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21626  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria and onwards ... on: April 07, 2012, 08:36:57 am
In a separate election question, Gallup also included the Austrian Pirate Party and a new party by Austrian/Canadian billionnaire Frank Stronach (which does not exist yet).

The news report says that the Pirates would get 7% support and the Stronach-party would get 6%, with the SP/FP and Greens losing the most support.

Ahh, my email to the 24 editorial department has helped. They have now updated their article to show support for SP, VP, FP, Greens and BZ too. The results are:

25%  [-3] FP
25%  [-3] SP
22%  [nc] VP
10%  [-4] Greens
  7% [+7] Pirates
  6% [+6] Stronach-party
  3%  [-1] BZ
  2%  [-2] Others

So, the Greens would lose the most to the Pirates and the Stronach-party ?

That's surprising, I thought it would be the FP ...
21627  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria and onwards ... on: April 07, 2012, 08:25:42 am
New Gallup poll for 24:

28% FP
28% SP
22% VP
14% Greens
  4% BZ
  4% Others

In a separate election question, Gallup also included the Austrian Pirate Party and a new party by Austrian/Canadian billionnaire Frank Stronach (which does not exist yet).

The news report says that the Pirates would get 7% support and the Stronach-party would get 6%, with the SP/FP and Greens losing the most support.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/OeSTERREICH-Umfrage-SPOe-und-FPOe-auf-Platz-1-OeVP-verliert-weiter/62104088

Frank Stronach has previously said that he "may create a new party based on economic policy". But he already said it a year ago and nothing has happened in the meantime. If he's really serious about it, he'd probably have to create it in the next 6 months, because of the party organisation and because the "silent campaign" for the Oct. 2013 election already starts in the fall.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Stronach

Stronach, who was a member and candidate for the Canadian Liberal Party once (or still is) - is also rumoured to financially back the BZ in their 2013 campaign if they adopt some of his policy ideas in their election platform. A few of the BZ people are working for his MAGNA company and the BZ is a business-oriented and center-right-liberal party, therefore it would fit Stronach's goals. Without Stronach's financial help, the BZ is probably D.O.A. next year.
21628  General Politics / International General Discussion / The poem by Gnter Grass on: April 07, 2012, 06:58:33 am
Gnter Grass's Controversial Poem About Israel, Iran, and War, Translated

On Wednesday, Nobel-winning German writer Gnter Grass published a poem denouncing Israel's nuclear program and aggression toward Iran. The poem, in which Grass says he has kept silent on the issue for fear of being labeled anti-Semitic, has sparked controversy within Germany, where relations with Israel are often colored by a sense of national guilt for the Holocaust. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the poem's assertion that Israel poses a greater threat to world peace than Iran a "shameful moral equivalence." The poem also laments Germany's decision to sell submarines to Israel that are capable of launching nuclear weapons.

Grass's history with regards to German-Jewish relations is complicated. The writer, now 84, spent decades pushing his country to confront its Nazi past, making him a hero to many Germans who share his desire to deal honestly with Germany's complicated and painful history. In 2006, he announced that he had served in Hitler's infamous Waffen SS division. He was 17 years old when the war ended in 1945, but the admission, coming so late, has darkened his previously bright legacy.

His poem, "What Must Be Said," is overtly and boldly political. It is not exactly the prettiest prose in its original German, and the English doesn't read much better. Translating it below, I've tried to untangle some of the needlessly Teutonic constructions where it doesn't undo the deliberately winding and parenthetical tone too much. Even more concise German can sound circuitous to an English ear, but Grass's writing here is an extreme example. The poem is, from a purely communicative standpoint, a relatively inefficient denunciation -- akin to writing up a paragraph of solid reasoning and then cutting it up and sticking little bits in fortune cookies.

What Must Be Said

Why do I stay silent, conceal for too long
What clearly is and has been
Practiced in war games, at the end of which we as survivors
Are at best footnotes.

It is the alleged right to first strike
That could annihilate the Iranian people--
Enslaved by a loud-mouth
And guided to organized jubilation--
Because in their territory,
It is suspected, a bomb is being built.

Yet why do I forbid myself
To name that other country
In which, for years, even if secretly,
There has been a growing nuclear potential at hand
But beyond control, because no testing is available?

The universal concealment of these facts,
To which my silence subordinated itself,
I sense as incriminating lies
And force--the punishment is promised
As soon as it is ignored;
The verdict of "anti-Semitism" is familiar.

Now, though, because in my country
Which from time to time has sought and confronted
The very crime
That is without compare
In turn on a purely commercial basis, if also
With nimble lips calling it a reparation, declares
A further U-boat should be delivered to Israel,
Whose specialty consists of guiding all-destroying warheads to where the existence
Of a single atomic bomb is unproven,
But through fear of what may be conclusive,
I say what must be said.

Why though have I stayed silent until now?
Because I think my origin,
Which has never been affected by this obliterating flaw,
Forbids this fact to be expected as pronounced truth
Of the country of Israel, to which I am bound
And wish to stay bound.

Why do I say only now,
Aged and with my last ink,
That the nuclear power of Israel endangers
The already fragile world peace?
Because it must be said
What even tomorrow may be too late to say;
Also because we--as Germans burdened enough--
Could be the suppliers to a crime
That is foreseeable, wherefore our complicity
Could not be redeemed through any of the usual excuses.

And granted: I am silent no longer
Because I am tired of the hypocrisy
Of the West; in addition to which it is to be hoped
That this will free many from silence,
Prompt the perpetrator of the recognized danger
To renounce violence and
Likewise insist
That an unhindered and permanent control
Of the Israeli nuclear potential
And the Iranian nuclear sites
Be authorized through an international agency
Of the governments of both countries.

Only this way are all, the Israelis and Palestinians,
Even more, all people, that in this
Region occupied by mania
Live cheek by jowl among enemies,
In the end also to help us.

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/04/gunter-grasss-controversial-poem-about-israel-iran-and-war-translated/255549/
21629  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria and onwards ... on: April 07, 2012, 02:35:43 am
There's also a new OGM poll in today's "Kurier" newspaper, which surveyed Austrians about the work of VP-leader Michael Spindelegger and his team of VP ministers after 1 year of work (1 year ago, the previous VP-boss Josef Prll stepped down because of health problems and Spindelegger changed some ministers):



Spindelegger himself has very low approval ratings, as well as the women in his team (but not because they are women, but because their offices and how they handle it is really bad).

Beatrix Karl, Minister for Justice, has problems because of how some polarizing cases were handled and because of problems within the system (not enough judges, lawyers etc.)

Johanna Mikl-Leitner, Interior Minister, has problems because she's a hardliner on immigration and asylum and because of the new unpopular data storage law.

And Maria Fekter, Minister for Finances, is well ... Maria Fekter. Also a hardliner, excentric and always had low approval ratings.

Only 30% of Austrians approve of the job that Spindelegger has done in the previous year, while 55% disapprove.

The only 2 that have positive ratings are Sebastian Kurz (Secretary of State for Immigration & Integration), who is the youngest member of government in the history of Austria.

The other one is Minister for Science and Universities and former Dean of Innsbruck University, Karl-Heinz Tchterle - a former Green Party member.
21630  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: ME: King leads 56-22-12 in Maine People's Resource Center Poll on: April 07, 2012, 12:46:05 am
https://www.mainepeoplesalliance.org/

It's from a (somewhat dodgy-looking) hard-left think tank, so take it cum grano salis.

Yet their polls from 2010 were pretty good, from a quick look.
21631  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / ME-MPRC: Maine remains in the "strong Obama" column on: April 07, 2012, 12:39:38 am
Do you approve or disapprove of how Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

52-44

Do you approve or disapprove of how Paul LePage is handling his job as governor?

39-56

If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

55-37 Obama

CD1: 61-33 Obama
CD2: 48-41 Obama

http://mprc.me/research/mprc_0412can12.pdf
21632  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Romney making a mega buy in PA. on: April 07, 2012, 12:15:38 am
I'm in a Borg mood today ... Tongue

21633  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria and onwards ... on: April 07, 2012, 12:09:58 am
I have school from 7:35 to 12:35.

Then you are obviously a fascist, according to our UKers ... Wink
21634  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Is Mitt Romney ... on: April 07, 2012, 12:06:09 am
a borg drone ?

Full Borg designation: "47 of 50" (Primary Adjunct of Unimatrix 12).

21635  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria and onwards ... on: April 06, 2012, 11:42:39 pm
New Styria state elections poll by the good OGM institute:









http://www.kleinezeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/2990050/ja-zum-sparpaket-aber-minus-fuer-spoe-oevp.story

Pretty weird: Even though voters in Styria are happy with the SPVP government there and think that the state is on a good path and give the party leaders and their policies good grades, the SP and the VP are losing heavily compared with the 2010 state elections while the FP, Greens and the KP are gaining strongly. One good thing is that the BZ follows the path of the German FDP: into non-existance ... Smiley
21636  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria and onwards ... on: April 06, 2012, 11:33:34 pm
Madness. No wonder you people produced Hitler.

Did school always start at 9 in the UK or did it start earlier in the past ?

Tongue
21637  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CT to repeal the death penalty on: April 06, 2012, 12:12:43 pm
The chances that CA voters repeal the death penalty are not too bad actually.

The ballot language will probably include "and replace it with life imprisonment without the chance of parole".

And the latest Field poll shows:

48% life without parole
40% death penalty

http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2393.pdf

And as you can see from the historical poll results, support for life without parole is steadily increasing.
21638  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / CT to repeal the death penalty on: April 06, 2012, 12:01:56 pm
Connecticut moves to abolish death penalty

By ANDREW WELSH-HUGGINS, Associated Press

HARTFORD, Conn. (AP) After executing just one prisoner in more than 50 years, Connecticut moved Thursday to become the fifth state in five years to do away with the death penalty for good.

But the repeal wouldn't be a lifeline for the state's 11 death row inmates, including two men who killed a woman and two children in a horrifying home invasion supporters touted as a key reason to keep the law on the books. The state Senate debated for hours Thursday about whether the law would reverse those sentences before voting 20-16 to repeal the law.

After the state Senate's 20-16 Thursday vote to repeal the law, the heavily Democratic state House of Representatives is expected to follow with approval within weeks. Gov. Dannel P. Malloy, the first Democratic governor elected in two decades, has vowed to sign the same bill vetoed by his Republican predecessor.

The wealthy, liberal state is one of the last in the Northeast to have a death penalty law and would join New Mexico, Illinois, New Jersey and New York as the most recent to outlaw capital punishment. Repeal proposals are also pending in several other states including Kansas and Kentucky, while an initiative to end the death penalty goes before California voters in November.

Like Connecticut, states that have recently decided to abolish capital punishment were among those that in practice rarely executed inmates. New Jersey, for example, hasn't executed anyone in more than 40 years; Connecticut's death row population is more than seven times below the national average.

Death sentences and executions are also plummeting around the country as fewer prosecutors push capital punishment cases, often because of new laws that allow life with no possibility of parole as a sentencing option.

The possibility of executing the innocent, driven by the rise of DNA as a tool to exonerate wrongfully convicted defendants, is the biggest overall factor driving states to reconsider capital punishment, said Doug Berman, an Ohio State University law professor.

"That has the most profound and enduring resonance as an argument and one that can never be pushed back," Berman said.

The Senate debate Thursday focused on how the law could affect the state's 11 death row inmates, including the two men sentenced to death for the 2007 home invasion attack in the New Haven suburb of Cheshire. They include two men sentenced to death for killing a woman and her two daughters after tormenting the family for hours in the New Haven suburb of Cheshire. The lone survivor of the attack, Dr. William Petit, successfully lobbied state lawmakers to hold off on repeal last year when one of the killers was still facing trial.

"We believe in the death penalty because we believe it is really the only true, just punishment for certain heinous and depraved murders," Petit said Wednesday. "One thing you never hear the abolitionists talk about is the victims, almost never. The forgotten people. The people who died and can't be here to speak for themselves."

Connecticut would become the 17th state without a death penalty. Executions in the U.S. have declined from a high of 98 in 1999 to 43 last year, said Richard Dieter, executive director of the Death Penalty Information Center. The number of people sentenced to death each year has also dropped sharply, from 300 a decade ago to 78 last year, he said.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j37GxfVJRGcUEVR5BW6bOSc0E0hA?docId=2ae24502dcea44548f2651649fa85f7e

...

Smiley

Let's hope CA follows suit in November.
21639  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Crime Statistics of Europe on: April 06, 2012, 09:46:12 am
Here are the new statistics, incl. 2009:

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-SF-12-006/EN/KS-SF-12-006-EN.PDF

Austria now has the lowest homicide rate in Europe (or better said in 2009) ... Smiley
21640  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: AH.com on: April 06, 2012, 08:27:56 am
Aurora Advanced Healthcare ?

Why would I post at this site ?
21641  General Politics / Economics / Re: Austria's budget deficit in 2011 down to 2.6%, debt remains at 72% on: April 06, 2012, 08:23:12 am
Has Austria managed to do this without unemployment rising considerably? Unemployment Sad concerns me more than deficits

Austria and Germany both have some of the lowest unemployment in the Western world and at least in Germany's case, the lowest it's been in many years.

More countries need to govern like the Germanic area Smiley

Well the official numbers claim that - but it all depends on how you count.
The unofficial numbers state that unemployment in Austria and Germany is two to three times higher than the official numbers would suggest.

Welcome Perun ... Smiley

Where are you from ?

As for your post: That's likely, but stuff like this with manipulating the statistics happens in almost any country.

The US would then have unemployment of about 20% instead of 8%, Germany would have 10-15%, Austria 8% and Greece, Spain etc. probably 30-40%.

So we have to go with the official statistics by EUROSTAT which apply the same measure from the ILO/OECD in all countries - and it's comparable.
21642  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IN-DePauw University/Howey Politics: Obama down 9 in first Indiana poll on: April 06, 2012, 07:54:55 am
I rememberr that we disd get an Indiana poll a while back and it showed pretty much the same result.

No, this is the 1st Indiana general election poll since November 2008.
21643  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Country's most incompetent elections administrator relieved of duty on: April 06, 2012, 12:43:06 am
21644  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / What is most likely ? on: April 06, 2012, 12:25:21 am
What do you say ?

Examples are:

Senator: Rubio
Governor: McDonnell
House: Ryan
Another politician: Bloomberg or Condi
Military: Powell, Petreaus
Someone else: Tim Tebow

I'd say he picks a Senator.
21645  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IN-DePauw University/Howey Politics: Obama down 9 in first Indiana poll on: April 06, 2012, 12:13:09 am
Definitely should be the first Obama '08 state to fall to the Republicans. Although Romney's lead seems pretty large considering that Obama is probably beating Romney nationally by about as much as he beat McCain by.

It's a uni poll anyway so whatever. Better than nothing, I guess.

Yeah.

As I've said before, I expected Romney to lead by 2-8 in the first IN polls, but we need at least 3 polls to see where IN stands right now, preferably one by Mason-Dixon. But Mason-Dixon only starts polling around the conventions.

In early 2008, there were also several polls that had McCain up by 10 in Indiana and Obama closed the gap later.

But as of now, probably "lean GOP", until we get a PPP, Mason-Dixon or SurveyUSA poll.
21646  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IN-DePauw University/Howey Politics: Obama down 9 in first Indiana poll on: April 05, 2012, 12:59:05 pm
So, Independents split 46.5 to 40.0 for Obama - if we assume that 50% of Independents are men and 50% women.

If we use a sample of 44% R, 34% D and 22% I - which is a mix of 2008 and 2004 exit poll data - the results would be:

50% Romney
40% Obama

using a 85-5 Romney win with Republicans and a 80-10 Obama win with Democrats.
21647  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IN-DePauw University/Howey Politics: Obama down 9 in first Indiana poll on: April 05, 2012, 12:52:58 pm
Independent men lean toward Romney 46%-42%, but independent women back Obama 51%-34%.

Wut ?

That would mean Obama leads by about 13 among Independents in Indiana !!!

That must be an abnormally GOP-leaning sample ... !!!

6.5 point lead.

And I can see
- more Rs than Ds
- Romney doing better among Ds than Obama among Rs

But it's weird for Obama to be down 9 in IN and up 4-5 in OH.  Are Daniels/Kasich that popular/unpopular?

6.5 lead ?

Ah, I see. Didn't divide the 17-4 in half.
21648  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IN-DePauw University/Howey Politics: Obama down 9 in first Indiana poll on: April 05, 2012, 12:46:13 pm
Independent men lean toward Romney 46%-42%, but independent women back Obama 51%-34%.

Wut ?

That would mean Obama leads by about 13 among Independents in Indiana !!!

That must be an abnormally GOP-leaning sample ... !!!

6.5 point lead.

And I can see
- more Rs than Ds
- Romney doing better among Ds than Obama among Rs

But it's weird for Obama to be down 9 in IN and up 4-5 in OH.  Are Daniels/Kasich that popular/unpopular?

6.5 lead ?
21649  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IN-DePauw University/Howey Politics: Obama down 9 in first Indiana poll on: April 05, 2012, 12:39:11 pm
Indiana is one of the most Republican states by partisan identification (and also there's the standard caveat about crosstabs).

In 2008, Obama won IN Independents by 11 in a R+5 sample.

And now he's winning Independents by about 13, yet trailing by 9 overall.

I'm trying to calculate what kind of sample they might have used here ...
21650  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IN-DePauw University/Howey Politics: Obama down 9 in first Indiana poll on: April 05, 2012, 12:26:14 pm
Independent men lean toward Romney 46%-42%, but independent women back Obama 51%-34%.

Wut ?

That would mean Obama leads by about 13 among Independents in Indiana !!!

That must be an abnormally GOP-leaning sample ... !!!
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