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21626  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria on: September 04, 2010, 11:52:14 am
Theres still a rather right race in Styria (also Gallup for 24):



The lead is bouncing back and forth from SP to VP. In one poll the VP is ahead by 2%, then in the next poll, its the SP by 2% and so on. I think if the race is tied until the end, I think Id give the VP the edge, because their voters are easier to mobilize.
21627  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria on: September 04, 2010, 11:43:26 am
More info for the Vienna State and District Elections:

Tomorrow at 1pm is the deadline for submitting signatures to be on the ballot in Vienna.

A party needs 2950 signatures to be on the ballot city-wide.

These parties have already qualified to run city-wide:

* SP (Social Democratic Party)
* VP (People's Party)
* FP (Freedom Party)
* Greens
* BZ (Alliance for the Future of Austria)
* KP (Communist Party)

These parties have almost all signatures collected to be on the ballot city-wide:

* LIF (Liberal Forum)

These parties have no chance to be on the ballot city-wide, but will appear in some districts:

* SLP (Socialist Left Party)
* DEM (Platform for Direct Democracy)
* JULIS (Young Liberals)
* Pirate Party
* MUT (Humans, Environment, Animal Rights)
* Liste Wien
* CP (Christian Party)
* KI (Communist Intiative)
* Aktive Arbeitslose (Active Unemployed)
* WIFF (Wir fr Floridsdorf)

Update:

The LIF has failed to be on the ballot city-wide. They were able to collect signatures in only 15 of the 18 districts.

Theres also a new Gallup/24 poll out today:

46% ( -3) SP
23% (+8) FP
16%  (-3) VP
10%  (-5) Greens
  2% (+1) BZ
  3% (+2) Others (KP)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100904_OTS0043/oesterreich-umfrage-fuer-wien-wahl-spoe-mit-46-fpoe-bei-23-gruene-nur-10

Theres also a new Profil/Karmasin Motivforschung poll:

"Do you favor or oppose the construction of new mosques with minarets in Austria ?"

35% Favor
52% Oppose
13% Undecided

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100904_OTS0008/profil-jeder-zweite-gegen-weitere-minarette-in-oesterreich
21628  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CA: Survey USA: Fiorina leads Boxer by 2 on: September 03, 2010, 11:57:25 pm
The Only Halfway-Sane Moderator Left (Sam Spade) now has poll entering rights ?

Good ... Smiley

Now please do the same with Mr. Moderate and ban Quincy.
21629  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / TX: Wilson Research (R): Internal shows Perry ahead by 12 on: September 03, 2010, 11:31:31 pm
50% Perry
38% White
  1% Others
11% Undecided

Wilson Research Strategies conducted a research study of likely voters throughout the state of Texas on behalf of GOPAC-TX.

Respondents were contacted by phone via a live telephone operator interview August 29-31, 2010. The study has a sample size of n=1001 Likely Voters. The margin of error is equal to 3.1% in 95 out of 100 cases. The sample was stratified to represent the district electorate based on race, age, gender, partisan identification, and geographic distribution.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/GOPAC-TX_State%20of%20the%20Race_Memo_100902.pdf
21630  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Opinion of the game "Mosque Bye-Bye" on: September 03, 2010, 11:24:12 pm
Game doesn't work.

Yes, because a federal prosecutor has ordered the game to be removed from the FP page.
21631  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Delaware on: September 03, 2010, 11:12:06 pm
Christine O'Donnell is trailing Rep.  Mike Castle by only 2% among voters most likely to turnout in the Delaware Senate GOP primary, according to a Tea Party Express poll.

The poll, obtained by Hotline On Call, found that among GOP voters who indicated they are most likely to vote -- or "10s" in polling lingo -- Castle leads O'Donnell 43% to 41%.

The Tea Party Express released the top line of the poll on Thursday. That showed O'Donnell trailing Castle by nearly 6%, 43.7% to 38%.

These new numbers suggest that Castle is significantly more vulnerable than originally believed.

However, it is worth taking these numbers with a grain of salt. The poll was conducted by NSON Opinion Research with live interviewers. It surveyed 300 DE Republican voters and has a margin of error of +/- 5.7%.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/09/tea_party_expre_2.php
21632  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / IL: Market Shares Corp.: Brady slightly ahead of Quinn on: September 03, 2010, 11:06:40 pm
New Poll: Illinois Governor by Market Shares Corp. on 2010-09-02

Summary: D: 32%, R: 37%, I: 8%, U: 19%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

21633  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / NH: Magellan Strategies (R): Ayotte leads in GOP Primary on: September 03, 2010, 10:55:50 pm
34% Ayotte
21% Lamontagne
17% Binnie
13% Bender
  4% Others
11% Undecided

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/New-Hampshire-GOP-US-Senate-Primary-Survey-Release-090110.pdf
21634  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / KY: cn|2-Braun Research: Paul leads Conway by 5 on: September 03, 2010, 10:53:56 pm


http://politics.mycn2.com/2010/09/02/rand-paul-regains-lead-in-u-s-senate-race-latest-cn2-poll-finds/
21635  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / NY: Rasmussen: Gillibrand above 50 against all challengers on: September 03, 2010, 10:50:55 pm
New Poll: New York Senator (Special) by Rasmussen on 2010-09-02

Summary: D: 51%, R: 31%, I: 5%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

21636  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / NV: Rasmussen: Reid slightly ahead with leaners on: September 03, 2010, 10:48:19 pm
Without leaners:

45% Reid
45% Angle

With leaners:

50% Reid
47% Angle

The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Nevada was conducted on September 1, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

LINK
21637  Election Archive / 2010 House Election Polls / Re: The 10 West Coast Polls for American Action Forum (R) on: September 02, 2010, 03:41:10 pm
What really worries me is the similarity with other recent polls in some of these races.

Check CO-03 (Magellan), NM-01 (Albuquerque Journal) and NV-03 (Mason-Dixon).

If this is true, the Democrats are really fu**ed.
21638  Election Archive / 2010 House Election Polls / The 10 West Coast Polls for American Action Forum (R) on: September 02, 2010, 03:28:35 pm
400 Likely Voters in each district:

AZ-01:

Paul Gosar (R): 47%
Ann Kirkpatrick (D): 41%

AZ-05:

David Schweikert (R): 50%
Harry Mitchell (D): 44%

AZ-08:

Gabrielle Giffords (D): 46%
Jesse Kelly (R): 46%

CA-11:

David Harmer (R): 45%
Jerry McNerney (D): 44%

CA-47:

Loretta Sanchez (D): 45%
Van Tran (R): 43%

CO-03:

Scott Tipton (R): 51%
John Salazar (D): 43%

CO-04:

Cory Gardner (R): 50%
Betsey Markey (D): 39%

NM-01:

Martin Heinrich (D): 49%
Jon Barela (R): 42%

NV-03:

Joe Heck (R): 48%
Dina Titus (D): 45%

OR-05:

Kurt Schrader (D): 44%
Scott Bruun (R): 36%

http://americanactionforum.org/polling-data-house-districts
21639  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria on: September 02, 2010, 03:02:52 pm
BTW:

Dont be too surprised if the Vienna Greens are not doing so well in the October elections.

Yesterday, a prominent Green member of the Federal Council of Austria - Stefan Schennach - changed parties and went over to the SP.

Schennach, from the Vienna Greens, was one of the people closest to Vienna Green leader and frontrunner Maria Vassilakou and also one of the people who knew most about the Green campaign strategy for the upcoming elections. She called Schennach's party change at this time in the campaign a disaster and that shes very angry about it.

The Vienna Greens are also in deep trouble because they split in 2 of their best districts, Mariahilf and Josefstadt. Now 2 Green lists will run in each of these dictricts, because of internal problems about the ballot-placement of frontrunners in these districts.
21640  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria on: September 02, 2010, 02:39:28 pm
More info for the Vienna State and District Elections:

Tomorrow at 1pm is the deadline for submitting signatures to be on the ballot in Vienna.

A party needs 2950 signatures to be on the ballot city-wide.

These parties have already qualified to run city-wide:

* SP (Social Democratic Party)
* VP (People's Party)
* FP (Freedom Party)
* Greens
* BZ (Alliance for the Future of Austria)
* KP (Communist Party)

These parties have almost all signatures collected to be on the ballot city-wide:

* LIF (Liberal Forum)

These parties have no chance to be on the ballot city-wide, but will appear in some districts:

* SLP (Socialist Left Party)
* DEM (Platform for Direct Democracy)
* JULIS (Young Liberals)
* Pirate Party
* MUT (Humans, Environment, Animal Rights)
* Liste Wien
* CP (Christian Party)
* KI (Communist Intiative)
* Aktive Arbeitslose (Active Unemployed)
* WIFF (Wir fr Floridsdorf)
21641  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria on: September 02, 2010, 02:08:11 pm
New Styria state elections poll by Market for the newspaper "Kleine Zeitung":



Direct vote for Governor:



...

Plus:

966.901 people aged 16 and over will be eligible to vote on September 26.

500.276 women and 466.625 men are eligible.

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/steiermark/landtagswahl/index.do
21642  Election Archive / 2010 House Election Polls / PA-12/Public Opinion Strategies/NRCC: Internal has Burns up by 5 on: September 02, 2010, 01:52:13 pm
Tim Burns (R): 48%
Mark Critz (D): 43%

Public Opinion Strategies, a GOP polling firm, conducted the poll with 400 likely voters from Aug. 23-24. The survey has a 4.9 point margin of error.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/09/burns-leads-critz-in-internal.html
21643  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: AK: Rasmussen: Parnell leads Berkowitz by double-digits on: September 02, 2010, 01:43:01 pm
Another bizarrely strong showing for a Democrat in Alaska.

Yepp and his lead is almost down by 20 points in 3 months.

Im already looking forward to the Idaho Governor poll by Rasmussen thats coming out later today, because this is another race where the Democrat is gaining ground rapidely.
21644  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / FL: Frederick Polls: Internal poll shows Crist tied with Rubio on: September 02, 2010, 01:37:20 pm
FrederickPolls, LLC for the Crist campaign:

Charlie Crist   35%
Marco Rubio   34%
Kendrick Meek   17%
Undecided   14%

Methodology

   Sample Size:  n=500
   Margin of Error:  4.4%
   Eligibility:  Likely voters
   Scope:  Statewide
   Interview Method:  Telephone
   Dates:  August 28-31, 2010
   Client:  Crist for Senate Campaign

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/09/02/crist_internal_poll_shows_tight_race.html
21645  Election Archive / 2010 House Election Polls / AK-AL/PPP: Rep. Young (R) leads by a good margin on: September 02, 2010, 01:27:00 pm
55% - Don Young (R)
36% - Harry Crawford (D)

PPP surveyed 1,306 likely Alaska voters on August 27th and 28th. The margin of error is +/-2.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AK_902.pdf
21646  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / SurveyUSA: Tight race for Louisville Mayor on: September 02, 2010, 01:16:48 pm
If the election for Louisville Metro Mayor were today, who would you vote for? Republican Hal Heiner? Democrat Greg Fischer? Independent Nimbus Couzin? Independent Jackie Green? Or Independent Jerry Mills?

47% - Fisher (D)
45% - Heiner (R)
  2% - Green (I)
  1% - Mills (I)
  5% - Undecided

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 adults from Jefferson County KY 08/27/10 through 08/30/10. Of them, 884 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 618 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. Incumbent mayor Jerry Abramson is running for Kentucky Lieutenant Governor in 2011 and is not seeking re-election as Metro Mayor.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c84db476-b33d-4d50-a6cb-521869f0b279
21647  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / AK: Rasmussen: Parnell leads Berkowitz by double-digits on: September 02, 2010, 01:11:41 pm
New Poll: Alaska Governor by Rasmussen on 2010-08-31

Summary: D: 43%, R: 53%, I: 2%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

21648  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / AK: Public Policy Polling: Parnell leads Berkowitz by double-digits on: September 02, 2010, 01:10:08 pm
New Poll: Alaska Governor by Public Policy Polling on 2010-08-28

Summary: D: 37%, R: 55%, I: 0%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

21649  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: PPP- PALIN SECOND PLACE TO ROMNEY IN ALASKA!!!!!!! on: September 02, 2010, 12:48:03 am
Yes and they were wrong back then.

The notion that Miller came back in the last two weeks from thirty points down is bs.  if that were true, they wouldn't have split the absentees evenly.

The polls were always wrong about Murkowski, Miller, and Palin.

That was 1 opinion of the PPP guy 3 months before the primary, not a poll.
21650  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Delaware on: September 02, 2010, 12:45:31 am
I believe Castle will win the primary by a comfortable margin (10%+).

...

Plus:

Quote
But despite the parallels, Tom Jensen, Director of the North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling says this endorsement may not help O'Donnell as much as it did Miller.

But Jensen tells WDEL News they're keeping a watchful eye on the Delaware Senate race, and just may survey voters next weekend ahead of the state primary to find out whether the endorsement has changed things.

http://www.wdel.com/story.php?id=590943176582
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