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October 31, 2014, 05:19:52 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas Forum IRC Channel, Thread 2 on: Today at 04:56:37 pm
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KY Senate Race 2014: Getting lucky in Kentucky on: Today at 04:13:13 pm
Republicans are mailing official seeming letters with "ELECTION VIOLATING NOTICE" that are of course attacking Grimes. Kentycky Republican party and McConnell campaign = total scumbags.



http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/10/31/1340676/-McConnell-s-Kentucky-GOP-threatens-Grimes-voters-with-fraud-charges-just-for-listening-to-Grimes


Obviously sketchy as hell, but that's actually a great idea, tbh.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Senate takeover = good for Hillary? on: Today at 04:09:14 pm
Regarding the OP:

Who cares?  The country will be worse off!
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rick Weiland implodes, accuses DSCC of sabotaging his campaign on: Today at 03:58:06 pm
You know something? Other websites are saying this is a very bold move by Weiland. Why all the Debbie Downerism here?

Which is worse: Rounds's scandal, or this?

Probably because Weiland is going to cost us this seat and should have dropped out when Pressler started surging, or better yet, never ran in the first place.

Pressler is overrated. Orman is a much better candidate.

No offense or anything, but what's your point?  What matters is that Pressler could've won a head-to-head with Rounds while Weiland has shown he couldn't beat a bowl of tomato soup.  Given that Pressler would've caucus with the Democrats and voted well to the left of his state, who cares whether he's stronger or weaker than Orman?  Pressler may be somewhat weaker than Orman, but Weiland is about fifty times weaker than Chad Taylor Tongue

Pressler's residency issues doomed him.

If you're arguing Pressler couldn't win a head-to-head with Rounds, while I disagree, it's certainly not an unreasonable position.  If you're arguing that Pressler couldn't win a head-to-head with Rounds, but Weiland could...well...that's a rather questionable claim at best.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: UT-04: Dan Jones poll confirms close race on: Today at 03:52:05 pm
I'm mixed about this race because while I want Owens to win, if he does, it's gonna be for a pretty awful reason.
6  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Game Moderation Abolition Amendment (Debating) on: Today at 03:49:03 pm
I'm just a citizen like Barnes, but I'd just like to say that I think this amendment is both a good idea and probably overdue.  It has become increasingly clear that as much as we may wish it weren't the case, GM is essentially a deadweight position.  Honestly, I don't see what the game would lose from the position's abolition at this point.
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Simple Truths Silver Mine on: Today at 03:13:32 pm
People always complain about politicians not telling the truth, but whenever one actually does it, people turn around and flip out.

Landrieu didn't even say what the thread title says. This is such dishonesty.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rick Weiland implodes, accuses DSCC of sabotaging his campaign on: Today at 01:45:37 pm
Weiland is actually a stronger candidate than Pressler, if Pressler's utter collapse is any evidence. I think, for sure, Pressler would've been a better Senator, but he was just a couple of points behind Rounds before falling to 19%.

Because *both* parties simultaneously nuked him and he had no money for a large ad buy to counter the two-pronged onslaught.  If the Democrats had just completely cut Weiland lose and gotten 100% behind Pressler when that one SurveyUSA poll came out in early October and spent money both attacking Rounds and boosting Pressler, we'd likely be looking at a very different race.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread on: Today at 01:42:00 pm
Is this really a testing or are these numbers the results of the early vote? I noticed that the numbers change all the time. http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/

Tom Corbett is only losing by .08% so I'm pretty sure it's just a test Tongue
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rick Weiland implodes, accuses DSCC of sabotaging his campaign on: Today at 01:39:19 pm
You know something? Other websites are saying this is a very bold move by Weiland. Why all the Debbie Downerism here?

Which is worse: Rounds's scandal, or this?

Probably because Weiland is going to cost us this seat and should have dropped out when Pressler started surging, or better yet, never ran in the first place.

Pressler is overrated. Orman is a much better candidate.

No offense or anything, but what's your point?  What matters is that Pressler could've won a head-to-head with Rounds while Weiland has shown he couldn't beat a bowl of tomato soup.  Given that Pressler would've caucus with the Democrats and voted well to the left of his state, who cares whether he's stronger or weaker than Orman?  Pressler may be somewhat weaker than Orman, but Weiland is about fifty times weaker than Chad Taylor Tongue
11  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The t_host1 Institute of Comedy on: October 30, 2014, 09:27:15 pm
Context:

With these kind of people on her side, Hillary can't possibly lose.
12  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: The Office of President-Elect Lumine (Cabinet Time!) on: October 30, 2014, 08:16:12 pm
I agree with Griffin. As long we have a GM, he or she ought to be active. Maybe no one else is willing to serve, but the position has been functionally vacant for over a month. I hope that this will be resolved soon.

Yeah, we essentially have been without a GM for a while now.
13  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Goin' Boatin' (Or: The Birth of a Nation) on: October 30, 2014, 08:10:37 pm
I'm Jewish, am I still allowed to join you guys on this adventure? Tongue

Another question: Can I maintain duel Atlasian-Papel Boats citizenship?
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Can't we just have one thread for Election Night results? on: October 30, 2014, 08:05:32 pm
This is what we did in 2010 and it worked fine, and it's what we planned to do in 2012, though Atlas was down on Election Night. Having a gazillion threads will be very inconvenient and will necessitate having a gazillion inconvenient tabs open. Maybe we could have separate Senate and House threads, but I don't think things should be broken up any further than that.

Yeah, splitting it up like this will just be a mess Sad
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Why Polls Tend to Undercount Democrats on: October 30, 2014, 03:20:58 pm
So, basically, Ken Buck?

Next time, try reading the article.

Also this:
I'll believe it when I see it.
16  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Hubert Humphrey on: October 30, 2014, 03:09:44 pm
Both Tongue
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC; PPP: Hagan only up one on: October 30, 2014, 02:59:37 pm
The supposition that PPP polls for the LCV are bias in any way has no basis in fact.
18  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: 2014 October Presidential elections, political winner on: October 30, 2014, 02:10:48 pm
Labor gave us the most disastrous presidency in Atlasian history - and, let me be clear, I blame the festering hand of the Politburo more than DemPGH for everything that's gone wrong over the past four months - and suffered almost no electoral consequences. (Yes, even the presidential election - Labor has a natural disadvantage in presidential elections, and was never a favorite to win in October.) If that's not proof of political genius, I have no idea what is.

Well that's just ridiculous. The Politburo operated the very same as it did during your presidency and Marokai's presidency. The previous administration simply was...prone to bad decisions. Personally, I advised against both the resignation of windjammer (which ultimately triggered a cataclysm of events and consequences no one could foresee), against making sirnick GM (expecting bad behavior), and a couple other specific ones I forget at the moment.

Though perhaps a different handling of things was needed; you know first-hand that I practically never asked any Senator to vote a given way on a piece of legislation, and in two year's time, I can count on less than one hand the number of times I ever lost my temper over a Senator's vote. I regret not exerting more control over the caucus during the energy debate, even though I did grow disappointed when I saw our caucus fracturing on it after those who had offered no discussion whatsoever suddenly decided to chime in at the end. The difference between having effectively four members of your own party in the Senate during a term (which was what you really had) versus five members (which is what DemPGH had) makes a world of difference in how one acts as President; you were in less of a position to make bad decisions not because you are incapable of them, but because you didn't have the ability at the time to make them. Between Napoleon, Polnut and the right, you were quite constrained. I wonder if things would have been different had you not called Kalwejt "fycking useless" in IRC (something that for some reason, he still seems to hate me for)?

I don't want to re-litigate DemPGH's presidency, but I should clarify a few points:

1. I also advised against the Sirnick nomination and was the sole Senator to vote against his re-confirmation. You know that there's no disagreement between us on this. I wish that you had applied the same skepticism to the disastrous Hifly nomination.

2. Accepting Windjammer's resignation was probably the single best decision of DemPGH's presidency. (Those of us who were closest to the situation understand why.) Tyrion's first confirmation was never destined to fail, and would have passed easily had the White House been willing to work with a single non-Labor Senator.

I urged DemPGH to build alliances outside of the Labor Party throughout his presidency, even before leaving the party myself. You simply cannot be a successful president without those relationships, even if you have a slim majority in the Senate. Unfortunately, this never happened, and, yes, I blame the Politburo for creating a paranoid and intolerant atmosphere in which collaboration with those outside of the party was impossible.

3. Do you really want to revisit the energy nationalization bill? How you can look back at that debacle and decide that your greatest failure was not controlling Labor's Senators is beyond my understanding.

4. I have said far, far worse things than that on the IRC, but I'm not sure what that that has to do with anything.

FTR, I never made the first quoted post, that was by Nix Tongue
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: Democrats: Would losing seats in bluish states bother you "that much?" on: October 30, 2014, 12:01:18 pm
Yes because it can allow psuedo-moderate Republicans to get entrenched in seats that would otherwise generally be safe/likely/lean D.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-PPP: TIED RACE on: October 30, 2014, 11:57:33 am
Excellent news!
21  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: 2014 October Presidential elections, political winner on: October 30, 2014, 10:28:36 am
Even with one of the disasterous presidency of DemPGH and low(er than normal) approval ratings, still managed to gain a seat in the senate in the Mideast.

In fairness, Windjammer winning the Mideast Senate seat was largely due to pretty blatant strategic registration and the Federalist Party's bizarre failure to say a word about it while it was occurring Tongue
22  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: 1952 Primaries on: October 30, 2014, 06:57:23 am
Warren/Truman
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: How many counties will Larry Pressler win? on: October 29, 2014, 05:07:32 pm
Mathematically speaking, is it possible for a candidate who comes in second in every county to win a statewide election with the other two candidates flipping between 1st and 3rd place?

Yes
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Palin may run in 2016 on: October 29, 2014, 05:04:32 pm
Who?
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: SC - Ervin (I) drops out endorses Sheheen (D) on: October 29, 2014, 04:35:48 pm
http://www.thestate.com/2014/10/28/3773874/ervin-drops-out-of-governors-race.html

I just don't get it.  Haley's going to win anyway.  Ervin did about as well as one could reasonably expect of a third party candidate where neither major party candidate was stuck with a scandal or the like.  Other than making a total fool out of himself, I don't see what Ervin accomplished by dropping out less than a week before the election.

As for his suggestion that his supporters switch to Sheheen, as far as I'm concerned fuhgeddaboudit.  It baffled me that the Dems in this state thought Sheheen would have any chance in a rematch with Haley, he ran a poor campaign in 2010 and he didn't noticeably improve.  Of the other two candidates, French (L) and Reeves (United Citizens) they both have run typically quirky third party campaigns, but their main issues aren't ones that I consider a priority, and French is just too libertarian for me to consider unless I desperately needed to make a protest vote, but I don't feel that need this year.  And so, I regretfully have to conclude that of the schmucks still running for governor, the one who would be most likely to get what I want done done is... Haley.  Hopefully we'll get a better governor than Nikki in 2018.  Almost certainly the Democrats will field a better candidate than Vincent in 2018.  But for 2014, with Ervin dropping out, I'm shifting my support to Haley.

How'd Sheheen come so close in 2010 if he ran such an awful campaign?

Haley was a relatively unknown young State Representative who had been closely associated politically with Mark Sanford.  His trip down the Appalachian Trail almost did in Haley even tho she had absolutely nothing to do with it.  If it hadn't been for Sanford's indiscretion, Haley easily would have gotten 55-43 instead of the 51-47 result she did get.

Fair enough
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