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April 30, 2016, 10:12:00 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: Today at 08:28:42 am
Some more thoughts:

- The scene with the Boltons was excellent.  The stuff with Ramsay mourning Myranda was dumb, but that last line about what to do with the body was hilarious.  The conversation between Roose and Ramsay was what I really liked here though.  

- In defense of the Dorne scene: I think they're just killing off all the Dorne characters, which is for the best.  It didn't work in the books and it was a disaster on the show. I expect the Sand Snakes and Ellaria will die pretty quickly.  Also I just realized House Martell has been completely wiped out.  The Sand Snakes borrowing LF's teleporter was dumb, but Doran's death worked better than anything else in Dorne (I don't consider Oberyn as part of the Dornish storyline so it's a pretty low bar, but still).  It made no sense from a political standpoint, but if they're just putting the Dorne storyline out of its misery, I suppose we might as well get a surprising and semi-entertaining death scene out of it.    
____________________________________________________________________
Predictions for episode two:

- Winterfell: Ramsay suggests attacking Castle Black b/c Sansa and Theon are going there and Roose agrees

- Pyke: Euron kills Balon *Maybe, I'm not sure about this one just because IDK if there will be room in the episode

- Castle Black: Thorne and co. break down the door, Edd and the Wildlings arrive and kill the mutineers.  Thorne gets killed in a boss battle with Tormund and Ghost turns Olly into a Kid's Meal.  The episode ends with Jon being resurrected somehow (maybe Melisandre kills herself in a "only death can pay for life" type thing).  If this happens, the last shot will be Jon's eyes opening...and then Castle Black probably won't be in episode three at all (a good way to build suspense and HBO seems to enjoy that sort of weapons grade trolling).  As with the Pyke prediction, I'm not as confident about Jon coming back b/c there may not be room in the episode.  

- We briefly see Bran and Max von Sydow gives him a quick talk about his Super Bran powers

- Arya fights the Waif again (who has already shot to the top of my sh!t list) and loses really badly, but does better than last time (maybe at least is swinging her stick in the general right direction).  A third Jaqen lets her return to the House of Black and White.  I hope she wargs into Nymeria and think she will this season, but it seems a bit too early.

- Brienne tells Sansa that Arya is alive, but she couldn't find her after the fight with the Hound.  Sansa gives Brienne a new mission: Go back to the Riverlands, find Arya, and bring her back to a safe part of the North.

- Tommen confines Cersei to her chambers, but the men guarding her collectively crap their pants at the sight of FrankenGregor and get out of the way when she wants to leave.  

-Jaime convinces Tommen to let him confront the High Sparrow.  They have a tense, well-acted confrontation in the Sept of Baelor, but no one dies or anything like that.  The High Sparrow drops his "Every one of us is poor and powerless, and yet together, we can overthrow an empire" line from the teaser.  

- Meereen is still a mess, so Tyrion decides to try releasing the two imprisoned dragons, but he changes his mind when they try to barbecue him.  This is laying the groundwork for when he actually frees them either late this season (or more likely, sometime next season).  We get the "That's what I do.  I drink and I know things" line from the second trailer.

Thoughts?  Agree?  Disagree?  Anyone have their own predictions for the next episode?
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Age That You First Got Drunk on: April 27, 2016, 09:24:09 pm
First time I got blackout drunk was earlier this year.  Waking up in an ER and having no idea how you got there is never fun...
3  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is coming back (not GOT, real life) on: April 27, 2016, 05:39:21 pm
Not in the important parts of the world...
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz major announcement at 4 PM on: April 27, 2016, 02:05:37 pm
Sad.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Being a YaBB God on: April 26, 2016, 09:33:08 pm
Yellow
and
Blue
Bandana
6  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Recent bans on: April 26, 2016, 09:24:24 pm
Let's be fair, Smith is probably a sock.

I thought it was pretty obvious from the beginning.
7  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: April 25, 2016, 06:49:32 am
Owen Teale is a great actor.  Loved how they've made Thorne an unusually complex depiction of a racist.  ShowThorne has many admirable qualities (see Watchers on the Wall) and clearly believes what he's saying (that he was forced to do something terrible to save the Watch b/c Jon left him no choice) and I like that he didn't try to pretend Jon had anything less than good intentions.  Part of why this works so well is Teale's performance.  

Anyway, the episode was a strong start, set most of the storylines up very quickly, and did so quite entertainingly.

Btw, let's not forget, Dorne was as bad (arguably even worse) in the books.  This isn't a case of "they changed it, now it sucks."  Dorne always sucked.  At least they got a semi-entertaining scene with Doran in this episode.
8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The ShadLyndfernSmith Quarantine of Sanders/Clinton Inanity on: April 24, 2016, 08:15:48 am
Lyndon is right though. On top of that, they endorsed Kasich yet have treated him like an afterthought joke while shilling for Rubio the entire election season.

I don't blame the kids. They were probably still sucking their mom's teat when the McCain story happened.

Stay classy, Lyndon.
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Are you surprised that Straha voted for Hillary Clinton? on: April 23, 2016, 04:29:55 pm
BRTD, who care?
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in the Maryland Senate Primary? (D) on: April 23, 2016, 08:47:15 am
I really hope Van Hollen wins, but unfortunately, I think Edwards is going to narrowly defeat him in the primary Sad
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MO-Sen 2018: Wagner likely running on: April 23, 2016, 08:45:51 am
Let's get through 2016 first.  Around this time in 2004, many pundits were claiming that the Republicans had an unbreakable grip on both Houses of Congress.  There were even claims (I remember Chris Matthews and Rush Limbaugh saying these sorts of things in particular) that the Republicans would be guaranteed to control the House until at least the next redistricting and the Senate for at least the next 20 years.  We all know how that worked out Tongue  As late as June/July 2009 (basically until the Obamacare fight started really heating up in August), it was not uncommon to see articles concern-trolling the end of the Republican party as anything more than a Deep South/regional rump party.  In early 2009, it seemed like almost everyone on a non-Fox news network was going off about how Obama was some sort of Reaganesque prophet of American liberalism who would reshape the political landscape and that the 2010s would see the country make a radical shift to the left on par with its move to the right in the 1980s.

While that's all obviously quite different from saying McCaskill will probably lose (and yeah, the odds really aren't in her favor), she was also supposed to be a goner in 2012 (I even remember that at one point Akin was being touted as the strongest candidate by more than a few Republicans when he first got in, funny what a little hindsight can do to one's opinions Tongue ).  This whole business of predicting Senate races that aren't even up in the coming election cycle, while harmless, is pretty useless on a practical level.  The truth is that we don't have the foggiest idea about what kind of year 2018 will be and there are too many unknown unknowns (and known unknowns, for that matter) to make predictions with the level of confidence some of you guys have been doing in this thread.  

TL;DR: It's to early to say how some Senate races in 2016 (ex: FL-Sen) will shape up, much less 2018 races.  A lot can and will happen between now and then, so we really shouldn't be declaring that Senators are going to get Blanched this far out (not saying McCaskill won't lose badly, but it is really too early to say anything except that she's definitely the underdog at this ridiculously early stage).
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: What's next for Greg Orman? on: April 23, 2016, 06:52:48 am
If one of Brownback's group, like Rep. Tim Huelskamp, State Rep. Richard Carson(Chair of the Committee that passed HB2117), Jeff Colyer, or Ron Estes, gets the nomination, I think Orman could win by 5-10 points.

Huelskamp is too weak to win the nomination and Ron Estes will probably run for KS-4 if Pompeo runs against Moran this year.  Haven't heard anything about Carson, but Coyler will likely run for Governor.  That said, Orman won't win against any of these guys, much less by 5-10%.  Plus, I don't think Orman even wants it.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: GOP recruiting Carson on: April 23, 2016, 06:47:26 am
Might this be the "big announcement" he mentioned yesterday (60 Minutes appearance)?  Or is it yet to come?
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/david-jolly-to-appear-on-sundays-60-minutes/2274299
No idea. I didn't go into the office today since everyone's down in Hollywood for the conclave and the other guys decided to make it a three day weekend. I was hoping to have some back office gossip to report Tongue.

On a different note, I've been meaning to ask you something.  It seems like in either Tampa or St. Petersburg (I forget which one) the Scientologists seem to exert a huge level of influence over local Republican politics.  Do you have any idea why that is?
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: OH-Sen 2018: Mandel launches fundraising effort for possible run on: April 23, 2016, 06:41:29 am
Mandel will almost definitely get in, while Kasich probably isn't interested. That said, The Cleveland Plain Dealer is speculating Pat Tiberi might get in.

Tiberi's a lot more credible a threat than Mandel, so hopefully they get into an ugly primary.

EDIT: DeWine rematch would be foolish, and as X stated, he wants to be Governor. He's held pretty much every-other elected position in the state.

Tiberi doesn't seem to want it, Stivers is probably gonna be the nominee.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will any of these Democratic candidates for the U.S House win in November? on: April 22, 2016, 06:25:38 am
Bonoff, Plumb, and Schwartz could. 

Some other candidates to keep an eye on in reach/semi-reach districts: Joshua Gottheimer (I think he's gonna unseat Scott Garrett), the guy in WV-2, IN-9 (if we get a major Dem wave and Hollingsworth is as weak as I suspect and Yoder runs an A+ campaign), IL-12 (the Dem seems to be getting his act together in a big way, we'll see if anything comes of it), and MT-AL.

The Dems seem to have finally realized the opportunity that they have in the House this year and have started recruiting strong candidates like Tom Nelson (WI-8), Bonoff, Schwartz, the guy in AK-AL, and Kim Myers (Richard Hanna's open seat), but it is too little, too late Sad
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Legalization (medical and recreational )of Marijuana when? on: April 21, 2016, 09:02:58 pm
The real struggle is getting the federal government to allow it.  Otherwise random drug tests will be a problem.
17  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: ADL complains of antisemitism in Disney's Zootopia on: April 20, 2016, 09:40:46 pm
I feel like Finding Dory will end up being overrated because of Finding Nemo's near sacred status.
Oh man, please don't mention it!  Finding Nemo is perhaps the most overrated movie of all time, or is a finalist at the very least.  When I saw it, I thought it was pretty lame, and too scary for my tastes.  One of my very least favorite films.  Sometimes I swear my mom and I are the only people who don't like that film.  It reminds me of that old Far Side cartoon with the tiny gathering of the "Didn't Like Dances with Wolves Society."

Sounds like you just have bad taste in films.
18  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: ADL complains of antisemitism in Disney's Zootopia on: April 17, 2016, 04:49:58 pm
To be fair, I did post this fairly late in the day because I thout of it at work and waited to get home before posting it. I do recommend going to see the movie. It's likely gonna win best animated movie at next year's Oscars and might get a nomination for best movie overall tho even without Oscar's bias against animation, it has no chance at the big prize.

If Inside Out (the best film of 2015 and the best Pixar film ever), didn't even get nominated for best picture, I can't imagine Zootopia will.  While we're on the Oscars' bias against animated films, it's too bad they don't ever recognize voice-acting work in the acting categories.  Ellen DeGeneres (Finding Nemo), James Gandolfini (Where the Wild Things Are), Scarlett Johansson (Her), and Phyllis Smith (Inside Out) all were more deserving than some the actual nominees during their respective years.  And while I don't think he deserved a nomination for it, there is certainly an argument to be made that Jeremy Irons deserved a supporting actor nomination for his performance in The Lion King.

Except that it did win for Best Animated Feature.

@Ernie: Pixar has four sequels out, two of which fit the usual complaint, the other two are Toy Story sequels which easily surpass the original.

Also, Disney has a princess feature coming out later this year in the form of Moana
Re: Best Animated Feature: And...? 
Re: Toy Story sequels: Toy Story 3 was better, but Toy Story 2 sucked.
19  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: After The False Spring, the III ASOIAF Game (Sign Up - Rules Thread) on: April 17, 2016, 04:47:35 pm
I don't know; maybe it'd just be best to leave it be? Especially in case Badgate ever returns.


That I'd be assuming this responsibility right as finals season ramps up is a major problem here.

Yeah, let's just leave it.
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How jfern can't help but going off-topic and weaken Bernie support on Atlas on: April 17, 2016, 08:31:57 am
My opinion of Ernest as a mod just increased by 100.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Paul LePage refuses to swear in newly elected State Senator on: April 17, 2016, 08:24:47 am
LePage seems like a pretty weird dude. How'd he get reelected, again?

Split vote.

Sorry, but LePage would have won even without Cutler in the race.

Idk about 2014, but without the split, he'd have definitely lost by at least a high single-digit margin in 2010. 
22  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: ADL complains of antisemitism in Disney's Zootopia on: April 17, 2016, 08:19:00 am
To be fair, I did post this fairly late in the day because I thout of it at work and waited to get home before posting it. I do recommend going to see the movie. It's likely gonna win best animated movie at next year's Oscars and might get a nomination for best movie overall tho even without Oscar's bias against animation, it has no chance at the big prize.

If Inside Out (the best film of 2015 and the best Pixar film ever), didn't even get nominated for best picture, I can't imagine Zootopia will.  While we're on the Oscars' bias against animated films, it's too bad they don't ever recognize voice-acting work in the acting categories.  Ellen DeGeneres (Finding Nemo), James Gandolfini (Where the Wild Things Are), Scarlett Johansson (Her), and Phyllis Smith (Inside Out) all were more deserving than some the actual nominees during their respective years.  And while I don't think he deserved a nomination for it, there is certainly an argument to be made that Jeremy Irons deserved a supporting actor nomination for his performance in The Lion King.
23  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: After The False Spring, the III ASOIAF Game (Sign Up - Rules Thread) on: April 17, 2016, 08:00:22 am
Yes, I am pretty much abandoning hope

Any support for eg Dereich picking up the mantle?

If he wants to, sure.  But I'm also fine with just calling it a day and everyone saying what they had been planning.
24  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: PETITION TO BAN KOBIDOBIDOG on: April 16, 2016, 06:31:27 am
X Mr. X
25  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: April 14, 2016, 05:50:20 pm

Smiley
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