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February 01, 2015, 02:41:23 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Four years from today, who will be.....? on: Today at 11:16:03 am
...president of France? Marine le Pen

...president of France? Marine Le Pen

Marine LePen will never be elected President of France.

N.E.V.E.R
2  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Four years from today, who will be.....? on: Today at 11:06:50 am
...chancellor of Austria? Reinhold Mitterlehner or Sebastian Kurz
...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel or someone else from the CDU
...president of France? Alain Juppé
...prime minister of the UK? David Cameron will be re-elected
...prime minister of Canada? Stephen Harper will be re-elected
...prime minister of Australia? Tony Abbott will be re-elected
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: IA-Selzer: Walker leads on: Today at 04:56:13 am
I expected Walker to surge eventually, but not this soon...
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: Today at 04:22:33 am
My results from the Hamburg "Wahl-o-mat":

78.6% New Liberals
75.5% Party for Retired People
74.5% ÖDP
66.3% Pirates
66.3% Left
64.3% Greens
63.3% HHBL
62.2% SPD
62.2% The Party
56.1% CDU
52.0% FDP
49.0% AfD
35.7% NPD

https://www.wahl-o-mat.de/hamburg2015
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What will they even attack Walker on? on: Today at 02:41:33 am
What about him never graduating college?

I don't think that's a problem. You don't need to have a college education to be a good President.

What's more of a problem for Walker is the fact that he seems to peak too early. He's already ahead in Iowa, according to a Selzer poll today.

I don't see how he can maintain this momentum for another year, without being attacked by other candidates.

I also do not understand why this primary process already starts now. The candidates should better wait until October/November, then the GOP should set 2-3 debates and start the whole thing. But not 2 years before the actual election.
6  General Politics / Economics / Re: US economy up by 2.4% in 2014, up by 2.5% in the final quarter on: January 31, 2015, 10:38:54 am
Austria's GDP only went up by 0.3% in 2014, the WIFO said yesterday.

In the 2nd half of 2014, the economy even stagnated with 0% "growth" in both quarters.

2015 will probably be not much better, but if the government passes the tax-reform and tax-cut package in March, the economy might be back on a good footing starting in 2016 (the tax reform package would start Jan. 1, 2016).

...

Germany's GDP went up by 1.5% last year and Spain is also back in the growth zone (+1.4%)
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / IA-Loras College: Hillary drops below 50% for first time on: January 31, 2015, 08:59:17 am
Field Dates: January 21-26, 2015
Completed Surveys: 1200
Margin of Error (for full sample): +/- 2.82%

48.3% Hillary Clinton
16.5% Elizabeth Warren
12.6% Joe Biden
  3.8% Bernie Sanders
  2.3% Jim Webb
  0.4% Martin O'Malley
16.1% Undecided

Methodology: The Loras College Poll surveyed 1,200 registered voters. Statewide results with full sample have a +/- 2.82 percent margin of error. The subsample of likely Republican caucus participants is 316, with a +/- 5.5 percent margin of error. The subsample of likely Democratic caucus participants is 261, with a +/- 6.06 percent margin of error. All results calculated at a 95 percent confidence interval. Both subsamples of party caucus-goers include no-party registrants who self-indicate likely participation in the 2016 party caucuses.

http://loras.edu/LorasCollege/files/d6/d69775e6-870f-465d-98fa-370cba8097b6.pdf
8  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Today, the 2015 Far-Right "academics/fraternity" ball takes place in Vienna on: January 30, 2015, 03:42:26 pm
The police has a lot to do:

* clear the streets from the "sit-in" crowd, who chant: "The police protects the fascists !"
* protect the taxis
* neutralize the Black Block people by using dogs
* make sure the security perimeter remains tight and is not penetrated











9  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Today, the 2015 Far-Right "academics/fraternity" ball takes place in Vienna on: January 30, 2015, 03:27:04 pm
The tons of left-wingers encircle taxis with FPÖ-ball attendees inside and slit open the tires of the taxis, crush the windows of the cars, push the car back and forth and shout: "NAZIS out !"



The people in the taxis are quite scared (incl. the poor taxi drivers).
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Today, the 2015 Far-Right "academics/fraternity" ball takes place in Vienna on: January 30, 2015, 03:12:03 pm
So far, so good.

About 10.000 demonstrators and a big concert with Holocaust-survivors in front of the Hofburg.

The FPÖ-ball starts now, and the more militant left-wingers are now trying to block the taxis from getting to the Hofburg (most of them are already in there for hours though).

Some damages and attacks on police reported, but no water cannon or tear gas use so far.

Could get worse though later on.





11  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Today, the 2015 Far-Right "academics/fraternity" ball takes place in Vienna on: January 30, 2015, 11:04:48 am
From the standard.at live-ticker:

About 2000 people will attend the FPÖ-ball tonight, much more than last year.

No members of the LePen family will come this year.

The police has stopped and searched buses full of German and Czech anti-fa people at the Vienna city border, confiscated weapons and urged them "to drive home again".
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What are you listening to right now? II on: January 30, 2015, 10:58:29 am


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TW9uj83Vq-0

13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: PPP Prim-R: National: Romney 21, Bush 17, Carson 15, Walker 11, Cruz/Huckabee 9 on: January 30, 2015, 10:36:22 am
Carson and Walker seem to be the ones to watch over the next months.

Bush and Romney it seems are already fading and maybe only their money can keep them in the race for 1st.
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Today, the 2015 Far-Right "academics/fraternity" ball takes place in Vienna on: January 30, 2015, 10:18:28 am
If you want to follow the news on the radio, you can do so @ FM4 - a popular English-speaking/moderated alternative/indie radio channel from the Austrian public broadcaster.

http://radio.orf.at/player/radioplayer.html?station=fm4&width=328&height=466
15  General Politics / Economics / Re: US economy up by 2.4% in 2014, up by 2.5% in the final quarter on: January 30, 2015, 10:05:50 am
That means the UK beat out the US last year.

The UK had a 2.6% growth rate last year.
16  General Politics / Economics / US economy up by 2.4% in 2014, up by 2.5% in the final quarter on: January 30, 2015, 10:01:54 am
Tables 7 & 8:

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2015/txt/gdp4q14_adv.txt

The growth rate in 2014 was 2.4% for the full year.

In 2013 it was 2.2%
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: January 30, 2015, 09:48:12 am
So, with 30.000-40.000 asylum seekers coming to Austria this year (compared with only 90.000 in the US, which is 37x bigger than Austria) and the living quarters for these people extremely hard to find in Austrian communities, the Interior Minister Johanna Mikl-Leitner (ÖVP) has now presented plans to fast-track asylum requests for asylum seekers of safe countries of origin (such as Kosovo, Serbia, Montenegro etc.)

Under the new plan, if some person from let's say Kosovo files for asylum in Austria, the fast-track system will process the request within only 10 days and refuse it. The person will have to leave the country again.

Last year, 3.000 asylum seekers came from these safe countries (mostly from Kosovo). You need to know that in Kosovo unemployment is ca. 40% and bus organisations there organize bus travels to Austria for 50€ and these companies tell the people that if they apply for asylum in Austria they will get 600€ a month.

These economic asylum seekers are a real pain in the ass, that's why the new plans were presented a few days ago. Chancellor Faymann (SPÖ) supports these plans. Me too.

I have no problems with a decent number of asylum seekers coming to Austria each year, but I have a problem with certain recent excesses:

* Only young men coming from Syria, Iraq, AfPak and Eritrea/Somalia - while women and children stay behind in these crappy places while the men get a "luxury lifestyle" here

* Economic asylum seekers that are only coming because they are unemployed and not because they are of a war area

* The large number in general: I have no problem with 10.000 asylum seekers a year, but 30.000-40.000 is definitely too high, while other countries such as France, Spain, Portugal, Poland, Czech Rep. etc. are doing absolutely nothing in terms of taking up asylum seekers.

http://derstandard.at/2000010876961/Die-Asylplaene-der-Innenministerin-im-Detail
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Today, the 2015 Far-Right "academics/fraternity" ball takes place in Vienna on: January 30, 2015, 09:13:47 am
In 50 minutes, the security perimeter zone around the Hofburg will be "activated" by the police (see map above).

The left-wing protesters will still try to penetrate it somewhere, because it's rather big (like Cranberry already mentioned).

I'll keep you up-to-date if something "interesting" happens later tonight.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: January 30, 2015, 09:04:40 am
Definitely better than a Swedish village surrounded by snow. Cheesy

?

It dumped 50cm of snow here in the past days and even in and around Salzburg City (which usually gets almost no snow) it got some 20-30cm.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: January 29, 2015, 01:17:47 pm
New Hamburg poll (Infratest dimap for NDR):

44% SPD
20% CDU
13% Greens
  9% Left
  6% AfD
  5% FDP
  3% Others

SPD loses absolute majority. AfD in, FDP back in too (after polling on a low level before).

http://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/hamburg/Zweiter-HamburgTREND-im-Januar-2015,hhwahlumfrage104.html
21  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Opinion of these Austrian SuperBowl intro videos ? on: January 29, 2015, 11:46:15 am
An Austrian TV Network Went Full Terminator in This (Amazing) Super Bowl Promo



Quote
Look alive, NBC, the gauntlet for Super Bowl intro packages has officially been thrown down. And based on the heat that Austria’s big game broadcaster is coming to the plate with, all the Idina Menzel audio in the world can’t save you. The promo above comes courtesy of the Austrian network PULS 4—owner of the country’s broadcast rights to Super Bowl XLIX—and appears to be the montage that will roll prekickoff. It’s also amazing. And Terminator-themed
.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2015/01/28/austrian_tv_super_bowl_promo_puls_4_terminator_opener_video.html

Click on the link for the video.

Plus last year's intro (Game of Thrones-style):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4XLjr6oqBk

What do you think ?

Comparable with US intros ? Worse ? Better ?
22  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Which European Social Democratic party is the most pathetic? on: January 29, 2015, 11:23:31 am
A couple examples why the SPÖ can sometimes be classified as a joke party:

* A Carinthian SPÖ politician recently called for prostitutes to be excluded from the voter lists, because "they have no clue what these elections are all about". Funnily, the ÖVP mayor of the town where the brothel (Carinthia's biggest, btw) was located strongly defended the prostitutes' voting rights (and of course they will be allowed to vote in March).

* The Salzburg state SPÖ-leader, who earns 4000€ a month (14 times a year), once said that "this is not enough and I can't live with only 4000€ a month" and that he wants 7000€ a month. The average income/pension of the SPÖ-voter (mostly retired people) is something like 900-1500€ a month.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: January 29, 2015, 10:45:51 am
More than 100 Syrian asylum seekers (mostly young men) to be housed in a luxury hotel near Salzburg City, which once housed US-President Nixon when we was here for a state visit:

http://www.news.at/a/salzburg-luxushotel-asylzentrum

Yay, that's exactly what the average Austrian taxpayer always wanted.

Wink
24  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: PEGIDA virtually went into self-desctruct mode today on: January 29, 2015, 10:28:42 am
Maybe Lutz Bachmann can now start a new career as a movie actor at a film academy in Vienna.

He's actually not too bad of a Hitler-double, if you look at the pictures.

His haircut is a bit too emo for my taste, but maybe he can visit a hairdresser who can get him einen EXAKT GERADLINIGEN, DEUTSCHEN HAAAARRRSCHNITT !
25  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: PEGIDA virtually went into self-desctruct mode today on: January 29, 2015, 10:16:34 am
There's now also a group protesting called PEGADA (also in East Germany):

Quote
Americans Urged to 'Go Home' at Protest in Erfurt, Germany

MAINZ, Germany - Demonstrators called for Americans to go home at a protest in the eastern Germany city of Erfurt on Saturday, police said.

A group calling itself PEGADA - short for 'Patriotic Europeans Against the Americanization of the Occident' and also ENDGAME, which stands for 'Engaged Democrats Against the Americanization of Europe', called its protest a success on its social media platforms.

Some in the diverse crowd of up to 1,000 were carrying Russian and Israeli flags, while a small group chanted "love each other," according to Erfurt police spokesman Dominique Schuh.

"This was not a homogenous group," Schuh told NBC News. "There were people demonstrating for vegan lifestyle, some protested against war in Ukraine and others called for Americans to go home."

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/americans-urged-go-home-protest-erfurt-germany-n293731

It seems the Eastern Germans are just "anti everything" ... Tongue
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