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December 08, 2016, 01:24:04 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: Today at 11:21:09 am
The election will be certified next Thursday and if nobody challenges the result within one week it will become official on Dec. 22
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: Today at 01:26:33 am
Funny "Daily Show" clip about the election:

http://www.cc.com/video-clips/7xxngr/the-daily-show-with-trevor-noah-austria-votes-against-nationalism

"Right-wing populism is sooooo 1930iiiiies."

Wink
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: Today at 01:24:46 am
   Do we have the differences in the vote among non married vs married women?  In the US that's always a huge gap with married women much more likely to vote GOP.

Nope, that wasn't asked in the EWS.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 07, 2016, 09:11:26 am
A district trend map between the two runoffs would be nice ...

For example Zell am See (where I live), trended a lot to VdB:

Hofer won the district with 58% in May, but only with 52.6% now - a swing of 5.4% for VdB.

That compares with only a 3.5% swing Austria-wide for VdB.

So, Zell am See had a 1.9 point trend to VdB ...
5  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Partial-birth abortion: good or bad idea? on: December 07, 2016, 09:01:53 am
Virtually homicide.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 07, 2016, 04:52:55 am
UKIPs explanation about why Hofer lost:

Austrians have not been raped and murdered enough yet by foreigners.

http://mobil.derstandard.at/2000048920739/Farage-Intimus-Hofer-verlor-weilOesterreicher-noch-nicht-genug-Vergewaltigungen-und
7  General Politics / Individual Politics / Opinion of Austria's thoughtful, mature, radical-centre women on: December 07, 2016, 02:06:29 am
The counterparts of the "angry NH women" ...

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=221414.msg5424204#msg5424204
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 07, 2016, 01:48:26 am
An article about how Austria's women propelled VdB to victory:



Quote
It was the women that won it. According to Sora (Institute for Social Research and Consulting), while a whopping 56 per cent of men (and 85 per cent of blue-collar workers) plumped for the Freedom Party’s Hofer, only 38 per cent of women did. In other words, 62 per cent of Austrian women who voted opted for Alexander Van der Bellen, the 72-year-old, retired economist backed by Austria’s Green Party.

Yes, there are some who wonder how women cope in these either/or situations, but since the serious Germans mentioned above believe these women may have saved Europe for a while, we should probably try to tease out what this tells us.

Some commentators put it down to an inclusive viral video campaign, featuring female protagonists such as “Gertrude”, an 89-year-old Holocaust survivor from Vienna. Or to Hofer’s more aggressive tone in the TV debates. Or maybe it was that Nigel Farage told Fox News that Hofer would seek a referendum to take Austria out of the EU – oops in a country where two thirds are happy with the EU. (Farage, with fabulous irony, was ordered by Hofer “not to interfere in Austria’s internal affairs”).

Or perhaps it was Van der Bellen’s “authenticity”: his “authentic, unconventional” appearance that played a key role in swinging the vote, according to a political scientist quoted in the Guardian. Van der Bellen is not a career politician and stayed true to his “unpolished” self, said Richard Heinisch. “Sunday’s vote has shown us that, while there is potential for a protest vote, it doesn’t always have to go to the far right. There is such a thing as a radical centre.”

It is an interesting concept. But while it’s difficult to discern where that protest lies in the Van de Bellen vote, it does suggest that Austrian women are independent of mind. In the US election, there was an inference that rural white women had ultimately swung Trumpwards in sympathy for their menfolk and voted for the “authentic” crotch-grabber bristling with shruggy ignorance, machismo and pledges to build the wall and drain the swamp and bring back traditional manufacturing industries. Perhaps the Austrian women were protesting against all such types and concluded that Van der Bellen is a genuine, decent authentic.

Why the majority of Austria’s men opted for a man like Hofer is another question. Austria is in the world’s 14 top richest countries with less than six per cent unemployment. Life is pretty good, by all accounts. Yet, a political right-wing extremist managed to pick up nearly half the vote, which suggests that nationalist flag-waving and xenophobia are not necessarily the product of rust-belt style poverty or mass unemployment.

Back in Brexit land, it is worth noting that the sexes were broadly agreed on how they voted in the referendum – all, that is, apart from the 18- to 24-year-olds, who were overwhelmingly for Remain. But while eight out of 10 young women were Remainers, according to Statista. com, their male peers were around 20 points behind them.

Mind the women, boys. In every sense.

http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/kathy-sheridan-the-women-of-austria-may-have-saved-europe-1.2895161

Also interesting:

69% of young women (between 16 and 29 years) voted for VdB, but only 47% of young men.

Also: women with a higher school degree voted VdB with 82-18 (compared to 72-28 among men with a higher degree). Among women without a degree, it was 52-48 VdB, but among men without a degree it was 68-32 Hofer ...
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 06, 2016, 05:31:26 pm
I guess many people in the rural areas, ESPECIALLY in the tourism-dominated western states, also re-considered for VdB because of what a Hofer-win would mean to tourism: It could have created a bad image abroad and tourists would have stayed away.

Did Austria's tourism sector get any noticeable hit after the FPÖ entered government in 2000?

not a fair comparison cause of the EU sanctions.

I'm still genuinely curious to know.

A look at the Statistical Yearbook 2017 reveals that tourism in general went up between 2000 and 2006, but mostly due to domestic (= Austrian) tourists vacationing somewhere in the country. In the 6 years, stays from foreign tourists in Austria stagnated. They went up before 2000 and also up again after 2006.

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/publications_services/statistisches_jahrbuch/index.html

So, the FPÖ in government might have had some effects on foreigners vacationing here - but other factors might also be possible for the stagnation.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italian Constitutional Referendum, 12/04/2016 on: December 06, 2016, 03:26:24 pm
Results map:

% voting "No"

11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 06, 2016, 01:38:38 pm
Official final results, with all postal ballots counted:

53.8% VdB (+3.5%)
46.2% Hofer

Turnout: 74.2% (+1.5%)

http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at
I was at a restaurant a while back, and there was something odd about the waiter's name on the receipt, which caused me to ask what his name was (I can't remember what struck me as odd).

But anyhow he said that his last name was Van Something, and that it was Dutch. He then offered that it had actually been Von Something, but that an ancestor (perhaps his great-grandfather had ended up in the Netherlands after World War II and changed the name, and subsequently immigrated to the United States. He also said it was a family secret that the ancestor had done some bad things during WWII - he didn't provide details, and said it was not a source of family pride.

So I was wondering about Van der Bellen. I found the answer in the Wikipedia.

So my question does his name have any impact on Austrian electoral perceptions? (e.g. that he isn't really Austrian, etc.?)



Netherlands was part of the Hapsburg Empire, at a point.

From what I have seen, the FPÖ (or better, some people within the party) attacked VdB's father for being a secret Nazi or Nazi aide.

But nobody ever attacked VdB himself about his citizenship or "Austrian-ness" (like the GOP did with Obama after he won).

In fact, the migration background of VdB's parents (his father being a Russian and his mother an Estonian) might have helped him among left-wing circles: He often referred to himself as a "refugee child" (his family settled in Tyrol after WW2), knowing firsthand the struggles of refugees and people in need.
12  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Dumbest Country of 2016 (REVISED) on: December 06, 2016, 01:28:56 pm
None of them really, but if I had to choose it would be the US because they elected Trump.

Austria would be 4th here, because the first runoff may have been thrown out by the Court due to bad intentions from the FPÖ ("sore losers"), but the long-term effect for democracy and vote counting/election handling will be very positive for the coming elections: The Court ruling and the FPÖ challenge exposed some flaws in the election system which were now fixed and future elections will be cleaner and fairer and better conducted than ever before.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 06, 2016, 01:21:27 pm
The APA (Austrian Press Agency) page is now fully updated, incl. maps down to the city level:

http://visual.apa.at/presidential_2sw

Above the map it says "1. Stichwahl" and "2. Stichwahl", which means you can watch the results of the May runoff and the December runoff.

If you click on "Gemeinde", it will show town results.

"Bezirke" = Districts

"Bundesländer" = States

If you click on "Hofer" below the map, it will show Hofer's strength by admin. division

Same for "VdB".

"Wählerwechsel" means which towns, districts, states have flipped to VdB between the two runoffs (2 towns actually flipped over to Hofer, lol).

Below that, there's a voter stream analysis for the May and December runoff.

At the bottom, turnout figures for all 3 rounds.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 06, 2016, 06:06:07 am
Official final results, with all postal ballots counted:

53.8% VdB (+3.5%)
46.2% Hofer

Turnout: 74.2% (+1.5%)

http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 06, 2016, 12:26:23 am
VdB's results among postal voters were so good (2/3 of the vote) that he'll likely get close to 54% overall (unlike the 53.3% that was predicted).

8/9 states have released their final results yesterday and only 1 district in the state of Tyrol will continue counting today. Innsbruck suburbs had the biggest amount of postal ballots returned (12.000) and officials there said counting quality trumps speed.

A final Austrian result will be presented at 1pm today.

http://mobil.derstandard.at/2000048835107/Van-der-Bellen-erweitert-Vorsprung-mit-Briefwahl-in-Vorarlberg-und
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 05, 2016, 02:34:29 pm
Final Upper Austria results (incl. postal ballots):

55.3% VdB (+4.0)
44.7% Hofer (-4.0)

Turnout: 75.1% (+1.6)

http://wahl.land-oberoesterreich.gv.at
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 05, 2016, 02:22:16 pm
Final Vienna results (incl. postal ballots):

65.7% VdB (+2.4)
34.3% Hofer (-2.4)

Turnout: 71.8% (+2.1)

https://www.wien.gv.at/wahlergebnis/en/BP164/index.html
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 05, 2016, 02:15:19 pm
VdB turned Salzburg around ...

Final Salzburg State results (incl. postal ballots):

52.0% VdB
48.0% Hofer

Turnout: 74.4%

Postal ballots alone were 68.6% for VdB (incl. mine) and 31.4% Hofer.

(May runoff)

52.8% Hofer
47.2% VdB

Turnout: 72.8%

A swing of 4.8 points to VdB.

https://www.salzburg.gv.at/20003stat/Wahlen/bpw/index.htm
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Official Certificates of Ascertainment on: December 05, 2016, 01:58:05 pm
MI now has submitted their certificate as well, even though there will be a recount ...
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 05, 2016, 01:51:30 pm
As I have posted a few weeks ago, postal vote counting will be very careful today because of the Court ruling (this election was probably one of the cleanest on the planet ever), so some states/districts might continue counting tomorrow with final results then.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 05, 2016, 01:26:28 pm
5 of the 9 states have already counted their postal votes and released final results.

The 4 remaining states are: Tyrol, Carinthia, Lower Austria and Burgenland.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italian Constitutional Referendum, 12/04/2016 on: December 04, 2016, 02:30:53 pm
If we had the same opening times as Italy, we'd probably have 80% turnout today ... Tongue

For pete's sake, many towns around here already close at noon or 1pm !

I really wish Austria had universal opening and closing times (8am to 6pm).
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 04, 2016, 02:21:10 pm
Election weekend survey of Austrian voters from SORA ("Exit poll"):

In English

http://www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2016_Revote_Elections-Federal-President_Charts.pdf

In German (more data)

http://www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2016_BP-Wiederholung_Grafiken-Wahltagsbefragung.pdf
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 04, 2016, 02:10:20 pm
Condolences to Tender. Maybe next time buddy. Smiley

Don't worry, I voted for VdB twice ... Wink
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 04, 2016, 02:07:13 pm
The election day vote is now fully counted:

http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at

Turnout: 64.6% (but without postal votes, which are going to be counted tomorrow)

708.000 postal ballots were requested, about 620.000 were returned (I guess). May had a 86% return rate, I guess it will be 88% this time.

That means final turnout will be anywhere between 73.5% and 74.5%
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