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August 29, 2016, 09:20:53 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Pokemon Go is starting to look like a flop on: August 28, 2016, 12:51:58 pm
Is this a surprise?  I thought the consensus was that it was a fad with no more than six weeks staying power, if that.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Missouri Farm Bureau Endorses Koster on: August 28, 2016, 12:46:43 pm
All of the Koster for Governor signs on farms all across Missouri are a beautiful sight when making your way through rural Missouri.

Yes.. I saw last weekend. So lovely.

I think Russ Carnahan wins Lt. Governor. We should hold on to SoS but Treasuer and Secretary of State may ne a struggle. What do you think?

Really?  Russ Carnahan always struck me as a pretty weak candidate.  I think SoS is gone, btw.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win PA-9 General? on: August 28, 2016, 12:42:18 pm
I have a question: what type of Democrat you must be to vote for ultra-right Halvorson in primary? Is this area full of James Eastland-type southern Dixiecrats, despite being in Pennsylvania???)))))

You just have to be upset about Shuster using his position to give favors to his lobbyist girlfriend. Not all elections necessarily have to be about ideology, especially for lower-level positions like this.

Yeah, for whatever reason that scandal has had real staying power in this district.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WI-08: Gallagher has a 16-point lead over Nelson (Public Opinion Strategies) on: August 28, 2016, 12:40:20 pm
The presidential section of this poll has Trump doing as well as Romney, which is obviously bogus. I would still say this is Tossup/Tilt R (or even Leans R), since the local Republicans are very distanced from Trump, Gallagher is a good candidate, and the area is still pretty Republican downballot. (Gallagher running 13 points ahead of Trump, being up 16 if Trump is up 3, could very well be legit, on the other hand). If this district flips, Republicans are probably having a bad night.

Gallagher isn't a bad candidate per say, but I wouldn't call him a top-tier recruit.  The Democrats recruited an excellent candidate who is also from the right part of the district (and probably has higher name ID given that prior to serving as Outagamie County Executive, he'd been the State Assembly Majority leader and the LG nominee in 2010).  Nelson also won his current position by beating a Republican who had served as State Treasurer from 1995-2007, so he's definitely battle-tested.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WI-08: Gallagher has a 16-point lead over Nelson (Public Opinion Strategies) on: August 27, 2016, 04:35:40 pm
Nah, this is tossup tilt-D.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IA-01: Blum up 7 in his internal on: August 26, 2016, 01:51:30 pm
This is an internal, so take with a grain of salt, but Rod Blum leads his challenger 50-43 in this poll.

Blum: 50
Vernon: 43
Undecided: 7

https://www.scribd.com/mobile/document/322089272/Iowa-1st-Congressional-District-Race-Polling-Memo-8-26-16#fullscreen&from_embed

This is the second Blum internal I've seen (the other was from early April), and both had him up. This race will be competitive.

Nah, Blum's toast.  I'd be surprised if he keeps it in single-digits.
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which posters do you have on ignore? on: August 25, 2016, 09:26:07 pm
I had smoltchanov on ignore for a while because I just couldn't take it anymore.

Me too, but I took him off eventually.  Anyway:

© tweed
HokeyPuck
WalterMitty
CARLHAYDEN
Horus
mypalfish
Boris
memphis
Politico
DS0816
RosettaStoned
President Hillary Clinton
retromike22
5280
National Progressive
nhmagic
t_host1
BigSkyBob
Asian Nazi
Solopop
dirks
Famous Mortimer
Sen. Altsomn Stmarken (Fed-SD)
TTS1996
CnstutnlCnsrvatv
bronz4141
Meursault
Murica!
#TheShadowyAbyss
Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why has the shakeup resulted in a more moderate approach? on: August 24, 2016, 10:13:27 pm
It hasn't
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Former FNC host sues; claims sexual harassment by Ailes, O'Reilly, Scott Brown on: August 24, 2016, 06:51:45 pm
To think these people wanted Bill Clinton's head on a platter because of a blowjob.
I don't get what Bill Clinton has to do with this. I would agree with you though if Bill Clinton wasn't married to Hillary in 1998 who would care about a blowjob that he was getting at the White House but he is/was married to Hillary.

I mean, I'd care that the most powerful man in the world was in a sexual relationship with an intern decades younger than him.

The power dynamics are icky, though I don't think that's what the pro-impeachment crowd was concerned about.

True, but he still should've been impeached and certainly would've been if it happened today.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Should Hillary renominate Garland on: August 24, 2016, 06:49:19 pm
No (sane)
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-19: Dan Bongino explodes during recorded call with reporter on: August 24, 2016, 06:45:05 pm
In fairness, the reporter was also being a dick.  They both come across as awful manchildren.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA/OH-CBS/YouGov: Grassley & Portman both +7 on: August 24, 2016, 06:44:00 pm
These races are starting to make more sense. Grassely being way up and Portman being slightly down early on always puzzled me. Looks like the name recognition game helped Strickland early, and after people payed attention for a few months, Portman's numbers went up. With Grassely, I thought lack of ticket splitting in modern politics was going to hurt him, and it is.

They will both lose because split ticket voting doesn't exist anymore. /hacks

But in all seriousness, Portman is probably running the best campaign of any Republican Senator this year. Strickland's record as governor is pretty terrbile, but there is no other Democrat in Ohio who could have made this competitive IMO. Still, the fact that Strickland is struggling so much in a presidential year doesn't bode well for Sherrod Brown in 2018.

Strickland's not an incumbent while Brown is.  I'm not saying that Brown won't be in trouble, but comparing this race to Browns is comparing apples to oranges.
Well, Strickland is basically a generic D with statewide name recognition. Portman is not a generic R and has been doing really well with campaigning and presenting himself to voters. Brown, on the other hand is an unapologetic liberal who, despite representing an R+1 state, legislates like its a D+15 state. Even Mandel would win in a neutral year, assuming Scott Rupert doesn't run. He is not as bad as the red avatars paint him, though since he didn't endorse Kasich, I imagine Kasich and Friends will back someone else (Tiberi, Stivers, Husted, etc.) in the primary.

What is he then?
He is a maverick on SSM and clean energy research. He also over performed Kasich in 2010, and has picked up the endorsement of the Teamsters Union. He is also very decorated (former Trade Rep. and OMB Director, though that may be a liability this year). I do not consider him a generic Republican.

Most Ohioans consider him generic R Tongue
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Would Sittenfield be doing better than Strickland? on: August 24, 2016, 06:40:14 pm
wow, why is everyone so anti sittenfield? We need some fresh blood in the dem party stop pushing these dinosaurs. Portman success is due to him running a good campaign and the infrastructure OH republicans have.

Because Sittenfield would've gotten crushed.
14  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Any game of throne games? on: August 24, 2016, 05:56:44 pm
I know Lumine was gonna do one at some point down the road (or at least was planning to, last I heard).  We've had four so far.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Would Sittenfield be doing better than Strickland? on: August 24, 2016, 05:48:51 pm
If Sittenfeld was a good candidate he'd have beaten Strickland in the primary.

*snip* I see this as a testament to Portman's strengths rather than Strickland's weaknesses.

It's really has nothing to do with Portman.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump Campaign Manager's History of Anti-Catholic Rhetoric on: August 23, 2016, 09:30:44 pm
I'm a very very very devout Catholic, I don't find this offensive at all.

Yeah, but you're also kind of a moron.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Would Sittenfield be doing better than Strickland? on: August 23, 2016, 07:12:22 pm
No, I doubt it. Portman's just not as vulnerable as people thought. I'm not even sure Tim Ryan could have taken him down.

Yes he was, Strickland simply blew it.

Just curious, but what's going on in-state/how is he a bad candidate? I haven't picked up much other than the fact that he is, but I'm 1/3 of the way across the country.

He's going a bit senile and saying a lot of stupid stuff, he's had weak fundraising, and he's been doing a lot of pretty transparent anti-Asian race-baiting.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Would Sittenfield be doing better than Strickland? on: August 23, 2016, 06:14:24 pm
No, I doubt it. Portman's just not as vulnerable as people thought. I'm not even sure Tim Ryan could have taken him down.

Yes he was, Strickland simply blew it.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Would Sittenfield be doing better than Strickland? on: August 23, 2016, 02:55:02 pm
ROTFLMFAO

No, Sittenfield would get like 38% at best.  Strickland will probably lose, but it'll still be by something like 53-47%.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Gary Johnson polling so well but Stein is at 1-2%? on: August 23, 2016, 06:51:03 am
Gary Johnson is a credible candidate, Jill Stein is a far left kook. Plus Johnson has gotten a lot more exposure and the Green Party has a smaller base and is seen as a one issue party.
Exactly. Johnson, by running as a John Anderson-esque low tax liberal, has been able to gobble up these votes. Stein stands for everything Bernie does, but she doesn't have the political record to stand on, nor the exposure.

Lol, Johnson is not running as a liberal by any stretch of the imagination.  He's a generic 90s establishment has-been with a few random issues where he diverges which makes him a passable protest vote for many #NeverTrump Republicans.  Stein is a crazy person who doesn't even reflect the beliefs of most Sanders supporters.  Plus, most Sanders voters' love of country/fear of Trump outweighs their dislike of Hillary.
21  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Trump is one of the reasons why I didn't support Obama in the '08 on: August 22, 2016, 06:42:35 pm
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Hillary loses, will she claim sexism as a reason for it? on: August 21, 2016, 06:45:40 pm
Hillary's main problem isn't that she's a woman but that she's not a very likeable woman. Unlikeable women tend to struggle more than unlikeable men unless they are political geniuses. And Hillary isn't a political genius but Thatcher, another unlikeable woman, was.

Moderate Heroish answer I know.

This
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA/OH-CBS/YouGov: Grassley & Portman both +7 on: August 21, 2016, 02:06:03 pm
I don't think this is all because of Strickland. Portman's not exactly unpopular, and he's a relatively inoffensive senator. I always had a hard time believing that he was in as much trouble as earlier polls suggested. I initially thought he'd be less vulnerable than Toomey or Rubio, and it looks like I was probably right about that. Strickland's not totally done yet, but this race is at at least Lean R, by this point.

It has nothing to do with Portman (who isn't very entrenched).  Strickland has run an awful campaign, he'll still do much better than Sittenfield would've though.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Newspaper Endorsement Thread on: August 21, 2016, 02:01:49 pm
The Columbus Disgrace will probably endorse Trump.

I seriously wonder. I think the Dispatch will go "no endorsement". It'll never back Hillary , but is too close to Kasich and respectable to go for Trump.

I guess I could see them going "No Endorsement," but I think they'll end up sticking with Trump.  They're simply that partisan.  It'll be a hilariously unenthusiastic "endorsement" though.
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Happy birthday Kalwejt! on: August 20, 2016, 10:25:42 pm
I'm real late, but happy birthday!
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