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October 22, 2014, 01:27:15 am
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Paul's conspiracy theorist past on: October 21, 2014, 09:59:01 pm
There have been many people that have been silenced due to their "conspiratorial" viewpoints. Paul doesn't display them currently which is why he hasn't been silenced fully.

Let's say you're a member of a shadowy cabal that pulls the strings controlling the country. A guy's running for the US Senate, and based on even just his public statements of the preceding two years, he's clearly on to you. And he's the son of a Presidential candidate who was definitely on to you. Wouldn't you...

  • Use some form of extortion/bribery/pressure to dissuade him from running?
  • Massively bankroll his opponent?
  • Make sure your lapdogs and shills in the media relentlessly attack him?
  • Rig the vote against him?
  • Use your influence to paint him as an ineffective black sheep in the legislature?
  • Have anyone other than him lead his party on the committees that oversee crucial elements of your master plan?

You might notice that none of these happened. Either there's no overarching conspiracy or they're ineffective/inattentive as all hell.

That's not to say that there isn't egregious corruption in some elements of the government, or that people have not been silenced to hide them- but at most they are the actions of self-interested individuals with insufficient oversight, and not some master conspiracy devoted to changing the fabric of our nation.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Georgia's Very Own Megathread! on: October 21, 2014, 08:05:29 pm
Dem unknowns

Not to rekindle that discussion we had about the unknowns from a while back but do you think a lot of the unknowns might be Hispanics?

I imagine a lot would decline to state their race because of paranoia over profiling, plus checking multiple boxes (e.g. both "Hispanic" and "white" for example) might be processed as unknown?
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Georgia is absolutely smashing its VR records (three graphs + two articles) on: October 21, 2014, 08:02:22 pm
I'd venture that Hispanics are most likely to decline to state their race
4  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Most Serene Squirrel for President on: October 21, 2014, 07:53:11 pm


Most Serene Squirrel meeting with foreign dignitary
5  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Most Serene Squirrel for President on: October 21, 2014, 07:47:24 pm
New Logo

6  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Most Serene Squirrel for President on: October 21, 2014, 07:26:51 pm
A leader we can all believe in!



Only Most Serene Squirrel can truly unite our nation in these trying times.

Write in Most Serene Squirrel for President and Bacon King for Vice President so that Atlasia can be restored to its former glory
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: October 21, 2014, 07:09:40 pm
Doing some catch-up here

I know it's early but:

going for the ride is its own reward.

I'd like to propose this for next season's title
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Paul's conspiracy theorist past on: October 21, 2014, 03:42:21 am
On some level I appreciate that a prominent national politician is a true believer conspiracy nut, even if his beliefs are somewhat closeted now, because it allows me to rest easy and be absolutely certain that those conspiracies are categorically false. If there hypothetically was a vast New World Order running the goverment from behind the scenes, this guy would obviously have been silenced and/or not allowed anywhere near a major public office (especially considering he's the Ranking Member of the Senate Subcommittees in charge of FEMA oversight and interactions with the UN).
You don't make any sense or understand your own position.



please do elaborate
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NH-01/NH-02-YouGov: Shea-Porter up 17, Garcia up 5 on: October 21, 2014, 12:16:21 am
This is the second poll in a row with results like this and they agree with my own hunch of these two races. I don't really see what's so incredulous here.

A 17 point margin for Shea-Porter is pretty incredulous

Admittedly the +3 margin in the UNH poll is probably closer to reality, my response is mostly aimed at the overall inredulity people are displaying about Garcia polling better than Guinta.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NH-01/NH-02-YouGov: Shea-Porter up 17, Garcia up 5 on: October 20, 2014, 11:52:35 pm
This is the second poll in a row with results like this and they agree with my own hunch of these two races. I don't really see what's so incredulous here.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Are Unreleased internals dictating Triages? on: October 20, 2014, 07:22:59 pm
My understanding is that campaign internals can tailor their questions to determine specifically if their own strategy goals are being met - e.g.: does Big Budget Attack Ad sufficiently sway Target Group A to support the candidate? Is Target Group B motivated enough about voting that the campaign's GOTV effort will be effective? Is the ground game in Region A swaying the votes it needs to?

I think a triage happens when the results of such questions demonstrate that the campaign's overall path to victory is essentially untenable. Especially when it's late enough that they don't have the time/resources/etc to reformulate a brand new game plan from scratch.

So yeah I think there's a lot more to it than "my poll is super accurate and we are down three points oh no abandon ship everyone!!"
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NH: YouGov: Shaheen leads by three in poll for UMass Amherst on: October 20, 2014, 06:40:22 pm
KCDem stop being a turd
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Attention Whoring: Seeking advice regarding depression/meds on: October 20, 2014, 05:27:20 pm
You working out? If not, try it, and try it hard, no matter how depressed you are prior to commencing. That might be your best therapy. I mean that.

^^^^^^

This is excellent advice
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Attention Whoring: Seeking advice regarding depression/meds on: October 20, 2014, 03:42:48 pm
Sorry to hear you're having a hard time.  I'm not well-versed in particular medicines.  But one thing I've heard that pretty consistently works well is a serotonin re-uptake inhibitor.  Serotonin of course is one of our major feel-good chemicals, but one of the things that happens in depression is decreased binding of serotonin to its receptors, and the excess serotonin instead gets reabsorbed by other tissues.  So, uptake inhibitors prevent serotonin from getting reabsorbed, and compel the brain to produce more receptors that serotonin can bind to.  That over time, if the dosage can be maintained adequately, should improve your general feeling and mood.  Maybe you're on one already, but just thought I'd pass that on.

The Lexapro he's on is a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor Smiley
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Attention Whoring: Seeking advice regarding depression/meds on: October 20, 2014, 02:42:36 pm
Cut the coffee! Mixing heavy caffeine intake with a strong stimulant like Adderal has terrible side effects, including the potential to cause some severe anxiety problems. Ask your doctor about taking propranolol at a low dose to mitigate the jitteriness and tremors; when I was taking Adderal it made my hands shake really bad so my psych put me on propranolol and it fixed the problem perfectly

I used to take the same three medications you did, but they've all since been switched out for something else. If/when you quit Lexapro make sure you spend a full month at the very least tapering it off because the withdrawal is horrible.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will the 2016 GOP primary feature Flavor of the Month action? on: October 20, 2014, 02:31:59 pm
For 2012, eleven people led in multiple nationwide GOP primary polls:

Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Newt Gingrich, Chris Christie, Donald Trump, Rick Perry, Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Santorum

So far in 2016 polling, we've already had nine different people do this (including four of the same people from last time) and we're still over a year away from the Iowa Caucus!

Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Ted Cruz

If anything, this Republican Primary will be even more exciting and turbulent than the last one. Also my money is on Bobby Jindal to be the Huckabee/Santorum of this cycle, where he's stuck in the single digits but ends up surging into the spotlight thanks to an excellent ground game in Iowa
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could anyone more irrelevant than George Pataki run for president? on: October 20, 2014, 02:02:31 pm
John Bolton
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: 2014 Selfie Creepfest/Post a picture of yourself thread on: October 20, 2014, 02:00:31 pm
Yes, BK I remember Maple Street well. All the drunk and stumbling students on that dark little road made easy pickings for the robbers and rapists. There was a really good Middle Eastern restaurant over there with an attached laundromat. I forget the name of it.

My favorite Maple Street restaurant was Favori's but yes the Middle Eastern laundromat/restaurant had the best gyros!
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cohn (NYT): Early Voting Offers No Proof That Dems Have Improved Turnout Effort on: October 20, 2014, 01:08:14 pm
1. It's ridiculous to make any assessment based on early voting numbers when only two days of early voting have occurred so far

2. If you're going to be saying "Democrats donít just need voters who didnít participate in 2010; they need people who wouldnít have participated in a hypothetically competitive race in 2010" then what in the world are you looking at Early Voting for, you should be looking at new voter registrations to see if there's any major trend among new voters

3. There is no point in trying to make a trend by comparing early voting numbers in different states that are having different elections with distinct campaigns and varying candidate quality

4. It's ridiculous to highlight Colorado as a state that's had very competitive elections for two consecutive midterms, and then imply that the Democrats aren't being effective if they don't improve on their 2010 early voting performance there. Last time I checked the Democratic candidates won in Colorado with the 2010 early voting numbers looking exactly the way they did
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Paul's conspiracy theorist past on: October 20, 2014, 06:29:31 am
On some level I appreciate that a prominent national politician is a true believer conspiracy nut, even if his beliefs are somewhat closeted now, because it allows me to rest easy and be absolutely certain that those conspiracies are categorically false. If there hypothetically was a vast New World Order running the goverment from behind the scenes, this guy would obviously have been silenced and/or not allowed anywhere near a major public office (especially considering he's the Ranking Member of the Senate Subcommittees in charge of FEMA oversight and interactions with the UN).
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: 2014 Senatorial Predictions on: October 20, 2014, 05:31:23 am
Here's my newest map:



The states I'm least certain about are IA, NH, KS
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: 2014 Selfie Creepfest/Post a picture of yourself thread on: October 20, 2014, 04:46:51 am
I'm totally down for some #AtlasThrowback selfies

This picture was taken at the Tulane Democrat's election night party in 2008, immediately after Barack Obama was declared President-elect (if nothing else, that street sign in the background will mean something to memphis)



and this was me about a year before that, preparing to attend Homecoming as a high school senior:

23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA: WRBL/Ledger-Enquirer: Nunn +1 on: October 20, 2014, 04:35:55 am
It should be noted that the GA legislature had no difficulties in passing a bill that officially enshrined the judge's calendar into law for the 2014 cycle, once the judge had ruled

The easy thing Georgia could have (and should have) done would be to give overseas absentee voters a ranked choice ballot for the runoff, which is how LA/SC/AL/MS comply with the Federal law
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Look and Layout Preferences #12: Show quick-moderation on message index on: October 20, 2014, 04:26:36 am
Oh icons does this!

Now my oppression of the forum will be simpler than ever



(from top to bottom: delete, remove, sticky, move)
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Look and Layout Preferences #12: Show quick-moderation on message index on: October 20, 2014, 04:21:08 am
Oh cool, I learned something!

I can't tell if "icons" does anything but "checkboxes" puts a lil checkbox at the top right of everyone's posts, and adds this new button at the bottom of the page:



thank you solarstorm for making my moderatoring slightly more effortless, though I have no idea why this look/layout option is available to you plebians non-moderators
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