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May 25, 2016, 01:51:32 pm
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1  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: Today at 01:03:54 pm
I think that a new election is the best solution for the political crisis.

But a new election can take place only if both Dilma Rousseff and Michel Temer resign. Or if Michel Temer resign after the end of Dilma's impeachment process.
If he resign until December 31th 2016 (first half of the term), the new election will be direct. If he resign after December 31th 2016, the Congress will vote for the new president.

Michel Temer will resign only if there is a big pressure.
I think that, unfortunately, he will be the president until December 31th 2018.



Well, there will be pressure. At least as much pressure as Dilma faced. The question is, when is it coming to head: before or after the end of the year. It is hard to see how he survives to the end of the current term once sh**t truly hits the fan.

I have a suggestion. They should somehow get Pele into Congress, have him appointed Speaker, have Temer resign and have Pele be president for the Olympics, with election happening shortly thereafter. This is, probably, the only way Brazil avoids being a scray laughing stock right at the moment all the attention is on it.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump bashes Susana Martinez in New Mexico stop on: Today at 10:34:50 am
Shes a coward and a fraud maybe she also believes "they come out of an act of love".  

I wouldn't want her as his VP just to suck up to the illegal immigrant lobby.

Well, since every decent person would have been unpleasantly surprised if you had a nice word to say about them, I can only congratulate Governor Martinez on avoiding your praise.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump bashes Susana Martinez in New Mexico stop on: Today at 10:31:59 am
Of the NeverTrump crowd, she's probably the best candidate for an actual R->I or R->D party switch this year.  It's personal for her.

She should switch. Republican party has left her.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump ad dipicts Bill Clinton as rapist on: Today at 10:31:16 am
I am interested in the new English word. Is "dipicting' a particularly trumpist sexual deviation?
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Lindsey Graham becomes #EventuallyTrump on: Today at 10:29:49 am
So a Trump supporter told a trump, it seems. Nothing surprising.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: World's most demented electoral system? on: May 24, 2016, 06:06:29 pm
The Turkish 10 % PR threshold and its consequences are pretty undemocratic and stupid, but you can cleraly understand the political interest behind it so I guess it's not "demented" per se.

Nor is the Chilean binomial, in that sense. Both a wrong from the standpoint of the society at large, but both perform admirably the job they have been invented for.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: If Trump wins in a landslide, what happens in 2020? on: May 24, 2016, 05:41:32 pm
Say what you will about Trump, but I find it hard to see special interests's waste spending being signed under him.

You must be talking of some other Donald Trump. I think, it is pretty obvious that the Donald Trump running in this election will have only one interest in mind, and that interest will be very special: that of Donald Trump. I mean, the Donald Trump National Gambling Act is pretty certain to be passed and signed as soon as he can get away with it Smiley
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie Sanders Requests Kentucky Recanvassing on: May 24, 2016, 05:37:49 pm
I am seriously starting to wonder if he actively prefers Trump to Clinton

He, probably, does.

I don't think so.

We have pretty much no evidence to the contrary at this point, and a lot of indirect evidence that it may very well be the case. At least, by preponderance of evidence, I would say that Sanders does prefer Trump. It is on him to prove otherwise.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Austin tries to rename elementary school: goes poorly on: May 24, 2016, 04:29:04 pm

Or even the "William T. Sherman Elementary School", with a burning Confederate flag out front.

Sounds good to me.
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 24, 2016, 03:48:53 pm
The only way out of this mess that would have any chance of restoring legitimacy of governance is an early election. Ok, they have the Olympics, fine. Olympics will be closing on Aug. 21st. Campaign should start on Aug. 22nd. And till that a purely apolitical technocratic cabinet should be appointed, on condition of not approving any major policies or expenditures. Anything else is just too dangerous.

I believe the constitution neither allows for early elections, nor for a constitutional amendment to allow for them.

I do not believe that to be true. If I get the relevant provision right this is it:

Article 81

Art. 81. In case the positions of the President and the Vice President of the Republic are vacant, election shall be held within 90 days of the vacancy in the latter position.

1. If the vacancies are produced during the last two years of the presidential term, the election for both positions shall be held 30 days after the latter vacancy, by the National Congress, as provided for by law.

2.  In every case, those elected shall compelte the term of their predecessors.

The last Brazilian election was held on October 4/26 2014, Dilma started her second term on Jan. 1 2015, the term is 4 years. If both she and Temer were to resign tomorrow, elections would have to be held within 90 days. No problem whatsoever.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie Sanders Requests Kentucky Recanvassing on: May 24, 2016, 03:00:58 pm
I am seriously starting to wonder if he actively prefers Trump to Clinton

He, probably, does.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 24, 2016, 01:00:28 pm
   Did VDB discuss his refugee heritage much in the campaign?  I could see how that would have had some poignancy since the current migrant/refugee situation was a big issue in the campaign?
Also, has he ever said whether his family, or at least his father, felt any danger in the immediate aftermath of the war that they would be turned over to the Soviets as part of Operation Keelhaul?
Legally they wouldn't have been in danger of being so, as his father wasn't a Soviet citizen by 1939, but in the confusion and uncertainty of those months, there must have been some uncertainty I would think.  

Estonia had been annexed, and both parents had Estonian citizenship, I believe. So, in fact, they were "Soviet" "citizens".
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 24, 2016, 10:23:13 am
  Just read  about the background of VDB and his family history in an article in Der Standard.  His Estonian citizen parents (father of Dutch background I think?) were able to flee Estonia before the Soviets got them in 1940, to the safety (ironic isn't that) of German ruled Austria, and then fled the Red Army again in 45 to Voralberg.  His biography would actually be a nice one for someone on the right of the political spectrum, refugees from Stalin, prominent family in Estonia etc.  I must say I like him more now after reading about this background.

Father of Russian Dutch background!
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Your reaction if Sanders says this after DC? on: May 24, 2016, 10:20:49 am
It would not be entirely unexpected and would confirm my emerging opinion of Sanders. It will not at all change my views about anything else happening.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Jesse Jackson dined with Jean-Marie Le Pen, didn't know who he was on: May 23, 2016, 09:11:03 pm
Lucky guy! He did not know who Le Pen was!
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 23, 2016, 09:00:12 pm
The only way out of this mess that would have any chance of restoring legitimacy of governance is an early election. Ok, they have the Olympics, fine. Olympics will be closing on Aug. 21st. Campaign should start on Aug. 22nd. And till that a purely apolitical technocratic cabinet should be appointed, on condition of not approving any major policies or expenditures. Anything else is just too dangerous.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Anyone remember when Clinton refused to drop out in 2008 on: May 23, 2016, 08:38:56 pm
Nobody has suggested that Sanders drop out before California. But he should stop attacking the presumptive nominee.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Anyone remember when Clinton refused to drop out in 2008 on: May 23, 2016, 08:35:17 pm
Or when she didn't demand to have a say over her opponent's eventual cabinet picks?

True. She just made sure she'd be on the cabinet herself. Much better.

Let's open an embassy in North Korea and make Bernie ambassador.

Better

Too important for a screw up. I suggest Laos.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Anyone remember when Clinton refused to drop out in 2008 on: May 23, 2016, 08:34:41 pm
Or when she didn't demand to have a say over her opponent's eventual cabinet picks?

True. She just made sure she'd be on the cabinet herself. Much better.

Let's open an embassy in Cuba and make Bernie ambassador.

It has been opened.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Donald Trump a fraud? on: May 23, 2016, 07:53:18 pm
Of course, he is. It is the core of his business.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mexican state elections 2016 on: May 23, 2016, 07:52:23 pm
At least in DF, I must say, this is a non-election. There is very little campaigning going on. Of course, the mandatory partisan spots are running. PANistas are represented by the avuncular voice of Santiago Creel calling to elect them to limit the "marches" and "take the streets back," MC runs a horrid jingle that makes one want to vote for anybody, who would ban it, etc., etc., but very little otherwise. Today for the first time I have seen a Morena poster on a private home in a poorish neighborhood. The only party to have taken to the bus sides seems to be PT: given their near brush with death, at least, they understand the value of reminding others of their existence. Otherwise, nothing that I can discern. I have a feeling that 90% of the population will have no clue how even to fill out the PR ballot (I have not seen a sample myself, and I am regularly going to talk to INE people for my own reasons). In fact, most people seem only to realize it is election time when they are not allowed to renew their voting ID, because we are in the pre-election moratorium on register updates.

In other news, which should go elsewhere, but might as well be mentioned here, last Wednesday died Luis H. Alvarez, the Gandhi of PANismo. He was 96, and active till the last few months.  RIP.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Donald Trump a Radical Centrist? on: May 23, 2016, 06:53:24 pm
A Radical Centrist combines aspects of the dissident left and dissident right. They primarily anti-establishment rather than ideologues. They may support conservative positions such as immigration restrictions but may align with the left on non-interventionism, protecting entitlements, and regulating Wall Street. They tend to be moderate or ambivilent on social issues such as abortion and gay marriage.

This.

Trump does get mileage out of issue positions where the right and left converge.  This is why more Bernie Sanders supporters will support Trump than conventional wisdom suggests.  They are closer to Trump on the issues than they are to Hillary Clinton, IMO.

What the hell are you talking about?

Here's a basic political spectrum:

<---------|-----------------|-----------------|--------------------->
        Sanders           Clinton             Trump

In what world is Sanders closer to Trump on the issues than he is to Clinton? Unless you're claiming that Trump is to the left of Clinton.

Unidimensional model is inadequate even in the best of times, and this year...
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: If Trump wins in a landslide, what happens in 2020? on: May 23, 2016, 06:51:17 pm
US will be in the middle of a major war, which will justify restrictions on campaigning and other opposition activity. Trump will be the only candidate, and he will be re-elected unanimously. The National Union Party will, likewise, take the control of the Congress uncontested.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: "...there is a decent chance that the American experiment will be over." on: May 23, 2016, 06:21:26 pm
The Left is in such denial about Obama that they are projecting all of his sins on Trump.


Given that you would not be able to distinguish democracy from scrambled eggs, seriously confuse America with a drunk mongoose, and have never been able to figure out which is left and which is right even when talking about your own hands, your opinion is of limited interest here, except in the antropological sense. Sentient human beings, though, I am asking to stop and think.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: "...there is a decent chance that the American experiment will be over." on: May 23, 2016, 06:16:41 pm
I think journalists are going a bit too far with this.  There's no way in hell Franz von Papen Paul Ryan is ever going along with 1930's Europe stuff, like repealing the civil rights act and granting Trump emergency powers.  The worst case scenario is Trump = Wilson on race, not Trump = Hitler.  It would certainly be remembered as an ugly, embarrassing episode in our history if the Trump DOJ looks the other way while e.g. Arizona removes all Spanish surnames from its voting rolls, or if it maintains an unofficial policy of refusing to prosecute violence against certain groups, but if the untimely demise of Reconstruction wasn't "the American experiment will be over" then Trump won't be either, even in the worst case. 

No chance, you say?
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