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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: Today at 12:52:18 am
My prediction:

51.1% BronKo
48.9% Duda

Turnout: 52%
2  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 on: May 23, 2015, 01:54:51 pm
If anyone wants to watch live (via BBC one & English commentary):

http://en.firstonetv.com/stream/uk/8
3  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 on: May 23, 2015, 01:51:58 pm
It's also ridiculous that Ireland with Molly Sterling was eliminated in the semis.
Agreed - it was one of the few songs that wasn't out of key.

I think Sweden will win it tonight.

Nah... Sweden is overrated by the bookies I think.

I think an outsider like one of the 3 Baltic countries will win it.

Anyway, it starts in ca. 5 minutes.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015 on: May 23, 2015, 01:33:44 pm
Despite the big win in Ireland, gay-marriage is still overpolling:

In the last few polls before the referendum (excl. "undecided"), about 70-73% said they'll vote YES.

On election day, only 62% did.

This continues the trend seen in referendums in Slovenia, Croatia and Slovakia.

That's not good news for possible future referendums on this issue in other countries where the polls could show a close race and then voters end up rejecting gay marriage.
Undecided voters are likely to swing back to the Status Quo on the day.

How many undecided voters were there in the polls?

Between 6-23%.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015 on: May 23, 2015, 01:21:51 pm
Despite the big win in Ireland, gay-marriage is still overpolling:

In the last few polls before the referendum (excl. "undecided"), about 70-73% said they'll vote YES.

On election day, only 62% did.

This continues the trend seen in referendums in Slovenia, Croatia and Slovakia.

That's not good news for possible future referendums on this issue in other countries where the polls could show a close race and then voters end up rejecting gay marriage.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: May 23, 2015, 01:07:35 pm
Ahead of the state election next Sunday in Styria, Gov. Franz Voves (SPÖ) is under heavy pressure from the FPÖ and is veering right as a last resort, promising to go after "integration-unwilling immigrants" because "it's a duty of Social Democracy not to ignore these problems and tackle them".

It's no secret that many former Social Democrats are abandoning the party for the FPÖ and apparently he thinks that he can keep them voting SPÖ ... but the recent polls are really swingy when it comes to the FPÖ (17-24%) and usually swingy poll numbers indicate an underpolling for the FPÖ. I would not rule out the SPÖ dropping below 30% and the FPÖ as high as 25%.

If his SPÖ drops below 30% (from 38% in 2010 and which is possible according to polls), Gov. Voves said he will resign.

http://derstandard.at/2000016106772/Steiermark-Voves-will-bei-unter-30-Prozent-fuer-SPOe-zuruecktreten
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: May 23, 2015, 12:09:42 pm
New poll by Unique Research for "Profil" magazine (n=500):

27% FPÖ
26% SPÖ
25% ÖVP
13% Greens
  6% NEOS
  1% TS
  2% Others

Chancellor vote:

19% Reinhold Mitterlehner (ÖVP)
18% Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ)
17% Werner Faymann (SPÖ-incumbent)
  7% Eva Glawischnig (Greens)
  2% Matthias Strolz (NEOS)
37% Others/None of these

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-fpoe-vor-spoe-und-oevp-5655059
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: May 23, 2015, 10:36:36 am
Tender, is at always a binary PR or FPTP choice when reform is brought up? No mentions of say, MMP or STV?

The ones I mentioned above are the party plans for NEOS, while the ÖVP/JVP seem to have a few different models (but no STV). Don't know what the TS wants, don't really care either.

But as long as the SPÖ is unwilling to do reform on this matter and ÖVP/NEOS/TS are not entering a coalition with each other, any reform is unlikely anyway. There's no actual talk of changing the system right now, just party "plans" ...
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: May 23, 2015, 10:23:47 am
* The "Young ÖVP" proposed a switch from PR to FPTP in the new party program. For this to pass, a 2/3 majority was needed from the delegates. The measure was rejected by 1 vote (66.58%) ...

Very interesting. Is this just the ÖVP proposing a shift from MMP to FPTP or a broader section of the Austrian electorate? And why would that be?

The reason why I ask is due to the fact that, here in Canada, the NDP and Greens are also proposing a reverse shift... from FPTP to MMP in order to make popular vote share match elected representatives.

BTW, the Canadian provinces of BC, Ontario, and PEI all have had relatively recent referendums on moving from FPTP to MMP (STV in BC`s case). All 3 referendums failed.

In Austria, the ÖVP/NEOS/TS favour a switch to FPTP.

The SPÖ doesn't really have a position on it, but seems to be in favour of the status quo.

Greens and FPÖ are strongly opposed to FPTP and want to keep PR.

...

The last poll about this issue was not long ago: 35% support, 35% oppose, 30% undecided.

Talk about changing PR in favour of FPTP often comes up if the government in charge (SPÖVP) gets nothing or not much done and then they think FPTP solves everything ... Tongue

Why on earth would NEOS favour FPTP?! They'd get slaughtered under that system.

According to their party platform, NEOS favours a mixed FPTP/PR system (like in Germany) with 60% of MPs elected by FPTP and the remaining 40% by PR, while lowering the threshold to 3%. Small parties (like NEOS) would get compensation seats. Their plan also has special elections in case some MP dies or steps down.

Quote
Personalisiertes Verhältniswahlrecht einführen:

Die Anzahl der auf die Parteien entfallenden Mandate ergibt sich
aus dem Verhältnis der Parteistimmen. Die Sperrklausel wird auf 3%
gesenkt. Die Auswahl der Abgeordneten, die diese Mandate ausfüllen,
erfolgt hinsichtlich von 60% der Abgeordneten durch Direktwahl in
den Regionalwahlkreisen (annähernd gleich große Einerwahlkreise,
relative Mehrheit). Dazu wird die Anzahl der Regionalwahlkreise
dementsprechend vermehrt sowie eigene Wahlkreise für Auslandsösterreicher_
innen begründet. Bei Ausfall eines Mandatars (Tod, Rücktritt,
etc.) erfolgt im betroffenen Wahlkreis eine Nachwahl.

Die weiteren 40% der Abgeordneten, denen die Mandate zum
Proportionalausgleich zugewiesen werden, werden über die
Bundeslisten der jeweiligen Parteien berufen. Dadurch erfolgt der
Ausgleich insbesondere für kleinere Parteien, die keine oder nur
wenige Regionalwahlkreismandate errungen haben. Gewinnt eine
Partei in den Regionalwahlkreisen mehr Mandate, als ihr nach dem
Stimmenverhältnis zustünden, verbleiben diese Sitze der Partei.
Die übrigen Parteien erhalten gegebenenfalls zusätzliche Ausgleichsmandate.
Somit ist sichergestellt, dass das Verhältnisprinzip
jedenfalls gewahrt ist.

https://neos.eu/programm
10  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 on: May 23, 2015, 09:45:56 am
The video postcard for Malta was shot here in Zell am See btw.

The candidate for Malta went skydiving here at the airport ... Smiley

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0l_lV2_5f0M
11  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 on: May 23, 2015, 09:25:28 am
It's also ridiculous that Ireland with Molly Sterling was eliminated in the semis.
12  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 on: May 23, 2015, 09:22:26 am
The Final is today.

Anyone watching ?

Estonia or Norway should win, IMO.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Gravis Marketing-Washington on: May 23, 2015, 09:21:00 am
Sry, but ... nope.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015 on: May 23, 2015, 09:17:06 am
Nice.

Looks like 2/3 YES when all is counted, right ?
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: May 23, 2015, 09:14:23 am
State elections next Sunday in Styria and Burgenland and there was an early voting day yesterday in both states.

In Burgenland, it was the first time voters were able to cast their votes early and 8.6% of voters did.

http://burgenland.orf.at/news/stories/2712514

In Styria, where an early vote day was established in 2005, turnout was 7.2% of voters (up from 5.7% in 2010).

http://kurier.at/chronik/oesterreich/steiermark-wahl-2015/steiermark-7-17-prozent-waehlten-vorgezogen/132.093.895

Total turnout should be around 70% in Styria and 75% in Burgenland.

Voters can also vote by absentee ballot.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: May 23, 2015, 08:56:14 am
But if we just shut out everyone past a certain amount, those poor people will still have no place to go.

So where would you draw the line? A million or perhaps two? How about doubling Austria's population? Anyway, they have plenty of places to go...it's not like they didn't cross other EU (or safe) countries on their way to Austria.

Exactly. I support the current system which is outfitted to house some 15.000-25.000 asylum seekers, but not the 60.000 that are expected this year without creating problems for municipalities such as finding enough living quarters to avoid these poor people ending up on the street. Every left-leftist dreamer is free to take up their own asylum seeker family though and house them in in their own apartment and pay the bill for them on their own ... It's not Austria who's not doing enough (we are), but other rich countries.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: May 23, 2015, 08:49:30 am
* The "Young ÖVP" proposed a switch from PR to FPTP in the new party program. For this to pass, a 2/3 majority was needed from the delegates. The measure was rejected by 1 vote (66.58%) ...

Very interesting. Is this just the ÖVP proposing a shift from MMP to FPTP or a broader section of the Austrian electorate? And why would that be?

The reason why I ask is due to the fact that, here in Canada, the NDP and Greens are also proposing a reverse shift... from FPTP to MMP in order to make popular vote share match elected representatives.

BTW, the Canadian provinces of BC, Ontario, and PEI all have had relatively recent referendums on moving from FPTP to MMP (STV in BC`s case). All 3 referendums failed.

In Austria, the ÖVP/NEOS/TS favour a switch to FPTP.

The SPÖ doesn't really have a position on it, but seems to be in favour of the status quo.

Greens and FPÖ are strongly opposed to FPTP and want to keep PR.

...

The last poll about this issue was not long ago: 35% support, 35% oppose, 30% undecided.

Talk about changing PR in favour of FPTP often comes up if the government in charge (SPÖVP) gets nothing or not much done and then they think FPTP solves everything ... Tongue
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: May 23, 2015, 08:39:11 am
Explanation for the chart that Georg Ebner posted:

This week, all Austrian university students (ca. 325.000) elected their new student parliament and their "government" or representatives.

The current student government is made up of a leftist alliance of GRAS/VSStÖ/FLÖ and FEST.

The election results would make another term for them possible (29 vs. 26 seats).

AG = ÖVP
GRAS = Greens
VSStÖ = SPÖ
FLÖ = Indy, leftist
JUNOS = NEOS
FEST = Indy, leftist
KSV-LILI = Communists (anti-Stalin)
RFS = FPÖ
Liste = satirical list similar to the German "Die Partei" (The Party)
KSV = Communists (pro-Stalin)
Stulife = Turkish AKP

You can see the results for each university here:

http://fm4.orf.at/stories/1758985
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Are you a member of a labor union? on: May 21, 2015, 01:57:10 pm
Side fact:

In 1996 the AK, which represents most of the Austrian employees (3.5 million), held a membership vote if mandatory membership and union representation should continue.

Turnout was 70% and 90.6% voted Yes.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Are you a member of a labor union? on: May 21, 2015, 01:17:03 pm
Yes, I'm a member of the AK (Arbeiterkammer).

0.5% of my monthly gross wage is automatically deducted as membership fee because union membership is mandatory here.
21  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Hot or Not: Ayelet Shaked on: May 17, 2015, 11:50:56 am
Hot, but apparently a member of a horrible party.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: May 17, 2015, 11:33:48 am

Two questions:

1. What's the threshold here again?
2. "Steirer Wahl wird zum Krimi"?  Does that translate to "Styrian election is becoming a crime-mystery," or am I mistaken?  I understand they're trying to get the point across that it's exciting, but that seems like a strange metaphor to me.  Is Krimi commonly used to refer to suspenseful events in general?

1. Styria is the only Austrian state which has no threshold for state elections. The 48 seats are allocated the following way: There are two "Ermittlungsverfahren" (seat allocation calculations) after the state election. First the Hagenbach-Bischoff method is used in the 1st allocation calculation to determine if a party has achieved a basic mandate in one of the 4 electoral districts. This basic mandate is a requirement to get "rest seats" in the 2nd seat allocation calculation, which uses D´Hondt.

Quote
Die 48 Mandate werden nach Durchführung von zwei Ermittlungsverfahren vergeben, wobei im ersten Ermittlungsverfahren auf Ebene der vier Wahlkreise die Methode von Hagenbach-Bischoff und im zweiten Verfahren auf Landesebene die Methode nach D´Hondt zur Anwendung kommt. Um im zweiten Ermittlungsverfahren einen Anspruch auf Zuweisung von Restmandaten erheben zu können, müssen die wahlwerbenden Parteien fristgerecht einen Landeswahlvorschlag einbringen und jedenfalls nach dem ersten Ermittlungsverfahren zumindest ein Mandat, das so genannte Grundmandat, in einem Wahlkreis erreicht haben. Neben der Voraussetzung des Erreichens dieses Grundmandates gibt es in der Steiermark aber keine weitere Eintrittshürde. Insbesondere enthält die Wahlordnung keine landesweite Prozenthürde.

http://www.verwaltung.steiermark.at/cms/beitrag/11684283/74836525

2. "Steirer Wahl wird zum Krimi" cannot be literally translated into English as in "Styrian election is becoming a crime-mystery". Rather, it means "Styrian election is becoming a nail-biter".

"Krimi" does not mean "crime-mystery", but rather the thrill that you get out of reading a crime novel. And yes, you often read the term Krimi when it comes to elections.

...

Is Team Stronach still alive?!

Yes, "alive" - but:



As you see from the Styria polls, they will be lucky to get 1-2%.

In Burgenland, they didn't even run an own list - instead they joined the LBL to run a joint list.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IN-Sen: Coats retiring on: May 15, 2015, 10:04:51 am

That's a pretty competetive race now.

Which means IN might become a target for Hillary as well if the early polls do not look all too bad.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / GA-Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone/WSB-TV: Huckabee ahead on: May 15, 2015, 05:59:02 am
Which Republican would you vote for in the Georgia Presidential Primary?

18.3% Mike Huckabee
15.4% Ben Carson
12.6% Scott Walker
10.1% Jeb Bush
  9.6% Marco Rubio
  9.3% Ted Cruz
  4.0% Rand Paul
  2.6% Carly Fiorina
  2.2% Chris Christie
  0.3% Rick Santorum
15.6% Undecided

The poll of 500 Republican primary voters was conducted May 11 and 12 included ten possible candidates for president. The poll had a margin of error of 4.3 percent.

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/local/poll-huckabee-early-choice-georgia-republicans/nmGpX/
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: May 15, 2015, 05:39:30 am
2 new Styria polls today.

Gallup:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Steirer-Wahl-wird-zum-Krimi/188475821

...

Market:



http://derstandard.at/2000015820141/Umfrage-Daempfer-fuer-steirische-Reformer
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