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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: Today at 04:37:34 am
again, ignorant newbie here: the most likely scenario is a Conservative-UKIP-(LD) coalition gov't?  is Labour-SNP coalition gov't possible?

No, the most likely outcome (if the election was held today, etc) would be Labour minority with tactical support from the SNP (and Plaid).

a popular betting site has the Cons.  over/under at about 285, with the Labour over/under at around 270.  why is Labour minority considered a favorite (it's not just you, the bettors have Labour minority as a small favorite over Conservative minority), is there a piece to this I'm missing?

If the SNP held the balance of power they would probably give confidence to a Labour government even if the Conservatives had more seats
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: I'm heading out again on: Today at 03:05:57 am
BRTD best of luck in Denver!
3  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: The Wiki Project of Personal Gloating on: March 27, 2015, 03:04:49 pm
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ron Paul Supporters Bolt Rand Paul Camp on: March 27, 2015, 02:52:59 pm
This situation brings up an important point: Rand Paul will never gain the complete trust of the neocons who make up the bulk of the party establishment. By continuing to appease them, he's losing a constituency that's supposed to be reliable and motivated for his campaign. Paul would be better off doubling down on his libertarian tendencies (which I suspect are still there despite what he says) while stressing the importance of growing the GOP. With this current strategy he's doing, I bet he'll definitely get less votes than his father and might even drop out in January.

I disagree. He'll never be the establishment candidate, of course, but he needs to successfully present himself as "safe" to party insiders if he's going to have any chance of winning the nomination at all.
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: US threatened Germany into not giving asylum to Snowden on: March 27, 2015, 02:01:29 am
Obama should just pardon him and be done with it.

that's more of a "last day in office" sort of move
6  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: The Wiki Project of Personal Gloating on: March 27, 2015, 01:57:34 am
Hello as a retired former Atlasian it would be cool if someone updated my page for posterity's sake, because it appears to have been last updated in 2011
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Cornell Dean Says ISIS "Welcome" at school, compares training camps to sports te on: March 26, 2015, 02:04:22 pm
can ppl stop posting threads whose sources are james okeefe
8  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: LOLGreece - Part 1268 on: March 21, 2015, 10:09:07 am
Bacon King is, by himself, a more credible source than any German newspaper on issues regarding Greece.

<3

No, that's not how an argument works. The burden of proof is on someone who contests the validity of what is the prevailing viewpoint, not on the person presenting the mainstream view.

When one "questions" something, they are the ones who have to disprove it, because the implication is that whatever is being questioned is already assumed to be true.

This is a weird rule to follow because every side in a debate should be required to back up their argument with facts if requested/contested and you shouldn't get a free pass for claiming to be speaking for conventional wisdom

some sources for my previous post:

Greek-Swiss Treaty: Athens Closes in on Wealthy Tax Evaders (Spiegel, August 2012)
Greek-Swiss tax deal remains elusive (Reuters, Feb 2014)

9  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: LOLGreece - Part 1268 on: March 18, 2015, 06:29:24 pm
This article is biased and the Swiss are being incredibly disingenuous. The Greek and Swiss governments have been in ongoing negotiations about this for several years. Greece wants Switzerland to implement a tax withholding scheme for this money, which the Swiss did in similar agreements with the UK and Austria but refuses to do for Greece. Switzerland is also not offering to do anything that would in any way weaken their bank secrecy laws- the Swiss proposal is literally just that the "Greeks should implement a voluntary self-reporting scheme for people with money in our banks, or something, then we will totally follow up on it."
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: March 18, 2015, 02:53:48 am
Here's what I have as seat count, alongside the current vote totals I'm getting them from:

Likud:             29 seats; 924,766 votes
Zionist Union: 24 seats; 744,673 votes
Joint List:        14 seats; 436,532 votes
Yesh Atid:        11 seats; 348,802 votes
Kulanu:           10 seats; 294,526 votes
Jewish Home:    8 seats; 254,663 votes
Shas:                7 seats; 230,735 votes
YB:                    6 seats; 205,619 votes
UTJ:                  7 seats; 205,551 votes
Meretz:             4 seats, 154,648 votes

11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: March 18, 2015, 02:45:49 am
regarding the uncertainty earlier in the thread about how surplus vote agreements work, this source explains it pretty well:

https://www.knesset.gov.il/lexicon/eng/seats_eng.htm

I used this very page. It is impossible to understand, to the best of my effort. At the very least, it is ambiguous on some things. I could not follow it.

Here's the full process, to my understanding:

1. Find the number of votes per seat (called the "general indicator"). Add up every vote for every list that passed the electoral threshold, then divide that number by 120.

2. Divide each list's vote total by the general indicator. Remove any decimals. This gives you the pre-surplus seat count of all the lists.

3. Parties with surplus agreements are now paired up and their votes and seats are combined for the purpose of the allocation formula. The remaining seats are allocated one at a time based on who has the biggest number for the following equation:

Number of votes for a party / (seats currently allocated to that party + 1)

4. When all 120 seats are awarded, take any seats that have been awarded to surplus agreement partners and divide them between the parties in that agreement, using the same formula as above.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: March 18, 2015, 12:52:47 am
regarding the uncertainty earlier in the thread about how surplus vote agreements work, this source explains it pretty well:

https://www.knesset.gov.il/lexicon/eng/seats_eng.htm
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: March 17, 2015, 06:13:49 pm
Any way of telling which areas have been counted so far?

http://votes20.gov.il/nationalresults

if you don't have google translate on your browser, the two links at the bottom are to excel spreadsheets that stay updated with the latest results, showing results by by precinct (upper file) and by town (lower file)
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Senate Leader Exodus on: March 16, 2015, 06:07:25 am
On the Democratic side, Klobuchar is a safe bet for leadership if she never ends up running for President. Same with Warren. I could also see Tester moving up if he does well with the DSCC
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: BREAKING: Hillary Clinton needs rehab for alcoholism on: March 15, 2015, 03:35:58 pm
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Should schools be able to expel students because of their speech on: March 15, 2015, 03:30:30 pm
Here's the actual press release from Boren about the expulsions:



In particular, note that the expulsions are because of "threatening racist behavior" which "created a hostile learning environment for others". I believe this is an entirely reasonable and valid justification.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: The UK General Election Prediction Thread on: March 14, 2015, 01:50:13 pm
Now, if Labour "needed" the SNP for the numbers, if they were clever, they could surely call their bluff and dare the SNP to vote them out, basically throwing the Tories a chance to form a new government.
That could be a brilliant move.  You could legitimately blame the SNP for a Tory entering 10 Downing Street.
But not everyone could be convinced.  Whether it is wise playing their bluff depends on what the cause of disagreement is.

Guys you're basically describing how Margaret Thatcher first became Prime Minister
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: In "Atlas Forum: The Movie" which actor would portray the previous poster? on: March 14, 2015, 06:05:44 am
Seth Rogen
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Predict who will still be in the Senate in 25 years. on: March 14, 2015, 05:11:27 am
Chris Coons
Tim Scott
James Lankford
Mike Lee
Martin Heinrich
Ben Sasse
Brian Schatz
Chris Murphy   
Tom Cotton
20  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: How widespread are dedicated work e-mail accounts? on: March 11, 2015, 02:33:11 am
Every Walmart employee in the world has their own internal corporate email account (although most non-supervisors never use it)
21  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: House of Cards on: March 10, 2015, 05:53:40 pm
Netflix should really stop trying to make original content, they're terrible at it.

just no
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Users you always mix up w/ same avatar on: March 10, 2015, 05:53:14 am
Me and griffin and Barnes and cope and a few others I'm forgetting
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Who is the earliest serving political figure that you have seen in person? on: March 10, 2015, 04:33:19 am
Ike Skelton
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Your Sexuality and Gender Identity? on: March 10, 2015, 01:53:04 am
re: hifly

let me just leave this here

Given that gender dysphoria is either a physical or mental disorder (as in the mental gender and physical sex being opposite), is cisgender really necessary as a word?

Cisgender is a nonsense word invented by the Jewish Left-Wing Press to help spread neoliberal ideals and recruit young children into homosexualism.
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Battle of the Moderators FINAL ROUND: "Bacon King vs. Mr Morden" on: March 09, 2015, 12:35:31 pm
Morden
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