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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Sabato: Calling the House Tossups on: October 30, 2014, 05:48:03 pm
According to Sabato, it looks like R+6 or so, which I can live with.

Isn't it plus 9 Pub?  Anyway, I'm sticking with R+12, as a wild guess, and that is what all of us are doing at the margins, just making wild guesses. Nobody really knows.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Sabato: Calling the House Tossups on: October 30, 2014, 11:01:56 am
What is by far the most probable, is that at least 10 of Sabato's calls are wrong. Smiley

One call I think is wrong is NY-18. I think it will go Pub, and NY-24 is now a true toss up. The Dems are headed towards a pretty terrible election night in NY. The Dems are listless and demoralized. Meanwhile, interesting things are happening in CA, including a sudden money dump by the Dems into CA-24, a seat that has all along not really been considered at risk.
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How many times has jmfcst returned as a sock account? on: October 29, 2014, 06:25:41 pm
As one who worked the system to try to save jmfcst, and yes, the only one whom I think played defense for him effectively, he was banned because he wanted to be banned, as he himself said - as a martyr, screw the terms of use in his mind - martyrdom was the thing - a veritable religious experience perhaps. And then has has socked, and socked, and socked. He is not coming back. The end.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-19: TWC News/Siena: Gibson (R) +23 on: October 29, 2014, 12:17:57 pm
I live in the district and while I expect a decisive Gibson win, I'm kind of surprised that it hasn't closed up at least a bit more than this. For what it's worth (probably not much) Eldridge put out an internal where he was only down 10% recently. I didn't bother posting it here though.

This makes me curious about NY-18. I really hope Nan Hayworth isn't in the lead now...

And yes, Hawkins is going to absolutely kill it up here. There's very little love for Cuomo in these parts.

The Dem turnout in this part of NY will be anemic this year. I think the odds are good that Hayworth will win.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY 18: Global Strategy Group (D): Maloney leading on: October 29, 2014, 12:15:41 pm
Yeah, this one is going to be close. Maloney has a slight edge though. I kind of wish I was voting in this district instead of NY-19.

Met Sean Eldridge and his billionaire husband Chris, with whom I sat. Nice guy, and both are gorgeous. Sean has developed a good stump speech, well crafted, but is still superficial on the issues, and when I asked him what issue he really cared about, and would focus on if elected, where there was an unmet need (warning him that I always asked that kind of questions, and most politicians did not do well with it), he said campaign finance reform. I said well the Supreme Court has taken that out of the hands of Congress, so you can't do anything with that. Anything else?  He then said tax incentives for small business, but was vague. I said, oh you would be some techocrat type, focuses on the lucunae of the tax code. So anyway, you can see at the moment, he is more of a talking points kind of guy. But if he puts roots down in the community, and the Dems have a good year in 2016, when the electorate is more Democratic, and Gibson casts some more tough votes, he might be in the hunt. This year he will lose by a 10 to 15 point margin.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY 18: Global Strategy Group (D): Maloney leading on: October 29, 2014, 09:26:33 am
Things don't look good for the Dems in NY. They run the risk of losing 4 congressional seats in NY: NY-01, NY-18, NY-21, and yes, now NY-24.
7  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 28, 2014, 04:49:09 pm
Thanks Jim. Again, I, and all of the citizens of Hudson,  are very much in your debt.
8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Ambulance chaser goes multi-state on: October 28, 2014, 04:37:08 pm

disclose my criminal record, including traffic tickets, my DUI and pot bust
It's a good thing for you that you're not a poor. You'd be locked in some squalid for profit prison until the day you assume room temperature.

Putting aside the hyperbole, yes the justice systems favors those who can defend themselves with skill, to mitigate all the unpleasantness. Who knew?  Believe it or not, I will be using my new license to help balance the scales a bit. I will be mostly doing pro bono work, to help Hudson, and yes, to help the poor, with whom I now live, up close and in person, right next door and on the block and across the street, whose company I enjoy. One great thing about living in a small town, is with some effort, it is so much easier to get beyond the superficial facades, and relate to folks as individuals, one person at a time, and transcend the class and race and political barriers - all of them. I just love the challenge, and if I run for office some day, goal one will be carry the housing projects - as a Republican. I just love challenges. Wish me luck Memphis, won't you?  Smiley
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Ambulance chaser goes multi-state on: October 28, 2014, 01:52:47 pm
How big of a deal is the MPRE?

It is a minor affair. I will review my BARBEI bar review materials on it on Friday, and take the test in Albany on Saturday. And then I do 50 hours of pro bono work under the supervision of a licensed NY attorney, disclose my criminal record, including traffic tickets, my DUI and pot bust, over the past 10 years, get good character letters from 3 folks that have worked with me professionally, go through a personal interview, pay bar admission fees, and then voila, I have a NY license to practice law!  I anticipate getting through all of this by next Spring.
10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Ambulance chaser goes multi-state on: October 28, 2014, 10:31:23 am


Not bad for an old fart going in 12 directions at once, who has over the decades killed off the bulk of his brain cells savoring the better things in life. Smiley
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Steve King: "I don’t expect to meet [gays] should I make it to heaven." on: October 26, 2014, 08:18:41 am
Who in their right mind would want to be in the same place as Steve King?
12  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: October 2014 General Election - President and Regional Senators on: October 26, 2014, 08:05:24 am
[ 4 ] Al Sibboleth of West Virginia and Hashemite of Oklahoma
All Atlasia Progressive Rashtriya Janata Dal - Verenigde Gesuiwerde Atlasianer Volksfront

[ 3 ] Lumine von Reuental of Utah and SJoyceFla of North Carolina
Federalist Party - The People's Party

[ 1 ] Marokai Blue of Iowa and Antonio V of Hawaii
Labor Party

[ 2 ] Poirot of New York and Shua of Nunavut
Independent - Democratic-Republican Party
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 25, 2014, 02:45:05 pm
Yes, if someone files a lawsuit, the weights would have to be changed pending the next election (which will take a lot of time and some money (they won't just accept your numbers), resulting very probably in no change in any council vote outcome. That won't happen. It's all sound and fury signifying nothing. And if the Firemens' Home is not split, and there is a close election, because the nursing home folks (some of them), voted in the wrong ward, then there will be a lawsuit. Yes, if the lines could be changed without referendum, they should be, but alas the Council on its own cannot change them. Again, on this matter, the city is trapped. What needs to be done is get all of this on the ballot for the next election, probably via the petition route. Then everything can be fixed.  Stay tuned.
The Common Council has an affirmative obligation to follow the city charter, state law, and US Constitution.

The current plan violates the New York Municipal Home Law.

"i.)  The  plan  shall  provide substantially equal weight for all the voters of that local government in the allocation of  representation  in  the local legislative body."

"(c.)  As  used  in  this subparagraph the term "population" shall mean
  residents, citizens, or registered voters. A population base for such  a
  plan  of  apportionment shall utilize the latest statistical information
  obtainable from an official enumeration done at the same  time  for  all
  the  residents,  citizens, or registered voters of the local government.
  Such a plan may allocate, by extrapolation or any other rational method,
  such latest statistical information to representation areas or units  of
  local  government, provided that any plan containing such an allocation
  shall have annexed thereto as an appendix, a detailed explanation of the
  allocation.
"

The Common Council will avoid any lawsuit about the Firemen's Home by declaring that for electoral purposes that it is entirely west of the projected ward boundary.

Do any current registrations for the residents of the Firemen's Home contain a room number?

You have studiously avoided the issue of the two houses on Clinton, that are north of the end of 5th Street.  Or are you still trying to determine which point in these houses that the inhabitants reside in?  Remember, that you have to provide both a current location, and a location on April 1, 2010.   If a resident of a split house were to be elected alderman, would he have to resign whenever he eats in the kitchen.   Are you going to dock his salary whenever he goes to the bathroom in another ward within his house?

Torie's standard is arbitrary and capricious and denies equal protection to the residents of the Firemen's Home and the two houses on Clinton.  It also is in violation of the 26th Amendment.

The City of Hudson may resolve ambiguity in the charter by passing a resolution.   It does not change the ward boundaries by declaring that the Firemen's Home is west of the boundary.

Should I send my spreadsheet with the revised voting weights to you or to the city directly?

The two houses for addresses in the 400's on the north side of Clinton St were counted by me.

I don't understand how the Council can waive a wand and declare that all for the Fireman's home is in one ward or the other without changing the boundary itself, which it cannot except by referendum. Sometimes a line will split a home or here, we have a room or two or three perhaps so split. The court will be fine with putting its denizens therein assigned to vote, and be counted, in one zone or the other. The effect is de minimus. Stuff happens.
14  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 25, 2014, 10:28:57 am
The red roof structure isn't a house.
15  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 25, 2014, 08:47:25 am
In the 4th ward's portion of block 12-1012 (that is the block number on the spreadsheet that you sent me), there are 29 units. 29/46 x 103 = 64.93.  29/89 x 200 = 65.17.  65 is the number. We are done. It's been fun. Smiley

16  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 25, 2014, 07:30:56 am
Yes, if someone files a lawsuit, the weights would have to be changed pending the next election (which will take a lot of time and some money (they won't just accept your numbers), resulting very probably in no change in any council vote outcome. That won't happen. It's all sound and fury signifying nothing. And if the Firemens' Home is not split, and there is a close election, because the nursing home folks (some of them), voted in the wrong ward, then there will be a lawsuit. Yes, if the lines could be changed without referendum, they should be, but alas the Council on its own cannot change them. Again, on this matter, the city is trapped. What needs to be done is get all of this on the ballot for the next election, probably via the petition route. Then everything can be fixed.  Stay tuned.
17  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 24, 2014, 09:04:04 pm
Oh, as the Firemens' Home, sure a couple of bedrooms might be split. Flip a coin.

I understand that the weights can be fixed as best they can (probably still not legal for complex issues but yes, as best they can, hiring a consultant at some expense to do it all). But that just affects Council Vote weights, not voters voting. So unless the wrong weights affect a Council vote outcome, they are irrelevant. I doubt that they will ever be relevant in the next year given the local politics. Sure if the referendum fails (yes, not necessary for changing the weights, but apparently necessary for changing the lines, and therein is the rub), the weights will need to be corrected ASAP. If not, the system will become even more legally vulnerable, and the city would be risking that the court will not bother with just ordering a narrow fix, and not interested given the attitude in struggling to find the system, and the assumption that aldermen from the same ward vote randomly vis a vis each other is tolerable, or otherwise not caring about the Banzhaf issue, considering it legally dead (it isn't, it just isn't a panacea anymore); rather the court would just throw up its hands,  just toss the whole thing out. So it may become potentially relevant, but not now in my view. The city can't afford to spend money on this, and should not.
18  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 24, 2014, 08:52:09 pm
If there were a unit count for Tradewinds inside and Tradewinds outside the loop, we could estimate the Tradewinds population outside the loop, and subtract that from the 200 persons in 12-1012.   Then the Ward 4/Ward 5 split of the remainder could be estimated based on number of houses.
Is the 70 units for Tradewinds in the newspaper article gospel?

If so, there are 27 units in 12-1011 (per census), and 43 in 12-1012.   We can project from 59 persons in 12-1011 to get a population outside the loop.  27:43 :: 59:94.

This would give 200 - 94 = 106 persons elsewhere in 12-1011.

The housing split between Wards 4 and 5 is 25.5:12.5, which would put about 70 persons in Ward 4.

The 4th ward part of 12-1012 has about 27 units, and if the number of Crosswinds units in 12-1012 is 43 units, that totals to 70 units. How many units are in 12-1012 per the census, and could you link to me that data?

Anyway, 27/70 = 38.57%, and 38.57% of 106 = 41 persons in Ward 4's portion of 12-1012.
89 in 12-1012.   If we subtract the 43 units in Crosswinds, that leaves 46.   I count about 38.   I would think that the most likely to be multi-family would be some in the pseudo-block.   The houses on the south side of Harry Howard are fairly small, and those along Clinton aren't particularly large.

46/89 = 51.69%. 51.69% x 106 = 54.78.  So is that the number we are back to?
19  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 24, 2014, 06:02:54 pm
As to who knew what when, that is something I am trying to avoid exploring. I think I have an idea based on various chats.   What is important is fixing it all. Look to the future, not trawling the past. That serves no useful purpose, and in the end, none of it was done really with some evil political agenda in mind (I suspect the bisecting of the new location of the Firemens' home in particular freaked some folks out that were involved). This issue will most probably be going to referendum (I already drew what I think is a sensible map), and if that fails, litigation. There is no going back. The genie is out of the bottle, in substantial part to yes, you Jim, you trouble maker you.  Smiley

Oh, yes, Crosswinds does indeed have 70 apartments.
20  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 24, 2014, 08:18:02 am
If there were a unit count for Tradewinds inside and Tradewinds outside the loop, we could estimate the Tradewinds population outside the loop, and subtract that from the 200 persons in 12-1012.   Then the Ward 4/Ward 5 split of the remainder could be estimated based on number of houses.
Is the 70 units for Tradewinds in the newspaper article gospel?

If so, there are 27 units in 12-1011 (per census), and 43 in 12-1012.   We can project from 59 persons in 12-1011 to get a population outside the loop.  27:43 :: 59:94.

This would give 200 - 94 = 106 persons elsewhere in 12-1011.

The housing split between Wards 4 and 5 is 25.5:12.5, which would put about 70 persons in Ward 4.

The 4th ward part of 12-1012 has about 27 units, and if the number of Crosswinds units in 12-1012 is 43 units, that totals to 70 units. How many units are in 12-1012 per the census, and could you link to me that data?

Anyway, 27/70 = 38.57%, and 38.57% of 106 = 41 persons in Ward 4's portion of 12-1012.
21  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 24, 2014, 07:51:51 am
Boundary lines can only be changed by referendum. The city is "trapped" for the moment vis a vis the next election with the ward lines specified by the charter.

I am going to use the lower figure for the Mill Street area of 28 since we really don't know the vacancy rate of the Mill St. houses. I know one is red tagged and another has been vacant for some time. Most of the old houses are just within the flood plain.

I think I will attach your post which gets to 70 rather than 55 for the split block between the 4th and 5th wards.  The actual numbers are not too critical, since it really does not make much sense to jigger the weighted vote numbers before the next election, at substantial expense. The odds that re-doing them will actually change how a council vote comes out are extremely low, given the current political climate.

The city attorney has been charged with writing a legal opinion on the legality of the weighted vote, and I will be, and other legal players are in the wings. It is all happening now rather rapidly. You see how much trouble you've caused Jim?  Tongue
22  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 23, 2014, 07:43:57 pm
OK I will use the midpoint between 28 and 38, or 33 for the 2nd ward's share of the Great Northern block. Actually I will not, but reference that in the cover letter. It is too difficult to rescan everything. 32 is close enough. The building at the corner of Robinson and 3rd is a school building, now owed by two gay lawyers, from the city, who rent it out to artists, and the auditorium for artistic and sometimes political events. (It is kind of nice for Dan and I to walk half a block to partake of it all, and invite folks we meet there over to our pad.) It is not, and never has been, residential.

The Firemens' Home has to be split, to get folks voting in the right ward in the next election. The population exercise as to it (or anything else for that matter) I doubt will happen unless 1) a referendum almost certain to be on the ballot next year doing away with all of this fails, 2) the probably ensuing lawsuit does not toss out the system (e.g., because the court rejects the idea that alderman voting randomly vis a vis each other is unreasonable to assume), but the court does order the narrower remedy of getting the populations right, along with legal weighted voting methodology,  In the event all of that happens, then the population exercise I think will become relevant from a legal standpoint. I view it as highly unlikely that all of the above described condition precedents will be met.

Oh, by the way, is the 85 number for nursing home living that you attribute to the Firemens' Home a census number from 2010? I ask, because the current population is 72. If it is from the census, where is the place that I can document that?

All the Harry Howard addresses on the east side of the street up to a bit north of the two houses that I depicted, vote in the 4th Ward, even though they should not along part of it under either the ordinance ward boundary language or even the map. It turns out that there are but two houses outside the Crosswinds Apartments to which this applies.
23  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 23, 2014, 02:00:02 pm
Fantastic work Jim.  Thank  you so much. With your permission, I would like to attach as an exhibit to my next letter the pages of yours above starting with the old aerial of the Firemens’ Home. Is that OK? If so, should I use the screen name “Jimtex” or your real name when referencing your authorship?

That leaves us with just a few loose ends to tie up.





While the allocation of 19 persons to Ward 1 in the “Great Northern” census block used for the 2001 population calculations may have been reasonable for the 9 housing units located in the Mill Street area for the 2001 census count (the 44 figure that you derived from the ward census count in 2001 certainly would not be), it seems unlikely that the 19 figure would be a reasonable estimate for 2011, when there were 14 structures (with the 5 new ones having a fair number of children living in them (yes, they are some sort of subsidized housing).  The 32 figure which is on your map for the 2011 population count would seem more appropriate.  Where exactly did that figure come from again, along with the 292-73 split for the Front Street block (yes, I know you allocated yourself I think the 3 prisoners who were assigned to that census block)?



I accept your estimate of 55 for the "pseudo" block-Clinton Street-“east” of Howard Way, between that street and the pond area. I count 27 structures in that area, so it is a reasonable enough figure for now to use as an estimate.  That along with the transfer of the Columbia triangle to Ward 5 and the readjustment of the population allocations to the wards involved of the Front Street and Great Northern census blocks just about wraps up the population transfers (other than that I am going to use a population allocation of the Front Street block between wards 1 and 2 based on the relative apartment count, at least until such time as I know where the slightly different figures used in 2001 came from (if based on a bedroom count, than yes that would be superior, but if based on some actual headcount at the time, then it would not be) except for one thing.



While the Firemens’ Home was not bisected in 2001 by the 4th – 5th ward boundary, it is now. One structure was torn down, and two new ones built that are bisected it appears. So a survey will need to be done to those structures, and a population transfer made from the 4th ward to the 5th ward. I am told that its current population is 72, and was about the same in 2010, so an equal split of the 72 residents, would involve a transfer of 36 residents from the 4th ward to the 5th ward, both for population purposes and as voters.

 

Finally, the residents of the Crosswinds Apartments and the residents of two houses along Howard Way need to stop voting in the 4th ward as they are currently doing, and start voting in the 5th ward, along with their fellow Hudsonians living in the Columbia Triangle who are currently voting in the 3rd ward.  

So my population chart now looks as follows.  Let me know if you have any further comments. Thanks again Jim. I very much appreciate your efforts here. You have been utterly magnificent, and without you, much of this may have never been appropriately resolved. Now I am confident that it will be.






24  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 22, 2014, 10:31:33 pm
That is all fascinating and important, and will find its way to where it should go in due course, but as to my question?

Tonight, the legal committee of the Common Council decided to do a survey to determine the precise boundary between the 4th and 5th ward boundary vis a vis the extrapolation north of 5th St per the charter language. So there you go. You are making difference Jim, and real difference, with me as the messenger. I need to move on the 3rd-5th ward triangle thing, too, at this point, if based on fact. I think I figured out why it all happened, but that is just embroidery for this exercise.
25  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: October 22, 2014, 09:15:07 am
How exactly does the confusion about the boundary between 3 and 5 generate a population error?

Oh, is it the issue that I marked out below with respect to the Columbia Turnpike versus Columbia St. issue?



In other news, I got some press about all of this. Attached to my letter were a lot of maps. Imagine that?  Tongue
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