Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2015, 08:07:25 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 1410
1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: IA-InsiderAdvantage: Walker opens massive lead, Carson 2nd on: March 24, 2015, 03:20:21 pm
How accurate is this firm?

Just checked 2008. They had one of the best IA caucus polls back then (Obama+1 and Huck+6).
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: IA-InsiderAdvantage: Walker opens massive lead, Carson 2nd on: March 24, 2015, 03:17:26 pm
How accurate is this firm?

Depends.

For the 2012 IA caucus on the GOP side they produced a good final poll.

In 2014, they only polled GA and had Perdue winning by 3 [won by 8].
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-PPP: Hillary leads all Pubs on: March 24, 2015, 03:11:50 pm
LOL, Jeb can't even lead in his home state. But Hillary will surely trail him nationwide in a few weeks once she declares!

Hmm, I'd like to see other polls though.

Have you seen Hillary's favorable ratings ? They are -10 or something and Bush's are +2.

Don't really know if she's actually ahead with these numbers, or if it's just PPP.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / IA-InsiderAdvantage: Walker opens massive lead, Carson 2nd on: March 24, 2015, 03:08:07 pm
29.0% Walker
13.5% Carson
12.3% Bush
10.5% Huckabee
  6.9% Cruz
  5.4% Rubio
  5.0% Paul
  4.8% Christie
  3.0% Trump
  9.7% Others/Undecided

Quote
Target Population:

Likely Iowa Republican Caucus voters

Sampling Method:

The survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode.

IVR: Registered Iowa voters were selected randomly and surveyed on the evening of March 20th, 2015 using an interactive voice response system.

Mobile: Registered voters not otherwise available by landline were surveyed on their mobile device.

Total Number of Respondents:

552 (weighted)

Margin of Error:

4.16% (95% confidence)

http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Iowa-3.24.15.pdf
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH-Gravis: Hillary only barely ahead of GOPers on: March 24, 2015, 02:52:48 pm
Gravis can't poll.

"Joke poll, because I don't like the resultzz."

LOL, wow, you've entered full blown delusion. What a sight to behold.

Do you believe that Rand Paul leads Elizabeth Warren by double digits in California? Do you believe he leads her by a bigger margin in California than in North Carolina? Do you believe he's within single digits of Hillary in California? Do you believe Warren is closer to Hillary in NH than in MA? Do you believe that the NH Dem primary electorate will be 56% men when it was 58% women in 2008? I can go on.

Face it, you're grasping at straws from a pollster you know is terrible.

Don't really know what your post has to do with the poll results.

The poll says that Hilldog is ahead of the GOPers by a slight margin.

How is that "delusional" for a swing-state like NH, with 50% Independents ?

Do you want her to be ahead by 20 ? In that case, you are delusional.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Utah's state House votes 39-34 to reinstitute execution by firing squad on: March 24, 2015, 02:50:03 pm
It's official: Firing squads in Utah allowed

SALT LAKE CITY Utah became the only state to allow firing squads for executions Monday when Gov. Gary Herbert signed a law approving the controversial method's use when no lethal-injection drugs are available.

Herbert has said he finds the firing squad "a little bit gruesome," but Utah is a capital punishment state and needs a backup execution method in case a shortage of the drugs persists.

"We regret anyone ever commits the heinous crime of aggravated murder to merit the death penalty, and we prefer to use our primary method of lethal injection when such a sentence is issued," Herbert spokesman Marty Carpenter said. "However, when a jury makes the decision and a judge signs a death warrant, enforcing that lawful decision is the obligation of the executive branch."

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2015/03/24/official-firing-squads-utah-allowed/70366174

It would have been better to simply abolish the death penalty instead ... Sad
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH-Gravis: Hillary only barely ahead of GOPers on: March 24, 2015, 02:41:28 pm
Gravis can't poll.

"Joke poll, because I don't like the resultzz."
8  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Euro 2016 Qualifying on: March 24, 2015, 02:36:36 pm
Next round of Euro qualifiers this weekend:

http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/qualifiers/season=2016/matches/day=5/index.html

Plus friendlies:

http://www.uefa.com/friendlies/season=2016/matches/index.html
9  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Police brutality (?) in Vienna on: March 24, 2015, 02:21:24 pm
One should always assume the worst when it comes to police behavior.

Yepp.

Obviously, their behaviour was not 100% professional. Why choke him and fixate him on the ground for a few minutes when there are 5 police officers who could simply handcuff him ?

The guy's likely a ticking timebomb too, but at least nothing worse has happened.

In the US, they would have probably tasered him or killed him ...
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Police brutality (?) in Vienna on: March 24, 2015, 02:09:42 pm
http://www.vice.com/alps/read/cop-watch-wiener-polizei-911

Please watch the video of a bystander in the link.



The story is this:

A 22-year old female student left her home in Vienna to go shopping at the Mariahilfer Street, a popular shopping street.

A guy not much older than her followed her and asked her stuff. She felt annoyed because he followed her constantly and then she went into a shop while he waited outside. In the shop, she called the police.

The police came and asked him to show an ID and asked what was going on.

Side note: The man obviously has psychological problems, because several witnesses saw him suddenly attacking the police officers, trying to punch them.

The police fixated him on the ground and also around his neck.

A bystander started to film.

The guy shouts: "I don't get air. Help me. Please call the police."

A bystander says: "I can't help you man, the police is already on top of you."

Guy on the ground: "Call the real police !"

Bystanders: "The police is already here."

Woman tries to wipe away the camera of bystander and says: "Why are you filming this ?"

Bystander: "Because that is police brutality and I want some documentation of it."

Black bystander to police: "Get off his neck ! You are choking him !"

Another: "Stop choking him !"

...

The guy on the ground looks like a white Austrian man (also judging from his accent).
11  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Germanwings A320 crashes in France on: March 24, 2015, 11:32:31 am
There is now new info about the crash site. Previously, the French media said the plane crashed at 2000m, in a snowy area.

Meanwhile, the crash site was located on a lower elevation and without snow.

From this picture, it looks like the rescue people are already there and might have it easier to recover the bodies than it was originally thought.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: MT-Gravis: Clinton very weak, 3-way tie in GOP primary on: March 24, 2015, 11:23:16 am
This is the definition of email gate fallout. Hillary is looking less inevitable every day.

This poll was done before emailgate though. It's already really old.

But it might indicate that Hillary has a structural problem in MT.

After all, Obama kicked her ass in 2008 in MT.
13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Germanwings A320 crashes in France on: March 24, 2015, 11:20:24 am
Well, that suxx.

Recovering the bodies will be really tough, considering the area. I live in a similar area myself and have been up on the mountains between 1500-3000m quite often, also in very bad conditions. Even if some people survived the crash up there (which I doubt), they would have a hard time surviving because it can get -15C up there during the night and they are most likely injured too, heavily. It will take the alpine rescuers a few days to get up there and helicopters are virtually unable to land on this snowy and scattered terrain ...
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / MT-Gravis: Gov. Bullock (D) not safe in 2016 on: March 24, 2015, 11:12:38 am
44-44 Bullock/Zinke
46-38 Bullock/Fox

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-montana-polling-2/
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / NH-Gravis: Ayotte+2 vs. Hassan on: March 24, 2015, 11:10:48 am
47% Kelly Ayotte (R-Inc.)
45% Maggie Hassan (D)

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-new-hampshire-primary-political-poll/
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / NH-Gravis: Hillary only barely ahead of GOPers on: March 24, 2015, 11:08:13 am
Clinton leads Bush, 43 percent to 40 percent; leads Walker, 46 percent to 43 percent and leads Paul, 45 percent to 42 percent.

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-new-hampshire-primary-political-poll/
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / NH-Gravis: Hillary below 50, Walker/Bush battle it out on: March 24, 2015, 11:06:47 am
Dems:

49% Clinton
20% Warren
12% Sanders
  5% Biden
  2% Webb
  2% O'Malley

GOP:



http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-new-hampshire-primary-political-poll/
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / MT-Gravis: All Republicans ahead of Hillary on: March 24, 2015, 11:04:04 am
49-35 Bush/Clinton
48-38 Paul/Clinton
49-37 Walker/Clinton
50-33 Christie/Clinton
50-33 Huckabee/Clinton

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-montana-polling-2/
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / MT-Gravis: Clinton very weak, 3-way tie in GOP primary on: March 24, 2015, 10:59:54 am
Dems:

42% Clinton
34% Warren
  6% Biden
  3% Webb
  2% Warner
  1% O'Malley
12% Unsure

GOP:

20% Bush
19% Huckabee
19% Walker
  9% Rubio
  5% Christie
  4% Cruz
  4% Paul
  3% Perry
  2% Carson
16% Unsure

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-montana-polling-2/
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: March 22, 2015, 12:10:24 pm
What is NEOS?

A socially liberal/economically neo-liberal party founded in late 2012 and successor to the "Liberal Forum", which had some success in the 1990s.

About Austria's FDP.

NEOS won 5% in the 2013 parliamentary elections and later polled as high as 15%, but has now fallen back to around 6-8% in national polling after a series of missteps and underwhelming election results.

https://neos.eu/neos-english

The weak share today for NEOS/Greens/KP has to do with the fact that these were municipal elections. NEOS/Greens/KP only ran in a handful of the 286 towns today and therefore this result is not comparable with state or federal elections.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics on: March 22, 2015, 12:03:18 pm
Final results of the Styria municipal elections today:

42.7% VP (-4.1%)
31.6% SP (-5.4%)
13.9% FP (+7.3%)
  3.3% Greens (+1.2%)
  1.5% KP (+0.3%)
  0.4% NEOS (+0.4%)
  6.6% Others/Indy lists (+0.3%)

Turnout: 73.4%

Despite more than doubling its share, the FP won only 1 out of 286 towns. Independent lists won in 6 towns. Surprisingly, the SP lost more than the VP, which could indicate a tough battle in the May 31 state election.

A clickable map with results is here.

Map:

22  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Should Germany pay Greece reparations for World War II? on: March 22, 2015, 10:10:01 am
Yeah, empathy is fine but there are certain diseases for which you need to apply the thumbscrews and chemotherapy. Otherwise the patient is dead. The same thing goes for the Greek political crooks and tax evaders. If you do not crack down hard on them and show them how it's done, they will never change and learn. Even if you let Greece go bankrupt and relieve them of all debt, they will be at 200% debt levels again within a few decades and the same sh*t is here again.

I think your metaphor can be improved. Austerity is more similar to bloodletting: inefficient, outdated and, in extreme cases, mortal. You are a lost case.

Not if applied correctly and efficiently. It's a matter of opinion. We have seen where the alternative to saving has led: misery and doom for millions of people. If the affected countries would be more like Switzerland, this wouldn't happen.
23  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Should Germany pay Greece reparations for World War II? on: March 22, 2015, 09:54:06 am
Also, the question in the OP is wrong. It should read:

"Should Germany pay Greece more reparations for World War II?"

The title as it is implies that Germany has not paid anything to Greece so far ...
24  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Should Germany pay Greece reparations for World War II? on: March 22, 2015, 09:42:20 am
It was not meant as an insult or as a comparison with the people of Greece who have fallen into actual poverty, but more as an attack on the way the previous governments handled fiscal matters that eventually led to their doom (like you said). The poor people now are only insofar to blame as they tolerated and repeatedly elected these incompetent crooks, while blaming and hating on the Germans, instead of embracing the things that the Germans (and Swiss and Swedes and Danes etc. etc.) did right when it comes to economic/fiscal policies.

You have no idea of how irritating such moralistic sermons must be for the Greeks whom actually are dealing with the present devastation. Sure, it'd be good changing the way in which incompetent crooks used to run the country. However, how you can you expect an ill patient to recover while you have both hands on his (or her) throat? At the end of the day, you are totally incapable of walking in another person's shoes. That human feeling called empathy.

Yeah, empathy is fine but there are certain diseases for which you need to apply the thumbscrews and chemotherapy. Otherwise the patient is dead. The same thing goes for the Greek political crooks and tax evaders. If you do not crack down hard on them and show them how it's done, they will never change and learn. Even if you let Greece go bankrupt and relieve them of all debt, they will be at 200% debt levels again within a few decades and the same sh*t is here again.
25  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Should Germany pay Greece reparations for World War II? on: March 22, 2015, 09:22:24 am
Not spoken like a true Republican, but more like someone with common sense. If you want to live your life like the Greeks, go ahead. And end up broke and a financial slave to others. But that's not what I want to do. Saving is awesome and that's how I managed my money since forever and now have a good surplus. If I managed it like the Greeks, I'd live under a bridge now. And btw, this policy is not really exclusively "Republican". Even Green parties, like the Baden-Wrttemberg ones, are in favor of fiscal conservatism.

See Branson, there's no doubt about the incompetence of the previous Greek governments (PASOK and ND) but this comment is really insulting for those Greek citizens suffering the consequences of their bad management and the criminal (there's no other word to describe it) diktat from Germany and the Troika. At this point, it doesn't surprise me the terrible lack of empathy of well-meaning fiscal conservatives like you. Probably you are only a product of the environment, a victim of indoctrination. However, calm down.

It was not meant as an insult or as a comparison with the people of Greece who have fallen into actual poverty, but more as an attack on the way the previous governments handled fiscal matters that eventually led to their doom (like you said). The poor people now are only insofar to blame as they tolerated and repeatedly elected these incompetent crooks, while blaming and hating on the Germans, instead of embracing the things that the Germans (and Swiss and Swedes and Danes etc. etc.) did right when it comes to economic/fiscal policies.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 1410


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines