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3426  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2007 Gubernatorial Races on: December 29, 2005, 03:29:35 pm
Landrieu is a Senator, not a governor.

But I pretty much agree with you. Blanco and Fletcher are likely to be defeated and Barbour is likely to be re-elected (although there's also a good chance he'll run for president).

Sorry. Duh! I thought that might have gone wrong somewhere.
3427  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / 2007 Gubernatorial Races on: December 29, 2005, 03:24:34 pm
Is it more or less fair to say that both Governors Kathleen Blanco (D-LA) and Ernie Fletcher (R-KY) are likely to be defeated in 2007 as Governor Haley Barbour (R-MS) is re-elected?

In the recent SurveyUSA - 50 State Gov Approval, Blanco ranked 47th in approval 63% Disaproval to 33% Approval while Fletcher ranked at 48th - 63% Disapproval to 31% Approval. By contrast, Barbour's ratings in Mississippi are 55%-38% in his favour. Thus it seems likely that Democrats and Republicans switch the Louisiana and Kentucky Governor's Mansions in 2007 while the GOP holds Mississippi.

Then, who do you think will be the likely winners in these contests in the two states? I guess in Louisiana a Democrat could challenge Blanco in the primary - Congressman Jefferson, Melancon or Lieutenant Governor Landrieu? In LA for the Republicans, both Senator David Vitter and Bobby Jindal would be the favourites. Jindal lost to Landrieu in 2003 and now serves in the District Vitter represented before he was elected in 2004. But both Landrieu and Vitter have only served since January 2005, which appears to be a very short amount of time before you decide to run for something else.

In Kentucky, like in Jindal, Representative Chandler, who lost to him in 2003 could challenge Fletcher. I think the Democratic bench in Kentucky is quite shallow, apart from Daniel Mongiardo or Ken Lucas who else is there with the statewide recognition?

What do you think?
3428  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Maine county swings and 'trends' v. the nation on: December 29, 2005, 03:10:18 pm
That was really interesting analysis; thank you.
3429  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Senators by party over the last 50 years. on: December 29, 2005, 05:40:32 am
Thats interesting. Is Nebraska about to go very light red if Nelson is re-elected in 2006? Virginia is a surprise to me; I guess there will be no Democrats there until 2008 if Warner retires and Allen is elected President.
3430  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Maine county swings and 'trends' v. the nation on: December 28, 2005, 05:59:37 pm
I can't actually see any of those. Maine seems difficult to predict due to the character it shares with New Hampshire and Vermont; I imagine it will continue voting Democratic but it go narrowly for John McCain if he campaigned there and given the right circumstances.
3431  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who would you have voted for... on: December 28, 2005, 05:57:54 pm
1904 Roosevelt

1908 Bryan

1912 Wilson

1916 Wilson

1920 Cox

1924 LaFollette

1928 Smith

1932 Roosevelt

1936 Roosevelt

1940 Roosevelt

1944 Roosevelt

1948 Truman

1952 Stevenson

1956 Stevenson

1960 Kennedy

1964 Johnson

1968 Humphrey

1972 McGovern

1976 Carter

1980 Carter

1984 Mondale

1988 Dukakis

1992 Clinton

1996 Clinton

2000 Gore

2004 Kerry
3432  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Novak: If Trent Lott Retires, Democrat Moore Would Win His Seat on: December 28, 2005, 05:53:25 pm
Out of interest, does any one know whether John Stennis was ever pushed close by a Republican challenger?

Stennis was re-elected unopposed in 1952, 1958, 1964 and 1976. In 1970 he defeated Independent candidate William R. Thompson 88%-11%. In 1982 he defeated Hayley Barbour in what would be his last and his closest race by 64%-35%.
3433  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: Official Post your 2006 Senate Election Prediction Maps on: December 28, 2005, 05:26:49 pm

Dems pick up 7 seats and retake the Senate.  You heard it here first.
Vermont is Sanders.
3434  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Future Senators on: December 28, 2005, 05:12:41 pm
Hey this is my first post. Who do you expect to become a Senator eventually? I have some predictions -

If John McCain is elected President in 2008, a possibility could well be Governor Janet Napolitano, if she decides to complete her term as Governor though, Attorney General Terry Goddard would be the leading Democrat in a race.

We know that Sam Brownback has pledged to retire to run for President in 2008. My guess is that Governor Kathleen Sebelius would appoint herself to his seat, she would also have a fair chance of holding it in the election.

Carl Levin could well retire in 2008, if he does so then the most likely bet appears to be Representative Candice Miller running for his seat. Miller is broadly electable and considered so by the statewide GOP, who attempted to get her to run against Debbie Stabenow in 2006.

New Mexico
If, like Levin, Senator Pete Domenici retires in 2008, Representative Tom Udall could well be a likely candidate to run for the Democrats; another possibility might be Patricia Madrid, currently State Attorney General and a candidate against Heather Wilson in 2006.

If Arlen Specter dies or retires, I think Governor Rendell would appoint Barbara Hafer to the seat. This could happen before 2010.
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