These storms are starting to form into a line, which would ordinarily turn it from a tornado threat into a more straight line wind and large hail threat.  However, Reed Timmer is inside these storms and reports developing wind shear.  The winds are easily 50-60 mph if not closer to 70.  The Chopper Pilot, Jon Welsh, who is also surveying these storms from the air denotes increasing wind shear and both are right in line to what the radar is showing.  With the increasing wind shear and the extreme instability, nothing can be ruled out.  We are under a Tornado Watch until 2300.  It still will likely remain a wind and hail threat, but we cannot let our guard down for a spin up in one of these storms especially down near Carnegie.

This forum should have a steel cage, battle royale, loser goes home meteorology match. Snowguy, Bushie, Inks and of course the People's champion Mike Naso.

Don't forget our friend, Frodo!

The storm that is most threatening to Oklahoma City is near Mountain View and has a definite low level lock.  There is a definite wall cloud forming and is rapidly strengthening.  This will at least be enough to keep the hail sizes golf ball to tennis ball into the Metro, which its only an hour or two away.  There is a definite possibility of a Tornado Warning with this storm at some point.  The warnings have advanced one county to the east into Caddo County until 1930.  The next counties to the east are Grady and Canadian, which is the west/southwest Oklahoma City Metro.  The storm is about ready to enter SW Caddo County as we speak.

According to the national news, OKC is already under a tornado warning spanning from northern Texas to Kansas City.

Correction: Tornado Watch

Can I place bets on whether it will rain or not?  Lord knows it will be better than my horse handicapping today.

It'll probably rain, but I'll give Jeff 10:1 odds on a $5 bet that OKC proper doesn't get a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning tonight.

I seriously doubt Oklahoma County will get a tornado warning at this point, but a severe thunderstorm warning is still a definitely possibility.  There is plenty of juice for these storms to push into the Metro at the same intensity.

And how are you seeing these as headed toward OKC?  They're too far west:



Also, there is no high risk for tomorrow; it's only moderate just like today.

Look at the motion.  They're headed toward the Metro and should arrive between 2000-2200 according to Mike Morgan.

The instability is strong enough that they likely will not weaken before they get here.

Jeff, what is an upper level storm?

And how is it that a lack of instability is inhibiting tornado development?

Bad terminology:  It should be Upper-Level Low

Upper-Level Low Definition

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/2/

The instability is extremely high right now, but its just low enough to be inhibiting tornado development.  According to Mike Morgan, the storms should continue to mature as they approach the Metro.  The main threat will be very large hail up to Baseball and Grapefruit possible.  Tomorrow, the severe threat is even worse as Mike Morgan has a high risk bulls-eyed over Oklahoma City.  The low will arrive tomorrow and that will increase the likelihood of strong tornadoes.  Monday, a cold front will approach from the north, and with the low still in place it will trigger another severe weather outbreak basically from the I-44 corridor to the South and East.

I'm done with this conversation.  I don't have time to argue pointless rhetoric.  I've got severe weather to track.

And that's what you say when you know you're wrong.  You don't understand it, and it's dangerous to give advice on storms when you don't understand it.  I had this conversation here instead of on Facebook to save you the embarrassment in front of all your non-forum friends.  What you're doing right now is dangerous.  The major threat right now is the western part of the state, and in a couple hours, if the models hold, 0-6 km shear should increase, but I'd be very surprised if OKC gets a warning, unless some things really change over the next couple hours.

You cannot call me dumb or unknowing.  I know what I'm talking about, and I know how to interpret.  I don't know everything, but I know a lot more than you think I know.  Mike Morgan said himself that the air is juicier in Central Oklahoma than it is out west.  Mike Morgan said himself the air is like gasoline right now.  I am saying nothing that Mike Morgan is not saying himself.

Doesn't Inks actually hold a degree in meteorology? Regardless of whether or not he was "just a baby or not even born" when Bushie started "studying" weather, I would trust the guy who holds a degree in weather stuff over some guy sitting on some couch watching local affiliates weather reports whose degree is like e-commerce.

I trust the guy who lives in Oklahoma for Southern Plains weather.  I trust the guy who lives in Michigan for Great Lakes weather.  I'm not questioning Ink's knowledge, but its not like I'm dumb or don't know anything.

I'm done with this conversation.  I don't have time to argue pointless rhetoric.  I've got severe weather to track.

  Plus, dewpoints are way to high to the east, because there's not enough moisture over there.

huh?

That should be way too low, not way too high.  And I used the wrong "to".  Yikes... that was pretty bad.

http://www.weather.com/weather/today/Will+Rogers+World+Airport+OK+OKC:9:US

Dewpoint is 70.  That's hardly too low.

Ahh, yes, because all storms start at the surface.  Surface observations are all that's important!

No, Jeff, you don't know what you're talking about.  I've never heard of an "upper level storm" that moves in and ignites the gasoline.  I don't know what the heck that means.  You should leave this stuff to people who actually understand it... especially because you're advising others of the weather.

I know what I'm talking about.  Weather is one of my biggest passions.  Don't even attempt to question my knowledge.  I've been studying weather for 25 years.  I will continue to update my blog with the truth of what is going on.  If you don't like it, don't read it.  I'm not talking about Michigan, anyway.

Inks, I have been studying weather for 25+ years since you were either just a baby or not even born, so I know what I'm talking about.  I am watching our NBC affiliate.  Mind you, Oklahoma City has the best meteorologists in the entire world, plus KFOR (NBC) now has Reed Timmer, who needs no introduction.  Mike Morgan on KFOR has been doing the weather for 30+ years and studied under Gary England of KWTV (CBS) who has been doing weather for nearly 40 years.  I am using the exact terms that both of them use day in and day out.

Then you're either misinterpreting them, or your city's meteorologists are idiots.

Stop it! Just, stop it.

Don't you dare call Oklahoma City's meteorologists idiots.  That is not accurate and you know it.  Everybody in the nation should have heard of Gary England.  He doesn't study weather for nearly half a century in the most severe weather prone city in the nation by being an idiot.

I am not misinterpreting them, either.  You must think I am an absolute idiot on pretty much everything.

  Plus, dewpoints are way to high to the east, because there's not enough moisture over there.

huh?

That should be way too low, not way too high.  And I used the wrong "to".  Yikes... that was pretty bad.

http://www.weather.com/weather/today/Will+Rogers+World+Airport+OK+OKC:9:US

Dewpoint is 70.  That's hardly too low.

Inks, I have been studying weather for 25+ years since you were either just a baby or not even born, so I know what I'm talking about.  I am watching our NBC affiliate.  Mind you, Oklahoma City has the best meteorologists in the entire world, plus KFOR (NBC) now has Reed Timmer, who needs no introduction.  Mike Morgan on KFOR has been doing the weather for 30+ years and studied under Gary England of KWTV (CBS) who has been doing weather for nearly 40 years.  I am using the exact terms that both of them use day in and day out.

That was at a computer camp that I worked at in Atlanta in 2008.  I was the Co-Assistant Director of this particular camp.

Bushie you probably only burned anywhere from 200-300 calories over a two day period so don't take your stroll as a license to eat more. Unless you work very hard with exercise, you will have to eat a lot less than you are accustomed.

According to the app, I've burned about 400 calories in the 2.09 miles I have walked since then.  I'm definitely not going to eat more than what I already do.  I'll probably only have one or one and a half helpings of the Enchilada Casserole tonight.

May I ask the forum a question?  Anybody who wants to respond feel free?

Why am I not encouraged to follow my dreams?  Am I somehow not allowed to follow my dreams?  Every time I mention something I hear people constantly saying "it's impossible", "don't try it", "you're wasting your time", "it's a pipe dream", etc.

I have made many mistakes, but it doesn't mean I have no right to pursue my dreams.

Because it's is actually important I'll break my vow of update silence and explain this one for you. (And yeah all these gifs has a specific message I'm trying to make, although admittedly some are so abstract I'm not really expecting anyone get them).

The net symbolizes your goals.

The jumping man is you.

His rolls of fat are your rolls of fat and also symbolizes your numerous habits that are unhealthy for you mentally and physically.

The mat is your dependency on others because you're unable to take care of yourself.

EDIT: And just so we're clear I'll go ahead and connect the dots between these concepts. If you try to keep your eye on the prize without solving the problems that are holding you back you'll fail and nothing will change. Get your day to day life in order before you even think about what your plans will be more than like a year from now. If you can't even motivate yourself to walk around the block how do you think you'll motivate yourself to focus on your education and graduate at the time you're expecting, let alone keep up with all the other things you want to do after that?

What you don't realize, BK, is my life is in order.  I do have things together.  No body believes me, but I seriously do have things together.  I've got my God to fill in the gaps.  One thing I know is certain, the duration of my life will be focused on foreign missions (a very noble and non-egotistical endeavor).  It just remains a question of which capacity do I enter the mission field?  Do I enter through the Peace Corps (which is foreign missions) or do I enter directly through Maisha?  That part, I don't have figured out, yet.  As far as my weight goes, would people please give me a freakin' chance!!!!!  I am going to a Dietitian next Wednesday, but not a single post has been made on that.  Everybody is saying I am doomed and have absolutely no hope.  Where is the encouragement in that?  Give me a chance!!!!

Why should we mention your dietician?  History has shown us that you don't listen to your doctors.  A year ago, you were seeing the new Indian doctor who told you to lose weight, and back then, you vowed to lose weight.  Month after month, you keep telling us you're going to lose weight, yet it hasn't happened.  Why is this time going to be any different?  Sure, you think it's going to be, but the precedent says otherwise.

Precedent may say otherwise, but that means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING about the future.

I wish people would give me a chance before they say I'm hopeless and I will never change and attempt to discourage me from doing something radical.  My dreams don't have to be what everybody else is doing.  I can have radical dreams, and I can achieve them.

Success breeds success.  Failure breeds failure.  It's not just a trend, it's quantum mechanics. 

EDIT:  Also, Jeff, I'm a high school sophomore whose parents forced me to join the high school cross country team despite my complete lack of desire to do it.  But I sucked it up and ran from 6-12 miles(the 12 miles would be spread out over 2 practices) every day.  If I can do that, then you can walk a freaking quarter mile every day.  Come on!  Show a little discipline!  If you don't have the discipline to do extremely easy walking, how could you ever have the discipline to be a missionary at Kenya?   

I have walked the past two days.  I walked 1.29 miles Friday and 0.80 miles today.  I would have walked further today, but my ankle was killing me.  I've got a very busy day on Sunday, so I'll take a break tomorrow and let my ankle rest, and then start again Monday.

Tornado Watch #171 has indeed been issued for Central and Western Oklahoma and Western North Texas until 2300.  Tornado Watch #170 for Western Kansas, Northeastern Colorado, Western Nebraska also until 2300 CDT (2200 MDT).  Watch 171 includes Oklahoma City and Watch 170 includes Wichita, Kansas.

bushie wont approve me as a friend on the fb

His parents might find out he's friends with an atheist. Then, he'd be homeless.

I just approved Walter as a friend.

My parents could care less who I'm friends with, and I could care less if they cared more.

Did he copy and paste the weather report?

Copied and pasted between the blog and my main wall.

I typed it all my own.

Weather.com gives OKC a 10% chance of rain today. Also, watching weather coverage on tv doesn't make one a meteorologist anymore than watching ESPN makes one an athlete.

I had dreams of being a meteorologist as a child, but those are dreams that are not reachable at this point.

I track severe weather all across Oklahoma, not just Oklahoma City.  I even have a blog on my facebook that I update my followers on severe weather conditions across the state, since I have friends everywhere in Oklahoma.  I even cover the panhandle as I have friends who live in Harper County which is just outside the panhandle.

Anyway, I did walk today despite a sore ankle.  My ankle limited me to 0.80 mile in 18:15.  I wanted to go at least another half mile, but my ankle was really hurting and I was starting to limp back to the car.  I then had Subway for lunch before coming home.  It wasn't as far as I wanted to walk, but it was better than sitting on my bottom all day.  I may allow my ankle to rest tomorrow as I'll be super busy most of the day with very little time to walk.  I've got to lead the music tomorrow morning at church, then I'll have a little time in the afternoon, but I'll be tracking severe weather again, then I have the Packing Party from 16:00-17:30, I'm preaching tomorrow night from 18:00-19:15, and then I am helping my cousin get the kids to bed from 19:30-21:30.  Her husband (my Pastor) is now in Haiti on a mission trip for the next week, so I have offered to help put the kids to bed each evening while he's gone.  Putting 6 kids to bed by yourself, I'm sure is not easy.

I slept well, now I'm about to begin the day.  My ankle is sore, so it will be a challenge walking this morning.  We have some big storms that are supposed to move through the next three days.  I'll be glued to the weather all afternoon and evening.  I love these events!  This is what I live for as a wannabe meteorologist.

Good Saturday Morning!  Potentially big severe weather day ahead.  Must get sleep.  Over and out.

I like that post, Patrick, thank you!  I fully realize that there is a "scratch on my vinyl" and I'm stuck in "Groundhog Day".  I am working to fix it.  It will take time, but I am working to fix it.

I do know what I want to do, and you're right, its time to put my eggs in that basket and do everything I possibly can to make it happen.  I'm going to quit making excuses and start living.

All I can say right now is buckle up!

Just try to manage your expectations. I'd love to be the starting first baseman for the NY Mets but you know what I can't hit a lick, wait a minute bad example...but you get the drift. Are your dreams proper, realistic, useful, sustainable?  You recently mentioned architecture of some sort. Rule #1 of building- you have to start with a good foundation. You're a bit shaky right now. You have to fix yourself before you can fix or help others.

I may be mean here sometimes but it is for a purpose and not its own sake.  If you let some rain get in your way then you are being a pussy. Plain and simple. Knock it off you aren't an 80 year old woman who should be scared of getting a chill.

You're exactly right, one must assess their dreams to gauge if they are relevant, realistic, useful, etc.  I have done that with my dreams of foreign missions and the answer to the questions are yes.  I know I'm not prepared right now, but like I said with a little hard work and determination, I can do great things.  I'm trying to do just that right now.

I'm not scared of a little rain, it just helps the plants grow.  For the most part, I welcome the rain.  When I'm having a bad day, sometimes I can bring severe weather as part of that rain, as in what happened at the close of Season VI.  Too much rain can cause flooding.  Sometimes, I like to play in the rain like during that sassy streak I had last week.  You get the picture.

I like that post, Patrick, thank you!  I fully realize that there is a "scratch on my vinyl" and I'm stuck in "Groundhog Day".  I am working to fix it.  It will take time, but I am working to fix it.

I do know what I want to do, and you're right, its time to put my eggs in that basket and do everything I possibly can to make it happen.  I'm going to quit making excuses and start living.

All I can say right now is buckle up!