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December 06, 2016, 12:51:42 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Remaining votes (Update: about 500K ballots left to count nationwide) on: Today at 11:44:43 am
Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        65.44 million     48.22%
Trump         62.79 million     46.27%

As mentioned NM now trend GOP.

and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.49 million     48.22%
Trump         62.85 million     46.27%

For a Clinton lead of 1.95%.

It seems CA is not really done and more votes are coming in.

And with that, it looks like NV replaces MN as the state that voted closest to the national vote.
2  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Likely next US districts after 2020 on: Today at 07:42:21 am
Democrats are massively over represented in Texas. +3 R is easy. Condense TX-35 into Austin, and TX-21 gets some parts of San Antonio. Plenty of room to make TX-23 a safe seat. Plus take the heavily over-represented Valley region and condense to 2 districts. +1 R.

Also, take the blacks out of TX-33 so that rascal Veasey can be primaried by a Hispanic. And maybe bust up Gene Greene's TX-29 too. +1 R again.

I am liking this new map.

I know you don't like the VRA, but doesn't your Texas fantasy run afoul of it?

NY-25 won't be flipping even though it might move a point or two in the Pub direction by taking in the balance of Monroe County, plus a bit of Ontario, unless the Pub trend upstate continues, so to me the odds are pretty high that a Pub seat will be lost upstate. The seat that will be blown apart into pieces is almost certainly going to be mine, NY-19, as I have discussed (and shared with Will Yandik, but I digress). But there is a Pub seat to be had there in south Brooklyn, and perhaps a tossup seat if one is drawn that takes in Rockland, Orange and Sullivan counties (the old Gilmore seat reborn). So the ultimate result is uncertain.

In MN, when I played with the maps, MN-07 is gone, and the new northern MN-08 is about the same as it is now as to PVI, but that was before the big Pub trend this year, which if it hold, will flip it to Pub. The rest of the CD's don't change much in PVI, although I guess MN-02 could move a bit more Pub.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: TIME Person of the Year on: December 05, 2016, 05:43:42 pm
Of course it will be Trump. He has dominated the news like nobody else, and had more impact. Not to compare Trump to Hitler, but Hitler was man of the year in 1936 (I think he was at the piano, with Europe dancing to his tune or something - yes Mr. Luce hated Hitler). It's about influence, for better or worse, for richer or poorer.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Jeff Sessions' Coming War on Legal Marijuana on: December 05, 2016, 03:12:59 pm
This is a total violation of the 10th amendment. The courts should rule marijunana is states issue and not a federal issue

SCOTUS killed off that aspect of the generally comatose 10th amendment long ago, with its robust interpretation of the commence clause. Indeed it came close to killing off the 10th amendment, and federalism in general, with the Obamacare decision, where 4 of the 9 justices held that one was engaged in interstate commerce by choosing not to get out of bed in the morning. Cheers.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: PA-Sen: Rep. Pat Meehan considers run against Sen. Bob Casey on: December 05, 2016, 03:10:35 pm
Here's my definition of a "moderate," perhaps an idiosyncratic one. A moderate is one who tries to make decisions based on data, addressing real problems that are not good for the polity, and goes where the data leads one, without ideological blinders. I can't emphasize what I underlined enough. Sometimes what is prudent, is more in tune with the Left's preferences, and sometimes it is more in tune with what the Right believes, and sometimes leads one in a third direction. It just depends. Also important is keeping in mind the limitations of data (it can be inaccurate, or is based on false assumptions as to causation or otherwise), and that all data needs to undergo a sensitivity analysis.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Jeff Sessions' Coming War on Legal Marijuana on: December 05, 2016, 12:56:18 pm
I think Attorney General Sessions will be too busy jailing dissidents, rolling back the Voting Rights Act, expanding the PATRIOT Act, spying on every single Mosque, somehow banning abortion again, forcibly divorcing gays and then forcibly remarrying them to middle aged divorcees, administering the imagined Hispanicaust, and forcing every American by law to carry a firearm at all times to bother going after a bunch of stoners.

I must say that you have an overactive imagination. Is that a natural "gift," or do you get help from certain "friends?" Smiley
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should Iowa and New Hampshire get to vote first in 2020? on: December 05, 2016, 12:54:30 pm
No, they both should vote last. The Iowa caucus system is particularly offensive.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will Trump be a better president than George W. Bush? on: December 05, 2016, 11:57:02 am
Given that Dubya was something of a disaster, Trump certainly has the potential to be better. Pity that he also has the potential to be much worse, but I prefer not to think about that.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Jeff Sessions' Coming War on Legal Marijuana on: December 05, 2016, 11:55:27 am
How are the chances that the senate rejects his nomination? It wouldn’t be the first time (though the previous one was for a judge’s post).
Considering he is a sitting US Senator and the GOP controls the Senate, nil.

By a majority of two seats. Maybe someone like Rand Paul or Jeff Flake votes against him (assuming no single Democrat votes aye).

Manchin and Collins are already saying they will vote in favor.

There are reports that multiple Democrats will put an indefinite personal hold on his appointment, which is still allowed under the rules (only a filibuster was removed for appointments).

I don't think the out party has the power to put a hold on anything (and I think the hold power for the in party is just for judicial slots if my memory serves). But if you have a link to set me straight, that would be grand.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Jeff Sessions' Coming War on Legal Marijuana on: December 05, 2016, 11:49:27 am
Hopefully the headline is hyperbolic, but not good news! The pot issue needs to go the way of SSM - it's over honey, let's move on. Sessions finally got used to the idea of persons of color having equal rights. He now needs to get used to pot.

*sigh

Just stop this stupidity. Please.

Being a strong political advocate does not mean you have to demonize your opposition just to make yourself feel superior. It does not mean you have to believe every piece of anti-opposition lie that gets pumped out when - deep down - you know it's garbage.

Sessions not only has a long history of defending civil rights, but has also specifically gone after and convicted KKK members who have sought to suppress minorities in the past. Many minority activists have publicly supported him and thanked him for his efforts. He's certainly done a lot more than you will ever do for equality.

So just stop this garbage. If liberals want to continue to have their main platform be 'you're a racist/sexist/homophobe if you disagree with me!', then your party will continue to lose.

Stop being willfully ignorant.

Please tell me what you really think. No reason to bottle it all up inside you.
11  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Petition to make grumps change his signature on: December 05, 2016, 11:47:23 am
Or you could, you know, turn off signatures.

Or, put me on ignore. 

Hey, even moi finds these ladies attractive and a splendid holiday ornament. Keep up the good work! Smiley
12  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: What percentage of the vote would the previous poster get in West Virginia? on: December 05, 2016, 08:13:34 am
28%
13  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who would you have voted for in the 1960 presidential election? on: December 05, 2016, 08:12:19 am
At the time, or in hindsight?
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Jeff Sessions' Coming War on Legal Marijuana on: December 05, 2016, 08:10:16 am
Hopefully the headline is hyperbolic, but not good news! The pot issue needs to go the way of SSM - it's over honey, let's move on. Sessions finally got used to the idea of persons of color having equal rights. He now needs to get used to pot.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: PA-Sen: Rep. Pat Meehan considers run against Sen. Bob Casey on: December 05, 2016, 07:13:36 am
Yeah, in anything but a grotesque gerrymander, Meehan's seat will be gone.
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Are you wealthier or less well off than your local community? on: December 04, 2016, 12:39:00 pm
I live in the poorest ward (well starting next year the penultimate poorest ward) in the poorest governmental subunit in my county. So I guess ... well whatever.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Monkey Cage: Donald Trump did not win 34% of Latino vote in Texas. on: December 03, 2016, 11:49:27 am
The point Jimrtex made, that Hispanics living in mostly white precincts, who may be higher income, and more assimilated, might vote differently, than Hispanics in the barrio. I emphasize the word "might." Hispanics tend to spread themselves around more than blacks when they can afford it, is my impression.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Single Most shocking county result? on: December 01, 2016, 03:53:55 pm
Trump winning Macomb County,MI by 11% points.

That might be the most populated county that swung that hard to Trump. The swing there alone from 2012 generated more than Trump's MI margin.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Democratic senator will 'beat the hell' out of flag burners on: December 01, 2016, 11:40:31 am
Manchin is going native.
20  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Libertarians only: Rand Paul or Gary Johnson? on: December 01, 2016, 11:39:55 am
One is basically an idiot, and one is not.
21  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Shimon Peres on: December 01, 2016, 11:39:19 am
A fundamentally decent and civilized gentleman whom I very much admire.
22  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Yasser Arafat on: December 01, 2016, 11:38:07 am
He's in hell.
23  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Rahm Emanuel on: December 01, 2016, 11:37:39 am
Has some strengths and weaknesses, but is going downhill. He needs to go, assuming there is somebody better in the wings as a replacement.
24  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: City of Hudson's weighed voting system under scrutiny on: December 01, 2016, 11:23:54 am
Now that Hudson has new wards under its belt, it's time to move on to a Columbia County legislative map. Commencing in about  a year from now, one of my projects will be to begin a serious dialogue regarding Columbia County dumping its crazed governmental system, that has no chief executive, and where little gets done competently, or often not at all (as in a codification of its laws, contract maintenance (the sales tax agreement with Hudson expired 10 years ago, and nobody seems to care (yeah sales taxes are also another one of my projects, and I am on it), etc., etc., and the system needs to go. Now that the modus operandi of getting matters on the ballot by petition has been perfected, that will be a weapon in the arsenal if the Supervisors stonewall on the issue.

So I am interested in seeing a legislative map for Columbia County, with no less than 11 districts, and no more than 19. The exact number would be largely driven by what makes for the best map. Since population changes are so sluggish in Columbia County, a map should have a relatively long half life as to its basic design I would think.

The constraints are to split as few towns as possible, and no town, or Hudson, would have more than one chop if at all possible. Tri-chops would be a big demerit, and there would need to be compelling reasons to go there. And yes, the chop in Hudson cannot involve the 2nd ward being appended to Greenport. That would not work politically, as it would neuter persons of color. The same is also almost as true for the 4th ward. So the chop for Hudson would probably need to involve the 5th ward, although it could perhaps be the 3rd ward in a pinch, or a combo of the two.

Thanks.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Transition Team/Cabinet Thread on: December 01, 2016, 09:36:44 am


Fox News: John Bolton met w/ @mike_pence in DC 2day to discuss the Sec of State position & will meet w/ @realDonaldTrump in NY Fri.afternoon
https://twitter.com/BretBaier/status/804084619616337920

So much for the idea that he was out of the running.



Bolton makes zero sense for Trump. He's very rigid, and Trump in foreign policy likes flexibility.
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