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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Al Realpolitik Institute of Sulfur Mining & Extraction on: May 21, 2015, 02:13:35 pm
I see there's been no locking here.  The mods are becoming desperate, as the decreased ad revenue due to "the exodus" has put Atlas Proper on the brink of collapse. 

A stunning development.

Wrong. The Mods of this Board will review it when they are around. It was reported by someone prior to the time I noticed it for that matter. There has been no discussion in the Cave whatsoever about the new Forum. It's a non issue. All the Mods who have spoken publicly about the matter, support the new Forum, and have no problem with it, with some at least thinking it is a good solution for all concerned. Anyway, there is certainly no "us" versus "them" mentality.
This has got to be one of the most disingenuous posts ever written on Atlas.

A fraudulent cut and paste job. Nice. Tongue
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why is SSM such a big deal? on: May 21, 2015, 12:54:45 pm
Imagine if Republicans promoted military spending by instructing soldiers to point their guns at the citizenry until they agreed to raise the military budget.

Now you have some vague understanding of how the Democratic Party operates. Terrorize and disrupt until the job is done, even if terrorizing and disrupting are not productive or necessary.

I have not noticed any gun pointing myself by SSM proponents. Rather it has all been ballot box and court action, where SSM proponents having a very high batting average. Yes, I know, you don't really believe your own hyperbole, but I digress. I also haven't noticed the word "Hitler" bandied about much either, and you know the Hitler rule - you invoke his name inappropriately, and you automatically lose the argument out of the box.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Gallup poll: Record percentage support SSM on: May 21, 2015, 11:20:52 am
Including per this poll, 37% of Pubs now, and apparently a majority of Pubs under 65 supporting SSM. A quarter of the voters now say they won't vote for a candidate who does not share their view on SSM. For those Pubs who have not got the memo yet, that SSM is toxic to them, and they need to get the issue off the table, this poll is yet another reminder. Presumably most Pub politicians are hoping that SCOTUS does the dirty little deed for them.

Republicans mistakenly believe that SSM is an issue they can take a comfortable moderate hero position on. Public perception has changed significantly even over the last 4 years.

The problem, of course, is that many Republicans keep insulated company and have little exposure to American culture as a whole. They simply don't understand the mind of a voter who flips on the issue. Most people change their minds on this issue based on emotion. If you change your mind on gay marriage because your cousin is gay, or because a coworker is gay, a rollback of gay marriage rights immediately looks like an attack on those people you know personally by the government. (Because, you know, it is.)

Correct, and in addition to 25% saying the issue is a deal killer in and of itself, close to another 50% of the voters think it is a very important issue. So it is an issue that Pub politicians can no longer count on not hurting them much, even if their position is now a minority one, and a diminishing minority to boot, because voters on the other side will just hit the ignore button, and give them a pass. Those days are indeed rapidly coming to an end. As time goes by, the issue has more and more salience, not less.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why is SSM such a big deal? on: May 21, 2015, 10:21:03 am
Because being so cruel to a group of people as to an matter that is one of the most important aspect of our lives, marriage, for reasons that have no reasonable public policy basis as shown by the data, and thus seem based on bigotry or  priori religious beliefs that do not have a independent secular public policy rationale based on the data, is shocking to the conscience. I am just saying what others have said in a different way.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Gallup poll: Record percentage support SSM on: May 21, 2015, 10:09:35 am
Including per this poll, 37% of Pubs now, and apparently a majority of Pubs under 65 supporting SSM. A quarter of the voters now say they won't vote for a candidate who does not share their view on SSM. For those Pubs who have not got the memo yet, that SSM is toxic to them, and they need to get the issue off the table, this poll is yet another reminder. Presumably most Pub politicians are hoping that SCOTUS does the dirty little deed for them.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Congratulations to our new Majority Leader, Chuck Schumer! on: May 20, 2015, 05:15:54 pm
I'm quite an admirer of Schumer actually. He has matured like a fine Bordeaux wine.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz: Why is the left obsessed with sex? on: May 20, 2015, 05:13:09 pm
Surprising spat of inarticulateness from Cruz. I think he meant obsessed with SSM. Actually I read somewhere, that more conservative men are more sexually aggressive than liberal ones, and get more action. Anyway, I plead guilty to being obsessed by sex, so think about that one Cruz. Thank you.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread on: May 19, 2015, 06:39:53 pm
38% reporting!

Bevin: 34.6%
Heiner: 32.7%
Comer: 25.3%


It's all about the relative percentages still out from the cities versus the countryside, in particular how much of Jefferson and Lexington counties are still not in.

61% of Jefferson has reported. 100% of Fayette has apparently reported. Looks very good for Bevin so far, Comer not doing as well as he should in Western Kentucky. Bevin outperforming in Eastern Kentucky.

Yes, it appears the Dems will retain the KY governorship absent a surprise. Heiner has shot his wad.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread on: May 19, 2015, 06:33:06 pm
38% reporting!

Bevin: 34.6%
Heiner: 32.7%
Comer: 25.3%


It's all about the relative percentages still out from the cities versus the countryside, in particular how much of Jefferson and Lexington counties are still not in.
10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you binge drink? on: May 19, 2015, 06:21:48 pm
However, what the government considers "heavy drinking" is like three glasses of wine a day or something. I think we're all "heavy drinkers," then. Tongue

...don't worry.  I got you and me both covered.  I'm on drink number six. 


I'm on 5.  More to follow

Do you mellow out when heavily buzzed?
11  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: Predict the Previous Poster's Result in the Preceding County. on: May 19, 2015, 06:18:54 pm
83%

Tompkins County, NY

Would not get the Dem nomination for a host of reasons beyond well, none of us would get the nomination for much of anything here, ever, absent a few exceptions down the road maybe, but if he did, and well were of the right age and experience and all, based on temperament and ideology alone, he would have a lot of crossover appeal in a state where the Pubs in general are more interested in patronage than ideology anyway (gosh NY is a cynical state), and the Dem margin there would expand.

Columbia County, NY.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Kentucky Primaries Predictions and Results Thread on: May 19, 2015, 04:10:25 pm
Assuming all of the predictions above are not delusional, apparently the KY Pubs don't know, or don't care, that nominating anybody other than Heiner probably means the Dems hold the mansion. Whatever. Perhaps Conway is the best of the bunch for the job anyway.
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Say something nice about the 2016 Presidential Election board on: May 19, 2015, 04:07:09 pm
The Board is improving because the galaxy of Pub candidates, or pretend candidates, are providing such good material. In fact the gang is providing much better material than the dreary gang that we had running last time in the primary for POTUS nomination. The primary season may end being a Pub disaster, but it has a high probability for providing entertainment in the meantime.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will the Republican Nomination Battle Go to the Conventions on: May 19, 2015, 03:59:00 pm
Probably no, but it could if Rand Paul gets enough votes. His supporters, particularly if he is close, won't care about what others think it will do to the party, and for that matter, given his unique niche, a brawl might make him more electable in the General.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Flees Reporters on: May 19, 2015, 03:56:14 pm
These "so and so flees from reporters" stories are always stupid.

The headline was crafted by the progenitor of the thread, and not a copy and paste. Maybe the progenitor might make a good tabloid paper editor. Tongue

To be fair, once in awhile I juice things up a bit myself, particularly if the real headline conveys not much information, or is too long to fit into Dave's software.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie: 'You Can't Enjoy Your Civil Liberties If You're In A Coffin' on: May 19, 2015, 03:53:20 pm
Hey Christie, if you are going to sally into the delicate area of civil liberties versus the Constitution is not a suicide pact, you had better actually get into the details of where the balance is off a bit and needs to be corrected, as opposed to the blunderbuss way that you did it, which you know, kind of frightens people. Particularly since trust in government in evaluating the seriousness of such threats, is not very high. Folks have used and abused the barbarians are coming threat before to trash liberties in cynical manner, often to protect themselves from scrutiny. You know, maybe your problem is that you are on a perpetual sugar high.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 19, 2015, 02:39:17 pm
so if I'm understanding the chart right, the only party that attracted a meaningful number of new voters was UKIP? (As in, they have more people with + signs in their block than the sum of people that flowed to them from elsewhere)

The 3 excess plusses is explained by:

"The UKIP group of 13 voters includes three voters who previously voted for other minor parties such as the BNP in 2010, but these voters are not shown on the diagram."
18  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: More chatter about a Dem redraw of CD lines in CA if SCOTUS tanks AZ commission on: May 19, 2015, 12:50:06 pm
The Alabama SCOTUS case focused on racial gerrymandering to avoid a reduction in black percentages (retrogression under the now defunct Section 5) that were far in excess of 50% BVAP (the prime district in question was over 70% BVAP). I think it still good practice to try to hit 50% BVAP via racial gerrymandering if the black areas included within a CD are reasonably contiguous. The odds are very low any court would view that as racial gerrymandering for purposes of diluting black influence in other CD's. It is probably further reasonable to take into account population trends going out over 10 years that can be documented as likely to occur.
This is the North Carolina Supreme Court decision in Dickson v. Rucho.   The SCOTUS has just granted certiori, vacated the decision, and remanded the case back to the North Carolina Supreme Court, to try to apply the SCOTUS reason in the Alabama case.

There are 70% BVAP districts in Alabama, but these weren't really the ones at issue.  There are counties in the Black Belt that are 70% BVAP where you can draw whole county districts that are 70% BVAP.  In 2001 the Democratic-controlled legislature had deliberately underpopulated the BVAP districts.  This was done as part of political gerrymander.  In general, majority BVAP areas have poorer job prospects, so they lose population or don't gain as much.  They may also have an increase in BVAP% (18 YO whites go away to college, and then move to Birmingham, Atlanta, etc., and the older population dies off).

When the Republican-controlled legislature drew the districts they set a lower permitted deviation.  This meant that the existing VRA districts had to be expanded, not only to make up population, but for slower growth.  The legislature also maintained the existing BVAP of the districts.

And in the expansion, the lines did not follow other redistricting principles in order to keep the BVAP from dropping, which had been at a number far in excess of 50% BVAP, correct?  There was no district in play here where the figure was barely above 50% BVAP was there, that needed to be gerrymandered to keep it at that percentage was there?
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb paid Hillary on: May 19, 2015, 08:57:06 am
I doubt Jeb was involved in inviting Hillary, and the article does not suggest that he was.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Was Jeb Bush dropped on the head as a child? on: May 19, 2015, 08:17:19 am
This essay is rather cruel, but just because it's cruel does not necessarily mean it's unfair. Jeb's closest advisor on Mideast affairs is brother Dubya?  Really?
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Marco Rubio's baggage is coming crashing out of the closet on: May 19, 2015, 07:36:18 am
Rubio has always had money problems, and skated on rather thin ice in dealing with the squeeze. This is not the first example of something he's done that while maybe legal, may not pass the smell test.
22  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: More chatter about a Dem redraw of CD lines in CA if SCOTUS tanks AZ commission on: May 19, 2015, 07:25:42 am
The Alabama SCOTUS case focused on racial gerrymandering to avoid a reduction in black percentages (retrogression under the now defunct Section 5) that were far in excess of 50% BVAP (the prime district in question was over 70% BVAP). I think it still good practice to try to hit 50% BVAP via racial gerrymandering if the black areas included within a CD are reasonably contiguous. The odds are very low any court would view that as racial gerrymandering for purposes of diluting black influence in other CD's. It is probably further reasonable to take into account population trends going out over 10 years that can be documented as likely to occur.
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the 2016 Presidential Election Board on: May 18, 2015, 05:39:16 pm
Well having dropped into it, in a way I never did before, it's not that bad. Kids like to wrest some glimpse of the future out of the most limited data, and then argue that one speculation is better than another, and then do data dumps from the past and extrapolations thereof of varying degrees of salience and relevance, and on and on, because it isn't much fun to just chill and admit  that the biggest variable of all is future events that cannot really be predicted, and candidate resilience, that is based on rather limited impressions, at least with many of the candidates.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Predict the House Makeup After 2016 on: May 18, 2015, 05:18:07 pm
241R 194D

I'm a bit on the pessimistic side for a Democrat, ATM.

That's exactly my over-under number.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NH-1: FEC fines Guinta, admits to illegal loan from parents on: May 18, 2015, 05:17:10 pm
Guinta was civilly fined, and not facing a criminal charge, so I tend to doubt that he will resign, and he need not resign. But he needs to announce he will not run for re-election. His running again, if only to lose the primary, would further help the Dems in a seat they probably have about a 60% chance of winning anyway, all things being equal. I had this seat as one that I expected the Pubs to lose all things being equal, and now it's moving close to the top, right up there next to NV-04.
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