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December 11, 2016, 02:56:29 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK Popular Vote on: November 16, 2016, 08:15:37 am
When voting for president in the United States the media is often fixated with the popular vote  despite this having no direct bearing on the election outcome.  I know that in the UK the prime minister is selected  by the party with the most members in the House of Commons.  In many ways this is analogous to the US electoral college system, though without the winner-take-all aspect for blocks of votes.  But still, it is mathematically possible for the prime minister to be elected without his party having obtained a plurality of the popular vote.  Does anyone know if this has happened?

Yes, it happens all the time. The closest that a party got to 50% +1 popular vote and a majority was the Conservatives in 1955 when they polled 49.7% of the popular vote and got a majority of 60
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 British Columbia election on: November 16, 2016, 08:12:34 am
Have there been any calculations produced of the 2013 election on the new boundaries?
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK parliamentary boundary review 2016-2018 on: September 14, 2016, 04:22:45 pm
Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report has come up with the following estimates

Conservatives 320 seats (including the Speaker) -27 proportionally
Labour 203 seats -22 proportionally
Liberal Democrats 3 seats -4 proportionally
United Kingdom Independence Party 1 unchanged
Plaid Cymru 3 seats unchanged

The suggestion is that Caroline Lucas would not win Brighton North (Con 32%, Lab 31%, Green 27%)
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK parliamentary boundary review 2016-2018 on: September 06, 2016, 08:36:34 am
The Provisional Recommendations for Northern Ireland are in, and they're... different.  You can access the report, an interactive map, etc. here.

I have Sinn Fein winning seven seats (although four could be won by Unionists if there were a single candidate), the DUP win seven, the SDLP two and Lady Hermon holds North Down.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK parliamentary boundary review 2016-2018 on: September 04, 2016, 08:52:33 am
Updated schedule for release of initial recommendations:
Northern Ireland: September 6th (specifically 0000 BST on the Northern Ireland Boundary Commission website)
England and Wales: September 13th
Scotland: October 8th

After each release there will be a six month consultation period during which public inquiries will be held along with written and online submissions. I will certainly try and attend the public inquiry held in Swansea which will look in detail at the proposals for Powys and Dyfed and either congratulate the Commission or make some alternative suggestions to them
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017 on: September 04, 2016, 05:33:51 am
In an interview today with Andrew Marr on his Sunday show, Theresa May announced the date of the next general election, May 7th 2020, by stating that she would not call a general election in the wake of her election as Conservative Party leader.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK parliamentary boundary review 2016-2018 on: August 06, 2016, 05:01:39 am
The initial suggestions by the Boundary Commissions will be published in the week starting September 12th with England starting off (then Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) which will then start a six month response period. It is that period that members of the public can make submissions during (but not before)
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017 on: July 26, 2016, 06:19:46 am
ICM poll published today (July 26th)
Con 43%, Lab 27%, UKIP 13%, Lib Dem 8%, SNP 4%, Green 4%, Others 1%

Forecast House of Commons: Con 375, Lab 194, SNP 45, NI Seats 18, Lib Dem 12, Plaid 4, Green 1, UKIP 1 (Con maj of 100)
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017 on: July 15, 2016, 12:47:05 pm
Yvette Cooper MP (Lab, Normanton) has suggested on Twitter that there will be an early election that will either be called on September 21st for October 20th as part of a dastardly scheme by the Conservatives to ruin their big day of announcing the winner of the Labour leadership election.
Exactly how does the government get around the Fixed-term Parliaments Act in just over 2 months, with Parliament in recess for most of it?

The simple rule of thumb is 429 MP's have to vote for an early election, or there is a vote of no confidence in the existing government and a vote of no confidence in the next government. The first is impossible (as it means Labour voting for an early election) the second is more than possible. May triggers a no confidence motion and whips her MP's to abstain, stating that she wishes to have a mandate (similar to Schroder and Merkel a few years back) and so the motion is carried and the government resigns, Corbyn is then asked to form a government and 14 days later presents it to the House, the Conservatives (who have the majority) vote against it and we have a general election.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017 on: July 15, 2016, 07:54:56 am
Yvette Cooper MP (Lab, Normanton) has suggested on Twitter that there will be an early election that will either be called on September 21st for October 20th as part of a dastardly scheme by the Conservatives to ruin their big day of announcing the winner of the Labour leadership election.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017 on: July 12, 2016, 12:14:58 pm
May gives a statement on an early election

Quote
May said the Tory party needs to "build the support we need to go to the country in four years time, and not just win, but win big

In other words, NO snap election
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017 on: July 12, 2016, 04:50:52 am
Although there is no requirement for the new Prime Minister to hold a general election, given how the Conservatives badgered Gordon Brown to hold an election (and then he bottled it at the last minute) I would be very surprised if the new Prime Minister did not call a general election shortly after his election in October. However, of course, that would mean having to square the circle of the Fixed Term Parliament Act (which requires 426 MP's to vote for an election). I suppose one possible option would to be offer the government's resignation and then challenge Labour and the SNP to form a majority (which is impossible) and then hold an election.

When I first started note I said HIS election. Therefore does the fact that it's a lady mean that only ladies will be able to comment on the likelihood of a new election?
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017 on: July 11, 2016, 04:58:24 pm
Crossposted from Scruffy Atlas:

So let's say that May goes back on her word and wants an early election asap. Two dates to note: she kisses hands on the 13th and Parliament breaks up for the Summer on the 21st. Given the stupid FTPA (see provisions here) we can therefore presumably rule out any prospect of an election being called before the Summer Recess, although 2016 is 2016. Parliament then returns briefly in September (5th) before buggering off again for Conference season (15th September to 10th October).

Anyway May is a lot of things but she's not a fool and won't want to piss away what she's strived so openly for for so long. The GB figures for the 2015 GE were Con 38, Labour 31, UKIP 13, LDem 8%, SNP 5%, Greens 4%. She would want, I would guess, a substantially larger poll lead than that (because otherwise you'd be as much at risk of losing the majority as increasing it) and for it to seem stable for there to be any chance of her going for it at all. I could be reading her wrong of course.

Based on the average swing to the government when Brown replaced Blair and Major replaced Thatcher, there could be a 20% Con lead by the start of September (that could produce a Con majority of well over 125)
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Japan 2016 - July 10 on: July 10, 2016, 08:24:37 am
NHK calls 福島(Fukushima)  for DP.  LDP is ahead 49.4% to 48.4% but NHK must know what it is doing. This is a reversal of NHK exit poll.

As the last election was in 2010 (before the tsunami) could that have a bearing on this result?
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Japan 2016 - July 10 on: July 10, 2016, 06:03:04 am
NHK Exit Poll (published at 8.00pm Japan time)
Coalition 67 - 76 seats
Coalition in favour of constitutional amendment 75 - 85 seats

Liberal Democrats 54 - 61 seats
Democratic Party 26 - 32 seats
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Japan 2016 - July 10 on: July 10, 2016, 05:49:42 am
(Source: Wikipedia)

Results of last election (2013)
Liberal Democrats 43% constituency vote / 35% PR vote = 115 seats (+31 on 2010)
New Komeito Party 5% constituency vote / 14% PR vote = 20 seats (+1 on 2010)
Coalition Totals: 48% constituency vote / 49% PR vote = 135 seats (+32 on 2010)

Democratic Party 16% constituency vote / 13% PR vote = 59 seats (-27 on 2010)
Restoration Party 7% constituency vote / 12% PR vote = 9 seats (+6 on 2010)
Communists 11% constituency vote / 10% PR vote = 11 seats (+5 on 2010)
Your Party 8% constituency vote / 9% PR vote = 18 seats (+5 on 2010)
Social Democrats 1% constituency vote / 2% PR vote = 3 seats (-1 on 2010)
Others and Independents 10% constituency vote / 5% PR vote = 4 (-12 on 2010)
Opposition Totals: 52% constituency vote / 51% PR vote = 107 seats (-27 on 2010)
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017 on: July 10, 2016, 04:04:14 am
In a discussion on Twitter last night, several people who follow the polls suggested that a Conservative majority of 100 was easily on the cards (increasing to at least 150 if Labour split) which thanks to the proposed boundary changes that are seen as being very friendly to the Conservatives the prospect for a 2021 general election being a starting point of a Conservative majority of between 125 and 150
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 10, 2016, 04:01:53 am
Labour concede http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-36757307
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017 on: July 10, 2016, 01:50:27 am
As stated earlier neither May nor Leadsome have said that there will be a general election before May 2020 if they are elected, but a large number of voices (outside the usual circles) are calling for one including the London School of Economics http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/07/07/general-election-article-50/
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Japan 2016 - July 10 on: July 10, 2016, 01:47:18 am
NHK World (which is broadcast in the UK on the SKY HD platform) will be broadcasting results from 11.40am BST at regular intervals. The schedule I have says 11.40am - 12.30pm, 1.00pm - 1.15pm, 2.00pm - 2.40pm, 3.00pm - 3.15pm, 4.00pm - 4.15pm, 5.00pm - 5.15pm and then news bulletins (fifteen minutes long) every hour until midnight when the usual half hour broadcast resumes. Therefore I shall be posting the numbers that they produce on a fairly regular basis
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 02, 2016, 04:55:33 am
Barker in South Australia currently has Xenophon in second place. If it stays that way transfers will be very interesting to watch
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017 on: July 01, 2016, 10:20:25 am
A poll that came out today suggested that 52% of the population would like to see an immediate general election, which according to 68% would "help clear the air". However, none of the Conservatives standing for the leadership are either in favour of the idea or have not commented on it.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Could the 3rd parties find success in the 2016 UK election? on: June 30, 2016, 01:54:46 pm
The 2 post Brexit poll have an average of (change since 2015 result)

Conservative 34 (-3.Cool, Labour 32 (+0.Cool, UKIP 15.5 (+2.6), Lib Dem 8 (-0.1), SNP 4.5 (-0.4)
Green 5 (+1.2)

Mostly just UKIP gaining at Conservative's expense there. Of course to hear the convention wisdom, you'd think Labour just crashed in the polls.

That would produce a House of Commons of: Conservatives 302, Labour 252, SNP 57, Lib Dem 12, UKIP 4, Plaid 3, Green 1, Speaker 1, NI Parties 18 (Hung Parliament, Con short by 24)
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016 on: June 29, 2016, 04:43:23 pm
I'm hearing now Owen Smith will run- 2010 intake, from the soft left. 1000% stronger than Eagle

A quick Wikipedia skim makes him look promising. Six years in Parliament isn't really enough for my liking, but it's longer than either Cameron or Miliband had before becoming leader, and four of those years have been on the frontbench. EDIT: And he worked in radio! Bonus.

David Trimble elected as UUP MP for Upper Bann 1990, became leader of the UUP 1995
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017 on: June 28, 2016, 03:48:01 am
Jeremy Hunt MP (Con, Surrey South West) has confirmed that he will be seeking nomination to enter the Conservative leadership election and has made a couple of interesting statements. Those statements include holding a second referendum and a general election.

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