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January 28, 2015, 09:14:38 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 2004 Bush vs. Dean on: Today at 09:05:16 am


Dean-Clark 279
Bush-Cheney 259

Dean would have carried Iowa and Clark would have carried Ohio

Gephardt didn't like Dean
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton aides already talking about VP options on: Today at 08:54:36 am
I think Heinrich or Julian Castro or Tim Kaine will be picked to be the VP candidate, Michael Bennett wouldn't be ideal, because he is running for reelection.

But Clinton doesn't need a heavyweight as a VP candidate anyways, she has Bill and he knows how to win, and it would just compliment her.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Jindal for Senate? on: Today at 08:49:42 am
After his SOTU response, when he said that we should cut social programs and not raise taxes, and his state was a model for fiscal responsibility, in the wake of Katrina aid, that put a skid on his presidential campaign.

I don't think he is should run for public office again, and the voters won't affirm that, but he will have to decide that.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Senate seats in play in 2016 on: January 25, 2015, 12:54:07 pm
The use of the filibuster was a poor method in which G O P gained power, by saying Reid got nothing done.

I do want Reid to lose, if we can net four seats, that my map illustrates, with Ohio, should Mike Coleman oust Portman. But, we can play the same game that was used last time with Kirk, Toomey, and Johnson who blocked immigration and equal pay.

Reid should lose tmbecause of CRONIBUS passing a Democratic chamber.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Who was the more conservative nominee and why? on: January 25, 2015, 12:47:36 pm
Romney was tea partied by Rick Perry on immigration, by hiring an illegal immigrant. And from there, he had to be tough on boarder control, and run away from his more centrist record as gov of Mass.


6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who do you think is going to be the 2016 Republican Nominee and why? on: January 25, 2015, 12:42:01 pm
I am hoping anbody but Jeb gets nominated. And the election would problably be a loss for the G O P. Because if anybody can compete with the hispanic vote, it is Jeb.

Make no mistake about it, it will be a hard fought campaign, and every last vote count, but that is the realization. So, I am rooting for Walker to be nominee.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Here's my prediction. on: January 25, 2015, 12:08:52 pm
2016 : I predict that Governor Scott Walker will win the election. Why ?

1. Obama Fatigue..... Democrat or Republican, you got to admit that Obama is damaged goods. So Probably Republicans will present their candidate as new and fresh and that leads me to the second one.

2. Hillary Clinton. Now I have a lot of respect for her. But her age and her connections to Obama kind of puts her in a disadvantage compared to Marco Rubio should he decide to run. And  don't forget about the Benghazi thing.

3. Governing Experience. One of the many reasons why we have dysfunction in Washington is because Obama with all due respect has no Governing record. Governor Walker on the other hand has a strong governing record.

4. The Republican Party will be much more united then in 2012. In 2012, Romney came out of it bruised and tattered thanks to all the crazy canidates out their. I think that the Tea Party base will warm up to Walker more.

What do you guys think ? And can anyone provide a map ? And who thinks should be Walker's running mate should he run ?


No, way will Scott Walker win the election over Hilary.  If Jeb has problems on common core, so will Scott Walker.  He has vastly had problems with the teacher's union in pension reform.  Union voters will be energized to defeat Scott Walker.  It will be jEB V hILLARY
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Which city is deader for the GOP: Chicago or San Francisco on: January 24, 2015, 09:41:22 am
Willie Brown and Galvin Newsome are much more liberal than Mayor Daley and Rahm Emanual, who allow the police to racial profile.

I was saying, conservatives, and middle class whites like the Mayors we have. Not too nuch liberals.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why all the Castro hype? on: January 24, 2015, 01:19:36 am
He was a favorite early on, but now he like the other contenders, whom are competeting.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why all the Castro hype? on: January 23, 2015, 07:17:37 pm
If she wasn't polling badly in CO, Castro might be an interesting pick, but she is doing mediocre in CO, and I think it is more likely Hickenlooper or Sherrod Brown or Tim Kaine would be a safer choice.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Senate seats in play in 2016 on: January 23, 2015, 06:46:39 pm
We already been over this, this race is tossup, the rating of Lean R, is misleading.  We have a 50/50 chance at this race.

And I will believe, not a PPP, but a Quinnepiac poll, when is due.



This is my dream map scenario in 2016
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why all the Castro hype? on: January 23, 2015, 06:44:41 pm
They clearly would play well in CO, NV, and FL, not TX, and there are latinos in ILLINOIS, too that will make it even more playable, the senate race, should we target Latinos.

It clearly is a risky choice, but with Jeb on the ticket, and his brother got 44% of the HISPANIC, vote, it clearly would be a risk worth taking.
the LATINOS in ILLINOIS ALREADY VOTE DEMOCRAT YOU MORON!

YOU KNOW NOTHING ABOUT POLITICS.

You don't need to scream at people.

And yes, the Castros are overrated.
Rauner picked up some crossover support in the GOV races, he has a Latina female as his LT GOV, who spoke fluent Spanish.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Senate seats in play in 2016 on: January 23, 2015, 05:38:12 pm
The 28% approval rating for Senator Toomey could conceivably be an outlier. But how much? If some other pollster comes up with even so much as "39%", then he is clearly in trouble.

He has a very right-wing voting record, and it will be used against him by any Democrat.

He is a proud supporter of the second Amendment, but the one bill that included anything with the gun lobby, his persuaviveness was clearly ineffective, and thus the Manchin-Toomey background check bill was defeated.

I think we can win this one, even if Sestak is the only one running.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sarah Palin: "Of course" interested in2016 White House bid on: January 23, 2015, 05:32:28 pm
This was Bill Krystal's gal, I think now he is in the Jeb camp, she should go away now.
15  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Saudi King Abdullah has died on: January 23, 2015, 04:10:41 pm
No remorse, Sauds, who came to Clinton's inauguration, are clearly public enemy number one, as they and the Taliban and the Pakistan, supported Bin Laden's wohoppism and 911.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Senate seats in play in 2016 on: January 23, 2015, 04:07:47 pm
Alaska - only if Murkowski retires or is ousted by a Tea Partier and/or Begich decides to give it another go

Colorado - GOP would be smart to stick to playing defense only, but if they go on offense then CO is the most likely seat they'd target after NV

IL - Will obviously be a very competitive state (it could become the race of the cycle, IMO), but I think that Kirk is a strong enough campaigner/incumbent that he'll be able to create a decent amount of Clinton/Kirk voters in the monied Chicago suburbs to eventually eek out a narrow victory

IA - I think Grassley will walk back his commitment to seeking another term and if he retired a candidate like Culver or Vilsack could lock this one up as a Democratic pickup

MO - The Missouri Democrats certainly have a shallow bench, but Roy Blunt is the epitome of GOP politician turned corporate sellout and that won't fly well in the Show-Me-State if Democrats can properly exploit it.  Look for Blunt to have primary problems as well.

NH - Will be competitive for obvious reasons, but I think that Democrats would be better to focus elsewhere as Ayotte's a pretty good fit for the state.  Hassan could make the race interesting but I doubt she goes down the rabbit-hole.

NV - This will probably be the race of the cycle.  Even against Sandoval I think Reid has a lot of fight left in him and will end-up winning.

NC - Look for Blunt to retire.  In that case I think the GOP taps Renee Ellmers with the Dems going with Stein or Foxx.  I don't think Hagan's interested in getting back to the Senate.  A Stein/Ellmers matchup would be very close, narrow advantage to Stein.

PA - Toomey's vulnerable, and it looks like Sestak will be the Democratic nominee.  I think Sestak comes up short again though.

WI - Johnson's a goner.  Ron Kind will head to the Senate in 2017

Democrats will pick up seats, but it won't be enough







I think you are underestimating Clinton's support in PA, she is crushing Jeb or Romney.  But, until we have a Quinnepiac University to confirm the PPP poll, I think we are gonna win PA

As far as OH, CO and NV, I think Mike Coleman can oust Portman, in case we lose Reid.

I hope Bennett, Coleman, Hassen, Duckworth, and Sestak and Kind win.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why all the Castro hype? on: January 23, 2015, 03:43:33 pm
They clearly would play well in CO, NV, and FL, not TX, and there are latinos in ILLINOIS, too that will make it even more playable, the senate race, should we target Latinos.

It clearly is a risky choice, but with Jeb on the ticket, and his brother got 44% of the HISPANIC, vote, it clearly would be a risk worth taking.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: OH-Sen: Cincinnati Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld likely running on: January 23, 2015, 03:40:10 pm
Mike Coleman or Ted Strickland would be our preferable choice, we need to target this race, to clearly put the G O P on defense should NV be a very tight battle.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Best campaign: Clinton 1992 Reagan 1980 or Obama 2008 on: January 23, 2015, 03:32:04 pm
Obama's 2008 was clearly the realignment that the Dems had been hoping for since Clinton 1992.  Where states like NV, CO, PA and NH have offset the loss of Ohio river valley and the bible belt which includes MO and WVA.

Except Clinton won all 4 of those states, and won 3 of those states twice. Obama hasn't really gained the Democrats anything, except Virginia which was already turning blue in 2004.

Gore and Kerry lost a very close races in NV and OH and cost them the election, clearly NV 4 or OH 20 would have put either of them in the W.H., since 2000, not 1992, Obama did give Democrats something.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Senate seats in play in 2016 on: January 23, 2015, 03:29:41 pm
NH,CO,NV, WI, PA and IL are the tipping point races, to name a few that will mimick the presidential election in 2016.

We have shifted to a new paradigm that no longer, like we saw in 2014, just because you have blue collar democrats in working class states, are they exempt from the realignment.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Best campaign: Clinton 1992 Reagan 1980 or Obama 2008 on: January 23, 2015, 03:26:14 pm
Obama's 2008 was clearly the realignment that the Dems had been hoping for since Clinton 1992.  Where states like NV, CO, PA and NH have offset the loss of Ohio river valley and the bible belt which includes MO and WVA.

Yeah, Clinton won LA, but it is pretty much a Catholic state and it is one of the last Bible belt states that shifted fully G O P in 2014.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: PA-PPP: Toomey leads on: January 21, 2015, 07:47:28 pm
When Quinnepiac calls this race and start polling we will see how Toomey fairs. For now, tossup, tilt G o P.
23  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Is Obama finished? on: January 21, 2015, 11:59:10 am
Obama as the communicator who can pass executive orders isn't done polically, but legislatively, yes he was done after the November 4th elections.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Senate seats in play in 2016 on: January 21, 2015, 11:51:19 am
Lean D NV,CO,IL
Pure tossup NH, PA, WI
Lean GOP OH, AK, NC and FL
Solid GOP AZ and IA
25  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How could Kerry have won Ohio? on: January 21, 2015, 11:44:10 am
Mark Warner who should have been the VP candidate instead of Edwards, would have prompted him to the natl stage, and could have given him a leg up on Obama in the 2008 election.

But, instead he stayed in Richmond and failed to gain natl media attention to mount a serious presidential campaign.

But, Warner, not Edwards would have been a better VP pick.  
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