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October 21, 2014, 02:12:34 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: how much is your cable package a month? on: Today at 12:40:49 am
20€ for cable internet, 15€ for cable TV and 25€ in mandatory public broadcasting fees.

60€ alltogether (ca. 75$)
2  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: What is the greatest threat to the world? on: October 20, 2014, 12:53:01 pm
Overpopulation/massive world population growth, religion and a lack of education.

These lead to ca. 95% of all the problems on the planet.
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Angola releases first Population Census figures in 44 years on: October 20, 2014, 12:45:44 pm
And it's much higher than estimated:

1970 Census:   5,646,166 people
2014 Census: 24,383,301 people

That's an annual growth rate of 3.4% between 1970-2014 !!!

http://www.macauhub.com.mo/en/2014/10/16/angola-has-a-population-of-24-3-million-people

http://www.citypopulation.de/Angola.html

It should also be noted that the 2014 Census had a very competent organisation and the public participated with almost 100% (there were a lot of ad campaigns before the census field period).

Still, Africa is a ticking population time bomb.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cohn (NYT): Early Voting Offers No Proof That Dems Have Improved Turnout Effort on: October 20, 2014, 12:23:16 pm
Cohn is wrong.

As I have said in the other thread, besides IA and FL, the current absentee numbers are simply too small to draw any conclusions.

Only in IA and FL, more than 10% of the expected vote have already been returned.

And why is he talking about NV and OH ? These states are of no importance in this election.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / FL: Rassy says it's tied on: October 20, 2014, 12:09:42 pm
47-47-2-4 Crist/Scott/Others/Undecided

The survey of 1,114 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on October 15-17, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Latino Decisions/NCLRAF: Udall wallops Gardner among Latinos on: October 20, 2014, 11:51:06 am
PPP should have CO numbers today or tomorrow. 'Would like to see if they match this.

Yepp.

But the question is if the Latinos are also showing up to vote. If they don't, this margin is useless.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / CO-Latino Decisions/NCLRAF: Udall wallops Gardner among Latinos on: October 20, 2014, 11:47:47 am
66-17 Udall



http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2014/10/15/new-nclrafld-poll-in-colorado-udall-leads-gardner-55-14-among-latinos

There's also a NC Latino poll, but I guess it's not so important since NC is more of a Black state and not a Latino state like CO.
8  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Winter is coming ! on: October 20, 2014, 09:53:46 am
Wed/Thu and Fri here.

Temps will be down from 18-25°C (64-77°F) right now to -5 to +5°C (23-41°F).

Some areas to get 50cm (1-2 feet) of fresh snow, glaciers will get 100-150cm (3-5 feet).

Ironically, the mandatory winter-tire rule in Austria only starts on November 1 - but it virtually always snows in October already for the first time.

And then there's the people on the streets with their summer tires who drive no more than 20 mph and block the whole traffic.

I changed my tires yesterday already ( => reads the weather report).
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics on: October 20, 2014, 09:33:08 am
The good news for Democrats is that, while they've returned about 50% more absentee ballots than this time in 2010, Republicans are slightly below where they were four years ago.

This is all so meaningless at this stage.

There are now just 15.000 ballots returned in NC and just 70.000 requested.

The 2010 vote was 2.7 million, which means only 0.5% of the vote is returned right now and only 2.5% requested.

In IA, a lot more is already in and requested.

Tells us more.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics on: October 20, 2014, 09:28:12 am
Democrats have a 33-vote lead in returned absentee votes. This is probably the last day they lead in the absentee vote.

In NC, yeah.

But in NC there's hardly anything returned yet.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics on: October 20, 2014, 09:19:44 am
Meanwhile in Iowa:

Democrats take back the lead in new daily absentee requests from Republicans:



https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/524196155052556288

Also, more people in IA have now requested absentees than in all of 2010, and there are still 2 weeks to go.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-Gravis: Tillis (R) up 5. on: October 20, 2014, 07:37:52 am
Isn't Hagan in some kind of stimulus-money scandal recently ?
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What do you think will overall turnout be like this year ? on: October 19, 2014, 11:58:16 am
http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/voter-turnout-data
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / What do you think will overall turnout be like this year ? on: October 19, 2014, 11:57:45 am
Previous mid-term turnout:

2010: 89-91 million

2006: 84-86 million

2002: 78-80 million

My prediction:

A little bit lower than the previous 2 midterm, so ca. 82-84 million overall.

(The voter enthusiasm is very low right now, compared with 2010 and 2006).
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you think the letter on the left side of this "Krone" page is racist ? on: October 19, 2014, 11:37:21 am
The Allies made a big mistake in excluding Austria from the Denazification process.

It was not excluded.

And B) what does it have to do with the newspaper letter ?
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Bulgaria elections - 5 October 2014 on: October 19, 2014, 11:35:39 am
Is that "GERB/BSP" tie in your city-map a tie in votes or a rough tie in percentages ?

Because the fact that GERB an BSP are tied in so many cities would be kinda fishy, considering Austria for example has 2400 cities and there are hardly any ties, not even to mention ties between the same parties.
It's an exact tie. But what do you mean under many ties? There is only one tie, in Pordim in the central north, marked in a light purple color.
By the way, you can't really compare Bulgarian municipalities with Austrian ones - they tend to be much bigger and include multiple settlements (though usually only one town), so one can't really call them cities either. There are only 264 of them, while there are about five thousand settlements.

Sry, my fault.

I thought the ">40% GERB-shade" is the "tie", but it's the other one.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Benenson (D): Also Udall +3 on: October 19, 2014, 11:31:43 am
2 weeks away from the election and virtually no new polls this weekend, except a few internals.

The quantity of polls this cycle must be the worst I have ever seen since at least 2004.

More evidence that phone polls are soon dead and we have to get used to Internet polling.
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Do you think this FORUM ... on: October 19, 2014, 07:31:30 am
No, because I'm pessimistic and from what I remember it already crashed during (or even before) the 2008, 2010 and 2012 election nights and was not visible for the whole night (or it took ca. 1 hour to log in or post something).

Do you think it will be better this time ?

Wink
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Bulgaria elections - 5 October 2014 on: October 19, 2014, 07:20:11 am
Is that "GERB/BSP" tie in your city-map a tie in votes or a rough tie in percentages ?

Because the fact that GERB an BSP are tied in so many cities would be kinda fishy, considering Austria for example has 2400 cities and there are hardly any ties, not even to mention ties between the same parties.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Did you like going through a car wash as a kid? on: October 19, 2014, 05:42:04 am
Why is it so expensive? If you're just going through a car wash to wash the exterior and aren't doing anything to the interior, there's virtually no labor involved - the whole thing is automated. (Unless Europe is years behind the US in car wash technology.)

When I lived in Waco, there was a place where you could drive the car through the wash yourself and have the option to vacuum the inside yourself, all for $2.

The Germans (presumably including the Austrians, given TB's post) have huge, super-complex car washes that clean their cars to an anal level of detail. A cultural thing.

That could be one reason yeah, because Germans and Austrians typically love their cars and a lot of them like to wash it every week or two and like them shiny.

The reason why the car wash is expensive at the gas stations is also because it involves pre-cleaning, then fine-cleaning, then underbody-cleaning from salt and everything, then a new layer of wax, then a 2nd layer of TOP-wax, then the whole car gets dried with a huge    hair-dryer-like thing. Takes ca. 5-10 minutes for the most expensive option.

PS: I put my winter tires on today and will drive to the car wash in the afternoon ... Tongue
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who wins Colorado? on: October 18, 2014, 11:07:05 am
Too early to say.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: What Network will you watch Election Night? on: October 18, 2014, 11:05:50 am
CNN, because that's the only thing I have over here.

I have BBC, Bloomberg and AlJazeera too, but I don't think they show it (nor would I watch it).

Plus, CNN isn't too bad really.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Mellman (D): Udall+3 in internal on: October 18, 2014, 10:52:02 am
League of Conservation Voters (LCV) launches $1.6 million grassroots field campaign to re-elect Colorado Senator Mark Udall

Quote
WASHINGTON – The League of Conservation Voters (LCV) today announced the launch of a $1.6 million grassroots field campaign to re-elect Colorado Senator Mark Udall to the United States Senate.

The program will target drop-off voters in Denver and Jefferson County, and will knock on at least 268,400 doors by Election Day.


“Colorado experienced damaging extreme weather events over the past several years, so it can’t afford to have climate science denier Cory Gardner in the Senate. Our door to door campaign will ensure that voters know that Mark Udall will act on climate change to reduce the threat posed by future storms, floods, drought and wildfire,” said Daniel J. Weiss, LCV Senior Vice President for Campaigns. “Senator Udall will ignore corporate polluters and the oil billionaire Koch Brothers, while Gardner will be their lap dog.”

The field program will target likely Udall supporters who voted in the 2012 Presidential election but did not vote in the 2010 midterm election. It will communicate with registered Democrats and Independents with a vote propensity of 30-100 who voted in either the 2010 or 2012 election, and registered Democrats with a vote propensity of 15-80 who voted in the 2010 election.

LCV Action Fund, which works to elect candidates who will implement sound environmental policies, endorsed Senator Udall for re-election in June, citing his tireless work to protect our environment, combat climate change, and move our nation towards a clean energy economy. Senator Udall’s voting record earned him an impressive 97% lifetime score on LCV’s National Environmental Scorecard, while his opponent, Congressman Cory Gardner, has a horrible 9% lifetime score.  

http://www.lcv.org/media/press-releases/LCV-Launches-1-6-Million-Field-Program-to-Re-Elect-Mark-Udall.html
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / CO-Mellman (D): Udall+3 in internal on: October 18, 2014, 10:43:44 am
44-41 Udall

This analysis represents the findings of a survey of 800 voters representing the likely 2014 general electorate in Colorado, who were interviewed by telephone October 13-15, 2014. The study was conducted by live interviewers who contacted both cell phones and land lines. The survey utilized a registration-based sample which models the likely electorate.

38% of the sample was made up of registered Republicans, 32.5% registered Democrats and 29.5% unaffiliated or members of other parties. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points at a 95% level of confidence. The margin of error is higher for subgroups.

Link
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: October 18, 2014, 08:22:31 am
The state government of Salzburg (where I live) has presented a balanced budget for 2015.

Also, the state debt (2.1 Bio. €) is projected to decline to 1.9 Bio. € at the end of next year.

That means the budget and also the debt is now back to "pre-financial/investment-scandal" levels.

Salzburg state was hit by a financial/investment-scandal in late-2012 that led to heavy losses of the SPÖ and ÖVP in the 2013 state election. SPÖ and ÖVP-officials were mostly equally responsible, but the voters punished the SPÖ most (they were the senior coalition partner at that time).

The new ÖVP-Green-Team Stronach government has now promised to set up a new accounting system (which they did), get rid of all speculation/trading with state money (they got rid of 99% of them by now), only present balanced budgets from now on and lower the state debt to 1.7 Bio. € by 2018 (when their term is over).
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