Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 28, 2014, 05:36:23 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 1302
1  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: 1000+ riot police evict punks, anarchists & leftists from occupied Vienna house on: Today at 01:43:20 pm
Tender Branson succeed in something I never thought possible, making me support (political) squatters. The real estate company should end up paying for the police cleaning their sh**t.

Yepp, the real-estate company should definitely have to pay a big share of the police costs, because they all started it. Without their scare-tactics to invite the punks in the first place, they would have never created the mess.

The real FF are the old renter couple though, who stayed in the house on their cheap rental contracts, despite all the pressure from the company ... Smiley
2  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: 1000+ riot police evict punks, anarchists & leftists from occupied Vienna house on: Today at 01:36:46 pm
So who pays for this?  I'm sure the nutters are either one step away from actual money (ie, daddy is paying the way) or are destitute so no funds there.  The old couple is right out.  Since the real estate company invited the nutters in in the first place they should at least be paying a bit, but I'm guessing the tax payer is going to get boned as is the norm.

The "Kurier" newspaper estimates that the police operation will cost ca. 700.000€ (1 million $).

The taxpayer will usually have to pay this stuff, but I wouldn't rule out that this thing goes to court.
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: 1000+ riot police evict punks, anarchists & leftists from occupied Vienna house on: Today at 01:12:45 pm
The background of this thing is hilarious too:

3 years ago, the property owner (a real-estate agency) wanted to renovate and sell their property.

But 1 old retired couple refused to move out of the building.

Then the real-estate agency - no joke - invited the punks to move into their property to scare away the remaining old couple.

The old couple didn't move out though, but became supporters of the punks and left-wingers and even went shopping for them and provided them with stuff they needed.

So, the house was occupied for the past 3 years.

Now, with immigration to Vienna booming (last year, the city grew by 30.000 people), the real-estate prices went up like crap and the agency wants to badly renovate and sell it for a nice share.

They applied for eviction and the police removed them today, a process which lasted more than 12 hours, because the occupiers blocked the entry with stuff and also the first 2 floors of the building and threw stuff out of the window. The police had to remove all the blocked stuff and make their way into the 3rd floor, where they arrested all the occupiers in the last hours ... Tongue

Don't know though what happens with the old couple now ... Wink
4  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: 1000+ riot police evict punks, anarchists & leftists from occupied Vienna house on: Today at 12:52:06 pm
When the occupiers started to piss and - no joke - throw their sh*t out of the windows, the police decided to bring in their water cannons:

Quote
Besetzer warfen mit Fäkalien und urinierten aus Fenster

Kurz nach 10.00 Uhr setzte sich ein Panzerfahrzeug in Bewegung und riss die Barrikaden nieder, danach betraten auch hunderte Polizisten das Sperrgebiet. Aus den oberen Stockwerken des Gebäudes warfen die Besetzer mit Feder, Eiern, Farbe und Fäkalien. Von Letzteren wurden zahlreiche Beamte getroffen. Einer der Aktivisten hat aus dem Fenster uriniert. Um etwa 10.30 Uhr war der Weg zur versperrten Eingangstür freigeräumt, die Polizisten stellten dort ein tragbares Dachgerüst hin, um sich gegen Beschuss von oben zu schützen. Außerdem skandierten die Besetzer unter anderem "Ihr könnt nach Hause gehen".

5  General Politics / International General Discussion / 1000+ riot police evict punks, anarchists & leftists from occupied Vienna house on: Today at 12:41:59 pm
1 police officer was moderately injured when an occupier dropped a TV-set onto him from a window.

Pictures:







More pics:

http://derstandard.at/2000003621622/Pizzeria-Anarchia-Die-Raeumung-in-Bildern
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Hey on: Today at 12:30:30 pm
Hey, good to see you around.

Wink
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian landtag elections 1929-1932 on: Today at 12:17:19 pm
INNSBRUCK by the way voted 1931 as follows:

SD 41.1, TVP 33.7, GD 17.3, NSDAP (Hitler) 4.1, WomenP. 2.5, KPÖ 1.3

So in 1933 the Soc.Dem. lost 14%, TVP 8% - difficult question to whom...

The NSDAP (like the FPÖ now) used to be a big vacuum cleaner and sucked in votes from all parties (basically all the votes from the Greater-German parties naturally), and if you look at other state elections about equally (if not more) from the CSP and the SDAPÖ:

In the 1932 Vienna state election (according to Hänisch), only 1% (!!!) of SDAPÖ-voters from 1930 crossed over to the NSDAP, while 25% of the CSP-voters did and up to 51% of the Landbund.

...

In the 1932 Lower Austria election, the dominant CSP lost 12% relative to the 1927 state election, while the SDAPÖ only lost 3%.

The NSDAP gained 14% between the 2 elections, suggesting that they benefitted from the Christian-Socials much more than from the Social Democratic Worker's Party.

...

In the 1932 Salzburg state election, the CSP lost 10% relative to the 1927 state elections, while the SDAPÖ lost 6%. The NSDAP went from 0% to 21%. The Great-Germans went from 12% to 2%.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian landtag elections 1929-1932 on: Today at 12:02:30 pm
Thank you very much, Georg Ebner.

Interesting here is the strength of the Ständebund in Schwaz and Reutte, while the center of the (extreme) far-right has always been and still is the Bezirk Kufstein, the only district home to two major industrial cities, and a relative small (for Tirol) rural agricultural area. I can only explain that with dissatisfaction with the TVP in the remote valleys like the upper Zillertal or the upper Außerfern (How would you translate "-Hinteres" into English? Upper doesn't seem that great a choice...)

Maybe:

backmost
hindmost
rear
rearmost

Wink
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: Nate Cohn tweet: YouGov polls show strong numbers for GOP on: Today at 11:57:27 am
These polls are way too white, even for midterms.

Remember that the Excel-file with the crosstabs only shows the unweighted numbers for race etc., which means the weighted figures are likely less white than what is shown in there.
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Which of these countries legalize gay marriage before 2020? (poll) on: Today at 10:00:05 am
And Sweden should probably be Finland ...
11  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Which of these countries legalize gay marriage before 2020? (poll) on: Today at 09:52:24 am
You have left out Austria, which could legalize it fully after 2018 with a Red-Green-Pink coalition.
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What are you listening to right now? II on: Today at 05:43:56 am
M83 - We Own The Sky
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NYT/CBS/YouGov crosstabs for every Senate and Governors race. on: Today at 05:24:18 am
The polls were all done July 5-24.

This would mean Walsh was trailing by 16 even before his scandal became known, not really in line with other recent polls that showed the race tightening.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NYT/CBS/YouGov crosstabs for every Senate and Governors race. on: Today at 03:51:38 am
I think that it is better take the data from the excel crosstabs.
An example. In the NYT graphics, Risch leads Mitchell in ID 65-31, but in the crosstabs, Risch leads 63-30-1. In the graphics, Ernst leads 48-47, but in the crosstabs Ernst leads 46-45-2. And these are only two examples, we have many other cases ...

Yes, rounding problems.

I used the "sum"-tool in Excel for the exact numbers here:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=196305.msg4247062#msg4247062
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / CA: Gravis Marketing: Gov. Brown (D) up 17 on: Today at 03:27:27 am
New Poll: California Governor by Gravis Marketing on 2014-07-24

Summary: D: 52%, R: 35%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NYT/CBS/YouGov crosstabs for every Senate and Governors race. on: Today at 02:26:43 am
All the YouGov polls will be entered in the database?

I'm too lazy to enter 80 polls ... Tongue

If someone else wants to enter it though, do it.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: Nate Cohn tweet: YouGov polls show strong numbers for GOP on: Today at 01:58:44 am
Full Governor results:

AK: 56-29 Parnell (R)
AL: 59-31 Bentley (R)
AR: 48-45 Hutchinson (R)*
AZ: 46-34 Jones (R)
CA: 57-33 Brown (D)
CO: 47-47
CT: 48-41 Foley (R)*
FL: 48-43 Scott (R)
GA: 50-42 Deal (R)
HI: 40-38 Aiona (R)*
IA: 51-40 Branstad (R)
ID: 56-34 Otter (R)
IL: 46-43 Rauner (R)*
KS: 52-40 Brownback (R)
MA: 52-36 Coakley (D)
MD: 52-40 Brown (D)
ME: 52-39 Michaud (D)*
MI: 46-44 Snyder (R)
MN: 53-37 Dayton (D)
NE: 49-41 Ricketts (R)
NH: 53-38 Hassan (D)
NM: 52-43 Martinez (R)
NV: 57-32 Sandoval (R)
NY: 56-32 Cuomo (D)
OH: 49-44 Kasich (R)
OK: 49-40 Fallin (R)
OR: 52-42 Kitzhaber (D)
PA: 53-39 Wolf (D)*
RI: 48-24 Taveras (D)
SC: 56-37 Haley (R)
SD: 66-28 Daugaard (R)
TN: 55-32 Haslam (R)
TX: 54-37 Abbott (R)
VT: 52-27-15 Shumlin (D)
WI: 48-46 Walker (R)
WY: 53-25 Mead (R)

* = pickup
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: Nate Cohn tweet: YouGov polls show strong numbers for GOP on: Today at 01:29:22 am
Yeah, Brownback SHOULD be safer than everyone on that list, but he definitely isn't...

Wish I could believe this, but there are just too many flaws. For example, Sullivan gets 0% of the Democratic vote against Begich for AK-SEN...I find that difficult to believe.

KS could just be trolling around a bit: It really depends how much support Browncrook gets among Republicans. If they vote like SUSA says, Davis wins. If they come home to him in the election, then he wins ...
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NYT/CBS/YouGov crosstabs for every Senate and Governors race. on: Today at 01:05:04 am
Here's an overview of their Senate results:

20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NYT/CBS/YouGov crosstabs for every Senate and Governors race. on: Today at 12:56:00 am
From what I remember, YouGov wasn't really that bad in both 2008 and 2012 with their state polls:

http://cdn.yougov.com/r/1/2012%20Election%20results%20table_Actual_YouGovLV.pdf

But some of these polls here make not much sense, for example Maine-Gov. (which has Cutler in single-digits, or SD - which doesn't even include Pressler who has 15%+ in other polls).

Warner only up 10, the same as Shaheen ? Unlikely.

YouGov is polling 3 more waves until November, so things might change a bit until then.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: Nate Cohn tweet: YouGov polls show strong numbers for GOP on: Today at 12:54:48 am
From what I remember, YouGov wasn't really that bad in both 2008 and 2012 with their state polls:

http://cdn.yougov.com/r/1/2012%20Election%20results%20table_Actual_YouGovLV.pdf

But some of these polls here make not much sense, for example Maine-Gov. (which has Cutler in single-digits, or SD - which doesn't even include Pressler who has 15%+ in other polls).

YouGov is polling 3 more waves until November, so things might change a bit until then.
22  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Ebola Thread on: July 27, 2014, 11:57:57 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCbfMkh940Q
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian landtag elections 1929-1932 on: July 27, 2014, 12:03:29 pm
Thanks for your research Tenderbranson and Georgebner.  The 1933 Innsbruck elections are fascinating.  The Austrian Nazis must have been benefiting from the prestige of the new Hitler regime in Germany and probably new funding from it.  Had a national election taken place that spring it seems logical to assume that the Austrian Nazis would have won a plurality perhaps, but no majority in the National parliament.

This was one factor, but the most important factor was certainly the economic depression that hit Austria in 1933/34, in the wake of the global economic depression. The important Austrian banks went bankrupt and unemployment rose to 25-30% in summer 1934, when the Innsbruck city council elections took place.

The situation was similar to the Greek situation after 2008, just that the Austrians turned to the Nazis, while the Greeks supported the far-left SYRIZA.

Interestingly, Hitler tried to strangle Austrian tourism to death by imposing the 1000-mark penalty on German tourists who wanted to vacation in Austria, so that the Austro-Fascist regime folds. But despite this, a lot of unsatisfied/unemployed Austrians wanted to merge with Nazi-Germany (remember that unemployment in Germany was already going down again while Austrian unemployment peaked a bit later. Many Austrians thought Hitler would provide them with plenty of jobs as well).
24  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: How do you pronounce the word "cretin"? on: July 27, 2014, 10:04:59 am
Like the French:

"Krä-töö"

You mean with a nasalized "i"? I thought nobody was able to pronounce nasals besides the French. Tongue

Yepp, it's not really that hard.
25  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: How do you pronounce the word "cretin"? on: July 27, 2014, 09:32:42 am
Like the French:

"Krä-töö"
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 1302


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines