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March 26, 2015, 10:40:44 pm
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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MD-Senate - Sources: Mikulski expected to retire on: Today at 08:26:05 pm
If Robin Kelly gets into ILL race, then there may be a chance to get these two women elected to senate. But, the status quo candidates may win, due to party leaders, not outside groups' influence.

I would also like to see a primary poll in MD and IL.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MT-Gravis: Gov. Bullock (D) not safe in 2016 on: Today at 08:19:22 pm
Dems will net lose 1 gov in a combo of Mnt, MO and KY. MNT and MO are rype for pickings.

MNT? Use understandable abbreviations, please.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MD-Senate - Sources: Mikulski expected to retire on: Today at 07:37:07 pm
That's good that Gillibrand is doing this, with all do respect, Van Hollen is a fundraising machine, Dems need him, if they want to compete in future Senate races. As Van Hollen spearheaded the House congressional committee as well.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Chicago mayoral election today (24 February 2015) on: Today at 07:32:49 pm
Yeah, all the non voters in Feb went to Emanuel, not Garcia, he hoped he would get.

Hope we get some new aldermen, but the city needs to cut cost. Reducing number of aldermen is one way.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IL-Sen. 2016 Grapevine on: Today at 05:54:16 pm
Excellent news, Duckworth is in.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: PA-Franklin & Marshall: Toomey up 5, tons of undecideds on: Today at 05:53:21 pm
Well, Democratic targets of control of Senate remains: WI, OH, Pa and IL.  Also, FL for the 51 clear majority.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Number of female senators after 2016 elections? on: Today at 05:50:58 pm
No net change, outgoing Senator Mikulski, replaced by Van Hollen. But, Kamela Harris replaces Boxer. Also, Duckworth def Kirk.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MT-Gravis: Gov. Bullock (D) not safe in 2016 on: Today at 02:22:39 pm
Great Gov, who mistakenly appointed Walsh Senator and is only mildly favored.

But, I do see a scenario in which Dems lose Mnt and MO, but win NC, WVa, KY and NH govs.

WV is gone.

Unless Manchin runs, this.

If Manchin declines, then the only question is which republican wins the party nod, the Dem candidate has no chance.




GOP Govs

Mnt: Gov Bullock loses due to Joe Walsh debacle INC defeated GOP pickup
IN: Gov Pence reelected
ND: Gov Darlyple reelected
UT: Gov Herbert reelected
MO: GOP pickup
MS: Gov Bryant reelected
LA: Gov Vitter elected

Dem govs

KY: Gov Conway def Cromer
WA: Gov Inslee reelected
WVA: Kessler or Manchin elected
NC: Roy Cooper def Gov McCrory   INC def Dem pickup
NH: Hassen or Kuster is elected gov or reelected
VT: Gov Shumlin reelected
DeL: Dem gov
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Describe a Mitt Romney 2012 Hillary Clinton 2016 voter on: March 25, 2015, 05:45:09 am
A white, female, Baby Boom voter, who is in 60's, who want females to break glass ceiling. And didnt vote for Obama either in 2008 primary.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: States where African-American candidates have a hard time winning statewide on: March 25, 2015, 05:23:05 am
Every state except Illinois and Maryland. Hopefully, Donna Edwards and Robin Kelly successfully wins.


OK should have run JC Watts replacing Don Nichols, but in Deep south and Mnt W are the ones that Blks have a hard time winning. TN and Harold Ford comes to mind. TX Ron Kirk and 2002 senate race to replace Phil Gramms.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nate Silver gives Clinton 23% odds of losing the nomination on: March 25, 2015, 04:49:05 am
As Clinton has proven, she is at least a statistical dead heat with the GOP nominee. Before, she seemed to be much more vulnerable to Jeb, than Walker, when Jeb jumped into race.

But, Dems which they hoped she would have done, see no reason to dump her now, since she is holding up against opposition.

She will have to make a gaffe like in 2008, on MLK day.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: ME-GOV 2018: Collins for Governor? on: March 25, 2015, 04:35:57 am
Unless she picks her replacement very carefully, RIP that seat for Republicans. Keep in mind that a special election would be held in 2020, a presidential year.

I bet that guy who won the House seat would still be favored.

Yeah, I wouldn't underestimate Poliquin, if he's appointed. Well have to see how he holds up next year, but Maine in 2014 already had the highest turnout of any state. The bump Democrats get from Presidential turnout likely wouldn't be as pronounced here.

I really hopes she does this, Dems definately need at least an open seat in a state like ME to pick up, and hopefully, Dean Heller run for gov of NV, too.

Cain and Dina Titus can become new female senators if Heinkamp and McCaskill lose.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 Republican Supermajority? on: March 25, 2015, 04:28:16 am
The only problem with your scenarios is that Dems are favored to pick up key governorships in big states in IL with Lisa Madigan, OH with Tim Ryan and MD. In conjunction with those pickups are seats where Dem senators Baldwin, Ben Nelson and Sherrod Brown are running.

I only caution the GOP, in 2018, should Dems do fairly well, in 2016, 2018 wont be as bad as GOP hopes. With ME and NV at risk, should Collins and Heller run for gov.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MT-Gravis: Gov. Bullock (D) not safe in 2016 on: March 24, 2015, 11:14:10 pm
Great Gov, who mistakenly appointed Walsh Senator and is only mildly favored.

But, I do see a scenario in which Dems lose Mnt and MO, but win NC, WVa, KY and NH govs.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 Republican Supermajority? on: March 24, 2015, 10:31:47 pm
Since the 2016, election will probably go in Dems direction, the GOP are looking ahead to 2018, to win. Dems will net at least 4 seats to regain majority in OH, Pa, WI and IL. Maybe five with NH or FL at stake.

The supermajority strategy wont work because there are moderates like Collins and King who win stand in way and prevent legislation that wont cross party lines. Bipartisanship works on both ends. As Dems found out even with Specter, they had 60, and they had to compromise.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Describe a Kerry 2004/McCain 2008/Obama 2012 voter on: March 24, 2015, 10:24:55 pm
A Jack Murtha military vet, from Pa, who thought Prez Obama was too young, at first, to be president.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Describe a Bradley '00/Lieberman '04 Democrat on: March 24, 2015, 10:22:17 pm
A. college age voter who was South Beach, FL, who was of jewish or Latin decent who supported Gore in the Recount debacle, despite the personal shortcomings of Prez Clinton.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: 2004: Hillary Clinton vs. George W. Bush on: March 24, 2015, 06:17:24 pm


Clinton/Clark 277
Dubya/Cheney 261
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How would you replace/fix ObamaCare? on: March 24, 2015, 06:10:19 pm
Create a National Health Service, ban private insurance.

Too many overweight, healthy people not going to doctor, due the high cost of insurance.  And the decline of pernament work and replacing it with staffing or part time jobs is taking the incentive of health care away from those people.

If we can create some type of network, where everyone gets involved, just maybe, those castastrophic cases, where overweight healthy people will go to doctor.

Meanwhile create more incentives for Health saving accounts for the lower income people. And get rid of tax penalty for those individuals, who can't meet financial income.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-PPP: Hillary leads all Pubs on: March 24, 2015, 05:47:24 pm
Hopefully, Clinton's appeal towards Hispanics makes this the tipping point state of the election aside from CO,NV, WI, PA and NH.

21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Chicago mayoral election today (24 February 2015) on: March 24, 2015, 05:34:20 pm

Very good.  Chuy Garcia is a big-government liberal who wants to spend billions on unfunded programs and says he is looking for "creative financing" to pay for them.  He is 100% in the pocket of teacher's and public employees unions and refuses to reform pensions.

Rahm Emanuel is a centrist, pro-business leader who supports school choice and is reasonable on most issues.

I hope Rahm gets the GOP/Indy/Libertarian vote, lest Chicago end up with a DeBlasio/Warren-style Dem as mayor (of course, others on this forum would favor that happening, but I digress).

Garcia is the underdog, but may overcome the odds, if a half a dozen of these aldermanic races flip, and it rests on those. If he can flip those 5 or 6 races, there is path to winning.  But, if status quo remains Emanuel wins. And we all knew that.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Most Conservative and Liberal Presidents since 1964 on: March 24, 2015, 05:03:58 pm
Wartime presidents

Reagan  Denuclurized USSR
Dubya  Helped curbed Arab military agression
Bush I. Cold War ended
Nixon. Helped ended Vietnam
Ford.   Brought war torn Asia to peace process


Homeland security presidents


Carter. Had no military operation during presidency
Clinton  Reformed Taxes
Obama. Health care Reform
Johnson. Thurgood Marshall Justice on SCOTUS
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MT-Gravis: Gov. Bullock (D) not safe in 2016 on: March 24, 2015, 04:41:20 pm
Great Gov, who mistaken appointed Walsh as Senator. But at end he will narrowly win.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NH-Gravis: Ayotte+2 vs. Hassan on: March 24, 2015, 12:35:14 pm
D+1
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IL-Sen. 2016 Grapevine on: March 23, 2015, 12:46:40 pm
Judicial nomination on the party of senate leadership McConnell has been astounding and clearly hurt Kirk, who back at home, overwhelmingly support for the Loretta Lynch nomination.

Had the Dems used the Lame Duck session to confirm her, and not went ahead with the executive action on immigrants, which senate Republican leadership has used to block her, it would have been okay.  But, it didn't happen.

Now, Kirk is suffering, along with other blue state leadership, for stalling tactics, as well as trying to defund homeland security bill.
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