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April 19, 2014, 05:24:44 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Martinez exposť shows nasty side on: April 16, 2014, 10:00:57 pm
No one is going to care about this when she's Jeb's running mate.

IMO Jeb is the least likely nominee to pick Martinez because it'd offer a lot of fodder to Saturday Night Live and evening talkshows.

Latina wife and Latina VP... looks like Jeb likes his women spicy

(I am not very good at offensive racial humor is there a term like "yellow fever" but for Hispanics because I feel like there should be but I can't think of one)
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: I may run for Newberry City Commission on: April 16, 2014, 09:48:07 pm
serious: I can guarantee you at least four votes from my family down there and I'll totally come down and campaign for you if you'd like
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How can I get cash? on: April 16, 2014, 09:44:23 pm
the obvious answer that nobody has said yet:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEHMbJ_FVfA
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Georgia's Very Own Megathread! on: April 16, 2014, 12:28:45 pm
Pennington will make a 'major announcement' tomorrow:

Quote
David Pennington, the only Conservative running for Governor of Georgia, will be making a major campaign announcement outside of the Governorís Office at the State Capitol tomorrow.

This comes on the heels of the recent court ruling regarding Nathan Dealís near constant ethics scandals over campaign funds and private, personal business dealings.

Any thoughts, Adam?


Please let him run as a 3rd party

Running as a third party candidate is almost impossible in GA; we have some of the most ridiculous ballot access laws
5  Questions and Answers / Presidential Election Process / Re: Circumventing 22nd Amendment via Resignation on: April 15, 2014, 08:46:13 pm
A President who has served two terms can also serve a third term by having the House elect him Speaker and then getting the newly elected President and VP to resign. Unlike all other eligibility requirements, 22nd Amendment is on being elected, not on holding the office
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Georgia's Very Own Megathread! on: April 14, 2014, 03:47:36 am
I'm not as optimistic about Democrat chances in Georgia as everyone else here is. Paul Broun's fundraising has been terrible, and Gingrey hasn't been getting any traction. I expect Handel to get the nomination, and if not her, then Perdue.

I don't think you can count out Kingston either. Kingston has been on fire with fundraising. But I'm starting to think it's a three-headed race for the nomination between those three (Handel, Perdue, and Kingston).

This is based on nothing but my own gut instinct but I think Kingston is by far the most likely candidate to win the primary
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Carney Family's Photoshopping Fail on: April 13, 2014, 06:57:31 pm
Has anyone else looked at the actual article? This botched edit job is the least ghastly thing about it.

I skimmed through it, my impression was that it was mostly shilling her new book
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Carney Family's Photoshopping Fail on: April 13, 2014, 03:20:26 pm
Yeah I don't think Carney had any say in what the Washingtonian Mom photo editor did with pictures taken by the Washingtonian Mom photographer
9  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: U.S denies visa to Hamid Abutalebi, Iranian choice for U.N Ambassador on: April 12, 2014, 12:55:03 pm
Blatant violation of international law:

Quote from: The Convention on the Privileges and Immunities of the United Nations
Representatives of Members to the principal and subsidiary organs of the United Nations and to conferences convened by the United Nations, shall, while exercising their functions and during the journey to and from the place of meeting, enjoy the following privileges and immunities: ...

(d) Exemption in respect of themselves and their spouses from immigration restrictions, aliens registration or national service obligations in the state they are visiting or through which they are passing in the exercise of their functions;
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NH-Sen: Scott Brown's flirtation on: April 11, 2014, 07:42:43 am
And here we go...

Quote
@SenScottBrown
Starting today, I am a candidate for the United States Senate from New Hampshire. #nhsen  #nhpolitics

thank you for reminding me his twitter is a thing



#bqhatevwr
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Kathleen Sebelius resigning on: April 11, 2014, 01:22:22 am
Any speculation on who will replace her?

Yeah:

Quote
Obama intends to replace Sebelius, who has been under fire for the botched rollout of the federal ObamaCare exchange, with Sylvia Burwell, who is now the director of the Office of Management and Budget.

former President of the Walmart Foundation, ftr
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Greece: early election by March 2015 very likely on: April 09, 2014, 03:30:03 am
I had recently heard just the opposite, that New Democracy was pressuring prosecutors to exaggerate charges against Golden Dawn and eventually when those charges go nowhere, it's probably going to hurt New Democracy/help Golden Dawn.

Vice has an ok article on the subject.

(Still can't post hyperlinks): vice (dot) com/en_uk/read/greece-baltakos-kasidiaris-transcripts

www.vice.com/en_uk/read/greece-baltakos-kasidiaris-transcripts

Quote
Also, there's a new stupid moderate hero party called The River.

To Potami is a center-left party, a middle ground of sorts between SYRIZA and PASOK. Why do you call them a "stupid moderate hero party?

To Potami is essentially DIMAR without taint from association with PASOK/ND

"moderate hero" is a forum injoke that basically means "someone who holds carefully triangulated median views for the sake of appearing reasonable to both sides" and/or building your politics on the golden mean fallacy

Welcome to the forum!
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should we have a ATLASFORUMCON? on: April 08, 2014, 05:54:40 pm
If you're cool and not weird and you find yourself in the DC area always feel free to let me know.

^^^

I've talked about doing something in DC this summer.  I'm happy to help arrange once the semester winds down a bit.

I'm in
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should we have a ATLASFORUMCON? on: April 08, 2014, 04:27:30 pm
A+ would attend

Also yeah if any of you are ever in ATL please hit me up
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Dartmouth Students Storm President's Offices, Seriousness of Demands Unclear on: April 07, 2014, 06:46:53 am
These student activists would no doubt point to the Sapir-Whorf Hypothesis and link the notion of machismo to the Spanish language's treatment of gender.

Which would be a very inaccurate idea - grammatical gender doesn't necessarily entail sexism (see German, or even a lot of Spanish-speaking countries) nor is the inverse true (see Farsi). The Strong version of Sapir-Whorf is a huge load of crap, basically.

I agree with you that the stronger proponents of linguistic relativism don't really have much in the way of supporting evidence, I'm just pointing out that there's definitely a logic behind the students' espoused beliefs and it's not really fair to dismiss them out of hand by claiming that they don't understand one of the basic rules of the most widely studied foreign language in the country. And regardless of the accuracy of the explanation I suggested, anecdotal evidence from the couple of diehard feminist Hispanics I know suggests that the Spanish language's grammar rules are a major point of contention within that community nonetheless.
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Just something I have to say. on: April 07, 2014, 12:48:24 am
<3
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Dartmouth Students Storm President's Offices, Seriousness of Demands Unclear on: April 07, 2014, 12:44:36 am
Wait, why did they say "Latin@"? What does that even mean?

@ has elements of both an 'a' and an 'o' in the way it looks so it's intended to be a (sadly unpronounceable) gender-neutral shorthand for situations where for whatever reason people don't want to use the word 'Hispanic'. I'm seeing it more and more often these days.

Huh. I only see the a, thus defeating the purpose. Can't they just say Latino/a?
Are they seriously that anal over being as non offensive as possible that they want gender neutral spelling with symbols, and not letters???

The irony is that in Spanish, the male pronoun is always used when dealing with mixed genders or an unknown gender. A group of male and female Hispanic Americans is always going to be referred to as Latinos. So in their ham-handed attempt to be politically correct, they willfully disregarded another culture's linguistic conventions. RACISTS!

These student activists would no doubt point to the Sapir-Whorf Hypothesis and link the notion of machismo to the Spanish language's treatment of gender. You are (speaking to the collective of Atlas here, not just IndyTexasTexasIndyTexas) quite surprisingly uptight about a simple ampersand, along with other minor points of contention, to such a degree that it suggests subtle unconscious fear of these strange ideas you don't understand.

I think it's pretty nifty, it looks like an A and an O at the same time so you don't have to put either gender in front of the other! I've never seen it before but I'm going to start typing Latin@.

Well I'm 1/64th Native American. Does that mean I should get mad at the other 63/64ths of me for oppressing that 1/64th of me? (Really 31/64th actually since my father's family are very recent immigrants).

This is the whitest possible comment: discussion of racial fractions as if your blood quantum suddenly means you're not racist, a cheap joke automatically discarding these strange and apparently silly ideas, and a display that indicates utter ignorance at how oppression functions. I don't mean to pick on you Mr. Texas because others miss the point just as much as you but your posts make good examples to respond to. I am speaking to all y'all whities and that phrase includes Simfan who has assimilated quite skillfully into the cultural hegemon and can maintain the perfect facsimile of a middle aged white dude.



I don't understand the problem people have at all. Sure, some of the points aren't very well thought out. You could criticize that, but that's honestly just splitting hairs when the big picture here is honestly pretty impressive. These are kids, basically, and the level of cringe is comparable to any of the essays anyone that age writes for their classes. But these are kids who have done something, who have taken action to make sure their voices are heard, to an extent that nobody here has ever done about anything. This group composing of a lot of white guys has lodged a very loud protest in favor of gender, racial, and cultural equality. The tides are turning and these beliefs are becoming mainstream in tomorrow's leaders: like it or not but we're about to give way to the tumblr generation
18  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Why does Mathematics have no originality anymore? on: April 04, 2014, 11:43:12 pm
dude okay

what if like

there was a number

dude like

what if there was an extra number

and get this

we didn't discover it until now

and it was hiding there between three and four

like the entire time

and we didn't notice it until now




that would be new
19  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: What kind of bro are you? on: April 04, 2014, 11:38:03 pm
Brooklyn with a bit of Manhattan
20  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: 2048 on: April 04, 2014, 05:27:46 pm
This thread made me try it and I beginners lucked into 1024 on my first attempt but haven't been able to figure it out since

the trick is basically pick one direction that you will never use, and keep the biggest square on the opposite side and in the corner if possible
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: EP elections 2014 on: March 31, 2014, 04:06:15 pm
Here's how the University of Macedonia poll translates among decided voters :
Syriza 23.4
ND 17.1
To Potami 16.5
XA 11.4
KKE 10.1
Pasok 5.7
Dimar 2.5
Anel 1.9

I'm having a hard time believing ND, Potami and KKe's scores honestly. Let's wait for a few more polls to see

I know it's a week old now but Potami being so high makes sense; typical aurge for a big new "fad" party. KKE is so high because this is just decided voters and the people who vote KKE never vote for anyone else and people who vote for anyone else never vote KKE; their proportional support among people who have already decided this early is naturally higher.

ND being so low probably indicates there are a lot of right-leaning undecideds
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: If Bacon King and Clinton96 had a baby, would it be BaconBacon96? on: March 30, 2014, 07:01:33 pm
Clinton they've discovered our lovechild Sad
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Georgia's Very Own Megathread! on: March 30, 2014, 04:07:56 pm
I used Hancock specifically because it's the only rural county where black voters were a greater proportion of the vote than the partisan breakdown you assume for "unknown" voters. This would effectively double the discrepancy, because it'd be one of the only counties where "unknown" voters are more likely to vote Obama than you estimate so it would make your guess of a white percentage off by even more.

Throughout most of the state, there's a fairly strong direct correlation in your map between a white voter's proximity to black voters, and the white voter's probability of voting for Obama, which is literally exactly the opposite of what you say is happening. Even when you throw out the smaller urban centers like Augusta, Albany, Macon, Savannah, and Columbus, and college towns Milledgeville and Statesboro, you have a bunch of counties that are blacker than surrounding counties where whites are also more likely to vote for Obama.

See: Hancock, Warren, Taliaferro, Washington, Jefferson, Macon, Talbot, Marion, Sumter, Stewart, Quitman, Clay, Calhoun, Liberty, etc

The cocks are the most obvious example of a consistent pattern throughout the black belt and really the entire state south of the Atlanta metro. It makes no sense based on my personal knowledge of these places.

Regarding the turnout, I'm not surprised that people who don't check off the boxes on their form have a lower than average turnout. Whether it's out of paranoia or laziness or age or whatever, pretty much any factor you can think about that would keep someone from identifying their race and gender on a form would also make them less likely to go to the polls on election day.



Yeah, that makes sense. I was thinking we might be seeing some neat bell curve of sorts, where whites were more pro-Obama not only in rural areas where there are virtually no blacks, but also in more rural areas where there are large black populations.

But... Huh

2012 electorate, Hancock:

77.34% black
21.21% white
1.45% other

The others/unknowns don't even play a significant role here. Using the formulas, I get this:

(77.34*0.95) + (1.45*0.65) = 74.41%

80.92 (Obama vote %) - 74.41 = 6.51

6.51/21.21 = 30.69% of white vote for Obama

Even if you count all of the unknowns as whites: 32.87%
And count all of the unknowns as blacks: 28.62%

I haven't checked the other counties. The ones you named: are those the ones you believe there are issues with on here? Especially in the SW...on both Carter and Sanford's turf...?

Maybe the issue is that you're underestimating Obama's share of the black vote or the general nonwhite vote? Where you getting those numbers from? That would also explain the pattern.

And yeah those counties I listed are the ones that immediately stood out to me as being counties blacker than their surroundings where whites are apparently more likely to vote for Obama.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Georgia's Very Own Megathread! on: March 30, 2014, 04:01:54 pm
At some point, Georgians are going to be sick and tired of Republican rule in the Peach State.



wow

much insight
25  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: March 2014 At-Large Special Senate Election on: March 30, 2014, 01:15:28 pm
1. Alfred
2. Simfan
3. Poirot
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