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February 14, 2016, 12:58:47 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: January 2016 Fundraising Megathread on: February 13, 2016, 12:33:53 pm
Sanders raised 3 Mio. $+ in the first 24 hours after Iowa and 7 Mio. $ right after NH.

Good money for the expensive Super Tuesday markets.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NH primaries: Most crossover write-in votes for Sanders/Trump on: February 13, 2016, 12:20:02 pm
Sanders also got more votes in the GOP primary than Rand Paul ...
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / NH primaries: Most crossover write-in votes for Sanders/Trump on: February 13, 2016, 12:18:48 pm
Don't know if this has been posted yet, but in the GOP primary Bernie Sanders received 2.095 write-in votes to Hillary Clinton's 540.

In the DEM primary, Trump got 1.795 write-in votes followed by Kasich (438) and Bush (263).

It also means Bernie received 0.7% of the vote in the GOP primary and Hillary 0.2%

Trump received 0.7% in the DEM primary.

http://sos.nh.gov/2016RepPresPrim.aspx?id=8589955178

http://sos.nh.gov/2016DemPresPrim.aspx?id=8589955148
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24) on: February 13, 2016, 08:05:57 am
The Team Stronach decided to sit out the presidential election and presented no candidate.

http://orf.at/stories/2324353

In other news, 55% of Austrians support the use of weapons/guns as a last resort to keep (some of) the (illegal) migrants streaming over the Austrian border out.

This is a strange result, because not even the FPÖ's presidential candidate Hofer supports the use of weapons against migrants. Nonetheless, 80% of FPÖ-voters, 60% of ÖVP-voters and 45% of SPÖ-voters support the use of force as a last resort. 86% of Green-voters are opposed.

Quote
Hofer: "Zuerst gilt es, einen Zaun zu bauen, der nicht niedergetrampelt werden kann. Die Diskussion über den Schusswaffengebrauch ist absurd. Denn der ist klar in der allgemeinen Dienstvorschrift geregelt. Ich bin während meiner Bundesheerzeit auch an der Grenze gestanden. Wir hatten den Befehl: Nicht in die Luft schießen – und wenn wir schießen, müssen wir richtig schießen, aber nur, wenn das eigene Leben bedroht ist, und nicht, wenn jemand über die Grenze kommt."

Quote
Hofer: "First, we have to make sure there's a fence which cannot be trampled down. The discussion about the use of guns to stop migrants is absurd. The use of guns is clearly regulated in the comprehensive working regulations of the army. I was stationed at the border too during my conscription time. Our order was: Not to shoot into the air, but if we shoot - we have to do it properly, but only to defend the own life and not if someone comes over the border."

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/grenzschutz-einsatz-waffen-6230832
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24) on: February 12, 2016, 12:20:32 pm
OGM has a new poll about the favorable ratings of Presidential candidates. Richard Lugner (who is a mix of Austria's Trump/Berlusconi even has similar ratings as Trump in the US):



It's unclear though if Lugner, Awadalla and Marschall will be able to collect the 6.000 signatures to be on the ballot.

http://www.ogm.at/2016/02/apaogm-vertrauensindex-bundesraesiodentschafts-kandidatinnen-februar-2016
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would your town vote in Bloomberg v Trump v Clinton on: February 12, 2016, 12:05:15 pm
Zell am See:

2016 Austrian Presidential Election (incl. 3 US candidates)

22% Van der Bellen (Greens)
20% Hofer (FPÖ)
17% Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
16% Griss (Indy)
13% Khol (ÖVP)
  4% Lugner (Indy)
  3% Clinton (Dem, doesn't speak German, but gets some anti-establishment votes)
  3% Trump (GOP, doesn't speak German, but gets some anti-establishment votes)
  2% Bloomberg (Indy, doesn't speak German, but gets some anti-establishment votes)
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NV-TargetPoint Consulting/Washington Free Beacon: Sanders & Clinton tied at 45% on: February 12, 2016, 10:46:20 am
Skeptical of this poll for a few reasons having nothing to do with the top line numbers:

  • Washington Free Bacon is a rightwing advocacy group like Breitbart or Newsmax and has an interest in promoting Sanders; this comes through in the article
  • "But undecided caucusgoers and those who might change their mind say recent scandals involving Clinton make them significantly less likely to support her." So the poll primed voters with questions about "Hillary's recent scandals"

No, if you actually read the toplines of the poll and what I have posted above re: undecided voters you would realize that this is not the case:

A) The horserace questions in the poll were asked before any mention of "Hillary scandals"
B) Even in IA and NH it looks like undecided voters broke strongly for Bernie
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Erica Garner stars in Bernie ad, Harry Belafonte endorses Sanders on: February 12, 2016, 10:43:37 am
Greatest ad I've seen in a while.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NV-Targetpoint Consulting/Washington Free Beacon: Sanders & Clinton tied at 45% on: February 12, 2016, 10:32:37 am
Has anyone else noticed that Bernie seems to get most of the undecideds so far ?

In IA, the polling average was about Hillary+3 and it ended as a tie - suggesting that Bernie got most undecideds.

And in NH, the polling average was also slightly pro-Hillary, with Sanders outperforming the polls.

If there's a polling tie in NV, this is good news for Bernie.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NV - Sanders and Clinton tied at 45% each on: February 12, 2016, 10:23:55 am


Oh no ! Bernie has no appeal among Blaxicasians !
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: OK-Sooner Poll Hillary 44, Bernie 28; Trump 30, Cruz 25, Rubio 21 on: February 12, 2016, 05:24:02 am
Understandable that there are many undecideds on the DEM side.

The mostly conservative OK Dems are likely having a hard time choosing between a Social Democrat like Bernie and a lying, deceiving broad like Hillary ...
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Overtime Politics thread on: February 12, 2016, 05:22:27 am
Looking at the results from the NH counties bordering MA, this looks about right.

Still don't know though if Overtime is a real pollster or not ...
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24) on: February 12, 2016, 04:56:45 am
Ughhh, he's in:



Richard Lugner to run for Austrian President (again)

The 83-year-old construction entrepreneur, millionaire and society figure Richard 'Mortar' Lugner says he is running for president of Austria. He wants to hold the highest office along with his 26-year-old German wife Cathy, a former Playboy Bunny at the Playboy Club in Cologne. For an official nomination Lugner needs to collect 6,000 signatures.

Richard "Mörtel" Lugner (born 11 October 1932) had already run in 1998 for the post of head of state and received nearly 10 percent of the vote. He ended up as the fourth out of five candidates.

For the 2016 presidential election Lugner was thinking of participating again. In late January Lugner had himself promoted in a video for the highest office of the state.

Born in Vienna, Lugner got a licence to work as a building contractor (Baumeisterkonzession) in 1962 and at first specialized in the erection of filling stations and the renovation of old buildings.

His company started to prosper, and he eventually became known to a wider public with the completion, in 1979, of Vienna's first mosque, situated on the banks of the river Danube.

In 1990 he opened his own shopping mall, Lugner City, in a working class district of Vienna and, from the start, aggressively advertised his business by regularly inviting celebrities—starting with Thomas Gottschalk—who would perform there and sign autographs—a marketing strategy not very common in a city that, back then, hardly had any shopping malls.

(story continues)

https://www.friedlnews.com/article/richard-lugner-to-run-for-austrian-president

...

Apparently, his decision came after commissioning a private poll from the Humaninstitut which showed him at 10%. Humaninstitut is a terrible pollster though.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: SC Poll Prediction on: February 12, 2016, 04:40:52 am
Trump up 5-10.

56% Hillary
40% Bernie
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update for Everyone III - The Whinge Binge on: February 12, 2016, 04:03:56 am
@ home today because I have the flu.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: February 09, 2016, 08:39:19 pm
Terrible night for our Hillary fetishists.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: February 09, 2016, 02:20:34 pm
Just for fun:

The newspaper derstandard.at has a quiz called "Who said it ? - Sanders, Kreisky or Marx ?"

on the other hand

The newspaper kurier.at has a quiz called "Who said it ? - Lugner* or Trump ?"

*Richard Lugner is a likely Austrian presidential candidate and a mix of Trump and Berlusconi.

Btw, I got between 75-85% in both quizzes.

Wink
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: February 09, 2016, 02:07:37 pm
In Bedford, 2.900 votes were cast until 11am.

2.000 were in the GOP primary and 900 in the DEM primary.

In 2008, Bedford had a total of 6.000 votes cast in the GOP primary and 4.000 in the DEM primary.

...

Better said: In 2008, the GOP primary saw 60% of ballots cast and now it's 69%.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: February 09, 2016, 01:52:32 pm
Gardner's estimate could become true:

According to WMUR and others, turnout is really high statewide so far and many people are newly registering at the polls to vote.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) on: February 09, 2016, 01:35:26 pm
According to SoS Bill Gardner's estimate from a few days ago, 550.000 people will vote today.

That would amount to 62% of NH's registered voters (890K) or 53% of NH's VEP (voting eligible population) of 1.04 million.

Yes, there are 150.000 potential voters in NH who are not registered to vote ...
21  About this Site / The Atlas / Forum slower than before ? on: February 09, 2016, 01:24:42 pm
I think the Forum speed is slower now than before.

Did anyone notice it too ?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24) on: February 09, 2016, 01:20:31 pm
Apparently, the whole Chemtrails-thing from Hofer is just smoke.

He doesn't actually believe in Chemtrails (like previous media reports suggested), he only brought that issue up in parliament because concerned people emailed the FPÖ about it and Hofer wrote an inquiry to the concerned ministries for clarification.

In an interview today, Hofer said:

"I'm no conspiracy theorist. I'm a trained aviation and airplane engine technician and trust me: I know a lot about airplane engines. There are no chemtrails in Austria."

http://derstandard.at/2000030644191-1528/Hofburg-Kandidat-Norbert-Hofer-Faymann-ist-kein-Staatsfreund
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Atlas Predicts NH 2016: 'We know exactly what we're doing' on: February 09, 2016, 09:01:18 am
27% Trump
18% Kasich
14% Bush
12% Cruz
11% Rubio
10% Christie
  4% Fiorina
  3% Carson
  1% Others (big field)

Dems:

57% Sanders
42% Clinton
  1% Others (big field)
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict NH GOP results (post-debate) on: February 07, 2016, 10:58:43 am
27% Trump
18% Kasich
14% Bush
12% Cruz
11% Rubio
10% Christie
  4% Fiorina
  3% Carson
  1% Others (big field)

Dems:

57% Sanders
42% Clinton
  1% Others (big field)
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24) on: February 07, 2016, 09:47:56 am
What are the chances of Kurz being the leader of the ÖVP in the next election?

It really depends on what Kurz's popularity is like in early 2018, or what Mitterlehner's numbers are like. There's a loooong way to go.
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