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1  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 24, 2014, 09:04:04 pm
Oh, as the Firemens' Home, sure a couple of bedrooms might be split. Flip a coin.

I understand that the weights can be fixed as best they can (probably still not legal for complex issues but yes, as best they can, hiring a consultant at some expense to do it all). But that just affects Council Vote weights, not voters voting. So unless the wrong weights affect a Council vote outcome, they are irrelevant. I doubt that they will ever be relevant in the next year given the local politics. Sure if the referendum fails (yes, not necessary for changing the weights, but apparently necessary for changing the lines, and therein is the rub), the weights will need to be corrected ASAP. If not, the system will become even more legally vulnerable, and the city would be risking that the court will not bother with just ordering a narrow fix, and not interested given the attitude in struggling to find the system, and the assumption that aldermen from the same ward vote randomly vis a vis each other is tolerable, or otherwise not caring about the Banzhaf issue, considering it legally dead (it isn't, it just isn't a panacea anymore); rather the court would just throw up its hands,  just toss the whole thing out. So it may become potentially relevant, but not now in my view. The city can't afford to spend money on this, and should not.
2  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 24, 2014, 08:52:09 pm
If there were a unit count for Tradewinds inside and Tradewinds outside the loop, we could estimate the Tradewinds population outside the loop, and subtract that from the 200 persons in 12-1012.   Then the Ward 4/Ward 5 split of the remainder could be estimated based on number of houses.
Is the 70 units for Tradewinds in the newspaper article gospel?

If so, there are 27 units in 12-1011 (per census), and 43 in 12-1012.   We can project from 59 persons in 12-1011 to get a population outside the loop.  27:43 :: 59:94.

This would give 200 - 94 = 106 persons elsewhere in 12-1011.

The housing split between Wards 4 and 5 is 25.5:12.5, which would put about 70 persons in Ward 4.

The 4th ward part of 12-1012 has about 27 units, and if the number of Crosswinds units in 12-1012 is 43 units, that totals to 70 units. How many units are in 12-1012 per the census, and could you link to me that data?

Anyway, 27/70 = 38.57%, and 38.57% of 106 = 41 persons in Ward 4's portion of 12-1012.
89 in 12-1012.   If we subtract the 43 units in Crosswinds, that leaves 46.   I count about 38.   I would think that the most likely to be multi-family would be some in the pseudo-block.   The houses on the south side of Harry Howard are fairly small, and those along Clinton aren't particularly large.

46/89 = 51.69%. 51.69% x 106 = 54.78.  So is that the number we are back to?
3  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 24, 2014, 06:02:54 pm
As to who knew what when, that is something I am trying to avoid exploring. I think I have an idea based on various chats.   What is important is fixing it all. Look to the future, not trawling the past. That serves no useful purpose, and in the end, none of it was done really with some evil political agenda in mind (I suspect the bisecting of the new location of the Firemens' home in particular freaked some folks out that were involved). This issue will most probably be going to referendum (I already drew what I think is a sensible map), and if that fails, litigation. There is no going back. The genie is out of the bottle, in substantial part to yes, you Jim, you trouble maker you.  Smiley

Oh, yes, Crosswinds does indeed have 70 apartments.
4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 24, 2014, 08:18:02 am
If there were a unit count for Tradewinds inside and Tradewinds outside the loop, we could estimate the Tradewinds population outside the loop, and subtract that from the 200 persons in 12-1012.   Then the Ward 4/Ward 5 split of the remainder could be estimated based on number of houses.
Is the 70 units for Tradewinds in the newspaper article gospel?

If so, there are 27 units in 12-1011 (per census), and 43 in 12-1012.   We can project from 59 persons in 12-1011 to get a population outside the loop.  27:43 :: 59:94.

This would give 200 - 94 = 106 persons elsewhere in 12-1011.

The housing split between Wards 4 and 5 is 25.5:12.5, which would put about 70 persons in Ward 4.

The 4th ward part of 12-1012 has about 27 units, and if the number of Crosswinds units in 12-1012 is 43 units, that totals to 70 units. How many units are in 12-1012 per the census, and could you link to me that data?

Anyway, 27/70 = 38.57%, and 38.57% of 106 = 41 persons in Ward 4's portion of 12-1012.
5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 24, 2014, 07:51:51 am
Boundary lines can only be changed by referendum. The city is "trapped" for the moment vis a vis the next election with the ward lines specified by the charter.

I am going to use the lower figure for the Mill Street area of 28 since we really don't know the vacancy rate of the Mill St. houses. I know one is red tagged and another has been vacant for some time. Most of the old houses are just within the flood plain.

I think I will attach your post which gets to 70 rather than 55 for the split block between the 4th and 5th wards.  The actual numbers are not too critical, since it really does not make much sense to jigger the weighted vote numbers before the next election, at substantial expense. The odds that re-doing them will actually change how a council vote comes out are extremely low, given the current political climate.

The city attorney has been charged with writing a legal opinion on the legality of the weighted vote, and I will be, and other legal players are in the wings. It is all happening now rather rapidly. You see how much trouble you've caused Jim?  Tongue
6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 23, 2014, 07:43:57 pm
OK I will use the midpoint between 28 and 38, or 33 for the 2nd ward's share of the Great Northern block. Actually I will not, but reference that in the cover letter. It is too difficult to rescan everything. 32 is close enough. The building at the corner of Robinson and 3rd is a school building, now owed by two gay lawyers, from the city, who rent it out to artists, and the auditorium for artistic and sometimes political events. (It is kind of nice for Dan and I to walk half a block to partake of it all, and invite folks we meet there over to our pad.) It is not, and never has been, residential.

The Firemens' Home has to be split, to get folks voting in the right ward in the next election. The population exercise as to it (or anything else for that matter) I doubt will happen unless 1) a referendum almost certain to be on the ballot next year doing away with all of this fails, 2) the probably ensuing lawsuit does not toss out the system (e.g., because the court rejects the idea that alderman voting randomly vis a vis each other is unreasonable to assume), but the court does order the narrower remedy of getting the populations right, along with legal weighted voting methodology,  In the event all of that happens, then the population exercise I think will become relevant from a legal standpoint. I view it as highly unlikely that all of the above described condition precedents will be met.

Oh, by the way, is the 85 number for nursing home living that you attribute to the Firemens' Home a census number from 2010? I ask, because the current population is 72. If it is from the census, where is the place that I can document that?

All the Harry Howard addresses on the east side of the street up to a bit north of the two houses that I depicted, vote in the 4th Ward, even though they should not along part of it under either the ordinance ward boundary language or even the map. It turns out that there are but two houses outside the Crosswinds Apartments to which this applies.
7  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 23, 2014, 02:00:02 pm
Fantastic work Jim.  Thank  you so much. With your permission, I would like to attach as an exhibit to my next letter the pages of yours above starting with the old aerial of the Firemens’ Home. Is that OK? If so, should I use the screen name “Jimtex” or your real name when referencing your authorship?

That leaves us with just a few loose ends to tie up.





While the allocation of 19 persons to Ward 1 in the “Great Northern” census block used for the 2001 population calculations may have been reasonable for the 9 housing units located in the Mill Street area for the 2001 census count (the 44 figure that you derived from the ward census count in 2001 certainly would not be), it seems unlikely that the 19 figure would be a reasonable estimate for 2011, when there were 14 structures (with the 5 new ones having a fair number of children living in them (yes, they are some sort of subsidized housing).  The 32 figure which is on your map for the 2011 population count would seem more appropriate.  Where exactly did that figure come from again, along with the 292-73 split for the Front Street block (yes, I know you allocated yourself I think the 3 prisoners who were assigned to that census block)?



I accept your estimate of 55 for the "pseudo" block-Clinton Street-“east” of Howard Way, between that street and the pond area. I count 27 structures in that area, so it is a reasonable enough figure for now to use as an estimate.  That along with the transfer of the Columbia triangle to Ward 5 and the readjustment of the population allocations to the wards involved of the Front Street and Great Northern census blocks just about wraps up the population transfers (other than that I am going to use a population allocation of the Front Street block between wards 1 and 2 based on the relative apartment count, at least until such time as I know where the slightly different figures used in 2001 came from (if based on a bedroom count, than yes that would be superior, but if based on some actual headcount at the time, then it would not be) except for one thing.



While the Firemens’ Home was not bisected in 2001 by the 4th – 5th ward boundary, it is now. One structure was torn down, and two new ones built that are bisected it appears. So a survey will need to be done to those structures, and a population transfer made from the 4th ward to the 5th ward. I am told that its current population is 72, and was about the same in 2010, so an equal split of the 72 residents, would involve a transfer of 36 residents from the 4th ward to the 5th ward, both for population purposes and as voters.

 

Finally, the residents of the Crosswinds Apartments and the residents of two houses along Howard Way need to stop voting in the 4th ward as they are currently doing, and start voting in the 5th ward, along with their fellow Hudsonians living in the Columbia Triangle who are currently voting in the 3rd ward.  

So my population chart now looks as follows.  Let me know if you have any further comments. Thanks again Jim. I very much appreciate your efforts here. You have been utterly magnificent, and without you, much of this may have never been appropriately resolved. Now I am confident that it will be.






8  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 22, 2014, 10:31:33 pm
That is all fascinating and important, and will find its way to where it should go in due course, but as to my question?

Tonight, the legal committee of the Common Council decided to do a survey to determine the precise boundary between the 4th and 5th ward boundary vis a vis the extrapolation north of 5th St per the charter language. So there you go. You are making difference Jim, and real difference, with me as the messenger. I need to move on the 3rd-5th ward triangle thing, too, at this point, if based on fact. I think I figured out why it all happened, but that is just embroidery for this exercise.
9  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 22, 2014, 09:15:07 am
How exactly does the confusion about the boundary between 3 and 5 generate a population error?

Oh, is it the issue that I marked out below with respect to the Columbia Turnpike versus Columbia St. issue?



In other news, I got some press about all of this. Attached to my letter were a lot of maps. Imagine that?  Tongue
10  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Is there a list of Mods along with their tenure anywhere? on: October 20, 2014, 06:50:15 pm
If a Mod perceives that he or she has become more of the problem than the solution, or loses enthusiasm or time for the job, than retirement is in order. Most Mods here I think get good marks from a substantial majority of the Forum. For that, we should count ourselves blessed. And who in their right mind would really want Morden to retire, as long as he keeps his game up? Than would be nutter really.
11  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinon of the Previos Poster on: October 20, 2014, 06:14:28 pm
FF. But be yourself, be kind, be self confident, be honest, admit your mistakes and seek to learn and be curious, and you will be less insecure and unhappy. Life is a grand adventure of learning and joy, if managed wisely - easier said than done of course, based on my own misadventures, many misadventures.
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is KCDem a sock of krazen? on: October 20, 2014, 05:29:56 pm
One problem with this thesis, is that the socking is asymmetrical. Beyond the krazen penchant to generate the Ann Coulter type of buzz from just being in your face, there is some substance there in between the seams of streams of uric acid. KCDem is the null set - there is nothing there at all. Unless of course, that is well, yet another embodiment of the performance art - the asymmetry itself.
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Attention Whoring: Seeking advice regarding depression/meds on: October 20, 2014, 05:23:07 pm
You working out? If not, try it, and try it hard, no matter how depressed you are prior to commencing. That might be your best therapy. I mean that.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-Gravis: Tillis (R) up 5. on: October 20, 2014, 02:48:00 pm
Dominating.

I was going to post that, just to pay homage to your meme, but of course, you got in first. Smiley
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NH: Suffolk: Shaheen +3 on: October 20, 2014, 02:46:44 pm
Pursuant to some statistical mumbo-jumbo, if the incumbent hits 47%, it's generally a tossup race. So two points to go!  Smiley
16  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 20, 2014, 08:20:08 am
Census Tract 12, Block Group 4



Jimtex, unless I am missing something, exclusive of the Front St block misallocation and perhaps what you call the Great Northern block allocation (not sure where you got the 32 number in that block that goes in Ward 2 (which is what I used in my chart), per you map earlier on in the thread), pursuant to the ward map being different than what the charter specifies, based on your chart in Reply # 107 above, the only population errors arising from that error appear to be that the 20 persons in block 4000, plus whatever number of persons lived in the houses depicted in the aerial below in block 1012 along Harry Howard Ave., need to be deducted from the 2,485 population of Ward 5 and added to Ward 4. Do you agree?



I am confused by your discussion about the Columbia Turnpike bit, since the map you drew seems to comport with what the charter specifies, so there is no population error involved given that the map is accurate. What am I missing there?

In other news, I am told that the  folks in block 1011 (the Crosswinds Apartments, population 59), vote in Ward 4 rather than Ward 5 for some reason, which would be yet another error. Fun stuff isn't it?


17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What is your walkscore? on: October 19, 2014, 02:30:38 pm
73
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WaPo's "Election Lab 2014" Senate Ratings on: October 19, 2014, 12:17:40 pm
Because  its metrics weight current poll numbers less, and underlying fundamentals more. In other words, the model "predicts" where the polls will end up rather than the current numbers, more than other forecasters do.
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should opebo have his own Jon Stewart/John Oliver style show? on: October 19, 2014, 12:08:23 pm
The repertoire would be quite limited (e.g., Thailand, prostitutes, guillotines, certain culinary delights, monarchical Marxism, old clunky cars, errant election forecasting), so the show would become very repetitive.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you consider yourself morally superior to the average Atlas poster? on: October 19, 2014, 12:03:09 pm
Anyone who was so self deluded, and/or would deem it reasonable to respond to such a problematical question fraught among other things with definitional issues, would be a fool to admit it in public.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 18, 2014, 11:11:12 am
LOL! Well done Bedstuy.  I have a little feeling in my gut that I might have been "owned" on this one.

Yeah, you got brutally owned. You should do more research next time, son.

Yes, twist the knife, and then twist it some more. Thanks.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 18, 2014, 10:52:35 am
LOL! Well done Bedstuy.  I have a little feeling in my gut that I might have been "owned" on this one. Oh well, I don't have the time or motivation to try to rehabilitate her here. So I will just accept my "spanking,"  and move on to more favorable venues. Cheers.
23  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which Presidents would you most want to go drinking with? on: October 18, 2014, 09:07:05 am
This one is easy. Bill Clinton. Nobody else comes close.
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of wormyguy on: October 18, 2014, 09:04:58 am
Tedious.
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Did you like going through a car wash as a kid? on: October 18, 2014, 07:36:41 am
Yes, and it was fabulous - better than a ride at Disneyland.
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