My prediction:
the left will survive the local elections (by winning Marseilles and keeping Toulouse, Reims, Rouen, Caen, Strasbourg, Paris, and maybe losing only Metz and Amiens) but will be crushed by the FN, the FG and EELV in the European elections.
But not by the UMP, which won't be able to do well in these elections, as usual.
Ayrault's term will end just after the European elections, if Hollande knows well his Mitterrand-like scenario. Then, enters Aubry or Valls.

Well, Bartolone agrees with me this morning in Le Figaro
BTW, depending on the European elections results, depending on where the former socialist votes will go (FG, EELV or FN) and depending on the level of the socialist defeat, Ayrault will be replaced by Valls (if the FN is really high), Aubry (if EELV is strong) or Bartolone (if Mélenchon comes back.
Yeah, Bartolone is also a possibility.

Welcome back, Fab!

So how do you feel about Hollande's successful attempt to destroy traditional family and murder innocent children?

I'll try to be here from time to time, but my added value will probably be low.

Besides my own lasting problems, this is another cause for being depressed.
I haven't demonstrated every time but still: 24 October, 17 November, 13 January, 24 March
I've got the big flags, the sweat-shirts, some stickers, a scarf,...
But I failed to be in Rennes on 2 February and 5 May and, what is more, in Paris on 26 May
Who said only the left knew how to demonstrate ?

Of course, no "unofficial" demonstration or action from me. I'm a pure legitimist.
I'm sad the movement is now divided and that the moderate conservatives won't be able to grasp the media attention. Medias will be too happy to inists only on those stupid guys from Le Printemps Français or even further on the right.

Anyway, ready to oppose PMA and GPA, now

But let's not pollute this thread....


My prediction:
the left will survive the local elections (by winning Marseilles and keeping Toulouse, Reims, Rouen, Caen, Strasbourg, Paris, and maybe losing only Metz and Amiens) but will be crushed by the FN, the FG and EELV in the European elections.
But not by the UMP, which won't be able to do well in these elections, as usual.
Ayrault's term will end just after the European elections, if Hollande knows well his Mitterrand-like scenario. Then, enters Aubry or Valls.

Not so sure the UMP will win easily in the second round.
Many moderate leftists will think it's no use voting at all.
Many leftists will not want to make such a present to the abhorred right.

The UMP isn't exactly triumphant here.
With harkis, pieds-noirs, fruits and vegetables culture, small businesses, some seasonal immigration, this constituency is ideal for the FN in the SW.

Sure, Oise was even better for the FN, but I'm not really at ease with all that.

I had no clue that YouGov had crossed the Channel and invaded the continent. Besides the obvious outlier on the FG's number, the silly thing is the inclusion of a vague 'other right' and 'other left' option which is silly. Barring anything unforeseen, besides DLR, no 'other right' list will be of any relevance and I can't see an 'other left' list of any kind winning up to 5%.

"Others" was with an "s"... but still... you're right, it's complete trash.

They have polled popularity ratings since last October, something like that.
I don't know who is their owner: maybe some media group that has grown in France and has imported YouGov, too.
Well, they are not so bad in Britain: hope they will better in France; but the US aren't a good precedent.

So far:

HARRIS for LCP-Assemblée Nationale (22-24 May 2013, sample: 1279):
UMP 23
PS 21
FN 18
EELV 10
FG 8
UDI 8
MoDem 6
LO-NPA 2
DLR 1
others 3

IFOP for Valeurs Actuelles (29-31 May 2013, sample: 1869):
UMP 21
PS 21
FN 21
FG 9
EELV 7.5
MoDem 7
UDI 6.5
DLR 3
NPA 2
others 2

YouGov for i-Télé and Huffington Post (7-12 June 2013, sample: 1012):
UMP 19
FN 18
PS 15
FG 15
MoDem 8
EELV 7
UDI 5
NPA 2
others right: 6
others left: 5

At least, with such an arrival from YouGov, LH2 and CSA will feel a bit less depressed: they won't be the worst pollsters in France for some time...

(I know it's not about elections, but the other "odds and ends" or "trash" or "dustbin" thread is too old to bump)

Here are some (few, I must say) interesting (and sometimes hilarious: guess where there are many practitioners of shooting ? ) maps on sport membership in France:
http://www.sports.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/atlas.pdf

Is basket-ball a MRP sport ?

Another, more famous, episode from 1994:

May I say that this is marvelously predictive of the "new" FN electorate of the following years ?

"Popular" left, some "lost" rural areas, very old small-industries areas,...

Apart from Bouches-du-Rhône (but it was just the favourite son effect), these are the areas where Panzergirl has made the biggest gains.

Well, the hierarchy between the 3 constituencies was the same in 81 and 84.

And a 3 point gap in a constituency in a European election, with low turnout (though it's 84, not the 21st century), it's not that impossible.
Sure, I can't remember about local big guns for the Greens...

I have another idea, FWIW: the new nuclear plant of Golfech which was being built during these years.

My hopes:
1. Ouellet
2. Schönborn
3. Tagle
4. Canizares
5. Ranjith

My predictions:
1. Ouellet
2. Bagnasco
3. Piacenza
4. Erdö
5. Scola
(as usual, it will be the other way round; but predictions are here to fail)

- Hash, as for Green results in Lot-et-Garonne in 1981 and 1984, I'm not so sure that there is a mistake.
I remember that, in these years, there were very lively structures of organic farming (there are still a lot) in Lot-et-Garonne and many local rallies of anti-nuclear, pacifist, environment-friendly structures.
Well, between 2.6 and 4.1%, it might be an explanation...

- homely, about Poujadists' results in Eure, well, Mendès-France was pretty popular among rurals, especially among shopkeepers and tradesmen but also among peasants.
Locally, he was a moderate Radical, not a leftist one, and, as PM, he made decisions which were good for this electorate (free milk for pupils in schools, for example: a good market for breeders and for grocers).

These are "micro"-explanations, but reasonable ones.

- As for 1984 and the list with Lalonde and Stirn, it was a list with Lalonde, Stirn AND François Doubin, MRG leader of the time. It was so dubbed the LSD list
I was too young (13) to vote, but old enough to litterally force my parents to vote for them

Eliminate Sanders

Eliminate Gillibrand
Save Tester

Corker and Whitehouse out and Gillibrand still here ? I really should have voted

Eliminate
8 Sanders

Save
4 Nelson

3 Gillibrand
2 Cardin
1 Klobuchar

Eliminate Sanders
Immunize Tester

Heidi Heitkamp for survivor!

Losers:
Hirono
Murphy

Eliminate Murphy

Eliminate Baldwin

A depressing survivor game, as far as I'm concerned

Eliminate, well, Heller

Well... I feel like some computer...

8 Heitkamp
7 King
6 Kaine
5 Heller
4 Murphy
3 Heinrich
2 Baldwin
1 Hirono

Don't misinterpret things: we are just after a US election year, so, we've got the usual survivors... After that, it will fade again... Sorry to be so pessimistic

Otherwise, I of course completely agree with you on this original "spirit".

Amazingly surprising defeat for Plagnol.

Big defeats for the PS.
Big defeat for my (initial) predictions

But more important, big win for Patrick the Survivor.

Without any stock of votes after the first round, he is doing really well.
Leftist voters must begin to be angry, it seems.

So maybe FPTP is not the worst thing in the world. Ugh.

Quoting in case you delete it one day

Amazingly surprising defeat for Plagnol.

Big defeats for the PS.
Big defeat for my (initial) predictions

After all, maybe it would be better to keep on fighting inside the UMP: it seems to work !