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September 20, 2014, 07:00:07 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Was Atlas less partisan in the past? on: Today at 01:13:22 am
There were a lot more GOP hacks and also those were the peak years of Moderate Heroism in the Forum Democratic Caucus
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Scottish independence - The Official Atlas Forum mock referendum on: September 19, 2014, 12:21:48 am
ftr for like three days this vote was tied
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of this Gordon Brown speech on: September 18, 2014, 11:51:11 pm
A++++

Gordon Brown singlehandedly saved the United Kingdom

Gordy 4 PM
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014) on: September 18, 2014, 11:19:47 pm
Scotland: UK HOLD
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014) on: September 18, 2014, 11:13:46 pm
so which Ayrshire is your favorite everyone? I think the best is East Ayrshire because of the trippy background image plus the official vote announcer being awesome and giving the audience a penalty for excessive celebration
6  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: New Register Thread on: September 18, 2014, 08:37:39 pm
Bacon King
The People's Party
Oceania or whatever the name of the state of all the lil Pacific islands is where I already live
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014) on: September 18, 2014, 06:41:12 pm
FRAUD SCANDAL!!!: Twitter user spots a YES vote in the NO pile

8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas Forum IRC Channel, Thread 2 on: September 18, 2014, 04:16:26 pm
scottish referendum chat 2k14
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Joe Biden under fire from Jewish groups for using word 'Shylocks' during speech on: September 17, 2014, 06:53:33 pm
It is kind of an ugly old slur?

It was probably a slip of the tongue, though, so Foxman is taking the right tack.

Honestly it would probably be worse if it came from literally anyone else. This kind of thing is entirely expected from Joe "Gaffe Machine" Biden and I'm more surprised it's been so long since he accidentally offended some group or another.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WaPo: Attacks on Ernst change dynamics of Iowa Senate race on: September 17, 2014, 05:47:55 pm
Quote
Officials in both campaigns agree that the race could be decided by one percentage point or less.

They'd probably both be saying this even if their internals were showing a consistent five point lead in either direction. If the race is publicly seen as a tossup, then both sides have every incentive to hype this up. It motivates turnout, boosts donations, invites more attention from their party committees, etc.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Georgia's Very Own Megathread! on: September 17, 2014, 05:35:03 pm
On Sunday I'll be down in south GA helping my dad to settle some stuff with my grandparents' estate. I will have a lot of conversation time with several of my aunts and uncles who are very politically-minded. So please post any questions or topics you would like discussed in next edition of BK's Family PoliticsWatch: ElectionTracker 2014
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Joe Biden under fire from Jewish groups for using word 'Shylocks' during speech on: September 17, 2014, 02:45:35 pm
This is just the press overstating something to get more site clicks (I would say "sell more papers" but that term is kind of outdated these days)

Quote
National leader of the Anti-Defamation League, Abraham Foxton, said Mr Biden 'should have been more careful' ...

'When someone as friendly to the Jewish community and open and tolerant an individual as is Vice President Joe Biden, uses the term "Shylocked" to describe unscrupulous moneylenders dealing with service men and women, we see once again how deeply embedded this stereotype about Jews is in society,' Mr Foxman said.

i.e. the ADL's president literally pardons Joe Biden for using the slur, attacks society instead
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Prof. Victor Sanchez Williams on: September 17, 2014, 02:29:33 pm
No because he won't get ballot access
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Nate Silver explains FiveThirtyEight's Senate forecasting model on: September 17, 2014, 02:19:38 pm
So he's calling out a guy for making his error bars too narrow??

Silver seems to have a fair point. At least in 2010, Wang apparently structured his model in a way that almost completely ruled out results that actually happened, and it wasn't even a partisan bias on Wang's part from what I can tell, since he overestimated Angle, a Republican, while underestimating the GOP's chances in the House in the same year.

Silver calls out Wang for predicting a two point Angle victory when Silver predicted a three point Angle victory. He calls out Wang's predicted 51 seat GOP House gain when Silver predicted 53. The only difference was that Wang's model only had a standard error of 0.5 points for the Senate race and two seats in the House, while Silver's prediction came with a plus-or-minus thirty seats in the House and a similarly broad range for the Senate election.

Silver's complaint is accurate but he's making a mountain out of a molehill here. Sure, in past elections Wang's model significantly underestimated uncertainty but that's irrelevant because he corrected it after 2012. Nate Silver is literally calling out another election predictor as unreliable by hyping up the fact that the guy used to have a single methodological error that has long since been corrected.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Nate Silver explains FiveThirtyEight's Senate forecasting model on: September 17, 2014, 11:20:32 am
So he's calling out a guy for making his error bars too narrow??
16  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: TOEFL Certificates And IELTS Certificates Available on: September 17, 2014, 11:17:41 am
wow this sounds very legitimate please tell me more!

oh wait you can't because i just muted you Sad

He/she's on mod review, not muted.  And you're a moderator, so you can still read any posts that he/she submits for moderation.


#buzzkill
17  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: TOEFL Certificates And IELTS Certificates Available on: September 17, 2014, 12:49:27 am
wow this sounds very legitimate please tell me more!

oh wait you can't because i just muted you Sad
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVII: I Ate The Strawberry (The REAL, AUTHENTIC Update) on: September 16, 2014, 10:06:19 pm
Maybe Bushie should learn to grill
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KY Senate Race 2014: Getting lucky in Kentucky on: September 16, 2014, 05:42:42 pm
I like the Grimes ad but it's the sort of ad she probably should have been running like three months ago, might be too late now
20  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Olive Garden takes triumphant stance against Wall Street on: September 16, 2014, 04:17:32 pm
Olive Garden breadsticks = delicious
Everything else at Olive Garden = literal garbage

I hope that explains the situation.

^^^^^

If you're going to slum it up by eating at Olive Garden, it's pretty much obligatory to go whole-hog and gorge yourself on the infinite supply of delicious breadsticks
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in NY-11? on: September 16, 2014, 01:53:58 pm
What makes this cycle so different for the Staten Island district?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 538 on Alaska polling on: September 16, 2014, 12:41:42 pm
Where do the polled Alaskans live? Only in Achorage? I mean it must be horrifying for the pollsters to poll such a huge state with an extremely low population density.
How many Alaskans have phones and Internet at all?

I would assume rural Alaskans living outside of the Anchorage metro would be more likely to have a phone as it's their only means of communicating with the outside world (including the dudes who deliver their food supply)
23  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Olive Garden takes triumphant stance against Wall Street on: September 16, 2014, 12:36:11 pm
rebuttal from the Wall Street fatcats who want to limit the breadstick supply:



you see apparently three breadsticks per customer on average is somehow an egregious waste and it's all the fault of the servers for not following draconian breadstick allotment guidelines
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Palin family (including Sarah) involved in drunken brawl. on: September 16, 2014, 11:32:57 am
Palin is the real-life version of The Onion's Joe Biden

No, Joe Biden is the real-life version of The Onion's Joe Biden

Further investigation reveals you are correct
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KS-Sen: Taylor drops out on: September 16, 2014, 11:23:21 am
wow Orman is twitchy as all hell in that ad
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