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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio vs. Clinton would be a thriller. on: Today at 03:15:40 pm
The idea that a Cuban will necessarily be popular among Mexicans strikes me as... far fetched. Add to this, that as a Republican he will be blasted non-stop in most Spanish-language media...
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mexico June 7th 2015 elections on: Today at 02:41:56 pm
Iztapalapa - the largest borough of Mexico City. 1.8 mln people - bigger than many states. Morena heartland, if there is any. In fact, this is the one place where a Lopez Obrador candidate has run against PRD (and won) before. Shortly before the election day in 2009 an electoral tribunal ruled that the obradorista PRD candidate (Clara Brugada) was not properly nominated and that the candidacy will go to the runner-up in the PRD internal process. AMLO was enraged. He ordered his supporters to vote instead for the PT candidate - a semi-literate guy by the name of Rafael Acosta, but somehow known to the entire world as "Juanito".  In case of victory, Juanito was supposed to appoint Clara Brugada his second in command and then resign, leaving her acting delegada for the rest of the term. Well, Juanito won - but tried to renege and stay in the office. He was put under a lot of pressure, though, so his resistence did not last long, and Clara Brugada came to power.

Well, Morena is running this year... Clara Brugada, of course. This time there is no need of Juanito.

Reforma poll. Note that the top 5 candidates are all women

Clara Brugada (Morena) 41%
Dione Anguiano (PRD/PT/Panal) 28%
Adriana Torres (PRI/PVEM) 12%
Brisa Ortiz (PAN) 8%
Adriana Figueroa (PES) 6%
various males (MC, PH) 5%

Wait, so Clara Brugada gets to run because she never ran in 2009 but was appointed into office.  So in cases like this the no reelection rule does not apply, right ?

Technically, the only thing that is prohibited is consequitive reelection. It is only interpreted to be ALL reelection in case of the presidents and governors (in fact, though there is some precedent of former acting governors running for the same office some time later, even that is frowned upon). For mayors and legislators it has never been an absolute prohibition (and, of course, as of 2018 reelection to these positions, though subject to term limits, will be allowed). There are several ex-delegados running now. Most of them were delegados between 1997 and 2000 - so, technically, they were never elected to this position (the office was introduced in 1997, but first elections were held in 2000). But, say, Arne aus den Ruten, whom I mentioned, was delegado in Miguel Hidalgo between 2000 and 2003. The current delegado of Alvaro Obregon (Leonel Luna) is in his second (non-consequtive) term.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mexico June 7th 2015 elections on: Today at 12:57:15 pm
Iztapalapa - the largest borough of Mexico City. 1.8 mln people - bigger than many states. Morena heartland, if there is any. In fact, this is the one place where a Lopez Obrador candidate has run against PRD (and won) before. Shortly before the election day in 2009 an electoral tribunal ruled that the obradorista PRD candidate (Clara Brugada) was not properly nominated and that the candidacy will go to the runner-up in the PRD internal process. AMLO was enraged. He ordered his supporters to vote instead for the PT candidate - a semi-literate guy by the name of Rafael Acosta, but somehow known to the entire world as "Juanito".  In case of victory, Juanito was supposed to appoint Clara Brugada his second in command and then resign, leaving her acting delegada for the rest of the term. Well, Juanito won - but tried to renege and stay in the office. He was put under a lot of pressure, though, so his resistence did not last long, and Clara Brugada came to power.

Well, Morena is running this year... Clara Brugada, of course. This time there is no need of Juanito.

Reforma poll. Note that the top 5 candidates are all women

Clara Brugada (Morena) 41%
Dione Anguiano (PRD/PT/Panal) 28%
Adriana Torres (PRI/PVEM) 12%
Brisa Ortiz (PAN) 8%
Adriana Figueroa (PES) 6%
various males (MC, PH) 5%
4  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Palestinian national football team detained by Israel on: Today at 12:33:30 pm
I figured that reference would draw you in.
But you see I mean a Crimean of a certain *ahem* background. Would he be able to leave via Black Sea for instance?

I am not sure what you mean. If the "certain" background means Tartar or Ukrainian, the issue would be coming back, not so much leaving - unless they are persecuting him in particular. Otherwise, he just travels to the isthmus, walks accross the border, shows his Ukrainian documents and goes in. If the "certain" background is Donetsk/Luhansk fighter, then he would have to go through Russia, which, probably, means either a plane from Simpheropil, or a ferry from Kerch. What would be the problem?
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Palestinian national football team detained by Israel on: Today at 12:19:05 am
As he was neither entering Israel nor leaving it, no he wouldn't be.

Actually, I'll amend my statement. It's reasonable to expect a certain sort of person playing on  FC TSK Simferopol to be detained any time he left Crimea for Ukraine. However I'm not sure that's a comparison you'd like very much.

Well, if he tries traveling on a Russian passport, they would simply not let him in from Crimea - and anybody else with a Russian passport, without Ukrainian residence permit, for that matter Smiley  He could still get out of Crimea by avoiding Ukraine, though.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: May 24, 2015, 02:32:27 pm
THEY ARE STEALIN' TEH ELECTION!

Sad Sad Sad

Who's saying?
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: May 24, 2015, 02:09:26 pm
One booking agent named Gmyz (of "Do Rzeczy" Travel Agency), whose price predicitions were surprisingly accurate two weeks ago.


Trotyl <3

He does not seem to give much news now. Or am I missing smthg?
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: May 24, 2015, 01:50:52 pm
Electoral silence extended to 10.30 pm.

Wow, the turnout must be really unexpected.

You mean, no exit polls at 9?

9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: May 24, 2015, 12:01:55 pm
By 4am we have some *ahem* price projections for booking a room for a night

Cracow: $51,6
Belweder: $48,4


which booking system are you using?
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: May 24, 2015, 09:17:49 am
Yay! Some data:

Turnout by major cities:

Białystok: 19,55%
Bydgoszcz 19,6%
Gdańsk 16,22%
Katowice 16,45%
Kraków 17,20%
Lublin 17,68%
Łódź 17,33%
Poznań 18,26%
Szczecin 17,52%
Warszawa 18,12%
Wrocław 16,47%



At a superficial level are not these numbers good news for Duda?  It seems that the older Eastern cities have higher turnout than Western cities.  Of course Duda is weaker in urban areas period but he is relatively stronger in the Eastern cities.

The only two of these cities to vote for Duda in the first round are Lublin and Bialystok.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Could a more charasmatic and better politician with Bernie Sanders' views win? on: May 24, 2015, 08:45:56 am
Sanders is very charismatic, and an excellent politician in my book.
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: What's the best thing that Israel has done for America? on: May 23, 2015, 11:16:21 pm


But it is. The reason for this law being passed is very simple, which is that because of the nature of Jewish settlement in the West Bank, where Jews go in and form new communities rather than joining the existing ones, because of those residents being hostile to their presence, Jews and Palestinians live in separate communities in the West Bank, so buses carrying just Jews or just Palestinians would travel to fewer destinations and be more convenient for both groups, while buses carrying both groups would increase the length of the typical trip. It's not about being unwilling to share a bus with the other group (indeed, sharing buses among different groups of Jews within Israel has proven to be much more contentious).

I have not seen such an eloquent defence of the Nuremberg Laws in a long time.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mexico June 7th 2015 elections on: May 22, 2015, 09:10:50 pm

In other news, Ebrard has been registered as a candidate for a "suplente" spot in Congress for MC (each congressional candidate runs in pair with a "suplente" who would take his job if the candidate himself resigns/takes a leave of absence). Still waiting for the courts' decision on this.

Electoral Tribunal unanimously disqualified Ebrard from running as a suplente as well, having ruled that doing this contrevenes the previous disqualification. That´s it, folks.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mexico June 7th 2015 elections on: May 22, 2015, 04:00:01 pm
Fernando Elizondo, the MC candidate for the governorship of Nuevo Leon has withdrawn in favor of Jaime Rodriguez, "El Bronco", the independent candidate in the race.  Frankly, at this point it would make sense for the PANista to do the same - except for the possible down-ballot effects. In any case, this is becoming a race PRI may lose.

Today´s Reforma has the NL poll. Importantly, the polling was done before Elizondo withdrawal and endorsement.

Jaime Rodriguez (Independent) 31%
Ivonne Alvarez (PRI-PVEM-Panal-a local party) 26%
Felipe Cantu (PAN) 20%
Fernando Elizondo (MC) 4%
everybody else - negligible
Undecided - 15%

We may be getting some history here!

For background. Rodriguez is an ex-PRIista, while Elizondo is an ex-PANista. Elizondo has been promised the job of the cabinet coordinator in the Rodriguez cabinet (along with a bunch of other ex-PAN people who endorsed Rodriguez yesterday - after this poll was conducted). Pressure is building on Cantu to endorse Rodriguez as well.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: May 22, 2015, 03:53:19 pm
I was working and living 2 yrs in Warsaw for my then company toshiba, so don't underestimed my knowlegde of Polish political reality, bro.Smiley

Sure, that puts you on the same level with someone who's been living there and closely following his native politics all his life Tongue

That being said, I can only wish you your second round prediction will be as "perfect" as your first round one.


You know the old joke?

An engineer, a physicist and a mathematician go to the races. After the fact, they are commiserating at the pub. The engineer says: "I cannot imagine, why I lost. I measured every single muscle of every horse, I bet on the one that had to be the fastest". The physicist responds: "but you failed to take account of statistical variation. I included in my model the entire history of these races - and I still failed". Then they notice that the mathematician has a thick wad of cash, so everybody asks, how he did it. "Well," says the mathematician, "first I assumed that all horses are identical and spherical".
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: What's the best thing that Israel has done for America? on: May 21, 2015, 10:06:09 pm


How many of those articles about other countries are about public transportation policy, though? Try again.



Quite a few: China is building Brazilian roads you see. In any case, none of the articles about Israel were about a "public transportation policy". Indeed, only a shameless racist extremist would even consider describing it thus.

You are, really, giving a bad name to our fellow tribesemen here.
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: What's the best thing that Israel has done for America? on: May 21, 2015, 09:57:26 pm


Ah. Otherwise, the statement doesn't make sense, as no states classically defined as "Western" besides Israel are in a geopolitical situation where one of their neighbors is a threat (or is perceived as a threat) to the state's existence. If you're going to interpret that word literally, his post makes no sense whatsoever.



Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland, Norway all border on Russia: arguably a state less civilized and more threatening to their neighbors than anything Palestinians can ever hope to be.

Bhutan is neither Western, nor even borders on Nepal - I have no clue how that example is relevant.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: May 21, 2015, 06:28:57 pm
According to the TNS poll for Gazeta Wyborcza, Komorowski won the second debate according to 42% of those polled, against 31% for Duda.

IMHO it wasn't a knockout like the first time, since Duda and his staff obviously did some homework, but yeah.

Can you get a bit more flavor?
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: May 21, 2015, 05:16:31 pm
According to the TNS poll for Gazeta Wyborcza, Komorowski won the second debate according to 42% of those polled, against 31% for Duda.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mexico June 7th 2015 elections on: May 21, 2015, 05:07:18 pm
Fernando Elizondo, the MC candidate for the governorship of Nuevo Leon has withdrawn in favor of Jaime Rodriguez, "El Bronco", the independent candidate in the race.  Frankly, at this point it would make sense for the PANista to do the same - except for the possible down-ballot effects. In any case, this is becoming a race PRI may lose.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mexico June 7th 2015 elections on: May 21, 2015, 05:03:46 pm
In the central borough of DF, Cuauhtemoc (includes, roughly, Mexico City proper within its boundaries of a 100 years ago) Morena is running for delgado one of its leaders: Ricardo Monreal, former PRDista governor of Zacatecas and current leader of Morena in the lower House of the Congress. PRI is running Alejandra Barrios, the most important leader of street vendors in the city center.  Reforma reports the following

Ricardo Monreal (Morena) 37%
Jose Luis Muńos (PRD-PT-Panal) 22%
Alejandra Barrios (PRI-PVEM) 16%
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mexico June 7th 2015 elections on: May 21, 2015, 02:08:44 am
In latest news, the electoral tribunal has ruled that up to 100% of the monthly public financing of PVEM can be withdrawn in payment of fines that it is incuring for blatantly violating the electoral law. Of course, to read that news I had to click through a full-page PVEM advert in El Universal.
23  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Palestinians banned from riding same buses as Israelis: official on: May 20, 2015, 11:12:55 pm
Anyone think Ya'alon is trying to get hardline support for a possible leadership run? He's old but I've heard rumors...

Or he is simply an asshole, as our Republican friend here suggested Smiley

He may, though.
24  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: What's the best thing that Israel has done for America? on: May 20, 2015, 10:41:37 pm


No, Israel is definitely held to another standard. No one cares about the Moroccan occupation of the western Sahara

It will surprize you, but for many years I was getting a lot more mailings about Western Sahara than about Israel. Perhaps, because I speak Spanish and lived in Spain for a while. BTW, Mexico has both Palestinian and SPDR embassies - and they produce roughly equal ammounts of news.

In Spain, because of proximity to Morocco, I can imagine that the occupation of Western Sahara is a bigger issue than in most places. But around the world, more attention is paid to Palestine than Western Sahara, I'm afraid.


Western Sahara happens to be out of most people's mind most of the time: that slice of empty desert only interests those who speak Spanish, really. No holy sites there and not many journalists. However other, less remote places, get their share of coverage - and Israel is far from being the top item on everyone's attention, as I just tried to demonstrate

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=213125.25

BTW, as a Russian you might appreciate that up until East Timore got its independence in around 2000, Indonesians, who wished to travel to Europe, could not get a Schengen visa: if they wanted to visit Germany and France they needed 2 distinct visa stamps, obtained in 2 different embassies. You know why? Because Portugal said so. Because of East Timor. Israelis, most certainly, were never treated like that. THE WORLD HATES INDONESIA!!
25  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: What's the best thing that Israel has done for America? on: May 20, 2015, 10:32:36 pm


I interpreted Western as meaning simply "ally of America", which to be fair is a much broader usage of the term than is normal, but seems to make sense in this case, since most countries otherwise defined as Western don't have issues with bordering territories that are hell-bent on making war on them unless they are occupied. Bordering Khaled Mashal is not the same thing as bordering Elio di Rupo.

Bhutan is an "ally of America"? Well, I guess, Morocco, having recognized the US in 1787 qualifies Smiley But, frankly, few people would think of it as "a US ally". Not in the same sense as Israel, most definitely.
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