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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NH Strange Rules - If Bernie gets less than 57% Votes, equal delegates split on: Today at 11:51:16 am
Actually looking some more at NH, it has 3 PLEO and 5 at large delegates. Getting the majority but less than 70% of the 2 person vote gets you 5 of those 8.

Most likely Bernie wins 4 of NH-01, 5 of NH-02, and 5 statewide, for a total of 14 out of 24.

PLEO = Superdelegates, they aren't awarded proportionally
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: Today at 11:46:55 am
For some reason, CNN has Rick Santorum on its front page montage.



I pick the dashing fellow in the bottom right corner
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win Dixville Notch, the midnight voting city? on: February 07, 2016, 04:09:16 pm
How can there be 29 voters when there are only 12 people living in that town?

The 2000 census had 75 people living in the town
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win Dixville Notch, the midnight voting city? on: February 07, 2016, 04:04:19 pm
Kasich is the only candidate to have personally visited the Notch this year, ftr
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict NH Dem numbers on: February 07, 2016, 02:10:41 pm
Hillary 53%
Bernie 46%
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Donald Trump, True Gentleman on: February 07, 2016, 12:03:58 pm
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Let's Play: You're the Campaign Manager! on: February 07, 2016, 01:31:31 am
You are the campaign manager of Marco Rubio and the debate just ended. You glance down at your phone, you see you already have a dozen missed calls. It's time for you to step out in the spin room and face the media

How do you spin Rubio's debate performance to the press

and

How do you salvage the election between now and Tuesday?
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why Is Atlas So Anti-Rubio on: February 07, 2016, 12:56:42 am
Let's dispel with this fiction that Atlas doesn't know what it's doing. We know exactly what we're doing.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Rubio implode? on: February 07, 2016, 12:03:58 am
I think Rubio had a terrible debate, but letís dispel once and for all with this fiction, that Barack Obama doesnít know what heís doing. He knows exactly what heís doing but letís dispel once and for all with this fiction, that Barack Obama doesnít know what heís doing. He knows exactly what heís doing but letís dispel once and for all with this fiction, that Barack Obama doesnít know what heís doing. He knows exactly what heís doing but letís dispel once and for all with this fiction, that Barack Obama doesnít know what heís doing. He knows exactly what heís doing but letís dispel once and for all with this fiction, that Barack Obama doesnít know what heís doing. He knows exactly what heís doing but letís dispel once and for all with this fiction, that Barack Obama doesnít know what heís doing. He knows exactly what heís doing but letís dispel once and for all with this fiction, that Barack Obama doesnít know what heís doing. He knows exactly what heís doing but letís dispel once and for all with this fiction, that Barack Obama doesnít know what heís doing. He knows exactly what heís doing but letís dispel once and for all with this fiction, that Barack Obama doesnít know what heís doing. He knows exactly what heís doing
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ABC Manchester, NH GOP debate @8pm ET **live commentary thread** on: February 06, 2016, 09:11:35 pm
If you don't think Trump won that exchange then you have no idea what you're talking about
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH-Harper Polling: Trump far ahead on: February 03, 2016, 02:44:25 pm
The big problem I notice in this poll is that the regional samples are way off. Only 18% of the poll is from Hillsborough County, even though 30% of the votes in both the 2008 and 2012 came from there. The northern half of the state was very over-polled; 25% of the poll was in either the Burlington or Portland media markets, when only 15% of the actual vote came from there in the last two primaries.

I looked at the crosstabs and did some quick math to properly weigh the results by region, and here's what I got:

Trump 31%
Kasich 13%
Bush 12%
Rubio 10%
Cruz 9%
Christie 6%
Fiorina 5%
Paul 3%
Carson 2%
undecided 7%


and a few interesting notes:
1. Gilmore actually had more supporters than Huckabee (0.42% to 0.38%)
2. While those two only round down to 0, literally nobody in the state voted for Santorum
3. Rand Paul has 0% in the county his dad won
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: PPP tweet, oh boy. on: February 03, 2016, 05:42:48 am
I think Rubio is more likely to compromise & unite than Cruz & maybe Trump because Trump has taken such extreme stuff, it will be difficult for him to backtrack due to his large ego.

Rubio was anti-immigration & then teamed up for the Gang of 8 & stuff. He is young, he wants to be liked by a large section, he will compromise.

Cruz is downright extreme

During this campaign Marco Rubio has said abortion should be illegal even when it's medically necessary to save the life of the mother. That's not something a compromiser or a uniter would say- it's ideological purist lunacy. In Marco Rubio's America, an ectopic pregnancy is literally a death sentence - so pro life! Theres also the fact that Rubio literally wants to start WW3 but I'm not even going to get into that. Rubio is the the most extreme candidatw in this race, he's just better at hiding it because his pals in the corporate media give him a free pass
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: South Carolina Maps Needed on: February 02, 2016, 02:11:11 pm
South Carolina doesn't do partisan registration

edit - a precinct map of "Turnout in SC Democratic Primary" or "share of the vote won by Democratic candidate(s)" should be easy enough though
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Delegate Fight: 2016 on: February 02, 2016, 12:23:08 pm
Speaking of the GOP party leader delegates, will you be keeping track of their public endorsements (in states that don't bind them to the public vote) like you are for DNC superdelegates?

Per Wikipedia's endorsement page, Christie and Rubio have one each; Huckabee had one before dropping out
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict the Iowa Caucus Results on: February 01, 2016, 05:07:15 am
On the GOP side I'm sticking with the prediction I made last Friday on AAD:

Trump 33%
Rubio 22%
Cruz 19%
Carson 6%
Paul 6%
Jeb! 6%
Christie 3%
Huckabee 2%
Kasich 2%
Fiorina 1%
Santorum 0%
Gilmore 0%

Changing my Iowa prediction to this, though:

Hillary 58%
Bernie 41%
unidentified man 1%
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who won the main Fox debate? on: January 28, 2016, 11:08:55 pm
uhhhh what happened to Lief's thread that actually included all the candidates?

into the trash where it actually belonged TRUMPTARDS

you are just jealous that when your candidate skipped a debate, nobody even noticed
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who won the main Fox debate? on: January 28, 2016, 10:54:10 pm
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: IA/NH/SC-NBC/WSJ: Trump Leads Everywhere; Close D Race on: January 28, 2016, 09:26:02 am
https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/status/692691283773657088

Among those with whom you can match to a registered voter list in the Marist poll in Iowa, Clinton is up 25. Down 18 among those you can't.

They typically can't match ~60% of respondents, for what it's worth. Even if you don't take into account that you can register to vote at your caucus location (and therefore the candidate doing better among first time voters will underperform on this measurement), there are plenty of reasons why they wouldn't be able to accurately match all respondents to a voter list, even if they are registered
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio for Vice President. on: January 25, 2016, 04:46:47 pm
some lame  atlas/aad joke

Huh? It's all over reddit and twitter - definitely a scandal that's starting to gain some serious traction

https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/42cvjr/something_very_interesting_some_friends_and_i/
https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/42d1nl/marco_rubios_arrest_in_1990_was_for_having_public/
https://www.reddit.com/r/Drama/comments/42e28f/marco_rubio_was_arrested_for_having_gay_sex_at/
https://www.reddit.com/r/Miami/comments/42eglz/marco_rubio_suspected_of_having_gay_sex_in/
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas Forum IRC Channel, Thread 2 on: January 13, 2016, 01:57:42 am
doot doot
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How old are you? on: January 07, 2016, 01:30:37 am
26 as of last month

20

wow I thought you were older than me
22  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Hottest female politicians of the World on: January 06, 2016, 10:17:50 pm
Barbara Mikulski
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Ivanka Trump Considering Run for Public Office on: January 06, 2016, 10:16:07 pm
Ivanka is 35...

TRUMP/TRUMP 2016
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Moderator changes in 2016 on: January 06, 2016, 01:56:05 am
US General Discussion: Mr. Moderate has been gone for months, so Torieís taken his place here

Is this a sick joke?

Edit: Omg no you were serious

I for one am glad to be free from moderator politics
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Hello on: January 06, 2016, 01:52:02 am
do you like butt stuff
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 638


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