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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump Campaign pushing ahead with its plan to win NY on: Today at 02:09:39 pm
LOLz.

He'll easily lose 60-35 there.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 2 Oct. 2016) on: Today at 02:04:57 pm
In a weird series of events it turns out that the slogan was first used by the FPO in 1973, not by Klestil.



"(Political) Power needs control" is a relatively common slogan to use, so I guess it was used already before 1973 by some candidate/party ...
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 2 Oct. 2016) on: Today at 01:56:27 pm
Here are both of Hofer's new posters:



"Power needs control."

(that is targeted against the SPVP-government, which Hofer wants to "control" as President)



"Austria needs security."
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 2 Oct. 2016) on: Today at 09:14:32 am
Hofer has revealed his new posters. He will be using the same slogan Thomas Klestil used in 1992..



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Norbert-Hofer-kopiert-Klestil-Slogan/248777792


Meanwhile Tender,

Am I mistaken or do you live in Zell am See?

I read in the news today that some Arabs were very nice to a Police officer, so much so that they bit him, spat on him and kicked him.. Also they threw rocks at a bank, because they didn't like one of the employees.


I'd say Hofer's design is better but VdB's messages are better.

On the Arabs: Roll Eyes
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-St. Leo: Clinton leads by 14! on: August 23, 2016, 11:53:53 am
Is Rep. Alex Sink still winning against Jolly by 10 ?

Or Gov. Charlie Crist against Scott by 5 ?

St. Leo is a notorious junk pollster.
6  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: If you were living in Austria ... on: August 23, 2016, 10:56:06 am
Let's just stop for a moment and consider this suggestion that police forcibly remove clothing from women

Police has every right to forcefully remove a veil from a person's face, if they are unwilling to remove it themselves for an ID check. Police need to know who they are dealing with. That counts for all people, not just Muslims, but also protesters etc.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 2 Oct. 2016) on: August 23, 2016, 10:49:00 am
  Fascinating that the term Oxit is now in use in an actual political poster.  Also interesting is the poster "for our well-loved Austria", sounds more like what Hofer would use.  I'm thinking VDB should have a poster saying, "for a more diverse, more multi-cultural Austria" as he stands for that much more than Hofer does.

"... vielgeliebtes sterreich" is actually a verse from the national anthem. So I guess that's why.

Also, VdB continues to use the "homeland" card, something that is typically used by the FP. By using the homeland, they are not leaving the FP their whole traditional playingfield - indicating that the Greens care about the homeland too (just in a different way) ...
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 2 Oct. 2016) on: August 23, 2016, 08:53:47 am
This story is almost unknown to people outside of Vienna, but the Constitutional Court did not only rule the Presidential runoff invalid and to be repeated, but also the city council election in Vienna's 2nd district (Leopoldstadt) from last fall.

The vote will be repeated on September 18.

Leopoldstadt is an SP-stronghold, but the match for second place was extremely tight between the Greens and the FP:

38.6% SP
22.2% Greens
22.1% FP
  7.1% VP
  5.7% NEOS
  2.8% ANDAS

https://www.wien.gv.at/wahl/NET/BV151/BV151-202.htm

...

While city council elections are a very localized political thing, it could nonetheless serve as a trial balloon for the Presidential election, if for example the FP gains and the Greens lose relative to the original vote.

The Greens have already started their poster campaign there, using the (in)famous quote from Norbert Hofer (FP) during the Presidential campaign: "You will wonder what kind of things will be possible."





The poster reads:

"The ones who are not going to vote will wonder what kind of things will be possible."
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 2 Oct. 2016) on: August 23, 2016, 08:37:01 am
Team VdB out with their runoff re-vote poster campaign:



"Our President. For the reputation of Austria."



"Stronger together. No to the Auxit."



"For our well-loved Austria."



"Reasonable decision-making. Reliability instead of extremes."



"2 October: Vote Van der Bellen. More than ever."
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Roanoke College: Clinton +16 in Virginia on: August 23, 2016, 08:30:13 am
It is also known as a the Roajoke poll, because they had Romney winning VA by 10 a few days before the election.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Third Party ballot access status update on: August 23, 2016, 04:46:48 am
Johnson/Weld (L) are now on the ballot in 41 states + DC.

https://www.lp.org/2016-presidential-ballot-access-map

Stein/Baraka (G) are on the ballot in 31 states + DC. They have filed enough signatures in another 6 states so far and 7 states have deadlines coming in the next days/weeks.

In 6 states, they will definitely not be on the ballot (GA, NC, NV, IN, OK and SD).

http://www.jill2016.com/ballot_access

Castle/Bradley (C) are on the ballot in 23 states now, with a chance at another 7.

https://www.constitutionparty.com/get-involved/election-central/ballot-access
12  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: If you were living in Austria ... on: August 23, 2016, 01:15:30 am
Tender...the entire second half of the original article you posted is dedicated to why a ban is an awful idea. If the niqab is a symbol of female oppression (which, on balance, it is - which doesn't mean it can't be worn by some women of their own choosing), will banning it liberate these women? No, their husbands or family will simply ban them from going outside at all, withdraw them from school and isolate them further. There is such a thing as a parallel society in (small parts of) Austria, and something like this is just going to widen the gap further and strengthen the narrative of extremists. That is before we even get into the issues of personal freedom and the state targeting a particular religious group.

Anyway, as someone who actually lives in an area where I regularly (as in most days) see women wearing niqab on the street, how on earth would this even be enforced? Are we going to have police patrolling the streets just for this? Clothing inspectors? (Actually, to the French here, how are things done over with you? Though IIRC the number of Islamic women wearing niqab is far smaller in France.)

And finally, it should be noted that Tender has massively exaggerated the story. Sebastian Kurz, Foreign Minister, VP rising star and noted human turd proposed a burka a few days ago. The only SP politician to respond so far has been the chairman of the parliamentary group, Andreas Schieder, who proposed this trade-off. No indication so far that a) this is the official position of the SP or b) the VP is willing to accept it. If Kurz were too support this deal, he would make himself highly unpopular with the VP old guard - not ideal when you're trying to become leader in a party where they still have a lot of influence.

Oh, there are easily enough measures that could be taken to enforce it: The police already has the power to forcefully remove the facial veil of a woman for IDing purposes. But the woman shouldn't really be the target of these laws, but the patriarchalic, fundamentalist male turds (yes, these are the real turds, not Kurz) behind these women. If they order "their" women to remain home, their welfare should be cut to zero - or they could face prison, for repeat offending and non-compliance. Or deportation, the best option.

If the will to enforce it is there, it can be done. Not wiped away with the usual excuses ...

I also find it funny that there are so many self-styled proponents of women's rights on this forum from the Left, but when it comes to actual laws they are being pussy about it - because they want to shield their beloved Muslims (= their future Leftist voters ...)
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Gravis Marketing (national poll): Clinton+8 (and +4) on: August 23, 2016, 12:59:46 am
lol 54%, wow

Gravis never has undecideds for their national poll, which is pretty European.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Gravis Marketing (national poll): Clinton+8 (and +4) on: August 23, 2016, 12:56:31 am
I wonder how long Breitbart is willing to use Gravis as their polling partner when they repeatedly show such awful numbers for their beloved Trump ...
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Gravis Marketing (national poll): Clinton+8 (and +4) on: August 23, 2016, 12:51:28 am
54% Clinton
46% Trump

46% Clinton
42% Trump
  8% Johnson
  5% Others

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/20160817_US_1.pdf
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton+6 in OH, IA very close on: August 21, 2016, 09:42:15 am
Wow, looks like the race is shifting in Clinton's direction if those Ohio numbers are true. Fantastic news!

In the 3-poll average, Hillary now leads by 4 (which is well within the MoE).

But as long as CO and VA are above average for her, she should be OK.
Glad to see Tender is still bending logic and reason to create a horserace where there is none.

I'm just cautioning you guys not to have blind trust in these state polls ...
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton+6 in OH, IA very close on: August 21, 2016, 09:40:09 am
Wow, looks like the race is shifting in Clinton's direction if those Ohio numbers are true. Fantastic news!

In the 3-poll average, Hillary now leads by 4 (which is well within the MoE).

Remember that there were polls in Oct. 2004, which had Kerry ahead in OH by 6 (and he lost).

But as long as CO and VA are above average for her, she should be OK.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / CBS/YouGov: Clinton+6 in OH, IA very close on: August 21, 2016, 09:30:19 am


https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/08/21/cbs-battleground-tracker-ohio-iowa
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / NC-Gravis Marketing: Trump+1, Clinton+1 on: August 21, 2016, 09:05:29 am
39% Trump
38% Clinton
10% Johnson
  2% Stein (not on the ballot)

44% Clinton
43% Trump

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 723 registered voters across North Carolina. The poll was conducted from August 15th through the 17th and has a margin of error of 3.6% at the 95% confidence level. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls were conducted using automated telephone calls, internet panels of cell phone respondents, and weighted by voting patterns.

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-north-carolina-polling-2
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / SC-Gravis Marketing: Trump+4 on: August 21, 2016, 09:03:40 am
41% Trump
37% Clinton
  7% Johnson
  3% Stein

46% Trump
42% Clinton

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 768 registered voters across South Carolina. The poll was conducted from August 15th to the 17th and has a margin of error of 3.5% at the 95% confidence level. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls were conducted using automated telephone calls and online responses internet panels of cell phone respondents and weighted by voting patterns.

http://gravismarketing.com/news/current-south-carolina-polling
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / AK-Alaska Dispatch News/Ivan Moore: Trump+9, Johnson @ 16% support on: August 21, 2016, 06:30:56 am
Sadly, it's an old poll:

Quote
In June, the Alaska Dispatch News commissioned a poll from Alaska Survey and Research, a firm operated by Ivan Moore of Anchorage.

The results of that poll were never published by the ADN. In a four-way race among Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Hillary Clinton, Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Moore found 39.4 percent of registered Alaska voters supporting Donald Trump. For Clinton, the support was 30.4 percent. Johnson was a strong third at 15.6 percent.

I was surprised Johnson was as high as he was, Moore said by phone. At the time we did the survey, I think Johnsons national polling average in a four-way (race) was about 7 percent.

http://juneauempire.com/state/2016-08-21/third-party-first-pick-gary-johnson-addresses-alaskan-issues-interview
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Morning Consult weekly poll: Clinton+6 (and +3) on: August 21, 2016, 05:24:42 am
44-38 Clinton/Trump

39-36-8-4 Clinton/Trump/Johnson/Stein

The Morning Consult surveys polled 2,001 voters on Aug. 16-17 and Aug. 18-20, respectively, for a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points on each poll.

https://morningconsultintelligence.com/media/mc/160807_crosstabs_trend_v2_KD.pdf
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 2 Oct. 2016) on: August 21, 2016, 05:02:15 am
Your post makes no sense ...
Just like yours then. :cunteyes:

I was referring to the second half of your post
he badly needs to draw additional non-voters to the polls in this VdB-stronghold.
Why? No part of this sentence makes sense. Hofer doesn't need either voters in Vienna or non-voters more than voters anywhere else. Now this may, on the face of it, appear pedantic - but it really, really isn't. So often (and that, not this particular post, is what this is about), what you post in this thread is, to use a phrase, "not even wrong" - it's just meaningless. That, or conventional wisdom while trying to sound like some American pundit. And, maybe I'm being silly, but I come here for proper discussion and analysis and I'm afraid it does grate a wee bit.

Anyway, [/rant].

If you are not content with what I post, feel free to post your own analysis instead but don't discredit my content, when I'm responsible for 99% of it on this thread.

And YES, Hofer needs additional voters in Vienna if he wants to win the election - because it's likely that VdB will run a campaign that is more targeted for the rural areas this time (he also received more money so far for better poster coverage in rural areas).
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 2 Oct. 2016) on: August 21, 2016, 01:00:48 am
This could also help Hofer in the re-vote, because he badly needs to draw additional non-voters to the polls in this VdB-stronghold.

This makes not the slightest bit of sense, and is only the latest example of you treating Austrian politics as some kind of tribute act to the United States of America. We don't have some kind of electoral college, nor, for that matter, Governors, conventions, or precincts. Please stop. It's a bit like that 18 year old I met recently who couldn't stop talking about Bernie Sanders but had never heard of Christian Kern or the Nationalrat.

Your post makes no sense ...

How is the fee increase and the recent announcement from the government about the paltry 0.8% increase in pensions next year not going to help Hofer win some additional protest voters ?
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What do you think the previous poster thinks of you? on: August 20, 2016, 12:21:35 pm
That I'm a fictional person from a fictional country ("Wurstland").
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