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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: National Assembly of Wales Elections 2016 on: January 29, 2016, 03:21:04 pm
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr will be very interesting indeed. In 1999 Rhodri polled 53%, 2003 48%, 2007 53% and 2011 45% and when the MP for the constituency stood down in 2010 Plaid's vote fell from 46% to just 36% (with most of that support going to the Conservatives (Plaid -10%, Lab -2%, Con +8%, Lib Dem +2%. UKIP +1%). If that happens in May you will have Plaid on 33%, Lab on 28%, Con on 28% and Lib Dem on 7% (making the seat a right three way marginal)
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / 2016 Scoring Question (in case 2012 repeats) on: January 22, 2016, 09:50:01 am
Result of Iowa GOP caucus 2012 (as reported by the New York Times)
Santorum 24.6%, Romney 24.5%, Paul 21.4%, Gingrich 13.3%, Perry 10.3%, Bachmann 5.0%
Estimated Delgate Count (CNN / Fox News)
Santorum 7/12, Romney 7/12, Paul 7/0, Gingrich 2/0
Actual Delegate Count: Paul 22, Romney 6

I would like to ask (given the fact that Trump and Cruz are so close) and the prospect of someone coming up cannot be ruled out, what the official scoring policy is if someone projects the DELEGATE count winner correctly but not the VOTE count winner?
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2000 Election Game- Interactive Timeline!! (Game Thread) on: January 15, 2016, 08:46:53 am
sorry, schools keepin me busy update will b out tmrw 4 sure

And it's now January 15th so does this mean that this isn't happening then?
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2000 Election Game- Interactive Timeline!! (Game Thread) on: January 07, 2016, 06:14:21 pm
Press Release by the Harry Browne campaign

Harry Browne wishes to address the rumours reported by CNN and others that he has been offered the LNC chair and a clear path to the 2004 nomination for the Libertarian Party if he stands down for another candidate at this election. The rumours are indeed true, and I publish now the message I received a few days ago

Quote
Mr. Harry Browne: I am considering joining the Libertarian race, and so I am writing to you proposing that you become my Libertarian Campaign Spokesman and Campaign Director. In exchange, I would grant you the LNC Chair and I'd promise not to run for the Libertarian Party nomination in 2004.

I would like to reply to this message in the following way: "Sir, I accept your challenge. We are a party that seeks to abolish the two party structure in the United States where ordinary people decide policy not multi millionaire corporate donors or political action committees. Therefore, I am willing to hold a debate with you, at a date and time of your choosing, which I am inviting all the major news channels to cover live so that America can see that we are not afraid to show our differences"
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Quebec Votes Yes-An alternative event timeline to the 1995 Referendum on: January 07, 2016, 02:22:46 pm
Could I ask for reaction from the following overseas organisations?
Scottish National Party (Leader: Alex Salmond MP)
Plaid Cymru (Leader: Dafydd Wigley MP)
Republican Left of Catalonia (Leader: Àngel Colom contesting election in November 1995)
ETA (Euskadi Ta Askatasuna) (Leader: Josu Urrutikoetxea )
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2000 Election Game- Interactive Timeline!! (Game Thread) on: January 06, 2016, 11:51:02 am
Harry Browne Campaign Advertisement, July 1999

Quote
My name is Harry Browne and I approve this message

Hello there, my name is Joe and I'm a plumber from Des Moines and I would like to take a few moments to talk to you about Harry Browne, the Libertarian candidate for President. Until last month I was a registered Democrat but was, to be frank with you, disappointed by what I was hearing from the candidates seeking the Democratic nomination. Please do not get me wrong Governor Shaheen has served the people of New Hampshire exceptionally well as their governor over the last three years, Governor Dean has also looked after the people of Vermont as well, Senator Feingold has been, as most people from Wisconsin are, a hard worker and Senator Boren served the people of Oklahoma with distinction but none of them really answered the questions I was asking myself. Then along came Mr. Browne, he knocked on my door and instead of saying "Hi, I'm running for President, can I count on your support?" he said "Good afternoon Joe, I'm Harry and I want to know what you want done for America!"

That was such a change to have a politician listen to me, a humble plumber from Iowa, not a multi national corporate CEO or the head of a political action committee, but plain old me. And when I told him my concerns he replied "Let me see what I can do" and a week later I got a hand written letter from him (shows letter to camera) detailing what he would do if he was elected President. That's when I registered as a Libertarian and told all my friends in Des Moines about him. My name is Joe and I'm voting Browne for President.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2000 Election Game- Interactive Timeline!! (Game Thread) on: January 05, 2016, 09:23:55 am
Press Release from the office of Harry Browne, Libertarian candidate for President

Harry Browne can today announce that he has raised $5 million in funds and will shortly announce his first round of campaign ads, not fronted by PAC's, not fronted by a celebrity, but fronted by an ordinary American. The ads will run in Iowa in the first week of July and will be followed by a month long tour of the state.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2000 Election Game- Interactive Timeline!! (Game Thread) on: January 01, 2016, 04:48:19 am
Urgent Press Release from Browne campaign

The campaign manager for Harry Browne's campaign has announced that anyone reporting the rumours privately circulating online about his commitment to being the Libertarian candidate at the general election will be sued for every dollar they have. Mr. Browne fully intends to contest the general election and believes that these rumours are being put out by people determined to keep the current two party system in place. He also urges supporters across the country to carry on donating to the campaign (whose funds now rank at $2 million) to show that America is fed up with corporate politics
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2000 Election Game- Interactive Timeline!! (Game Thread) on: December 31, 2015, 03:56:53 am
Press Release from Harry Browne, Libertarian Candidate

Harry Browne, the Libertarian candidate for President, will be spending the next fortnight touring each state in America in order to listen to the common person. He is not being funded by corporate America, he is being funded by you, the everyday Joe. Releasing fundraising data he has raised just over a million dollars since the start of the year through 100,000 people donating an average of $10.

The tour will start in Key West, FL and then travel to Dallas, TX, Palm Springs, CA, Seattle, WA, St. Braham, MN, Madison, WI and Detroit, MI. In each city he will stand in the middle of the downtown area and say only one thing "TALK TO ME" and from the rest of the day will listen. Listen to the concerns of the average American.

Browne, The American people's candidate
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2000 Election Game- Interactive Timeline!! (Game Thread) on: December 30, 2015, 04:37:55 am
Could I ask why I am not being notified of replies despite clicking the Notify button every time I visit?
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2000 Election Game- Interactive Timeline!! (Game Thread) on: December 29, 2015, 08:59:17 am
Quote
How would you "integrate the police force", since that was part of your announcement?
What would be your primary goal as commander-in-chief?
What is your strategy?

First of all, thank you for asking these questions. For too long so called "third party candidates" have been ignored by the mass media and I am sure that is why turnout in these elections has been falling as America has become sick to death of "Blame the other side". Firstly, I believe that police departments should reflect the community they serve, so will call that police departments recruit from whichever parts of their community that they are lacking in (for instance if a community is 33% African American, 33% Hispanic and 34% White, then the police force should be 33% African American, 33% Hispanic and 34% White.

My primary goal as Commander in Chief is to ensure that America at the end of my term as president is a country that people can believe in, this is why my primary goal will be ballot measures on anything that the Congress and Senate cannot agree on. Whenever we have had deadlock with the opposition controlling two branches of the Government, people moan that "nothing gets done", ballot measures will mean that the will of the people will be shown.

The long term aim is to break the two party system that exists in this nation, and this is why I will be meeting Charles Kennedy, leader of the British Liberal Democrats this week. Since they won 46 MP's at the last general election, Liberal Democracy is being talked about in the United Kingdom to a level never before seen. That is what I hope to bring to the United States.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2000 Election Game- Interactive Timeline!! (Game Thread) on: December 27, 2015, 05:11:14 pm
Campaign Schedule
Monday: Fly to Key West, Florida
Tuesday: Campaign Speech at Key West on American / Cuban relations
Wednesday: Fly to Madawaska, Maine
Thursday: Campaign Speech at Madawaska on American / Canadian relations
Friday: Fly to London, United Kingdom
Saturday: Meet with Charles Kennedy MP, leader of the British Liberal Democrats
Sunday: Fly to Washington DC for interview on Fox News Sunday
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2000 Election Game- Interactive Timeline!! (Game Thread) on: December 26, 2015, 04:56:35 am


A message from Harry Browne, your Libertarian choice for President

First of all, may I wish you all a Happy New Year, and what a time it is to be an American? Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed out 1998 standing at 9,181 (an increase of 15% on the same position a year ago, consumer inflation is standing at just 1.61% and a mere 4.3% of the American workforce doesn't have a job. Now, you may ask "Yes, I can agree with all that, but those are all legacies of the incumbent president, why are you highlighting them?" to which I would reply "Because I want to ask you a question!"

"Are you happy?"

Are you happy with that fact that in America today it is possible for a man to be beaten and pistol-whipped and left to die on a fence in Wyoming? Are you happy that of the American police force only 12% are African American, 8% Hispanic, 2% identify as having another ethnic background and that only 10% are female? And are you happy that in 1998 according to Bureau of Labor Statistics 271,059 people in this nation, this great nation that we live in, live in poverty?

I'm not!

That is why I am announcing today that I am running for President of the United States and will, with your help, seek to make this country great again

This has been a message on behalf of the Vote Browne for President campaign
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2000 Election Game- Interactive Timeline!! on: December 25, 2015, 04:44:55 pm
I quite like the idea of this, therefore could I take Harry Browne (Libertarian-TN)
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: What are the worst electoral campaigns in history? on: October 29, 2015, 05:40:51 pm
Labour 1983 in the UK
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Newfoundland election, Nov 2015 on: October 24, 2015, 10:51:59 am
Here in Britain there are quite a few councils without an opposition (Manchester immediately springs to mind), can I ask if a provincial election has ever produced a literal one party state?
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015-2020 on: October 24, 2015, 10:49:06 am
First By-Election Changes 1950 - 2010
Sheffield, Neepsend (April 5th 1950): Con -0.34%, Lab -2.00%, Comm +2.34%
Bournemouth East and Christchurch (February 6th 1952): Con -1.45%, Lab -1.71%, Lib -1.49%, Ind +4.66%
Gateshead West (December 7th 1955): Con -1.13%, Lab +1.13%
Brighouse and Spenborough (March 17th 1960): Con +0.80%, Lab -0.80%
Harrow West (March 17th 1960): Con -15.14%, Lab -7.71%, Lib +18.15%, Ind +4.70%
Leyton (January 21st 1965): Con +9.42%, Lab -8.00%, Lib -2.23%, Ind +0.81%
Carmarthen (July 14th 1966): Con -4.62%, Lab -13.17%, Lib -4.92%, Plaid +22.71%
St. Marylebone (October 22nd 1970): Con +1.40%, Lab -2.32%, Lib -2.43%, Ind +0.97%, NF +2.38%
Newham South (May 23rd 1974): Con -1.10%, Lab -3.42%, Lib -2.30%, NF +4.59%, Ind Lab +2.23%
Woolwich West (June 26th 1975): Con +10.19%, Lab -5.03%, Lib -9.00%, Ind +0.12%, NF +2.42%, Ind Con +0.29%, Others +1.01%
Manchester Central (September 27th 1979): Con -10.09%, Lab -0.07%, Lib +8.90%, Green +1.22%, NF -1.83%, Others +1.88%
Penrith and the Border (July 28th 1983): Con -12.81%, Lab -5.84%, Alliance +16.71%, Others +1.94%
Glasgow, Govan (July 14th 1988): Con -4.55%, Lab -27.88%, Lib Dem +4.14%, SDP -12.29%, SNP +38.38%, Green +1.15%, Comm +0.30%, Others +0.75%
Kensington (July 14th 1988): Con -5.92%, Lab +4.89%, Lib Dem +10.77%, Lib +0.13%, SDP -12.21%, Green +0.73%, Others +1.60%
Newbury (May 6th 1993): Con -29.02%, Lab -3.97%, Lib Dem +27.76%, SDP +0.06%, UKIP +1.04%, Green -0.22%, Ind Con +0.46%, Others +3.90%
Uxbridge (July 31st 1997): Con +7.56%, Lab -2.52%, Lib Dem -5.28%, Lib +0.22%, UKIP -2.65%, BNP +0.99%, Others +1.68%
Ipswich (November 22nd 2001): Con -2.10%, Lab -7.97%, Lib Dem +7.24%, UKIP -0.60%, Green +0.93%, Ind +0.31%, Ind Lab -0.56%, Others +2.75%
Cheadle (July 14th 2005): Con +2.01%, Lab -4.16%, Lib Dem +3.27%, UKIP -1.03%, BNP -0.89%, Others +0.80%
Oldham East and Saddleworth (January 13th 2011): Con -13.62%, Lab +10.27%, Lib Dem +0.32%, UKIP +1.95%, Green +1.52%, BNP -1.25%, Others +0.82%
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2015 Canadian federal election-Official Predictions Thread Competition on: October 18, 2015, 11:14:34 am
Who wins PV: Liberals (36%)
Who wins most Seats: Liberals (134)

Battle Ground Seats:
St. John's South—Mount Pearl- Liberal GAIN
Central Nova- Conservative HOLD
Laurier—Sainte-Marie- New Democrat HOLD
Mount Royal- Liberal HOLD
Spadina—Fort York- Liberal GAIN
Eglinton—Lawrence- Liberal GAIN
Beaches—East York- Liberal GAIN
Toronto Centre- Liberal HOLD
Mississauga—Malton- Liberal GAIN
Sudbury- New Democrat HOLD
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa- Conservative HOLD
Regina—Lewvan- Conservative GAIN
Lethbridge- Conservative HOLD
Edmonton Centre- Liberal GAIN
Edmonton Griesbach- Conservative HOLD
St. Albert—Edmonton- Conservative HOLD
Calgary Centre- Conservative HOLD
Delta- Conservative HOLD
South Surrey—White Rock- Conservative HOLD
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam- Conservative HOLD
North Vancouver- Liberal GAIN
Vancouver South- Liberal GAIN
Vancouver Granville- Liberal GAIN
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country- Liberal GAIN
North Island—Powell River- Conservative HOLD
Victoria- New Democrat HOLD

Final Section Please list up to  five pickups for each major Party other then the ones listed, if yoy feel their will not be please state that.

Liberal GAINS: Ajax, Alfred-Pellan, Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, Avalon, Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapedia
Conservative GAINS: Cowichan—Malahat—Langford, Regina—Lewvan, Saanich—Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: British Elections 1950-1970 on: September 14, 2015, 10:06:00 am
I am very slowly working my way through these elections (and by-elections) and am still only halfway through 1951! But that said, here's the complete tally of results for 1950

Great Britain
Labour 13,197,830 votes (46.80%) winning 313 seats
Conservatives 12,173,457 votes (43.17%) winning 291 seats
Liberals 2,624,506 votes (9.31%) winning 9 seats
Communists 89,665 votes (0.32%) winning 0 seats
Independents 42,804 votes (0.15%) winning 0 seats
Independent Labour 30,507 votes (0.11%) winning 0 seats
Plaid Cymru 19,722 votes (0.07%) winning 0 seats
Scottish National Party 12,584 votes (0.04%) winning 0 seats
Anti-Partition Candidates 5,045 votes (0.02%) winning 0 seats
Independent Conservatives 3,411 votes (0.01%) winning 0 seats
Socialists 933 votes (0.00%) winning 0 seats
Social Credit 551 votes (0.00%) winning 0 seats
Christian Democrat 503 votes (0.00%) winning 0 seats
Turnout: 84.07%

Northern Ireland
Ulster Unionists 352,334 votes (62.76%) winning 10 seats
Labour 120,521 votes (21.47%) winning 0 seats
Sinn Fein 23,362 votes (4.16%) winning 0 seats
Irish Nationalists 65,211 votes (11.62%) winning 2 seats
Turnout: 77.48%

By-Elections
Labour 249,716 votes (49.55% -1.52% on 1950) winning 8 seats (unchanged)
Conservatives 248,960 votes (49.40% +6.51% on 1950) winning 6 seats (unchanged)
Liberals 2,752 votes (0.55% -4.83% on 1950) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Independent Labour 1,369 votes (0.27% +0.27% on 1950) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Communists 729 votes (0.14% -0.48% on 1950) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Total Votes Cast: 503,979 (-119,297 on 1950)
Independents 453 votes (0.09% +0.05% on 1950) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK - Alternate Coloring on: September 10, 2015, 07:51:17 am
What I find most interesting is the gradual greening of Pembrokeshire (Little England beyond Wales). Any suggestions why that might be?
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece parliamentary election - September 20, 2015 (well, maybe...) on: August 20, 2015, 03:38:55 pm
How much of this mess is down to the "winners bonus" rule they have in Greece of giving the winner of the election an extra fifty seats?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2015 Canadian federal election-Official Predictions Thread Competition on: August 08, 2015, 01:28:59 pm
Who wins most Seats: New Democrats (144)

Battle Ground Seats:
St. John's South—Mount Pearl- NDP HOLD
Central Nova- Con HOLD
Laurier—Sainte-Marie- NDP HOLD
Mount Royal- Lib HOLD
Spadina—Fort York- NDP HOLD
Eglinton—Lawrence- Lib GAIN from Con
Beaches—East York- NDP HOLD
Toronto Centre- Lib HOLD
Mississauga—Malton- Lib GAIN from Con
Sudbury- NDP HOLD
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa- Con HOLD
Regina—Lewvan- NDP HOLD
Lethbridge- NDP GAIN from Con
Edmonton Centre- NDP GAIN from Con
Edmonton Griesbach- NDP GAIN from Con
St. Albert—Edmonton- Con HOLD
Calgary Centre- Con HOLD
Delta- NDP GAIN from Con
South Surrey—White Rock- Con HOLD
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam- NDP GAIN from Con
North Vancouver- Lib GAIN from Con
Vancouver South- Lib GAIN from Con
Vancouver Granville- Lib GAIN from Con
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country- Con HOLD
North Island—Powell River- NDP GAIN from Con
Victoria- NDP HOLD
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK local by-elections 2015 on: June 12, 2015, 04:13:36 am
Wyre Forest, Areley Kings and Riverside

Lab 32.2 (633, 561, 532)
Con 32.0 (662, 564, 492)
ICHC 20.6 (404, 378, 326)
UKIP 11.5 (213, 209, 196)
Green 3.7 (66)

Sutton, Wallington South

Lib Dem 44.1 (+7.2)
Con 33.0 (+15.7)
Ind 6.4
Lab 6.4 (-2.2)
UKIP 5.8 (-11.Cool
Green 4.3 (-3.0)

Tower Hamlets, Stepney Green

Lab 42.1 (+14.1)
Not TH First 37.7 (-6.7)
Green 7.0 (-2.1)
UKIP 5.2 (-3.4)
Con 4.0 (-2.5)
Lib Dem 2.9 (-0.5)
Ind 1.0

Lab gain Stepney Green from TH First

and Labour GAIN Tower Hamlets from NOC to boot!
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Trinidad and Tobago : FIFA's hand? on: June 04, 2015, 02:38:21 am
Jack Warner (as part of the investigation into FIFA) has claimed this morning that FIFA had a direct hand in the elections held in Trinidad and Tobago in 2010. According to Wikipedia the results of that election were as follows:

People's Partnership Coalition 432,026 votes (60%) winning 29 seats
People's National Movement 285,354 votes (40% -6% on 2007) winning 12 seats (-14 seats)
Independents and Others 2,347 votes (0%) winning 0 seats

Wikipedia states that "The People's Partnership is a political coalition in Trinidad and Tobago among four political parties: the United National Congress, the Congress of the People, the Tobago Organization of the People, the National Joint Action Committee", In 2007, the UNC and Congress polled a total of 53%
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: England local elections, May 2015 on: May 31, 2015, 07:07:06 am
I have just finished tallying the results from the local elections (no thanks to the mass media who seemed to ignore it for some reason) and here are the final results

Conservatives 6,729 councillors (+417) winning 164 councils (+10)
Labour 4,225 councillors (-251) winning 72 councils (-56)
Liberal Democrats 1,153 councillors (-439) winning 4 councils (-4)
Independents 641 councillors (-143) winning 0 councils (unchanged)
United Kingdom Independence Party 336 councillors (+168) winning 1 council (+1)
Green Party 133 councillors (+7) winning 0 councils (unchanged)
Ratepayers 93 councillors (+1) winning 1 council (unchanged)
Other Parties 13 councillors (-13) winning 0 councils (unchanged)
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