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October 25, 2014, 01:19:23 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Most Serene Squirrel for President on: Today at 12:55:09 pm
That candidacy is nuts.

Did anyone get the meaning of my statement?

Yes I thought your pun was the highlight of this thread
2  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: My public challenge to Nix, Kemp,Griffin, Flo on: Today at 10:42:33 am
DUEL DUEL DUEL DUEL
3  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: GRIFFGRAPH ELECTION CENTER on: Today at 08:36:38 am
Last voter: Hawkeye

President

first round
Lumine/SJoyce:     27
Marokai/Antonio:   20
Poirot/shua:          17
Al/Hashemite:       10
Lief/BK:                   2
exhausted:              2

second round
Lumine/SJoyce:    28
Marokai/Antonio:  25
Poirot/shua:         19
exhausted:             6

third round
Lumine/SJoyce:    41
Marokai/Antonio:  26
exhausted:           11

Lumine/SJoyce victory with 15 vote margin



Northeast

First Round
Matt:    9
Bore:    8
Lief:     6
exhausted: 1

Second Round
Bore:   11
Matt:   11
exhausted: 2

Runoff election between Bore and MattVT



Mideast

Windjammer: 13
Cassius:           6
Bmotley:          5

Windjammer victory with two-vote margin avoiding a second round



Midwest

TNF: 6
Cris: 4

TNF victory with two-vote margin



Pacific

Cranberry:   9
Bacon King: 1
exhausted:  1

TheCranberry victory: basically unopposed



Southeast AKA Dirty South AKA Filthy South AKA Imperial Dominion of the South

NCYankee: 9

NCYankee victory: completely unopposed
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NV: Global Strategy Group: Sandoval near 70% (!) on: Today at 06:34:15 am
New theory: every Nevada politician is actually a wax sculpture that's escaped from Madame Tussauds
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MA: Coakley (D) internal: Baker (R) +2 on: Today at 06:31:53 am
omg is coakley really this terrible??
6  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Abolish The Pacific: a four-region plan that might be crazy enough to work on: Today at 06:22:56 am
And if you look at the voter rolls in the Pacific now, it surely isn't bound to happen these days. Even with a crowdsourced-aggregate map and detailed plan that we spent months on, people couldn't get on board. But anyone who's wanting to continue carrying the torch of consolidation need only finish ratifying FTRA in (2?) of the 3 regions that have yet to ratify it to begin the next phase (consent; Senate). If a majority of a regional legislature is willing to support that, then they can use the 17th Amendment to make it happen (at least that one part of the consolidation)

Which regions haven't passed it? Is there a link to the text of this FTRA because it doesn't look like there's a spot on the Wiki for unsuccessful/yet-to-be-successful amendments to the third constitution
7  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Abolish The Pacific: a four-region plan that might be crazy enough to work on: Today at 04:59:54 am
  • The Northeast (40 people) and Mideast (48 people) are large and active so they're untouched
  • IDS (25), Pacific (26), and Midwest (29) are small so should be merged into two
  • The map is prettier if the Pacific is the one carved up
  • Also works because Midwest and IDS both have strong distinct cultures
  • The only notable thing about the Pacific is we literally tried to abolish ourselves already anyway
  • I gave the South Oklahoma and Kansas to make the map tidier
  • New South has 42 people, New Midwest has 38
  • I also gave the Maritime provinces from the IDS to the Northeast but they're unpopulated so it doesn't really matter
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NV: Global Strategy Group: Sandoval near 70% (!) on: Today at 03:17:43 am
Well if he's gonna lose anyway, no point in having his creepy face sully up the pamphlet



(is it just me or does he look like he's made of plastic)
9  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: BREAKING: Stupid tiebreaking laws might affect the Northeast Senate race on: Today at 03:06:12 am
The fact that we're even having to talk about a potential tie in this race (though it happens in every NE Senate race) is pretty telling on the part of the NE electorate, but I have faith in four-term John Borre'w.

I think the Northeast just likes close elections apparently?

Also if you look at second preferences, there's a wacky rock-paper-scissors effect going on. If Lief is eliminated first, the majority of his votes flow to Bore; if Bore is out first, then most of his votes flow to Matt; and if Matt loses first, his votes go to Lief. I mean, it's still early, but if the current trend holds then the strategic masterminds out there trying to game the race will basically need all three finishing in a specific order in the first round to achieve their desired outcome

I will do something about this.

Thank you kindly Mr Senator
10  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / BREAKING: Stupid tiebreaking laws might affect the Northeast Senate race on: Today at 02:46:16 am
Quote
2. If no candidate has a majority of highest preference votes, the candidate with the fewest highest preferences shall be eliminated, and his or her votes redistributed according to the next-highest preferences of the voters.

3. If, after the implementation of Clause 2 of this Section, any candidate shall have a majority of the highest preference votes, then that candidate shall be declared the winner of the election. If no such candidate shall exist, then Clause 2 of this Section shall be implemented again until such a candidate does exist, or until all candidates have the same number of highest preference votes.

4. If two or more candidates are tied for the least number of highest preference votes, but none of those candidates are tied for the greatest number of highest preference votes, then the following procedure shall be used to determine which candidate is eliminated:
         1. The candidate with the least total number of preferences expressed by voters shall be eliminated.
         2. The Senate shall vote on which candidate to eliminate, with the Vice President being able to cast a tie-breaking vote if necessary.

If all three of Lief, Bore, and Matt are tied in first preferences, it immediately goes to a new runoff election with all three of them! Fun fact: the runoff part of CESRA says you can only vote for one candidate, and that a candidate must have a majority to win. Even in a three man race!



Also, say the vote spread ends up like it was on an earlier count: something like Lief 6, Matt 5, Bore 5. The first way to break the tie between Matt and Bore is to look at how many total preferences they got from every voter, no matter how low of a preference it might be.

So a vote like this doesn't count for Matt in this tiebreaker:

Quote from: vote that would not count or Matt over Bore
1. Lief
2. Matt
3-35: everyone else in the Northeast
36. Literally Hitler
37. Bore

However, a vote like this would count for Matt to win the tie, even if all of Bore's votes will subsequently flow to Matt and cause Lief to lose:

Quote from: Vote that would count for Matt even if it'd cause him to beat Lief
1. Lief
2. Matt

Also, none of the votes below count for either candidate in the tiebreaker

Quote from: You think this would count for Matt over Bore but it wouldn't
1. Matt
2. Lief
3. Bore
Quote from: You think this would count for Bore over Matt but it wouldn't
1. Bore
2. Lief
3. Matt
Quote from: You might think this would count for Matt over Bore but it wouldn't
1. Lief
2. Matt
3. Bore

Basically the tiebreaker is literally just "whose voters were less likely to bother to fill out their ballot?" and not anything that's a substantially meaningful tiebreaker. Not even "who had more support in a previous round" (although that wouldn't be applicable here)



What if, in the above example, Matt and Bore are tied for second place, and also tied in their total number of preferences? You know who breaks the tie then? The Senate! They would literally have to be rounded up so they can break the tie by voting for one of them over the other (so Senators from the Northeast would get two votes!) There are no further steps or anything- "part two" in breaking ties is literally "ok the other thing didn't work so the senate can pick a winner for us".



This all seems kind of ridiculous and we should probably change it. Assuming Lumine maintains his lead and wins, I will run in the Special Election to replace him and a bill fixing this silliness is the first thing I would propose.
11  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: GRIFFGRAPH ELECTION CENTER on: Today at 12:58:35 am
And Senate Races! Last Voter: Foucaulf



Northeast

First Round
Bore:    8
Matt:    8
Lief:     6
exhausted: 1

Second Round
Bore:   11
Matt:   10
exhausted: 2



Mideast

Windjammer: 12
Cassius:           5
Bmotley:          4



Midwest

Cris: 4
TNF: 3



Pacific

Cranberry:   9
Bacon King: 1



Southeast AKA Dirty South AKA Filthy South AKA Imperial Dominion of the South

NCYankee: 9
12  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: GRIFFGRAPH ELECTION CENTER on: Today at 12:17:27 am
Last voter smoltchanov:

first round
Lumine/SJoyce:    25
Marokai/Antonio:  18
Poirot/shua:         15
Al/Hashemite:        9
Lief/BK:                  2
exhausted:             1

second round
Lumine/SJoyce:    26
Marokai/Antonio:  23
Poirot/shua:         17
exhausted:             4

third round
Lumine/SJoyce:    38
Marokai/Antonio:  24
exhausted:             7
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Sarah Palin has endorsed Walker in AK-Gov race. on: October 24, 2014, 11:15:37 pm
Nobody votes against somebody they were planning to vote for because somebody they don't like suddenly endorses them.
Well hypothetically it's possible

Imagin if some GOP SuperPC made this ad and spent a million to air it nonstop in ATL:

Hi, I'm David Duke, former Grand Wizard of the KKK. In this election I support Michelle Nunn, because I personally believe she has the guts to resegregate out schools and remove the Jewish influence from our banks. Vote Michelle Nunn - for a racially pure Georgia!

That's a pretty extreme example and probably out of the bounds of what Griff was talking about.

Just a failed attempt at humor Sad
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Sarah Palin has endorsed Walker in AK-Gov race. on: October 24, 2014, 10:17:01 pm
Nobody votes against somebody they were planning to vote for because somebody they don't like suddenly endorses them.
Well hypothetically it's possible

Imagin if some GOP SuperPC made this ad and spent a million to air it nonstop in ATL:

Hi, I'm David Duke, former Grand Wizard of the KKK. In this election I support Michelle Nunn, because I personally believe she has the guts to resegregate out schools and remove the Jewish influence from our banks. Vote Michelle Nunn - for a racially pure Georgia!
15  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: October 2014 General Election - President and Regional Senators on: October 24, 2014, 05:33:36 pm
President

[1] Lief/Bacon King
[2] Most Serene Squirrel/Bacon King
[3] Al/Hashemite
[4] Lumine/SJoyceFla
[5] Marokai Blue/AntonioV
[6] Poirot/Shua

Pacific Senate
[1] BaconKing
[2] Simfan
[3] TheCranberry
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA: CNN/ORC: Nunn leads general & runoff on: October 24, 2014, 02:22:55 pm
Alternatively, if control of the Senate is at stake, turnout could be relatively high.  There is no way to know exactly how many people will vote at this point.

If control of the Senate is at stake, Nunn would be doomed. Whatever crossover support and right-leaning independent support she's getting now would evaporate instantly.

Strictly speaking if the Senate is going to change control it will have already done so by the January 8th runoff. A Nunn victory would only move the 50R-49D chamber to an even split
17  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: wikipedia.org has no page for this site on: October 24, 2014, 01:23:41 pm
Thanks - I haven't researched what makes notable criteria.  There is the google scholar citations.

120 results

Quote
Here is the Amazon listing for uselectionatlas.org

159 results

Quote
Thanks,
Dave

Dave, it's absolutely amazing and incredibly impressive that this is just something you do as a hobby and it's still managed to become such a prominent source among subject-matter experts and the academic community.

Seriously, we all obviously love your site here but it bears saying that you've done an excellent job with it and we're all very thankful for the work you do.

-Justin
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Most Overrated D Senate Candidate on: October 24, 2014, 01:11:14 pm
This thread is documented proof that we shouldn't quit our day jobs.

The Great Atlas Circlejerk is often incorrect, though if you look carefully you can find voices of reason and sanity going against the crowd who knew the truth all along
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: How did Shelley Moore Capito not get primaried? on: October 24, 2014, 01:06:38 pm
Are you guys having issues with your voter files/contacting people? I'd imagine you guys still need a few years of chipping away at the local dynamic and getting people to vote in R primaries before you can actually identify people in an efficient way. It's the same but opposite in my part of the state - we basically don't know who half of our voting bloc is because many Democrats insist on voting in state (and especially local) Republican primaries. We do have other scoring models that use data such as when people turn out, their demographics, etc to determine this sort of stuff, but it's only super-accurate when dealing with thousands of people or more at a time - can be quite inaccurate, too, when dealing with actual individuals.

Case in point: according to Adam Griffin's voter files I am a solid Republican voter because I have always voted in GOP primaries except for my very first election (2008 Presidential). I vote in these Republican races to pick the local candidates that will be unopposed in the general election and to pick the moderates in the competitive statewide GOP primaries (and/or vote for the people most likely to lose)
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Bruce Braley chicken dance ad on: October 24, 2014, 12:59:14 pm
GOP ad game in Iowa is great
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Michelle Nunn releases her best ad of the cycle on: October 24, 2014, 12:56:40 pm
Sam Nunn is a baller and I love his shirt
22  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Is democracy for everyone? on: October 24, 2014, 12:51:40 pm
Democracy is for everyone, but liberal democracy isn't
23  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Venezuela to import oil for first time ever...guess why on: October 24, 2014, 12:50:48 pm
Maduro noooo
24  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: wikipedia.org has no page for this site on: October 24, 2014, 12:49:29 pm
Doesn't wikipedia use the Atlas as their source for a tons of US elections

does the fact that wikipedia repeatedly uses it as a source count for notability?
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA: CNN/ORC: Nunn leads general & runoff on: October 24, 2014, 12:15:07 pm
Thankfully there's a runoff. I always thought Perdue, parody of self-funder, would be awful and it's worse than I imagined.

He ran a great primary campaign, but I can't get over his sh**teating grin. He's just the douchiest candidate in the country.

The hallmark of his primary campaign was having a fit over losing the Chamber of Commerce endorsement, so I wouldn't even call that great
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