He can narrowly defeat my Virgil Goode any day of the week.

But has he yet? 

Maybe the final Rasmussen poll was just accurate showing Wicker leading 54%-43%, but almost every other poll indicated a close result in the special election.  True, I predicted Wicker would defeat Musgrove 52%-47%, but I thought that both he and Obama would higher than they did.  Was it simply that blacks were not very organized in getting out the vote (Not that they didn't vote, but their overall effect wasn't maximized).  Or was the infusion of RNC cash enough?  Basically, why did Wicker beat Musgrove by much more than one would have thought?  As far as I know, no one predicted a 12% victory. 

Jim Marshall, Parker Griffith and Bobby Bright should worry about 2010.  They definitely have to be some of the most vulnerable. 

If Griffith can build up a personal following in the rural parts of his district he might be alright (Cramer was in the same situation in much of the '90's). I don't know about Bright. Marshall is a dead man walking.

I suppose there is a precedent for a conservative, rural Democrat to hold Griffith's seat.  The thing about Bobby Bright is that he managed to win his seat even as McCain must have been defeating Obama pretty heavily in it.  I know he was helped by Smith endorsing him over Love but still, I wonder if he might be alright in an off-year.  And Marshall is battle-hardened but 2010 could be bad for him - however, by then he will have been in that seat for some time and might be able to pull it out.  Anyway, I'd still call them three of the most vulnerable Democratic Congressman going into 2010.

Jim Marshall, Parker Griffith and Bobby Bright should worry about 2010.  They definitely have to be some of the most vulnerable. 

Both candidates are now apparently preparing for a run-off on 2nd December.  The race should be close given the result earlier this month and Chambliss reportedly has both John McCain and Sarah Palin coming into campaign for him, while Martin has solicited the aid of Obama.  Although Chambliss must be favoured, I think given the current political climate in Georgia (Obama didn't win the state as some hoped, but he still significantly narrowed Bush's 2004 margin and enfranchised many new black and young voters) Martin could have a chance.  If white turnout is down, and eh can succeed in getting blacks to the polls with Obama's help - he has a chance.  What do we think?

OK so we can answer this now.  I've noticed a couple in Virginia and West Virginia, and a lot in Arkansas obviously.  I haven't looked at Kentucky.  But are there any other interesting non-
Southern ones?

I really wish Martin would defeat Chambliss in the run-off.  This is the race I most want to win, and despite what everyone has said, I think if Martin is able to rally blacks and talk about tax cuts for the middle class - he can win. 

I'm guessing Obama will barely win NC and MO.

I agree.  If you believe in swing-state momentum and that all the dominoes fall in the direction, blah blah, then Obama should sweep North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana - should do anyway.  My prediction:

NORTH CAROLINA -
49% (D) Obama
48% (R) McCain
  2% Others


MISSOURI -
50% (D) Obama
47% (R) McCain
  2% Others


INDIANA -
49% (D) Obama
48% (R) McCain
  2% Others


Something like that anyway.

Whatever happened to VA-2, do the Democrats have a chance there?

My prediction:

MAINE PRESIDENT -
58% (D) Obama
40% (R) McCain
  1% Others


MAINE SENATE -
52% (R) Collins
47% (D) Allen

My prediction:

NEW JERSEY PRESIDENT -
56% (D) Obama
41% (R) McCain
  2% Others


NEW JERSEY SENATE -
52% (D) Lautenberg
43% (R) Whoever?
  4% Others

My prediction:

MONTANA PRESIDENT -
50% (R) McCain
45% (D) Obama
  4% Others

My prediction:

FLORIDA PRESIDENT -
51% (D) Obama
47% (R) McCain
  1% Others


The real strength of Obama's margin statewide will come from the overwhelming support and turnout of African-Americans coupled with new Democratic support amongst Hispanics: you heard it here first.

My prediction:

NEW MEXICO PRESIDENT -
53% (D) Obama
45% (R) McCain
  1% Others


NEW MEXICO SENATE -
57% (D) Udall
42% (R) Pearce

My prediction:

KENTUCKY PRESIDENT -
57% (R) McCain
42% (D) Obama


KENTUCKY SENATE -
52% (R) McConnell
47% (D) Lunsford

My prediction:

GEORGIA PRESIDENT -
50% (R) McCain
47% (D) Obama
  2% Others


GEORGIA SENATE -
49% (R) Chambliss
46% (D) Martin
  4% (L) Buckley

My prediction:

VIRGINIA PRESIDENT -
50% (D) Obama
47% (R) McCain
  2% Others


The margin has definitely narrowed - but I still think Obama wins.  At least, he'll take it 49%-48%.

I'm going for a shot in the dark in saying:

OHIO PRESIDENT -
51% (D) Obama
47% (R) McCain
  1% Others


But it may well be closer.

I think this is right, Obama will crack 60%. 

I still think Obama wins here in the end, as he sweeps all the swing states in my view.

My prediction:

GEORGIA PRESIDENT -
50% (R) McCain
47% (D) Obama
  2% Others


GEORGIA SENATE -
49% (R) Chambliss
46% (D) Martin
  4% (L) Buckley



MISSISSIPPI PRESIDENT -
54% (R) McCain
45% (D) Obama


MISSISSIPPI SENATE -
52% (R) Wicker
47% (D) Musgrove

Chambliss-Martin seem headed to an inevitable run-off - roll on December and depressed White coupled with high Black turnout!

Rockefeller won 63%-37% last time and I would have expected him to increase his margin this time, but perhaps the Presidential race will affect the result somewhat.  Yet although I believe McCain will win West Virginia, it will not be a significant victory.  My prediction:

WEST VIRGINIA PRESIDENT -
54% (R) McCain
45% (D) Obama


WEST VIRGINIA SENATE -
62% (D) Rockfeller
36% (R) Wolfe
  1% Others

My prediction:

PENNSYLVANIA PRESIDENT -
53% (D) Obama
45% (R) McCain
  1% Others

15% undecided.... oh come on!!!

McCain will win LA.... hmmmm

M - 56 O - 42

I agree.  And I predict Landrieu is re-elected, it could be anything from 52%-57% so I'll say 54% is most likely.