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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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21626  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Manchin appoints Byrd replacement on: July 20, 2010, 01:32:14 pm
So, who´ll become Governor now ?
21627  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Georgia Megathread on: July 20, 2010, 01:02:08 pm
WTF @ NEW POLLS.

I don't know how to add polls to the database, but two new polls hot off the presses.

A Magellan Strategies poll done yesterday evening has the following results:

Handel: 38%
Deal: 20%
Johnson: 17%
Oxendine: 12%
Other: 6%
Undecided: 7%

A new Insider Advantage poll shows similar results:

Handel: 28%
Deal: 17%
Johnson: 14%
Oxendine: 13%
Chapman: 6%
McBerry: 3%
Undecided: 19%

Basically, WOW. Oxendine has crashed entirely. I mean, I knew this was coming to an extent, but not this bad. It's looking like Handel in first with Deal and Johnson fighting for the other spot in the runoff. Noting the differences between the two polls it looks like there are a lot of undecided voters leaning towards Handel (I'm assuming Magellan pushes people to pick a candidate more than Insider); she's definitely the frontrunner now.

If Oxendine somehow wins today, SurveyUSA as the only pollster with an Oxendine lead, will be king, otherwise - if Handel wins - they will be the big looooooser.
21628  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / WI-Magellan Strategies (R): Feingold beats Johnson by 2 on: July 20, 2010, 12:59:36 pm
Feingold (D): 45%
Johnson (R): 43%
Others: 4%
Undecided: 9%

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Magellan-Wisconsin-US-Senate-Elena-Kagan-Survey-Press-Release-072010.pdf
21629  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: July 20, 2010, 12:58:11 pm
WI (Magellan Strategies): 41-52

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Magellan-Wisconsin-US-Senate-Elena-Kagan-Survey-Press-Release-072010.pdf
21630  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Dem internal: Lincoln cuts Boozman's large lead on: July 20, 2010, 12:52:26 pm
I'm sorry but 46-36 is "cutting a large lead"?

Since the hell when?

Because "real" polls show a 30% deficit ... Tongue
21631  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: July 20, 2010, 12:49:46 pm
FL (PPP): 45-49

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_FL_720.pdf

NV (PPP): 44-52

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NV_720.pdf
21632  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: July 20, 2010, 12:45:15 pm
OH (Rasmussen): 46-54

Link
21633  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / OH: Rasmussen: Portman beats Fisher by 6 on: July 20, 2010, 12:43:01 pm
New Poll: Ohio Senator by Rasmussen on 2010-07-19

Summary: D: 39%, R: 45%, I: 5%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

21634  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: July 20, 2010, 12:42:23 am
NJ (Monmouth University):

Adults: 52-42

Registered Voters: 51-42

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP34_3.pdf
21635  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MI-Glengariff Group: Cox & Hoekstra tied in GOP primary on: July 20, 2010, 12:32:51 am
Dillon still leads on the DEM side:




http://www.detnews.com/article/20100719/POLITICS02/7190412/1022/News-poll--Bernero-gains-on-Dillon-in-Dem-race
21636  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / KS-SurveyUSA: Tiahrt gains against Moran on: July 20, 2010, 12:27:10 am
Moran: 50% (-3)
Tiahrt: 36% (+3)
Little: 3%
Londerholm: 2%
Undecided: 9%



Dems:

Johnston: 23%
Schollenberger: 14%
Haley: 12%
Conroy: 7%
Wiesner: 7%
Undecided: 36%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5ce14789-b02f-45dc-b1f6-e90c446f9851
21637  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: July 20, 2010, 12:21:41 am
PA (Rasmussen): 45-54

Link
21638  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / ME: Rasmussen: LePage (R) gains on Mitchell (D), Cutler (I) takes Democratic votes on: July 20, 2010, 12:17:53 am
New Poll: Maine Governor by Rasmussen on 2010-07-15

Summary: D: 31%, R: 39%, I: 15%, U: 15%

LePage carries 78% of Republican votes, while Mitchell captures just 52% of Democrats. Cutler wins 20% of Democrats and five percent (5%) of Republicans. Among voters not affiliated with either major party in the state, LePage picks up 41% support to Mitchell's 18% and Cutler's 16%.

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

21639  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AR-Magellan Strategies (R): Boozman keeps large lead over Lincoln on: July 20, 2010, 12:13:12 am
Much like the Zata 3 poll, we shouldn´t add this to the database either.

Zata 3 is a hardcore DEM pollster, Magellan is a hardcore GOP pollster.
21640  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: July 20, 2010, 12:11:39 am
Maine (Rasmussen): 50-49

Link

Arkansas (Magellan Strategies-R): 26-69

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Magellan-AR-US-Senate-Kagan-Nomination-Press-Release-071910.pdf

Nebraska (Magellan Strategies-R): 30-63

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Magellan-NE-2012-US-Senate-Kagan-Nomination-Survey-Press-Release-071910.pdf
21641  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / AR-Magellan Strategies (R): Boozman keeps large lead over Lincoln on: July 20, 2010, 12:07:11 am
JOHN BOOZMAN 59.9%
BLANCHE LINCOLN 29.4%
OTHER CANDIDATE 4.2%
UNDECIDED 6.4%

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Magellan-AR-US-Senate-Kagan-Nomination-Press-Release-071910.pdf
21642  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / GA-Magellan Strategies: Handel with big lead in final polling on: July 20, 2010, 12:05:02 am
KAREN HANDEL 37.6%
NATHAN DEAL 19.9%
ERIC JOHNSON 17.1%
JOHN OXENDINE 12.4%
JEFF CHAPMAN 3.2%
RAY MCBERRY 2.8%
OTIS PUTNAM 0.3%
UNDECIDED 6.7%

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Georgia-Governor-GOP-Primary-Survey-Release-0719102.pdf
21643  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / GA-InsiderAdvantage: Handel widening her lead on: July 20, 2010, 12:02:39 am
Handel, 28%
Deal, 17%
Johnson, 14%
Oxendine, 13%
Chapman, 6%
McBerry, 3%
Putnam, 0%
Undecided, 19%

The survey was conducted among 1,619 registered voters who said they either have or are likely to vote in the Republican primary. It was weighted for age, race and gender, and has a margin of error of 2.3 percentage points.

http://southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_719_1510.aspx
21644  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Politico Poll: Obama trails "Generic Republican", but leads "real" Republicans on: July 19, 2010, 12:41:45 am
"Generic Republican": 42%
Barack Obama: 37%
Others: 4%
Undecided: 18%

Barack Obama: 48%
Sarah Palin: 36%
Undecided: 16%

Barack Obama: 39%
Mitt Romney: 35%
Undecided: 26%

Barack Obama: 39%
Tim Pawlenty: 21%
Undecided: 40%

Barack Obama: 39%
Mike Huckabee: 35%
Undecided: 25%

Barack Obama: 39%
Haley Barbour: 21%
Undecided: 40%

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM136_100718_poll_report.html
21645  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AR-Talk Business/Zata 3 Consulting: Boozman beats Lincoln by 25% on: July 19, 2010, 12:28:42 am
Their April 13 DEM primary poll had it

Lincoln 38%, Halter 31% and Morrisson 10%.

http://talkbusiness.net/article/TALK-BUSINESS-POLL-U-S-SENATE-RACE-DEMOCRATS/156/

Otherwise I´ve never heard of that pollster.
21646  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AR-Talk Business/Zata 3 Consulting: Boozman beats Lincoln by 25% on: July 19, 2010, 12:22:30 am
Looking at their homepage, Zata 3 seems to be a company with primarily Democratic clients.
21647  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / AR-Talk Business/Zata 3 Consulting: Gov. Beebe beats Keet by only 9% on: July 19, 2010, 12:19:30 am
Mike Beebe (D): 49.3%
Jim Keet (R): 40.3%
Undecided: 10.3%

Methodology: We used IVR survey technology to complete 793 surveys statewide throughout the day on 7/17/2010. All respondents self identified as very likely or somewhat likely to vote in the November election. We asked seven questions in this survey. This IVR survey of 793 sample size has a margin of error of +/- 3.7% . These results include demographic breakdowns but sample sizes are too small to draw detailed conclusions on race/age/gender. A larger sample with a longer questionnaire would yield better cross-tabulations. See weighting assumptions on following page as different assumptions about turnout by ethnicity, age or gender would alter results.

Independent analyses from publications such as the Wall Street Journal, National Council on Public Polls, American Association of Public Opinion Research, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com, and The Pew Research Center all show automated, recorded voice surveys used to record candidate preferences have an accuracy level comparable to live interviewer surveys.

Notes on Weighting:

The sample was weighted as noted below at the instruction of the client.

• Congressional District

o CD 1 24%
o CD 2 26%
o CD 3 26%
o CD 4 24%

After the completion of the survey, we weighted the results as follows:

• Gender

o Women 52%
o Men 48%

• Age

o Ages 40 and under: 25%
o Ages 41 to 59: 30%
o Ages 60+: 45%

• Ethnicity

o African American:13%
o White: 82%
o Other: 5%

About Zata|3 Consulting. We are a Washington, DC-based consulting firm that works for Democrats and progressive causes. We have worked before in Arkansas on behalf of numerous Democratic candidates and organizations. Our website is www.zata3.com

http://www.talkbusiness.net/assets/files/TalkBizPoll071710.pdf
21648  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AR-Talk Business/Zata 3 Consulting: Boozman beats Lincoln by 25% on: July 19, 2010, 12:15:26 am
Their age weightings are really off (45% are over 60, WTF ?), but otherwise the overall result seems to be OK.
21649  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / AR-Talk Business/Zata 3 Consulting: Boozman beats Lincoln by 25% on: July 19, 2010, 12:12:19 am
John Boozman (R): 57.2%
Blanche Lincoln (D): 32.3%
Trevor Drown (I): 3.3%
John Gray (G): 1.7%
Undecided: 5.6%

Methodology: We used IVR survey technology to complete 793 surveys statewide throughout the day on 7/17/2010. All respondents self identified as very likely or somewhat likely to vote in the November election. We asked seven questions in this survey. This IVR survey of 793 sample size has a margin of error of +/- 3.7% . These results include demographic breakdowns but sample sizes are too small to draw detailed conclusions on race/age/gender. A larger sample with a longer questionnaire would yield better cross-tabulations. See weighting assumptions on following page as different assumptions about turnout by ethnicity, age or gender would alter results.

Independent analyses from publications such as the Wall Street Journal, National Council on Public Polls, American Association of Public Opinion Research, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com, and The Pew Research Center all show automated, recorded voice surveys used to record candidate preferences have an accuracy level comparable to live interviewer surveys.

Notes on Weighting:

The sample was weighted as noted below at the instruction of the client.

• Congressional District

o CD 1 24%
o CD 2 26%
o CD 3 26%
o CD 4 24%

After the completion of the survey, we weighted the results as follows:

• Gender

o Women 52%
o Men 48%

• Age

o Ages 40 and under: 25%
o Ages 41 to 59: 30%
o Ages 60+: 45%

• Ethnicity

o African American:13%
o White: 82%
o Other: 5%

About Zata|3 Consulting. We are a Washington, DC-based consulting firm that works for Democrats and progressive causes. We have worked before in Arkansas on behalf of numerous Democratic candidates and organizations. Our website is www.zata3.com

http://www.talkbusiness.net/assets/files/TalkBizPoll071710.pdf
21650  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / MI-Glengariff Group: Cox & Hoekstra tied in GOP primary on: July 18, 2010, 11:52:29 pm



Other poll findings

* 71 percent of Republican primary voters say they're most concerned about fiscal issues, compared to 16 percent who say social issues.

* 59 percent say it's somewhat or very important that candidates are opposed to abortion and endorsed by anti-abortion groups.

* 85 percent disapprove of President Obama's job performance.

* 96 percent disapprove of Gov. Jennifer Granholm's job performance.

* 89 percent say Michigan is on the wrong track.

* 90 percent say the nation is on the wrong track.

* 68 percent say it is not important if a candidate has union support.

Coming Tuesday

Who leads in the Democratic primary between House Speaker Andy Dillon and Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero?

The Detroit News, Local 4 team up for political polling

The Detroit News and Local 4 WDIV have entered a new partnership to present political polling and analysis this election season. The News and Local 4 have teamed up with the Chicago-based Glengariff Group, a market research firm founded in 1998 by Richard Czuba, a former state tourism official who has a long familiarity with politics in Michigan. Look for public opinion research and analysis on all the major candidates and issues from The News, Local 4 and the Glengariff Group through the November general election.

http://www.detnews.com/article/20100718/POLITICS02/7180331/News-poll--GOP-s-gov-hopefuls-locked-in-3-way-race
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