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21626  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria and onwards ... on: April 13, 2011, 12:33:28 am
Austria arrests former neo-Nazi leader Gottfried Kuessel over website

Mr Kuessel, 52, former leader of the now-banned neo-Nazi group VAPO, was believed to be one of the main figures behind the alpen-donau.info website, a key forum for Austria's neo-Nazi movement that was shut down in March.

Half a dozen house searches were conducted late on Monday in Vienna and southern Styria province, during which investigators seized documents, computers, hard-disks, weapons and Nazi paraphernalia, Vienna prosecution spokesman Thomas Vecsey said.

Mr Kuessel and a second person were arrested overnight, he added.

The prosecution said it had received help from US investigators to gain access to the website's servers, which were based in the United States and were long out of reach for the Austrian authorities.

Mr Kuessel was the founder and leader of the Volkstreue Ausserparlamentarische Opposition group (extra-parliamentary opposition loyal to the people), before it was banned under Austria's anti-Nazi law in the 1990s.

The 52-year-old, who has described himself as a "national socialist", has made repeated comments in the past denying the Holocaust and even denounced the diary of Anne Frank as a fabrication.

Sentenced to 10 years in prison in 1993 for Nazi propaganda, he saw his term extended to 11 years over a procedural problem but was released in 1999 after six years for good conduct.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/austria/8447175/Austria-arrests-former-neo-Nazi-leader-Gottfried-Kuessel-over-website.html

Good.
21627  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Rasmussen: Obama ties or leads all Republicans on: April 13, 2011, 12:13:04 am
The match-up surveys of 2,000 or 1,000 Likely Voters were conducted from March 6 - March 31, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports.

Well, which is it, Scott?

Each match-up had either 1000 or 2000 likely voters.
21628  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Rasmussen: Obama ties or leads all Republicans on: April 13, 2011, 12:05:19 am
Obama vs. Huckabee: 43-43
Obama vs. Romney: 45-40
Obama vs. Paul: 42-34
Obama vs. Barbour: 42-34
Obama vs. Palin: 48-38
Obama vs. Pawlenty: 45-35
Obama vs. Huntsman: 42-31
Obama vs. Gingrich: 49-37
Obama vs. Daniels: 45-32
Obama vs. Cain: 43-25

The match-up surveys of 2,000 or 1,000 Likely Voters were conducted from March 6 - March 31, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error for surveys of 2,000 is +/- 2% with a 95% level of confidence; the margin of sampling error for surveys of 1,000 is +/- 3% with a 95% level of confidence.  Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/2012_presidential_matchups
21629  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / GA-PPP: Huckabee barely ahead of Gingrich, Cain polls strongly on: April 12, 2011, 11:59:00 pm
If the Republican candidates for President next year were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you vote for?

Mike Huckabee ............................................... 23%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 22%
Herman Cain................................................... 16%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 10%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 8%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 4%
Ron Paul......................................................... 3%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 3%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 11%

If you included Haley Barbour instead of Herman Cain and the candidates were Michele Bachmann, Haley Barbour, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you vote for?

Newt Gingrich ................................................. 31%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 24%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 10%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 8%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 5%
Ron Paul......................................................... 4%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 4%
Haley Barbour................................................. 3%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_GA_04121023.pdf
21630  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Peruvian elections 2011 on: April 12, 2011, 12:39:33 am
Fujimori and Humala have no chance in the Austrian expat vote:

49.5% Pedro Pablo Kuczynski
15.9% Alejandro Toledo
12.7% Luis Castaeda Lossio
11.7% Keiko Fujimori
  9.2% Ollanta Humala
21631  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Tim Pawlenty hires Ayers as campaign manager on: April 11, 2011, 03:35:12 pm
OMGZ ! Scandal !

Tongue

No, it's Nick - not Bill:

Tim Pawlenty on Monday named Nick Ayers as his exploratory committee's campaign manager, locking down a top national operative for his all-but-certain presidential campaign.

"He is without question one of the best political talents in America," Pawlenty said of the former Republican Governors Association executive director. "We are very excited Nick will lead our team. His leadership and record of winning tough races in every part of our country will provide even more momentum to our campaign to get America back on track."

Ayers will be moving to Minneapolis and will start work on April 25. At 28 years old, Ayers is one of the GOP's young stars and top consultants. He headed the RGA during its massive gains of the 2010 cycle, and oversaw historic fundraising that topped $100 million.

After leaving the RGA, Ayers aided the transition of newly elected Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus. Prior to his national-level work, Ayers ran former Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdues successful 2006 reelection campaign and served as senior political aide.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0411/52910.html
21632  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: FL-Mason Dixon: Mitt Romney slightly ahead on: April 11, 2011, 03:19:58 pm
Palin behind Pawlenty -> Epic Fail.

I think it's more and more unlikely each day that she runs.
21633  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria and onwards ... on: April 11, 2011, 03:06:26 pm
Krone-girl provides the new IMAS poll for Upper Austria:



40%  [-7] VP
20% [+5] FP
20%  [-5] SP
15% [+6] Greens
  3%  [nc] BZ
  2% [+1] Others

http://www.krone.at/Oberoesterreich/Waere_jetzt_Wahl_bliebe_kein_Stein_auf_dem_anderen-Krone-Umfrage-Story-255913
21634  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Santorum wins SC strawpoll on: April 11, 2011, 02:57:16 pm
Where's Phil?

Trying to steal Iowa with You-Know-Who:

21635  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: April 11, 2011, 02:25:00 pm
NY (Siena):

63% Favorable
34% Unfavorable

52% Re-elect
39% Prefer someone else

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/041111SNYPollReleaseFINAL.pdf

FL (Mason Dixon):

43% Approve
51% Disapprove

http://www.ronsachs.com/docs/prespoll.pdf
21636  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / FL-Mason Dixon: Mitt Romney slightly ahead on: April 11, 2011, 02:12:33 pm
In a hypothetical Republican primary contest, the Sachs/Mason-Dixon Poll shows:

Mitt Romney received 23 percent.
Mike Huckabee received 18 percent.
Donald Trump received 13 percent.
Newt Gingrich received 11 percent.
Tim Pawlenty received 8 percent.
Sarah Palin received 5 percent.
Mitch Daniels received 4 percent.
Ron Paul received 3 percent.
Michelle Bachman received 1 percent.
Rick Santorum received 1 percent.
Haley Barbour received no votes with 13 percent of the voters undecided.

...

This survey also includes an over-sampling of 400 likely Republican primary voters. Only the question relative to the GOP presidential primary race was asked of these additional voters, and not the questions concerning the general election. The margin for error for the Republican primary voter sample is plus or minus 5%.

http://www.ronsachs.com/docs/prespoll.pdf

...

Map:



Huckabee -> Light Blue
Romney -> Red
Palin -> Pink
Pawlenty -> Green
Barbour -> Yellow

White -> Candidates are tied
21637  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / FL-Mason Dixon: Romney/Huckabee ahead of Obama, Trump/Palin not on: April 11, 2011, 02:08:27 pm
Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obamas performance as president?

43% Approve
51% Disapprove

If the 2012 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote if the choice were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Mitt Romney, the Republican?

48% Romney
43% Obama

If the 2012 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote if the choice were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Mike Huckabee, the Republican?

49% Huckabee
44% Obama

If the 2012 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote if the choice were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican?

48% Obama
40% Trump

If the 2012 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote if the choice were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Sarah Palin, the Republican?

51% Obama
39% Palin

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. from April 4 through April 7, 2011. A total of 800 registered voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they vote regularly in state elections.

http://www.ronsachs.com/docs/prespoll.pdf

...

The new map:

Obama vs. Huckabee



Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Gingrich



Obama vs. Palin

21638  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 State Elections in Germany on: April 11, 2011, 01:44:52 am
Can anyone please release a new Bremen poll ?

I wanna see if the Greens are close to 30% there.

wahlfieber.de, which is similar to intrade.com and good at predicting elections, shows the following:

35.7% SPD
27.0% Greens
21.0% CDU
  6.6% Left
  4.6% FDP
  8.0% Others
21639  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Peruvian elections 2011 on: April 11, 2011, 01:18:36 am
Well, then let's hope that the Polish guy defeats Humala in the run-off - if he really stays second.
21640  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Do you think the US Government will be able to avoid shutdown? on: April 10, 2011, 09:01:51 am
Interesting:

If the US would have annual receipts like Austria has (22% of GDP) and cut defense spending to 2% per year, the US would have a slight surplus.

2011 Baseline: 2.3 Trillion $ Revenues and 3.8-3.9 Trillion $ Spendings

My proposal:

US GDP 2011: 15.4 Trillion $
2011 Revenues (22%): 3.4 Trillion $

Defense/Homeland Security Spending 2011: 788 Bio. $ (5.1% of GDP)
Defense/Homeland Security Spending 2011 with 2% of GDP: 308 Bio. $
Savings 2011: 480 Bio. $
2011 Spending with 2% Defense Spending: 3.4 Trillion $

But for that it would take a parliamentary system in which lawmakers have 4-5 years time to pass a tax increase without getting worried about re-election. Or it would take representatives/senators who are willing to tap the milkcows of the nation (US workforce, especially rich folks) and risk not getting re-elected. Won't happen though.
21641  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: UT-Deseret News/KSL-TV/Dan Jones: No country for Non-Mormons on: April 10, 2011, 08:05:54 am
What % of Utah Republicans are non-Mormon?  I realize I could go look this up myself from past exit polls, but I'm too lazy.

In 2008: 90%

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#UTREP
21642  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Peruvian elections 2011 on: April 10, 2011, 04:07:10 am
Now, I'm no expert in Peru, but I just found a survey that shows that half of low-income Peruvians have no access to a telephone. Do opinion polls weigh for that sort of thing?

If not, I'd assume Kuczynski and maybe Castaneda are overpolling a fair bit while Humala and possibly Fujimori are underpolling. Don't know enough about Toledo's appeal to say for him.   

Maybe polls are conducted face-to-face in Peru, not over the phone.
21643  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 State Elections in Germany on: April 10, 2011, 03:54:59 am
It looks like the Forsa poll was an outlier, the new Emnid poll is out today:

33% CDU/CSU
25% SPD
24% Greens
  8% Left
  4% FDP
  6% Others
21644  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria and onwards ... on: April 10, 2011, 03:37:26 am
New Gallup poll out today (not much change compared with last weekend, only that the Greens are slightly losing and the BZ slightly gaining):



Direct vote for Chancellor:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/FPOe-holt-SPOe-schon-fast-ein/22796729
21645  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / UT-Deseret News/KSL-TV/Dan Jones: No country for Non-Mormons on: April 10, 2011, 12:29:48 am
69% Romney
14% Huntsman
  5% Trump
  2% Palin
  1% Huckabee
  7% Others
  3% Undecided

If the choice in a Utah GOP primary were between Romney and Trump, Romney would get the votes of 83 percent of Utahns, compared to just 11 percent for Trump.

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/705370310/Trump-may-want-to-fire-himself-from-Utah-GOP-presidential-primary-after-new-poll.html
21646  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: How would you vote ... on: April 10, 2011, 12:16:55 am
New ATV Austria Trend Poll:

56% Keep the Draft
38% Abolish the Draft/Create Professional Army
  6% Undecided

46% If the Draft is abolished, there should be a voluntary Social Year instead of the Civil Service
45% If the Draft is abolished, there should be a mandatory Social Year instead of the Civil Service
  6% If the Draft is abolished, the Civil Service should be abolished as well
  3% Undecided

http://atv.at/binaries/asset/download_assets/1623359/file
21647  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria and onwards ... on: April 10, 2011, 12:09:12 am
New Graz poll by OGM:

36%  [-2.4] VP
17% [+2.4] Greens
17%  [-2.7] SP
16% [+5.1] FP
10%  [-1.2] KP
  4%  [-1.2] BZ/Others

Majority for the current VP-Green government.

Approval Ratings of leading city politicians:

Mayor Siegfried Nagl (VP): 54-35
Vice-Mayor Lisa Rcker (Greens): 45-39

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/system/galleries/upload/6/4/6/2718118/2011-04-10-Umfrage-Graz.pdf
21648  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Austrian bakery sells Nazi-cakes, owner faces prison on: April 09, 2011, 11:38:51 am
'Nazi' pie maker gets death threats

A confectioner has received murder threats for offering cakes showing banned Nazi propaganda symbols and slogans.

The Austrian Mauthausen Committee (MK) a Holocaust awareness group informed police and prosecutors about Manfred Klaschkas controversial business activities earlier this week. The MK was tipped off by horrified customers of the confectioner. A catalogue of previously created products on display at his shop in Maria Enzersdorf, Lower Austria, includes a cake with swastika icing and a pie on which an uniformed arm bursts through to give the Hitler salute.

Klaschka has been threatened with murder in several anonymous postings on various internet discussion platforms since the story broke.

"People are calling me a Nazi swine on the phone. Im not a fan of (late Third Reich dictator Adolf) Hitler," he said today (Fri).

The confectioner added: "I made these cakes eight years ago. I dont know whats so special about fulfilling extraordinary requests of customers."

Klaschka infuriated anti-Nazi mindset activists, politicians, non-government organisations (NGO) and readers all over the world earlier this week by arguing:  "Its impossible for me to trace back who ordered the cakes in question as they were requested by walk-in customers around eight or nine years ago. Furthermore, and this applies to all trades: the customer is always right!"

He was also quoted as saying: "If someone orders it, Ill create a pie showing (Libyan leader Muammar al-) Gaddafi."

Spreading Nazi propaganda is a breach of law in Austria. The countrys juridical framework also prohibits the possession and trade of any kind of objects depicting symbols associated with Nazi Germany. The number of violations of this section of the federal law rose by 39.5 per cent from 2009 to 2010 to 741.

http://austrianindependent.com/news/General_News/2011-04-08/7062/%27Nazi%27_pie_maker_gets_death_threats

21649  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria and onwards ... on: April 09, 2011, 11:37:22 am
"Big Sister" (Interior Minister) Maria Fekter goes Arizona-style when it comes to immigration:

The police will have authorisation to enter private homes, headlines Die Presse. As part of a new hard line on immigration put forward by Austrias very active interior minister Maria Fekter (VP), the police will no longer require a warrant to search private residences and vehicles if they suspect the presence of undocumented aliens. The measures, which are described in a specific article of the countrys new Aliens Act developed both by the VP and its coalition partner the SP, will be subject to approval by a vote in parliament to take place in the month of April.

Fekter has established the basis for a generalised suspicion that foreigners are either illegal or criminals, writes Die Presse, which notes that civil rights are not the sole preserve of Austrian passport holders. If your daughter has a foreign friend, who happens to be African [], then your home can be searched for drugs. Who is to say that the authorisation to conduct searches without warrants will not be extended to target a wider range of unloved Austrians? A day will come when every Austrian who wants to remain above suspicion will have to have a policeman living in his house.

http://www.presseurop.eu/en/content/news-brief-cover/584621-police-closer-home
21650  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: April 09, 2011, 12:10:41 am
NJ (Rutgers, with 3 measures, not one of them usable for the map):

Please rate how Barack Obama is handling his job as President, using a grading scale from A to F, You can give him any full letter grade, A, B, C, D, or F.

A - 14%
B - 32%
C - 27%
D - 16%
F - 10%

Please rate how Barack Obama is handling his job as president. Is it excellent, good, fair, or poor?

13% Excellent
34% Good
31% Fair
22% Poor

I'd like to ask about some people and organizations. Please tell me if your general impression of each one is favorable or unfavorable, or if you do not have an opinion. First, President Barack Obama:

55% Favorable
32% Unfavorable

LOL.

http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/polls/release_04-08-11.pdf
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