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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK parliamentary by-elections 2014 on: September 27, 2014, 12:11:11 pm
How similar is this seat to the Medway seat which Bob Marshall-Andrews narrowly held for Labour in 2005 (after conceding defeat)?  There must have been some changes if it was already notionally Tory, but it seems to have been very similar.

There haven't been any local elections to Medway council since 2011, and back then UKIP didn't have many candidates in the area, but that Euro result looks good for them.  (Anyone have any idea what the patterns are likely to be like within the council area?)

Trivia: Rochester is the only place in England to have lost city status.

According to UK-Elect (which takes the same data from the Press Association) the similarity is 15.10% (i.e nothing like the old Medway)
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK parliamentary by-elections 2014 on: September 27, 2014, 11:02:29 am
Result in 2010
Mark Reckless (Con) 23,604 (49% +6% on notional 2005)
Teresa Murray (Lab) 13,651 (28% -13% on notional 2005)
Geoffrey Juby (Lib Dem) 7,800 (16% +4% on notional 2005)
Ron Sands (Eng Dems) 2,182 (5% +5% on notional 2005)
Simon Marchant (Green) 734 (2%, no candidate in 2005)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 9,953 (21%) on a notional swing of 10% from Labour to Conservative

Medway Local Area Count Result : European Elections 2014
United Kingdom Independence Party 27,265 (42% +20% on 2009)
Conservatives 15,043 (23% -8% on 2009)
Labour 12,448 (19% +4% on 2009)
Green 3,684 (6% -2% on 2009)
Liberal Democrats 2,420 (4% -5% on 2009)
British National Party 761 (1% -7% on 2009)
Other Parties 3,480 (5% -3% on 2009)
UKIP GAIN from Con on a swing of 14% from Con to UKIP
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum prediction thread on: September 12, 2014, 04:05:04 pm
Turnout: Low 80's (83.5%)
Vote: YES 50.5% NO 49.5%
Implications: Cameron gets a vote of no confidence tabled against him which he wins (by 3) but is fatally damaged
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Senate election - September 28, 2014 on: September 09, 2014, 03:30:36 pm
That will give me something to tide me over until the Mid Terms I say (presumably live coverage on TV5 Monde and France 24?)
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 07, 2014, 03:16:22 pm
Scotland tie against the world champs in Germany!

That could make life a little interesting
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Westminster Parliamentary By-Election : Clacton (date to be announced) on: August 29, 2014, 06:22:57 am
Wouldn't shock me if they went for the Thursday of Labour conference. It'd nip any Labour bounce in the bud.

Unless Labour gained Clacton that is?
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Westminster Parliamentary By-Election : Clacton (date to be announced) on: August 28, 2014, 07:59:37 am
Ladbrooks by-election odds:

1/3 UKIP
5/2 Cons
10/1 Lab
100/1 LD

I wonder who else in the Tory ranks would be tempted to break ranks if all hell breaks loose. Michael Fabricant? Owen Patterson? Nadine Dories? Peter Bone? Dan Hannan?

You mean Dan Hannan the MEP (who cannot force a by-election due to the method of his election)?
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Westminster Parliamentary By-Election : Clacton (date to be announced) on: August 28, 2014, 06:50:54 am
The latest rumours swirling around Westminster are:

Coalition MP's are being whipped to reject the writ being moved
Chancellor to oppose signing the stewardship document that allows an MP to resign
Writ to be moved so that the by-election happens during the Liberal Democrat conference
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Westminster Parliamentary By-Election : Clacton (date to be announced) on: August 28, 2014, 05:31:02 am
Douglas Carswell MP (elected for the Clacton constituency in 2005) has announced this morning that not only is he defecting from the Conservatives to the United Kingdom Independence Party, but he will resigning his Westminster seat in order to fight the Clacton by-election as UKIP (which as you can imagine has taken a lot of people by surprise!)

Clacton
Douglas Carswell, Con    22867   53.02%
Ivan Henderson, Lab    10799   25.04%
Michael Green, Lib Dem     5577   12.93%
Jim Taylor, BNP     1975    4.57%
Terry Allen, Tendring     1078    2.49%
Chris Southall, Green      535    1.24%
Christopher Humphrey, Ind      292    0.67%
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 12,068 (28%) on a swing of 9% from Labour to Conservative

This by-election is the first defection by-election since Mitcham and Morden in 1982 and could well be timed to cause maximum chaos for the Conservative Party Conference (due towards the end of September)
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: August 26, 2014, 03:11:28 pm
Sky News are reporting that they have seen an internal UKIP target list of 12 seats:

South Thanet now with added Nigel Farage for UKIP)
North Thanet
Sittingbourne & Sheppey
Worthing East & Shoreham

Eastleigh
Portsmouth South

Aylesbury
Forest of Dean
Thurrock
Great Yarmouth
Boston & Skegness

Great Grimsby

For which I get paid the grand sum of 66p via Paddy Power!
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: August 26, 2014, 11:33:48 am
Rhondda in 2001 remains the funniest instance to date, I think.

Labour 23,230 votes (68% -7% on 1997)
Plaid Cymru 7,183 votes (21% +8% on 1997)
Conservatives 1,557 votes (5% +1% on 1997)
Liberal Democrats 1,525 votes (4% -2% on 1997)
Independent 507 votes (1%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 16,047 votes (47%) on a swing of 7% from Lab to Plaid

Am I missing something here, because that doesn't sound funny at all?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhondda_%28Assembly_constituency%29#Elections_in_the_1990s

Also, why did Plaid win Rhondda anyway?

Oh, you mean Rhondda 1999 not Rhondda 2001.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: August 26, 2014, 04:06:03 am
Rhondda in 2001 remains the funniest instance to date, I think.

Labour 23,230 votes (68% -7% on 1997)
Plaid Cymru 7,183 votes (21% +8% on 1997)
Conservatives 1,557 votes (5% +1% on 1997)
Liberal Democrats 1,525 votes (4% -2% on 1997)
Independent 507 votes (1%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 16,047 votes (47%) on a swing of 7% from Lab to Plaid

Am I missing something here, because that doesn't sound funny at all?
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election Results The UK Public Probably Regretted on: August 15, 2014, 04:38:54 pm
They regretted electing a parliament where no one party had a majority and wished that they had given a party a majority instead
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: August 14, 2014, 04:35:46 pm
The effect of "fracking" at the next election (for the attention of Mr. Teale)

15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election Results The UK Public Probably Regretted on: August 14, 2014, 01:54:39 pm
Might I be so bold as to suggest 2010 (although that said the British public regretted it as soon as Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems topped the polls after the first debate)
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Single Member Parliamentary Districts on: August 14, 2014, 01:50:22 pm
Anything that mentions FPTP gets my interest, but one small question. NEOS only have nine seats in the Austrian Parliament (out of 183) and the next elections are not due until 2017. There's no chance of this idea actually getting of the ground is there?
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 29, 2014, 04:43:58 am
Even since the UKIP surge in 2013, I have become convinced that the next election will see the following vote shares:

Conservatives 30%
Labour 30%
UKIP 20%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Greens 5%
Others 5%

According to Electoral Calculus, that would result in a House of Commons with: Labour 317, Conservatives 274, Liberal Democrats 29, SNP 7, Plaid 3, Greens 1, Northern Ireland 18
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: July 28, 2014, 01:22:02 pm
Using the data published by Electoral Calculus as to how similar the new proposed seat was to the old, I came up with the following alternative General Election 2010

Conservatives 296 seats
Labour 234 seats
Liberal Democrats 47 seats
Democratic Unionists 6 seats
Scottish Nationalists 6 seats
Sinn Fein 6 seats
SDLP 2 seats
Plaid Cymru 1 seat
Alliance 1 seat
Northern Ireland Independents 1 seat
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: May 15, 2014, 01:40:17 pm
My personal feelings are:
Vote Share: Con 30%, Lab 30%, UKIP 20%, Lib Dem 10%, Others 10%
Seat Share: Con and Lab both around 300 with Lib Dems winning 0 - 5 seats making a coalition impossible. General Election held in November 2015 or Grand Coalition

300 seats each for the Conservative and Labour parties and up to 5 for us? Check your writings, Harry!

Running through UK-Elect: Lab 305, Con 303, SNP 9, UKIP 7, Plaid 4, Lib Dem 2, Green 1, National Health Action 1, Northern Ireland 18 (Hung Parliament)

Coalitions:
Conservatives + Unionists (DUP Cool = 311 (Not a workable coalition, short of 323)
Labour + SNP + Plaid + SDLP = 321 (Not a workable coalition, too many parties)
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: May 14, 2014, 01:25:07 pm
My personal feelings are:
Vote Share: Con 30%, Lab 30%, UKIP 20%, Lib Dem 10%, Others 10%
Seat Share: Con and Lab both around 300 with Lib Dems winning 0 - 5 seats making a coalition impossible. General Election held in November 2015 or Grand Coalition
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012 on: April 30, 2014, 01:31:53 pm
For those interested, I'm in the process of putting together a map based on the redistribution in the vein of my last one (with a few improvements). It's progressing, albeit slowly.

I have just found the data and have downloaded it with a new to creating a projector and battleground. If there is a chance of making your maps into KML files for Google Earth, could you send them to me?

Is this what you're looking for?

http://www.geobase.ca/geobase/en/search.do;jsessionid=A63CA10B7B4D98F6157B5DA914A593E1.geobase1?produit=fed&language=en

That is brilliant, thank you very much indeed
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012 on: April 30, 2014, 11:40:54 am
For those interested, I'm in the process of putting together a map based on the redistribution in the vein of my last one (with a few improvements). It's progressing, albeit slowly.

I have just found the data and have downloaded it with a new to creating a projector and battleground. If there is a chance of making your maps into KML files for Google Earth, could you send them to me?
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: South Africa 2014 on: April 30, 2014, 11:37:30 am
Polls open at 7.00am local time (6.00am BST / 1.00am EDT) and close at 9.00pm local time (8.00pm BST / 3.00pm EDT). I imagine that ARISE News, TVC News and eNCA Africa will all cover the results in varying degrees of detail.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / BBC Exclusive: Axelrod to assist Milliband in 2015 on: April 17, 2014, 04:40:51 pm
Barack Obama's most influential adviser during two presidential victories has been hired to advise Labour on its 2015 election campaign, ensuring that Ed Miliband will put inequality and the break between family finances and economic growth at the centre of his election campaign.

David Axelrod has been given the title of senior strategic adviser and the American told the Guardian that Labour's political and economic analysis was similar to the central themes deployed in Obama's successful re-election campaign.

The political guru said that he had signed up "because I have had some long conversations with Ed Miliband over the course of the past year and it was less about politics, and more about this issue of how in the 21st century you create healthy economies in which opportunity is broadly available, and people can stay ahead of the cost of living".

His arrival on the British scene will pit him against the Australian Lynton Crosby, the Conservative campaign consultant, who is one the toughest campaign operators. But he will not be as hands-on as his rival: he will first visit the UK in May, and Labour's overall campaign structure, the subject of recent leaks and rivalries, remains unchanged.

It also, more intriguingly, pits him against a former Obama colleague, Jim Messina, who has been hired by David Cameron. Axelrod was reluctant to discuss Messina, except to promise he had the capacity to surprise.

The deal was finalised last week by Douglas Alexander, the Labour election co-ordinator, and involved what is being described as a six-figure sum to pay for the services of Axelrod and the firm, AKPD, until the general election in May next year.

Axelrod was integral not just to Obama's two presidential victories in 2008 and 2012, but also to Obama's election as a senator in 2004. He has been described as a lobe of the Obama brain.

He comes at a time when Labour still holds a consistent poll lead, but there is an expectation that the lead will narrow as the economy improves and wages start to rise faster than prices, the point of crossover that the Conservatives will argue means the living standards crisis is over.

I would very much like to know what our American friends make of this
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Forum turnout poll: Will you/Would you vote in the EP elections next month ? on: April 15, 2014, 02:23:58 pm
Yes, for Alec Dauncey in the Welsh electoral region
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