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September 21, 2014, 01:09:18 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics (Next: Vorarlberg state election - Sept. 21) on: Today at 11:50:15 am
The map was already depressing in 2009 and it remains depressing:



All the results from the latest state elections:

2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics (Next: Vorarlberg state election - Sept. 21) on: Today at 11:29:30 am
Voter streams 2009 => 2014 by party:

http://orf.at/wahl/vorarlberg14/#analysis/migration

NEOS got their voters mostly from the VP and non-voters.

The Greens even got some former FP-voters, but got many votes from the VP and non-voters.

The VP lost mostly to non-voters, the Greens and to the FP.

The FP lost mostly to the VP and non-voters.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics (Next: Vorarlberg state election - Sept. 21) on: Today at 11:20:58 am
The full SORA/ORF election day analysis (our version of an exit poll) is now online:

http://www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2014_LTW-Vbg_Wahlanalyse-Grafiken.pdf

http://www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2014_LTW-Vbg_Wahlanalyse.pdf
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics (Next: Vorarlberg state election - Sept. 21) on: Today at 11:03:28 am
"Exit" Poll details:

Vote by gender:



Vote by age:



Vote by gender/age (16-44 years old):



Vote by gender/age (45+ years old):



Direct vote for Governor:



Vote by broad profession (workers, white-collar emloyees, self-employed, retired):



Vote by education (regular schooling, apprenticeship, higher schools, high-school passed/university):



Has Vbg. changed for the better or worse since 2009 ? Or no change ? By party:



How do you see the future of the state ? (positive, negative, neither)



Most important campaign topics:

5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics (Next: Vorarlberg state election - Sept. 21) on: Today at 10:47:32 am
From the Vorarlberg "exit" poll:

Among Vorarlberg men aged 16-44, about 46% voted FP (!!!).

Among women in the same age group, the Greens came on top with 35%.

Workers voted FP with 53%.



I'll try to get the full results later.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics (Next: Vorarlberg state election - Sept. 21) on: Today at 10:45:14 am

It would be the 6th state government (out of 9) with the Green Party in it (only Lower Austria, Styria and Burgenland have no Greens in the government).

Do the Greens get any actual influence on environmental policies and infrastructure in these coalitions? 

Yes, the most important projects pushed by the Greens include the MaH in Vienna:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=180261.msg4083333#msg4083333

And a few speed limit regulations on highways (80 km/h or 100 km/h instead of 130 km/h) to lower emissions & particulate matter concentration for example in Tyrol and Salzburg which are heavily impacted by transit cargo transports.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MA-Rasmussen: Tied race on: Today at 10:27:57 am
CoakleyLOL.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics (Next: Vorarlberg state election - Sept. 21) on: Today at 10:24:18 am
What's next ?

Now that the VP has lost its absolute majority in Vbg., the 2 most likely coalitions are:

* VP-Greens
* VP-FP

...

* VP-SP is possible too, but would only have a 1-seat majority.
* VP-NEOS is not possible.

...

VP-Greens is the most likely outcome, because the Greens have gained votes while the FP lost.

It would be the 6th state government (out of 9) with the Green Party in it (only Lower Austria, Styria and Burgenland have no Greens in the government).
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics (Next: Vorarlberg state election - Sept. 21) on: Today at 10:11:53 am
I was watching Formula 1, so here's the statewide result for Vorarlberg:

41.83% VP (-8.96%)
23.46% FP (-1.66%)
17.08% Greens (+6.50%)
  8.79% SP (-1.23%)
  6.86% NEOS (+6.86%)
  0.63% WIR (+0.63%)
  0.49% CP (+0.49%)
  0.47% Pirates (+0.47%)
  0.40% M (+0.40%)

Seats:

16 VP (-4)
  9 FP (nc)
  6 Greens (+2)
  3 SP (nc)
  2 NEOS (+2)

Map (VP wins all cities, except 2 that were won by the FP):



Look at party strength by town here:

http://orf.at/wahl/vorarlberg14/#analysis
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics (Next: Vorarlberg state election - Sept. 21) on: Today at 09:54:15 am
So NEOS is basically the new LIF (meaning it will die out very quickly)?

Next year, 4 state elections take place in Burgenland, Styria, Upper Austria and Vienna.

Basically half of Austria will vote next year, which means these state elections will tell us more if NEOS is here to stay or not.

Maybe NEOS would have done better today if they had a more experienced politician rather than a newcomer (sounds strange, right ?). Usually newcomers are better than experienced politicians, but in the case of NEOS they picked a candidate who stumbled on a few issues and was heavily attacked by the VP and Green frontrunners. NEOS, in the beginning, had the advantage of not being taken seriously by the main parties but that changed during the EU elections and now in Vorarlberg. Now, the main parties take them seriously and try to take them out.

Next year, NEOS will also face problems in Upper Austria, Burgenland and Styria (where the main battle will be SP/VP vs. FP for 1st place, which will drown out NEOS). NEOS has a good chance in Vienna though.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics (Next: Vorarlberg state election - Sept. 21) on: Today at 07:02:23 am
1st VBG projection from the ORF:

41.3% VP
23.4% FP
17.1% Greens
  9.1% SP
  7.1% NEOS
  2.1% Others

The state should then be fully counted in the next 1-2 hours.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics (Next: Vorarlberg state election - Sept. 21) on: Today at 06:55:30 am
The liberal NEOS will definitely underperform their polling numbers (like I expected) and the Greens are doing much better (yay !).

Maybe there's even a dent for the FP at the end of the day ...
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics (Next: Vorarlberg state election - Sept. 21) on: Today at 06:50:55 am
1 important and big city has just finished counting (Lustenau):

VP         37,37 % (-11,88 %)
FP          29,52 % (-0,34 %)
GRNE      19,47 % (+9,36 %)
SP             5,75 % (-1,53 %)
NEOS           6,18 % (+6,18 %)
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics (Next: Vorarlberg state election - Sept. 21) on: Today at 06:37:59 am
First city of some relevant size from the Rhine-Valley reports (Hchst):

Massive losses for the VP (-20%)
Gains for the FP (+6%, with almost 30% support)
Strong gains for the Greens (+8%)
NEOS has only 6.5% there
SP gains 1.2%
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics (Next: Vorarlberg state election - Sept. 21) on: Today at 06:26:12 am
The SP-results in all the (so far counted) mountain-towns are hilarious:

1-3%
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics (Next: Vorarlberg state election - Sept. 21) on: Today at 06:22:38 am
The Greens will definitely have a strong result.

If they are already getting 10-12% in the mountainous farmer and tourism villages, then the urban and densely populated Rhine-Valley will push them to 15-20% statewide I guess.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics (Next: Vorarlberg state election - Sept. 21) on: Today at 06:17:48 am
28/96 cities already counted (but that's only 4.5% of eligible voters):

VP loses 8%+
FP loses 0.2%
Greens gain ca. 4%
SP loses 0.2%
NEOS gets ca. 6%
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics (Next: Vorarlberg state election - Sept. 21) on: Today at 06:13:58 am
Checking ORF's analysis page, turnout isn't actually all too bad (hitting 75-80% in the small towns and relatively stable or higher compared with 2009).

http://orf.at/wahl/vorarlberg14/#analysis
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics (Next: Vorarlberg state election - Sept. 21) on: Today at 06:05:32 am
First trends based on already counted small towns:

* VP loses absolute majority (like expected)
* FP results mixed so far
* Greens will gain
* NEOS enters state parliament
* SP remains weak
* small parties have no chance

The ORF will have a 1st projection at 2pm.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics (Next: Vorarlberg state election - Sept. 21) on: Today at 05:59:15 am
ORF 2 live stream.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics (Next: Vorarlberg state election - Sept. 21) on: Today at 05:47:11 am
Results are here:

http://orf.at/wahl/vorarlberg14

and here:

http://www.vorarlberg.at/wahlen/lt.asp?ergebnisse=vorarlberg

...

They start coming in at 1pm (in 15 minutes).

Today, most ballots will be counted, incl. ca. 90% of postal ballots (only the ca. 10% of postal ballots that are cast in another precinct than the own will be counted Tuesday).
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics (Next: Vorarlberg state election - Sept. 21) on: Today at 05:21:45 am
All polls in Vorarlberg close in 45 minutes !

Here's Governor Markus Wallner (VP) and family voting:



Plus a Vorarlberg voting booth:

23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What is the main purpose of Atlas Forum? on: Today at 02:19:21 am
Options 1, 2 and 3.

Option 4 is only for loons who don't have a real life ...
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics (Next: Vorarlberg state election - Sept. 21) on: Today at 01:53:51 am
The polls in Vorarlberg are now open and close at 1pm !



Here are the 2009 state election results and historical results:

25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you live in an Urban, Suburban, Exurban, or Rural Area? on: September 20, 2014, 12:40:48 pm
Rural.

In front of my house there are like 10 cows on a field and some horses and chickens.

300 meters away from the house the mountainous forest starts, which means if I eat chicken and put the meaty bones out over night, the foxes and wild cats will come and take it with them ...
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