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1  General Politics / Economics / Re: Fitch Ratings has downgraded Austria on: Today at 04:00:45 am
The news that the government will not use further taxpayer money for the bad-bank and to bail in creditors does not have any effect on federal government bonds though.

They are still around 0.43 for the 10-year bonds (6th lowest in the world).

http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/government-bond-spreads

Which means that the HYPO/HETA decisions are bad in the long run for the reputation of state guarantees (such as Carinthia's), but not for the Austrian bond market itself.
2  General Politics / Economics / Re: Fitch Ratings has downgraded Austria on: Today at 02:59:05 am
More sh!t on the way (and ironically, the bad news was released just 1 day after the Carinthia elections, where the HYPO-debacle originated):

Quote
Creditors Face Losses as Austria Halts Hypo Alpe Support

(Bloomberg) -- Hypo Alpe-Adria-Bank International AG bondholders face losses after the Austrian government ruled out providing fresh capital for its bad bank and staged a premiere of new European Union rules to wind down failing banks.

After 5.5 billion euros ($6.2 billion) of taxpayer money was injected into Hypo Alpe in the last five years, Chancellor Werner Faymanns administration decided to stop supporting its bad bank, Heta Asset Resolution AG, after learning it would need another 7.6 billion euros. The shortfall will now be met by forcing losses on creditors using tools created by the EUs Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive.

It seems very clear that the Austrian government is now proceeding along the lines of the BRRD philosophy, Gunnar Hoekmark, the Swedish lawmaker who led work on the bill in the European Parliament, said by telephone. Its an extremely important message to the market that this is the way we will deal with things.

(...)

Asset Review

Hetas review showed that its assets need to be written down by 5.1 billion euros to 8.7 billion euros, the FMA said in its decree. Considering Hetas own funds of 1.1 billion euros, that results in a shortfall of as much as 7.6 billion euros.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-01/austria-on-track-to-bail-in-heta-creditors-after-aid-stop

...

If the additional 7.6 Bio. are deficit-effective (and they most likely will be), Austria will have a budget-deficit of ca. 3.3% for 2014.

This will be a massive pain in the ass for the next years to come ...

Thanks Jrg (Haider) !
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Who is the highest ranking political figure(s) that you have shaken hands with? on: Today at 02:30:37 am
Austrian President Heinz Fischer (SP), when he was not President yet. He was then speaker of the Parliament.

I think I was 13 then and in Vienna with my class for a Parliament tour.

I also met former Salzburg Governor Gabriele Burgstaller (also SP) at a podium discussion once (when I was 15 or 16).
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: Today at 02:22:45 am
Carinthia mayoral elections 2015:



Red = SP candidate won in 1st round already
Black = VP candidate won in 1st round already
Blue = FP candidate won in 1st round already
Yellow = Indy candidate won in 1st round already
White = runoff on March 15
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton Used Personal Email at State Dept., Possibly Breaking Rules on: Today at 02:19:21 am
Big smurfing deal !
6  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Hot or not: Lily Allen on: March 02, 2015, 04:02:04 am
Not really "hot", but good looking.

I certainly wouldn't push her off the bed.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: March 02, 2015, 02:36:48 am
Carinthia results map (town council elections) by party:

Red = SP
Black = VP
Blue = FP
Teal = Indy lists

8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: March 02, 2015, 02:23:56 am
Also:

Out of the 132 towns/cities in Carinthia, the SP won 44 mayors yesterday. The VP 23, the FP 14 and Independents 12.

In 39 towns/cities a runoff will be held in 2 weeks.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: March 02, 2015, 02:17:24 am
Klagenfurt (capital) and biggest city with 100K people:

* FP-mayor Scheider on track to win the 1st round with some 33%, ahead of the SP-candidate at around 30%. Both will advance to the run-off in 2 weeks.

Who do you think will win the runoff?

It's going to be really close.

Let's take a look at the final results from Klagenfurt city:

Quote
City council

30.7% SP
24.9% FP
18.8% VP
14.1% Greens
  3.5% NEOS
  3.5% BA/Citizen Alliance
  4.5% Others

Mayor

31.1% Christian Scheider (FP)
30.1% Maria-Luise Mathiaschitz-Tschabuschnig (SP)
19.7% Otto Umlauft (VP)
  8.7% Gnther Frank Frey (Greens)
  4.7% Albert Gunzer (BA/Citizen Alliance)
  5.7% Others
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: March 01, 2015, 02:20:11 pm
Final Carinthia result:

40.2% SP (+3.6%)
22.5% VP (+2.1%)
18.0% FP (-15.1% => as BZ09+FP09)
  5.6% Greens (+2.3%)
13.7% Others/Indy lists (+7.1%)

http://www.ktn.gv.at/grwahl2015
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: March 01, 2015, 12:56:14 pm
The count is almost done and the SP might actually top 40% statewide after all.

The SP won a huge victory in Villach (the 2nd biggest city), getting back the absolute majority there in the city council and their new mayoral candidate almost 60%.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: March 01, 2015, 12:24:29 pm
Klagenfurt (capital) and biggest city with 100K people:

* FP-mayor Scheider on track to win the 1st round with some 33%, ahead of the SP-candidate at around 30%. Both will advance to the run-off in 2 weeks.

* SP will be biggest party in the city council though with 35% and the FP at 25%.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: March 01, 2015, 12:18:06 pm
ALBECK:

50.07% Anna Zarre (VP)
49.93% Siegfried Unterweger (FP)

Zarre elected mayor by 1 vote.

http://orf.at/wahl/kaernten-gemeinderat15/#ergebnisse/21001
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: March 01, 2015, 11:53:44 am
Carinthia wouldn't be Carinthia without this story:

* The FP-mayor in the town called Gurk (some almost 80-year old guy) was recently kicked out of the state/federal FP (the expulsion came directly from FP-leader Strache) for saying "I do only distance myself from what they [=> the Nazis] did, not from National Socialism itself".

* After the expulsion, the town-FP reinstated him though as their mayoral candidate and he might as well be re-elected tomorrow.

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/fpoe-schliesst-siegfried-kampl-aus-partei-aus/86.349.593

Quote
Aufmerksam werden viele auch nach Gurk blicken, wo der 78-jhrige, wegen seiner Aussagen zum NS-Regime umstrittene Brgermeister Siegfried Kampl wieder fr die lokale FP antritt. Und das, obwohl ihn die Landespartei Ende 2014 ausschloss. Er hatte in einem Interview mit der "Kleinen Zeitung" gemeint, er distanziere sich nicht vom Nationalsozialismus, "nur von dem, was sie gemacht haben".

http://derstandard.at/2000012268436/Kaerntner-Wahl-mit-Tennislehrer-und-Faschingsstar

UPDATE:

Mayor Kampl (FP) re-elected with 58.43% and the FP strongest party in the city council with 45.20%

Turnout: 89.62%

http://orf.at/wahl/kaernten-gemeinderat15/#ergebnisse/20508
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: March 01, 2015, 11:46:01 am
First trends from Carinthia, based on the already counted small cities:

* SP gains slightly, but will probably remain below 40% statewide
* FP as expected drops by a lot from their 2009-BZ-share, but will likely remain above 20%
* VP gains slightly, will get some 25% statewide
* Greens are expected to double their share, but from a low level
* Others/Indy lists are gaining by quite a bit

Turnout is not really bad in the already counted small towns (80-90%), but the bigger cities matter more and they will have lower turnout.

Map of already counted towns:

http://orf.at/wahl/kaernten-gemeinderat15/#analysis

Turnout:

http://orf.at/wahl/kaernten-gemeinderat15/#analysis/turnout
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: March 01, 2015, 03:43:10 am
Carinthia results after 5pm here:

CITY COUNCIL elections

http://www.ktn.gv.at/grwahl2015

MAYORAL elections

http://www.ktn.gv.at/bgmwahl2015

A separate ORF-page should have maps too.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Republican Nomination Poll - March 2015 on: March 01, 2015, 03:10:19 am
Walker (for now)

He could still screw it up though, 10 months is a long time.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will Hillary Become 'Mommy President' to Millennials? on: March 01, 2015, 02:55:57 am
A Rabenmutter maybe.

Or in US terms: A "Hawk Mommy".
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CPAC straw poll: Paul 26% Walker 21% Cruz 12% Carson 11% Bush 8% Santorum 4% on: March 01, 2015, 02:33:30 am
I've read that more than half of the voters were between 18-25 years old.

Which means this is a really good result for Walker, considering his support his much stronger with the olds.
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: What Are the Best European News Sources? on: February 28, 2015, 01:53:57 pm
For Austria, the best sites are:

Public broadcaster

* http://orf.at

Major newspapers

* http://derstandard.at
* http://diepresse.com
* http://kurier.at
* http://wienerzeitung.at

Tabloids

* http://krone.at
* http://oe24.at
* http://heute.at
21  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: What Are the Best European News Sources? on: February 28, 2015, 01:48:22 pm
TheLocal is also good (for English news about various countries).

Just type in:

www.thelocal

and then either:

.at
.de
.ch
.se
.dk
.no
.fr
.es
.it
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: February 28, 2015, 12:46:41 pm
Carinthia wouldn't be Carinthia without this story:

* The FP-mayor in the town called Gurk (some almost 80-year old guy) was recently kicked out of the state/federal FP (the expulsion came directly from FP-leader Strache) for saying "I do only distance myself from what they [=> the Nazis] did, not from National Socialism itself".

* After the expulsion, the town-FP reinstated him though as their mayoral candidate and he might as well be re-elected tomorrow.

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/fpoe-schliesst-siegfried-kampl-aus-partei-aus/86.349.593

Quote
Aufmerksam werden viele auch nach Gurk blicken, wo der 78-jhrige, wegen seiner Aussagen zum NS-Regime umstrittene Brgermeister Siegfried Kampl wieder fr die lokale FP antritt. Und das, obwohl ihn die Landespartei Ende 2014 ausschloss. Er hatte in einem Interview mit der "Kleinen Zeitung" gemeint, er distanziere sich nicht vom Nationalsozialismus, "nur von dem, was sie gemacht haben".

http://derstandard.at/2000012268436/Kaerntner-Wahl-mit-Tennislehrer-und-Faschingsstar
23  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: RIP Leonard Nimoy on: February 27, 2015, 12:37:08 pm
One of the greatest has passed.

This is how I feel right now:



Sad
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: February 27, 2015, 11:03:08 am
Municipal elections in Carinthia on Sunday.

This will be the first real post-Jrg Haider municipal election.

I expect something like this statewide:

40% SP
23% FP
23% VP
  7% Greens
  7% Others/Indies

Also interesting apart from the statewide result:

The Klagenfurt city council and mayoral election. The FP-mayor almost definitely has to go into a runoff.

Turnout should drop back to around 70-72%, after reaching a high in the 2009 "Jrg Haider remembrance vote".

Carinthia (March 1)

2009 results (held on the same date as the "Jrg Haider remembrance vote" = 2009 state election):

36.7% SP
33.1% FP
20.4% VP
  3.3% Greens
  6.6% Others/Indies

Turnout: 80.6%
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Battle of the Moderators Round 3: Return of the Mikado on: February 26, 2015, 12:27:37 pm
Looks like the smear campaigns ("you lock up people, especially DAVE, in basements), mobbing ("you are the KRAMPUS") and misinformation ("Google-Gate") against me apparently did their work.
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