Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 20, 2014, 11:07:35 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 ... 861 862 863 864 865 [866] 867 868 869 870 871 ... 1376
21626  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria on: October 10, 2010, 11:13:03 am
The VP result is a desaster ...

Probably the result of Christine Marek, the VP front-runner, with a charisma like a stone.

And, probably a late swing against the VP because of the story I mentioned above:

A mayor in Burgenland faked 13 absentee ballots in the spring state elections and the voters dont like election fakers ...
21627  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria on: October 10, 2010, 11:07:24 am
Now the seats:

49 SP
28 FP
12 VP
11 Greens

SP has lost its majority !
21628  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria on: October 10, 2010, 11:06:29 am
The most likely coalition now will be SP-Green, a coalition of 2 moderate losers.

There will be no elections in Austria for the next 3 years, therefore the FP and Strache will continue his strong opposition against the federal SPVP government and the BZ is done.

If the federal government sucks in the next 3 years, Strache may be well positioned for a '99 style election result.
21629  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria on: October 10, 2010, 11:01:18 am
The VP result is a desaster ...
21630  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria on: October 10, 2010, 10:58:21 am
44.5%    (-4.6%)  SP
27.2% (+12.4%)  FP
13.0%    (-5.8%)  VP
12.1%    (-2.6%)  Greens
  1.4%   (+0.2%)  BZ
  1.1%    (-0.3%)  KP
  0.7%   (+0.6%)  Others

The absolute majority for the SP is probably gone ...
21631  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria on: October 10, 2010, 10:54:21 am
1st projection by SORA:

44.5% SP
27.2% FP
13.0% VP
12.1% Greens
  1.4% BZ
  1.1% KP
  0.7% Others

WOW !
21632  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria on: October 10, 2010, 10:36:35 am
In the next 15 minutes there should be a first projection based on counted precincts ...
21633  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria on: October 10, 2010, 10:22:09 am
Der Standard has some useful maps, as usual:

http://derstandard.at/1285199934028/Grafik-Alle-Wahlergebnisse-im-Detail
21634  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria on: October 10, 2010, 10:13:12 am
Sry, deleted the live-stream somehow ... Tongue

mms://apasf.apa.at/ORFcmsLive5
21635  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria on: October 10, 2010, 10:05:14 am
That could mean up to 27% for the FP, because their voters tend to lie in these telephone polls.

Real results from precincts and the first projection are expected to come in in about 40 minutes.
21636  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria on: October 10, 2010, 10:02:53 am
SORA Weekend poll (2000 voters questioned on Saturday/Sunday):

42-46% SP
23-26% FP
14-16% VP
11-13% Greens
    1-3% BZ
    1-2% KP
21637  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria on: October 10, 2010, 09:52:11 am
Polls close in 10 minutes ...

Results can be found here starting @ about 6pm.

http://www.wien.gv.at/english/NET-EN/GR101/index.htm
21638  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / CO: Bennet leads by 3 in internal poll on: October 10, 2010, 08:47:51 am
44% - Bennet (D)
41% - Buck (R)
  2% - Stringer (L)
  1% - Kinsey (G)
13% - Undecided

The survey was conducted by Harstad Strategic Research among a cross-section of 509 likely voters in Colorado drawn from a voter sample. It was interviewed by telephone from October 3 to 4, 2010. The overall results are subject to a statistical margin-of-error of plus-or-minus 4.4%.

Based in Colorado, Harstad Research has been the successful pollster for the Senate campaigns of Ken Salazar and Mark Udall, among four other sitting U.S. Senators. Harstad Research has a remarkable record of accuracy in recent elections in Colorado and elsewhere. In 2008, Harstads final Colorado poll got Mark Udalls winning margin within 0.3% of the final spread and Barack Obamas winning margin within 0.1% of the final spread.

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM170_101005_colorado.html
21639  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / OK: SoonerPoll: Coburn remains above 60 on: October 10, 2010, 08:30:17 am
New Poll: Oklahoma Senator by SoonerPoll on 2010-10-07

Summary: D: 22%, R: 62%, I: 2%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

21640  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / OK: SoonerPoll: Fallin 54, Askins 38 on: October 10, 2010, 08:28:25 am
New Poll: Oklahoma Governor by SoonerPoll on 2010-10-16

Summary: D: 38%, R: 54%, I: 0%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

21641  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria on: October 10, 2010, 08:15:52 am
Turnout seems to be higher than in 2005, maybe 63-66% (with postal votes).

Until 2pm, 36.6% have already voted - which is lower than the 39.4% at the same time in 2005.

But it is not really comparable, because postal votes were not allowed in 2005.

14% of all voters have requested postal votes and turnout is generally high among these voters, so you can add another 10% to the turnout figures.
21642  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MI: EPIC/MRI: Snyder still leading by 20 on: October 10, 2010, 07:39:54 am
This poll assumes the following composition for Nov. 2:

39R, 35D, 26I

2008: 41D, 30R, 29I -> D+11
2006: 40D, 33R, 27I -> D+7
2004: 39D, 34R, 27I -> D+5

How likely is that ?
21643  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / NE: Rasmussen: Heineman leads by more than 40 on: October 10, 2010, 07:22:30 am
New Poll: Nebraska Governor by Rasmussen on 2010-10-16

Summary: D: 24%, R: 66%, I: 3%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

21644  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / MI: EPIC/MRI: Snyder still leading by 20 on: October 10, 2010, 07:19:18 am
New Poll: Michigan Governor by EPIC/MRI on 2010-10-16

Summary: D: 29%, R: 49%, I: 4%, U: 18%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

21645  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria on: October 10, 2010, 03:45:29 am
Vienna is shaped a lot like Berlin.

Yeah, but twice the size: population- and size-technically.

BTW: The Vienna "exit polls" today will be different than in other elections.

Because the precincts all close at the same time at 5pm, there wont be a projection based on precincts already counted like in other states, but a so called "Wahltagsbefragung" by SORA, that was actually done among 2000 Vienna voters by phone on Saturday and Sunday.

A first projection (based on counted precincts) is expected at 6pm.
21646  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 State Elections in Germany on: October 10, 2010, 02:21:23 am
How long before we see a poll showing that Red and Green could form a government in Bavaria as well?? That would a real earthquake...at this rate, by 2013 when the next federal election is held in Germany, the CDU could be out of power in just about every single state!

Not going to happen ...

BTW: Do the BW Greens already have a PM candidate for the state elections ?

Maybe Silke Krebs (party chair of the BW Greens) ?

21647  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: ME: Maine Center for Public Opinion: Le Page lead evaporates on: October 10, 2010, 12:55:32 am
Or it may just be an outlier.

That would be 2 outliers now in a row ...
21648  Election Archive / 2010 House Election Polls / ME-01/PTP-Maine Center for Public Opinion: Pingree (D) ahead by 8 on: October 10, 2010, 12:42:52 am
46% Chellie Pingree (D)
38% Dean Scontras (R)
16% Undecided

The poll was conducted by the Maine Center for Public Opinion, a Portland-based firm. The sample size was 346 in the 1st Congressional District and 679 statewide, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.76 percent, according to the Pine Tree Politics. The poll used human callers and took place over four days, from Oct. 4-7.

http://www.kjonline.com/news/new-statewide-poll-shows-tighter-races_2010-10-09.html
21649  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: ME: Maine Center for Public Opinion: Le Page lead evaporates on: October 10, 2010, 12:40:46 am
Maybe the Bill Clinton visit helped close the gap or was there someting else that I missed ?
21650  Election Archive / 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls / ME: Maine Center for Public Opinion: Le Page lead evaporates on: October 10, 2010, 12:38:45 am
New Poll: Maine Governor by Maine Center for Public Opinion on 2010-10-16

Summary: D: 29%, R: 30%, I: 11%, U: 24%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

...

* Paul LePage - 29.6%
* Libby Mitchell - 28.7%
* Eliot Cutler - 11.1%
* Shawn Moody - 4.9%
* Kevin Scott - 1.6%
* Undecided - 24.1%

Pages: 1 ... 861 862 863 864 865 [866] 867 868 869 870 871 ... 1376


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines