Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 01, 2015, 04:46:15 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 75
1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK local by-elections 2015 on: June 12, 2015, 04:13:36 am
Wyre Forest, Areley Kings and Riverside

Lab 32.2 (633, 561, 532)
Con 32.0 (662, 564, 492)
ICHC 20.6 (404, 378, 326)
UKIP 11.5 (213, 209, 196)
Green 3.7 (66)

Sutton, Wallington South

Lib Dem 44.1 (+7.2)
Con 33.0 (+15.7)
Ind 6.4
Lab 6.4 (-2.2)
UKIP 5.8 (-11.Cool
Green 4.3 (-3.0)

Tower Hamlets, Stepney Green

Lab 42.1 (+14.1)
Not TH First 37.7 (-6.7)
Green 7.0 (-2.1)
UKIP 5.2 (-3.4)
Con 4.0 (-2.5)
Lib Dem 2.9 (-0.5)
Ind 1.0

Lab gain Stepney Green from TH First

and Labour GAIN Tower Hamlets from NOC to boot!
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Trinidad and Tobago : FIFA's hand? on: June 04, 2015, 02:38:21 am
Jack Warner (as part of the investigation into FIFA) has claimed this morning that FIFA had a direct hand in the elections held in Trinidad and Tobago in 2010. According to Wikipedia the results of that election were as follows:

People's Partnership Coalition 432,026 votes (60%) winning 29 seats
People's National Movement 285,354 votes (40% -6% on 2007) winning 12 seats (-14 seats)
Independents and Others 2,347 votes (0%) winning 0 seats

Wikipedia states that "The People's Partnership is a political coalition in Trinidad and Tobago among four political parties: the United National Congress, the Congress of the People, the Tobago Organization of the People, the National Joint Action Committee", In 2007, the UNC and Congress polled a total of 53%
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: England local elections, May 2015 on: May 31, 2015, 07:07:06 am
I have just finished tallying the results from the local elections (no thanks to the mass media who seemed to ignore it for some reason) and here are the final results

Conservatives 6,729 councillors (+417) winning 164 councils (+10)
Labour 4,225 councillors (-251) winning 72 councils (-56)
Liberal Democrats 1,153 councillors (-439) winning 4 councils (-4)
Independents 641 councillors (-143) winning 0 councils (unchanged)
United Kingdom Independence Party 336 councillors (+168) winning 1 council (+1)
Green Party 133 councillors (+7) winning 0 councils (unchanged)
Ratepayers 93 councillors (+1) winning 1 council (unchanged)
Other Parties 13 councillors (-13) winning 0 councils (unchanged)
4  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: First Annual World Series of Electoral Knowledge on: May 30, 2015, 04:44:10 am
Round One of the FIRST ANNUAL WORLD SERIES OF ELECTORAL KNOWLEDGETM starts Thurdsay, May 28 at 12:00AM EDT, and ends on Wednesday, June 3 at 11:59PM EDT.

The category for Round One is.........."One and Out.."  Point values are 100, 200, 300, 400, and 500.  Each contestant will attempt three of these five questions.

With applicable bonuses, the (theoretical) maximum point value of this round is 2,400.

To participate, please contact me via PM to set up a time on my irc server or other messaging software.

Ah, so that's where I went wrong. My apologies, I have had to change my YAHOO Messenger name thanks to YAHOO playing silly devils. In that case, would it be possible to have a natter on Sunday May 31st at 1700 EDT using the ID "WelshLiberal"?
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greater London Assembly and Mayor elections - 5 May 2016 on: May 28, 2015, 05:00:29 pm
Hang on Harry, the kippers didn't get any seats last round, due to the unfortunate blunder of forgetting their own name (lmao). Where are you getting that info?

As always the Mayoral elections will be done via the hilariously awful 'supplementary vote', which is like an attempt to do a Two round system without the expense of run-offs / do IRV while not trusting the public to count higher than '2'.

Simply by adding UKIP / Fresh Choice and UKIP on the regional list (after all they were votes cast for UKIP)
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greater London Assembly and Mayor elections - 5 May 2016 on: May 28, 2015, 04:25:14 pm
Constituency Votes
Labour 933,398 (42%) winning 8 seats
Conservatives 722,280 (33%) winning 6 seats
Liberal Democrats 193,842 (9%) winning 0 seats
Green Party 188,623 (9%) winning 0 seats
United Kingdom Independence Party 95,849 (4%) winning 0 seats
British National Party 30,744 (1%) winning 0 seats
Other Parties 42,901 (2%) winning 0 seats

Regional List Vote (notionals)
Due to a mess up in the UKIP camp, several UKIP regional list and constituency candidates were nominated as "A Fresh Choice for London: UKIP". To ensure that changes are accurate all Fresh Choice / UKIP candidates have been counted as UKIP

Labour 3 regional list AM's
Conservatives 3 regional list AM's
Liberal Democrats 2 regional list AM's
Green Party 1 regional list AM
United Kingdom Independence Party 1 regional list AM

Totals: Labour 11, Conservatives 9, Green Party 2, Liberal Democrats 2, UKIP 1
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK Liberal Democrat leadership election, 2015 on: May 28, 2015, 10:00:47 am
As one of the people who will be able to vote in this election, my main concern is more grassroots:

Quote
1)   I live in a village between the two main towns in this constituency and as far as I can tell I am the only Liberal Democrat member / campaigner in this village. In the last two days of the campaign I was asked to deliver to the entire village (a task that was made impossible not only by sheer distance involved, but also the deliveries were not in the correct order). Do you believe that where there are limited campaigners in a community, as many members of the constituency who live near to areas with limited campaigners should be asked to help out (even if it means that towns are left undelivered?)

But so far, neither candidate has answered that question.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: May 28, 2015, 02:45:26 am
The question is: “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?”

According to Mike Smithson of Political Betting.com, the onus is on the NO camp to get people to vote against a statement (but he points out that NO won the AV referendum and the Independence referendum)
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: England local elections, May 2015 on: May 27, 2015, 04:20:13 am
Kent:



Usual comments apply, though there were a lot of split wards here and some very odd nomination strategies by some parties in places. So be careful.

Indeed, but what puzzles me is that great big Independent ward in Thanet. I'd love to see the result of that one!
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: May 27, 2015, 04:16:25 am
In today's Queen Speech, there will be an announcement confirming the bill that will start the referendum process and it is expected that by this evening the formal question will be published. As for myself, I will be voting whatever answer keeps us in the European Union and am waiting to find out who the lead campaign group will be for that opinion so that I can join them and campaign for that same vote.
11  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: First Annual World Series of Electoral Knowledge on: May 23, 2015, 10:14:32 am
Not entirely sure what this relates to but why not?
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK Post-Election Analysis on: May 18, 2015, 04:01:00 am
This was my final forecast map


and here is what actually happened
13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: And it's back again (Shrinking the House : Take Two) on: May 16, 2015, 03:56:23 am
I have managed to complete the calculations (based on the estimates that Electoral Calculus did) of the proposed 600 seat house and this is how that election would have turned out:

Conservatives 317 seats (+21 seats)
Labour 209 seats (-25 seats)
Scottish National Party 51 seats (+45 seats)
Democratic Unionist Party 8 seats (unchanged)
Sinn Fein 5 seats (unchanged)
Liberal Democrats 3 seats (-44 seats)
Plaid Cymru 3 seats (+2 seats)
SDLP 2 seats (unchanged)
Green Party 1 seat (+1 seat)
Independent 1 seat (unchanged)
Conservative majority of 34

The gains from the notional election of 2010 and 2015 are (excluding Scotland which saw the SNP win every single seat bar Orkney and Shetland)

Con GAINS: Balham and Tooting (Lab), Bath (Lib Dem), Battersea and Vauxhall (Lab), Berwick, Alnwick and Morpeth (Lib Dem), Bodmin and St. Austell (Lib Dem), Bolton West (Lab), Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery (Lib Dem), Carshalton and Couldson (Lib Dem), Cheadle (Lib Dem), Cheltenham (Lib Dem), Colchester (Lib Dem), Devon North (Lib Dem), Eastbourne (Lib Dem), Eastleigh (Lib Dem), Gloucestershire South East (Lib Dem), Hampton (Lib Dem), Hazel Grove and Poyton (Lib Dem), Kingston and Surbiton (Lib Dem), Norfolk North (Lib Dem), Plymouth Devonport (Lab), Richmond and Twickenham (Lib Dem), Solihull (Lib Dem), Somerton and Frome (Lib Dem), Southampton Itchen (Lab), Southport (Lib Dem), St. Ives (Lib Dem), Stockton South (Lab), Sutton and Cheam (Lib Dem), Taunton (Lib Dem), Torbay (Lib Dem), Truro and Newquay (Lib Dem), Yeovil (Lib Dem)
Lab GAINS: Bermondsey and South Bank (Lib Dem), Bristol West (Lib Dem), Cambridge (Lib Dem), Cardiff Central (Lib Dem), Chester (Con), Croydon East (Con), Dewsbury (Con), Enfield North (Con), Hornsey and Wood Green (Lib Dem), Hove (Con), Luton North and Dunstable (Con), Manchester Withington (Lib Dem), Norwich South (Lib Dem), Otley (Con), Redcar (Lib Dem), Sheffield Hallam and Penistone (Lib Dem), Shipley (Con), Southampton Test (Con), Willesden (Lib Dem), Wirral Deeside (Con),
Green GAINS: Brighton, Pavillion (Lab)
Plaid GAINS: Carmarthen (Lab), Ynys Môn ac Bangor (Lab),
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: National Assembly of Wales Elections 2016 on: May 13, 2015, 02:23:45 pm
It just so happens I have done a calculation of the Assembly (on the proviso of a 100% transfer from constituency to regional list, which has never happened):

Wales North Constituencies: Labour 5, Conservatives 3, Plaid Cymru 1
Wales North Regional List Votes: Labour 107,722, Conservatives 100,103, UKIP 44,392, Plaid 42,637 (No other parties qualify)
Wales North Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Con win the second seat, UKIP win the third seat, Plaid win the fourth seat (UKIP 2, Con 1, Plaid 1)

Mid and West Wales Constituencies: Conservatives 4, Plaid Cymru 2, Labour 1, Liberal Democrats 1
Mid and West Wales Regional List Votes: Conservatives 90,209, Labour 63,798, Plaid 56,382, Liberal Democrats 39,219, UKIP 33,649 (No other parties qualify)
Mid and West Wales Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Lab win the second seat, Lib Dem win the third seat, Plaid win the fourth seat (UKIP 1, Lab 1, Lib Dem 1, Plaid 1)

Wales South West Constituencies: Labour 6, Conservatives 1
Wales South West Regional List Votes: Labour 113,582, Conservatives 56,685, UKIP 37,692, Plaid 25,540 (No other parties qualify)
Wales South West Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Con win the second seat, Plaid win the third seat, UKIP win the fourth seat (UKIP 2, Con 1, Plaid 1)

Wales South Central Constituencies: Labour 6, Conservatives 2
Wales South Central Regional List Votes: Labour 135,592, Conservatives 86,878, UKIP 37,346, Plaid 34,629, Lib Dem 24,338 (No other parties qualify)
Wales South Central Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Plaid win the second seat, Con win the third seat, Lib Dem win the fourth seat (UKIP 1, Plaid 1, Con 1, Lib Dem 1)

Wales South East Constituencies: Labour 7, Conservatives 1
Wales South East Regional List Votes: Labour 131,779, Conservatives 73,938, UKIP 51,251, Plaid 22,516 (No other parties qualify)
Wales South East Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Con win the second seat, UKIP win the third seat, Plaid win the fourth seat (UKIP 2, Con 1, Plaid 1)

Constituencies Won: Labour 25, Conservatives 11, Plaid Cymru 3, Liberal Democrats 1
Regional List Members Elected: Labour 1, Conservatives 4, Plaid Cymru 5, Liberal Democrats 2, UKIP 8
Total Assembly Members: Labour 26, Conservatives 15, Plaid Cymru 8, UKIP 8, Liberal Democrats 3 (Labour short of a majority by 5)
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / National Assembly of Wales Elections 2016 on: May 12, 2015, 11:26:03 am
Seeing as Scotland already has a thread let's not forget Wales.

Result of Assembly Elections 2011
Labour 42% constituencies, 37% regional list winning 28 constituencies and 2 regionals
Conservatives 25% constituencies, 23% regional list winning 6 constituencies and 8 regionals
Plaid Cymru 19% constituencies, 18% regional list winning 5 constituencies and 6 regionals
Liberal Democrats 11% constituencies, 8% regional list winning 1 constituency and 4 regionals
No other party won AM's
United Kingdom Independence Party 5% regional list
Green Party 3% regional list
Socialist Labour 2% regional list
British National Party 2% regional list
Other Parties 3% constituencies, 2% regional list

There has been polling conducted by ITV by YouGov, however it is nothing like as regular as that in Scotland. The last poll was published on March 9th and suggested:

Constituency Vote: Labour 37% (-5%) Conservatives 22% (-3%) Plaid Cymru 20% (+1%) United Kingdom Independence Party 11% (no constituency candidates in 2011) Liberal Democrats 6% (-5%) Other Parties 5% (+3%)

Regional List Vote: Labour 33% (-4%) Conservatives 22% (-1%) Plaid Cymru 21% (+3%) United Kingdom Independence Party 12% (+7%) Green Party 5% (-1%)Liberal Democrats 5% (-3%) Other Parties 2% (-5%)

A forecast produced by Prof. Roger Scully of Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre suggests that Labour would win 28 seats (26 and 2), Conservatives 14 (6 and Cool, Plaid Cymru 11 (6 and 5), UKIP 5 (all regional list) and the Lib Dems 2 (2 and 0) which would mean that Labour would be three short of a majority and that either a Lab led coalition, rainbow coalition or Lab minority administration would the result.
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: And it's back again (Shrinking the House : Take Two) on: May 11, 2015, 09:41:57 am
These are the electorates (and averages) for Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales

Northern Ireland: 1,236,687 = 18 seats = 68,705 electors per seat
Scotland: 4,099,926 = 59 seats = 69,490 electors per seat
Wales: 2,282,297 = 40 seats = 57,057 electors per seat
Average so far: 7,618,910 = 117 seats = 65,118 electors per seat

England (by it's sheer size) will take a lot longer to tally but when I have done, I shall post the regional tallies
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Parliament election - 2016 on: May 10, 2015, 01:29:39 pm
UK-Elect's forecast gives: SNP 65, Lab 32, Con 16, Green 8, Lib Dem 6, Ind 2 (SNP short by 4)

And no, you are not too early in the slightest.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: England local elections, May 2015 on: May 10, 2015, 06:31:24 am
North Warwickshire: Con 22, Lab 13 (Con GAIN from Lab)
Sedgemoor: Con 35, Lab 10, UKIP 2, Lib Dem 1 (Con HOLD)
St. Edmundsbury: Con 36, UKIP 4, Lab 2, Ind 2, Green 1 (Con HOLD)
Stratford upon Avon: Con 31, Lib Dem 3, Lab 1, Ind 1 (Con win on new boundaries)
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Aberdeenshire West by-election pending? on: May 10, 2015, 06:27:48 am
Would I be correct in assuming that because the SNP have banned "double jobbing", we now have a by-election in Aberdeenshire West pending?
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: How would you reform and redraw UK local government? on: May 09, 2015, 05:02:36 pm
And Wales?
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: The UK General Election Prediction Thread on: May 09, 2015, 06:23:29 am
Quote
Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP, Glasgow North- SNP, Stirling- SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed- Con, Stockton South - Lab, Redcar- Lab

Bury North- Lab, Southport- Lib Dem, Heywood and Middleton- Lab

Rotherham- Lab, Colne Valley- Con, Bradford West- Lab,  Sheffield Hallam- Lib Dem

Boston and Skegness- Con, Broxtowe- Lab, Loughborough- Con

Worcester- Con, Dudley South - Con, Warwickshire North- Lab

Ynys Mon- Lab, Ceredigion- Lib Dem, Vale of Glamorgan- Con

Camborne and Redruth- Con, Bristol West- Lib Dem, Wells- Con

Brighton Pavillion- Green, Thanet South- Con, Rochester and Strood- Con

Kingston and Surbiton - Lib Dem, Battersea- Con, Enfield North- Lab

Norwich South- Lab, Clacton- Con, Thurrock- Lab

Emboldened equals correct
22  General Politics / International General Discussion / And it's back again (Shrinking the House : Take Two) on: May 08, 2015, 04:33:32 pm
(Source: 2015 Conservative Manifesto)

Quote
In the next Parliament, we will address the unfairness of the current Parliamentary boundaries, reduce the number of MPs to 600 to cut the cost of politics and make votes of more equal value. We will implement the boundary reforms that Parliament has already approved and make them apply automatically once the Boundary Commission reports in 2018

I will be buying a copy of the newspapers tomorrow and tallying up the election (both on the 2015 boundaries and the aborted 2013 boundaries) but there is nothing to stop the experts here (who I know had a wonderful time last time) creating their dream 600 seat Parliament.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Where Can I Watch Election Results on: May 05, 2015, 04:25:50 pm
Keep in mind that unlike practically everywhere else, unless they've changed it, the U.K does not release partial election results, but only announces the result when all the polls have have been counted. All the candidates appear on a stage together when the results are announced.  This has made for some amusing television seeing some of the candidates of the Monster Raving Loony Party on the stage.

Nope, it's still the same. A result is "declared" when all the votes cast have been verified, counted and recounted (if need be)
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Where Can I Watch Election Results on: May 05, 2015, 07:13:52 am
Does Channel 4 stream their coverage online? I want to watch David Mitchell. As long as they are streaming, it should be possible to watch with the Hola app.

Not sure, Channel 4 does have a on demand service called All 4 so I would suggest that is the first place that you visit.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Where Can I Watch Election Results on: May 05, 2015, 02:27:43 am
The C-Span website has an archive and looking at it for past elections, it will either be simulcast LIVE or on a delay

Election 1987
http://www.c-span.org/video/?172356-1/bbc-election-coverage

Election 1992
http://www.c-span.org/video/?25480-1/british-elections (Kinnock wins in rehearsals)
http://www.c-span.org/video/?25485-1/bbc-british-election-coverage (Actual Results)

Election 1997
http://www.c-span.org/video/?80761-1/british-election-results (Overnight Results)
http://www.c-span.org/video/?80915-1/british-election-results (Change of Government)

Election 2001
http://www.c-span.org/video/?164629-1/british-election-results

Election 2005
http://www.c-span.org/video/?186553-4/2005-british-election (David Dimbleby interviewed during rehearsals)
http://www.c-span.org/video/?186422-1/bbc-election-night-coverage (Overnight coverage, simulcast on C-Span 2)

Election 2010
http://www.c-span.org/video/?293363-1/british-election-results-early-returns (Exit Poll - 0100 BST)
http://www.c-span.org/video/?293363-101/british-election-results-continued-returns (0100 BST - 0600 BST)
http://www.c-span.org/video/?293387-1/british-election-results-late-returns (0600 BST - 0900 BST)
http://www.c-span.org/video/?293387-1/british-election-results-late-returns (Washington's take on Election 2010)
http://www.c-span.org/video/?293387-101/british-election-results-continued-late-returns (Cameron's and Brown's statements)
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 75


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines