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June 28, 2016, 06:36:49 am
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1  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: EURO 2016 Thread on: Today at 12:36:58 am
EngLOLand.

I'm rooting for either Iceland or Italy right now, but Germany is also good as usual ...
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP/Americans United for Change: AZ, IA, NH, OH, PA, WI on: Today at 12:34:16 am
Looks about right.
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Santander on: June 26, 2016, 10:54:16 am
Good bank.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC-Washngton Post: Clinton up by 12 on: June 26, 2016, 10:50:25 am
FWIW,

PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
Based on everything we're doing publicly and privately believe NBC/WSJ a lot more than ABC/WP
9:21 AM - 26 Jun 2016

Yepp. There's no credible explanation why Hillary would be up by 12 when she's so unpopular ...

Yeah, none at all. I can't think of any reason why Clinton would have a wide lead in this referendum, in which she has no opponent, certainly not one that is far more unpopular than she is.

Hillary is at 42-54 and Trump at 36-60.

That's not "far" more unpopular. In line with a 6-point national Clinton lead, but certainly not 12 points ...
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC-Washngton Post: Clinton up by 12 on: June 26, 2016, 10:38:39 am
FWIW,

PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
Based on everything we're doing publicly and privately believe NBC/WSJ a lot more than ABC/WP
9:21 AM - 26 Jun 2016

Yepp. There's no credible explanation why Hillary would be up by 12 when she's so unpopular ...
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC-Washngton Post: Clinton up by 12 on: June 26, 2016, 10:24:29 am
This poll is likely an outlier:

It has Obama's approval at 56%, but it's at 51% on the RCP average.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: AR-Hendrix College: Trump +11 on: June 26, 2016, 10:22:27 am
Another sign how far AR has moved to the GOP in the past 20 or so years:

In 2004, Kerry lost it by 10 and he lost by 2 nationally.

Now, Hillary (who was supposed to have a "home state" bonus there) is also down by 11, but ahead by 6 nationally.

So, AR was R+8 in 2004 and R+17 now, even with AR's "favourite daughter" on the ticket ...

Not as bad as in 2008 and 2012 with Obama though ...
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI on: June 26, 2016, 10:16:21 am
It's hard to imagine a world where Clinton is up ~7 points nationally, and up 1 in CO or up only 5 in WI.  And I don't think you can really blame RV/LV split, because from what we've seen from polls that have given us both RV and LV results, there is little-to-no Repub LV advantage this year. 

I know she's not a great fit for CO, but neither is Trump.  We have seen Dems well overperform their polling in CO and NV, so that could be going on.

You guys are forgetting the MoE: Clinton could be leading by 9 in WI right now (which is what Marquette showed). I think she's eventually favoured in CO as well (it usually underpolls for the Dem. candidate). But in general, all these state polls recently match up with a 5-6% national lead ... and not a 12-point lead (like that garbage WaPo poll says).
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: AR-Hendrix College: Trump +11 on: June 26, 2016, 10:12:24 am
Makes sense.

There's probably a trend back from Obama (who did terrible there) to Hillary.

It was R+28 in 2012 and based on current polling it's R+17 ...
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC-Washngton Post: Clinton up by 12 on: June 26, 2016, 09:59:30 am
The primaries are over. You can drop the anti-Hillary charade.

I'm not anti-Hillary here, I'm just posting facts. (I'd also vote for her, for example if I'd live in CO).

No you don't. Polling averages show her ahead by 7, so I don't really know where you get your 5 point "prediction" other than your gut.

Exactly: RCP has her ahead by 5-6% nationally, which makes sense considering the state polls.

But not a 12-point lead ...
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC-Washngton Post: Clinton up by 12 on: June 26, 2016, 09:55:33 am
The primaries are over. You can drop the anti-Hillary charade.

I'm not anti-Hillary here, I'm just posting facts. (I'd also vote for her, for example if I'd live in CO).

At least we won't come 30k votes close to electing a fascist for President (=> like Austria).

Who knows ... don't count the chickens before they hatch.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC-Washngton Post: Clinton up by 12 on: June 26, 2016, 09:47:57 am
Nope.

She's not up by more than 5 nationally.

No. You're underestimating the Blaxicasians the same way Sanders did. Election is Safe D.

There are certainly enough Blaxicasians out there to lift her to a 5-point win, but not a 12-point win.

A 12-point win would only be possible if Hillary were actually popular with people (=> she's not).
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI on: June 26, 2016, 09:42:40 am
I find it hard to believe that Clinton does better in North Carolina than in Colorado.

Previous polls in CO had her down by 10, so +1 is definitely an improvement for her.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI on: June 26, 2016, 09:38:20 am
Full results with 3rd party candidates:



https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/06/26/battleground-colorado-florida-north-carolina-wisco
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC-Washngton Post: Clinton up by 12 on: June 26, 2016, 09:36:15 am
Nope.

She's not up by more than 5 nationally.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI on: June 26, 2016, 09:35:11 am








http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-poll-florida-north-carolina-wisconsin-colorado-battleground-states
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why has Hillary dropped off so much since March/April? on: June 26, 2016, 05:36:55 am
Because US voters are starting to realize what unlikeable trainwrecks Clinton and Trump really are and now they are looking for alternatives ...
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Saint Leo University: Clinton +8 nationally, +15 in Florida on: June 26, 2016, 05:30:55 am
The Clinton-margin in FL is way too high, she's probably ahead by only 5-10%.

Plus: it's probably C+5 nationally.

Let's see what CBS/YouGov shows later today ...
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: June 26, 2016, 12:58:22 am
Both the Greens and the FPÍ are already preparing for a possible Presidential runoff re-vote in October, in case the Constitutional Court orders one.

Also, the Interior Ministry is preparing for one as well and President Heinz Fischer said a re-vote "would be no tragedy for the country".
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: June 26, 2016, 12:49:29 am
New ATV poll:

35% FPÍ
24% SPÍ
18% ÍVP
14% Greens
  7% NEOS
  1% TS
  1% Others

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20160625_OTS0012/atv-oesterreich-trend-zur-bp-wahl-fast-34-der-fpoe-waehlerinnen-glauben-an-wahlbetrug
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: June 26, 2016, 12:47:02 am
Isnt the unemployment rising across Austria, especially in Wien? xd

Not to mention the massive debt accumulation which has risen 20% from 68 to 88% of Gdp since 2008 ..

Yes, but that's not 100% the SPÍ's fault, the ÍVP is to blame as well: SPÍVP are extremely lethargic on the economy and jobs, hurting the businesses wherever they can instead of helping them. Not to mention the failed immigration policy, which means 90.000 asylum seekers will be added to the welfare rolls, because they cannot work. And those who can, will be added to the unemployment rolls because almost no Austrian business owner will hire analphabets from AfPak. Plus, the unemployment is rising steadily not only because of the foreigners streaming in and SPÍVP's economic incompetence/stagnation, but also because a lot of women are now streaming into the labour market and the Austrian businesses simply cannot generate 120.000 jobs a year (90K foreigners and 30K citizens) ...
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: June 25, 2016, 12:27:36 pm
Chancellor Christian Kern was officially elected SPÍ-leader today with 97% of the delegates at their convention in Vienna:



In his 90-minute "welcome" speech to the delegates he talked about how he'll work to revitalise the SPÍ, that he wants to continue the SPÍVP coalition until 2018, how the SPÍ should try to win back voters who switched over to the FPÍ, that the SPÍ should prevent the FPÍ from taking power at the federal level, but to work with them on the local/state level. He called the FPÍ an "incompetent party" that fu**ed things up whenever they were in power, which is the reason why he does not want the SPÍ to enter a coalition with them on the national level. He also talked about renewable energy, climate change etc. and how to create more jobs in the next years and that the SPÍ is the party "most competent" when it comes to the economy (a hit directed at the ÍVP).

Kern got standing ovations from the delegates after his speech.

http://derstandard.at/2000039817243/Christian-Kern-mit-viel-Jubel-zum-SPOe-Parteichef-gewaehlt
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CBS News/YouGov swing state polls out Sunday on: June 25, 2016, 09:36:40 am
My predictions:

CO: Clinton+6 (+3 with third party candidates)
FL: Clinton+7 (+5)
NC: Tie (Trump+2)
WI: Clinton+11 (+9)
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / CBS News/YouGov swing state polls out Sunday on: June 25, 2016, 09:30:25 am
We'll have some new Battleground Tracker poll numbers on the race between Hillary Clinton and Trump, along with some other issues, in the key swing states of Florida, Wisconsin, Colorado, and North Carolina.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/sunday-marco-rubio-the-brexit-and-new-2016-polls
25  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Many in France want to leave the EU in new poll. Let's say that happens... on: June 25, 2016, 12:49:41 am
Obviously, Ipsos does not poll here - but the Austrian figure is 28% leave, 53% remain in the latest ATV poll from this week.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20160623_OTS0082/atv-oesterreich-trend-zum-brexit-mehr-als-die-haelfte-lehnt-referendum-in-oesterreich-ab
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