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1  General Politics / Individual Politics / Opinion of comedian Roland Düringer's planned election list ? on: Today at 10:33:20 am
Read more here:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=254431.msg5664440#msg5664440

I find it interesting. I'd probably laugh the whole day if the new Parliament gets sworn in with stuffed animals at the desk instead of actual MPs.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: Today at 10:19:42 am
The popular Austrian comedian Roland Düringer has announced he wants to run in the Oct. election with a bizarre new list called "Gilt !" ("Your voice counts !" or "Your vote counts !").



It's basically some sort of art or satire project, not a list with an actual party programme. Düringer stated that he wants to increase turnout and give non-voters and voters who vote invalid a voice.

Currently, non-voters or spoilt votes do not result in seats in parliament - yet not casting a vote or voting invalid is also a choice. It means that you either don't care, are disgusted with politics etc.

Düringer wants these voters to be accounted for and represented in parliament and wants to place stuffed animals (rather than human MPs) on elected "MPs" seats ... Wink



It would also change the vote share of other parties and composition of parliament. For example, if the "non-voter" party didn't run, the ÖVP would get - let's say - 33%.

But if the "Gilt !" party attracts some 5 or 10%, the ÖVP share would drop to 30 or below and there would be some 9-18 stuffed animals as MPs in parliament.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: Today at 10:08:39 am
will kurz end conscription?

No. Why would he wanna do this ?

Kurz has said in the past that he prefers to keep conscription because it helps integration of foreigners and keeps the radical elements out (in a professional army, it's more likely that radicals volunteer, whereas the conscript army is a broad image of the population as a whole).

Besides, there was A) a referendum in Austria in 2013 in which 60% of voters wanted to keep the conscript army, and B) the FPÖ is also for keeping it and C) this is not an issue at all right now.

because he making "new ovp" and i was thinking he will end that relic of the past since austria is last country in eu with conscription, but ok thats internal topic in austria. ovp - fpo coalition would be good for balkans.

Finland and Greece also have conscription armies and Sweden will re-introduce it with July 1st.

looks like finland, sweden and austria had choice from usa: either you will enter nato or create your own strong army to fight russians

We did neither: We didn't join NATO and our army and army bases are falling apart, because we only spend 0.6% of GDP on the army. A slightly higher spending would be nice, but our army should first and foremost serve the population in natural disasters. And get rid of the Eurofighters.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: Today at 09:43:57 am
will kurz end conscription?

No. Why would he wanna do this ?

Kurz has said in the past that he prefers to keep conscription because it helps integration of foreigners and keeps the radical elements out (in a professional army, it's more likely that radicals volunteer, whereas the conscript army is a broad image of the population as a whole).

Besides, there was A) a referendum in Austria in 2013 in which 60% of voters wanted to keep the conscript army, and B) the FPÖ is also for keeping it and C) this is not an issue at all right now.

because he making "new ovp" and i was thinking he will end that relic of the past since austria is last country in eu with conscription, but ok thats internal topic in austria. ovp - fpo coalition would be good for balkans.

Finland and Greece also have conscription armies and Sweden will re-introduce it with July 1st.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: Today at 09:36:04 am
Chancellor Kern is in Egypt today, meeting with El-Sisi to talk about a refugee deal, economic opportunities for Austrian companies and the Middle-East situation.

He probably doesn't want Kurz to have all the international spotlight ...





http://derstandard.at/2000058206987/Kern-erhofft-sich-von-Besuch-in-Aegypten-neuen-Fluechtlingsdeal
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: Today at 09:21:42 am
will kurz end conscription?

No. Why would he wanna do this ?

Kurz has said in the past that he prefers to keep conscription because it helps integration of foreigners and keeps the radical elements out (in a professional army, it's more likely that radicals volunteer, whereas the conscript army is a broad image of the population as a whole).

Besides, there was A) a referendum in Austria in 2013 in which 60% of voters wanted to keep the conscript army, and B) the FPÖ is also for keeping it and C) this is not an issue at all right now.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: Today at 07:36:48 am
The new "dream-team" for the "ÖVP":



Köstinger & Kurz

Elisabeth Köstinger will manage the party and recruit the 50% women for the Kurz election list. Together with Axel Melchior (who was presented on Monday and who is also a close associate of Kurz) she will also manage the election campaign.

Asked if the new party colour is a sign of a ÖVP-FPÖ coalition, she denied it (but it's no secret that Kurz prefers ÖVP-FPÖ).
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: Today at 03:03:43 am
My final prediction now after all (shady) polls have been released:

49.9% Gianforte (R)
45.7% Quist (D)
  4.3% Wicks (L)
  0.1% Write-Ins
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: May 23, 2017, 12:52:05 pm
Wikipedia always lags behind a bit.

Köstinger was presented by Kurz as the new general secretary yesterday and will officially replace Amon tomorrow.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: May 23, 2017, 10:53:53 am
The economic platform of the FPÖ, which will be released in late June, was outlined in part today by Strache in Linz and many of their proposals are comparable with the demands of Kurz and the ÖVP.

The FPÖ wants to lower the high government spending from the current 46% to around 40% of GDP, by cutting administration and various subsidies. They also want no budget deficit, something that Austrian politicians basically never managed to achieve so far (contrary to Switzerland and Germany).

Strache also plans to hire Swiss and other foreign experts to weed out Austrian bureaucracy and find ways how to balance the budget.

Quote
"Sollte die FPÖ künftig Regierungsverantwortung tragen, wolle er die Budgetpolitik von ausländischen Experten, etwa aus der Schweiz, durchforsten lassen, so Strache."

Strache also plans a big tax cut for workers, paid for by the above-mentioned restructuring of subsidies, administrative and state reform. (In fact, the Austrian Court of Audit has found a lot of possible measures that could make the state more effective and less expensive).

The FPÖ's plan also rejects any form of new taxes, such as inheritance/death taxes, wealth taxes or robot taxes (the latter one because it would hurt employers, which the FPÖ wants to strenghten).

They also plan more incentives for foreign companies to move to Austria, more incentives for Austrian med students to remain in the country rather than moving abroad (mostly to Germany) and end the tax bracket creep by automatically adjusting it to inflation.

---

As you can see, their economic platform is almost identical to the Kurz/ÖVP-plans and the signs are now pointing to ÖVP-FPÖ after the election.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 23, 2017, 10:28:47 am
I have no clue what's going on, but I'm still sticking with an R-win by 2-6 points.
12  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: BREAKING: Manchester attack on: May 23, 2017, 10:21:15 am


Really disgusting, but good to see that people like Steve acted so bravely ...
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: May 23, 2017, 08:54:21 am
Right now, it's as if the SPÖVP coalition didn't blew up in the last 2 weeks ...

Chancellor Kern invites the leaders and ministers of the other 5 parties to a meeting on Tuesday, to keep working on the remaining agenda for this parliamentary year.

Amazing. First they f**k each other, then they play nice.

They virtually finalized the education reform plan today, with the backing of the Greens.

Good to see that they are still able to pass a couple things before the parliamentary summer recess, which starts in Mid-July.

The initiative to call early elections for October 15 will be voted on in parliament on July 13 (but it now looks as if all parties will vote for it).
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: May 23, 2017, 06:22:02 am
Chancellor Kern will fly to Egypt tomorrow to meet with Sisi and to the U.A.E. on Thursday to talk about the Middle-East, Syria and terror prevention.

Meanwhile Kurz talked at the above-mentioned OSCE anti-terror meeting today, in which he is the chair. He said that the Islamic Faith Communities (in Austria and elsewhere) need to step up their game significantly to prevent young Muslims from becoming terrorists and to teach a less-radical version of Islam.
15  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: If you could cast a vote for Austrian Chancellor on: May 23, 2017, 03:26:41 am
There might be another party on the ballot on Oct. 15, called "Der Wandel" (The Change), a far left-progressive party somewhere in between the Greens and KPÖ.

https://www.derwandel.at/democratic-modernity

Frontrunner could be Fayad Mulla:



They will have to collect signatures, so their run is not certain. Besides, they won't get much more than 1%, expect if they are running on a platform with the KPÖ again (like in the 2014 European elections).

But it would be an alternative for leftist voters, who think the Greens are too establishment and who think the KPÖ is too old-fashioned Communist and radical.
16  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: If you could cast a vote for Austrian Chancellor on: May 23, 2017, 03:14:05 am
Kern for me.
17  General Politics / Individual Politics / If you could cast a vote for Austrian Chancellor on: May 23, 2017, 03:12:13 am
Vote.

Kern = Social Democrat, center-left, pro-European, pro middle-class, pro-business, pro-minorities, pro-women, mixed on immigration

Kurz = Conservative, center-right, pro-European, pro business, mass-migration-critical

Strache = Far Right populist, anti-European, wants zero immigration or many deportations

Lunacek = Eco-Left, pro-European, strongly pro-immigration and pro-refugees, feminist and strongly pro-minorities (LGBT etc.)

Strolz = liberal, centrist, pro-European, pro business, pro-minorities, feminist

Lugar = (far) right-wing populist, anti-European, anti-immigration (pretty much like Strache)

Messner = Communist, populist, mixed on Europe, pro-minorities, feminist, anti-capitalist, strongly pro-middle and lower class, emphasis on cheap housing and rental/eviction advice for low-income people



(Strache, Kurz, Kern)



(Lunacek)



(Strolz, Messner)



(Lugar)
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: May 23, 2017, 02:44:24 am
After condemning the Manchester terror attack and comforting families on Twitter, Sebastian Kurz will chair the 2-day OSCE anti-terror meeting in Vienna:



http://www.krone.at/welt/kurz-gedanken-sind-bei-den-familien-der-opfer-vor-osze-konferenz-story-570722
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: May 23, 2017, 01:00:16 am
For the first time since before the migrant wave started in the fall of 2015, CDU/CSU-FDP now have a majority - while the Schulz train is heading off the cliff:



48% CDU/CSU-FDP
47% SPD-Greens-Left-AfD

55% CDU/CSU-FDP-AfD
40% SPD-Greens-Left
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: May 23, 2017, 12:26:58 am
I passed by Strache's facebook fan page and he ramped up attacks on Kurz. He is in grave despair as his party's number fell back to third place. This could spell the end of the possibility of a black-blue coalition.

I wouldn't say "grave despair", 26% is still a very good number for a far-right party like the FPÖ considering all the common-sense tough talk on migration and integration by Kurz in previous years. It remains to be seen if many FPÖ-voters really abandon the party and switch to Kurz or if they will stick on election day. This depends if Strache can successfully tie Kurz to the unpopular ÖVP and their governing record. But so far it seems especially a lot of younger former FPÖ-voters might end up voting for Kurz.
21  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: How would/will you have voted? on: May 22, 2017, 02:14:36 pm
-United Kingdom: Brexit Pro-Brexit
-United States: Presidential Donald Trump
-The Netherlands: Legislature VVD/PVV
-France: Presidential Marine Le Pen
-United Kingdom: Legislature Conservative
-France: Legislature National Front (or whatever it will become)
-Germany: Legislature CDU/AfD
-Italy: Legislature M5S
-Austria: Legislature FPÖ Team Stronach

I did more research into Team Stronach, and while I wouldn't be 100% opposed to FPÖ, Team Stronach seems better in my opinion.

No need to ride a dead horse (the TS will get about 0.5% of the vote in October). Besides, TS and the FPÖ are virtually the same. About 90% of their voters from 2013 will be absorbed by the FPÖ.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 22, 2017, 02:07:39 pm
Yeah, this is probably a 3-point race now.

A couple months ago, I thought R+8 to R+10. But Gianforte seems to be a weak candidate.

I wouldn't be surprised if Quist pulls this out on Thursday ...
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: May 22, 2017, 11:25:27 am
Sebastian Kurz installed Elisabeth Köstinger as the new ÖVP general secretary today.

Köstinger, currently a member of the European Parliament, is one of the closest associates of Kurz and also leader of the powerful Austrian farmers association.

24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: May 22, 2017, 11:09:13 am
Since Kern's 160-page "Plan A for Austria" is virtually the SPÖ's campaign manifesto, the focus now shifts to the other major parties. The SPÖ is still working on a "criteria catalogue" for a possible future coalition with the FPÖ. This one will probably be out during the summer.

During the weekend, I've read that the List Sebastian Kurz (also known as "ÖVP") will present their election platform in late August, as well as their team for the election (Kurz promised to overhaul the total current ÖVP-leadership team, as well as the party list by bringing in a lot of "young, dynamic, and 50% female fresh faces". He already started today with installing a new ÖVP general secretary (a close associate of Kurz in the JVP).

This means Kurz can now go submarine again for the next 3 months, do his job as foreign minister and stay largely out of domestic politics.

The FPÖ will release their economic election manifesto in late June.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: May 22, 2017, 09:19:11 am
I just noticed that turnout in snap elections was always higher so far than in the regular election before. And not only that: For the past 27 years, a regular term was always followed by a term with a snap election ...

1990: 83.6%

(regular 4-year term)

1994: 80.2%

(snap election term)

1995: 86.0%

(regular 4-year term)

1999: 80.4%

(snap election term)

2002: 84.3%

(regular 4-year term)

2006: 78.5%

(snap election term)

2008: 78.8%

(regular 5-year term)

2013: 74.9%

(snap election term)

2017: ? (probably 75-80%)
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