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1  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Political Machine Results on: December 16, 2014, 10:42:18 pm
Opinion Poll(Porter+4)
Jimmy Carter/John Edwards 45%
Garrison Porter/Mitt Romney 49%
Undecided 6%
We'll see if they call it before midnight.
7:00 PM EST
Carter: 0        Porter: 16        270 to win
8:00 PM EST
Carter: 5        Porter: 84        270 to win
9:00 PM EST
Carter: 67        Porter: 168        270 to win
10:00 PM EST
Carter: 88        Porter: 205        270 to win
11:00 PM EST
Carter: 117        Porter: 246        270 to win
12:00 AM EST
Carter: 218        Porter: 320        270 to win
National Popular Vote
Carter(GA)/Edwards(NC) 48.0% (83003000)
Porter(TN)/Romney(MA) 52.0% (89892000)
The list of running mates for my own selection includes the following names; not all of them are listed: Jurnee Smollett and Natalie Portman and Mitt Romney and Richard Nixon and oh so many different ones.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Redefining: 2016-? on: December 16, 2014, 09:36:08 pm
Over at 10!
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Presidential elections Two years before they happened on: December 16, 2014, 09:23:55 pm
That is fun. It would be interesting to see what would change between Obama vs McCain in 2006 and Obama vs McCain in 2008. McCain in 2006 is a more popular Republican nationally than GWB. In 2006 also there is no financial collapse. I thought about 1970. It is not on this list. McGovern probably performs better because that is closer to the time when Nixon ordered the bombing of Cambodia. The Southern strategy is alive and well in real life in 1970 so I would expect the 37th President to do well there.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush on: December 16, 2014, 09:08:41 pm

A 2012 repeat.  The most boring election ever.
You know Bush has money. Jeb Bush does not have a Mitt Romney problem at all. Look at this way. Hillary is a little unelectable because she criticizes and criticized the Iraq War but she voted for in the Senate. Elizabeth Warren has some skeletons in her closet. She for sure has flip flopped somewhere. A candidate who may have voted Republican in the eighties but is now a liberal Democrat is bound to have made some changes in her positions. Mitt Romney was an independent during the Reagan/Bush years. The talking points about Romney are well known.

Revisionist fantasy. Hillary voted to give Bush the authority to go to war with Iraq, not for the baseless war he ended up waging.
I believe Ted Kennedy told the President before Kennedy passed that every vote in the Senate matters if a person seeks higher office.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush on: December 16, 2014, 08:58:24 pm

A 2012 repeat.  The most boring election ever.
You know Bush has money. Jeb Bush does not have a Mitt Romney problem at all. Look at this way. Hillary is a little unelectable because she criticizes and criticized the Iraq War but she voted for in the Senate. Elizabeth Warren has some skeletons in her closet. She for sure has flip flopped somewhere. A candidate who may have voted Republican in the eighties but is now a liberal Democrat is bound to have made some changes in her positions. Mitt Romney was an independent during the Reagan/Bush years. The talking points about Romney are well known. My take on a Clinton vs Bush race is the following:
Hillary Clinton: 257        Jeb Bush: 281        270 to win
In my mind something like the following is not out of the realm of possibility. Something like 2000 before the race got close:
Hillary Clinton: 200        Jeb Bush: 338        270 to win
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: Carter 1980 vs Bush 2008 on: December 16, 2014, 08:54:16 pm
What would Kennedy/Johnson at their most popular moment look like against Reagan/Bush at theirs? Say Kennedy/Johnson October 1962 versus Reagan/Bush October 1984. I suspect just off the top of my head California for Kennedy. Michigan and Pennsylvania for Reagan. My gut says Ohio to Reagan.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: CA-Sen: California Quake on: December 16, 2014, 08:52:47 pm
Whose to say it won't be Angelina Jolie versus Gavin Newsom; who wins that?
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb is basically in on: December 16, 2014, 08:50:19 pm
I got to thinking about how Iowa caucus sometimes does not seem to really matter. It is just as much of a beauty contest now as it was in 1972 and 1976. But I think its important for say Jeb Bush to run everywhere because he then starts organizing for the general election should he be the nominee. Iowa is a beauty contest in the primaries and my suspicion is Bush probably carries it against Clinton in November. But if he does not start organizing there while campaigning in the caucus Clinton can carry it.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: American Electorate @ Present Timeline on: December 16, 2014, 08:46:40 pm
There are a few races we can call. Terry Branstand is a winner that should have been called in Iowa earlier. He is reelected governor. Called now.

Terry Branstand
Iowa Governor
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: American Electorate @ Present Timeline on: December 16, 2014, 02:25:56 pm
Panel?

Now there are clearly some big Senate races outstanding that are waiting to be called.

We have said Louisiana Senate will go to a runoff. There is no projection of that kind yet in Georgia.

One candidate in Georgia could win 50% outright tonight.

We are going to take a look at the governor races how they stand. Both Paul LePage the incumbent in Maine and in Massachusetts Martha Coakley was recently declared the winner.

Rick Scott has conceded in Florida. Tom Corbett did so earlier in Pennsylvania. Paul LePage probably has the independent candidate to thank in Maine for his winning reelection.

Earlier in Florida a excerpt of Rick Scott addressing his supporters: "The people of Florida in firehouses and churches and homes and public meeting places across the state today chose Charlie Crist and of course I accept their decision. Not with the same enthusiasim that I accepted their decision on this spot in this very place four years ago. We thank all of you and God Bless You. God Bless Florida."

Back in a moment.


election '14 coverage
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: American Electorate @ Present Timeline on: December 16, 2014, 02:14:20 pm
Democrat: 43        Republican: 47        Independent: 2        51 for majority
So its still not known what party will control the Senate.

Republicans do have the lead. We will have to see if that lead holds now. Four seats may be too much for the Democrats to overcome at this hour.

Maybe but may also not be too much. We are calling Jeff Merkley the winner. He defeats Monica Wehby.


Jeff Merkley
Oregon Senator

There are some races that are undecided. The race in Louisiana between Bill Cassidy and Mary Landrieu is going to a runoff. Not David Cassidy as was written earlier. The race between Bill Cassidy and Mary Landrieu is going to a runoff.

Mary Landrieu vs Bill Cassidy
Louisiana Senator runoff bound

There is a call now that will make Democrats very happy tonight. Kay Hagan is going back to the United State Senate. She defeats Thom Tillis.

Kay Hagan
North Carolina Senator

That means five more senate races are left to be called. If the Democrats get to 49 in our count they control the Senate for the next two years because the two independents caucus with the Democrats. That number is not 49 but 48 actually. If Democrats reach 50 seats. Adding the two independents to their number as we do as long as Bernie Sanders and Senator Angus King from Maine caucus with Democrats Joe Biden would cast the tie breaking vote and Democrats therefore keep the Senate.
Democrat: 45        Republican: 47        Independent: 2        51 for majority
Louisiana Going To A Runoff. Hagan Wins In North Carolina. The Brown Win Stands In New Hampshire.Some very quick calls. Paul LePage is the winner in Maine. Martha Coakley hangs on defeats Charlie Baker and moves from the office of Massachusetts attorney general to the Massachusetts state house. Martha Coakley is the next governor of Massachusetts.

Paul LePage
Maine Governor

Martha Coakley
Massachusetts Governor


election '14 coverage
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Comparing raw votes totals of Senators from different years on: December 16, 2014, 10:23:02 am
Andrew Cuomo '14: 1,951,247
George Pataki '94: 2,538,702
The New York number kind of surprised me but then it kind of did not. I would think not knowing New York politics as well as I do Kentucky for example I would think the Cuomo family is one of the only Democrat political families in modern New York politics to see one of their own loose a governor election.
Tom Wolf '14: 1,920,355
Tom Corbett '10: 2,172,763
It would have been really great being a Republican for the wave to have pulled in Corbett this year. The wave is already great. I could not help but notice that even the announcement of President Obama coming to Philidelphia to campaign for Wolf allowed for Corbett to improve his own performance in public opinion polls.
Pat Quinn '10: 1,745,219
Bruce Rauner '14: 1,823,627
I expected for Democrats to win both Illinois governor and Kansas governor. But as for most Republicans I'm sure it was a pleasant surprise when they went Republican. I did not stay up late enough on election night to see Tillis win against Hagan but I did see Rauner declared the winner against Quinn.
Joan Finney '90: 380,609
Sam Brownback '14: 433,196
Yup Democrat name always goes first. 1990 shows how far back one must go to find a competetive Kansas governor election.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: the birth of modern america & onward on: December 15, 2014, 04:30:19 pm
North Dakota and South Dakota and Colorado are all going to Thomas Dewey. Dewey spends this election night trying to unseat Carl Hayden tonight. The inauguration will not be until January 20th. Either tonight

Thomas Dewey
North Dakota 4 electoral votes

Thomas Dewey
South Dakota 4 electoral votes

Thomas Dewey
Colorado 6 electoral votes

That being either way Carl Hayden is still the President of the United States for about seventy two more days. That is a difference between the United States and the United Kingdom. In the United Kingdom a prime minister immediately succeeds another into office the day after the election except in the case of a hung parliament.

The fact is for example in 1997 John Major that in real life lost his bid at being reelected Prime Minister and he vacated Downing Street about twelve hours after labour and Tony Blair won the election. Blair took office himself later that afternoon after having it okayed by the queen of England.

Different than the United States only in a few ways.

Another thing is when the conservatives won the British government in 1979 Jim Callaghan quickly vacated Downing Street and Margaret Thatcher came in.

The President will be the same tomorrow and again for approximately seventy two more days and maybe another four years. Either Carl Hayden or Thomas Dewey takes the oath of office on January 20th 1945. President Hayden is the winner in North Carolina and Arkansas. He also carries Texas and Oklahoma and Louisiana.


Carl Hayden
North Carolina 14 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
Arkansas 9 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
Texas 23 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
Oklahoma 10 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
Louisiana 10 electoral votes

President Hayden opens up a lead in an election where we do not know what is happening.
Hayden: 156        Dewey: 49        266 to win

Yeah the newspaper headlines for tomorrow if they were written right now says at best if they can make a characterization 'too early to call.'

If you were writing the headline for tomorrow; what would it say?

Either Hayden Wins or Hayden Leads Nationally. I expect Thomas Dewey to do well in states where they are East of the Mississippi River and Hayden to do well West of the Mississippi river and  California to officially win the President reelection but there is a lot of coverage yet to come.

A lot to come and that is not a projection. West Virginia goes to the President.


Carl Hayden
West Virginia 8 electoral votes

There is a projection Arizona goes for Carl Hayden. New Mexico shows a lead for the President. Close in a handful of places. Illinois shows a lead for Thomas Dewey. Wyoming and Missouri are too close to call. Missouri is a big state with 15 electoral votes to give to the candidate who wins the popular vote in their state.

That would be interesting if Missouri went somehow for a minor party candidate and threw the election to the house of representatives.

It is expected that either Carl Hayden or Thomas Dewey the Republican will carry Missouri. But it would be interesting if the show me state went to a minor party candidate and affected the election nationally. I'll agree with you.

Really a hard nosed electorate. No call in Pennsylvania and New York and Massachusetts. Checking New York again right now. Big electoral vote prize; homestate of governor Dewey. That alone means nothing as to which candidate carries the state. It looks like at 10 o'clock there will be some major projections that will again shift the electoral vote count but none right now.

Thomas Dewey does carry Michigan. It good news for him.


Thomas Dewey
Michigan 19 electoral votes

Arizona goes rather easily for President Carl Hayden the Democrat.

Carl Hayden
Arizona 4 electoral votes
Hayden: 168        Dewey: 68        266 to win
President Hayden Leads Governor Dewey By Exactly 100 Electoral College Votes; Hayden Is 98 Electoral Votes Away From Being Reelected. Of 531 Electoral Votes Out There Some 295 Still Either Are Not Declared But The Polls Are Closed Or People Are Still Voting.I can say some of the returns look pretty equivelant to when Herbert Hoover won the presidency eight years ago. Every election is different but that is just an observation.

No other calls right now. Back in a moment.




Carl Hayden Won A Landslide Four Years Ago. His Reelection Is Just As Likely As Thomas Dewey His Opponent Winning The Election And Unseating Carl Hayden.
election '44 coverage
14  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Political Machine Results on: December 12, 2014, 01:19:11 pm
Max Cleland (D-GA)/John Kennedy (D-MA) versus Garrison Porter (R-TN)/Jane Norton (R-CO)
Opinion Poll(Porter+16)
Cleland 39%
Porter 55%
Undecided 6%
Garrison Porter ran off to Colorado at the end of the campaign to make a campaign appearance there with his running mate as the Porter/Norton ticket held a 41 point lead in Colorado; Max Cleland was already offering his congratulations. The Cleland/Kennedy camp admitted a few days before the election that the Porter/Norton ticket was performing nationally exceedingly well.
Actual Election Results
Cleland: 55        Porter: 483        270 to win
National Popular Vote
Max Cleland 41.3% (68072000)
Garrison Porter 58.7% (96721000)
The Democrat base in California can take some pride that the Cleland/Kennedy ticket carried the state by a close vote. Garrison Porter on the other hand won handily outperforming the opinion poll.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: the birth of modern america & onward on: December 07, 2014, 11:27:22 pm
The Polls Are Now Closing In The Following Places: Maine & New Hampshire & Massachusetts & Connecticut & New Jersey & Pennsylvania & Delaware & Maryland & Alabama & Mississippi & Florida & Missouri & Oklahoma & Kansas & NebraskaCarl Hayden carries Tennessee

Carl Hayden
Tennessee 12 electoral votes

President Hayden is also the winner in Florida and Alabama and Mississippi.

Carl Hayden
Florida 8 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
Alabama 11 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
Mississippi 9 electoral votes

Good news for the President. He carries Kentucky. Hayden; the President carries Maryland. The Republican candidate completes the duo of what according to the last election he does well; carries Maine. Thomas Dewey is the winner in Maine.

Carl Hayden
Kentucky 11 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
Maryland 8 electoral votes

Thomas Dewey
Maine 5 electoral votes

Thomas Dewey carries Nebraska and Kansas with over 60% of the vote in both states. Win or loose nationally Thomas Dewey will be one of the first in terms of recent Republican nominees for President to earn 60%+ of the vote in Nebraska and Kansas.

Thomas Dewey
Nebraska 6 electoral votes

Thomas Dewey
Kansas 8 electoral votes
Hayden: 90        Dewey: 35        266 to win

President Carl Hayden leads in Oklahoma. Back with more after this.



Maryland (Projected Result)
Hayden 53.75%
Dewey 44.8%
Other 1.45%


election '44 coverage
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: the birth of modern america & onward on: December 07, 2014, 07:45:24 pm
Hayden: 31
Dewey: 16
266 to win
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: the birth of modern america & onward on: December 07, 2014, 07:43:44 pm
Republicans are back; their not saying that yet tonight but there is a good chance Thomas Dewey will be the next President. Dewey carries Vermont. Hayden is the winner in South Carolina and Georgia.

Thomas Dewey
Vermont 3 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
South Carolina 8 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
Georgia 12 electoral votes

Dewey carries Indiana. That is good news for the Republicans that the state is called so early. The hoosier states drops for Thomas Dewey. Virginia also goes rather easily for Carl Hayden.

Thomas Dewey
Indiana 13 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
Virginia 11 electoral votes

Carl Hayden vs Thomas Dewey
President of the United States of America

No call right now in Kentucky for the presidential race. Kentucky is undecided at this hour. Ohio and West Virginia are both undecided at this hour.


election '44 coverage
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: the birth of modern america & onward on: December 07, 2014, 07:17:24 pm
1942 United State Senate Election Results
Democrat: 55        Republican: 41        49 for majority
1942 United State House of Representative Election Results
Democrat: 311        Republican: 124        219 for majority
For these elections in 1940 Republicans were wondering where all the Republicans had gone; well their back. Especially in the United State Senate elections. Democrats held Kentucky and the Hayden administration likes that. Keeps it from being a wave election win for the Republicans but both Michigan and Minnesota among other places go Republican. Democrats in spite of the Senate results gain 15 seats in the House.
President Carl Hayden (D-AZ)/Vice President Richard Russell (D-GA) versus Governor Thomas Dewey (R-NY)/Former Governor Harold Stassen (R-MN); election 1944 nominees
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: the birth of modern america & onward on: December 07, 2014, 07:02:21 pm
Election 1940 Coverage Close: Carl Hayden Wins A Wide And Far Running Away Election Victory; Carries Forty Six States Of The Forty EightCarl Hayden carries Washington and Oregon and Idaho and California.

Carl Hayden
Washington 8 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
Oregon 5 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
Idaho 4 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
California 22 electoral votes
Hayden: 523        Hoover: 8        266 to win



Democrat: 62        Republican: 34        49 for majority
1940 United State House of Representative Election Results
Democrat: 296        Republican: 149        219 for majority


election '40 coverage & results
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: the birth of modern america & onward on: December 07, 2014, 03:37:24 pm
Lets pull up the electoral map as it stands right now.
Hayden: 462        Hoover: 3        266 to win

Both Montana and Nevada are casting their electoral college votes for Carl Hayden.

Carl Hayden
Montana 4 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
Nevada 3 electoral votes

Both Utah and Iowa go for Carl Hayden. Maine is the only state where the polls have closed but where there is no declared winner.

Carl Hayden
Utah 4 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
Iowa 11 electoral votes


election '40 coverage
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: the birth of modern america & onward on: December 07, 2014, 03:20:30 pm
There are some other declarations. President elect Hayden will carry New Hampshire and New York and New Mexico and Colorado.

Carl Hayden
New Hampshire 4 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
New York 47 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
New Mexico 3 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
Colorado 6 electoral votes

Both Texas and Louisiana cast their electoral votes for Carl Hayden. Arizona also goes for Senator Hayden; South Dakota does too.

Carl Hayden
Texas 23 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
Louisiana 10 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
Arizona 3 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
South Dakota 4 electoral votes
Hayden: 402        Hoover: 0        266 to win

Vermont cast its electoral votes for Herbert Hoover. The first state the President gets tonight.

Herbert Hoover
Vermont 3 electoral votes

President elect Hayden is the winner in Minnesota and Wisconsin and Michigan. He carries Minnesota by 2 to 1.

Carl Hayden
Minnesota 11 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
Wisconsin 12 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
Michigan 19 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
President of the United States of America

President elect Carl Hayden is the winner in Wyoming and North Dakota and Rhode Island. He also carries Nebraska.

Carl Hayden
Wyoming 3 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
North Dakota 4 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
Rhode Island 4 electoral votes

Carl Hayden
Nebraska 7 electoral votes

Back again with more election 1940 coverage after this.



National Popular Vote
Hayden 62.0%
Hoover (I) 37.4%
Other 00.6%


election '40 coverage
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Is Donnelly really set to lose in 2018? on: December 07, 2014, 02:30:59 pm
Another related question is the following. What are the odds President Hillary Clinton is faced with a Republican super majority in the Senate from January 2019 until January 2021? And beyond that a President Hillary Clinton being on the ticket in 2020 probably helps Gardner and Tillis because Colorado and North Carolina just as two examples are not her strongest states. Mark Warner may well loose in 2020 with a President Hillary Clinton running for reelection.
23  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Political Machine Results on: December 07, 2014, 01:33:29 pm
1:00 AM EST
Ford Junior: 54        Porter: 448        270 to win
2:00 AM EST
Ford Junior: 90        Porter: 448        270 to win
3:00 AM EST
No projections
4:00 AM EST
No projections
5:00 AM EST
No projections
6:00 AM EST
No projections
Election results after certification of all votes cast
Ford Junior: 90        Porter: 448        270 to win
National Popular Vote
Ford Junior(TN)/Carter(GA) 43.151% (74353000)
Porter(TN)/Romney(MA) 56.859% (97954000)
24  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Political Machine Results on: December 07, 2014, 01:23:54 pm
Harold Ford Junior/Jimmy Carter versus Garrison Porter/Mitt Romney
Opinion Poll(Porter+14)
Ford Junior 41%
Porter 55%
Undecided 4%
Harold Ford Junior vs Garrison Porter
President of the United States of America
7:00 PM EST
Ford Junior: 0        Porter: 22        270 to win
7:30 PM EST
Ford Junior: 0        Porter: 47        270 to win
8:00 PM EST
Ford Junior: 0        Porter: 147        270 to win
8:30 PM EST
No projections
9:00 PM EST
Ford Junior: 0        Porter: 285        270 to win
Garrison Porter
President of the United States of America
10:00 PM EST
Ford Junior: 0        Porter: 324        270 to win
11:00 PM EST
Ford Junior: 17        Porter: 355        270 to win
12:00 AM EST
Ford Junior: 17        Porter: 393        270 to win
25  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Political Machine Results on: December 07, 2014, 12:05:07 am
Elizabeth Warren/John Kennedy versus Garrison Porter/Natalie Portman
Spoiler: Garrison Porter wins dramatic election victory. Close race in Massachusetts between the Warren/Kennedy and the Porter/Portman tickets. Warren widely favored in some Democrat strongholds. Porter wins California and cracks 60 percent of the vote in Minnesota.
9:00 PM EST
Warren: 65        Porter: 238        270 to win
2:00 AM EST
Warren: 94        Porter: 430        270 to win
Garrison Porter
President of the United States of America
Election results after certification of all votes cast
Warren: 98        Porter: 440        270 to win
Selected State Results
New York
Warren 58%
Porter 42%
Illinois
Warren 57%
Porter 43%
National Popular Vote
Warren(MA)/Kennedy(MA) 44.63% (78016000)
Porter(TN)/Portman(OH) 55.47% (96781000)
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