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1  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Do Prisons Without Air-Conditioning Constitute 'Cruel and Unusual Punishment'? on: August 29, 2016, 11:40:31 am
Do Prisons Without Air-Conditioning Constitute 'Cruel and Unusual Punishment'?

Cruel, but not unusual.  I just looked it up.  According to the Florida department of correction website, most in Florida are not climate-controlled.  Texas and Louisiana make the same claim.  Virginia claims that about half its prisons have air conditioners.  It seems to be the norm in the US that prisons do not have cooling systems.  Moreover, many do not have adequate heating systems.

There are much crueler aspects of the US prison system than a lack of temperature control, but I do agree that we should not freeze them or cook them to death.  Cooling and heating systems are expensive, but if we're going to cage such a huge chunk of our population--the US has about 4% of the world's people and about 22% of the world's prisoners--then we should be willing to bear the costs of doing so in a humane manner.  The last three weeks here have been brutal, and I bet it's worse on the Gulf Coast.  We won't turn criminals into citizens by treating them rudely.



2  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: What happened to the China GDP talk of 6-8 years ago? on: August 28, 2016, 06:47:03 pm
I remember around 2008/2010 it seemed to be a consensus among many people that the Chinese economy would be the largest in the world very, very soon.  I think some estimates were even saying by 2016.  I just looked it up today and this is where it stands:

1     United States    18,558,130  (Thanks Obama!)
2     China            11,383,030


The gap hasn't changed much in the past couple of years, and they definitely won't catch us by 2020 at this rate.  Was all that talk overblown?  Or is China still on track to be the worlds largest economy?  What do you guys think.

(I know if you go by current growth rates, they will be the largest eventually.  I'm more asking if it's sustainable)

If you asked the question, "Which is the richest nation?" once every 500 years starting, say, 4000 years ago, the answer to the question would have been "China" every time except the last two times.  In the early 1500s the answer was probably Spain and in the early 2000s the answer was the United States.  Of course China will surpass the US.

But they'll do it on their own terms.  I remember reading 20 years ago that in 20 years China's GDP would surpass that of the US and I thought then it was a little far-fetched.  Even ten years ago I said as much on this forum.  I don't agree that it's "fearmongering" but rather mediocre investment advice.  I won't call it bad investment advice.  If you find a solid chinese firm that sells good stuff then by all means invest, but the huge growth rate that China experienced after they were honored with the "most favored nation" sobriquet by the Clinton administration in the 90s wasn't sustainable.  They don't have the messiness of democracy, so that gives them an edge, but their internal demand is nearly saturated.  

The prediction that China will again be the richest nation on earth is a safe one.  No one goes out on a limb when he makes that prediction.  The prediction that it'll become so in a certain year is useless.  No one knows when that will happen, and frankly it doesn't matter.  If you see a good opportunity and want to gamble on it, then gamble.  There's no guarantee that your investment will pay off, but you can't make megamoney by playing it safe.
3  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Good news! on: August 27, 2016, 07:43:18 pm
I'll believe it when I see it.

A couple of months ago, I was sitting in the waiting room at my son's dentist office, reading a book--1491 it was, by Charles Mann--which to me seems a perfectly normal thing to do when you're in a waiting room at a dentist's office, and when I looked up I noticed that all the other people in the room--there were four of them--were fingering and fondling their sleek, flat, black dildos.  The book I held in my hand represented the only printed word being read, despite the huge piles of magazines and paperbacks available on the large office cocktail table in the middle of the room.  At the time, Pokemon Go didn't yet exist.  I imagine that the situation would be even worse today.  At least they were sitting in their chairs fingering their fingertoys.  If I were sitting in the same office today, I imagine that they'd be swatting the air and jumping up in unison.

Beet, you rarely seem upbeat about anything.  Usually you're about as sour a poster as anyone could create, but I'd be surprised if your newfound joy is substantiated.  Books seem to be a thing for me and my colleagues to discuss over scotch in the wee hours of the morning.  I doubt anyone born today will even hold a book, well not to read it at least.  Maybe as a curio from Grandpa's dusty basement shelves, they'll show it off to their classmates.  Or use them to swat flies or stand the doors open on windy days.  Better yet, if Donald Trump is elected, a thing to burn, especially if they extol the virtues of the immigrant nation.

4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Pennsylvania on: August 23, 2016, 10:13:12 pm
I received a heavy, colored paper trifold piece in the mail today from Clinton.  Something about jobs and the refinancing of students loans for those in debt.  Not very exciting.   

Nothing from Trump lately.  Latest poll I saw was 48-37 Clinton from NBC/WSJ/Marist.  This is about the same lead as Clinton had over Trump before the primaries.  My guess is that Trump has pulled out.  No one even discusses this race in the jacuzzi at the club any more.  Thankfully.

I have completely stopped answering the phone if I don't recognize the number.  Just today I had two phone calls from area codes I've never seen before.


5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump supports racial profiling on: August 18, 2016, 06:15:30 pm
Good for him.  I don't much care for Trump, and I know I won't vote for him, but of course they're profiling people.  Racially, ethnically, religiously, by economic status.  The only questions you should have about profiling are:  "Is it effective?" and "Is it legal?"

I think that the answer to both is yes.

Don't get me wrong.  I generally don't have a warm fuzzy feeling about cops.  They're thugs and bullies.  They have murdered people and grand juries don't have the balls to indict.  I'm glad that no one in my family is a cop and that I don't know any personally.  FBI and CIA are even worse.  It's dirty work, but someone has to do it.  Still, putting together patterns in a logical fashion, although morally unfashionable right now, makes sense to me.  If I were a cop, I'd use every statistical model available, and if a model told me that a purple guy with green testicles is more likely to steal doughnuts than anyone else, I'd focus on that.  Yes, I know that being purple and having green testicles has nothing to do with stealing or doughnuts physically, but if the statistics bear that out, then it makes sense to make that part of the investigation.  Don't let moral fashion get in the way of an investigation.

Racial profiling support is one of the few intelligent positions Trump takes.  I don't think he came up with that all by himself, by the way.  He has advisors who have told him that it makes sense.  My suspicion is that most politicians share that conclusion, and that most politicians also haven't put much thought into it, but fortunately our bloated government is so big and full of experts that they don't really have to think for themselves.  They only need to use our tax dollars to pay others to think for them.  That of course is a problem, but don't blame it on Trump.  They're all doing it.  Some kneejerk against "racial profiling" because their advisors have told them that focus groups respond negatively to it.  Some are for it because their advisors have told them that it sells in their districts.  None of that is a good thing.  It'd be nice to have a president who thinks for himself, but don't hold your breath because neither of the major candidates is planning on doing that.

There are plenty of reasons to dislike Trump.  This is not one of them.

6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Would Lloyd Bentsen Be a Republican Today? on: August 17, 2016, 07:12:20 pm
If Lloyd Bentsen was just getting into politics today, with the exact same views, would he be a Republican?

I met Lloyd Bentsen, back in 1988.  I shook his hand--he had the softest hands I had ever felt in my life--and I had lunch with him and an actor named Rob Lowe, who was very popular at the time.  Rob Lowe was clearly high on cocaine, but then so was I so I shouldn't complain.  They were campaigning for Michael Dukakis and in the evening I introduced him at a student rally to about 500 students.  Very exciting, it was.  Bentsen and Lowe both talked quite a bit about middle class values and opposition to the trickle-down policy that was called "reaganomics" at that time.

I think Lloyd Bentsen was tired already by 1988, and certainly by 1993 when he volunteered to resign as T-man-in-chief after the David Koresh cult fiasco, which not his fault.  He may not have had a genuine interest in serving as Dukakis' VP in 1988--none of us expected Bush to lose--but he did not disagree with his party's platform at that time, and I don't think he would generally disagree with it now.  He was in opposition to Bush's agenda, or so he told us, and I assume that he disagreed with Bush's son in later years.  I do not know what he might make of The Donald.  Not much, probably.  

Just before the vote to authorize the use of force against Iraq in 1991, I wrote him a letter asking him to oppose it.  He wrote me back and said that he did oppose it.  Unlike the 2003 operation in Iraq, the 1991 operation was highly controversial.  It passed in the senate, but it passed by 52-48, so it wasn't so lopsided as it was in 2003.  Bentsen was one of those who opposed the operation.  (FWIW, I wrote to Dianne Feinstein in 2003 about that second Iraq war, but unlike Bentsen in 1988, she was perfectly okay with the Iraq invasion.  At least she wrote me back, which is more than I can say for my other senator at the time, Barbara Boxer, who did vote the way I would have, but whose discourtesy of ignoring my letter really put me off.  To this day I respect Feinstein more than Boxer, for that reason.) 

Anyway, I voted no in this poll.  I don't have much respect for the Democrats or the Republicans, but I do respect some of the members of those parties, and Bentsen genuinely struck me as fairly ideologically consistent.  He was a Democrat in 1988.  I don't know what he'd be now, but my suspicion is that an old man is already pretty set in his ways, so the values he held in 1988 would likely be the values he would hold today, so it's really hard to imagine him being a Republican now.

7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump wants an ideological test for immigrants on: August 17, 2016, 08:47:53 am
You missed my point

perhaps.  I have a cognac headache this morning.  I'll read over your long post again when my neurons are better functioning. 

I've seen mennonites in Belize and Guatemala.  Never ran into them in Mexico.  Interesting.

also, I concede:  pogromshchik was analogy that I was looking for, not cossacks.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump wants an ideological test for immigrants on: August 16, 2016, 09:55:27 pm
you, gentiles, routinely have sex with goats?

I wish.  It's been so long I forgot what a tender young goat feels like.  

And you yids buy up all our turkeys so that only leaves deers.  Unfortunately they run too fast and their assholes are too high anyway.  Tongue

Seriously, though, the whole ideological supremacy thing is a bit much.  Too French.  Sure, Muslims and Jews and Hindus promise their two-year-old daughters in marriage.  So what?  Sure, all goyyim have sex with goats.  So what?  It's what makes us great, and Making America Great Again is the whole point.  

I didn't read the details of the Trump ideological plan, but I do know that I cringed when I read a few years ago that certain governments in the European Union (and California!) were forbidding the wearing of islamic headwear or crucifixes in public schools.  It's political correctness run amok.  Not that we need additional reasons not to support Trump, but the idea of an ideological test does deserve its own discussion apart from the Trump candidacy.  I'm against it.  There will be communists, fascists, freaks, satanists, Jews, Muslims, Hindus, people who attend Dude Fest, Merkin-wearing Burning Man attendees, feminists, masculinists, vegans.  Diversity is not a bad thing.  Can you hold a job?  That's a legitimate question.  Do you have any skills other than bartending?  That's legit as well.  Those questions deal with economics, and the economic burden placed upon the larger society.  The black caftan-wearing yids in Williamsburg, however weird they may seem to us goatfucking goyyim, do create microeconomies and generally support themselves.  The poles understood this eight hundred years ago when they encouraged immigration.  I think you're taking the thread a little off course with a discussion of the bizarre ethnoreligious customs of certain groups.  Who cares about that?  Sure, you people have some weird customs, but if you can add value to the society and don't become a burden to the taxpayers, then I don't care if you shave your head and wear a wig and refuse to let me have carnal knowledge with your goat.  Similarly, sharia law doesn't bother me as long as the folks in a ten square block of detroit are happy with it, and you're right about it not being any more foreign than the bigoted and insular acculturation that occurs in Williamsburg, or in the many Mormon communities of the Southwest, for that matter.  

You need to put all that thousand-year-old hatred of the Eastern European aristocracy aside.  This is about economics.  There is enough to dislike about Trump without likening him to the cossacks.  They at least had reason to loathe and fear those Jews who worked for the nobility.  Trump and his supporters have no such justification for indignation.  They are just responding to general anxiety.

Hell, we have people here who dress like it's 1847.  I don't know why.  They drive horses pulling black buggies.  If you haven't been to southeastern Pennsylvania it'll startle you.  There are many cults here.  There are at least 14 flavors of mennonites and at least four flavors of Amish.  There are quakers as well (I've attended a function at one of their meeting halls).  WE also have a handfull of black skullcap-wearing Jews with sidecurls and shaved heads who put their women and children in black dresses and headscarves even on days like today, when it's ninety-five degrees.  None of my business, and none of Donald Trump's.  To me, they all dress alike, although I suspect that to each other they have subtle differences that are obvious.  Yes, I'll admit that the Amish, the Hassids, the ultra-Orthodox Jews, some Muslims and Hindus, and some Christians seem to suppress their women and children in a way that seems deeply opposed to the culturally fashionable moralism that is prevalent in the US and Western Europe, and I don't know why they do all that, but I really don't care.  They pay taxes and they stay out of trouble.  That's really the only ideological test we need.  The court case you cite is correct.  They are not always right, but they were in that case.  Such ideological tests are not justified, despite our own prejudices.




9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump wants an ideological test for immigrants on: August 16, 2016, 08:31:05 pm
Are you sure you still want to let my fellow tribesmen into the US?

I'm not.  You people are freaks.
10  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Which do you prefer, subway or streetcar? on: August 16, 2016, 01:33:30 pm
The ride is the same either way.

It most certainly is not.

If I like the green line (which I rode for many years as a grad student) how should I vote?

If you like the green line, then you should vote to see a psychiatrist.

I voted Subway.  I don't care for the subways that surface to surface trolleys either (e.g., The Green Line, which I rode more times than I care to remember as well).  The Red Line is faster and more comfortable, and more like a real subway.
11  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Do you support heterosexual marriage? on: August 16, 2016, 10:00:59 am
Do you support heterosexual marriage?

Some of them I support.  Some of them I deeply oppose.  Generally I just say congrats and move quietly away, because trying to talk them out of it just creates tension.  I think most people insist on learning things the hard way.

12  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Another "religious liberty" wedding cake conundrum on: August 15, 2016, 11:03:29 am
Okay, but what if a gay pastry enthusiast runs the "Down With Str8s Bake Shop" and refuses to serve a straight couple that wants him to make them a wedding cake? Then what?

same answer.   No baker should be forced to bake anything for anyone.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: No Electoral Majority on: August 14, 2016, 05:59:45 pm
Who would the House vote for to become president?

My guess is that each state will go with their majority delegations.  If that is the case, Clinton wins about 17 and Trump wins about 33.

Trump is a wildcard, though.  I'm not sure that all 33 states with a majority GOP delegation will support him, but I don't think he'll lose more than 7 of them.


14  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Another "religious liberty" wedding cake conundrum on: August 14, 2016, 08:12:00 am
Is the baker required to provide service in either of these situations? Both?

I don't think any baker should be forced to provide service to anyone as a matter of civil law.

But you say that this is a Christian baker.  What kind of Christian would refuse a customer's business just because the customer is gay?  The central tenets of Christianity are about mercy and love (see for example Matthew chapter 22, verses starting at 36).  If the baker in question is an observant Christian, he or she would probably be happy to bake the cake, so the question is a paradox.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Pennsylvania on: August 13, 2016, 09:58:59 pm
I just saw The Children Are Watching on History Channel.  Powerful Clinton ad.  The most memorable aspect is that The Donald gave all this to her on a sturdy porcelain platter with silver trim.  I think they're starting the bombardment in the "swing states" by now.  Probably much more to come.

Check it out:  Role Models
16  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: August 2016 Fremont Senate Voting Booth on: August 12, 2016, 10:26:06 am
1.  Cris
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is the U.S. ready for the first woman president? on: August 11, 2016, 06:04:20 pm
I personally know a woman who was in the first class admitted to an Ivy League school. 

Harvard didn't admit Catholics or Jews till the very early 20th Century, but you won't find that on their website.  Women were admitted even, in 1920.  That was less than a hundred years ago, but such things change fast.  I do think that people lie to pollsters--The Vorlon constantly reminds us of that anyway--but I also think that the fact of a woman doesn't make a difference to most voters.  It takes time to percolate.  As you point out, it hasn't been so very long since women were admitted to the aristocratic circles which, after a few generations, breed to sort of influence and assure the right circles that get people pushed into positions in which they might be mentioned for candidacy. 

That long acculturalization is part of why no woman has been elected.  I'm not sure that means society wasn't ready for a female commander at least half a century ago.  I use the word commander because I think that's the sticking point, if there is one.  Females have been in executive positions in the private sector as well as in state governments for a very long time, but the Presidency has a special function of commanding a military as well.  The fact that there's a selective service thread fairly alive at the moment, and that no one has yet mentioned that only males are mandated to register, suggest that there's a hesitancy in the military service aspect when it comes to treatment of women.  I don't think Clinton is weak in the area of being willing to march US troops into harms way--if anything, I think she is too power-projectionist. Society will automatically think that any particular woman would make a good president even if it has no qualms with females in command generally, and if a woman running for president is not elected, it will not necessarily mean that society is not ready for a woman.
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: If you faced being drafted on: August 11, 2016, 05:32:25 pm
Most government jobs require you to be registered.

Indeed, as well as the free money for university, which still exists although they're tighter now.  My brother, who died at the relatively young age of 52 about 11 months ago, was an absolute objector and he never registered for selective service either.  He was the only person I knew well who bragged about not being registered, although I suspect such attitudes are more common nowadays.  He and I discussed that many times when we were younger.  "I don't give a flying fuck whether I can get free government money.  It's not their money anyway--it's ours--and I don't see why I should have to promise to kill people or defend bad policy just to get a bit of it back."  He was the prototypical libertarian.  Owned many guns, liked to hunt and camp, stayed high, used whatever drugs were available to him, and showed great hostility toward US government policy generally, both domestic and foreign.  He also never voted, which I assume is a very libertarian tendency and probably explains why they can't break double digits, even when the main choices are Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.  
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is the U.S. ready for the first woman president? on: August 11, 2016, 01:01:01 pm
Is the U.S. ready for the first woman president?

I think it is ready and has been ready for some time, not unlike France.  Also, not unlike France, the only women to offer themselves have been unfortunate and dreadful choices.  

Neither your country nor mine really have deep, societal qualms with women in leadership roles, despite what the talking heads liked to spew in their analyses after Clinton lost the nomination to Obama in 2008 and after Royal lost the French presidential election of 2007.  Polls suggest that a majority of the US public has been "ready" for a woman president since the mid-50s (monotonic increase from about 33% yes in 1937 to about 92% today, crossing over the 50% in around 1955.)  A similar trend is evident in France, with the "yes" voters in the majority in opinion surveys there since about 1968.  Moreover, Wyoming and Texas were the first two states to elect female governors, and both did so in the year 1924.  Over the past 92 years, 22 other states have elected one or more female governors.  Thus, nearly half of the states have had female governors.

The next president of the United States will likely be a female; hopefully her presidency will not be so marked by corruption and incompetence that it will put the voters off all women candidates, many of whom would become effective managers of the state.  I do think that most voters will not hold Clinton's presidency against all women, should her leadership prove faltering or deceitful, although only time will tell.

20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: If you faced being drafted on: August 11, 2016, 12:43:40 pm
9 months of national civil service in a nursing home

good god, that is deeply depressing.  As bad as being ordered to sneak around, blow stuff up, and kill people sounds to me, your sentence sounds worse.  

I remember having to do the selective service registration within a month or so of my 18th birthday, which was in 1985.  (As far as I know, that is still required.)  I wasn't a big fan of it then, but I complied because I wanted to enjoy certain rights and privileges that were advertised as contingent upon selective service registration.  I do remember not being sure what I'd do if a war actually came and I was actually conscripted by the military.  There was no war for my generation so it never came up.  If I were born 20 years later or 20 years earlier than I was, I'm sure I'd have a much stronger opinion of the selective service and of conscription.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Pennsylvania on: August 11, 2016, 10:43:07 am
Another one today!  

Same script.  "Good afternoon sir.  Are you a registered voter?  How likely are you to vote...?  If the election were held today, and the candidates were former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Businessman Donald Trump, for whom would you vote?  Well, okay, but if you had to pick one which one would you pick?  Still neither?  Okay, could you tell which statement most accurately describes your feelings toward...?"

I wish there was one area code for all pollsters, and all polling companies were required to have it and no one else would be allowed to have it, so we could just look at the number and immediately know not to answer it.  ARRRRGH.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How many yardsigns and bumperstickers are you all seeing where you live? on: August 11, 2016, 07:58:28 am
It seems as though the most oft-mentioned name is neither of the two major candidates.

Bernie

plenty of Bernie

It's all Bernie stuff

There are still a lot of Bernie signs here

Bernie

I see a ton of Bernie stickers, and one Gary Johnson sign, but that's all.

Bernie.

Lots of Bernie stuff, even in Spokane.

lot of Bernie stickers

I see cars with Bernie bumper stickers

and that's just page 1 of this thread...

Where I work I saw more Bernie stickers and Bernie signs than anything else as well, even well after the primary they remained, but I haven't been to Millersville in a few weeks.  I'll probably go to my office a few days next week to work on a manuscript, since it's difficult to focus at home.  The building will be empty and the streets will resemble a ghost town for a couple more weeks, but I'll try to remember to look around to see if the signs and stickers suggest that people are still feeling the Bern.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trumpís Red-State Problem on: August 10, 2016, 06:03:03 pm
It's a mixture of metaphorical language use and forgotten or embedded cultural references. There's quite a number of them in all languages and sometimes, like cats in English, they follow particular themes. It's certainly fascinating how we create and interpret these so casually as native speakers.

It's interesting.  I've looked up the etymology of "raining cats and dogs" as well those for the morbid ones such as "saved by the bell", "dead ringer", and "graveyard shift."

I just have never or heard anyone reference a dead cat bouncing, although I have heard that "you can't swing a dead cat without hitting" something or other.

24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trumpís Red-State Problem on: August 10, 2016, 05:49:56 pm
dead cat bounce

weird turn of phrase.

I had to look that one up.  Funny how we treat cats in our language.  For example "there's more than one way to skin a cat."  Who skins cats?  "Let the cat out of the bag."  Who bags cats?  Skin him, bag him, drop him, and see if he bounces.  Seems a little sadistic even to me, and I don't care for cats. 

Well, we're not in Kansas anymore Toto.  Auntie Em might not trust Hillary Clinton, but she sure as hell isn't impressed with Donald Trump.  Uncle Henry is probably a Johnson voter.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How many yardsigns and bumperstickers are you all seeing where you live? on: August 10, 2016, 05:38:47 pm
Okay, papi, I did see another sign today.  Well, it wasn't a proper yardsign, and it wasn't in a yard but rather in the little grassy berm between the sidewalk and the street, but it contain some political message.  It was one of those cautionary signs warning of pedestrians, but it had been vandalized apparently by a Clinton antagonist, and then re-made by a Trump antagonist.  It looked something like this*:



*not an actual photograph but an image created by angus in Microsoft Paint.

I don't normally approve of vandalism in my neighborhood, and I don't approve of either party's graffito on this sign, but the sign did make me think of this thread.  It also reminded me that this year, much like in 2000 but unlike 2008, no one is really voting for a candidate, but rather against one.
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