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May 03, 2015, 02:54:43 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MS-01 Special Election Thread on: Today at 02:46:51 pm
Thanks a lot for very interesting details! IMHO, in districts like this Democrats must hope (and may be - work for) for victory of as "sane" Republican as posssible (and vice versa - for Republicans in strongly Democratic districts), not for miraculous victory of their candidate, who doesn't fit district well.

There is evidence that radicals on the othe side help with independents elsewhere. It is not at all clear that Dems are better off with moderate Republicans.
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 6 Officers Charged In Freddy Gray Death; 2nd Deg. Murder & Manslaughter on: Today at 02:02:09 pm
Goodson claims audio exists of him asking other officers to restrain Gray

I was always disgusted by the absurd Nero/Miller charges, but this basically settles it for me. At least 90% of these charges are nonsense, and obviously none of them should result in any sort of criminal punishment. Incredibly upsetting to see such seemingly lovely people's lives ruined in the name of politics. Sad

I can hardly bear to live in this world any longer.

These lovely people would not have been in trouble if they would simply respect human lives a bit more. Not arresting people on invented charges (presumably, planning a perjury to justify it) would have also helped. Hopefully, they will have a few years to think why a police badge is not a licence to commit crimes.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 6 Officers Charged In Freddy Gray Death; 2nd Deg. Murder & Manslaughter on: May 02, 2015, 01:34:43 am

Similar political composition?  Granted, it's not as extreme a change politically as in the other direction, but per capita, Prince George County has roughly 20% fewer Republicans (i.e., fair and balanced jurors in the view of Faux News) than does the City of Baltimore.


Similar enough. In Baltimore City it was Obama 87.19% Romney 11.09%, and in Prince George´s it was Obama 89.73%, Romney 9.22%.  Hard, really, to make it any more precise. True enough, it is about 20% difference: but 20% of something that close to zero is negligible, anyway. Or, you could say, there are only about 3% more Dems there Smiley
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Jewish Student Posts Hindu Symbol, is Investigated for Anti-Semitic Hate Crime on: May 02, 2015, 12:38:25 am
The guy is an idiot and the joke was not funny, but making it into a crime is even less funny. At the very most, it should be between him and his fraternity brothers.

Send them all to Finland

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Training_Air_Wing,_Finnish_Air_Force
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: GOP House Rep: We can't impeach Obama, so we won't approve his nominees instead! on: May 02, 2015, 12:34:22 am
I am happy to hear, at least, he is practicing bilingualism in Arizona. A nice gesture towards his Hispanic constituents.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 6 Officers Charged In Freddy Gray Death; 2nd Deg. Murder & Manslaughter on: May 02, 2015, 12:30:10 am
They should move the trial to Prince George's county.
Roll Eyes  No need to be just as obnoxious in the other partisan direction.

Well, if the argument is that "it is impossible to have a fair trial because everybody in Baltimore knows about the case and because of the riots", why would moving the trial to a jurisdiction with the same population composition as the original, but without the riots, obnoxious? Or what was the argument for moving the trial?
Because some of the apologists on this forum know that sending the trial out to scared white jurors in the suburbs will dramatically increase the chance of an acquittal.

That, of course, is a nice legal point.

But I would still like to hear an argument for not moving it to Prince George's county (assuming it has to be moved).
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 6 Officers Charged In Freddy Gray Death; 2nd Deg. Murder & Manslaughter on: May 02, 2015, 12:26:05 am
They should move the trial to Prince George's county.
Roll Eyes  No need to be just as obnoxious in the other partisan direction.

Well, if the argument is that "it is impossible to have a fair trial because everybody in Baltimore knows about the case and because of the riots", why would moving the trial to a jurisdiction with similar demographics and political composition as the original, but without the riots, obnoxious? Or what was the argument for moving the trial?
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 6 Officers Charged In Freddy Gray Death; 2nd Deg. Murder & Manslaughter on: May 01, 2015, 11:54:40 pm
They should move the trial to Prince George's county.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: May 01, 2015, 11:50:58 pm
Anyway, I do not expect HM to do any of that, unless something truly dramatic happens. Nor would I expect Cameron to refuse to call for a new election if neither he nor anybody else can form the government within reasonable time. But they could, couldn´t they?
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: May 01, 2015, 11:41:33 pm
If, and I realize that this is a highly improbable if, no party proves capable of forming a government, is there anyone Elizabeth could call on to form an apolitical caretaker government pending a new election? I not interested at the moment on whether she would do that, but only if there is anyone she could call on, such as perhaps a crossbench Lord.

No. Cameron would again carry on as a careholder. He is in power until replaced.

Is there anything in the British law that would prevent something like this?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Australian_constitutional_crisis

Considering about half of that couldn't take place due to the House of Lords not being like the Australian Senate, no, there isn't.

Well, obviously, I was not asking about that half Smiley

And, BTW, a minority might not be able to get the supply Smiley
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: May 01, 2015, 11:23:38 pm
If, and I realize that this is a highly improbable if, no party proves capable of forming a government, is there anyone Elizabeth could call on to form an apolitical caretaker government pending a new election? I not interested at the moment on whether she would do that, but only if there is anyone she could call on, such as perhaps a crossbench Lord.

No. Cameron would again carry on as a careholder. He is in power until replaced.

Is there anything in the British law that would prevent something like this?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Australian_constitutional_crisis
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mexico June 7th 2015 elections on: May 01, 2015, 10:47:46 am

It seems that MC does poll at 3%-4% so could survive but I guess tactical voting will erode this.  If this is the end of MC, I assume most of that support will flow to Morena in the next election since MC really got started by AMLO anyway.

MC was not started by AMLO -  English wiki is wrong here. It is a personal vehicle of one Dante Delgado. AMLO always had to trade for that line: they were happy to adopt him, but at a cost. This time they traded with Ebrard.

Without Ebrard they will not get as many votes.

Ebrard's legal problem, according to the tribunal, was "legal sumultaneity". MC may have decided later - but the process was already going during the PRD decision. Whatever.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders vs Cruz on: April 30, 2015, 06:10:33 pm
I think this may be the only scenario where Cruz wins

Sanders is, actually, a pleasant guy. Cruz is not. However radical Sanders is, he would create a generally sympathetic atmosphere around it. Cruz would scare people. It is more like the only way Sanders wins Smiley

People respond way more to fear than pleasantries. Cruz runs the table.

Well, here pleasantry and fear work in the same direction. Some people would vote for Sanders because he is pleasant, others will vote against Cruz because he is scary. The important thing is, nobody would vote against Sanders because he is pleasant and nobody (except, perhaps, of a few members of some masochist bondage society) would vote for Cruz because they are afraid of him Smiley
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Bernie Sanders win the presidential election? on: April 30, 2015, 04:10:24 pm
Sanders is not trying to get elected in the first place. He is running to make a point - or, perhaps, a few points Smiley In the process, he is creating a contested primary - good for the party, really. But he does not seem delusional.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mexico June 7th 2015 elections on: April 30, 2015, 03:11:49 pm
Big news today. EBRARD IS OUT.

The Supreme Electoral Tribunal has ruled that Marcelo Ebrard was simultaneously trying to get PRD and MC nomination, which is banned by law. Hence, he cannot be a candidate this year. I am afraid, it may be the end of MC.

In other news, yesterday´s gobernatorial debates in Michoacan and Nuevo Leon. Reforma gives broadly high grades to 3 out of 4 major contestants in NL (including the Independent, the PANista and the MC guy) and trashes the performance of the PRIista Pavlovich.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mexico June 7th 2015 elections on: April 30, 2015, 03:07:54 pm
I have a question about the 8% rule: Will this rule allow for overhang seats like in Germany.  

We are not as sophisticated as the Germans. If the 8% is binding, this simply means that the party in question gets no allocation from the PR, but, of course, retains the seats it won directly.  The House size is fixed. So, if PRI wins in every district, while getting 35% of the vote, it will be 300 seats for PRI, 200 for everybody else, with even number 1 on the PRI PR slate not getting in.

Not that it is very likely, though. There IS tactical voting in Mexico. And there are quite a few partisan strongholds.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Bernie Sanders win the presidential election? on: April 30, 2015, 10:22:37 am
Not against a mainstream Republican. Against a Cruz-type he could.

Maybe someone like Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, Mike Pence, aka someone with Cruz's beliefs without Cruz's abilities. But Cruz would trounce Sanders pretty definitively.

Actually, the other way around. Cruz problem is not his beliefs. Somebody with his beliefs may win - especially against Sanders. Cruz problem is, he is personally repulsive. Furthermore, he managed to quarell with too many Republicans he met. Quite a few Republican senators would be less than sincere in endorsing him if he i the nominee. And, in fact, quite a few would not mind seing him humiliated. That is not a good thing for any candidate.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mexico June 7th 2015 elections on: April 29, 2015, 10:00:45 pm
http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/pages/asi-la-preferencia-nacional.html

Financiero poll still has PRI-PVEM way ahead. 

PRI-PVEM        40
PAN                 24
PRD-PT            13
Modera            10
MC                    4
PANAL              3

I don't get that at all. A fractured left and unpopular PRI should make this a better year for PAN. They might even lose in Nuevo León, which literally doesn't make sense.

They haven't governed in Nuevo Leon since 2003. Both the incumbent and his predecessor are priista.

PAN current leadership is pathetic, small-time but obviously corrupt, and seems to be on PRI pay.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders vs Cruz on: April 29, 2015, 05:35:35 pm
I think this may be the only scenario where Cruz wins

Sanders is, actually, a pleasant guy. Cruz is not. However radical Sanders is, he would create a generally sympathetic atmosphere around it. Cruz would scare people. It is more like the only way Sanders wins Smiley
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Anti-gay lawmaker outed by man he flirted online on: April 29, 2015, 05:32:02 pm
This is not any different that outing Anthony Weiner for being straight. If you are a politician, you should, probably, try to avoid sending pictures of your dick to others. Or be prepared to have that blow up in your face.

The problem with Weiner I think was more that he was married, and apparently cheating on his wife.

The problem with Weiner, of course, was who that wife was Smiley

But, in general, the problem is always that the person in question does not want information about that sort of behavior becoming public, for whatever reason. If the politician is not trying to conceal anything (for whatever reason), there is no problem.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Anti-gay lawmaker outed by man he flirted online on: April 29, 2015, 05:28:59 pm
This is not any different that outing Anthony Weiner for being straight. If you are a politician, you should, probably, try to avoid sending pictures of your dick to others. Or be prepared to have that blow up in your face.

Pun intended, ag?

Everybody is entitled to drawing their own meanings.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: April 29, 2015, 12:39:35 pm
Nuts.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Anti-gay lawmaker outed by man he flirted online on: April 29, 2015, 12:36:58 pm
This is not any different that outing Anthony Weiner for being straight. If you are a politician, you should, probably, try to avoid sending pictures of your dick to others. Or be prepared to have that blow up in your face.
24  General Politics / Economics / Re: Question about comparing GDP using Purchasing Power Parity on: April 28, 2015, 11:27:00 pm
So I'm having some trouble understanding some of the ways that PPP is used outside of comparing the strength of currencies.

In the news, there's been some talk about how China is/already has overtaken the United States in the size of GDP, but this is only cited in terms of GDP - Purchasing Power Parity, while when comparing Nominal GDP, China still trails (but is catching up).

I understand the textbook definition of PPP, and how it is useful when comparing incomes and how much a person could buy (their purchasing power, and the Big Mac/iPad indexes), but I'm having trouble understanding the application in comparing GDP.


Could someone kindly explain this to me (In simple English, for those of us who have yet to take Macro)?

You are completely on the ball here: this is anything but very reliable science.  Cross-country comparisons are extremely tricky.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: April 28, 2015, 09:30:39 pm

Maybe this has something to do with things Braun keeps saying? Like "Eastern Europe will become a Russian-German condominium under Jewish trust"

To some extent this is happening now in Ukraine, so he is not that far from truth.


That is classy!

Ugh...
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