Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 28, 2014, 12:51:46 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 1064
1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: 2014 Selfie Creepfest/Post a picture of yourself thread on: November 27, 2014, 02:56:10 pm
Happy Thanksgiving everyone. The tracks are the RR line from NYC to Albany, which runs right next to the east side of the Hudson River. The other pic is at the end of the main commercial street in Hudson (Warren Street), at which beyond in the direction I am facing lies Promenade Hill and then the Hudson River.



2  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Forum Redistricting Commission on: November 27, 2014, 02:45:06 pm
"A competitive district has a PVI of 2 through 5 (-0.054 to -0.015 and +0.015 to 0.054) and statistically such districts have an 3 out of 4 chance of being held by the favored party."

That seems like a very wide range to me, with 1.5 to 2.5 quite competitive, and 4-5 not much, although I suppose an examination of results in the past would be instructive. In my brain, once you hit 4, a seat is pretty safe absent unusual developments, or a significant trend going on. Is there an advantage in bifurcating this category, and adjusting the point count some?
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Does Chris McDaniel have a political future? on: November 27, 2014, 02:39:26 pm
Nope, none, nada. He's toxic.
4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Forum Redistricting Commission on: November 25, 2014, 07:58:06 pm
Muon2, are you going to use the state highway chop count as a proxy to measure erosity? Do highway chops within chopped counties count for this category?  Is there going to be some pareto optimality metric?

Thank you. I look forward to your thoughts on intra county chops. Pity I got deflected from our project. In my semi retirement there are just not enough hours in the day, and now I have Hudson on my mind.
5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Forum Redistricting Commission on: November 25, 2014, 10:23:51 am
Muon2, are you going to use the state highway chop count as a proxy to measure erosity? Do highway chops within chopped counties count for this category?  Is there going to be some pareto optimality metric?
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Does Greg Orman have any political future? on: November 25, 2014, 09:18:46 am
Nope.
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What is your height? on: November 23, 2014, 10:33:36 am
6' 1"
8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Summarize the Previous Poster in One Sentence or Less on: November 18, 2014, 10:46:02 am
Erudite chap from across the pond who does not suffer fools easily.
9  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: I've been busy in Hudson on: November 18, 2014, 10:35:05 am
Already been a pain in the butt, old man. But I'm just getting warmed up. Lot's more stuff to do - lot's more.
10  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / I've been busy in Hudson on: November 18, 2014, 10:23:18 am
causing a bit of a ruckess, here (look under documents, where you will see three attachments with my name on them) and there.

So much of my material of the Hudson weighted voting system is due to the indefatiguable energy and expertise of Jimtex, who has taken such an interest in Hudson. I simply cannot thank him enough. He has made a real difference in the civic affairs of Hudson. He has helped me to understand that which, without him, I would not have a prayer of understandng. His ability to secure and analyze data is just outstanding. In part, as a consequence of his efforts, not only is the weighted voting system going to come crumbling down, but the fallout of that and other matters is beginning to cause certain plate tectonic shifts in Hudson. One thing leads to another. I wonder where it will all end.

My latest foray is into Hudson's budgetary affairs (that is what the "there" document is about). Tonight's common council budget committee meeting, the Mayor's open meeting on the Budget, and then the common council's formal meeting on that issue, weighted voting and others, will be most interesting to witness.
11  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: November 2014 Special At-large Senate Election on: November 16, 2014, 12:03:44 pm
1. Bacon King
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 12, 2014, 08:07:38 pm
If you are going to be critical, at least know what you are talking about. The portions of the former AZ-8 that were moved to AZ-1 are Republican-leaning areas, areas that Kirkpatrick lost by double digits, so I highly doubt Barber would have been saved by those precincts.

Second, the commission allows for competitiveness to be taken into account and that is just how they drew the map.

Did you mean from AZ-02 to AZ-01?  Maybe that is the fail of communication here? Or is the former AZZ-08 now AZ-02? If so, I will check back on the AZ redistricting thread, and get back to you. No need to stick the knife in. That is just political data, no more, no less. It is what it is.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 12, 2014, 05:39:04 pm
AZ-2 is an R+3 district, as is AZ-1. AZ-9 is R+1. Yeah, those secret Democrats are really drawing the lines to protect themselves Roll Eyes

Those GOP  PVI's were inflated by McCain being on the top of the ballot in 2008.
In the 2012 election Obama won nationally by 3.86% He lost AZ-1 by 2.5%, AZ-2 by 1.5%. These are not in any way Democratic districts. They're not safe Republican seats either, granted. That is rather the entire point of having an independent commission draw the districts. Obama did win AZ-9, so if you want to to say that a statewide result in which the Democratic candidate wins 44% of the popular vote and 33% of Congressional Districts suggests a phantom Democratic gerrymander, that's your prerogative. But it puts you in JJ territory.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections#

Your'e such a sweetheart Memphis. I didn't say the seats were not competitive. What I said was that it took a Dem gerrymander to make them so, and since the Dems were greedy, and wanted two competitive CD's (the 3rd seat they called "competitive," but that was just for show - fooling no one), they jiggled stuff around and well, screwed it up a bit (it was clear to me then that they were making a mistake, but that was in the Gifford's era, so perhaps that influenced them). Thanks so much for listening.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 12, 2014, 08:20:50 am
AZ-2 is an R+3 district, as is AZ-1. AZ-9 is R+1. Yeah, those secret Democrats are really drawing the lines to protect themselves Roll Eyes

Those GOP  PVI's were inflated by McCain being on the top of the ballot in 2008.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 11, 2014, 06:21:40 pm
Shame about AZ-02, but glad Democrats are on the upswing in CA.

Blame that pseudo  independent redistricting commissioner McNulty, in reality a mole working for the Democrats, who fashioned a Democratic gerrymander in AZ. She was worried that the Democrats needed a bit more help in AZ-01, more so than in AZ-02, and at the very end of the redistricting process, moved some Dem strength from AZ-02 to AZ-01, maybe  about half a percentage point. If she had not done that, Barber would have been re-elected. Dummymander! Yes, indeed, the irony is just delicious. Tongue
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 11, 2014, 05:38:52 pm
Barber, as the AZ-02 race extravaganza winds down to its final episode, is getting squeezed almost as badly as Ose is in reverse in CA-07. Advantage McSally.



According to the Arizona Elections Results Website, McSally is now up by 133.  This is supposedly with everything in but a handful of provisional ballots in Pima County, 200-250 countywide which all won't be in the district.

Then it is over, unless a recount uncovers something. So the Pubs have very probably bagged their 247th seat, with about a 50% chance of getting to 248.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 11, 2014, 05:20:54 pm
Barber, as the AZ-02 race extravaganza winds down to its final episode, is getting squeezed almost as badly as Ose is in reverse in CA-07. Advantage McSally.

18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 11, 2014, 03:13:13 pm
Crunched the number on CA-16, and the Dems hold it.  Based on the splits of the remaining ballots, the past split of Fresno County of about 63-37 would have to drop to around 55-45 for the race to be even at the end. It isn't happening. Costa will win by about 650 votes, plus or minus.

CA-07 does not look too good for the Pubs either. Ose needs a swing to him of a couple of points on what remains, from what went before. Still in the hunt, but the underdog now.

So that leaves AZ-02, where somebody else claims that the final projection is for a 40 votes McSally win. So that one remains a slight tilt GOP seat.

The 2 LA districts and one of those three.  247?  

Yes, but now I see that CA-16 is in fact still a tossup (see addendum to my above post). I might be able to refine it if I had the last vote dump numbers, but on top of that the 4,000 remaining ballots in CA-16 in Fresno County is just an estimate (nobody knows), and I did not subtract out the expected under and over votes, leaving fewer votes that will affect the relative totals than the absolute number of ballots to be counted, so the say 90-110 vote margin for the Pub is too tiny really given the unknowns, to label the race anything but a total tossup at present based on what I know.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 11, 2014, 02:42:40 pm
Crunched the number on CA-16, and the Dems hold it.  Based on the splits of the remaining ballots, the past split of Fresno County of about 63-37 would have to drop to around 55-45 for the race to be even at the end. It isn't happening. Costa will win by about 650 votes, plus or minus.

CA-07 does not look too good for the Pubs either. Ose needs a swing to him of a couple of points on what remains, from what went before. Still in the hunt, but the underdog now.

So that leaves AZ-02, where somebody else claims that the final projection is for a 40 votes McSally win. So that one remains a slight tilt GOP seat.

Addendum: Oh, wait a minute! I forgot that Tacherra had a 741 vote lead!  Yes, Costa is expected to generate a lead out of the remaining ballots of 651 (assuming the remaining ballots break like the ones counted to date (don't know if the last vote dump was more Dem than the election day counted votes, because I can't find the details of the last vote dump numbers), leaving him 90 votes short. So this race remains a tossup more or less. My bad.

20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 11, 2014, 08:23:22 am
With 33,000 left to count in CA-07, Ose is up 530; I think Bera wins this.
http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article3727753.html

McSally's lead has dropped to 179 votes; unsure of how many are left to count. A judge also refused her move to stop counting some of the provisional ballots.
http://www.chron.com/news/article/McSally-lawyers-trying-to-block-some-ballots-5883510.php


As to AZ-02:

"McSally leads Barber by 179 votes with about 4,000 left to count in Pima County including write-ins. An automatic recount will be triggered if the two candidates end up separated by about 200 votes or less."

That means about 2,200 left to count in Pima in AZ-02.  That means Barber needs to get about a 54-46 split on the balance (a bit more if one deletes the write ins and over and under votes), to close the gap aside from all of the legal contretemps, and absent a recount changing the numbers much. I am fairly confident that has not been his margin in the late counted votes - absent something weird happening with the provisionals, which may be what this is all about. 

As to CA-07, it appears to me that Bera is on the pace to a lead by a tiny margin, very tiny. Close to two thirds of the remaining ballots have been counted outstanding in the CD since the prior vote dump (much of the County is not in the CD from looking at the votes remaining in the County) and Ose's lead dropped by just a bit more than two thirds. So the trend line change from the previous late vote dump would have to hold - as near steady as an expensive Swiss watch, to bag it for Bera.

What number of outstanding ballots are you assuming is in CD-7? Remember, this is basically half of the county by population and certainly casted more votes than CD-6 in this election. The other districts in Sacramento barely have any people in it. It might not be a bad assumption that of the 33,000 ballots left to county in the entire county, more than half would be in CD-7. Even if you are conservative, and say that only 15,000 are left in CD-7 (assuming the late voters are disproportionately poor democrats voting in CD-6), you still only need about a 52-48 Bera lead on the remaining ballots for him to win. Not easy to do, but it is certainly doable. And any recount should help Bera, IMHO.

Before the last vote dump, Bera needed about a 53-47 split to win. Now he needs about a 51.5-48.5 split to win (CA-07 has abut 55% of the Sacto County pie). So yes, if the trend holds, Bera should win by about 500 votes or something. The last vote dump was  about 53.4 to 46.6 split in favor of Bera - which if it holds for the balance of the votes, would give Bera about a 500 vote victory. Those tenths of percent changes in the trend line make all the difference. Now, the last vote dumps need to move a couple of percent in the Pub direction as you note.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 11, 2014, 01:04:51 am
With 33,000 left to count in CA-07, Ose is up 530; I think Bera wins this.
http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article3727753.html

McSally's lead has dropped to 179 votes; unsure of how many are left to count. A judge also refused her move to stop counting some of the provisional ballots.
http://www.chron.com/news/article/McSally-lawyers-trying-to-block-some-ballots-5883510.php


As to AZ-02:

"McSally leads Barber by 179 votes with about 4,000 left to count in Pima County including write-ins. An automatic recount will be triggered if the two candidates end up separated by about 200 votes or less."

That means about 2,200 left to count in Pima in AZ-02.  That means Barber needs to get about a 54-46 split on the balance (a bit more if one deletes the write ins and over and under votes), to close the gap aside from all of the legal contretemps, and absent a recount changing the numbers much. I am fairly confident that has not been his margin in the late counted votes - absent something weird happening with the provisionals, which may be what this is all about.  

As to CA-07, it appears to me that Bera is on the pace to a lead by a tiny margin, very tiny. Close to two thirds of the remaining ballots have been counted outstanding in the CD since the prior vote dump (much of the County is not in the CD from looking at the votes remaining in the County) and Ose's lead dropped by just a bit more than two thirds. So the trend line change from the previous late vote dump would have to hold - as near steady as an expensive Swiss watch, to bag it for Bera.
22  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Gentrification on: November 10, 2014, 04:20:19 pm
The block was about 35% black as of a year ago. It's now about 20% black. There is one Bangladeshi family living on the block (there is a substantial Bangladeshi community in town, who arrived to work in the now closed button factory, and just stayed on, many becoming shop owners). The rest are all white or black - no Hispanics. Interestingly, one of the gentrifiers, a gay black nurse with dreadlocks who works in Albany, is black. While he does not himself live on the block, we socialize often. Great guy - cute as a button. Class enemies are multi racial. Don't be fooled by the veneer.
23  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Gentrification on: November 10, 2014, 04:04:59 pm
Hi Memphis. How’s it hanging?

Yes, as to one particular block, in one particular small town, which once had the 4th highest population in the State of NY, and lost by one vote becoming the capital of the Empire State, in the Hudson Valley, in the last 10 months, this has transpired:

A very eccentric gay lawyer along with his artist partner gave up suburban bliss in Orange County, CA, and commenced work on this:

 [/URL]

which directly led to a NYC lawyer buying the below, and doing the same thing to this:

 


which led to an avant guard film maker buying this, and also gutting it, and building decks and fences and the like:



which led to these two puppies being gutted on the inside (whether the outside will be done remains to be seen – sometimes exteriors are left a shambles to avoid property tax reassessments):

 

And now, low and behold, as of this morning, I see that this property, in need of a bit of TLC, is being gutted inside (has a huge yard in back)

 

What is the next on the gentrification "block?" Well this property, where the owner just died. The sharks are already circling:

 

And rumor has it that the CA gay guys live in the property below, and that it will commence its journey into gentrification next Spring (job one removing the hideous red paint from the brickwork, manufactured just down the hill (the town was once a hub of brick making).



So a block that 5 years ago was known as "crack alley," now has two lawyers, three artists, etc. Property values have zoomed, incentivizing the long term owners to cash in. It becomes a veritable firestorm of gentrification.


Moral of the story?  If you don’t like gentrification, keep the gays out! They’re toxic.  And it just takes one, to get the ball rolling. Frightening almost, isn't it? As opebo would say, such class enemies should be guillotined, and wiped out. That is the only real way to stop this cancer from spreading.



24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Are you surprised that CO-SEN ended up way closer than IA-SEN? on: November 10, 2014, 02:38:24 pm
In other news, NY may have the most swing voters of all (particularly upstate). It just isn't that ideological a state. It is just all masked by its overall heavy Dem leaning. The Dems were just trashed in upstate NY, losing everything that was not totally nailed down, up and down the ballot, and almost losing NY-25, which was supposed to be nailed down tight. Big swings on Long Island as well.

Huh? Dems only lost two seats in upstate NY, one of which was practically handed to the GOP (NY-21). The other one was Maffei, who is a horrendous candidate and has been since 2006. Maloney who you were insisting would lose also won. Wink

Mahoney's win was very impressive (I suspect he is a very talented politician), and the GOP swing was more muted in the northern NYC burbs. I think the Dems lost 5 state senate seats upstate, and nearly lost my local assembly district, which is quite heavily Dem in a Dem gerrymander. The only upstate Congress Dems left are the Buffalo and Albany seats, and, barely, the Rochester seat.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Are you surprised that CO-SEN ended up way closer than IA-SEN? on: November 10, 2014, 02:28:03 pm
In other news, NY may have the most swing voters of all (particularly upstate). It just isn't that ideological a state. It is just all masked by its overall heavy Dem leaning. The Dems were just trashed in upstate NY, losing everything that was not totally nailed down, up and down the ballot, and almost losing NY-25, which was supposed to be nailed down tight. Big swings on Long Island as well.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 1064


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines