Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 23, 2014, 11:03:27 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 550
1  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: France General Discussion II: Living under Marxism on: October 21, 2013, 08:19:02 am
Mennucci 57.16%
Ghali 42.84%

24,037 voters.

It's a great result for Ghali. And a symptom of a problem of authority inside the PS: populism and disdain for Hollande and Ayrault aren't only outside the PS, in the popular electorate which has largely swung to the FN or dropped any idea of turning out; they are also inside some local PS organizations.

Of course, Gaudin is old, Mennucci is a better candidate than Ghali and a potential FN pressure on Gaudin may result in his defeat anyway. But, well, whereas I was very pessimistic for his reelection only weeks ago, he may win again, after all.
2  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: France General Discussion II: Living under Marxism on: October 21, 2013, 08:14:41 am
And Paris' PCF voted 57-43 in favor of 1st round lists with the PS...

They are a moribund party of moribund members under social liberal breathing assistance. Well... I'm not voting for this list either round.

Even though many young Communist leaders are more leftists (I mean socially liberal "gauchistes") than real communists, I think that there is something of a new landscape emerging in the "left of the left".
See Dieppe, where an EELV-PG list will fight against the PCF incumbent, supported by the PS.
See Rennes, with a PS-PCF list attacked by a EELV-PG-UDB list.
See also the Leonarda issue, with a split inside the PS between Lienemann, Hamon or Désir on one side, Kalfon (from the "Gauche populaire"), Royal or Le Guen on the other. Very interesting.

Old communists plus socialist apparatchiki, against red (Mélenchon-NPA), pink (Hamon) or green (EELV) "gauchistes", this may be the new split inside the left.
Of course, as the left of the left is as united and well-organized as the centre-right (whatever alliance MoDem and UDI may put forward...), there won't be a two-big-party left, with a social democrat wing and a leftist wing.
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: France General Discussion II: Living under Marxism on: October 16, 2013, 05:24:26 am
Very useful maps.

All the candidates, except Masse (who doesn't choose), are now behind Mennucci.

Well, it's a good thing for Ghali: she's now the "anti-system" and "anti-Paris" candidate... Quite funny for someone probably supported by Guérini (anti-system, eh ?...).

Jibrayel, Masse and most of Caselli voters will vote for Ghali, despite what their candidates say.

I'm more and more convinced she can win.

After all, Gaudin may be able to be reelected next March, as socialists will probably fight each other and as Ghali will probably lead a municipal campaign "à la Royal".
4  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: France General Discussion II: Living under Marxism on: October 14, 2013, 02:23:51 am
The first round of the PS' "primaires citoyennes" for the munis were today, most notably in Marseille where it was a very hot and acrimonious 6 candidate race (naturally, it is Marseillais PS politics!). Apparently, PS senator Samia Ghali (from northern Marseille, and fairly pro-Guérini mafia clan) and PS deputy Patrick Mennucci (from central Marseille, pretty strongly anti-Guérini now) have qualified for the runoff, the defeated include Marie-Arlette Carlotti, a cabinet minister.

A few good articles for those interested (highly recommended):
http://www.slate.fr/france/78762/primaire-marseille-caselli-carlotti-ghali-mennucci-guerini
http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2013/10/03/samia-ghali-la-segolene-royal-de-marseille-bouscule-la-campagne-ps_3489347_823448.html
http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2013/10/09/a-marseille-le-sprint-final-des-candidats-a-la-primaire-ps_3492296_823448.html

Complete results are on the PS website (also for Aix, Béziers and Le Havre).
Mennucci hasn't won yet... as Caselli and Jibrayel voters will probably go to Ghali and as Masse voters may split.

Maybe some Gaudin supporters have voted for Ghali, hoping that she will explode during the municipal campaign Grin
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: France General Discussion II: Living under Marxism on: October 07, 2013, 04:11:09 am
Fun news of the day: some obscure article in a law passed by Poison Dwarf in 2010 allows me to vote for the European Parliament... in the Ile-de-France constituency Cheesy

I envy you: being able to vote for Pécresse Tongue
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French legislative by-elections, March 17-24 2013 on: October 06, 2013, 04:00:25 pm
"Ni droite, ni gauche": there it is...

The UMP has probably lost a bit towards the PdF.
But the left, well,.... I know some have probably abstained and many former non-voters have voted for the FN. But that can't be the whole story: many, many popular votes for the FN.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Elections 1848-2010 on: August 29, 2013, 03:59:26 pm
sort-of-Roms in the 14th
Full story pretty please!?

See this small lil' pink area in the 2009 map, in the right down corner of 14th arrondissement ?
This is Porte de Vanves, a small neighbourhood inhabited by "former" Roms (I mean, settled French gypsies; sorry for the erroneous confusion between the 2 populations, though ancestries may be identical).
BTW, still 10 years ago, they used to fight against some Arab minorities from Losserand street, not far from Porte de Vanves, just to the north of it.

These small pecularities of Paris are fascinating, though mostly ignored.

All around Paris, just between the "peripherique" (ring road) and the "inner boulevards", you've got very specific neighbourhoods, artificially put one besides the other. And, mostly (except int he west, of course) with ethnic minorities.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Elections 1848-2010 on: August 28, 2013, 08:30:04 am
- If you know Paris well (I mean, almost street by street), these maps aren't surprising at all.
Paris is so densely populated and built, that you can guess almost exactly the results of each precinct.
What is absolutety fantastic is to see this on a finely designed map: thanks a lot, Hash Cheesy !

- As for 2009, the only precincts won by the PS are minority ones:
Blacks and Arabs in the 18th, 19th and 20th arrondissements, sort-of-Roms and Arabs in the 14th, Asians and Blacks in the 13th. Quite funny.

- When you see the 2007 map, it makes me sad again about the 1st and the 15th arrondissements (and of course the 6th, but that's no surprise): one day, they'll be competitive for the left Sad though it's far slower than I thought in the 15th.
Of course, conversely, some others can be won back by the right, but not the 14th, dear stupid NKM: I've alaways said that the 9th should be the first target, then the 12th AND the 4th, then the 2nd (while keeping the 5th, of course).
The 14th is a quintessential bobo arrondissement: even with the quintessential bobo rightist NKM, I can't believe it will switch back to the UMP.

- Hash, was your sentence "Similar maps (and more) can be done at the precinct level for anywhere in France (which has more than one polling station) for 2007, 2009 and 2010 elections" a call for tender Wink ?
Bordeaux and Strasbourg would be my favourites. If you hae time to make just one for 2007, maybe Strasbourg, as there should be an interesting result, with the inner island in the center and some very different neighbourhoods around.
Bordeaux may be quite mixed and funny.
Whereas Rennes would be boring (too weirdly organized as a city: no real coherence).
Lyons, Perpignan and Tours may be other good candidates, but I'm not an expert.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Elections 1848-2010 on: August 13, 2013, 08:23:53 am
Many of Hash's maps have become unreadable Sad
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Hashemite's Random Numbers and Stats about French elections on: August 13, 2013, 08:22:09 am
http://www.ifop.com/media/pressdocument/607-1-document_file.pdf

A quite interesting analysis of differences between the "leftish northern" FN and the "rightish southern" FN.
11  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: France General Discussion II: Living under Marxism on: July 05, 2013, 04:59:04 am
Sarko resigning immediately from the Constitutional Council. Is that a first for an ex-president?

Is the resignation definitive or can he recover his seat whenever he wants?
I'm not sure if it's possible to resign...
It is possible to resign, and it is possible to retake your seat. Apparently Vincent Auriol was the first and only to do both : resigned in 1960, returned in 1962.

You don't resign from the CC: you can only "not take part in its works and meetings", because former presidents are automatically members, by law or ex officio in a way.

Giscard took part in the CC only a long, long time after 1981.



Well, it's of course a very bad news for the UMP.
I predict that Sarkozy will try to create another movement, which will try to federate UMP, UDI and some other small things.
So as to not be obliged to contest the UMP primaries (the new rules of the UMP aren't very good for Sarkozy...) and to prevent Fillon (and Borloo or any small centre-right politician) from being a candidate.
And so as to steal some money from these parties, without having to repay for the debts he left (because he also left debts in the party in 2007 that weren't erased in 2012...).

Sigh... when will the rightist base understand that Sarkozy will kill the right and give Hollande a second term ?
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French legislative by-elections, March 17-24 2013 on: June 24, 2013, 02:53:15 am
Copé has immediately stated that the "droite décomplexée" is the best strategy.
What a mistake and how worrying for the years to come....
Well, either he will pave the way for a more efficient FN to swallow half of the UMP. Or he will make sure that all the moderates will flee to a moderate centre-left candidate.
Sarkozy will add his own mess, probably trying to create a new party, over the UMP (so as to avoid primary elections and to crush Fillon from the outside)... A new party which will be cleraly on the right of the right.

Today, there is no momentum for the UMP and that's a real problem.
Jean-Marie Le Pen was at between 10 and 15%, with only a peak once at 20%.
Panzergirl is at 15-20%, with an ability to reach 25%. She can make it to the second round in a presidential election. And then, with a growing hate between right and left, and despair among a large bunch of leftists, and disappointment among a good half of rightists, she might be able to create a surprise.
And then, if the FN is able to reach 25-30% in the legislative elections following the presidential election, well...

Sure, that's not a very likely scenario, but still... when limits are broken, everything can happen very quickly.

Too bad Fillon hasn't a stronger personality... to avoid this nightmare.



As for the by-election itself, it just reveals that the FN is clearly the party of "the people", now. It's strong among popular left (workers of course, but also small employees) and popular right (either small businesses, or rural voters).
What is more, the FN is stronger and stronger in areas where it has always been weak: Berry, Touraine, Charentes,... maybe all the SW and the inner NW now.
The problem is I meet more and more people from the "elite" or from bourgeois classes who are ready to vote for the FN.
When the FN is able to have better results in Ile-de-France, be ready for the worst scenario.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: European Elections 2014 (France) on: June 19, 2013, 02:16:55 am
My prediction:
the left will survive the local elections (by winning Marseilles and keeping Toulouse, Reims, Rouen, Caen, Strasbourg, Paris, and maybe losing only Metz and Amiens) but will be crushed by the FN, the FG and EELV in the European elections.
But not by the UMP, which won't be able to do well in these elections, as usual.
Ayrault's term will end just after the European elections, if Hollande knows well his Mitterrand-like scenario. Then, enters Aubry or Valls.



Well, Bartolone agrees with me this morning in Le Figaro Tongue
BTW, depending on the European elections results, depending on where the former socialist votes will go (FG, EELV or FN) and depending on the level of the socialist defeat, Ayrault will be replaced by Valls (if the FN is really high), Aubry (if EELV is strong) or Bartolone (if Mélenchon comes back.
Yeah, Bartolone is also a possibility.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: European Elections 2014 (France) on: June 17, 2013, 10:44:25 am
Welcome back, Fab! Smiley

So how do you feel about Hollande's successful attempt to destroy traditional family and murder innocent children? Wink

I'll try to be here from time to time, but my added value will probably be low.

Besides my own lasting problems, this is another cause for being depressed.
I haven't demonstrated every time but still: 24 October, 17 November, 13 January, 24 March Tongue
I've got the big flags, the sweat-shirts, some stickers, a scarf,...
But I failed to be in Rennes on 2 February and 5 May and, what is more, in Paris on 26 May Sad
Who said only the left knew how to demonstrate ?

Of course, no "unofficial" demonstration or action from me. I'm a pure legitimist.
I'm sad the movement is now divided and that the moderate conservatives won't be able to grasp the media attention. Medias will be too happy to inists only on those stupid guys from Le Printemps Français or even further on the right.

Anyway, ready to oppose PMA and GPA, now Cheesy

But let's not pollute this thread....



My prediction:
the left will survive the local elections (by winning Marseilles and keeping Toulouse, Reims, Rouen, Caen, Strasbourg, Paris, and maybe losing only Metz and Amiens) but will be crushed by the FN, the FG and EELV in the European elections.
But not by the UMP, which won't be able to do well in these elections, as usual.
Ayrault's term will end just after the European elections, if Hollande knows well his Mitterrand-like scenario. Then, enters Aubry or Valls.

15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French legislative by-elections, March 17-24 2013 on: June 17, 2013, 10:32:55 am
Not so sure the UMP will win easily in the second round.
Many moderate leftists will think it's no use voting at all.
Many leftists will not want to make such a present to the abhorred right.

The UMP isn't exactly triumphant here.
With harkis, pieds-noirs, fruits and vegetables culture, small businesses, some seasonal immigration, this constituency is ideal for the FN in the SW.

Sure, Oise was even better for the FN, but I'm not really at ease with all that.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: European Elections 2014 (France) on: June 17, 2013, 10:27:40 am
I had no clue that YouGov had crossed the Channel and invaded the continent. Besides the obvious outlier on the FG's number, the silly thing is the inclusion of a vague 'other right' and 'other left' option which is silly. Barring anything unforeseen, besides DLR, no 'other right' list will be of any relevance and I can't see an 'other left' list of any kind winning up to 5%.

"Others" was with an "s"... but still... you're right, it's complete trash.

They have polled popularity ratings since last October, something like that.
I don't know who is their owner: maybe some media group that has grown in France and has imported YouGov, too.
Well, they are not so bad in Britain: hope they will better in France; but the US aren't a good precedent.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: European Elections 2014 (France) on: June 17, 2013, 10:20:14 am
So far:

HARRIS for LCP-Assemblée Nationale (22-24 May 2013, sample: 1279):
UMP 23
PS 21
FN 18
EELV 10
FG 8
UDI 8
MoDem 6
LO-NPA 2
DLR 1
others 3

IFOP for Valeurs Actuelles (29-31 May 2013, sample: 1869):
UMP 21
PS 21
FN 21
FG 9
EELV 7.5
MoDem 7
UDI 6.5
DLR 3
NPA 2
others 2

YouGov for i-Télé and Huffington Post (7-12 June 2013, sample: 1012):
UMP 19
FN 18
PS 15
FG 15
MoDem 8
EELV 7
UDI 5
NPA 2
others right: 6
others left: 5

At least, with such an arrival from YouGov, LH2 and CSA will feel a bit less depressed: they won't be the worst pollsters in France for some time...
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Hashemite's Random Numbers and Stats about French elections on: June 17, 2013, 09:15:46 am
(I know it's not about elections, but the other "odds and ends" or "trash" or "dustbin" thread is too old to bump)

Here are some (few, I must say) interesting (and sometimes hilarious: guess where there are many practitioners of shooting ? Wink) maps on sport membership in France:
http://www.sports.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/atlas.pdf

Is basket-ball a MRP sport ? Tongue
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Elections 1848-2010 on: June 17, 2013, 09:00:25 am
Another, more famous, episode from 1994:



May I say that this is marvelously predictive of the "new" FN electorate of the following years ?

"Popular" left, some "lost" rural areas, very old small-industries areas,...

Apart from Bouches-du-Rhône (but it was just the favourite son effect), these are the areas where Panzergirl has made the biggest gains.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Elections 1848-2010 on: March 13, 2013, 10:17:42 am
Well, the hierarchy between the 3 constituencies was the same in 81 and 84.

And a 3 point gap in a constituency in a European election, with low turnout (though it's 84, not the 21st century), it's not that impossible.
Sure, I can't remember about local big guns for the Greens...

I have another idea, FWIW: the new nuclear plant of Golfech which was being built during these years.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Vatican City 2013 papal election on: March 13, 2013, 10:08:46 am
My hopes:
1. Ouellet
2. Schönborn
3. Tagle
4. Canizares
5. Ranjith

My predictions:
1. Ouellet
2. Bagnasco
3. Piacenza
4. Erdö
5. Scola
(as usual, it will be the other way round; but predictions are here to fail)
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Elections 1848-2010 on: March 13, 2013, 09:49:35 am
- Hash, as for Green results in Lot-et-Garonne in 1981 and 1984, I'm not so sure that there is a mistake.
I remember that, in these years, there were very lively structures of organic farming (there are still a lot) in Lot-et-Garonne and many local rallies of anti-nuclear, pacifist, environment-friendly structures.
Well, between 2.6 and 4.1%, it might be an explanation...

- homely, about Poujadists' results in Eure, well, Mendès-France was pretty popular among rurals, especially among shopkeepers and tradesmen but also among peasants.
Locally, he was a moderate Radical, not a leftist one, and, as PM, he made decisions which were good for this electorate (free milk for pupils in schools, for example: a good market for breeders and for grocers).

These are "micro"-explanations, but reasonable ones.

- As for 1984 and the list with Lalonde and Stirn, it was a list with Lalonde, Stirn AND François Doubin, MRG leader of the time. It was so dubbed the LSD list Wink
I was too young (13) to vote, but old enough to litterally force my parents to vote for them Smiley
23  Forum Community / Survivor / Re: Reelected Senators in the 2012 US Senate election Survivor on: January 14, 2013, 03:12:04 am
Eliminate Sanders
24  Forum Community / Survivor / Re: Reelected Senators in the 2012 US Senate election Survivor on: January 11, 2013, 07:59:16 am
Eliminate Gillibrand
Save Tester
25  Forum Community / Survivor / Re: Reelected Senators in the 2012 US Senate election Survivor on: January 08, 2013, 08:34:22 am
Corker and Whitehouse out and Gillibrand still here ? I really should have voted Tongue

Eliminate
8 Sanders

Save
4 Nelson
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 550


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines