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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: HYPO: Brian Schweitzer as the Democratic nominee in MT-SEN on: Today at 09:39:31 pm
His decision not to run for senate, we thought was gonna give him the time needed to chose to run for prez, instead he cost us perhaps control of the Senate, by making a wishy washy decision.

Had Begich, Landrieu and Schweizer been on record supporting Keystone, perhaps, then those races would of turned out differently.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Illinois Executive Mega-Thread on: Today at 09:36:35 pm
AG Lisa Madigan, who perhaps is positioning herself for higher office, desperately want her to run for senate, instead of gov, announced that a Special Election should be the Legislature final act on Jan 8th for that comptroller office in 2016, while Quinn is in office. Which I hope will propel her to her decision to run for Senate.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Larry Sabato's 2016 Presidential Rankings on: Today at 08:41:14 pm


prez map 2016
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: McClatchy/Marist (National): Hillary leads all Republicans by 12-14 points on: December 16, 2014, 04:01:01 pm
But, things went south in 2014, for the Dems isn't showing in the polls for our nominee and Congressional candidates.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Obama coalition in 2016 on: December 16, 2014, 03:23:49 pm
She will have the same coalition that Obama achieved back in 08, due to immigration and the women's vote, although turnout may drop, but not significantly.

If she puts a Castro on the ticket, it will help achieve success in hard fought out states of FL, CO and NV, although, it will be an unknown, due to it never tried before.

And Bill, will be the campaigner in chief, as well as her chief of staff should she achieve the presidency.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cook Political Report House and Senate Rankings on: December 16, 2014, 02:59:35 pm
IL, especially isn't safe yet, Foster, Bustos, Duckworth are all considering a run, and an outside chance Madigan runs. WI, NH and PA are clearly tossup/tilt GOP and throw FL in the mix, especially if Hilary runs
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would you currently rate the odds that Jeb Bush runs? on: December 15, 2014, 07:12:53 pm
He feels the other G O P challengers have ethics issues, even Mitt Romney.  But, Jeb have the nepotism name and the Torture challenges from his brothers administration.  

Hillary is leading all G O P challengers, with a favorable congressional map, it is very challenging for any of the G O P challengers to win. That's why Mitt is such credible in the G O P ranks, he  is already battle tested from 12.

Rank 40-50%.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Sabato's First 2016 House Ratings on: December 15, 2014, 07:04:58 pm
Dems should be able to secure 5 G O P  senate seats and if there is a mini wave a sixth one, but all said and done, Dems will probably secure 17 House seats, still securing a G O P House.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: if you could travel back in time to this point two years ago on: December 15, 2014, 06:49:03 pm
Schweizer, Udall, and Begich and Landrieu would have won had they been on record on the Keystone pipeline vote.  And perhaps get a compromise boarder security bill first and amnesty later, immigration reform package out of House. If certain conditions were achieved then amnesty provisions can go into effect. Get the torture report out as soon as possible.

Barring that, the same events would have occurred.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: "Cromnibus" Spending Bill - Averting a Shutdown on: December 14, 2014, 09:39:37 am
Clearly, the populist agenda won and not the establishment agenda, which dropped the ball on this one, and clearly heading into a General election, populism can win, like Obama did in 2008.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Nightmare Senate Scenario for Dems on: December 14, 2014, 09:36:25 am
Should we get a wave going into the House of above 10 seats, Dems can certainly get 4 or more seats, but surely, we must get that wave going. Burr can be our 5th pickup, due to our governor chances in NC, in 2016.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Virginia be more Democratic than Pennsylvania? on: December 14, 2014, 09:33:26 am
Only if Webb, not Hilary is the nominee.  Certainly, Clinton was  our standard bearer in 2008 and should be in 2016. But, what Obama has taught us, that especially in the Democratic primary, party ranks doesn't matter as much as it did in 2000 and 2004.

The Cromnibus spending bill, which was a poison pill to Mainstreet, and a gift to Wallstreet has resurrected the populist agenda within the Democratic party and establishment can go into a downward spiral.  Hillary shouldn't take it for granted now, the coronation, she was hoping for, look out for Webb, which I can get behind or any other anti establishment candidate.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Sabato: Initial 2016 Senate ratings on: December 14, 2014, 09:12:00 am
We don't have candidates yet, so Dems are favored to net gain seats. AK, OH, NC and FL fall in the same category as lean G O P but can be competitive, if Hilary tops 280 electoral votes like Obama did.  But otherwise NH, not OHIO, is our tipping point state for control of Senate.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Sabato: Republicans set to expand Gov gains in 2016? on: December 14, 2014, 06:36:45 am
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Sabato: Initial 2016 Senate ratings on: December 14, 2014, 06:24:40 am


I could definitely see this happening, I thought Portman was initially favored, but we should and must win Ohio and thus win the election if we gonna beat Jeb, and FL would be slightly favored for Rubio because of Jeb homestate status.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Would Mark Udall have won if... on: December 13, 2014, 11:51:21 pm
Delays in Keystone and Immigration reform wasn't a smart move by Obama, in states like AK, CO and NC, states in which we should of won.  The public deserved to know where the Democrats stood on these issues, and yes Torture could of turned these races in the Democratic favor along with putting them on record with the other two issues.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: IL Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka dies at 70 on: December 13, 2014, 11:43:26 pm
She lost a winnable race to Rod Blagojevich, which she shouldn't have.  She wasn't that well regarded in the mold of lets say Madigan due to rewarding campaign contributors in state contracts.

RIP Topinka, controller was the only office she was was able to hold. While the G O P held Quinn responsible, Dems still dominate Illinois politics.

The ad by Rod Blagojech which showed Topinka alongside George Ryan highlighted that exact point with campaign contributors with state contracts.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Selzer national poll: Clinton leads GOP field by 6-13 points on: December 12, 2014, 04:50:21 pm


Jeb is just like Romney 52-48% for Clinton
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Sabato: Republicans set to expand Gov gains in 2016? on: December 11, 2014, 05:09:00 pm
NC is definitely a good pickup for us opportunity, otherwise ratings would remain the same in my view.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Sabato: Initial 2016 Senate ratings on: December 11, 2014, 05:07:55 pm
Good map but in a Democratic year, I definitely see NV switching sides and Portman and Ayotte in a Democratic year or Rubio are ripe for picking, but good map otherwise.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Selzer national poll: Clinton leads GOP field by 6-13 points on: December 10, 2014, 11:07:48 am
Hilary proves herself in another poll despite the likes of Romney, Jeb or Christie.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is the chance of a democratic ticket of Hillary/Julian Castro carrying TX? on: December 10, 2014, 11:06:44 am
Nill, but the ticket will be able to carry NV, CO, and FL.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Nightmare Senate Scenario for Dems on: December 10, 2014, 10:00:37 am


The red states are the states that Clinton can improve on Obama's 2012 by 3%, that's why these states are critical for Dems to seize control of Senate. As far as NH and CO, a good VP pick can help Clinton in those states as well. I can see Clinton matching Obama's 2008 performance in NV and WI by winning those by 10 and IL and PA with 55-58%, and AK may be the Wildcard for a max net gain of 6 seats.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why is Obama so unpopular? on: December 09, 2014, 03:03:52 pm
Obama was considered a change agent, not a typical Democrat and once people saw through that, they turned against him, and gave him subpar ratings like the rest of the politicans in Washington, like the fellow Congressmen.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Nightmare Senate Scenario for Dems on: December 09, 2014, 02:57:18 pm
Rubio, Murkowski, Johnson, Kirk, Ayotte and Toomey are rype for the picking if we have any chance of holding onto the senate in 2018, due to possible Claire McCaskill and Joe Manchin retirements.  Whereas Portman and Burr may withstand the Hilary coattails and win.  Likes of Madigan and Sestak will be also assisted by Clinton winning those states with 55-58% of the vote. 


So, any crossover appeal that Kirk and Toomey has may be bombarded by the Hilary Juggernaunt in IL and PA. And as usually Clintons do very well in FL, which may be the tipping point senate race, and I hope Gwen Graham gets into it and the same can be said  in AK.






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