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March 06, 2015, 07:09:34 pm
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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats/Independents only: MD-Sen Democratic primary on: Today at 12:27:39 pm
I'd gladly support Donna Edwards.

Van Hollen who was in charge of the DCCC, was a fundraiser and knows how to build up cash real fast. He will be an asset in fundraising to the Senate should he win the senate seat.


And can raise help Tester raise money for the other competetive senate races.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats/Independents only: MD-Sen Democratic primary on: Today at 12:05:25 pm
Chris van Hollen

Edwards needs to stay in House and stay with the Democratic black caucu
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: OH-Sen: Portman tied with Strickland; crushing Sittenfeld on: Today at 12:00:00 pm
Quinnepiac poll is the poll that really counts, but this early, showing Strickland well within stricking distance of Portman is positive.

FL, OH, PA, CO , WI and IL are the key to the senate.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Your dream Congressional Leadership on: March 05, 2015, 08:04:26 am
Senate Maj L Schumer
Senate Maj W Durbin
DSCC Chair Van Hollen and Asst Maj L #2
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: OH-Sen: Cincinnati Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld likely running on: March 04, 2015, 12:51:24 pm
This race isnt gonna make or break the senate for Dems anyways. In case Dems target of IL, WI, Pa, NH, CO and NV falls through, this will be consequential then. 

But, this race tilts GOP until there is more polling on this race.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: McCain VP Pick on: March 04, 2015, 12:45:49 pm
Oh well, then it had to be someone like a Tim Pawlenty since Romney had been ruled out.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WI-Sen: Feingold statement on stepping down from State Dept. on: March 04, 2015, 12:33:57 pm
Plse explain what part of my statement you disagree with.  I just stated the obvious Feingold seeks a rematch because he underestimated Johnson due to the fact he lead in most of polls before the defeat. Which he isnt gonna do this time.

Leave it be.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MD-Senate - Sources: Mikulski expected to retire on: March 04, 2015, 12:29:30 pm

Kathleen or Van Hollen or Sarbanes. This gets better and better each candidate that announcez.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DNC in Philly on: March 04, 2015, 12:24:05 pm
They know the path to 272, is the right path, and Pa, NV and CO is part of that strategy, as well as IA and NH. This just locks in Pa early on, so good choice.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How does Walker beat Hillary? on: March 04, 2015, 12:17:44 pm
Rarely does a party win the white house three terms in a row....simple as that.

Except for 1980-1992, 1932-1952, 1920-1932, 1896-1912, 1868-1884, and 1800-1828, totally. Except for those 104 years of our 224 years of presidential elections, it simply never happens.

Ill bet everyone of those instances when the party won a third term, they won a 2nd term by a large margin, not the third closest in history. I do agree that it is more likely to happen in 2016 than in the past because the GOP has the blame of Iraq and Economic meltdown

You would be incorrect. McKinley vs William Jennings Bryan was close, Hayes won controversially in 1876, and it did not effect the party victory 4 years later.

All of this is nonsense anyway. People don't vote based on the position of the stars. Democrats could lose in 2016, they could win 2016, we could go 48 years without another Republican President, we could go 100 years without another Democratic President.  We could go on a string of 20 consecutive one term Presidents each defeated by the next challenger on the opposite party.

Precedent doesn't determine what happens next. Public opinion polls suggest what happens next and they are suggesting Hillary.
Precedent does matter, even if there's no guarantee that patterns will continue.

As for opinion polls, two years ago, there were plenty of times when McCain was leading Obama. Hillary also led Obama in every national poll taken in 2007 (the one exception was a 2007 gallup poll that had a one point lead for Obama but that was if Clinton's husband's Vice President had been in the race, which didn't end up happening.)

Polls and precedent do provide significant information, but it's not a guaranteed indication of the outcome.

Most social issues are moving in a secular direction even if the south and Mnt W still hold sway on the G o P. Voter ID law in WI, was recently ruled unconstitution and union collective bargining.

The precedent of two consecutive terms and switch party control should be thrown out window. Even in 2014, there was no realignment. The states the GoP won in were ruby red. I expect the trend to continue as Dems will win over constitutiencies and win elections even further.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Did Hillary ask Mikulski to retire? on: March 04, 2015, 09:00:02 am
Well, Milkulski did have a hand in craftong CRONIBUS. and it may get pressure off Reid, since he pushed it through, too, with the Vegas casino kickbacks. You cant rule out anything but Van Hollen replacing Milkulski is better than a G o Per replacing Reid. Clinton need those casino investors in addition to Hollywood for election.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: O'Malley rules out Senate bid; keeps White House option on table on: March 04, 2015, 08:55:44 am
He has the same base of black voter support as Hilary does. If she decides not to run, he has a chance, but VP wont be offered, Hilary needs a younger Jim Webb type or a working class Dem at it will be Tom Perez, or Kaine or Hickenlooper
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Chicago mayoral election today (24 February 2015) on: March 04, 2015, 08:35:12 am
WOOW. Thanks for sharing

All I am saying is that after making it to runoff, it wasnt enough, he needed to do more to the voters to prove he deserves to be mayor. And Garcia hasnt and typical politics style, all major endorsements, once again are lining behind Emanuel.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: McCain VP Pick on: March 04, 2015, 07:12:17 am
Mel Martinez


Tim Pawlenty would have been ruled out due to Larry Craig MN fiasco and after that event they should have moved convention site.
15  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Happy Meteorological Spring 2015!! on: March 04, 2015, 06:48:55 am
The extra hour of daylight when is set for Sunday, when the sun starts to intensify on April 20th is where spring really begins. Right now, angel of sun is high, but no intensity.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How does Walker beat Hillary? on: March 04, 2015, 06:39:02 am
He has been moving to center to repair his polarizing image on the unconstitutional voter ID law, and on unions. But hard core liberals like Blacks will only remember his treatment of Burke who was part of teacher's union and voter ID law and be the one's not believing that moderate image. The only hope is seperate his appeal to minorities from his support from whites, similar to what he did in WI and hope for more Clinton foundation scandals, which is low.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WI-Sen: Feingold statement on stepping down from State Dept. on: March 04, 2015, 06:31:20 am
You cant count on Johnson for any bipartisanship, he is a lightening rod and said he's gomna stick to his guns. But, Feingold unestimated him. He's surely not gonna do that again.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Chicago mayoral election today (24 February 2015) on: March 04, 2015, 06:28:07 am
It will be a colossal upset if Garcia pulled it out. But, the chances are still low and the aldermanic races are the real test and he is doing just like the other politicans and doing things safe like Kirk, Rauner and Durbin.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MD-Senate - Sources: Mikulski expected to retire on: March 04, 2015, 02:56:31 am
OMalley is keeping his options open when he deferred to Van Hollen, should Clinton opt out of presidential run.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WI-Sen: Feingold statement on stepping down from State Dept. on: March 04, 2015, 02:20:28 am
Well, with a senate takeover by Dems, increasing, Feingold has decided to do the rematch against Johnson, like Sestak goes. Since the Homeland Security partial shutdown, GoP senate still contriutes to gridlock.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Approval of incumbent US Senators up for re-election on: March 04, 2015, 02:15:14 am
Kander has the better chance of bucking the partisan trend. Since, this wasnt discussed earlier, McCaskill won convincingly in 2012. Granted it was a Todd Akin moment, Missouri does still have alliegience to Dems. This is my upset special if the election night, Strickland, Duckworth, Feingold, Kander, Bennett and Sestak wins, while Reid loses narrowly. And Hickenlooper sits in the tied senate, as President.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MD-Senate - Sources: Mikulski expected to retire on: March 03, 2015, 07:18:59 pm
I really do hope Van Hollen doesn't run. I want him to be Speaker or Majority Leader. Not a junior Senator.

Same. Edwards, Sarbanes, or Mizeur would all be good.

It would have been nice, but 2014 changed things and the GoP cemented their majority for rest of decade. Time is now, where Dems have a clear shot at majority and he will have a future chairmanship of a subcommittee. And he may serve on Judicial committee to help select a future SCOTUS pick for Ginsberg.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Did Nader Help Congressional Democrats In 2000? on: March 03, 2015, 07:08:03 pm
Yeah, Greens helped Corzine def Franks, Dayton def Gramms and Stabenow def Abraham, which accounted for high base turnout in eaking theses liberals to victory.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NC-GOV: Cooper surging on: March 03, 2015, 06:10:53 pm
What Maxwell said.

Considering republicans will likely pick up the WH, I don't expect Cooper to win.

Likely pickup WH, I think Cooper will win, bur a GOP WH is far from assured.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MD-Senate - Sources: Mikulski expected to retire on: March 02, 2015, 03:30:45 pm
Yeah, now I believe he has no chance in Dem primary for Prez. He needs to take a hint and run for Senate. Let Webb and Bernie Sanders and Biden run against Hilary.
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