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December 10, 2016, 03:49:32 am
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1  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: ARDA Survey (2) on: December 01, 2016, 08:15:14 am
Born-Again-- no

Bible-Believing-- no

Charismatic-- no

Theologically Conservative-- no

Evangelical-- no

Fundamentalist-- no

Theologically Liberal-- unsure

Mainline-- no

Pentacostal-- no

Seeker-- no

Religious Right-- no

Moral Majority-- no
2  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: When will somebody put up a new state PVI chart? on: November 26, 2016, 01:16:10 am
Here's my table based on the current numbers on Leip's page.

here let me copy your chart with different formatting so I can parse it more easily:


State2012 PVI2016 PVINet
ALR+14R+140
AKR+12R+9D+3
AZR+7R+5D+2
ARR+14R+15R+1
CAD+9D+12D+3
COD+1D+10
CTD+7D+70
DED+8D+6R+2
DCD+40D+43D+3
FLR+2R+1D+1
GAR+6R+5D+1
HID+20D+18R+2
IDR+18R+19R+1
ILD+8D+7R+1
INR+5R+9R+4
IAD+1R+2R+3
KSR+12R+13R+1
KYR+13R+15R+2
LAR+12R+11D+1
MED+6D+3R+3
MDD+10D+12D+2
MAD+10D+12D+2
MID+4D+1R+3
MND+2D+1R+1
MSR+9R+90
MOR+5R+9R+4
MTR+7R+10R+3
NER+12R+14R+2
NVD+2D+1R+1
NHD+1EVENR+1
NJD+6D+7D+1
NMD+4D+40
NYD+11D+110
NCR+3R+30
NDR+10R+16R+6
OHR+1R+3R+2
OKR+19R+190
ORD+5D+50
PAD+1EVENR+1
RID+11D+10R+1
SCR+8R+80
SDR+10R+14R+4
TNR+12R+13R+1
TXR+10R+8D+2
UTR+22R+20D+2
VTD+16D+15R+1
VAEVEND+1D+1
WAD+5D+7D+2
WVR+13R+19R+6
WID+2EVENR+2
WYR+22R+25R+3
oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
3  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Federal court strikes down GOP-drawn maps (Wisconsin legislative map) on: November 26, 2016, 12:36:23 am
I'm very interested in any detailed commentary any of our top-tier redistricting nerds might have to offer here (jimrtex, Torie, muon, etc.).

a. Is the proposed "wasted votes" test a meaningful/relevant/workable standard?
b. How different is it from previous tests the Supreme Court has rejected?
c. Are there any other, narrower tests the Supreme Court might decide to follow instead?
d. By your reckoning, how likely is Justice Kennedy to affirm this ruling, whether he bases it on "wasted votes" or something else?
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary breaks 50% in Orange County, California on: November 18, 2016, 10:29:23 pm
Remember when this forum was for discussion of election data and not partisan s**t-talk?

as someone who has been a member here for going on twelve years now - no, there has literally never been a time when the year-specific Presidential Election boards were anything other than partisan poop talk
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: My top ten reasons why Clinton lost on: November 18, 2016, 09:35:11 pm
This is a great analysis - one big factor I would add to C would be the collective gullibility this nation seems to have towards fake news when it's posted on social media. Millions of people fell for blatantly false propaganda directed against Hillary Clinton that they probably would not have believed (or been exposed to) otherwise. The role social media played in the election was both fascinating and alarming -- particularly, the alt-right's skill in making pro-Trump/anti-Hillary messages go viral with such consistency.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Popular vote total on: November 18, 2016, 09:17:21 pm
The result is important for calculating PVIs. How on Earth do you determine if a Congressional district is more or less Republican than the national average without knowing what the national average is?

This is a site full of political nerds, how can you all not be excited about the new batch of PVIs we're going to get after the election? I'm eager as hell to see how districts' PVIs changed since 2012.

I think I already told you this in IRC last week but I am absolutely incredibly psyched to see the new PVI numbers
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why was Atlas so delusional about the election? on: November 16, 2016, 01:17:11 pm
Trump's own campaign staff thought he had no chance of winning the election, and were just going through the motions hoping to save downballot races and/or wishing for a magic upset. Their own assessments indicated he would not be able to win Florida, Iowa, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. They thought they would only win 240 electoral votes - which was, I believe, pretty close the median Atlas poster's prediction.

Anyone trying to say Trump and his own campaign staff were geniuses who knew "what was really going on" are just rewriting history. The only people who were delusional about the election were the alt-right hacks who seemed to be operating on the principle of "IT WILL COME TRUE IF I BELIEVE HARD ENOUGH" and now because of the election's unexpected upset we will be forced to suffer through four years of those morons thinking they have any idea about anything.

Most Hillary supporters here and elsewhere knew the chance of a Trump upset was real and were fearful of it - it was only Trump's supporters who kept delusionally pretending their guy was infallible and could never lose
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary breaks 50% in Orange County, California on: November 16, 2016, 01:01:32 pm
3 million illegals voted. We won popular

lol

you feel the need to lie even when your side wins the election

it's pathological folks
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Transition Team/Cabinet Thread on: November 14, 2016, 09:53:12 pm
Sessions was the only member of Congress who supported Trump from the very beginning - even while he was initially coy about making an explicit endorsement, he was already working with the campaign behind the scenes. I really don't envision Trump throwing Sessions under the bus. If he does that's a yuge sign that Trump won't be able to stand up for himself against the GOP Congress
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: CA Congressional Races: Issa and Barragan in trouble? on: November 14, 2016, 10:54:54 am
California is a joke state.  It's unacceptable that they still have millions of ballots to count.  They are reason #1 that we cant have a national popular vote.  Can you imagine the country having to wait like this every 4 years? 

1. Making it easier to vote is far more important than making sure all the votes can be counted quickly. The former is a fundamental democratic right and the latter is a convenience for the modern media cycle.

2. If we had a national popular vote we wouldn't have to wait like this every four years. Everyone knew on election night that Hillary would win the popular vote even without all these votes in. The networks would be able to call the election for Hillary on election night, just like the they were able to call California for Clinton even though all these millions of votes were still out.

3. Presumably if we had a true national popular vote (and not just the NPV Compact) it would be accompanied by a nationwide standardization over things like early voting and vote counting - otherwise it'd be kind of pointless to count all votes together if there wasn't a central authority managing/overseeing the count
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: CA Congressional Races: Issa and Barragan in trouble? on: November 14, 2016, 10:45:05 am
California is a joke state.  It's unacceptable that they still have millions of ballots to count.  They are reason #1 that we cant have a national popular vote.  Can you imagine the country having to wait like this every 4 years? 
Blame their law allowing people to submit their mail-in ballots 3 up to days after.

This is wrong. Mail-in ballots have to be post-marked by election day to be counted - they are still counted as long as they arrive within three days later (of course this year, since "three days later" was Veterans Day, the deadline for receiving ballots was extended to today)
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Remaining votes (Update: about 7 million ballots left to count nationwide) on: November 14, 2016, 10:40:57 am
To those who keep questioning: Wisconsin is 100% counted, as is california.

You're absolutely wrong on California - ballots aren't even required to arrive by mail until today so they don't yet even have all the votes to count!
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Maine makes history on: November 14, 2016, 10:35:46 am
I am not saying it is difficult to understand. However, everything is about the margin, and the marginal voter might be confused that he is suddenly using numbers on his ballot where he previously used checkmarks. Maybe that drops turnout from 69% to 67%.

Is it so absurd to think that it is possible that 2% of the voting age population really is that stupid?

It's stupid to think this will disproportionately harm Democratic candidates
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: PAPOY Creepfest 2017 on: November 14, 2016, 12:56:45 am
my fiancee, me, my cousin, his girlfriend



15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Reporting Patterns by State? on: November 08, 2016, 05:30:56 am
GOP counting bias states: Tennessee, Montana

In the Louisiana Senate primary the early results will be biased against Kennedy and both Democrats (especially Fayard)
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sam Wang doubles down on the PEC model on: November 07, 2016, 04:15:01 pm
Wang is literally the opposite of Nate Silver.
He got into a Twitter war with Silver in 2014 when he predicted a democratic senate until the last moment

Nate Silver has been excessively aggressive towards Sam Wang ever since Wang predicted 2012 better than he did. While Nate was correctly predicting a GOP midterm victory earlier than Wang was, to call it a "war" is a huge mischaracterization.

Wang was just minding his own business, doing his election forecasting, when Nate suddenly began singling him out, targeting his site and hurling insults at both the PEC model and Sam Wang himself. Wang only responded to Silver publicly only after two weeks had passed and Nate showed no sign of relenting. Nate's arguments ultimately amounted to nothing more than the size of PEC's error bars but he intentionally hyped it into some huge scandal to increase 538 viewership because readers were starting to catch on to the fact that the quality of Nate's work had been in a nosedive since 538 was bought by ESPN
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: why trump is winning other ethnicity ? on: November 07, 2016, 02:53:30 pm
Small sample sizes, artefact of methodology errors, a non-negligible amount of "other" are white Trump supporters who hang up on the pollster (i.e. the "TRUMP" *CLICK* phenomenon)

Do they actually count those?

as far as I know yes - otherwise the poll has a nonrandom sample
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A mistake I think the Clinton campaign is making on: November 07, 2016, 09:58:58 am
Why is OP continuing to make so many generalizations about Hillary's entire campaign from literally one ad he saw

Why are there so many deplorable and bad posters with terrible opinions

It's not just one ad.

Literally every single Hillary ad I've seen over the past month was about Trump's comments against woman, minorities, etc.

What sort of shows do you watch? You'd have to be only watching TV programs with target audiences that are exclusively female for you to be seeing that ad so frequently, and if you're never seeing any other Clinton ad at all then you must have some really strange viewing habits
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: why trump is winning other ethnicity ? on: November 07, 2016, 06:32:59 am
Small sample sizes, artefact of methodology errors, a non-negligible amount of "other" are white Trump supporters who hang up on the pollster (i.e. the "TRUMP" *CLICK* phenomenon)
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What time will Hillary Clinton concede? on: November 07, 2016, 02:21:59 am
I tried to tell you what was going on.  I really tried.  This looks like a landslide, folks.

the mypalfish legacy lives on!
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can WA replace its two potential rogue electors? on: November 06, 2016, 05:13:06 pm
There are faithless electors all the time, who cares?

Haven't occurred since 2004, actually, and 2004 ("John Ewards") was probably just an idiot making a mistake. 2000 (D.C. elector abstaining) was more of a "serious" last time. Before that it was 1988.

So we're due.

There have been 5 faithless electors in the last 11 elections (going back to 1972), so it happens on average every other election.

There's probably going to be faithless electors this year, but it's more likely to be Republicans:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/03/how-a-faithless-elector-in-georgia-could-cost-donald-trump-an-electoral-college-vote-explained/
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-electoral-college-texas-chris-suprun-227422
22  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: dfwlibertylover v. Registrar General Peebs on: November 06, 2016, 03:15:29 pm
I must note that the plaintiff's information concerning Georgia law is completely incorrect. You can never be removed from voter rolls on account of not participating in elections. The state's process is that registrations are allowed to remain on the rolls unquestioned for up to seven years without voting. Then, in the eighth year, the Secretary of State and County Elections Board are required to attempt to confirm the voter in question still lives at the address specified on their voter registration. If they are able to verify the voter still resides there, they are allowed to remain a registered voter for another seven years before being checked again.

Theoretically in Georgia you can be a registered voter your entire life without ever actually voting in a single election. The case made by dfwlibertylover is simply not valid.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Last minute poll: Who Wins? on: November 06, 2016, 02:27:00 pm
Just remember folks, Dewey defeated Truman according to the media.

and Romney defeated Obama according to Karl Rove!
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A mistake I think the Clinton campaign is making on: November 06, 2016, 02:26:05 pm
Why is OP continuing to make so many generalizations about Hillary's entire campaign from literally one ad he saw

Why are there so many deplorable and bad posters with terrible opinions
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The Hill: Ryan May Not Stay on as Speaker on: November 06, 2016, 07:38:35 am
Without Paul Ryan there is literally nobody who can hold the House Republican Conference together - especially if they'll be dealing with a reduced majority next year.

I have full confidence that yet again Paul Ryan will be forced to be Speaker against his will.
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