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April 21, 2015, 03:17:39 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Grand New Hampshire Debate on: April 19, 2015, 06:08:56 pm
False dichotomy: both.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Maximum Libertarian Performance on: April 19, 2015, 04:44:29 pm
Their 2012 margin is probably the ceiling.

3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would a Kaine presidential campaign look like? on: April 19, 2015, 04:42:29 pm
The defining feature of a Tim Kaine Presidential campaign would be boredom.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: YouGov: Hillary surges after announcement, up 64 points (!), 4-way tie for GOP on: April 19, 2015, 04:29:51 pm
junk poll
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WV: Manchin to stay in Senate, not run for gov. on: April 19, 2015, 11:52:39 am
Thank god.
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Inappropriate content on the forum on: April 19, 2015, 08:34:27 am
Yes, Snowguy, my observation that this forum could do with fewer teenage boys analyzing the women with whom they would have sex is in fact evidence of my deep-seated homophobia.
I was referring to "homosexuals trawling for sex".  Is that supposed to be evidence of your acceptance of gays?

If you insist on 'decency', then you should start by using decent terms and decent, truthful assessments of your fellow LGBTQIA posters.


A few things:

1) What what would you call PAPOY incidents like the infamous...modifications...retromike made to that picture of Lebron?  If you'd prefer that Xahar use a nicer term than "trawling for sex," okay.  But if so, then you're really arguing semantics instead of addressing the actual issue he was raising.

2) I'm pretty sure Xahar didn't say anything that could reasonably be called homophobic in the OP.

3) What does "QIA" stand for?

4) It is the internet.  If straight or LGBT people want to do this sort of stuff, there are more places than any of us could imagine that'll be happy to accommodate them regardless of their sexual orientation.  However, this forum is not and should not be one of those places.  It is a politics/elections forum and if that seems pointless to anyone, there are plenty of other forums out there they can post on instead.
7  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Hannibal on: April 19, 2015, 08:06:55 am
ShowLecter gets a little more interesting as the series goes on (not that anyone could hope to come close to topping Anthony Hopkins' performances as the character) and the series does gets much better during the second season.  However, the biggest issue with the show is that it always feels too slow.  It is excellent for an NBC show, but decidedly meh compared to what HBO, AMC, and FX have produced.  If nothing else, props to the showrunner (Bryan Fuller IIRC) for offering a new take on the character and not using the pre-existing Lecterverse as too much of a crutch.

That said, I stopped watching Hannibal during the middle of season 2.  There is simply too much good television on these days to keep up with everything, so lower-priority stuff like Hannibal and the last season of Boardwalk Empire just doesn't make the cut anymore.
8  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of Sarah Silverman on: April 19, 2015, 06:54:38 am
Mild HP
9  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: South: Southern Law Commission Act on: April 19, 2015, 06:42:26 am
     I agree with X that, barring inactivity, dumping the chair is probably an inherently bad idea. How about this as an amendment:

Southern Law Commission Act
1. The Commission on Southern Law and Code (hereafter CSLC) will be established upon passage of this bill. It shall be chaired by a member of the Legislature and staffed by two other citizens of the region. The chair of the CSLC may continue to hold that post upon leaving the Legislature for any reason.

2. The members of the CSLC shall be selected by a quorum in a joint meeting of the Judicial Overlord and the Legislature. Any member of the CSLC may be removed by the same process.

3. The goal of the CSLC shall be to sort the region's statute into a continuous document reflecting structure in the form of code sections and clearly defined section headers.
     a. The deadline for a completed product will be set to six months from the passage of this bill, with possibility for extension based on progress towards the goal.
     b. The completed product shall be posted on the Wiki, linked to at the top of the regional statute page.

In light of that change, this looks good to me.
10  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: 1912 Conventions (The Hearse at Monticello) on: April 18, 2015, 04:47:44 pm
Eugene Debs/Oscar Underwood!
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DNC planning primary debates on: April 18, 2015, 01:16:00 pm
12  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: South: Southern Law Commission Act on: April 18, 2015, 10:24:01 am
While I like the idea, I gotta agree with Duke on this one.  One thing I've learned during my time here is that Atlasia committees tend to die once the founder or initial group of members leave.
13  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: What is the silliest thing... on: April 18, 2015, 07:30:06 am
The silliest thing we've all done: come to Atlasia.
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The AD Madlibs Game: Week 1 on: April 17, 2015, 11:57:55 pm
Now that neurotic season has concluded, and I have more time to reflect on the cantaloupe generated by my liver, the rotund rate can only be construed as the silver lining in a dark cloud.

This "achievement" has been spanked by taking the gelatinous class to the bacon and by threatening them with further fuzzy drubbing, if they refuse to comply. The Jewish mandate is a diabolical new form of ticklish abortion and hereditary lice. People have lost the homicidal benefit of their dependents, which is a clear violation of ability to slobber, but no one seems bothered with the rights of mayonnaise.

Proponents flirted by claiming that, for every bad, orange person who is horsewhipped by the midget, a good person enjoys a better quality of donut with subsidized barracuda. Compliance by everyone makes the mold a better place.

In reality, this is a blatant disregards for the irrelevant rights of American citizens, and the malevolence of this administration is compounded by its decision not to "spread the lube around", but to hammer down dissent with onerous nacho.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NH-PPP: Tossup with Hassan, double-digit lead for Ayotte against Kuster on: April 17, 2015, 08:45:33 pm
Ayotte's 2010 victory is not indication of permanent invisibility. In a state that hasn't gone Republican in a presidential election since 2000, this is a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats.

I don't think anyone ever claimed Ayotte had either permanent or temporary invisibility.
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Sam Spade Memorial Good Post Gallery on: April 17, 2015, 01:05:38 pm
This is mostly confined to a few problem posters, but it seems more prevalent than ever now. You people know what I'm referring to, and if you don't, there's a problem. Remember that this is an educational site, and any content that might get the site blocked by a middle school is obviously unacceptable.

In other words, before you post, think about what you post is appropriate. If what you are posting is a "Hot or Not" thread, the answer is no, and in addition to being inappropriate it's creepy and gross besides.
17  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: New Register Thread on: April 17, 2015, 12:53:22 pm

stop pestering me.

This sort of stuff is why we need a do-not PM list with a strong enforcement mechanism.
18  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Anybody else seeing green England avatars all over the place? on: April 17, 2015, 12:50:49 pm
19  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: April 2015 At-large Senate Election on: April 17, 2015, 12:25:11 pm
[4] Blair2015 of Massachusetts
Labor Party

[3] Cris of Kansas
Civic Renewal

[2] Write-in: Duke

[6] Lief of Vermont
Labor Party

[5] Poirot of Quebec

[1] Polnut of Massachusetts
The People's Party
20  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Southern Voting Booth - April 2015 Governor Election on: April 17, 2015, 06:35:09 am
1. Flo
2. Deadprez
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why Hillary is inevitable in the primary (Effortpost inside) on: April 16, 2015, 04:03:20 pm
Noting Hillary is a lock to be the Democratic nominee and likely the next President is the factual evidence. Anyone without any bias about this race, who opens up the polls and information about the 2016 race without prior judgement, would determine Hillary will win. Only people who have the agenda of looking for the conclusion that she will not win say otherwise.

I know you hate the Republican candidates and probably the Republican party in general, but even you have to admit that there is a SMALL chance (like 10%) that she could lose in 2016. Are you a totally deluded Hillary hack? What is this evidence you are talking about? Why do you think polls this early do mean anything? And people who say that the 2016 election will be competitive are biased and anti-Hillary hacks? Seriously?

Let's take polls out of it.

Who has the financial advantage (keep in mind all the GOP candidates will have to spend more in 2015 and the primaries)? Hillary Clinton
Who has the structural advantage (most base safe EVs to start)? Hillary Clinton, 253 EVs solid
Who has the most beloved brand name? Clinton
Who has the best surrogates (Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Elizabeth Warren versus Mitt Romney... John McCain... George W. Bush... uh)? Hillary Clinton
Who has the more popular stance on potential major 2016 issues like minimum wage and SS/Medicare? Hillary Clinton
Does the GOP have any room to grow in white vote from 2012? No.
Does the GOP have any path to significant growth (at least a 20 point swing) in Hispanic or Black vote in 2016? No.
Can Scott Walker beat her in Florida? No. (That's 270)
Can Jeb Bush beat her in Ohio? No. (That's 270)
Can Rand Paul beat hear in Virginia? No. (That's 270)
Can Ted Cruz beat her in any swing state? No. (That's 270)

There's no path to 270 anywhere on the map for any GOP contender. Each one of them falls short in a critical swing state. The GOP is in a bad position. They have to SWEEP the swing states to win. They have less than 200 safe/solid EVs. This is impossible to win on.

In 2004, George W. Bush had Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado locked in base. He only had to go on offense for Ohio or IA/NM/NV to win.

The resources are stretched too thin. The candidate would have to twist and pander too much.

Walker could definitely beat her in Florida and Paul could win without Virginia.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NC-PPP: Bush slightly ahead of Walker, plus O'Malleymentum ! on: April 16, 2015, 02:16:17 pm
That actually seems impressive for O'Malley.
23  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: 2004 Presidential Election on: April 16, 2015, 12:56:02 pm
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: OH-Sen: Cincinnati Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld likely running on: April 16, 2015, 07:40:20 am
Please X, do not criticize Lebron's *skills*. You should remember how right he was about Fitzgerald in 2014.
Everyone makes mistakes, but I see I'm becoming the new Keystone Phil now. Roll Eyes

Edit: Keep in mind, I said like 3 months before the election (right around the time of the implosion) that FitzGerald would lose. That, and I think we can all agree that most of our 2014 predictions sucked miserably (especially Governor races).
You know obviously quite well OH politics. However, you're so skewed, I hope you realize that.
Thanks for saying that, and oh yeah I can admit I'm skewed towards Sittenfeld. I do come off as someone who's biased for him and I am dedicated to his campaign from this point on, but I'd be lying if I said I didn't know he would lose the primary. This is more personal support of him at this point due to his strong stances on equal rights issues and the inspiration his bold candidacy brings to some fellow Millennial's like myself.

My issue isn't that you support Sittenfield so much as that you do stuff like calling the ODP's support for Strickland an FDP move that shows Strickland is scared of Sittenfield, talk about the fundraising numbers completely out-of-context, or get so intense in your opposition to Strickland that I almost wondered if you'd vote Portman, etc that can be rather off-putting.  I'd think we could both agree that neither Strickland nor Sittenfield is an awful candidate.  What we really disagree on is whether Strickland can beat Portman.  Yes, there's stuff about Sittenfield that rubs me the wrong way (the ageism in the speech of his I saw at an FCDP event, the fact that he's literally said to another elected official that he's running because "the state legislature is too small for me," and the fact that he repeatedly promised to drop out if Strickland ran) but I could overlook all of that if I thought he could win and Strickland couldn't.

You are right about one thing though, I can be a bit condescending sometimes when talking about something I know a lot about (in this case Ohio politics) with someone whom I think is completely wrong.  It's not one of my better qualities.  However, I'm self-aware enough to realize this and I am working on it.  While it isn't really a problem IRL at this point, the feeling of anonymity that comes with talking online with folks I'll never meet means that every now and then I make posts that unintentionally have a bit of a condescending tone to them.  We all have our weaknesses, this is one of mine.  I didn't need to respond in such a dismissive manner and I apologize for that (even though I was completely right on the substance of my post Wink ).  I could've just not responded to your post if I didn't feel like debating at the time.

In any event, if you like Sittenfield, you should be hoping he drops out or at least cuts back on the negativity/ageism because he's burning a lot of bridges.  If he dropped out and ran against Chabot he'd probably lose, but he could still boost his name recognition for a 2018 row-office run, establish serious national fundraising connections, repair the bridges he's burned so far, and prove that he can overperform in tough territory in the Cincinnati area.  

I don't want to see him go the way of Paul Hackett.  Unlike Sittenfield, Hackett had a right to be pissed since IIRC Brown originally said he wasn't running in 2006, but once Brown got in, Hackett should've dropped out and run against Schmidt in OH-2.  Had he done so, he definitely would've won.  However, he stayed in even though he just was not ready to play at that level yet and would've probably lost to DeWine.  Eventually Hackett dropped out, but by then he had burned any bridges he had in the ODP and couldn't even run in OH-2.  He became a McCain-level bitter and hollow shell of his former self and hasn't been heard from since.  I have less sympathy for Sittenfield since he promised everyone and their brother that he'd drop out if Strickland or Tim Ryan ran for Senate...until Strickland got in the race.

I do have to ask though, why exactly do you hate Strickland so much?  A lot of your attacks on him are pretty out there For example, no offense, but I think we can agree Strickland isn't homophobe just because he's friends with someone who is one (Garrison).  And a lot of the stuff you said about the budget being completely his fault, the state economy being a mess because of him, claims about him being really unpopular, etc simply isn't true.  That's not my opinion or me being condescending, I mean what you've said sometimes directly contradicted the objective facts.  So why the intense Strickland hate?

Lastly, the ODP decided (with about 80% voting in favor) to make an exception to the bylaws and endorse Strickland.  That isn't Strickland being afraid, it's something that was clearly going to happen if Strickland got in no matter what.  Most OH Democrats (especially in the ODP establishment, but even the rank-and-file) really like Strickland.  He does have some work to do in terms of improving his GOTV operation in African-American communities (especially in eastern Cuyahoga County), but the fact that he's already reaching out to local elected officials makes me optimistic that he's learned from his one big mistake in 2006.
25  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: IDS 1: The Promoting Fairness and Equality in Education Act (Debating) on: April 15, 2015, 03:04:44 pm
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