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February 20, 2017, 10:05:07 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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51  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Biggest 2020 Factor? Who controls the House on: January 11, 2017, 04:31:23 pm
The biggest factor will be whether Trump can hold onto his promises, and if the Democrats can appeal to Working Class Whites again. I would think that that the Republicans will still have the house in 2020, but their margin would be reduced, probably 200-235, to 210-225

If they can do that, they'll gain 40-60 seats, not just 10. Dems need to gain 23 seats to take the House: tough with all the gerrymaders but doable if Trump is enough of a disaster.
52  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: It's possible that Republicans could keep the White House until 2036 or 2040 on: January 11, 2017, 04:10:29 pm
People are reading WAY too much into Trump's win. They are forgetting how remarkably fragile his wins were across the swing states, and are acting as if the Midwest has a decidedly red tint. Some states, sure. But remember, Trump largely won because his opponent was the caricature of an out of touch politician from the Capitol District in Hunger Games. And D's held the Presidency for two terms.

He has a 37% approval rating as of today, and he hasn't even taken office yet. If anything, this shows that 2020 should be the Dems' race to lose assuming they don't screw it up again. So enough of this permanent majority nonsense that both sides seem to be spewing (D's with the ZOMG!1!1 Texas will flip!!!)

The worrying thing is that he got huge swings in rural areas, not just in swing states but pretty much everywhere.
53  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Two Counties Gave HRC her ENTIRE PV Plurality on: January 11, 2017, 03:57:52 pm
The idea that the EC serves to "protect" rural areas against big cities doesn't really hold water. It slightly exaggerates the voting power of smaller states, which are usually more rural, but its main effect by far is to massively increase the voting power of people in swing states. Rural Texans or Kansans have much less influence than urban Denverites or Philadelphians.

The argument that it prevents small states from being neglected is pretty bogus also: the candidates spend plenty of time and money campaigning in NH, but almost none in WY, ND, or SD.
54  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Do you have any regrets? on: January 11, 2017, 10:49:35 am
I voted for Kasich in the GOP Primary to try to stop Trump and force a brokered convention. I should have gone with my gut and voted in the Dem Primary for Bernie. Last time I try to do something like that.
55  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump Cabinet confirmation hearings **live commentary thread** on: January 11, 2017, 10:30:57 am
Rubio's asking Tillerson questions like "Is Vladimir Putin a war criminal?"

His whole line of questioning on Russia doesn't make it sound like he's that keen to vote in favor of confirmation.


Yeah Rubio sounds like a "no" vote. He's going after Tillerson much more harshly than the Dems did.
56  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do more hipster Christians than Catholics read Vox regularly? on: January 10, 2017, 03:05:48 pm
There are plenty of liberal "Catholics" who completely swamp hipster Protestants in pure numbers, so probably not.

I've never read a single positive thing about Catholicism in Vox. And I read it a lot.

I'm not sure I've ever read a single positive thing about Catholicism from a liberal "Catholic" either. Wink

But how many "liberal Catholics" are in Vox's demographic?

Ones who are nominally Catholic but not practicing, or who only go to church on Christmas and Easter? Probably quite a few.
57  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Which country has the best and worst Green Party? on: January 10, 2017, 02:28:44 pm
The US Green Party exists solely to win elections for the GOP, so it.
58  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: It's possible that Republicans could keep the White House until 2036 or 2040 on: January 10, 2017, 10:46:08 am
Of course it's "possible" it's just very, very unlikely: eventually there will be a recession, botched war, or scandal, and the Democrats will come back into power.
59  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Jared Kushner's Rise to Unimaginable Power on: January 09, 2017, 08:24:49 pm
Kushner is a Democrat so I'm slightly ok with this

The way I understand it

he was a Democrat

he is now a Republican

Even if he was, he was probably one of those awful "socially liberal by fiscally conservative" West Ukrainian Democrats who only hold progressive social views for the wrong reasons,  ie to show how much more enlightened he is than those stupid hicks in flyover country.
60  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Biggest 2020 Factor? Who controls the House on: January 09, 2017, 12:21:10 pm
In 2018, Dems might want to be careful what they wish for. If they were to take back the House, Trump could rail against them as his roadblock to making America great. Conversely, Republicans retaining the House in 2018 could be bad for his reelection if he has 4 years of total governmental control and nothing to show for it. What do you guys think?

Prediction: If America isn't "great" within 3 months of Trump taking office, his mob will turn on him. Trump will also have a major foreign policy failure, natural disaster that gets bungled, and/or personal scandal within his first year. On January 1, 2018, his approval ratings will be in the high 20s. Democrats will re-take the house and "Keeping America Great" won't fly in 2020. Remember that "but he's not Hillary" won't work because the election is now over and he won't be facing her next time.
His herd believes anything he says, or they simply don't care. His narcissism may wear thin over time, but I'm skeptical of him dropping into the 20's or low 30's simply because his base is that rabid. On your last point, if you don't think he'll try to make the next D nominee as unpopular as Hillary, you're in for a ride.
Trump's schtick will get old: it already has for many, as evidenced by the fact that his favorables continue to be so low. Of course he'll try to make the next D nominee as unpopular as Hillary, but the Republican base had been conditioned to hate her for over 20 years, and her personal mannerisms, speaking style, and behavior didn't do her any favors.
61  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Noticed that Trump got the same exact percentage in Arkansas as Romney did on: January 08, 2017, 11:50:47 pm
Fun fact #1: Trump got a lower percentage of the nationwide PV than Romney got.
Fun fact #2: Romney got 47% of the PV
62  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sooooo. What lessons did Democrats learn from 2016 that they can apply in 2020? on: January 08, 2017, 11:31:49 pm
Nominating a "Centerist" is actually dumb because:

1) The progressive base won't be excited: you absolutely NEED these people to go door-to-door and phonebank hours for you for free.
2) Swing voters actually don't like it because they view it as weak and wishy-washy
3) Centerists tend to emphasize the wrong issues, which puts off both progressives/leftists and moderates
63  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Biggest 2020 Factor? Who controls the House on: January 08, 2017, 11:26:55 pm
In 2018, Dems might want to be careful what they wish for. If they were to take back the House, Trump could rail against them as his roadblock to making America great. Conversely, Republicans retaining the House in 2018 could be bad for his reelection if he has 4 years of total governmental control and nothing to show for it. What do you guys think?

Prediction: If America isn't "great" within 3 months of Trump taking office, his mob will turn on him. Trump will also have a major foreign policy failure, natural disaster that gets bungled, and/or personal scandal within his first year. On January 1, 2018, his approval ratings will be in the high 20s. Democrats will re-take the house and "Keeping America Great" won't fly in 2020. Remember that "but he's not Hillary" won't work because the election is now over and he won't be facing her next time.
64  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Can Trump please kick Lindsey Graham upstairs already? on: January 08, 2017, 01:38:29 pm
He's totally correct: if a foreign power had intervened to help Clinton you'd be outraged, and the next time a foreign adversary puts their finger on the scale of a US election, they might not do so in your party's favor.
65  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MA-SEN: Warren running for re-election on: January 06, 2017, 09:13:21 pm
Solid dem hold, probably Warren by 64-33 or so.
Assuming Baker, Weld, or possibly Healy don't run...polling has shown all three making it competitive against Warren.

None would have any chance in a Trump Midterm, especially since he's likely to be unpopular and the Dem base will be riled up.
66  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2020ers voting on Trump Cabinet confirmations megathread on: January 06, 2017, 04:39:38 pm
Anyone who wants to be taken seriously in 2020 will vote against Tillerson, Sessions, DeVos, and Perry.
67  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Single most in danger Trump state of switching? on: January 06, 2017, 03:11:17 pm
Michigan seems like a one-time fluke along the lines of Obama winning Indiana in 2008
68  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Herr Fuhrer's Coronation (January 20th) on: January 06, 2017, 02:30:33 pm
There is a near-100% certainty that this will happen
69  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Living proof that Donald Trump is a man of the people on: January 06, 2017, 11:53:06 am
What does this transformation say about you and your character, Winfield?

His all encompassing bigotry, his non denial of the KKK, his promise to carpet bomb babies and toddlers, are all catching up with him.

He gazed up at the enormous face. Forty years it had taken him to learn what kind of smile was hidden beneath the orange spray tan and bad toupee. O cruel, needless misunderstanding! O stubborn, self-willed exile from the loving breast! Two gin-scented tears trickled down the sides of his nose. But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved Big Brother
70  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump working on plan to cut CIA, restructure intelligence on: January 06, 2017, 11:50:40 am
If Trump wants to do this, I say let him. It might be the sort of thing that could backfire enough for Republicans to support impeaching him.
And if Hillary had won and had purged the FBI leadership because she was unhappy with their actions during the election would that have merited impeachment? Or would that have been different?

Impeachment doesn't happen because of a specific wrongdoing. Nixon's involvement in the Watergate cover up was far from the worst thing that recent Presidents have done. Nixon was forced to resign because powerful interests in both parties wanted him replaced as President and found (or manufactured) the pretext for doing so.

If this is true (and I happen to believe that it is FWIW) this makes it even more likely a pretext to impeach Trump will be found
71  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump would have defeated Obama in 2016. on: January 06, 2017, 11:12:53 am
That poll was taken now, when Trump is in his honeymoon and is more popular. If it was on November 8, he would be coming off the sexual assault allegations and his favorability ratings would be far lower so he would lose by more, plus Obama would likely run a more effective campaign and the large amount of undecideds this year would not have broken for Trump because of a late-breaking October Surprise.

The russian leaks killed dem turnout, same would've happened to Obama. All the FBI did was kill off Hillary's republican courtship strategy, which wouldn't even exist in the first place for Obama. Go look back at 2008, Obama was the 'radical muslim socialist reverend wright candidate', it was actually an extremely effective narrative that helped consolidate the GOP base for Mccain, hence how Mccain was leading until Lehman Brothers.

So if Hillary had won in '08, and Senator Obama were running this year, if anything it would've been easier for Trump, because he wouldn't have to worry about the 'republicans4hillary' voters, and the election would've been less of a surprise, because Obama and Trump would've been seen as more neck and neck in the race.

Disagree for a few reasons:

1) Obama remains extremely popular with the Democratic Base. His only challenger would have been a Kucinich-type joke candidate. Therefore there wouldn't have been much of a primary, the DNC wouldn't have needed to be trying to "rig" it for him, and the damaging, divisive wikileaked emails likely wouldn't have happened at all
1A) Because Obama isn't perceived as corrupt and doesn't have Hillary's appalling personal negatives, and also wouldn't have faced a divisive primary, the bleeding to third parties and depressed turnout among Democrats would have been much less of an issue
2) Trump wouldn't have gotten the last-minute boost from the Comey letter. It bears repeating that WITHOUT THE PRIVATE EMAIL SERVER, COMEY WOULD HAVE HAD NOTHING TO INVESTIGATE. The mere fact that Hillary was under investigation hurt her enormously and made it difficult for her to go after Trump's corruption
3) Trump would have been buried by the p*ssyghazi tape. Hillary didn't have the standing to attack Trump on this because of Bill's sexual history, but Obama, who even his enemies admit is a devoted and loyal husband and father and who has displayed impeccable personal integrity in office, would stand in MUCH sharper contrast. Yes, a few hack conservatives probably would have still brought up Bill Clinton, but it would have been irrelevant and only people who always vote Republican would have been convinced.
4) The collapse in Black turnout wouldn't have happened, and you wouldn't have seen nearly as many black voters defect to Trump

At the end of the day, the map probably ends up looking something like this (and this is being fairly generous to Trump):



Obama/Biden 318
Trump/Pence 214
McMullin/Finn 6

Kander, Feingold, and McGinty all win in this scenario.
72  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: List of 35 pieces of so-called conventional wisdom that were false. on: January 06, 2017, 10:48:31 am
36. Democrats can win an election

Thinking you can't lose an election is a great way to lose an election. The 2016 and 2008 Clinton campaigns are Exhibits A and B of this.
73  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: List of 35 pieces of so-called conventional wisdom that were false. on: January 06, 2017, 10:02:15 am
1 is true, it's just that Trump was even more toxic
10 is probably still true also: Hillary would probably have lost even worse, including losing the PV, without the debates.
74  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: McConnell says Americans won't tolerate Democrats blocking SCOTUS nominations on: January 05, 2017, 03:09:08 pm
Can Obama re-nominate Garland now that there's still a vacancy and the new Senate term has begun?
75  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Democrats wanted to hand a second term to Trump on a silver platter... on: January 05, 2017, 02:52:44 pm
Mark Zuckerberg/Shaun King should do the trick.
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