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April 30, 2017, 09:41:05 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 24, 2017, 08:42:56 am
question: isn't there some sort of Fairness Doctrine type thing that requires tv/radio to give equal time to May supporters and Corbyn supporters or something to that effect? and/or maybe equal positive coverage of both for the duration of the campaign?

If so I think Corbyn might get an unexpected (if small) bump in the polls on account of receiving positive news coverage for once
2  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Is GA-06 gerrymandered? on: April 23, 2017, 06:39:35 pm
Looking at the border with GA-11, it is obviously gerrymandered. The Fulton parts of GA-11 should be in GA-6, and the Cobb parts of GA-6 should be in GA-11. If those were switched (with maybe a small part of Cobb staying in GA-6 for population equality, not sure exactly how the population works out), Ossoff would have won an easy majority, probably over 55%.

Hmm, what?

Buckhead was put into the 11th district, but it came out of the prior 5th district, not the prior 6th district. Many homeowners in Buckhead were upset at having all-talk no action John Lewis as their Congressman and requested that they be freed from that district.

At the time, Democrats were upset about Buckhead being split away from the 5th district! And here you are claiming that Buckhead should go into the 6th district.

For the record, though, the Buckhead section of Atlanta cast 2/3 of its vote for Congressman Loudermilk in the 2016 elections! The swap you propose is at best break even for the Democrat party and could even worsen their performance in the 6th district.

That section of Buckhead was specifically moved from the 6th district to the 11th district in the very last revision of the current map because of concerns about the 6th district potentially becoming competitive later in the decade.

(the other major change in that final revision was putting Moody AFB into the 1st district to give Kingston more sway on the Armed Forces Committee)
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 French Presidential Election - Predictions Thread on: April 23, 2017, 08:36:58 am
Le Pen 24.6%
Melenchon 20.9%
Macron 20.4%
Fillon 17.8%
Hamon 10.0%
Dupont 3.4%
Poutou 1.2%
Assellineau 0.8%
Lassalle 0.6%
Arthaud 0.2%
Cheminade 0.1%
4  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: April 2017 House Election on: April 22, 2017, 03:51:08 pm

[1] Peebs
[2] OneJ_ 
[3] Dereich
[4] simossad
[5] Clyde1998
[6] drewmike87
[7] NCYankee
[8] Leinad
[9] write-in: Bacon King

5  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Fremont Voting Booth: April 2017 Elections on: April 22, 2017, 03:46:02 pm

ONE (1) to be elected.

[1] LongLiveRock of Colorado
Liberal Democracy Party - Labor Party

[2] TedBessell of California
Free Soil Party - Federalist Party

[ 3] Write-in: Bacon King

FIVE (5) to be elected.

[5] Anthony1691 of California
Unaffiliated - Labor Party

[4] Dr_Novella of California
Ecosocialist Party - Labor Party

[1] evergreen of Washington
Ecosocialist Party - Uncultured Marxist Party of Atlasia

[6] RFayette of California
Unaffiliated - Atlas Conservative Party

[2] Roy Barnes 2010 of Washington
Democratic Alliance - Labor Party

[3] Tirnam of California
Liberal Democracy Party - Labor Party

[ 7] Write-in:Bacon King

6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Georgia 1992 on: April 20, 2017, 10:49:28 pm
Yeah, flawed exit polls + Democratic media bias. They also called NH for Clinton at poll closing time, and it was very close as well. Not to mention that they projected Democrat Wyche Fowler as the winner in the GA Senate race (Fowler later lost to Republican Paul Coverdell in the runoff).

The Georgia senate race was too close to call.

Georgia has a law that requires the winner of a GE race (including Presidential electors) to achieve 50% to avoid a runoff.  Georgia was projected for Clinton early, but taken off the board later on after reporters learned that there was a runoff  (Fowler was close to 50%, but Clinton won Georgia with 43% as Bush refused a runoff.) 

Georgia has never had any such law applying to presidential elections.

Fun fact: when Georgia originally adopted its runoff law, it actually did apply to Presidential elections! This remained the case until the law was changed in March of 1968 to exempt them from the runoff requirement (otherwise a runoff would have been required after that year's election. This wasn't a coincidence - Wallace supporters in the General Assembly were expecting a win and didn't want a runoff to jeopardize it)
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 07:02:34 pm
look guys the GA SoS website is amazing and updating faster than DDHQ or any other chumps

8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 18, 2017, 06:36:45 pm
last second ass-pull prediction

Ossoff: 54%
Hill: 13%
Gray: 11%
Handel: 10%
Moody: 8%
others: 5%
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 15, 2017, 12:05:30 pm
As a resident of the Atlanta metro I just want to point out how hard it would be for anyone in the district to miss this election. I have seen more ads from Ossoff and his Republican opponents in the past month than I saw from every candidate for everything combined throughout 2016. One doesn't exactly have to be highly informed/enthusiastic to know there's an election going on right now
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 14, 2017, 06:23:10 pm
update: watching tv right now I can confirm THE REPUBLICANS ARE ATTACKING EACH OTHER BIG LEAGUE

First there was an ad attacking Jon Ossoff for being a "tax and spend liberal". But then the message got muddled...

Second was a Dan Moody ad that went very negative against Karen Handel, calling her a "tax and spend liberal"

After that was a Club for Growth ad (who support Bob Gray) attacking both Moody and Handel, calling them "tax and spend liberals"

Now, during a second commercial break, there's a campaign ad from Gray attacking Handel, followed by a nice and friendly positive and on-message ad from Jon Ossoff!
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 14, 2017, 06:00:35 pm
My gut call is still Handel in third, even if polls are showing her up. I don't think name recognition is particularly relevant here - the people who bother voting in a special election are already self-selected to be motivated, engaged, and highly informed voters.

Also with all these polls showing Ossoff polling in the mid-to-upper-fourties in the runoff, I'm pessimistically preparing myself to be completely disappointed - remember that undecided Georgians always break R bigly Sad
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 14, 2017, 03:57:54 pm
Virginia is right - his sudden policy ""pivot"" isn't going to change Trump's approvals in this district. They might like his new direction or some of the new things he's doing but they're still not going to look upon him more favorably
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Happy Birthday to Siren! on: April 13, 2017, 11:58:32 pm
happy late birthday!
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Wulfric Rules of Socialist Identification on: April 13, 2017, 11:54:30 pm
from a question and answer segment the esteemed professor is conducting via Internet Relay Chat:

MalcolmX   @ Wulfric: Are Jews Socialists by association?  Sanders was Jewish, after all
Wulfric       Nope
Wulfric       Religion is not considered
Wulfric       Jews are such a diverse group that is silly to try to categorize their political ideology
Wulfric       heck some aren't even completely sure god exists

HSTruman   What about employees of organizations that endorsed Sanders?
Wulfric       The organization is a socialist organization by association
Wulfric       The employees - meh, it depends

HSTruman   what about O'Malley voters
Wulfric       O'Malley voters are innocent
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Wulfric Rules of Socialist Identification on: April 13, 2017, 11:41:59 pm
<Wulfric>   "Scoalist by Association" comprises 1) voting for Bernie for President, 2) being related or married to Bernie, 3) being endorsed by him in a primary election, 4) Being related (in a not super-distant way) to someone who supported him for president or was endorsed by him in a primary election
<Wulfric>    Nothing else
<Wulfric>    I don't think it's foolproof, but I think it's a good way to encompass likely candidates for (closeted) socialists.
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Wulfric Rules of Socialist Identification on: April 13, 2017, 11:40:17 pm
Professor Wulfric has announced his return from academic sabbatical by revealing his groundbreaking new research on this phenomenon:

<Wulfric>   For the record, as I coined "Socialist by Association" - using a fake "Bernie" account does not make one a socialist by association.
<Wulfric>    Voting for Bernie does obviously
<Wulfric>    The term does not try to judge accents or podcasts
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Cernovich: McMaster plushes for 150,000 US soldiers on Syrian ground on: April 13, 2017, 06:24:52 pm
Even in the Bloomberg article there's no substance besides "anonymous officials tell me ___, McMaster's critics say McMaster said ______"

I'm no fan of McMaster but this is clearly a false rumor leaked by Team Bannon in order to further their agenda in the courtly politics of the White House
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cook Releases 2017 PVI Info on: April 12, 2017, 08:53:43 am
The Republicans have 36 seats ranked R+20 or above, while the Democrats have 65 seats ranked D+20 or above.

That, in a generalized sense, is what the Democrat's problem in the House is all about.

your D+20 limit is completely arbitrary, though.

The Republicans have 146 seats ranked R+10 or above, while the Democrats have 122 seats ranked D+10 or above.

The Republicans have 189 seats ranked R+7 or above, while the Democrats have 150 seats ranked D+7 or above.

IMO these breakdowns are much better demonstrations of the Democratic Party's problems in the House. The problem isn't that Democrats self-segregate into urban areas at a greater rate than Republicans self-segregate into rural areas, because if you were to draw fair non-partisan maps nationwide, the number of R+20 seats would increase and the number of D+20 seats would probably decrease.

When you start getting into the districts where the GOP has a PVI advantage somewhere in the teens, you see many districts that would be R+20 or more but they awkwardly stretch and go out of their way to take in juuuust enough Democratic voters to keep the Democratic base too diluted so they can force as many GOP districts as possible

That's the real problem - gerrymandering. all other concerns are secondary. The 2018 House elections are meaningless compared to the extreme importance of the 2018 gubernatorial and state legislative elections . That is how the Congressional majority of the next decade will be determined. We don't even need to make our own gerrymanders - the Democratic party wins when the maps are drawn fairly
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 50+ Cruise Missiles just launched and hit Syria on: April 06, 2017, 10:48:10 pm
Cross-posting this rant I made on facebook:

20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 06, 2017, 08:40:08 am
The current trends are actually making it seem possible that Ossof might be more likely to win a run-off than the first round. The narrative so far has been that if he doesn't pull off an upset win in the primary, he'll lose 6-8% in the run-off. That could obviously still happen, but the confidence people have been assigning to that scenario is looking increasingly suspect. A run-off might be a lot closer than people are expecting.

You're exactly right - most people aren't considering the circumstances of a runoff that would actually benefit Ossoff.

The families in this wealthy suburban district have tons of sons and daughters attending university outside of the district - and often outside of the state entirely. They'll all be coming home for the summer - and importantly, most will be returning home with several weeks to spare before the runoff's registration deadline! Ossoff's would be able to lock down tens of thousands of new young adult voters for the runoff, especially if he makes a dedicated GOTV outreach to these kids. He would have no problem doing so, given his campaign's ample resources.

Also, if y'all think Ossoff's fundraising hauls are impressive now, there's going to be an insane wave of cash coming in once Democratic activists/donors have a specific Republican to oppose/vilify
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Heitkamp raises $1.6 million on: April 06, 2017, 07:56:50 am
Heitkamp can survive, it will just require her to put in a lot of work.

If there's anyone who has a proven record of doing extreme amounts of campaign groundwork when necessary, it's Heidi Heitkamp. Remember in 2012 the ND Senate election was on barely anyone's radar but she came out of nowhere to unexpectedly win because was an;e to win the votes of 20% of Romney's own voters in ND
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CNN: Agent on Pence's detail caught after meeting with prostitute at MD Hotel on: April 06, 2017, 07:44:45 am
Would you rather he'd have used his badge to browbeat women into bed with him for free?

This is Naso you're talking to, remember!
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 05, 2017, 01:38:44 pm
AKA why the GOP tries to undermine early voting:

I was going to say, "what the hell Dekalb County" but it looks like they got their act together and as of today now have an early voting location open within the district

Also for the last week of early voting, Cobb County will have a second location open - in the southernmost Cobb portion of the district, which actually has a significant minority population.
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Am I weird? on: April 04, 2017, 09:11:17 pm
When I find something I like at a restaurant, I usually stick to it for ages. For example, I think I ordered crab cakes at this one place I like for literally 20 times straight before I finally ordered something else, then after that I continued with my crab cake feasting

this is literally me at every restaurant I've ever frequented
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas needs avatar discipline on: April 01, 2017, 03:09:40 am
i'm contractually obligated to have the same avatar as Adam Griffin so blame him not me
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