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May 06, 2015, 06:34:06 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: Today at 01:08:50 am
NDP just made 600,000 votes
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: Today at 12:25:31 am
I we had something like the "Blue Georgia is turning into Red Georgia" gif. This time it actually happened!

this is close-ish

3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 05, 2015, 11:07:41 pm
NDP was formed from the CCF. the CCF was founded in Calgary.

THE NDP HAS FINALLY COME HOME









4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 05, 2015, 10:06:35 pm
PRENTICE LEAD DOWN TO THREE PERCENT
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: May 04, 2015, 12:54:58 pm
Lib Dem 94 Sad
Labour 93
Green 90
SNP 88
PC 85
SF 80

Tory 36
BNP 23
UKIP 15
DUP 3
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 03, 2015, 05:26:58 pm
Isn't it already the last minute though?
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: April 29, 2015, 03:19:11 pm
BK FAMILY TRACKER: INTERNATIONAL EDITION

I have a cousin in Calgary-Fort who reports "the orange party has more signs and stuff than everyone else combined" and he was visited at home by canvassing NDP candidate Joe Ceci. No contact from any other candidates. He's since seen Ceci twice more at community events.
8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Forget the Mile High Club........ on: April 29, 2015, 12:00:47 pm
12/4/5
9  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Vote Aye: Atlasians for Electoral Reform on: April 26, 2015, 09:28:55 am
How many of you actually remember district elections? lol

District elections sucked back then because we only had like 12 voters per district. The at-large system made sense at the time.

Never understood why we got rid of districts.

X - Earl

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=66341.0

Aside from Spade and BrandonH, everyone in the Senate at the time supported it and there wasn't much debate on the merits for or against. Probably, just like with this one, the merits were debated on the AFE board. Wink

interesting read here, actually: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=66680.0

There was no debate at the time because it was the second time they passed it Tongue
10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Do you reveal your political map nerd power level in public? on: April 26, 2015, 01:02:17 am
Inspired by this:

One thing I have learned is never to try talking to real British people about the election (outside of this forum, o/c), as it turns out that I actually know more about it than they do.  One person today claimed that UKIP were poised to win, and any other party's victory meant that the UK was "guaranteed" to join the Eurozone within the next few years.  I thanked them for helping a stupid American understand these real truths.

Are you the kind of person who would go, "well, actually..." or would you do what Joe did? How often do you talk politics in real life with people from other parts of the country/world that you should have no real reason knowing about? What's the most you've ever done to expose your power level?

Discuss with maps!
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: April 25, 2015, 06:08:45 pm
Her actual words were much more nuanced:

Quote from: the same Calgary Herald article
“Gateway is not the right decision. I think that there’s just too much environmental sensitivity there and I think there’s a genuine concern by the indigenous communities,” she said. “It’s not going to go ahead. I think most people know that.”

Notley said, however, that the NDP is interested in both the proposed expansion of Kinder Morgan’s TransMountain line to Vancouver and the proposed Energy East pipeline to Atlantic Canada.

link: http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/notley-works-to-build-calgary-support-but-pipeline-and-royalty-issues-loom
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What are some geographic locations that you have an unusual desire to visit? on: April 24, 2015, 11:51:59 pm
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: April 24, 2015, 09:33:33 am
Also worth noting that the poll was conducted before the debate and therefore doesn't include any post-debate bounce
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: April 23, 2015, 09:05:33 pm


lol
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Senate Confirms Lynch as AG on: April 23, 2015, 05:23:20 pm
Apparently this is the vote Johnson is hoping will get him reelected.

The whole Aye list looks like a GOP re-election campaign. It's pretty stupid, of course. Nobody will be voting in 2016 over Loretta Lynch's confirmation.

1. I think it's more so their opponents won't be able to label them as "obstructionists" for blocking the confirmation of an Attorney General in the event that Lynch didn't have the votes. Nobody cares that they voted aye but voting nay would have been ammunition for an attack ad
2. I've always been under the impression that usually when legislators running for reelection make these kind of aisle-crossing votes, it's more about the big picture statistics; e.g. if Kirk votes for noncontroversial Democratic bills occasionally then he can avoid getting attacked for "voting with the GOP 99% of the time" or whatever
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Meet the GOP's unconventional new star on: April 22, 2015, 06:56:10 pm
You're not a star when you win by 167 votes in a republican tidal wave election. Enough said.

Well.. to call 2014 a "tidal wave election" seems exaggerated. It was a great Republican election, but not a tidal wave by any means.

The largest GOP majority in the House since Coolidge was president, a nine seat gain in the Senate, the reelection of several unpopular incumbent governors as well as new Republican governors in several very liberal states. If that's not a "tidal wave" then you're just arguing pointless semantics about terminology
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: April 21, 2015, 11:17:39 am
With these numbers, I have 44 NDP, 42 Wildrose and 1 PC....Jim Prentice himself.

LOL

Hoping for this result for sheer comedy value
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The five worst banned/no longer posting posters in Atlas history on: April 21, 2015, 11:13:53 am
Worst poster not yet mentioned in this thread: poundingtherock

He managed the extremely rare feat of a 90%+ HP rating:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=129854.0


Morden you are amazing, your indexing/referencing skills are superhuman
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What is your number on the Kinsey Scale? on: April 21, 2015, 11:07:08 am
1 to 2 depending on the precise definition of "incidentally"
20  General Discussion / History / Re: Why was John Kerry such a compelling candidate for the Dem Establishment in '04? on: April 21, 2015, 12:23:05 am
He brought nothing to the table. He was from a safe state in a region that had already begun to favor Democrats. He had a very liberal record as senator with little that could appeal to moderate or independent voters. His public persona was underwhelming and offputting, and his super-rich background made him easy fodder for ridicule.

Why was he considered the Establishment/default candidate to begin with? Why did he have such an easy time winning the primaries? (Compared to, say, Mitt Romney in 2012.)

The front-runners were anti-war populist Dean and moderate establishment Gephardt, but in the run-up to Iowa the two went very negative against each other which basically destroyed either's chances. Kerry became the new frontrunner after winning Iowa and used his insider status to quickly clinch the nomination against all the outsiders that were still in the race, like Edwards and Clark.

I don't recall him being very popular even among partisan Democrats; he was basically just the consensus "least bad option" still standing after Iowa.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 20, 2015, 02:27:25 pm
So what is Jim Murphy's strategy, exactly? It's like he's already written off all the voters Labour has lost to the SNP, so now he's just trying to salvage what he can by blatantly pandering for pro-union tactical votes from the Tories
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: April 20, 2015, 06:47:57 am
Its worth noting that 1abvote uses Google Surveys, which is a very different methodology than what other pollsters are doing and still something that's mostly untested for political polling. Their numbers have routinely placed NDP (and Alberta Party) higher and Wildrose lower than what the other pollsters are showing in this election. All three polls that have shown NDP in the lead are 1abvote polls

23  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: What is the silliest thing... on: April 20, 2015, 12:04:35 am
Times like this I wish I never stopped being pacific justice Sad
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Neoliberal corporatist Hillary swings wildly to the left after feet held to fire on: April 16, 2015, 05:29:03 pm
Hillary's top campaign doners are Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase.
If you believe she gives any genuine consideration into income inequality then you're not paying attention.

1. Hillary Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign raised $229.4 million from its donors.
2. Those three "donors" you list only donated a combined $1.3 million to Hillary's campaign.
3. "The organizations themselves did not donate , rather the money came from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families."
4. Hillary's two biggest donors were actually EMILY's List and the law firm DLA Piper; those three banks were donors 3 thru 5.
5. All three of those banks gave Obama over twice what they gave Hillary.


25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election, 2015 on: April 16, 2015, 11:48:08 am
Going by daveberta.ca I looked at all the nominations so far and put this together to see who exactly is running against who:

PC NDP WR LIB AP will all be on the ballot together in 11 constituencies

PC NDP WR AP will be on the ballot without LIB in 23 constituencies
PC NDP WR LIB will be on the ballot without AP in 18 constituencies**
PC NDP LIB AP will be on the ballot without WR in 1 constituency

** = in Edmonton-Centre the Alberta Party is not running a candidate because they have explicitly endorsed the Liberal candidate

PC NDP WR together without LIB AP in 26 constituencies
PC NDP LIB together without WR AP in 4 constituencies
PC NDP AP together without WR LIB in 1 constituency

Just PC NDP without WR LIB AP in 3 constituencies
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