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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Gay marriage opponents' strategy uncertain in 2015 on: April 24, 2015, 08:17:35 pm
I don't mind your posts TJ, at all, on SSM, and appreciate them. But I am curious whether at this juncture, you have a secular, data based argument against SSM to which you honestly subscribe. Arguing theology qua theology when it comes to public policy is a dead end. It will persuade nobody but believers. But then you already knew that.

I do have some sympathy with allowing legal separation based on religious conscience of enmeshment with gay wedding ceremonies of those who are so inclined. They will be missing  a great party however. Smiley
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you rather live in Oklahoma or New Jersey? on: April 24, 2015, 06:05:21 pm
The state state where the garbage meets the sea, as my Commercial Transactions Law Prof so uncharitably described the state. He probably just saw the state from the Jersey Turnpike, with all those tank farms along the road. Smiley
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you have voted for the Iraq War? on: April 24, 2015, 06:03:05 pm
Regrettably probably yes. It would be a vote in hindsight that I would feel ashamed about. I like to think I would have demanded more answers, and what the plan was to avoid getting in the middle of a Sunni-Shia Civil War, but I suspect that is wishful thinking. As it was, I was enraged about the description of the national museum and so forth when Bagdad was taken. That and Bush's handling of Katrina soured me on my perception of his competence. He never really recovered from it  - to his day - just ask Jeb.
4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26 on: April 24, 2015, 05:20:42 pm
FTR, I'm with train that the community board boundaries are the most accepted, though one could also use the neighborhood tabulation areas as a smaller division, and are built from census areas consistent with the 55 PUMAs in NYC.

Anyway, Given Torie's work I thought I would post my estimates of how big a 2020 CD in the NYC area should appear using the DRA 2010 data. To get the number I use 780K as the 2020 CD quota, then assume uniform growth within the county. This is the average target number one goes for with 26 CD plan for a CD entirely in that county. For a CD that spans counties the DRA size would be the weighted average.

Bronx 714K
Kings 701K
Nassau 755K
New York 725K
Queens 710K
(Richmond 762K)
Suffolk 768K
Westchester 737K

For example the Staten Island CD in 2020 has 480K in Richmond and 300K in Kings (2020 population). Averaging (480*762+300*701)/780 = 739. So that CD should be about 739K in population as seen on DRA.


Mine is at 737,536, and the "perfect" number per my spreadsheet is 238,215, FWIW.
5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26 on: April 24, 2015, 05:11:59 pm
My Dad grew up in Flatbush, until age 12, and his parents both grew up there on Pacific Avenue, and were childhood sweethearts. Somewhere I have a photo of the house his parents bought, in a new subdivision in 1906, with the house mostly surrounded by fields. I am told the house is still standing. My dad went back and knocked on the door and got a tour sometime in the mid 1980's. I have never been to Flatbush. It's on my list, and I too will knock on the door. Smiley

Thanks for the apology. I appreciate it. Damn the DRA! I just used what was available. In Chicago, Muon2 and I use ward lines, which the DRA has, and they tend sometimes to be gerrymandered too, although not as grotesque typically as Mr. Silver's handiwork. One uses what is available. But with the DRA not using NYC neighborhoods, obviously they are cumbersome to hew to when drawing lines. One saving grace, is that the precinct lines sometimes tend to follow the hood lines more it seems in NYC, so that helps. I was able to draw pretty clean lines between NY-06 and NY-04, in lieu of the more erose ones. No partisan or change in the Asian percentage by doing so.

Train, this map has a clear Dem skew now (and probably considerably worse given the Dem trend since 2008. Oh, the horror, the horror!  NY-11 bounced up another 10 basis points Dem, when I checked my spreadsheet, and NY-11 needed to drop a precinct by the way. Smiley
6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26 on: April 24, 2015, 03:38:45 pm
the DRA utility shows ward numbers, so those are useable.  

GIGO.  They are profoundly not useable.  NYC doesn't use wards.  You want to go by the community boards instead:



I honestly have no idea what that numbering scheme in DRA is even referring to.  It's not any current lines, not CBs or City Council or anything like that.

EDIT: Oh, wait: it's based on the 2000-2010 Assembly districts.  I hope you can see why they shouldn't be used.  Explains why they're so awful.

OK. I take your word for it. But I certainly am not going to go through the bother of painstakingly comparing a map in my lap to the DRA map, while clicking a mouse. I suppose for this exercise, one just sticks to clean lines.

Just for kicks, I tried to approximate the neighborhood lines in the area of controversy. 80 basis points more Dem. I will use those lines, and use clean lines between NY-04 and NY-06 in Queens, since neighborhoods 3 and 4 need to be chopped anyway, given the VRA and where NY-06 needs to go. Happy now? Smiley No, of course not! You're insatiable. Tongue

7  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26 on: April 24, 2015, 03:01:55 pm
NY-06, the way I drew, is probably the most ethnically heterodox CD in the US:  32.4% WVAP, 24.7% AVAP, 23.6% HVAP, and 17.2% BVAP.  ☺ I wonder what it will be like in 2022.  Given the VRA, I suspect something like it will have to be drawn (well the map makers might not care about NY-04 making a traveling chop to the Bronx through Queens, and/or caring whether there is a bridge connection, but I digress).  I did try to draw NY-04 so that it took the entire southern tier of NY-06, and lost its northern Queens salient, so that NY-06 had a better shape, but the population numbers did not work.

Well, the current NY-6 is already 37% Asian (and rising!) and represented by Grace Meng.  I don't think people will take kindly to blowing that up.

Also, I didn't notice this before, but nice work chopping Borough Park to keep NY-11 Pub.  That was slick.  If you're going to draw that Southern Brooklyn Pub district, least you can do is keep all the Hasids together.

COI does not count (except for VRA considerations). I followed ward lines between NY-08 and NY-11. Prior to doing that, I made the line as straight as possible, but my protocol is that following ward lines takes precedence (unless the erosity by doing so becomes too grotesque), so the line became somewhat more jagged. In any event. there is no other place for NY-11 to reasonably go, other than into the NY-08 Pub zone. Finally, the PVI difference, whatever it does, is marginal.  You really don't trust my good faith in drawing these maps do you Train.  Sad

Well, which lines are you even using as "wards"?  Looks like it's certainly not the CB districts, which would be the best option (with the caveat that they are large enough that some splits would still be necessary).  They don't even match up with City Council districts or anythingĖ I'm now quite confused as to what it is you're working off of here.

And NY-11 would be better off taking the rest of Dyker Heights.  Yes, it's marginal, but it so obviously makes much more sense for both districts.

Below is a map showing the ward lines.  I see that I did chop four precincts out of Ward 49. Whether I just missed those, or decided to cheat a bit to reduce erosity, I donít remember. I probably just missed them. Itís erosity city there.  



If I put the four precincts in Ward 49 back into NY-08 where they belong, NY-11 moves 20 basis points to the Dems. My bad.



I originally had clean lines, ignoring ward lines.  That map below is 70 basis points more Dem.



You want to ignore ward lines, and try to move NY-11 into Bensonhurst (I see now you modified you post, and it's now Dyker Heights - whatever)? You canít get there (to Bensonhurst). But if you go in to direction per the below, it does not change the PVI from the clean line map.



You want to chop another ward rather than Ward 48? The only other candidate is Ward 49, and that means NY-11 has to take heavily Dem Sunset Park (otherwise the map will look insane).  The map below does that. Itís the most Pub of all, 20 basis points more Pub than the map I drew to which you took exception .



Well, I take that back. It's not so horrible. 90 basis points more Dem. But in comparing my map as corrected, and a map chopping Ward 49, I suspect most people would find my map less erose. Your mileage may vary. For some reason, what folks like best, tends to favor their political party oddly enough, however.



Anyway, I went through all this bother, because this is a good object lesson as to why one needs to have objective criteria, and the DRA utility shows ward numbers, so those are useable.  Without objective criteria, one is exposed even when acting in the best of faith, of gaming.  Folks donít like their motives being questioned. I certainly donít. It kind of angers me.  So I am going to stick to objective criteria.  Sure, one must pick the ward to chop, but I think the maps above clearly demonstrate that Ward 48 is the best one to chop. The only subjective issue remaining is whether to do more than one chop, where the lines get ludicrously erose. And that is possible in some parts of NYC, because clearly the ward lines have themselves been gerrymandered. But in most places, one can work with them.

8  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26 on: April 24, 2015, 12:26:12 pm
NY-06, the way I drew, is probably the most ethnically heterodox CD in the US:  32.4% WVAP, 24.7% AVAP, 23.6% HVAP, and 17.2% BVAP.  ☺ I wonder what it will be like in 2022.  Given the VRA, I suspect something like it will have to be drawn (well the map makers might not care about NY-04 making a traveling chop to the Bronx through Queens, and/or caring whether there is a bridge connection, but I digress).  I did try to draw NY-04 so that it took the entire southern tier of NY-06, and lost its northern Queens salient, so that NY-06 had a better shape, but the population numbers did not work.

Well, the current NY-6 is already 37% Asian (and rising!) and represented by Grace Meng.  I don't think people will take kindly to blowing that up.

Also, I didn't notice this before, but nice work chopping Borough Park to keep NY-11 Pub.  That was slick.  If you're going to draw that Southern Brooklyn Pub district, least you can do is keep all the Hasids together.

COI does not count (except for VRA considerations). I followed ward lines between NY-08 and NY-11. Prior to doing that, I made the line as straight as possible, but my protocol is that following ward lines takes precedence (unless the erosity by doing so becomes too grotesque), so the line became somewhat more jagged. In any event. there is no other place for NY-11 to reasonably go, other than into the NY-08 Pub zone. Finally, the PVI difference, whatever it does, is marginal.  You really don't trust my good faith in drawing these maps do you Train.  Sad
9  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26 on: April 24, 2015, 09:42:33 am
Here is the corrected map. NY-05 is at 50.0% BVAP. I found that it had about 5,000 too many people, and that allowed getting rid of a Nassau County chop.  I jiggled the lines in Westchester a little bit, to get rid of a town chop between NY-17 and NY-18.   FWIW, I drew the lines between NY-04 and NY-06 hewing to ward lines and minimize ward chops (unless too erose, but that did come not into play here because I found the degree of erosity tolerable), except I had to chop one precinct out of NY-04 to connect NY-06 to the Bronx, and then with respect to the other ward that was chopped, I tried to keep as much as possible the Asians in NY-06, unless the lines got too erose, in which event avoiding excessive erosity took precedence.   Nevertheless there was some division of the Asian population, with NY-04 20.1 % AVAP, and NY-06 24.7% AVAP.

NY-06, the way I drew, is probably the most ethnically heterodox CD in the US:  32.4% WVAP, 24.7% AVAP, 23.6% HVAP, and 17.2% BVAP.  ☺ I wonder what it will be like in 2022.  Given the VRA, I suspect something like it will have to be drawn (well the map makers might not care about NY-04 making a traveling chop to the Bronx through Queens, and/or caring whether there is a bridge connection, but I digress).  I did try to draw NY-04 so that it took the entire southern tier of NY-06, and lost its northern Queens salient, so that NY-06 had a better shape, but the population numbers did not work.

NY-03 is the green CD, and NY-02 is the brown CD by the way. That is the way they are currently numbered.



10  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Municipal Level Maps on: April 23, 2015, 02:52:03 pm
Some of those lines in some states are village lines, rather than city lines, and often precinct lines overlap village lines. Villages typically have quite limited government powers. Sometimes you can tell which are city lines, and which village lines, because the DRA utility will typically have a different number sequence between different cities, and different towns, identifying the respective precincts, but not for different villages. And then to make matters more complicated, often there are no lines between towns, or townships, and so one must look at the precinct number sequences, to find where the lines are. In Illinois, the town names are actually identified for each precinct, but in other states not. There is quite a learning curve here actually.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Gay marriage opponents' strategy uncertain in 2015 on: April 23, 2015, 02:03:08 pm
Their strategy should be like Hillary's: clean their computer disks of anything they ever wrote on SSM, and claim it was all just personal chit chat that was cleansed.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Meet the GOP's unconventional new star on: April 23, 2015, 12:47:56 pm
You're not a star when you win by 167 votes in a republican tidal wave election. Enough said.

Well.. to call 2014 a "tidal wave election" seems exaggerated. It was a great Republican election, but not a tidal wave by any means.

The largest GOP majority in the House since Coolidge was president, a nine seat gain in the Senate, the reelection of several unpopular incumbent governors as well as new Republican governors in several very liberal states. If that's not a "tidal wave" then you're just arguing pointless semantics about terminology

Mittens and McCain (yes, I know McCain was a favorite son), both carried AZ-02 in its current configuration, FWIW. In my view, Barber was a relatively strong incumbent - likable and moderate. Barber got in initially, because the Pub opponents were either terrible or lame.  Whatever, JMO.  I will revisit this thread after the next election. Tongue
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26 on: April 23, 2015, 11:59:39 am
Towns rule over villages. Cities and Towns have equal status. What did I do wrong in Westchester?  Is there a better way to do it? Something has to be chopped it appears to me.



In other news, my residual CD, that orphan child, NY-06, has too many people in it, and I canít figure out the source of the error. Help! Sad  Oh, NY-04 does not have enough people. Never mind. I will deal with that tomorrow.



The 3 black CDís are all a bit over 50% BVAP (well, NY-05 is 49.9%), my NY-12 has about 55.1% HVAP, NY-15 is at 62.4% HVAP, and NY-14 is at 54.2% HVAP.
14  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: 2012 White Obama Lovers Map by County Project - DE added on: April 23, 2015, 07:11:48 am
Incredible work. Thank you.
15  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Prince Edward Island vs Idaho on: April 23, 2015, 07:04:25 am
PEI is flat. Idaho isn't. Florida sucks. Enough said.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Meet the GOP's unconventional new star on: April 23, 2015, 07:01:22 am
The article focused more on what she has done since her election. Just a thought. Oh, and I will be quite surprised if she loses in 2016.

Why, because you like her or because you think that a positive article in The Hill will be enough to put her on top amid presidential turnout in a swing district?

Because of what she is saying and doing in the district. And no, voters will not become aware of that via reading The Hill article. But there are other information dissemination vehicles.  Smiley
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Brooklyn's population growth question on: April 23, 2015, 06:57:01 am
Following up on LVP's point, no borough has gained population from domestic migration over the past five years. By the same measure, the Census estimate for Brooklyn (-92k) only lags behind Manhattan (-487k).

Isn't that like 30% of Manhattan's population moving away and getting replaced? Seems incredibly high.

Young ambitious and/or dreamy kids move to the Big Apple after college or whatever, and then get hitched, can't cut it or afford it, or whatever, and move out? Hasn't that been happening since rocks cooled?  Anyway, it seems that half of the population of Hudson sometimes is from Manhattan (with Brooklyn now showing up on the radar screen).  I have yet to find anyone else from Orange County, CA living here however. Tongue
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Meet the GOP's unconventional new star on: April 22, 2015, 04:19:21 pm
The article focused more on what she has done since her election. Just a thought. Oh, and I will be quite surprised if she loses in 2016.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who do you want to be the next President? on: April 22, 2015, 04:16:14 pm
It's way to early for me to have an opinion on that.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: on election day 2004... on: April 22, 2015, 04:12:46 pm
Oh, I thought the odds were about 2-1 that Bush would win, just as I though at the end that the odds were about 2-1 that Obama 2012 would win (the doubt in 2012 being which turn out models were correct, and we found out which one was - Obama's!). The Obama margin was surprisingly large however due to the unexpected fall off in the white working class, lower/lower middle class vote.
21  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of cheerleaders on: April 22, 2015, 03:55:01 pm
My opinion is different depending on their gender. Thank you.
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Joe Republic Bureau of Funny Post Archival on: April 22, 2015, 03:50:19 pm
I typed that? Oh my. But hey, now that it is preserved for the ages, I guess I will leave it alone.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does anyone on this forum doubt Ted Cruz's intelligence? on: April 22, 2015, 03:46:09 pm
Newt Gingrich is pretty smart too. Next question!
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why Fiorina/rubio is the best ticket for the GOP on: April 22, 2015, 03:45:00 pm
Maybe it is just me, but I find Fiorina singularly unimpressive as a Senate candidate. She basically said nothing of interest, and there was no raison d'Ítre to her candidacy. She is one of those pelicans, like most of them, who is around to be somebody, rather than become a change agent to push public policy issues that need pushing, that are not being given enough attention, or are being mishandled. That is why most politicians flunk my little test when I ask them what issue they really care about, that they will focus on, and what will they do, that has not been done, to creatively move the ball on it. Most just give me a blank stare, and then filibuster with BS. Sad.
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Brooklyn's population growth question on: April 22, 2015, 03:20:24 pm
Torie, why not drop this turd on muon2's board instead of here?

Because I wanted it to be noticed, because I was soliciting help, which I have received. Thanks guys - all quite fascinating. I appreciate it. One purpose for the FC is for "help me" threads. But if you don't like it, Grumps, report it.  You need to find a new hobby around here, other than Gully, Bushie, and Torie bashing, perhaps. Just a thought. Yes, I know what you will do with that little suggestion of mine.  I love you too. Tongue
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