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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 French Presidential Election on: Today at 12:08:15 pm
macron not being in the top 2 would need to be the biggest polling error since....does anyone know?

Hash, be patient ...

Austria 2016, first round.
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Stranger: More Than 1,000 People Moving to Seattle a Week (Census Report) on: Today at 10:19:49 am
Don't know where they got the numbers from, but they are not as high ...

King County grew by 35.700 people last year (+1.7%), of which 15.500 came from an international migration surplus, 12.300 from natural balance and 8.500 from a domestic migration surplus.

So, it's more like a surplus of 500 people moving to King County each week.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 on: Today at 10:06:36 am
It's really hard to say what turnout will look like because of the fact that sometimes turnout will be even lower than the percentage of people that say they are sure to vote  (Dutch referendum 2016) and sometimes a lot of people in the likely category show up (general election 2017). I usually expect people in the "sure to vote" category to turn out and only, say, 20% of the likely category (which is the socially acceptable answer for those who doubt they will vote), but due to fluctuations you can't really say anything meaningful about it. All the Dutch pollsters expected turnout to be about as high as in 2012, and the pundits expected an all-time low.

That said, across Western Europe we now see turnout is often higher than before due to the refugee crisis, Trump, Brexit, unrest in the Middle East, domestic policy and policymakers being more controversial, etc. It's hard to say anything meaningful about turnout in the next Austrian GE, especially while we're this far out of the election, but I would intuitively expect turnout in Austria to be higher.

Yeah, it's a long way to go until the next elections (even though early elections could be held in late November, according to some new speculations) and it's hard to predict the turnout.

I guess we need to wait if there's a significant uptick in turnout in Germany (and especially Bavaria) to see if this trend of rising turnout also continues in Austria.

And it will depend on the candidates running: Kern/Kurz/Strache-Hofer/Strolz-Griss would all drive up turnout I guess. Mitterlehner not so much. And the educated Greens always turn out to vote in big numbers.

PS: It seems the Young Greens are slowly giving in to the demands of the mother party, but could still be kicked out of the party, because they still want to run in the Graz and Linz university elections by backing rogue Green lists.

http://derstandard.at/2000055041399/OeH-Wahl-Gruene-Studierende-geben-nach-Druck-der-Mutterpartei-nach
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 on: Today at 12:57:55 am
The latest federal elections poll by Unique Research for "Profil" magazine also has a turnout indicator:

73.6% of those polled say they are certain to vote in the 2017/18 federal election.

That is a really good turnout indicator months away from the election, because usually it's the certain voters + a few more who say they are "likely" to vote which make up the final turnout.

Final 2013 turnout was 75%.

If I remember correctly, a similar turnout indicator 2 weeks before the election in the Netherlands had 68% certain voters and final turnout was 82%.

https://neuwal.com/wahlumfragen/wahlumfrage.php?uid=1295
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 on: March 28, 2017, 10:32:23 am
The intra-Green fight (see above) intensifies ...

The Greens have given the Young Greens an ultimatum until Friday to give up their rebellion, or their funding will be cut and they'll get kicked out of the party.

So far, the Young Greens have said that they won't give in to the demands of the mother party and Glawischnig and Co. also said that the rogue behavious of the Youngsters wouldn't be tolerated in any party.

http://derstandard.at/2000055012865/Junge-Gruene-treiben-Debatte-um-Parteifuehrung-an
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update for Everyone V: Born Under A Bad Sign on: March 28, 2017, 10:19:29 am
My left ear has become numb. I only hear about 50% of the right ear.

Probably check the doctor tomorrow if it doesn't go away. I think I had this once but it went away overnight. I guess there's an enormous amount of earwax in it that's clogging it, which I cannot get rid of because it's too deep in the ear.
Don't use Q-tips. Try running hot water down your ears in the shower.

I didn't.

I went to the doc today and he removed all the ear-wax from inside, by pumping high-speed warm water into my ears. You guys don't even know what amount of ear-wax can be inside the ears ... Tongue

Now my ears are fine again.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: RI's 2016 Precinct Map Thread on: March 28, 2017, 10:17:21 am
Don't stress yourself.

Stress kills.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 on: March 28, 2017, 09:35:51 am
God-Emperor and former Lower Austria Gov Erwin Pröll gave a final interview with the main public television information program which kind of escalated after the interviewer, the infamous Armin Wolf, asked about Pröll's handling of his private foundation.

A foundation which is TOTALLY LEGAL but the Lower Austria state parliament always handled it like the nuclear codes and contrary to other foundations, transparency runs against zero.

http://derstandard.at/2000054970923/Weingott-streng-im-AbgangErwin-Proell-bei-Armin-Wolf-in-der

Full Interview:
http://tvthek.orf.at/profile/Additional-Content/1670/Langversion-Erwin-Proell-OeVP-im-ZIB-2-Gespraech/13922825/Langversion-Erwin-Proell-OeVP-im-ZIB-2-Gespraech/14014802

Legal, but it's something that the opposition parties can use against the JML-ÖVP in the March 2018 state election, the first without God-Emperor Erwin Pröll as leading candidate.

The ÖVP is already expected to suffer huge losses with the new Governor, because it will be impossible to hold the absolute majorities that Erwin Pröll won for the party.

Plus, the FPÖ (which is traditionally weak in Lower Austria) is tactically positioning itself to benefit from this new situation by sending their frontrunner Walter Rosenkranz* (who's also an MP in the Austrian Parliament) into the Eurofighter investigation committee, which will start soon.

By having their "man from Lower Austria" in the committee as a key investigator, they will get positive coverage about transparency etc. and this committee will last at least until the state election.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/FPOe-mit-Rosenkranz-an-der-Spitze/275138568

* Walter Rosenkranz btw is not related to the infamous Neo-Nazi and failed FPÖ-presidential candidate from 2010, Barbara Rosenkranz, also known as "Reich-Mother".
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 28, 2017, 09:19:42 am
The NRW election could end up being the reverse of the Saarland election: In Saarland, the popular CDU-Governor was responsible for pushing the party above 40%, 5% more than what polling showed. The SPD underperformed, even though their frontrunner was also quite popular.

In NRW, it's Governor Hannelore Kraft (SPD) who has very high ratings (64% approving of her job), while the CDU-guy only has 40% approval ratings. Even Christian ("Barney") Lindner (FDP) has better ratings than the CDU-guy ...



And in a direct vote for Governor, Kraft is also far ahead of the CDU-guy:



On the other hand, NRW has 18 million people vs the 1 million in Saarland, so this might shake things up - but I still believe Kraft and the SPD might outperform the polls there. I guess the Greens will take a bigger hit tough.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkey referendum, 2017 on: March 28, 2017, 07:54:02 am
Voting abroad started yesterday and turnout on the first day was huge in Austria, Germany, Netherlands and Switzerlands, according to media reports.

It is estimated that about 60-80% of Turks here will vote (up from 45% in the 2015 parliamentary elections) and that of those voting some 70-80% will vote Evet (Yes).

Austrian Turks are amongst the fiercest Erdogan-backers out there (the AKP got 49% in the parliamentary election in Turkey, but around 70% in Austria).
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 on: March 28, 2017, 07:41:13 am
2 months after the election, Graz (2nd largest city here) will get a ÖVP-FPÖ coalition in the municipal council.

http://derstandard.at/2000054944780/Graz-wird-schwarzblau

The Graz Senate though is made up proportionally (3 ÖVP Senators, 2 KPÖ Senators, 1 FPÖ Senator and 1 Green Senator).

Side fact: The SPÖ received their lowest result on record in the election and was kicked out of the Senate (after getting 60% of the votes in the 1970s).

Also: The new ÖVP-led government decided to strip the KPÖ of their successful housing department, which led to their strong electoral performance in the past elections. The FPÖ will now be in charge of the housing department. The KPÖ can take solace from the fact that they got a 2nd Senator in the election, but it's still bad for them ...)
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update for Everyone V: Born Under A Bad Sign on: March 27, 2017, 08:38:07 am
My left ear has become numb. I only hear about 50% of the right ear.

Probably check the doctor tomorrow if it doesn't go away. I think I had this once but it went away overnight. I guess there's an enormous amount of earwax in it that's clogging it, which I cannot get rid of because it's too deep in the ear.
13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Tender's megathread on bad refugees & Austrians doing bad things in Austria on: March 27, 2017, 01:31:47 am
No, you'll never report on non-immigrant/non-refugee crime

Austrian woman admits she killed her own dog in a washer-dryer

A saga that has gripped Austria of a small dog spun to death in a washer-dryer took a shock twist Friday when the owner sensationally confessed to being the killer.

Initially, Silvia S. had said that she had come home last weekend to find the mangled remains of her beloved Gizmo, a Yorkshire Terrier, in a plant pot by her front door.



The 49-year-old from Gratkorn in southern Austria had said that she had found an accompanying note that read: "Still warm. Suitable for washer-dryer".

Police found blood splatters and bits of fur inside the appliance.

In a story that won widespread media coverage, the inconsolable owner, pictured clutching sadly the green plant pot in question, fingered her neighbour as the prime suspect.

But on Friday police said that after a "thorough investigation" the owner herself admitted having accidentally been the culprit.

She told investigators that she had not noticed Gizmo when she turned on the machine to wash two dog blankets.

"She wanted to blame her neighbour in order not to have to confess to her son what had really happened," police said in a statement, adding that she now faces charges.

https://www.thelocal.at/20170324/austrian-woman-admits-she-killed-her-own-dog-in-a-washer-dryer
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 26, 2017, 01:34:15 pm
CDU at 42.4% and SPD at 29.7% right now. Any new seat projection?
 
 
Most likely 24 CDU, 17 SPD, 7 Linke, 3 AfD. The two largest cities Saarbrücken and Neuenkichen aren't in yet but something big would need to happen to give Red-Red the majority.

Saarbrücken is actually fully counted already.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 26, 2017, 11:59:06 am
Here is the actual count:

7/52 cities counted.

http://www.statistikextern.saarland.de/wahl/internet_saar/LT_SL/landesergebnisse/
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 26, 2017, 11:30:53 am
The CDU mobilized more than twice as many non-voters than the SPD ...

Notice that turnout went up 10% to 71%.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 26, 2017, 11:23:41 am
First ARD projection (based on already-counted precincts):



First ZDF projection (based on already-counted precincts):

18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 26, 2017, 11:14:50 am
18:00 ARD exit poll:







18:00 ZDF exit poll:





19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 26, 2017, 11:07:30 am
But, but...what about the Schulz Train?

Pretty easy:



(nah ... just a joke, this election was just really local and considering AKK's approval ratings, this was expected.)
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 26, 2017, 11:00:51 am
18:00 ARD Exit Poll:

41.0% CDU [+5.8]
29.5% SPD [-1.1]
13.0% Left
  6.0% AfD
  3.0% FDP
  4.5% Greens

Turnout 71% (+10%)
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 26, 2017, 10:54:58 am
The ARD election day survey preview indicates an easy win for the CDU.

85% of voters say their personal economic situation is excellent/good, 65% say the same for the state.

76% approve of Governor AKK's job (68% of her SPD-counterpart).

By a 63-21 margin, voters say AKK is the stronger leader than Rehlinger.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 26, 2017, 10:20:56 am
BTW:

These are the 2 frontrunners of the SPD (left) and CDU (right), at a demo against the NPD:

23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 26, 2017, 10:08:03 am
The CDU will definitely celebrate tonight.

I would say so too. AKK is a fairly popular governor and the incumbency advantage should lead to a nice victory for the CDU. I don't think the Rehlinger-SPD can pull this out, considering they have a bigger opposition with the Left and the Greens (16% combined) than the CDU has with the FDP and AfD (11%).
24  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Erdogan: Europeans won't walk the streets safely until they respect Turkey on: March 26, 2017, 09:44:48 am


25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 26, 2017, 09:20:35 am
Saarland: At 2PM 32,6% of the voters have cast their ballots. That's a little higher then in 2012 (31,1%) but significantly lower then 2009 (36,7%). In 2012 the full turnout was 61,6%, in 2009 67,6% and in 2004 55,5%. So as it stands the turnout will be somewhere between 62% and 64% which is pretty much the norm in the last 20 years.

Do you know if the 2pm figure includes postal ballots or not ?

If there's a higher number of postal voters this year, turnout could be higher ...
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