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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Hungary Parliamentary Election - April 6, 2014 on: February 26, 2015, 04:39:26 pm
I know this thread is old, and sorry for bumping it, but it would have fitted just in here:

In a by-election in the Western Hungarian seat of Veszprem, the independent candidate Zoltan Kesz won by 9 points over a Fidesz candidate, after the former MP (from Fidesz) went to Brussels to serve in the European Commission. The seat was won by Fidesz by over 20% in the 2014 election.

This would not be that memorable normally, however, this loss for Fidesz means that Orban now has lost his 2/3 majority in the Hungarian Parliament. This by-election so is seen as a message to Orban and Fidesz, who have lost popularity in Hungary in recent months. According to late polls, Fidesz is now only supported by 24% of the Hungarians. (They got 48% in the last election)

Good news! Hopefully, they will be wiped out at the next general election.


How is it good news?
}

Well, if your name is Victor Orban or Vladimir Putin, it is a bad news. For the rest of us, it is good.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Hungary Parliamentary Election - April 6, 2014 on: February 26, 2015, 02:32:49 pm
I know this thread is old, and sorry for bumping it, but it would have fitted just in here:

In a by-election in the Western Hungarian seat of Veszprem, the independent candidate Zoltan Kesz won by 9 points over a Fidesz candidate, after the former MP (from Fidesz) went to Brussels to serve in the European Commission. The seat was won by Fidesz by over 20% in the 2014 election.

This would not be that memorable normally, however, this loss for Fidesz means that Orban now has lost his 2/3 majority in the Hungarian Parliament. This by-election so is seen as a message to Orban and Fidesz, who have lost popularity in Hungary in recent months. According to late polls, Fidesz is now only supported by 24% of the Hungarians. (They got 48% in the last election)

See this article: Hungarian Voters Clip Orban's Wings With By-Election Upset

Good news! Hopefully, they will be wiped out at the next general election.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Why is Secretary of State such a political office? on: February 25, 2015, 06:26:18 pm
How about William Seward?

William Jennings Bryan?

John Quincy Adams?

Daniel Webster?

Lewis Cass?

James Blaine?

Henry Clay?

Martin Van Buren?

James Buchanan?

John Calhoun?
4  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Leaked cables show Netanyahu’s Iran bomb claim contradicted by Mossad on: February 24, 2015, 10:44:26 pm
Shockingly, the major American media outlets are basically treating this as if it never happened.

"Anti-Israel bias" my ass.

Well, arguably it IS anti-Israeli bias. Hurting Israel for domestic political reasons, aren´t they?
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Gallup national poll: widening partisan gap on Israel/Palestine on: February 24, 2015, 01:56:25 pm
It's kind of surprising that the change is that low when an American President is basically waging a diplomatic offensive against Israel. Good news in the long run.
lmao what are you talking about

In 2009, he unilaterally changed the US' definition Israel's borders, declared Jewish homes in Jewish areas of Jerusalem to be "settlements", and then spent weeks publicly denouncing Israel. It took his own party telling him to stop demonizing a US ally to get him to stop, and he's held a grudge ever since.

And when did the US - or anybody else outside Israel - have any other definition of Israeli borders?

Since when is restating an old policy - and, for that matter, one reiterated by pretty much every US president (including, for instance, both Bushes) - called a "change"?
6  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Historic U.S.-Iran nuclear deal could be taking shape on: February 24, 2015, 12:05:55 am
Although Israel won't confirm or deny having nukes, there's the assumption that they follow a no first use policy.

An assumption, that, probably is even less valid of Israel than of any other nuclear power.

Coming from you, that's very reassuring.

why am I special? I do not profess any expertise on the nukes.
7  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Historic U.S.-Iran nuclear deal could be taking shape on: February 23, 2015, 11:35:59 pm
Although Israel won't confirm or deny having nukes, there's the assumption that they follow a no first use policy.

An assumption, that, probably is even less valid of Israel than of any other nuclear power.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Gallup national poll: widening partisan gap on Israel/Palestine on: February 23, 2015, 11:34:09 pm
It's kind of surprising that the change is that low when an American President is basically waging a diplomatic offensive against Israel. Good news in the long run.

From the outside it looks like the American president is as strongly supportive of Israel as ever. I guess, when the competition is on who supports the Israeli right wing more, then going from 12 to 11.9999 on a 10-point scale sounds like treason, but it would be worthwhile to remember, that it is still a pretty much unqualified support of a foreign government: something no other US ally remotely enjoys.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Will we have a President who served in Vietnam? on: February 23, 2015, 03:19:23 pm
I would contend that we have not had a President who "served" in WWI.

Eisenhower did state-side logistics and planning, Truman fought in 1917 and 1918.

No, July 1918 to the armistice.


Well, considering that the US only entered the war in 1917, that one needed time to mobilise, train, and bring the troops to Europe, this is about how long you can expect an American to serve in WWI. In any case, Truman, unquestionably, was a combat veteran.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Will we have a President who served in Vietnam? on: February 23, 2015, 08:39:51 am
Ah, alright. The source I read said Missouri National Guard or something of the sort.

Missouri Army National Guard. In France. It is not like the US had a major standing army back then.
11  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Maduro Confirms Arrest of Caracas Mayor for Coup Plotting on: February 22, 2015, 04:41:05 pm
People like Vosem are the reason Chavez came to power and was repeatedly reelected and succeeded by Maduro.
And thank for people like Vosem, because they'll use their resources and talents to overthrow people like Chavez and Maduro Wink.

You mean, they have resources and talents?

The sad thing is, my friends, I don't know if people like myself still have resources in Venezuela. We had better hope so.

As a commited opponent of the "Bolivarian" regime, I sincerely hope people like yourself do not exist in Venezuela Smiley
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Maduro Confirms Arrest of Caracas Mayor for Coup Plotting on: February 22, 2015, 01:04:56 pm
People like Vosem are the reason Chavez came to power and was repeatedly reelected and succeeded by Maduro.
And thank for people like Vosem, because they'll use their resources and talents to overthrow people like Chavez and Maduro Wink.

You mean, they have resources and talents?
13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Maduro Confirms Arrest of Caracas Mayor for Coup Plotting on: February 22, 2015, 01:03:59 pm
People like Vosem are the reason Chavez came to power and was repeatedly reelected and succeeded by Maduro.

Exactly.

Alas, but true.
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Maduro Confirms Arrest of Caracas Mayor for Coup Plotting on: February 21, 2015, 11:50:22 pm
A American supported coup in Latin America have as much support from the general public as Russian ones in the Eastern Europe. So congratulation if Obama followed your suggestion, we could look forward to a decade with Maduro.

If the coup plotters restore democracy after the coup (probably the best possible result), I highly doubt the Venezuelan people will cut off their nose to spite their face by voting for Maduro.

There is nobody within the Venezuelan system who would be capable of pulling off a coup, as such, against Maduro; thus, any attempt at doing so would be crushed, and probably provide Maduro a decade's worth of propaganda fodder.

There are many in Venezuelan system who could do a coup against Maduro. My prime suspect would be Diosdado Cabello. The only problem is, both he and anybody else who could do this, would not at all help either the opposition or democracy.
15  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Maduro Confirms Arrest of Caracas Mayor for Coup Plotting on: February 21, 2015, 11:48:35 pm
A American supported coup in Latin America have as much support from the general public as Russian ones in the Eastern Europe. So congratulation if Obama followed your suggestion, we could look forward to a decade with Maduro.

If the coup plotters restore democracy after the coup (probably the best possible result), I highly doubt the Venezuelan people will cut off their nose to spite their face by voting for Maduro.

Such coup plotters could only exist in Venezuelan military. Do you really think it is likely that, at this point, there is anybody in Venezuelan military who "would restore democracy"?
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Maduro Confirms Arrest of Caracas Mayor for Coup Plotting on: February 21, 2015, 06:45:47 pm
A American supported coup in Latin America have as much support from the general public as Russian ones in the Eastern Europe. So congratulation if Obama followed your suggestion, we could look forward to a decade with Maduro.

In addition, at this point there is nobody capable of a coup, in any case. The opposition politicians are in no position to organize anything that could be called a coup - no guns, no power, no nothing. If the popular revolt happens (which is increasingly likely), it is going to look very different.

The most likely coup in Venezuela would be, say, Diosdado Cabello overthrowing Maduro. I do not believe the US would be happy supporting that.
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Maduro Confirms Arrest of Caracas Mayor for Coup Plotting on: February 21, 2015, 06:43:03 pm
Hopefully the White House is involved in the plotting of coup attempts.

Even if you support the coup attempts, why would you actively hope a foreign power is involved?

Maybe he wants the coup attempts to fail.

My only explanation, in fact.

Fine -- I hope the White House is ready to provide whatever aid the coup plotters want. If they think the best way to go is without clandestine North American support, then more power to them. The key point is for Maduro and the entire Bolivarian elite to go, as soon as possible, using whatever methods will work.

There are no coup plotters. A coup, in this case, means military, and the military has been both purged and (the rest of it) bought (the regime is spending whatever it has left on this). There may be a popular revolt at some point, but I am pretty sure it will not be either pre-planned or well-organized.

In any case, supporting a military coup in Latin America (or elsewhere) is not a very smart thing - either for the US government, or  for anybody else. The military rarely, if ever, makes even indifferent rulers.
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Maduro Confirms Arrest of Caracas Mayor for Coup Plotting on: February 21, 2015, 04:07:50 pm
Let's wait for the Jacobin's take on this before we prematurely condemn Maduro.

I do not think at this point it is possible to condemn Maduro prematurely.
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Maduro Confirms Arrest of Caracas Mayor for Coup Plotting on: February 21, 2015, 04:05:50 pm
Hopefully the White House is involved in the plotting of coup attempts.

Even if you support the coup attempts, why would you actively hope a foreign power is involved?

Maybe he wants the coup attempts to fail.

My only explanation, in fact.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Bihar Assembly elections 2015 on: February 21, 2015, 04:04:39 pm
So, how realistic is it for the AAP to try to break into the Bihar Assembly? Is there any real chance of them campaigning hard here?

Almost none. They would be a spoiler there - and they know it.  They also got badly burnt on trying to compete everywhere in the LS elections: they do not have resources, infrastructure, or, for that matter, appeal for that. Bihar is a very poor, very corrupt state, with extremely strong caste divisions. It also has a bunch of local strongmen and parties: the choice is not between BJP and the discredit INC there. It is exactly the wrong area for the AAP. All they can achieve by campaigning there is helping BJP win. They will not do this.

For the moment, they are talking of trying for UP when it has its election. Even that is a tall order - but, at least, they should be competitive in Delhi suburbs. Otherwise, they will go into strong BJP-dominated states, like Gujarat, where secular opposition has not been viable recently.
21  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Maduro Confirms Arrest of Caracas Mayor for Coup Plotting on: February 21, 2015, 12:48:25 pm
They are preparing for cancellation of the National Assembly elections later this year. Given Maduro's unpopularity and the ongoing economic collapse, the scale of fraud necessary to declare victory would be staggering. So, they have to either cancel the elections or ban all viable opposition candidates from standing.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Bihar Assembly elections 2015 on: February 21, 2015, 06:04:09 am
BTW, Manjhi claimed that the reason he resigned was not he was going to lose the vote of confidence but that he and his supporters were constantly being harassed with death threats from Nitish Kumar supporters and he wanted to end any chance of violence.     

He does not look like a very capable politician.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Bihar Assembly elections 2015 on: February 20, 2015, 09:51:26 pm
Checking the news, Manjhi chose not to go through the confidence vote, facing the inevitable - but without a battle that could have done further damage to the JD(U). And Nitish is calling up both Mamata and SP's Yadavs for his swearing in: to demonstrate the unity of secular forces across India. Could be a lot worse.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: February 20, 2015, 09:48:47 pm
The change in the Arab vote started in the late 80's and was basically done by the 99 election, so it is even shorter than ag's post insinuates. However, there hasn't been much movement in the last 15 years (other than between the Arab parties).

Hm. Are you sure you want to use the word "insinuate"? I think I was pretty openly stating what I was stating - and you seem to agree with me on the substance (as, of course, I would, mostly, agree with you on the timeframe).  I know, we have very different views of Israeli politics, but I still have a hard time to see what exactly you are insinuating with your "insinuate" Smiley

I thought you were insinuating that the change in the Arab voting pattern towards Arab parties is a still ongoing phenomenon (I thought this because of your use of the word increasingly in the present tense), whereas I disagreed by saying that it was really more of a single decade event that was done by 1999.

But as for your argument with Hnv, I agree with you, the numbers clearly back you up.

I was, of course, pretty clear about the 70s and 80s as being the time when Arabs voted for the Zionist parties. Still, I did not insinuate, but stated that the process is, in a very significant sense, continuing. Up until now a sizeable Arab vote went for Hadash, which, though non-Zionist, is a bicommunal party with a notable Jewish core. By forcing Hadash into the Arab coalition, the new electoral law did further the process of communal separation (Dov Khenin's and Avraham Burg's attempts at slowing that  notwithstanding).

I have been quite clear about this before and I am quite clear about this here. What, exactly, was I insinuating?
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Bihar Assembly elections 2015 on: February 20, 2015, 09:40:48 pm
Now that Manjhi has resigned (and already expelled from the JD(U) it seems), Nitish Kumar of JD(U), with the support of RJD INC CPI and an independent, will take over as CM again this sunday.  His plan is to run later in 2015 on a plank of economic development with utterly failed in 2014 due to the pro- and anti- BJP polarization. 

His plan, of course, is to run on the plank of the pro- and anti-BJP polarization. Whether he calls it "economic development" or "mashed potatoes" is pretty much irrelevant.
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