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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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51  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What % will Cruz get in New York? on: April 07, 2016, 04:37:16 pm
I think he can get 30. Polls consistently underestimate Cruz by about 5 or so.

There are few Evangelicals or Movement Conservatives in NY though. The combination of dying white factory towns upstate, Trump's longstanding ties to the state, and lack of evangelicals, and the fact that the state isn't particularly religious in general, mean that it's pretty much the perfect state for him. My guess is that Cruz will probably get 25% or so.
52  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Joe Miller running for President, Constitution Party on: April 07, 2016, 03:37:26 pm
YYYYYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We have our Far-Right Conservative Protest Vote 3rd Party Ticket if Trump gets the nomination!!!!!!
53  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Trump doesn't win the Republican nomination, does he run a write-in campaign? on: April 07, 2016, 11:21:58 am
i dont know what "write-in" means.

54  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: George Mason University to Rename Law School after Antonin Scalia on: April 07, 2016, 10:01:50 am
Grosly overrated . wait a decade and Scalia will be see n as little more influential to American jurisprudence than most other justices who served for that long.
There's also a real risk that in 20 years or so, Scalia will be viewed as a George Wallace-type figure. Just wait until the Oscar-bait Obergfell movie comes out and Scalia is featured as the main villain.
55  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Predict how many seats the Democrats will pick up in 2016 (April 2016) on: April 07, 2016, 09:33:39 am
Not going to make any predictions until we know just how bad a sh[inks]show the GOP convention is going to be.
56  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Trump doesn't win the Republican nomination, does he run a write-in campaign? on: April 07, 2016, 08:23:01 am
No, because Trump isn't stupid. He's a dealmaker. He knows he can't win a write-in campaign. So he'll use his leverage to extract as much as he can out of the GOP establishment.

This.

But what does he actually want out of the GOP Establishment? He certainly doesn't strike me as the type who would want to be VP, and changes to the Platform are effectively meaningless because the only people who pay attention to platforms nowadays are Atlas-type political nerds (well, and also Republican political operatives, if they think they can gain political mileage if the Democratic platform fails to mention Culture War Totems like God, Jerusalem, or prayer, but even those attacks don't tend to gain much traction). There's also the fact that Trump has gone scorched earth against Cruz and I don't see either of them making up at the convention.

The same things he has been chasing all his life - money and power. Trump is the ultimate insider and even though he can take things personally at times, imagining a scenario where he p.sses against the wind and puts Trump Corp at risk is impossible.

Trump Corp won't be at risk no matter what. He's famously litigious and will fight any future harassment from a Cruz administration or a Republican congress as much as he can. He's also incredibly thin-skinned and prides himself in never backing down from a fight. When all is said and done, either he'll be the nominee, or he'll storm out of the convention and his supporters will riot.
57  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Trump doesn't win the Republican nomination, does he run a write-in campaign? on: April 07, 2016, 08:10:37 am
No, because Trump isn't stupid. He's a dealmaker. He knows he can't win a write-in campaign. So he'll use his leverage to extract as much as he can out of the GOP establishment.

This.

But what does he actually want out of the GOP Establishment? He certainly doesn't strike me as the type who would want to be VP, and changes to the Platform are effectively meaningless because the only people who pay attention to platforms nowadays are Atlas-type political nerds (well, and also Republican political operatives, if they think they can gain political mileage if the Democratic platform fails to mention Culture War Totems like God, Jerusalem, or prayer, but even those attacks don't tend to gain much traction). There's also the fact that Trump has gone scorched earth against Cruz and I don't see either of them making up at the convention.
58  About this Site / How To / Re: petition to rename a board after Scalia on: April 07, 2016, 07:48:58 am
There's already going to be Antonin Scalia School of Law (ASSoL)

In response to widespread ridicule, the name has been changed to Antonin Scalia Law School (ASLS).
59  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Mississippi House Passes Religious Freedom Bill on: April 06, 2016, 09:34:35 pm
This should be JCL's theme song:

Quote
I fail to see a reason why in this day and time we're forced to talk about this
Following twisted lies, religious genocide, it's fundamentalism
No spirituality, this is the death of me
Why can't you see?

What book are you reading, that taught you to hate this strong?
"Don't give into the lies, just open up your eyes, it's written plain and simple"
I think you missed the point all along

Truth is not truth
Words are twisted, eyes are shifted, perspective
You get to choose
Only you decide what's right for you

I'll say it loud you won't forget
Don't preach your fine print to me

Justifying your hate with the Cross
It's sickening the souls your crusades cost
I'm no further along in my search for truth
I just want you to know that there is no King behind you

Tolerance isn't hate
Haven't you ever heard of a thing called grace?
I'll say it loud you're such a bigot!
I'll say it loud you'll never forget!

Here's the song I've been listening to while reading this thread. It would fit as well, though it would have been even better as Marco Rubio's Campaign Song:


Quote
I am the God of F[inks]

I am the God of F[inks]

Virgins sold in quantity
Herded by heredity
Redneck burn out
Mid-west mind
Who said date rape isn't kind?

Porno nation evaluation
What's this, time for segregation?
Libido, libido fascination
Too much oral defecation

White trash get down on your knees

Time for cake and sodomy

VCR's and vaseline
TV-f[inks]ed by plastic queens
Cash in hand and d[inks] on screen,
Who said God was ever clean?

Bible Belt 'round Anglo Waste
Putting sinners in their place
Yeah, right, great if you're so good
Explain the sh[iniks] stains on your face

White trash get down on your knees

Time for cake and sodomy
60  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton, a Russian favorite on: April 06, 2016, 12:17:37 pm
egalitt, which Russian troll farm do you work at?

http://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/documents-show-how-russias-troll-army-hit-america#.xq1BdBel1.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Web_brigades.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/2015/06/02/russian_039troll039_farm_wreaking_havoc_in_us_358311.html.
61  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Roger Stone the greatest political troll of our time? on: April 06, 2016, 11:24:02 am
Do we have any way of knowing if the Roger Stone on AAD is in fact the real Roger Stone, or if he's just an imposter?
62  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How many convention ballots will it take to elect a GOP nominee? on: April 05, 2016, 11:41:42 am
I'm increasingly thinking that Cruz will win on the 2nd Ballot. Trump will get the most on the 1st Ballot, but still fall short of a majority.
63  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: College Students Are Ridiculously Infuriating Safe-Space/Mega-thread on: April 05, 2016, 09:55:16 am
Princeton will not rename the Woodrow Wilson School.
64  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Would Hillary be better to ignore Trump on: April 05, 2016, 09:00:21 am
I think it's better for her to pick on Trump.

More media coverage makes it likelier that Trump is the nominee, and that would be great for Hillary.

I really want to hear your case for Cruz having a better chance than Trump.  Unless, that is, you think the convention will pick a 3rd person who is more electable?

I think the case is pretty simple.  Most polls show Cruz as more electable than Trump.  At the very least, Cruz won't risk losing Utah and will lessen the chance of losing Arizona thanks to Mormons' utter hatred of Trump.  Apart from that, Cruz probably won't draw as many opposition votes as Trump would.

Cruz is polling as well as he is because Trump is taking up virtually all of the media coverage, and virtually the only coverage that Cruz gets is "Not Trump", which makes him look reserved and moderate by comparison. I continue to believe that he's actually much weaker than Trump in a general election (though I don't think either has a very good chance of winning) because he lacks Trump's appeal to working class white Democrats, and his views on social issues, which are far out of the mainstream, will turn off suburban moderates, though perhaps not to the same degree that Trump will.
65  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: If Obama were running for a third term right now... on: April 04, 2016, 08:58:37 am
He'd have a 20 point lead over Trump in the polls and a 10-15 point lead over Cruz, and would be cruising towards a 3rd Term. He'd likely be facing an ineffective, Kucinich-esque primary challenge, but would have easily overcome it. Oh, how I wish he could run for a 3rd Term. And a 4th. And a 5th.
66  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Obama visits memorial in Argentina for victims of "dirty war", apologizes on: April 01, 2016, 07:02:28 pm
Good. Long-overdue, but better late than never.
67  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The bonds of love are stronger between which couple? on: April 01, 2016, 12:21:42 pm
I doubt that either Donald or Melania genuinely "love" each other. I think Bill loves Hillary as a person, I'm not sure how Hillary feels about Bill at all though.

Come to think of it, I'm pretty sure both relationships are largely transactional.
68  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New York counties on 4/19 on: April 01, 2016, 12:20:17 pm
Does anyone think Kasich might have a chance of winning Nassau or Suffolk? They both seem to have a lot of those awful "fiscally conservative but socially liberal" Republicans who would support a candidate like him, plus also they seem to have a fair number of Jewish Republicans who'd be turned off by Trump supporters doing Nazi salutes at his rallies (I suspect the Israel-Firsters will support Cruz, but the Super-Rich might vote Kasich).
69  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which state is more likely to vote GOP in '16: PA or VA on: April 01, 2016, 08:23:37 am
I think Cruz would be slightly more likely to win VA than PA, but it's close. Hmmm... my gut tells me PA, my mind tells me VA. 

Cruz will get blown out as badly as Trump in NOVA because of his role in the shutdown, and he won't be able to make up by appealing to working class whites in the rest of the state. He's also a very weak candidate for PA, but I still give him a *slightly* better chance there.
70  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump picked a terrible time to have his worst week of the [POTUS race] on: April 01, 2016, 08:21:35 am
The problem is that things that would doom another candidate don't seem to hurt Trump at all, and if anything seem to make him stronger. Let's wait for the Wisconsin results before we draw any conclusions. And even with all of this, Trump is still heavily favored to win New York & California.
71  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The bonds of love are stronger between which couple? on: April 01, 2016, 08:18:39 am
Obviously option 2 *shudders*
72  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How the SCOTUS battle could escalate in 2017 on: March 31, 2016, 10:37:43 am
On a related note: if Garland still hasn't been given an up or down vote by Jan. 20, 2017 (which he probably won't be), will Republicans continue to refuse to consider his nomination on the basis that it was made by Obama in the final year of his 2nd term, or will they drop this silly charade?
73  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: TRUMP: "There has to be some form of punishment" for women who have abortions on: March 31, 2016, 08:45:38 am
I know this has been said many times throughout the course of this long primary campaign, but if Trump is going to lose, then this will be the week it was realized.

Nah, he already walked back his position, so it's fine, and maddeningly, the media doesn't hold Trump accountable for his flip-flops the way that they do for a normal politician. The StormTrumpers will have any seed of doubt that might have been planted in their minds removed, and the media will drop it. This won't hurt him in the slightest, and if anything it'll help.
74  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Visa waiver threat on: March 30, 2016, 02:03:14 pm
Who would even want a Syrian passport, especially since they're apparently worthless, if the OP is to be believed? And anyway, passports are only good for identification (not for entry) if they don't have a visa in them. Why not just show up in Europe and say that you're fleeing from Syria?

But anyway, the terrorist threat from refugees is vastly overstated. American and European citizens becoming radicalized over the Internet or byof deviant clerics who preach violence and hatred is a far greater threat.
75  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What are some examples in state laws of "horseshoe theory"? on: March 30, 2016, 01:59:13 pm
This year, California changed its laws to mandate vaccination for ALL children who enroll in public school regardless of religious or philosophical "objections", which will enter into effect in July. Prior to this, the only states that didn't allow religious or philosophical exemptions were Mississippi and West Virginia.
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