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September 02, 2014, 06:33:39 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: RCP: Why Republicans Will Take the Senate (Part 2) on: September 01, 2014, 09:02:38 pm
Scott Brown, Romney proteje is doing poorly in NH. The Romney effect is limited.

LA and AK were the only two states to move to Obama in 2012.

Coin Flip or narrow Dem advantage in senate, but not GOP wave or favored.

2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which is more likely to lose? on: September 01, 2014, 08:57:45 pm
McConnell, the Dems managed to pull off the AR, LA, KY corridor during Clinton term, and GOP never pulled MN off.

But, aside that, McConnell campaign have problems such as communications and campaign management.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Dems or GOP: Who has a more "diverse" electorate? on: September 01, 2014, 08:45:02 pm
But aside from Asians, they are historically conservative.

Dems have the multicultural thing as of now due to Obama.

4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2016 Senate elections on: September 01, 2014, 08:29:07 pm
Yeah
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: RCP: Why Republicans Will Take the Senate (Part 2) on: September 01, 2014, 08:25:58 pm
Why the GOP may not take senate.

GOP maxed out their gains in the first midterm in 2010, but failed to get senate, unlike 1995. Whereas, because of lame duck status in 1986 and 2006, outparty gained most seats.

The GOP boxed themselves in calling for impeachment. If they dont capture both branches in Fall, staus quo remains and investigations would have a limited effect.

ACA, having a limited effect on GOP chances.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: 2014 Gubernatorial Predictions on: September 01, 2014, 08:11:31 pm
AK Dem pickup
AR Ross def Hutchinson
FL Crist def Scott D pickup
IL Quinn def Rauner
ME Michaud def LePage D pickup
PA Wolf def Corbett D pickup
RI Raimondo wins
WI Burke  def Walker D pickup
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What are/is your favorite 2014 Senate election(s)? on: September 01, 2014, 08:02:50 pm
AK, AR and NC.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2016 Senate elections on: September 01, 2014, 08:02:00 pm
The Dems will have a very good of winning in Pa should Sestek run. Dem nominee should win IL and Pa big. Maggie Hassen will be very competetive in NH. And IL with Duckworth in IL and generic Dem running in WI we should be able to make headway in Senate.

Lastly, FL will be good to come our way as well.
3-5 seat net.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Dems or GOP: Who has a more "diverse" electorate? on: September 01, 2014, 05:48:30 pm
Dems Blacks, Latinos and single moms

GOP married couples, whites and Arabs
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IL: WAA: Durbin only up 7 on: September 01, 2014, 10:30:43 am
Durbin will hang on, at worst by six. Speaker Madigan should have forced a competetive primary, who is also state Dem chair, to force Quinn out.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY-SUSA: McConnell +4 on: September 01, 2014, 10:26:32 am
That solves that.

Lol, I was responding to the fact that the race hasnt changed all that much since July where we have a slim advantage.


Mitch wins but still min leader.

2nd tier battleground, Hagen as well as Begich has sucked all oxygen out room with the Senate 50 seat maj.


I think somebody sucked all the oxygen out of your room.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IL: WAA: Durbin only up 7 on: September 01, 2014, 12:26:48 am
Durbin will win 8-10 pts. The very worst by 6 but not in any real danger yet.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: As of now, which race is more likely to be within six points? on: August 31, 2014, 07:25:41 pm
New Hampshire, I guess.  I don't think it will be that close, but there's no way Weiland is going to make it close here. Sad

Mnt and WVa are surely gone for us. As far as AR or SD, there is new polls showing otherwise. SD and AR and ND have been known to split votes as well as AK, for gov, sen and House.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: Baker pulls ahead in Massachusetts on: August 31, 2014, 06:43:20 pm
Mass is one state that votes very indy in gubernatorial elections. I see this as Coakley loss. Not an effect on the Dem party in these midterms. We can still win in WI and FL while losing this seat.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Kansas: Survey USA: Roberts + 5 on: August 31, 2014, 06:31:23 pm
Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1932. Obviously, I'd love to see Democrats take this seat, but the reality is that this is still Kansas we're talking about. It's one of the most historically Republican states in the country.


This is also the state where the backlash against Sebelius came from on Obamacare, and forced her outster.

The Dems should spend resources elsewhere, like IL gov and MI senate and FL gov.
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16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: AZ-Rasmussen: Tie on: August 31, 2014, 06:10:40 pm
Probably not.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Women in Senate on: August 31, 2014, 06:05:30 pm
Hagan or Landrieu lose, and Capito wins.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Can you vote in the 2014 Senate elections? on: August 31, 2014, 04:58:38 pm
Yes, I'll vote for Durbin.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: WV-R. L. Repass & Partners/Charleston Daily Mail: Tennant = done on: August 31, 2014, 04:21:13 pm
GOP women like Capito or Ayotte or Haley will win.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY-SUSA: McConnell +4 on: August 30, 2014, 08:23:43 pm
That solves that.

2nd tier battleground, Hagen as well as Begich has sucked all oxygen out room with the Senate 50 seat maj.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Andrew Cuomo electable for America in 2016? on: August 30, 2014, 08:19:55 pm
 No, only in a Dem wave yr. The  fact the Dems have turned to Hilary, leads to believe that there needs to be a consensus candidate in a 3rd Dem term that can win.

It looks like a somewhat neutral yr with small pickups in the Senate.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: Kansas: Survey USA: Davis + 8 on: August 30, 2014, 07:46:08 pm
KS will come around anyways.

We should focus on Walker and getting him out.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY-SUSA: McConnell +4 on: August 30, 2014, 07:31:17 pm
ALG may not lead in the polls, but she can still win it on the final poll on election day.

Still hoping this will be the bellweather of the night, along with MI and IA, if McConnell loses we hold senate.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: As of now, which race is more likely to be within six points? on: August 30, 2014, 06:39:57 pm
Without a doubt South Dakota. Scott Brown is already very well known in New Hampshire, which is not the case for Weiland in SD. Those who already know Weiland are very positive towards him though.

Shaheen will outlast any debator who goes toe to toe, just like she did Sununu.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Gubernatorial Endorsements (2014) on: August 30, 2014, 06:21:31 pm
Brown
Hickenlooper
Malloy
Crist
Carter
Ige
Quinn
Michaud
Brown
Dayton
Hassen
Cuomo
Kitzaber
Wolf
Raimondo
Burke
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