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August 30, 2015, 01:01:07 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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51  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Could Hillary have won Arkansas and West Virginia in 2008? on: May 19, 2015, 01:53:57 pm
Yes, but not by much.
52  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Would the death penalty be justified for Hitler? on: May 18, 2015, 05:15:02 pm
For a monster of Hitler's magnitude, yes. If you commit genocide or try your hardest to commit it, you clearly aren't repentant, and your crime is worthy of the death penalty. Though I might be against it since it would make him a martyr to idiotic neo-Nazis (even moreso then he already is).

He would have been a martyr no matter what, even if he had died in prison many decades after the war. Rudolf Hess's grave was destroyed in 2011 because it had become a pilgrimage site for Neo-Nazis: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-14232768
53  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Apparently Kentucky is a tossup on: May 18, 2015, 01:44:58 pm
It won't be once we get more polls.
54  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: There Is No 'Blue Wall' on: May 12, 2015, 03:06:51 pm
The Blue Wall is a popular vote wall not an electoral college one. Obviously if Romney won the PV by 4%, he'd win all those states.

But in order to win the PV by 4%, with anti-immigration, anti-welfare, anti-minority rhetoric, they'd have to carry 65% of the white vote. Good luck.

The GOP can win 65% of the white vote....with all the race baiting going on currently, I predict they win 70% in 2016

LOL


There's a hard floor in the white vote of granola types, single women, latte liberals, gays and their supporters, Reform Jews, unionites, young urbanites, the highly educated, and New Englanders who will never, ever vote for the Republican party in it's current form.
55  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Robert Stark's radio show on: May 11, 2015, 08:13:57 pm
From April 30, 2015: A segment called "What would Luke possibly talk about with a hot 19yo?"

From May 9, 2015: A show "brought to you by Robert Stark's Artwork." This piece, called 'View of Stimson Beach,' can by yours for the low low price of $1,200.



http://www.mesart.com/artwork.jsp.que.artwork.eq.51279.shtml

To be fair, his art isn't bad, but there's no way I would shell out $1,200 for that.
56  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Describe an Al Franken/Michelle Bachmann voter on: May 11, 2015, 01:05:13 pm
A low-information R-leaning voter who thinks Bachmann only has a bad reputation because of the "liberal media" but votes for Franken because he thinks he's doing a good job, or because he or a close friend or relative was helped out by Franken's constituent services. Probably not more than a few hundred people at most.
57  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Juggalos on: May 10, 2015, 10:22:31 pm
I've read a couple of "embedded journalism" pieces about the Juggalos and their Gathering. I get the impression that they provide a sense of community and family for a lot of people who don't otherwise have one because of various life traumas or disadvantages or just being "different."

Yeah, but writing them off as "white trash" is a lot easier than acknowledging that they're real human beings with emotions and a need to relate to other people.



True, the phenomenon is endlessly fascinating. They're like something out of a dystopian science fiction novel.
58  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Earliest Year Where One of the Following Groups Could Have Been Elected POTUS? on: May 09, 2015, 04:19:02 pm
Roman Catholic- 1948: after the war, Catholic ethnic groups were perceived as fully American by enough people
Mormon- 1960
Jewish- 1960
Muslim- sometime in the 2060s
Buddhist- 2000
Atheist- sometime in the 2100s
Woman- 1980
Unmarried But In Sexual Relationship- 2036
Polygamous- never
Homosexual- 2028
Transsexual- sometime in the late 21st century, but it's such a small minority that it'll probably never happen
Black- 1996 (Colin Powell)
Hispanic- 2008
Asian- 2008
Native American- someone with some Native American ancestry (like 1/8 for example) could have been elected even in the early days of the Republic. Charles Curtis, who was half Native American, might have been able to get elected in the 1930s had Hoover's presidency gone better.
Disabled- depends on the disability, but as many have pointed out, FDR was disabled.
Has Depression- 1789 (in the 18th and 19th centuries, people who would now be thought of as depressed were typically described with terms such as "melancholy", and the stigma was much weaker. Remember also that many people with depression are able to conceal it from all but their closest family and friends)
Has Asperger's- 1789 (it would have been much easier to conceal in the pre-TV era. Also, in those days, people with symptoms now associated with Asperger's were generally thought of as eccentrics - a little odd but not harmful, and certainly not stigmatized to anywhere near the degree it is now)
59  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: More likely future British Prime Minister on: May 09, 2015, 01:42:58 pm
Boris, and it's not even close.
60  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb says that George W. Bush is on of his main Middle East advisors on: May 09, 2015, 12:03:46 pm
This is campaign ending. No Democrat or independent is going to vote for a third term for George W. Bush.

"Currently, 84% of Republicans, 46% of independents, and 24% of Democrats have a favorable view of Bush, each up more than 10 points since 2009. However, the more recent improvement in his ratings, a five-point overall uptick since November 2010, has been more apparent among Democrats, whose rating has increased by 10 points since then."

http://www.mediaite.com/online/poll-americans-now-kinda-okay-with-george-w-bush/
CountryClassSF strategy: throw extraneous information into a discussion until everyone else gives up.

All presidents, even disgraced, unpopular ones like Nixon and Dubya, see their favorability rise after they leave office. Dubya's ratings, and Jeb's along with them, will drop like a rock once the Bush name gets dragged back into politics, especially once his opponents start running attack ads.
61  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Jeb Bush win Oregon and Washington? on: May 08, 2015, 10:28:36 pm
Only if the Democratic nominee absolutely craters, and probably not even then.
62  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb says that George W. Bush is on of his main Middle East advisors on: May 08, 2015, 09:52:54 am
ROFLMAO!!!
63  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Democrats only: What was your worst election night(From 1968 on) on: May 06, 2015, 10:35:39 am
Worst: 2004
Close second: 2014
64  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Whoa, Bushie supports Rand Paul now? on: May 06, 2015, 08:43:44 am
It's basically just old people complaining that the way they teach math now is different from they taught it 40 years ago when they were in school (even though the new way is a much better way to make children actually understand what they're learning).
You're correct that most objections are about math, but there are also people who are angry that the reading components are shifting away from dusty old novels with their symbolism and foreshadowing in favor of understanding and being able to analyse  the validity of non-fiction texts.

PERISH THE THOUGHT!!!!!
65  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Whoa, Bushie supports Rand Paul now? on: May 05, 2015, 08:49:10 pm
Since this is talking about my political leanings and not my personal life, I'll chime in here.  I can see the Christie ship sinking fast, so I had to jump.  It was either Rand Paul or Scott Walker, and I think Paul fits my way of thinking better.

What does a most recent "Oklahoma Democrat" find about Rand that makes him the best fit for you, more so than Walker or Rubio or Bush, or for that matter, Hillary?  What for that matter is similar about Christie's and Paul's ideologies for that matter?

Rand Paul is a social moderate which is what I am.  He's not too conservative.  Hillary is too liberal, plus I think she's a fake.  I don't trust her at all.  She does not connect with ordinary America.  Still, I would vote for her over Jeb Bush who I think is an even bigger fake.  Jeb Bush hates America's children because he supports common core.  Rand Paul is not perfect, but I can get behind him a lot easier.

Roll Eyes riiiight. I oppose common core, but don't you think stating that he hates America's children is...a bit ridiculous?

Okay I can't believe I'm about to defend Jeb Bush, but here goes: could someone please explain to me what's so bad about Common Core? As far as I understand, Common Core is about getting states to agree on common standards for English and Math testing. And even if you believe this approach is misguided, how one earth does supporting Common Core equate to hating children? Someone may not hate children but wrongly believe that Common Core is in their best interests.
66  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is it legal for the Repubs to deny some candidates access to the debate stage? on: May 05, 2015, 11:27:52 am
Perry and Santorum are the ones they'd be happiest not including.

Santorum came in second last time, so they'd have a hard time excluding him.
67  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Would you ever eat fugu? on: May 04, 2015, 10:45:14 am
If I ever visit Japan, I might try it.
68  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How Well you think Carson will do in Iowa? on: May 04, 2015, 09:59:27 am
3-5%, assuming he's still in the race at that point.
69  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: If SCOTUS legalizes SSM... on: April 30, 2015, 02:42:10 pm


Which brings us back to the question of which governor is most likely to stand in a doorway to prevent a gay couple from getting married. I'm starting to think that Brownback actually might.
70  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The 10 most interesting U.S. presidential elections on: April 30, 2015, 02:40:23 pm
1. 1948
2. 1912
3. 2008
4. 1860
5. 1968
6. 1932
7. 1896
8. 1976
9. 1800
10. 1940
71  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How Austrians would have voted in previous Presidential elections on: April 28, 2015, 09:41:26 am
If Austria were somehow actually a state in the U.S., there's no way Obama would be winning with 80%+. I mean really, how many FPO voters would vote for Obama? He would probably win fairly comfortably, don't get me wrong, but the margins found in these polls only make sense if Austria is a foreign country.
72  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WaPo/ABC Poll: 61% support SSM; 1st time more than 6 in 10 support on: April 26, 2015, 03:12:32 pm
But muh backlash...
73  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: If a governor hits 70% approval in poll should they automatically be reelected? on: April 24, 2015, 12:29:59 pm
Absolutely not. Automatic reelection is undemocratic.

What is this poll even about?
74  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which McCain state does Hillary have the best chance of winning? on: April 24, 2015, 08:45:44 am
AZ > GA > MO > AR, though none are very likely.
75  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush's fundraising edge on shaky ground on: April 24, 2015, 08:37:31 am
Without Jeb's fundraising edge, what does he have left?
The name.
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