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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which non-incumbent candidate is each party's strongest recruit? on: Today at 01:30:51 pm
Weakest R: Scott Brown

Explain. Brown is doing far better than Smith or Rubens would be doing. Despite being an obvious carpetbagger he has been able to go from being down high single-digits a couple months ago to within the margin of error. While his chances are still below 50%, it is certainly within the realm of possibility that he wins on election night.

Yeah, I don't quite know why you can say Brown is worse than Tillis or Rounds (who's actually doing the exact opposite that Brown's done).

New Hampshire fluctuates ridiculously with the national mood; a non-joke candidate would be leading by about 5-6%.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: Hendrix College-AR-3/4: Womack +45, Westerman +2 on: Today at 09:06:39 am
I always thought Witt would make it close, sadly it's probably the wrong year; I expect Westerman to win an unimpressive victory (5-7%) much like Mooney in WV-2.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO: PPP says Gardner+3 on: Today at 09:02:21 am
It seems Colorado is experiencing a miniature 1994

No, Hickenlooper should eek out a win and we'll almost certainly keep the state house and probably the state senate.  Despite the poll, I think we'll also narrowly pickup the Secretary of State's office, especially with Campbell on the ballot (even if she's overpolling, she's only taking votes away from Williams).  Coloradans can correct me if I'm wrong, but I've heard Neguse has run a very strong campaign and is considered a top-tier recruit whereas Williams is considered a pretty "meh" candidate at best.  The Treasurer's race seems more competitive than I expected since I've never been very impressed by Markey, but it looks like she could win (although my gut still says she'll do worse than Neguse).  The AG race is disappointing because Quick seemed like a really strong candidate on paper, but I've heard Coffman proved stronger than expected and this always struck me as a race tied to the national mood...oh well Sad Udall has simply run an awful campaign while Gardner ran a better campaign than any other Republican Senate candidate (including incumbents).

TL; DR: Yes, we're facing some backlash here from the gun stuff, but this is hardly a 1994-type situation (if you want to see what that would look like, watch the results in Ohio).  Even Udall would've probably won had he run an average-quality campaign.  This will be pretty rough, but it isn't 1994 level-bad.  If it was, Hickenlooper would probably be doing worse than Udall (given that he's probably about as hated by Colorado Republicans as Barack Obama).
4  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: I challenge Senator Cassius to a duel! on: Today at 08:33:40 am
Wow, I challenged Cassius to a debate last night?

Okay, I guess we should lay some ground rules, lol

Not a debate, my friend, a duel Tongue
5  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Best President, of these three on: Today at 05:12:33 am
Truman and it's not even close.
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: I'm freakin pissed right now on: Today at 04:57:02 am
This very much depends on the type of boss you have, but would it help you out to have a one-on-one wherein you own the issue (whether it was your fault or not), point out the need for teamwork to ensure it doesn't happen again and recommend some accountability solutions that can promote better communication with those who haven't been holding up their end?

Again, it all depends on whether you boss is just a "boss" or is actually some semblance of a leader, but some managers would admire that sort of solution-oriented thinking.

I'd second this.  Speaking from personal experience, what J-Man is describing can work really well with the right type of boss.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics on: Today at 04:44:59 am
A non-competitive race for Ohio Governor this year as opposed to 2010 as well as the U.S. Supreme Court siding with the Ohio GOP on cutting a week of our early voting led to a decrease in the # of absentee ballots requested from 2010. Early voting applications were sent to 6 million voters in Ohio with about 750,000 Ohioans requesting or casting an absentee ballot.

The absentee ballots were sent out with federal money, but once Ohio runs out of the money, then it will be the job of the state legislature to appropriate new state funding for sending them out and Secretary of Suppression State Jon Husted will only send them if he chooses to. Obviously, when that time comes, that won't run smoothly.

Early voting requests is also taking a big toll out of Cuyahoga County, the most populous and one of the most Democratic counties in the state. Despite the fact that the leading Democrat, Ed FitzGerald is from here, there's 60,000 less absentee ballots requested this year than in 2010; with only 130,000 requested from our county this year. There's just a huge lack of Democratic enthusiasm that will result in low turnout among many women and minorities.

For the whole state of Ohio, early voting requests are relatively the same as 2010, but there's a -2 shift for absentee requests by Democratic voters and a +1 shift by Republican voters:

2014: Democrats - 55%, Republicans - 25%, Independent/Unaffiliated - 19%
2010: Democrats - 57%, Republicans - 24%, Independent/Unaffiliated - 20%

The numbers in key counties like Franklin paint a far bleaker picture Sad
8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which Flame Warrior is the preceding poster? on: October 20, 2014, 08:55:39 pm
Eagle Scout with some Troglodyte tendencies.
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinon of the Previos Poster on: October 20, 2014, 08:52:58 pm
FF
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MA: Rasmussen: Coakley trails Baker on: October 20, 2014, 07:49:16 pm
Ahahaha I love this!

Seconded
11  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is KCDem a sock of krazen? on: October 20, 2014, 05:25:51 pm
I'm putting money on him being a sock trying to be krazen, but I don't think they're the same person.

This
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY: SUSA: McConnell +1 on: October 20, 2014, 05:23:38 pm
Undecideds are going to break heavily to McConnell.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics on: October 20, 2014, 03:41:37 pm
How does El Paso County turn out more Democrats than all of Denver combined?

Because hardly anything has come in from Denver Tongue  These numbers mean very little right now.
14  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is coming ! on: October 20, 2014, 03:39:59 pm
You got my hopes up Angry  I saw this and thought they'd announced when The Winds of Winter will be finished Sad
15  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of South Park's anti-union propaganda on: October 20, 2014, 03:36:57 pm
I mean, I think they're right about Uber being far superior to taxis and unions shouldn't be able to shut Uber down, but their portrayal of general union tactics (in this episode and others) was more of a right-wing caricature than anything based in reality.

This, but the episode wasn't even really about unions.  The payoff to the summer camp storyline was excellent, but otherwise it was a pretty mediocre episode.  This has been a pretty "meh" season so far.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: AR-1/2: Hendrix College: Crawford +22, Hays +4 on: October 20, 2014, 02:33:01 pm
I think it was Miles who said Pryor is likely to win CD2 even if he loses.

Hey, I've been saying that too. Tongue And I've also been bashing the pundits for keeping it at lean R because "arkansauce is red!1!!1!!"

I think me and Miles were the only Dems here who thought this district was truly winnable. We now accept our accolades.

*Ahem* Angry Tongue

From "Who Will Win These House Races":

Graham, Shea-Porter, Mooney, Rahall, Hays, Comstock

*snip* AR-2 could be competitive with a strong Democrat, especially as an open seat. *snip*

I now accept my accolades.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics on: October 20, 2014, 02:19:29 pm
Colorado ballot count for 11/20:

Total votes cast: 79,355

Republicans: 36,830 (46%)

Democrats: 24,648 (31%)

Unaffiliated: 17,191 (21%)

Here are the numbers for two crucial suburban Denver swing counties, both of which generally mirror statewide turnout (as you can see):

Jefferson County

Republicans: 5961 (43%)

Democrats: 4352 (32%)

Unaffiliated: 3394 (25%)


Arapahoe County

Republicans: 4877 (45%)

Democrats: 3521 (32%)

Unaffiliated: 2378 (22%)

Enjoy.

What are the numbers for El Paso, Boulder, Denver, Douglas, and Pueblo counties?
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cohn (NYT): Early Voting Offers No Proof That Dems Have Improved Turnout Effort on: October 20, 2014, 02:17:05 pm
Regardless of whether or not he's right, the idea that Democratic turnout in Ohio this cycle can be used to draw any conclusions about turnout in other states is Dick Morris-level idiocy for obvious reasons.
19  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The worst President, of these three? on: October 20, 2014, 09:46:57 am
George W. Bush; although Reagan was horrible and the country is still suffering from the damage he caused while in office.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What would be the scandal that ends the above posters political career? on: October 19, 2014, 07:39:14 pm
Revealed to be a poster on the atlas forum.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Ken Buck, Ken Buck? on: October 19, 2014, 02:44:40 pm
Badger Badger Badger Badger Badger Mods Mods Badger Bader Bader Badger?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: The Statewide Office Newspaper Endorsements Thread on: October 19, 2014, 10:53:44 am
Cleveland Plain Dealer:
Governor/Lt. Governor - No endorsement (but they did endorse Ed FitzGerald/Sharen Neuhardt (D) in the Democratic primary)
Attorney General - Mike DeWine (R)
Auditor - Dave Yost (R)
Secretary of State - Nina Turner (D)
Treasurer - Connie Pillich (D)

It's a shame the home newspaper refuse to endorse Fitzy, but at least they aren't jumping on the Kasich bandwagon. The other + for them I guess is they were the only major statewide newspaper to endorse Turner AFAIK.

Columbus Dispatch:
Governor/Lt. Governor - John Kasich/Mary Taylor (R)
Attorney General - Mike DeWine (R)
Auditor - Dave Yost (R)
Secretary of State - Jon Husted (R)
Treasurer - Josh Mandel (R)

As is typical Dispatch fashion, their editorials are so hilariously biased towards the GOP; it reads like it was written by the incumbents themselves. They're known as the most pro-Kasich newspaper in the state, so it's nothing really surprising to see.

Cincinnati Enquirer:
Governor/Lt. Governor - John Kasich/Mary Taylor (R)
Attorney General - Mike DeWine (R)
Auditor - Dave Yost (R)
Secretary of State - Jon Husted (R)
Treasurer - Connie Pillich (D)

The Enquirer said in their editorial they mainly endorsed Pillich over Mandel b/c of the lack of trust and commitment in Mandel (aka 2012 Senate), yet here they are also endorsing Kasich.

Akron Beacon Journal:
Governor/Lt. Governor - John Kasich/Mary Taylor (R)
Attorney General - Mike DeWine (R)
Auditor - Dave Yost (R)
Secretary of State - Jon Husted (R)
Treasurer - Connie Pillich (D)

The "protest" endorsement. They're vehemently opposed to Kasich and his policies, but they're endorsing Kasich just to spite Ed.

Dayton Daily News:
No endorsements for all races (they don't endorse candidates)

Toledo Blade:
Governor/Lt. Governor - No endorsement
Attorney General - David Pepper (D)
Auditor - Dave Yost (R)
Secretary of State - Jon Husted (R)
Treasurer - Connie Pillich (D)

One thing to note; everyone's endorsing Dave Yost. A lot of that is contributed to Yost's stances against his party on JobsOhio and charter schools and his protection of public money. Yost is the odd ball out while it's easy to see why some papers are very reluctant to endorse Kasich, Husted, Mandel or DeWine given how they come off as a lot more partisan than Yost.

Wasn't the Cleveland Plain Dealer's editorial page supposed to be really right-wing?  Btw, Yost hasn't really broken with his party in a meaningful way, it's more that he comes across as pretty inoffensive and has managed to create a perception that he's far more independent than he actually is (although his singing has led to so pretty cringe-inducing moments Tongue ).  I don't think papers have come off as the least bit reluctant to endorse DeWine or Mandel (any editorial boards that endorsed Mandel are surely such right-wing hacks that they'd probably happily endorse any Republican).  Lastly, if a paper doesn't endorse Mandel b/c of trust and commitment issues, why on earth would they endorse FitzGerald (as awful as Kasich's policies are)?
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Wisconsin Gubenatorial Elections vs. Real Clear Politics Average on: October 19, 2014, 09:11:02 am
Currently Scott Walker holds a very narrow spread of +0.4 according to the Real Clear Politics Average.  However, it appears that Real Clear Politics tends to overestimate the GOP vote in WI gubenatorial races.  

                      RCP Average                 Outcome
Recall           R+ 6.7                        R + 6.8      

2010             R + 8.7                      R + 5.7

2006             D + 6.0                       D + 7.4

If you average these three differences then it comes out to Democrats outperforming the RCP average by 1.43 points.  

Do you think the RCP average is currently overestimating Walker's support?  

Quite possibly, but this is the sort of thing that's true until one day it suddenly isn't (like Virginia always electing a Governor who isn't from the President's party).
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which non-incumbent candidate is each party's strongest recruit? on: October 19, 2014, 09:05:25 am
Strongest D: Michelle Nunn
Strongest R: Cory Gardner

Weakest D: Natalie Tenant
Weakest R: Scott Brown
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: MI-11-Mitchell: Trott up 12 on: October 19, 2014, 09:00:48 am
Trott will probably win (quite possibly by double-digits), but as a rule Mitchell's polls belong in the garbage.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 368


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