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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Most vulnerable Senator up for reelection in 2018? on: June 30, 2015, 11:53:03 pm
Dems should be worried about Tester due to the SD and Mnt and WVa went last. Donmelly may survive. I do have Tester on the most vulnerable senator.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Ogden & Fry: Illinois Senate - Duckworth beating Kirk by 17 on: June 30, 2015, 11:48:11 pm
Dont worry, we have to wait for a PPP poll on this race.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: What happened to West Virginia and Virginia on: June 30, 2015, 11:44:43 pm
Both states had ties to confederacy. West Virginia was part of the Union, but rebel flags, like in KY and Mo do fly there

Mark Warner broke the GOP hold on Va, then came Kaine and Webb. Kerry clearly would have won Ohio had Warner, not Edwards been the VP pick.

4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) officially launches re-election campaign on: June 30, 2015, 11:22:03 pm
A lot of Dems like Hassan or CSP have thought twice about this race, because she is a popular moderate female.

If dems dont get Pappas to run either, its not a total loss. Dems do have Strickland and Murphy to get to control of senate.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Jeb had a different Last Name on: June 30, 2015, 11:14:47 pm
Romney and McCain had already lost. But, Dubya didnt help Jeb in office, without consent of voters; Jeb did.  The Dems despite it being a 3rd term should win it, either with 272 or duplicating Obama map.

Because the one that can beat the Dems isnt Walker, Trump or Christie, either. It is Kasich, who is the Huntsman of 2016.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions on: June 30, 2015, 11:05:25 pm
I'll update mine:

Pure toss-up:
-Florida

Tilt D:
-Nevada
-Wisconsin

Tilt R:
-New Hampshire
-Pennsylvania (I may move this to Lean R if Toomey is still polling strong in the coming months)

Lean D:
-Colorado
-Illinois

Lean R:
-Ohio (It Portman's doesn't poll better against Strickland in future polls, this will be moved to Tilt R or even Toss-up)

Likely D:
None

Likely R:
-Arizona (If McCain loses in the primary, this will be moved to Lean R or even Tilt R)
-Indiana
-Missouri
-North Carolina

To continue to say OH is L R and it isnt.

Strickland will win.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: Civatas Poll- McCrory Leads Cooper by 5 on: June 30, 2015, 09:18:34 pm
So much for Dems winning NC which wasnt really gonna happen anyways.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NH-Sen Ayotte leads Hassan 51-42 (Chamber of Commerce Poll) on: June 30, 2015, 05:45:12 pm
Chris Pappas is deciding too, but either one will be phenomenal Senators.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP (MI)- Clinton leads all candidates on: June 30, 2015, 05:13:25 pm
Good, MI, WI and Pa are safe bets for Clinton.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Demoracy Corps: Clinton leads Rubio and Walker on: June 30, 2015, 05:12:13 pm
Sorry Republicans, maybe you should just accept that Hillary is going to win in the greatest landslide since 1984.

Might as well just surrender now. She's inevitable. There's nothing you can do.

Fox 43-43 Clinton &Jeb tied
WSJ 47-43 Clinton narrowly leads Jeb

Yes, state by state polling looks better but RV is done by PPP vs LV screen, that Fox, Mason Dixon and Rasmussen does.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush: GOP needs to broaden the map (with Hispanics) on: June 30, 2015, 05:00:48 pm
2000 doesnt look all that different than 2012. Yes, Clinton is leading in OH and NV and Pa, but FL, which was the default state was the tipping pt state and CO&NV and Pa and IA may give Clinton the needed strength to win. Just like Latino rich NM and FL would have clinched presidency for Gore.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Best running mate for Christie? on: June 30, 2015, 12:21:23 pm
Hopefully, he is the nominee and he will pick a Latino as his VP.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Murphy In on: June 30, 2015, 11:55:59 am
lol giving up a safe house seat to run for a Senate race he's not going to win.

Same could be said of DeSantis.
He at least has a chance if he beats CLC, Murphy is probably one of the most over-hyped senate recruits this election cycle

Murphy isnt overrated at all; polls have clearly showed FL is a virtual tossup at Senate&prez levels☺
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Missouri 2016: Hillary Clinton down 3-4 points in internal polls on: June 30, 2015, 11:39:57 am
She is performing well in NV and OH, the states she needs to stay competetive.

I say she should contest AZ and NC.  It doesnt hurt, but she is winning☺
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush: GOP needs to broaden the map (with Hispanics) on: June 30, 2015, 07:00:00 am
Latinos and southern blacks are somewhat conservative. But, they're not tea party. And policies said in the GoP primary doesnt serve the Latino purpose of enterpreneurship.

Latinos just like blacks want to talk about business ownership and making it easier to get loans and less about corprate tax cuts.

As well as social issues that divides them on class.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NH-Sen Ayotte leads Hassan 51-42 (Chamber of Commerce Poll) on: June 30, 2015, 06:51:15 am
Doesnt really matter, Hassan stays as gov.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Missouri 2016: Hillary Clinton down 3-4 points in internal polls on: June 30, 2015, 06:43:06 am
In a close election NC or AZ wont go Dem anyway. But if Hilary exceeds 272 or 276 or 270 in which the tipping pt states of OH, Va and CO dictates, that Gov race which would be a pure tossup, will have an effect on the presidential race.

For now, defer to Gov race as being a tossup and presidential tilt GOP.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions on: June 30, 2015, 06:03:11 am
FL; Pa; OH pure tossups
Lean R NH, AZ and NC
Lean D NV, CO, IL and WI

3-5 net pickup for Dems
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 19 reactions that will bring a tear to your eye on: June 29, 2015, 03:49:31 pm
When Clinton wins the prez, and Senate nxt term. Loretta Lynch replaces Kennedy or Ginnsberg on SCOTUS.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: Bellweather Poll/IN-Gov Pence DOWN/TIED on: June 29, 2015, 03:28:59 pm
Given the state low taxes, Pence should be running ahead. But, Gregg isnt tax and spend Liberal either.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: Bellweather Poll/IN-Gov Pence DOWN/TIED on: June 29, 2015, 02:39:28 pm
John Gregg is clearly frontrunner over Ritz and Pence
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bold predictions. on: June 29, 2015, 02:26:57 pm
We will have our first female prez Clinton and first Latino VP Castro
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bold predictions. on: June 29, 2015, 08:35:18 am
Trump syphone off enough support from Jeb and Bernie; in open NH, and Christie becomes Clinton's opponent.

Christie who already said he will write off Co, loses 272-266, propelling Clinton in WH.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IL Senate Electo, - 2016 on: June 29, 2015, 08:03:21 am
Duckworth has a lead in the first poll, and that is good.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Most vulnerable Senator up for reelection in 2018? on: June 28, 2015, 07:39:59 pm
Missouri isnt trending right, it has stayed center. Dems won the seat in 2012. And the gov race is a pure tossup. I want McCaskill to succeed, and Hilary needs, McCaskill and can do without Tester or Donnelly, especially on obamacare.
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