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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26) on: Today at 01:57:34 pm
A progressive bloc led by Unidos Podemos may be in a position to govern according to the result of exit poll, Alberto Garzon, leader of United Left, says in televised statement.

On these results it would be an extremely weak government, that would pretty much have to give Catalans their referendum (remember, the third largest leftist group is ERC).
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26) on: Today at 10:39:19 am
Holding fingers crossed for PSOE.
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Pigfvcker Memorial Suppository for UK News: A Departure from EUtopia on: June 25, 2016, 10:14:13 pm

Great! Exactly what I thought would/should happen. There will, at least, be a coherent European voice in Westminster even after Scotland leaves.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum 2017? on: June 25, 2016, 08:39:25 pm
just because there's no way that one doesn't end bloody.

When has that stopped things from happening?
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Pigfvcker Memorial Suppository for UK News: A Departure from EUtopia on: June 25, 2016, 04:48:18 pm
Hillary Benn is planning a coup.

Honestly, is there anyone in the Labour party up to it?

Dan Jarvis maybe?

I think there are quite a few. Corbyn will not survive till the next weekend.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 25, 2016, 04:43:09 pm
So, poor Boris Johnson happens to live in London (ah, yeah, he used to be the Mayor, was he not?). Today he had some pleasant moments getting out of his home. I wonder, if he is going to find the city a very comfortable abode in the near future.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum 2017? on: June 25, 2016, 04:39:52 pm


Good!
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 25, 2016, 04:14:27 pm
Verhofstadt (the Liberal leader in European Parliament, former Belgian PM) wants to meet with Sturgeon soon. I think he will not be the only one Smiley
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 25, 2016, 04:05:11 pm
 Some more revote ideas.  How about Norway, which only narrowly rejected EU membership in 1994, and France which only narrowly approved Maastricht in 1992?

Or the Irish, who rejected the Nice Treaty in 2001 and the Treaty of Lisbon in 2008.... Oh, wait...

No, there is not likely to be a revote any time soon. Still, not unheard of.
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: David Cameron's legacy on: June 25, 2016, 02:30:15 pm
A craven opportunist who gambled his country's future for ephemeral political advantage.

That's not his legacy, that's just a objective description of him.

Gambling away his country's future is the legacy.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 25, 2016, 02:13:07 pm

Hopefully, he will be gone within a week.
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Did Putin provide assistance to the pro-Brexit campaign? on: June 25, 2016, 02:12:03 pm
Could have, though in a minor way. I do not think it mattered, even if he did - but I am pretty sure that he thinks he was crucial there Smiley
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Trump ran an openly racist campaign... on: June 25, 2016, 02:07:48 pm
His campaign would be almost as bad as this thread.

Agreed.

I am happy you are enjoying it Smiley
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum 2017? on: June 25, 2016, 02:02:44 pm
I would make one point - obviously, I'm no expert on the Scottish economy and someone else may be able to correct me on this - if Scotland should choose to leave the UK, assuming we've left the EU, then they'll be leaving the economic area with which they do nearly two thirds of their trade (I think this is the correct figure as of about 2014) for an economic area with which they do roughly 15% (indeed, it's ironic that one of the most heavily Remain areas of the UK actually does less trade with the EU than the country as a whole). Undoubtedly, again, assuming we actually do leave the EU, the Scots will have to work out some trade deal with us.

Now, I'm not saying 'ermagerd Scotland can't leave UK cos teh trade'; undoubtedly, there are a lot of other issues in play (for example, the funding Scotland receives from the EU), but it would be rather ironic if, in order to remain a member of one trading bloc, Scotland walked out of by far its  export market.

Ah, but Scotland has this cake you see, it's a sort of shortbread type thing, that you can buy at airports, that is very popular in England.

And the English are still going to want to buy that cake.

Smiley

The English are still going to trade with Europe - including Scotland. The main difference will be that the English will no longer have an input in formulating European policies, and would have to accept them wholesale, while the Scots will be on the inside, participating in setting the agenda. That is all.

Well, they'll get to participate, but as one of 28 states, and a small one at that (they'll have a maximum of around 13 MEP's, which is more than they have now but not a lot more). I doubt they'll be able to exercise the same level of influence that we have (and note that our influence, such as it was, was directed almost entirely towards stymying attempts to integrate the Union, rather than applying an agenda across it).

Well, true, they will have less influence than what you had - but they will have infinitely more influence than what you have now and will have in the future. And they will apply that influence towards making you yield on things that matter for them.

So, I am looking forward to seeing signs on Scottish roads saying things like: "built with the support of the EU, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, Liechtenstein and the United Kingdom of Small Britain and Belfast Suburbus" Smiley And, yep, you will pay for this - voluntarily, and singing:)
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 25, 2016, 01:58:55 pm
Project fear is still running i see Smiley

Imagine this: the UK will do just fine, or even better, outside the EU. Can you imagine the reaction in other memberstates? The coming years will be so interesting...

I can imagine lots of things, whether I consider them likely or not Smiley

England will do fine outside the EU. It will wind up following more of the EU rules than it follows now (e.g., it will probably join Schengen), and it will have no impact on formulating those rules. But on the surface things will not change much. They will be just a tiny bit worse than they would have been otherwise: but it will not be anything radical (except, of course, for the Scottish independence). I mean, people are unlikely to die if their incomes are 1% to 3% lower - nothing more radical than that. But in terms of "British independence" it will be exactly the opposite from what those campaigning for Brexit promised. England will be more dependent, more obedient towards Brussels - and it will have no say there whatsoever.

And, of course, it will not have Scotland.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 25, 2016, 01:09:45 pm
Regarding that petition, its now been signed by almost 2 million people. So 4-5% of registered voters, and almost 1 in 8 remain voters.


Hopefully, these will be the new LibDem voters.

Maybe they will. But the Tories from now on will be united as ever. The pro-Europe vote will be split between Labour, SNP and Libdem. So for the next ten years the conservative party will be the dominant party, i predict. By then, everyone will see that the UK will do just fine outside the EU. The Scotts will beg to return within the UK.

Tories will be very united: after a huge chunk of the party leaves. SNP will take over Scotland - no splintering there at all. England will be fine on the outside: merely somewhat poor and irrelevant, increasingly forgotten by the rest of the world.
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Remain supporters, would you have been comfortable if Remain won on the backs of on: June 25, 2016, 12:30:00 pm
Absolutely. Are Leave supporters comfortable that Leave won on the back of non-London England - with disapproval from London, Scotland, and Northern Ireland?

Well Scotland and Northern Ireland can always leave themselves. That leaves mainly London and non-London. Of the two, Londoners already have more economic opportunity, whereas non-London has suffered more by globalization and neoliberalism. So yeah, the latter is important.

Well, they will now suffer 10 times as much from their rejection of globalization and neoliberalism. I think this suffering will be good for their character Smiley

Globalization is what sustains standards of living in Britain.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: June 25, 2016, 12:27:54 pm
German president Joachim Gauck has decided not to run for a second term.

http://www.politico.eu/article/joachim-gauck-wont-run-for-second-term-as-german-president/

Sad to hear that.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: #NeverTrump GOP endorsements LATEST: Paulson and Scowcroft endorse Clinton on: June 25, 2016, 12:13:46 pm
Any bets on if Trump or Clinton will get more former GOP cabinet endorsers? 

Looks like it will be Clinton Smiley

Most former cabinet members do not have to endorse, and they will not.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 25, 2016, 12:11:42 pm
Regarding that petition, its now been signed by almost 2 million people. So 4-5% of registered voters, and almost 1 in 8 remain voters.

I dare say the wounds this referendum opened aren't going to heal any time soon.

And how do we know all of the people that have signed the petition are actually British voters?

You know the remain side is clutching at straws when it is now brining out online petitions as evidence for why we need a 2nd referendum.

There will be no 2nd referendum, unless one is forced by the results of a general elections. In fact, I suspect, once it fully settles in, it will be the Remain side that will force England to get out faster than the Leave side wants.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017 on: June 25, 2016, 12:09:04 pm
So, I am looking at the LibDem-held constituencies. Seems like they have not done too badly defending Europe. Of course, the boundaries do not coincide, but it still seems likely that Remain either won, or came very close to winning in Westmoreland and Lonsdale, Southport, Sheffield Hallam, Leeds Northeast,  Ceredigion - and of course in the Orkney/Shetland. Surprisingly, the one in doubt is Carshalton and Wallington (outer London), though still close. Only North Norfolk seems a fairly clear Leave vote. So, at the very least, the pro-Europe stance is not going to endanger the existing (tiny) parliamentary group.

And the upside is huge. Big chunks of London. Oxford/Cambridge/Liverpoool - you name it. This could be the ticket to, at least, a partial recovery.

When I talk of resurgence I do not mean LibDems forming a government or anything like that. But I do think that smthg like reliable 30-50 seats should be a possibility. In England/Wales, of course (there will be no Scotland).

That is pie in the sky I am afraid, to get 50 seats the Lib Dems would need huge swings, the 50th most easy seat for the Lib Dems to take is Watford where the Lib Dems are 25.4% behind the first place Tories!(and that is including Scottish seats, without them the swings needed to get to 50 seats would be even larger). These 50 seats also contain seats like Redcar where the Lib Dems will probably never win ever again. Remember also boundary changes are coming which will likely be very bad for the Lib Dems.

I know Lib Dems are well known for their extreme optimism. But if they decide to be realistic they should focus on holding what they have and heavily target a handful of seats where they were close to winning last time e.g Cambridge, Eastbourne (I would say Lewes but boundary changes will probably make it unwinnable). They should aim to double their representation in parliament and become stong competetors in a handful of other seats for the next election, any more than this is unrealistic.

They may well eventually get back to 30-50 seats but trust me it will take more than one election.

Ok, it might take a couple of elections. Then, again, until Scotland secedes, we may be observing Westminster elections with a somewhat increased frequency Smiley
22  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Remain supporters, would you have been comfortable if Remain won on the backs of on: June 25, 2016, 12:07:21 pm
Would have been very comfortable about that, no questions at all.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 25, 2016, 12:06:44 pm
Regarding that petition, its now been signed by almost 2 million people. So 4-5% of registered voters, and almost 1 in 8 remain voters.


Hopefully, these will be the new LibDem voters.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum 2017? on: June 25, 2016, 12:05:41 pm
I would make one point - obviously, I'm no expert on the Scottish economy and someone else may be able to correct me on this - if Scotland should choose to leave the UK, assuming we've left the EU, then they'll be leaving the economic area with which they do nearly two thirds of their trade (I think this is the correct figure as of about 2014) for an economic area with which they do roughly 15% (indeed, it's ironic that one of the most heavily Remain areas of the UK actually does less trade with the EU than the country as a whole). Undoubtedly, again, assuming we actually do leave the EU, the Scots will have to work out some trade deal with us.

Now, I'm not saying 'ermagerd Scotland can't leave UK cos teh trade'; undoubtedly, there are a lot of other issues in play (for example, the funding Scotland receives from the EU), but it would be rather ironic if, in order to remain a member of one trading bloc, Scotland walked out of by far its  export market.

Ah, but Scotland has this cake you see, it's a sort of shortbread type thing, that you can buy at airports, that is very popular in England.

And the English are still going to want to buy that cake.

Smiley

The English are still going to trade with Europe - including Scotland. The main difference will be that the English will no longer have an input in formulating European policies, and would have to accept them wholesale, while the Scots will be on the inside, participating in setting the agenda. That is all.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26) on: June 25, 2016, 12:03:07 pm
(Bloomberg) -- (Corrects to move reference to final poll in headline) Caretaker Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s People’s Party on track for 116-120 seats in Sunday’s election, according to a Gesop survey published by El Periodic d’Andorra on its website.
PP rises from 114-118 seats in Friday’s poll, down from 123 seats in Dec. 20 election
Podemos set for 83-87 seats vs 71 in December
Socialists on 83-87 seats vs 90
Ciudadanos 38-42 seats vs 40
Poll based on 900 interviews conducted June 22-24

Why not post the link to the Andorreans Smiley?

http://sondeos.elperiodic.ad/quinto-sondeo-elecciones-generales-26j.html
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