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51  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Scott Walker to endorse someone tomorrow (3/29/16) on: March 29, 2016, 09:38:24 am
Quote
You say he is generally disliked in the state is that amongst all Wisconsinites or just the republican/conservative base.

Walker is actually pretty well liked by Conservatives, and not necessarily the folks naturally in Cruz's domain - fiscal conservatives.

I would love to see him on Cruz's ticket and Walker could help him blow Trump out in Wisconsin.

Dubya was held in pretty high esteem by most Republicans at the start of this cycle, but Trump's merciless attacks on him have pretty much destroyed his legacy on the Right and don't seem to have hurt Trump in the slightest.
52  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Let's Dispel with this fiction that... on: March 28, 2016, 09:59:27 am
No, he owes it to his supporters to stay in the race until he's mathematically eliminated. He's forcing Hillary to build up campaign infrastructure for the Fall, pushing her to the left, and keeping Democratic positions and ideas in the media. The Democratic primary has been a remarkably civil, above-board affair so far, in stark contrast to both the Republican race this cycle and the Obama-Hillary race in 2008.
53  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Who hates whom more? on: March 28, 2016, 09:04:03 am
Liberals hate Bush because he was particularly bad even for a Republican. He's a war criminal who started a war for no good reason.

Republicans hate Obama like they would hate any generic Democrat. The conspiracy theories they believe about him may be tailored to his particular race but they will believing similar ridiculous things about the next Democratic president.

I'd say 60% of conservative hatred of Obama is because he's a liberal Democrat, and 40% is because he's Black.
54  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: WASP suburbs and Jewish suburbs on: March 25, 2016, 12:18:52 pm
I can assure you that a non-Jewish white suburb of Boston has MUCH, MUCH more in common with a Jewish suburb on Long Island than it does with a white non-Jewish suburb in Atlanta.
55  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: registration deadline on: March 17, 2016, 04:07:35 pm
Donald Trump could already start collecting signatures for an Indy run in TX and NC preemptively as a pawn for a likely contested convention. If he's collected enough signatures for these 2 states when the convention rolls around, the establishment would think twice about forcing such a contested convention.

This is actually a really good idea. It would basically ensure his nomination.

Hopefully some Trump supporter doesn't email this to his campaign manager ... and I'm responsible for ensuring Trump's nomination ... Tongue

I'm sure one of the Trumpets here will volunteer, but if not I'll be glad to do so. I'd rather not face Kasich in the general. Tongue

Kasich getting the nomination at a brokered convention will badly weaken him, especially if the StormTrumpers riot because Trump didn't get it, which you know they will. And obviously Trump won't endorse him, and will likely run 3rd party against him.
56  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 publishes first 50-state primary prediction (based solely on demographics) on: March 17, 2016, 12:46:00 pm
He was... right 8|
57  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win Texas? on: March 17, 2016, 01:23:09 am
Trump will win, but only by single digits: it'll be a lot closer than normal because he's a terrible candidate for the state.
58  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton vs Trump(with maps) on: March 17, 2016, 01:21:13 am

 Trump's only chance is to win all the grey states and flip VA; not likely at this point in time.

Trump has no chance of winning VA because he's going to get blown out in NOVA and won't be able to make up for it downstate and in the Appalachians. PA and NH are both more likely to vote for him.
59  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 320 point Republican blowout led by Trump or Cruz - what would it take? on: March 16, 2016, 10:52:33 pm
A major terrorist attack the week before the election.
60  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: How large is the "socially liberal, fiscally conservative" constituency anyway? on: March 16, 2016, 09:03:41 pm
A lot less common in real life than the opinion pages of major newspapers and magazines would have you believe. Probably about 5-10% of the electorate.
61  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: PEW: In More States, Newest Immigrants Are Educated Asians on: March 16, 2016, 09:02:17 pm
I'm really surprised that Trump hasn't gone after Indians or Asians in general.

They aren't feared and hated in the heartland the way that Muslims and Mexicans are, and the risk of backlash is much stronger.
62  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Bernie Sanders be gracious in defeat? on: March 16, 2016, 09:00:01 pm
He will. The Democratic race has actually been an incredibly civil affair so far that contrasts well with the sh[inks]show on the Republican so. There's much less bitterness and division this time around than there was between Hillary and Obama in 2008, and I expect that he will indeed be gracious in defeat.
63  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Arizona on: March 16, 2016, 01:37:32 pm
Trump is pretty much the perfect candidate for the AZ-GOP. He'll win easily, and will probably crack 60%.
64  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: SCOTUS nominee expected as early as this morning EDIT: looks like it's Garland on: March 16, 2016, 01:35:19 pm
They need to get him through the Judiciary Committee first.



The US Senate's Judiciary Committee, which Justice Garland will need a majority of to even go before the Senate Floor:

 Republicans (11)
•Chuck Grassley, Iowa, Chair
•Orrin Hatch, Utah
•Jeff Sessions, Alabama
•Lindsey Graham, South Carolina
•John Cornyn, Texas
•Mike Lee, Utah
•Ted Cruz, Texas
•Jeff Flake, Arizona
•David Vitter, Louisiana
•David Perdue, Georgia
•Thom Tillis, North Carolina

Democrats (9)
•Patrick Leahy, Vermont, Ranking Member
•Dianne Feinstein, California
•Chuck Schumer, New York
•Dick Durbin, Illinois
•Sheldon Whitehouse, Rhode Island
•Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota
•Al Franken, Minnesota
•Chris Coons, Delaware
•Richard Blumenthal, Connecticut


So we need at least 2 of those Republicans to vote to proceed to the Senate Floor.

Grassley, Graham, Hatch, Flake, and Cornyn are the ones I would work on in that order.

Graham and Hatch are the only possible ones. Grassley might if he's he's shackled to a toxic Trump ticket and in serious danger of losing his seat, but even then, I doubt it.
65  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: SCOTUS nominee expected as early as this morning EDIT: looks like it's Garland on: March 16, 2016, 10:03:28 am
So is the fact that Garland is old part of the calculation here?  A few months from now, if Clinton is leading general election matchups by double digits and it looks like the GOP stands a good chance of losing the Senate, then having an older nominee makes at least some of the Senate Republicans more likely to buckle, since they figure that a President Hillary Clinton with a Democratic Senate would yield a Supreme Court Justice who's further to the left, and young enough to serve an additional 15 years?  So they give in and approve Garland, since the alternative is worse?


They can't do that without pissing off their base and making it look like they're caving to Obama, which is why this is so brilliant.
66  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Future focus of the GOP on: March 16, 2016, 10:01:57 am
Granted, any attempt to deny the nomination of the person that ends up with the most delegates may irreparably damage the party, so I'd like to set that aside for the moment. The question I'd like to pose is this: moving beyond 2016, do you see the GOP embracing the populism racism of Trump, the conservatism of Cruz, or the pragmatism of Kasich? And why?

FTFY. And that.
67  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Notable Clinton gaffes this week on: March 16, 2016, 09:22:18 am
Truth is, nobody will remember these gaffes come November.

The Reagan won't probably won't be forgotten. It was amazingly bad.
Literally no one cares about that outside of the daily kos.  No one is talking about it now and they definitely won't be in November.

I can affirm this. This is an issue for the gay community and latte liberals, but they'll be voting for her anyway, out of fear of Trump if nothing else. It was bad, wrong, and embarrassing, but it  wasn't a campaign-destroying gaffe on par with Romney's 47%, Dukakis in a tank, or McCain's "Fundamentals of our economy are strong".
68  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of this #NeverTrump strategy on: March 16, 2016, 09:05:04 am
There's also the fact that Trump is still stuck in the 35% range, roughly where he's been since December

Post Chicago-Rally, he is up

OH: Trump 38
FL: Trump 47
MO: Trump 40
NC: Trump 39
IL: Trump 40



He still seems to have trouble getting above 40% outside the South, which means that a sizeable bloc of Republicans aren't on board the Trump train. Normally momentum alone would be giving him majorities by now.
69  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of this #NeverTrump strategy on: March 15, 2016, 06:05:05 pm
@Crumpets - Check this out:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/03/15/anti-donald-trump-attacks-top-35-million-in-advance-of-tuesday-primaries/

Basically, over the past several months, various conservative groups have spent upwards of 35 million dollars attacking Trump, with little effect on his wildly successful campaign.

So the reason I post this is just to show that their strategy seems to be completely pointless and a massive waste of money. Good thing the party of the rich has plenty of billionaire donors willing to throw away their pocket change on futile causes.

Or maybe we're looking at this wrong. There's also the fact that Trump is still stuck in the 35% range, roughly where he's been since December or so, despite the biggest media circus of all time and the loads of free advertising that it entails.
70  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Ides of March Tuesday results thread (N. Marianas start at 4:30am ET) on: March 15, 2016, 05:57:05 pm
I was hoping Rubio would pull it out (tee hee) but I knew it was a long-shot and now it looks like he definitely won't.
71  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win Miami-Dade County? (R) on: March 15, 2016, 05:47:27 pm
He'll win Miami-Dade. Trump wins south Florida overall though.
72  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Process / Re: Is it fair that Puerto Rico/other random islands get delegates? on: March 15, 2016, 02:52:32 pm
Yes, but it's a bit unfair that the Northern Marianas get NINE Republican delegates when their population is only 54,000, half as many as Hawaii, which has 26 times the population.
73  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Process / Re: What happens to the delegates of a dropped-out candidate? on: March 15, 2016, 02:49:01 pm
If a candidate "suspends" their campaign but doesn't drop out, do their delegates remain pledged to them?
74  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How Do You Imagine Jim Webb Supporters? on: March 15, 2016, 02:40:38 pm

No, she isn't. The woman I think you're referring to has been confirmed to not be the woman in the photo.
75  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How Do You Imagine Jim Webb Supporters? on: March 15, 2016, 01:27:21 pm
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