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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / question about california's voting system on: Today at 01:07:17 am
Let's say Kamala Harris withdrew from the Senate race for some reason - what would that mean for the ballot in November?

Do they replace her with whoever got third place in the primary? Do they let Sanchez run unopposed? Do they have a special election to replace her or something? Or do they just keep Harris's name on the ballot even if she withdraws more than three months before the election?
2  About this Site / The Atlas / ATTN MODS: one of your forum members is demanding that others commit suicide on: July 17, 2016, 11:21:18 pm
I like Erdogan, but I have to agree with this.

Kill yourself.

This kind of statement is obviously unacceptable when directed at anyone, let alone a pillar of our community such as TimTurner, who is unequivocally one of the friendliest members of our forum. This extremely hateful rhetoric breeds a toxic atmosphere of hatred, and anyone who utters such statements should absolutely not be allowed here. I must demand that immediate and decisive action be taken.


Thanks,

Justin
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: 2016 PAPOY Creepfest on: July 08, 2016, 07:52:49 pm
today in the pool i made a friend



4  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of jfern on: July 08, 2016, 07:51:17 pm
write-in: the statistical significance of a coin landing on its head 995 times out of a thousand
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 07, 2016, 12:32:16 pm
Labor's lead in the national two party count has shrunk to less than 500 votes
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016 on: July 05, 2016, 11:02:36 am
two questions:

Have any of the 36 Corbyn endorsers in the last leadership election turned on him yet?

and why is Andy Burnham of all people still serving in the Shadow Cabinet?
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 05, 2016, 09:46:13 am
Could just be a bad batch, but if they continue the Liberals will probably end up gaining majority government.

is there any reason to expect this? e.g. do they count the postals in the order they receive them like in the US?
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 03, 2016, 07:41:06 pm
Change in 2013 Labor 2PP vote share when all non-ordinary vote types (postal, pre-poll, etc) were added:
(i.e. change in vote share between "ordinary" votes and total votes)

Petrie: +0.01
Hindmarsh: no change
Gilmore: -0.11
Herbert: -0.14
Cowan: -0.33
Dickson: -0.44
Robertson: -0.47
La Trobe: -0.59
Chisholm: -0.61
Dunkley: -0.80
Capricornia: -0.88
Forde -2.14
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 03, 2016, 06:49:13 pm
Nationwide in 2013, the inclusion of non-ordinary votes (i.e. absent, provisional, pre-poll, and postal) only increased the coalition's first preference vote share by 0.14 points, and decreased Labor's by 0.44. Greens increased their vote share by 0.24, mostly due to a very strong performance among "absent" votes.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 02, 2016, 02:39:58 am
House of Representatives prediction (entirely baseless)

ALP 72
Coalition 69
NXT 3
Green 2
KAP 1
independents 3
11  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas's Top Political Stategist: Trump to Win Nevada on: July 01, 2016, 07:24:56 pm
atlas forum's top political strategist is Larry Sabato
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should Virginia (the poster) be awarded with 13 electoral votes? on: July 01, 2016, 06:14:06 pm
if we're treating Virginia like a state now I call dibs on being one of her Senators
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26) on: June 26, 2016, 04:56:26 pm
98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

I don't think that coalition would be remotely feasible in the slightest?

Why's that? PNV and PNC both have histories of backing PP governments when Aznar was President (and are basically right-wing parties), and the relations haven't changed since that time. CiU also backed Aznar, but since their descendant party is pro-Catalan independence I don't think PP can find any support there.

C's -- in addition to also being a right-wing force -- have said they'll only negotiate with PP if the leader is not Rajoy, which seems like the biggest problem to this coalition if they can get up to an actual majority with the final results.

What other option is even remotely capable of approaching government formation?

all other reasons aside, C's whole deal is being completely opposed to regional nationalism
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26) on: June 26, 2016, 04:45:11 pm
98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

I don't think that coalition would be remotely feasible in the slightest?
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26) on: June 26, 2016, 02:47:09 pm
47% in
PSOE       23.96%        94
Podomos  21.39%        69 

is it just me or is that a huge seat disparity for two parties so close together in the popular vote?
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26) on: June 26, 2016, 02:43:20 pm
Right now the municipality of Madrid is at 10.3% and the municipality of Barcelona at 19.7%. The count in the Canaries started one hour later and there's less than 1% reported.

I see Barcelona at 46,45% reporting?
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26) on: June 26, 2016, 02:24:24 pm
Do we know where those results are coming from? If they're representative, this looks like a major failure for Podemos.

http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99000CM.htm?lang=es

click on the comunidades tab - Madrid is only 3.66% in but that's the only place without much reporting
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26) on: June 26, 2016, 02:11:20 pm
which party is the one that's a PODEMOS affiliate without have PODEMOS in the name? ECP?
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26) on: June 26, 2016, 01:12:31 pm
how likely is Pablo Iglesias being elected Prime Minister with these results?
20  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: June 24, 2016, 09:52:57 pm
also regarding the earlier discussion about the last episode I found this explanation compelling:

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/4pp0yz/spoilers_everything_jons_story_in_battle_of_the/
21  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: June 24, 2016, 09:52:20 pm
One other finale prediction: Iím guessing that thereís a good chance that weíll have a scene checking in with Sam?  I mean, at some point heís got to reach Oldtown, right?  Iím wondering if they saved Samís arrival in Oldtown for the finale because heís actually going to discover something pretty interesting about the White Walkers there right off the bat?  Something thatís finale-worthy, thatíll provide a good tease for next year.


I hope not, there's really no time.

It's going to be the longest episode the show's ever had...
22  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: EURO 2016 Thread on: June 22, 2016, 04:47:19 pm
final bracket

23  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: June 22, 2016, 06:14:48 am
If Cersei wildfires something I doubt it'll be anything more than the Sept of Baelor (or maybe the Red Keep, but I don't know why she would (I'm just thinking about Dany's vision in the House of the Undying here)). Earlier in the season when Bran was tripping with visions from the past/present/future, there were several flashes with visions of a dragon's shadow passing over King's Landing so I assume the city will still be intact when she finally gets there.

I think we the viewers are going to learn about Jon's true parentage (R+L=J) via Bran witnessing the rest of the Tower of Joy scene (perhaps with exposition/corroboration from Benjenhands). I don't see how Jon would definitively find out himself, though. I don't know what could be in the crypts that would reveal his parentage yet somehow remained unknown until now, and even if someone like Littlefinger knew I don't think Jon would have reason to believe it without any corroborating evidence
24  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: June 20, 2016, 11:36:37 pm
Actually Stannis' season five arc was one of the high points of the series imo.  On a different note, Sansa *did* know that the Vale knights were coming.  That's the whole point.

When did Sansa get a reply to the raven she sent Littlefinger??
25  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: June 20, 2016, 04:29:31 pm
Jon's fcking charge against the Bolton army is unbelievably dumb and actually immoral. He was taking an action that would kill his men just because he let his emotions control him. Pathetic.

I think this is entirely intentional - his resurrection took away a part of his humanity, making him far more vicious than he used to be
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