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November 27, 2014, 01:46:37 am
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 2000 without the Lewinsky scandal on: November 26, 2014, 11:12:45 am


2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Three strongest/weakest candidates on: November 26, 2014, 06:02:17 am
Establishment frontrunners now are Hillary and Walker

I would then list in the order shown above

Webb
Martin OMalley
Cuomo


Jeb and then Huckabee for G O P













3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Would Bill Daley have won Illinois? on: November 26, 2014, 05:58:06 am
He absolutely would have. Pat Quinn lost this for being Pat Quinn. A generic D (which Daley very much is) wins against Rauner.

Why was Quinn disliked so much? He has a proven progressive record. Medicare expansion, gay marriage, environemental protection, minimum wage, increased eduction funding and he even cut spending. And last but not least, he handled the situation after Blogo's impeachment pretty well.

I heard that Quinn had a difficult relationship with State Legislators (of his own party). Might that be a reason? Or the economy? California for example, another deep blue state, has economical difficulties as well, but Brown handily won.

We had better candidates to run, but the party bosses chose to stick with Quinn no matter what. And better to wait it out for 2018, it looks like Daley, Madigan, or Vallas wants the job.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Is Roy Blunt vulnerable? on: November 26, 2014, 05:54:13 am
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Rasmussen: Hillary ahead with Dems, GOP race "wide open" on: November 25, 2014, 05:53:18 pm
Walker, not Ryan or Jeb, is the clear winner in 2014, clearly he should be the party favorite to be the nominee. Fortunately, for us, he may knock out the stronger Jeb, and may be too extreme to win a general election.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Is Roy Blunt vulnerable? on: November 25, 2014, 05:47:24 pm
Its gonna come down to 3 or 4 senate races, since we are gonna need them for Senate control.

We are gonna need 1 more after Toomey, Kirk and Johnson.

Burr and Blunt and Portman are in a unique situation, they can win without a prez coattail,  but Ayotte or Rubio or if Begich and Miller enter the race in AK, Murkowski will have a race on her hands.

Right now, with Hillary heading onto the ticket, we have a good chance of picking off several republicans and we need to expand the map no matter if it is Johnson or Portman. We will see when it gets closer to election.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Obama sinks Hillary on: November 24, 2014, 11:01:17 am
Yeah, for now, that she is not speaking on her own behalf in prez campaign. She has plenty of time to distance herself. But, Lindsey Graham went out of his way to criticize the Benghazi report as being old news, and nothing new as far as Hillary. I'm not concerned.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: House approves Keystone Pipeline....onto the Senate on: November 24, 2014, 10:59:01 am
Begich, Udall and Landrieu would have benefitted from this bill being passed before the election, bad timing on Reid's part, it divided the Senate right down the middle and assisted in losing control. Way to go Reid.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Hillary in 2016- likelihood of a Democratic Congress on: November 24, 2014, 10:55:48 am
Early to tell, but I'd give it 60% for the Senate at least.  Zilch for the House until 2020 though at the earliest.

Presidential turnout and resentment of GOP Congress will probably sweep out Kirk (if it didn't matter how conservative Pryor was this mid-term in Arkansas, then it doesn't mater if Kirk supports same-sex marriage in Illinois),Johnson, and Toomey.


That's 3 right there, then add coattails tossing out Ayotte, or Murkowski(Miller and Begich run) or Rubio(should be an open seat) and you get up to 4.







We will see as far as 2018 goes, with term limited govs in MI, WI and FL and perhaps recall in IL with Rauner petition, only WVA seems to be gone, minimizing our losses as far as the Senate.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why is the rule of "8 years for each party" so strict? on: November 23, 2014, 01:44:13 pm
Because everyone knows that it takes six, not 4 yrs to get anything accomplished, that's why some countries like Russia has a six yr term rule.


However, we may be seeing the end to this, like it almost happened in 2000, where VP Gore won the popular vote, like Tony Blair's Labour party, Dems having Hilary may beat back the G O P and extend the term to 3 terms, having Obama done what he has done on his watch with the immigration issue.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary advisor: Bush-Portman ticket could doom Dems in 2016 on: November 23, 2014, 12:15:16 pm
Hilary is playing the expectations game so that she win have just enough to win on election night. But, if she believes she cant win, she wont run. But she is gonna run, enough said.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will somebody please kick out Reid & Pelosi ? on: November 23, 2014, 12:10:55 pm
Pelosi and Wasserman and Hillary are standard barriers of the Democratic party and future for women. Reid is a fundraiser in chief, once the 2016 elections are over, and hopefully Hillary is elected prez, future leaders will emerge within party ranks. Steny Hoyer probably wont make it Speaker.

But, a new majority is what the Democratic party wants and this is definitely party leaders definite go around.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Hillary in 2016- likelihood of a Democratic Congress on: November 23, 2014, 10:47:11 am
Hilary DSenate GOP House

Pickoff PA,IL,WI

need a second tier battleground

KS, AK, NH, GA, FL, or OH.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Who are the five worst Governors in America? on: November 23, 2014, 10:44:30 am
Scott
Quinn
Walker
LePage
Corbett
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Who are the ten best Senators in America? on: November 23, 2014, 10:43:08 am
Warren
Brown
Franken
McCaskill
Casey
Warner
Kaine
Udall of NM
Merkley
Sanders
16  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Gallup: Plurality of Americans skeptical about evolution on: November 23, 2014, 10:39:08 am
Literal evolution on the part of chimps, seems to be suspect of most people. But, dwarfism, ice age neatherthals that replaced the continental drift and extinction of the dinosaurs is documented by fossils.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: RIP Mayor Marion Barry on: November 23, 2014, 10:34:59 am
One of the last big city black mayors we have had in Washington, Dinkins and Marion Berry. But, did a great disservice to community organizers like Obama when he did what he did on drugs. RIP Marion Berry.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: LA: Rasmussen: Cassidy+15 on: November 23, 2014, 10:28:42 am
Katrina protected her against the G O P, but since that is over, Keystone, her opponents bill have overshadowed what goodwill her or Mitch coming out Orleans have left.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NY GOP Chairman Predicts De Blasio in 2016 on: November 23, 2014, 10:24:22 am
Not happening, Hillary is odds on favorite Democratic Standard Barrier.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races on: November 23, 2014, 02:54:53 am
Keystone and immigration would have definitely be best to past before the election in helping out Udall, Landrieu and Begich. Now, that the G O P majority has been installed, there is no incentive for either side to give at this time.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Would Bill Daley have won Illinois? on: November 23, 2014, 02:49:28 am
It was Madigan race to lose at this point, either Lisa or Vallas will be the nominee in 2018, and this will be like Pa of 2014, because it was all about Quinn this election. The next one will be for redistricting and we don't want to give that up to the G O P next time.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Kirk warns Duckworth to not run against him in 2016 on: November 21, 2014, 07:28:16 pm
Duckworth may very well decide to jump into this race, it is better to be in striking distance of the majority than sitting in the minority in a chamber where legislation is beholdened by a small group of tea party members. Better to pass legislation than not and that is why the candidacy of Duckworth or whoever decides to challenge Kirk is worth the challenge.

I think whoever runs will run a competitive race and a small advantage.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Any other Democrats anxious about Hillary? on: November 19, 2014, 05:21:51 am
Except for the interruptions of the midterms, we should be enthusiastic but we shouldn't expect to be given the W.H. back.  It is a thing of oligarchy and representative Democracy. If the public thinks that we are expected to keep the W.H., then they are smart enough to vote in the G O P. But, since we have put the Obama coalition together and we have a favorable congressional map, we are in good position to do what Tony Blair did, put together a 3 term Labor Party movement.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: House approves Keystone Pipeline....onto the Senate on: November 19, 2014, 05:10:45 am
Memorable quote, although wont have an effect on this runoff election, would be Boehner calling the prez of US stupid. It can be used as a fundraising mechanism in future 2015 gubernatorial elections. Bold move by Boehner, which emboldened Elizabeth Warren wing of Dem party.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats left in Romney States/Congressional Districts on: November 18, 2014, 07:15:01 pm
Quote
Jon Tester (MT)
Heidi Heitkamp (ND)
Claire McCaskill (MO)
Joe Donnelly (IN)
Joe Manchin (WV)

All of these guys are gonna be targeted. Especially Tester, Heitcamp. McCaskill will be just delicious.
Toomey
Johnson
Kirk
Ayotte
Or Murkowski if Begich and Miller runs will be our targets in 2016

WVA open and Tester are clearly the most vulnerable ones, but once we regain majority again, it will be hard to take back since by then demographics by 2020 will favor us.
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