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April 18, 2015, 11:42:43 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of cheerleaders on: Today at 09:06:31 am
Even though they do not exist in Austrian high schools, FF.

I like to watch hot, sporty, flexible chicks do figures.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: Today at 04:14:44 am
For the first time since Oct. 2013, the SPÖ is at 28% again in a poll for the federal elections.

IMAS for the "Krone":

28% SPÖ (+1 compared with '13 federal election)
27% ÖVP (+3)
25% FPÖ (+4)
13% Greens (+1)
  5% NEOS (nc)
  1% TS (-5)
  1% Others (-4)

It also means that for the first time since the 2013 federal elections, SPÖ and ÖVP both have more support now than in that election.
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Joe Republic Bureau of Funny Post Archival on: Today at 02:42:18 am
Click for the context:

The clown bus has arrived.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee forms exploratory committee, plans May 5th announcement on 2016 on: Today at 02:38:55 am
It seems no Republican with at least some ambition wants to take a pass on running against the DEVIL Hillary Clinton ... Wink
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Max Podia? on: Today at 02:34:41 am
I don't think they will invite 20 candidates or something. Maybe 10 is the maximum.

They might also raise the requirements to "poll at least 3% or 5% in the last 5 polls", etc.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 21 potential GOP candidates in NH this weekend on: Today at 02:20:42 am
Maybe some less important ones who the editor is aware of, but not we ...
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: Today at 02:18:29 am
The good thing is that the SPÖ minister who's responsible for Infrastructure and the Internet (Stöger) is opposed to a new law.

Also, the Constitutional Court's leading judge said that because of the precedent of their ruling it would be unlikely that the new law would stand if it is brought before the Court again.

...

Amazing how eager the ÖVP ministers (Mikl-Leitner, Brandstetter) are in their plans to start spying on the population again.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: Today at 02:12:44 am
The Austrian Constitutional Court today ruled that the collection and storage of all internet, landline/mobile-phone data by the government is UNCONSTITUTIONAL and that the government needs to STOP it immediately:



http://derstandard.at/2000002350932/Verfassungsgerichtshof-kippt-Vorratsdatenspeicherung

(The government has argued that there's strict data protection and that data would only be given to police in severe cases like murder/kidnapping/severe sexually-motivated cases and terrorism.

Last year, 400 people's online/telephone data have been directed to the police, including one prominent murder case, after which the police found the murder suspect in Tyrol with his phone data. The young suspect killed his girlfriend, drove with her body to the Inn river and dumped her in there. The police triangulated his phone signals and found out that the phone was logged in at the Inn river shore, while he said he was at home).

The court ruling is even more far-reaching than I thought:

The Constitutional Court wiped out the data collection and storage law completely, effective immediately.

The court didn't even grant the government the possibility to "fix" the law (for example for murder cases).

The court also ordered that the government needs to delete all stored data.



...

Quote
Der Verfassungsgerichtshof hat am Freitag die Bestimmungen zur Vorratsdatenspeicherung in Österreich mit sofortiger Wirkung aufgehoben. Die Gesetze würden sowohl dem Grundrecht auf Datenschutz sowie Artikel 8 der Europäischen Menschenrechtskonvention, dem Recht auf Privat- und Familienleben, widersprechen, sagte Präsident Gerhart Holzinger bei der Verkündung der Entscheidung.

Eine Frist zur Reparatur wurde vom VfGH nicht gewährt. Sämtliche Bestimmungen zur Vorratsdatenspeicherung im Telekommunikationsgesetz, in der Strafprozessordnung sowie im Sicherheitspolizeigesetz seien mit dem Zeitpunkt der Kundmachung der Aufhebung außer Kraft zu setzen.

Laut den Verfassungsrichtern handelt es sich dabei um einen "gravierenden Eingriff in die Grundrechte", die nicht mit der Menschenrechtskonvention im Einklang stehen. Zudem sei die Verfolgung durch die Behörden mittels Vorratsdaten zu breit gestreut und würden nicht gezielt der Bekämpfung schwerer Verbrechen dienen.

http://www.wienerzeitung.at/dossiers/netzpolitik/640894_VfGH-hebt-Vorratsdatenspeicherung-auf.html

...

Ughhh, there's a new development:

* The BMI (Interior Ministry) and the Justice Ministry are working on bringing back a "data-storage law LIGHT". To prevent terrorism and organized crime and store the data for 10 weeks.

* What's even worse: a new OGM poll shows that Austrians back this initiative by a 2:1 margin, with only Green and NEOS-voters strongly opposed.



By party:

FPÖ-voters: 76-11 support
ÖVP-voters: 67-21 support
SPÖ-voters: 51-35 support

NEOS-voters: 26-65 oppose
Green-voters: 18-70 oppose

By age:

50+: 64% support
30-50: 51% support
<30: 48% support
9  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: %VAP ? on: Today at 02:00:01 am
Using VAP data from the 10-year Census wouldn't make much sense for the following Presidential elections, because it would artificially increase the turnout in each state (VAP is too low).

That's why you need to use the ACS data that's released every year to reflect up-to-date VAP and turnout.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / 21 potential GOP candidates in NH this weekend on: Today at 01:57:16 am
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/04/17/republican-candidates-come-new-hampshire/oYY0WQ4lrNUg4dX1W0zqCJ/story.html

Getting crowded ...
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich getting serious, launches PAC to raise money on: April 17, 2015, 01:08:30 pm
If someone wants to bet money on Kasich becoming the next POTUS, his winning quota is not bad right now:

1:80

I'm seriously considering investing 100€, to get 8000€ in case he gets elected ... Tongue
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich getting serious, launches PAC to raise money on: April 17, 2015, 09:58:01 am
Ugh. Huntsman Part II.

Not necessarily, if he and his campaign play it right.

A governor of OH is something bigger than a governor of UT ...
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich getting serious, launches PAC to raise money on: April 17, 2015, 09:53:21 am
He would be a strong candidate if he got into the race.

I agree.

If he can raise the money that is needed, I could definitely see him as the strongest candidate for the Republicans and a serious threat to Hillary in the general election.

Kasich actually seems to be a likeable person (I watched the CNN interview), unlike Walker - who's a dick and polarizing too.

He also appeals to working-class people and the working poor and tries to improve the lives of drug addicts and people with mental illness.

Rand Paul wants that too, but he has other problems like being to isolationist - which is another bonus for Kasich.

And the Bush name is just toxic ...

So, Kasich has the bonus on his side that he can appeal to Republicans and more Democrats and Indies than any of the other GOP candidates.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Kasich getting serious, launches PAC to raise money on: April 17, 2015, 09:30:40 am
... called New Day for America.

CLEVELAND, Ohio - Gov. John Kasich is about to launch a national political committee that would allow him to raise money and his profile as he considers a run for president in 2016, sources close to the Republican said Thursday.

The effort, first reported on cleveland.com, has been in the works since Kasich's well-received visit last month to New Hampshire, which holds the first primary.

A source, who spoke to Northeast Ohio Media Group on the condition of anonymity, said the governor's team is "finishing work" and will register the organization soon. Another said the team is hammering out plans for an announcement.



Records show that a nonprofit called New Day for America incorporated this week with the Ohio secretary of state. The name is similar to one Kasich has used for his gubernatorial inaugural committee. The incorporator is listed as E. Mark Braden, an attorney and election-law specialist who has worked for Kasich before and who once served as chief counsel to the Republican National Committee.

New Day for America, according to the filing with the state, will operate as a "tax-exempt political organization" under Section 527 of the Internal Revenue Code.

This is not an official declaration of candidacy or a committee that will accept donations for a full-fledged Kasich-for-president campaign. Kasich will continue doing what he has been for months -- touring the country to gauge interest, test a message and test his own appetite for the grind of another national run.

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2015/04/john_kasich_preparing_to_launc.html
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: April 17, 2015, 08:32:50 am
Good to see Austria has got at least one sane state where the FPÖ is polling in the low double digits where it belongs.

What's LBL by the way ? I don't remember hearing about them.

A) There are also 2 other states besides Burgenland in which the FPÖ does badly in state elections: Lower Austria and Tyrol. In Lower Austria, the FPÖ only got 8% in the 2013 election and in Tyrol only 9% (also in 2013).

While I agree on Lower Austria, I still wouldn't brand Tyrol as a sane state, but maybe that's just me... Wink

I beg your pardon? Tongue
Well, looking at the results, it's a bit saner than Vorarlberg, I'll give you that.

What is then the difference that would make you count Lower Austria as a sane state and not Tirol? It's beyond obvious that the latter is by far the best state Tongue

... almost the best state.

Wink

(I think we need to create a poll on this)
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: FL-Mason Dixon: Rubio 31% Bush 30% Cruz 8% Paul 7% on: April 17, 2015, 08:28:49 am
LOLBush.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: April 17, 2015, 08:24:19 am
Good to see Austria has got at least one sane state where the FPÖ is polling in the low double digits where it belongs.

What's LBL by the way ? I don't remember hearing about them.

A) There are also 2 other states besides Burgenland in which the FPÖ does badly in state elections: Lower Austria and Tyrol. In Lower Austria, the FPÖ only got 8% in the 2013 election and in Tyrol only 9% (also in 2013).

While I agree on Lower Austria, I still wouldn't brand Tyrol as a sane state, but maybe that's just me... Wink

I beg your pardon? Tongue

In fact, Lower Austria is a much crappier state than Tyrol:

* It's the state of the "basement offenders" (Fritzl, Priklopil) and the dude who ran amok 2 years ago who shot & killed 3 police and a Red Cross worker and then burned himself alive in his basement as the SWAT team besieged his home.

* homestate of Hitler's parents.

* homestate of Erwin Pröll

Pretty much tells you everything you need to know.
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Current death penalty support by country ? on: April 17, 2015, 08:20:40 am
On this topic, the Nebraska legislature is debating death penalty repeal now:
http://www.netnebraska.org/interactive-multimedia/government/unicameral-legislative-session-88

It would be a great sign if a solidly Republican state would actually abolish it.

But I only believe it if it is actually signed into law ...
Only 30% of Nebraskans support the death penalty.
Support for the death penalty in America cuts across party lines. In Maryland, for example, abolition was held up for several years by Joe Vallario, the Democratic head of the Judiciary Committee.
Remember, North Dakota and Alaska both don't have the death penalty while California, Delaware, Oregon and Washington do. (of course the reasons for that are more complicated)

Do you have a source for that ?

I seriously doubt that, considering US-wide support is 60-65% and it's traditionally higher in Republican states.
I do
The bill got preliminary approval today.
Not sure if you know this or not, but a major goal of those against state executions today is to get 25 states to abolish the death penalty. At that point, the supreme court has implied that it'd be banned by the 8th amendment.

That's a poll from the ACLU though.

You need to treat it with 10 truckloads of salt.

PS: I didn't know that with the 25 states, I only knew that that was the goal of the National Popular Vote people.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: April 17, 2015, 06:05:00 am
A new Gallup poll:

20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: April 17, 2015, 05:44:52 am
Burgenland has a state election on May 31 and there's a new (rare) poll from this smallest state of Austria.

46% SPÖ

56% Hans Niessl (SPÖ-incumbent)
24% Franz Steindl (ÖVP)

The Burgenland-SPÖ has started their poster campaign today and Gov. Niessl is appearing on one poster without the SPÖ-logo, indicating that the party relies on his popularity (usually, the ÖVP does this). His main focus is creating jobs and a focus on young people. That's also a reason why the FPÖ sucks in this state.





21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker on: April 16, 2015, 12:41:54 pm
I didn't know Walker was unpopular in WI.

Apparently because of heavy school and university cuts which are extremely unpopular:

Quote
78% of voters oppose Walker proposal to cut $127 million from K-12 school spending, 18% support that.

Quote
Striking when something like the pub school spending proposal gets that much opposition, Franklin says.

Quote
$300 million proposed cut in UW budget: very substantial level of opposition, Franklin says.

Quote
70% oppose $300 million cut, 26% support it.

Quote
60% oppose Walker proposal to make Natural Resources Bd advisory-only, 30% support that.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / WI-Marquette: Walker & Hillary ahead on: April 16, 2015, 12:36:20 pm
GOP:

Quote
Choice for GOP nomination among those voters: Walker 40%, Rand Paul 10%, Jeb Bush 8%, Ted Cruz and Chris Christie 6%.

Mike Huckabee and Ben Carson get 5% support among WI GOP voters, Marco Rubio 4%, Bobby Jindal and Rick Santorum 2%.

DEMs:

Quote
Among WI Dems and Dem-leaning voters, Clinton is choice of 58%, Elizabeth Warren 14%, Joe Biden 12%.

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker on: April 16, 2015, 12:30:20 pm
Good numbers for Hilldog. Confirms the earlier PPP poll.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R) on: April 16, 2015, 12:29:17 pm
54-38 Feingold/Johnson

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/588755160995856384
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker on: April 16, 2015, 12:27:35 pm
52-40 Hillary/Walker

Walker job approval: 41-56

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/588754766492213251
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