GOP candidate Thomas Massie's victory in KY-4 was apparently no accident; as much of his victory is being attributed to a Super PAC called Liberty for All. Which was founded by a 21-yr old college student in Texas and is meant to support the beliefs espoused by Ron Paul.

It was a pretty interesting read and makes me wonder if Ron Paul supporters need to be taken more seriously then they are now.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2012/05/money-politics

I'm sure it'll be open season on me for this comments, but Obama is heading for a defeat in November. He reminds me of Bush in '92. A record that can't be run on, and no answer to the basic question of why he should be reelected.

I mean the comparisons exist imo and I wouldn't say he is heading for defeat given that anything can happen. But if I were Obama's reelection team I'd certainly be worried.

RCP just like electoral-vote.com is a pretty good website to check the numbers and know what the status of the races are. However I always avoid RCP's articles.

Your just doing a disservice to yourself then.

Even though the site is ran by a Republican I beg to differ.

It's prob the first site I go to in the morning and the coverage they provide is pretty balanced between pro and anti-coverage overall.

Ex. Here is a snapshot of converge from yesterday afternoon.

The U.S. Economy Slips Below the 'Mendoza Line' - Peter Coy, BusinessWeek
Jobs Slowdown Deals Blow to Obama - Mike Dorning, Bloomberg
Romney Didn't Keep Promises in Massachusetts - Gov. Deval Patrick, CNN
TKO for the Candidate of Hope? - Michael Hirsh, National Journal
Crises Edging Closer in World Without Leadership - Conrad Black, NY Sun
For the Poor, a Clear Choice in November - Valerie Jarrett, Huffington Post
Obama's Class Warfare Is Just Economic Ignorance - The Economist
Why 2012 Is Not 2004 - Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal
"Our Elections Are Being Poisoned" - Andy Kroll, Mother Jones
One Left-Wing Loss After Another in Wisconsin - Joel Pollak, Breitbart
John Edwards: A Cad Gets His Due - Emily Bazelon, Slate

Again pretty cool!

You know what? When I was about 27, my aunt told me that I'm 1/32 Cherokee. I've never seen any paperwork that proves it, but I believe her.

So if I say I'm 1/32 Cherokee, does that mean I'm "lying" just because I haven't seen the documentation?

No but it doesn't mean you have the right to go around calling yourself a Native American.

The GOP "wastes" a lot of states as well. With places like WV, AR, KY on their way to becoming 60-40 GOP and the margins throughout the interior west and south give the GOP just as many wasted votes or more as the Dems get in Cali, NY, Illinois

What do you mean? Explain?

Obama's advantage is that he is an incumbent who has been fortified with a strong national organization and loads of money; alot of which exists from 2008.

I bed to differ on the "he is doing better in swing states" part. The only reason he is ahead in many swing states like NV, CO, OH, etc is due to the fact that his opponent is still an unknown quality to voters/hasn't built himself up at the present time; to chip into Obama's state by state polling advantage. As summer goes on things will continue to tighten dramatically both nationally and in the swing states.

This is a good summary. As a somewhat popular incumbent, of course Obama has an advantage. It's also worth pointing out that this "advantage" could fade away or grow stronger. I fail to see how anyone could make a successful argument for Romney having a "built-in" electoral college advantage.

Well I wouldn't say Obama's even "somewhat popular" since on the whole he is really not. However, you don't need to be popular to win reelection(see GW 2004) or (Truman 47) if you want an example of this.

Your right in saying the advantage could grow. although with the way the economy is trending that's unlikely at the moment IMO. If it cont. to stabilize or experiences a strong sudden upswing over the summer that could also change.

The one advantage I see Romney having electorally is that the sweeping Obama win in 2008 that brought in such solidly GOP/Republican leaning states like IN, NC, and maybe NH/VA/FL will not be reduplicated in my opinion. I honestly think that this election will come down like it has in 2004/2008 to states like OH, PA, MI, WI, IA, and NV/CO. If ether candidate can win a combination of those then they have won the Presidency. As I think given the situation he is facing Obama is not likely to win the states that he won in 2008 like VA, NC, IN, or FL despite whatever the polls may say as a repeat of what I said above. Let is he going to win places like AZ, MO, or GA, which some on here have been speculating that he could do.

Obama's advantage is that he is an incumbent who has been fortified with a strong national organization and loads of money; alot of which exists from 2008.

I bed to differ on the "he is doing better in swing states" part. The only reason he is ahead in many swing states like NV, CO, OH, etc is due to the fact that his opponent is still an unknown quality to voters/hasn't built himself up at the present time; to chip into Obama's state by state polling advantage. As summer goes on things will continue to tighten dramatically both nationally and in the swing states.

Nah.  This isn't real torture.  Real torture would use Barney or Teletubbies rather than Sesame Street.

Real Torture would be having them read this forum. Esp. some of the predictions in the 2012 election section.

Yeah, Ras polls are viewed as accurate pretty much elsewhere except this site.

538 and electoralvote.com would like to disagree with you. They had a 3/4 point bias in favor of Republican candidates in 2010. We have to see if he's fixed his issue.

Like electoralvote.com is actually accurate(Their predictions for 2004, 2006, and 08 were all way off). Plus if my memory serves me correct they use Zogby's outfit as their source.

Rasmussen has been very consistent with other pollsters in Ohio, showing Obama with a moderate lead. It's certainly good news for Romney that he's now tied here.

There's usually not much joking at Rasmussen's reputation the many times his polling is consistent with others (which normally are). It's just whenever he shows Romney leading in a swing state.

Also, I'd hardly call Obama's small leads in Ohio "crushing".

Yeah, Ras polls are viewed as accurate pretty much elsewhere except this site.

Big fan of the Boston teams!

This appears to be an outlier.  I bet Ras polls this sometime within the next 2-3 weeks.

Obama isn't not winning MO, not even gonna come close.

It's not that much of an outlier. In view of a recent poll that showed Tennessee coming within 7% of a tie and Missouri and Tennessee having a large number of the voters that I might expect President Obama to make gains among in 2012 (the Clinton-but-not-Obama voters of 2008) I can easily imagine President Obama winning Missouri.  

At this point I see no reason to believe that President Obama will win the 2012 election with results in the percentage of total vote or the loss or gain of any state that he won or lost by more than 4% in 2008 with the possible exception of Arizona (and that only because of the reversal of the Favorite Son effect).

Missouri will be close, as will be Arizona, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, and one of the Congressional districts of Nebraska.

Who knows? Maybe he will get some credit for handling the aftermath of some tornadoes very well. Those tornadoes struck parts of Missouri in which President Obama did badly in 2008. When it comes to dealing with natural disasters he isn't quite like his predecessor.

I think this speaks better for McCaskill than Obama.

If Senator McCaskill wins Missouri and the President barely loses Missouri, then the President has still won.  

LOL!

[New England/ Northeast]

What schools should I visit this summer? I'll have two trips. My cousin is getting married outside of Boston so I'll be able to do New England colleges in late June, early July.

Then in mid-July my dad is going to Williamsburg for the NGA meeting so I'll be able to attend that and then see Virginia and D.C. schools.

There are other schools I want to see and won't and some I will definitely go to like Harvard, Georgetown, and UVA (in green).

What do you think are the most worthwhile visiting for a half day or a day?

New England/ Northeast
Yale
Harvard
Princeton
Tufts
Brown
MIT*
Dartmouth- Not too excited about this and since it is way up in New Hampshire/Vermont, I'm not sure it is worth it
Boston College
Columbia
NYC

Mid-atlantic
Georgetown
UVA
William & Mary
George Washington
U Richmond
American
Johns Hopkins
Washington & Lee

*I may not apply to MIT due to the science SAT subject test requirement. I don't know yet if that is only for math and science majors or all students applying.

Keep in mind I want to go into International Relations or Political Science, or that realm of learning.

FYI next to the DC schools MIT has one of the best IR programs in the country-keep that in mind.

Also besides UVA & W&M have you considered any other state schools? George Mason has an excellent Poli sci/Econ program, it's very up & coming, if still a bit of a commuter school.

The problem with MIT is that it requires a SAT subject test in chem, bio, or physics, which I would do poorly at as well as math. I got a 660 on Math I but I've been out of geometry for a long time and forgot how to do too much. So I'll take Math II in the fall which will hopefully be a much higher score. So this is my one hurdle for MIT. I figure if I take chem or physics and do poorly they'll still see I'm not going into math or science at all. However, I don't want to have to disclose that bad science score to other schools if they require the release of all SAT subject tests. So if no school I'm looking at requires me to hand over every SAT subject test score then I'll probably do that and apply.

Again you mentioned you were trying to determine whether the SAT II test scores were mandatory or only for math/science subjects-have you found an answer yet? If yes I'd still apply anyways since you never know what you will end up with. Most college's out there(including many of the very selective one's) don't require you to send in Subject test scores at least in my own experience. Additionally, when I went through the whole college admissions process you could select which schools saw your SAT II subject test scores and which wouldn't.

So with all that said my bottom line is that it's worth a shot and there is no harming in any of this.

[New England/ Northeast]

What schools should I visit this summer? I'll have two trips. My cousin is getting married outside of Boston so I'll be able to do New England colleges in late June, early July.

Then in mid-July my dad is going to Williamsburg for the NGA meeting so I'll be able to attend that and then see Virginia and D.C. schools.

There are other schools I want to see and won't and some I will definitely go to like Harvard, Georgetown, and UVA (in green).

What do you think are the most worthwhile visiting for a half day or a day?

New England/ Northeast
Yale
Harvard
Princeton
Tufts
Brown
MIT*
Dartmouth- Not too excited about this and since it is way up in New Hampshire/Vermont, I'm not sure it is worth it
Boston College
Columbia
NYC

Mid-atlantic
Georgetown
UVA
William & Mary
George Washington
U Richmond
American
Johns Hopkins
Washington & Lee

*I may not apply to MIT due to the science SAT subject test requirement. I don't know yet if that is only for math and science majors or all students applying.

Keep in mind I want to go into International Relations or Political Science, or that realm of learning.

FYI next to the DC schools MIT has one of the best IR programs in the country-keep that in mind.

Also besides UVA & W&M have you considered any other state schools? George Mason has an excellent Poli sci/Econ program, it's very up & coming, if still a bit of a commuter school.

He should have been primaried long ago.

It's been tried a couple of times.

Marion Barr to Ward 8 is like how Robert Byrd was to WV; he is viewed as someone who delivers for those he represents. He is beloved by the residents there and they will support him to the end whether is right or wrong.

Well that and they probably agree with his racist views.

The older ones (remember, Barry is in his 70s)? Yeah, probably. The younger ones aren't likely to agree with him though, since their experiences in race and ethnicity are completely different than 40 or 50 years ago.

I dare you to come to DC and visit a place like Ward 8 for a few days; see if the view's of the younger generation living there has changed any.

Hint-Ward 8 is the most economically deprived and crime ridden part of the city. Education here makes the public school system in a place like Mississippi look great.

He should have been primaried long ago.

It's been tried a couple of times.

Marion Barr to Ward 8 is like how Robert Byrd was to WV; he is viewed as someone who delivers for those he represents. He is beloved by the residents there and they will support him to the end whether is right or wrong.

This -also, as a Mississippi Delta native who came straight up out of poverty himself, Barry has long been looked down upon by the black elite within the city.  As an outsider and as a civil rights activist, he has endeared himself to the black working- and under-classes.  They will forever be loyal to him no matter what he says or does.   

Exactly

I don't think he'd get out of a Republican primary for any office he ran for, I don't think Virginia Republicans would pick a party switching, carpetbagger over a local.

Gerry Connally is originally from Massachusetts, but other than that I agree with you.  

Alot of VA politicians from both parties including our current governor are from elsewhere in the country(McDonnell is originally from PA). However, they all share the commonality of having started their political lives in Virginia.

I say at around 10:30 PM 52-44% for Romney.

The reasons I say this is that although the recession isn't as severe in much of the state(esp. NOVA). Along with the fact that Obama has a strong organization here in the state. The forumites saying that VA is going to go solidly for Obama etc. Aren't distinguishing where and for what these factors like government spending ect is coming from. And are conveniently forgetting the recent trends and election outcomes throughout Virginia since 2009.

In terms of NOVA and government spending. The reasons why Obama did so well here in 2008 were due to a mixture of events like Bush fatigue/the economic meltdown, an inept campaign by the GOP etc. Although, I do lament that changing demographics did contribute to Obama's win here. Another important aspect contributing to Obama's victory was the moderate Democrat/DLC types like Warner, and Kaine(who was still popular at the time) who helped built the Democratic network in VA.

However, since then it's been largely downhill for the Democrats since then. Bob McDonnell defeated Creigh Deeds(who had very heavy WH backing in 2009), the Dem's lost 3 House seats here in 2010 and almost lost a 4 in what should have been a safe D district given it's previous numbers. Also, the Democrats suffered a beating lost NOV in legislative and local elections throughout the state(incl. NOVA). Lastly many parts of the VA Democratic Party are going through a stage of infighting and scandals at the current time.

What's more since the Democrats on here are sooo certain that Obama will win due to the government workers they are failing to notice who and what part of the government these voters are working for. Most of them work for government departments & agencies like the DoD, CIA, NSA, the various Armed forces depts like the Army, Navy, etc if not active military themselves. NOVA has ton's of high-ranking military officers, NCO's, and retired military as well. The same goes for much of the rest of the state too. Now with the President and Congressional Democrats being highly supportive of defense cuts do you really think these type of people are going to support the president/party that wants to do away with the resources and jobs that they have?

This is what I stand by and I think Romney may very well(the same case in other states too)be under polling in VA at the present time and I can guarantee Obama's lead will be erased here sooner or later.

As a disclaimer to those who may respond harshly I live in NOVA and in a county that went to Obama 52-44% in 2008 and hasn't treated the Dem's on any level well since.

Walker by 3-5+% but I wouldn't be surprised if Barrett won given that Democrats seem to do better in close WI elections then the Republicans.

Interesting Quote!

Maryland is solid D at this point. Republicans haven't carried Maryland since the 1988 Presidential Election of George H.W. Bush. It was one of Bill Clinton's best states in both of his Presidential Election Wins. It was also one of Jimmy Carter's 6 states that he carried in the 1980 Presidential Election when he lost to Reagan.

"at this point"...?  Maryland's been a solid D for decades.  The recent demographic landslide that has hit the state cements that.  People forget that Maryland's the fourth blackest state in the country.  Maryland is 43% VAP minority the vast majority of which is blacks.  Interestingly the white population of Maryland has grown very conservative.  McCain won Maryland whites by 2% and I bet Bush won them by 6 or 7 in 2004

I wouldn't say McCain winning whites by 2% in Maryland when he won whites by 12% nationwide = very conservative.

Now, the rural less educated whites in western MD and along the eastern shore would fit that bill, the suburban well educated whites, not so much....

I also find that surprising considering that the majority of white voters in the the Washington suburb's tilt heavily Democratic. I.e just look at the results in places like Rockville, Chevy Chase, and Columbia if you want to see an indication of that.

 I can't really say for Baltimore suburbs which share similar demographics, which is more split but the Democrat's have an edge amongst white voters there too.

WI at the moment's going to be close but Romney can certainly win it. Alot IMO depends on if and by how much Walker win's the recall.

Was he banned? I haven't been following.

If he was the more left-wing members of this forum have said far more egregious things and have faced little overall punishment in comparison to anything Jmcfst could have said. Which could go to show the double-standards and bullying of Republican members that occurs on the Atlas Forum.