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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Forum turnout poll: Will you/Would you vote in the EP elections next month ? on: April 15, 2014, 02:23:58 pm
Yes, for Alec Dauncey in the Welsh electoral region
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK local by-elections 2014 on: April 12, 2014, 01:16:44 pm
Am I correct in assuming no Maundy Thursday by-elections then?
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread on: April 05, 2014, 04:00:07 pm
Using the data from the 2012 elections, I've made this map of the Mid Western states

and have highlighted those with a lead of less than 2.5%. Can these be called "battlegrounds" or is there more to it than that?
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Municipal Elections 2014: Hashemite's Guide and Official Thread on: March 31, 2014, 08:25:09 am
There was indeed a national projected vote share published (which came as a surprise). The tally was Right 46%, Left 41%, Far Right 7%, Others 7%.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Municipal Elections 2014: Hashemite's Guide and Official Thread on: March 30, 2014, 01:20:48 pm
In the UK after a local election, the BBC produce a national projected vote share. Does French television do the same?
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: English local elections, May 2014 on: March 28, 2014, 05:46:28 pm
I'd be very interested in your thoughts on Nuneaton and Bedworth
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election, 2014 on: January 25, 2014, 05:51:52 pm
Has a date been set for the by-election? As a precaution I shall be watching BBC North West Tonight from Monday onwards.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK - 1970 vs 1974 Boundaries on: January 15, 2014, 08:28:44 am
Was a proper study of the effects of 1971 boundary changes (relative to the 1970 election) ever done? David Boothroyd's site lists how the changes affected numbers of seats (from 330-288 to 342-281) as well as seats that changed hands based on the new boundaries, which suggests that exact figures similar to those available for 1983 & 1997 were calculated, but I've not seen such figures anywhere.

At the start of the February 1974 BBC election results programme they produce two things of note. One is a published calculation of how the boundary changes affected the various parties (Con 338, Lab 284, Lib 6, Others 7) and they say that the BBC produced a complete calculation published by the BBC's Political Unit. Despite several phone calls to the BBC Archives department that book seems to have disappeared from the annals of history
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Homely's UK Maps Thread on: January 12, 2014, 07:47:59 am
These are the 15 English wards with the highest Muslim population:

Rank% MuslimWardCity
185.3%BASTWELLBlackburn
277.7%SHEAR BROWBlackburn
377.3%WASHWOOD HEATHBirmingham
476.3%DANESHOUSE WITH STONEYHULMEBurnley
576.1%TOLLERBradford
675.0%MANNINGHAMBradford
773.9%BORDESLEY GREENBirmingham
872.8%BRADFORD MOORBradford
970.2%SPARKBROOKBirmingham
1069.8%WHITEFIELDPendle
1169.6%SPINNEY HILLSLeicester
1268.9%AUDLEYBlackburn
1368.2%WERNETHOldham
1467.1%MILKSTONE AND DEEPLISHRochdale
1564.7%PARKHalifax

The highest Muslim population in a Greater London ward is 50.4% - Green Street West in Newham - and comes in at no. 36 on the list for the whole of England.



And as of the last set of elections in 2012, how many of them have a Respect councillor and how many of them in 2012 were Labour GAIN from Respect?
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK North - South Divide on: November 08, 2013, 09:52:45 am
Notional Election 1979
Northern England (North West, North East, Yorkshire)
Con 61, Lab 100, Lib 2
Southern England (East Anglia, London, South East, South West)
Con 159, Lab 15, Lib 3

Notional Election 1983
Northern England (North West, North East, Yorkshire)
Con 68, Lab 89, All 6
Southern England (East Anglia, South East, South West)
Con 169, Lab 3, All 5
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Anglesey (Ynys Mon) Assembly By-Election 2013 on: June 30, 2013, 04:54:59 pm
The Lib Dems have selected Steve Churchman as their candidate for the by-election.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Anglesey (Ynys Mon) Assembly By-Election 2013 on: June 23, 2013, 10:45:48 am
Martin Bell won Tatton in 1997, so why not? There is one other Plaid person seeking the nomination and that is Heledd Fychan who stood in Montgomeryshire at the general election and polled 8.28% (Plaid's highest level of support since 1992)
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Anglesey (Ynys Mon) Assembly By-Election 2013 on: June 23, 2013, 08:58:25 am
Rhun ap Iowerth (who has been in charge of BBC Wales's election maps since 2003) has announced that he has resigned from the BBC to contest the Plaid nomination for Ynys Mon



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-23021568
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Aberdeen Donside by-election (Holyrood) on: June 21, 2013, 04:37:02 pm
Here's the constituency forecast based on Aberdeen, Donside (Orkney and Shetland are both Lib Dem HOLDS)
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Aberdeen Donside by-election (Holyrood) on: June 21, 2013, 01:20:55 pm
Full Result
Mark McDonald, SNP     9814   41.97%
Willie Young, Lab     7789   33.31%
Christine Jardine, Lib Dem     1940    8.29%
Ross Thomson, Con     1791    7.66%
Otto Inglis, UKIP     1128    4.82%
Rhonda Reekie, Green      410    1.75%
Dave MacDonald, NF      249    1.06%
Tom Morrow, SCHP      222    0.94%
James Trolland, Ind       35    0.14%
SNP HOLD with a majority of 2,025 (8.66%) on a swing from SNP to Lab of 9.10%
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Anglesey (Ynys Mon) Assembly By-Election 2013 on: June 20, 2013, 01:03:40 pm
Ieuan Wyn Jones formally resigned today (in writing to the Presiding Officer) and the Plaid whip in the Assembly announced that polling will take place on August 1st. That says that Plaid are running scared of Labour on Anglesey.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Anglesey (Ynys Mon) Assembly By-Election 2013 on: June 18, 2013, 03:58:39 pm
Not very scientific, but here's the results for both Cardiff and Westminster recently



Very impressive, but just like Ceredigion I think it is safe to assume that it has different Westminster and Assembly voting patterns
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Anglesey (Ynys Mon) Assembly By-Election 2013 on: June 18, 2013, 01:13:40 am
Anglesey (Ynys Mon) 1999 - 2011
1999: Plaid 53% Lab 23% Con 19% Lib Dem 5%
2003: Plaid 37% Con 28% Lab 24% Lib Dem 8% UKIP 2%
2007: Plaid 40% Ind (former Con) 23% Lab 17% Con 13% Lib Dem 3% UKIP 3%
2011: Plaid 41% Con 29% Lab 26% Lib Dem 3%

Anglesey (Ynys Mon) Local Elections 2004 - 2013
2004: Ind 65% Plaid 22% Lab 6% Lib Dem 4% Con 3%
2008: Ind 55% Plaid 21% Lab 13% Con 5% Lib Dem 4% Rates 2% UKIP 0%
2013: Plaid 32% Ind 32% Lab 17% UKIP 7% Con 6% Lib Dem 5%
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Anglesey (Ynys Mon) Assembly By-Election 2013 on: June 17, 2013, 05:03:49 pm
It is being reported that Ieuan Wyn Jones AM (Plaid Cymru, Ynys Mon) is to announce his immediate retirement from Welsh politics and to stand down as the Assembly member. (Source: BBC News  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-229448360

In 2011, he had a majority of 12% over Con and 15% over Lab (and my immediate thoughts are General Election 2001 all over again)
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: India 2014 on: June 17, 2013, 01:27:44 pm
Every time I switch on NDTV 24x7 they are always talking about who's defecting to whom and who should be PM.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: EP elections 2014 on: June 11, 2013, 04:14:54 pm
It seems there was another Survation poll this month too, to add them in:

ComRes
Jan:
LAB 35% (+19), UKIP 23% (+6), CON 22% (-6), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 5% (-3), Others 8% (-9)
May:
UKIP 27% (+11), LAB 23% (+7), CON 21% (-7), LDEM 18% (+4), GRN 5% (-3), Others 6% (-11)

Survation:
Jan:
LAB 31% (+15), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 22% (+5), LDEM 11% (-3), GRN 6% (-2), Others 6% (-11)
May:
LAB 31% (+15), UKIP 30% (+13), CON 20% (-8), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 6% (-2), Others 5% (-12)

YouGov:
LAB 36% (+20), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 19% (+2), LDEM 12% (-2), GRN 6% (-2), Others 3% (-14)

lol

Averaging them you get: Con 22%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 13%, UKIP 25%, Greens 6%, Others 4%

which would give you: Lab 25, UKIP 18, Con 16, Lib Dem 7, SNP 2, Green 2

I take it Nick Griffin won't retain his seat?

That's correct. Both BNP seats are Labour gains.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: EP elections 2014 on: June 11, 2013, 01:54:37 pm
It seems there was another Survation poll this month too, to add them in:

ComRes
Jan:
LAB 35% (+19), UKIP 23% (+6), CON 22% (-6), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 5% (-3), Others 8% (-9)
May:
UKIP 27% (+11), LAB 23% (+7), CON 21% (-7), LDEM 18% (+4), GRN 5% (-3), Others 6% (-11)

Survation:
Jan:
LAB 31% (+15), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 22% (+5), LDEM 11% (-3), GRN 6% (-2), Others 6% (-11)
May:
LAB 31% (+15), UKIP 30% (+13), CON 20% (-8), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 6% (-2), Others 5% (-12)

YouGov:
LAB 36% (+20), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 19% (+2), LDEM 12% (-2), GRN 6% (-2), Others 3% (-14)

lol

Averaging them you get: Con 22%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 13%, UKIP 25%, Greens 6%, Others 4%

which would give you: Lab 25, UKIP 18, Con 16, Lib Dem 7, SNP 2, Green 2
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election, 2015 on: June 10, 2013, 08:30:13 am
Could I ask how the boundary changes are coming along (and by association calculation of the notionals from 2011 as well)?

The notionals are usually calculated by Elections Canada, once the map is finalised in all provinces. For now, it's finished in Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Manitoba and Alberta.

Ontario, Quebec, Saskatchewan and British Columbia are left (the three biggest provinces and the one which current map is a blatant gerrymanderer and than Government is fighting to keep).

Official website: http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?document=home&lang=e

I have just phoned Elections Canada and they have said that they will send me the information about the new ridings when they are formally published however, they said that they had NOTHING to do with the notionals. Perhaps if I explain what I mean by notionals, someone will tell me where such information is kept.

"Notionals" in the UK are the name given to calculations done by the University of Plymouth (headed by Prof. Thrasher and Rallings) where each new riding is calculated as if it existed at the last election) as we had at the last election. It is THESE calculations that I am looking for
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: June 09, 2013, 02:41:56 am
My feelings are that there will be a minimum 11% swing from Lib Dem to Lab (and by association a 5.5% swing from Con to Lab which is amost what they need anyway to win). According to UK-Elect the effect of an 11% swing from Lib Dem to Lab would be:

Labour 348 Conservatives 257 Liberal Democrats 21 Northern Ireland 18 SNP 5 Plaid 1

which is a Labour majority of 40 or so before you have any swing from Con to Lab
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Aberdeen Donside by-election (Holyrood) on: June 08, 2013, 02:42:40 pm
Here's Aberdeen, Donside constituency


and how it compares to the Westminster seats


(Red is Aberdeen North, Yellow is Gordon)
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