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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: "So what?" says Sanders, on if his supporters make the convention "messy" on: May 23, 2016, 09:19:49 pm
Democracy should be messy.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump black-and-white video raises sexual assault charges against Bill Clinton on: May 23, 2016, 07:46:24 pm
Good lord, this is going to be an ugly election.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton ally McAuliffe under FBI probe on: May 23, 2016, 04:36:44 pm
Shocker.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14 on: May 23, 2016, 04:34:36 pm
Full report:

https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf

Whites: 50% Clinton, 41% Trump
Blacks: 76% Clinton, 17% Trump
Hispanics: 51% Clinton, 35% Trump
Asians: 49% Clinton, 40% Trump


18-34 year olds: 51% Clinton, 34% Trump
35-49 year olds: 56% Clinton, 33% Trump
50-64 year olds: 49% Clinton, 43% Trump
65+ year olds: 51% Clinton, 42% Trump

HAHAHAHA good one SurveyUSA

in 2012 Obama lost whites by 10 points...now they're telling us that Clinton is winning whites by 9 but Donald ing Trump is getting 35% of Latinos in California? That's a good one.

Throw this in the trash.

The subsamples in SUSA polls never make much sense but their toplines are usually (albeit not always) pretty good.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +18 on: May 23, 2016, 04:31:56 pm
Full report:

https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf

Whites: 59% Clinton, 36% Sanders
Hispanics: 52% Clinton, 46% Sanders
Blacks: 67% Clinton, 28% Sanders
Asians: 58% Clinton, 37% Sanders

18-34 year olds: 52% Sanders, 47% Clinton
35-49 year olds: 54% Clinton, 42% Sanders
50-64 year olds: 64% Clinton, 30% Sanders
65+ year olds: 70% Clinton, 25% Sanders

SUSA's subsamples continue to be nonsensical.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Renegade Jew Strikes Again on: May 22, 2016, 11:56:52 am

Is there any relation to the Alpha Jews?
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WaPo/ABC National: Trump +2, Clinton +2 w/ Romney on: May 22, 2016, 01:29:50 am
Hillary's numbers with whites are brutal.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WaPo/ABC National: Trump +2, Clinton +2 w/ Romney on: May 22, 2016, 12:50:59 am
She's only +2 with Romney pulling 22%? That's a bit hard to believe.

It'd be interesting to see the numbers in a Clinton/Trump/Romney/Sanders race.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 20, 2016, 07:56:21 pm
The latest count from Oregon:

Bernie Sanders 345,890 55.85%
Hillary Clinton 263,347 42.52%   
Write-in Votes 10,067 1.63%

Bernie's margin is still growing.

It also looks like the total number of write-in votes decreased for some reason.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: TN-Vanderbilt University: Trump + 9 on: May 19, 2016, 10:45:19 pm
TN is a perfect state to flip


lol.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NYT/CBS-National: Clinton +6 on: May 19, 2016, 10:42:07 pm
Crosstabs:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbsnyt-national-poll-hillary-clintons-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows/



Another poll in which Clinton does (slightly) better among members of her own party than Trump does among his.  Yet it's the Republicans who have "unified" while Democrats haven't?


Hillary's main problem has little to do with Democrats and a lot do with independents who tend to vote for Democrats.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NYT/CBS-National: Clinton +6 on: May 19, 2016, 10:34:41 pm
Let's not all act like CBS is the gold standard or anything...
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: PR-Pasquines: Clinton 66% Sanders 34% on: May 19, 2016, 10:30:51 pm
It might be a junk poll but the margin looks about right.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Hillary unite the democrats? on: May 19, 2016, 10:29:32 pm
It's not so much about uniting the Democrats as it is getting left-leaning independents to support her candidacy.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 19, 2016, 10:22:21 pm
Do we know how much is left to count in Oregon?

No, because the SOS's page is saying that they're are at 100% but they also said that yesterday and then there was another vote dump from Portland this afternoon anyway. lol.

I can't imagine there is too much left though. Like I said, they've nearly matched 2008's turnout as it is which is not something that many states can say on the Democratic side of things this cycle.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 19, 2016, 09:33:28 pm
Where things currently stand according to the Oregon Secretary of State's page:

Sanders 341,472 55.68%
Clinton 261,145 42.58%
Write-ins 10,702 1.74%

So Bernie's margin is now up to 13.10% and participation is rivaling what it was in 2008. It may even exceed it depending on how many ballots there are left to count.

This is in stark contrast to Kentucky, where turnout bordered on abysmal.

Also, Sanders is currently leading in Multnomah (Portland) 58.62%-40.66%.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Forget everything you know. This is a realigning election. on: May 19, 2016, 01:54:52 pm
Trump is not winning FL or Maine or Wisconsin or New Jersey. Clinton is not winning Utah or South Carolina or Mississippi. Forget about it.

Trump could certainly win Florida. The rest of those flips are extremely unlikely.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Rasmussen national: Trump +5 on: May 19, 2016, 11:44:07 am
I think Scotty needs to find a new career.  Polling clearly isn't working out for him.

He doesn't work there anymore.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: New Jersey: Quinnipiac 5/10-5/16, 1989 RV. Hillary 45% | TRUMP 38% on: May 19, 2016, 11:42:00 am
Bernie is +19.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Fox News National Poll: Trump +3 on: May 18, 2016, 06:01:05 pm
Sanders 46%
Trump 42%
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 18, 2016, 11:16:53 am
Oregon is feeling the BERN! Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley

Sites showing 10% margin with 77% in and Dave showing <10% with higher numbers. Awful showing by Bernie. Need to remove those undemocratic caucuses and he won't win states by 40% outside of Vermont.

I don't know where Dave is getting his numbers but CNN is now at 83% and has Sanders up by 10.2%. He's probably going to win by significantly more than 10% in the end and I fail to see how that's an awful showing for him in a closed primary.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 18, 2016, 02:27:03 am
The way OR is going, it should be a double digit win, though not a huge one. Probably 10-12%. That shouldn't be possible, since Sanders obviously can't ever win a closed primary, and his 46% win in WA would've been a loss if only it had been a primary! Anyway, I'll accept my accolades when Bernie crosses 55%. Yeah, it's not an extreme landslide, but it still shows that the PNW is Bernie country, if Hillary loses by more than 10% even under the best conditions for her.

I think he may end up winning every county too.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 17, 2016, 06:14:34 pm
DD HQ is a joke basically. Do they still think Hillary won Michigan?
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 17, 2016, 05:59:29 pm
Harlan County, USA is certainly Sanders country. Damn.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 17, 2016, 05:40:57 pm
AP called Kentucky for Clinton then took it back because they remembered all the polls weren't closed.

Going by Benchmark anyway.

How the hell could you call a state with 2% of the vote in and no exit poll? Ridiculous.
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