country is today. If Bob Dole were to be elected president and Gingrich and the Republicans were to maintain control of Congress, we would see a legislative agenda unlike any in the modern history of this country. There would be an unparalleled war against working people and the poor, and political decisions would be made that could very well be irreversible.

Medicare and Medicaid would certainly be destroyed, and tens of millions more Americans would lose their health insurance. Steps would be taken to privatize Social Security, and the very existence of public education in America would be threatened. Serious efforts would be made to pass a constitutional amendment to ban abortion, affirmative action would be wiped out, and gay bashing would intensify. A flat tax would be passed, resulting in a massive shift in income from the working class to the rich, and all of our major environmental legislation would be eviscerated.

The Motor Voter bill would be repealed, and legislation making it harder for people to vote would be passed. Union-busting legislation would become law, the minimum wage would be abolished, and child labor would increase. Adults and kids in America would be competing for $3.00-an-hour jobs.

You think I’m kidding. You think I’m exaggerating. Well, I’m not. I work in Congress. I listen to these guys every day. They are very serious people. And the folks behind them, the Christian Coalition, the NRA, the Heritage Foundation, and others, are even crazier than they are. My old friend Dick Armey is not some wacko member of Congress laughed at by his colleagues. He is the Majority Leader of the U.S. House of Representatives. Check out his views. No. I do not want Bob Dole to be president. I’m voting for Bill Clinton.

Do I have confidence that Clinton will stand up for the working people of this country—for children, for the elderly, for the folks who are hurting? No, I do not. But a Clinton victory could give us some time to build a movement, to develop a political infrastructure to protect what needs protecting, and to change the direction of the country.

Are we going to pretend that doesn't count as an endorsement?  And yes, Hillary is going to get a better one that (with the press conferences and everything!), especially since she will be adopting much of Bernie's agenda into the DNC platform.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should Sanders be given a speaking slot at the DNC if he refuses to endorse on: June 18, 2016, 02:01:42 am
I don't understand how so many people who are supposedly political observers seem to cling to this idea that he won't eventually endorse the Democratic nominee...

Well, Eugene McCarthy, Ted Kennedy, and Jerry Brown didn't endorse the democratic nominee.  It's not unheard of for a democratic primary to end in bitterness with the loser making unreasonable demands and refusing to endorse the winner.

Thanks for the history lecture.  But my claim is specifically regarding Bernie Sanders.  If he endorsed the Democratic nominee even when he was an Independent (as you are all so fond of pointing out repeatedly), why would he not do so now that he identifies as a Democrat?

Because he said he wouldn't?

Dead wrong.

"...On her worst day, Hillary Clinton will be an infinitely better candidate and President than the Republican candidate on his best day." -- Sanders

Hillary Clinton said Tuesday that she and Bernie Sanders' campaigns have "been reaching out to each other" and that both Democrats will eventually unite to defeat Republican Donald Trump in November.

Are you saying Hillary Clinton was lying about this?

You are very naive if you think that Sanders 'taking this to the convention' is the same thing as what Ted Kennedy did in 1980.  But it fits the narrative you are trying to push, so I understand.  You just deserve to be called out on the disingenuous concern trolling, that's all.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: John McCain (R-AZ) - Obama "directly responsible" for Orlando Mass Murder on: June 18, 2016, 01:56:21 am
John McCain is tough on drugs.  But his original foray into politics was financed by booze money, so he's totally a moderate!
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should Sanders be given a speaking slot at the DNC if he refuses to endorse on: June 18, 2016, 01:52:48 am
I don't understand how so many people who are supposedly political observers seem to cling to this idea that he won't eventually endorse the Democratic nominee...

Well, Eugene McCarthy, Ted Kennedy, and Jerry Brown didn't endorse the democratic nominee.  It's not unheard of for a democratic primary to end in bitterness with the loser making unreasonable demands and refusing to endorse the winner.

Thanks for the history lecture.  But my claim is specifically regarding Bernie Sanders.  If he endorsed the Democratic nominee even when he was an Independent (as you are all so fond of pointing out repeatedly), why would he not do so now that he identifies as a Democrat?

He's had numerous opportunities to say he wouldn't, but has said otherwise.  In the debates he repeatedly said Hillary Clinton is better than any Republican.  He has been stressing the importance of defeating the Republicans in November since Day 1.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should Sanders be given a speaking slot at the DNC if he refuses to endorse on: June 18, 2016, 01:02:09 am
I don't understand how so many people who are supposedly political observers seem to cling to this idea that he won't eventually endorse the Democratic nominee...
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: SC - Clemson: Clinton +50 on: June 16, 2016, 11:10:20 pm
why are you bumping all of these threads

Sh*poster gonna sh*tpost.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Was Trump's motive all along simply to gain more publicity for himself? on: June 16, 2016, 10:54:54 pm
Well, it's obvious that his motive isn't guided by trying to make the country a better place or helping people.  This should have been obvious since the Birther movement- facts do not matter to this man.

No matter what, Trump wins* - he probably launches a TV channel or something where he can offer his bland "politically incorrect" viewpoint on a platform where people will actually fund it (though after this he'll be hard pressed to even find a decent number of advertisers willing to sully their reputations).

*Well, in the sense that he will always be oblivious to just how despised he is by his fellow people.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: GOP congressman: Muslim Community Wants To “Kill Every Homosexual” In The U.S. on: June 16, 2016, 10:46:33 pm
This is what it looks like when Republicans are trying to be inclusive of gays in Alabama in 2016.

Interesting!

Exactly. Their new mantra is "Republicans: We don't want you to have equal rights, but that's not as bad as the Muslims who want to kill you!"

The GOP just needs to stop its pathetic minority outreach and just focus on pandering to their base of angry old white honkies.

Looking forward to the umpteenth "post-election autopsy" recommending better outreach efforts to minorities. Wink
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: GOP congressman: Muslim Community Wants To “Kill Every Homosexual” In The U.S. on: June 16, 2016, 08:41:31 pm
This is what it looks like when Republicans are trying to be inclusive of gays in Alabama in 2016.

Interesting!
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: June 16, 2016, 08:25:44 pm
Are you guys paying attention to the youth unemployment figures?

Or, even more strikingly, the underemployment figures?

The idea that the Coalition are the "better economic managers" needs to die a quick, well deserved death.  I mean, for god's sake, Turnbull drones on and on about the transitioning economy and yet he doesn't even have a vision for what the economy will look like outside of the prospect of it being easier to be an enormous corporation.  It really insults our intelligence, to try to foist the discredited trickle down economics on us, and yet, it looks like people are stupid enough to buy it.  Wow.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: June 16, 2016, 08:23:48 pm
Given how well Shorten is running his campaign, and how dismally, or perhaps "typical" Turnbull has been running his, I'm surprised they're still pretty much tied. There hasn't been an awful lot of movement since the beginning of the campaign.

No, if anything, I'm beginning to come to terms with the sinking feeling that the government holds on, although the Senate will likely not be as good for them.  Doesn't bode well for the prospects of that ABCC Turnbull is always blathering on about!

There's no doubt- the more we see of Turnbull, the less we like, and the more we see of Shorten, the more we like.  That's why the election is being held as early as it possibly could have been.  It looks like there is just enough of that incoherent "muh Labor big spending" sentiment to keep the deficit-happy Liberals in power.
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