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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IA-Loras College: Blum and Young both favored. on: September 28, 2016, 09:51:36 pm
Blum will lose.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Competitive House Predictions: FL-18 to IA-01 on: September 27, 2016, 09:59:46 pm
FL-18: Randy Perkins (D)
FL-26: Joe Garcia (D) (narrowly, will lose in 2018)
FL-27: IRL (R)
IL-10: Brad Schneider (D)
IL-12: Mike Bost (R)
IN-09: Trey Hollingsworth (R) (sadly, but Yoder will get close)
IA-01: Monica Vernon (D)

This.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Jason Kander: Badass? on: September 26, 2016, 05:53:23 pm
I hope Greitens being Jewish isn't hurting him. He seems like a great leader.

I hope he's losing because he's terrible, not because people are antisemitic.

No worries, he's quite terrible.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Competitive House Predictions: CA-52 to FL-13 on: September 26, 2016, 05:51:41 pm
CO-6 isn't a Trump kind of district,  I think he'll be a drag on the Republican there, plus it's trending D anyway and the Denver area is one of the fastest growing in the country.

I definitely see CO-6 flipping this year.

Mike Coffman is basically the opposite of a Trump sort of Republican (he's been running ads in Spanish challenging his opponent to a Spanish-language debate, for instance; he speaks Spanish and Carroll does not). He also has very strong support from the Ethiopian-American community in the area.

I do still think Carroll wins, but it's no sure thing, and like I said upthread, this is Democrats' last shot to knock Coffman off; after this he becomes irreversibly entrenched, short of some sort of weird Jim Leach 2006 scenario of not taking an opponent seriously in a Democratic wave.

Exact opposite other than being a birther anyway.

The district is changing so fast I don't think any candidate should feel comfortable there, especially not a Republican.   Both Araphoe and Adams are among the fastest growing counties in the country, and it's exactly the area of CO-6 that's growing fast.   He won in 2012 by 2% and in 2014 didn't face much opposition.

In 2014 he faced one of the premier rising stars of the Colorado Democratic Party, a guy who attracted ex-Presidents and presidential candidates (Bill Clinton and Howard Dean) to come and campaign for him. Just because Coffman ended up winning solidly doesn't mean the Democrats didn't try to put up a fight.

Coffman is commonly made into a Republican hero because he's from a swing district (like usual...) but he's actually quite overrated and I expect him to go down at some point or another.  

In what way is he overrated?

Bolded the relevant part Tongue
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama vetoes 9/11 bill on: September 26, 2016, 05:49:47 pm
How can you actually have an international lawsuit?  Who would the judges be?  How does it make things any better? Not sure if I agree with the bill being overridden or not because it just sounds silly.

Im not an expert but Im pretty sure similar things happened with Iran in the past.  People sued them in US Courts and when they won the courts froze Iranian assests in the US and awarded them to the plaintiffs.  Perhaps something similar would happen here

Not a chance.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama vetoes 9/11 bill on: September 25, 2016, 06:54:30 pm
NY-Times: Obama Vetoes 9/11 Bill, but Congressional Override Is Expected

Quote
President Obama vetoed legislation on Friday that would allow families of victims of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks to sue the government of Saudi Arabia for any role in the plot, setting up an extraordinary confrontation with a Congress that unanimously backed the bill and has vowed to uphold it...

A really bad decision. Saudi Arabia and its government officials should be hold accountable for their involvement in 9/11. We shouldn't care whether they are so called "allies" or not. Justice must be done for the victims and their families. So, no, Mr. President, it does not "undermine US interests".

The only good news is that congress is expected to override the veto. Hope this gets done in a bipartisan effort. This isn't something were Republicans and Democrats should fight but work together instead.

Too bad that there is no information how Clinton and Trump view this.

The problem is that if we do this, then we'll open the door for other countries to file lawsuits in their own courts against American companies (and lets be honest, our companies have directly or indirectly gotten plenty of innocent people killed in the Middle East).  This bill is one of those ideas that sounds great in theory, but would be a disaster if actually implemented.

I don't see why this is a bad thing either. If a company operates under a foreign jurisdiction they should be subject to that country's laws. Forcing companies to treat people as people is a good thing even if it hurts our GDP.

What happens if the Saudis start demanding that major American companies to pay large enough amounts of money to drive them into bankruptcy after finding them guilty of kangaroo courts on trumped up charges?  What happens if they do that and threaten an embargo if we don't find a way to force the companies to pay?  What happens if they refuse to sell oil to any American companies until all "fines," "penalties," etc have been paid? 

The Saudis are obviously horrible and so are many of the American companies that would be hurt by this, but I really don't think folks who support this idea have thought this through.  Yes, it'd feel good for a few months, but then reality would set in.  If we really want to stick it to Saudi Arabia (and the bad elements of the Israeli government, for that matter), the best thing we can do is dramatically increase funding for research into alternative energy sources.

There's little reason to believe that a dramatic increase in funding for renewable energy research would make much of a difference in world demand for fossil fuels within the decade.

All you can do is all you can do.
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Your Three Fictional Characters? on: September 25, 2016, 03:23:50 pm
That's such a weak defense. Almost half major GoT characters have been treated like sh*t at some point or another, and some of them have had it far worse than Cersei. Sure, you can definitely empathize with what she's gone through and understand why this has led them to do what she does, but that doesn't excuse it. If explaining and excusing were the same thing, then this mean you can excuse anyone for anything.
That does excuse what he has done. She killed her husband because she had no choice, she blowed up the "big church" because she had no choice, all the time for surviving and protecting her kids (unfortunately he committed suicide, but not something she wanted it to happen). I'm not surprised you cannot try to understand all the things she did aren't because she's the "evil queen".


Quote
And no, she's not just "trying to survive". That's just bullsh*t. She's had plenty of occasions to secure her position all the while not doing harm, and instead she always chose the option that hurt the most people even when that wasn't the best option for her or her children's interests. Margaery wanted influence, sure, but she wasn't an enemy until Cersei deliberately made an enemy of her. The Starks, meanwhile, are actually trying to survive and are doing so without doing horrible things (at least not as often and not so gratuitously... I'm not excusing all they did but that's beside the point). I guess that makes them "useless". Roll Eyes
Margaery was an enemy, she wanted to get rid of her, be sent to Casterly Rock, so she reacted swiftly and in the end Margaery was outmanoeuvered.
And what the Starks are trying to survive nicely?
- When Sansa let Ramsay's dogs eat him?
-When Arya made Walder Frey eat his own children?
-When Jon Snow hanged a 14 years old?
Lol lol lol
They are useless, they are not trying to survive, they're just being portrayed as the victims, they don't care at all about survival at all, let me give you some examples: "Honour Honour, I will tell the Kind aren't from him","I break my wedding with the Freys because pure LOVE wooooow". Totally worthless, hopefully Arya will soon die because having to deal with a teenager in crisis is so annoying hehe. And hopefully Jon Snow will die again: "bouhouhouh I was raised as a bastard, look at me, I'm a victim Cry ".

Cersei has more balls than all these Stark characters.

You realize none of those three things happen in the books, right?  Also you sound like a caricature of a GoT version of the "Bad Fan" Tongue  

While I'm at it, this whole idea that being a ruthless monster = being a badass survivor needed to die like a year ago.  And you can't excuse Cersei's behavior (or Lysa's) just because she's a victim of a horrible system.  She basically said "f*** the 'rules' if they hinder me getting my immediate short-term goals, but let's still keep all other women in the same prison I was in."  Btw, if you'd read the books (giving you the benefit of the doubt and assuming that you haven't) you'd know about the scene where Cersei literally reenacts her own rape at Robert's hands on another woman with herself in the rapist role...to say nothing of everyone she gives to Qyburn for his vivisection "experiments."  Of course, she's also terrible on the show. 

If you want an example of a survivor forced to cope with horrific circumstances, look at Arya in the books (where she still very much holds on to her morality, clearly doesn't derive any pleasure from killing, and doesn't ever really seem to want to be some sort of super-assassin so much as she just wants food, shelter, and safety from the threat of things like rape while at the HoBaW...why did the show have to change that? Sad ).  The difference is that Arya said "f*** the rules, it is wrong for any women to be treated the way they have been by Westerosi society."  Cersei said "f*** the rules, they're getting in the way of me getting whatever it is I want at this precise moment."  I might be wrong, but it doesn't sound like you understand that which is...well...troubling to say the least.

Anyway, for the purposes of the question in this thread:

1. Calvin (from Calvin and Hobbes)
2. Bookverse Arya Stark (especially in the first book)
3. Donald Zinkoff (less so now than I did when I was younger, obviously)
8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Lief Reservoir of Simple Truths and Smart One-Liners on: September 25, 2016, 03:14:46 pm
This may be the dumbest bill of all time.  I wish Obama had a Tinder-esque super-veto that he could use once a year to stop particularly stupid bills without any override.

We have international courts for international legal action... domestic courts have absolutely no sovereignty over foreign nations or foreign nationals, so any ruling would be useless except for propaganda and stirring-up-sh**t purposes... but as others have pointed out, we're also basically rubber-stamping any other country that decides to take this same route to create propaganda and stir up sh**t against us.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama vetoes 9/11 bill on: September 25, 2016, 03:11:45 pm
NY-Times: Obama Vetoes 9/11 Bill, but Congressional Override Is Expected

Quote
President Obama vetoed legislation on Friday that would allow families of victims of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks to sue the government of Saudi Arabia for any role in the plot, setting up an extraordinary confrontation with a Congress that unanimously backed the bill and has vowed to uphold it...

A really bad decision. Saudi Arabia and its government officials should be hold accountable for their involvement in 9/11. We shouldn't care whether they are so called "allies" or not. Justice must be done for the victims and their families. So, no, Mr. President, it does not "undermine US interests".

The only good news is that congress is expected to override the veto. Hope this gets done in a bipartisan effort. This isn't something were Republicans and Democrats should fight but work together instead.

Too bad that there is no information how Clinton and Trump view this.

The problem is that if we do this, then we'll open the door for other countries to file lawsuits in their own courts against American companies (and lets be honest, our companies have directly or indirectly gotten plenty of innocent people killed in the Middle East).  This bill is one of those ideas that sounds great in theory, but would be a disaster if actually implemented.

I don't see why this is a bad thing either. If a company operates under a foreign jurisdiction they should be subject to that country's laws. Forcing companies to treat people as people is a good thing even if it hurts our GDP.

What happens if the Saudis start demanding that major American companies to pay large enough amounts of money to drive them into bankruptcy after finding them guilty of kangaroo courts on trumped up charges?  What happens if they do that and threaten an embargo if we don't find a way to force the companies to pay?  What happens if they refuse to sell oil to any American companies until all "fines," "penalties," etc have been paid? 

The Saudis are obviously horrible and so are many of the American companies that would be hurt by this, but I really don't think folks who support this idea have thought this through.  Yes, it'd feel good for a few months, but then reality would set in.  If we really want to stick it to Saudi Arabia (and the bad elements of the Israeli government, for that matter), the best thing we can do is dramatically increase funding for research into alternative energy sources.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Competitive House Predictions: CA-52 to FL-13 on: September 25, 2016, 02:55:24 pm
CO-6 isn't a Trump kind of district,  I think he'll be a drag on the Republican there, plus it's trending D anyway and the Denver area is one of the fastest growing in the country.

I definitely see CO-6 flipping this year.

Mike Coffman is basically the opposite of a Trump sort of Republican (he's been running ads in Spanish challenging his opponent to a Spanish-language debate, for instance; he speaks Spanish and Carroll does not). He also has very strong support from the Ethiopian-American community in the area.

I do still think Carroll wins, but it's no sure thing, and like I said upthread, this is Democrats' last shot to knock Coffman off; after this he becomes irreversibly entrenched, short of some sort of weird Jim Leach 2006 scenario of not taking an opponent seriously in a Democratic wave.

Coffman's way too right-wing to ever become remotely entrenched in the current version of this district, even if he wins this year (which I don't think he will).
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Competitive House Predictions: CA-52 to FL-13 on: September 25, 2016, 10:41:43 am
Why is Murphy's district (PA) listed as competitive?  I'm pretty sure he's running unopposed Tongue
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PA: Morning Call - Toomey + 1 on: September 25, 2016, 10:35:58 am
Gonna call this an outlier until we see confirmation from other polls.  
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Jason Kander: Badass? on: September 25, 2016, 10:32:42 am
Quote
Just learned Kander is Jewish lol. Along with Greitens in the Gov race, Kander is a military vet. Apparently, Missouri is the place to go to find Jewish War vets who also happen to be attractive.

Kander sounds like a Jewish last name since it almost sounds like 'Cantor'.

That's true. never thought of it that way.

It seems like being Jewish is a major handicap in the political world. Historically, there haven't been very many Jewish senators and governors despite several candidates running for those offices.

No, it really depends where and if we're talking about a general election or a (Republican) primary.  Cruz proved that jew-baiting is still extremely effective in the Iowa Caucuses and clearly the Missouri Republican Party has a problem with that given the smear campaign against Schweich).  I'd also bet there are plenty of places in the South and some (though not as many) in the Midwest where being Jewish would be a handicap (though not a deal-breaker either), but it's also an advantage in many large cities (ex: NYC, Philadelphia, Cleveland, etc) and states in like New York, New Jersey, and possibly Florida (Gore definitely got a boost there just by having Lieberman on the ticket)
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Disabled black man executed on sight by Police on: September 24, 2016, 05:29:37 am
DeadFlagBlues should just quit while he's behind.
Eh, the only ones who need to quite are the likes of you and steve.  You guys seem to be so #triggered by someone calling out racism.

What's weird is that this Steve character outed himself as a racist!

"Ergo, BLM, intensely emotional protests and, also, riots are occuring for reasons that are perfectly understandable and not because some uppity book-learned Black nationalists are stirring up the gangbangers or whatever you think is going on" - my strawman of Steve

"Black men get shot frequently in this country, but the riots (it's cute that you put it in quotes) tend to only happen when a bunch of demagogues get out there and tell inflammatory lies about what the man was doing and what the motives of the officer were." - Steve himself

At least he didn't call them "outside agitators" Tongue
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama vetoes 9/11 bill on: September 24, 2016, 05:26:37 am
NY-Times: Obama Vetoes 9/11 Bill, but Congressional Override Is Expected

Quote
President Obama vetoed legislation on Friday that would allow families of victims of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks to sue the government of Saudi Arabia for any role in the plot, setting up an extraordinary confrontation with a Congress that unanimously backed the bill and has vowed to uphold it...

A really bad decision. Saudi Arabia and its government officials should be hold accountable for their involvement in 9/11. We shouldn't care whether they are so called "allies" or not. Justice must be done for the victims and their families. So, no, Mr. President, it does not "undermine US interests".

The only good news is that congress is expected to override the veto. Hope this gets done in a bipartisan effort. This isn't something were Republicans and Democrats should fight but work together instead.

Too bad that there is no information how Clinton and Trump view this.

The problem is that if we do this, then we'll open the door for other countries to file lawsuits in their own courts against American companies (and lets be honest, our companies have directly or indirectly gotten plenty of innocent people killed in the Middle East).  This bill is one of those ideas that sounds great in theory, but would be a disaster if actually implemented.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Competitive House Predictions: CA-52 to FL-13 on: September 23, 2016, 06:21:01 pm
my only different prediction from yours is I think Coffman is going to lose to Carroll. It'll be tight either way though.

This, also:

while we're on the topic of Colorado, I feel like Tipton is going to underperform thanks to Glenn, but still win by at least 10 points.

Tipton will win, but I could see it being as little as eight points simply because he's such a weak incumbent.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC SEN - PPP - TIE on: September 21, 2016, 12:05:53 pm
My only worry is about Ross peeking too early, if that doesn't happen we may well pick up this seat.  Egg on my face for saying AZ would be far more competitive, btw.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Disabled black man executed on sight by Police, reportedly for holding a book on: September 21, 2016, 05:44:15 am
I trust that this will be yet another issue in which the North Carolina GOP will egregiously bungle its response.

yes, because everything is the GOP's fault. You are almost as big of a hack as the OP.

He wasn't blaming it on the GOP, merely saying that the NC GOP would find a way to f[Inks] up their response.

It shouldn't be relevant what a state party says or does. The real response that should be watched, as in most (not all, though) of these cases, is the one from the Charlotte police, the city government and the Mayor.

This.
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is Ljube serious about most of what he says? on: September 20, 2016, 08:07:23 pm
Who cares?  He's awful either way.
20  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Best Rogues Gallery? on: September 20, 2016, 05:50:05 pm
Batman
21  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: BREAKING: Angelina Jolie to divorce Brad Pitt on: September 20, 2016, 05:47:56 pm
Who care?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Senate Ratings and Predictions - Ohio on: September 20, 2016, 12:30:42 pm
Likely R. Portman is a great campaigner, hopefully he can teach whoever the Republicans put up against Brown in two years a few things.

Lol, have you ever heard the man speak?
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Competitive House Predictions: AK-AL to CA-49 on: September 18, 2016, 06:10:42 pm
Your predictions match mine to a T - Alaska Dems will fail once again to knock out Young. AZ-02 i think is Lean D considering Babeu is pure scum and will be even more exposed so before November. I've heard rumors that CA-24 could be pretty close and Fareed was definitely the right choice for Republicans, but I can't imagine Republicans winning this in a Presidential year, though I think Fareed would definitely have a shot in 2018. I even agree on Caforio, who isn't the best candidate but I think he's enough to beat Knight in a fairly neutral district that probably isn't too pro-Trump.



This, although I don't think Freed has a shot in 2018 (nor will it be close this year) mainly because Carbajal is an extremely strong candidate and should get entrenched pretty quickly.  Caforio should pick up this district, but he'll face a tough race in 2018 (especially since he may not face as weak an opponent as Knight, who has run a pretty lazy campaign and has a tendency to insert both feet directly into his mouth).  Babeu's awfulness should be enough to keep AZ-1 in Democratic hands.
24  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of New York Yankees on: September 17, 2016, 07:08:39 pm
Man, zero people south of the Raritan care about this dick-measuring contest at all. Nathan is very correct about this provoking resentment.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Ohio Dems vs Florida Dems, which is worse? on: September 17, 2016, 11:10:06 am
Just like Florida, Ohio Democrats have one major office - A US Senate seat (Nelson, Brown) but they fail at everything else they do. Both of their state legislatures are absurdly Republican for being 'swing states'. Every statewide office is held by a Republican and the margins for every office in both states were all double digit wins for Republicans. They put up a county executive who lost his own county by 7, a county which voted for Obama by 40. Now they put up a guy who lost the governor's mansion as the sitting governor to a Fox News host. Now he's trailing Portman by double digits, which is now looking similar to how Portman eviscerated Lee Fischer in 2010. Can they do anything right?

Oh, and if Murphy loses by more than 5 to Rubio and/or Charlie Crist loses, then the Florida Dems are still well up there in incompetence.
Ohio Republicans have drawn the state lines for the last 30 years. Dems got wiped in a bad year in 10, and then got to draw the most Republican districts we've ever seen. The majority of Ohioans still voted Democrat on the down ticket in '14, but it just doesn't matter given the districts.

You also have to define what you mean by "bad" in order to get a substantive answer as to which is "worse."

In Ohio, the state constitution does have very strict guidelines about how districts have to be draws, so that it would be relatively difficult for the Democrats to control the legislature under any circumstances. So they have that working against them from the start. But the astounding thing is how badly they've managed to do in statewide races recently.
Well, that's what happens when reapportionment favors keeping counties together over cities and more genuine communities of interest. 2010 was a bad year for Democrats nationwide, as was '14. FitzGerald was certainly no help, but Pillich and Carney were both good candidates. We'll see how Pepper fairs going forward in comparison to Redfern.


I tend to agree with Buckeye Nut (the gerrymandering in Ohio is so out of control that Democrats making real progress in the legislature or getting an even remotely fair congressional map is like a paraplegic trying to win a heavyweight boxing match).  It's even worse because we basically have our own version of New York's IDC (Bill Patmon and John Barnes are basically Republicans and often campaign with Kasich and the Republican House Speaker, Zack Milkovich was formerly part of this group until he lost his primary in 2014)  The other thing you have to remember is that Ohio was among the ground zero states for both the 2010 and 2014 waves and 2014 was gonna be a brutal year for OH Dems even if it was a mildly Democratic year nationally.  That would do a number on any state's bench.

In a normal midterm, Carney would've narrowly lost to Yost, Pillich definitely would have beaten Mandel, Cordrey would've been easily re-elected as AG, Strickland would've narrowly won re-election as Governor, David Pepper could've beaten Yost although it'd be really close either way, and we also would've picked up Judith French's seat on the Ohio Supreme Court (speaking of which, a really liberal – like Bernie Sanders liberal – Democrat beat a strong Republican incumbent in a State Supreme Court race a few years ago).  

Furthermore, the idea that the Ohio Democrats have no bench is not entirely accurate.  Pillich and Carney are still strong candidates (and Tim Ryan is going to be an A-list recruit if/when he decides to finally pull the trigger), but there are also some other folks non-Ohioans probably haven't heard of:

- State Senator Lou Gentile (who I'd love to see run against Bill Johnson in OH-6)

- Columbus City Council President Zach Klein (who will definitely be an A-list statewide candidate one day if he beats Ron O'Brian this year in the race for Franklin County Prosecutor)

- State Representative Kathleen Clyde will probably run for SoS in 2018 and while I wouldn't say she's as strong as some of the other folks I've mentioned, she could win if 2018 is a neutral or only mildly Republican year (especially if the Republicans don't nominate a first-rate candidate)

- Cuyahoga County Executive Armond Budish (who also led the House Democratic Caucus when they pulled off a minor miracle by taking control of the State House in 2008, which was one hell of an achievement even with the wave)

- State Senate Minority Leader Joe Schiavoni (he'd be a strong statewide candidate in 2018)

- State Representative Heather Bishoff (right now, I'd like to see her run for state senate next, but she's someone to keep an eye on and was re-elected in a swing-district by about 15% in 2014 in what was expected to be a really close race after winning her first race - which was also considered competitive - by 19%)

This isn't to say the ODP doesn't have its problems: Redfern was a terrible chairman, there is definitely some general incompetence, the vetting failure with FitzGerald was embarrassing, and they have a weird tendency to not even bother competing in certain potentially competitive congressional and state legislative districts (David Joyce's district is a prime example, but I can think of many others just off the top of head) just because said districts may have a Republican lean (you don't win by only defending your own turf, you also need to go on the offensive, especially when the maps are drawn to minimize the number of friendly districts).  However, the reality is that a number of the ODP's problems don't stem simply from incompetence.  The Florida Democratic Party on the other hand...
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