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August 30, 2015, 10:58:19 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Des Moines Register: Sanders Within 7 of Clinton in Iowa on: Today at 10:46:10 am
Tom Harkin endorsed Clinton; whether or not Biden jumps in; his endorsement of Clinton or entry into race will hurt Sanders. But, SC is Clinton wall state.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Obama has decimated the Democratic Party on: Today at 07:59:22 am
Obama or even Hilary wont win House back. But Hilary is a triangulator and will muscle in a boarder first security fense; as some sort of legal status for immigrants will be worked out with a guest worker program; as well as means testing medicare and Keystone Pipeline.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Ky. Governor's race: Who will win? on: Today at 07:55:09 am
Conway by a point or so.

Bevin is a retread from the KY Senate race. And he was soundly def in that primary. And all state offices will be won by Dems.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. on: Today at 07:24:42 am
I apologize. No, seriously. I forgot that you're just editing the original post every time from now on. Sorry.

But still, this is a common WV pollster with a decent track record.

I was going to wait until Wednesday to show any new polls. But I could edit the Clinton-Trump map  to remove the numbers of electoral votes and add in a shade for West Virginia to prove someone wrong about my bias.

It might be tempting when a state not recently polled appears. I would do that for Georgia.   

This is off-topic, but you can't be surprised that people call you a hack when you're convinced that Roy Blunt is toast in 2016 but Michael Bennet is going to win easily because it's a presidential year, even though his approval ratings are about the same as Blunt's.

Michael Bennett will win because Gov Hickenlooper has a special connection to Latino voters; won in a GOP wave.

ROY Blunt will lose because Chris Koster; the Attny Gen in MO isnt a dead duck like GOP presumed he would be due Nixon. He is close enough to win GOV. Thus; Kander riding his coattails.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Des Moines Register: Sanders Within 7 of Clinton in Iowa on: Today at 05:13:00 am
Bye Hillary!



The debates haven't started yet. Unlike Aug Debates when presumed frontrunner Jeb stumbled; Trump clearly won the debate. Hilary wont make that mistake.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How could Republicans win without Ohio? on: Today at 04:51:15 am
Dems can win Latino corridor of NV; CO and Pa, but GOP has to have OH.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Chance that 2016 Map is Same as 2012 on: August 29, 2015, 04:40:13 pm
FL; OH and Va flips; leaving CO, NV; Pa as the bellweathers; like Cook PVI shows.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MI-EpicMRA: Bush leads, Trump trails on: August 29, 2015, 02:30:56 pm
I think Trump has a good chance of winning MI. His populist rhetoric will resonate with the white working class.

Compare this to recent UK election where the white working class completely abandoned the Labour in favor of UKIP. Trump is Cameron and Farage in one person.


Trump has no chance, if GOP take MI; its a landslide; it will be a very close election; with CO, NV & Pa and NH deciding
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PA-Franklin & Marshall: Toomey up on: August 29, 2015, 08:38:05 am
Toomey is still more vulnerable than Portman; and Dems can still win this race. It isnt a PPP poll.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac-National: Clinton leads all GOPers, but Biden is doing better. on: August 27, 2015, 01:09:53 pm
CLINTON he can beat; not Biden.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac-National: Clinton leads all GOPers, but Biden is doing better. on: August 27, 2015, 01:02:47 pm
Trump is riding high in the polls due to his standing in GOP polls. Once Biden or Hilary debate him, he wont stand to challenge of birthright citizenship with Latinos and lose the Latino vote. But he will inherit alot of the evangelical vote found in 266 electors while dems win 272; just falling short of prez. But Jeb; Kaisch can actually win with Latinos.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH-PPP: New Hampshire doesn't appear to be a battleground state on: August 27, 2015, 06:35:31 am
CLINTON v Trump NH 52-46

CLINTON V Jeb NH 50-47
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac-National: Clinton leads all GOPers, but Biden is doing better. on: August 27, 2015, 06:33:39 am
Hillary leads nationally but looses every swing state by large margins according to Quinnipiac...


Something doesn't add up.

QU polls CO, IA, Pa the best; those are the 3 bellweathers along with NV; WI. I would pay attention to those states. But; PPP poll doesnt underpoll Clinton in CO.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac-National: Clinton leads all GOPers, but Biden is doing better. on: August 27, 2015, 06:17:15 am
Seems very plausible; CLINTON reinforces the 272 map, CO; NV & Pa; while Biden can win either Va or OH. I want Biden to be Dems nominee.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Atlas 3 way poll (fixed) on: August 26, 2015, 05:18:43 pm
Clinton easily.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Pros and Cons of a Biden/ Warren ticket on: August 26, 2015, 01:09:54 pm
Con; he wouldn't pick Warren; he will pick Warner, Kaine or Castro.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Message to other Hillary supporters on this board...... on: August 26, 2015, 01:07:58 pm
My mistake; its the blue wall; that Nate Silver gave the Latino states of CO,NV&:Catholic state of Pa, locking in 272 electors.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Message to other Hillary supporters on this board...... on: August 26, 2015, 12:57:35 pm
Yeah, there is a narrow 272 path for her to presidency. But, Biden can win Va or OH negating the 272 freiwal, and sealing the deal.

Oh, he wont have to worry about Pa; he's from DEL, surrounding media market.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: OH/PA Quinnipiac on: August 26, 2015, 10:31:15 am
The last PPP polls had Toomey up only four points. The Koch bros are spending every last dollar they have in Pa and OH.

Gov Rendell has just announced his support for Kate McGinty. It wont win her the seat, but is better than his lack of endorsement of Sestak.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: George W. Bush will headline fundraiser for Jeb on: August 26, 2015, 09:17:52 am
Dubya is reason for the GOP handicap in natl campaigns & Senate races, nice work Dubya. Obama wouldn't have established the 272 coalition; blue wall without you.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Gravis national poll: Clinton 54% Sanders 21% Biden 13% Warren 7% on: August 26, 2015, 09:14:40 am
Biden, when he announces, will focus on SC.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Gravis (national): Trump Crushing on: August 26, 2015, 09:13:42 am
Go Trump.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: OH/PA Quinnipiac on: August 26, 2015, 08:23:28 am
The encouraging news; is the Oh senate poll; we know Clinton is a lock for winning Pa 20 electors, meaning McGinty will come around. But, Strickland;  like Kander can win.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Gravis national poll: Clinton losing to Trump, Carson, and others on: August 26, 2015, 08:08:37 am
No she doesn't,  CLINTON is leading in other polling firms, she is in a race. She should win.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Gravis national poll: Clinton losing to Trump, Carson, and others on: August 26, 2015, 08:02:45 am
CLINON will trounce Trump;  & win a 272 type of election should Jeb be nominee.
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