Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 26, 2016, 12:25:45 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 76
1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017 on: Today at 06:18:03 am
Current resignations:

Conservative Resignations
David Cameron MP (Witney) Prime Minister

Labour Resignations
Hillary Benn MP (Leeds Central) Technically sacked Shadow Foreign Secretary
Heidi Alexander MP (Lewisham East) Shadow Health Secretary
Gloria de Piero MP (Ashfield) Shadow Minister with responsibility for young people
Ian Murray MP (Edinburgh South) Shadow Scottish Secretary
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017 on: Today at 02:56:42 am
Heidi Alexander MP (Lab, Lewisham East) has tendered her resignation and there are expectations that a minimum of 10 Shadow Cabinet members intend to resign by the end of the day (and as many as 14)
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017 on: June 24, 2016, 10:18:08 am
Although there is no requirement for the new Prime Minister to hold a general election, given how the Conservatives badgered Gordon Brown to hold an election (and then he bottled it at the last minute) I would be very surprised if the new Prime Minister did not call a general election shortly after his election in October. However, of course, that would mean having to square the circle of the Fixed Term Parliament Act (which requires 426 MP's to vote for an election). I suppose one possible option would to be offer the government's resignation and then challenge Labour and the SNP to form a majority (which is impossible) and then hold an election.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: 2016 Presidential Predictions (General) on: April 04, 2016, 11:20:40 am
Apologies for missing North Dakota's GOP primary over the weekend. My grandmother, who has just had a hip operation, was suffering from a low sodium count (and may have been ever since she was discharged) and therefore I have been more concerned about her. I am pleased to report that she is now recovering and wanted to explain the lack of a prediction for that event.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016 on: March 04, 2016, 11:23:53 am
So, we have:

FG: 50 (-26)
FF: 44 (+24)
SF: 23 (+9)
Lab: 7 (-30)
AAA-PBP: 6 (+1)
SD: 3 (new)
Green: 2 (+2)
Ind: 23 (+9)

At least the FF+FG total is down from 2011. Guess that's the only way to spin this positively. Tongue

So 158 members means 80 for a majority. Well, clearly Fine Gael are the largest party so they get first dibs at creating a majority. As Wikipedia describes them as liberal conservative and Christian democratic let's see what other parties are liberal and conservative and Christian. Well Renua are described as being conservative (but with no seats that's not going to go anywhere) and so they are stumped.

So let's see who Fianna Fail do, as an Irish Republican party, well there the clear match is Sinn Fein so let's add FF's 44 to Sinn Fein's 23 and we end up with 67 (still some 13 short) at which point they get stumped.

So the way I see there are three possible options. Option 1: Grand Coalition of FF and FG (94), Option 2: FF and the Independents (67) as a minority or Option 3: We do the whole thing again in September.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016 on: February 29, 2016, 05:18:46 am
(Source: Irish Times)
36 constituencies completed (with Dublin Bay North having a full recount)
Current Seat Tallies
Fine Gael 47
Fianna Fail 43
Sinn Fein 22
Independents 20
Labour 6
Anti Austerity Alliance 5
Social Democrats 3
Greens 2

Fine Gael + Labour = 53
Fianna Fail + Independents = 67
Fine Gael + Fianna Fail = 90

My thoughts, second general election by the summer / autumn
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: BREAKING Gabbard resigns from DNC and endorses Bernie on: February 28, 2016, 02:13:41 pm
Does this mean that she is now an Independent congresswoman?
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016 on: February 28, 2016, 12:11:40 pm

And note how all of them are incumbents?
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016 on: February 28, 2016, 10:34:28 am
FG-FF seat difference seems to be 34-32.  My best back-of-envelope guess looking at seats remaining is that FG-FF will end up 52-43 in terms of seats.  Given Ireland is the land of STV, is there any advantage from being the largest party in terms of getting the Taoiseach seat?  Is  FG-FF grand alliance destined to have a FG Taoiseach then ?

As there has never been a grand coalition before, no one knows, but I should point out the exit poll which said that 50% of voters expect an election before the end of the year (suggesting that a government will not be formed)
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016 on: February 28, 2016, 09:06:44 am
(Source: Irish Times)
All 40 constituencies have declared their first count
23 constituency counts have been completed
109 seats have been filled

Tally of % share (change on 2011) and seats won so far
Fine Gael 26% (-10%) winning 34 seats
Fianna Fail 24% (+6%) winning 32 seats
Independents 18% (+6%) winning 16 seats
Sinn Fein 14% (+4%) winning 14 seats
Labour 7% (-13%) winning 4 seats
Anti Austerity Alliance 4% (+3%) winning 4 seats
Social Democrats 3% (no candidates at last election) winning 3 seats
Green Party 3% (+1%) winning 2 seats
Renua 2% (no candidates at last election) winning 0 seats

Swing from governing parties (FG + Lab) to main opposition (FF) of 14.5%
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016 on: February 27, 2016, 06:14:22 pm
Source: The Irish Times

Counts Complete: 8
Seats Filled: 54

Vote Share and Seats Won
Fine Gael 26% winning 14 seats
Fianna Fail 25% winning 19 seats
Independents 17% winning 6 seats
Sinn Fein 14% winning 6 seats
Labour 7% winning 1 seat
Anti Austerity Alliance 4% winning 2 seats
Social Democrats 3% winning 3 seats
Green Party 3% winning 1 seat
Other Parties 1% winning 0 seats
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016 on: February 27, 2016, 03:31:14 pm
Current vote share (and seat tally)

Fine Gael 25.1% winning 7 seats
Fianna Fail 24.9% winning 13 seats
Sinn Fein 13.3% winning 4 seats
Independents 12.6% winning 2 seats
Labour 6.9% winning 0 seats
Anti Austerity Alliance 4.2% winning 1 seat
Independent Alliance 3.8% winning 2 seats
Social Democrats 3.5% winning 3 seats
Green Party 2.9% winning 1 seat
Renua 2.2% winning 0 seats
Others 0.7% winning 0 seats
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016 on: February 27, 2016, 09:54:39 am
Galway East has completed its first count - Independent Sean Canney and Fine Gaeler (and former PD) Ciaran Cannon, looking likely to fill 2 of the seats.

And in terms of percentages: Fine Gael 30%, Fianna Fail 27%, Independent 25%. Sinn Fein 6%, Green Party 2%
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016 on: February 27, 2016, 09:07:43 am
The exit poll that was published this morning has now been reshown on Irish TV and the full breakdown is as follows (with change on 2011)

Fine Gael 25% -11%
Fianna Fail 21% +3%
Independents 11% -1%
Sinn Fein 16% +6%
Labour 7% -13%
People Before Profit / Anti Austerity Alliance 5% +4% (on PBP 2011)
Social Democrats 4%
Renua 2%
Green Party 4% +2%
Others 3%
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016 on: February 26, 2016, 05:13:20 am
RT╔ have commissioned B&A to do an exit poll. Results will be published at 07.00 tomorrow morning. The exit poll has a good record on accuracy.

Blimely, that's a bit of an early start for the broadcasters isn't it?
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016 on: February 25, 2016, 05:28:30 am
There will be NO coverage on BBC Parliament (as there was in 2011) but there are other others. If you are in the UK and have a Sky+ box, Irish TV (Sky Channel 191) will be hosting two special programmes at 2.00pm and 7.00pm GMT (each lasting three hours) which are sandwiched by three special half hour programmes with some of the party leaders and reactions to the results. RTE will also be showing the results (and that will be streamed on their website rte.ie) and on the Sunday BBC One Northern Ireland (Sky Channel 953, Freeview Channel 1 in Northern Ireland) will be showing a special election of the Sunday Politics show live from Dublin.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: National Assembly of Wales Elections 2016 on: January 29, 2016, 03:21:04 pm
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr will be very interesting indeed. In 1999 Rhodri polled 53%, 2003 48%, 2007 53% and 2011 45% and when the MP for the constituency stood down in 2010 Plaid's vote fell from 46% to just 36% (with most of that support going to the Conservatives (Plaid -10%, Lab -2%, Con +8%, Lib Dem +2%. UKIP +1%). If that happens in May you will have Plaid on 33%, Lab on 28%, Con on 28% and Lib Dem on 7% (making the seat a right three way marginal)
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / 2016 Scoring Question (in case 2012 repeats) on: January 22, 2016, 09:50:01 am
Result of Iowa GOP caucus 2012 (as reported by the New York Times)
Santorum 24.6%, Romney 24.5%, Paul 21.4%, Gingrich 13.3%, Perry 10.3%, Bachmann 5.0%
Estimated Delgate Count (CNN / Fox News)
Santorum 7/12, Romney 7/12, Paul 7/0, Gingrich 2/0
Actual Delegate Count: Paul 22, Romney 6

I would like to ask (given the fact that Trump and Cruz are so close) and the prospect of someone coming up cannot be ruled out, what the official scoring policy is if someone projects the DELEGATE count winner correctly but not the VOTE count winner?
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2000 Election Game- Interactive Timeline!! (Game Thread) on: January 15, 2016, 08:46:53 am
sorry, schools keepin me busy update will b out tmrw 4 sure

And it's now January 15th so does this mean that this isn't happening then?
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2000 Election Game- Interactive Timeline!! (Game Thread) on: January 07, 2016, 06:14:21 pm
Press Release by the Harry Browne campaign

Harry Browne wishes to address the rumours reported by CNN and others that he has been offered the LNC chair and a clear path to the 2004 nomination for the Libertarian Party if he stands down for another candidate at this election. The rumours are indeed true, and I publish now the message I received a few days ago

Quote
Mr. Harry Browne: I am considering joining the Libertarian race, and so I am writing to you proposing that you become my Libertarian Campaign Spokesman and Campaign Director. In exchange, I would grant you the LNC Chair and I'd promise not to run for the Libertarian Party nomination in 2004.

I would like to reply to this message in the following way: "Sir, I accept your challenge. We are a party that seeks to abolish the two party structure in the United States where ordinary people decide policy not multi millionaire corporate donors or political action committees. Therefore, I am willing to hold a debate with you, at a date and time of your choosing, which I am inviting all the major news channels to cover live so that America can see that we are not afraid to show our differences"
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Quebec Votes Yes-An alternative event timeline to the 1995 Referendum on: January 07, 2016, 02:22:46 pm
Could I ask for reaction from the following overseas organisations?
Scottish National Party (Leader: Alex Salmond MP)
Plaid Cymru (Leader: Dafydd Wigley MP)
Republican Left of Catalonia (Leader: └ngel Colom contesting election in November 1995)
ETA (Euskadi Ta Askatasuna) (Leader: Josu Urrutikoetxea )
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2000 Election Game- Interactive Timeline!! (Game Thread) on: January 06, 2016, 11:51:02 am
Harry Browne Campaign Advertisement, July 1999

Quote
My name is Harry Browne and I approve this message

Hello there, my name is Joe and I'm a plumber from Des Moines and I would like to take a few moments to talk to you about Harry Browne, the Libertarian candidate for President. Until last month I was a registered Democrat but was, to be frank with you, disappointed by what I was hearing from the candidates seeking the Democratic nomination. Please do not get me wrong Governor Shaheen has served the people of New Hampshire exceptionally well as their governor over the last three years, Governor Dean has also looked after the people of Vermont as well, Senator Feingold has been, as most people from Wisconsin are, a hard worker and Senator Boren served the people of Oklahoma with distinction but none of them really answered the questions I was asking myself. Then along came Mr. Browne, he knocked on my door and instead of saying "Hi, I'm running for President, can I count on your support?" he said "Good afternoon Joe, I'm Harry and I want to know what you want done for America!"

That was such a change to have a politician listen to me, a humble plumber from Iowa, not a multi national corporate CEO or the head of a political action committee, but plain old me. And when I told him my concerns he replied "Let me see what I can do" and a week later I got a hand written letter from him (shows letter to camera) detailing what he would do if he was elected President. That's when I registered as a Libertarian and told all my friends in Des Moines about him. My name is Joe and I'm voting Browne for President.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2000 Election Game- Interactive Timeline!! (Game Thread) on: January 05, 2016, 09:23:55 am
Press Release from the office of Harry Browne, Libertarian candidate for President

Harry Browne can today announce that he has raised $5 million in funds and will shortly announce his first round of campaign ads, not fronted by PAC's, not fronted by a celebrity, but fronted by an ordinary American. The ads will run in Iowa in the first week of July and will be followed by a month long tour of the state.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2000 Election Game- Interactive Timeline!! (Game Thread) on: January 01, 2016, 04:48:19 am
Urgent Press Release from Browne campaign

The campaign manager for Harry Browne's campaign has announced that anyone reporting the rumours privately circulating online about his commitment to being the Libertarian candidate at the general election will be sued for every dollar they have. Mr. Browne fully intends to contest the general election and believes that these rumours are being put out by people determined to keep the current two party system in place. He also urges supporters across the country to carry on donating to the campaign (whose funds now rank at $2 million) to show that America is fed up with corporate politics
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2000 Election Game- Interactive Timeline!! (Game Thread) on: December 31, 2015, 03:56:53 am
Press Release from Harry Browne, Libertarian Candidate

Harry Browne, the Libertarian candidate for President, will be spending the next fortnight touring each state in America in order to listen to the common person. He is not being funded by corporate America, he is being funded by you, the everyday Joe. Releasing fundraising data he has raised just over a million dollars since the start of the year through 100,000 people donating an average of $10.

The tour will start in Key West, FL and then travel to Dallas, TX, Palm Springs, CA, Seattle, WA, St. Braham, MN, Madison, WI and Detroit, MI. In each city he will stand in the middle of the downtown area and say only one thing "TALK TO ME" and from the rest of the day will listen. Listen to the concerns of the average American.

Browne, The American people's candidate
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 76


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines