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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: the birth of modern america & onward on: October 30, 2014, 01:16:41 pm
After Polls Close in 23 States Franklin Roosevelt Age 38 Leads Illinois Governor Frank Lowden In ElectionFranklin Roosevelt is the winner in Alabama and Mississippi and Florida and Tennessee. Frank Lowden is the winner in Massachusetts and Maine and New Hampshire. Roosevelt is the winner in Oklahoma.

Franklin Roosevelt
Alabama 12 electoral votes

Franklin Roosevelt
Mississippi 10 electoral votes

Franklin Roosevelt
Florida 6 electoral votes

Franklin Roosevelt
Tennessee 12 electoral votes

Frank Lowden
Massachusetts 18 electoral votes

Frank Lowden
Maine 6 electoral votes

Frank Lowden
New Hampshire 4 electoral votes


election '20 coverage
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: the birth of modern america & onward on: October 30, 2014, 01:08:25 pm
Election 1920 coverage. There are a few projections that we can make right now. South Carolina and Georgia will both cast their electoral college votes for Franklin Roosevelt.

Franklin Roosevelt
South Carolina 9 electoral votes

Franklin Roosevelt
Georgia 14 electoral votes
Roosevelt: 23        Lowden: 0        McAdoo: 0        266 to win

Virginia will cast its electoral college votes for Franklin Roosevelt. Vermont cast its electoral college votes for Governor Lowden.

Franklin Roosevelt
Virginia 12 electoral votes

Frank Lowden
Vermont 4 electoral votes

We are unable to make a projection in either West Virginia or New York. No projections are available either in Indiana and Kentucky. Election 1920 coverage will continue after this.



Roosevelt: 35        Lowden: 4        McAdoo: 0        266 to win


election '20 coverage
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Upset of election night on: October 29, 2014, 08:27:32 am
An upset would be Rauner still winning the Illinois governor election.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: the birth of modern america & onward on: October 28, 2014, 05:40:08 pm
In 1918 Republicans retake control of both houses of congress. Plus seven net gain for Republicans in the Senate and plus forty in the house.
Democrat: 43        Republican: 53        49 for majority
The House results for 1918 are the following.
Democrat: 208        Republican: 227        219 for majority
Come 1920 President Underwood decides he will run for reelection. Presidents are not yet bared constitutionally from seeking a third term as President. However in the 1920 Democrat primary in spite of some early success in his bid for the nomination; Oscar Underwood President of the United States eventually drops his bid to seek a third term. He promises to champion a new amendment to the constitution before the new President takes office in March 1921 to limit constitutionally a President to two four year terms. Franklin Delano Roosevelt age 38 is the Democrat nominee for President in 1920.
Navy Secretary Franklin Delano Roosevelt (D-NY)/Senator Gilbert Hitchcock (D-NE) versus Governor Frank Lowden (R-IL)/Senator Robert Lafollette (R-WI) versus Former Treasury Secretary William McAdoo (I-CA)/Columbia University President Nicholas Butler (I-NY) Election 1920 Nominees
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: the birth of modern america & onward on: October 28, 2014, 12:56:59 pm
This election will go to the house of representatives. The vice presidency will be decided in the upper chamber of congress. Democrats will control both the House and the Senate for the next two years. President Underwood is the winner in Nebraska.
Election Goes To The House; Oscar Underwood Carries NebraskaCharles Curtis is the winner in New Hampshire. This is Garrison Porter. Thanks for reading.

Democrat
House Control

Democrat
Senate Control

Oscar Underwood
Nebraska 8 electoral votes

Oscar Underwood vs Charles Curtis vs Hiram Johnson
President of the United States of America

Charles Curtis
New Hampshire 4 electoral votes



Underwood: 224        Curtis: 254        Johnson: 53        266 to win
Rhode Island after counting absentee ballots and a recount comes out of the Republican column and goes into the Democratic column
Oscar Underwood
Rhode Island 5 electoral votes
Republicans do have a net gain of six seats in the upper chamber of congress. Democrats do retain control as was projected.
Democrat: 50        Republican: 46        49 for majority
Republicans make a big gain of thirty-two seats in the house. Only tightening the majority for Democrats in the House leading up to the vote for President of the United States.
Democrat: 248        Republican: 187        219 for majority
1st ballot vote result for president in house of representatives:
Democrat: 26        Republican: 12        Independent: 10

Oscar Underwood
President of the United States of America
President Underwood Reelected In House On First Ballot; Vice President Eugene Foss Is Also Reelected In Senate[/i

election '16 coverage & results
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: the birth of modern america & onward on: October 28, 2014, 09:26:15 am
Election 1916 update. We are calling five other states. Governor Johnson is the winner in Idaho. He also carries Washington state. Charles Curtis the Republican is the winner in Oregon.

Hiram Johnson
Idaho 4 electoral votes

Hiram Johnson
Washington 7 electoral votes

Charles Curtis
Oregon 5 electoral votes

Iowa will go for Charles Curtis.

Charles Curtis
Iowa 13 electoral votes

Yes by one of the wider margins of the night in a state for one of the candidates Charles Curtis is the winner in Kansas. A state we have been waiting on. The conclusion of election night 1924 coverage coming up next.

Charles Curtis
Kansas 10 electoral votes



California (Projected Result)
Underwood (I) 13%
Curtis 37%
Johnson 33%
Other 17%
Minor party candidates whose names do not appear on the ballot win more votes in California than the incumbent President.
National Popular Vote (Projected Result)
Underwood (I) 33%
Curtis 34%
Johnson 16%
Other 17%


election '16 coverage
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: the birth of modern america & onward on: October 27, 2014, 10:52:41 pm
Underwood: 211
Curtis: 227
Johnson: 42
266 to win
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: the birth of modern america & onward on: October 27, 2014, 10:51:33 pm
We are calling a handful of other states right now. Senator Johnson is the winner in Nevada and Montana. President Underwood carries Utah and Charles Curtis is the winner in Wyoming.

Hiram Johnson
Nevada 3 electoral votes

Hiram Johnson
Montana 4 electoral votes

Oscar Underwood
Utah 4 electoral votes

Charles Curtis
Wyoming 3 electoral votes

Good news for Charles Curtis. He is the winner in New York and California; two electoral vote rich and key states drop for the Republican nominee.
Curtis Secures Sixteen Electoral Vote Lead; Carries Wyoming In Key Region Of Country Given A Three Way RaceCharles Curtis
New York 45 electoral votes

Oscar Underwood vs Charles Curtis vs Hiram Johnson
President of the United States of America

Charles Curtis
California 13 electoral votes


election '16 coverage
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Was Rothenberg right about Rounds? on: October 27, 2014, 04:58:59 pm
I am pulling for a Rounds call at the top of the 9 o'clock hour EST eight days from now.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1940: FDR vs. Hoover (again) on: October 27, 2014, 01:55:52 pm
Worst case scenario in my opinion for Hoover:

Roosevelt: 490
Hoover: 41
Best case scenario in my opinion for Hoover:

Roosevelt: 385
Hoover: 146
In that scenario Roosevelt carries West Virginia by 17 votes (367936-367919) out of more than 700000 cast.
Moderate cast scenario in my opinion for Hoover:

Roosevelt: 493
Hoover: 38
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: What Network will you watch Election Night? on: October 27, 2014, 08:22:43 am
If I have time given my school work to watch the coverage next Tuesday night my first choice is CNN. I like MSNBC; really cannot stand watching the FOX coverage. If I am not watching the coverage I'll follow it some on politico.com.
12  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Political Machine Results on: October 26, 2014, 11:14:11 pm
1:00 AM EST
No projections
2:00 AM EST
Crist: 68        Porter: 415        270 to win
3:00 AM EST
No projections
4:00 AM EST
No projections
5:00 AM EST
Crist: 123        Porter: 415        270 to win
6:00 AM EST
No projections
Election results after certification of all votes cast
Crist: 123        Porter: 415        270 to win
National Popular Vote
Charlie Crist/John Kennedy 43.48% (75051000)
Garrison Porter/Natalie Portman 56.52% (97535000)
13  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Political Machine Results on: October 26, 2014, 11:06:12 pm
Final Opinion Poll(Porter+12)
Charlie Crist/John Kennedy 42%
Garrison Porter/Natalie Portman 54%
Undecided 4%
Charlie Crist vs Garrison Porter
President of the United States of America
7:00 PM EST
Crist: 0        Porter: 50        270 to win
7:30 PM EST
No projections
8:00 PM EST
Crist: 0        Porter: 148        270 to win
8:30 PM EST
Crist: 0        Porter: 194        270 to win
9:00 PM EST
Crist: 12        Porter: 302        270 to win
Garrison Porter (151-38)
President of the United States of America
10:00 PM EST
Crist: 12        Porter: 335        270 to win
11:00 PM EST
Crist: 47        Porter: 354        270 to win
12:00 AM EST
Crist: 47        Porter: 381        270 to win
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: How many seats will Republicans have in the Senate when all is said and done? on: October 25, 2014, 04:02:23 pm
Ultimately they will come out in the end with around 55 seats -maybe even 56.  The GOP will hold on to Georgia, Mississippi, Kentucky, Kansas, and South Dakota (while they are tantalizing, I am not buying those polls showing Democrats/independents in the lead in any of those states), and will pick up West Virginia, Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, Arkansas, Louisiana, and North Carolina whether on election day, or in the subsequent run-offs, depending on the state.  A lot of these will be close, and down to the wire nail biters, but I think the GOP will ultimately pull it off.  Virginia will get even closer too as election day approaches, and with Sen. Mark Warner needlessly meddling into state politics, he will find himself winning by 5 points -possibly less.

So that's 54 seats right there.  And with Angus King and Joe Manchin either switching parties outright, or simply caucusing with the GOP, that brings their governing total to 56. 
Bold prediction; I could see say 54 Republican seats happening.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1968 - Romney/Brooke vs Humphrey/Muskie (including Wallace) on: October 25, 2014, 02:46:23 pm
Would a Romney Republican nominee against a hypothetical JFK/LBJ 1964 candidacy with a 'brainwashing' Vietnam comment in say September 1964 have hurt a Romney candidacy to a point where the bottom falls out of his standing in the polls?
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cotton or Hagan- who is in better shape? on: October 25, 2014, 02:44:12 pm
Pryor's ground game is elite, though. If Cotton is only up by 4-7 points right now, that is not good news because the Pryor groundgame is enough for 5 points alone.
I agree the Pryor ground game is really good. His winning the 2002 election in his state was impressive.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: the birth of modern america & onward on: October 25, 2014, 10:43:05 am
The Attainment Of Electoral Votes For His Side Makes Election Look Like Outright Win For CurtisThere are some other projections. On the way to 266 electoral college votes Charles Curtis the Republican seems to be on his way It is early on but the Republican camp we have word is optimistic at the moment about the prospect that their candidate can win the election outright and therefore preventing the election from going to the house. Hiram Johnson is the winner the Independent in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Oscar Underwood carries Texas and Louisiana and Oklahoma.

Hiram Johnson
Minnesota 12 electoral votes

Hiram Johnson
Wisconsin 13 electoral votes

Oscar Underwood
Texas 20 electoral votes

Oscar Underwood
Louisiana 10 electoral votes

Oscar Underwood
Oklahoma 10 electoral votes
Underwood: 140        Curtis: 140        Johnson: 25        266 to win
Governor Johnson is the winner in also in both North and South Dakota. Charles Curtis carries Rhode Island.

Hiram Johnson
North Dakota 5 electoral votes

Hiram Johnson
South Dakota 5 electoral votes

Charles Curtis
Rhode Island 5 electoral votes

President Underwood candidate for reelection tonight carries Alabama and Arkansas and Florida and North Carolina.

Oscar Underwood
Alabama 12 electoral votes

Oscar Underwood
Arkansas 9 electoral votes

Oscar Underwood
Florida 6 electoral votes

Oscar Underwood
North Carolina 12 electoral votes

Oscar Underwood will also carry Tennessee and Mississippi. He is the winner in New Mexico and Arizona. Charles Curtis the Republican carries Colorado and a big call Charles Curtis carries Michigan.

Oscar Underwood
Tennessee 12 electoral votes

Oscar Underwood
Mississippi 10 electoral votes

Oscar Underwood
New Mexico 3 electoral votes

Oscar Underwood
Arizona 3 electoral votes

Charles Curtis
Colorado 6 electoral votes

Charles Curtis
Michigan 15 electoral votes

Election 1916 coverage continues after this.



Underwood: 207        Curtis: 166        Johnson: 35        266 to win


election '16 coverage
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: the birth of modern america & onward on: October 25, 2014, 10:24:24 am
We are calling South Carolina and Georgia and Virginia for President Underwood. Vermont will cast its electoral college votes for Charles Curtis the Republican.

Oscar Underwood
South Carolina 9 electoral votes

Oscar Underwood
Georgia 14 electoral votes

Oscar Underwood
Virginia 12 electoral votes

Charles Curtis
Vermont 4 electoral votes

President of the United States Underwood is the winner in Kentucky.

Oscar Underwood
Kentucky 13 electoral votes

Indiana is casting its electoral college votes for Oscar Underwood. Ohio will cast its electoral college votes for Charles Curtis.

Oscar Underwood
Indiana 15 electoral votes

Oscar Underwood vs Charles Curtis vs Hiram Johnson
President of the United States of America

Charles Curtis
Ohio 24 electoral votes

President Underwood carries West Virginia. Charles Curtis the Kansas Senator carries Illinois and Pennsylvania and Maine and Massachusetts.

Oscar Underwood
West Virginia 8 electoral votes

Charles Curtis
Illinois 29 electoral votes

Charles Curtis
Pennsylvania 38 electoral votes

Charles Curtis
Maine 6 electoral votes

Charles Curtis
Massachusetts 18 electoral votes
Underwood: 71        Curtis: 119        Johnson: 0        266 to win
President Underwood carries Missouri and Maryland. Charles Curtis the Republican is the winner in New Jersey and Connecticut. Oscar Underwood is also the winner in Delaware.

Oscar Underwood
Missouri 18 electoral votes

Oscar Underwood
Maryland 8 electoral votes

Charles Curtis
New Jersey 14 electoral votes

Charles Curtis
Connecticut 7 electoral votes

Oscar Underwood
Delaware 3 electoral votes


election '16 coverage
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What are Hillary Clinton's weaknesses? on: October 25, 2014, 09:54:55 am
Come the end of a hypothetical Clinton second term she and her husband will have been in public life for 50 consecutive years. Running for a third term for the same party is a problem for her. The thing about it will have been 16 years since running a competitive general election campaign is true too. She got lucky in my opinion anyway in 2000.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: the birth of modern america & onward on: October 24, 2014, 10:16:29 pm
1914 is the first year after the amendment became constitutional or whatever; the amendment entitled the 'popular election of senators.' Meaning Senators beginning in 1914 are elected by popular vote.
Democrat: 56        Republican: 40        49 for majority
A couple of close races out there. Pennsylvania senate in particular sees a margin statewide of under .10 percent of the vote. The house of representatives balance of power after the 1914 election is below.
Democrat: 280        Republican: 155        218 for majority
President Oscar Underwood (D-AL)/Vice President Eugene Foss (D-MA) vs Senator Charles Curtis (R-KS)/Justice Charles Evans Hughes (R-NY) versus Governor Hiram Johnson (I-CA)/Governor Calvin Coolidge (I-MA) Election 1916 Final Opinion Poll
Underwood: 204
Curtis: 256
Johnson: 53
Undecided: 18
266 to win
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: the birth of modern america & onward on: October 24, 2014, 09:52:42 pm
House Majority Leader Oscar Underwood Becomes President Elect Of The United States Oscar UnderwoodOscar Underwood is the winner in Pennsylvania. He that being Oscar Underwood is the President elect officially of the United States.

Oscar Underwood
Pennsylvania 38 electoral votes

Oscar Underwood
President of the United States of America
Underwood: 271        Cutchens: 251        Lafollette: 5        Debs: 0        266 to win

Montana is casting its electoral college votes for President elect Oscar Underwood by about two points. This is Garrison Porter. Thanks for reading.

Oscar Underwood
Montana 4 electoral votes



Oscar Underwood
President of the United States of America

The overseas and absentee ballots are counted in South Dakota and Iowa like they are in all states. In fact South Dakota and Iowa changes their declared winners of the four candidates running for President in their states. Oscar Underwood still wins the election.

Henry Cutchens
Iowa 13 electoral votes

Oscar Underwood
South Dakota 5 electoral votes

Oscar Underwood
President of the United States of America
Underwood: 267        Cutchens: 264        Lafollette: 0        Debs: 0        266 to win


election '12 coverage & results
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: the birth of modern america & onward on: October 24, 2014, 09:15:39 pm
Election 1912 update. Vice President Cutchens carries North Dakota. The conclusion of election 1912 coverage next; back in a moment.

Henry Cutchens
North Dakota 5 electoral votes
Underwood: 233        Cutchens: 255        Lafollette: 5        Debs: 0        266 to win


election '12 coverage
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: the birth of modern america & onward on: October 24, 2014, 06:52:32 pm
Back here at election 1912 central. I will put up the electoral map which shows where the election race between the four candidates stands right now.
Underwood: 205        Cutchens: 228        Lafollette: 5        Debs: 0        266 to win
We are calling Nevada for Underwood. Iowa will also cast its electoral votes for Oscar Underwood.

Oscar Underwood
Nevada 3 electoral votes

Oscar Underwood
Iowa 13 electoral votes
Underwood: 221        Cutchens: 228        Lafollette: 5        Debs: 0        266 to win

Republicans need to hold their breath. We are calling Minnesota for Oscar Underwood. Putting him ever so closer to 266 electoral college votes and the presidency. Henry Cutchens the Vice President is not out of the race.

Oscar Underwood
Minnesota 12 electoral votes

Not yet but it is worth nothing that in a multi candidate election the Democrat usually walks away the winner. I think about the Porco vs Dole vs Perot election race somewhere else. That one looked competitive. Bob Dole staked his chances on the election going to the house of representatives but Porco the incumbent won outright and as I recall pretty clearly.

Perot carried Ohio.

Some good news for the Republicans. Two states go for Henry Cutchens. Henry Cutchens is the winner in Wisconsin and Oregon. Election 1912 coverage continues after this.


Henry Cutchens
Wisconsin 13 electoral votes

Henry Cutchens
Oregon 5 electoral votes



Underwood: 233        Cutchens: 246        Lafollette: 5        Debs: 0        266 to win


election '12 coverage
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: A hypothetical map for 11/4/14 on: October 23, 2014, 09:23:38 am
While I somehow think it possible Senate candidates; the winners on November 4th in Louisiana and Georgia will reach 50%. Every time I think that I remind myself that is pretty unlikely to happen. I do think there is a chance Cassidy will over perform the position the opinion polls have him in right now because of just how Republican Louisiana is. For Mary Landrieu this may well be the worst environment for her to run in that being because of such high Republican registration in Louisiana right now in comparison to 18 and 12 and 6 years ago. She has gotten lucky in both 1996 and 2008 to be running in a year when a Democrat for President had coat tails and really helped her keep her job.
25  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Political Machine Results on: October 22, 2014, 10:42:52 pm
Duckworth: 202        Porter: 336        270 to win
Final Opinion Poll
Tammy Duckworth 48%
Garrison Porter 47%
Undecided 5%
Reality sets in for the Duckworth camp when the returns from the states East of the Mississippi River paint a picture depicting the opinion poll translating itself more in the popular vote than in the electoral college. Tammy Duckworth wins the nationwide popular vote by approximately 1.6 million votes. Often it is he or she who best keeps their cool over the course of the election campaign that is the President. Texas on election day is considered a tossup and Porter opened up a lead at the end of the campaign in California. Garrison Porter begins to open up a lead in the electoral college count when the vote counting moves West of the Mississippi River and he does not look back. Washington state puts him over the top. He did not need California.
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