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August 05, 2015, 03:30:10 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Predict the year that the GOP wins the White House again on: August 04, 2015, 08:34:44 pm
The polls are tightening as white working class has risen against her; bad news in states along appalachia corridor.

But yes, Jeb can beat her and stop her at 268.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Predict the year that the GOP wins the White House again on: August 04, 2015, 08:13:33 pm
Hopefully, 2020 or later, as the GOP must adapt to the fact that 272, CO, NV& Pa has replaced OH as bellweather of elections.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: If Clinton is a two-term president, who is on the Democratic bench in 2024? on: August 04, 2015, 08:11:03 pm
And of course Hillary's VP will be the presumptive nominee, so will the Dems even go to the bench?

Depends on who it is.  Is Tim Kaine exciting enough that he's going to clear the field?  I mean, in this scenario it will have been 16 years since there was a truly contested Democratic nomination fight (I'm not counting 2016 as being "contested", since Clinton alreay has it won), and surely there will be a number of potential candidates who are sick of biding their time and deferring to the frontrunner.

Kaine wont be picked; he voted for fast track.  I hope she picks Castro; to strengthen her appeal to Latinos as SW like CO, NV & NM is better than appalachia.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 04, 2015, 07:57:43 pm
I seriously have a hard time believing the 2016 results will be parallel to 2016.

Clinton clearly is tied with Jeb in QU polls.  I think it will be a closer election.  And polling such as QU proves it.

Jeb will probably win FL& NC.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac National: Close race between Clinton and Bush/Walker on: August 04, 2015, 03:57:28 pm
I see the discrepency between QU and other polls like Marist.

Marist assumes Trump will be nominee; which he wont, and QU uses Jeb. Which either he or Christie will be; but Clinton still leads within margin of error.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Bold Prediction on: August 04, 2015, 03:52:07 pm
Very well put, but Dems can win both Pa & FL. As Dems do well in house races in both states.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Put a Rating on the US Senate for 2016 - Summer 2015 on: August 04, 2015, 07:50:35 am
Lean R; as Sestak will overcome odds and beat Toomey; likewise Dems win FL, WI, IL&NV
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Gravis Marketing-SC Trump/Clinton Lead on: August 04, 2015, 12:12:12 am
This state was suppose to consolidate Jeb's support; and he was suppose to wrap up the nomination. I guess, just like Romney, he's gonna have to continue to fight on.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Marist: Hillary leads all 17 candidates by between 5-21 points on: August 03, 2015, 02:07:36 pm
As long as Trump keeps leading, Hilary will have poll numbers like this, as voters in GE will flock to her.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions on: August 03, 2015, 02:02:19 pm
Kirpatrick can upset McCain as well as Strickland def Portman.

Everyone thinks races will go by conventional wisdom, will be surprised on election day.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions on: August 03, 2015, 01:46:06 pm
tilt D
WI flip; IL flip & Co

Pure tossup
NV, FL, OH, Pa- Strickland & Sestak can win

Tilt R
AZ, IN & NC
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How is it feasible for Jeb to beat Hillary? on: August 03, 2015, 09:28:23 am
No, but Jeb & Hilary are competeting for the Latino vote. Which makes SW intriguing. Paul Ryan's stance on Medicare wasnt appealing, especially towards women, & women in states like WI rely on medicare or medicaid.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How is it feasible for Jeb to beat Hillary? on: August 03, 2015, 08:40:18 am
Hilary's path is similar to Jeb's path lock in 268 electors and win with NH; SW track. Now, the only one that can crack the Dem 268 electoral track is Susan Martinez, who would help Jeb win NM 5 electors.

Should Hilary pick Julian Castro; it is very hard to see Jeb winning.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2015 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: KY-SUSA: Conway +3 on: August 03, 2015, 07:37:30 am
Not necessarily; Conway has held leads in polls, Bevin has also lead in poll. There is no way Bevin or Conway will win by more than five.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread on: August 03, 2015, 07:34:15 am
Toomey isnt up 20; I assure you that. PPP has him only up by 4. The only pollster showing him ahead; substantially; is QU; the same pllster you just questioned about Portman. Has Strickland running away with senate race.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who does Obama endorse on: August 02, 2015, 06:58:35 pm
OMalley was suppose to challenge Hilary. But, biden can win, too.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Biden vs. Bush on: August 02, 2015, 06:40:49 pm
Biden 303 electors
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who does Obama endorse on: August 02, 2015, 05:40:35 pm
His endorsement will be gold for Biden in SC. Hopes he choses to do so, so IL can join with them.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Toomey vs. Sestak rematch on: August 02, 2015, 05:29:49 pm
It will go either way.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AZ-Sen: Salmon, Schweikert considering on: August 02, 2015, 05:29:06 pm
Well, it didnt take long for comments made by Trump to wear thin.

I wish Kirkpatrick well.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Biden Aide: Biden 90% In on: August 02, 2015, 05:26:29 pm
Biden or Clinton 4Prez.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bold predictions. on: August 02, 2015, 08:09:41 am
Polls have a 4-point Republican bias (due to trying to compensate for the 2014 results), and 80% of the members of this forum predict a Bush win, while Clinton actually wins by about the same margin as Obama '12. The average prediction on this site gets 6 senate races wrong: people predict that Democrats only pick up IL and WI, and lose NV. Democrats actually win IL, WI, NH, FL, PA, OH, and (due to McCain getting primaried) AZ.

How is Portman going to lose to Strickland?

As for Nevada, Heck has 49% of the vote against Masto's 35%. Even assuming the four-point bias is here already, Heck has been a much better campaigner than Masto. She's only won by depicting her opponent as more extreme than Sandoval(which was admittedly true). She wouldn't get many independent votes by pulling that against Heck.

There's a reason these are called bold predictions. Portman is favored, but it's unreasonable to call that race Safe R. Polls now are virtually meaningless, since neither Masto nor Heck have a lot of statewide recognition. I expect the Democratic candidate to win Nevada, so Heck will have to hope for a decent amount of crossover appeal. Unless Masto absolutely tanks, I can predict with 99.99% confidence that Heck will not win by double digits (though that's not a particularly bold prediciton, I'll admit.)

Larry Sabato crystal ball doesnt use formulas like Nate Silver and underrates Sestak's and Strickland's chances.

Pa and OH arent Lean GOP; Nate Silver at least give Dems hope in Pa and OH.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Inevitable Question: Best runningmate for Biden? on: August 02, 2015, 07:57:24 am
Heinrich will ensure a GOP senate; as Martinez will pick his successor, a GOPer. Castro is my choice.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Put a Rating on the US Senate for 2016 - Summer 2015 on: August 02, 2015, 07:52:09 am
Probably a weak Lean R. Remember Udall and Braley imploded later in the cycle, so it's certainly not unwinnable for the Dems especially in a good year.

As NV; FL, Pa and OH arent solidily R's and unwinnable for Dems; as PPP polls give dems hope.

Once primaries are over, fundraising abilities will greatly increase.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: 2016 Presidential Predictions (General) on: August 02, 2015, 05:57:58 am
Jeb was the wrong candidate, he was rusty and made the wrong call on Iraq, substaining Dubya's policy.

Barb, his mom was right, there were enough Bushes in WH. But, Latinos in CO, NV & NM arent going away. The sunbelt is growing more rapidly than Appalachia and has replaced that region as the bellweather of elections
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