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February 09, 2016, 12:59:52 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which of the "battlers for 2nd place" will end up with the fewest NH votes? on: Today at 07:41:44 am
I agree with the consensus, either Christie or Bush.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NH voter pushes Rubio on gay marriage, second asks if Lindsey Graham is gay on: February 08, 2016, 09:22:57 pm
In my opinion that 1st guy should have been told, "What are you complaining about?  You should be thankful that you are not placed under arrest for being homosexual in public.  And yet you still complain like it is not enough that society has bent over backwards to accommodate your alternate lifestyle.  As recently as 2003 your lifestyle was illegal in many states.  Shut up and mind your business."

This is not a Muslim country.  This America.  The land of the free and the home of the brave.  I don't like gay marriage either, but I would never advocate throwing them in prison.  They have every right to live how they want to live in this country without fear of being prosecuted because they love someone of the same sex.  If Rubio would have said this, he would have rightfully been roasted and I would have been throwing the logs on the fire.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Margins of victory on: February 08, 2016, 09:16:19 pm
What should be the final margins of victory for both races tomorrow night?

I would say Sanders by 15 and Trump by at least 8.  I think Trump will under perform his polls, but I still think he pulls off a pretty healthy victory with Rubio claiming the silver.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: CNN/WMUR New Hampshire poll (Feb 4-8): Trump 31%, Rubio 17%, Cruz 14% on: February 08, 2016, 05:22:58 pm
Have to see what Emerson says, but remember what I alluded to in my thread?  Don't throw the baby out with the bath water just yet!  Rubio may not be a dead duck just yet. Smiley
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is everybody burying Rubio after a single debate performance? on: February 07, 2016, 10:04:06 pm
I will say that I never expected Rubio to win the nomination, even though I will be voting for him on Super Tuesday should he make it this far.  It will either be Trump or Cruz, IMO.  The strong third place showing in Iowa did not change that for me other than he is not going to bow out anytime soon.  I believe he can recover from the debate gaffe and we'll have to see how well New Hampshire forgives him.  The thing with the American electorate, by and large we have very short attention spans and very short memories.  I think if he can survive New Hampshire, this gaffe won't even be on the minds of South Carolina or Nevada voters unless he compounds his error in judgment with another gaffe.  He really has to watch himself at the next debate, but if he can get at least a respectable third place showing out of New Hampshire, I think he'll be in good shape through at least Super Tuesday and this gaffe will largely be forgotten in the media and the minds of the electorate.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is everybody burying Rubio after a single debate performance? on: February 07, 2016, 09:40:04 pm
Yea, it has everything to do with victimizing poor, innocent conservatives and nothing to do with his inability to gain traction as the challenger to Trump and his god-awful debate performance where he seemed like a petulant child.

Brilliant analysis, as always.

I was joking...
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is everybody burying Rubio after a single debate performance? on: February 07, 2016, 09:20:11 pm
Because this debate is so crucial - because it is the place where Rubio had to prove he was the definitive establishment candidate.

Atlas is not the judge of that, though, and neither is the MSM.  The voters on Tuesday will be the judge whether he failed at his job.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is everybody burying Rubio after a single debate performance? on: February 07, 2016, 09:17:20 pm

Figures
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is everybody burying Rubio after a single debate performance? on: February 07, 2016, 08:55:04 pm
It happened to Perry....so.....

Yeah, but Perry was a joke candidate to begin with.  Rubio has always been a serious contender.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is everybody burying Rubio after a single debate performance? on: February 07, 2016, 08:54:27 pm
Personally, I don't think he's dead yet. But that gaffe is probably one of the worst I've ever seen. It was timed horribly, and although we won't know until Tuesday I think it's probably axed his momentum, and whatever chances he had of winning NH.

To be fair, he never really had any chance of winning New Hampshire even after his strong showing in Iowa and before that gaffe.  He was always looking at second or third at best.  As some of the pundits have been saying there may be as many as 4 tickets out of New Hampshire and as long as he secures one of those spots, he should have plenty of momentum heading into South Carolina and Nevada and at least Super Tuesday.  I personally still think he stays in all the way through March 15.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Why is everybody burying Rubio after a single debate performance? on: February 07, 2016, 08:47:10 pm
Remember, he came in a very strong third in Iowa and could very well surprise in New Hampshire.  Do they just not like his conservatism and hope that he crashes and burns or do they really think he is toast after a single debate?
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH - Monmouth poll on: February 07, 2016, 08:31:15 pm
It's really annoying that we're getting 5000 NH polls per day, yet not a single person is bothering to poll SC or NV. Roll Eyes

That's what I've been saying.  It makes sense on the GOP side with several likely to drop out this week, but Sanders and Clinton are in it through the convention it seems, so they should be polled.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH - Monmouth poll on: February 07, 2016, 02:05:28 pm
I'm curious to see what happens if Rubio finishes lower that third.

I think he's staying in until Nevada regardless of how he does in New Hampshire. He needs at least third in New Hampshire to still remain viable, however.

Rubio is staying in through at least March 15.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC Manchester, NH GOP debate @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 06, 2016, 02:33:57 pm
Enough about Carly.  Her campaign amounts to chopped liver within the Republican Party.  What internal battles makes the headlines on the Sunday talk shows and Monday news?
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Timeline of Tuesday night (Polls close 8:00 pm EST) on: February 05, 2016, 10:43:50 am
What do you expect the timeline will be for primary night?  Such as exit polls, when should we get first results, how late until the state is called on both sides, and how long until we get our first campaign casualty?
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Nevada and South Carolina Polls on: February 04, 2016, 03:57:36 pm
Why are we getting so few polls out these two states?  I know everybody is focused on New Hampshire, but the Democratic Nevada Caucuses and Republican South Carolina Primaries are just a week and a half after New Hampshire.  I've seen maybe one or two polls out of South Carolina recently sparsely, but nothing out of Nevada.  I know that will change after New Hampshire, but it seems Nevada is still sleeping.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CNN/WMUR NH polls coming at 5 and 6 PM ET. on: February 04, 2016, 03:33:08 pm
Do you think the polls will show a smaller Trump lead after his Iowa defeat?  Or maybe a bit of a Cruz/Rubio surge?
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CNN Derry, NH Democratic town hall @9pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 03, 2016, 10:48:46 pm
The first half of her hour tonight was very strong.  The second half, not so much.  Anybody else get this vibe?
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CNN Derry, NH Democratic town hall @9pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 03, 2016, 10:35:16 pm
That was a long answer, thanks Rabbi.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CNN Derry, NH Democratic town hall @9pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 03, 2016, 10:28:18 pm
The trust question pokes its ugly head...
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CNN Derry, NH Democratic town hall @9pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 03, 2016, 10:18:26 pm
Good National Security answer.  I don't agree with the no ground troops to fight ISIS, but otherwise good answer.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CNN Derry, NH Democratic town hall @9pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 03, 2016, 10:13:58 pm

I agree.  I didn't like the Supreme Court answer, but she's a Democrat, so I can't expect a different answer.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CNN Derry, NH Democratic town hall @9pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 03, 2016, 10:06:21 pm
I thought Sen. Sanders was very direct and gave really good answers.  I don't like any of his policy proposals, but this was the first time I had been able to directly hear him answer questions without interruption.  I have not listened to or watched a Democratic debate nor did I watch the Iowa Town Hall last week, so I wanted to watch this.  Now, I'm watching and listening carefully to Secy Clinton.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump's temper tantrum about the Iowa results help or hurt him? on: February 03, 2016, 06:57:50 pm
It'll hurt him.  Nothing he did seemed to hurt him in Iowa until the very end.  I don't think New Hampshire voters are as forgiving or as tolerant of the junior high behavior that Trump is displaying.  He may still win, but it will be a lot closer than what the polls are showing.  I wouldn't be surprised at all if he lost especially with 6 days left and him campaigning today in Little Rock, Arkansas of all places.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: And then there were 9, who is next to drop out? on: February 03, 2016, 04:18:24 pm
Carly Fiorina and Jim Gilmore, but not until after New Hampshire.  I have a hunch they will be the last to drop out until after Super Tuesday.  Ben Carson came in a somewhat surprising 4th in Iowa, so I think once he does his laundry he'll be in it at least through South Carolina.  I really think Carson is holding out for South Carolina because of it being a southern, overwhelmingly Christian state.  Nevada is another story.  The only other drop out would be John Kasich if he gets smoked in any of the three remaining states leading up to March 1.  I think Jeb Bush stays in it until after Super Tuesday  and then bows out.
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