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November 27, 2014, 05:46:45 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Elections coming up on: November 14, 2014, 04:02:50 pm
CNBC's floor correspondent on their programmes from the NYSE has suggested that Prime Minister Abe may scrap the proposed sales tax increase next week and may also call a snap general election.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Demographic makeup of state electorates (compared to past years) on: November 05, 2014, 05:17:32 pm
I didn't record CNN this year (as they didn't say on my EPG if they were covering the Mid Terms at all) but from what I saw of the exit polls at 0730 GMT this morning, I got the impression that the Latino turnout was down around 5% on 2012 and that the pensioner vote (over 65's) was up around 7%
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: BREAKING: Angus King will announce at 3:30 which party he plans to caucus with on: November 05, 2014, 05:14:53 pm
Could I ask when Sen King is next up for election?
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Guam Election Night 2014 on: November 04, 2014, 12:51:42 pm
Non Voting Congressional Delegate from Northern Marianas Islands (Ind in 2012, 100% precincts)
*Sablan (Independent) 3,621 votes (61% -19% on 2012)
Salas (Democrat) 2,253 votes 38% (no Dem candidate in 2012)
Independent HOLD with a majority of 1,368 votes (23%)

Non Voting Congressional Delegate from Guam (Dem in 2012, 97% precincts)
*Bordallo (Democrat) 19,679 votes (58% -2% on 2012)
Metcalfe (Republican) 14,189 votes (42% +3% on 2012)
Democrat HOLD with a majority of 5,490 votes (16%) on a swing of 2.5% to GOP

Ballot Measure (Guam) on Medicinal Cannabis (97% precincts)
YES 18,674 votes (56%), NO 14,453 votes (44%)
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Guam Election Night 2014 on: November 04, 2014, 04:21:17 am
Guam's polls closed at 0900 GMT (0400 EST) and the following positions are up for election.

Governor, the state House, a Congressman (who has no voting rights), two Judges, an AG, six members of the Education board, three members of the Utilities commission and a ballot measure on the legalisation of cannabis for medical use.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 29, 2014, 02:50:28 pm
Thank you for using the term "take off" as it has reminded me of these charts displayed during both the 1974 general elections which showed the % share needed for a Liberal "take off" and an SNP "take off" which sadly I cannot find online to post. Has anyone done a chart showing what it would take for UKIP to "take off"?
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Labour leadership election on: October 26, 2014, 05:42:23 pm
I can't see a Westminster MP going down at all well with the public.

The problem for Scottish Labour though is that all their MSPs are at best mediocrities.

Who can stand? MSP's, MP's, MEP's, Cllrs? If an MP was elected Scottish Labour leader that would make matters worse.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 17, 2014, 03:52:18 am
Could members weigh in on the following point (which was raised in a question I answered on All Experts.com)?

Ed Milliband currently has 258 MP's, in order to govern with a majority he only needs 321 MP's (a net gain of 63) or no less than 306 MP's (working in coalition with the Liberal Democrats or the SNP) (a net gain of 48)
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 03, 2014, 03:46:31 pm
Top 10 SNP Targets (ranked by swing)
1) Ochil and South Perthshire (5.14%)
2) Argyll and Bute (6.36%)
3) Gordon (6.92%)
4) Falkirk (7.72%)
5) Dundee West (9.80%)
6) North Ayrshire and Arran (10.73%)
7) Inverness (11.01%)
Cool Aberdeen North (11.09%)
9) Caithness (11.11%)
10) Livingston (11.26%)
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / National Senatorial Poll on: October 03, 2014, 09:14:30 am
Commisionned by: Fox News
Dates of sample: September 28th - 30th 2014
Sample Area: Senate Battleground States
Question: If the election for your Senator was held today, how would you vote?

Republican 53%
Democrat 38%

Margin of error: +/- 7%
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greenland parliamentary election - November 28, 2014 on: October 01, 2014, 04:08:57 pm
I don't want to be seen as criticising the people of Greenland but on November 28th 2014 but according to Geoclock (a computer programme that shows global times) the sun never rises over the town of Thule or Scoresbysund, there is only 4 hours of daylight in Sondre Stromfjord and Ammasalik and there is only 6 hours of daylight in Nuuk. They can't run a general election in those conditions surely!
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK parliamentary by-elections 2014 on: September 27, 2014, 12:11:11 pm
How similar is this seat to the Medway seat which Bob Marshall-Andrews narrowly held for Labour in 2005 (after conceding defeat)?  There must have been some changes if it was already notionally Tory, but it seems to have been very similar.

There haven't been any local elections to Medway council since 2011, and back then UKIP didn't have many candidates in the area, but that Euro result looks good for them.  (Anyone have any idea what the patterns are likely to be like within the council area?)

Trivia: Rochester is the only place in England to have lost city status.

According to UK-Elect (which takes the same data from the Press Association) the similarity is 15.10% (i.e nothing like the old Medway)
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK parliamentary by-elections 2014 on: September 27, 2014, 11:02:29 am
Result in 2010
Mark Reckless (Con) 23,604 (49% +6% on notional 2005)
Teresa Murray (Lab) 13,651 (28% -13% on notional 2005)
Geoffrey Juby (Lib Dem) 7,800 (16% +4% on notional 2005)
Ron Sands (Eng Dems) 2,182 (5% +5% on notional 2005)
Simon Marchant (Green) 734 (2%, no candidate in 2005)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 9,953 (21%) on a notional swing of 10% from Labour to Conservative

Medway Local Area Count Result : European Elections 2014
United Kingdom Independence Party 27,265 (42% +20% on 2009)
Conservatives 15,043 (23% -8% on 2009)
Labour 12,448 (19% +4% on 2009)
Green 3,684 (6% -2% on 2009)
Liberal Democrats 2,420 (4% -5% on 2009)
British National Party 761 (1% -7% on 2009)
Other Parties 3,480 (5% -3% on 2009)
UKIP GAIN from Con on a swing of 14% from Con to UKIP
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum prediction thread on: September 12, 2014, 04:05:04 pm
Turnout: Low 80's (83.5%)
Vote: YES 50.5% NO 49.5%
Implications: Cameron gets a vote of no confidence tabled against him which he wins (by 3) but is fatally damaged
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Senate election - September 28, 2014 on: September 09, 2014, 03:30:36 pm
That will give me something to tide me over until the Mid Terms I say (presumably live coverage on TV5 Monde and France 24?)
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 07, 2014, 03:16:22 pm
Scotland tie against the world champs in Germany!

That could make life a little interesting
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Westminster Parliamentary By-Election : Clacton (date to be announced) on: August 29, 2014, 06:22:57 am
Wouldn't shock me if they went for the Thursday of Labour conference. It'd nip any Labour bounce in the bud.

Unless Labour gained Clacton that is?
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Westminster Parliamentary By-Election : Clacton (date to be announced) on: August 28, 2014, 07:59:37 am
Ladbrooks by-election odds:

1/3 UKIP
5/2 Cons
10/1 Lab
100/1 LD

I wonder who else in the Tory ranks would be tempted to break ranks if all hell breaks loose. Michael Fabricant? Owen Patterson? Nadine Dories? Peter Bone? Dan Hannan?

You mean Dan Hannan the MEP (who cannot force a by-election due to the method of his election)?
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Westminster Parliamentary By-Election : Clacton (date to be announced) on: August 28, 2014, 06:50:54 am
The latest rumours swirling around Westminster are:

Coalition MP's are being whipped to reject the writ being moved
Chancellor to oppose signing the stewardship document that allows an MP to resign
Writ to be moved so that the by-election happens during the Liberal Democrat conference
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Westminster Parliamentary By-Election : Clacton (date to be announced) on: August 28, 2014, 05:31:02 am
Douglas Carswell MP (elected for the Clacton constituency in 2005) has announced this morning that not only is he defecting from the Conservatives to the United Kingdom Independence Party, but he will resigning his Westminster seat in order to fight the Clacton by-election as UKIP (which as you can imagine has taken a lot of people by surprise!)

Clacton
Douglas Carswell, Con    22867   53.02%
Ivan Henderson, Lab    10799   25.04%
Michael Green, Lib Dem     5577   12.93%
Jim Taylor, BNP     1975    4.57%
Terry Allen, Tendring     1078    2.49%
Chris Southall, Green      535    1.24%
Christopher Humphrey, Ind      292    0.67%
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 12,068 (28%) on a swing of 9% from Labour to Conservative

This by-election is the first defection by-election since Mitcham and Morden in 1982 and could well be timed to cause maximum chaos for the Conservative Party Conference (due towards the end of September)
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: August 26, 2014, 03:11:28 pm
Sky News are reporting that they have seen an internal UKIP target list of 12 seats:

South Thanet now with added Nigel Farage for UKIP)
North Thanet
Sittingbourne & Sheppey
Worthing East & Shoreham

Eastleigh
Portsmouth South

Aylesbury
Forest of Dean
Thurrock
Great Yarmouth
Boston & Skegness

Great Grimsby

For which I get paid the grand sum of 66p via Paddy Power!
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: August 26, 2014, 11:33:48 am
Rhondda in 2001 remains the funniest instance to date, I think.

Labour 23,230 votes (68% -7% on 1997)
Plaid Cymru 7,183 votes (21% +8% on 1997)
Conservatives 1,557 votes (5% +1% on 1997)
Liberal Democrats 1,525 votes (4% -2% on 1997)
Independent 507 votes (1%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 16,047 votes (47%) on a swing of 7% from Lab to Plaid

Am I missing something here, because that doesn't sound funny at all?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhondda_%28Assembly_constituency%29#Elections_in_the_1990s

Also, why did Plaid win Rhondda anyway?

Oh, you mean Rhondda 1999 not Rhondda 2001.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: August 26, 2014, 04:06:03 am
Rhondda in 2001 remains the funniest instance to date, I think.

Labour 23,230 votes (68% -7% on 1997)
Plaid Cymru 7,183 votes (21% +8% on 1997)
Conservatives 1,557 votes (5% +1% on 1997)
Liberal Democrats 1,525 votes (4% -2% on 1997)
Independent 507 votes (1%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 16,047 votes (47%) on a swing of 7% from Lab to Plaid

Am I missing something here, because that doesn't sound funny at all?
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election Results The UK Public Probably Regretted on: August 15, 2014, 04:38:54 pm
They regretted electing a parliament where no one party had a majority and wished that they had given a party a majority instead
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: August 14, 2014, 04:35:46 pm
The effect of "fracking" at the next election (for the attention of Mr. Teale)

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