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August 27, 2016, 07:28:48 pm
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1  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Is this a freedom letter - or not? on: Today at 11:00:54 am
Completely missed the point of trigger warnings and safe spaces, HL.

What do you view the point of these strictures that was missed?
2  General Politics / Individual Politics / Is this a freedom letter - or not? on: Today at 10:55:20 am
Some might view the letter below as literally a freedom letter. Others might say it is facilitating  the campus becoming an intellectual toxic waste dump. Your choose. It's from the Dean of Students to the incoming Freshmen class of my alma mater, the University of Chicago.

this letter[/url]
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Trump +14% in New Hampshire - Reuters/Ipsos on: Today at 07:20:31 am
Where's TN?
4  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Historic Hudson Happenings Thread on: Today at 07:18:38 am
Rogerson's Hardware store is just so Hudson. The proprietor is a lawyer (and a very good one), but his hardware store is his real passion. His income from it is psychic rather than pecuniary.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Torie on: Today at 05:58:59 am
Nice chap and a Boglehead to boot Smiley

He's a fellow Bogelhead? That raises my opinion of him quite substantially...

I'm going to the Boglehead conference in the Philly area with partner Dan in October. It's always fun to see my pals there, and Danny needs to learn a bit about investing.  He's clueless now, and well, even though the planet needs my presence indefinitely, I will not be around forever.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Paul LePage leaves expletive-filled voicemail for state lawmaker. on: August 26, 2016, 04:59:07 pm
Does this boy do this when sober or drunk?  Inquiring minds want to know. He looks like a lush to me.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What is Zephyr Teachout's future? on: August 26, 2016, 03:27:38 pm
I think that Teachout is an underdog in NY-19 this year. Trump will not be that much of a drag in this area. Faso is a competent candidate. Due to my friendship with Will Yandik, I plan to vote for her however. The reason is that I don't think she will get reelected if she wins in an off year election, when the Dem turnout tends to substantially erode in this area, thus opening the way for Will to try again in 2020, and at that time win the Dem nomination. If Faso wins, he will probably hang around for as long as he wants. Will has the profile and skill and smarts to hold the seat. Teachout most definitely does not. She's affable enough, but there is not much in the way of policy substance in her brain. She does not have much depth. That combined with her uber PC, NYC oriented image, leaves her very vulnerable.

Why would it matter if Faso becomes entrenched in 2016 or 2018?

I don't understand your point. Yes, I suppose the Pub who wins in 2018 beating Teachout could become entrenched, but 2020 is a POTUS election year, so it gives Will a shot.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Minneapolis to vote on $15/hour minimum wage on: August 26, 2016, 07:54:42 am
Small islands of a higher minimum wage make zero sense to me (and Minneapolis is a small island). It is one thing to have a minimum wage differential between a large metro area and the hinterlands (as in NY between the NYC orbit (with a much higher cost of living), and the far away hinterlands), where it is not really going to shove economic activity across some nearby border, and quite another where that is a real risk.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Monmouth Poll: Clinton +4 in Ohio on: August 26, 2016, 07:48:31 am
The thing is Seriously?, 2012 exit polls and actual polls of likely/registered voters showed there to be more Democrats than Republican in Ohio. Why would Monmouth find there to be more Republicans?
They got a crap underlying sample here. That's my point. There was a lot of massaging to make this thing even workable. I am well aware that the exit poll numbers were in the D+7 or so range. They massaged this poll to D+4. The raw sample was R+4.

Did they massage this poll so that it ended up D+4, or did they do other demographic weights that happened to bring the sample to D+4?  There is a huge, huge methodological difference between those two things.  Obviously, neither is desirable, but with polling response rates what they are these days, demographic weighting is probably becoming more and more pronounced in polls.  That may make it more desirable than declining to re-weigh.

Demographic weighting is industry-standard, not undesirable. Even in the days of 25% response rates, (good) pollsters weighted because of differential turnout among RV subsamples, and unequal selection probabilities within households.

To be clear, I didn't mean to indicate weighting is a bad practice -- it's a necessary one.  I just meant polls would be even better if the phenomena that necessitate weighting didn't exist.  It's undesirable that poll respondents are so unrepresentative, and while weighting is the best solution to fixing that problem, it would be better if the problem didn't exist.

For instance, we can weigh up the sample of 18-to-24 year old white females, but that assumes that we're getting a representative sample of 18-to-24 year old white females, and whatever causes a low proportion of those to respond isn't also causing an unrepresentative sample of those to respond.  (Weighting is the right thing to do in that case, but it can't fix every underlying problem.

edit: A more obvious example - weighting up the Hispanic respondent % will get you a misleading result if you don't give a poll in Spanish, because English-only interviews will result in an unrepresentative sample of Hispanics, and re-weighting on race alone won't fix that

Given all the problems with polling these days, it is amazing that the polls are as accurate as they are. This year will be a big test for them, since past election models might not be replicated in this election, and that is what in part is relied upon to do the weighting.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What is Zephyr Teachout's future? on: August 26, 2016, 07:20:18 am
I think that Teachout is an underdog in NY-19 this year. Trump will not be that much of a drag in this area. Faso is a competent candidate. Due to my friendship with Will Yandik, I plan to vote for her however. The reason is that I don't think she will get reelected if she wins in an off year election, when the Dem turnout tends to substantially erode in this area, thus opening the way for Will to try again in 2020, and at that time win the Dem nomination. If Faso wins, he will probably hang around for as long as he wants. Will has the profile and skill and smarts to hold the seat. Teachout most definitely does not. She's affable enough, but there is not much in the way of policy substance in her brain. She does not have much depth. That combined with her uber PC, NYC oriented image, leaves her very vulnerable.
11  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Pack and cover rule revisited on: August 26, 2016, 06:50:14 am
Well that might be the best argument for elevating inequality (which I have been resisting) if the pack penalty is too weak (and one does not want to elevate it further) to keep a map on the pareto optimal frontier that is really what the public square wants when it comes to having a CD wholly within a metro area. It becomes particularly stark where you have a metro area bigger than one CD but smaller than two CD's, and represents a relative large percentage of the state. Coming up with rules that cause something that will instantly result in rejection in a given state is not good.
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of "nice guy, FF :)" reasoning on: August 25, 2016, 03:12:44 pm
The Manichean HP versus FF thing is a fail right out of the box. FP, BP and HP, as in Freedom Poster, Beta Poster, and Horrible Poster, would make more sense. Judging folks on the internet as people rather than posters is problematical.

Using Greek letters as adjectives in one of the worst memes ever. Let's not spread it further.


Also, from that thread Morden linked to:

Without a doubt, a true freedom fighter.

Looks like I'm not the only one who ever changed his mind about a poster, right BRTD? Wink

Well if you don't like the alpha and beta thing, how about mensch, nebbish and schmuck as the 3 categories?  Smiley
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: She went there: Hillary releases ad about KKK's support for Donald Trump on: August 25, 2016, 03:09:10 pm
It is not fair to tar someone based on who supports such person. As Reagan said, about kooks supporting him, is that they are supporting me, I am not supporting them. I think this ad is a waste of money. I don't think most folks think Trump is a racist. He's a nationalist, and a xenophobe, but not  a racist. Bashing Trump for his fondness for Putin is fair game.

In not so enigmatic ways he has drawn this support intentionally. No other major presidential candidate in the past few cycles has drawn this sort of support. If you want to vote for the guy, go right ahead, but don't make him out as not being a racist, because he is and it's fair game. He was racist long before he ran for President.

No, I don't want to vote for him silly. He has plenty of character flaws as it is. Among other things he is a narcissist.

Watch it with the name calling. If you have to name call, then perhaps the truth really rang home. You're not fooling anyone with that red avatar.

You think I am really am a secret supporter or something?  LOL. Don't take the "silly" comment personally. It was not meant that way. It is just silly to think I would vote for Trump under any circumstances. I viscerally loathe the man.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MI-Suffolk: Clinton +7 on: August 25, 2016, 02:16:13 pm
"It is also consistent with Iowa being a tossup. Outside of Greater Detroit and Flint-Saginaw, Michigan is a fair analogue for Iowa."

That is sort of like say, that outside the NYC metro orbit, NY is an analogue to Ohio.  Heck, Rochester has a very Midwestern feel to me.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: She went there: Hillary releases ad about KKK's support for Donald Trump on: August 25, 2016, 02:01:55 pm
It is not fair to tar someone based on who supports such person. As Reagan said, about kooks supporting him, is that they are supporting me, I am not supporting them. I think this ad is a waste of money. I don't think most folks think Trump is a racist. He's a nationalist, and a xenophobe, but not  a racist. Bashing Trump for his fondness for Putin is fair game.

In not so enigmatic ways he has drawn this support intentionally. No other major presidential candidate in the past few cycles has drawn this sort of support. If you want to vote for the guy, go right ahead, but don't make him out as not being a racist, because he is and it's fair game. He was racist long before he ran for President.

No, I don't want to vote for him silly. He has plenty of character flaws as it is. Among other things he is a narcissist.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: She went there: Hillary releases ad about KKK's support for Donald Trump on: August 25, 2016, 12:41:46 pm
It is not fair to tar someone based on who supports such person. As Reagan said, about kooks supporting him, is that they are supporting me, I am not supporting them. I think this ad is a waste of money. I don't think most folks think Trump is a racist. He's a nationalist, and a xenophobe, but not  a racist. Bashing Trump for his fondness for Putin is fair game.
17  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Which Airport? Chicago area on: August 25, 2016, 09:50:15 am
Speaking of airports, below is my favorite airport. It has no crowds, and no Homeland Security goons, and parking is free.

18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Kellyanne can keep Trump on a short leash, can he win? on: August 25, 2016, 09:33:48 am
One narrow path might be if Trump gets bland enough, maybe the Dem turnout will be down, since many Dems don't like Hillary. But I don't see educated voters who more often than not vote Pub, but have deemed Trump unfit, changing their minds at this point. The evidence that Trump is unfit to be POTUS is just too dispositive, making it highly unlikely that additional evidence becoming available as time goes by, will change such voters' minds. The election kind of reminds me of 1972. I voted for Nixon believing him to be a felon. Why? Because I deemed McGovern unfit. I think I made the right judgment. Similarly, yes, Hillary is untrustworthy and morally challenged. It makes no difference given the alternative. So whatever additional dirt comes down on Hillary is unlikely to change the outcome. So that leaves Trump with turnout models to hope for, sort of like Mittens in 2012. Yes, I know, that didn't work out for Mittens. Pity that.
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of "nice guy, FF :)" reasoning on: August 25, 2016, 09:26:19 am
The Manichean HP versus FF thing is a fail right out of the box. FP, BP and HP, as in Freedom Poster, Beta Poster, and Horrible Poster, would make more sense. Judging folks on the internet as people rather than posters is problematical.
20  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Pack and cover rule revisited on: August 25, 2016, 07:28:21 am
I have never done Nebraska before, and here is an example of where the rules would force the Omaha district to do something other than macro-chop Sarpy county (which is the way the lines are drawn now). These maps are just an approximation of what the next census would dictate (Douglas, Lancaster and Sarpy counties have all of the population growth in Nebraska). This will be controversial I suspect. The chop of Sarpy does not make the pareto optimal frontier.



Well, I guess the Sarpy chop map can if no subdivision is chopped, and the alternative map has one chop someplace.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN Arizona and North Carolina Polls: AZ: Trump +5 NC: Clinton +1 on: August 24, 2016, 04:13:37 pm
AZ is the Democrats' Minnesota. They always hope it flips because of favorable demographic trends, but it never happens.

The thing is about AZ though, is that the Pubs get a bigger chunk of the Hispanics outside the Cuban zone than in most places. Will that adequately hold given the Trump presentation?
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should Trump go after Pennsylvania or Michigan? on: August 22, 2016, 10:27:45 am
The way for Trump to put PA in play, is to hypnotize college educated whites in the Philly burbs, and lace their drinking water with LSD, such that when in the voting booth they believe that in fact the GOP candidate is Rob Portman rather than Donald Trump, and read the words Trump on the printed page of the ballot as Portman.
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What do you think the previous poster thinks of you? on: August 22, 2016, 07:30:59 am
I have no reason to believe that he thinks about me at all. Smiley
24  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: August 2016 House of Representative Elections on: August 21, 2016, 12:45:55 pm
1   ClarkKent
2   Shua
3   dfwlibertylover
4   Abraham Washington
5   Peebs
6   Santander
7   evergreen
8   Talleyrand
9   Classic Conservative
11   1184AZ
12   Clyde
12   NeverAgain
13   JCL
25  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: 2nd Amendment applies to non-1790's weapons on: August 21, 2016, 09:05:04 am
So the citizens have the right to have the same munitions as the US army does, Muon2?

That's not the way I read the passages from that time. I see those American writers describing a militia of the people in the same way I see Mao's strategy for his early army, one consisting of large numbers of lightly armed irregulars that could deflect and if necessary bring to a halt the army of a central government.

But lightly armed irregulars could not defeat today's army, as was the case then. So if the rational is the ability to defeat, then the type of arms is a moving target, akin to what is deemed "cruel and unusual." 
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