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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: May 15, 2014, 01:40:17 pm
My personal feelings are:
Vote Share: Con 30%, Lab 30%, UKIP 20%, Lib Dem 10%, Others 10%
Seat Share: Con and Lab both around 300 with Lib Dems winning 0 - 5 seats making a coalition impossible. General Election held in November 2015 or Grand Coalition

300 seats each for the Conservative and Labour parties and up to 5 for us? Check your writings, Harry!

Running through UK-Elect: Lab 305, Con 303, SNP 9, UKIP 7, Plaid 4, Lib Dem 2, Green 1, National Health Action 1, Northern Ireland 18 (Hung Parliament)

Coalitions:
Conservatives + Unionists (DUP Cool = 311 (Not a workable coalition, short of 323)
Labour + SNP + Plaid + SDLP = 321 (Not a workable coalition, too many parties)
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: May 14, 2014, 01:25:07 pm
My personal feelings are:
Vote Share: Con 30%, Lab 30%, UKIP 20%, Lib Dem 10%, Others 10%
Seat Share: Con and Lab both around 300 with Lib Dems winning 0 - 5 seats making a coalition impossible. General Election held in November 2015 or Grand Coalition
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012 on: April 30, 2014, 01:31:53 pm
For those interested, I'm in the process of putting together a map based on the redistribution in the vein of my last one (with a few improvements). It's progressing, albeit slowly.

I have just found the data and have downloaded it with a new to creating a projector and battleground. If there is a chance of making your maps into KML files for Google Earth, could you send them to me?

Is this what you're looking for?

http://www.geobase.ca/geobase/en/search.do;jsessionid=A63CA10B7B4D98F6157B5DA914A593E1.geobase1?produit=fed&language=en

That is brilliant, thank you very much indeed
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012 on: April 30, 2014, 11:40:54 am
For those interested, I'm in the process of putting together a map based on the redistribution in the vein of my last one (with a few improvements). It's progressing, albeit slowly.

I have just found the data and have downloaded it with a new to creating a projector and battleground. If there is a chance of making your maps into KML files for Google Earth, could you send them to me?
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: South Africa 2014 on: April 30, 2014, 11:37:30 am
Polls open at 7.00am local time (6.00am BST / 1.00am EDT) and close at 9.00pm local time (8.00pm BST / 3.00pm EDT). I imagine that ARISE News, TVC News and eNCA Africa will all cover the results in varying degrees of detail.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / BBC Exclusive: Axelrod to assist Milliband in 2015 on: April 17, 2014, 04:40:51 pm
Barack Obama's most influential adviser during two presidential victories has been hired to advise Labour on its 2015 election campaign, ensuring that Ed Miliband will put inequality and the break between family finances and economic growth at the centre of his election campaign.

David Axelrod has been given the title of senior strategic adviser and the American told the Guardian that Labour's political and economic analysis was similar to the central themes deployed in Obama's successful re-election campaign.

The political guru said that he had signed up "because I have had some long conversations with Ed Miliband over the course of the past year and it was less about politics, and more about this issue of how in the 21st century you create healthy economies in which opportunity is broadly available, and people can stay ahead of the cost of living".

His arrival on the British scene will pit him against the Australian Lynton Crosby, the Conservative campaign consultant, who is one the toughest campaign operators. But he will not be as hands-on as his rival: he will first visit the UK in May, and Labour's overall campaign structure, the subject of recent leaks and rivalries, remains unchanged.

It also, more intriguingly, pits him against a former Obama colleague, Jim Messina, who has been hired by David Cameron. Axelrod was reluctant to discuss Messina, except to promise he had the capacity to surprise.

The deal was finalised last week by Douglas Alexander, the Labour election co-ordinator, and involved what is being described as a six-figure sum to pay for the services of Axelrod and the firm, AKPD, until the general election in May next year.

Axelrod was integral not just to Obama's two presidential victories in 2008 and 2012, but also to Obama's election as a senator in 2004. He has been described as a lobe of the Obama brain.

He comes at a time when Labour still holds a consistent poll lead, but there is an expectation that the lead will narrow as the economy improves and wages start to rise faster than prices, the point of crossover that the Conservatives will argue means the living standards crisis is over.

I would very much like to know what our American friends make of this
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Forum turnout poll: Will you/Would you vote in the EP elections next month ? on: April 15, 2014, 02:23:58 pm
Yes, for Alec Dauncey in the Welsh electoral region
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK local by-elections 2014 on: April 12, 2014, 01:16:44 pm
Am I correct in assuming no Maundy Thursday by-elections then?
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread on: April 05, 2014, 04:00:07 pm
Using the data from the 2012 elections, I've made this map of the Mid Western states

and have highlighted those with a lead of less than 2.5%. Can these be called "battlegrounds" or is there more to it than that?
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Municipal Elections 2014: Hashemite's Guide and Official Thread on: March 31, 2014, 08:25:09 am
There was indeed a national projected vote share published (which came as a surprise). The tally was Right 46%, Left 41%, Far Right 7%, Others 7%.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Municipal Elections 2014: Hashemite's Guide and Official Thread on: March 30, 2014, 01:20:48 pm
In the UK after a local election, the BBC produce a national projected vote share. Does French television do the same?
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: English local elections, May 2014 on: March 28, 2014, 05:46:28 pm
I'd be very interested in your thoughts on Nuneaton and Bedworth
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK parliamentary by-elections 2014 on: January 25, 2014, 05:51:52 pm
Has a date been set for the by-election? As a precaution I shall be watching BBC North West Tonight from Monday onwards.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK - 1970 vs 1974 Boundaries on: January 15, 2014, 08:28:44 am
Was a proper study of the effects of 1971 boundary changes (relative to the 1970 election) ever done? David Boothroyd's site lists how the changes affected numbers of seats (from 330-288 to 342-281) as well as seats that changed hands based on the new boundaries, which suggests that exact figures similar to those available for 1983 & 1997 were calculated, but I've not seen such figures anywhere.

At the start of the February 1974 BBC election results programme they produce two things of note. One is a published calculation of how the boundary changes affected the various parties (Con 338, Lab 284, Lib 6, Others 7) and they say that the BBC produced a complete calculation published by the BBC's Political Unit. Despite several phone calls to the BBC Archives department that book seems to have disappeared from the annals of history
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Homely's UK Maps Thread on: January 12, 2014, 07:47:59 am
These are the 15 English wards with the highest Muslim population:

Rank% MuslimWardCity
185.3%BASTWELLBlackburn
277.7%SHEAR BROWBlackburn
377.3%WASHWOOD HEATHBirmingham
476.3%DANESHOUSE WITH STONEYHULMEBurnley
576.1%TOLLERBradford
675.0%MANNINGHAMBradford
773.9%BORDESLEY GREENBirmingham
872.8%BRADFORD MOORBradford
970.2%SPARKBROOKBirmingham
1069.8%WHITEFIELDPendle
1169.6%SPINNEY HILLSLeicester
1268.9%AUDLEYBlackburn
1368.2%WERNETHOldham
1467.1%MILKSTONE AND DEEPLISHRochdale
1564.7%PARKHalifax

The highest Muslim population in a Greater London ward is 50.4% - Green Street West in Newham - and comes in at no. 36 on the list for the whole of England.



And as of the last set of elections in 2012, how many of them have a Respect councillor and how many of them in 2012 were Labour GAIN from Respect?
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK North - South Divide on: November 08, 2013, 09:52:45 am
Notional Election 1979
Northern England (North West, North East, Yorkshire)
Con 61, Lab 100, Lib 2
Southern England (East Anglia, London, South East, South West)
Con 159, Lab 15, Lib 3

Notional Election 1983
Northern England (North West, North East, Yorkshire)
Con 68, Lab 89, All 6
Southern England (East Anglia, South East, South West)
Con 169, Lab 3, All 5
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Anglesey (Ynys Mon) Assembly By-Election 2013 on: June 30, 2013, 04:54:59 pm
The Lib Dems have selected Steve Churchman as their candidate for the by-election.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Anglesey (Ynys Mon) Assembly By-Election 2013 on: June 23, 2013, 10:45:48 am
Martin Bell won Tatton in 1997, so why not? There is one other Plaid person seeking the nomination and that is Heledd Fychan who stood in Montgomeryshire at the general election and polled 8.28% (Plaid's highest level of support since 1992)
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Anglesey (Ynys Mon) Assembly By-Election 2013 on: June 23, 2013, 08:58:25 am
Rhun ap Iowerth (who has been in charge of BBC Wales's election maps since 2003) has announced that he has resigned from the BBC to contest the Plaid nomination for Ynys Mon



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-23021568
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Aberdeen Donside by-election (Holyrood) on: June 21, 2013, 04:37:02 pm
Here's the constituency forecast based on Aberdeen, Donside (Orkney and Shetland are both Lib Dem HOLDS)
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Aberdeen Donside by-election (Holyrood) on: June 21, 2013, 01:20:55 pm
Full Result
Mark McDonald, SNP     9814   41.97%
Willie Young, Lab     7789   33.31%
Christine Jardine, Lib Dem     1940    8.29%
Ross Thomson, Con     1791    7.66%
Otto Inglis, UKIP     1128    4.82%
Rhonda Reekie, Green      410    1.75%
Dave MacDonald, NF      249    1.06%
Tom Morrow, SCHP      222    0.94%
James Trolland, Ind       35    0.14%
SNP HOLD with a majority of 2,025 (8.66%) on a swing from SNP to Lab of 9.10%
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Anglesey (Ynys Mon) Assembly By-Election 2013 on: June 20, 2013, 01:03:40 pm
Ieuan Wyn Jones formally resigned today (in writing to the Presiding Officer) and the Plaid whip in the Assembly announced that polling will take place on August 1st. That says that Plaid are running scared of Labour on Anglesey.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Anglesey (Ynys Mon) Assembly By-Election 2013 on: June 18, 2013, 03:58:39 pm
Not very scientific, but here's the results for both Cardiff and Westminster recently



Very impressive, but just like Ceredigion I think it is safe to assume that it has different Westminster and Assembly voting patterns
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Anglesey (Ynys Mon) Assembly By-Election 2013 on: June 18, 2013, 01:13:40 am
Anglesey (Ynys Mon) 1999 - 2011
1999: Plaid 53% Lab 23% Con 19% Lib Dem 5%
2003: Plaid 37% Con 28% Lab 24% Lib Dem 8% UKIP 2%
2007: Plaid 40% Ind (former Con) 23% Lab 17% Con 13% Lib Dem 3% UKIP 3%
2011: Plaid 41% Con 29% Lab 26% Lib Dem 3%

Anglesey (Ynys Mon) Local Elections 2004 - 2013
2004: Ind 65% Plaid 22% Lab 6% Lib Dem 4% Con 3%
2008: Ind 55% Plaid 21% Lab 13% Con 5% Lib Dem 4% Rates 2% UKIP 0%
2013: Plaid 32% Ind 32% Lab 17% UKIP 7% Con 6% Lib Dem 5%
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Anglesey (Ynys Mon) Assembly By-Election 2013 on: June 17, 2013, 05:03:49 pm
It is being reported that Ieuan Wyn Jones AM (Plaid Cymru, Ynys Mon) is to announce his immediate retirement from Welsh politics and to stand down as the Assembly member. (Source: BBC News  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-229448360

In 2011, he had a majority of 12% over Con and 15% over Lab (and my immediate thoughts are General Election 2001 all over again)
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