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1  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: First Annual World Series of Electoral Knowledge on: May 23, 2015, 10:14:32 am
Not entirely sure what this relates to but why not?
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK Post-Election Analysis on: May 18, 2015, 04:01:00 am
This was my final forecast map


and here is what actually happened
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: And it's back again (Shrinking the House : Take Two) on: May 16, 2015, 03:56:23 am
I have managed to complete the calculations (based on the estimates that Electoral Calculus did) of the proposed 600 seat house and this is how that election would have turned out:

Conservatives 317 seats (+21 seats)
Labour 209 seats (-25 seats)
Scottish National Party 51 seats (+45 seats)
Democratic Unionist Party 8 seats (unchanged)
Sinn Fein 5 seats (unchanged)
Liberal Democrats 3 seats (-44 seats)
Plaid Cymru 3 seats (+2 seats)
SDLP 2 seats (unchanged)
Green Party 1 seat (+1 seat)
Independent 1 seat (unchanged)
Conservative majority of 34

The gains from the notional election of 2010 and 2015 are (excluding Scotland which saw the SNP win every single seat bar Orkney and Shetland)

Con GAINS: Balham and Tooting (Lab), Bath (Lib Dem), Battersea and Vauxhall (Lab), Berwick, Alnwick and Morpeth (Lib Dem), Bodmin and St. Austell (Lib Dem), Bolton West (Lab), Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery (Lib Dem), Carshalton and Couldson (Lib Dem), Cheadle (Lib Dem), Cheltenham (Lib Dem), Colchester (Lib Dem), Devon North (Lib Dem), Eastbourne (Lib Dem), Eastleigh (Lib Dem), Gloucestershire South East (Lib Dem), Hampton (Lib Dem), Hazel Grove and Poyton (Lib Dem), Kingston and Surbiton (Lib Dem), Norfolk North (Lib Dem), Plymouth Devonport (Lab), Richmond and Twickenham (Lib Dem), Solihull (Lib Dem), Somerton and Frome (Lib Dem), Southampton Itchen (Lab), Southport (Lib Dem), St. Ives (Lib Dem), Stockton South (Lab), Sutton and Cheam (Lib Dem), Taunton (Lib Dem), Torbay (Lib Dem), Truro and Newquay (Lib Dem), Yeovil (Lib Dem)
Lab GAINS: Bermondsey and South Bank (Lib Dem), Bristol West (Lib Dem), Cambridge (Lib Dem), Cardiff Central (Lib Dem), Chester (Con), Croydon East (Con), Dewsbury (Con), Enfield North (Con), Hornsey and Wood Green (Lib Dem), Hove (Con), Luton North and Dunstable (Con), Manchester Withington (Lib Dem), Norwich South (Lib Dem), Otley (Con), Redcar (Lib Dem), Sheffield Hallam and Penistone (Lib Dem), Shipley (Con), Southampton Test (Con), Willesden (Lib Dem), Wirral Deeside (Con),
Green GAINS: Brighton, Pavillion (Lab)
Plaid GAINS: Carmarthen (Lab), Ynys Môn ac Bangor (Lab),
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: National Assembly of Wales Elections 2016 on: May 13, 2015, 02:23:45 pm
It just so happens I have done a calculation of the Assembly (on the proviso of a 100% transfer from constituency to regional list, which has never happened):

Wales North Constituencies: Labour 5, Conservatives 3, Plaid Cymru 1
Wales North Regional List Votes: Labour 107,722, Conservatives 100,103, UKIP 44,392, Plaid 42,637 (No other parties qualify)
Wales North Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Con win the second seat, UKIP win the third seat, Plaid win the fourth seat (UKIP 2, Con 1, Plaid 1)

Mid and West Wales Constituencies: Conservatives 4, Plaid Cymru 2, Labour 1, Liberal Democrats 1
Mid and West Wales Regional List Votes: Conservatives 90,209, Labour 63,798, Plaid 56,382, Liberal Democrats 39,219, UKIP 33,649 (No other parties qualify)
Mid and West Wales Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Lab win the second seat, Lib Dem win the third seat, Plaid win the fourth seat (UKIP 1, Lab 1, Lib Dem 1, Plaid 1)

Wales South West Constituencies: Labour 6, Conservatives 1
Wales South West Regional List Votes: Labour 113,582, Conservatives 56,685, UKIP 37,692, Plaid 25,540 (No other parties qualify)
Wales South West Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Con win the second seat, Plaid win the third seat, UKIP win the fourth seat (UKIP 2, Con 1, Plaid 1)

Wales South Central Constituencies: Labour 6, Conservatives 2
Wales South Central Regional List Votes: Labour 135,592, Conservatives 86,878, UKIP 37,346, Plaid 34,629, Lib Dem 24,338 (No other parties qualify)
Wales South Central Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Plaid win the second seat, Con win the third seat, Lib Dem win the fourth seat (UKIP 1, Plaid 1, Con 1, Lib Dem 1)

Wales South East Constituencies: Labour 7, Conservatives 1
Wales South East Regional List Votes: Labour 131,779, Conservatives 73,938, UKIP 51,251, Plaid 22,516 (No other parties qualify)
Wales South East Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Con win the second seat, UKIP win the third seat, Plaid win the fourth seat (UKIP 2, Con 1, Plaid 1)

Constituencies Won: Labour 25, Conservatives 11, Plaid Cymru 3, Liberal Democrats 1
Regional List Members Elected: Labour 1, Conservatives 4, Plaid Cymru 5, Liberal Democrats 2, UKIP 8
Total Assembly Members: Labour 26, Conservatives 15, Plaid Cymru 8, UKIP 8, Liberal Democrats 3 (Labour short of a majority by 5)
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / National Assembly of Wales Elections 2016 on: May 12, 2015, 11:26:03 am
Seeing as Scotland already has a thread let's not forget Wales.

Result of Assembly Elections 2011
Labour 42% constituencies, 37% regional list winning 28 constituencies and 2 regionals
Conservatives 25% constituencies, 23% regional list winning 6 constituencies and 8 regionals
Plaid Cymru 19% constituencies, 18% regional list winning 5 constituencies and 6 regionals
Liberal Democrats 11% constituencies, 8% regional list winning 1 constituency and 4 regionals
No other party won AM's
United Kingdom Independence Party 5% regional list
Green Party 3% regional list
Socialist Labour 2% regional list
British National Party 2% regional list
Other Parties 3% constituencies, 2% regional list

There has been polling conducted by ITV by YouGov, however it is nothing like as regular as that in Scotland. The last poll was published on March 9th and suggested:

Constituency Vote: Labour 37% (-5%) Conservatives 22% (-3%) Plaid Cymru 20% (+1%) United Kingdom Independence Party 11% (no constituency candidates in 2011) Liberal Democrats 6% (-5%) Other Parties 5% (+3%)

Regional List Vote: Labour 33% (-4%) Conservatives 22% (-1%) Plaid Cymru 21% (+3%) United Kingdom Independence Party 12% (+7%) Green Party 5% (-1%)Liberal Democrats 5% (-3%) Other Parties 2% (-5%)

A forecast produced by Prof. Roger Scully of Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre suggests that Labour would win 28 seats (26 and 2), Conservatives 14 (6 and Cool, Plaid Cymru 11 (6 and 5), UKIP 5 (all regional list) and the Lib Dems 2 (2 and 0) which would mean that Labour would be three short of a majority and that either a Lab led coalition, rainbow coalition or Lab minority administration would the result.
6  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: And it's back again (Shrinking the House : Take Two) on: May 11, 2015, 09:41:57 am
These are the electorates (and averages) for Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales

Northern Ireland: 1,236,687 = 18 seats = 68,705 electors per seat
Scotland: 4,099,926 = 59 seats = 69,490 electors per seat
Wales: 2,282,297 = 40 seats = 57,057 electors per seat
Average so far: 7,618,910 = 117 seats = 65,118 electors per seat

England (by it's sheer size) will take a lot longer to tally but when I have done, I shall post the regional tallies
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Parliament election - 2016 on: May 10, 2015, 01:29:39 pm
UK-Elect's forecast gives: SNP 65, Lab 32, Con 16, Green 8, Lib Dem 6, Ind 2 (SNP short by 4)

And no, you are not too early in the slightest.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: England local elections, May 2015 on: May 10, 2015, 06:31:24 am
North Warwickshire: Con 22, Lab 13 (Con GAIN from Lab)
Sedgemoor: Con 35, Lab 10, UKIP 2, Lib Dem 1 (Con HOLD)
St. Edmundsbury: Con 36, UKIP 4, Lab 2, Ind 2, Green 1 (Con HOLD)
Stratford upon Avon: Con 31, Lib Dem 3, Lab 1, Ind 1 (Con win on new boundaries)
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Aberdeenshire West by-election pending? on: May 10, 2015, 06:27:48 am
Would I be correct in assuming that because the SNP have banned "double jobbing", we now have a by-election in Aberdeenshire West pending?
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: How would you reform and redraw UK local government? on: May 09, 2015, 05:02:36 pm
And Wales?
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: The UK General Election Prediction Thread on: May 09, 2015, 06:23:29 am
Quote
Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP, Glasgow North- SNP, Stirling- SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed- Con, Stockton South - Lab, Redcar- Lab

Bury North- Lab, Southport- Lib Dem, Heywood and Middleton- Lab

Rotherham- Lab, Colne Valley- Con, Bradford West- Lab,  Sheffield Hallam- Lib Dem

Boston and Skegness- Con, Broxtowe- Lab, Loughborough- Con

Worcester- Con, Dudley South - Con, Warwickshire North- Lab

Ynys Mon- Lab, Ceredigion- Lib Dem, Vale of Glamorgan- Con

Camborne and Redruth- Con, Bristol West- Lib Dem, Wells- Con

Brighton Pavillion- Green, Thanet South- Con, Rochester and Strood- Con

Kingston and Surbiton - Lib Dem, Battersea- Con, Enfield North- Lab

Norwich South- Lab, Clacton- Con, Thurrock- Lab

Emboldened equals correct
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / And it's back again (Shrinking the House : Take Two) on: May 08, 2015, 04:33:32 pm
(Source: 2015 Conservative Manifesto)

Quote
In the next Parliament, we will address the unfairness of the current Parliamentary boundaries, reduce the number of MPs to 600 to cut the cost of politics and make votes of more equal value. We will implement the boundary reforms that Parliament has already approved and make them apply automatically once the Boundary Commission reports in 2018

I will be buying a copy of the newspapers tomorrow and tallying up the election (both on the 2015 boundaries and the aborted 2013 boundaries) but there is nothing to stop the experts here (who I know had a wonderful time last time) creating their dream 600 seat Parliament.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Where Can I Watch Election Results on: May 05, 2015, 04:25:50 pm
Keep in mind that unlike practically everywhere else, unless they've changed it, the U.K does not release partial election results, but only announces the result when all the polls have have been counted. All the candidates appear on a stage together when the results are announced.  This has made for some amusing television seeing some of the candidates of the Monster Raving Loony Party on the stage.

Nope, it's still the same. A result is "declared" when all the votes cast have been verified, counted and recounted (if need be)
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Where Can I Watch Election Results on: May 05, 2015, 07:13:52 am
Does Channel 4 stream their coverage online? I want to watch David Mitchell. As long as they are streaming, it should be possible to watch with the Hola app.

Not sure, Channel 4 does have a on demand service called All 4 so I would suggest that is the first place that you visit.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Where Can I Watch Election Results on: May 05, 2015, 02:27:43 am
The C-Span website has an archive and looking at it for past elections, it will either be simulcast LIVE or on a delay

Election 1987
http://www.c-span.org/video/?172356-1/bbc-election-coverage

Election 1992
http://www.c-span.org/video/?25480-1/british-elections (Kinnock wins in rehearsals)
http://www.c-span.org/video/?25485-1/bbc-british-election-coverage (Actual Results)

Election 1997
http://www.c-span.org/video/?80761-1/british-election-results (Overnight Results)
http://www.c-span.org/video/?80915-1/british-election-results (Change of Government)

Election 2001
http://www.c-span.org/video/?164629-1/british-election-results

Election 2005
http://www.c-span.org/video/?186553-4/2005-british-election (David Dimbleby interviewed during rehearsals)
http://www.c-span.org/video/?186422-1/bbc-election-night-coverage (Overnight coverage, simulcast on C-Span 2)

Election 2010
http://www.c-span.org/video/?293363-1/british-election-results-early-returns (Exit Poll - 0100 BST)
http://www.c-span.org/video/?293363-101/british-election-results-continued-returns (0100 BST - 0600 BST)
http://www.c-span.org/video/?293387-1/british-election-results-late-returns (0600 BST - 0900 BST)
http://www.c-span.org/video/?293387-1/british-election-results-late-returns (Washington's take on Election 2010)
http://www.c-span.org/video/?293387-101/british-election-results-continued-late-returns (Cameron's and Brown's statements)
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: The UK General Election Prediction Thread on: May 03, 2015, 04:47:34 am
Final Forecast
Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 34.98%
Labour - 32.65%
Liberal Democrats - 8.53%
UKIP - 13.53%
Greens - 4.94%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4.91% (SNP 4.31%, Plaid 0.60%)

Seats

Conservatives - 276
Labour - 266
Liberal Democrats - 25
UKIP - 3
Greens - 1
SNP- 57
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 0
Other- 19

Likely Government - SNP hold the balance (Current Coalition 310 with DUP support, Alternative Coalition 298)

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 25.16% winning 1 seat
SNP - 50.16% winning 57 seats
Liberal Democrats - 6.29% winning 1 seat
Conservative - 14.93% winning 0 seats
Greens - 1.74% winning 0 seats
UKIP - 1.70% winning 0 seats
Others - 0.02% winning 0 seats

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon - SNP
Glasgow North - SNP
Stirling - SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed - Conservative
Stockton South - Labour
Redcar - Labour

Bury North - Labour
Southport - Liberal Democrats
Heywood and Middleton - Labour

Rotherham - Labour
Colne Valley - Conservative
Bradford West - Labour
Sheffield Hallam - Liberal Democrats

Boston and Skegness - Conservative
Broxtowe - Labour
Loughborough - Conservative

Worcester - Conservative
Dudley South - Conservative
Warwickshire North - Labour

Ynys Mon - Labour
Ceredigion - Liberal Democrats
Vale of Glamorgan - Conservative

Camborne and Redruth - Conservative
Bristol West - Labour
Wells - Conservative

Brighton Pavillion - Green
Thanet South - UKIP
Rochester and Strood - Conservative

Kingston and Surbiton - Liberal Democrats
Battersea - Conservative
Enfield North - Labour

Norwich South - Labour
Clacton - UKIP
Thurrock - UKIP
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: May 03, 2015, 04:38:52 am


Final Forecast for Prediction Competition (Entry to be updated shortly)
Conservatives 264 (leading in 21)
Labour 244 (leading in 22)
SNP 55 (leading in 2)
Lib Dem 20 (leading in 5)
DUP 9 (leading in 0)
SF 5 (leading in 0)
Plaid 3 (leading in 0)
SDLP 3 (leading in 0)
Green 1 (leading in 0)
Ind 1 (leading in 0)
Speaker 1 (leading in 0)
UKIP 1 (leading in 2)

Coalition Builder:
Con + Lib Dem + Unionists = 310
Lab + Lib Dem + SDLP + Plaid + Green = 298

SNP hold the balance of power
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: The UK General Election Prediction Thread on: May 01, 2015, 11:19:19 am
Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 34.41%
Labour - 31.87%
Liberal Democrats - 8.10%
UKIP - 14.36%
Greens - 5.19%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4.98% (SNP 4.11%, Plaid 0.87%)

Seats

Conservatives - 284
Labour - 282
Liberal Democrats - 23
UKIP - 0
Greens - 1
SNP- 37
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 0
Other- 20 (Northern Ireland 18, Speaker 1, National Health Action 1)

Likely Government - Con + Lib Dem with DUP/UUP supply and confidence

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour 37% winning 21 seats
SNP 47% winning 37 seats
Liberal Democrats 5% winning 1 seat
Conservative 9% winning 0 seats
Greens 1% winning 0 seats
UKIP 1% winning 0 seats
Others 0% winning 0 seats

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP
Glasgow North- SNP
Stirling- SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed- Con
Stockton South - Lab
Redcar- Lab

Bury North- Lab
Southport- Lib Dem
Heywood and Middleton- Lab

Rotherham- Lab
Colne Valley- Con
Bradford West- Lab
Sheffield Hallam- Lib Dem

Boston and Skegness- Con
Broxtowe- Lab
Loughborough- Con

Worcester- Con
Dudley South - Con
Warwickshire North- Lab

Ynys Mon- Lab
Ceredigion- Lib Dem
Vale of Glamorgan- Con

Camborne and Redruth- Con
Bristol West- Lib Dem
Wells- Con

Brighton Pavillion- Green
Thanet South- Con
Rochester and Strood- Con

Kingston and Surbiton - Lib Dem
Battersea- Con
Enfield North- Lab

Norwich South- Lab
Clacton- Con
Thurrock- Lab
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 28, 2015, 12:44:24 pm


Conservatives 274 (leading in 19)
Labour 246 (leading in 23)
Scottish National Party 35 (leading in 6)
Liberal Democrats 18 (leading in 5)
Democratic Unionists 9 (leading in 0)
Sinn Fein 5 (leading in 0)
Plaid Cymru 3 (leading in 0)
SDLP 3 (leading in 0)
Alliance 0 (leading in 0)
Green 1 (leading in 0)
Independent 1 (leading in 0)
National Health Action 1 (leading in 0)
Speaker 1 (leading in 0)
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK local by-elections 2015 on: April 23, 2015, 10:18:17 am
There is to be a by-election for the mayor of Tower Hamlets after the incumbent elected in 2014 was removed by an election court in London today http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-32428648
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 23, 2015, 02:06:32 am

As with all manifestoes published during this campaign, I have been interested in the financial aspects.

"The Children of the Atom also proposes a new tax system with a single 10 per cent annual tax on all electronic bank deposits and issued notes and coins. It also proposes a universal payment to everyone for life, from birth to death, of £27,000. Under the Seed scheme there will be free childcare provision, education and training for everyone until the age of 21"

According to the latest data I can find, M0 in April 2015 (the money supply of the UK) is running at £71½ billion, therefore a ten percent tax rate would produce £7.15 billion which during a year would generate £85.8 billion in tax revenues. Assuming a population in the UK of around 60 million, the bill for the universal payment would be £1.62 trillion a year.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 22, 2015, 03:51:37 pm
I almost don't know why I'm posting this as it's a) by ComRes and b) is a marginals poll (urgh). But because I'm good to you...

This is apparently a poll of UKIP target seats.* Results and changes on 2010 are:

Conservatives 39% (-7.3)
Labour 28% (+1.7)
UK Independence Party 21% (+15.4)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-10.2)
Green Party 4% (+3.6)
Others 3% (-0.8)

As all of these are coastal (well... estuarial in a couple of cases but that's close enough...) there's plenty of salt around to help those numbers go down!

*South Thanet, Boston and Skegness, Thurrock, Forest of Dean, Great Yarmouth, North Thanet, East Worthing and Shoreham, Sittingbourne and Sheppey, South Basildon and East Thurrock, and Castle Point.

UK-Elect says all of them would be Con HOLDS. Best result is in Castle Point (30%), worse reslt is in Thanet South (18%)
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 19, 2015, 05:26:58 pm
How do you make those maps, I know using google earth? Apologies if it's been mentioned elsewhere....

And an SNP-Labour-Green coalition is looking likely. The latter if they gain a few more seats.

Yes, they are based on Google Earth but that is not who made them. They were made by the person who runs the Tally Room website (http://www.tallyroom.com.au/) and they have been a complete godsend since I discovered them in 2009. The colours have been sourced from the BBC's official website (and therefore will be colouring in the maps on election night) with once exception. Alliance was given a colour by the BBC in 2010 but this time around have been consigned to "Others" which is grey.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 19, 2015, 02:38:27 pm
Another UKIP question.  Doesn't Cameron's promise to hold an EU in or out referendum during the next parliament's term amount to a giant move toward the very essence of what UKIP wants?  This being the case, does it make sense for UKIP to be running candidates in tory marginal seats where the main effect of its candidates might be to allow the victory of an anti-referendum labour candidate. UKIP could still run candidates everywhere else, and against every prominent pro-European Union MP, but stand aside in all marginal tory seats where there is a likely tory pro-referendum sitting MP or MP candidate.

This might work, yes. The crucial problem is that UKIP is not clever enough to pull off such a thing.

I beg to differ. I believe that the influence of a UKIP candidate caused the following seats to change hands (when they would not have done if UKIP did not field a candidate)

2001: Cheadle, Guildford, Taunton
2005: Devon West and Torridge, Taunton, Weston Super Mare
2010: Thurrock
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 19, 2015, 12:10:13 pm
Another UKIP question.  Doesn't Cameron's promise to hold an EU in or out referendum during the next parliament's term amount to a giant move toward the very essence of what UKIP wants?  This being the case, does it make sense for UKIP to be running candidates in tory marginal seats where the main effect of its candidates might be to allow the victory of an anti-referendum labour candidate. UKIP could still run candidates everywhere else, and against every prominent pro-European Union MP, but stand aside in all marginal tory seats where there is a likely tory pro-referendum sitting MP or MP candidate.

The following are all references to the word "referendum" in the Conservative manifesto:

Quote
We will negotiate new rules with the EU, so that people will have to be earning here for a number of years before they can claim benefits, including the tax credits that top up low wages. Instead of something-for nothing, we will build a system based on the principle of something-for-something. We will then put these changes to the British people in a straight in-out referendum on our membership of the European Union by the end of 2017.

Quote
The EU needs to change. And it is time for the British people – not politicians – to have their say. Only the Conservative Party will deliver real change and real choice on Europe, with an in-out referendum by the end of 2017.

Quote
It will be a fundamental principle of a future Conservative Government that membership of the European Union depends on the consent of the British people – and in recent years that consent has worn wafer-thin. That’s why, after the election, we will negotiate a new settlement for Britain in Europe, and then ask the British people whether they want to stay in the EU on this reformed basis or leave. David Cameron has committed that he will only lead a government that offers an in-out referendum. We will hold that in-out referendum before the end of 2017 and respect the outcome

Quote
We will legislate in the first session of the next Parliament for an in-out referendum to be held on Britain’s membership of the EU before the end of 2017. We will negotiate a new settlement for Britain in the EU. And then we will ask the British people whether they want to stay in on this basis, or leave. We will honour the result of the referendum, whatever the outcome
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