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21626  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: T-Paw is done on: August 14, 2011, 08:07:15 am
That`s strange. He didn't do too badly after all with a 3rd place. He should have at least waited for the caucuses and New Hampshire. Not that he would have won anything, but the bigger the field, the better.
21627  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: With the Straw Poll now over ... on: August 14, 2011, 08:04:19 am
Thx.

Do you know how many people will attend or cast votes in this P-5 straw poll ?
21628  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays on: August 14, 2011, 03:56:16 am
Interesting. I bet Delaware would support it at this point too.

PPP did a poll for the Delaware Right to Marry PAC in Feb. 2011. The results were:

48% Favor
47% Oppose

http://www.delawareliberal.net/2011/02/09/large-plurality-of-delaware-supports-marriage-equality

Nice. Time to update the map? I think Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin are going to be the next states supporting it. Hawaii might already support it too.

I don't use polls for "Pro Gay Marriage" or "Pro Man/Woman Marriage" groups in my map.

But you can help me look for other polls in states that I have not coloured so far.
21629  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / With the Straw Poll now over ... on: August 14, 2011, 03:50:36 am
what are next really or somewhat important events until January 2012 ?
21630  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What are your computer specs? on: August 14, 2011, 03:40:31 am
I have a 2006 or 2007 HP Pavilion Desktop PC.

The specs are:

Intel Core 2 Quad 2.4 GHz
4GB RAM
500GB harddisk
GeForce 8600GT graphics card (512MB)

Also, a Samsung flatscreen monitor (23 inch).
21631  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays on: August 14, 2011, 02:20:39 am
Interesting. I bet Delaware would support it at this point too.

PPP did a poll for the Delaware Right to Marry PAC in Feb. 2011. The results were:

48% Favor
47% Oppose

http://www.delawareliberal.net/2011/02/09/large-plurality-of-delaware-supports-marriage-equality
21632  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: El Paso vs. Ciudad Juárez on: August 14, 2011, 01:10:56 am
Well, Ciudad Juárez is in the middle of a war between druglords and government.
I'm sure than that homicide rate is normal for a place experiencing a civil war.

But isn't it strange that there's no "spillover" from Ciudad Juárez to El Paso ?

El Paso has a homicide rate that is about the European average or even lower and almost 10 times lower than the average rate in a US city with comparable size ...

Does anyone who knows the area can tell us if there are tough border controls between the cities incl. walls and fences with video surveillance ?
21633  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / El Paso vs. Ciudad Juárez on: August 14, 2011, 12:55:21 am
2 statistics:

2010 population in El Paso, TX: 649.000
2010 homicides in El Paso, TX: 5
2010 homicide rate in El Paso, TX: 0.8 per 100.000 people

2010 population in Ciudad Juárez, MX: 1.321.000
2010 homicides in Ciudad Juárez, MX: 3.100
2010 homicide rate in Ciudad Juárez, MX: 234.7 per 100.000 people

Discuss.
21634  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Bachmann wins Iowa straw poll on: August 14, 2011, 12:30:30 am
Just saw the results and after this Romney will probably not win the caucuses anymore.

Ron Paul did really well, as did Santorum - but both of them will not win either.

My money is now on Rick Perry, who will also win SC, FL and AZ.
21635  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Iowa straw poll **live commentary thread** on: August 13, 2011, 08:47:42 am
Bachmann's doing pretty well in the so called "corn poll" at the Iowa State Fair:



She's the only one with 2 glasses of corn ... Wink
21636  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Iowa straw poll **live commentary thread** on: August 13, 2011, 08:35:05 am
The NYT has a good graphic of where the campaigns have their tents:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/08/10/us/politics/iowa-straw-poll.html



Ron Paul's place, which is the best spot, was also the place of 1999 and 2007 winners GWB and Romney.
21637  Forum Community / Survivor / Re: Pollster Survivor - ROUND 1 on: August 13, 2011, 03:55:12 am
ROUND 2: Pick two from every group that you want to eliminate.
21638  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Michael A. Naso Institute of Comedy on: August 13, 2011, 03:49:20 am
Not trusting a polling company that's only an X away from marxist!
21639  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Iowa straw poll **live commentary thread** on: August 13, 2011, 03:29:14 am
I think you can merge it and rename it "Iowa straw poll live commentary thread".

With the stickied thread being the main thread and this thread added to it.

Do you think the poll results will "survive" the merger ?" Huh
21640  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Iowa straw poll **live commentary thread** on: August 13, 2011, 03:23:31 am
Mr. Morden, can you merge this with the stickied thread ?
21641  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 State Elections in Germany on: August 13, 2011, 03:17:31 am
Kramp-Karrenbauer elected Saarland premier

The small industrial state of Saarland has a new premier after Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) was elected on Wednesday to lead the unwieldy coalition government.



The 48-year-old will succeed her party colleague Peter Müller, who in January announced his retirement from top-level politics.

Though her election was not unexpected, Kramp-Karrenbauer will have quite a task keeping the coalition held together. Though German media has criticized her as dull, she has been praised for her tours through Saarland in which she listens to local citizens’ complaints.

Kramp-Karrenbauer had to go through two rounds of voting by members of the state parliament to get the required majority. The centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) put up stiff opposition to Kramp-Karrenbauer during the first round of voting with its own candidate, Heiko Maas.

Saarland is governed by an unusual coalition of the CDU, the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) and the environmentalist Greens.

Kramp-Karrenbauer has served in numerous high posts in the state government, including stints as education and interior minister.

http://www.thelocal.de/national/20110810-36883.html
21642  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Try to caption this on: August 13, 2011, 03:02:50 am
21643  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Forum Republicans - Who are you supporting of the "serious" contenders on: August 13, 2011, 02:50:55 am
Not a Republican, so I didn't vote in the poll (but I will vote in the Republican primary next year)- but certainly one of the Mormons. I don't know if I'd vote for them in the General, but I want competent opposition to Obama. Considering how bad things could get, the last thing we need is a nutjob like Bachmann or Cain who just might do the unthinkable and win.

If you vote in the Republican primaries next year, you might as well vote in this poll.
21644  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Forum Republicans - Who are you supporting of the "serious" contenders on: August 13, 2011, 02:47:41 am
Huntsman and Gingrich are more "serious" than Paul or Cain ?

LOL.
21645  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Iowa straw poll **live commentary thread** on: August 13, 2011, 02:44:15 am
My Ames Straw Poll prediction:

17% Bachmann
15% Paul
14% Romney
13% Pawlenty
11% Perry
  9% Cain
  7% Gingrich
  6% Santorum
  4% Huntsman
  2% Palin
  1% McCotter
  1% Others (Johnson, Karger, Moore, Roemer all receive less than 1%).

Turnout: ca. 20.000 voters
21646  General Politics / Economics / Re: America's fiscal union: map/chart of federal fiscal transfers between US states on: August 12, 2011, 01:18:03 pm
If Austria would pay a net 10% of its GDP each year to the EU, the FPÖ would probably have 70% of the vote ... Tongue
21647  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays on: August 12, 2011, 10:03:37 am
ROTFLMAO!

Democrats having a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado!?!

Republicans really blew last year's Governor and Senate races in Colorado.

However, they DO control the state legislature and had a pickup in the House.

It was nice to see you acknowledge that in voter registration there are more Republicans in Colorado than Democrats, which both Gallup and Edison results support, and PPP disagrees with!

Hmm.

I didn't say that Democrats have necessarily a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado, but that at the moment it could be this way because the Colorado GOP sucks and because of more and more minorities registering as Democrats in Colorado.

After all there were 5-6% more Democrats turning out last year.

But there´s also the margin of error in the PPP poll (which is 4.5%), so you can also say that the spread between Dems and GOP could be lower. Who knows ?

Well, lets look your assertions.

First, occasionally there are elections when Democrat turnout is higher than Republican turnout, but, those elections are rare (roughly 1 out of 10).

Second, it is true that PPP polls do have unusually high sample size MoE (due to small samples), but that would NOT explain the partisan sample composition distribution.  In the PPP poll you cited, Democrats have an 8 point advantage, whereas in the Edison and Gallup polls (as well as voter registration you cited), they have a 1 point disadvantage.  That's a 9 point spread, which is NOT explained by sample size MoE!

Third, you ignored the other point about the PPP poll being heavily laden with liberals, both compared to the Edison and Gallup polls.

Finally, to me it makes no difference the race/ethnicity of voters as a vote is a vote.  So, would you be pleased to lose two white votes to gain one "minority" vote? 

Colorado is trending Democratic according to the exit polls:

2004 exit poll: R+9
2008 exit poll: R+1
2010 exit poll: D+5/6

Besides that you don't seem to understand what I´m trying to say.
21648  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Governors' statewide popularity on: August 12, 2011, 09:53:03 am
Christie back to blue:

Adults: 48-42
RV: 50-41

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP40_2.pdf
21649  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Iowa straw poll **live commentary thread** on: August 12, 2011, 08:00:37 am
Colbert is running an ad in Iowa, uring straw pollers to write in "Rick Parry" rather than "Rick Perry":

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61052.html

What will they do if the result is really close ?

For example Bachmann has 18% and "Rick Perry (write-in)" has 17% and "Rick Parry (write-in)" has 2% ? Will they add them to the Perry numbers ?
21650  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Iowa straw poll **live commentary thread** on: August 12, 2011, 07:53:52 am
You can still vote for 1 day.

Now that the debate is over, is Bachmann still the favorite ?

I think she'll still win this. I´ll post my prediction tomorrow.
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