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May 23, 2017, 03:47:34 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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51  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Zogby Analytics national poll*: Winfrey 46% Trump 36% on: April 01, 2017, 10:29:39 am
He's not calling himself JZ Analytics anymore? Sad
52  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: House GOP wants to give Obamacare repeal another try next week on: March 30, 2017, 10:28:11 am
Any second bill is not clearing the Senate if the subsidies are radically altered or Medicaid is touched.

On the one hand it would roll back medicaid and destroy the insurance market and the exchanges, meaning 24 million or so people would lose their insurance and even people on employer plans would receive substantially worse insurance, but on the other hand it would lead to a Democratic Mega-Wave, meaning a Super-Majority in the House with Ryan, Nunez, and possibly even Chaffetz losing their seats.
53  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What was Gary Johnson's appeal ? on: March 29, 2017, 12:23:50 pm
Yes, pretty much generic protest vote candidate. The fact that he had an extremely generic name and at least one view that everyone agreed with helped.
54  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: March 28, 2017, 11:13:56 am
Story being reported in the Billings Gazette and the Missoulian about Quist's financial situation

Unclear how this will play out, since Quist seems fairly unapologetic and up front about having money struggles.

If Trump repeatedly refusing to pay his contractors wasn't an issue last year, I can't see attacks based in part on someone's medical debt resonating.  If anything, it would reinforce the Romney-like stereotype Gianforte needs to get away from.  If there is eventually financial fraud at the bottom of this, that would be a different story, but for the time being this could easily backfire.

This is the kind of story that clueless upper middle class beltway hack consultants often think is a gotcha, but which often backfires because it humanizes a candidate to voters who are facing similar struggles. If Quist loses, it won't be because of this.
55  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Does Trump have will or leverage for Medicare for All? on: March 28, 2017, 10:58:08 am
He doesn't have the will, and he has less leverage than any other modern president except possibly Carter.
56  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: BREAKING: Trump claims Obama wire tapped Trump Tower. on: March 28, 2017, 10:55:03 am
There's clearly something there. Otherwise they wouldn't be acting guilty as hell.
57  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump Admin Sought to Stop Sally Yates From Testifying on: March 28, 2017, 10:53:48 am
I know Trumpers are far gone but can the far left Glenn Greenwald/Berniebro crowd finally admit this is a scandal?

Greenwald won't because something something "MUH US IMPERIALISM" something something "Enemy of my Enemy is my friend". TYT types might eventually catch on to the fact that there's something there and this will bring down Trump, or at the very make it impossible for him to govern.
58  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Neil Gorsuch Confirmation Hearing *DISCUSSION AND LIVE COMMENTARY* on: March 23, 2017, 09:29:15 pm
I hate to say it but the Filibuster has to go at some point for the Republic to continue to function. This was my position when the Dems were in the majority and it continues to be my position now. It may just be better to just get rid of it now and let the GOP take the consequences if there are any (there probably won't be because hardly anyone cares about procedure outside of ultra-partisan hacks and political nerds like us.
59  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6? Can Democrat Jon Ossoff win in the special election? on: March 23, 2017, 06:32:36 pm

That article also says the Congressional Leadership Fund (R) polling shows:

-Ossoff leading with 37%
-Ossoff favorability 41/30 (+11)
-Trump favorability (+6)
-Pelosi favorability 25/66 (-41)

This is why Pelosi should have gone a long time ago, even today she still polls worse than Paul Ryan and she hasn't had the Speakership in 7 years. I do think she motivates Rs and continues to be an effective bogeyman for them.

Yeah it's pretty mind-boggling that she's STILL the minority leader after all these years. Though probably that's because nobody else really wants the job, same as with Ryan.
60  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie Kasich voters on: March 22, 2017, 11:46:02 am
- College Towns
- White Liberal Areas
- A bunch of counties in Ohio
61  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Donald Trump will resign 'soon', says top Democrat Dianne Feinstein on: March 22, 2017, 10:54:39 am
We ought to take to the streets if the unelected Pence even looks at the keys. Our scariest days could be upon us.

Let's just hope he declines to run for re-election

Pence at least seems to believe in Democracy and the Constitution, and is anti-Russian which is a plus in the current environment. Also, he'll be hobbled by what are likely to be low approval ratings and a divided Republican Party. I'd much rather have Pence signing a bunch of theocratic executive orders than having Trump constantly throwing Twitter Tantrums that undermine the judiciary, good governance, the economy, and decades of foreign policy.
62  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: AHCA Whip Count on: March 22, 2017, 10:50:40 am
They will be silly to put this to a vote. Its so doomed to fail.

Yes but watching it come up just short is going to be GLORIOUS
63  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Neil Gorsuch: 'employers should ask women if they want children' on: March 22, 2017, 10:28:05 am
Easy way to destroy the fertility rate

Would be some silver lining imo

Yes indeed for all the talk of a "Culture of Life" and "Someone Else's Babies", Republicans sure do make it difficult to have and raise children.
64  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Tillerson: "Strategic patience" ended with DPRK, military action on table on: March 17, 2017, 12:45:08 pm

hopefully this is just (lol) superbrinkmanship to get China to bend. Because otherwise...

(also likely Pres Moon might make military plans fairly difficult, but the GOP very rarely cares about niceties like that)

yeah but if sh*t really hits the fan, good luck occupying North Korea without the South Korean Army.
65  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Donald Trump refuses to shake Angela Merkel's hand, makes mean faces at her on: March 17, 2017, 12:44:09 pm
He looks like a five-year-old in time-out! She must have given him a real good schooling behind the scenes!
66  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Why are parties with "Freedom" in their names always extreme authoritarians? on: March 16, 2017, 02:43:01 pm
For the same reason that the Ministries in 1984 had their names.
67  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: US states consider laws allowing Creationism to be taught by science teachers on: March 16, 2017, 02:37:02 pm
How about teaching both viewpoints? Or teaching evolution and atleast mentioning the ideas of creationism?

68  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Did Hillary Clinton do anything right on: March 16, 2017, 02:33:22 pm
Her anti alt-right speech was good. While her fainting on 9/11 was bad, I respect that she came into work even though she was sick and persevered(to excess in this case (, Hillary wouldn't pull a sick day on you.

TBH I don't think it was very effective: most Americans didn't (and still don't) know what the Alt-Right is, and it was a mistake to put so much focus on such a fringe group of his supporters (though the Alt-Right certainly has outsized influence both in terms of their access to Trump and their role in online content creation) not only gave them more exposure, but because it also meant that she couldn't tie Trump to the deeply unpopular Obama-era Republican party, which had even lower favorable ratings than Trump himself. Of course, she was doing this to try to drive a wedge between moderately conservative GOP suburbanites and Trump voters, but when her campaign repeatedly said that Trump wasn't a typical Republican, voters got the message: the problem was that the wrong voters got the wrong message, voting for Trump because they thought he wouldn't implement unpopular typical Republican policies.

All of this made it easier for Trump to run as an outsider, and a lot of voters who didn't agree with Trump on major issues ended up voting for him because they thought he would shake things up or because they liked his rhetoric about draining the swamp.
69  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New data suggests Hillary won white male/female millennials. on: March 14, 2017, 02:05:50 pm
I think the whole "Generation Z are Neo-Nazis" notion seem only applicable to young white boys. Most young people are apathetic or not very interested about politics in my own experience, so those 4chan and /thedonald users are probably very much a vocal minority.

Yes, remember that if Youtube Comments and 4Chan were your sole sources of information on the 2008 election, it would have seemed like Ron Paul was on track to win in a landslide, and the Alt-Right is popular among basically the same demographics Paul was.
70  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Did Hillary Clinton do anything right on: March 14, 2017, 09:38:56 am
Her strategy was terrible but she made many good tactical moves. Bringing out Khizr and Ghazala Khan at the DNC was one of the most brilliant acts of political theater I've ever seen. She also took debate prep seriously: Trump had been moving into the lead before the debates and she got a big bounce out of the first one in particular. And keep in mind that expectations for Trump were very, very low, but the debates were still seen as victories for her.
71  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NY GOV 2018: Preet Bharara for governor? on: March 14, 2017, 09:01:12 am
72  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Michael Bloomberg electable nationally? on: March 13, 2017, 12:37:11 pm
I could imagine that in a 2016 Timeline where Sanders gets the Democratic nomination, Bloomberg runs a Third Party Candidacy in which he spends $1.5 billion or so and ends up with around 3% of the PV. He gets heavily attacked by both Sanders and Trump as a tool of Wall Street. His campaign targets NJ and CT the way McMullin targeted Utah, and ends up getting about 10% in each. In 2020 he'll be old news, so he'd do even worse.
73  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Steve King openly promoting white supremacy on: March 13, 2017, 12:28:50 pm
there's a difference between quoting Spencer, Taylor and the like - and just saying garden variety nationalist stuff that Bannon or Coulter have been saying for years.

Yeah but saying he wants a society where people "basically all look the same" or w/e is rapidly approaching Spencer Territory.
74  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Michael Bloomberg electable nationally? on: March 12, 2017, 12:12:37 pm
No. he holds pretty much the worst possible combination of views to win a national election.
75  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Fox: WikiLeaks releases huge archive of secret CIA documents and hacking tools on: March 07, 2017, 10:40:09 am

WikiLeaks on Tuesday released what it said is the full hacking capacity of the CIA in a stunning 8,000-plus page disclosure the anti-secrecy website contends is “the largest ever publication of confidential documents on the agency.”

The 8,761 documents and files -- released as “Vault 7 Part 1” and titled “Year Zero” -- were obtained from an “isolated, high-security network” at the CIA’s Center for Cyber Intelligence in Langley, Va., a press release from the website said. The trove had been “circulated among former U.S. government hackers and contractors,” one of whom “recently” gave the archive to WikiLeaks.

“We do not comment on the authenticity or content of purported intelligence documents," a CIA spokesperson told Fox News.

The collection of purported intelligence tools includes information on CIA-developed malware -- bearing names such as “Assassin” and “Medusa” -- intended to target iPhones, Android phones, smart TVs and Microsoft, Mac and Linux operating systems, among others. An entire unit in the CIA is devoted to inventing programs to hack data from Apple products, according to WikiLeaks.

WikiLeaks said its source released the files because they believed questions surrounding the CIA’s reach “urgently need to be debated in public,” echoing the motives of many previous leakers.

Some of the files include redacted information, such as tens “of thousands of CIA targets and attack machines throughout Latin America, Europe and the United States.”

I have to admit, even as someone who generally favors disclosure of overreaching digital surveillance programs, releasing actual hacking tools and what I imagine are also zero day exploits is extremely inappropriate and dangerous. Hopefully whatever was released is not everything needed to implement each of the pieces of malware because analyses of the US Intel Community's malware suites have shown significant sophistication and would make them arguably the most powerful spying platforms in the world. It's hard to say how reckless such a public release would be.

At this point, Ecuadorian government should be pressured with harsh economic sanctions (among other things, maybe threatening to add them to the list of state sponsors of terrorism) to turn over Assange to the CIA.  He's clearly a serious threat to America's national security at this point.  I don't care whether he's a Trump shill or not, but he's clearly a Russian agent or ally who has done serious damage to our nation's security and will inevitably put American lives in danger if he hasn't already (I'm sure he has, but admittedly don't know enough to say for sure).  It's really a shame b/c there is a very real need for a good-faith version of Wikileaks and for a while, Assange was releasing information the public truly needed to know (although even then, he was a fugitive from justice and all-around creep). 

Too bad Trump isn't going to do sh[inks] to the guy who basically won the election for him, especially since Assange/Wikileaks/FSB doubtless have tons of Kompromat on him that they can dump if he or his administration try to do anything.
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