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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The liberal hysteria over Trump is nearly unprecedented on: Today at 10:18:07 am
BTW, who is Liza Minnelli?

She was in Cabaret.

I think she's Dorothy's daughter, but her father was obviously a Romulan:



This is Greek to me.

One good thing: when we no longer have electricity, I will not miss those moving pictures. Never had any use for them.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton campaign starting Latino "souls to the polls" on: Today at 06:09:10 am
Why aren't your claims in her ads?

Because the truth is so horrible, nobody would believe it. Nobody likes Cassandras.

You finally admitted it which was my point all along.

Admitted what? That most people would not believe that Trump election means nuclear holocaust? I had admitted it before I was aware of your existence. Nobody believing it does not make it not true, though.

You'll have your bunker, though. Tongue

And? Dying slightly later is no fun.

I don't know if you're serious but you're fun to post with and I enjoy your company. 

And your company, most certainly, is not at all enjoyable.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton campaign starting Latino "souls to the polls" on: Today at 03:08:47 am
Why aren't your claims in her ads?

Because the truth is so horrible, nobody would believe it. Nobody likes Cassandras.

You finally admitted it which was my point all along.

Admitted what? That most people would not believe that Trump election means nuclear holocaust? I had admitted it before I was aware of your existence. Nobody believing it does not make it not true, though.

You'll have your bunker, though. Tongue

And? Dying slightly later is no fun.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton campaign starting Latino "souls to the polls" on: Today at 02:59:05 am
Why aren't your claims in her ads?

Because the truth is so horrible, nobody would believe it. Nobody likes Cassandras.

You finally admitted it which was my point all along.

Admitted what? That most people would not believe that Trump election means nuclear holocaust? I had admitted it before I was aware of your existence. Nobody believing it does not make it not true, though.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton campaign starting Latino "souls to the polls" on: Today at 02:46:42 am
Why aren't your claims in her ads?

Because the truth is so horrible, nobody would believe it. Nobody likes Cassandras.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton campaign starting Latino "souls to the polls" on: Today at 02:18:55 am
It's pretty obvious they are trying to play on people's religious loyalites by using that word.

 ... because Trump is literally super saiyan mecha Hitler or something.

When Trump kills your family, you will stop laughing. But it will be too late.

If worst comes to worst, he blows up the whole world and we're all dead.

Well, yep. If he comes to power, this is the most likely outcome of the next 4 years.

At least that takes care of the over population lie the left is always going on about.

This seems about right


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jf9iTZ433zs

A key thing to remember is that nuclear war doesn't mean the immediate end of the world: most people will actually survive the initial nuclear strike and live a life of suffering and slowly be killed off by disease as society unravels in which the living will envy the dead:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yif-5cKg1Yo.
https://vimeo.com/18781528.


Oh no not if Trump is elected.  He'll find a way to kill us all.

But not before doing some torturing.

Yep, some of us will be dying a slow death: envying those dying fast.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Latino Decisions: Hillary up 72-18 (Full Results Tomorrow) on: Today at 02:13:35 am
https://mobile.twitter.com/LatinoDecisions/status/780177411769937920

Hillary goes up by one point since the last poll.

*Trump should not be up in Colorado at this point.


I really don't get it, why red avatars overvalue 'Hispanic power' in Colorado so much?

1. Only 14% voters in Colorado were hispanic in 2012(Exit Poll)
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/CO/president/

2. Hisapnics in Colorado almost didn't increase during 2010->2015
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/08/accessible
2010: 20.7% -> 2015: 21.3%.
just 0.6%(considering low turnouts & low reg % of Hispanics. it could be even lower than 0.6%.)

3. Hillary is not Obama. She is not attractive to Hispanics as Obama did.
I doubt of Hispanic vote shares could reach 14% in 2016.(lower turnouts %)
plus, White HS+Some college voter's turnouts would be ↑↑↑↑

White College grad+  voters save Hillary in colorado. <- it's possible scenario.
but Hispanics? I don't think so.



You are right in noting that Hispanics are but a minority in Colorado - and a minority that does not vote too much.

But on other matters you are somewhat off. Obama was not at all particularly attractive to Hispanics back in 2008 (and only somewhat better in 2012). He is the first black president - not the first Hispanic president. And, by default, the two groups do not particularly identify with each other. He got most of the Hispanic vote because he had a D next to his name - and Republicans, increasingly, are viewed as the anti-Hispanic party. There is nothing particularly special about him that HRC lacks in this respect.  But Trump is truly special here: neither Romney, nor McCain generated nearly as much of a personal antipathy among the Hispanics as Trump does.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Latino Decisions: Hillary up 72-18 (Full Results Tomorrow) on: Today at 02:12:53 am
https://mobile.twitter.com/LatinoDecisions/status/780177411769937920

Hillary goes up by one point since the last poll.

*Trump should not be up in Colorado at this point.


I really don't get it, why red avatars overvalue 'Hispanic power' in Colorado so much?

1. Only 14% voters in Colorado were hispanic in 2012(Exit Poll)
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/CO/president/

2. Hisapnics in Colorado almost didn't increase during 2010->2015
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/08/accessible
2010: 20.7% -> 2015: 21.3%.
just 0.6%(considering low turnouts & low reg % of Hispanics. it could be even lower than 0.6%.)

3. Hillary is not Obama. She is not attractive to Hispanics as Obama did.
I doubt of Hispanic vote shares could reach 14% in 2016.(lower turnouts %)
plus, White HS+Some college voter's turnouts would be ↑↑↑↑

White College grad+  voters save Hillary in colorado. <- it's possible scenario.
but Hispanics? I don't think so.



You are right in noting that Hispanics are but a minority in Colorado - and a minority that does not vote too much.

But on other matters you are somewhat off. Obama was not at all particularly attractive to Hispanics back in 2008 (and only somewhat better in 2012). He is the first black president - not the first Hispanic president. And, by default, the two groups do not particularly identify with each other. He got most of the Hispanic vote because he had a D next to his name - and Republicans, increasingly, are viewed as the anti-Hispanic party. There is nothing particularly special about him that HRC lacks in this respect.  But Trump is truly special here: neither Romney, nor McCain generated nearly as much of a personal antipathy among the Hispanics as Trump does.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How big a disaster will a Hillary Clinton presidency be? on: Today at 01:33:47 am
It will be a very conventional presidency, similar to that of Obama, but with less flair.

This and with a good chance of only being a one term president.

That is simply too early to say now. I would say, conditional on getting elected this time, her probability of reelection is exactly equal to that of any other incumbent at this point. It is going to be an unexceptional presidency.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Latino Decisions: Hillary up 72-18 (Full Results Tomorrow) on: Today at 01:32:40 am
It might all be consistent. I am afraid, white males will go off the deep end en masse.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The liberal hysteria over Trump is nearly unprecedented on: Today at 01:30:49 am
God I can't wait to see the panic that is going to be underway tomorrow by some of you all.

Me either but let's hope it happens. 

It will be nothing compared to the panic you will be feeling once Trump starts killing your family. But, honestly, I am not looking forward to that.

So vote Democrat or we'll die?  Raise that question in an ad man good luck.

Well, you will live: as long as Trump is not President. And we all will die if he is. And I mean it literally.

Do you think Clinton is being too soft?  Why isn't this in her ads?

Of course, she is. She has to be. Truth would never be believed in this case. Exactly like nobody believed the Hitler threat - until it was too late. Brits needed to lose the Battle of France for Churchill to become PM. He had no chance till then.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How big a disaster will a Hillary Clinton presidency be? on: Today at 01:27:33 am
It will be a very conventional presidency, similar to that of Obama, but with less flair.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How big of a disaster will a Donald Trump presidency be? on: Today at 01:26:58 am
Well, there is a very large probability it will result in a nuclear war and likely end of modern civilization.

In case it does not, we are, at the very least, guaranteed a general economic meltdown (at least on the levels of the Great Depression) and  long-term collapse of US influence in the world. This all will be accompanied by a surge in violence accross the US and a number of conventional military conflicts all over the world in which US will be involved. I would expect, at the very least, a million Americans and, at least, 10 mln. non-Americans to die.

Something between those 2 scenarios will happen with, perhaps a 90% probability.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton campaign starting Latino "souls to the polls" on: Today at 12:04:40 am
It's pretty obvious they are trying to play on people's religious loyalites by using that word.

 ... because Trump is literally super saiyan mecha Hitler or something.

When Trump kills your family, you will stop laughing. But it will be too late.

If worst comes to worst, he blows up the whole world and we're all dead.

Well, yep. If he comes to power, this is the most likely outcome of the next 4 years.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The liberal hysteria over Trump is nearly unprecedented on: Today at 12:03:45 am
God I can't wait to see the panic that is going to be underway tomorrow by some of you all.

Me either but let's hope it happens. 

It will be nothing compared to the panic you will be feeling once Trump starts killing your family. But, honestly, I am not looking forward to that.

So vote Democrat or we'll die?  Raise that question in an ad man good luck.

Well, you will live: as long as Trump is not President. And we all will die if he is. And I mean it literally.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The liberal hysteria over Trump is nearly unprecedented on: Today at 12:01:56 am
God I can't wait to see the panic that is going to be underway tomorrow by some of you all.

Me either but let's hope it happens. 

It will be nothing compared to the panic you will be feeling once Trump starts killing your family. But, honestly, I am not looking forward to that.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton campaign starting Latino "souls to the polls" on: Today at 12:00:18 am
It's pretty obvious they are trying to play on people's religious loyalites by using that word.

 ... because Trump is literally super saiyan mecha Hitler or something.

When Trump kills your family, you will stop laughing. But it will be too late.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton campaign starting Latino "souls to the polls" on: September 25, 2016, 11:59:32 pm
much like the Christian Coalition ... self-interested identity politics in churches dressed up as driven by "faith"

As you know all too perfectly well, in the US churches are also social clubs. Nobody is talking "faith in God" here - just "faith in vote".

Though, I must add, for over half a century Mexican opposition was sustained, mainly, by the popular local Catholic belief that God likes free elections.  Not a bad faith to have, I should say.

Having "faith in our votes" isn't something people normally say, it doesn't even make any have any meaning as a phrase.  It's pretty obvious they are trying to play on people's religious loyalites by using that word.

Not if you come from a Mexican context. I mean, President Ruiz Cortinez used to call opposition supporters "los místicos de voto"("the vote mystics" in a direct translation - though, like in English, it also sounds quite similar to "devote mystics"). And he was right: those people believed, pretty much literally, that God loved voting.   
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Hypothetical: New England, Washington, and Oregon join Canada in 2021. on: September 25, 2016, 10:54:42 pm
NY and California would go as well in that scenario Smiley
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Israel and Palestine on: September 25, 2016, 10:53:58 pm
I am afraid, increasingly, it is too late. And, in any case, it is not the US that can do it. At least, not through active diplomatic action.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How is Donald Trump even qualified to be president? on: September 25, 2016, 10:50:52 pm
He is not. But it does not matter, alas.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Luzerne County PA on: September 25, 2016, 10:48:23 pm
Axiom Strategy's latest poll has Trump up by 15 in Luzerne County.  Romney lost it by about 5.  That would be quite a swing.  Is it likely to be that big?  Probably not.

 

Quite likely, alas.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton campaign starting Latino "souls to the polls" on: September 25, 2016, 10:46:57 pm
much like the Christian Coalition ... self-interested identity politics in churches dressed up as driven by "faith"

As you know all too perfectly well, in the US churches are also social clubs. Nobody is talking "faith in God" here - just "faith in vote".

Though, I must add, for over half a century Mexican opposition was sustained, mainly, by the popular local Catholic belief that God likes free elections.  Not a bad faith to have, I should say.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The liberal hysteria over Trump is nearly unprecedented on: September 25, 2016, 10:41:42 pm
Throughout the 1930s numerous people were foretelling exactly what would happen later.

I saw that musical drama as well.  I think Liza Minnelli was in it.  Excellent soundtrack.


That is exactly what I meant. Everybody is deaf.

BTW, who is Liza Minnelli?
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The liberal hysteria over Trump is nearly unprecedented on: September 25, 2016, 07:59:31 pm
I am reading a book on the history of German exhile during the Nazi years. One thing stands out there. Throughout the 1930s numerous people were foretelling exactly what would happen later. These were smart people: writers, artists, scientists, etc. They were telling that Hitler could still be stopped, but that, if he were not stopped promptly, he would destroy far more than Germany. These were smart people, and they were right. But nobody would believe them. In fact, they were viewed as hysterical rabble-rousers, radicals, people with personal grudges, whatever... They were often persecuted by the very people they tried to warn. Well, at least 50,000,000 mln. people died to vindicate their prophecies - but nobody ever, either then or later, expressed either gratitude to them for trying to warn, or contrition for not listening to them.

It is horrible to be a Cassandra....
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