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51  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democrat wins in 2020. Picks Hillary to be in Administration. Which post? on: December 19, 2016, 11:17:27 am
an easy, cushy job like Ambassador to Australia or New Zealand.
52  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Significant number of Obamacare beneficiaries voted for Trump on: December 16, 2016, 09:48:36 am
What, the peons don't love their 22% ObamaCare increase?

Agreed. Although Obamacare was an improvement over the system that preceded it, the fundamental problem with American healthcare is that costs will continue skyrocketing as long as they can be passed off to third parties. The only long-term solution is fully socialized single-payer healthcare free at the point of service with price controls.
53  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Do we know how white people poor enough to need welfare voted on: December 16, 2016, 09:46:37 am
A key point to remember is that income correlates only loosely with feelings of poverty in the U.S.: someone making $30,000 in rural Oklahoma is probably doing fine, while someone making $30,000 in Manhattan is barely getting by. Another factor is that lower-earning whites are likely to be younger. If memory serves, whites making $50,000 or less voted narrowly for Obama in 2008, and he lost them narrowly in 2012, though he probably still won them outside the South. Hillary Clinton was a uniquely poor candidate for this demographic, and flaws in her campaign strategy doomed her in light of her other flaws.
54  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will Trump grant Julian Assange asylum? on: December 16, 2016, 09:35:22 am
Couldn't Ecuador label him "diplomatic cargo" or something?

They could have done that long ago if it was legit.


How does Assange get from the Ecuadoran embassy to the US embassy?  The moment he leaves the Ecuadoran embassy he'll get picked up by the Brits and sent off to Sweden.

Right.  Why bother with the resulting sh**tstorm with the UK if they try and pull a stunt like that.
Trump is willing to take a call from the President of Taiwan, breaking with decades of China policy for no obvious gain. A diplomatic sh[inks]storm with the UK won't bother him in the slightest.
55  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How is Bernie "too old"? on: December 15, 2016, 10:24:00 pm
Age was somewhat of an issue when John McCain ran in 2008 (he was 72 at the time) but it didn't have much of an impact. It was a much bigger issue when Bob Dole ran in 1996, yet Dole is still alive and apparently still doing the bidding of the Taiwan Lobby. McCain is still alive and in good health, as is his Mom at the age of 104!!!

As long as Sanders's health holds up, the fact that Sanders will be 79 on election day 2020 won't be so much of an issue in and of itself as the fact that he'll be 83 in 2024 and 87 at the end of his potential second term in 2028. Now of course Trump is only four years younger than him and in worse health.
56  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How exactly can Kanye West win the Democratic nomination? on: December 14, 2016, 10:06:52 pm
The day after Kanye meets with Trump, stories come out suggesting that he's a LITERAL CUCK: http://hollywoodlife.com/2016/12/11/marquette-king-response-kim-kardashian-relationship-rumors-twitter/
57  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL, MT-Sen: Trump picks Zinke as Sec. of Interior on: December 14, 2016, 01:26:45 pm
Perfect opportunity for nazi "think tank President" and future President Richard Spencer to launch his electoral career.
He'll lose. David Duke only got 3% in the LA Senate Jungle Primary, and Duke is much better-known and LA has a much longer history of racial tension to exploit. Open White Supremacy and Neo-Nazism still has a very small market.
58  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How exactly can Kanye West win the Democratic nomination? on: December 13, 2016, 03:30:07 pm
Oh sh[inks] he's gonna be the Ralph Nader of 2020 isn't he? Angry
59  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How exactly can Kanye West win the Democratic nomination? on: December 13, 2016, 10:28:29 am
Relevant:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/donald-trump-administration/2016/12/kanye-arrives-at-trump-tower-232563.

If Kanye runs, it'll be as a spoiler independent.
60  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How exactly can Kanye West win the Democratic nomination? on: December 12, 2016, 03:32:32 pm
And why would he win the Plains and Mountain States? And how would he win VA? Who in NOVA would vote for him?
61  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How exactly can Kanye West win the Democratic nomination? on: December 12, 2016, 02:07:22 pm
He could somehow win black voters and urban white voters? But if you'd asked the same thing about Donald Trump in late 2012, what would any of us had said?

It all depends on context

So you are literally just saying "but Trump" and "blacks/Millennials", without addressing any of the counterpoints to that.

Also how does he win Iowa or New Hampshire that way?

Winning Iowa or New Hampshire isn't necessarily needed.

Hillary won IA by 4 "delegate-equivalents", but the media narrative was all about a bunch of coin tosses that may or may not have determined the winner, how much the state hated Hillary, how weak she was, and about how it was really a tie - so it doesn't really count as a win. She then proceeded to get squashed in New Hampshire. But no worry - she had the minority vote. NV gave her a mild scare because of negative momentum post-NH, but after that she was able to run through the south, winning by landslides across the region. Bernie never recovered.

Bill Clinton lost both IA and NH in the 1992 primaries. But no worry, he had the south behind him, and won the nomination that way.

My point: IA and NH are overrated in the democratic primaries.



I know most of you think Kanye is going to win SC by getting 90%+ of the Black vote in SC, and then ride that wave to the nomination, but I just don't see that happening: Kanye likely won't even be the only Black candidate running, and I have a hard time seeing him getting the Black Church Establishment behind him even if he is. This is the real key to winning the Southern Black Vote, not being Black: look at Al Sharpton's 2004 performance.
62  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Generation Z on: December 12, 2016, 09:23:27 am
In some ways, having the Alt-Right actually having to have their man govern the country, especially when he is so manifestly unqualified to do so, rather than allowing the movement to fester online for 4-8 more years, may have averted much worse consequences down the road.

It's funny and amusing to watch Trump troll the establishment. Having to actually run the country will be entirely different.
63  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: is Georgia polarizing on metro-outstate lines? on: December 08, 2016, 12:47:28 pm
Forsyth County, which is pretty much Atlas's archetype of Exurban Sprawl McMansion Hell swung to Hillary by quite a bit, which surprised me.

Looking at the Georgia Swing Map, it looks like there were a fair number of rural whites (in GEORGIA) who voted for the Kenyan Marxist Muslim but not for Crooked Hillary. Overall, downstate rural GA swung pretty hard against her, and the decline in Black Turnout explains some but not all of this. For example, Brantley County, GA is 94% white, voted 82% for Romney in 2012 and 88% for Trump in 2016.

The challenge for Democrats is finding a candidate who doesn't cause a total collapse in the rural white vote, motivates Blacks to turn out, and is still able to do reasonably well in the suburbs.
64  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Would Kanye West have a greater effect on 2020 if he runs as Dem or independent? on: December 08, 2016, 12:29:21 pm
Allow me to be brutally honest here for a moment. Kanye is not going to win the Black vote in the Democratic Primary:

1) Black millennials, the segment of the African-American Community most likely to know who West is and care what he has to say, have absolutely terrible turnout.
2) Older Black voters, particularly older Black women, are the ones who actually vote in Democratic primaries
3) The fact that Kanye is married to a White Woman and lives with a rich White Family in LA is not going to be viewed positively by much of the Black Community, especially the older women who are most likely to actually vote.
65  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Anyone know what happened in DC? on: December 08, 2016, 10:17:33 am
White people in DC are overwhelmingly SWPL types, and the city has no White Working Class to speak of.
66  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Would Kanye West have a greater effect on 2020 if he runs as Dem or independent? on: December 06, 2016, 11:21:17 am
I think most liberals are misunderstanding the reason for the rise of Trump and his success. Trump, say what you will about him, at least had a consistent message that resonated with the electorate: "The system is rigged, the elites are not on your side, but I am and I alone can fix it." What's Kanye's message going to be?
67  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What will be Trump's campaign slogan in 2020? on: December 04, 2016, 06:07:58 pm
One Nation, One People, One Leader
68  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Does Curt Schilling even has a chance? on: December 02, 2016, 10:42:16 am


Yes, he could obviously win a Senate election in Massachusetts. Come on.
69  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Southeast and Southwest democrats strategy on: December 01, 2016, 04:14:33 pm
The demographics to win AZ and GA, or even NC, aren't there yet and won't be for at least another 8-12 years. Meanwhile, the Midwest votes mainly on economics rather than on identity and cultural issues is therefore vulnerable to large swings. It's there that we'll have to rebuild.
70  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2020 Democratic Nomination Poll (November 2016) on: December 01, 2016, 12:29:08 pm
If Sanders runs, he has my support at this point, provided his health holds up. I hate to say it, but I don't think America is ready for a Female president. Yes, Clinton had appalling personal negatives, but these were compounded and amplified by the fact that she's a woman, and received additional scrutiny and backlash that a male candidate with a similar record would not have received. I expect things to be different in 20 years, but the 2020 nominee should be male.
71  General Discussion / History / Re: Why did the women use to cover their bodies before 1920? on: December 01, 2016, 11:10:38 am
and is all the cleavage at the Renn Faire as historically inaccurate as most everything else there?

There was quite a bit of décolletage in many medieval and Renaissance styles, and outright bared breasts in some periods and places, but when present such fashions tended to involve square necklines.
For some reason everyone assumes that for the entire history of Western Civilization from roughly the Fall of the Roman Empire up until the 1920s or so, it was just as prude as it had been during Victorian Times, which of course was not the case.
72  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Uncle Joe Biden have beaten Trump? on: November 22, 2016, 12:27:08 am
Maybe, but it sure looks like Teflon Trump was the #inevitable one.
He won a razor-thin victory in the EC while losing the popular vote. In no way was the result inevitable.
73  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Uncle Joe Biden have beaten Trump? on: November 18, 2016, 11:47:17 am
Biden/Sanders would have been the ideal ticket: yes, two old white men, but this matters a lot less than people think. Biden doesn't have any of Clinton's overwhelming personal negatives. He never forgot where he came from and knows how to talk to the white working class, and though the establishments of both parties like to call him a gaffe machine, to working class voters of all races, it makes him look more genuine if he says what he's really thinking.

An added benefit is that while Clinton wasn't able to go after Trump on "Grab 'em by the P[inks]y" because of Bill's past behavior, Biden, who's been at the forefront of fighting rape culture, would be much more credible here, despite being a man. This again matters less than Beltway Democratic Strategists think.
74  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic candidates with personality cult potential? on: November 18, 2016, 10:53:16 am
Sanders already has one. Warren also to a lesser degree.
75  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump even make it into the White House? on: November 18, 2016, 10:51:51 am
Of course he will, don't be silly. Whether he finishes his term or runs in 2020 is still an open question.
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