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3401  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: GOP Plot Strategy to Turn Maryland Republican on: January 11, 2006, 12:24:10 pm
Didn't Bush win New Mexico because in 2004, 44% of Hispanics voted for him; whereas in in 2000, 32% did?  In Iowa, I thought the case was simply that between 2000 and 2004 Republican overtook Democratic voter registration.
3402  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Crazy New Montana Poll: Conrad Burns loses Lead on: January 11, 2006, 10:38:24 am
Not very good.  He's never been as popular as his colleague Max Baucus.  In 1988 he defeated incumbent John Melcher 51%-48%.  In the Republican Revolution of 1994 he won 62%-38%.  In 2000, when Brian Schweitzer challenged him he won by only 51%-47%, despite the fact that Bush was carrying Montana 58%-33% over Al Gore.  His approval has never been excellent.  I believe Burns is definitely one of the most vulnerable incumbents up for re-election this year.

3403  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Conrad Burns will not retire on: January 10, 2006, 05:26:47 pm
I can't believe I'd just posted the 'Will Conrad Burns Retire?' thread when this popped up!  Burns is damaged now and he has never been overly popular in Montana.  Still I think the campaign will be close.
3404  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2000 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The Muslim Vote on: January 10, 2006, 03:48:30 pm
Kerry probably made huge inroads in 2004.  He probably carried 80%.
3405  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Conrad Burns will not retire on: January 10, 2006, 03:11:10 pm
Yes! I am very relieved, now we have a real chance to pick up another seat in the senate.  The Republicans could well rue the day Conrad Burns decided to carry on running for re-election.  I wish Trent Lott would do the same, hurry up and state whether he intends to run again or not; the suspense annoys me.
3406  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: TX. Gov. mock election on: January 10, 2006, 03:08:12 pm
I have to be boringly partisan and go for Bell.  Where does Friedman stand on the issues?
3407  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Novak: If Trent Lott Retires, Democrat Moore Would Win His Seat on: January 10, 2006, 12:53:31 pm
I think he will too, unfortunately for us.
3408  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: GOP Plot Strategy to Turn Maryland Republican on: January 10, 2006, 12:37:45 pm
I'm interested about your South Carolina theory, how?  I personally think NC is more winnable for Democrats.

Its interesting that the MD GOP appears to be basing its efforts on the Virginia trend, which surely happened during the 1960s-1980s?  This was part of a trend evident across the whole South.  Maryland is closer to Delaware and Pennsylvania's Democratic impulse than to Virginia and West Virginia.  It also appears that Virginia is trending Democrat now.  I think that the liberal bastions of Baltimore and environs will keep the state Democrat.  A little like Chicago and Illinois, is it that Maryland would vote Republican without Baltimore?  Also, isn't Ehrlich? endangered now anyway; again, in the senate race, Steele is trailing Cardin.  The Republicans will have to wait until 2010 when possibly Milkulski retires to be in with a chance.
3409  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Rasmussen: TX Gov - Perry leads Strayhorn by 19%; Bell trails Strayhorn by 7% on: January 10, 2006, 12:12:53 pm
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Texas%20Governor%20January%205.htm

Perry (R) - 40%
Strayhorn (I) - 21%
Bell (D) - 14%
Friedman (I) - 12%

I thought Perry might actually win a majority of the vote but it appears unlikely.  If only Strayhorn was a Democrat.  Also, will Strayhorn beat Bell in the end?  Will even Friedman beat Bell?
3410  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / MT Senate: Burns To Drop Out? on: January 10, 2006, 12:07:44 pm
According to http://www.politics1.com/ '...In the wake of GOP lobbyist Jack Abramoff's guilty plea last week, speculation is running rampant inside the beltway that US Senator Conrad Burns (R) will quit his re-election contest. Roll Call speculated Congressman Denny Rehberg -- a former Lieutenant Governor -- will be the GOP's replacement candidate. Another name I'd throw into the mix would be former Governor and former Republican National Chairman Marc Racicot. The RNC last month sent Racicot on a tour of the state to drum up support for President Bush's programs. If Rehberg runs, the move would also open Montana's lone US House seat. That move could prompt one of the leading Dems currently in the US Senate race to switch into the open House seat contest. In a state where the Dems captured the governorship, the State House and State Senate, and won 3 of the other 4 statewide offices in 2004 -- despite Bush carrying the state by a wide margin -- these could all become competitive open seat contests.'

Does anyone think Burns might retire?  I read that Burns might have been expected not to run again this year and Rehberg was expected to replace him, but that Burns seemed solidy behind another run and that Rehberg got a seat on the House Appropriations Committee, usually a sign of a long career in Congress.  So would Rehberg be a better candidate for the GOP?      Also, what of Marc Racicot? 

I imagine the open seat would attract either Morrison or Tester as well.  Your thoughts?

3411  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: The 1974 Presidential Election on: January 09, 2006, 03:49:28 pm
Interesting.  I suppose one would have to start with an election in 1790 and continue until the present day.  Otherwise its impossible for us to know who won or what history is like.  I suppose that Roosevelt runs in 1930 a year after the Great Depression and defeats Hoover more narrowly, his period in office is now 1931-45; Truman doesn't have enough time and loses to Dewey in a great year for the Republicans.  From then on?
3412  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: TX-Sen: Move on... Nothing to see here. on: January 09, 2006, 03:46:14 pm
I'm annoyed that Texas is so GOP-ised.  Surely a one-party state isn't practical or good?  I know that MA has an all-Democrat congressional delegation, but it has elected Republican Governors since 1990.

Texas hasn't had a Democratic Governor since 1994; it has no state-wide elected Democrats and who can realistically see Democrats winning the 2010 Gubernatorial race?  No Democrat has topped 40% here since 1996, and I have a feeling that Bill Clinton should logically have won that state.  The fact that he lost 48%-43% shows just how Republican Texas is.

Apart from this partisan rambling, will Democrats have a competetive race sometime in the future?  Is Henry Cuellar a viable candidate?  I don't think the Senate will be open in 2008, because Cornyn is averagely popular in the Lone Star State and he will be supported by a Republican at the top of the presidential ticket.  In 2012, Hutchison could run again, this is barring either deaths, resignations or appointments to other posts that might remove either Hutchison or Cornyn, but if she did not I suppose we are done for again because its a presidential year.  I could go on in this vein for sometime...
3413  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: TX-Sen: Move on... Nothing to see here. on: January 09, 2006, 11:18:27 am
Will Hutchison top 70% of the vote?
3414  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: The next Vermonts and West Virginias on: January 09, 2006, 11:15:14 am
Virginia is becoming more Democratic, in 2008, if Mark Warner will be the nominee, the old heart of the Confederacy could vote for us. Similarly, I think the same trend is occuring in North Carolina, which is becoming more metro and diverse. In some Southerns states, like Mississippi and South Carolina, isn't the black population rising as more urban African-Americans from the North return to the heartland and whites leave. In Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin, I think the GOP trend was evident from 1996-2004; in the last presidential election, MN moved back towards the Democrats - I think it has a long history of attachment to the party of organized labour and its politicians like Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale. I think Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania will remain swing states.
3415  Election Archive / 2006 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: Rasmussen: Florida Governor Race a Tossup on: January 08, 2006, 08:54:07 am
Why isn't Lieutenant Governor Toni Jennings favoured?  She's not mentioned in matchups.  Doesn't she have an advantage of office?
3416  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mid Terms 2006 : State Assessments on: January 08, 2006, 07:33:42 am
The Governor's race will have some affects on turnout in Alabama though.  I expect North Carolina, where no statewide officials are running, to have low turnout.  What will be interesting though is if battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Ohio, which were closely contested in the 2004 presidential election, can maintain the same level of voter turnout from two years ago.  The Casey-Santorum contest in PA will surely attract high turnout, but will it be to the same degree as 2004?  Also in OH, DeWine vs. Brown or Hackett might at least bring Democrats out to give Republicans a closer run than the 20-point marginss they've enjoyed there in the past few state races.
3417  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Majority Leader - Republicans only please... on: January 08, 2006, 04:40:12 am
Doesn't Blunt have a natural advantage as he is currently serving as the interim?
3418  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Intrade begins to take money for senate races. on: January 07, 2006, 05:55:00 pm
Can someone explain to me how this works? I'm sorry for being such a novice but I don't have a clear idea of it.
3419  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: DeWine leads Hackett by 4%, Brown by 5% on: January 06, 2006, 07:04:42 pm
Surely its time for Democrats to take some offices in Ohio? The GOP's controlled the Governor's mansion since 1990 and both Senate seats since 1999.  Can Hackett beat Brown in the primary? I think its kind of interesting that Brown has had statewide experience as Secretary of State.  What was his record like? I really hope Hackett wins and beats DeWine.
3420  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Why did McGovern do so well in Massachusetts in 1972? on: January 06, 2006, 04:13:20 pm
Its amazing that he beat Nixon by nearly ten points as he lost everywhere else expect D.C. I can't understand how, when Nixon beat McGovern 60%-37% in 1972, he lost Massachusetts; and yet when Reagan defeated Mondale 58%-40% in 1984 he won MA by 51%-48%.

Did Massachusetts shift to the right? Humphrey won big there in 1968 with 63% of the vote, so was there a decline from then on? Carter did only slightly better here than McGovern 56%-40%, not an amazing turnaround considering he won 13% more of the vote nationally in 1976. In 1980, also, Carter lost here. I'm sorry, I know it seems I'm answering my own questions here, but do you think Reagan's appeal to traditionally Democratic blue-collar Irish Catholics, a group he largely identified with due to his background, helped swing the state both times to him? As a final after-thought, Dukakis didn't even do that well here, he didn't even beat Bush by 10%, so there must have been some slippage from McGovern's time.
3421  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rasmussen: FL Sen - Nelson (D) 54%, Harris (R) 31% on: January 06, 2006, 12:11:52 pm
Excellent analysis Lt. Governor Ben. Though I'm not quite sure how the Ohio Senate race ended up in Florida?
3422  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Rasmussen: FL Sen - Nelson (D) 54%, Harris (R) 31% on: January 05, 2006, 10:20:35 am
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Florida%20Senate%20January%203.htm

Florida's senior Senator holds a 23-point lead over Congresswoman Harris in his bad for re-election. Harris wins 59% of Republican voters in their hypothetical matchup; Nelson holds a 64%-18% lead over her amongst unaffiliated voters in the Sunshine State. Nelson wins the approval of 54% of voters to 29% disapproval.

So what happens now?
3423  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Las Vegas Oscar Goodman considering run against Sen. Jon Ensign on: January 04, 2006, 03:07:05 pm
Hmm, this race could suddenly get interesting.  The main problem that Goodman will face is the latent hostility that many northern Nevadans tend to feel towards Las Vegas.  I predict that he will struggle everywhere but in his own city.

Yes but surely Goodman would carry the populous Clark County in a landslide; Ensign won it in 2000. If Goodman considers entering the race, then Nevada could be a potentially close contest for 2006.

I am confused, however, I thought Reid and Ensign were friendly towards each other and it was always said that the former wouldn't countenance a hard campaign against the latter because of their bipartisan friendship.

Still, this looks to be good news. The Democrats have really done well in the recruitment process, unlike the GOP.  This is not an attack, merely an observation that the Republicans led by Dole are having a more difficult time than in the past in securing top-tier challengers.  Democrats led by Schumer appear to be recruiting several strong possibilities: Casey in Pennsylvania; McCaskill in Missouri; Ford, Jr. in Tennessee; and Hackett in Ohio. The only weakness is not getting Warner to challenge Allen in Virginia or perhaps Attorneys General Mike Hatch in Minnesota and Terry Goddard in Arizona.
3424  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: McCaskill leads Talent by 3% in new Rasmussen Poll on: January 04, 2006, 10:41:02 am
This is excellent news! I can't say I am completely confident that McCaskill has momentum; but Talent has definitely become less than secure. Still this poll marks a good sign that McCaskill is improving, in September they were tied at 46%, in November she led him 47%-45%.
3425  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which house do the Democrats have a better shot at taking over? on: January 02, 2006, 02:15:12 pm
I'm unsure. I guess in the Senate to take control we need to gain 6 seats; i.e. Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Montana, Missouri, Ohio and Tennessee. I have to say that I believe it is unlikely that we will these for any number of reasons. I feel that if we pick up anything at the end of this year we will be lucky. But overall, we can't imagine how November 2006 will be now.

In the House, it seems we will definitely pick up some seats and we have a few targets: Sodrel in Indiana, DeLay in Texas, Hyde's open in Illinois, Musgrave in Colorado, etc. But I don't think all the marginals will align towards us; I wouldn't rule out some losses of our own and I don't think we have enough to overtake the GOP majority.

I am still undecided as to how to vote in this poll.
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