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December 08, 2016, 05:19:33 am
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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump Announces SoftBank to Invest $50 Billion, create 50,000 American Jobs on: December 07, 2016, 10:21:05 pm
Why not hire all those guys to copy Encyclopedia Britanica by hand  and pay each one of them USD$1,000,000 (of course, they would have to provide their own writing materials)?

I now remember, where I have heard about a similar case. Actually, I should have thought of it before: the hair color!
Well, I didn't think there'd be a Sherlock Holmes reference in this thread.

I am afraid, there is going to be one giant Sherlock Holmes reference in US politics for quite a long time.

Keep copying...
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump wants to bring down drug prices on: December 07, 2016, 10:16:46 pm
I mean, I do believe that a price of snorting some coke should be similar to drinking a glass of it on US streets. I will be advocating legalizing (and even subsidizing) coke transportation through my country to help Mr. Trump in his endeavor.
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: If Trump causes war with China over S China Sea and Taiwan... on: December 07, 2016, 10:08:12 pm
Do they hate China for being non-white?

Yes, they do.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will Ben Sasse face conservative challengers in 2020? on: December 06, 2016, 11:25:53 pm
He will be unseated in the primary be a radical national-sociallist. I am not sure this qualifies as a "conservative" challenge, though.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Do you think Donald Trump's approval will improve? on: December 06, 2016, 11:21:30 pm
Oh, yeah. Right before the war it will be in the 90+ range.

Wars raise the numbers. 9/11 and Persian Gulf war got each of the Bushes up to 90%.

Yep. It is just the post-war calculation may be mathematically impossible.

They'll probably forget to nuke the South Pole.

Well, I guess, yeah, there will always be some US citizens in Amundsen-Scott.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Do you think Donald Trump's approval will improve? on: December 06, 2016, 11:19:46 pm
Oh, yeah. Right before the war it will be in the 90+ range.

Wars raise the numbers. 9/11 and Persian Gulf war got each of the Bushes up to 90%.

Yep. It is just the post-war calculation may be mathematically impossible. And I do not like to predict numbers I may not be able to define.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Do you think Donald Trump's approval will improve? on: December 06, 2016, 11:17:35 pm
Oh, yeah. Right before the war it will be in the 90+ range.

I just hope there will be something to put into the denominator to calculate the percentages after the war.
8  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: If Trump causes war with China over S China Sea and Taiwan... on: December 06, 2016, 10:36:36 pm
Just to cheer everybody up!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIoBrob3bjI
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump Announces SoftBank to Invest $50 Billion, create 50,000 American Jobs on: December 06, 2016, 09:16:50 pm
Why not hire all those guys to copy Encyclopedia Britanica by hand  and pay each one of them USD$1,000,000 (of course, they would have to provide their own writing materials)?

I now remember, where I have heard about a similar case. Actually, I should have thought of it before: the hair color!
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Would the US be better off with a multi-party system? on: December 06, 2016, 03:16:31 pm
You cannot just decree a multi-party system. To get there you would have to change the government and electoral systems first. Under the current constitution, anything other than a two-party system can only exist as a short-term transition state. Those two parties do not have to be called "Democratic" and "Republican", but, whatever they are called, there can only be two.
11  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: If Trump causes war with China over S China Sea and Taiwan... on: December 05, 2016, 07:47:10 pm
Nuclear war. 1 bln. Chinese and 200 mln Americans die.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 05, 2016, 07:42:04 pm
When all is said and done, this is going to be a good victory.
13  General Politics / Economics / Re: Trade War+Speculative Bubble=? on: December 05, 2016, 07:37:10 pm
Thanks, curious though and anybody can answer this; if there was a trade war with high tariffs introduced would it cause temporary pain while possibly leading to an increase in manufacturing long-term if it was permanent and reshaped the economy in such a way that it was more expensive for companies to relocate? My thought is that it wouldn't necessarily lead to an increase in jobs in the current economy but maybe more automated ones.

It will cause current pain and, of course, a restructuring of the economy, but at a lower long-term steady-state growth path. And I am not even sure there would be more manufacturing in the US, automated or not - though there may be.

Without going through the details, let me just give one reason (one of many) why things would be tough. For the last many years, the Chinese have delayed their consumption, lending to the US, in part, to make sure US can continue buying Chinese-produced goods. Well, suppose US stops buying those goods: there is no longer any reason for the Chinese to continue lending, what is, in the end, their savings. So, I am sorry guys, you will have to pay it back a bit earlier than you have thought you would have to. And if you decide to refinance the debt with other lenders, without the Chinese providing the liquidity you will have to pay much higher interest. Of course, since your debt is all in dollars, so you could, in principle, inflate out of it. But that, of course, would imply the loss of dollar´s position as an international reserve currency - implying still higher (real) interest rates if you want to borrow in the future.

So, even if you forget the (very serious) losses due to no longer exploiting the benefits of trade itself, you will be forced to readjust to much more modest living for the long term if only for this reason.
14  General Politics / Economics / Re: Unemployment Rate Drops to 4.6% on: December 05, 2016, 10:32:38 am
And you had to vote for Donald Trump. Trump's plans will (hundreds of economists back me up) skyrocket the debt, cause a trade war and cost millions of jobs. Republicans, your racism and sexism blinded you to facts.

I mean, yeah, economically we all, everywhere, are going to be badly screwed. Because of that alone, aI am afraid, generations of people in the US and worldwide will be remembering 2016 as the last year ever they felt economic prosperity and  security. But, frankly, this may be the lesser of our troubles.

Did you see Trump's tweets this morning about the 35% tariffs? I'm beginning to believe they become reality at some point during the first term…

Very likely they will. And (net) millions of jobs in the US will be lost as a direct result. As, of course, will be millions of jobs everywhere else. The guy is hell-bent on making sure he screws everybody.

Agreed. I think that this also speeds up automation, as I think many factories will just simply try to automate jobs, rather than deal with the tariffs. It will be interesting.

Well, he could also tax R&D and prohibit education. Would, of course, move those things abroad: but would also have very salutary effects for his own electoral prospects.
15  General Politics / Economics / Re: Unemployment Rate Drops to 4.6% on: December 04, 2016, 10:51:11 pm
Isn't it 3.0%? But the range is 3-5%, so functionally yes.

Maybe wage growth will grow with the tightening job market but I'm curious if that will happen, given the pressure on wages. My guess is that wage growth will remain weak for the next couple of years. But I could be wrong.



Well, remember, that as soon as the wage growth picks up, the Fed will hike the rates to make sure that rise is dampened.

Which would be a very stupid thing for the fed to do.  Inflation basically isn't a thing any more.

And you want it to be?
16  General Politics / Economics / Re: Unemployment Rate Drops to 4.6% on: December 04, 2016, 10:49:28 pm
And you had to vote for Donald Trump. Trump's plans will (hundreds of economists back me up) skyrocket the debt, cause a trade war and cost millions of jobs. Republicans, your racism and sexism blinded you to facts.

I mean, yeah, economically we all, everywhere, are going to be badly screwed. Because of that alone, aI am afraid, generations of people in the US and worldwide will be remembering 2016 as the last year ever they felt economic prosperity and  security. But, frankly, this may be the lesser of our troubles.

Did you see Trump's tweets this morning about the 35% tariffs? I'm beginning to believe they become reality at some point during the first term…

Very likely they will. And (net) millions of jobs in the US will be lost as a direct result. As, of course, will be millions of jobs everywhere else. The guy is hell-bent on making sure he screws everybody.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 04, 2016, 05:06:15 pm
Uff.

Well, coming after the LibDem by-election success, it seems the good guys are starting to fight back!
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will Trump be a better President than Obama? on: December 02, 2016, 07:43:56 pm
I will be pleasantly surprised if he's a better president George W. Bush. I dont think he'll hold a candle to Obama.

Yeah, he will turn out to be infinitely worse than W.
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Political parties with misleading names on: December 02, 2016, 07:22:17 pm
A few parties with names that are not so much misleading, as double-entendre.

Renewed Democratic Liberty party in Guatemala. Libertad Democrática Renovada, usuall simply abbreviated as LIDER. 

The other good one is the AMLO party in mexico: National Regeneration Movement, which in Spanish is Movimento de Regeneración Nacional. It is better known by its initials as MORENA ("dark-skinned", in a feminine form), in, I am afraid, less than a subtle suggestion.
20  General Politics / Economics / Re: Unemployment Rate Drops to 4.6% on: December 02, 2016, 06:55:19 pm
And you had to vote for Donald Trump. Trump's plans will (hundreds of economists back me up) skyrocket the debt, cause a trade war and cost millions of jobs. Republicans, your racism and sexism blinded you to facts.

I mean, yeah, economically we all, everywhere, are going to be badly screwed. Because of that alone, aI am afraid, generations of people in the US and worldwide will be remembering 2016 as the last year ever they felt economic prosperity and  security. But, frankly, this may be the lesser of our troubles.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Gambia Presidential Elections - shocking results atm on: December 02, 2016, 01:06:10 pm
Quote
Gambians voted Thursday by placing marbles into drums marked for each candidate.

I want this voting method.

I am shocked Gambian government could not have enough marbles to stop the loss.
22  General Politics / Economics / Re: Unemployment Rate Drops to 4.6% on: December 02, 2016, 01:00:05 pm
Isn't it 3.0%? But the range is 3-5%, so functionally yes.

Maybe wage growth will grow with the tightening job market but I'm curious if that will happen, given the pressure on wages. My guess is that wage growth will remain weak for the next couple of years. But I could be wrong.



Well, remember, that as soon as the wage growth picks up, the Fed will hike the rates to make sure that rise is dampened.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015-2020 on: December 02, 2016, 10:05:42 am
Great news!

LibDems will recover. Hopefully, they again hold the balance in the next Parliament.

I mean, can't a few Remain Tories just resign/switch to independent to deny her the majority? i know, she still has the Unionists, but, for god's sake, make her life uncomfortable!
24  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Are we entering a new poltiical era characterized by neo-nationalism? on: December 01, 2016, 11:01:16 am

This doesn't end well. That's how a Trumpian figure rises to power. The economic elites have reaped what they sewed.

Well, good, "elites" are done with. Now is the time for the "non-elites" to reap what they trully wanted: poverty, radical inequality, famine, war and death.

I hope you arestill arnd here in 3 years. I will remind you these words.

There's not gonna be an apocalypse. When Reagan was elected people were terrified that he'd start a hot war with Russia or start a war with Iran over the hostage crisis.

Calm down.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Does Trump deserve a chance? on: November 30, 2016, 06:33:57 pm
what does he/do you/should we hope trump succeeds at?

Tending the republic.  Guarding precious freedoms.  Executing the law in an unprejudiced manner.  Keeping us from war, poverty, strife, and hunger.  Leaving our nation better than he found it.


Well,  he has repeatedly said that he would mistreat the republic. Destroy freedoms. Use the law to play favorites.  Fight aginst peace, for the spread of poverty, promotion of strife and organization of famine. And that he would definitely insist on destroying the nation he has found.

I mean, what you would consider success he would consider a personal failure.
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