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21626  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / CT: Suffolk University: Malloy (D) leads Foley by 11 on: October 21, 2010, 12:53:00 pm
New Poll: Connecticut Governor by Suffolk University on 2010-10-20

Summary: D: 49%, R: 38%, I: 4%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

21627  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / CT: Suffolk University: Blumenthal (D) destroys McMahon on: October 21, 2010, 12:50:56 pm
New Poll: Connecticut Senator by Suffolk University on 2010-10-20

Summary: D: 57%, R: 39%, I: 2%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

21628  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Accounts Deleted on: October 21, 2010, 11:55:42 am
Dave,

Is there a way we can have an option to delete our accounts if we decide to leave permanently?

The answer to your question is in the 1st post.

E-Mail Dave and he will erase your account - forever.
21629  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Comedy Goldmine: The Gold Knight on: October 21, 2010, 11:49:50 am
The dems will win either WVA or Ky, neither or one of them.

LOL !
21630  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / MI: Rossman Group/Team TelCom: Snyder (R) ahead by 14 on: October 21, 2010, 11:43:57 am
49.5% Snyder (R)
35.8% Bernero (D)
14.8% Undecided

http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2010/10/poll_virg_bernero_still_trails.html
21631  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / IL: Rasmussen: Brady (R) continues to lead on: October 21, 2010, 11:41:08 am
New Poll: Illinois Governor by Rasmussen on 2010-10-20

Summary: D: 37%, R: 45%, I: 6%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

21632  Election Archive / 2010 House Election Polls / ND-AL: Rasmussen: Berg (R) leads Rep. Pomeroy (D) by 10 on: October 21, 2010, 11:39:17 am
52% Berg (R)
42% Pomeroy (D)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/platinum/election_2010_state_polls/north_dakota/crosstabs_north_dakota_house_of_representatives_october_18_19_2010
21633  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / NY: Rasmussen: Gillibrand (D) leads by more than 20 on: October 21, 2010, 10:17:39 am
New Poll: New York Senator (Special) by Rasmussen on 2010-10-19

Summary: D: 54%, R: 33%, I: 6%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

21634  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / SC: Rasmussen: Haley (R) leads by 9 on: October 21, 2010, 07:23:19 am
New Poll: South Carolina Governor by Rasmussen on 2010-10-19

Summary: D: 38%, R: 47%, I: 4%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

21635  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What's Going On In PA?! on: October 21, 2010, 06:32:34 am
Heres a review of the 1994 elections about 1 week before the elections:

THE 1994 CAMPAIGN: THE SENATE; G.O.P. HOLDING ON IN TIGHT CONTEST TO RULE SENATE

By RICHARD L. BERKE

Published: October 31, 1994

After a tumultuous week of campaigning in which Democrats proclaimed that they were gaining steam, statewide polls published yesterday showed that the fight for control of the Senate was still neck-and-neck.

Indeed, the two Republican Senators whom the Democrats say they have the best chance of picking off -- William V. Roth Jr. of Delaware and Conrad Burns of Montana -- have opened wide leads over their Democratic challengers, according to polls conducted for major newspapers in those two states.

Even more discouraging for Democrats, after weeks of a virtual dead heat in Pennsylvania, Representative Rick Santorum, a Republican, has pulled ahead of the incumbent Democrat, Senator Harris Wofford, in that state's latest poll. The survey of likely voters statewide, conducted for The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and WTAE-TV, showed that Mr. Santorum had 46 percent and Mr. Wofford 35 percent. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus five percentage points.

And in Michigan, a poll of likely voters made public on Saturday night by WXYZ-TV found that Spence Abraham, the Republican, has gained over Representative Bob Carr, 46 percent to 34 percent. Another poll last week showed Mr. Carr slightly ahead.

Despite these troubling indicators, Vice President Al Gore was upbeat yesterday about Democratic prospects as he suggested that the party would catch up in the final full week of campaigning.

"I think the wind is at the backs of Democratic candidates now," Mr. Gore said on the ABC News program "This Week," "especially those who have the courage to vote for a change in our economic blueprint."

To drive home that message, President Mr. Clinton will begin a weeklong campaign tour today, beginning with appearances in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh for Mr. Wofford and the Democratic candidate for governor, Mark Singel.

Democratic officials are emphasizing that, after two debates, polls show that Senator Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts, who had been considered one of the most endangered incumbents, is now clearly ahead of his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney. Democratic Senate candidates have also gained ground, although not the leads, in Arizona, California, Vermont and Washington.

And as the campaigning has grown more intense in recent days and incumbents have returned home from Washington, there has been some other promising news for Democrats. Mr. Clinton's popularity ratings have risen after his recent foreign policy successes in Haiti and Kuwait as well as his presence at the treaty signing between Israel and Jordan. Democrats are chipping away at the edge held by Republicans in national polls in which people are asked whom they will support for Congress.

In California, Representative Michael Huffington, a Republican, is on the defensive in his effort to unseat Senator Dianne Feinstein over the disclosure that he employed an illegal immigrant as a nanny.

But even with Mr. Kennedy's lead and Mr. Huffington's troubles, several analysts said it would still be very possible -- though certainly not assured -- for Republicans to win the seven seats they need to take control of the Senate. There are now 56 Democrats and 44 Republicans in the Senate. Republicans are ahead or in neck-and-neck races for nine open seats. Of the 10 Republican incumbents seeking re-election, almost all have comfortable leads; 5 Democratic incumbents are in contests that could go either way.

"There's a lot of tightening in these races," said Charles Cook, who publishes a nonpartisan political newsletter. "But I'm still doubtful of the Democrats' ability to turn it around. The conventional wisdom is the Democrats are picking up a lot of steam, but I think it's a lot of wishful thinking."

In Montana, Mr. Burns was thought to be in trouble, particularly after the Senator repeated a rancher's racial slur -- an episode that drew headlines in the state. But a poll of likely voters published yesterday by Lee Newspapers and conducted by Political Media Research Inc., found that Mr. Burns held a 51 percent-to-37 percent lead over his Democratic opponent, Jack Mudd, who is a former law school dean. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

And in Delaware, Democratic officials said they were particularly disappointed that the Democrat, Attorney General Charles M. Oberly 3d, had been unable to make inroads against Mr. Roth, whom he has portrayed as out of touch with the state after four terms. A poll in yesterday's News-Journal in Wilmington, conducted by Louis Harris & Associates, found that Mr. Roth drew 53 percent of likely voters, and Mr. Oberly 37 percent. The margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.

"To be completely honest, that's very different from what we thought it was going to be," Kim James, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said.

Ken Klein, the Democratic Senatorial Committee's communications director, later sought to cast the results in more positive terms than Ms. James. He raised questions about how the Delaware poll was conducted and emphasized the other states where Democrats appeared to be showing marked improvement but were mostly still behind. "The overall picture in the last 10 days has been a net positive," Mr. Klein said.

But James R. Soles, a political scientist at the University of Delaware, said Democrats who had set their sights on the seat did not realize that voters in the state rarely turn out incumbents. "Once it takes politicians to its heart, Delaware doesn't lightly turn them aside," Mr. Soles said. "I have never termed Mr. Roth vulnerable."

Republicans, who last controlled the Senate in 1986, could not contain their glee over the latest polls.

"I am absolutely convinced that Republicans are going to win the United States Senate on Nov. 8," said Gary Koops, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "There's not a Republican incumbent in the country who's trailing in any poll -- that points out that it's not just anti-incumbent. There's an anti-Democratic element to the voters' mood."

http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F50E10FC355B0C728FDDA90994DC494D81
21636  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Predict ... on: October 21, 2010, 06:13:28 am
the official 2010 US Census Population (only the 50 states + DC, no Puerto Rico etc.)

It will be released in late December.

I'll say: 312.687.563
21637  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Final round of PPP polls - 18 states ! on: October 21, 2010, 05:47:19 am
Updated map:



The states that are likely to be polled on the East coast are:

* Maine
* Connecticut
* New Hampshire

But @ DailyKos, people have voted for Arizona and New Hampshire to be polled, so PPP might not poll NH twice, but South Carolina instead if the Kos poll this weekend produces large leads for the Republicans.

They also replaced Wisconsin with Kentucky for the "definite final round of polling".

...

You can now also vote for the rest of the states:

-Arizona
-Arkansas
-Iowa
-Louisiana
-Minnesota
-New Mexico
-Oregon
-Texas
-Wisconsin

Currently Minnesota, Wisconsin and Texas are ahead.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/10/one-last-vote.html

I voted for Wisconsin of course.
21638  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / VT: Dubie (R) in RGA poll sharing trouble on: October 21, 2010, 05:20:28 am
The state Attorney General's Office is reviewing evidence the campaign of Republican gubernatorial candidate Brian Dubie shared the results of an internal poll with the Republican Governors' Association, a move that might have violated state election law.

"I'm aware of the situation you're talking about," Assistant Attorney General Michael McShane said Wednesday when asked if his office is investigating the matter. "We all understand the election is less than two weeks away, and we're expecting to reach some conclusions before the election."

The Dubie campaign maintains there is no violation of the law.

"If it was illegal, we wouldn't have done it," Dubie campaign manager Corry Bliss said. "The sharing of polling information is 100 percent legal under the campaign-finance law. We make every effort to comply with the spirit and the letter of the law."

The evidence McShane is studying includes a 260-page document filed recently by the Republican Governors Association with the Internal Revenue Service showing an in-kind contribution Sept. 22 from Friends of Brian Dubie valued at $25,500 and identified as "polling."

Papers on file at the Vermont Secretary of State's Office show that Friends of Brian Dubie, the name of Dubie's campaign organization, paid $25,500 for a poll Sept. 27.

Under state campaign-finance law, political entities can spend unlimited amounts of money on behalf of a candidate so long as they do not coordinate what they're doing with the candidate's campaign. If the activity fits the coordination definition, spending is limited to $6,000 per election cycle.

Paul Tencher, head of the Vermont Democratic Party's coordinated committee, said the sharing of private polling data is proof Dubie's campaign and the Republican Governors Association are working in coordination with each other.

http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/article/20101021/NEWS03/10210302/Vermont-AG-investigates-Dubie-poll-sharing
21639  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PA: Quinnipiac University: Toomey's (R) lead down to 2 points on: October 21, 2010, 05:19:07 am
Yep, this race is 100% tied now.
21640  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PA: Quinnipiac University: Toomey's (R) lead down to 2 points on: October 21, 2010, 05:06:26 am
Well, the main difference between this and the PPP poll is that Sestak does much better with the base in the Quinnipiac poll (getting almost 90%), but he does much worse among Independents. PPP had him tied with Independents, while Quinnipiac shows Sestak trailing by 20.

So, its almost guaranteed that Sestak will get 90% of Democrats on Election Day, but I cant say much about Independents. I can only say that he has to at least achieve a tie with them to win the race, or not lose by more than 5 points.
21641  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / PA: Quinnipiac University: Toomey's (R) lead down to 2 points on: October 21, 2010, 05:03:11 am
New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2010-10-19

Summary: D: 46%, R: 48%, I: 0%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

21642  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / MO Senate: Blunt (R) and the illegal immigrant in the 90s on: October 21, 2010, 04:57:22 am
By DAVE HELLING and STEVE KRASKE
The Kansas City Star

The Missouri Democratic Party Tuesday released documents they said showed Rep. Roy Blunt tried to help an illegal worker in 1990, while he served as Missouri Secretary of State.

Congressman Blunt hired an illegal worker and used his official office and Washington connections to try to expedite this workers case, said Corey Platt with the state party. He also accused Blunt of hypocrisy for running a commercial critical of illegal immigration policy.

Blunt campaign spokesman Rich Chrismer called the accusations desperate, dirty politics.

Robin Carnahan and her handlers have been shopping this false story to state and national reporters for months, he said in a statement. This person never worked for the Blunts. She simply helped out at a couple of church events. Constituents who are having problems with a government agency reach out to Roy Blunt all of the time and he passes this information on to the appropriate officials all of the time.

The documents released Tuesday include a letter from Blunt, on state letterhead, asking then-INS Commissioner Gene McNary to address a case involving Dora Narvaez. Narvaez, the Blunt letter said, had done some work for Blunts wife at the time, Roseann.

I believe her situation is properly expressed in her letter to Roseann, Blunt wrote to McNary, a former St. Louis County Executive and a friend of Blunts. Narvaezs letter was attached to the Blunt communication, Democrats said.

I decided that if the guy you know best at Immigration and Naturalization happens to be the person in charge, then its all right to direct your correspondence to him, Blunt wrote.

In her letter, Narvaez says she asked that her request for political asylum be transferred to the Kansas City immigration office from Los Angeles. She also asks for a Departure Record I-94 as part of the process.

Narvaez is a native of Nicaragua.

The party said Tuesday the exchange shows Blunt tried to use his office to grant her expedited citizenship.

Read more: http://www.kansascity.com/2010/10/19/2331075/missouri-democrats-accuse-blunt.html#ixzz12zBUFY00
21643  Election Archive / 2010 House Election Polls / FL-22/SSN/VSS/Susquehanna: West (R) leads Rep. Klein (D) on: October 21, 2010, 03:45:29 am


The Sunshine State News Poll, which surveyed 800 likely voters between Oct. 17-19, has a margin of error of +/- 3.46 percent.

http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/allen-west-winning-wild-cd-22-race-over-ron-klein-poll-shows
21644  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / AR: Mason-Dixon: Boozman (R) leads by 21 on: October 21, 2010, 01:56:26 am
New Poll: Arkansas Senator by Mason-Dixon on 2010-10-19

Summary: D: 34%, R: 55%, I: 4%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

21645  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria on: October 21, 2010, 01:37:55 am
There will be no elections in Austria for the next 3 years, therefore the FP and Strache will continue his strong opposition against the federal SPVP government and the BZ is done.

If the federal government sucks in the next 3 years, Strache may be well positioned for a '99 style election result.

Will there be any municipal elections in Austria before 2013?  Any in significant cities?

Yes, there will be municipal elections in 2012 in the state of Burgenland, was well as in the bigger cities of Innsbruck (Tyrol) and Krems (Lower Austria).


Not counting elections below the state (and Vienna) level, when is the next election presently scheduled to be, and what is that election?  Might there be elections ealier somewhere if a coalition breaks down or a popular government desires an earlier election, or are term lengths set in Austria?  Or does it vary depending on the level of government or the state for state/Vienna city governments.


The next Austrian Parliament Election is scheduled to be in 2013, because the term was widened to 5 years with the new 2007 election law. Previuosly it was 4 years. It was widened by the SPVP government so "that they have more time for reforms".

Of course a government can break up and a party can call for early elections, as was the case in 2008, after 2 years.

But in the current coalition the athmosphere between SP and VP is much better than under Gusenbauer/Molterer between 2006 and 2008, so I expect that there wont be early elections.


If you know, when will the next elections be in each state?  And when will the next Parliamentary, Presidential and European Parliament elections be?


Parliament: 2013

Presidential: 2016

EP: 2014

States: http://www.sora.at/index.php?id=29&L=1


You say the "the BZ is done," but they still have the governorship of Carinthia where the FP didn't win any seats in the last election.  Do you expect the BZ to merge with the FP? The BZ developing a formal CSU-style relationship with the FP?  Or neither but the BZ becoming a nothing party (with no chance of winning any seats) at the state level (and gradually most if not all municipalities at the municipal level) outside of Carnithia, with or without the FP becoming (remaining?) a nothing party in Carinthia?


The BZ does not have the Governorship in Carinthia - the FPK (Freedom Party of Carinthia) has. The FPK was created in December 2009, when the Scheuch brothers announced their split from the state BZ. Most of the BZ members followed and now there`s a stronger FPK in the state (with about 30% support in opinion polls) and a weaker rest-BZ (with about 15% support in opinion polls).

The BZ outside of Carinthia is dead, they had only 3% maximum in each state election and they are in no state parliament.

I think its more likely that the BZ will be dissolved in the rest of Austria, rather than being integrated into the FP. Josef Bucher of the federal BZ is not a good friend of Heinz-Christian Strache from the FP.

Im not so sure about Carinthia though. Maybe the BZ will get a respectable result in the 2014 state election, but I doubt it. I guess most former BZ voters will switch over to the FPK in 4 years. Therefore the BZ will more or less be history in 5 years.
21646  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria on: October 21, 2010, 01:11:00 am
It seems like there will be another SPVP Grand Coalition in Styria announced on Tuesday.

And in Vienna, it seems like we wont see a coalition until November, because both the Greens and the VP are in the game to be a partner of the SP.

In the end well see a coalition partner that is more convenient for the SP and that will not have as many demands. That should be the VP I guess.

If we indeed have 2 new Grand Coalitions of SPVP in Styria and Vienna and the federal SPVP government, that should be good news for Strache and the FP for the 2013 parliamentary elections.

So was the SPVP coalition in Stryia announced on Tuesday?  And besides Vienna (unless an agreement has already been reached there), what parties are presently in government in each of the other states in Austria, and which party is the governor from in each of them?

Hello Kevin:

Yes, the new SPVP government in Styria was announced on Tuesday and Gov. Voves of the SP will be re-elected today in the Styria parliament with the votes of SPVP and FP. Greens and KP are the opposition.

In Vienna, it takes a while for the SP to find a good coalition partner. Probably another week or 2, but I cannot say whos the favorite right now. It could be either Greens or VP, but internal sources say that Mayor Hupl of the SP isnt really a fan of the Greens and that he has good ties to the VP-dominated city branch of the Chamber of Commerce.

The governments of the states:

Burgenland: SP-VP (Gov. Hans Niessl - SP)

Carinthia: FPK-VP-SP (Gov. Gerhard Drfler - FPK)

Lower Austria: VP-SP-FP (Gov. Erwin Prll - VP)

Upper Austria: VP-Greens-SP-FP (Gov. Josef Phringer - VP)

Salzburg: SP-VP (Gov. Gabriele Burgstaller - SP)

Styria: SP-VP-FP (Gov. Franz Voves - SP)

Tyrol: VP-SP (Gov. Gnther Platter - VP)

Vorarlberg: VP (Gov. Herbert Sausgruber  - VP)

Vienna (currently): SP (Mayor and Governor Michael Hupl - SP)

...

Now you will ask yourself: Why was there a SPVP government announced in Styria, but the FP is still in the government.

That has to do with the Proporz-System. Read here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proporz
21647  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 44/Toomey 41 (10/16-10/19) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 19 DROPS on: October 21, 2010, 12:50:14 am
Quinnipiac will also have a PA Senate poll out today.
21648  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 44/Toomey 41 (10/16-10/19) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 19 DROPS on: October 21, 2010, 12:44:32 am
Title of thread has been modified to warn people not to enter the poll again until 19th drops off - otherwise the database will become Muhlenberg-centric.

So, the next poll entry should be on Sunday, with the sample from Oct. 20-23.
21649  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / CA: Public Policy Institute of CA: Brown (D) leads by 8 on: October 21, 2010, 12:36:28 am
New Poll: California Governor by Public Policy Institute of CA on 2010-10-19

Summary: D: 44%, R: 36%, I: 4%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

21650  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: SC: Crantford & Associates: Haley (R) and Sheheen (D) about tied on: October 20, 2010, 01:50:14 pm
     Isn't SC narrowly leading for the 4th spot up for grabs in PPP's final poll blitz?

They only poll 3 races and SC has currently no chance for 3rd place.

Its trailing by 60 votes with 3 hours to go.
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