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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New South Wales State Election, 2015 on: March 29, 2015, 04:00:37 am
Unfortunately it seems like the Nationals might make it over the line in Lismore in the end, although it's still pretty close.

Greens back ahead Wink
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New South Wales State Election, 2015 on: March 28, 2015, 07:18:49 pm
The North Coast is full of retired hippies, basically. It's not really a country area in the usual Australian sense of the term anymore.

That plus a group of farmers who have good reason not to believe Labor or National promises regarding coal seam gas.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Northland by-election (New Zealand) on: March 28, 2015, 06:22:34 pm
From Tauranga to Northland? When did he move and how did he get so many votes?

It looks like the Labour leader gave his base the tip to vote for Peters.

The National candidate was also an unknown entity.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New South Wales State Election, 2015 on: March 28, 2015, 05:56:40 pm
Btw, why did the 'no land tax' party receive so many votes? Snazzy campaign? Sexy candidates?

They had as many campaign workers as Greens and Labor, except they were paid $30/hr, and didn't have anything to do with the No Land Tax Party other than the paid gig.  So with a strong presence handing out how-to-vote cards I guess it was enough to snag a consistent 2-3%.

One of the workers my friend spoke to at Marrickville Town Hall said he was more of a Greens guy, but a job is a job.  Further into town, another one had showed up at 7:30 asking what they were supposed to do and where they were supposed to go.  The election administrators didn't know who she was until she pulled out her uniform, 'NO LAND TAX' in black on yellow background.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New South Wales State Election, 2015 on: March 28, 2015, 04:02:30 pm
Some interesting patterns even if the overall result is exceedingly vanilla and exactly what would normally be expected from this sort of election.

I have to admit I find great pleasure in this result.  I foreshadowed as soon as Luke Foley took over and announced a $100 million tax cut for the horse and greyhound racing industries that he would crash and burn, and yesterday, he ceded another 3 legislative seats to the Greens and didn't even bother to mention them in his concession ("we are now a serious opposition!" no).  I guess Labor still has further to go before they learn their lesson.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New South Wales State Election, 2015 on: March 28, 2015, 05:11:26 am
ABC projecting 4 seats for the Greens.  Great result!
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New South Wales State Election, 2015 on: March 28, 2015, 04:16:10 am
Greens in 2nd in Heffron (huzzah), Ballina, Lismore, Manly (lol).

1st in Newtown, Balmain.

3rd in Summer Hill.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: the Joe Arpaio reign of terror may be nearing its end on: March 27, 2015, 04:37:49 pm
that's part of my point.  58% white non-Hispanic in the Census could well mean 65% or 70% of likely voters.

okay, but I don't see the comparison with the Deep South in that case.

As states are allocated representation based on census estimates rather than voter registration rolls, the Deep South, which was oppressing the voting rights of the most people, would then have communities voting for racist Democrats when they were majority black.  Arizona is a less extreme example of a similar, but obviously not identical, situation.  And it's entirely possible that 50.1%+ of the Maricopa county adult population approves of Arpaio's tactics, after all.  Or did at some point in the recent past.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New South Wales State Election, 2015 on: March 27, 2015, 04:29:13 pm
Labor was out and early this morning in my part of town, plastering their presence everywhere, including on the bus route maps, outside the church.  Summer Hill theoretically presents a 12.8% advantage to Labor, I believe.  Incidentally, the Liberals candidate stopped turning up to events, had dropped off of Facebook, and meanwhile had a number of complaints from Ashfield council just this year for obnoxious behaviour in her capacity as councilor.  I look forward to seeing the breakdown for this seat, should be interesting.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New South Wales State Election, 2015 on: March 27, 2015, 01:46:14 pm
I haven't seen much evidence of a Labor campaign in Newtown at all, just a bit on ABC about Penny Sharpe targeting the gay community with dating apps.  (Likewise Alex Greenwich.)

The only reason I'm even worried about a Greens loss there is because of the polling and consensus here.

I think Balmain will hold, too.  The Greens should get 2nd in Summer Hill and potentially Lismore (against the Nats).  The Liberals campaign in Heffron also deserves well beyond third place, it's been very visibly phoned in, but the demographic there might be able to help them keep 2nd.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How does the NH State House Work? on: March 23, 2015, 02:53:03 am
It changes parties a lot.  And, due to its size, there are a decent number of weirdos, too.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Who was more liberal, Obama or Clinton? on: March 23, 2015, 02:43:06 am
Obviously President Obama is more liberal than President Clinton.

WJC has certainly mellowed away from much, though not all, of his moderate hero nonsense.  I look forward to Obama's post-presidential policy positions.
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which continents have you been to? on: March 22, 2015, 01:07:13 am
To be honest, although I would very, very much like to go diving on the Great Barrier Reef.  Maybe after the boy finishes university and I don't have to worry about stuff like returning home...

You might not want to put that off for too long... Sad
14  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia on: March 21, 2015, 07:02:17 pm
The last season was especially strong, except perhaps the finale, bit weak IMO, but still one of my favourite shows for many years.
15  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt on: March 21, 2015, 06:57:08 pm
I enjoyed it very much.  Hope there's more!
16  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: What do you think that the other side does well? on: March 21, 2015, 06:54:59 pm
Winning elections.
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which continents have you been to? on: March 21, 2015, 06:49:50 pm
Australia & friends, North America, Europe.  Also Japan, Central America (only as a young child for those two).
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Texas only has enough drugs for one more lethal injection available on: March 21, 2015, 06:33:44 pm
Conversely, I fail to see how anyone who is so opposed to the death penalty that they would consider it akin to murder would support euthanasia,  Life is life.  Both capital punishment and euthanasia are based upon the proposition that life is not so precious that it should never be ended.

Perhaps, but opposition to capital punishment does not have to rely on the reverse of that proposition.

Needless to say, I do feel very strongly that judicial murder is always an unethical act regardless of what crime has been committed, and a disgusting burden on the relatives of the condemned, only compounding the suffering in a barbaric act of bestowing revenge upon people who have not done anything wrong.  It is not the role of the state to execute people.

What any of this has to do with a private, consensual medical decision is lost on me.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New South Wales State Election, 2015 on: March 21, 2015, 05:57:40 pm
How accurate are Australian electorate polls?

Not especially.

If these are to be believed, the Labor party is doing better in regional communities than in some of the western suburbs.  Which might explain why the Coalition has such a good statewide result.  IIRC, Strathfield is normally a safe Labor area.  I don't know what to make of the Newtown poll, except that I hope it's inaccurate. Tongue
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: States where African-American candidates have a hard time winning statewide on: March 21, 2015, 05:11:55 pm
Wyoming.
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Where would you rather live, Berlin or Richmond? on: March 21, 2015, 05:08:39 pm
Berlin, I'd have to guess.  I've been to Richmond as a child but don't remember anything about it really except that it seemed more aesthetically pleasing than a lot of other 'Southern' cities.  I'm planning to visit Berlin a little bit later this year.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New South Wales State Election, 2015 on: March 21, 2015, 05:00:55 pm
Guardian/Lonergan has it as 55-45 to the Coalition, while Galaxy has it at 54-46.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/21/new-south-wales-election-minus-one-week/

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/22/reachtel-labor-leads-in-ballina-newtown-and-strathfield/

There are also three electorate polls, showing some fairly surprising results.

In Ballina, Labor is ahead of the Nationals 52.2-47.8.

In Strathfield, Labor is ahead of the Liberals only 50.8-49.2.

In Newtown, Labor is ahead of the Greens 56.5-43.5.

That is a surprise.  And a very mixed bag...
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of DeadFlagBlues on: March 21, 2015, 04:57:09 pm
He's been one of the best people here for years.  I always make sure to read his posts when thread surfing.
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Straight Thread on: March 20, 2015, 03:35:47 pm
This is a disaster waiting to happen.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Black Man Found Hanging from Tree in Mississippi on: March 20, 2015, 03:32:47 pm
Black people hanging from trees is cause for alarm.

Agreed.
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