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21626  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: March 24, 2011, 01:58:46 am
CA (PPIC):

Adults: 56-38

Registered Voters: 54-42

Likely Voters: 52-44

Findings are based on a telephone survey of 2,000 California adult residents interviewed on landlines and cell phones from March 8–15, 2011. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish according to respondents’ preferences. The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±2.8 percent for all adults, ±3.7 percent for the 1,328 registered voters, and ±4.2 percent for the 935 likely voters.

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/APR_Obama0311.pdf
21627  General Politics / Economics / Re: March Jobs Report on: March 24, 2011, 01:43:12 am
We are getting close to the end of the month of March, which means the monthly jobs report is getting closer.  What do you think the report will show?

Also, a question that I don't know, The reports are always issued on the first Friday of the month and the first Friday of April is on the 1st, so will the report be released on April 1 or 8 to give it time for the data to be tabulated?

BLS says April 1 for the March numbers.

BTW, I'd say about 250.000 jobs were created and the rate is down to 8.7%
21628  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: March 24, 2011, 01:32:01 am
lol lol lol lol

I have a hard enough time buying Rasmussen's numbers, these are just silly.

It has to do with the fact that Hillary2012 not only posts an Internet poll by Harris, but the fact that it's also an "Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor" poll, which cannot be compared with "Approve/Disapprove" polls. A really good number of "Fair" voters would vote "Approve" in such a poll, therefore Harris' model underestimates Obama's support by at least 5%.

And pbrower, you need to change the code in your map for DC:

DC=2;C;9&FL=4;A;3&GA=4;S;5

to

DC=3;C;9&FL=4;A;3&GA=4;S;5
21629  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: You can vote @ PPP again: This time for 2 states ! on: March 23, 2011, 01:52:58 pm
Florida and Mississippi will likely be polled this weekend.

Florida has 36% and Mississippi has 28%.
21630  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / NC-PPP: Obama ties Huckabee, leads everybody else on: March 23, 2011, 01:14:14 pm
Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 48%
Disapprove...................................................... 46%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 45%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 45%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 44%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 42%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 42%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 40%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_03231118.pdf

The new map:

(There are conflicting Obama-Romney polls in MI and NH)

Obama vs. Huckabee



Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Gingrich



Obama vs. Palin

21631  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 State Elections in Germany on: March 23, 2011, 11:46:51 am
Am I right when I say that CDU-FDP would still be favored in a tied situation, because of the electoral law that would give the CDU a lot of Überhangmandate ?

No. In Baden-Württemberg it gives Ausgleichsmadate. When the CDU get 10 Überhangmandate, the other parties get 10 mandates more.

This article says something else:

http://www.taz.de/1/politik/schwerpunkt-wahl-in-baden-wuerttemberg/artikel/1/wahlrecht-koennte-der-cdu-helfen/

Even though the CDU gets Überhangmandate and the other parties therefore get Ausgleichsmandate, the CDU is still much more favored.

In 2006, the CDU won 44.2% of the vote, but got 49.6% of the seats, despite all the Ausgleichsmandate for the other parties.

This means the CDU still has a big structural advantage going into this election.

The Election Law of 2011 isn't the same from 2006. If it is a very close victory of Red-Green it is possible that Black-Yellow can have 1 mandate more. But in this election I don't see this. The CDU won't win all Constituencies. The SPD will win some in Indusrial cities like Mannheim and the Greens will win in University Cities like Freiburg and Tübingen.

What are the districts that can actually be won by the Greens this time ?

I think we need districts where the Greens had at least 15% last time and where the CDU had less than or around 40% support. This includes:

Ulm
Konstanz
Reutlingen
Stuttgart II
Stuttgart IV
Ludwigsburg
Karlsruhe I
Karlsruhe II
Mannheim II

But in order to win, I think only districts where the Greens had more than 20% in 2006 and the CDU less than 40% can be considered swing districts. This includes:

Freiburg I
Freiburg II
Tübingen
Stuttgart I
Heidelberg

For comparison purposes:



The SPD could win Mannheim I again and maybe a few others.
21632  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / MI-PPP: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) now leads all Republicans by double-digits on: March 23, 2011, 11:09:31 am
Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Debbie Stabenow's job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 46%
Disapprove...................................................... 39%

If the candidates for US Senate next year were Democrat Debbie Stabenow and Republican Terri Lynn Land, who would you vote for?

Debbie Stabenow ........................................... 48%
Terri Lynn Land ............................................... 38%

If the candidates for US Senate next year were Democrat Debbie Stabenow and Republican Pete Hoekstra, who would you vote for?

Debbie Stabenow ........................................... 50%
Pete Hoekstra ................................................. 38%

If the candidates for US Senate next year were Democrat Debbie Stabenow and Republican Saul Anuzis, who would you vote for?

Debbie Stabenow ........................................... 52%
Saul Anuzis ..................................................... 35%

If the candidates for US Senate next year were Democrat Debbie Stabenow and Republican Randy Hekman, who would you vote for?

Debbie Stabenow ........................................... 52%
Randy Hekman ............................................... 33%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MI_0323513.pdf
21633  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: March 23, 2011, 11:05:13 am
pbrower, you need to change your map for DC.

DC is still blue on it, it needs to be dark green.
21634  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: You can vote @ PPP again: This time for 2 states ! on: March 23, 2011, 11:01:22 am
I think FL, NH and MS are interesting.

But I like MS and FL now to see whats up with the Governor's race, how Scott does and how Obama does in MS.

NH will be polled very often by other companies anyway, MS not.
21635  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 State Elections in Germany on: March 23, 2011, 10:45:46 am
I understand that it's an issue that many feel strongly about, but if we could please keep the nuclear discussion the IGD board?

That will probably not be possible, because nuclear energy is an integral part of this state election.
21636  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Pew Research: Romney & Huckabee ahead on: March 23, 2011, 10:43:35 am
21% Romney
20% Huckabee
13% Palin
11% Gingrich
  8% Paul
  3% Pawlenty
  2% Daniels
  2% Santorum
  2% Barbour
  2% Christie
  1% Other
  5% None of them
10% Undecided

http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/720.pdf
21637  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 State Elections in Germany on: March 23, 2011, 06:56:02 am
Am I right when I say that CDU-FDP would still be favored in a tied situation, because of the electoral law that would give the CDU a lot of Überhangmandate ?

No. In Baden-Württemberg it gives Ausgleichsmadate. When the CDU get 10 Überhangmandate, the other parties get 10 mandates more.

This article says something else:

http://www.taz.de/1/politik/schwerpunkt-wahl-in-baden-wuerttemberg/artikel/1/wahlrecht-koennte-der-cdu-helfen/

Even though the CDU gets Überhangmandate and the other parties therefore get Ausgleichsmandate, the CDU is still much more favored.

In 2006, the CDU won 44.2% of the vote, but got 49.6% of the seats, despite all the Ausgleichsmandate for the other parties.

This means the CDU still has a big structural advantage going into this election.
21638  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: March 23, 2011, 05:29:52 am
California (Field Poll):



Re-elect Obama as President?

In this survey, California voters were asked whether they were inclined or not inclined to re-elect Obama to another term. The results show that 49% of voters currently favor his re-election, while 40% do not.

Obama’s re-election percentages in California compare favorably to those of his two immediate predecessors in office.

In July 2003, during the third year of Republican President George W. Bush’s first term, a Field Poll showed that California voters were about evenly split about his re-election — 46% inclined and 44% disinclined.. While Bush narrowly won reelection nationally, he ended up losing California to Democrat Senator John Kerry by ten points.

In 1995, during the third year of Democratic President Bill Clinton’s first term, more Californians were disinclined (56%) than inclined (36%) to re-elect him to another term. National polls at the time were showing similar sentiments among U.S. voters. However, the mood of voters here and countrywide swung around and Clinton was re-elected in 1996. In that election he carried California by thirteen points over Republican Senator Bob Dole.

http://media.sacbee.com/smedia/2011/03/22/15/fieldpoll.source.prod_affiliate.4.pdf
21639  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Ohio voters say Gov. Kasich (R) suxx, want Strickland back as Governor on: March 23, 2011, 05:17:45 am
A third poll shows Kasich with very weak numbers, this time Quinnipiac:

Ohio voters disapprove 46 - 30 percent of the way Gov. John Kasich is handling his job, with women disapproving 48 - 25 percent and men disapproving 44 - 37 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Voters say 53 - 36 percent that Gov. Kasich's budget is unfair to them.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1570
21640  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Who would you vote for ... on: March 23, 2011, 02:32:34 am
I'd vote for the Greens of course.

Please also post who you think will prevail after the elections.

The CDU-FDP government, Green-Red, Red-Green or CDU-SPD ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baden-W%C3%BCrttemberg_state_election,_2011
21641  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 State Elections in Germany on: March 23, 2011, 02:24:21 am
Smiley



"We choose Nuclear Energy"
21642  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 State Elections in Germany on: March 23, 2011, 02:11:12 am
Times are getting rough for CDU-FDP.

New Forsa poll out today:

33%  (-3) CDU/CSU
25%  (-1) SPD
20% (+2) Greens
  9%  (nc) Left
  5%  (nc) FDP
  8% (+2) Others
21643  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / You can vote @ PPP again: This time for 2 states ! on: March 23, 2011, 02:04:48 am
PPP will poll 2 states again this weekend, here is what you can choose:

-Delaware. One of the states with both a Gubernatorial and Senate race next year that we haven't polled yet. I know you're all dying to see how Christine O'Donnell would do against Tom Carper.

-Florida. The Senate race is starting to take shape a little bit more, the Republican primary for President's an important one, and if voters didn't like Rick Scott when we polled in December what do they think now?

-Mississippi. Another state that has the trifecta of a Gubernatorial race (open seat), marginally interesting Presidential race (Gallup showed Barack Obama with good numbers in the state in 2010), and a Senate race. Plus is this one of the states enthusiastic about a native son gunning for the White House, or not so much?

-New Hampshire. Actually more interested in the general election than the primary here because there's been conflicting polling and we found enough slippage for Obama in Maine that if the same has happened in New Hampshire he's in real trouble. Also interested in seeing if support coalesces around anyone against Romney if you take Huckabee and/or Palin out of the mix.

-Vermont. Interested in seeing if Bernie Sanders really has anything to worry about and how voters are responding to Peter Shumlin, given that he has to go right back on the ballot next year.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/03/and-finalists-are.html
21644  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: March 23, 2011, 01:55:20 am
YESS ! Finally we got a DC poll ( I think this is the first DC poll ever):

District of Columbia/Clarus Poll:

88% Approve

The Clarus Poll was conducted March 21-22, 2011 with a sample of 500 registered voters. Margin of error is +/- 4.4 percent. Interviews were conducted by live telephone interviewing specialists. Clarus conducted this survey for its own use. No client, candidate, or political committee sponsored or paid for this survey.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/clarus-poll-of-dc-voters-mayor-gray-posts-negative-job-rating-118481494.html
21645  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2015 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / ATTENTION: How to properly post 2011 polls, a.k.a Board Rules on: March 23, 2011, 01:49:58 am
I hereby announce the following rules for this board:

SUPREME RULE:

Only post scientific polls from legitimate pollsters, such as pollsters for News Organisations (CNN, FOX, MSNBC, CBS, NYT etc.) or public pollsters such as Mason-Dixon, SurveyUSA, PPP, Rasmussen or University polls.

If someone posts a personal poll, I will either move it to another section, or delete it.

MINOR RULES:

* If you post a poll, please indicate in the heading which state it is for, normally with a shortening of the state's name like "KY" for Kentucky, or just write the whole state name.

* Please also state the pollsters name in the heading and if it is not a regular pollster like the ones mentioned above, but a partsian one, please insert a (D) or a (R) after the pollsters name.

* Please indicate internal polls if you are quite sure that it is one. Internal polls are conducted by partisan pollsters and normally have something like "to interested parties" or the campaign name of their client in the press release.

* In the main text space, please then post the topline results of the poll, either in text form or numbers and - very importantly - post the link of the source.

* When you enter polls to the database, please read the internals of the poll carefully and enter the values accordingly. If you want to enter a poll from a pollster that is not in the list, please PM me, so I can put it into the database. Dave has given me - and only me so far - the rights to enter the name of the pollster manually. By PM'ing me we can avoid that the database is full of "Other Source" polls.

So, please follow these basic rules because I have other stuff to do as well, not only correct stupid mistakes.

Also: If you have other questions about how to post polls here or in the case you are not sure what to do, feel free to post here and the 3 moderators (Nym, Mr. Morden and me) will help you out.

So, enjoy the postings and discussions any may you find many polls.

Wink
21646  Election Archive / 2012 Gubernatorial Election Polls / ATTENTION: How to properly post 2012 polls, a.k.a Board Rules on: March 23, 2011, 01:49:06 am
I hereby announce the following rules for this board:

SUPREME RULE:

Only post scientific polls from legitimate pollsters, such as pollsters for News Organisations (CNN, FOX, MSNBC, CBS, NYT etc.) or public pollsters such as Mason-Dixon, SurveyUSA, PPP, Rasmussen or University polls.

If someone posts a personal poll, I will either move it to another section, or delete it.

MINOR RULES:

* If you post a poll, please indicate in the heading which state it is for, normally with a shortening of the state's name like "CA" for California, or just write the whole state name.

* Please also state the pollsters name in the heading and if it is not a regular pollster like the ones mentioned above, but a partsian one, please insert a (D) or a (R) after the pollsters name.

* Please indicate internal polls if you are quite sure that it is one. Internal polls are conducted by partisan pollsters and normally have something like "to interested parties" or the campaign name of their client in the press release.

* In the main text space, please then post the topline results of the poll, either in text form or numbers and - very importantly - post the link of the source.

* When 2012 rolls around, Dave will also provide the 2012 Poll Database again, but rules about how to enter polls to this database will follow when this database is set up.

So, please follow these basic rules because I have other stuff to do as well, not only correct stupid mistakes, especially if 2012 rolls around and 20-30 polls are posted here each day.

Also: If you have other questions about how to post polls here or in the case you are not sure what to do, feel free to post here and the 2 moderators (Sam Spade and me) will help you out.

So, enjoy the postings and discussions any may you find many polls.

Wink
21647  Election Archive / 2012 House Election Polls / ATTENTION: How to properly post 2012 polls, a.k.a Board Rules on: March 23, 2011, 01:48:18 am
I hereby announce the following rules for this board:

SUPREME RULE:

Only post scientific polls from legitimate pollsters, such as pollsters for News Organisations (CNN, FOX, MSNBC, CBS, NYT etc.) or public pollsters such as Mason-Dixon, SurveyUSA, PPP, Rasmussen or University polls.

If someone posts a personal poll, I will either move it to another section, or delete it.

MINOR RULES:

* If you post a poll, please indicate in the heading which state it is for, normally with a shortening of the state's name like "CA" for California, or just write the whole state name.

* Please also state the pollsters name in the heading and if it is not a regular pollster like the ones mentioned above, but a partsian one, please insert a (D) or a (R) after the pollsters name.

* Please indicate internal polls if you are quite sure that it is one. Internal polls are conducted by partisan pollsters and normally have something like "to interested parties" or the campaign name of their client in the press release.

* In the main text space, please then post the topline results of the poll, either in text form or numbers and - very importantly - post the link of the source.

* When 2012 rolls around, Dave will also provide the 2012 Poll Database again, but rules about how to enter polls to this database will follow when this database is set up.

So, please follow these basic rules because I have other stuff to do as well, not only correct stupid mistakes, especially if 2012 rolls around and 20-30 polls are posted here each day.

Also: If you have other questions about how to post polls here or in the case you are not sure what to do, feel free to post here and the 2 moderators (Sam Spade and me) will help you out.

So, enjoy the postings and discussions any may you find many polls.

Wink
21648  Election Archive / 2012 Senatorial Election Polls / ATTENTION: How to properly post 2012 polls, a.k.a Board Rules on: March 23, 2011, 01:47:21 am
I hereby announce the following rules for this board:

SUPREME RULE:

Only post scientific polls from legitimate pollsters, such as pollsters for News Organisations (CNN, FOX, MSNBC, CBS, NYT etc.) or public pollsters such as Mason-Dixon, SurveyUSA, PPP, Rasmussen or University polls.

If someone posts a personal poll, I will either move it to another section, or delete it.

MINOR RULES:

* If you post a poll, please indicate in the heading which state it is for, normally with a shortening of the state's name like "CA" for California, or just write the whole state name.

* Please also state the pollsters name in the heading and if it is not a regular pollster like the ones mentioned above, but a partsian one, please insert a (D) or a (R) after the pollsters name.

* Please indicate internal polls if you are quite sure that it is one. Internal polls are conducted by partisan pollsters and normally have something like "to interested parties" or the campaign name of their client in the press release.

* In the main text space, please then post the topline results of the poll, either in text form or numbers and - very importantly - post the link of the source.

* When 2012 rolls around, Dave will also provide the 2012 Poll Database again, but rules about how to enter polls to this database will follow when this database is set up.

So, please follow these basic rules because I have other stuff to do as well, not only correct stupid mistakes, especially if 2012 rolls around and 20-30 polls are posted here each day.

Also: If you have other questions about how to post polls here or in the case you are not sure what to do, feel free to post here and the 2 moderators (Sam Spade and me) will help you out.

So, enjoy the postings and discussions any may you find many polls.

Wink
21649  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ATTENTION: How to properly post 2012 polls, a.k.a Board Rules on: March 23, 2011, 01:40:26 am
congrats

and perhaps include an 'ideal example' as a model for ppl to copy

I think people just need to look at the polls that are already posted out there and they know what to do ... Wink
21650  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / ATTENTION: How to properly post 2012 polls, a.k.a Board Rules on: March 23, 2011, 01:27:38 am
I hereby announce the following rules for this board:

SUPREME RULE:

Only post scientific polls from legitimate pollsters, such as pollsters for News Organisations (CNN, FOX, MSNBC, CBS, NYT etc.) or public pollsters such as Mason-Dixon, SurveyUSA, PPP, Rasmussen or University polls.

If someone posts a personal poll, I will either move it to another section, or delete it.

MINOR RULES:

* If you post a poll, please indicate in the heading which state it is for, normally with a shortening of the state's name like "CA" for California, or just write the whole state name.

* Please also state the pollsters name in the heading and it it is not a regular pollster like the ones mentioned above, but a partsian one, please insert a (D) or a (R) after the pollsters name.

* Please indicate internal polls if you are quite sure that it is one. Internal polls are conducted by partisan pollsters and normally have something like "to interested parties" or the campaign name of their client in the press release.

* In the main text space, please then post the topline results of the poll, either in text form or numbers and - very importantly - post the link of the source.

* When 2012 rolls around, Dave will also provide the 2012 Poll Database again, but rules about how to enter polls to this database will follow when this database is set up.

* UPDATE September 1, 2011

When entering a poll, there is an option in the matrix called:

Forum Thread?   New: [...] None: [...] Link Existing: [...] Topic ID: [...]

First go here

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?board=90.0

and check if this poll has already a thread.

If it does, click to LINK EXISTING and put in the topic ID.

Because if you click "New", we have it twice in there.

...

When entering a poll, please also check carefully if you can find the source in the source list.

If you don't find the source, you can PM me, because Dave has given me the rights to put in a source name.

Also: Before you enter the poll, make sure that every data you put in is the same like in the original poll.

...

So, please follow these basic rules because I have other stuff to do as well, not only correct stupid mistakes, especially if 2012 rolls around and 20-30 polls are posted here each day.

Also: If you have other questions about how to post polls here or in the case you are not sure what to do, feel free to post here and the 3 moderators (Nym, Mr. Morden and me) will help you out.

So, enjoy the postings and discussions any may you find many polls.

Wink
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