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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump will 'probably sue' Iowa over caucus results on: February 03, 2016, 06:56:44 pm
heeeeeeeeere we go

He's going all out on Cruz at his rally soon according to CNN

He should be worrying about winning NH - not complaining about Cruz in Arkansas...I don't get the logic

It is all perfectly logical if the objective is to hurt the Republican Party and have Hillary Clinton elected president.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump calls for Iowa REVOTE over his loss to Cruz on: February 03, 2016, 02:00:31 pm
It, actually, makes sense if his main purpose is to sabotage the Republican party.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Ted Cruz wins the presidency, your reaction on: February 02, 2016, 10:26:50 pm
Buy a small house in a fortified community in a not too prominent corne of Mexico and stuff it with enough food and water for a few years: enough to survive a few years of general disruption of law and order following a nuclear war north of the border.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 02, 2016, 07:34:36 am
I am very proud to be a Republican this morning. 62% of the Republican voters last night voted for a non white male.

lol is there anyone whiter than marco rubio or ted cruz

even ben carson tbh

Yes, a white person. Just because one doesn't act like what you think someone of color should act like doesn't mean they "white".

Upper class Cubans are white by any definition of the term. As white as anybody coming straight from Europe. Even if you somehow make language "colorfull",  Jeb Bush has a better claim to be "a man of color" than Cruz - and no worse than Rubio, for that matter.

My children are Mexican by birth and speak better Spanish than any of those jokers. But were they to migrate to the US nobody would think of them as "colored".
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 01, 2016, 10:50:38 pm
CNN now updates percentages to 50-50 exactly with 90% in

3 delegates gap!
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 01, 2016, 10:32:16 pm
AP says Sanders is leading in Delegates (actual delegates) 19-18. Clinton still leads in precinct level delegates 568-557.

Yum!

But how?

From what I understand none of the actual delegates are assigned today. It is some sort of delegate equivalents, all indireclty computed. Given how close it comes out, the idea of reporting not the vote but some sort of notional vote instead is looking increasingly not smart.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 01, 2016, 10:14:25 pm
The AP results (and the NYT, consequently) have not updated for the GOP for quite a while. Where are the more current results coming from?
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 01, 2016, 09:53:59 pm
I'd just like to say US pollsters can't poll for sh*t. German exit polls are usually incredibly accurate. How does Trump up by 5-7 turn into him losing by 4?

Because these are not exit polls: these are entrance polls. And this is not an election: it is a caucus. They poll people before they enter the room. In the room people speak, people talk to each other: many may change how they vote. It is a very different environment.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 01, 2016, 09:44:20 pm
The delegate equivalent margin is pretty much constant. It is 18 now.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 01, 2016, 09:41:30 pm
BREAKING: SANDERS RISES TO 49% AGAINST CLINTON'S 51%

There's still hope! Cheesy

The delegate equivalent margin stubbornly stays at 16.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 01, 2016, 09:16:21 pm
Disappointing results for Christie considering that he wanted to be the #1 Governor tonight.

On that count, Bush is still the #1 Smiley
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 01, 2016, 09:13:49 pm
It is 14 delegates. Pretty constant in raw terms.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 01, 2016, 09:10:10 pm
The gap is, consistenly, around 15 delegates. This is becoming smaller in percentage points, of course, but keeps constant in absolute terms.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Regardless of personal opinion, who do you trust to at least manage governing? on: February 01, 2016, 04:06:48 pm
Clinton, O´Mailey, Bush, Rubio, Christie, Kasich.
15  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Israel general discussion on: January 28, 2016, 02:58:01 pm
Because a sizable number of very violent people don't want that.  It's, apparently, better to try to appease these people instead of killing them.  The problem is, they don't want to be appeased.  They want what they want and if they don't get it, they will murder and convince others to murder.  Get rid of those people, stop making more of them and there will be peace in less than a year.

Of course even if we went with that solution, it would still be an amazingly hard road.  There are no easy answers here.

I did not expect such a strong anti-Zionist tirade from you.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mexican state elections 2016 on: January 28, 2016, 12:50:47 am
For the moment it does look like most of the races are PRI's to lose. Their candidates are leading in the polls, and their alliances are set.

Manlio Fabio Beltrones (the current PRI leader) might be a dinosaur, but he has forgotten more about politics than all the leaders of the other parties (including AMLO) have ever known together. He is building it up for PRI nomination in 2018, and given his (very dark) reputation, the only way he can get it, is if his electoral record meanwhile is spotless. He is giving it his best. Scary guy he is, but one has to admire his skill.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mexican state elections 2016 on: January 27, 2016, 09:02:02 pm
Puebla/Tlaxcala deal is off: both parties failed to work it out. Veracruz/Oaxaca might still be on: at least PAN has approved it.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The 45th president, on Day 1, announces a New Constitution. The Reaction? on: January 27, 2016, 02:29:23 pm
Any course of events in which the behavior of the military becomes news, is tantamount to the most radical change in US constitution order imaginable.

I suppose. It would be a unique and difficult event, but I truly think that it is more likely the military would remove him from office and return control to whoever is next in line.

If they do this without the Senate ordering the removal, the successor would be duty bound to not take the job. And if he were to take the job (say, if the president actually resigned or were killed), he would have the duty to prosecute for treason those who installed him. Anything else would be treasonable itself.

The US has a constitutional procedure for dealing with such situations. And the military has no role in it.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The 45th president, on Day 1, announces a New Constitution. The Reaction? on: January 27, 2016, 01:05:19 pm
Immediate removal of this President by the US military, followed by a trial for treason and new elections.

Which, of course, would amount to abrogation of the current Constitution. So he will get his wish in the end Smiley

Not necessarily. Congress could rush through an impeachment, or even if the military deposed him and had the VP (or House Speaker) take over, it wouldn't mean the abolishment of the Constitution. Lawmakers have passed laws they know are unconstitutional just to have them ruled that way later on, and cops have acted in unconstitutional manners as well. Their removal of him would just be a violation and then hopefully, back to business as usual.

There is a big difference between impeachment and removal (which is competely legitimate) and a military takeover. A military takeover is far outside of the US constitutional system. Any general that does it would not be able to easily restore the constitutional order, because, once it is restored, he would, almost certainly, be prosecuted for treason himself. In fact, failing to prosecute would open the doors for the military to effectively become the top court, determining legality of executive action: something that is so far outside the US constitutional system, that this by itself would result in effective abrogation of the present Constitution. The military that, whatever the  circumstances, takes the lead here, is in rebellion, and that rebellion would have to be suppressed before the constitutional order is restored. But, of course, that means that the leader of such a military junta would be loathe to give up power - since power would be the only thing keeping him out of jail. So, chances are, if such an incredible thing were to happen, it would be followed by a few years of a military dictatorship.

Again, the issue is not that the president cannot be impeached and removed: of course s/he can. But an impeachment does not require any serious action on the part of the military (all the military has to do is to follow the orders of whoever becomes president according to the line of succession after the president is removed by the Senate). Any course of events in which the behavior of the military becomes news, is tantamount to the most radical change in US constitution order imaginable.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Has Trump destroyed his chances by staying out of the Fox debate? on: January 26, 2016, 10:47:25 pm
It will depend on how the others perform. The real danger for him is not that he will be destroyed, but that he will be ignored during that debate. It could allow one of the others, if he has a good debate, to become a natural focus of the anti-Trump field.

To sum up, if I were a Republican on that stage, I would pretend that I have forgotten of Trump's existence: if others do the same we can hope to displace Trump from the news cycle, which will be the real damage.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The 45th president, on Day 1, announces a New Constitution. The Reaction? on: January 26, 2016, 07:06:26 pm
Immediate removal of this President by the US military, followed by a trial for treason and new elections.

Which, of course, would amount to abrogation of the current Constitution. So he will get his wish in the end Smiley
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: "Good guy with gun" fears movie shooting, shoots woman on: January 26, 2016, 04:23:27 pm
"The gun had dropped to the floor during the film."

Do you think there might have been a way to prevent that?

guns should have little gliders with motors attached, so that if a gun finds itself in the air, it floats.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz SuperPAC attacks Terry Branstad, declares Trump has "Branstad values" on: January 25, 2016, 01:29:57 am
Rafael Eduardo Francisco Hernandez Cruz

I am pretty sure you invented two of these Smiley
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Do you guys think Cruz may feel some type of way towards senators he endorsed? on: January 25, 2016, 01:27:08 am
That must suck, to serve in a legislative body with 99 other people and have literally zero of them publicly supporting you.

It must suck even more to no that literally zero of them support you privately as well.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should every other GOP candidate just drop out and endorse Cruz? on: January 25, 2016, 01:25:16 am
I think there is a case for Rubio and Carson doing this, since Cruz is probably acceptable to their supporters. It would probably be best for the others to stay in though, as their supporters would probably just not vote at all if they exited, and that could allow Trump to cross 50% in some of the states that have a winner-take-all threshold.

Of course, that is assuming those candidates would prefer Cruz over Trump, which is far from certain.

Rubio is a senator, and, thus, it is very likely he would prefer anybody other than Cruz to win. That anybody would include Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Devil Reincarnate.
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