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July 23, 2017, 05:56:03 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will Kennedy retire Monday? on: June 26, 2017, 06:59:46 am
Yes, I feel your pain and I lay the blame on Clinton. The NRA along with Koch brothers put this right wing govt we have. But, voters don't want their taxes raised, that's why conservatives govern.

Miranda rights and equal liberties are in the Constitution.

But, voter rights with conservative gerrrymandering can set Dems back in House again. But, if Dems gain the House this year, they can free themselves of that burden.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Koch brothers to spend $400 million in 2018 elections on: June 25, 2017, 11:15:51 pm
The only thing they have bought is not having Garland seated on the Federal Bench and overturning concealed carry guns.

With Kennedy's pending retirement, civil rights and abortions will still be legalized.

By, 2020 Dems will have a unified gov
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump vs. Martin O'Malley on: June 25, 2017, 11:10:02 pm
O'Malley will put WI, Iowa and VA in play for 266-279 electors as would Booker
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Martin O'Malley/Steve Bullock 2020: Pros and Cons on: June 25, 2017, 11:08:34 pm
Bullock problem is SSM and done after term finishes.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will Kennedy retire Monday? on: June 25, 2017, 07:26:35 pm
No, not insane, because we know that the economy, even with unemployment rate down, isn't all that good with homelessness. And when you have a difficult economy, eventhough Democrats are good for the poor, people don't want their taxes raised. That's why Trump and the GOP won.

Dems will be disillusioned, but will want to win in 2020.
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Prophecies of Da-Jon (OC) on: June 25, 2017, 07:21:07 pm
I will take it off, but California, with Kennedy's possible retirement, is very resentful at the Trump presidency for obvious reasons, SSM and abortion.  If Kennedy retires, CA will be a land mine for the GOP in 2018 and 2020.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Kennedy retires, Roe is overruled then what? on: June 25, 2017, 07:18:05 pm
If Justice Kennedy does in fact retire, and the judicial filibuster is anulled, there is nothing they can do but use their unanimous consent, last line of defense to block the vacancy. I don't know how long they can hold this up, but it would be worth a try.

But, unfortunately, for the Dems, with the detriment of the Clinton loss, it looks like Kennedy wants to leave the Crt.

Leaving no conservative vacancy to fill, for the Dems until Justice Thomas leaves.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New Battleground Map on: June 25, 2017, 07:06:31 pm
Dems don't have a bench, but it won't be Patty Judge.
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Prophecies of Da-Jon (OC) on: June 25, 2017, 07:04:37 pm
S=Secular P=Populist cc=compassionate conservative, T= Tory or Trad't the UK version, without using Democrat or Republican. Just use Ideological labels like the Tories or Whigs or Labor.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Did Trump set a new trend in the Rust Belt? on: June 25, 2017, 07:02:50 pm
Iowan can be won back, but Ohio is trending away and the Dems can resolidify the 272-266 map of 2012.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New Battleground Map on: June 25, 2017, 07:01:06 pm
Because Iowa is particularly in play because of Ernst. NC isn't needed, but still can move in a Democratic direction and FL is always a swing state, especially if a Dem governor is elected.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Kentucky be won by a Democrat in 2020? on: June 25, 2017, 06:58:52 pm
If the Dems really go after McConnell, they can win it, with Andy Beshear. Trump has angered Iowans, Ohioans and Virginians with his ethics.  The same WWC that he inspired through the Sanders mov't in 2016. And with the help of Mike Pence.

But, its up to Andy Beshear in what he wants to do for future politics.
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of OC's new display name on: June 25, 2017, 06:54:48 pm
The fact is that, the country has just from under Barack Obama leadership.  And the economy was good, but still not good enough to raise interest rates. But, that was no reason to put Trump in, who has done nothing but divide the country.

In 2020, the country will resurrect Obama's leadership by electing Ben Jealous 2018 and Cory Booker to office.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: GA-GOV 2018: Can Democrats win Georgia's governorship? on: June 25, 2017, 06:48:20 pm
Carl Brewer and Ben Jealous can be elected Gov and so can a black female. We will have to see.
15  General Discussion / History / Re: Why was Bill Clinton so unpopular at the beginning of his first term? on: June 25, 2017, 06:44:38 pm
He didn't have an enemy. Once, Gingrich came in on the impeachment trail, the country unified under Bill Clinton, not never before, because he was under attack.

And Dems were coming from under the Jim Wright scandal of the early 90's, then the GOP had the Gingrich scandals.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Nancy Pelosi is a huge burden for Dems on: June 25, 2017, 06:14:28 pm
Because right now, you will be replacing her with Stenya Hoyer who isn't any better. Dems can keep Pelosi and hopes that she becomes Speaker again either in 2018 or 2020, and replace her with Xavier Becerra, or someone younger, rather than have Hoyer as minority leader.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rob Portman of 2018 on: June 25, 2017, 06:12:07 pm
Sherrod Brown
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will Kennedy retire Monday? on: June 25, 2017, 05:54:13 pm
On Gerrymandering, all the Dems have to do is secure the House in 2018 and win the majority of governorships in 2018, so that any Trump appointment can't start monkeying around with Congressonal redistricting that the Dems put up for 2020.

The Conservative Justices are more likely to put a stay on the Democratic gains in 2020 than if the Dems give them a favorable map for reapportionment in the minority.

Clarence Thomas already ruled on Democratic gerrymandering in NC that affirms this. So, lets get started.

As for the other issues, 20 week Abortions are gonna be the limit with parental notification. As well as Obamacare, because of Justice Roberts.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Did Trump set a new trend in the Rust Belt? on: June 25, 2017, 05:39:31 pm
Maybe, maybe not. But, Ohio is interesting.  Dems don't need Ohio anylonger.  They need to concentrate their resources on VA, PA, WI and MI.  With WI the most important.  If anyone can solidify the blue wall of 279, its Cory Booker, who is in the same mold as Obama.

2000-2004 OH tipping point



Bush/Cheney 266
Kerry/Edwards 272 would have won with Veep Gephardt



2008-2012 Pennsylvania tipping point

Obama/Biden 272
RomneyRyan 266


2016Virginia tipping point




Trump/Pence 259
Clinton/Kaine 279 would have won with Veep Warner
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Did Democrats take Obama for granted? on: June 25, 2017, 05:32:59 pm
Hillary Clinton would have passed comprehensive immigration reform and passage of Obamacare would have sealed the deal.  And we don't know what effect it would have had on Congressional races thereafter.

But, realizing this mistake, Dems will make no hesitation, with another Black president in Cory Booker to help bring Latinos in by passing the referendum on statehood with PR and comprehensive immigration reform even if it means nuking the legislative filibuster.  If, after, weakened Trump/Pence admin leads to the Democratic trifecta in 2021
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is AZ a realistic pickup for Dems without a strong third party? on: June 25, 2017, 05:30:00 pm
We will see about 2018 has to say about it, AZ and NC are trending blue.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New Battleground Map on: June 25, 2017, 05:29:15 pm
Its a good map
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New Battleground Map on: June 25, 2017, 03:32:01 pm


279 D
209 R
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Kennedy retires, Roe is overruled then what? on: June 25, 2017, 02:36:43 pm
Dems shouldn't be worried about CRTs. They can't take away freedom. The Hughes CRT during FDR's term was right as well. Affirmative action as well as civil rights are in the Constitution. It's just gonna get a little tough. But, every state has ruled, even TX, 20 weeks for abortions is the limit.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Ralph Nader: The Democrats are unable to defend the US on: June 25, 2017, 02:32:52 pm
No, third parties like in 2000 and in 16 took away the Dems chances for victory, that's the fact.
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