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3401  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Novak: If Trent Lott Retires, Democrat Moore Would Win His Seat on: January 10, 2006, 12:53:31 pm
I think he will too, unfortunately for us.
3402  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: GOP Plot Strategy to Turn Maryland Republican on: January 10, 2006, 12:37:45 pm
I'm interested about your South Carolina theory, how?  I personally think NC is more winnable for Democrats.

Its interesting that the MD GOP appears to be basing its efforts on the Virginia trend, which surely happened during the 1960s-1980s?  This was part of a trend evident across the whole South.  Maryland is closer to Delaware and Pennsylvania's Democratic impulse than to Virginia and West Virginia.  It also appears that Virginia is trending Democrat now.  I think that the liberal bastions of Baltimore and environs will keep the state Democrat.  A little like Chicago and Illinois, is it that Maryland would vote Republican without Baltimore?  Also, isn't Ehrlich? endangered now anyway; again, in the senate race, Steele is trailing Cardin.  The Republicans will have to wait until 2010 when possibly Milkulski retires to be in with a chance.
3403  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Rasmussen: TX Gov - Perry leads Strayhorn by 19%; Bell trails Strayhorn by 7% on: January 10, 2006, 12:12:53 pm

Perry (R) - 40%
Strayhorn (I) - 21%
Bell (D) - 14%
Friedman (I) - 12%

I thought Perry might actually win a majority of the vote but it appears unlikely.  If only Strayhorn was a Democrat.  Also, will Strayhorn beat Bell in the end?  Will even Friedman beat Bell?
3404  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / MT Senate: Burns To Drop Out? on: January 10, 2006, 12:07:44 pm
According to http://www.politics1.com/ '...In the wake of GOP lobbyist Jack Abramoff's guilty plea last week, speculation is running rampant inside the beltway that US Senator Conrad Burns (R) will quit his re-election contest. Roll Call speculated Congressman Denny Rehberg -- a former Lieutenant Governor -- will be the GOP's replacement candidate. Another name I'd throw into the mix would be former Governor and former Republican National Chairman Marc Racicot. The RNC last month sent Racicot on a tour of the state to drum up support for President Bush's programs. If Rehberg runs, the move would also open Montana's lone US House seat. That move could prompt one of the leading Dems currently in the US Senate race to switch into the open House seat contest. In a state where the Dems captured the governorship, the State House and State Senate, and won 3 of the other 4 statewide offices in 2004 -- despite Bush carrying the state by a wide margin -- these could all become competitive open seat contests.'

Does anyone think Burns might retire?  I read that Burns might have been expected not to run again this year and Rehberg was expected to replace him, but that Burns seemed solidy behind another run and that Rehberg got a seat on the House Appropriations Committee, usually a sign of a long career in Congress.  So would Rehberg be a better candidate for the GOP?      Also, what of Marc Racicot? 

I imagine the open seat would attract either Morrison or Tester as well.  Your thoughts?

3405  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: The 1974 Presidential Election on: January 09, 2006, 03:49:28 pm
Interesting.  I suppose one would have to start with an election in 1790 and continue until the present day.  Otherwise its impossible for us to know who won or what history is like.  I suppose that Roosevelt runs in 1930 a year after the Great Depression and defeats Hoover more narrowly, his period in office is now 1931-45; Truman doesn't have enough time and loses to Dewey in a great year for the Republicans.  From then on?
3406  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: TX-Sen: Move on... Nothing to see here. on: January 09, 2006, 03:46:14 pm
I'm annoyed that Texas is so GOP-ised.  Surely a one-party state isn't practical or good?  I know that MA has an all-Democrat congressional delegation, but it has elected Republican Governors since 1990.

Texas hasn't had a Democratic Governor since 1994; it has no state-wide elected Democrats and who can realistically see Democrats winning the 2010 Gubernatorial race?  No Democrat has topped 40% here since 1996, and I have a feeling that Bill Clinton should logically have won that state.  The fact that he lost 48%-43% shows just how Republican Texas is.

Apart from this partisan rambling, will Democrats have a competetive race sometime in the future?  Is Henry Cuellar a viable candidate?  I don't think the Senate will be open in 2008, because Cornyn is averagely popular in the Lone Star State and he will be supported by a Republican at the top of the presidential ticket.  In 2012, Hutchison could run again, this is barring either deaths, resignations or appointments to other posts that might remove either Hutchison or Cornyn, but if she did not I suppose we are done for again because its a presidential year.  I could go on in this vein for sometime...
3407  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: TX-Sen: Move on... Nothing to see here. on: January 09, 2006, 11:18:27 am
Will Hutchison top 70% of the vote?
3408  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: The next Vermonts and West Virginias on: January 09, 2006, 11:15:14 am
Virginia is becoming more Democratic, in 2008, if Mark Warner will be the nominee, the old heart of the Confederacy could vote for us. Similarly, I think the same trend is occuring in North Carolina, which is becoming more metro and diverse. In some Southerns states, like Mississippi and South Carolina, isn't the black population rising as more urban African-Americans from the North return to the heartland and whites leave. In Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin, I think the GOP trend was evident from 1996-2004; in the last presidential election, MN moved back towards the Democrats - I think it has a long history of attachment to the party of organized labour and its politicians like Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale. I think Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania will remain swing states.
3409  Election Archive / 2006 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: Rasmussen: Florida Governor Race a Tossup on: January 08, 2006, 08:54:07 am
Why isn't Lieutenant Governor Toni Jennings favoured?  She's not mentioned in matchups.  Doesn't she have an advantage of office?
3410  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mid Terms 2006 : State Assessments on: January 08, 2006, 07:33:42 am
The Governor's race will have some affects on turnout in Alabama though.  I expect North Carolina, where no statewide officials are running, to have low turnout.  What will be interesting though is if battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Ohio, which were closely contested in the 2004 presidential election, can maintain the same level of voter turnout from two years ago.  The Casey-Santorum contest in PA will surely attract high turnout, but will it be to the same degree as 2004?  Also in OH, DeWine vs. Brown or Hackett might at least bring Democrats out to give Republicans a closer run than the 20-point marginss they've enjoyed there in the past few state races.
3411  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Majority Leader - Republicans only please... on: January 08, 2006, 04:40:12 am
Doesn't Blunt have a natural advantage as he is currently serving as the interim?
3412  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Intrade begins to take money for senate races. on: January 07, 2006, 05:55:00 pm
Can someone explain to me how this works? I'm sorry for being such a novice but I don't have a clear idea of it.
3413  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: DeWine leads Hackett by 4%, Brown by 5% on: January 06, 2006, 07:04:42 pm
Surely its time for Democrats to take some offices in Ohio? The GOP's controlled the Governor's mansion since 1990 and both Senate seats since 1999.  Can Hackett beat Brown in the primary? I think its kind of interesting that Brown has had statewide experience as Secretary of State.  What was his record like? I really hope Hackett wins and beats DeWine.
3414  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Why did McGovern do so well in Massachusetts in 1972? on: January 06, 2006, 04:13:20 pm
Its amazing that he beat Nixon by nearly ten points as he lost everywhere else expect D.C. I can't understand how, when Nixon beat McGovern 60%-37% in 1972, he lost Massachusetts; and yet when Reagan defeated Mondale 58%-40% in 1984 he won MA by 51%-48%.

Did Massachusetts shift to the right? Humphrey won big there in 1968 with 63% of the vote, so was there a decline from then on? Carter did only slightly better here than McGovern 56%-40%, not an amazing turnaround considering he won 13% more of the vote nationally in 1976. In 1980, also, Carter lost here. I'm sorry, I know it seems I'm answering my own questions here, but do you think Reagan's appeal to traditionally Democratic blue-collar Irish Catholics, a group he largely identified with due to his background, helped swing the state both times to him? As a final after-thought, Dukakis didn't even do that well here, he didn't even beat Bush by 10%, so there must have been some slippage from McGovern's time.
3415  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rasmussen: FL Sen - Nelson (D) 54%, Harris (R) 31% on: January 06, 2006, 12:11:52 pm
Excellent analysis Lt. Governor Ben. Though I'm not quite sure how the Ohio Senate race ended up in Florida?
3416  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Rasmussen: FL Sen - Nelson (D) 54%, Harris (R) 31% on: January 05, 2006, 10:20:35 am

Florida's senior Senator holds a 23-point lead over Congresswoman Harris in his bad for re-election. Harris wins 59% of Republican voters in their hypothetical matchup; Nelson holds a 64%-18% lead over her amongst unaffiliated voters in the Sunshine State. Nelson wins the approval of 54% of voters to 29% disapproval.

So what happens now?
3417  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Las Vegas Oscar Goodman considering run against Sen. Jon Ensign on: January 04, 2006, 03:07:05 pm
Hmm, this race could suddenly get interesting.  The main problem that Goodman will face is the latent hostility that many northern Nevadans tend to feel towards Las Vegas.  I predict that he will struggle everywhere but in his own city.

Yes but surely Goodman would carry the populous Clark County in a landslide; Ensign won it in 2000. If Goodman considers entering the race, then Nevada could be a potentially close contest for 2006.

I am confused, however, I thought Reid and Ensign were friendly towards each other and it was always said that the former wouldn't countenance a hard campaign against the latter because of their bipartisan friendship.

Still, this looks to be good news. The Democrats have really done well in the recruitment process, unlike the GOP.  This is not an attack, merely an observation that the Republicans led by Dole are having a more difficult time than in the past in securing top-tier challengers.  Democrats led by Schumer appear to be recruiting several strong possibilities: Casey in Pennsylvania; McCaskill in Missouri; Ford, Jr. in Tennessee; and Hackett in Ohio. The only weakness is not getting Warner to challenge Allen in Virginia or perhaps Attorneys General Mike Hatch in Minnesota and Terry Goddard in Arizona.
3418  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: McCaskill leads Talent by 3% in new Rasmussen Poll on: January 04, 2006, 10:41:02 am
This is excellent news! I can't say I am completely confident that McCaskill has momentum; but Talent has definitely become less than secure. Still this poll marks a good sign that McCaskill is improving, in September they were tied at 46%, in November she led him 47%-45%.
3419  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which house do the Democrats have a better shot at taking over? on: January 02, 2006, 02:15:12 pm
I'm unsure. I guess in the Senate to take control we need to gain 6 seats; i.e. Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Montana, Missouri, Ohio and Tennessee. I have to say that I believe it is unlikely that we will these for any number of reasons. I feel that if we pick up anything at the end of this year we will be lucky. But overall, we can't imagine how November 2006 will be now.

In the House, it seems we will definitely pick up some seats and we have a few targets: Sodrel in Indiana, DeLay in Texas, Hyde's open in Illinois, Musgrave in Colorado, etc. But I don't think all the marginals will align towards us; I wouldn't rule out some losses of our own and I don't think we have enough to overtake the GOP majority.

I am still undecided as to how to vote in this poll.
3420  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Rasmussen: CT Gov - Rell (R) 65%, Malloy (D) 21%, DeStefano (D) 19% on: January 01, 2006, 03:32:40 pm
Rowland received 62.90% to be annoyingly precise. Its on this website: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/GOVERNOR/index.html.

I guess Joe Lieberman will be running for re-election; Lieberman is popular amongst both Republicans and Democrats and in 1994 and 2000 garned margins above what Rowland received. In 2006, in what is likely to be a Democratic year, he could got 62%-68% I feel. That would affect Rell's chances of hitting Rowland's 62.90% (likely) or above and around Lieberman's (67% in 1994, 63% in 2000) (unlikely)
3421  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Rasmussen: CT Gov - Rell (R) 65%, Malloy (D) 21%, DeStefano (D) 19% on: January 01, 2006, 02:59:07 pm
So do you think Rell can hit 65% re-election mark? Even 70% against a no-name Democrat who is poorly funded?
3422  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Rasmussen: CT Gov - Rell (R) 65%, Malloy (D) 21%, DeStefano (D) 19% on: January 01, 2006, 01:13:07 pm

This is almost not worth posting. But Rell holds what Rasmussen describes as 'in Command' and and 'huge lead' in two matchups with:

Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy who wins 21% to her 65%;

New Haven Mayor John DeStefano, Jr. has 19% to Rell who remains on 65%.

Rell's approval is currently at 87%; 81% believe she's doing a good job.

3423  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Robert Novak: Will the Supreme Court Cost the GOP the House of Representatives? on: December 31, 2005, 01:41:42 pm
Will the Supreme Court Cost the GOP the House of Representatives?
By Robert Novak
Dec 31, 2005    

WASHINGTON -- James P. Hoffa faces a possible challenge for re-election as president of the Teamsters in 2006 from the union's Southern leader, Tyson Johnson of Dallas.

The threat is considered serious enough by Hoffa for him to meet secretly with Johnson, a Teamsters vice president for the Southern Region, Dec. 21 at the Phoenix airport. The meeting's results were described by union sources as inconclusive, and Johnson has not definitely committed himself to running.

Hoffa has led the Teamsters out of the AFL-CIO for the second time and has been a national leader among union chiefs seeking a new direction to energize the labor movement. However, Hoffa has come under fire inside his union from erstwhile allies such as Johnson.


Before the Senate refused to close debate on the defense appropriations bill containing a provision to permit oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska several times assured the White House that he had the votes to invoke cloture.
The White House relied entirely on Stevens, president pro tempore of the Senate as the chamber's senior Republican, to get the votes. But he did not collect the two-thirds of senators needed to force the bill to a vote, and ANWR was removed from the military bill.

Stevens admitted defeat with an unusually bitter speech Dec. 21, the last night the full Senate was in session. "I don't deserve some of the comments that have been made by some senators," he said, referring to criticism for inserting ANWR in the defense bill. He indicated he especially resented criticism by Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd, the Senate's senior member.


The biggest Republican concern about future control of the House rests with the Supreme Court's decision in the Texas congressional redistricting case.

Republican leaders were stunned when the court agreed to a review. They had thought the issue was settled when the justices, by five to four, refused to consider a similar case in Pennsylvania. But Justice Anthony Kennedy, who cast the decisive vote on the Pennsylvania case, is a swing vote who could go the other way on Texas.

Even if the Supreme Court rules against the redistricting orchestrated by Rep. Tom DeLay, it might come too late to affect the 2006 election. Republicans gained six House seats from Texas after the redistricting.


Rep. Sherwood Boehlert, one of the most liberal Republicans in Congress who is now serving his 12th term from upstate New York, might not seek re-election in 2006 if he is shut out from committee chairmanships.

Boehlert is serving his last year as Science Committee chairman thanks to term limits. Although he is next in line to head the Transportation Committee (a principal dispenser of pork), current Chairman Don Young of Alaska is expected to block Boehlert's ascension. Boehlert's lifetime support record by the American Conservative Union is only 40 percent.
A footnote: Rep. Tom Petri of Wisconsin is next in line at Transportation after Boehlert, but he may be stopped because of his support for a gas tax increase. That choice chairmanship could fall to Rep. John J. Duncan Jr. of Tennessee.


In sessions preceding their holiday recess, Democratic members of Congress peppered their floor speeches and press releases with references to Republicans as "Scrooge" and the "Grinch."

Rep. Bennie Thompson of Mississippi said the Republican budget bill was "a gift from an extremist Grinch." Rep. Dave Obey of Wisconsin said "Scrooge-onomics" best described Republican budget policy. "Bah humbug!" bellowed Sen. Edward M. Kennedy in two floor speeches. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said comparing Republicans with Scrooge "gives Scrooge a bad name." At least 19 members engaged in such rhetoric.

A footnote: Responding to this Democratic holiday-bashing, Republican Sen. Judd Gregg of New Hampshire declared: "Let me point out that 'How the Grinch Stole Christmas' is a wonderful story. A fellow who went to school in New Hampshire wrote it. It is a fantasy."

News Analysis
Robert Novak is a Fox News Commentator and a columnist who writes Inside Report.

Copyright 2005 Creators Syndicate, Inc.
3424  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA Attorney General recount: McDonnell (R) wins with margin of 323 votes on: December 31, 2005, 05:49:41 am
Does this now set McDonnell up as the Republican nominee for Governor in 2009 now then?
3425  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / President Kerry - Election Night 2004. on: December 30, 2005, 05:49:19 pm
After a long and protracted night of returns, on 3rd November 2004, Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts is declared the winner of the U.S. Presidential election. Kerry carries Ohio by 59,300 votes to win the Electoral College 271-266 over President George W. Bush.

However, a curious feat has repeated itself; in 2000, when Bush defeated Vice President Al Gore, he won the Electoral College but lost the popular vote. Now, Kerry has done the same. As the 3rd November dawns Bush leads in the popular vote. TV news reports Kerry the winner, tentatively, as NBC, ABC, CBS and finally FOX agree that Kerry will become the nation's 44th President. Following this confirmation, at 2.53am Kerry walks out of his Boston home hand in hand with his wife Teresa, followed by his two daughters and his wife's three sons.

Kerry gives a short speech claiming victory, saying "I spoke with George Bush on the phone a few minutes ago, and he congratulated me as the winner of our contest. I would like to thank him for his graciousness and to claim victory for myself. It has been a tremendous effort on both sides. Our nation has expressed a desire for change; the right kind of change, change that recognises our values and traditions while building the road ahead to the rest of the 21st century. I would like to say thank you to my country and to say this also, I will try to vindicate the decision you have made. I know that as a people, we have some divisions in America today yet when I govern I will do all I can to heal them. God bless you all and God bless our great country."

While the crowd in Boston enthusiastically chears, on television some analysts express surprise that Kerry claimed victory before Bush officially conceded. Republican strategist Ed Rollins tells FOX "Its a disappointment to lose, but its a greater disappointment when your opponent kicks you when your down. This kind of reaction isn't worthy of the American system or her people". There are also briefly expressed fears that the spectacle of the 2000 election will be recreated; recounts, suits and political uncertainty in the country. These doubts are soon allayed, however, when cameras pan to the White House where at 3.03am President Bush appears to concede.

"Let me first say that I offer Senator Kerry my congratulations. We spoke on the phone a while ago and I wished him well. I would like to thank my supporters for all their hard work in recent days, and to ask them to pray for America and for the Senator. I would like to thank and bless the American people as a whole. This is their decision, and I respect them." The President appears solemn and speaks carefully, at his left shoulder stands his wife Laura who smiles between her husband and the cameras. The President's daughters are also present. At the end of his statement the President grasps his family firmly, and they embrace before the cameras.

As the night draws on, Vice President Dick Cheney and Vice President-elect John Edwards issue statements to the press. Cheney's, issued at 3.12am, reads: 'The people have made an important decision tonight. The President and I are honoured to have served our nation during testing times. While thanking all those citizens who voted for us, we would like to congratulate Senator Kerry and give him a smooth period of transition as President-elect. God bless America. Senator John Edwards himself appears outisde the Sheraton Hotel in Washington, D.C. at 3.36am. Standing alone, the Vice President-elect reads from a short bulletin "God bless you all and God bless America. President-elect Kerry and I are honoured to have been given the opportunity to govern this great nation. President Bush has been a spirited opponent, and his concession was noble in the great spirit of our Republic. We wish him all the best and pray for him. The people have spoken, and we are ready to hear them again." Edwards then proceeds to answer questions from the press. On a night in which the Republicans gained 4 seats in the Senate and 3 in the House of Representatives, Edwards is asked if the new President will find it hard to govern and pass his legislative programme, and if he will find it hard to preside over a Congress controlled by the opposition. "Well I think we will have to work together for the country. We are a nation at war, and there is much that needs to be done. We are very keen to begin the transition process and to meet with Congressional leaders to oversee a cooperative new session." He is also asked, how, as it appears to be becoming more clear that Kerry will be a President with no popular electoral mandate, he can hope to lead and unite a divided nation. "We have just held a very important contest", replies Edwards. "But now its over. We are ready to do business and ready to take up the reins come January. I think that the fair spirit of the people means that they will give us a chance and get behind us for the good of America." A follow-up is asked to the last question, has the defeat of the incumbent President, elected without an electoral mandate and also in the midst of a war, set a precedent? "I do not know if precedent is the right word. Americans have made a choice, but we are aware that there our differences of opinion in this nation. Together, we believe we can lead all the people to peace and prosperity under the flag of America, united." Following this Edwars says he will answer no more questions, and, waving to the crowds, goes back inside the Sheraton.

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