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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 29, 2014, 01:09:13 pm
Apparently, so far the seat distribution seems to be (including the FPTP with, I guess, at least some assignment of the independents to the parties they actually belong to - it is not infrequent for a party member to "self-nominate")

Poroshenko Bloc 137
Popular Front 82
Samopomich 33
Opposition Bloc 29
Radical Party (Lyashko) 22
Batkivshchina 18
Svoboda 6
Right Sector 3
Strong Ukraine 1
Zastup 1
Independents 94
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 29, 2014, 12:30:24 pm
Almost there.

99.41% reporting

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 22.17%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.82%
Samopomich 10.99%
Opposition Bloc 9.38%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.45%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.68%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.71%
Communists 3.86%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.11%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.10%
Agrarian Union Zastup 2.65%
Right Sector 1.81%
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 28, 2014, 09:18:33 pm
With almost complete results, somebody counted the total number of ultra-right nationalists MPs in the new Rada. There will be a total of 13 (including the Right Sector Yarosh, the 6 FPTP Svoboda people, a few independents and random ultras on the Radical Party slate). Of these, 1 is Jewish - in fact, an Israeli citizen (the Right Sector spokesman Bereza, elected as independent) - and 1 is over 80 and senile (Shukhevich, elected on the Radical Party slate - the guy is a major symbol due to his father, who was the famed Anti-Soviet partisan commander during and after WWII; the son spent most of his life in Soviet concentration camps and prisons and has never been elected till now; putting him on the slate had, of course, a lot of symbolic value, appealing to nostalgic - and, yes, ultranationalistic - vote). Overall the Rada has 450 seats, of which this election will fill 423. Thus, 13 ultras for 410 others. A most fascist outcome, for sure.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 28, 2014, 06:10:27 pm
97.65% reporting

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 22.19%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.82%
Samopomich 11.01%
Opposition Bloc 9.34%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.44%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.69%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.72%
Communists 3.85%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.11%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.09%
Agrarian Union Zastup 2.65%
Right Sector 1.81%
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 28, 2014, 06:08:36 pm
How come the Poroshenko bloc won so many more seats than Popular Front despite the popular vote tie?

These are just the FPTP seats. Basically, there are 225 PR seats and 225 FPTP seats (of which 27 had no election this time due to Russian occupation of Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, so they will stay vacant for the moment). Allocation of the PR seats is pending the final count.

Given the closeness of the party list vote and the lopsidedness of the FPTP results though, the Poroshenko Bloc will be the largest party even when both are combined.

Yes, of course, nobody has ever doubted that. The difference will be about 40 seats. Not nearly enough to form the government, though. Also, keep in mind, the FPTP MPs are pretty independent, irrespective of which line they chose for nomination. Ukrainian politics is not famous for party loyalty Smiley
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 28, 2014, 02:47:55 pm
Nearly there. 96.08% reporting

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 22.22%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.81%
Samopomich 11.03%
Opposition Bloc 9.30%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.44%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.69%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.73%
Communists 3.83%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.11%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.09%
Agrarian Union Zastup 2.66%
Right Sector 1.81%
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 28, 2014, 02:44:37 pm
How come the Poroshenko bloc won so many more seats than Popular Front despite the popular vote tie?

These are just the FPTP seats. Basically, there are 225 PR seats and 225 FPTP seats (of which 27 had no election this time due to Russian occupation of Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, so they will stay vacant for the moment). Allocation of the PR seats is pending the final count.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 28, 2014, 09:31:13 am
94.56% reporting

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 22.22%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.81%
Samopomich 11.01%
Opposition Bloc 9.29%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.44%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.69%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.73%
Communists 3.84%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.11%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.09%
Agrarian Union Zastup 2.67%
Right Sector 1.81%
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 11:44:29 pm
83.33% reporting

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 22.01%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.64%
Samopomich 10.98%
Opposition Bloc 9.48%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.46%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.69%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.69%
Communists 3.91%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.15%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.10%
Agrarian Union Zastup 2.74%
Right Sector 1.82%
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 11:41:51 pm
Volya means Will, I think. Anyone got any idea who they are?

Freedom, actually. To Svoboda's Liberty.

To be fair, all three concepts are sort of tied up with each other, and I might be missing nuances in the Ukrainian that aren't present in the Russian, but as a native Russian speaker who also speaks fluent English, I would say that Svoboda=Freedom, Volya=Will, and that Liberty would probably best be translated Vol'nost', which comes from the same root as 'Volya'.

Volya has multiple meanings in Russian. It is used in expressions like "last will" (последняя воля), it is true. But it is also used in expressions like "to set at liberty" (выпустить на волю). Given the words of the Ukrainian anthem ("Ще не вмерла України ні слава, ні воля") I would take the context to be the latter. Though, of course, the double meaning is there.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 10:31:41 pm
Volya means Will, I think. Anyone got any idea who they are?

Freedom, actually. To Svoboda's Liberty.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 07:09:22 pm
FPTP constituencies so far leading

Independents 97
Poroshenko Bloc 62
Popular Front 20
Svoboda 6
Opposition Bloc 2
Batkivshchina 2
Strong Ukraine 2
Samopomich 1
Right Sector 1
Volya 1
Zastup 1

I assume Independents are mostly Oligarchs supported forces.

Wide variety. Many are longtime MPs, many of them from the erstwhile PR. Some are field commanders, who did not join any party. Etc., etc.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 06:55:16 pm
FPTP constituencies so far leading

Independents 97
Poroshenko Bloc 62
Popular Front 20
Svoboda 6
Opposition Bloc 2
Batkivshchina 2
Strong Ukraine 2
Samopomich 1
Right Sector 1
Volya 1
Zastup 1

And the number of women on this list is down to 2 (both from Lviv, one from Samopomich, 1 from Prosohenko´s Bloc).
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 06:36:28 pm
80.84% reporting

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.94%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.61%
Samopomich 11.03%
Opposition Bloc 9.53%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.43%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.69%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.70%
Communists 3.92%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.14%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.12%
Agrarian Union Zastup 2.73%
Right Sector 1.83%
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 03:43:28 pm
77.25% reporting

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.95%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.54%
Samopomich 11.08%
Opposition Bloc 9.58%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.40%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.68%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.73%
Communists 3.93%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.13%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.12%
Agrarian Union Zastup 2.72%
Right Sector 1.84%
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 03:31:13 pm
Lots of wasted votes. Third largest party is people who didn't get in.

Actually, it is the largest party - just under 23% of the vote. But it is not too bad for this electoral system.

23% seem pretty high when compared to Germany who also have a 5% threshold.  Even Greece in May 2012 had only 19% vote for parties below the 4% vote share and that was a chaotic election in terms of party system.  It does make sense since there was a significant realignment of parties and voter preferences since the last election so every party wants to try out its chances alone.  As long as no big changes takes place in the party system (which given Ukraine seems unlikely), the next election should have a much smaller vote share for parties that did not make it past the threshold.

It's the matter of one party coming really close to the threshold and still not making it. Get a tiny bit more to Svoboda, and it drops to around 18%.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 02:40:35 pm
Lots of wasted votes. Third largest party is people who didn't get in.

Actually, it is the largest party - just under 23% of the vote. But it is not too bad for this electoral system.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 02:24:14 pm
75.09% reporting

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.93%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.50%
Samopomich 11.10%
Opposition Bloc 9.62%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.39%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.67%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.73%
Communists 3.92%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.14%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.11%
Agrarian Union Zastup 2.72%
Right Sector 1.84%
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 01:09:27 pm
So the agrarian party that's doing pretty okay is linked to former president Yushchenko. Remember him?

I wonder about this women's party that's doing okay. Didn't Kuchma's wife led a women's party? Is this the same one?

What's it's name?

Solidarity of Ukrainian Women. 0.66% of the vote. I do not know if it qualifies as "ok"
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 12:50:27 pm
Oh God. Svoboda is increasing every time.

Far too slow. Still at 4.72% with 70.86% reporting.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 12:44:46 pm
69.71% reporting

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.79%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.47%
Samopomich 11.12%
Opposition Bloc 9.75%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.39%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.66%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.72%
Communists 3.94%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.15%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.11%
Agrarian Union Zastup 2.73%
Right Sector 1.86%
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 11:24:46 am
65.88% reporting. Fairly similar, though trends continue


Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.70%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.41%
Samopomich 11.12%
Opposition Bloc 9.86%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.37%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.66%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.70%
Communists 3.95%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.16%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.12%
Agrarian Union Zastup 2.75%
Right Sector 1.87%
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 08:18:35 am
I wonder what the worst record for gender imbalance in modern times, in free elections and in the cultural West (or thereabout) is.

Out of 200 constituency seats, women are currently leading in 4, and one of these may not hold. From what I know of Ukraine, the vast majority of women are in the workforce, they are near parity in the free professions and most, if not all, people would not have a problem voting for a female candidate.  Odd that the results are so lopsided.

FEMEN is from Ukraine. I always thought that was kind of weird. Maybe there's an undercurrent of sexism we don't know about.

What do you mean we do not? We do. Of course, it is equally strong, if not stronger in Russia: but in Russia you go to prison for FEMEN-style actions.

BTW, of the women winning in FPTP districts 2 are from Lviv and 1 from Volyn. Bloody fascists.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 02:53:37 am
I wonder what the worst record for gender imbalance in modern times, in free elections and in the cultural West (or thereabout) is.

Out of 200 constituency seats, women are currently leading in 4, and one of these may not hold. From what I know of Ukraine, the vast majority of women are in the workforce, they are near parity in the free professions and most, if not all, people would not have a problem voting for a female candidate.  Odd that the results are so lopsided.

Well, there will be much more on the PR part. Of the 60 names in the top 10 of the above-the-threshold lists, there are 17 women (5 in Samopomich, 3 each in Poroshenko Bloc, Popular Front and Batkivshchina, 2 in Opposition Bloc and 1 with Lyashko) . At least those 17 are pretty much guaranteed to be in.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 01:34:22 am
Interesting result from Donetsk. Districts 41-44 are the city proper, and there was no election there. However, District 45 takes in the suburb of Avdiyivka, which is under Ukrainian control. A long time local MP, erstwhile PR member, Zvyagilsky, gets into the Rada there with just under 1500 votes (72% of those cast - there weren't many precincts open in the district).
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