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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Libertarian National Convention thread on: May 28, 2016, 01:22:02 pm
let's livechat the livestream in IRC

http://chat.mibbit.com/?channel=%23atlasforum&server=173.255.253.218
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Potential Wasserman-Schultz Replacements? on: May 28, 2016, 11:34:25 am
probably a chairman of one of the fast-growing state parties would be a good choice
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 28, 2016, 11:29:02 am
What's up with the non-contiguous part of Tirol? (this may not be the best thread for the question, but I've never noticed it before)
4  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas Posters in 2028 on: May 28, 2016, 01:06:59 am
I would be 38 so I hope I'm not still posting here
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which nation do/would you play as in Civilization V? on: May 28, 2016, 01:06:10 am
I bought V during a steam sale 3 years ago but I really couldn't get into it - I only have 16 hours of playtime, and that's several game attempts that didn't draw my interest. Has it improved since then? Would mods and/or DLC improve the game enough that I'll like it now even if I didn't like the original base game? I really want to like this game because I love both III and IV - I bought both on release and have put probably 1000+ hours into each game over the last 14 years
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Prepare for the Trump/Jefferson Monument on: May 27, 2016, 05:26:55 pm
take the existing Jefferson Monument and put yuge luxurious gold walls around it!
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Posters in Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri on: May 27, 2016, 02:06:43 am
brb reinstalling
8  Forum Community / Forum Community / 2786 days ago on: May 25, 2016, 01:54:48 am
The US census even now counts it as a 'race'

LOL@stupid Gully...again. Hispanic is a race on the Census...LOL!

NEVER FORGET
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Northern Ireland Assembly 2016 on: May 24, 2016, 06:06:02 pm
will UUP and SDLP jointly be the official opposition or is it just UUP because they're the bigger party?
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 24, 2016, 04:11:53 pm
Sad day for Austria, sad day for Europe. The fearmongering has won again.

the fearmongering lost tho
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 23, 2016, 09:49:59 am
sore losers ITT
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 23, 2016, 09:47:25 am
predictably, the wacko conspiracy theories have already begun

http://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2016-05/fpoe-wahlen-oesterreich-norbert-hofer-party
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 23, 2016, 08:56:38 am
Well, let me say this you people deserve these refugees.


hahahahahahaha wow aren't you 14

so edgy!
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 22, 2016, 02:29:20 pm

Here is the awnser from Kurier


Der Wahlkoordinator des Innenministeriums, Robert Stein, bei seiner Lieblingsbeschäftigung: Er erläuterte in der Hofburg im Gespräch mit dem KURIER das Zahlenwerk der spannenden Entscheidung, die uns morgen erwartet: Insgesamt waren 885.000 Wahlkarten beantragt. Es seien aber nur noch 740.000 auszuzählen, diese Differenz entstehe entweder in den Wahllokalen oder es haben sich manche noch überlegt, doch nicht zu wählen. Rund 3 bis 4 Prozent seien bei jeder Wahl wegen Nichtigkeit abzuziehen, weil zum Beispiel eine Unterschrift fehlt, oder ähnliches. Es gehe also noch um rund 700.000 Wahlkarten netto, bei einem Unterschied von derzeit 144.000 Stimmen zwischen Hofer und Van der Bellen.

So tomorrow 700k votes will be counted. Hofer is in lead for 144k votes so Vdb needs to make this up somehow or Hofer will be the winner.



Thanks for this!

By their numbers it looks like VdB needs ~61% to win
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 22, 2016, 02:09:36 pm
apparently it's probably just test data (though some or saying it's the unreleased postal vote tally). it's inaccessible anywhere on the site without typing in that direct url
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 22, 2016, 02:05:18 pm
^ Postal ballots are not counted until tomorrow, so relax, sit back, there's no way to know the end result yet.

what are these from?

http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at/1605-bw_ov_0.html
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 22, 2016, 01:31:54 pm
to clarify: absolutely no postal ballots have been counted yet, correct?

asking because of this:

https://twitter.com/c3o/status/734444612090253312

edit: http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at/1605-bw_ov_0.html Huh
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 22, 2016, 01:27:48 pm
to clarify: absolutely no postal ballots have been counted yet, correct?
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 22, 2016, 01:05:18 pm
Judging by vote-transfers from round 1 to round 2, the postals could actually be close enough for a small Hofer-win:

It seems that Hofer got 34% of Griss/SPÖ/ÖVP/Lugner voters today.

If we apply the same 34% for the postals, then Hofer ends up with 41% - which would be enough.

in this estimate how do you apportion the ~200k second round postal voters who didn't postal vote in the first round
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 22, 2016, 12:23:57 pm
This could be 50-50 after mail, lol this could be Austria's version of the 2000 election

Maybe, but I expect VdB to get up to 65% of the postal ballots. He only needs 59.5%

how have postal ballots gone in the past?
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 22, 2016, 12:15:40 pm
Which they will. Do we already have an accurate # on how many postal ballots are out there?

I've read 850,000 but I don't know if that's accurate
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 21, 2016, 04:23:07 pm
Hello friends I have a few questions for your fine thread:

What time do the polls close - and how quickly do they report?
Is there any consistent pattern for Austrian election returns as they come in? (i.e. will the early returns be disproportionately favorable to either candidate)
The media I've seen makes it sound like Hofer is quite heavily favored - realistically, how likely is a VdB win here?
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NO ONE Could've predicted this outcome TM (Gloating Thread) on: May 07, 2016, 03:11:55 pm
Looks like I posted most of my Trump related #analysis on AAD, but I found these to posts to quote-brag:

Trump proves once again he is the most serious Republican candidate in the race

Of course Trump will lose, and it is in fact reflected in current polling. Head-to-heads have long shown Trump losing to everyone except Bush, who has long fallen into irrelevance anyway. Trump may very well win IA, and right now he looks like an overwhelming favorite to win NH. But eventually, the other candidates will coalesce around one person (right now, I suspect Cruz has the best shot by means of winning IA. But it may be that Trump will win IA/NH/SC and that an anti-Trump will only emerge later; it doesn't matter), and whoever that person is will smash Trump like the bug he is.

The problem with this analysis is that it's definitely not a given for any candidate to drop out early enough for support to coalesce around an anti-Trump, especially in the post-Citizens United era where superPACs can handle the heavy lifting with big ad buys.

As ironic as it is, Trump is in the same position that Romney held in 2012. There were quite a few candidates that would have defeated Romney in a head to head race at various points in the campaign, but the race was never just Romney vs. Anti-Romney (even as it got later in the primary season, Gingrich and Santorum were still acting as spoilers for each other) and this race will never be just Trump vs. one Anti-Trump.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Northern Ireland Assembly 2016 on: May 07, 2016, 10:11:48 am
Just pooping in to tell you how it looks from the outside of this board Smiley

Today at 09:51:05 am
in Re: Northern Ireland Ass...
by Bacon

( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Northern Ireland Assembly 2016 on: May 07, 2016, 09:51:05 am
so that means the final results will be

DUP 38
SF 27 or 28
UUP 16
SDLP 12 or 13
APNI 8
Green 2
PBPA 2
TUV 1
indy 1
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 643


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