Local Area Results Tallied: 145
Local Area Results with Electorates: 69
PCC Area Results Tallied: 15

Sussex results are reported by Local Authority (via the Brighton & Hove City Council website). Does anyone know of any others doing so? If so I can make a map..

I'm gathering that data as we speak (currently up to 84 out of 315). When I have all 315 I shall be more than happy to send it to you.

Thanks Harry yes please do - and I'll be more than happy to produce a map! I believe you have my email address from before but if not I'll PM it to you.

Currently up to 121 at the moment. I think I do, but have changed e-mail packages so a PM might be a good idea

As I mentioned earlier I am trying my best to tally the local area results but it is being hindered by a local of the PARO (police area returning officers) only publishing the area counts not the local area counts (and who has the time and effort to visit all 315 council websites to do it). I'm on about 120 local areas so far bu at this rate it's going to take as long as it will take the US states to certify their results.

Sussex results are reported by Local Authority (via the Brighton & Hove City Council website). Does anyone know of any others doing so? If so I can make a map..

I'm gathering that data as we speak (currently up to 84 out of 315). When I have all 315 I shall be more than happy to send it to you.

I was the 24th voter at around midday (which led me to project a 9% turnout at the end of the day). Our polling station is roughly average for Ceredigion (so it's not looking promising)

On Twitter this evening Vaughan Roderick (BBC Cymru Welsh politics expert) said that he expects somewhere in Wales to set a new low turnout record (currently at 9%). If one place were to break that then Ceredigion would be a prime candidate. In the local elections there were just 2,000 Con and Lab votes (out of an electorate of 64,000).

NHK World showed a poll that said DPJ 12%, LDP 25%, Another Party 45%. Has there ever been an election where "Another Party" has won the most seats?

These are just my personal views, but it would be interesting to see if they chime with members

1) The primary election process should be held within 48 hours of Iowa and New Hampshire (i.e Iowa holds it's primary on Day 1, New Hampshire on Day 2 and then the other nominating states on Day 3) and should be held in either April or May of an election year
2) The number of delegates selected for each of the candidates should be proportional to the support of that candidate in the state (so that if a candidate polls 25% of the vote in a state then 25% of the delegates are awarded to that candidate)
3) No delegate may change their vote until after the first roll call at the convention. After the roll call has happened, if no candidate has a majority, then a second roll call is held 24 hours later where states anounce how many delegates who supported one candidate has switched to another candidate

After 24 states tallied, we have a swing to the President in Mississippi:

Romney 55.51% (-0.67% on 2008)
Obama 43.55% (+0.55% on 2008)
Swing: 0.61% to Obama

I have so far tallied 23 states where there is a 100% precinct count and so far there has not been a single state where there has been a swing to the President. The smallest Romney swing was in Louisiana (Romney -0.03% vs Obama -0.11%, swing of 0.04% to Romney). The biggest swing so far is, perhaps not that suprising, Utah which recorded a staggering 9.83% swing (Romney +10.13% vs Obama -9.52%).

A conservative friend of mine in Yukon, Canada suggested that unless congressional terms were lengthened then the appeal for bipartisanship in the House would fall on deaf ears. The reasoning he gave was this:

Election Day: November Year 0
Start of campaign for next election: Six months later
Primary Election: Thirteen months - Seventeen months later
Election Day: November Year 2

He believes that congressional terms should be at least four years in length (with the possibility of Senate terms being extended to eight years) and that elections for both the House and the Senate should be held in the mid term of a President's term, so that the next elections in 2014 would elect a complete House that would not face election again until 2018 (allowing for proper bipartisan discussions on things like the fiscal cliff).

Dave's dominace in this field is being challenged by the Guardian newspaper in the United Kingdom. They have at http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2012/nov/07/us-2012-election-county-results-download#data a link to download a spreadsheet with county data for the election.

Slightly similar question, if there is a 269 - 269 tie after all the states have been projected, what would happen if an elector (trying to get his name up in lights) says "I was elected to vote for one candidate, but believe that the other candidate is better!". If he came from a state where this was not allowed (I can't remember right away which states don't allow electors to vote for whichever candidate they want to) would that elector be sacked and as a result that state be one elector short?

Statements of Persons Nominated emerged so far
Today was the deadline to submit nominations.
Statements of persons nominated published so far point towards the following picture:

Dyfed-Powys: Lab/Con
Kent: Ind/Ind/Con/EngDem/UKIP/Lab
West Mercia: Con/Ind/Lab
Warwickshire: Ind/Con/Lab
South Yorkshire: EngDem/UKIP/Con/LD/Lab
South Wales: Ind/Con/Lab/Ind
Leicestershire: Con/Ind/Lab
Whiltshire: LD/Con/Lab/UKIP/Ind/ind
Dorset: LD/Con/Lab/Ind
Gwent: Ind/Lab/Con/Ind
Thames Valley: Ind/UKIp/Ind/LD/Con/Lab
Surrey: Lab/Zero Tolerance Policing ex Chief/Con/LD/UKIP/Ind
Northamptonshire: Lab/UKIP/Ind/Con/LD
Cheshire: LD/UKIP/Con/Ind/Lab
Hampshire: LD/Ind/Justice and Anti-Corruption Party/Con/Lab/UKIP
Sussex: UKIP/Con/Ind/Lab/LD
West Midlands: Con/UKIP/Ind/Lab/LD/Ind/Ind
West Yorkshire: Lab/Con/Ind/LD
Cleveland: Ind/Lab/Con/Green
Cambridgeshire: Ind/Con/UKIP/EngDem/Ind/LD/Lab
Essex: Con/Ind/Lab/UKIP/Ind/EngDem
North Wales: Ind/Con/Lab/UKIP/Ind
Derbyshire: Lab/UKIP/Ind/Con/Ind
Nottinghamshire: Ind/Con/Ind/Lab
Bedfordshire: British Freedom Party/LD/Lab/Con/Ind
Lancashire: LD/Con/UKIP/Lab
Humberside: UKIP/LD/Ind/Ind/Con/Lab/Ind
Cumbria: LD/Lab/Con/Ind
Greater Manchester: LD/Lab/Ind/Con/UKIP
Northumbria: LD/Lab/UKIP/Con
Devon and Cornwall: LD/Ind/Ind/Con/Ind/Ind/Ind/Ind/UKIP/Lab
Merseyside: Con/UKIP/LD/Lab/Ind/EngDem

That's very helpful indeed thanks Andrea. That means we have candidates from Con, Lab, Lib Dem, Green, UKIP, English Democrats and a myriad of Independents. What we don't have is the SNP (for obvious reasons), the BNP (again for obvious reasons) but perhaps rather more mysterious is the absence of Plaid. Based on the Assembly elections, they would have had a very good chance in both North Wales and Dyfed Powys. Can anyone shed any light on that mystery?

Does anyone have any idea what the most detailed geographical breakdown we may be able to get of the results will be?

The Electoral Commission's website has a spreadsheet that shows all the verification and counting times and I get the impression the lowest level will be local authority (although that said for Birmingham it says that the verification will be held in "19 different venues across Birmingham") so whether Birmingham is doing it on constituency or not I cannot say.

Ruth Davidson MSP (Con, Glasgow) is currently giving a speech to the Conservative conference in Birmingham about how the Conservatives are at the forefront of the campaign to keep Scotland inside the United Kingdom, and in doing so has made an allusion to the Quebec referendum in 1995:

We know that during the referendum on seperation in Quebec, it mattered that the rest of Canada said "We want you to stay!"

I would like to know if this statement is correct, ideally by someone digging around the polling archives and finding a poll about the referendum conducted across the whole of Canada asking the question "Do you believe that Quebec should become independent?". If not, then at least a poll asking people's feelings about Canada's future direction if Quebec had voted for independence.

News from the Electoral Commission that might be of interest. The count will be a dual count (i.e like the European Elections) which each local authority announcing full first and second preference counts at their local count centres as well as the regional count centre. Here in Dyfed Powys, that means there will be counts held at Aberaeron (Ceredigion), Llanelli (Carmarthenshire) and Welshpool (Powys) with the head count being organised by Pembrokeshire (and so will be held at Haverfordwest). As the Lib Dems seem highly unlikely to field a candidate, I have filled in an oberserver application form in the hope of going along (if my sciatica has cleared up by then) and hopefully blogging / tweeting the results live

1) Take the RCP daily poll, apply a three day moving average, calculate the swing and apply it uniformly across the United States. If a state has a forecast majority of less than 3%, consult the RCP state poll averages over the last seven days and use that average as the final figure

2) Take all polls published each day and apply a three day moving average (as above) and use common sense for any state that could be considered a toss up

3) Look at all state polls only

4) Pot luck

As a tribute to Sir Alastair Burnet who died earlier in the year, BBC Parliament will be showing the February 1974 General Election from 0900 BST until 0030 BST on September 1st. As I already have the election on DVD (plus I shall be watching the Paralympics on Channel 4). I'll only dip in now and again, but thought that members might like to know in case they are a bit lost for things to do between the GOP and Dem conventions.

When the parties choose these convention venues and dates, I am wondering if they should consult the local weather forecasters first?

The way things are going in Dyfed Powys Nicholas Bourne (Con) Christine Gwyther (Lab) Helen Mary Jones (Plaid) James Adams (Ind) I am getting more and more tempted to cast the ultimate spolit ballot

First Preference: Adams 4 Bourne 4 Gwyther 4 Mary Jones 4
Second Preference: Adams 4 Bourne 4 Gwyther 4 Mary Jones 4

In other words, these elections should be scrapped the whole leglisation reviewed in Parliament as soon as possible

If there is a general election this year (2012), then does that mean that they will be using the same boundaries as at the last election?

Also you might like to know that NHK World (now in HD) broadcasts a type of election results programme so if any one would like me to record it, then please let me know and I will be able to estimate the cost of postage.

I would like to know if members believe I am on the right lines when I say:

It is best not to follow just one poll, but every poll published when calculating the true ratings of both presidential candidates and only to start tracking one week after the last convention ends using a seven day rolling average and ignore all polls that have an "Undecided" response

If I am correct in this assumption (and please comment on that first) which pollsters should I track and do they publish their polls at the same time (i.e do you have to have a paid subscription to get the poll at the same time that the press corps do?)

Cheers squire

I have written (but failed to keep a copy of) a response to the BCW about the Labour proposal for "Llandudno Beach and the Shropshire marshes" or whatever it is. Complete  bobbins of the highest order.

Just as I think it's easy to guess what the BCE will do in specific regions, it seems to me that the BCW will tinker with the north (maybe just name changes as there's not much call for ward switching or the like from what I've read) and wholesale changes in the Valleys (where everyone considers it necessary to rip up and start again).

There's a great submission from someone getting into a right huff about the proposed Caerfyrddin seat, because he thinks a) nobody will be able to pronounce it, and b) the name would give the impression of it "being a nationalist stronghold".

I'm not Welsh and I can pronounce it wonderfully. Cair Fumph Rin. And as for being a nationalist stronghold, the notional calculations produced by the Guardian say: Plaid 29% Con 27% Lab 27% Lib Dem 13% UKIP 3% Others 0%

[Welsh Local Election Results 2012]

Welsh Local Election Results 2012
(NB: One ward still to formally declare)

Labour   594355   41.61%    (577 Seats +233)
Plaid Cymru   203601   14.25%    (158 Seats -49)
Independent   201760   14.12%    (222 Seats -57)
Conservative   192415   13.47%    (104 Seats -69)
Liberal Democrat   120713    8.45%    (72 Seats -94)
Non Party Independent    47959    3.35%    (56 Seats +7)
Green    14494    1.01%
Ratepayers     9379    0.65%    (1 Seat -3)
Llais Gwynedd     7326    0.51%    (13 Seats +1)
Llanwit First Independents     6488    0.45%    (4 Seats +1)
Swansea Independents     4591    0.32%    (3 Seats -5)
Heath and Birchgrove Independents     3539    0.24%    (1 Seat)
None of the Above Parties     3012    0.21%    (2 Seats +2)
United Kingdom Independence Party     2552    0.17%    (2 Seats +2)
People Before Politics     2226    0.15%    (1 Seat)
Merthyr Independents     2212    0.15%    (2 Seats -4)
Social Democratic Party     2156    0.15%    (1 Seat -2)
Independent Ratepayers     2084    0.14%    (1 Seat +1)
James Michael Brinning, Ind Lab     1992    0.13%
Trade Unionists and Socialists     1476    0.10%
Llandaff North Independents     1114    0.07%
Communist      813    0.05%
Christian People's Alliance      745    0.05%
Socialist Labour Party      678    0.04%
British National Party      261    0.01%
Independent Plaid Cymru      214    0.01%    (1 Seat)
National Front      138    0.00%