Zogby was the most accurate pollster in 1996 and 2000. And Rasmussen had 2004 right and all of them are showing Cantwell ahead right now. Outside the margin of error.

And if you go by the pundits if the generic ballot test translates into election victory, the Dems will not lose seats.

Look, I can root for my candidate and you can root for yours and we will see who is right on elections day.

Right now the Bush poll numbers in the state at 36% doesn't translate into a republican victory at this time.

Yea, you say that Republican registraints and Democratic registraints aren't public yet but as a whole, because WA is a Democratic state, there are alot more Democratic registraints than republican registraints.

As far as LV/RV, you get a different result if you use either one. Usually, Dems usually do better on likely voters than do registered voters. It all depends on turnout and I think that because Wa is a Democratic state and it is unfavorable to Bush you will get Cantwell winning. This race is going to be close.

As for the presidential level, the same people that voted for Kerry are not going to drop their support and vote for McGavick. Anyway Dems outnumber Republicans in the state so with party registration in the state I give the edge to Cantwell.

And Strategic Vision usually go by the more conservative sample and Zogby go by the more liberal sample. It all depends on where you poll in the state. And just like Zogby was off Strategic Vision had its bad points as well.

DeWine is a weak incumbant and will limp to election. He will not be a strong candidate going into election day.

New Poll: Michigan Governor by Survey USA on 2006-08-07

Summary: D: 42%, R: 50%, I: 6% U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

I think barring something bad happening, I think this is Brown's to lose.

I am not ignoring the margin of error. I said that the Dems usually pick up the support of the winning presidential candidate in the state. And Cantwell's approval ratings aren't bad enough to lose at this time. Right now this race leans Democratic, but yes Cantwell is vulnerable. But until her approval ratings go down I am not going to predict that she is losing.

And right now Bush is at record disapproval rating in Wa, and it makes me think twice about McGavick winning. She has polled by some polls not all the polls inside the margin of error. She can lose but not at this time she will lose. She polled outside the margin of error in Rasmussen and he got every race right in 2004.

And also, Zogby has had Maria Cantwell outside the margin of error for a long time, that's why I don't think McGavick will win. That's why I think Cantwell will win.  And there are more registered Dems in WA that's why I think Cantwell will win. And Bush polling in Wa is at 36% that's why I think Cantwell will win. All of those factors are going for Cantwell.

And like I said Elway was off because you have to factor in LV/RV and WA is hard to predict like most battleground states. And this is a senate race, it is easier to predict than a governors race. And Bush carried Rossi alot more because the republican turnout was higher than average.

New Poll: Ohio Governor by Survey USA on 2006-08-07

Summary: D: 57%, R: 35%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

New Poll: Ohio Senator by Survey USA on 2006-08-07

Summary: D: 49%, R: 41%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

I think that Baxley is going down. I don't think she is going to win.

New Poll: Vermont Senator by Rasmussen on 2006-08-03

Summary: D: 0%, R: 34%, I: 62% U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

New Poll: Vermont Governor by Rasmussen on 2006-08-03

Summary: D: 37%, R: 55%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

New Poll: Alabama Governor by Rasmussen on 2006-08-02

Summary: D: 31%, R: 55%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Right, I said that there must be a wave for the republicans to lose TN, AZ, or VA at this point and probably MO.

This state was the top target for Dems to takeover, now it looks doubtful for them. The Dems haven't won a governor's mansion in MN since I don't know when and I don't see them winning it now. The Dems had a better candidate in Moe in 2002 and they still lost.

Yes, I do understand how margin of error works. I am saying that his samples are too small to get good reading on the race. That's why he isn't reliable. Maria Cantwell will have no problem in this race, she will win by the same margin as John Kerry got electied. The republicans will not get above 46% in the state. Most Dems pick up the support of the previous presidential candidate does. And I don't see her losing it in this political climate.

This state isn't even on the Republicans top targeted list, MN and NJ is. And Cantwell is the right person to win this race. And her approval ratings aren't bad enough to lose at this time. She has good approval ratings. Not like DeWine or Santorum or Conrad Burns.

I guess what I am saying is that until McGavick takes the lead, like Kean has done in the Quinnipiac poll, I don't think he will win. In order to win you should at least take the lead at least some part of the campaign. And until he has done so, I am not going to consider him able to win this race. And he hasn't done so in none of the polls.

His sample of 400 people isn't large enough to get a very accurate reading. That's why most people don't take hime seriously.

It all depends on the way you poll, registered voters or likely voters as well. And depending on the sample as well.

I just said that WA is a very liberal state and just like it is hard for Dems to win TN and MO, it is hard for Republicans to take away NJ or WA. That is all I am saying. And by the way, I have contradicted myself, because the political climate has changed due to the war in Israel. Wars always favor Republicans, and the Dems would of faired much better had this war not taken place.

They aren't dishonest. They are well thought out like most people on this site. How can my predictions be intellecually be dishonest and most pundits say the same thing that the Dems will gain seats but don't have control of the Senate yet. That isn't dishonest to me.

I am not calling any races, I am predicting trends. You think I am calling races I am not.

I think the Dems will net gain 4 seats, if there isn't a wave. If there is a wave they will win 6. But for now RI, PA, MT, and OH are the ones for the taking only.

I said that the trends right now shows that the GOP are going to lose seats. But there is no wave yet to sweep them out of office. I feel that I can predict like everyone on this site that the Dems will be able to win seats.

Make up Dems win: PA, MT, OH, and RI for Senate
Make up House GOP: 220R-215D
Govs:     29D-21R

The Dems will win 4-5 seats. They aren't going to pick up the senate unless there is more of a wind at their back.  Due to the cultural conserv lean of MO and TN, they have a less than 50% chance of picking up the senate. Unless AZ swing the Dems way, and that is more unlikely than TN.

Johnson 53% McKinney 40%

http://www.11alive.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=83019

New Poll: Nevada Governor by Rasmussen on 2006-07-31

Summary: D: 37%, R: 46%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

This isn't a race anymore, a new Consumer Logic poll shows Ford trailing by a wopping 15 pt lead.  And Corker is above 50%. As for the moderate appeal, he has the same crossover appeal that Frist enjoys in the suburbs. This takes away the blue dog image Ford has been trying to portray. Maybe it will be a race come Oct but right now it isn't.

He is no more than a conservative than Lamar Alexander is a conservative. If he wasn't a conserv do you believe he won't for the Bush tax cuts and judicial nominees. If he wasn't a conservative he would not vote for those items. I believe he would.