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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: If Tim Kaine is selected as Hillary's VP and they win in November... on: Today at 05:52:36 pm
Assuming they lose the Senate this year, Republicans don't even need VA in 2018 to win back the Senate then. Someone like Barbara Comstock could win, but I'd rate this race Tilt D for now.
Republicans can win 10 seats in 2018 assuming Clinton wins (which is likely),
I'm sure they will screw up some races because this is the Republicans so they will end up picking up from 6 to 9 seats, 8 would be my guess right now.

lol
Great analysis!

I mean this with all due respect (and not in the a**hole way people say that on C-Span, I really don't mean this as an insult or anything, even though it may sound a bit harsh), the idea that we know anything about what 2018 will look like right now (much less, that a particular party will gain 6-10 seats) is beyond ridiculous.  "Lol" was exactly the response that the post warranted.  I don't mean to single you out Windjammer because you're actually a pretty good poster, but folks on this forum really need to stop trying to make predictions like this when we're not even through the current election cycle.
Well, if Hillary Clinton wins in 2016 (which seems to be likely), I don't see how 2018 could end up being a favourable year for the democrats. Midterms are most of the time bad for the incumbent party, they were bad for the GOP in 2006 and they were bad for the democratic party in 2010 and 2014.
Considering the democrats will have many many seats to defend, many of them in clearly republican states, I really believe that the democrats are going to lose many seats.
I know it may seem a bit early, but this is a political forum and I'm a political nerd sooooo,... Tongue  I obviously hope I will be wrong though.

The Pubs did fine in 2002 Tongue  This whole idea that we know what 2018 is gonna look like already is silly.  Did anyone think Trump would be the Republican nominee in 2014?  Of course not.
2  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: The 2016 Presidential Candidates Re-Imagined as Atlas Posters on: Today at 05:18:23 pm
Trump would have a BRTD-level number of attention-whoring posts.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: If Tim Kaine is selected as Hillary's VP and they win in November... on: Today at 05:15:38 pm
Assuming they lose the Senate this year, Republicans don't even need VA in 2018 to win back the Senate then. Someone like Barbara Comstock could win, but I'd rate this race Tilt D for now.
Republicans can win 10 seats in 2018 assuming Clinton wins (which is likely),
I'm sure they will screw up some races because this is the Republicans so they will end up picking up from 6 to 9 seats, 8 would be my guess right now.

lol
Great analysis!

I mean this with all due respect (and not in the a**hole way people say that on C-Span, I really don't mean this as an insult or anything, even though it may sound a bit harsh), the idea that we know anything about what 2018 will look like right now (much less, that a particular party will gain 6-10 seats) is beyond ridiculous.  "Lol" was exactly the response that the post warranted.  I don't mean to single you out Windjammer because you're actually a pretty good poster, but folks on this forum really need to stop trying to make predictions like this when we're not even through the current election cycle.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: If Tim Kaine is selected as Hillary's VP and they win in November... on: Today at 03:27:13 pm
Assuming they lose the Senate this year, Republicans don't even need VA in 2018 to win back the Senate then. Someone like Barbara Comstock could win, but I'd rate this race Tilt D for now.
Republicans can win 10 seats in 2018 assuming Clinton wins (which is likely),
I'm sure they will screw up some races because this is the Republicans so they will end up picking up from 6 to 9 seats, 8 would be my guess right now.

lol
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Does JCL have the lowest self awareness of any Forum member? on: July 22, 2016, 06:55:56 am
He just keeps making terrible prediction after terrible prediction and never seems to learn a thing from it.

I can't think of any other posters for whom the above description seems apt....

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=1387


In fairness, BushOklahoma probably (hopefully) a hoax.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Grade Trump Speech on: July 22, 2016, 05:43:53 am
C-
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Lookit, an apology is in order on: July 19, 2016, 02:31:22 pm
Who?
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 19, 2016, 06:38:34 am
So night one was basically Two Minutes Hate stretched across an entire evening Tongue 

Giuliani and the Marcus Lutrell guy did a good job (the content of both their speeches especially Giuliani's was awful, but the delivery was pretty solid).  Everyone else was either mind-numbingly boring (Michael McCall, Willie Robertson, Tom Cotton, Joni Ernst, etc) or a complete cringe-fest (Melania Trump's plagiarism, General Flynn, Patricia Smith, David Clarke, etc).
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 18, 2016, 09:57:29 pm
Michael Flynn is a terrible speaker.
10  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Best and Worst Governors of the Past 50 Years: Ohio on: July 18, 2016, 07:38:01 pm
Gilligan/Taft

Voinovich was a far better Senator than Governor.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 18, 2016, 07:36:19 pm
This woman is crazy.

She lost her child.

You think she simply snapped due to enormous grief?  I guess that's possible, but she's still crazy.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 18, 2016, 07:28:08 pm
This woman is crazy.
13  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: July 18, 2016, 06:13:19 pm
Also, I would like to see the "wheel" of aristocratic male domination broken, and don't think Daenerys as ruler or even Jon as ruler would be a good ending - I think they should make their world more modern and egalitarian like the NW, and both maybe not die, but finish out the story as emotionally wounded characters.

In all modesty, I'm the one who brought constitutional federalism to Westeros. Wink

Over my dead body Tongue


I really need to make that Clash of Kings remake as soon as time allows, xD

Haha, I'd love to be an external observer and watch as the new Robb tries to replicate my success. Cheesy

Or you could always play as someone else Tongue
14  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: July 17, 2016, 10:12:52 pm
Also, I would like to see the "wheel" of aristocratic male domination broken, and don't think Daenerys as ruler or even Jon as ruler would be a good ending - I think they should make their world more modern and egalitarian like the NW, and both maybe not die, but finish out the story as emotionally wounded characters.

In all modesty, I'm the one who brought constitutional federalism to Westeros. Wink

Over my dead body Tongue


I really need to make that Clash of Kings remake as soon as time allows, xD

Yes.  Yes, you do Tongue
15  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Evil or Not: Donald Trump on: July 17, 2016, 03:39:52 pm
Yes and so is what he represents (in both the political and business realms).  It is evil to deliberately incite bigotry and spread prejudice simply to advance one's political career (that was true when George Wallace did it, it was true when Bush Sr. and W. did it, it was true when Hillary did it in 2008 and it's certainly true when Trump does it).  While I doubt Trump believes everything he says, he is clearly a racist, anti-Semitic, Islamaphobic, xenophobic, misogynistic, greedy, egomaniacal, self-centered, thin-skinned bully.

And while I recognize that there will always be winners and losers in a Capitalist economy.  However, there's a difference between a businessman who is as ruthless as he has to be to make a living and one who is as ruthless as he can get away with being.  Trump is the second kind and that is evil.  

TL;DR: Not only is Donald Trump evil, but in many ways he represents the worst that America has to offer.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Put a Rating on the U.S. Senate for 2016 - Summer on: July 17, 2016, 02:50:44 pm
Malcolm X, why don't you consider North Carolina competitive? I realize that Ross isn't the best candidate, but remember what happened in 2008.

I think the Republicans will be forced to spend some money in North Carolina and Iowa, but I don't think Democrats have a realistic chance of actually winning either seat (especially NC).  IIRC, Burr is polling well enough that if most of the Republican-leaning undecideds end up vote for him (which they will), he shouldn't be more than 1-2% away from 50% (he might even be over it).  And he'll obviously get some undecideds, even if they break for Ross overall.  The numbers just aren't there right now.  I'd also add that Hagen didn't really win in 2008, so much as Dole lost.  The "Godless" ad really hurt Dole and was a big reason for her defeat (along with an unusually Democratic electorate in NC that year).  

On the other hand, I think Vilsack would probably have beaten Grassley this cycle were he the nominee.  As it is, Judge will make it far closer than it should be (probably an 8-12 point Grassley victory).  The Garland stuff definitely did some serious, lasting damage to Grassley's brand with both Democrats (he seems to no longer have much cross-over appeal) and independents.  Luckily for Republicans, Judge is almost certainly not a strong enough candidate to take advantage of this.  Grassley would be wise not to run for re-election in 2022 though imo.
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is the preceding poster a good fit for Minnesota? (Overall) on: July 17, 2016, 02:37:32 pm
Sure, why not?  He's definitely a better fit than BRTD Tongue
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Your reaction to this Senate result on: July 17, 2016, 02:35:38 pm
In before Atlas decides Jason Kander is the 2020/2024 Democratic frontrunner Tongue
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Put a Rating on the U.S. Senate for 2016 - Summer on: July 17, 2016, 02:33:48 pm
Toss-Up to Tilt R.

Democrats have Wisconsin and Illinois, in all likelihood. Those are the easiest pickings. Let's be generous and give Indiana. They still need two of NH, FL, PA, and OH, PLUS they have to hold NV. Toomey will probably be fine, and I just don't "feel" like Portman will lose. Florida I'd call Tilt R, so even if they get NH, they'd still need one more to be safe, and that's risky, considering that the winner of NV will probably be the same party as the winner of the Presidency.

Generous would be giving the Democrats IL, WI, NH, OH, FL, PA, AZ, MO, IN, and holding NV.  A Republican winning statewide in NV with Trump on the top of the ticket is about as likely as a Democrat winning statewide in OH in 2010 (i.e. it's simply not happening, period).  Indiana and New Hampshire are both leaning Democratic, so that's already four seats.  We could call Indiana a toss-up if we wanted to be generous to the Republicans, but there's really no evidence that Bayh doesn't have the double-digit lead that Democratic internals were suggesting (for one thing, he never would've gotten in unless he thought it was a slam-dunk).

Speaking as someone who lives in Ohio and has been following the Senate race pretty closely, that one is going to be extremely close either way, but between Trump, Strickland's truly bipartisan popularity in Appalachia, the fact that the Presidential race will boost African-American turnout (which was a problem for Strickland in 2010), Portman being so anonymous that he may have lower name recognition than Strickland (seriously, no one here knows who Portman even is), and the fact that the race is basically tied right now despite the fact that I've been seeing literally about 5-8 Portman ads a week for a while now compared to 1-2 ads for Strickland (an advantage Portman won't have once we get closer to the election), I suspect Strickland will narrowly pull out a win.  

In Arizona, McCain has been running a pretty weak campaign while Kirkpatrick has been running a surprisingly strong one (complete with what is easily the best ad I've seen this cycle from a Senate candidate).  This is also going to be McCain's first competitive general election in Arizona since...ever and he isn't nearly as popular as he used to be (for one thing, he has no cross-party appeal).  And let's not forget that Trump is on the ballot Tongue  I don't see how McCain wins re-election, although this race is still a toss-up.  

We won't really know much about Florida until we're a good 3-4 weeks past the primary.  Missouri will be pretty close and while I think Blunt will skate by, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see him lose.  Toomey would probably be looking at a 7-8 point victory in a normal year, but it's already become clear that Trump is really dragging him down.  Right now, I think Toomey is probably looking at a 3-4 point victory (he's a pretty strong incumbent, McGinty is a weak B-lister at best, and PA has a strong Republican party), but if there really is a Democratic wave then Toomey might be screwed.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Put a rating on the U.S. House for 2016 - Summer on: July 17, 2016, 01:40:05 pm
Likely R.  We're probably looking at something in the neighborhood of a 20 seat gain, but the numbers just aren't there, at least not right now.  It's not impossible if things get significantly worse for the Republicans (and if anyone can drag the party down with them, it's Trump), but I suspect the Democrats blew there chance by punting seats like NJ-2, NJ-3, IL-13, IN-2, NC-9, VA-2, PA-6, OH-6, etc.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Put a Rating on the U.S. Senate for 2016 - Summer on: July 17, 2016, 01:31:39 pm
Lean D, right now we're looking at pickups in NH, OH, IN, IL, WI, AZ, and quite possibly FL (reserving judgement on Murphy until at least a few weeks after the primary), and there's definitely a chance that either PA or MO could flip with a little luck.  
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Case for Vilsack on: July 17, 2016, 01:24:18 pm
I reject the premise of this thread.  There is no case for Vilsack.
23  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Best and Worst Senators of the Past 50 Years: South Dakota on: July 17, 2016, 12:49:50 pm
Why is McGovern so beloved on the forum?  He seems like a pretty generic anti-Vietnam liberal.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: BREAKING: Baton Rouge, LA cops killed in shooting Sunday on: July 17, 2016, 12:46:57 pm
This may be the effect of BLM, maybe President Obama, the media dividing the nation, I don't know.

Or maybe when you shoot at people they eventually start shooting back?

(I'm not saying this is a good thing, far from it.)

Or that both of you (one in particular) are posting like idiots?

Stop. Just, stop.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Put a Rating on the US Senate for 2016 - Spring 2016 on: July 17, 2016, 12:43:48 pm
Lean D, my guess is that it'll end up as anything from a 52-48 to a 54-46 split in the Democrats' favor. 
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