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21626  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: February 01, 2011, 02:18:15 pm
PPP/DailyKos now has seen the light in their weekly poll !

50% Approve
45% Disapprove

52% Favorable
44% Unfavorable

50% Obama
44% Generic Republican

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/1/27
21627  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NE-PPP: Obama loses to Huck by 13, Romney by 12, Gingrich by 8, Palin by 1 on: February 01, 2011, 02:04:57 pm
You guys are still using the old EV map.

Ahh, thx.

Where can I get a 2012 EV calculator ?

PS: I already tried to switch the number 2008 to 2012 in the image code, but nothing changed. And it is too complicated to switch to 2012 numbers now. If someone wants to create the maps, then OK ... Wink
21628  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: SD-PPP: Thune easily defeats Obama, other races are closer on: February 01, 2011, 01:59:09 pm
Obama vs. Huckabee



Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Gingrich



Obama vs. Palin

21629  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: What states ... on: February 01, 2011, 01:54:28 pm
I'd bet a good amount of money on Alaska.

That would have sucked ... Tongue
21630  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / SD-PPP: Thune easily defeats Obama, other races are closer on: February 01, 2011, 01:51:16 pm
2012 GE matchups:

37% Obama
57% Thune

41% Obama
47% Huckabee

40% Obama
46% Romney

44% Obama
42% Gingrich

48% Obama
40% Palin

Obama Approval Rating:

42-49

Thune Approval Rating:

58-31

Favorable Ratings:

40-30 Huckabee
35-34 Romney
31-43 Gingrich
37-55 Palin

PPP surveyed 1,045 South Dakota voters from January 28th to 30th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SD_0201513.pdf
21631  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / SC-PPP: DeMint & Huckabee ahead on: February 01, 2011, 01:46:49 pm
With DeMint:

Jim DeMint...................................................... 24%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 20%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 17%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 12%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 10%
Ron Paul......................................................... 4%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 3%
Mitch Daniels .................................................. 2%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 8%

Without DeMint:

Mike Huckabee ............................................... 26%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 20%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 18%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 13%
Ron Paul......................................................... 7%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 4%
Mitch Daniels .................................................. 3%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 8%

PPP surveyed 559 South Carolina Republican primary voters from January 28th to 30th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SC_02011023.pdf
21632  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / You can vote @ PPP again ... on: February 01, 2011, 01:47:24 am
This week's finalists...

Here are the finalists for the two states where we'll poll this weekend. Voting is open until Thursday morning. As with last week we'll take the top two vote getters- unless neither of them has a 2012 Senate race. In that case we'll do the top vote getter and the top one that has a 2012 Senate rate. And as always if we see the same person voting for one state hundreds of times we reserve the right to disqualify it from consideration. Here they are:

-Colorado. One of the three remaining Bush/Obama states that we haven't polled yet. Interested to see if Obama's holding on in the state but beyond that would definitely need your suggestions on what to ask there without a race for Senator or Governor in 2012.

-Connecticut. Not interesting at the Presidential level but we have about 42 million permutations for the Senate race there next year that we could look at.

-Georgia. This is one of the few states Obama didn't win in 2008 that he could conceivably pick up next year- although certainly only in a landslide. Particularly interested in seeing how Gingrich's home state reacts to a potential bid. Like Colorado would need suggestions on what else to ask without a marquee down ballot race in 2012.

-Missouri. We already polled Missouri in early December but we're willing to take a look at it again already because the nature of the Senate race has really changed with Jim Talent not running and a bunch of new Republican names on the table. Also interested in seeing if the nationwide resurgence in popularity Obama had over the course of January now has him in better shape for taking Missouri next year.

-New Hampshire. Main interest here, like last week, is seeing what impact Rudy Giuliani getting into the Presidential race would have in the state. And also if the huge Republican year in the state bodes poorly for Obama's reelection prospects next year or if that was just a blip on the radar.

-New Mexico. Another of the Bush/Obama states that we haven't made it to yet although given his 15 point victory in the state in 2008 I have a hard time thinking it's going to be competitive next year, even with Susana Martinez's strong performance for Governor last year. Also a potentially interesting Senate race, particularly if Jeff Bingaman decides to hang it up.

-Washington. Maria Cantwell and Debbie Stabenow both won extremely close races against incumbents in 2000, then cruised to reelection in the Democratic wave year of 2006. Barack Obama won both of their states by about the same margin. Stabenow looks like she might really be in trouble for reelection. Is Cantwell? BTW for the purpose of keeping the survey at a reasonable length we would skip the Governor's race for now and just stay focused on President and Senate.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/01/this-weeks-finalists.html

...

I voted for Colorado, but would also like New Mexico or Georgia.
21633  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NE-PPP: Obama loses to Huck by 13, Romney by 12, Gingrich by 8, Palin by 1 on: February 01, 2011, 01:45:07 am
If trends continue, Palin will almost certainly trail Obama in South Carolina (Blacks will vote almost 100% for Obama and he'll get a good amount of Whites against her) and also Arizona, but I could see her being in a tie there.
21634  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NE-PPP: Obama loses to Huck by 13, Romney by 12, Gingrich by 8, Palin by 1 on: February 01, 2011, 01:32:06 am
The new map without pbrower2a's "modifying" of certain states ...

Obama vs. Huckabee



Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Gingrich



Obama vs. Palin

21635  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: February 01, 2011, 01:25:35 am
Side note for pbrower2a's map:

Obama's approvals are actually broken down by Congressional District in the PPP release:

CD1: 35-57
CD2: 51-45
CD3: 28-67

(page 15)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NE_0131.pdf
21636  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Potential GOP Presidential Candidates - Approve or Disapprove? on: January 31, 2011, 02:58:29 pm
Huckabee - Disapprove
Palin - Disapprove
Romney - Neutral
Gingrich - Disapprove
Pawlenty - Neutral
Santorum - Disapprove
Huntsman - Neutral
Barbour - Disapprove
Bachmann - Disapprove
Bolton - Disapprove
Daniels - Neutral
Giuliani - Neutral
Johnson - Neutral
Paul - Neutral
Roemer - Disapprove
Thune - Disapprove
Trump - Disapprove
Cain - Disapprove
21637  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Mitch Daniels wins Washington State GOP straw poll on: January 31, 2011, 02:25:06 pm
Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels Wins the Roanoke Conference Republican Presidential Straw Poll

Second Annual Conference Brings More Than 300 GOP Activists, Legislators to Ocean Shores

Ocean Shores, Washington – After a weekend of debate and discussion about important issues facing the United States at the second annual Roanoke Conference, Washington State Republican activists, legislators, young professionals and college students selected Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels as their favorite candidate to face Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election.

By more than a two to one margin, Roanoke Conference attendees selected Daniels as their top choice from the wide open field of potential Republican candidates for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. Sixteen potential candidates received votes. The results were as follows:

31% Governor Mitch Daniels, Indiana
14% Former Governor Mitt Romney, Massachusetts
13% Former Governor Tim Pawlenty, Minnesota
  9% Governor Chris Christie, New Jersey
  8% Senator John Thune, South Dakota
  5% Governor Bobby Jindal, Louisiana
  3% Representative Paul Ryan, Wisconsin
  3% Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Georgia
  3% Senator Jim DeMint, South Carolina
  3% Former Governor Sarah Palin
  2% Governor Haley Barbour, Mississippi
  2% Former Governor Mike Huckabee, Arkansas
  1% Representative Mike Pence, Indiana
  1% Ambassador Jon Huntsman, Utah
  1% Representative Michele Bachmann, Minnesota
  1% Representative Ron Paul, Texas

The Roanoke Conference is a gathering for Republicans in Washington State offering a unique forum for lively political debate, networking and instruction for those who want to get involved in local, state or national politics. The conference brought together citizens and activists of all ages from the state of Washington to interact with Republican leaders in a fun, social setting. While in Ocean Shores, attendees participated in debates on critical issues including a balanced federal budget, the Washington ballot initiative process, the rise of government employee union influence and redistricting. In addition, experts provided instructional seminars on getting involved in politics and how to make a difference in the political process.

“The enthusiasm and energy of the Republicans attending the Roanoke Conference demonstrated a desire for real and lasting change in Washington State,” said Roanoke Conference Chairman Steve Buri. “Citizens from all over the state joined together in Ocean Shores with the common desire to advance the principles of individual liberty, the free market and limited government. The Roanoke Conference is a clear sign of the continued resurgence of Republican ideals.”

Attendees at the conference included former U.S. Senator Slade Gorton, U.S. Representative Jamie Herrera Beutler, Attorney General Rob McKenna, Seattle Port Commissioner Bill Bryant, King County Councilman Reagan Dunn, Washington State Republican Party Chairman Kirby Wilbur, Washington State House Republican Leader Representative Richard Debolt, Washington State Senate Republican Whip Doug Erickson and numerous other representatives and senators from the Washington Legislature. The keynote speaker at this year’s Roanoke Conference was Dana Perino, Fox News contributor and former White House press secretary for President George W. Bush.

For more information about the Roanoke Conference, visit www.roanokeconference.org.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/ABPub/2011/01/31/2014089780.pdf
21638  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: What states ... on: January 31, 2011, 02:14:45 pm
I'd bet a good amount of money on Alaska.

After the Miller debacle, in which the Palin-backed candidate is now seen as a sore loser, Palin is surely tied to Miller in the voters minds and that could have dragged down her image in the state and with that her support against Obama.
21639  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: What states ... on: January 31, 2011, 02:06:44 pm
Could it be Alaska?

If it were based on which of the LBJ states is most worthy of polling, it would be North Dakota, because of the open Senate race. Although I think Palin leads Obama in Montana...

Montana was once won by Bill Clinton, so we can rule this state out.

PPP once said that they cannot poll North Dakota because robo-polls are only allowed in the state when they are introduced by a live-interviewer - which is more costly. Maybe they paid it on their own to get an early look at the Senate race though ... Smiley
21640  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: What states ... on: January 31, 2011, 01:57:02 pm
By my count the states are:

Alaska
Idaho
Utah
Wyoming
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Oklahoma

Did I miss something ?

I guess it's either Alaska (LOL, but possible after the Miller fiasco) or South Dakota, where Palin now trails by 8 points.

All other states seem to be a lock for her, and ND cannot be polled by PPP because they ban Robo-Polls.
21641  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: What states ... on: January 31, 2011, 01:51:43 pm
IIRC, Arizona was won by Clinton once and South Carolina by Carter.

So it won't be any of these states that PPP has polled this weekend.

What do you guess is the state ?

South Dakota ?
21642  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / What states ... on: January 31, 2011, 01:48:57 pm
are now left that a Democrat last won in 1964 ?

Because PPP writes:

We found Obama up 8 on Palin in a state Dems haven't won since 1964. Strongest evidence of Goldwater redux yet. Tell you where tomorrow.

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/32096387327860736
21643  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: MI-Mitchell Research & Communications: Romney ahead on: January 31, 2011, 12:56:06 am
Is the SC poll on your map the one from PPP way back in May?  Because there's also the more recent CNN exit poll of SC in November, which had Palin up by 1:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/11/03/exit-polls-enough-about-the-campaign-–-let’s-talk-about-the-campaign/

Yes, I used the May 2010 PPP poll for SC.

I didn't know that there was an Exit Poll for SC that involved the GOP primary.

But this week we'll get new numbers anyway.
21644  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: MI-Mitchell Research & Communications: Romney ahead on: January 30, 2011, 02:37:40 pm
I think Huckabee will lead the SC poll by PPP that's coming out this week.

If they include DeMint, DeMint will be in a toss-up with Huckabee - with Gingrich, Palin, Romney further behind.

Romney should still lead in AZ, by about 5-10 points.
21645  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: MI-Mitchell Research & Communications: Romney ahead on: January 30, 2011, 02:28:04 pm
This is the current map with all recent polls and leaders:



Huckabee -> Light Blue
Romney -> Red
Palin -> Pink
Gingrich -> Dark Blue
Pawlenty -> Green

Next up: Arizona and South Carolina
21646  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / MI-Mitchell Research & Communications: Romney ahead on: January 30, 2011, 02:06:10 pm
28% Romney
15% Huckabee
10% Paul
10% Palin
  6% Christie
  3% Daniels
  3% Rubio
  1% Pawlenty
  1% Thune
22% Undecided

The telephone poll of 600 likely voters was conducted Dec. 30 and Jan. 2-4. There were 251 respondents who identified themselves as Republicans, and the margin of error for that sub-sample is plus or minus 6 percent, Mitchell said in a news release.

From The Detroit News: http://detnews.com/article/20110128/POLITICS02/101280407/Romney-tops-state-GOP-poll-on-presidential-hopefuls#ixzz1CXyRXIHC
21647  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria on: January 30, 2011, 09:03:47 am
Austrian gay groups have demanded an apology from the former racing driver Niki Lauda after he made disparaging remarks about the pairing of a gay male celebrity with a male dancer on Austria's version of Strictly Come Dancing.

Alfons Haider, a 53-year-old TV presenter from Vienna, is set to waltz with another man in the forthcoming series of Dancing Stars on the state-owned ORF channel.

This is probably a stupid question, but - Alfons Haider definitely isn't a relation of Jorg Haider?

No, they are not related. There are many people in Austria named Haider.
21648  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: How would you vote ... on: January 30, 2011, 02:35:24 am
BTW, the lead of the abolition side was cut in half since a Kurier/OGM poll 1 month ago ...
21649  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: How would you vote ... on: January 30, 2011, 02:30:30 am
There's a new OGM poll out today for the Kurier-newspaper about changing the draft system and the sacking of the top-General Entacher by Defense Minister Darabos.

Read more about it here:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=107855.msg2796353#msg2796353



Austrians oppose by 28-53 the sacking of the popular Military General by Minister Darabos.

Only 27% of Austrians think that Darabos is "able to reform" the Military, 58% think he's unable.

45% of Austrians think that Defense Minister Darabos should step down, 34% oppose this.

68% of Austrians will take part in a referendum about ending the draft, 32% will not.

43% of Austrians now favor keeping the draft system, 49% are opposed.

47% of Austrians now favor a professional army, even if it costs the taxpayers more money than the current system. 45% of the people are opposed.

http://kurier.at/nachrichten/2068804.php
21650  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 Presidential and State Elections in Austria on: January 30, 2011, 02:04:28 am
GAY CONTROVERSY IN AUSTRIA:

Niki Lauda accused of homophobia after attacking TV dancing show

Motor racing legend objects to gay men competing together on prime time programme



Niki Lauda demanded a halt to 'a gay show on state television'.

Austrian gay groups have demanded an apology from the former racing driver Niki Lauda after he made disparaging remarks about the pairing of a gay male celebrity with a male dancer on Austria's version of Strictly Come Dancing.

Alfons Haider, a 53-year-old TV presenter from Vienna, is set to waltz with another man in the forthcoming series of Dancing Stars on the state-owned ORF channel.



Lauda, the three-times world Formula One champion, told the Austrian daily newspaper Österreich he didn't want to have to explain to his children why two men were dancing together on prime time TV.

"There are some good traditions in our culture, one of which is that men dance with women," he said. "Soon we will reach the stage where we will all have to publicly apologise for being heterosexual."

Lauda, 61, said he was upset "that I have to explain to my children why men no longer dance with women on TV, as is traditional".

The German tabloid Bild asked Lauda if it was really so bad for two men to dance together. "No," said Lauda. "As long as they do it at home and not on TV, when children are watching."

He insisted he was not homophobic and that he would not mind at all if his son was gay. He employed "loads" of gay people on his airline, Niki, "even as instructors", he added.

Christian Högl, the chairman of the Vienna-based gay rights group Hosi, said: "We are really shocked and very surprised that Mr Lauda harbours such prejudice against homosexuals to make such an unjustified attack."

The group has invited Lauda to the city's Rainbow Ball next month in a bid to educate him about homosexuality.

Dancing Stars is not due to start until March, but Lauda wants ORF bosses to pull the plug on the gay pairing.

"I demand that the general director Alex Wrabetz, who is in an upright marriage, stops this gay dance number – and that the PR-crazy Alfons Haider is not permitted to put on a gay show on state owned television," Lauda told Österreich.

Wrabetz said : "I don't chose Mr Lauda's pilots and he doesn't choose our dancers."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/26/niki-lauda-homophobia-row-austria

...

Meanwhile, Austrians have nothing against Haider dancing with a man, according to a new poll out today by Gallup/Ö24:



54% say Haider should dance with his male partner.



65% of women are in favor, while men are opposed by 44-56.



76% of under-30-year-olds are in favor, 30-50 year-olds are split and old people are opposed.



Members of Greens, SPÖ and BZÖ are in favor, members of FPÖ and ÖVP are opposed.

http://www.oe24.at/leute/oesterreich/Umfrage-Haider-soll-mit-Mann-tanzen/16402597

...

Interesting how closely the positions of Austrians mirror the voting patterns in the US on the issue of gays ...
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