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October 21, 2014, 04:37:52 pm
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1  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Is there a list of Mods along with their tenure anywhere? on: October 20, 2014, 06:50:15 pm
If a Mod perceives that he or she has become more of the problem than the solution, or loses enthusiasm or time for the job, than retirement is in order. Most Mods here I think get good marks from a substantial majority of the Forum. For that, we should count ourselves blessed. And who in their right mind would really want Morden to retire, as long as he keeps his game up? Than would be nutter really.
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinon of the Previos Poster on: October 20, 2014, 06:14:28 pm
FF. But be yourself, be kind, be self confident, be honest, admit your mistakes and seek to learn and be curious, and you will be less insecure and unhappy. Life is a grand adventure of learning and joy, if managed wisely - easier said than done of course, based on my own misadventures, many misadventures.
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is KCDem a sock of krazen? on: October 20, 2014, 05:29:56 pm
One problem with this thesis, is that the socking is asymmetrical. Beyond the krazen penchant to generate the Ann Coulter type of buzz from just being in your face, there is some substance there in between the seams of streams of uric acid. KCDem is the null set - there is nothing there at all. Unless of course, that is well, yet another embodiment of the performance art - the asymmetry itself.
4  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Attention Whoring: Seeking advice regarding depression/meds on: October 20, 2014, 05:23:07 pm
You working out? If not, try it, and try it hard, no matter how depressed you are prior to commencing. That might be your best therapy. I mean that.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-Gravis: Tillis (R) up 5. on: October 20, 2014, 02:48:00 pm
Dominating.

I was going to post that, just to pay homage to your meme, but of course, you got in first. Smiley
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NH: Suffolk: Shaheen +3 on: October 20, 2014, 02:46:44 pm
Pursuant to some statistical mumbo-jumbo, if the incumbent hits 47%, it's generally a tossup race. So two points to go!  Smiley
7  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 20, 2014, 08:20:08 am
Census Tract 12, Block Group 4



Jimtex, unless I am missing something, exclusive of the Front St block misallocation and perhaps what you call the Great Northern block allocation (not sure where you got the 32 number in that block that goes in Ward 2 (which is what I used in my chart), per you map earlier on in the thread), pursuant to the ward map being different than what the charter specifies, based on your chart in Reply # 107 above, the only population errors arising from that error appear to be that the 20 persons in block 4000, plus whatever number of persons lived in the houses depicted in the aerial below in block 1012 along Harry Howard Ave., need to be deducted from the 2,485 population of Ward 5 and added to Ward 4. Do you agree?



I am confused by your discussion about the Columbia Turnpike bit, since the map you drew seems to comport with what the charter specifies, so there is no population error involved given that the map is accurate. What am I missing there?

In other news, I am told that the  folks in block 1011 (the Crosswinds Apartments, population 59), vote in Ward 4 rather than Ward 5 for some reason, which would be yet another error. Fun stuff isn't it?


8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What is your walkscore? on: October 19, 2014, 02:30:38 pm
73
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WaPo's "Election Lab 2014" Senate Ratings on: October 19, 2014, 12:17:40 pm
Because  its metrics weight current poll numbers less, and underlying fundamentals more. In other words, the model "predicts" where the polls will end up rather than the current numbers, more than other forecasters do.
10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should opebo have his own Jon Stewart/John Oliver style show? on: October 19, 2014, 12:08:23 pm
The repertoire would be quite limited (e.g., Thailand, prostitutes, guillotines, certain culinary delights, monarchical Marxism, old clunky cars, errant election forecasting), so the show would become very repetitive.
11  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you consider yourself morally superior to the average Atlas poster? on: October 19, 2014, 12:03:09 pm
Anyone who was so self deluded, and/or would deem it reasonable to respond to such a problematical question fraught among other things with definitional issues, would be a fool to admit it in public.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 18, 2014, 11:11:12 am
LOL! Well done Bedstuy.  I have a little feeling in my gut that I might have been "owned" on this one.

Yeah, you got brutally owned. You should do more research next time, son.

Yes, twist the knife, and then twist it some more. Thanks.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 18, 2014, 10:52:35 am
LOL! Well done Bedstuy.  I have a little feeling in my gut that I might have been "owned" on this one. Oh well, I don't have the time or motivation to try to rehabilitate her here. So I will just accept my "spanking,"  and move on to more favorable venues. Cheers.
14  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which Presidents would you most want to go drinking with? on: October 18, 2014, 09:07:05 am
This one is easy. Bill Clinton. Nobody else comes close.
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of wormyguy on: October 18, 2014, 09:04:58 am
Tedious.
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Did you like going through a car wash as a kid? on: October 18, 2014, 07:36:41 am
Yes, and it was fabulous - better than a ride at Disneyland.
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which posters would you most like as a roommate? on: October 18, 2014, 07:33:56 am
The gay ones, plus Alcon come to mind. Smiley

We'd have to agree to never talk politics then.

No problem. I rarely talk politics with my partner Dan. He's a total pinko.  Smiley  One aspect of wisdom in my view, is avoiding choosing your friends through a political lens. In point of fact, most of my friends tend to be considerably to the left of I, reflecting I guess temperament and interests.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 18, 2014, 07:31:13 am
Stupendous news! An extremist nutjob like Ernst has no business being a US Senator.

Is it possible that Braley is improving because of early voting? In other words, Dems are getting a lot of people out to vote who would normally be shut out of the LV screen, but you can't say someone who already voted isn't a likely voter.

You really believe the above?

Yes?

The question mark appended to the "yes" meaning that you are unsure if you really believe what you said?

The question mark was because your question was fairly odd, considering any rational person knows that Joni Ernst is an extremist nutjob.

IC. I guess that I am just irrational then. Thanks.

Perhaps. Unless you think that someone who thinks Obama is a dictator that should be impeached, peddles Agenda 21 conspiracy theories, supports Personhood which failed even in Mississippi, thinks the EPA should be abolished, thinks Iraq had WMDs, etc. is not an extremist. She's basically a more charismatic version of Sharron Angle. I know the Republicans have gone far right recently, but even by that standard she's still way out of the mainstream.

Seriously Torie. I may've been a godless Democrat not THAT long ago, but how is she materially different than, say, Michelle Bachmann? If Ernst isn't extreme, then.....Huh

I don't claim to be an expert on Ernst by any means, but I would be shocked if she exuded Bachmann's amoral disingenuous arrogance and hubris. She seems a more practical down to earth kind of person, no doubt with an overly simplistic view of the world, and probably not very sophisticated, but then Iowa is kind of like that in many ways. I just find it hard to believe that if she were truly a nut case, she would be as competitive as she is, even with Braley's shortcomings.

Oh, I am the one that is Godless, not you. Don't be so hard on yourself!  Smiley
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: CO-06: Coffman in the lead on: October 17, 2014, 04:02:43 pm
The VRA costs the Dems about 5 seats or so, is my guess, net. In the West, and Texas, vis a vis Hispanic voters, the VRA costs the Pubs, maybe 2 or 3 seats in CA, and at least 1 and maybe 2 in Texas.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The democrats are going to gain a seat in the senate this november on: October 17, 2014, 02:55:35 pm
This thread is going to have every blue avatar bumping it after Election Day. Great work!

These kids are just hilarious aren't they?  What's most interesting to me, in this otherwise boring and rather predictable election cycle, are all these rather safe Dem House seats that now suddenly seem to be in play, you know like MN-08 and those two Mass. seats, and ME-02 and the old Braley seat in Iowa and so forth, with some potential surprise Dem problems in NY as well.

Is it almost election day? Time for some classic Torie concern trolling about how big the Republican wave is going to be.

Meanwhile, Democrats are poised to pick up seats like FL-02, NE-02, and IA-03. Republicans won't gain more than a handful of seats net.

You just posted there would be a Dem wave (well it's "building" you say, whatever), so more salient, or at least more interesting, is how many seats you think the Pubs will lose actually. I would surmise it would have to be more than 15 if you are tossing the word "wave" around.

In the meantime, just to satisfy your insatiable and intrusive curiosity, my wild guess, which may change of course based on new data, is that the Pubs are in the hunt for a dozen seat gain. You can write that down. Thanks.

And just why do so many around here misuse the term "troll" so egregiously? Is there something in the local water supply or what?
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NE-02: With Terry (R) down in the polls, Republicans getting desparate on: October 17, 2014, 02:48:57 pm
http://atr.rollcall.com/elections-2014-nrcc-lee-terry-willie-horton/

Quote
The National Republican Congressional Committee went up with an ad Friday tying the Democratic nominee in a competitive Nebraska House race to Nikko Jenkins, a former inmate convicted of murdering four people after his early release from jail.

Privately, both Democrats and Republicans acknowledge Terry is down in polls to his Democratic challenger, state Sen. Brad Ashford. It’s almost exclusively thanks to Terry’s negative image among likely voters in the district, which voted for GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney by a 7-point margin in 2012.

“From the political perspective, they have to make Brad Ashford unpalatable or untrustworthy at this point,” said one Nebraska Republican operative unaffiliated with the race. “It’s a tough race for Lee, but I think there’s a path to victory for him.”

D+1! Looks like the Democratic House wave is building after all.

I think it may just be localized to Omaha, because that is where Deadoman lives, and swing voters are offended by his posts right on the the Atlas.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Lima, Ohio: A portrait of not getting by in the Rust Belt on: October 17, 2014, 02:08:06 pm
Right, not too poor to leave, too stuck to leave.  As somebody that GTFO of a sh**tty place to improve my life, I have little sympathy.  Perhaps I should have more, but I still contend that you can't be too poor to move.  There might be other commitments and mental hangups keeping you in place, but poverty isn't one of them.


edit-and that's not to say it isn't hard or scary, it certainly can be.  It's also fun and exciting.  Getting to meet new people, new cultures, new food, new ideas.  These are good things that make us more rounded people.

That may be high on the agenda for you and me, but for many of them, it is hardly on the agenda at all. What is familiar is far preferable to the "new."
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which posters would you most like as a roommate? on: October 17, 2014, 01:59:28 pm
The gay ones, plus Alcon come to mind. Smiley
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: MN-08: SUSA: Nolan down 8 (!) on: October 17, 2014, 01:57:20 pm
SUSA in Minnesota is historically pretty weird. I don't really buy this.

By 'historically pretty weird' you mean, of course, 'so heavily slanted to the GOP that they're worse than useless'. Though as (alas) this district fell in 2010 we should avoid complacency...

If I had to bet, I suspect this seat will fall this time - along with a few other Dem seats not thought to be in play until relatively recently. We shall see.
25  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: Is the previous poster more or less libertarian than you? on: October 17, 2014, 01:42:33 pm
More. Smiley
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