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August 30, 2016, 03:47:08 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Democrats would be losing to Trump right now? on: August 29, 2016, 06:31:49 pm
Webb and Chafee possibly. Sanders would be crushing him and O'Malley would at least be ahead of him.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7 on: August 29, 2016, 06:27:46 pm
Mr Neither is most favorable candidate!


What's interesting is that these favorability ratings predicted the correct winner in each election (Gore in 2000!) and came pretty close to predicting the pop vote margin.

Congratulations, President Neither!
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Reuters/Ipsos: (Most) States on: August 25, 2016, 08:24:27 am
Strange to say the least.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN Arizona and North Carolina Polls: AZ: Trump +5 NC: Clinton +1 on: August 24, 2016, 10:20:12 pm
Those are both within the ballpark of what I would expect. Johnson is performing better in North Carolina than I would have guessed.

Stein isn't on the ballot there, which might be helping Johnson a bit atm.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Coulter: If Clinton wins, illegal immigrant amnesty means permanent D majority on: August 23, 2016, 01:15:07 pm
Damn, Coulter is really trying to make Hillary seem more appealing to me.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Utah-PPP: Trump +15 on: August 23, 2016, 12:17:08 pm
Yeah, if she's not even close in a poll that includes three alternative candidates for Republicans, that's game over.

It's still an awful result for Trump though.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Gary Johnson polling at 7-16% but Stein is at 1-2%? on: August 22, 2016, 11:25:12 pm
Johnson is qualified and seems to understand basic science. Stein is not and does not.

Why's he against mandatory vaccinations then? His position on that issue is far worse than Stein's.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Gary Johnson polling at 7-16% but Stein is at 1-2%? on: August 22, 2016, 11:23:54 pm
There are several polls where Stein has been at 4%-7% and there are a number of polls that have Johnson under 7%. In the current RCP average, Johnson is at 8.9% and Stein is at 3.3%.

In reality, he's probably doing a bit better than Stein because Democrats seem to be more satisfied with Clinton than Republicans are with Trump. While there are plenty of Democrats who don't love Clinton she hasn't embarrassed herself in the way Trump has.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: AK-Alaska Dispatch News/Ivan Moore: Trump+9, Johnson @ 16% support on: August 22, 2016, 03:52:12 pm

Thanks.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: AK-Alaska Dispatch News/Ivan Moore: Trump+9, Johnson @ 16% support on: August 21, 2016, 02:14:32 pm
Do we know the Stein number?
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GE Wk 3: Who won the week? on: August 20, 2016, 10:18:07 am
Clinton. Trump is still a joke.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump win any counties in Hawaii and Vermont? on: August 19, 2016, 11:51:34 pm
Will he come in third, fourth or fifth in any counties in Vermont? That might be a better question.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which state exit polls are you most looking forward to? on: August 19, 2016, 03:32:44 pm
They are doing all fifty states this time. I confirmed that with Edison Research personally.

I'm most interested in New York, California, Vermont, Utah, New Mexico, Alaska and most of the obvious battleground states (Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Nevada...).
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Internal poll megathread on: August 19, 2016, 10:25:04 am
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-summer-warning-227129

Quote
While Trump was faring well in some conservative states like Missouri and Indiana, according to the RGAs figures, hes losing two states where Republicans are hoping to elect governors, North Carolina and Vermont.

I love how they bothered to tell us that Trump is losing in Vermont.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How many write-in votes will Cruz get? on: August 19, 2016, 10:21:45 am
What states would actually count the write-ins and which states would throw them out without counting them?

https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates#Requirements_for_write-in_candidates

There's only 7 for unregistered candidates.

So:
Vermont
New Hampshire
Rhode Island
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
Iowa
Oregon

Most of these states he got crushed in during the primaries.  Honestly looks like his total would just be a couple hundred, maybe in the low thousands.

That looks like a pretty strong line-up for Sanders write-ins though. I wonder if he'll actually get over 1% as a write-in in Vermont...
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How many write-in votes will Cruz get? on: August 19, 2016, 10:13:41 am
He probably won't get 1/10th of the write-ins that Bernie Sanders will get. Of course, we'll never know the exact numbers anyway.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Let's predict the margin - Ohio on: August 19, 2016, 07:45:22 am
I'll say...

Clinton 49%
Trump 46%
Johnson 3%
Stein 1%
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Pew National Poll: Clinton +4 on: August 19, 2016, 03:50:27 am
The hispanics love Jill!
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which candidate will sell the most Halloween masks? on: August 19, 2016, 02:25:03 am
Doesn't the candidate who wins always end up selling more masks?

I don't think that's going to be the case this year.

I still have my Mitt mask from' 12 btw.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NV-Suffolk: Clinton +2 on: August 18, 2016, 02:18:58 pm
Fave/unfave:

Obama: 53-44
Clinton: 44-50
Trump: 37-55

No way Trump wins with these numbers.

Probably not but isn't 37-55 relatively good for Trump?
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA/CO/VA-Quinnipiac: Clinton +3/+2 in IA, +10/+8 in CO, +12/+11 in VA on: August 18, 2016, 08:06:31 am
It's interesting how close Iowa has remained with Trump crashing almost everywhere else.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Green Party townhall thread on: August 18, 2016, 07:58:46 am
They did better than I would have expected them to do, especially Baraka.

I hate to say it but Chris Cuomo did a good job as well. He was pointed when it was warranted but this wasn't a hit job or anything.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WaPost, VA: Clinton +14 in two-way, +11 in four-way on: August 16, 2016, 07:45:32 am
Brutal.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary scrubs sexual assault pledge after allegations against Bill resurface on: August 16, 2016, 01:27:59 am
Does anyone else find it pretty hilarious and telling that jfern's effective replacement is a blue avatar?

Speaking of Jfern, what ever happen to him? Lol

He really hated Clinton and Trump, so I imagine he may have lost interest in the election.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would Gary Johnson affect the race if he was invited to a debate? on: August 15, 2016, 06:21:32 pm
I'd say Johnson would drop a little - the guy is not a good debater. Trump would probably hit him pretty hard.

He'd be better off sending Bill Weld in there for him.
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