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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel 2009 on: February 20, 2009, 10:04:19 am
Kadima seems to think they have more leverage than they do.   They should join the government.  The rotating PM stuff was never going to fly.

Looks like the days of ignoring Iran are over for at least the present.  Iran might want to tread a little lighter in the near future until the left regains control.  At that point they can resume their drive to destroy Israel.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel 2009 on: February 11, 2009, 03:54:02 pm
Netanyahu wants to be Prime Minister.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Does Coleman have a breath of life left in his candidacy? on: February 04, 2009, 03:56:06 pm
Why?
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Should Franken be seated immediately? on: January 19, 2009, 01:12:32 pm
Just as soon as the legal process is completed, sure.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Lynch is out on: January 15, 2009, 11:00:45 am
One of the few bits of good news for the GOP.  I wouldn't call Gregg safe, but he's pretty close to it.  He's solid.  Lynch's decision not to run is one of the few recruiting failures for senate Democrats over the last four years.   You win some - Jeb in Florida, and you lose some - Lynch in NH.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MN Sen Recount Results on: December 18, 2008, 03:13:53 pm
In spite of the way this is going, I will say that the canvassing board has played it straight down the middle.  Even the moveon.org SOS has appeared to be objective as he's chaired the reviews according to what I've seen on their webcam.

All I ever asked was that this thing be conducted fairly and Minn has done a good job IMO.

If this thing got decided by a bunch of partisan county election boards each using different standards in deciding to reject or accept the absentee ballots that weren't originally counted I'd have a major problem.  That could result in Republican county boards using a standard benefitting Coleman and say, Ramsey County using a different standard to benefit Frankin.  That would have made the whole thing a farce.

At least those absentee ballots don't seem to be the deciding factor and that is good.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MN Sen Recount Results on: December 18, 2008, 01:16:55 pm
800 challenges?

Yep, Coleman is toast.  Turns out many more Coleman challenges were Hail Mary like.  

It also turns out that Franken wins regardless of the court ruling on rejected absentee ballots.

I might add that I have no problem with the SOS and the canvasing board.  They appear to have played it down the middle.  Coleman's lead was fool's gold and I bought it until today, but I assumed Coleman had more than a handful of valid challenges relative to Frankin's.

Congrats to Senator elect Frankin.  As it turns out, this race was decided when the original canvasing gave Frankin the pick up of 480 votes prior to the recount.

Topic closed as far as I'm concerned.

8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Texas State House and Senate Races - 2008 on: December 16, 2008, 10:57:15 pm
Huffman was a very good candidate.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Shoes thrown at Bush on Iraq trip on: December 14, 2008, 04:40:54 pm
The NYT did a study after the 2000 election which, after examining the ballots remaining, determined that had the Supreme Court not stopped the count Bush would still have won the count.

Yeah, THAT New York Times.  That Bush loving, RNC controlled, Rush Limbaugh parroting, right wing partisan rag New York Times.

Shut up with the we was robbed in Florida bit.  It has long since gotten waaaaay beyond tiring.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: John Sharp declares bid for Texan Seat (Update: So does White) on: December 14, 2008, 02:40:43 pm
Lot of good Republican candidates.  Attorny general Abbot for example.  Important not to clutter things up too much in a special selection with too many party candidates.  Exactly what Sharp and White are doing to themselves.  Dilute the party vote too much and you don't get in the runoff.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: John Sharp declares bid for Texan Seat (Update: So does White) on: December 13, 2008, 07:48:56 pm
I can think of a number of state office holding Republicans who probably wake up night and say to themselves "why not me?"
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: John Sharp declares bid for Texan Seat (Update: So does White) on: December 13, 2008, 07:11:52 pm
I would think so.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: John Sharp declares bid for Texan Seat (Update: So does White) on: December 13, 2008, 06:58:12 pm
Hmmm.  Hadn't thought of that.  Legal, but politically I'm not sure that would fly.  Interesting....  Perry is not that popular in Texas BTW.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: John Sharp declares bid for Texan Seat (Update: So does White) on: December 13, 2008, 06:23:15 pm
I agree Sharp would be the stronger candidate in a runoff with the R although still a substantial underdog.  Having White in this does nothing but seal the final fate of Sharp.  And Sam is right, White would not win a statewide race against the Republican, particularly an interum sitting Republican senator.

Frankly, I'm shocked White didn't announce for governor although my guess is Kay Baily scared him off of that one.

Republicans won't lose this seat.  It's still Texas.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: John Sharp declares bid for Texan Seat (Update: So does White) on: December 13, 2008, 01:50:28 pm
I believe I said "for the reasons I stated above".  Those reasons are sound although I'd be happy to hear anyone's opinions to the contrary.

I would also be happy to see the Democratic Party drop millions of dollars into a campaign here.  Ten to 20 million would be even better.  I suspect that won't happen.  In 2010, the Dem money will be pumped into Ohio, NH, NC, and, should Jeb opt not to run, Florida.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: John Sharp declares bid for Texan Seat on: December 13, 2008, 01:18:46 pm
Mayor White said he will run according to this morning's Chronicle.  Therefore, Sharp doesn't even have a clear path amongst Democrats.

Kay Baily has hinted that she will resign late next year allowing Perry to appoint a Republican.  That gives the incumbent Republican the poll position for any special election.  Very uphill for any Democrat to take Kay Baily's seat.

This one stays R.  I might add that we aren't talking a 2012 November presidential election.  No Obama on the ballot to get out the black vote (see the Georgia senatorial runoff three weeks ago).  Even in November with maximum Obama turnout numbers among minorities, Cornyn won his race by 12 points.

I know my state and for the reasons I stated above, this is a race that won't seriously be in question.

17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: John Sharp declares bid for Texan Seat on: December 10, 2008, 12:52:56 pm
He might could reach 47% in a two man race.  No Obama to bring out the blacks in 2010.  Sharp can't even have Obama campaign for him as that would cut into the white vote he absolutely needs.  Can't have your cake and eat it too.

Moderate?  Tie him to padding Harry Reid's majority in congress which will show it's colors over the next two years.  It won't wash in Texas, but keep telling yourself that Democrats will gain the seat.  Cornyn got 55% of the vote for reelection and that was a year with Obama bringing out record minority support.  Won't have that in 2010.

Next.


18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA-2 results on: December 07, 2008, 10:30:14 am
Actually, this is excellent news for Dems

*one vote won't make any difference in the congress

*got rid of a party eyesore

*the seat will easily be won back in two years

Doubt Pelosi was in the least sorry to see this guy gone.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Top Republican Senate targets in 2010? on: December 06, 2008, 03:43:11 pm
I agree with what was said above.

Nevada

Nevada

Nevada

Reid has problems.  As far as other GOP possibilities.  There aren't any.  Period.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MN Sen Recount Results on: December 05, 2008, 04:33:32 pm
My understanding is that the 10 ballots found today are overseas military ballots.  Just a hunch, but if those ballots are included (and I have no idea if the canvasing board would include them) I'm pretty sure they won't help Franken.  Like I said, just a hunch.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MN Sen Recount Results on: December 05, 2008, 01:30:20 pm
Thank God the recount is finally 100% completed. 

Expect a news conference by Franken's lawyers within the hour announcing that Franken has finished  in the lead.  I feel sure they will announce that the lead is - -- exactly 27 votes.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MN Sen Recount Results on: December 04, 2008, 10:04:43 pm
Actually, Franken is up more than 10.  I believe the number is 27 and that number is solid.  Nate Silver said so.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MN Sen Recount Results on: December 04, 2008, 09:47:49 pm
The Franken campaign says he is up 10 votes.

Uh, yeah.  Sure he is.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Florida GOP Primary: Mack vs. Bush? on: December 03, 2008, 07:23:48 pm
I can't see him running if Jeb runs.  A big if I still believe.

25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MN Sen Recount Results on: December 03, 2008, 04:06:19 pm
I assume Franken's claims are posturing for the coming review of ballots and court challenge.

More campaign BS of which we've already had enough on both sides.
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