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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Would a runoff increase or reduce Michelle Nunn's chances? on: July 23, 2014, 09:57:17 am
What would be the argument that it could increase her chances? That doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.
I cannot think of one. She would have to lead in the general election by ten percent in my opinion to win the runoff.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Which of the following candidates think they'll win the gubernatorial election? on: July 23, 2014, 09:55:09 am
Quinn; if I were writing a timeline on the 2014 elections Rauner wins the governorship at the top of the 8 o'clock hour. Its a 12 point lead in the polls right now. Something Illinois has not seen in a good decade or so.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Would a runoff increase or reduce Michelle Nunn's chances? on: July 23, 2014, 09:54:06 am
Reduce; Perdue wins 54-46 in a runoff
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: 1994 New York Governor on: July 22, 2014, 06:33:01 pm
Pataki also played up negative stereotypes about the City, which probably helped to convince Giuliani to endorse Cuomo. Pataki and Giuliani's rivalry continued for quite some time.
I can imagine the jaws dropping in the Pataki headquarters when Giuliani endorses Cuomo. I have seen video of an interview with Mitilda Cuomo on election night 1994 before the polls in the state closed. It seemed like she really wanted to win and Cuomo thought he and the lieutenant governor would win. Apparantly what happened is the independent candidate underperformed on election day. Golisano only take 4.18 percent of the vote. Roughly 370000 people voted in New York City and Cuomo took just under 300000 of them. In 1990 Cuomo in New York City carried 202306 votes out of about 257000 cast. The minor party candidate in New York City in 1990 carried 12.6% of the vote and in '94 only 1%.

Yes to the rivalry. It may be the reason D'Amato lost in 1998. If the Pataki camp was surprised by the Giuliani move by the way given the stereotypes from Pataki I do not think Pataki should have been surprised when his lieutenant governor walked out on him before the 1998 election promising to run against him in the '98 New York Governor Republican Primary.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Political Lions on: July 22, 2014, 06:23:20 pm
After Iowa and New Hampshire I expect either Kennedy to drop out and endorse Mondale or Mondale drop out and endorse Kennedy.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The surprises of the Senate elections... on: July 22, 2014, 04:41:57 pm
For Senate and governor elections...

Dems Overperforming
-Walsh narrowly wins reelection
-Grimes and Paul Davis win by more than 5 points
-Shaheen wins reelection by a larger margin than Brown won against Warren, and Hassan tops 60%

Republicans Overperforming
-Coakley blows another election for the Mass Dems
-Dan Malloy loses reelection
-Wehby and McFadden lose only by single digits

That's actually entirely in the realm of possibility

Of course it is. These are all things that I think have a 40-60% chance of happening but that aren't hugely accepted premises. I think Malloy will lose reelection, but most people do not

Amazing! Something we agree on. Most people think that because they're not from CT and don't know what a horrible job he has done. They just see what he has done on paper and approve, and don't actually see what it has done.
Its possible Jeanne Shaheen will win by a larger or by about the same margin that Hillary Clinton won against Rick Lazio in New York in 2000.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: 1994 New York Governor on: July 21, 2014, 10:37:13 am
The debates likely would have benefited Cuomo as he was the more seasoned candidate and a strong public speaker. It's likely Pataki chose to avoid the debates for fear of being defeated by Cuomo. While refusing to appear likely did cost him some support, that was a negligible loss compared to the potential loss of being defeated on television by Cuomo.

As to your question on why Cuomo lost; the biggest issue in the election was crime, which was still a major problem in New York City. Cuomo was a strong opponent of the death penalty, while Pataki was a supporter of it. This helped Pataki greatly. Another major factor was that 1994 was a bad year for Democrats nationally, and Cuomo's three terms as Governor reflected a major national complaint directed at Congressional Democrats: They had been in power too long and were out-of-touch.

Hope that helped!
I find it very arrogant on the part of George Pataki that he thought he could win by carrying the crime issue everywhere in New York except New York city. Seeing that the city is a great base of the Democratic party which I don't mind. Some of the people living in the city no matter their party affaliation are really nice folks and very intelligent and so on. If I were of voting age in 1994 I'm with Rudy Giuliani (he endorsed Cuomo). Politics is politics and thats the great thing about living in a democracy. Democracy is excellent. Anyone can vote and support likewise anyone. Some election campaigns in every election year stand out for good and bad reasons and just reasons in general.

Thank you for your analysis by the way it was excellent.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Post random maps here on: July 20, 2014, 07:18:19 pm
1976 election:
Frank Church/Mo Udall: 242
Gerald Ford/Ronald Reagan: 296
270 to win
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / 1994 New York Governor on: July 20, 2014, 05:55:31 pm
Would a one on one debate between Democrat Mario Cuomo and Republican George Pataki have done anything to change the outcome of the election? There were a few debates all of which Pataki is invited to but does not attend. Cuomo attends all. I'm not sure why because after all it seems to me that those debates only gave more votes to Cuomo and took them away from the leading independent candidate in that election race but did nothing to the Pataki number. I think a one on one debate would have changed the outcome of the election. Either Pataki hits 50%+ or Cuomo wins a 4th term. Why in your opinion did Cuomo in real life loose the election? I don't know what the economy was like in New York in 1994 and Cuomo wins overwhelmingly the other three times that he ran statewide for governor. I think George Pataki said in short 'elect me and Cuomo is out' and he won. I'm interested to hear what people that read this thread think.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Could the outcome of this election change the national narrative? on: July 18, 2014, 09:34:37 am
Any good books out there on the 1994 New York Governor election and or Texas Governor or Virginia Senate all from 1994?
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kirsten Gillibrand versus Mitt Romney on: July 18, 2014, 09:33:27 am
The question for Mitt Romney is does he either take Rick Snyder's job in 2018 and or just retire quietly with his wife in his boyhood home or does he go out and defend his stance on abortion on a daily basis all day every day in 2016.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: Hillary vs. Obama 2012 Democratic primary on: July 17, 2014, 04:46:52 pm
The President wins Iowa & New Hampshire & South Carolina by more than 3 to 1 & wins the nomination on Super Tuesday. Obama/Biden looses the election to Romney/Christie.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did FDR lose support in 1944 from 1940? on: July 17, 2014, 04:38:25 pm
He broke a promise and thought he could get away with it. It is the same reason Woodrow Wilson became unpopular in his second term.

Yeah, it's not like the US was attacked by an axis power or something... Roll Eyes
That makes a lot of sense. I assume you would characterize going to war after a terrorist organization flies an airplane into an american building in the same context & I understand the differences. With all three those being both American entry into both world wars and the iraq war a symbol of America was attacked. The USS Maine under President Wilson & the Pearl Harbor attack & 9/11.

The explosion of the USS Maine (whether from a Spanish mine or not) happened in 1898 and was a catalyst for the Spanish-American War, not World War I.  I don't think it was the sinking of any single ship that brought the U.S. into WWI, but the fact that Germany made it clear that they would attempt to sink any American ship within the waters of the Allied nations without warning and had followed up on that threat, sinking three merchant ships I believe.  Also the Zimmerman telegram, promising territory in the southwest to Mexico if it joined the war on Germany's side after the U.S. went to war with Germany.
Your correct & one of the most inaccurate things taught in an average history class today is that the assassination of the arch duke ferdinand is the single cause of the first world war. Just like Ronald Reagan did not end the Cold War alone & the war on terror arguably began in 1979.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: How in the world is Begich holding on so far? on: July 17, 2014, 11:13:24 am
I'm convinced he will loose the election in November. He severely underperformed statewide polls in 2008 and no reason that he will not do the same thing this year and if thats the case well need I say more. He has a nack for winning close elections. The worst thing to happen to the Alaska Republican party is for whats his face to be nominated. The man who lost to Murkowski in 2010 not that the Democrat nominee was a woman; the whole thing about some red states turning blue will prove I think wishful thinking for Democrats and nothing more.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did FDR lose support in 1944 from 1940? on: July 17, 2014, 11:08:26 am
Not sure, but maybe it has to do with the fact that people thought FDR had been in office too long, and Dewey was moderate enough to peel off some of those voters.
I'm convinced both of those things are true.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did FDR lose support in 1944 from 1940? on: July 17, 2014, 11:07:59 am
He broke a promise and thought he could get away with it. It is the same reason Woodrow Wilson became unpopular in his second term.

Yeah, it's not like the US was attacked by an axis power or something... Roll Eyes
That makes a lot of sense. I assume you would characterize going to war after a terrorist organization flies an airplane into an american building in the same context & I understand the differences. With all three those being both American entry into both World Wars and the Iraq war a response to an attack on the United States. It does not necessarily have to be on our own soil or so history proves.  The USS Maine under President Wilson & the Pearl Harbor attack & 9/11 being examples.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did FDR lose support in 1944 from 1940? on: July 17, 2014, 11:04:19 am
There's a recent book on the 1944 campaign, I think it's called Final Victory.  Having read that on a plane a year or so ago...

-Dewey was a more polished candidate than Willkie.
-FDR was dying of heart failure and until early in 1944, he had a horrible, incompetent doctor who wasn't treating his heart disease in any way.  He was only able to campaign because of his new doctor's treatment.
-FDR may have lost even more ground among civilians, but he won a huge majority of military votes, a pretty big group back then.  This was actually a huge issue because the GOP wanted to deprive active duty military of their vote and FDR's campaign really counted on their turnout.
I intend to read that book and those three points about FDR & Dewey make a lot of sense.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who is more likely to win? on: July 16, 2014, 04:50:33 pm
From a political perspective I would say it is not out of the possibility that a Democrat can win the West Virginia Senate election this year and theoretically block like 2010 the Republicans from controling the Senate & if Tennant wins West Virginia Senate Hillary Clinton runs for President. The Clintons I have little doubt are watching the results of this years elections all three governor & senate & house especially the former president.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did FDR lose support in 1944 from 1940? on: July 16, 2014, 04:46:23 pm
He broke a promise and thought he could get away with it. It is the same reason Woodrow Wilson became unpopular in his second term. Yes it is turnout related and yes Dewey is attractive in 1944 to some of the 1940 Roosevelt voters. Yes FDR's health is a concern to voters beginning in 1940 and I wish we had reliable exit polls from that era and would be interested to know where to find them. That very previous statement just coming from the mouth of a historian.

On that note I would also like to know where to find state by state polling like what is available on this website for elections going back to 2004. I would like to find that for every election in the 20th century & matching 1936 is not going to happen for Roosevelt in 1944. If it did it would defy history. Defing history is not impossible and happens more often than not. In another thread about the 22nd ammendment the question arose about a GWB 2008 election run if a third term were allowed. Remember Harry Truman 1948 for  that one. Anything is possible in any election no matter where especially in a democracy.

The answer to your questions lie in the fact that FDR got fewer electoral & popular votes in 1944 than in 1940. Ohio & Wisconsin & Michigan come from a part of the country that traditionally is more competetive than any other both then between then & now & now. Being inside the FDR/Truman election campaign war room in 1944 would be fascinating. I'm sure some of the same questions you ask in your thread here were asked there. It was a fight with the Dewey campaign to maintain the FDR image and the Roosevelt camp lost that battle. The fact that FDR carried Michigan is a sign that he tried. Had he captured the same or more electoral votes that he did in '40 then the fight for the Roosevelt image is won.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Kirsten Gillibrand versus Mitt Romney on: July 15, 2014, 07:03:16 pm
Discuss the matchup. I think Mitt Romney wins narrowly. Putting Pennsylvania Republican and New Hampshire Democrat is based a lot on the memory of another Republican President starting two wars. George HW Bush backing Mitt Romney may well cost Romney New Hampshire even down the stretch. A Gillibrand versus Romney matchup is very competitive with Romney with a map like this winning the nationwide popular vote by only a fourth of a percentage point. (I am so used to putting 10 font around anything posted on this forum jk. About did it again here).
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Willard "Mitt" Romney 2016 megathread on: July 15, 2014, 06:53:56 pm

All 47% of them
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in the Dairyland? on: July 15, 2014, 06:39:14 pm
I think it will come down to the debates.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who is more likely to win? on: July 15, 2014, 06:38:03 pm
Natalie Tennant; I liked Scott Brown and still do. I think Jeanne Shaheen has learned and grown over her political career which serves her well.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: No 2-term limit for presidents on: July 15, 2014, 06:34:51 pm
Is it possible Bush 43 would even tried to seek a 3rd term in 2008 ?



No.

But, and this would make a fun little timeline, what if Bush left office, things go about the same, maybe a little worse in the economy. Maybe Libya fails. BUSH CHALLENGES OBAMA. HILARITY ENSUES.
I guess we will never know what a GWB 2008 election race or since you suggested it 2012 would look like. If the 22nd amendment were abolished I'm not sure I agree 2008 is Bill Clinton versus George W Bush.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: No 2-term limit for presidents on: July 15, 2014, 05:46:03 pm
1952 General Eisenhower versus President Truman
Dwight Eisenhower/Richard Nixon: 329
Harry Truman/Alben Barkley: 202
266 to win
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